U.S. Tax Receipts Cliff Dive to 14 Year Low
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CalculatedRisk on Wed, 03/11/2009 - 12:04pm (127 comments)
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Well that's stimulative, right?
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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Who needs taxes when you can just print the money!
Since I'm first I get to say, have no job pay no tax's.
We continue to squeeze rocks and hope for water...
Which state government will be first to not meet payroll?
CA- if they haven't already
Obama cut taxes 64%!
Farnsworth beat me to it - what would this possibly matter when the presses are running hot?
This must make treasuries buyers hot for more. Adding more and more spending on less and less revenue. Where's the tipping point?
All your posts are belong to us
JS-KIT......Were coming for you with a bot vengance!
What is money? I thought the government is just going to give me all that I need to survive.
like I said...if you make all student loans a bailout then indentured students will pay their taxes..otherwise..watch out!
We had C & JPM come out and celebrate their profitability. Next, AIG... & maybe LEH from the dead ?
“Which state government will be first to not meet payroll?
I vote CA.
April 15
The Ides of April
The Ides of April are on the 13th
"April 15
The Ides of April"
Okay, I am a total geek, but I feel compelled to point out that the Ides only fall on the 15th in July, October, March, and May. Otherwise, they are on the 13th.
We'll see - $11B of 30 years at a reopening tomorrow. Though I worry not - I suspect there's a "gold sales-for-treasury buys" swap worked out with the PRC via the IMF, or some other such backstop. Hillary didn't go all the way over there for nothing.
We had C & JPM come out and celebrate their profitability. Next, AIG... & maybe LEH from the dead ?
they made a profit sending all the tarp money to europe?
Capital One is still financing breast implants. TARP monies at work!
CR
I don't believe the 64% decrease in individual income taxes. That's either a typo, or it's not what it appears to be. For that number to be correct, a very large portion of individual income taxes would have to be capital gains in most years.
If it's really due to changes in capital gains, those loss carryforwards will reduce tax collections for years.
this guy sees what I'm talking about
So let me get this straight.
The US Goverment spent $192.8 bn in february but only collected $87.3 bn in taxes?
Ouch!
What is the Feb individual income taxes reported based on?
because they're not due until April
What is the Feb individual income taxes reported based on?
because they're not due until April
Payroll deductions and payments of estimated tax, I would assume. Most of us don't have the luxury of waiting until April to pay.
Anonymouses, thanks for the replies
I understand the payroll tax, but I was trying to discern by what standard did "individual income tax receipts" fall by 64% in February.
When I mentioned April 15 it was meant to suggest the opportunity for reconciliation between now and final filing day.
So what were the contributions to the decline were from
• deductions, withholding minimizations
• layoffs, job reclassification, unpaid mandatory leave
• lower investment income, other automatically reported transactions
I'm willing to bet Feb is a thin month for work income relative to reported investment earnings
-64% YoY, I won't accept that at face value without clarification (not questioning the data validity, but the assumed interpretation of the figure)
No one has that luxury. If you're self employed, you "have" to pay a quarterly estimated tax, and if you don't do it for too long, you get nailed. And I don't mean that in a good way.
Capital One is still financing breast implants. TARP monies at work!
breast augmentation bailout...dow 50,000\t
in other news Hooters has decided to open 1000 new restaurants
For every dollar the US Goverment spends it has to borrow 54 cents.
This is going to be unsustainable.
26th
You've heard of liquidity traps. We're now falling into a tax trap. They'd better get the stimulus out there, and post haste.
CR,
You've been reading specific and well reasoned topical comments for almost two years now that predicted exactly this event. Why would you exclaim; "Ouch!" when you've had so much time to prepare?
What is the Feb individual income taxes reported based on?
because they're not due until April
You know that guy FICA on your paycheck. Might be due to him and few others that the government gets tax money throughout the year. Americans really are blind to witholding.
Now that is leadership we can belive i
"What is the Feb individual income taxes reported based on?
because they're not due until April"
I read "tax receipts", not "income tax receipts."
Pavel, you missed it then
In February, individual income taxes fell 64% to just $8.7 billion. That's the lowest monthly total for individual income taxes since May 1985.
CDS on treasuries 97 bp earlier this week.
3 execs, 81 cars missing from Nebraska dealership
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Cant sell them might as well act like a banker....
Insolvency, it's not just for banks anymore.
Insolvency, it's not just for banks anymore.
Where have you been while dealers have been dropping by the dozens. Nay, hundreds?
used to be able to right click the comments link and open in new tab....now if you do that, it just reopens CR.com....anyway to make that work? OR am I stuck with a popup box.
Look around you. The world goes on, and most of it doesn't use money:
THE BRIGHT FULL MOON
My little wren
Fine gentleman
Brown frock coat
And vest of tan
All new and clean
To what devote
Those whistled notes,
What do you mean?
I’m off
Farewell
This fine spring day
God chose
These fine new clothes
My little tune
The bright full moon
Tonight
\t\t
\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\tMarch 11, 2009
I suggest that CR institutes a $1 tax for each snarky comment. We could fix the deficit pretty quickly.
Should ee assume that your check is in the mail?
[ In February, individual income taxes fell 64%]
Look, if you knew you were going to fall off a cliff and break your leg...do you think when you hit the ground you wouldnt still yell, OUCH, or something more profane?
So by all means,let's pass a budget that has 8% growth in spending at 8000 earmarks.
Once Mugabe Jr. starts taxing the living s@it out of those rich bastards, we should be OK.
I'd like to find the income tax data per citizen, adjusted for inflation. It would be interesting to see when it was last this low.
Could this information be used to measure real employment decline?
Probably not, since a lot of S type corporations report their income as income tax through their shareholders. I suspect that many aren't making money, and those that are are using their income as a loan, since those are also hard to come by.
Looks like the rest of America is on the Timmah Turbo Tax bandwagon. People are starting to hide the money.
I have the market-based solution in hand! Can the United States short its own tax revenue?
Hmmmm...my last comment got swallowed.
Any way we could see this in per capita numbers, adjusted for inflation? I'm looking for the data at BLS and other .gov sites, but can't quite find what I'm looking for.
hey'd better get the stimulus out there, and post haste.
At this point is it just giving more alcohol to the drunk? It is killing him but at least he can function. What stimulus makes sense? Not trying to push buttons I just do not understand what is a viable solution.
Rally Fizzles as Stocks Head South- AP
Wall Street Struggles to Extend Rally- AP
Wall Street Turns Positive in Choppy Trade- AP
all within last ten min, rofl
=-O
Look, we're in trouble in this country.
Only one way out -- CUT TAXES -- bring the whole sucker down -- are you happy now George?
Soros?
I thought low tax rates increased tax receipts!? You mean to tell me Rush Limbaugh has no idea what he's f-cking talking about?
i hate the cr comments...this crap is basically unusable now. GRRR
Look for the Social Security and Medicare horizons until "break even" year to start coming in real fast. Within 3-4 years, they both could be in the red.
I'll bet payroll tax revenues (OASDI and HI) are dropping as fast as general revenues.
Medicare is already running in the red, rich.
Is this blamed on corporate incomes dropping or even being eliminated entirely in the US?
I recall that the S&P 500 posted losses per share for the first time ever.
"Pavel, you missed it then
In February, individual income taxes fell 64% to just $8.7 billion. That's the lowest monthly total for individual income taxes since May 1985."
Looks like I did.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the U.S. can rescue its banking system by year-end if U.S. officials start cooperating and refrain from the “vilification” of corporate America.
Dimon Says System Can Be Saved If ‘Vilification’ Ends (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Blow me Jamie you need to have qa hot poker shoved up your ass.
Trance - nice handle and avatar
Actually 24 year low
someone upthread was interested in tax receipts adjusted for inflation and per capita
you can get receipts and outlays over the years from the CBO (cbo.gov), inflation data from the Fed (federalreserve.gov), and population data from the Census (census.gov)
Kind of an ominous statistic, no? Maybe that's why my eyes skipped over the words 'individual income.'
Do you think they could rent out the National Mall for entertainments and picnics?
I bet a fair amount of what little was collected (in income taxes) will have to be refunded. Self employed pay an estimated tax. If you are paying taxes based on 2007 earnings then 2008 taxes might be a wee bit lower for many.
Raises hand
Dimon Says System Can Be Saved If ‘Vilification’ Ends (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Dimon Says Banking System Can Be Saved If ‘Vilification’ Stops
By Elizabeth Hester
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the U.S. can rescue its banking system by year-end if U.S. officials start cooperating and refrain from the “vilification” of corporate America.
March 6, 2009
Dear Congressman:
As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has identified a
number of federal assets that could be sold, leased, licensed, or otherwise
conveyed to raise revenue.
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10015/03-06-KindLtr.pdf
JPM's PR email...
Global Media Relations
Joe Evangelisti
joseph.evangelisti@jpmchase.com
vilify away:)
Pavel, Maybe the Washington Mall can be reclassified as grazing land to generate profits while cutting landscaping costs
March 6, 2009
Dear Congressman:
As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has identified a
number of federal assets that could be sold, leased, licensed, or otherwise
conveyed to raise revenue.
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10015/03-06-KindLtr.pdf
OT:
Another libel victim of the Jewish Smearbund, Retired Amb. Chas Freeman, said yesterday that he no longer accepts an offer to chair the National Intelligence Council. He had this to say:
"The libels on me and their easily traceable email trails show conclusively that there is a powerful lobby determined to prevent any view other than its own from being aired, still less to factor in American understanding of trends and events in the Middle East. The tactics of the Israel Lobby plumb the depths of dishonor and indecency and include character assassination, selective misquotation, the willful distortion of the record, the fabrication of falsehoods, and an utter disregard for the truth. The aim of this Lobby is control of the policy process through the exercise of a veto over the appointment of people who dispute the wisdom of its views, the substitution of political correctness for analysis, and the exclusion of any and all options for decision by Americans and our government other than those that it favors."
Freeman speaks out on his exit | The Cable
I see J-People.
These comments are abysmal. Comment cleaner, please.
Wall Street bonuses are paid in February. This is the crux of the decrease.
I'd also believe that self employed folks are putting up a tax revolt or "going Galt" and simply not working as hard.
Dividend cuts and capital gains could be a small part of it, but I doubt it's that big. People who trade often or have big accounts have to file income taxes quarterly. Their year end selling might have showed losses for December, paid (or deducted) in February.
thanks for the great answer westwest888
I thought Feb would be big bonus wise but I wasn't sure
Still waiting for monthly tax receipt data for California. They're running a few days later than usual on the release...
Capital One is still financing breast implants. TARP monies at work!
Good to know some of it is going to good use.
You've heard of liquidity traps. We're now falling into a tax trap. They'd better get the stimulus out there, and post haste.
I was thinking the same thing 'tax revenue trap'... we'll all be working for 'uncle'.
What is "liquidity trap"? Explain in simple language, thanks.
A liquidity trap is a situation in monetary economics in which a country's nominal interest rate has been lowered nearly or equal to zero to avoid a recession, but the liquidity in the market created by these low interest rates does not stimulate the economy. In these situations, borrowers prefer to keep assets in short-term cash bank accounts rather than making long-term investments. This makes a recession even more severe, and can contribute to deflation.
I'm paying quite a bit more in taxes this year. Maybe the government should be a little more respectful of shorts. Can you imagine how much worse it would be if capital losses weren't limited to 3,000?
Liquidity trap - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hilarious fall in tax receipts (I have been tracking this metric for a few years now, for Federal, California, and Florida).
Eminently predictable.
Sell your home, short the market, and buy gold, folks.
SRS went straight up in last 5 minutes...Fade the gap tomm?
I'd also believe that self employed folks are putting up a tax revolt or "going Galt" and simply not working as hard.
That would be me - it isn't an 'optional revolt'... more like playing the cards I've been dealt. Personally I'd LOVE to pay more tax... implying I'd love to have the income to pay tax on. The earning potential just in't there right now so 'native' I go...
I love this! I can't wait to hear the It's not my fault excuses from OB and Gang! This just popped up, we had no clue this would happen when we pissed away trillions hidden as a stimulus package. We will need more. LOL suckers!
Ummm...wow.
WAWAWA says:
Today, 3:57:45 PM
What is "liquidity trap"? Explain in simple language, thanks.
Nobody who is creditworthy wants to accept new risk. Nobody who wants to accept new risk is creditworthy.
You can have unlimited funds for lending and have them go unlent.
Is obama out of change?
Rosenberg stated a month or so ago that many forms of compensation are of the type that do not recur every week, they occur on an irregular basis - go ahead, call them bonuses if you like - many of which only occur in Q1, so I think a good portion of the FEB drop of 64% could be attributed to that
There has long been a total disconnect between tax receipts and spending. Buy hey, deficits don't matter.
I bid 1 quadrillion quatloos on the bearded one from Princeton.
Taxe revenues cliff dive . Mkt indices to resume cliff diving after leaks from the next (no) jobs report .
Just work in the underground economy like me. It's a lot more simple, taxes...what are taxes?
OK...So that's not quite Depressionary on one month's data point but will that be the same when it remains by Jan 2010?
Thanks CR,
I've been waiting for a discussion on this subject.
I love how Obama keeps talking about "fiscal responsibity"- and then adding how he will ensure it is accomplished in the NEXT pork filled spending plan or bailout.
Rosenberg stated a month or so ago that many forms of compensation are of the type that do not recur every week, they occur on an irregular basis - go ahead, call them bonuses if you like - many of which only occur in Q1, so I think a good portion of the FEB drop of 64% could be attributed to that
Debt and Taxes.
So, we're spending more than we're making. Isn't that how we got in this mess?
Rosenberg stated a month or so ago that many forms of compensation are of the type that do not recur every week, they occur on an irregular basis - go ahead, call them bonuses if you like - many of which only occur in Q1, so I think a good portion of the FEB drop of 64% could be attributed to that
Before things change for the better, things as they are have to get really, really bad. There may be a brighter day just beyond the rainbow, but in the meantime we're all collateral damage.
Rahm Emmanuel's now well-known quote ("Never let a good crisis go to waste") is very arrogant. They are letting one go to waste, because they think to small and listen to the wrong counselors (although I heard Emmanuel himself was at least in favor of nationalizing banks).
But when "preserving the system" turns out to be trillions gushing into the pocket of the rich while the country falls apart: then that will be a crisis to not let go to waste. If Obama has the cohones for it. He's got another 10-11 months to prove it.
I did some envelope math. Based on the decreases, the total dollar amount, and the dollar amount indicated for individual income taxes, the decrease in individual income taxes made up almost the entire decrease.
The decrease in all other taxes was only 3%, which is basically flat. That doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I hope the last 2 go down as the biggest failures in the history of the Presidency and the other Congriscritters and SATANators, as well. That does me we follow suit...but were there already. So, I want those with blood on their hands to be called out. Purge the Evil from among you...says the LORD.
7K=denied
Anybody home? Where are you people!
"Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., said the U.S. can rescue its banking system"
Most perps go screaming into the night..
Rosenberg stated a month or so ago that many forms of compensation are of the type that do not recur every week, they occur on an irregular basis - go ahead, call them bonuses if you like - many of which only occur in Q1, so I think a good portion of the FEB drop of 64% could be attributed to that
It was. I pay my 'bonus' in Feb every year [to myself]... but regardless the companies have to be making money to fork out bonuses [or at least hiding the fact they aren't making money and borrow it]... whatever - it isn't happening and the pump is running dry & seizing up. It won't be as bad in the months to come [from a percentage basis] but it is going to be bad.
What do you bet the result will be to 'broaden' the tax base... meaning OB's promise to not take a nickle from Ma & Pa under $200K get's broken? If the high rollers who pay out in bonus & stock option aren't high rolling then uncle will have to look somewhere else.
If they are going to 'broaden' the tax base maybe some brave wonk will suggest a VAT - regressive sure - but if we are all in the 'regressive tax brackets' now does it matter how they 'regressivize' us? Just a rambling idiot thought.
New Thread: State Unemployment Rates
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/state-unemployment-rates.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Just a rambling idiot thought.
dryfly | Wed, 11 Mar 09 15:18:07 -0500
Sorry i posted as I heart CR Bot the Rosenberg posit....this thing sux....
It's not idiotic, it has to happen to maintain the ever growing ponzi. Did ya really think shared responsibility was anything other than the opening to higher taxes for all. tax rate in '38 rose 88% IIRC
I'd also believe that self employed folks are putting up a tax revolt or "going Galt" and simply not working as hard.
Ah, yes, the trickle-down canard being hustled once again.
In my many years I have come to a conclusion that one useless man is a shame, two is a law firm and three or more is a congress.
–John Adams
breast augmentation bailout...dow 50,000
B cups will be the new D cup.
I can't find my S corporation!
Taxes as a source of revenue is so 20th century.
Bammy's going to have to raise the top marginal tax rate on the rich to 150%. Go Bammy!
With revenues dropping by this much, Obama's budget estimate is wayyyyyy overly optimistic. Buckle up all. We're going to drown in treasuries.
Legalize and tax prostitution. Uncle Buck could balance the budget with just the actions in Washington DC.
HMMMMMM... I wonder what would happen if everyone all of a sudden changed their withholding to the max. amount?????
How much farther could it fall??????
First quarterly is due around the same time as the balance of 2008, so we'll all be doing our part in about a month.