Setser on the Decline in China's Exports
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CalculatedRisk on Wed, 03/11/2009 - 6:51am (214 comments)
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This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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As China goes...
That's a lot of China.
Who cares.. Citi is making money...
rim shot
Oh my poor exports .. I guess will have to rely on domestic consumption and growth. Suffering all around.
I blame it all on Nixon. If he hadn't opened up relations with China, none of this would have ever happened.
Brad's the man when it comes to China.
House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Commodity Prices
House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Commodity Prices
segmentation fault. null pointer exception.
Little China pall.
I had a drop like that at haleiwa north shore one time and it hurt!
The Wedge at Newport will do that too
Next few weeks will be crucial, let's see where this chart heads : DryShips Inc.
"I blame it all on Nixon. If he hadn't......"
See how the DOW responded after 50/100 days of your fav Presidents:
The Big Picture
Interesting; Reagan's the only one that was 2-for-2
Next few weeks will be crucial, let's see where this chart heads : http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Wasn't this index sub 1000 not to long ago. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it's doubled since I last heard about it.
Only problem with that chart is despite the doubling in the last couple of months, many ships are achored off shore in the US and way too much cargo sitting around docks, i.e. the Long Beach parking lot.
Obama giving cover to earmarks...what a guy.
Obama says earmarks can be "helpful". We should stop demonizing these things they employ Americans and buttress trust funds across the nation...
The "O" is a stupid a-hole. More of the same crap and corruption. Although, I'm sure the O's "believers" can come of with some sort of justification for his incompetency.
thank you for your insightful, dynamic and in depth analysis...the facts and links were especially helpful
I laugh at that fool.
"But we have it contained...to Earth"..... PHeD
damn near broke my neck at sandys
"I am signing an imperfect omnibus bill" -BHO
Really? No? You?
Wasn't this index sub 1000 not to long ago. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it's doubled since I last heard about it.
Exactly. It has doubled, meaning goods are moving again but it looks to have stalled or stagnated around these levels. There shall be no recovery in the real economy if it trickles lower.
Pfffffffffffffffffftttttt!
See my post above. Means nothing w/ships sitting offshore and cars/cargo piling up at places like the Long Beach Parking Lot!
CR,
It would be interesting to see a graph of Chinese imports vs. MEW; or even GDP vs. MEW. Is this something that you can show us?
Ted
Earmarks to private entities bad! public entities OK? What's the difference BHO it is still waste.
Goes with his business bad gov't good mantra. Showing some consistency
Who says that all earmarks are waste. Some of them are very reasonable projects. On proceedural grounds I'm not a huge fan of earmarks, but this broad brush that every earmark is waste is total BS.
Omni-busted!
"domestic consumption and growth"
That made me chuckle...can you say $500 dollar toasters and $10,000 computers....
The advanced ecomony here has historically been extremely dependent on the State...(think semiconductors, communcations, etc...)
I don't know if people can stomach such "socialist" realities...
The private sector has historically only been allowed to take over such endeavors after they've been made profitable by years of taxpayer R&D....(and about that, where are we going to import our brains from this time)
Obama on the teevee. Can I haz a sell signal ?
Former Wall St. Journal editor savages the mainstream media
Today reporters write the stories that their masters want to hear, or they are out. The function of editors is to make certain that no uncomfortable information reaches the public.
UK trade deficit widens to £7.7bn |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
UK trade deficit widens to £7.7bn
Kathryn Hopkins
guardian.co.uk,
Wednesday 11 March 2009 10.48 GMT
Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world widened by more than expected in January as exports to countries outside the European Union plummeted by 16%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the UK's goods trade gap widened to £7.7bn in January, from £7.2bn in December.
The goods trade gap with non-EU countries also rose by more than expected to a record £5.7bn, from £4.3bn in December.
Goods exported to EU countries increased by 5.9% in the month to January, but this was outweighed by a 15.9% plunge in exports to non-EU countries. Exports to the US were down 8.5% in January alone.
Heard on Public radio that a domestic economy is stable and growing. is services, health care. Not growing quickly enough or fast enough to offset declines but the domestic stimulus is working and banks are still making small business and consumer loans
When will China emerge from crisis? | Marketplace From American Public Media
“Obama says earmarks can be "helpful". We should stop demonizing these things they employ Americans and buttress trust funds across the nation...
Ron Paul says that, too. He leads the Houston Congressional delegation in bringing earmark money back to his district. Earmarks pay for lots of important things, some good things, and, yes, sometimes Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens pull down earmarks for bridges to nowhere.
The earmark systems gets things done. Is it efficient? Maybe not. But it is hard to live up to the standard of market efficiency that distributes capital where it is most needed . . . like all that capital raised by banks and hedge funds and invested into CDOs and MBSs that stood behind the efficient housing sector.....oh, wait . . . . let's not look at that. It is the earmark system that is bankrupting the country.
"The bill has at least $5.5 billion in earmarks." -American public radio
$5.5B out of $410B. If my math is correct, that's ~1.34%. BFD.
At this rate i think Soros will be getting ready for another run at the pound...!
China imports down, China exports down, economic news no better than ever. Yet the Dow has spiked because... the feds might give free money to the big banks.
This is a special Darwin Award moment for investors, if there ever was one.
Parabolic rise, peak froth, cliff dive.
I know I've seen that pattern before but just can't place it.
meanwhile, back on topic:
looking at that chart, there is going to be an inventory glut and rising unemployment internationally.
and the diagram noted above ("House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Commodity Prices") says hard times ahead for raw material producers, like Canada.
I do not think we are close to the end of this.
“Parabolic rise, peak froth, cliff dive.
Your forgot "rinse and repeat"
China exports wont rebound quickly but they will stablize later in 2009 and imports will stablize and grow. This chart is a reflection of massive a massive inventory correction going on globally in response to the slowdown. I'm not sure any correlation between imports/exports in China with MEW in the US is all that meaningful. Sure, there is some influence from MEW but there are many other more significant factors influencing those numbers. This is one of the few times that I dont necessarily agree with one of CR's implied correlations. Sorry, but I spend much time in China and do a great deal of business there. The country has massive issues and opportunities, and the government has no issue with spending money on anything/anywhere. They will invest in infrastructure just to show off. I've seen it for 2 decades.
Assuming that the drop in GDP doesn't topple the Govt. of Zhoung Guo.
What does the Chinese government's willingness to invest in infrastructure have to do with Chinese exports? Certainly it would help Chinese imports but since CR's correlation argument concerned US MEW and US trade deficit and not Chinese GDP growth and Chinese exports, you're missing the point.
Johnny Magic :
Neil Young: HuffPost Video Premiere: "Johnny Magic"
Well look on the bright side....
China's savings glut, which according to Bernanke/Greenspan is responsible for a lot of this mess, is going to take a plunge too!
Mustard Seeds!
joe shmoe says:
Ron Paul says that, too. He leads the Houston Congressional delegation in bringing earmark money back to his district. Earmarks pay for lots of important things, some good things, and, yes, sometimes Sarah Palin and Ted Stevens pull down earmarks for bridges to nowhere.
The earmark systems gets things done. Is it efficient? Maybe not. But it is hard to live up to the standard of market efficiency that distributes capital where it is most needed . . . like all that capital raised by banks and hedge funds and invested into CDOs and MBSs that stood behind the efficient housing sector.....oh, wait . . . . let's not look at that. It is the earmark system that is bankrupting the country.
Whew! That was close! I was really sweating that you wouldn't be able come up with some bull$hit to explain the O's latest stupidity.
CR, is this the same Brad Setser from a couple of months ago? LOL
Guest says:
Today, 11:41:46 PM
Damn straight. China will save themselves.
Yes it's all Obama's fault....get over yourselves.
Your ignorance is only matched by your frothing transparency...
Ron Paul: "we need more earmarks"
not only did Ron Paul get more than $90 million of earmarks for his districts, but he defends earmarks openly:
Rep. Ron Paul Defends His Earmarks in Spending Bill - Neil Cavuto | Your World - FOXNews.com
NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: Speaking of a lot of money, the battle about the money they're spending on Capitol Hill and, ironically, this guy is being targeted as maybe spending the most or at least earmarking the most for his constituents. He says it isn't fair.
But we thought it only fair to give him his due and explain what is going on. I'm talking about Texas congressman and former presidential candidate, Ron Paul.
Congressman, the rap is that you're a porker, that — that a lot of pork, $73 million-plus, went to your district. Is that true?
REP. RON PAUL, R-TEXAS: Well, it might be.
But I think you're missing the whole point. I have never voted for an earmark. I voted against all appropriation bills. So, this whole thing about earmarks is totally misunderstood.
Earmarks is the responsibility of the Congress. We should earmark even more. We should earmark every penny. So, that's the principle that we have to follow and the — and the responsibility of the Congress. The whole idea that you vote against an earmark, you don't save a penny. That just goes to the administration and they get to allocate the funds.
CAVUTO: Well, then, who — who — who proposes the bridge or the highway or the school? How does that even get in there?
PAUL: I have no idea. But the most important thing is to have transparency.
If you don't earmark something, then somebody else spends it and there's no transparency. So, the principle of the earmark is very crucial. But we need more earmarks.
Ron Paul speaketh from both sides of the mouth, I see!
We don't need anymore earmarks.
What we need are congresscritter like Andrew Johnson, yes that one! When he was in the house, I believe, he voted no on a bill for money to build a statue or monument to Washington. And no not because he hated him, just didn't feel that was the goobs place, spending money on statues.
Welcome to the third term of the Bush presidency from a financial policy standpoint.
"But hey OVER HERE we got Stem cells....gay marriage and whatever else I can hoist up to take pressure off of continuing to support polices that reward failure".
Ciao
MS
In all fairness, I doubt that either administration liked the choices they were given. It's just that nobody wants to be the one holding the bag when this sucker goes down. If they "really" had better choices, I think they'd have made them. As it is..... I was gonna say something, but I might as well say we're doomed.
joe schmoe
You were too busy apologizing for Obama that you missed the Sarcasm. Its not the money but principle. Obama said he would remove earmarks during the campaign, no one made him say that.
and we had over 200k preforclosures in february (120k final)
things not getting any better.
What happened to the savings glut?
Seriously. Americans create bogus & unpayable credit and spend it on Chinese goods and Bernanke calls it a savings glut? WTF!
Bernanke's (ill)logic works only if you assume that the vast majority of bank credit creation is productive. And what's not productive about a property bubbles private equity bubbles and commodity bubbles?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-foreclosures-hit-record-level/story.aspx?guid={A4C43DFA-9A0E-41CF-AECD-A8FEC114E43E}
article on foreclosures... slowly bleeding we be.
joe schmoe,
I got an earmark from my ex once, courtesy of an old 2 lb cellular phone thrown with great accuracy....Thats why I now live with a chinese girl, she's smart, hot but can't throw worth a damn...
How is she with a butcher knife?
We now have increasing government debt taking the place of increasing corporate, consumer and mortgage debt. The trade gap is down on reduced consumer spending, but still very large. China and other indirect bidders have been very supportive of the US debt habit in recent auctions, allowing us to continue digging a deeper grave.
The biggest factors behind the drop-off in Chinese imports and exports are seasonal, but the economic factors are clear as well. Imports declines are largely a result of reduced cap-ex, which is hurting Japan so badly. It remains to be seen whether we're going through a sharp contraction that would end soon at a more sustainable level, or whether we're still early in a larger downside. Personally, I'm expecting a substantial rise in imports as we move into the summer and a more modest rise in exports.
CR,
Not to be anal (but I will), but a mirror image would imply that the graph would have symmetry, but be reversed?
mirror image
–noun
1. \tan image of an object, plan, person, etc., as it would appear if viewed in a mirror, with right and left reversed.
2. \tan object having a spatial arrangement that corresponds to that of another object except that the right-to-left sense on one object corresponds to the left-to-right sense on the other.
janosik-
It's not his fault at all. It is his fault for continuing to not allow the "dirty" result of capitalism...that is failure for piss poor capital/risk management. In a very short period of time several policies could have been enacted to allow capitalism (and it's punishment of failure) back in to the system. He has not...so it is just a dog and pony show brought to us by his handlers....The Fed.
Ciao
MS
MS don't forget all the jobs that he is saving. Those who get laid off just slipped though his golden fingers. Those who remain working can thank BHO.
Dear President Obama,
Could we please go back to the days when rich people got whatever they needed from government, in a low tax environment, and everybody else could borrow as much as they wanted in order to keep up with the Jones?
Thanks,
Ed
So we cashed out the McMansion (and the prime farmland it sits on) to buy a bunch of cheap plastic crap from China that has no productive purpose.
This has got to have been the biggest misallocation of resources in human history.
I'm no great fan of the Germans, but in my visits there, I always noticed that in prime farm country, the homes and villages were perched on outcrops, and the rolling hills and valleys seemed to be reserved for farmland. This was in central Germany near Fulda Gap.
There are 2, possibly 3 advantages:
1)Farmland isn't wasted,
2)Houses aren't on floodplains, and possibly
3)More defensible from invaders from the East.
I don't know if that was all planned, but it seems more efficient.
Yup - In Europe we always keep an eye cocked towards the borders and the invaders looking at our stuff with their beady eyes; even while our politicians push all that "one world" crap that seems to be required for a cosy job in some international location at taxpayers expense (of course)
What effect is this having on the price of Melamine and Lead? I'm going short on those two commodities.
Could we please go back to the days when rich people got whatever they needed from government, in a low tax environment
Ed, We never left
Setser:
The surge in China’s exports could prove to be as unsustainable as the rise in US (and some European) home prices.
COULD!
Makes one wonder who is going to buy the Obama debt.
The fed.
"Makes one wonder who is going to buy the Obama debt."
No it doesn't. You are.
Tim says "Obama said he would remove earmarks during the campaign"
No, that was the core of McCain's economic policy, not Obama's.
McCain campaigned to end earmarks and boasted of never taking them.
Obama replied that the earmark should be examined to eliminate wasteful and corrupt expenditures, but he did not call to end the system, but to reform it and make it more transparent. he made a point of saying earmarks supported many worthy endeavors. in essence, Obama agreed with Ron Paul, not McCain.
see this, for example: PolitiFact | Spending bill wasn't candidate Obama's "type," Boehner points out
or go back and read the transcripts of some of the campaign debates.
More of the same that you can believe in......
Put this on the tombstone of BRetton Woods 2. Stiglitz was out yesterday saying dollar is done as reserve currency. The question is what does the next paradigm look like: whatever it is it will not innure to the USA - or at least the vast majority of the USA
Don't worry about China because their domestic spending will make up the difference in their export drop........or was that a dream I had, an article I read or.......
Check out GloomBoom.com for some other interesting perspectives.
sms says:
Today, 11:24:10 AM
Wasn't this index sub 1000 not to long ago. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it's doubled since I last heard about it.
From 14,000, dude.
Imagine it's made up based on price quotes by leveraged entities who use their contracts to compose their income stream.
12,000 excuse me.
Chinese officials have indicated that with the substantial drop in exports, their strategy is to switch to a FIRE Economy within 10 years. The U.S. will become the new source of cheap manufacturing.
For me, the bigger picture for banks like Citi is even if they got the government to buy all their crap, what would their revenue model be going forward. Now, I know. Iraq:
U.S. Embassy spokesman Adam Ereli boasts about sending Citibank to Iraq:
Beyond education and culture, in the field of economy and services, it’s worth noting that representatives of U.S. banks, JP Morgan and Citibank and others came to Baghdad on January 28th, participated in an international banking conference that explored correspondent banking relations that would deepen commercial ties between Iraq and the international community, business community. Citibank has already established correspondent relationship services agreement with Iraq’s Warka Bank that allows clients of both banks to execute cash payments, wire transfers and trade transactions to both corporate and retail entities in all Iraq’s cities and provinces.</i>
5.5 Billion in earmarks spread among 300 million Americans = $1.50 per month. Oh the horror! Imminent bankruptcy! /snark
On top of that (as Joe says) earmarks can be good or bad. I saw one frothing post (sorry, don't remember where) listing "wasteful" earmarks from this year but looking at them all were perfectly reasonable. If that was the worst somebody looking for pork could find, there can't be too much bad in this year's bill. I think all the attention to earmarks has chased out most of the true pork that was there from 1998-2006.
For that matter, why was the "bridge to nowhere" so bad? If they had a bridge, it wouldn't be nowhere anymore- Only half snarking;-)
Joe Schmoe
obama said he would go line by line and eliminate earmarks in February. McCain/palin would have been a disaster but BO is not a huge improvement either over the last administration at least not yet
It is amazing how many here are returning to Republican thought--Jon Stewart is right about Cramer--and some here. We used to have a president that got everything he wanted--perfect bills--or perfect after signing statements--now we have a democracy. The last 8 years have been a disaster--and won't be cured in 8 weeks.
Try less snide complaints and more suggestions--not generalities without thoughts of consequences. If you voted for Bushco, you were the problem and not likely to know the solution.
"It is amazing how many here are returning to Republican thought--Jon Stewart is right about Cramer--and some here."
As Josh Marshall at TPM says, the washington media is still wired to the GOP - and depend on the GOP talking points religiously. Krugman noted how MSM neglected to talk with economists who thought the stimulus package was too small.
BTW, funny how NBC circled the wagons for Cramer. I hope Stewart keeps nailing that bastard.
Already proven that Stewie did another editing hit job. Makes sense that you trust a frigging comedian, you clown. Get rid of the left and right wingers! Pot meet kettle! New boss same as old boss! Destroy the Dems and Repubs!
FE, they quickly forgot they set a record with earmarks during that time period...selective memory I suppose.
sardonic, I like frisbee, the last cheap sport...
Tim-my bad, that was sexist so in all honesty she does have a great inside slider...
joe shmoe,
Just another voice here. I enjoy and appreciate your posts. Please keep it up.
and the diagram noted above ("House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Commodity Prices") says hard times ahead for raw material producers, like Canada.
Hard times are already here for raw material producers. Prices for lumber and most ores are way, way, down. I know a lot of lumber companies are in trouble, and purely by accident on a recent trip I heard a bunch of lumber yard owners talking about how incredibly tough times were and gossiping about who was going BK and who was being bought out.
Ron Paul: "we need more earmarks"
not only did Ron Paul get more than $90 million of earmarks for his districts, but he defends earmarks openly:
Rep. Ron Paul Defends His Earmarks in Spending Bill - Neil Cavuto | Your World - FOXNews.com
That interview is crap, Fox news spent more time and money trying to discredit Ron Paul than any other "news" outfit. Did you read this?
This is a rush transcript from "Your World With Neil Cavuto," March 10, 2009. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
It is funny you would cite FOX NEWS (a neo-liberal mouthpiece)as your scource when they say what you want to hear, but dismiss anything they said about the savior.
Prices for ores are down?
Mel
To be specific Obama says govt hides true cost of programs. when asked how much his health care nationalization would cost won't give a ballpark figure. The generalities are coming from government not from anyone on CR
When will we know the Specifics of the bank "rescue plan"?
FOX NEWS is neo-liberal ?????????? On what planet ?
popeye says:
Today, 9:07:32 AM
“FOX NEWS is neo-liberal ?????????? On what planet ?
Planet earth, I live here. you?
CorpWatch : What is Neoliberalism?
THINK and trade well
Fair Econ: Oh the horror! Imminent bankruptcy! /snark
Indeed. But bankruptcy is what we need to reboot the system with new management. I say, quoting GWB's immortal words of 2003 when the real fighting was just starting in Iraq, "Bring'em on!"
To snark or not to snark? Is that even a question?
That makes me appy!
Lunch time! I got a craving for chicken fingers. They taste like Squirrel!
Specifics from the government can change reality and are foolish if not somewhat precise. For example, if patent laws for meds are relaxed, costs to the government will be greatly diminished. Again, Obama must deal with a fractious Senate that can filibuster bits and pieces--and therefore, all he could do is guess if everything broke his way--which it won't.
Keeping AIG alive is very costly but it's death must be a poison pill exponentially. Talking out of your hat is not presidential--and it is not respectable for Bushies to talk about this mess without owning up to authorship.
Aaaaiiiggggg !!!
Anonymous
I would never quote Fox "news" as reporting, except insofar as their "reporting" is part of a political debate or fight that needs to be analyzed.
What I quoted was the transcript of an interview with Ron Paul, in which Ron Paul's words stand on their own.
About the disclaimer on corrections: That is the case with all websites and print, too. Newspapers issue corrections.
Show me that Ron Paul was mis-transcribed and that he thinks earmarks, per se, are bad, and then i will apologize for having mistakenly agreed with Ron Paul on this point.
Show me.
Show me that Ron Paul was mis-transcribed and that he thinks earmarks, per se, are bad, and then i will apologize for having mistakenly agreed with Ron Paul on this point.
Show me.
Here in his own words
Ron Paul on Earmarks | Ron Paul .com
Fox news edits Interviews, and has been known to try to make Ron Paul look like an idiot.
Think Progress » Fox News edits Ron Paul out of AP story.
From Anonymous's link:
Ron Paul sez:
In reality what we need are more earmarks. Just think of the 350 billion dollars that we recently appropriated and gave to the Treasury Department. Now everybody is running around and saying, “We don’t know where the money went, we just gave it to them in a lump sum”. We should have earmarked everything. It should have been designated where the money is going. So instead of too many earmarks we don’t have enough earmarks. Transparency is the only way we can get to the bottom of this and if you make everything earmarked it would be much better.
China's prospects are dim. They have no choice but to invade Taiwan.
Morocco Bama says:Today, 9:19:45 AM PDT
China's prospects are dim. They have no choice but to invade Taiwan.
Without a shot supposedly. The subs will surface and the US will be assumed to be gripped by their bonds unable to do anything for fear of financial reprisal.
At least that's the way the Chicomms imagine the scenario plays out. The US will not "give up" Taiwan no matter the cost. The Chicomms underestimate their opponents resolve being blinded by ideology, surface appearances and more.
For years there we’ve witnessed equipoise and I expect it to continue until it cannot.
Taiwan has long been a more viable entity, economically and politically, than HK ever was. And it remains so, least for now. Sure, so much has depended on the seventh fleet, and will continue to do so. But that’s not all of it, by a long shot.
Outsiders consciously avoid talking about the politics of the Taiwan question when in the mainland. It’s just not worth the grief. And Taiwanese businessmen doing business there have learned the same lessons. I, and they, have been totally neutralized by the blunt nationalism inculcated into almost all mainlanders. And that particular kool-aid has been pretty sweet over the years for Taiwanese, HK’ers and foreigners alike. Beijing has moved governments from around the world in subtle and not so subtle ways to ignore and isolate Taiwan. But there are other reasons, other than real politik, why Beijing should not move rashly.
There are vast gaps (not economic, not strategic) that persist between the political worlds in Taiwan and the mainland—it really is a cultural thing in a way that is hard to describe. But let’s just say that no Chinese polity in history has yet to create as vibrant and free a body of citizens as Taiwan has— it is intoxicating, and Beijing knows it. Taiwan is different, and the difference extends beyond the differences found among the other various provinces of the vastness that is the mainland.
While Beijing could swallow Taiwan at any moment, militarily, they would suffer massive indigestion as a result. I would posit that this stays Beijing’s hand as much as expecting the seventh fleet to show per Eisenhower / Clinton. Or at least this is my dearest hope.
What’s to transpire if the inevitable mainland growth story loses its savor in the midst of a worldwide deflation and downturn in global trade? How do the EU and Japan react? What happens with the huge chits Beijing holds against deficit countries? China’s playing with USN intelligence gathering vessels in international waters. How does Obama react? I do not know. But it’s not just about China as creditor.
So.. as the executive class were busily offshoring our wealth creation, we had to rely on loans from the new foreign engines of production to drive the consumer economy.
Now we've run out of things to hoc the cycle stalls.. hmmm.. funny to think so few actually saw this as a problem at any stage DONT_KNOW
"So.. as the executive class were busily offshoring our wealth creation, we had to rely on loans from the new foreign engines of production to drive the consumer economy.
Now we've run out of things to hoc the cycle stalls.. hmmm.. funny to think so few actually saw this as a problem at any stage "
Ding! Ding! Ding!
Pay the man! We could have been funding all these wonderful ideas we've heard about for the last 30 plus years- oil/banking-banking/oil
Mel
voted Gore Kerry a generalization on your part keep being a cheerleader while the rest of the country waits for specifics...
Mel
voted Gore Kerry a generalization on your part keep being a cheerleader while the rest of the country waits for specifics...
Tim
Show me. Show me that Obama ever said he would eliminate earmarks, as opposed to just "wasteful" earmarks.
First you said Obama promised this in the campaign, and I gave you a link to an article with quotations from the campaign that showed otherwise.
Now you say it was February.
Show me.
I say it never happened, Obama never said he would end or eliminate earmarks.
Prices for ores are down?Ore prices are down from their peak, e.g. bauxite. They are still fairly high historically, which I hadn't realized.
Cinco-horrible.. of course she is great with nun-chucks!
I guess it might be Dryfly or Rob Dawg that is worried about cheating due to the proclivities of an Asian partner.
Forget cell phones,knives and nunchuks, how is she with balls?
Mel voted for Gore and Kerry. That is a generalization on your part. Keep on being a Cheerleader while the country waits for "specifics"
Fair Econ
on raw material producers:
yes, already bad news for them and getting worse, looking bad for the future.
I have been in Canada the past couple of months and contemplate a possible permament move up here (maybe full time, maybe 1/2 time) for the icy winters after many years in SoCal.
The US-C exchange rate has shifted more than 30% in favor of US$ since the meltdown began - largely due to the oil and raw material bust. I think the slide has more sliding ahead of it....
And randomly insanely drinking FINN is back! Man, you Americans are gonna suffer...mightly and with little bit pleasure.
OT-
Black Star Ranch,
I emailed you concern about HR875 to Mother Earth News, and they indicated:
"Thank you XXXXX, a number of people have emailed us about this bill.
Heidi Hunt
Assistant Editor
Mother Earth News
1503 SW 42nd St.
Topeka, KS 66609
(785) 274-4322
www.motherearthnews.com"
I don't know if they're looking into it or blowing it off, but I'd think they'd be concerned, and should be investigating it further, since folks like us who are interested in hobby farming (or more) could potentially be affected in a very adverse manner.
Regards-
"However well-intended, government officials are not positioned to make better commercial decisions than lenders in our communities," he said. - Neil Kashkari
In other news, banks are uniquely qualified at making bad loans. Good work if you can get it!
Don't get me started on flawed logic, lol.
It remains to be seen whether we're going through a sharp contraction that would end soon at a more sustainable level, or whether we're still early in a larger downside. Personally, I'm expecting a substantial rise in imports as we move into the summer and a more modest rise in exports.
Good to see you hear, Rodger.
I expect China to benefit disproportionally from what is happening now because of the dollar's strength. This doesn't mean will do well but that it gains marketshare and is therefore excellently positioned for the future.
Joe Schmoe: +1.
Obama in earmark jam - Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com
"Absolutely, we need earmark reform. And when I'm president, I will go line by line to make sure that we are not spending money unwisely." -BHO
Tim ~ We get it. You don't like Obama. Drop it and add something productive to the conversation. And if has something to do with MEW, China, or trade deficits that would be even better. Especially if had graphs and or charts. Thanks
You can't stand an criticism of Obusha.
ot all earmarks are unwise spending
Tim, Yes I voted Gore and Kerry and Obama--and you voted how? Come on, those that voted R are somewhat responsible--as is Scalia and company. Sometimes you have to rush in the ER--no time for all the protocols. Obama cannot be judged until time has elapsed and the patient is examined. An amputation, or any other drastic decision might have been necessary--or not. Monday morning quarterbacking is fun--but it's foolish before the first quarter is 3 minutes old.
Cinco-
A relative of mine had a bumper sticker on their car (which was sent over from germany) that read "What can they do???...Send you to Fulda?"
He told me that was good for several traffic stops just to see what it really meant..
Ciao
MS
LOL. I guess the local cops were out of touch. Where and when was this?
Dammit get that pinch runner over here......
Nova Scotia News - TheChronicleHerald.ca
TheChronicleHerald.ca
Premier unveils $800m stimulus plan
By AMY SMITH Provincial Reporter
Wed. Mar 11 - 10:33 AM
"A total of $1.9 billion will be spent over three years, creating or maintaining 20,000 jobs, Mr. MacDonald said.
One measure he did reveal was a plan to conduct energy audits on all government buildings later this month and subsequent renovations to make them more energy efficient.
"This creates jobs immediately and pays dividends for years," the premier said."
Opposition Leader Darrell Dexter said he is not comfortable with the plan to add $1.4 billion to the debt — a move he estimates would add $100 million in interest payments on that debt.
"That dramatically affects the ability of future governments to be able to provide services," Mr. Dexter told reporters after the premier's speech. "It will affect everything from health care to the ability to reduce taxes. All of that would be affected by that kind of an increase in the level of operational spending that would have to go into debt repayment."
I voted for Chavez. Giulliani would have made a great president, though.
Some idiot on CNBC just said $75 oil would be great because it would signal DOW 10k.
No one objected.
Thus I revise my target DJIA way down to 5400 in 2009.
I think Denniger's latest projection (about 2 weeks ago)is 3600, so you may still be a little high, but we'll see. What, other than intuition, is the basis of choosing 5400?
Regards-
Slowdown? Are you sure? :-
China policies steer Feb vehicle sales higher
China policies steer Feb vehicle sales higher
| Reuters
A total of 827,600 vehicles were sold in February, up 24.72 percent from a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Tuesday. Vehicle output rose 23.08 percent to 807,900 units.
Passenger car sales in February rose 24.23 percent from a year earlier to 607,300 units, the association said.
"We are gonna ban all earmarks -- the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review."
Business News & Financial News - The Wall Street Journal - WSJ.com
Cinco and BSR,
I actually rec'd an email about that bill out of nowhere from a relative in Atlanta..so the word is out...he's not a farmer either...
...definition of "neo-liberalism": "HORSESHIT"
Oddly, that's the definition of neo-conservatism too!?
"It is funny you would cite FOX NEWS (a neo-liberal mouthpiece)" ... etc
I don't get it guys, why would you watch a FOX or CNBC when you ve got calculated risk & other bloggosphere?
O:-)
It's always important to know what the herd majorities are thinking.
haven't posted in a while - good to see the commentary is as sharp as ever
Tim, exactly right:
“http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19638_Page2.html
"Absolutely, we need earmark reform. And when I'm president, I will go line by line to make sure that we are not spending money unwisely." -BHO
Obama did not promise to end earmarks. "Earmark" only means "using money unwisely" to you and a few others, including John McCain. It does not mean that to me, Obama, or Ron Paul. And remember that McCain, whose main consistent economic platform was a promise to end earmarks, lost the election.
China, are you taking into account your own New Year when comparing January and February car sales? You can't count on Reuters to take cultural norms into account unless (sometimes) they're Western cultural norms.
"China, are you taking into account your own New Year when comparing January and February car sales? "
good point, :-$
JS-KIT eating my posts...
It remains to be seen whether we're going through a sharp contraction that would end soon at a more sustainable level, or whether we're still early in a larger downside. Personally, I'm expecting a substantial rise in imports as we move into the summer and a more modest rise in exports.
Good the see you here, Rodger. Always appreciate your posts.
I expect China to increase global marketshare due to dollar strength and be in an excellent position for the future if they can control internal unrest. Significant protectionist measure may the follow...
Joe Schmoe ... +1
Pettis on deflation in China
Trade, CPI and other numbers came in this week
"I emailed you concern about HR875 to Mother Earth News"
Thanks Cinco-X.....the Mrs. and myself are pretty worked up over it. HR 875 would outlaw the growing of a garden. Imagine that! You wonder what the Hell is wrong with our elected officials! Why would anyone co-sponsor this dangerous piece of crap? If there would be anything that might get me to cleaning my old "blunderbuss", THAT would do it!
Hey! Maybe this is what will get some momentum going for expressing discontent at the way the country is going.
Tim
did you actually look at that WSJ page you linked? It is about O'Reilly and Hannity taking Obama's words out of context and misattributing them to different dates and topics. Click the link oon the page to see the quote in context, and then you see this:
QUOTE from: Like O'Reilly, Hannity misrepresented Obama remark to falsely claim he made a "campaign promise" to allow "no earmarks"
Close quote in context »
In the fifth clip, which was actually taken from a January 6 media availability -- not during the presidential campaign as Hannity suggested -- Obama stated: "We are gonna ban all earmarks -- the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review." However, Obama was referring to his desire to "ban all earmarks" from his "recovery and reinvestment plan," which he specifically distinguished from "the overall budget process." Full Article at Media Matters for America We are gonna ban all earmarks -- the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review.
Before the Panic of '08 hit, China's #1 trading partner became the EU, in terms of exports. I think the dependence of China on American middle class and Walmart shoppers is overstated. New emerging markets for Chinese goods - Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and ultimately Africa - may someday inflate another Chinese export bubble. Was China's export rise ever thought to be sustainable? Wen Jiabao used the word "unsustainable" last year to describe China's economic situation. All part of the big global correction in trade.
More generalizations. He did not specify ban earmarks from what. Joe you're right Transparency in government, fiscal repsonsiblity BHO is the whole package.
We are all Saved. Yay. O:-)
to Anonymous at 9:44
did you look at the Ron Paul speech you posted? Here is what he says: "So, in many ways what we are doing here in the Congress is reneging on our responsibilities. Because it is the responsibility of the Congress to earmark. That’s our job."
Ron Paul thinks that there should be more earmarks. That is what he said in the Fox interview, that is what he said in the Congressional speech you posted.
Does Fox News try to minoritize Ron Paul? Sure. I do not trust Fox News at all as a reporting institution. But that does not mean transcripts of its interviews with Ron Paul or Barack Obama are not accurate transcriptions of their words.
Joe Schmoe,
How do you square this:
Does Fox News try to minoritize Ron Paul? Sure. I do not trust Fox News at all as a reporting institution. But that does not mean transcripts of its interviews with Ron Paul or Barack Obama are not accurate transcriptions of their words.
With this:
did you actually look at that WSJ page you linked? It is about O'Reilly and Hannity taking Obama's words out of context and misattributing them to different dates and topics. Click the link oon the page to see the quote in context, and then you see this:
QUOTE from: Like O'Reilly, Hannity misrepresented Obama remark to falsely claim he made a "campaign promise" to allow "no earmarks"
Close quote in context »
Don't O'rielly and Hannity work for Fox news?
You use them as a source for what you want when you know they misrepresent facts to suit their purpose.
I know R.P.s position on earmarks.
I believe what Ron Paul is trying to address is:
There are 3, read 3 equal branches of governemnt-goes with that "checks and balances" theory. Balance? As in no tyrants....Hail Caesar, see where this is going? The same thing everyone complained about the former admin...
Oh yeah the Stimulus plan was full of earmarks
Democrats Redefine Earmarks for the $787 Billion Stimulus Bill - WSJ.com
"New emerging markets for Chinese goods - Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and ultimately Africa"
Have you looked at the current negative GDP growth in most of Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Gulf?
Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S. Rising sales and production cuts by automakers has caused the nation’s stockpile of unsold vehicles to fall to the lowest in two years last month, the grouping said.
eo-liberalism is like classical liberalism except that the dirty people only get to experience the power of money as a passive observer...
as passive observers
The Dow is forming a "Slinky down the Stairs" formation today if anyone is interested
Fed desperate to fire up global trade. They need China and Japan to have dollahs to recycle into treasuries and the exporters are drying on the vine. When does the madness stop ?
Who cares about trade? China will still grow at 8% this year.. Right?
It will be interesting to start seeing negative growth numbers for China. My guess is that is coming within a couple of quarters.
Chinese consumer prices in February fell 1.6 percent compared to last year. This hasn't happened since 2002.
Brad's the man when it comes to China.
House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Commodity Prices
let's get a little more detailed...
House Prices->MEW->Asian Exports->Asian Reserve Surplus->MBS Purchases->IB Fees & Profits->Lending Frenzy->House Prices.... repeat until broken.
Notice nowhere in there was anything about consumer incomes going up to support the house price increases - just more & sleazier lending. Ooops, small detail omitted I guess.
Is it just me, or does anyone else find it serendipitous that Greenspan in his WSJ article, and Kashkari in his prepared Senate testimony, both warned against "micro-managing" the banks?
I'm sorry, but if you want to convey a nuanced "economic" meaning for the term "neo-liberal" when you use it in reference to a blatantly political entity such as Faux News, then, it is incumbent upon you to be more specific. The end.
Is it just me, or does anyone else find it serendipitous that Greenspan, in his just-released WSJ article, and Kashkari in his prepared Senate testimony, both warned against "micro-managing" banks?
"Is it just me, or does anyone else find it serendipitous that Greenspan, in his just-released WSJ article, and Kashkari in his prepared Senate testimony, both warned against "micro-managing" banks?"
The say nationalize. Then they say don't micro-manage. Can they have their cake and eat it too?
O'Reilly, Hannity misrepresented Obama remark to falsely claim he made a "campaign promise" to allow "no earmarks"
I'm shocked, SHOCKED, I tell you, to think that Fox News actually lies about Obama on their broadcasts.
I thought everything said on the teevee was true.
You sheep are so pathetic. Do you really think that you're any different than the dittoheads? I mean other than the bumperstickers on your cars? Do you?
Andrew Johnson, er ah , you mean Jackso
“The Dow is forming a "Slinky down the Stairs" formation today if anyone is interested
good point probably move lower close at the lowest point
Why is Elmo making unexpected appearance today?
I wonder what happened to all the "decoupling" theorists. Why did anyone ever think that decoupling made sense?
Chinese domestic market was played up quite a bit, and we heard a lot about the new Chinese middle class, chomping at the bits to consume. I don't think it was that hard to get caught up in the China hype/decoupling theories.
The Fed doesn't "micro-manage" anything-- They macro-manage...
Bandit better write another memo ASAP!
Fed desperate to fire up global trade. They need China and Japan to have dollahs to recycle into treasuries and the exporters are drying on the vine. When does the madness stop ?
When we come a lot closer to balancing our budgets [private & public] and make more of our own stuff OR consume a lot less of said stuff. That day will come by choice or by force... sooner or later.
The new (e)CONomy defined:
Principle of explosion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The principle of explosion is the law of classical logic and a few other systems (e.g., intuitionistic logic) according to which "anything follows from a contradiction" - i.e., once you have asserted a contradiction, you can infer any proposition, or its converse.
Any questions?
All news is biased. This shows the need to expand your reading to world news on line. Give this a look pretty much every country in the world.
German Newspapers and News Sites
This AM on bubblevision Leisman had some segment about how Greenspan is claiming his interest rate policies were in no way responsible for the runup in bubble mortgage lending. He put a couple of charts up that showed FF rate vs 30yr. Might as well compare 30 yr mortgages with the weather, since the comparisons are just as relevant.
People were taking int-only/option ARMs not traditional 30s. These people are total idiots.
I have a friend whose ARM (that's whet we're talking about, right?) is about to roll over. He says he's making out due to the lower interest rate.
“WE NEED MORE ANALYSIS ON THE MADOFF PLEA BARGAIN!
Why is this man going to give up the publicity from the trial of the Millennium by pleading guilty to all 11 charges and, diminish into the East? This would be a major boost to the networks as the trial of the millennium being televised 24/7. Think of the add revenues.
If I were Madoff, I would plead not guilty and be remembered throughout time as the having done the greatest ponzi scheme in the history of the planet. If not, be forgotten like the Enron people.
Why is he being forced to plead guilty? Is it because his wife would be skewered and his sons murdered? Is that what he cares about? Or him with his ego, want to be remembered throughout history?
That is the question.
I will give 50/1 odds that Madoff will plead not guilty.
You think i did this for my own benefit? I did this to show you Americans how stupid you have become. Me and my friend and colleague Allan Greenspan devised this elaborate plan to bring down the world ruling elite and show you Americans what has been really going on this past 97 years. You owe us!
Madoff may be able to save face by claiming his motives were for the greater good of the country. That is, if he pleads not guilty and explanations his American hero position.
I wouldn't say that Elmo was unexpected. Based on the first 45 minutes this morning I guessed that the indices were looking like Monday rather than Tuesday.
MP
serendipitous, indeed, and maybe revealing of something going on behind the scenes that is not yet visible on the outside.
the recipient banks complaining about TARP restrictions stand to bring about the unintended (from their perspective) consequence of expanding restrictions, rather than loosening them.....which would be just fine by me.
serendipitous implies a happy coincidence. I think 'surreptitious' might be more apt.
This AM on bubblevision Leisman had some segment about how Greenspan is claiming his interest rate policies were in no way responsible for the runup in bubble mortgage lending.
The more they [AG apologists] argue interest rates didn't play a role the more ludicrous they appear. They could maybe make the case that the rates cuts had an effect but it 'wasn't their job' to tell the public what to do with the easy money - depends on how much you feel big brother should manage people's choices good & bad - but to claim it had NO EFFECT is patently laughable.
Anonymous at 10:22, first of all, take a name or be considered a troll.
Secondly, improve your reading comprehension.
There is no disconnect between (1) a transcript being an accurate rendition of what was said and (2) what was said being filled with false statements of fact.
Anonymous at 10:22, first of all, take a name or be considered a troll.
Secondly, improve your reading comprehension.
There is no disconnect between (1) a transcript being an accurate rendition of what was said and (2) what was said being filled with false statements of fact.
How do you know a transcript is accurate when the transcriber has a known history of misplacing the truth? I guess if they are saying what you want, it's the truth.
If a partisan troll calls you a troll is that a compliment?
Recall the other week about how China's mfg was doing well for third month in row (vs. ISM drop in US). But if exports are continuing down, where are the products going? Who's buying?
I suspect the Chinese government. And if that's the case, what happens when those pipelines are full?
What does the Chinese gov't want with cheap toys and other consumer trinkets?
ille vir:
Specifically, nothing at all with the cheap trinkets. Hell, if it's true that the Chinese government is pushing ahead with production, they're probably burying them in Mongolia for all that I know.
But what they do get is continued employment and a release on social unrest. How long can this continue however?
Cramer on manipulating the market:
YouTube -
Is he up a creek?
China, my apologies. My question was simply wrong in the context.
Ya, but China's domestic auto sales are up 25% yoy
Comrade Kristina says:Today, 10:02:53 AM PDT
The Dow is forming a "Slinky down the Stairs" formation today if anyone is interested
The engorged tick has fallen off the Mortgage Pig's™ left ear. Hoocoodanode?
I like Brad but I still think when it's all done a said for China wins in couple yrs. We'll still be like Japan.
Bond market is diving again.
Madoff says:
You think i did this for my own benefit? I did this to show you Americans how stupid you have become. Me and my friend and colleague Allan Greenspan devised this elaborate plan to bring down the world ruling elite and show you Americans what has been really going on this past 97 years. You owe us.
And we would happy to pay; if, but only if, you actually deliver by actually bringing down the world ruling elite.
Absent that - enjoy prison !
jamie dimon says we are in an economic war to quote buffet -- that is an insult to every veteran in this country.
Dimon has taken to quoting Lincoln -- what a disgrace..
New Thread: Bank Failures and C&D Loans
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Anonymous at 10:22 and 10:45
you've got to be kidding.
1) a transcript of an interview is different from a network talking head "reporting" on events with edited soundclips or selected quotations. The former presents a record of what the interviewee said. That latter presents the view of the talking head.
2) on the specific point of what Ron Paul says about earmarks, he said exactly the same thing in a speech in Congress as he said in the Fox interview.
Ron Paul thinks there should be more earmarks. Simple as that. I agree with him on that point.
And I think McCain's anti-earmark crusade is not only misguided (in terms of economic significance and transparency in budgeting), but also charlatanism in light of the much more serious problems the country faces and in light of his selection of Palin for his ticket.
mp sez: Is it just me, or does anyone else find it serendipitous that Greenspan, in his just-released WSJ article, and Kashkari in his prepared Senate testimony, both warned against "micro-managing" banks?
The propaganda machine always seeds talking points from multiple sources. Business as usual...
Indices just suddenly plummeted around 2:19 ET. Wha'hoppen?
China bought molybdenum mine here and they just laid off all the workers..so commodities may not be there interest right now!
The Dow is forming a "Slinky down the Stairs" formation today if anyone is interested
When it gets to the bottom of the stairs will it juggle itself back and forth between the ist step and the floor?
Re: They might end up being mirror images
>> Joined at the hip (baby)! :-$
Re: Slinky down the Stairs
Very funny, but what about "The Slinky down the elevator shaft"?
The smart Chinese made a BIG mistake to hitch their development wagon almost entirely to exports instead of developing an internal market. Now they will pay the price.
Yes, and the "smart" Stanford MBAs shot themselves in the foot by outsourcing most of our manufacturing base to China...now there is no longer an infrastructure for economic recovery, let alone a war.