If you look at the graph there is a precipitous drop EVERY February the past decade. Granted, this is a more profound one that in years past, but if the pattern continues then we should see an uptick in March and April. If we do not, if March and April continue to decline or even stagnate, then I think this data is more meaningful. But we'll have to wait until then!
If you look at the graph there is a precipitous drop EVERY February the past decade. Granted, this is a more profound one that in years past, but if the pattern continues then we should see an uptick in March and April. If we do not, if March and April continue to decline or even stagnate, then I think this data is more meaningful. But we'll have to wait until then!
-Scott
Yep, looking forward to the March and April data with earnest. It could be THE dataset to watch. If you follow Setser's thoughts about supply chains... you have S. Korea and Taiwan exporting to China crashing (inputs), then at some point the more labor-intensive assembly processes in China should falter and result in a dive in exports to the ROW.
DC area response of one parish and of the Washington Interfaith Network, which is affiliated with like organizations up and down the East Coast.
?WHAT DOES THE ECONOMIC CRISIS MEAN AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?
Come listen; come share your anxieties and hopes for yourself and for those you know. How is the crisis affecting those we serve through our ministries serving the hungry and homeless? Do we need to help ourselves and others to speak up? Come share ideas for what we of Blessed Sacrament and of the Chevy Chase community can do about the crisis. What should WIN be doing to assure that governments, businesses and institutions are responding?...
Purposes:
The purposes are two-fold: 1.) to learn how the current economic crisis is affecting you and others you know in the parish and community 2.) to build our capacity for leadership and plan for parish and community “House Meetings/ Listening Sessions” on Monday, March 30, 2009, to be held in the school auditorium.
...The priority issues raised in these meetings will be used to help guide WIN in the Blessed Sacrament community and city-wide. They will also be presented to Metro IAF---the East Coast affiliates, including WIN, of the Industrial Areas Foundation---on April 23, 2009."
Do many folks realized how great a vested interest the US has in maintaining today's political status quo in China?
I don't buy in to the conjecture that the Chinese proletariat will uprise and overthrow the communist govt (that has bought US debt gleefully for years) as a result of this downturn, for a number of reasons.
BUT if they did, who really thinks a populist govt will take the reins and continue lock-step with the old economic policies of using the workers' money / savings to buy up so much US debt?
Ergo, expect the Obama Admin to go to eyebrow-raising lengths to maintain the current political status quo in Communist China. The last thing the US economy needs is a neophyte populist representative democratic government structure in China; it could extend the US' debt crisis another decade.
Totally wrong, US has no vested interest in maintaining Chinese political status quo. Given the magnitude of Chinese losses that would occur if Treasury prices dropped significantly, whatever entity that might replace the current system in China would likely strive to avoid that capital loss. It may be a moot issue as per Setser China may be approaching a trade deficit.
In any case significant political upheaval in China would likely cause reduced economic activity as the populace focuses on getting on the winning bandwagon in the restructuring.
This is definitely down data, but I would not say stunning. If you took a growth trend of the 1995 to 1998 numbers and extrapolated that through Jan-10, I bet the 205k-ish containers for Feb would be ABOVE that trendline. I'm not saying that the news isn't bad - it is. I'm just pointing out that things were SO inflated that this really needs to be called a correction. Maybe even an over-correction, with a bounce expected, but it is not stunning.
I like Railfax and the sites C has mentioned. World trade is collapsing. The argument isn't if it is or not. For me, it's more of a "what does this mean?"
"who really thinks a populist govt will take the reins "
Do you think it would be such a simple matter to 'take the reins' in China? It's not only for economic reasons, anyway, that the world doesn't need the kind of chaos that would ensue.
People's hair was figuratively standing on end when the SU fell. Great falls like that can be planet-shaking.
Perhaps you left one thing out of the list? Productivity has a direct impact on trade balances?
For instance, if I buy a cell phone, a dictaphone, a digital camera, a USB stick, a music player, a flashlight, an alarm clock (and more) then I could easily need $ 1,000.00 in liquidity.
But if the iPhone can do all that (and more) for $ 500.00 then I only need $ 500.00 in liquidity in the system.
Has Calculated Risk had an opportunity to explore how the elimination of tremendous waste at the level of the average citizen (sic "consumers") aka productivity gains will impact the liquidity requirements of the banks?
Extreme example : if Americans take their lawns (a pure cost waste) and use them to grow $ 1,000.00 of food per year - there is no need for that $ 1,000.00 dollars of liquidity in the system. A lawn (waste) becomes a producer of productivity. And on top of that - the trade balance improves!
In my opinion, there are no "consumers", they are people. Cancer is a "consumer".
Anyway, Obama stated that blogs like Calculated Risk are ignored by the White House "masters of the universe". I would suggest : perhaps they should start listening?
Speaking of China - Wasn't it on Hillary's and Obama's to-do list to address human rights abuses in China? ... Or just another campaign promise to throw under the bus along with their dumbstruck slack-jawed supporters.
Anonymous says:
Today, 6:37:59 PM You're really cranky about the Chinese lately. Take a deep breath and just accept that we're all going down together.
Of course we're all going down together. The US-Chinese bubble can't be seen correctly from a "side" because you have to sit in the middle to watch how reducing the impossible to a black box happening in another nation let them jack up higher and higher. It was truly internationalized.
I warned about this last October. Next up we will discover that some of the outbound traffic was actually "returns" and/or containers being mothballed elsewhere.
Rob Dawg: I warned about this last October. Next up we will discover that some of the outbound traffic was actually "returns" and/or containers being mothballed elsewhere.
Just fought through traffic on an interstate with a railroad in the middle. The northbound train was pulling nothing but empty box cars and empty auto transports. Usually the trains are jammed with VW and Fords made in Mexico. Emptiest train I've ever seen here. Spooky! I guess that they will end up on a siding in the big train yard in Ft. Worth.
Could it be that the annual decline in February is not due to the
Chinese holiday, but a slowdown after U.S. Holiday exports? Exports seem to peak every year, late in the year!
LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA.
"LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA."
They're is clearly a lot stockpiling in China going on. Given that US consumers are still at this moment the glue that holds consumption together world-wide the LA numbers are alarming. As are GDP drops in Taiwan, South Korea etc.. They point to further drop in GDP in China down the line as they are leading indicators.
How much capacity is idled now - IIRC, CC had links to that - ask the shipping companies how 'normal' rates are for their cost structure, esp. debt service...
Fair Economist says:Today, 3:52:26 PM PDT
LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA.
"Avoiding unpredictable chaos in a giant nuclear nation is always a vested interest."
Of course. I'm always loathe to use the phrase or one like it.
I'm forever seeing assumptions about how we're out of that particular danger now. I don't believe it. As long as the monsters exist they can display their power.
Dawg: returns? My understanding was that once the goods were inspected and loaded onto containers, the bill is due and there are RMAs. That's why you employ your own people (do not native workers!) to go over there and inspect what goes into the container. MMMV but that's what I remember.
Dry bulk market still fragile
Friday, 13 March 2009
cargo_ship23124234_thumb.jpgThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed gains early in the week to return back at 2,201 points (down by 70 points) after yesterday’s session. It’s clear that the index will keep its fragile behavior for some time, at least until more cargoes start flowing in the seas. For that to happen a route to a sustainable world economy must be established.
The pattern suggests that Feb-Mar are always the lowest and that Aug-Sep are the highest. Typically, looks like Aug-Sep are 100,000/mo higher than Feb-Mar. If this holds, looks like we are back to 1999-2000 levels. Coincidentally, that's basically where the stock market is back. Given the new era of austerity, we're going to "hearty like its 1999".
And would hurt the Chinese debt holdings. And there's the fly in the ointment of anyone who thinks there's an easy way out of this mess. Too many countries with too many valid but competing interests.
Bah! Obama said this crisis has been overblown... that is, I remind you, AFTER he got a $1T stimulus bill passed to head off "catastrophe" just weeks ago. This trade data is irrelevant.
I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead.
Roubini has been harping lately that most people don't grasp the seriousness of the GDP as well as import/export drops we are seeing worldwide. In a global economy no major country operates in a vacuum. One countries exports are another countries imports and a drop in one can lead to a negative feedback loop.
I've heard the huge Chinese shipping company, COSCO, has pulled out of the Cali docks over some sort of dispute (don't know if it was restrictions or more charges). I do know that traffic is coming up to Vancouver, B.C. The longshoremen at the Port of Vancouver decided this would be an awesome time to threaten strike action. Believe me, they got everything they wanted in a jiffy!
we need to instill confidence in the economy according to Larry Summers - the post above does not do that - Larry knows best - (he even bears some resemblance to Yoda)
Anonymous says:Today, 4:16:34 PM PDT
I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead.
Thank you for your obviously first hand report. The smaller Port of Hueneme to the west of LA/Long Beach has had the same auto experience. Inventory is piling up. People still don't understand the scale of this collapse of over water world trade.
Looking at the weekly AAR traffic numbers for the two big western railroads (UNP and BNI), who haul a lot of the containers out of LA/LB, it looks like there has been a slight upswing in containers hauled in week 9 and 10, from the low point seen in week 8.
Slid says:Today, 4:25:42 PM PDT
Emptiest train I've ever seen here. Spooky! I guess that they will end up on a siding in the big train yard in Ft. Worth.
Think that's bad? Watch the Mojave Spaceport for mothballed aircraft. Double scary. [I don't have an easy reference to their storage inventory, just scuttlebutt.]
American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them.
ad served up by google on the CR website : Despite the financial troubles in US and Europe, IMF experts still predict worldwide economic growth of about 4% this year.
This growth will be fueled entirely by countries often overlooked, like Argentina and Poland. Put your money to work in these healthy economies and you can insulate it from the problems at home, plus capture yields of 17.3% -- or more
With Poland's FX risks, I'm not sure that's enough over libor.
Argentina?. They still haven't resolved the debt from the last crisis. OTOH after their last default, they probably wern't able to load up with tons debt.
I didn't think I'd live to see a line like this. It should rattle you to your core. If it doesn't, you're a pump monkey.
"The Obama administration sought to ease Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s concern about the security of his country’s investments in U.S. government debt, reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years."
I didn't think I'd live to see a line like this. It should rattle you to your core. If it doesn't, you're a pump monkey.
"The Obama administration sought to ease Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s concern about the security of his country’s investments in U.S. government debt, reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years."
“reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years..."
That Obama is ONE good salesman. I can't help but think the Chinese are smarter than the American electorate, they aren't going to buy into that dream, they will smile and say O.K. and run home to sell their treasuries.
Subject \t Lower my rate, or I close account
Date/Time \t 03/13/09 06:19:20 PM
You wrote:
The interest on my account was recently raised from ~9%, to 15%. Your 9% interest rate was lower than the 10% margin in my investing account, so it was in my financial interest to keep this balance. This is no longer the case. Seeing how I used this same balance to short Citi, and other financials, via options trading, I am sitting on an a very large pile of cash. I give you the option of lowering my rate back to 9%, or I will pay off the balance and close the account. The choice is yours. You have one week to respond.
\t
Subject \t Re: Lower my rate, or I close account
Date/Time \t 03/13/09 07:46:19 PM
Customer Service Wrote:
We received your request to lower the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) on your account.
We are happy to inform you that we have lowered your APR for purchases to a variable rate based on the Prime Rate plus 8.99%, currently 12.24%.
People also forget Chinese intelligence gathering capabilities. They have outstanding hackers. You really think these banks, agencies, etc . haven't been penetrated? Hell, they shut the Pentagon down for a week not to long ago.
If they hack a banks servers and stay away from the accounts. Instead go for email servers and work products... Yeah, they know far more than you think
Nova, I agree with that point but my IBM thinkpad hardly recognizes its first cousin Lenovo. These port stats make me think the idled 350k rail cars is just a start.
poic.v20 says:
Today, 7:44:17 PM I see tax increases and service cuts coming. The US is between a rock and a hard place.
I see service cuts too. Not so much, tax increases. If you are paying less than your previous state, federal and local to the Gangsta Disciples and they keep you secure, that's a tax cut, right?
Good for "mp" re pointing out we have to prove to the Chinese that we are credit-worthy. 10 years ago they were nothing.
Also, little-noted was the Commerce report yesterday- most of the economy covered by this release: sales down 14% YOY, plus substract 203% for inflation:
THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009 AT 10:00 A.M. EDT
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
January 2009
Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for
January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0
percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January 2008.
Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an
end-of-month level of $1,440.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from December 2008 and down 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from January
2008.
Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43.
The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.
Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios: 2000 to 2009 (Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes)
INTENTION TO REVISE: Revisions to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories are
scheduled for release in March 2009 and April 2009, respectively. Estimates will be revised to reflect the results of the 2007 Annual
Wholesale and Annual Retail Trade Surveys. Manufacturing estimates will be revised at a later date. Revisions to the Wholesale data will be
reflected in the February 2009 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales (MTIS) release scheduled for April 14, 2009. Revisions to the
Retail data will be reflected in the March 2009 MTIS release scheduled for May 13, 2009.
American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them.
Maintenance is no longer done for a lot of commercial planes in the US.Some still is of course, but what you think. The FAA is having a real problem pulling their surprise inspections because of this.
"American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them. "
This has been happening to American for YEARS. I know from personal experience (unfortunately). This is not due to the current economic woes.
The judge had been a frightened man
Assessing in his final days
What would become of the books
The walls and walls and rooms and rooms of books
Some were first editions
A discriminating mind might consider worth more than a buck
When they found him, he had been dead
Three days. When they found him, a 22 Derringer
And four knives lay on his bedside table.
Enough food to keep him well a considerable time
I might as well be Jim Bowie. People say
I look like him
(his favorite saying)
Time was we counted on Fannin
Too many days, not enough men
(the old men say
those who have been around, have taken
their show on the road, some of those
the same roads, crossed time
and again and again and again until these random atoms
strike against each other and so-called magic happens.)
The Derringer goes off, strafing
A bailiff, a picture
Perfect afternoon: people gathering, anticipating,
Whinnying. Some caught a whiff
Of the carbide, ran back
To this place, this place
Where every possibility had been collected
A house at the corner of 6th and Bres
An office for a lawyer but a house
And that is okay
Because he once was a judge
And there was a shed outside
And a canoe--
The canoe was priced right
CR, you absolutely have to take into consideration Chinese New Year - particularly this year when things slowed down in the weeks ahead of spring festival. The numbers would still be bad but the impact of the week long national holiday is a major factor making February not very useful for comparison.
"Maintenance is no longer done for a lot of commercial planes in the US.Some still is of course, but what you think. The FAA is having a real problem pulling their surprise inspections because of this."
By that, do you mean that the maintenance is not done, or that it's done in another country.
I talked to a guy not long ago who had worked as a programmer for Ethiopian Airlines. They have a huge service facility and maintained airliners for a number of different lines. Be interesting if US lines are servicing their craft in out-of-the-way places like that. Interesting as in, glad I don't have to fly anymore.
\t
United Airlines did some of their maintenance work up until last year at the Vancouver airport (YVR), but the contract was up and they were consolidating their work to some location. Forget where it was, but probably was in America... having maintenance done in random countries to avoid union labor does happen, but I don't know how much or where exactly
"CR, you absolutely have to take into consideration Chinese New Year - particularly this year when things slowed down in the weeks ahead of spring festival. The numbers would still be bad but the impact of the week long national holiday is a major factor making February not very useful for comparison."
And this is why the already bad January numbers are even worse under the surface.
Aw, Jesus, don't get me started on this. Many of you probably don't know that much of the major maintenance work is now being down in places like MEXICO and CHINA.
It pisses me off massively, it really does. A lot of people are going to die because of this, and that's usually the ONLY THING that will move FAA to do anything about it.
Since we are talking transportation stats I'm curious if people would find it useful if there was a site with more customizable graphing of railroad traffic stats than railfax?
I'm thinking about putting something like that together, giving the end user the ability to specify timeframes, what railroad, and different types of railroad traffic for the graphs. Would people find any use in this or am I the only rail nerd that looks at this sort of data?
mp said: "They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this country. It's a damned tragedy and few know about it." Just like they doid with markets, banks, etc.
"mp said: "They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this country. It's a damned tragedy and few know about it." Just like they doid with markets, banks, etc."
I think it was shut down entirely last year after losing contracts for a year. Not sure where all the work went, but a lot didn't make it back to America.
ZIONISTS AND THE COMPANIES THEY OWN CAUSED THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
TWO ISRAELI PRIME MINISTERS HAVE BEEN IRREVERSIBLY (FINALLY) CONVICTED OF COMMENTING MASSACRES AGAINST CIVILIANS
IN AN ATROCIOUS VIOLATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL UN LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS
ISRAEL TORTURED 864,396 {CLOSE TO ONE MILLION} CIVILIANS TO DEATH INCLUDING :
UN EMPLOYEES WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE UN MARKED BUILDINGS
INJURED CIVILIANS REFUGEES INSIDE (UN) MARKED BUILDINGS
CHILDREN WHILE IN THEIR UNIFORMS INSIDE (UN) MARKED ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS
INJURED CIVILIANS IN HOSPITALS AND MEDICAL DOCTORS AND NURSES TOO
RED CROSS AMBULANCE PARAMEDICS WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE MARKED BUILDINGS AND MINIVANS
ISRAEL IS VIOLATING INTERNATIONAL ((UN)) LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS AND STILL
OCCUPYING ARABIC LANDS FOR DECADES
********BOYCOTT ISRAEL AND THE SUPPORTING COMPANIES********
"What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?"
He can't have it both ways. You and I both know why he said it.
A little leadership would be nice, you know, tell people like it is and how we're going to get from here to there, but I don't expect to see it in my lifetime.
"He can't have it both ways. You and I both know why he said it. "
You know? That pronouncement from him scared me more than any other news story this week... hell, maybe the month. That was an overt manipulation of the truth that did more than err on propaganda put forth in an obvious attempt tp manipulate the market and public opinion. Extremely frightening stuff.
The reassurances to the Chinese you mentioned earlier are a complete cluster. I'm starting to agree with you that our situation is extremely dire.
"Ah, the magic of the invisible hand boosting my standard of living to greater levels each year."
Yes, the free market solves everything! Just remove the regulations, untie the invisible hand, and let the 'lazy fairies' do the rest. The top 1% get richer and the middle class is decimated.
Any economist who still admires Milty Friedman needs to be removed from any position of policy making.
China is sabre rattling about our debt. There is nothing they can do to stop us from devaluing our own dollar so that we can pay our debt off much more cheaply. Its actually quite ingenious of our government and it was really inevitable. The only other option is default.
"China is sabre rattling about our debt. There is nothing they can do to stop us from devaluing our own dollar so that we can pay our debt off much more cheaply. Its actually quite ingenious of our government and it was really inevitable. The only other option is default."
Then why aren't we doing it and why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings? Your claim isn't backed up by the facts on the ground.
As long as we're on the subject of maintenance, I'd like to point out something to those of you who fly.
A few years ago, there was an extended period when no one was washing their airplanes. This may seem a minor detail to the uninitiated, but it's important.
Washing the aircraft helps line mechanics spot "smoking" rivets, meaning rivets that have worked loose. A few smokers can cause an explosive decompression.
There's an old saying that "if it looks like a piece of crap, it's probably a piece of crap."
"I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead."
"“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today after the annual meeting of the legislature. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”
Denninger on China:
"Uh, what part of being a banker and making loans do you think you're exempt from? Banking is a tremendously profitable enterprise, provided you're prudent; if your banking policy is simply "we'll loan you money to buy our crap" without regard for whether the borrower is overlevered or asset prices are getting totally out of rational relationships to income, then you're headed for bankruptcy as a bank, because inevitably your borrower will default."
Pretty funny, if the borrower wasn't the gov't of the USA
"why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings?"
"No, sorry, Mr Premiere, you were a sucker and we're gonig to screw it" would be rude and unprofessional. The realtor NEVER admits the termites and bad plumbing were pre-existing conditions.
The fake money in treasuries now.
Ergo, holders of treasuries have to get screwed.
Dipto Fatso.
Broward, as much as you'd and others on this board would like to believe this is some devious plot by the administration there is really nothing to back up this assertion.
Every step of the way when push came to shove the US has backed off with China.
Whether it has been implicitly guaranteeing FNM/FRE debt, guaranteeing China losses via AIG, dropping human rights issues, dropping claims of currency manipulation, dropping WTO issues.
Can we default on Treasury holdings? Sure. Is there anything to lead me to believe that this would happen as anything other than a final last step? No.
Would we already be screwed economically and socially by the time we got to that point? Probably.
What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?
I thought that this was his response to the criticism that he's trying too much reform (particularly health care) when the economy is still on life support.
Banks want G20 to set up pricey bad bank
Critics say the financial sector is holding the economy hostage
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:54 p.m. EDT March 13, 2009Comments: 22
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The world's largest financial institutions urged the G20 financial leaders on Friday to endorse the "bad bank" approach to dealing with the credit crisis, an expensive model one expert likened to another ransom note.
"A little leadership would be nice, you know, tell people like it is "
Was thinking about this re Stewart vs. Cramer. Stewart's objections to Cramer and all the financial media are well-taken, but what about government? Hey, where's Goldilocks? Heard about nothing but her well-being for more than a year. Now? Nada. How about Paulson's 'it's all contained". How about any of the CEOs from Mozillo to Prince to O'Neal to Lewis with their deliberately misleading guidance about their own companies.
Some honesty might be nice. It could be bracing.
Comrade Byz,
I'm reading older posts on this tread [ I actually stopped, ate dinner and chatted with wife ]. Noted your interest in shipping. You might like this: inforMARE - Press Review
Just integrate the area under the curve from 1997 until the present. The result represents- Bill Clinton's sellout of the USA to China, millions of lost American jobs, and trillions in debt to buy goods from China. IT IS UNSUSTAINABLE!
Unfortunately, I can't provide a link, but about 18 months ago, read an article in reputable publication about the problem with "counterfeit" parts (usually, mfged in the Far East).
Higher taxes will reduce gov't income, creating an bigger problem. Likewise, cutting services will increase savings rate, reducing gov't income even more.
Yeh, I was looking into idle ships during the week, bcos had a rumor out of HK. Didn't realize they were holing up offa Brunei.
O/T - I cross-checked the Dubai airport car emporium story, ie jingle Mercs, with someone at lunch today who had just visited. Confirmed, in full. Her estimate was 3000 cars, based on parking and X x Y numbers on the block.
Old Dubai Gorge... Where endlines of capitalist DNA can be found by intrepid financial archeologists.
"Broward, as much as you'd and others on this board would like to believe this is some devious plot by the administration there is really nothing to back up this assertion"
Please save your rather ignorant and unwarranted political quackery for somebody who cares.
Nova, quoted from your link, "In April, Robert Sturgell, the FAA's Acting Administrator, stated that a recent safety audit had found airlines are in 99 percent compliance with Airworthiness Directives, despite the groundings."
"why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings?"
"No, sorry, Mr Premiere, you were a sucker and we're gonig to screw it" would be rude and unprofessional. The realtor NEVER admits the termites and bad plumbing were pre-existing conditions.
The fake money in treasuries now.
Ergo, holders of treasuries have to get screwed.
Dipto Fatso."
Broward, what you have just described is a devious plan. Your own words.
"Please save your rather ignorant and unwarranted political quackery for somebody who cares."
Obviously you do care or you wouldn't have replied. It sure looks like your describing a devious plan.
The problem is that we are flying a modern airliner(our economy) with the instruction manual of a WW1 biplane (old ideas on economics and control), and won't use the new manual because of our "cherished" beliefs.
that's the goal. flying is safe. i fly all the time and am usually asleep before the plane even takes off. i have all the juicy inside info also. i know the guys that service the planes.
Is it possible that Wen's statements are simply an attempt to drive down Treasury prices?
If I knew I was committed to purchasing, say, $1 trillion of some asset over the next year or two, and it was trading at all-time high valuations, I might make public noises trying to scare others away from it.
mmmm, no. If they drove down Treasury prices, they would be shooting the several trillion they already own in the foot. It would only increase the interest rate on new issues they bid for.
There are a lot of counterfeit parts floating around. FAA put out an AD about it a couple of years ago and brings the subject up frequently in the circulars, especially concerning standard hardware items.
my BIL hipped me to this problem years ago, in reference to bolts, in particular. Also, he said a black market in used parts (again, bolts) was a problem, too.
Interesting take Nemo, might that also be why China has been playing tag with US research vessels in International waters? Try to stir the pot and get everyone else nervous?
Wen's statement was public. Obama's reassurance was public. That tells me the whole thing is a stunt. Maybe to drive down prices, maybe political points with the people for Wen.
There are a lot of counterfeit parts floating around. FAA put out an AD about it a couple of years ago and brings the subject up frequently in the circulars, especially concerning standard hardware items. -- mp
i don't know any ground techs that would put equipment on ground vehicles (tugs, bag carts, etc) that they thought might fail, let alone the aircraft guys.
""Think that's bad? Watch the Mojave Spaceport for mothballed aircraft. Double scary. [I don't have an easy reference to their storage inventory, just scuttlebutt.]"" Rob Dawg
There are a couple of other huge aicraft storage facilites in Arizona, around the town of Marana. They are visible from the freeway, and doubtless google earth. One near Marana is for private aircraft, and is normally full of 'name brands' like Alaska, etc. The other one nearer to southern Tucson has mostly military aircraft. There used to be another military storage field near Douglas - it was unfenced, and we used to play in the bombers when I was a young kid. Memories.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines: Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
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Interesting to note the explosive growth in imports versus the anemic rise in exports. Of course that doesn't even take into account the imports of illegal drugs or the exports of toxic assets.
The downward move is indeed stunning, yet....for the previous 2 years, Feb vs Jan was down roughly 25-26%, that neighborhood, so down 35% is like down about 10%, which corresponds interestingly to the very rough decline in consumption.
so, this chart depicts extreme seasonality in this indicator - sure, this year was worse than normal, but if the last 5 years are any indication, expect a gian pop in the next 3 months, no?...
Failure, but not a bank failure.
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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But the market is up and cnbc says we have a bottom so this really can't matter. Right?
You can fit a lot of iPods and MacBooks in one cargo container.
I know I am like a broken record with this:
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Check out "Intermodal Traffic" in "Weekly Loaded Units". Intermodal means rail-ship-road, i.e., TEUs.
BR thanks for the post. Repetition is the mother of all teachers or something! I enjoy the links. Cheers!
You are saying that the M/M trend is not down - it's flat.
Chinese are the world's premiere capaitalists and would not have let a holiday cut into exports, if there were anything to export.
The Chinese Year of the Ox is traditionally associated with second-half recoveries.
Yeah, the Chinese sure are laughin' at us now, lemme tell ya.
Trade is "collapsing?" It used to, when looking at numbers like these, someone would say it's "going to hell in a handbasket."
Doesn't anyone use colorful metaphors any more?
When CR starts using terms like "going to hell in a handbasket" then we all will know what time it is!
Not even back to 2000, pre MEW yet. Lets the cliff diving continue.
"Yeah, the Chinese sure are laughin' at us now, lemme tell ya."
You wouldn't be able to tell if they were laughing at you. They would do it in private.
You wouldn't be able to tell if they were laughing at you. They would do it in private.
Or maybe they are laughing "with" you.
I'm much more comfortable with a swift adjustment than a drawn out one
Keep in mind LA port containers out are only back to 2006, although imports are back to 2002.
Should be interesting now that the entire ex-petroleum trade deficit is attributable to China
I'm not 100% sure but going out on a limb, the Chinese probably had a New Year every year since 2002 but this chart point is below all of them.
If you look at the graph there is a precipitous drop EVERY February the past decade. Granted, this is a more profound one that in years past, but if the pattern continues then we should see an uptick in March and April. If we do not, if March and April continue to decline or even stagnate, then I think this data is more meaningful. But we'll have to wait until then!
If you look at the graph there is a precipitous drop EVERY February the past decade. Granted, this is a more profound one that in years past, but if the pattern continues then we should see an uptick in March and April. If we do not, if March and April continue to decline or even stagnate, then I think this data is more meaningful. But we'll have to wait until then!
-Scott
Yep, looking forward to the March and April data with earnest. It could be THE dataset to watch. If you follow Setser's thoughts about supply chains... you have S. Korea and Taiwan exporting to China crashing (inputs), then at some point the more labor-intensive assembly processes in China should falter and result in a dive in exports to the ROW.
DC area response of one parish and of the Washington Interfaith Network, which is affiliated with like organizations up and down the East Coast.
?WHAT DOES THE ECONOMIC CRISIS MEAN AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?
Come listen; come share your anxieties and hopes for yourself and for those you know. How is the crisis affecting those we serve through our ministries serving the hungry and homeless? Do we need to help ourselves and others to speak up? Come share ideas for what we of Blessed Sacrament and of the Chevy Chase community can do about the crisis. What should WIN be doing to assure that governments, businesses and institutions are responding?...
Purposes:
The purposes are two-fold: 1.) to learn how the current economic crisis is affecting you and others you know in the parish and community 2.) to build our capacity for leadership and plan for parish and community “House Meetings/ Listening Sessions” on Monday, March 30, 2009, to be held in the school auditorium.
...The priority issues raised in these meetings will be used to help guide WIN in the Blessed Sacrament community and city-wide. They will also be presented to Metro IAF---the East Coast affiliates, including WIN, of the Industrial Areas Foundation---on April 23, 2009."
The tithing ain,t what it used to be
I thought the Chinese were holding our debt, aka. "the bag".
They have sold us an awful lot of hamburgers in exchange for a promise of payment Tuesday. Not sure what they have to laugh about.
Do many folks realized how great a vested interest the US has in maintaining today's political status quo in China?
I don't buy in to the conjecture that the Chinese proletariat will uprise and overthrow the communist govt (that has bought US debt gleefully for years) as a result of this downturn, for a number of reasons.
BUT if they did, who really thinks a populist govt will take the reins and continue lock-step with the old economic policies of using the workers' money / savings to buy up so much US debt?
Ergo, expect the Obama Admin to go to eyebrow-raising lengths to maintain the current political status quo in Communist China. The last thing the US economy needs is a neophyte populist representative democratic government structure in China; it could extend the US' debt crisis another decade.
Totally wrong, US has no vested interest in maintaining Chinese political status quo. Given the magnitude of Chinese losses that would occur if Treasury prices dropped significantly, whatever entity that might replace the current system in China would likely strive to avoid that capital loss. It may be a moot issue as per Setser China may be approaching a trade deficit.
In any case significant political upheaval in China would likely cause reduced economic activity as the populace focuses on getting on the winning bandwagon in the restructuring.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins ,
You're really cranky about the Chinese lately. Take a deep breath and just accept that we're all going down together.
This is definitely down data, but I would not say stunning. If you took a growth trend of the 1995 to 1998 numbers and extrapolated that through Jan-10, I bet the 205k-ish containers for Feb would be ABOVE that trendline. I'm not saying that the news isn't bad - it is. I'm just pointing out that things were SO inflated that this really needs to be called a correction. Maybe even an over-correction, with a bounce expected, but it is not stunning.
This collapse so far is only 'little' better than 2000.
Anonymous says:
Today, 6:34:58 PM
You wouldn't be able to tell if they were laughing at you. They would do it in private.
The latter does not make the former true. Regardless, they are not laughing now.
http://lolfed.com/wp-content/uploads/remember-wen.jpg
Remember We
Its the trend, not the location on the chart.
I like Railfax and the sites C has mentioned. World trade is collapsing. The argument isn't if it is or not. For me, it's more of a "what does this mean?"
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins,
Not to nitpick. But how do you know they're not laughing?
EHP --
You read LOLFed, too?
"who really thinks a populist govt will take the reins "
Do you think it would be such a simple matter to 'take the reins' in China? It's not only for economic reasons, anyway, that the world doesn't need the kind of chaos that would ensue.
People's hair was figuratively standing on end when the SU fell. Great falls like that can be planet-shaking.
Perhaps you left one thing out of the list? Productivity has a direct impact on trade balances?
For instance, if I buy a cell phone, a dictaphone, a digital camera, a USB stick, a music player, a flashlight, an alarm clock (and more) then I could easily need $ 1,000.00 in liquidity.
But if the iPhone can do all that (and more) for $ 500.00 then I only need $ 500.00 in liquidity in the system.
Has Calculated Risk had an opportunity to explore how the elimination of tremendous waste at the level of the average citizen (sic "consumers") aka productivity gains will impact the liquidity requirements of the banks?
Extreme example : if Americans take their lawns (a pure cost waste) and use them to grow $ 1,000.00 of food per year - there is no need for that $ 1,000.00 dollars of liquidity in the system. A lawn (waste) becomes a producer of productivity. And on top of that - the trade balance improves!
In my opinion, there are no "consumers", they are people. Cancer is a "consumer".
Anyway, Obama stated that blogs like Calculated Risk are ignored by the White House "masters of the universe". I would suggest : perhaps they should start listening?
Thank you for a superb blog!
It does look like exports have ticked up. Dead cat bounce?
Speaking of China - Wasn't it on Hillary's and Obama's to-do list to address human rights abuses in China? ... Or just another campaign promise to throw under the bus along with their dumbstruck slack-jawed supporters.
No worries. Rear-view mirror. Banks are making money now. Bottom is in!
Anonymous says:
Today, 6:37:59 PM
You're really cranky about the Chinese lately. Take a deep breath and just accept that we're all going down together.
Of course we're all going down together. The US-Chinese bubble can't be seen correctly from a "side" because you have to sit in the middle to watch how reducing the impossible to a black box happening in another nation let them jack up higher and higher. It was truly internationalized.
I warned about this last October. Next up we will discover that some of the outbound traffic was actually "returns" and/or containers being mothballed elsewhere.
I doubt any were "returns"... maybe mothballed.
Rob Dawg: I warned about this last October. Next up we will discover that some of the outbound traffic was actually "returns" and/or containers being mothballed elsewhere.
Just fought through traffic on an interstate with a railroad in the middle. The northbound train was pulling nothing but empty box cars and empty auto transports. Usually the trains are jammed with VW and Fords made in Mexico. Emptiest train I've ever seen here. Spooky! I guess that they will end up on a siding in the big train yard in Ft. Worth.
Nemo
I wait for a while, and then I'll look through a bunch at once
Could it be that the annual decline in February is not due to the
Chinese holiday, but a slowdown after U.S. Holiday exports? Exports seem to peak every year, late in the year!
........equal opportunity recesssion?......nah...............
LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA.
The meaningful view IMNSHO is the YoY changes, and the rate of change of those changes...
"Totally wrong, US has no vested interest in maintaining Chinese political status quo."
Avoiding unpredictable chaos in a giant nation is always a vested interest.
Fair Economist,
You're not reading the shipping press. Shipping isn't recovering, it's the southern hemisphere's agricultural export season.
also I need to add the main categories of ships are tanker, drybulk (what you referenced), LNG, and container (what CR's post is about)
"When CR starts using terms like "going to hell in a handbasket" then we all will know what time it is! :)"
Beer-Thirty?
On that note I'm leaving work!
"LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA."
They're is clearly a lot stockpiling in China going on. Given that US consumers are still at this moment the glue that holds consumption together world-wide the LA numbers are alarming. As are GDP drops in Taiwan, South Korea etc.. They point to further drop in GDP in China down the line as they are leading indicators.
It could be that the export volatility implies that the trend from '98 to '01 is unsustainable.
and this is bad? less consumption is good!
I'm wrong about what? Shipping being down?
Pay more attention to the shipyards and boats anchoring in protected bays waiting for work
FE,
How much capacity is idled now - IIRC, CC had links to that - ask the shipping companies how 'normal' rates are for their cost structure, esp. debt service...
Slightly rephrased:
Pavel says:Today, 3:53:39 PM PDT
"Totally wrong, US has no vested interest in maintaining Chinese political status quo."
Avoiding unpredictable chaos in a giant nation is always a vested interest.
Avoiding unpredictable chaos in a giant nuclear nation is always a vested interest.
JS-Kit sucks.
Fair Economist says:Today, 3:52:26 PM PDT
LA traffic notwithstanding, other indicators don't support an ongoing collapse of trade. BDI has returned to a normal level at which you can make money running a cargo ship and the anchored Capesize ship rate is getting close to normal again. So there's a good deal of shipping; it's just not going to LA.
"Price" is not "traffic."
"Avoiding unpredictable chaos in a giant nuclear nation is always a vested interest."
Of course. I'm always loathe to use the phrase or one like it.
I'm forever seeing assumptions about how we're out of that particular danger now. I don't believe it. As long as the monsters exist they can display their power.
Just finished watching the Cramer video. I actually think Cramer did a good job.
Dawg: returns? My understanding was that once the goods were inspected and loaded onto containers, the bill is due and there are RMAs. That's why you employ your own people (do not native workers!) to go over there and inspect what goes into the container. MMMV but that's what I remember.
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping
Dry bulk market still fragile
Friday, 13 March 2009
cargo_ship23124234_thumb.jpgThe Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed gains early in the week to return back at 2,201 points (down by 70 points) after yesterday’s session. It’s clear that the index will keep its fragile behavior for some time, at least until more cargoes start flowing in the seas. For that to happen a route to a sustainable world economy must be established.
Dollar collapse would help exports.
Yea but shoes would cost a $1,000 each!
The pattern suggests that Feb-Mar are always the lowest and that Aug-Sep are the highest. Typically, looks like Aug-Sep are 100,000/mo higher than Feb-Mar. If this holds, looks like we are back to 1999-2000 levels. Coincidentally, that's basically where the stock market is back. Given the new era of austerity, we're going to "hearty like its 1999".
looks like the cliff dive is just a seasonality pattern post xmas shipping. maybe a little steeper, but not unwarranted.
"Dollar collapse would help exports."
If we're all in the same boat, and what helps us hurts others, we're not even helping ourselves, except desperately.
New paradigm coming, I think.
"Dollar collapse would help exports."
And would hurt the Chinese debt holdings. And there's the fly in the ointment of anyone who thinks there's an easy way out of this mess. Too many countries with too many valid but competing interests.
Like statistics for the Port of Oakland
Oakland stats are not Feb, or am I misreading?
You're right, just through Jan.
=-O
Port of Oakland - Job Center
more ships are being scrapped despite steel prices though, that's looking up
no where near enough for excess capacity to be pruned though
Bah! Obama said this crisis has been overblown... that is, I remind you, AFTER he got a $1T stimulus bill passed to head off "catastrophe" just weeks ago. This trade data is irrelevant.
/snark off
I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead.
Sorry to here about your situation. But thanks for sharing the info...
Roubini has been harping lately that most people don't grasp the seriousness of the GDP as well as import/export drops we are seeing worldwide. In a global economy no major country operates in a vacuum. One countries exports are another countries imports and a drop in one can lead to a negative feedback loop.
I've heard the huge Chinese shipping company, COSCO, has pulled out of the Cali docks over some sort of dispute (don't know if it was restrictions or more charges). I do know that traffic is coming up to Vancouver, B.C. The longshoremen at the Port of Vancouver decided this would be an awesome time to threaten strike action. Believe me, they got everything they wanted in a jiffy!
Wow- wait until March
we need to instill confidence in the economy according to Larry Summers - the post above does not do that - Larry knows best - (he even bears some resemblance to Yoda)
http://multimedia.heraldinteractive.com/images/47e7ba86a5_larry.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_BOe5eIshqdM/SK70L7gOYXI/AAAAAAAAC8Q/n1-kBwKByvw/s320/yoda.lg.jpg
Bove- banks never needed Govvie funds
Wait, we can convert them to cruise ships and spend our hard saved money on vacation.
“I'm wrong about what? Shipping being down?
Pay more attention to the shipyards and boats anchoring in protected bays waiting for work
Take a look at how many ships are laid up at Subic Bay
Anonymous says:Today, 4:16:34 PM PDT
I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead.
Thank you for your obviously first hand report. The smaller Port of Hueneme to the west of LA/Long Beach has had the same auto experience. Inventory is piling up. People still don't understand the scale of this collapse of over water world trade.
Well, the traffic might be going somewhere, but it's not Vancouver. Take a look at the Vancouver Feb numbers:
The resource cannot be found.
Imports down 27% YOY, exports 15%.
One growth area - empty TEU - up 35% in January.
Mao's Thoughts, bound in vinyl
ades?
Next couple months will really by interesting, we should be building back up in April/May/June- if the trend drops further look out below.
Nice post!
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And now for something slightly positive...
Looking at the weekly AAR traffic numbers for the two big western railroads (UNP and BNI), who haul a lot of the containers out of LA/LB, it looks like there has been a slight upswing in containers hauled in week 9 and 10, from the low point seen in week 8.
Slid says:Today, 4:25:42 PM PDT
Emptiest train I've ever seen here. Spooky! I guess that they will end up on a siding in the big train yard in Ft. Worth.
Think that's bad? Watch the Mojave Spaceport for mothballed aircraft. Double scary. [I don't have an easy reference to their storage inventory, just scuttlebutt.]
American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them.
There have been many airplane crashes lately.
Anyone want to take a guess why?
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This growth will be fueled entirely by countries often overlooked, like Argentina and Poland. Put your money to work in these healthy economies and you can insulate it from the problems at home, plus capture yields of 17.3% -- or more
17.3%.... that's subprime.
With Poland's FX risks, I'm not sure that's enough over libor.
Argentina?. They still haven't resolved the debt from the last crisis. OTOH after their last default, they probably wern't able to load up with tons debt.
This growth will be fueled entirely by countries often overlooked, like Argentina and Poland. Put your money to work in these healthy economies and...
Poland. Yes indeed.
You forgot Poland.
Poland. Yes indeed.
Don't forget Poland!!!
You can get great returns by buying the bankster's bonds.
I didn't think I'd live to see a line like this. It should rattle you to your core. If it doesn't, you're a pump monkey.
"The Obama administration sought to ease Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s concern about the security of his country’s investments in U.S. government debt, reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years."
Obama Aides Try to Reassure China on Treasury Debt (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
IMF Survey: World Growth Grinds to Virtual Halt, IMF Urges Decisive Global Policy Response
IMF expects world growth to grind to a halt. Where the hell did that add get those IMF exports from.
So this is inflationary, right?
reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years...
They got be praying for a miracle. No way that is going to happen otherwise. I bet that made the Chinese feel sooooo much better.
I didn't think I'd live to see a line like this. It should rattle you to your core. If it doesn't, you're a pump monkey.
"The Obama administration sought to ease Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s concern about the security of his country’s investments in U.S. government debt, reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years."
I was the worst president ever.
No joke.
mp: I suppose if we have a $2 trillion dollar deficit this year, cutting it to merely a $1 trillion dollar deficit will be easy! And oh so reassuring.
Thanks to everyone who contributed shipping data, port URLs, and especially the Anon ship's officer.
"reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years... "
I see tax increases and service cuts coming. The US is between a rock and a hard place.
TCA says:Today, 4:40:40 PM PDT
So this is inflationary, right?
Let us step back a moment. Understand. No, really understand. "If it ain't inflationary you won't be able to read about it on the intertubz anyway."
The die are cast. Yes, there is deflation. There will be more. Inflation in things you need. Deflation in things you cannot afford.
Uncle Larry's already murmuring about the D-word.
deflation - Google News
So are a lot of other folks...
"Yes, there is deflation. There will be more. Inflation in things you need. Deflation in things you cannot afford."
Damn, Dawg, that's good. Very good.
“reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years..."
That Obama is ONE good salesman. I can't help but think the Chinese are smarter than the American electorate, they aren't going to buy into that dream, they will smile and say O.K. and run home to sell their treasuries.
We are so screwed
See ya, SUCKERSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!
YouTube - Jackson Browne The Pretender
Say a prayer for the Pretender
Subject \t Lower my rate, or I close account
Date/Time \t 03/13/09 06:19:20 PM
You wrote:
The interest on my account was recently raised from ~9%, to 15%. Your 9% interest rate was lower than the 10% margin in my investing account, so it was in my financial interest to keep this balance. This is no longer the case. Seeing how I used this same balance to short Citi, and other financials, via options trading, I am sitting on an a very large pile of cash. I give you the option of lowering my rate back to 9%, or I will pay off the balance and close the account. The choice is yours. You have one week to respond.
\t
Subject \t Re: Lower my rate, or I close account
Date/Time \t 03/13/09 07:46:19 PM
Customer Service Wrote:
We received your request to lower the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) on your account.
We are happy to inform you that we have lowered your APR for purchases to a variable rate based on the Prime Rate plus 8.99%, currently 12.24%.
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Where is the bank failure?
Only two guiness' left, and in no shape to drive to the store for more.
LMAO
People also forget Chinese intelligence gathering capabilities. They have outstanding hackers. You really think these banks, agencies, etc . haven't been penetrated? Hell, they shut the Pentagon down for a week not to long ago.
If they hack a banks servers and stay away from the accounts. Instead go for email servers and work products... Yeah, they know far more than you think
Nova, I agree with that point but my IBM thinkpad hardly recognizes its first cousin Lenovo. These port stats make me think the idled 350k rail cars is just a start.
poic.v20 says:
Today, 7:44:17 PM
I see tax increases and service cuts coming. The US is between a rock and a hard place.
I see service cuts too. Not so much, tax increases. If you are paying less than your previous state, federal and local to the Gangsta Disciples and they keep you secure, that's a tax cut, right?
Good for "mp" re pointing out we have to prove to the Chinese that we are credit-worthy. 10 years ago they were nothing.
Also, little-noted was the Commerce report yesterday- most of the economy covered by this release: sales down 14% YOY, plus substract 203% for inflation:
THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2009 AT 10:00 A.M. EDT
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES
January 2009
Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for
January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0
percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January 2008.
Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an
end-of-month level of $1,440.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.1%) from December 2008 and down 1.5 percent (±0.3%) from January
2008.
Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of January was 1.43.
The January 2008 ratio was 1.25.
Total Business Inventories/Sales Ratios: 2000 to 2009 (Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes)
INTENTION TO REVISE: Revisions to the Wholesale and Retail adjusted and not adjusted monthly estimates for sales and inventories are
scheduled for release in March 2009 and April 2009, respectively. Estimates will be revised to reflect the results of the 2007 Annual
Wholesale and Annual Retail Trade Surveys. Manufacturing estimates will be revised at a later date. Revisions to the Wholesale data will be
reflected in the February 2009 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales (MTIS) release scheduled for April 14, 2009. Revisions to the
Retail data will be reflected in the March 2009 MTIS release scheduled for May 13, 2009.
American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them.
Maintenance is no longer done for a lot of commercial planes in the US.Some still is of course, but what you think. The FAA is having a real problem pulling their surprise inspections because of this.
"American Airlines has had some scary moments recently with engines that failed on takeoff. Deferred maintenance was blamed. Some of their planes probably should be mothballed until they can afford to re-fit them. "
This has been happening to American for YEARS. I know from personal experience (unfortunately). This is not due to the current economic woes.
Anybody in the mood for a poem?
The Alamo Effect
The judge had been a frightened man
Assessing in his final days
What would become of the books
The walls and walls and rooms and rooms of books
Some were first editions
A discriminating mind might consider worth more than a buck
When they found him, he had been dead
Three days. When they found him, a 22 Derringer
And four knives lay on his bedside table.
Enough food to keep him well a considerable time
I might as well be Jim Bowie. People say
I look like him
(his favorite saying)
Time was we counted on Fannin
Too many days, not enough men
(the old men say
those who have been around, have taken
their show on the road, some of those
the same roads, crossed time
and again and again and again until these random atoms
strike against each other and so-called magic happens.)
The Derringer goes off, strafing
A bailiff, a picture
Perfect afternoon: people gathering, anticipating,
Whinnying. Some caught a whiff
Of the carbide, ran back
To this place, this place
Where every possibility had been collected
A house at the corner of 6th and Bres
An office for a lawyer but a house
And that is okay
Because he once was a judge
And there was a shed outside
And a canoe--
The canoe was priced right
That would be "not what you think"
CR, you absolutely have to take into consideration Chinese New Year - particularly this year when things slowed down in the weeks ahead of spring festival. The numbers would still be bad but the impact of the week long national holiday is a major factor making February not very useful for comparison.
Member of Congress: Chairman Bernake, some of my constituents are concerned that you are running a ponzi scheme.
Chairman Bernake: Whatever gave them that idea?
Member of Congress: I don't know, but the concern is out there. Could you address the concern?
Chairman Bernanke: I can assure you that we are not running a ponzi scheme.
Member of Congress: Thank you. I yield the remainder of my time.
19th nervous breakdown says:Today, 4:54:28 PM PDT
Where is the bank failure?
Only two guiness' left, and in no shape to drive to the store for more.
19th nervous breakdown has Guiness! Let's rush him!
Seriously, afternoon BFF is a kind of "free swim" for Calculated Risk comments.
"Maintenance is no longer done for a lot of commercial planes in the US.Some still is of course, but what you think. The FAA is having a real problem pulling their surprise inspections because of this."
By that, do you mean that the maintenance is not done, or that it's done in another country.
I talked to a guy not long ago who had worked as a programmer for Ethiopian Airlines. They have a huge service facility and maintained airliners for a number of different lines. Be interesting if US lines are servicing their craft in out-of-the-way places like that. Interesting as in, glad I don't have to fly anymore.
\t
United Airlines did some of their maintenance work up until last year at the Vancouver airport (YVR), but the contract was up and they were consolidating their work to some location. Forget where it was, but probably was in America... having maintenance done in random countries to avoid union labor does happen, but I don't know how much or where exactly
"CR, you absolutely have to take into consideration Chinese New Year - particularly this year when things slowed down in the weeks ahead of spring festival. The numbers would still be bad but the impact of the week long national holiday is a major factor making February not very useful for comparison."
And this is why the already bad January numbers are even worse under the surface.
blonderengel. you ever check your comments on the poems I posted? Are you ok with it? Do you think that it ok for men to dye their hair blue?
Hi Nova! I'm absolutely o.k. with that. Blue is very becoming. And, yes, I check the comments!
sm_landlord- "Deferred maintenance was blamed."
Aw, Jesus, don't get me started on this. Many of you probably don't know that much of the major maintenance work is now being down in places like MEXICO and CHINA.
It pisses me off massively, it really does. A lot of people are going to die because of this, and that's usually the ONLY THING that will move FAA to do anything about it.
>:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o >:o
"reiterating pledges to cut the budget deficit in half in four years."
Yes, on its face it's a ridiculous claim. However, I believe Obama can do it. I think he can cut a $3 trillion deficit down to $1.5 trillion!
Hmm, Anonymous earlier talking railroad container stats was me, damn js-kit.
Since we are talking transportation stats I'm curious if people would find it useful if there was a site with more customizable graphing of railroad traffic stats than railfax?
I'm thinking about putting something like that together, giving the end user the ability to specify timeframes, what railroad, and different types of railroad traffic for the graphs. Would people find any use in this or am I the only rail nerd that looks at this sort of data?
usually the ONLY THING that will move FAA to do anything about it.
Wrong! They know. They care. They are very unhappy about it. It was politics.
Quality of parts is another big issue.
"usually the ONLY THING that will move FAA to do anything about it.
Wrong! They know. They care. They are very unhappy about it. It was politics.
Quality of parts is another big issue."
Significant tankage of air safety in the US. Hmmmm.... I wonder what affect THAT will have on the economy???
-who cares, as long as we can break that damned union stranglehold!
The biggest drop in pre-recylced metal, plastics, and paper products. Look forward to the earnings reports on those who who relied on this revenue!
"They know. They care. They are very unhappy about it. It was politics."
Well, they should damned well "un-politic" it and start sounding off before a lot of people die.
They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this country. It's a damned tragedy and few know about it.
mp,
What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?
mp said: "They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this country. It's a damned tragedy and few know about it." Just like they doid with markets, banks, etc.
"mp said: "They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this country. It's a damned tragedy and few know about it." Just like they doid with markets, banks, etc."
And they will do with health care.
USATODAY.com - United to outsource maintenance work to China
Story has a bunch of aircraft heavy maintenance outsourcing circa 2005
air canada technical services - Google News Archive Search
ACTS in Vancouver picked up a lot of work when the Loonie was cheap in the early 2000s when carriers were looking to cut costs post-2001
I think it was shut down entirely last year after losing contracts for a year. Not sure where all the work went, but a lot didn't make it back to America.
No Shipping Container Left Behind
BOYCOTT ISRAEL
ZIONISTS AND THE COMPANIES THEY OWN CAUSED THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
TWO ISRAELI PRIME MINISTERS HAVE BEEN IRREVERSIBLY (FINALLY) CONVICTED OF COMMENTING MASSACRES AGAINST CIVILIANS
IN AN ATROCIOUS VIOLATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL UN LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS
ISRAEL TORTURED 864,396 {CLOSE TO ONE MILLION} CIVILIANS TO DEATH INCLUDING :
UN EMPLOYEES WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE UN MARKED BUILDINGS
INJURED CIVILIANS REFUGEES INSIDE (UN) MARKED BUILDINGS
CHILDREN WHILE IN THEIR UNIFORMS INSIDE (UN) MARKED ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS
INJURED CIVILIANS IN HOSPITALS AND MEDICAL DOCTORS AND NURSES TOO
RED CROSS AMBULANCE PARAMEDICS WHILE IN THERE UNIFORMS IN DUTY INSIDE MARKED BUILDINGS AND MINIVANS
ISRAEL IS VIOLATING INTERNATIONAL ((UN)) LAWS AND RESOLUTIONS AND STILL
OCCUPYING ARABIC LANDS FOR DECADES
********BOYCOTT ISRAEL AND THE SUPPORTING COMPANIES********
COMPANIES TO BOYCOTT
BOYCOTT ISRAEL
love the doom pron signal to noise ratio on this thread.
"What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?"
He can't have it both ways. You and I both know why he said it.
A little leadership would be nice, you know, tell people like it is and how we're going to get from here to there, but I don't expect to see it in my lifetime.
"He can't have it both ways. You and I both know why he said it. "
You know? That pronouncement from him scared me more than any other news story this week... hell, maybe the month. That was an overt manipulation of the truth that did more than err on propaganda put forth in an obvious attempt tp manipulate the market and public opinion. Extremely frightening stuff.
The reassurances to the Chinese you mentioned earlier are a complete cluster. I'm starting to agree with you that our situation is extremely dire.
No one was surprised with my post about $359.02bn in equity mutual fund net outflows since June 2008? (according to Trimtab)
I would have thought at least 1 week since then would have made it to positive inflows
So the US is spending billions more on Homeland Security and increased security only to put everyone at greater risk due to maintenance cutbacks.
The irony.
Ah, the magic of the invisible hand boosting my standard of living to greater levels each year.
"Ah, the magic of the invisible hand boosting my standard of living to greater levels each year."
Yes, the free market solves everything! Just remove the regulations, untie the invisible hand, and let the 'lazy fairies' do the rest. The top 1% get richer and the middle class is decimated.
Any economist who still admires Milty Friedman needs to be removed from any position of policy making.
"China owns more than $727 billion of U.S. debt"
How many empty houses in the US can you buy with that kind of money? A whole bunch of gardens & gardeners.
Pessimism seems to be running high. I think the rally shall continue.
"Pessimism seems to be running high. I think the rally shall continue."
I agree, at least one more leg up, and then new lows.
"Dollar collapse would help exports."
Export to whom and what?
"Dollar collapse would help exports."
Export to whom and what?
Debt, baby, debt!
Shouldn't the pizza guy be here by now?
China is sabre rattling about our debt. There is nothing they can do to stop us from devaluing our own dollar so that we can pay our debt off much more cheaply. Its actually quite ingenious of our government and it was really inevitable. The only other option is default.
"China is sabre rattling about our debt. There is nothing they can do to stop us from devaluing our own dollar so that we can pay our debt off much more cheaply. Its actually quite ingenious of our government and it was really inevitable. The only other option is default."
Then why aren't we doing it and why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings? Your claim isn't backed up by the facts on the ground.
Ahoy mateys, Pacificshipper is now:
Welcome to The Journal of Commerce Online | Journal of Commerce
Try Lloydslist too:
Lloyd's List - Home
Tan king.
C
As long as we're on the subject of maintenance, I'd like to point out something to those of you who fly.
A few years ago, there was an extended period when no one was washing their airplanes. This may seem a minor detail to the uninitiated, but it's important.
Washing the aircraft helps line mechanics spot "smoking" rivets, meaning rivets that have worked loose. A few smokers can cause an explosive decompression.
There's an old saying that "if it looks like a piece of crap, it's probably a piece of crap."
They've screwed commercial and general aviation in this ...
BS mp. I would say more but it would have to be private.
"I am an Asian Ship's Officer just laid off. Last week our 6000 TEU containership was "Cold Laid Up" off Brunei along with about 50 other Containerships. "Cold" means no crew on board and all machinery is dead. I spoke to lay up company staff and he told me that they will look after the security of the ship for atleast about one year @ $30,000 per month. Now I have no job for the next one year I suppose. Anyway my last port of call was Long Beach and had a good look at the Car Park over there and my friend who worked on a Pure Car Carrier got laid off like me. He told me PCC is dead."
This is a great post. Thank you.
I'm mad as hell!
Hey! That's my line!
China on the US:
"“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,” Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing today after the annual meeting of the legislature. “I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”
Denninger on China:
"Uh, what part of being a banker and making loans do you think you're exempt from? Banking is a tremendously profitable enterprise, provided you're prudent; if your banking policy is simply "we'll loan you money to buy our crap" without regard for whether the borrower is overlevered or asset prices are getting totally out of rational relationships to income, then you're headed for bankruptcy as a bank, because inevitably your borrower will default."
Pretty funny, if the borrower wasn't the gov't of the USA
<i"Then why aren't we doing it"
Why do you think this?
"why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings?"
"No, sorry, Mr Premiere, you were a sucker and we're gonig to screw it" would be rude and unprofessional. The realtor NEVER admits the termites and bad plumbing were pre-existing conditions.
The fake money in treasuries now.
Ergo, holders of treasuries have to get screwed.
Dipto Fatso.
Broward, as much as you'd and others on this board would like to believe this is some devious plot by the administration there is really nothing to back up this assertion.
Every step of the way when push came to shove the US has backed off with China.
Whether it has been implicitly guaranteeing FNM/FRE debt, guaranteeing China losses via AIG, dropping human rights issues, dropping claims of currency manipulation, dropping WTO issues.
Can we default on Treasury holdings? Sure. Is there anything to lead me to believe that this would happen as anything other than a final last step? No.
Would we already be screwed economically and socially by the time we got to that point? Probably.
Interesting article that I found over at Mish's comments. Wonder if someone here has some comments about it: ContraHour: Martin Armstrong: Is It Time To Turn Out The Lights?
No, sorry. Too long to read.
What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?
I thought that this was his response to the criticism that he's trying too much reform (particularly health care) when the economy is still on life support.
Banks want G20 to set up pricey bad bank
Critics say the financial sector is holding the economy hostage
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:54 p.m. EDT March 13, 2009Comments: 22
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The world's largest financial institutions urged the G20 financial leaders on Friday to endorse the "bad bank" approach to dealing with the credit crisis, an expensive model one expert likened to another ransom note.
Lucifer writes;
"Banks want G20 to set up pricey bad bank"
"Critics say the financial sector is holding the economy hostage"
In Soviet America, the bank robs you!
Also, seen on another blog:
"So, if a customer stops by a bad bank, does the teller hold him up at gunpoint?"
What's China going to do?
They have no interest in the mortgages.
They have no interest in the flat screens and iPods.
What are they going to repo?
fdic.gov has a link to Suze Orman in the upper right corner.
"A little leadership would be nice, you know, tell people like it is "
Was thinking about this re Stewart vs. Cramer. Stewart's objections to Cramer and all the financial media are well-taken, but what about government? Hey, where's Goldilocks? Heard about nothing but her well-being for more than a year. Now? Nada. How about Paulson's 'it's all contained". How about any of the CEOs from Mozillo to Prince to O'Neal to Lewis with their deliberately misleading guidance about their own companies.
Some honesty might be nice. It could be bracing.
Broward Horne says:
Today, 8:47:39 PM
Dipto Fatso.
+1.
From what I hear around the LA & Long Beach ports, veteran longshoremen who would normally work 15-20 days per month are down to 3 or 4.
Grim.
well, the next item on our list is TRADE WAR. Let's the "fun" begin!
:-$
Maintenance is no longer done for a lot of commercial planes in the US.Some still is of course, but [not] what you think. -- Nova
I work for a very large airline here in las vegas. Provide a link for your statement. I'm calling bullshit. Don't spread rumors.
Why is Obama trying so hard to be the Hoover of our era?
whoops, the guest calling out Nova was me.
"The only other option is default."
nope, the other option is higher taxes. Default comes into a play when there are no other options.
We're gonna need a smaller boat...
Comrade Byz,
I'm reading older posts on this tread [ I actually stopped, ate dinner and chatted with wife ]. Noted your interest in shipping. You might like this:
inforMARE - Press Review
"
nope, the other option is higher taxes. Default comes into a play when there are no other options."
Exactly, higher taxes, lower services, lower SS and medicaid. And if that doesn't work some sort of agreed upon default.
fdic.gov site loads quickly ... only gives me two cookies.
"Lucifer> Why is Obama trying so hard to be the Hoover of our era?"
Not to get into it too much, but what is Obama doing that Bush didn't do? Seems like they both read the Japan playbook to me.
i cannot tell the difference either.
BFF-Is puerto rico not wired to the internet?
Just integrate the area under the curve from 1997 until the present. The result represents- Bill Clinton's sellout of the USA to China, millions of lost American jobs, and trillions in debt to buy goods from China. IT IS UNSUSTAINABLE!
also, on this smoking rivet thingy... the exec's don't fly on planes with rivets anymore. it's all carbonfiber composite's. like they care.
Unless asians unlearn mercantilism, they are f**ked.
Quality of parts is another big issue. -- Nova
you must be in the business to know info like this. give me an example of one part used by maintenance techs that has a know "quality" deficiency.
Unfortunately, I can't provide a link, but about 18 months ago, read an article in reputable publication about the problem with "counterfeit" parts (usually, mfged in the Far East).
r
Try google
I got 92,000 hits for outsourced commercial airline maintenance
Consumer Reports on Safety: Outsourcing of airline maintenance soars
"nope, the other option is higher taxes"
Higher taxes will reduce gov't income, creating an bigger problem. Likewise, cutting services will increase savings rate, reducing gov't income even more.
Yeh, I was looking into idle ships during the week, bcos had a rumor out of HK. Didn't realize they were holing up offa Brunei.
O/T - I cross-checked the Dubai airport car emporium story, ie jingle Mercs, with someone at lunch today who had just visited. Confirmed, in full. Her estimate was 3000 cars, based on parking and X x Y numbers on the block.
Old Dubai Gorge... Where endlines of capitalist DNA can be found by intrepid financial archeologists.
For those so brave.
C
and CNBC saying retail mj is $13 per gram.wtf....
"Broward, as much as you'd and others on this board would like to believe this is some devious plot by the administration there is really nothing to back up this assertion"
Please save your rather ignorant and unwarranted political quackery for somebody who cares.
10,000 thanks popeye! Evil Henry Paulson will like that too.
He's the guy who first pointed me at the Hellenic Shipping Times. I think serf Alan Greenspend was the first source of the railfax thing for me.
Will melamine boost aircraft maintenance reports?
Nova, quoted from your link, "In April, Robert Sturgell, the FAA's Acting Administrator, stated that a recent safety audit had found airlines are in 99 percent compliance with Airworthiness Directives, despite the groundings."
ot sure about that.. though the real problem is that the system has grown beyond its old control mechanisms
//Will melamine boost aircraft maintenance reports?//
"<i"Then why aren't we doing it"
Why do you think this?
"why is the White House publicly assuring China on the safety of it's USD holdings?"
"No, sorry, Mr Premiere, you were a sucker and we're gonig to screw it" would be rude and unprofessional. The realtor NEVER admits the termites and bad plumbing were pre-existing conditions.
The fake money in treasuries now.
Ergo, holders of treasuries have to get screwed.
Dipto Fatso."
Broward, what you have just described is a devious plan. Your own words.
"Please save your rather ignorant and unwarranted political quackery for somebody who cares."
Obviously you do care or you wouldn't have replied. It sure looks like your describing a devious plan.
The problem is that we are flying a modern airliner(our economy) with the instruction manual of a WW1 biplane (old ideas on economics and control), and won't use the new manual because of our "cherished" beliefs.
No bank failures? I was so looking foreward to BankUnited.
you may say 99% ain't good enough. i want 100%.
that's the goal. flying is safe. i fly all the time and am usually asleep before the plane even takes off. i have all the juicy inside info also. i know the guys that service the planes.
Why have there been so many crashes lately?
Is it possible that Wen's statements are simply an attempt to drive down Treasury prices?
If I knew I was committed to purchasing, say, $1 trillion of some asset over the next year or two, and it was trading at all-time high valuations, I might make public noises trying to scare others away from it.
Just a thought.
emo @ 9:17
mmmm, no. If they drove down Treasury prices, they would be shooting the several trillion they already own in the foot. It would only increase the interest rate on new issues they bid for.
"I gonna cut this here Deficit in half, by crack-y!"
Hilarious. Only a True Believer could keep a straight face through that one.
Extra: Can Bush cut the deficit in half? - MSN Money
"President Bush has taken the pledge, promising to cut the federal budget deficit in half by 2008"
Go Obushma!
@sneeringnihilist
There are a lot of counterfeit parts floating around. FAA put out an AD about it a couple of years ago and brings the subject up frequently in the circulars, especially concerning standard hardware items.
Interesting take Nemo, might that also be why China has been playing tag with US research vessels in International waters? Try to stir the pot and get everyone else nervous?
Wen's statement was public. Obama's reassurance was public. That tells me the whole thing is a stunt. Maybe to drive down prices, maybe political points with the people for Wen.
There are a lot of counterfeit parts floating around. FAA put out an AD about it a couple of years ago and brings the subject up frequently in the circulars, especially concerning standard hardware items. -- mp
i don't know any ground techs that would put equipment on ground vehicles (tugs, bag carts, etc) that they thought might fail, let alone the aircraft guys.
A west coast bank will go down? It's now 9:25 eastern,
and FDIC doesn't like to work late?
3 posts eaten. A personal best
"FDIC doesn't like to work late?"<br/><br/> Sheila is tired from bullshitting all week.
""Think that's bad? Watch the Mojave Spaceport for mothballed aircraft. Double scary. [I don't have an easy reference to their storage inventory, just scuttlebutt.]"" Rob Dawg
There are a couple of other huge aicraft storage facilites in Arizona, around the town of Marana. They are visible from the freeway, and doubtless google earth. One near Marana is for private aircraft, and is normally full of 'name brands' like Alaska, etc. The other one nearer to southern Tucson has mostly military aircraft. There used to be another military storage field near Douglas - it was unfenced, and we used to play in the bombers when I was a young kid. Memories.
3 posts eaten. A personal best
New Thread: Friday is Cancelled
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/friday-is-cancelled.html ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.
First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?
Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to Mibbit IRC client widget then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.
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--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot
CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.
fdic.gov is getting slow to load!
I think the FDIC is leashed this week. Don't want to upset the feel-good press with a bank seizure.
What was your take on Obama's "this downturn isn't as bad as we think it is" talk from yesterday?
There goes the neighborhood.
ENCOR is running Road Warrior - Mad Max 1 right now. Pretty apt - and strangely evocative.
-K
Interesting to note the explosive growth in imports versus the anemic rise in exports. Of course that doesn't even take into account the imports of illegal drugs or the exports of toxic assets.
The downward move is indeed stunning, yet....for the previous 2 years, Feb vs Jan was down roughly 25-26%, that neighborhood, so down 35% is like down about 10%, which corresponds interestingly to the very rough decline in consumption.
err...whoops, that is for 2004, 2006, the previous worst. yikes.
Jan traffic in LA Port was BOOSTED by lifting of China apparel quota Jan 1, 2009. I got a 20ft container quote last week Ningbo to La $900.00
so, this chart depicts extreme seasonality in this indicator - sure, this year was worse than normal, but if the last 5 years are any indication, expect a gian pop in the next 3 months, no?...