gasoline sales should NOT be included, EVER. So many miss this. :-E
Amazing that when gasoline sales have a positive influence, they're not discussed in any salient manner, yet when they have a negative influence, oh man, they're front and center to point the public's attention to that fact.
My guess is if you tracked retail during the last depression, just like the DOW, you would also see the same graph. Down-ward trend, pauses in decine, even little up-ticks, but further downward progression.
The sheer number of store fronts to consumers is still too high. This will adjust further down, but numbers I'm sure will look better as stores consolidate (increasing in store sales) and as less competition (ditto).
I've been shopping more, because I see 50-70% off sales and I'm replacing items which are 10-15 years old. Once this little exercise is over, I'll probably shut the checkbook for another 10 years except for the weekly beef and America's finest IPA.
Retail sales are up because everything and I mean everything is on sale. Good luck to retailers who try to increase prices in this environment. We will still see a lot of retailers go belly up this year and next.
Ditto. I think that's paraphrasing Cervantes, actually. Although will the amazing sorts of retail price breaks I've been seeing around, I can imagine sales might trend up. It is easier to make sales when you're giving it away.
This seems like a euphemistic use of "stabilization" though. If you skydive and your parachute doesn't open, we don't call the abrupt stop at the end "stabilization." I think we call it something else...
On another note, as it is being bantered in the public sphere, if Fedgov simply did a Prohibition Type Repeal on all currently Illicit narcotics, retail sales would go through the roof, and generous taxes would create a nice revenue flow into the Fed & State government coffers. I'm rather suprised CA hasn't seriously done the math. Reject all Fed funding or incurr rejection of Fed funding to the state for entirely legalizing and normalizing the drug industry, and replace and excced revenue lost with revenue gained from the taxes.
FAIRFIELD, Conn., Mar 12, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Standard & Poor's (S&P) today announced a single-notch downgrade of General Electric Company's and General Electric Capital Corporation's (GECC) long-term ratings from AAA to AA+, with a "stable" outlook. The ratings downgrade does not affect GE's and GECC's short-term funding ratings of A-1+, which was affirmed by S&P. The action follows a thorough review of GE's portfolio by S&P.
CA and all the states that border Mexico, are crazy not to legalize marijuana...as the drug wars there are now crossing in the States, there is every motivation to legaiize...taking the profits from the gangs. Tax revenues are a plus. And lowered prison popuation and attendant costs a double plus.
but the sales figures are still seasonally adjusted. That can create monthly anomalies, especially across the new year where there's plenty of evidence that consumers pushed holiday purcahes from December to January.
And the scam of how those sales numbers were pulled in front of the corpse of GE to keep people from canceling pending buys in the premarket is the story of how the stock market really works, kids.
True. And you read the description of GE as a "highly diversified company" you'd think their exposure to a cratering market was negligible and hedged, as though systemic economic failure were itself isolated to that small portion of our economy, you know THE ECONOMY.
In today's world, not horrible is good. I agree with CR that it's a decent report. Even if prices are low, it shows merchandise is moving which means either inventory is going down (good) or there's production of goods taking place (also good).
I don't view this as the end of our troubles, just a glimmer of hope in a sea of despair.
They're not. You just need to look at sales tax receipts in each state. Gasoline sales pushed retails sales higher, detracting from discretionary purchases. NOT good but spun nonetheless by the brain dead main stream media and the worst offender, CNBS.
"Retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, but have been stable the last 3 months!"
How about: "Your mom went into a coma, but she seems to be stable now."
a 10% decline in sales and with it a 10% decline in GDP is about equal to the excess caused by a 0% savings rate (assuming it goes back to 8%)and MEW of about $500bn.(going to zero). Given the decline in employment down 9% is consistent with a savings rate of about 5%. If consumers don't save more (unlikely an addiction is a hard thing to kick) and MEW doesn't turn negative we can bounce around at this down 10% YOY for a bit.
This country is really at a significant crossroads. Perhaps one of the most significant. If the Obama admiistrations policys fail, what is the probable outcome?
15 to 25% unemployment
massive bank failures
savings and pensions wiped out
followed by
The USA defaults on all, or most, of its obligations
Dollar no longer the reserve currency
Inflation, the really ugly kind, or deflation the really ugly mean spirited type
followed by
Social displacement
which leads to
disorder, etc
If the Obama admin fails then they also may end up labeled as the ones that "destroyed America." Stabbed us all in the back in favor of the rich and powerful.
That kind of social disruption can take generations to work thru
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pushed Group of Seven officials to soften criticism of China last month, according to a person briefed on the matter, after his accusation that the nation was “manipulating” the yuan strained ties with the U.S.’s second-biggest trading partner. Geithner Said to Push G-7 to Ease Criticism of China (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Hillary doesn't want to have to go back over there on her hands and knees begging again. Hhhaaaaaaaaa
It's the exports alone, it's the fact that China is diverting more than a trillion to its own infrastructure projects, money that is not borrowable to us for our projects.
What are the number for all durables? I haven't seen gas go up here, it's been flat within a ten cent range for a couple months. If it is largely autos and other durables that are on the wane, that supports the idea that this is a crisis of credit and that the way to resolve the problem is to address the credit issue.
It would seem that rail shipment data would support these claims of a stabilizing retail environment. Intermodal traffic is down half of what it was last week (~12% vs. ~27%).
Ok, looking at the detail, the specific retailers that are down besides auto dealerships are Furniture/Furnishings and Electronics/Appliance and Building/Garden Supplies. All consistent with credit issues.
This was pretty much priced in for short/med term paper (I bought some on Monday) and the new 40B is government backed so there should not be much movement.
stabilizing at down 30-40% vs LY is not sufficient to keep most retailers alive. There is simply no way to adjust expenses quickly or dramatically enough to regain positive cash flow. The other big problem is vendors can not adjust products to a lower sale price or a higher margin fast enough to keep up with consumer demand. The result is more discounting at lower margins.
I have retailers asking for 65% plus markups vs. mid 50s last year.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with retail mark ups, 65% translates to a $35 cost for a $100 retail item. They are basically planning to sell the item at 25% or more off and want the vendor to cover the cost of the discount.
At this pace a dramatic decrease in product quality and innovation are coming to a store near you.
My business saw stablization in February. We also completed our staf reductions in December (although they probably got recorded in Jan/Feb due to severence). We have too little inventory for even current demand but expect to continue to run the business that way. The same can be said for staffing. We have the remaining workforce working more hours per head than we did 12 months ago. If we continue to run at the current rate or even 20% lower we will continue with our current headcount. In the event we see any material pick up in sales we will need to add more staff and probably significantly increase our inventory. While I dont see that happening, it actually appears to be a possibility based on what I'm seeing and hearing. I would have never thought that 3 months ago.
Gas prices rise 8.5% m-o-m. Headline should read: "Soaring Energy Prices Drive Recovery."
Couldn't agree more. In fact two weeks ago I saw drop in WoW retail sales that rivaled the decline seen the last week of Sept 08. Last week was no better.
What is that smell? Accountability? Someone might do something about the criminals still being in charge? That would restore a little bit of my confidence.
New flash this morning regarding a bump in foreclosure notices caught the political and financial mob bosses off guard as they expect the MOD programs to be significantly cooling the crisis. The MOD program only impacts owner occupied and a large number of vacation and rental properties are being cut loose. Add MOD re-default rates plus the FHA subprime loan program and its clear any government program attempting to slow foreclosure rates will fail.
Sales are in the toilet because nobody has any money - pure and simple. 5+ million people are totally unemployed, 5+ million underemployed, and another 5+ million who will never show up on any reports (1099 people) these are people who spend all their time in front of a 'puter, a TV, or on a bar stool. In the past many of these would be out protesting their woes, but now they sit at home, smoke dope, or medicate themselves with little tiny pills instead. The dummy cures advocated for the ailment are more of the same ailment: Lets legalize a "dummy-drug" that everyone uses anyway - lets make legal an easily grown crop that will decrease in price by 95%, Then the hoped for taxes will evaporate, the teen & adolescent usage will skyrocket (but they WILL be visually happier with a 1.5 grade point average).
Better yet, lets get the FedGov to start producing "soma"....... "..there is always soma, delicious soma, half a gramme for a half-holiday, a gramme for a week-end, two grammes for a trip to the gorgeous East, three for a dark eternity on the moon..." as Huxley so eloquently described.
"IMO the real bezzle with Madoff is why the SEC backed off. This jail perp walk does not get to the heart of the matter."
What backed off?
There was no plea deal.
There's not really a whole lot of leverage they have.
It's clear he's going to take the fall for everyone, and if anyone else gets charged, he's going to appear as a defense witness and say "they didn't do it".
Since he's already going to die in prison, what, exactly would you have the SEC do differently?
The SEC screwed up for the last 20 years.
If the SEC goes after the other family members, they're doing the right thing at this point. BTW, if Madoff appears as a defense witness and doesn't have hard 3rd party documents to prove what he says, what makes you think anyone cares what he says? His political allies can only do so much for him now.
"BTW, if Madoff appears as a defense witness and doesn't have hard 3rd party documents to prove what he says, what makes you think anyone cares what he says?"
Well, the SEC needs to come up with hard facts themselves, otherwise it's going to be "he said, she said", and the defense only needs "reasonable doubt".
The SEC will indeed have some constructing to do. If these supposed low level employees confirm they only had contact with Papa Madoff and not the rest of the family, that whould help exonerate them. I have a feeling that the low level employees are going to confirm that they had lots of contact with the rest of the family or that the low level employees weren't really involved in the tasks Madoff is saying they were. The concept that Papa acted alone doesn't pass the smell test.
"The concept that Papa acted alone doesn't pass the smell test."
Oh, I agree.
It's just going to be really difficult to prove that without Bernie's cooperation, and that's why this "no deal" guilty pleas is so damaging to the SEC.
....and then you have the FedGov idiots dealing/not dealing with Madoff. What a joke. The biggest heist in history (excluding the banks), and you'd think the FedGov would want to know how he did it. How he got away with it for so long. Instead, they'll deal with him like they dealt with Joe Conforte - with ignorance and stupidity.
Federal agents this morning are searching the Judiciary Square office of Washington, D.C.'s Chief Technology Officer.
The search is part of "an ongoing investigation," said a spokeswoman for the FBI's D.C. Field Office, Lindsay Gotwin, said. She declined to comment further.
The outgoing Chief Technology Officer, Vivek Kundra, was appointed last week Chief Information Officer by the Obama administration. His last day at the city government office was February 4, a spokeswoman for D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, Leslie Kershaw, said.
"We know the FBI is over there but that's all we know," said a staffer in the D.C. CTO's office, Mario Field, who was working from a separate location. Another source familiar with the raid said the FBI had sent all staffers other than senior executives home for the day.
A White House spokesman had no immediate comment.
D.C. mayor's spokeswoman Kershaw said, "Our office has been alerted of FBI's being at CTO office, but we cannot comment until it's over and we get more details."
dUCKdUCKgOOSE says:Today, 7:56:49 AM“BHO will be embroiled in some kind of damming controversy before his 4 years is up. He's way too liberal not to be.
versus all those damning controversies that those way too conservatives are able to avoid? I see you took your partisan hack pills this morning.
Are you saying we should illegalize alcohol and prescription meds?
Yeah, come on Black Hat, why not make any mind or body altering substance illegal. Let's pump up that police mentality so that we have to send in urine/blood samples every week to proclaim our sobriety.
Whatever...this is just noise in the downward trend.
The retail sales numbers do not reflect the majority of the recent job losses nor the future job losses. It's a vicious cycle that we're just beginning to enter. The import-driven, consumer-borrowing-based retail economy IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. The home ATM is permanently closed for most people.
The BIS says derivatives went from 1 Trillion to 1.28 Trillion, and the best part is that it's 95% on margin. Stabilization in retail sales is an anomoly, or at this point maybe it's seen s a national security issue, and they will publish whatever they like. By the way, we are going no where fast when you look at the latest M1 Money Multiplier. You can spread fiat around as much as you like, but it's the turnover that makes the world go round boys and girls.
--
Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble.
What bubbles giveth bubble-bursts taketh away.
There must be a lesson soemwhere for the Fed policymakers but when the next bubble arrives they would find justification for the bubble. They serve the Crooks and bubbles are great for the Crooks.
Popeye -
Great post. Thats why the markets of the early 30s wiped out both the uber-bears and uber-bulls. Thats what happens. A vicious bear market rally will wipe out anyone who has been greedy on the short side. I have a feeling thats most posters in the comments these days....
Criminals paid to buy houses in new 'builder bailout fraud'
Independent.ie
By Shane Hickey
Thursday March 12 2009
"In the 'builder bailout fraud', scam-artists create fake personas to take out mortgages, then buy unsold properties at a vastly inflated price."
"The mortgage is then never repaid and the bank is left with an over-valued property."
"Yesterday the head of the CAB revealed that the scam, which has become common in the US, is now being investigated in Ireland."
Black Star Ranch says:
Today, 10:40:20 AM “Sales are in the toilet because nobody has any money - pure and simple. 5+ million people are totally unemployed, 5+ million underemployed, and another 5+ million who will never show up on any reports (1099 people) these are people who spend all their time in front of a 'puter, a TV, or on a bar stool. In the past many of these would be out protesting their woes, but now they sit at home, smoke dope, or medicate themselves with little tiny pills instead. The dummy cures advocated for the ailment are more of the same ailment: Lets legalize a "dummy-drug" that everyone uses anyway - lets make legal an easily grown crop that will decrease in price by 95%, Then the hoped for taxes will evaporate, the teen & adolescent usage will skyrocket (but they WILL be visually happier with a 1.5 grade point average).
Whereas you have accumulated many more possessions to be robbed of by your betters or by the reaper. Aren't you clever! Too clever by half!
BSR-Just because you smoked it before and don't like it now doesnt mean it has no redeeming aspects. I would hate to see my friend with MS suffer without it, she has tried everything under the sun legal to try to sleep and live without pain. It's not a facillitator for other drugs! Thats bullshit!
Your laziness connection is more of that, I know I could whip most amatuer golfers while smoking it, surfed huge north shore under it, drive better than 99.9% of drivers after smoking it and have seemed to run my own business out of a house for the last 10 years without any issues. Landing fortune 500 accounts!
Concentrate your agenda on Meth, Crack, Coca, Ice, Heroin, Oxycontin, Extascy and alcohol if your trying to stop laziness and addiction...
IMHO, and after decades of empirical observation, the most extraordinary effect of chronic marijuana usage is to render the user incapable of perceiving that chronic usage has negative effects.
Have you read the Markopoulus letter. Give me a year and I a born and bred dope could have put a case together. Again why did the SEC back off when they had info. IMO phone calls were made among the PTB.
tons of layoffs and furloughs from late January onward still haven't been felt strongly in the retail section. It's coming. Purses can shut a LOT tighter than they are currently shut.
???. I thought BSR made two good points in his comments:
Sales are down because a lot less people have discretionary income to spend. I agree. It's obvious.
Legalizing drugs isn't the answer. With regard to income and thus to sales, that seems true. I would prefer to see marijuana legalized and imprisoned drug users released, but there are cogent arguments that can be made that the overall effect on society would be negative.
IF BSR was saying that the lack of income and thus sales is because a lot of people are on drugs all day, then I disagree with him, but I didn't get that from reading his comment.
Would we not benefit by reallocating the resources targeting marijuana to something more productive? Would there also be benefits from removing a cash crop from the thugs making Mexico miserable?
My broker who is affiliated with Raymond James just called me. Effective today RJ is no longer trading 2x and 3x times funds (long and short) due to performance issues.
"I know I could whip most [amateur] golfers while smoking it, surfed huge north shore under it, drive better than 99.9% of drivers...."
.....the point in regards to pot was, the "help" that is hoped for by legalizing it will be shown such as I described. The biggest detriment has been the fevered advocacy by users (you are an example), and the prospects that more kids will smoke it. Even THEY know it's a "dummy-drug". Ask them.
Rep Kanjorski seems to be endorsing suspension of mark to market.....and using FDA suspension of rules to permit use of a new treatment for pancreatic cancer as the model for FASB suspension.... all about helping people.
Stabilization...agree...my company reports to the census bureau and as I reported last week we have stabilized for a couple of months now...just saying...
Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble. - Jas
Exactly. Emptied out the home ATM pretty well they did over those 5 years.
And the steep decline was when people - all of a sudden and almost in unison - woke up to the fact the bubble was over & in their own world, unsustainable. Even dopes aren't always stupid.
Now consumers are into a more orderly consumption pattern that is likely to also not be fully sustainable in the near term as job losses and the need to pay off debt & back fill savings erode consumption further - but it isn't likely to be another steep cliff dive unless we get another big shock - like the total credit freeze up we had last fall.
I've been trying to figure out what the next shock might be - I really can't think of something quite as disruptive as Lehman BK unless it could be a Citi BK. The PTB seem determined to manage that 'collapse'. More like a controlled implosion filmed in slow motion.
GM & Chrysler BK? A lot more job loss for sure but heavily regionalized into parts of the country already hit hard so might only have an incremental hit to consumption nationwide.
My guess is sales & PCE have 'stabilized' but at a persistently lower level. Not good news but not terrible either. Like being moved from ER to ICU... not going home anytime soon.
"My guess is sales & PCE have 'stabilized' but at a persistently lower level. Not good news but not terrible either. Like being moved from ER to ICU... not going home anytime soon"
Dryfly, I agree with you. I think you've got it. We'll be down here for awhile, but I think we know all of the blockbuster bad news out there right now. What we don't know, we already fear.
Of course, it's the unknown unknown that will clobber us. A terrorist attack, an embargo, some new destabilizing event none of us here have considered.
Have you reviewed the recent tax changes? or are you just repeating the talking points? Obviously you have not...there is far more than $13, but go ahead and spread a lie
Comrade B-who was that guy who wrote that letter? A classic..
one last comment, dont want to get into it here over something so meaningless. Legalizing MJ will not swell the numbers smoking it, it will be the same people smoking it now as then, I know many people who dont like alcohol...ditto to MJ
I haven't smoked pot in many, many years, but there was a time when I smoked almost daily. It didn't interfere with my life or the accomplishments of that era. (My drugs of choice today are coffee and whiskey . . . at different times of day.)
I would legalize pot immediately if I had the choice and I would regulate it and tax it. Providing either pot or alcohol to a minor is a crime and should be a crime.
An adult, though, should be free to possess and to use any drug that adult so chooses. Putting people in prison for possession of drugs is a waste of government time and money.
sportsfan says:
Today, 11:11:47 AM there are cogent arguments that can be made that the overall effect on society would be negative.
Lots of cops would lose their chances at advancement! Can't have that!
People whose life trajectories have been forever fucked by their exposure to the criminal justice system will get shoveled into the streets where everyone can see how jacked up we made them since their first collar at 12. GJ GJ police state.
People might start asking questions about who made all the money from the previous policies! Can't have that either!
Don't believe me, consult the evidence! Look at the financial markets. Same state administering it. Same rank injustice. The only difference is, you're less indifferent to the squandering of unlimited taxpayer dollars than you are to the suffering of your fellow citizens. In fact, the real rot took root in the justice system, and spread out from there.
Why are you so dumb as to trust the kleptocratic state when it puts it hand in your left pocket, when you see it rob you with its right hand in your other pocket? How do you know it's lying to you? IT'S TALKING LOL!
Actual predictive method btw. Truth is now a completely political commodity now that the conversation, as dear departed CSC would say, has broken down.
Come to psychic grips with the fact that you live in a kleptocracy, that the corruption isn't neatly isolated inside the lines. It didn't get this way over night, but in fact over more than a generation, and that includes a generation of brutal injustice and mass imprisonment to throw a sop to racial and social-economic anxieties. Extemporizing justifications for that on the edge of the abyss is just a little morally irresponsible. The "threatened by wild buck negoes on cocaine" distraction play is why this state's apparatus was so seriously compromised.
Where were the cops during all this? Beating down the jigs for the camera and the budget committee. Just my opinion.
There are going to be eal problems with releasing all these psychically maimed, legally disadvantaged individuals into the general populace. However, the discussion of the venture's merits are moot! Soon poverty will force your hand.
"....kids' use of pot literally puts a stop to their life's progression."
I'll agree with that, but as a society our progress has lately (30 years) been somewhat flawed...
We need to stop the progress...re-evaluate...and try something very different. The consumer slave thing isn't really working out. The masses control the labor that the ponzi schemes have been built on...
"Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble."
I think that there should be a slow painful decline as retailers are stuck in leases that are based on bubble valuations of the underlying property. It seems that the only winners should be those that own the property outright. Does anyone know what % of retailers own the property that they are on?
Never ceases to amaze me where you can find wisdom and insight on the internet. Read Cmdr Sy's comments for a very good explanation of QE and it's consequences.
@black dog: <br/>That reeks of Calvinball at its worse. "Performance issues" when they have made people a ton of money over the past 15-18 months is a bad mojo argument. You make money in a bear market through shorts is evil, and making money in a bull market is self-righteously great!<br/>...even if the ponzi is the same...
Nova-my bad.. that too...
BSR-haven't smoked in a little while...I think your discounting kids decision making..I don't see my daughter ever doing it...I know you were in Nam and I thank for your service. I respect your opinion. cheers!
Anonymous says:
Today, 11:36:59 AM the politicization of accounting rules (mark to market) by bought and paid for politicians will be the final nail in the economic coffin
I would say this is in the past tense, was, they have already lost their nerve, waived the rules and created the zombies. All else is just gravity catching everyone else up with the new reality, at least until the single point of failure which we call "the yield curve" takes up a failure load.
I posted another part of the CR inspired story "American Apocalypse."
excerpt:
“Right, if it doesn’t happen the ways I described then perhaps the Chief calls in Homeland Security. Asks them for a SWAT team based on a tip he received.” One way or the other you will die. It’s up to you how many friends you want to take with you.”
Come to psychic grips with the fact that you live in a kleptocracy, that the corruption isn't neatly isolated inside the lines. It didn't get this way over night, but in fact over more than a generation, and that includes a generation of brutal injustice and mass imprisonment to throw a sop to racial and social-economic anxieties.
Wow, I thought this was just about whether pot should be legal.
I understand government corruption. I live in California.
I understand social injustice. It remains the greatest failing of the United States.
I would never deny living in a kleptocracy. The Power Elite were around long before C. Wright Mills wrote about them and they have never surrender the power they have over the citizenry.
The War on Drugs was, is and will continue to be pablum for the masses. The racial element just added to the social justification used by the dominant group to extend their power in that area, just as they continue to extend it in other areas, the financial system being an obvious component these days.
But there are negative consequences from almost any action and they can't be dismissed as easily as some would like.
Ok,
well my last comment wasn't that intelligent...and I only meant it half seriously...
As for on topic...I just don't see how retail sales have stabilized. I went to a mall this past weekend just to see what it was like (I hate malls). Lot's of people there, but they didn't really seem to be buying much. Unless of course it was an item or two that had been marked down to the point that I doubt the retailer made any money on it (they just lost less).
The rate of decline might slow a bit, but the number will get worse in my opinion. Many people are using their spare cash (if they have any) to pay down debt, and the memory of how much that sucked will keep them from jacking up the cards again. I know this hasn't happened in the past (repeat credit junkies), but I don't know about this time...call it intuition.
That could do it - UK, Russia... somebody. Won't be the US only because we borrow mostly in our own currency. Not saying the bond market couldn't blow up [been expecting that for a long time] but I doubt we are the sovereign that goes TU in the near future.
Dryfly:
you just articulated the US strategy. The sinster person would say the US needs to see others blow up to shield itself. Think armor: tiles that explode on impact of RPG etc. and absorb the impact of the blast.
Would we not benefit by reallocating the resources targeting marijuana to something more productive? Would there also be benefits from removing a cash crop from the thugs making Mexico miserable?
Blackhalo says:
Does anyone know what % of retailers own the property that they are on?
JS-kit is eating posts again - 2nd attempt
Blackhalo,
I have that on file - just not sure where. Off the top of my head, I'm reasonably sure TGT owns over 85% of the land they occupy and higher % of their structures. I think M is the lowest, but would have to confirm. Will try to post the file when I find it.
blackhalo-yes...they need to push that money into defeating drugs that destroy lives! we know they are...
Heck we need to outlaw video games, they make kids more lazy than any drug!
Eff it. Anybody who wants marijuana can get it. Right now it's more expensive than a lot of other illegal drugs -- like crystal -- which are much more harmful and lead more directly to crime. I've read that a large number of identity thieves are on crystal meth -- gives them the focus to do all that work.
I don't care about about what marijuana would do to the "masses." Those who want to get effed up are already doing it. And I know a lot of "professionals" who toke up once or twice a week to relax and are regular pillars of the community.
Me, I haven't touched it in 20 years; it has little appeal. But if we're spending billions a year (even in California alone) as collateral for the War on Drugs just for marijuana, I say -- cut it loose.
And I think that if times get tough enough and you were to pose this question in the masses -- should we spend this five billion on prison space for pot dealers, or on health care for all you newly poor out there -- you know what the answer will be.
Crisis is a great time for cutting loose the societal deadwood.
Since Americans are incapable of even saying the names of their true masters, the confusion, the helplessness, the impunity, the theft, the corrosion of public institutions, the torture, the wars of aggression, and the indentured servitude will continue as planned.
How does it feel, Americans, to be vassals to a foreign nation? I hope it feels good, given that the time you could do anything about it is long past.
I will also extend my gratitude for your service and comments.
Children are an asset to the state, and it is in the state's interest to "protect" them. So I doubt we correlate legal status for adults to impact youth.
For adults the evils of drug abuse are best classified into the category of mental illness, not simply abuse of a substance that once eradicated would end the underlying dysfunctional behavior. The on-topic portion of the post does in fact relate to something historical, namely the repeal immediately upon FDRs election of Prohibition, which materially effected sales and tax revenue.
I am no more inclined today to abuse drugs as I am to abuse alcohol. Merely consuming alcohol does not require the stigma of abuse.
I advise you to look up exactly how much of reveune is generated by the liquor/wine/beer industry and compare that to the next largest industry.
And without snark, if things deteriorate further, we, the collective voting we will be considering the costs of incarceration, to the costs of licensed purchase and appropriate use of substances currently made illicit.
"Stabilization...agree...my company reports to the census bureau and as I reported last week we have stabilized for a couple of months now...just saying..."
C&C,
I had a director pull up our freight by zip.
Pretty interesting. I don't think I am allowed to
go into detail, but looking some things are realllly
obvious. You can actually see where money getting
spent and it is "interesting".
We are on month 4 of stable...though.
i may not be understanding the house hearing on mark to market, but I think the FASB member is saying that the banks and auditors are not able to do cash flow modeling, although that is allowed under current fair market rules (i.e., can mark to market or can mark to cash flow, but they do not know how to mark to cash flow)
i may not be understanding the house hearing on mark to market, but I think the FASB member is saying that the banks and auditors are not able to do cash flow modeling, although that is allowed under current fair market rules (i.e., can mark to market or can mark to cash flow, but they do not know how to mark to cash flow)
I call BS on that - they have remittances AND a procedure to allot them to the MBS tranches else they couldn't pay the instrument holders. They don't WANT TO mark to a cash flow based NPV valuation because then they REALLY have problems... in mark to market they have no rock solid valuation beacuse they aren't trading... in mark to cash flow they got numbers and they are ugly as a result of the foreclosures & defaults... at least with cash flow to the bottom tranches.
Listen if this is a phantom problem - it will be pretty easy to demonstrate the MBS are cash flowing close to projections. You don't see that argument because with all the foreclosures & defaults they AREN'T cash flowing per model predictions. The minute they are there will be a parade of CEO in front of cameras with proof positive it's a phantom problem... right now they don't have the proof so plan b is to fall back on mark to model.
Wow, I thought this was just about whether pot should be legal.
"The more man smoke herb, the more Babylon fall." Politicization has made the issue emblematic. It is a touchstone on the hypocrisy of our culture.
But there are negative consequences from almost any action and they can't be dismissed as easily as some would like.
I think that emancipation of the millions in bondage to the drug war would be severely unsettling to this nation of cowards. I'm sure that our collective choice would be to change the laws going forward and let the victims of past injustice rot, and let the authors of past injustice go free. That's our way, after all.
Luckily for itself, crybaby culture maxed out the credit cards and it will be adjusting to the real world, and lots of people will get to go free.
Some will even get somewhere despite our attempts to legally cripple their chances for the rest of their lives. Others will be psychic maimers who die in a gunfight or with a needle in their arm. If it seems like trouble on the hoof WHOCOODANODE pursuing a deliberate policy of injustice with unsustainable budgets would end in tears.
Unbeliveable : Concress tries to do away with "Mark-to-Market acounting" . Unbeliveable !
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
In an up-market, Mark-to-Market acounting was the next best thing to sliced bread.
Now in a down-market, because Americans don't want to acknowledge the truth, Mark-to-Market acounting is to be substituted by ?Mark-to-Phantasy? or whatever .
ANYTHING BUT THE TRUTH !!!!
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
If things go wrong, they just try to change the rules. Unbeliveable !
The whole world (!!) is laughing about the American Punch-and-Judy show.
So auto and auto parts sales were down 4.3%, but sales given by the automakers for new cars show a drop of 30-40%. Something smells fishy with the numbers. Either there is some weird smoothing going on, or people are buying a lot of parts and old cars.
people are driving insanely to seek a job,
and some others are shopping stuff at a bargain.
You may call it a stabilization but chinese exports are telling me that we are seat on a dead stock.
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
I guess we should just use CDS' to offload the balance sheet risk like you do in Europe. I hear Lichtenstein is starting up a new hedge fund to take over where AIG left off...
I think that emancipation of the millions in bondage to the drug war would be severely unsettling to this nation of cowards. I'm sure that our collective choice would be to change the laws going forward and let the victims of past injustice rot, and let the authors of past injustice go free. That's our way, after all.
If unsettling to many, then perhaps it is time they awoke. The U.S. is far too set in its ways and the daily drug is delivered by the MSM to keep it that way.
If our collective choice is to let the victims of past injustice rot, and I agree that is a likely outcome, it will not be with my concurrence or yours or with that of many others. The result often depends on how vocal the minority can be and a lack of fear in being vocal is a virtue.
A certain percentage of the population will waste their lives in one way or another and contribute little of value to the social collective. If some use drugs as their vehicle to that end, so be it, just as some have used credit cards and toxic overconsumption to that end, whether or not they realize the damage they have done.
Freedom is what joins them as they damage the herd, each in their own way. Yet freedom is supposed to be one of the most important ideals of the herd. The herd should learn to accept the natural consequences of its ideals. More than likely, though, they will simply find new ideals and spread the new word.
"Am I to understand that without mark to market, Bank of America may go to 100 dollars a share soon?"
Sure, in the same way the Maddoff fund worked. Only insiders and institutional investors who get to crack the book could invest sensibly. For the rest of us?...
I'm not sure there's a minority, that the very least, would like to see decriminalized mj. 1 in 10 incarceration rate in this country, and 1 of 2 are in for minor drug-related offenses.
I'd wager this touches everyone. The inflection point is when the USG has to find an alternate pool of revenue. It just might happen.
Some retard in the House just said we would never want to politicize the accounting process but would urge action expeditiously. You can not make this stuff up. If you asked the guy what a balance sheet was he would stare back cross-eyed
Having had the opportunity to observe some "professional (self designated of course) money managers" in real time it is not only shocking how much they rely on the MSM and CNBC, but hang on this stuff (like the M2M debate) as if it were remotely meaningful. M2M is a value creation mechanism in the USSA,, procycilcial or not. And there you have it in a nutshell.
Well, some interesting news from Germany concerning the reaction to another mass murder in a school - the Christian Democratic politician responsible for public safety and security, has said, repeatedly and prominently, that a free society can not exist by turning its schools into high security prisons, and that any such calls, while understandable, should not become the policy of a democratic society, as it undermines the very foundations required for democracy to flourish.
He is right.
He is also the man who has been living in a wheel chair since being attacked by a crazed woman with a knife, and one who supports any number of policies that look decidedly familiar in the age of the war on terrorism (police trojans for your PC put a whole new light on protecting your PC, for example).
And yet, he rejects the very basis of so much American social policy since the Reagan years. A Christian conservative survivor of violence, who seems more aware that a free society cannot survive when drenched in fear, where its young grow up as prisoners, for their own good.
He is also very, very opposed to legalizing drugs. But no one can actually doubt his sincerity concerning the importance of living in a free society, even if one can very reasonably disagree on his policies.
Now try this - after 15 dead, what major American politician responsible for the safety of students in school would reject calls for metal detectors at every school entrance, explaining that such a response would destroy a free society, and still not stop such tragedies.
Just trying to throw some light on Werner's increasingly shrill posting.
Hope this isn't a double post. I can't see my last after a couple of refreshes.
anon, the Manheim auction results showed a brisk trade recently, so off-lease, warranted auto sales are good. Could affect gross sales and not to the benefit of new car dealerships. Next profit center: extended warranties.
"Take the illegal drug trade away and the stock market would collapse immediately."
Funny how people believe that petty crooks are the only ones who profit off of the highest margin business in the world. Wall Street is full of crooks and shysters, do not think they have found a way to profit from the drug trade? think again...
That could do it - UK, Russia... somebody. Won't be the US only because we borrow mostly in our own currency. Not saying the bond market couldn't blow up [been expecting that for a long time] but I doubt we are the sovereign that goes TU in the near future.
My guess is it will be a larger sovereign borrower we stifle out of the market in our own borrowing frenzy. UK or Russia would also be my off the top of the head guesses but why confine myself during these days of miracle and wonder. We we both in the "McCain on the racist vote" camp, I recall.
All really just a hunch though. We haven't really had a global economic collapse to study before.
My gut is that it will look like a "squeeze" style nuke in the dynamics, where we exploit our definitional dominance more and more and suck out more and more capital from the world, til the deteriorating global context and the total unreality of the budget causes a dollar confidence crisis.
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"the total unreality of the budget"...
We're approaching an event horizon on this front, and that's being optimistic...I'm sure many players in the game see us as having arrived at this point already...
Counterpointer: I may have missed it up-thread, but did you assign a name to "America's finest IPA"? As I realign my priorities, I find that I care way more about beer than any other luxury consumer good. Way more.
Woa Anonymous, woa boy! Wouldn't want any attack on that petrochemical complex -woa now! Stop right there.
Increasing Toilet Paper Sales Are Wiping Out Forests
Posted: 5:30 PM Mar 11, 2009
Last Updated: 3:22 PM Mar 11, 2009
Reporter: Meteorologist Lauren Raymer
Email Address: lauren.raymer@wkyt.com
A | A | A Sales of luxury toilet paper, like ultra soft and quilted brands, have increased nearly 40 percent over the last year. More tree fiber is needed to manufacture the better tissue and is causing massive deforestation.
Kate Sinding, Natural Resources Defense Council, says, "These are all impacts that could be avoided with some smarter consumer choices....We can choose to buy toilet paper that is made with a high-recycled content."
The luxurious toilet tissue also uses more fresh water, chlorine bleach, and it contributes to more waste in landfills.
The oldest recycled paper maker, Marcal, will be re-making their toilet paper to remind consumers that their products are made with 100 percent recycled paper.
Scott is also manufacturing bathroom tissue made from 40 percent recycled fiber. Environmentalists encourage consumers to purchase toilet tissue that contains 40-60 percent of recycled fiber. Increasing Toilet Paper Sales Are Wiping Out Forests
The long slow death march continues...to the cliffs I say...(lemmings that is)
According to the fed, Owner's Equity in Household Real Estate is $7.9 trillion as of Q4, 2008. As of Q4, 2004. Owner's Equity in Household Real Estate was $10.8 trillion.
In 2004, Americans had a 58% equity interest in their household real estate. As of Q4, 2008, Americans had only 43% equity interest in their household real estate.
So basically, our homes are worth way less and we own less of said homes.
But the news gets worse. The figures are based on the fed's calculation that home prices have only declined 15% from the peak in Q2 2007! Fat chance. The Case Shiller data of ~ 25% decline is more realistic - and prices are still falling.
Thanks for the efficient allocation of capital wall street. Allocated efficiently to themselves!
Funny how people believe that petty crooks are the only ones who profit off of the highest margin business in the world. Wall Street is full of crooks and shysters, do not think they have found a way to profit from the drug trade? think again...
No, you think again. I was referring to the organizational illegal drug trade, not petty crooks and criminals. There are many major players involved in the illegal drug trade, including our intelligence services, and the money gets laundered through the stock market.
Bob Dobbs,
"Who's everyone? And how do they know it? Point me in some direction."
Well that's a tricky one isn't it. I know my argument wasn't sound in the least. But it really can't be any other way...stemming drug trade involves among other things...policy and punishment...
If you wanna do business, you'll want to be protected via one and from the other...
OT, for those who keep tabs on what the credit card co.'s are currently up to--Just had a weird experience with RBS (a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Scotland, recently in trouble & bailed out by the Brits) I've a stellar FICO, & had an RBS card for years, but not used it since Feb. of 2008. They kept mailing me those convenience checks, that you deposit into your bank account as cash, at 2.99% for 12 months, for a 3% fee. Well,given the economy, the thought occurred that stocking up on mattress cash might be a good idea, so I called RBS in the last week of Feb. to ask if, given RBS' financial difficulties, these checks were still good, & was told Yes-- as long as it posted to my RBS account by Mar. 15. So, last Wed,Mar.4, I deposited an RBS check into my bank account for X amount. My bank teller said it'd take 5 business days for the funds to be available in my account, on Tues, Mar. 10.
So today, I check my online bank balance, & they credited the $Xdollars deposit on Mar.4, but then they debited it back again on Mar. 11th, AND charged me a $10 buck declined check fee! So I've just called RBS. Says RBS today, they'd "closed my account on Mar. 5, as a "protection" to me", as "there'd been no activity on the account since Feb. of '08", but I "could re-open it immediately" and do so without initiating any "new credit inquiry". So I say "after 7 years as your customer, WHY would you close my account without any notice to me?" RBS: "we did mail you notice-- on Mar. 5"-- after they'd closed the account. (No such "notice" has yet appeared in my mail.) So I say-- "Hey, I called RBS the last week of Feb to ask about these very checks, so why didn't your Cust. Serv rep tell me then my account might be closed for inactivity?". RBS: "well, she wouldn't have known-- we close accounts when there's no activity within 9-to 12 months." So I ask, "what exact date did I call RBS about these checks?" RBS: "the last date of contact shows as Mar. 7th".
Well-- I sure as hell didn't call RBS on Mar. 7th. I'd called them back in Feb., and I know I didn't call them after I'd already deposited the check on Mar. 4-- why would I? Am guessing here-- would my bank have called RBS, & RBS declined to honor its own cash advance checks? Somethin's sorta fishy here. The very day after I deposit a cash advance check, somehow by "coincidence", & without any prior notice to me-- not even a phone call!-- RBS suddenly closes an account of 7 years excellent standing? (I've never even had 1 late payment!)
Furst?
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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gasoline sales should NOT be included, EVER. So many miss this. :-E
Amazing that when gasoline sales have a positive influence, they're not discussed in any salient manner, yet when they have a negative influence, oh man, they're front and center to point the public's attention to that fact.
I'm going shopping!
Bloomberg reports that "Excluding gas, retail sales decreased 0.4 percent." So gas prices are way up and the rest of consumer spending is down.
Whoopeee!!!!!
Per Denninger's ticker this a.m., was due to price increase only.
GDP is GDP-
second graph - Are we still at the first stop?
CR,
My guess is if you tracked retail during the last depression, just like the DOW, you would also see the same graph. Down-ward trend, pauses in decine, even little up-ticks, but further downward progression.
The sheer number of store fronts to consumers is still too high. This will adjust further down, but numbers I'm sure will look better as stores consolidate (increasing in store sales) and as less competition (ditto).
--bh
I've been shopping more, because I see 50-70% off sales and I'm replacing items which are 10-15 years old. Once this little exercise is over, I'll probably shut the checkbook for another 10 years except for the weekly beef and America's finest IPA.
C
Indian Pale Ale?
for IPA?
Counterpointer says:
Today, 9:17:44 AM
I'll probably shut the checkbook for another 10 years except for the weekly beef and America's finest IPA.
Ah, something important! So what is America's finest IPA? Personally I like Bridgeport (from Hood River Oregon).
Retail sales are up because everything and I mean everything is on sale. Good luck to retailers who try to increase prices in this environment. We will still see a lot of retailers go belly up this year and next.
GE cut to Double A - pre market higher by 4%
I love that CNBS works for a poorly rated hedgefund
CNBC - we are ecstatic with two up days in a row
"CNBC - we are ecstatic with two up days in a row"
Can't wait to see Cramer on the Daily Show tonight.
One sample does not a trend make.
One sample does not a trend make.
Ditto. I think that's paraphrasing Cervantes, actually. Although will the amazing sorts of retail price breaks I've been seeing around, I can imagine sales might trend up. It is easier to make sales when you're giving it away.
This seems like a euphemistic use of "stabilization" though. If you skydive and your parachute doesn't open, we don't call the abrupt stop at the end "stabilization." I think we call it something else...
ANd outlook stable..
Due to the bond issue guaranteed by Cramer, Santelli?? NO.. Guaranteed by US..
See if we have Outrage and screaming Monday after vacation..
Jim? Any opinion on dropping 3-4 levels without the idiots (Including Comedians showing your lies) backing your bonds to pay your salary??
Jim??
down .4% ex auto and gas
On another note, as it is being bantered in the public sphere, if Fedgov simply did a Prohibition Type Repeal on all currently Illicit narcotics, retail sales would go through the roof, and generous taxes would create a nice revenue flow into the Fed & State government coffers. I'm rather suprised CA hasn't seriously done the math. Reject all Fed funding or incurr rejection of Fed funding to the state for entirely legalizing and normalizing the drug industry, and replace and excced revenue lost with revenue gained from the taxes.
win win
--bh
GE rating cut. Watch for unloading of bonds.
--bh
On this note: I'm thinking of pensions and other types of funds that cannot hold anything but AAA paper.
Sure, GE's "short-term" financing is not affected (yet)--but the bonds sure as hell are.
--bh
MarketWatch.com
FAIRFIELD, Conn., Mar 12, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Standard & Poor's (S&P) today announced a single-notch downgrade of General Electric Company's and General Electric Capital Corporation's (GECC) long-term ratings from AAA to AA+, with a "stable" outlook. The ratings downgrade does not affect GE's and GECC's short-term funding ratings of A-1+, which was affirmed by S&P. The action follows a thorough review of GE's portfolio by S&P.
CA and all the states that border Mexico, are crazy not to legalize marijuana...as the drug wars there are now crossing in the States, there is every motivation to legaiize...taking the profits from the gangs. Tax revenues are a plus. And lowered prison popuation and attendant costs a double plus.
yep.
Release half your Prison population, put some money aside for addiction problems, decriminalize, normalize, and tax. Agree agree agree.
with a "stable" outlook.
What's that mean, not expected to file for bankruptcy by close of business today?
but the sales figures are still seasonally adjusted. That can create monthly anomalies, especially across the new year where there's plenty of evidence that consumers pushed holiday purcahes from December to January.
And the scam of how those sales numbers were pulled in front of the corpse of GE to keep people from canceling pending buys in the premarket is the story of how the stock market really works, kids.
True. And you read the description of GE as a "highly diversified company" you'd think their exposure to a cratering market was negligible and hedged, as though systemic economic failure were itself isolated to that small portion of our economy, you know THE ECONOMY.
yikes.
--bh
franko - Imperial...
C
Going to be hard stabilize retail when the layoffs have not reached the half way point.
In today's world, not horrible is good. I agree with CR that it's a decent report. Even if prices are low, it shows merchandise is moving which means either inventory is going down (good) or there's production of goods taking place (also good).
I don't view this as the end of our troubles, just a glimmer of hope in a sea of despair.
"Double-Plus-Horrible"?
--bh
we are dropping 600k jobs /month 14 straight monthly losses. how can retail sales stablize
They're not. You just need to look at sales tax receipts in each state. Gasoline sales pushed retails sales higher, detracting from discretionary purchases. NOT good but spun nonetheless by the brain dead main stream media and the worst offender, CNBS.
"Retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, but have been stable the last 3 months!"
How about: "Your mom went into a coma, but she seems to be stable now."
a 10% decline in sales and with it a 10% decline in GDP is about equal to the excess caused by a 0% savings rate (assuming it goes back to 8%)and MEW of about $500bn.(going to zero). Given the decline in employment down 9% is consistent with a savings rate of about 5%. If consumers don't save more (unlikely an addiction is a hard thing to kick) and MEW doesn't turn negative we can bounce around at this down 10% YOY for a bit.
LOL. Quote of the day, and it's just after noon;-)
These numbers overall really show what professional consumers the American public has become over the last 15-20 years. Makes me sick.
"...I'm thinking of pensions and other types of funds that cannot hold anything but AAA paper..."
Honestly, the more I learn about this crisis, the more I think that the ratings agencies need to go.
FINALLY. Some REAL good news.
Even Denninger is backing off of his doom and gloom forecasts a little:
Madoff, Banking, Morgan And More - The Market Ticker
I am still on the Depression thread.
This country is really at a significant crossroads. Perhaps one of the most significant. If the Obama admiistrations policys fail, what is the probable outcome?
15 to 25% unemployment
massive bank failures
savings and pensions wiped out
followed by
The USA defaults on all, or most, of its obligations
Dollar no longer the reserve currency
Inflation, the really ugly kind, or deflation the really ugly mean spirited type
followed by
Social displacement
which leads to
disorder, etc
If the Obama admin fails then they also may end up labeled as the ones that "destroyed America." Stabbed us all in the back in favor of the rich and powerful.
That kind of social disruption can take generations to work thru
I guess buying a new lawn mower didn't help as much as I thought it would. The market closes the week out at ? 6000 is my guess.
quite possilbe. if not this week than next.
--bh
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pushed Group of Seven officials to soften criticism of China last month, according to a person briefed on the matter, after his accusation that the nation was “manipulating” the yuan strained ties with the U.S.’s second-biggest trading partner.
Geithner Said to Push G-7 to Ease Criticism of China (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Hillary doesn't want to have to go back over there on her hands and knees begging again. Hhhaaaaaaaaa
I spent about $400 last week on a netbook and a wireless router. That's the end of my toy purchases for the year.
Counterpointer, do tell, what is America's finest IPA? Would it be Dogfish Head 90 Minute IPA, by any chance?
dogfish 90
"Hillary doesn't want to have to go back over there on her hands and knees begging again"
I don't think there is ANYTHING Hillary does on her hands and knees.
Given the drop in exports, China has ALOT less to loan us now.. As always, the question is where do we scrape up the funds from?
It's the exports alone, it's the fact that China is diverting more than a trillion to its own infrastructure projects, money that is not borrowable to us for our projects.
--bh
sorry should read "NOT the exports alone"...
Tough to expect retail gains on record UE claims.
But... What does that matter...Skyin' 'em here boss.
the question is where do we scrape up the funds from?
Stuart
I guess we can rule out the "Cash Store"
What are the number for all durables? I haven't seen gas go up here, it's been flat within a ten cent range for a couple months. If it is largely autos and other durables that are on the wane, that supports the idea that this is a crisis of credit and that the way to resolve the problem is to address the credit issue.
the question is where do we scrape up the funds from?
Stuart
I guess we can rule out the "Cash Store"
the question is where do we scrape up the funds from?
Stuart
I guess we can rule out the "Cash Store"
the question is where do we scrape up the funds from?
Stuart
I guess we can rule out the "Cash Store"
It would seem that rail shipment data would support these claims of a stabilizing retail environment. Intermodal traffic is down half of what it was last week (~12% vs. ~27%).
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Mark to Market live feed
Leaving US House of Representatives
Ok, looking at the detail, the specific retailers that are down besides auto dealerships are Furniture/Furnishings and Electronics/Appliance and Building/Garden Supplies. All consistent with credit issues.
From "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator"
'Well, it's a bull market, you know!
GE rating cut. Watch for unloading of bonds.
--bh
This was pretty much priced in for short/med term paper (I bought some on Monday) and the new 40B is government backed so there should not be much movement.
Agree, except for funds that cannot hold that paper. There are a lot of them.
--bh
Oi! What's with this rallY? What button did you hit?
and MEW doesn't turn negative we can bounce around at this down 10% YOY for a bit.
Can the stores survive? Can the CRE market survive? If they do not - less buyers for retail products
ova,
still thinking about your earlier comment/question on the nature of a more catastrohpic outcome.
I'll attempt at some point to articulate an answer.
--bh
stabilizing at down 30-40% vs LY is not sufficient to keep most retailers alive. There is simply no way to adjust expenses quickly or dramatically enough to regain positive cash flow. The other big problem is vendors can not adjust products to a lower sale price or a higher margin fast enough to keep up with consumer demand. The result is more discounting at lower margins.
I have retailers asking for 65% plus markups vs. mid 50s last year.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with retail mark ups, 65% translates to a $35 cost for a $100 retail item. They are basically planning to sell the item at 25% or more off and want the vendor to cover the cost of the discount.
At this pace a dramatic decrease in product quality and innovation are coming to a store near you.
My business saw stablization in February. We also completed our staf reductions in December (although they probably got recorded in Jan/Feb due to severence). We have too little inventory for even current demand but expect to continue to run the business that way. The same can be said for staffing. We have the remaining workforce working more hours per head than we did 12 months ago. If we continue to run at the current rate or even 20% lower we will continue with our current headcount. In the event we see any material pick up in sales we will need to add more staff and probably significantly increase our inventory. While I dont see that happening, it actually appears to be a possibility based on what I'm seeing and hearing. I would have never thought that 3 months ago.
Guest:
Usual doom/gloom aside, I hope that it is indeed the case.
I've been rereading my old copy of Graham to bring myself back up to speed on the basics.
I'm not looking yet, but that time's coming.
test
Gas prices rise 8.5% m-o-m. Headline should read: "Soaring Energy Prices Drive Recovery."
Yeah, well we did our part for the monthly numbers by purchasing a new kitchen table from a furniture retailer that was liquidating for bankruptcy.
Not to mention all of the stuff for 60 - 70% off at other liquidating retailers.
I don't think it's stopped falling. Just taking a breath...
The raise is about gas pricing more then any consumer fundamentals, more MSM bullish noise.
Gas prices rise 8.5% m-o-m. Headline should read: "Soaring Energy Prices Drive Recovery."
Couldn't agree more. In fact two weeks ago I saw drop in WoW retail sales that rivaled the decline seen the last week of Sept 08. Last week was no better.
The Latest from Denninger:
FLASH: Is "The Bezzle" Going To Come Out?
What is that smell? Accountability? Someone might do something about the criminals still being in charge? That would restore a little bit of my confidence.
I can understand wanting to be positive, but a 9.5% year-on-year decrease seems to be an odd indicator of "possible stabilization".
New flash this morning regarding a bump in foreclosure notices caught the political and financial mob bosses off guard as they expect the MOD programs to be significantly cooling the crisis. The MOD program only impacts owner occupied and a large number of vacation and rental properties are being cut loose. Add MOD re-default rates plus the FHA subprime loan program and its clear any government program attempting to slow foreclosure rates will fail.
--bh
Thanks. I look forward to it.
This type of thing can't help...
RPT-FEATURE-Corporate oil booms in low-tax Switzerland
| Reuters
Is the bottom really in? Rally to 8K?
You don't need a bottom for the market to rally to 8,000
Sales are in the toilet because nobody has any money - pure and simple. 5+ million people are totally unemployed, 5+ million underemployed, and another 5+ million who will never show up on any reports (1099 people) these are people who spend all their time in front of a 'puter, a TV, or on a bar stool. In the past many of these would be out protesting their woes, but now they sit at home, smoke dope, or medicate themselves with little tiny pills instead. The dummy cures advocated for the ailment are more of the same ailment: Lets legalize a "dummy-drug" that everyone uses anyway - lets make legal an easily grown crop that will decrease in price by 95%, Then the hoped for taxes will evaporate, the teen & adolescent usage will skyrocket (but they WILL be visually happier with a 1.5 grade point average).
Better yet, lets get the FedGov to start producing "soma"....... "..there is always soma, delicious soma, half a gramme for a half-holiday, a gramme for a week-end, two grammes for a trip to the gorgeous East, three for a dark eternity on the moon..." as Huxley so eloquently described.
Are you saying we should illegalize alcohol and prescription meds?
Plan for a rainy day, you'll be okay.
Deep in debt, you'll regret.
Like I said earlier.. BUY FOols!
IMO the real bezzle with Madoff is why the SEC backed off. This jail perp walk does not get to the heart of the matter.
"IMO the real bezzle with Madoff is why the SEC backed off. This jail perp walk does not get to the heart of the matter."
What backed off?
There was no plea deal.
There's not really a whole lot of leverage they have.
It's clear he's going to take the fall for everyone, and if anyone else gets charged, he's going to appear as a defense witness and say "they didn't do it".
Since he's already going to die in prison, what, exactly would you have the SEC do differently?
The SEC screwed up for the last 20 years.
If the SEC goes after the other family members, they're doing the right thing at this point. BTW, if Madoff appears as a defense witness and doesn't have hard 3rd party documents to prove what he says, what makes you think anyone cares what he says? His political allies can only do so much for him now.
"BTW, if Madoff appears as a defense witness and doesn't have hard 3rd party documents to prove what he says, what makes you think anyone cares what he says?"
Well, the SEC needs to come up with hard facts themselves, otherwise it's going to be "he said, she said", and the defense only needs "reasonable doubt".
The SEC will indeed have some constructing to do. If these supposed low level employees confirm they only had contact with Papa Madoff and not the rest of the family, that whould help exonerate them. I have a feeling that the low level employees are going to confirm that they had lots of contact with the rest of the family or that the low level employees weren't really involved in the tasks Madoff is saying they were. The concept that Papa acted alone doesn't pass the smell test.
"The concept that Papa acted alone doesn't pass the smell test."
Oh, I agree.
It's just going to be really difficult to prove that without Bernie's cooperation, and that's why this "no deal" guilty pleas is so damaging to the SEC.
(Madoff)
I did what I was told to do... my superior made me do it...the check is in the mail....
....and then you have the FedGov idiots dealing/not dealing with Madoff. What a joke. The biggest heist in history (excluding the banks), and you'd think the FedGov would want to know how he did it. How he got away with it for so long. Instead, they'll deal with him like they dealt with Joe Conforte - with ignorance and stupidity.
lol debtinator, love it...
Guest, wasn't his daughter married to a SEC regulator? That couldn't have anything to do with it, nah...
March 12, 2009
Categories: White House
FBI raids office of D.C. CTO, Obama appointee
Federal agents this morning are searching the Judiciary Square office of Washington, D.C.'s Chief Technology Officer.
The search is part of "an ongoing investigation," said a spokeswoman for the FBI's D.C. Field Office, Lindsay Gotwin, said. She declined to comment further.
The outgoing Chief Technology Officer, Vivek Kundra, was appointed last week Chief Information Officer by the Obama administration. His last day at the city government office was February 4, a spokeswoman for D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, Leslie Kershaw, said.
"We know the FBI is over there but that's all we know," said a staffer in the D.C. CTO's office, Mario Field, who was working from a separate location. Another source familiar with the raid said the FBI had sent all staffers other than senior executives home for the day.
A White House spokesman had no immediate comment.
D.C. mayor's spokeswoman Kershaw said, "Our office has been alerted of FBI's being at CTO office, but we cannot comment until it's over and we get more details."
BHO will be embroiled in some kind of damming controversy before his 4 years is up. He's way too liberal not to be.
"BHO will be embroiled in some kind of damming controversy before his 4 years is up. He's way too liberal not to be."
Every president is.
Get over yourself.
dUCKdUCKgOOSE says:Today, 7:56:49 AM“BHO will be embroiled in some kind of damming controversy before his 4 years is up. He's way too liberal not to be.
versus all those damning controversies that those way too conservatives are able to avoid? I see you took your partisan hack pills this morning.
GE downgraded and is up 12%.. The bottom is in! BUYYYYY!
GE downgraded and is up 12%.. The bottom is in! BUYYYYY!
Anybody remember last year when a bank would announce atrocious results and then the stock would skyrocket?
It's like deja vu all over again. >:o
America's best is Southern Tier's Unearthly Imperial IPA.
Are you saying we should illegalize alcohol and prescription meds?
Yeah, come on Black Hat, why not make any mind or body altering substance illegal. Let's pump up that police mentality so that we have to send in urine/blood samples every week to proclaim our sobriety.
o. I proposed the Federal Government LEGALIZE them. ALL. Period. Tax them. Sell them over-the-counter. Like Alcohol and Tabacoo.
Have a nice day.
--bh
FBI raids office of D.C. CTO, Obama appointee
Ben Smith's Blog: FBI raids office of D.C. CTO, Obama appointee - POLITICO.com
Whatever...this is just noise in the downward trend.
The retail sales numbers do not reflect the majority of the recent job losses nor the future job losses. It's a vicious cycle that we're just beginning to enter. The import-driven, consumer-borrowing-based retail economy IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. The home ATM is permanently closed for most people.
The BIS says derivatives went from 1 Trillion to 1.28 Trillion, and the best part is that it's 95% on margin. Stabilization in retail sales is an anomoly, or at this point maybe it's seen s a national security issue, and they will publish whatever they like. By the way, we are going no where fast when you look at the latest M1 Money Multiplier. You can spread fiat around as much as you like, but it's the turnover that makes the world go round boys and girls.
--
Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble.
What bubbles giveth bubble-bursts taketh away.
There must be a lesson soemwhere for the Fed policymakers but when the next bubble arrives they would find justification for the bubble. They serve the Crooks and bubbles are great for the Crooks.
Jas
Here are the bear market rallies that occurred during the Great Depression.
November 1929 - April 1930: +48%
June 1930 - September 1930: +12%
December 1930 - February 1931: +21%
May 1931 - June 1931: +27%
October 1932 - November 1931: +35%
July 1932 - September 1932: +72%
Bear market rallies during the Great Depression - Morningstar
Popeye -
Great post. Thats why the markets of the early 30s wiped out both the uber-bears and uber-bulls. Thats what happens. A vicious bear market rally will wipe out anyone who has been greedy on the short side. I have a feeling thats most posters in the comments these days....
Yep. If you're on the right side of the tidal wave, you'll be on the right side.
--bh
Criminals paid to buy houses in new 'builder bailout fraud'
Independent.ie
By Shane Hickey
Thursday March 12 2009
"In the 'builder bailout fraud', scam-artists create fake personas to take out mortgages, then buy unsold properties at a vastly inflated price."
"The mortgage is then never repaid and the bank is left with an over-valued property."
"Yesterday the head of the CAB revealed that the scam, which has become common in the US, is now being investigated in Ireland."
Criminals paid to buy houses in new 'builder bailout fraud' -
National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie
Black Star Ranch says:
Today, 10:40:20 AM
“Sales are in the toilet because nobody has any money - pure and simple. 5+ million people are totally unemployed, 5+ million underemployed, and another 5+ million who will never show up on any reports (1099 people) these are people who spend all their time in front of a 'puter, a TV, or on a bar stool. In the past many of these would be out protesting their woes, but now they sit at home, smoke dope, or medicate themselves with little tiny pills instead. The dummy cures advocated for the ailment are more of the same ailment: Lets legalize a "dummy-drug" that everyone uses anyway - lets make legal an easily grown crop that will decrease in price by 95%, Then the hoped for taxes will evaporate, the teen & adolescent usage will skyrocket (but they WILL be visually happier with a 1.5 grade point average).
Whereas you have accumulated many more possessions to be robbed of by your betters or by the reaper. Aren't you clever! Too clever by half!
Did I read down 8.6% Y/Y? LOL!
Ai! Ai! A Backlog!
Legolas says:
Today, 11:05:06 AM
“Ai! Ai! A Backlog!
ROFLMAO.
BSR-Just because you smoked it before and don't like it now doesnt mean it has no redeeming aspects. I would hate to see my friend with MS suffer without it, she has tried everything under the sun legal to try to sleep and live without pain. It's not a facillitator for other drugs! Thats bullshit!
Your laziness connection is more of that, I know I could whip most amatuer golfers while smoking it, surfed huge north shore under it, drive better than 99.9% of drivers after smoking it and have seemed to run my own business out of a house for the last 10 years without any issues. Landing fortune 500 accounts!
Concentrate your agenda on Meth, Crack, Coca, Ice, Heroin, Oxycontin, Extascy and alcohol if your trying to stop laziness and addiction...
IMHO, and after decades of empirical observation, the most extraordinary effect of chronic marijuana usage is to render the user incapable of perceiving that chronic usage has negative effects.
Have you read the Markopoulus letter. Give me a year and I a born and bred dope could have put a case together. Again why did the SEC back off when they had info. IMO phone calls were made among the PTB.
It could be a combination of political pressure and lack of technical comprehension. Never underestimate the incompetence of regulators.
tons of layoffs and furloughs from late January onward still haven't been felt strongly in the retail section. It's coming. Purses can shut a LOT tighter than they are currently shut.
Guest-Wrong..Ummm buy sell high...even on shorts
Aren't you clever! Too clever by half!
???. I thought BSR made two good points in his comments:
IF BSR was saying that the lack of income and thus sales is because a lot of people are on drugs all day, then I disagree with him, but I didn't get that from reading his comment.
\t
Would we not benefit by reallocating the resources targeting marijuana to something more productive? Would there also be benefits from removing a cash crop from the thugs making Mexico miserable?
That's Ballgame, Goat Herders says:
Purses can shut a LOT tighter than they are currently shut.
Stimulus hits paychecks in a little over two weeks.
Were you being sarcastic? The $13 a week stimulus.
This is interesting.
My broker who is affiliated with Raymond James just called me. Effective today RJ is no longer trading 2x and 3x times funds (long and short) due to performance issues.
Effective today RJ is no longer trading 2x and 3x times funds (long and short) due to performance issues.
What does that mean?
cd says:
Today, 11:07:07 AM
Landing fortune 500 accounts!
"Currently Smoking History's Highest Hedge Fund Returns" anyone?
"I know I could whip most [amateur] golfers while smoking it, surfed huge north shore under it, drive better than 99.9% of drivers...."
.....the point in regards to pot was, the "help" that is hoped for by legalizing it will be shown such as I described. The biggest detriment has been the fevered advocacy by users (you are an example), and the prospects that more kids will smoke it. Even THEY know it's a "dummy-drug". Ask them.
Let's keep the underground economy going-no problem, hasn't caused any distortions in the market at all...Lot's and lot's of legal dummy drugs.....
Rep Kanjorski seems to be endorsing suspension of mark to market.....and using FDA suspension of rules to permit use of a new treatment for pancreatic cancer as the model for FASB suspension.... all about helping people.
doesn't sound safe to me.
@black dog: <br/>What does "no longer trading 2x and 3x times funds" mean? Things like Ultra-short and Ultra-long ETFs?
....kids' use of pot literally puts a stop to their life's progression.
@ black dog: Perhaps they weren't actually filling orders and were pocket trading to their everlasting regret?
Stabilization...agree...my company reports to the census bureau and as I reported last week we have stabilized for a couple of months now...just saying...
Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble. - Jas
Exactly. Emptied out the home ATM pretty well they did over those 5 years.
And the steep decline was when people - all of a sudden and almost in unison - woke up to the fact the bubble was over & in their own world, unsustainable. Even dopes aren't always stupid.
Now consumers are into a more orderly consumption pattern that is likely to also not be fully sustainable in the near term as job losses and the need to pay off debt & back fill savings erode consumption further - but it isn't likely to be another steep cliff dive unless we get another big shock - like the total credit freeze up we had last fall.
I've been trying to figure out what the next shock might be - I really can't think of something quite as disruptive as Lehman BK unless it could be a Citi BK. The PTB seem determined to manage that 'collapse'. More like a controlled implosion filmed in slow motion.
GM & Chrysler BK? A lot more job loss for sure but heavily regionalized into parts of the country already hit hard so might only have an incremental hit to consumption nationwide.
My guess is sales & PCE have 'stabilized' but at a persistently lower level. Not good news but not terrible either. Like being moved from ER to ICU... not going home anytime soon.
"My guess is sales & PCE have 'stabilized' but at a persistently lower level. Not good news but not terrible either. Like being moved from ER to ICU... not going home anytime soon"
Dryfly, I agree with you. I think you've got it. We'll be down here for awhile, but I think we know all of the blockbuster bad news out there right now. What we don't know, we already fear.
Of course, it's the unknown unknown that will clobber us. A terrorist attack, an embargo, some new destabilizing event none of us here have considered.
Enjoy the new normal.
I know I could whip most [amateur] golfers while smoking it, surfed huge north shore under it, drive better than 99.9% of drivers...."
Myself, I would of added something about my sexual potency and ability to perform...
"The $13 a week stimulus."
Have you reviewed the recent tax changes? or are you just repeating the talking points? Obviously you have not...there is far more than $13, but go ahead and spread a lie
"Were you being sarcastic? The $13 a week stimulus."
Enough to stimulate pot sales in Cali!
Were you being sarcastic? The $13 a week stimulus
Yes, I was being sarcastic. There should be a sarcastic smiley face available for clarity.
Dust bowling-lol! ditto for alcohol
Comrade B-who was that guy who wrote that letter? A classic..
one last comment, dont want to get into it here over something so meaningless. Legalizing MJ will not swell the numbers smoking it, it will be the same people smoking it now as then, I know many people who dont like alcohol...ditto to MJ
I haven't smoked pot in many, many years, but there was a time when I smoked almost daily. It didn't interfere with my life or the accomplishments of that era. (My drugs of choice today are coffee and whiskey . . . at different times of day.)
I would legalize pot immediately if I had the choice and I would regulate it and tax it. Providing either pot or alcohol to a minor is a crime and should be a crime.
An adult, though, should be free to possess and to use any drug that adult so chooses. Putting people in prison for possession of drugs is a waste of government time and money.
Chrysler threatening to pull out of Canada due to high operating costs. Cheaper to produce cars in the US. Canada has nationalized health care!
sportsfan says:
Today, 11:11:47 AM
there are cogent arguments that can be made that the overall effect on society would be negative.
Lots of cops would lose their chances at advancement! Can't have that!
People whose life trajectories have been forever fucked by their exposure to the criminal justice system will get shoveled into the streets where everyone can see how jacked up we made them since their first collar at 12. GJ GJ police state.
People might start asking questions about who made all the money from the previous policies! Can't have that either!
Don't believe me, consult the evidence! Look at the financial markets. Same state administering it. Same rank injustice. The only difference is, you're less indifferent to the squandering of unlimited taxpayer dollars than you are to the suffering of your fellow citizens. In fact, the real rot took root in the justice system, and spread out from there.
Why are you so dumb as to trust the kleptocratic state when it puts it hand in your left pocket, when you see it rob you with its right hand in your other pocket? How do you know it's lying to you? IT'S TALKING LOL!
Actual predictive method btw. Truth is now a completely political commodity now that the conversation, as dear departed CSC would say, has broken down.
Come to psychic grips with the fact that you live in a kleptocracy, that the corruption isn't neatly isolated inside the lines. It didn't get this way over night, but in fact over more than a generation, and that includes a generation of brutal injustice and mass imprisonment to throw a sop to racial and social-economic anxieties. Extemporizing justifications for that on the edge of the abyss is just a little morally irresponsible. The "threatened by wild buck negoes on cocaine" distraction play is why this state's apparatus was so seriously compromised.
Where were the cops during all this? Beating down the jigs for the camera and the budget committee. Just my opinion.
There are going to be eal problems with releasing all these psychically maimed, legally disadvantaged individuals into the general populace. However, the discussion of the venture's merits are moot! Soon poverty will force your hand.
yagwerk,
precisely.
"....kids' use of pot literally puts a stop to their life's progression."
I'll agree with that, but as a society our progress has lately (30 years) been somewhat flawed...
We need to stop the progress...re-evaluate...and try something very different. The consumer slave thing isn't really working out. The masses control the labor that the ponzi schemes have been built on...
the politicization of accounting rules (mark to market) by bought and paid for politicians will be the final nail in the economic coffin -
Ben, in a bolder, more nearly just world, Canada would pull Chrysler's licenses and give them a short deadline to remove their operations.
Chrysler just wants subsidy.
"Real Retail Sales are at 2000 level. All the gains of 2002-07 were due to the Housing Bubble."
I think that there should be a slow painful decline as retailers are stuck in leases that are based on bubble valuations of the underlying property. It seems that the only winners should be those that own the property outright. Does anyone know what % of retailers own the property that they are on?
Never ceases to amaze me where you can find wisdom and insight on the internet. Read Cmdr Sy's comments for a very good explanation of QE and it's consequences.
EVE Online | EVE Insider | Forums
@black dog: <br/>That reeks of Calvinball at its worse. "Performance issues" when they have made people a ton of money over the past 15-18 months is a bad mojo argument. You make money in a bear market through shorts is evil, and making money in a bull market is self-righteously great!<br/>...even if the ponzi is the same...
Nova-my bad.. that too...
BSR-haven't smoked in a little while...I think your discounting kids decision making..I don't see my daughter ever doing it...I know you were in Nam and I thank for your service. I respect your opinion. cheers!
Anonymous says:
Today, 11:36:59 AM
the politicization of accounting rules (mark to market) by bought and paid for politicians will be the final nail in the economic coffin
I would say this is in the past tense, was, they have already lost their nerve, waived the rules and created the zombies. All else is just gravity catching everyone else up with the new reality, at least until the single point of failure which we call "the yield curve" takes up a failure load.
I posted another part of the CR inspired story "American Apocalypse."
excerpt:
“Right, if it doesn’t happen the ways I described then perhaps the Chief calls in Homeland Security. Asks them for a SWAT team based on a tip he received.” One way or the other you will die. It’s up to you how many friends you want to take with you.”
more at: 401 Authorization Required
Come to psychic grips with the fact that you live in a kleptocracy, that the corruption isn't neatly isolated inside the lines. It didn't get this way over night, but in fact over more than a generation, and that includes a generation of brutal injustice and mass imprisonment to throw a sop to racial and social-economic anxieties.
Wow, I thought this was just about whether pot should be legal.
I understand government corruption. I live in California.
I understand social injustice. It remains the greatest failing of the United States.
I would never deny living in a kleptocracy. The Power Elite were around long before C. Wright Mills wrote about them and they have never surrender the power they have over the citizenry.
The War on Drugs was, is and will continue to be pablum for the masses. The racial element just added to the social justification used by the dominant group to extend their power in that area, just as they continue to extend it in other areas, the financial system being an obvious component these days.
But there are negative consequences from almost any action and they can't be dismissed as easily as some would like.
Ok,
well my last comment wasn't that intelligent...and I only meant it half seriously...
As for on topic...I just don't see how retail sales have stabilized. I went to a mall this past weekend just to see what it was like (I hate malls). Lot's of people there, but they didn't really seem to be buying much. Unless of course it was an item or two that had been marked down to the point that I doubt the retailer made any money on it (they just lost less).
The rate of decline might slow a bit, but the number will get worse in my opinion. Many people are using their spare cash (if they have any) to pay down debt, and the memory of how much that sucked will keep them from jacking up the cards again. I know this hasn't happened in the past (repeat credit junkies), but I don't know about this time...call it intuition.
Other news...that 7k ceiling is a rough, ay.
dryfly says:
Today, 11:19:19 AM
I've been trying to figure out what the next shock might be.
Not domestic. Probably sovereign.
Not domestic. Probably sovereign.
That could do it - UK, Russia... somebody. Won't be the US only because we borrow mostly in our own currency. Not saying the bond market couldn't blow up [been expecting that for a long time] but I doubt we are the sovereign that goes TU in the near future.
Dryfly:
you just articulated the US strategy. The sinster person would say the US needs to see others blow up to shield itself. Think armor: tiles that explode on impact of RPG etc. and absorb the impact of the blast.
I found the other place where Jas posts. he uses a pen name tho...
Amazon.com: germany Discussion Forum
Would we not benefit by reallocating the resources targeting marijuana to something more productive? Would there also be benefits from removing a cash crop from the thugs making Mexico miserable?
YES and YES.
JMO.
Blackhalo says:
Does anyone know what % of retailers own the property that they are on?
JS-kit is eating posts again - 2nd attempt
Blackhalo,
I have that on file - just not sure where. Off the top of my head, I'm reasonably sure TGT owns over 85% of the land they occupy and higher % of their structures. I think M is the lowest, but would have to confirm. Will try to post the file when I find it.
Bair market rally?
I feel like Sir Mixalot, I'm surrounded by bottoms!
blackhalo-yes...they need to push that money into defeating drugs that destroy lives! we know they are...
Heck we need to outlaw video games, they make kids more lazy than any drug!
Eff it. Anybody who wants marijuana can get it. Right now it's more expensive than a lot of other illegal drugs -- like crystal -- which are much more harmful and lead more directly to crime. I've read that a large number of identity thieves are on crystal meth -- gives them the focus to do all that work.
I don't care about about what marijuana would do to the "masses." Those who want to get effed up are already doing it. And I know a lot of "professionals" who toke up once or twice a week to relax and are regular pillars of the community.
Me, I haven't touched it in 20 years; it has little appeal. But if we're spending billions a year (even in California alone) as collateral for the War on Drugs just for marijuana, I say -- cut it loose.
And I think that if times get tough enough and you were to pose this question in the masses -- should we spend this five billion on prison space for pot dealers, or on health care for all you newly poor out there -- you know what the answer will be.
Crisis is a great time for cutting loose the societal deadwood.
Since Americans are incapable of even saying the names of their true masters, the confusion, the helplessness, the impunity, the theft, the corrosion of public institutions, the torture, the wars of aggression, and the indentured servitude will continue as planned.
How does it feel, Americans, to be vassals to a foreign nation? I hope it feels good, given that the time you could do anything about it is long past.
Black Star Ranch,
I will also extend my gratitude for your service and comments.
Children are an asset to the state, and it is in the state's interest to "protect" them. So I doubt we correlate legal status for adults to impact youth.
For adults the evils of drug abuse are best classified into the category of mental illness, not simply abuse of a substance that once eradicated would end the underlying dysfunctional behavior. The on-topic portion of the post does in fact relate to something historical, namely the repeal immediately upon FDRs election of Prohibition, which materially effected sales and tax revenue.
I am no more inclined today to abuse drugs as I am to abuse alcohol. Merely consuming alcohol does not require the stigma of abuse.
I advise you to look up exactly how much of reveune is generated by the liquor/wine/beer industry and compare that to the next largest industry.
And without snark, if things deteriorate further, we, the collective voting we will be considering the costs of incarceration, to the costs of licensed purchase and appropriate use of substances currently made illicit.
And that is said with all due respect.
--bh
U.S. Representative Paul Kanjorski said Congress will revise an accounting measure that banks blame for exacerbating the financial crisis if regulators don’t act “quickly” to give companies more leeway in applying the rule.
Lawmakers Tell FASB to Change Fair-Value ‘Quickly’ (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Ya gotta love these guys they just haven't had enough fraud for one decade.
"Stabilization...agree...my company reports to the census bureau and as I reported last week we have stabilized for a couple of months now...just saying..."
C&C,
I had a director pull up our freight by zip.
Pretty interesting. I don't think I am allowed to
go into detail, but looking some things are realllly
obvious. You can actually see where money getting
spent and it is "interesting".
We are on month 4 of stable...though.
i may not be understanding the house hearing on mark to market, but I think the FASB member is saying that the banks and auditors are not able to do cash flow modeling, although that is allowed under current fair market rules (i.e., can mark to market or can mark to cash flow, but they do not know how to mark to cash flow)
i may not be understanding the house hearing on mark to market, but I think the FASB member is saying that the banks and auditors are not able to do cash flow modeling, although that is allowed under current fair market rules (i.e., can mark to market or can mark to cash flow, but they do not know how to mark to cash flow)
I call BS on that - they have remittances AND a procedure to allot them to the MBS tranches else they couldn't pay the instrument holders. They don't WANT TO mark to a cash flow based NPV valuation because then they REALLY have problems... in mark to market they have no rock solid valuation beacuse they aren't trading... in mark to cash flow they got numbers and they are ugly as a result of the foreclosures & defaults... at least with cash flow to the bottom tranches.
Listen if this is a phantom problem - it will be pretty easy to demonstrate the MBS are cash flowing close to projections. You don't see that argument because with all the foreclosures & defaults they AREN'T cash flowing per model predictions. The minute they are there will be a parade of CEO in front of cameras with proof positive it's a phantom problem... right now they don't have the proof so plan b is to fall back on mark to model.
plan B is to uphold mark to market but change the rules such that for the banks it will be "mark to madoff" -
sportsfan says:
Today, 11:42:40 AM
Wow, I thought this was just about whether pot should be legal.
"The more man smoke herb, the more Babylon fall." Politicization has made the issue emblematic. It is a touchstone on the hypocrisy of our culture.
But there are negative consequences from almost any action and they can't be dismissed as easily as some would like.
I think that emancipation of the millions in bondage to the drug war would be severely unsettling to this nation of cowards. I'm sure that our collective choice would be to change the laws going forward and let the victims of past injustice rot, and let the authors of past injustice go free. That's our way, after all.
Luckily for itself, crybaby culture maxed out the credit cards and it will be adjusting to the real world, and lots of people will get to go free.
Some will even get somewhere despite our attempts to legally cripple their chances for the rest of their lives. Others will be psychic maimers who die in a gunfight or with a needle in their arm. If it seems like trouble on the hoof WHOCOODANODE pursuing a deliberate policy of injustice with unsustainable budgets would end in tears.
What of the freedom to grow a cash crop (hemp)which has many practical uses and was at one time legal to grow?
Dradis contact! Jain fleet.
Unbeliveable : Concress tries to do away with "Mark-to-Market acounting" . Unbeliveable !
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
In an up-market, Mark-to-Market acounting was the next best thing to sliced bread.
Now in a down-market, because Americans don't want to acknowledge the truth, Mark-to-Market acounting is to be substituted by ?Mark-to-Phantasy? or whatever .
ANYTHING BUT THE TRUTH !!!!
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
If things go wrong, they just try to change the rules. Unbeliveable !
The whole world (!!) is laughing about the American Punch-and-Judy show.
I predicted today would be a pullback day. I was wrong. The bear market rally continues!
So auto and auto parts sales were down 4.3%, but sales given by the automakers for new cars show a drop of 30-40%. Something smells fishy with the numbers. Either there is some weird smoothing going on, or people are buying a lot of parts and old cars.
people are driving insanely to seek a job,
and some others are shopping stuff at a bargain.
You may call it a stabilization but chinese exports are telling me that we are seat on a dead stock.
Yeah, driving insanely is a job req these days. Now that the Mexican trucks are off the road.
People are obviously using their extra dough to buy stocks now in a vain attempt to make up for their recent losses. More harvesting to come.
called doubling dow
Americans are such a despicable bunch of faudulent manipulators and shysters .
I guess we should just use CDS' to offload the balance sheet risk like you do in Europe. I hear Lichtenstein is starting up a new hedge fund to take over where AIG left off...
I think that emancipation of the millions in bondage to the drug war would be severely unsettling to this nation of cowards. I'm sure that our collective choice would be to change the laws going forward and let the victims of past injustice rot, and let the authors of past injustice go free. That's our way, after all.
If unsettling to many, then perhaps it is time they awoke. The U.S. is far too set in its ways and the daily drug is delivered by the MSM to keep it that way.
If our collective choice is to let the victims of past injustice rot, and I agree that is a likely outcome, it will not be with my concurrence or yours or with that of many others. The result often depends on how vocal the minority can be and a lack of fear in being vocal is a virtue.
A certain percentage of the population will waste their lives in one way or another and contribute little of value to the social collective. If some use drugs as their vehicle to that end, so be it, just as some have used credit cards and toxic overconsumption to that end, whether or not they realize the damage they have done.
Freedom is what joins them as they damage the herd, each in their own way. Yet freedom is supposed to be one of the most important ideals of the herd. The herd should learn to accept the natural consequences of its ideals. More than likely, though, they will simply find new ideals and spread the new word.
Madoff better give good head.
"Not domestic. Probably sovereign."
Yeah, agree with the probability.
Take the illegal drug trade away and the stock market would collapse immediately.
Am I to understand that without mark to market, Bank of America may go to 100 dollars a share soon?
"Am I to understand that without mark to market, Bank of America may go to 100 dollars a share soon?"
Sure, in the same way the Maddoff fund worked. Only insiders and institutional investors who get to crack the book could invest sensibly. For the rest of us?...
sportsfan,
I'm not sure there's a minority, that the very least, would like to see decriminalized mj. 1 in 10 incarceration rate in this country, and 1 of 2 are in for minor drug-related offenses.
I'd wager this touches everyone. The inflection point is when the USG has to find an alternate pool of revenue. It just might happen.
--bh
Some retard in the House just said we would never want to politicize the accounting process but would urge action expeditiously. You can not make this stuff up. If you asked the guy what a balance sheet was he would stare back cross-eyed
Having had the opportunity to observe some "professional (self designated of course) money managers" in real time it is not only shocking how much they rely on the MSM and CNBC, but hang on this stuff (like the M2M debate) as if it were remotely meaningful. M2M is a value creation mechanism in the USSA,, procycilcial or not. And there you have it in a nutshell.
I have seen the enememy and he is us...
the ordinary mind of the ordinary man is our greatest asset!
Well, some interesting news from Germany concerning the reaction to another mass murder in a school - the Christian Democratic politician responsible for public safety and security, has said, repeatedly and prominently, that a free society can not exist by turning its schools into high security prisons, and that any such calls, while understandable, should not become the policy of a democratic society, as it undermines the very foundations required for democracy to flourish.
He is right.
He is also the man who has been living in a wheel chair since being attacked by a crazed woman with a knife, and one who supports any number of policies that look decidedly familiar in the age of the war on terrorism (police trojans for your PC put a whole new light on protecting your PC, for example).
And yet, he rejects the very basis of so much American social policy since the Reagan years. A Christian conservative survivor of violence, who seems more aware that a free society cannot survive when drenched in fear, where its young grow up as prisoners, for their own good.
He is also very, very opposed to legalizing drugs. But no one can actually doubt his sincerity concerning the importance of living in a free society, even if one can very reasonably disagree on his policies.
Now try this - after 15 dead, what major American politician responsible for the safety of students in school would reject calls for metal detectors at every school entrance, explaining that such a response would destroy a free society, and still not stop such tragedies.
Just trying to throw some light on Werner's increasingly shrill posting.
Hope this isn't a double post. I can't see my last after a couple of refreshes.
anon, the Manheim auction results showed a brisk trade recently, so off-lease, warranted auto sales are good. Could affect gross sales and not to the benefit of new car dealerships. Next profit center: extended warranties.
"Chrysler just wants subsidy."
Yes they do! All part of the backfire of over zealous unions. Now who pays up? Give us your money or the jobs get!
"Take the illegal drug trade away and the stock market would collapse immediately."
Funny how people believe that petty crooks are the only ones who profit off of the highest margin business in the world. Wall Street is full of crooks and shysters, do not think they have found a way to profit from the drug trade? think again...
sorry, that 1 in 100 incarceration.
Shilling on inflation/deflation debate:
Dont Sweat Inflation: Deflation "In the Cards" for 2009 and Beyond, Shilling Says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
dryfly says:
Today, 12:34:19 PM
That could do it - UK, Russia... somebody. Won't be the US only because we borrow mostly in our own currency. Not saying the bond market couldn't blow up [been expecting that for a long time] but I doubt we are the sovereign that goes TU in the near future.
My guess is it will be a larger sovereign borrower we stifle out of the market in our own borrowing frenzy. UK or Russia would also be my off the top of the head guesses but why confine myself during these days of miracle and wonder. We we both in the "McCain on the racist vote" camp, I recall.
All really just a hunch though. We haven't really had a global economic collapse to study before.
My gut is that it will look like a "squeeze" style nuke in the dynamics, where we exploit our definitional dominance more and more and suck out more and more capital from the world, til the deteriorating global context and the total unreality of the budget causes a dollar confidence crisis.
everyone knows that a huge amount of drug money gets laundered through washington...
legalize anything, and you're taking money that's spoken for
New Thread: Fed: Household Net Worth Cliff Dives in Q4
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/fed-household-net-worth-cliff-dives-in.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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"everyone knows that a huge amount of drug money gets laundered through washington... "
Who's everyone? And how do they know it? Point me in some direction.
Not that it would surprise me, but "everyone knows" is one of those fallacies they alert you to in tenth grade speech class.
Comrade BR,
"the total unreality of the budget"...
We're approaching an event horizon on this front, and that's being optimistic...I'm sure many players in the game see us as having arrived at this point already...
Blackhalo,
Not the retail REO info you were asking about, but very close to on point {I'm still looking}:
UPDATE: 2008 Store Closings Among Major Retailers Up More Than 40% Over 2007 - CoStar Group
Counterpointer: I may have missed it up-thread, but did you assign a name to "America's finest IPA"? As I realign my priorities, I find that I care way more about beer than any other luxury consumer good. Way more.
Woa Anonymous, woa boy! Wouldn't want any attack on that petrochemical complex -woa now! Stop right there.
Increasing Toilet Paper Sales Are Wiping Out Forests
Posted: 5:30 PM Mar 11, 2009
Last Updated: 3:22 PM Mar 11, 2009
Reporter: Meteorologist Lauren Raymer
Email Address: lauren.raymer@wkyt.com
A | A | A Sales of luxury toilet paper, like ultra soft and quilted brands, have increased nearly 40 percent over the last year. More tree fiber is needed to manufacture the better tissue and is causing massive deforestation.
Kate Sinding, Natural Resources Defense Council, says, "These are all impacts that could be avoided with some smarter consumer choices....We can choose to buy toilet paper that is made with a high-recycled content."
The luxurious toilet tissue also uses more fresh water, chlorine bleach, and it contributes to more waste in landfills.
The oldest recycled paper maker, Marcal, will be re-making their toilet paper to remind consumers that their products are made with 100 percent recycled paper.
Scott is also manufacturing bathroom tissue made from 40 percent recycled fiber. Environmentalists encourage consumers to purchase toilet tissue that contains 40-60 percent of recycled fiber.
Increasing Toilet Paper Sales Are Wiping Out Forests
The long slow death march continues...to the cliffs I say...(lemmings that is)
dryfly,
I agree. Russia has the potential TU first among the big players.
--bh
More data:
According to the fed, Owner's Equity in Household Real Estate is $7.9 trillion as of Q4, 2008. As of Q4, 2004. Owner's Equity in Household Real Estate was $10.8 trillion.
In 2004, Americans had a 58% equity interest in their household real estate. As of Q4, 2008, Americans had only 43% equity interest in their household real estate.
So basically, our homes are worth way less and we own less of said homes.
But the news gets worse. The figures are based on the fed's calculation that home prices have only declined 15% from the peak in Q2 2007! Fat chance. The Case Shiller data of ~ 25% decline is more realistic - and prices are still falling.
Thanks for the efficient allocation of capital wall street. Allocated efficiently to themselves!
blackhat at 9:30:12,
I see two things. My reply to you doesn't appear on the thread and CR has a new post. I'll let it go and pretend to do some work.
Funny how people believe that petty crooks are the only ones who profit off of the highest margin business in the world. Wall Street is full of crooks and shysters, do not think they have found a way to profit from the drug trade? think again...
No, you think again. I was referring to the organizational illegal drug trade, not petty crooks and criminals. There are many major players involved in the illegal drug trade, including our intelligence services, and the money gets laundered through the stock market.
Bob Dobbs,
"Who's everyone? And how do they know it? Point me in some direction."
Well that's a tricky one isn't it. I know my argument wasn't sound in the least. But it really can't be any other way...stemming drug trade involves among other things...policy and punishment...
If you wanna do business, you'll want to be protected via one and from the other...
OT, for those who keep tabs on what the credit card co.'s are currently up to--Just had a weird experience with RBS (a subsidiary of Royal Bank of Scotland, recently in trouble & bailed out by the Brits) I've a stellar FICO, & had an RBS card for years, but not used it since Feb. of 2008. They kept mailing me those convenience checks, that you deposit into your bank account as cash, at 2.99% for 12 months, for a 3% fee. Well,given the economy, the thought occurred that stocking up on mattress cash might be a good idea, so I called RBS in the last week of Feb. to ask if, given RBS' financial difficulties, these checks were still good, & was told Yes-- as long as it posted to my RBS account by Mar. 15. So, last Wed,Mar.4, I deposited an RBS check into my bank account for X amount. My bank teller said it'd take 5 business days for the funds to be available in my account, on Tues, Mar. 10.
So today, I check my online bank balance, & they credited the $Xdollars deposit on Mar.4, but then they debited it back again on Mar. 11th, AND charged me a $10 buck declined check fee! So I've just called RBS. Says RBS today, they'd "closed my account on Mar. 5, as a "protection" to me", as "there'd been no activity on the account since Feb. of '08", but I "could re-open it immediately" and do so without initiating any "new credit inquiry". So I say "after 7 years as your customer, WHY would you close my account without any notice to me?" RBS: "we did mail you notice-- on Mar. 5"-- after they'd closed the account. (No such "notice" has yet appeared in my mail.) So I say-- "Hey, I called RBS the last week of Feb to ask about these very checks, so why didn't your Cust. Serv rep tell me then my account might be closed for inactivity?". RBS: "well, she wouldn't have known-- we close accounts when there's no activity within 9-to 12 months." So I ask, "what exact date did I call RBS about these checks?" RBS: "the last date of contact shows as Mar. 7th".
Well-- I sure as hell didn't call RBS on Mar. 7th. I'd called them back in Feb., and I know I didn't call them after I'd already deposited the check on Mar. 4-- why would I? Am guessing here-- would my bank have called RBS, & RBS declined to honor its own cash advance checks? Somethin's sorta fishy here. The very day after I deposit a cash advance check, somehow by "coincidence", & without any prior notice to me-- not even a phone call!-- RBS suddenly closes an account of 7 years excellent standing? (I've never even had 1 late payment!)
any thoughts?
with kermit sporting a 7 handle today I think we can safely drop all talk of depression.
Clearly, happy daze are here again
Rise in retail sales?
Just the womenfolk buying some new clothes for springtime.