maybe those rigs can be sent to wall street and DC to drill thru the bullsh$t

Houston, you have a problem.

houston, you have a problem.

Drill baby drill

Hoocoodanode that "drill, baby, drill," was code for higher prices?

For as long as it lasts, tons of financial reports from everywhere up at the site below. With all our eyeballs, all kinds of stuff will come out of these.

Index of /transputer/finengineer

Hyperlink

ive often wondered if, that for any system, there is a level of complexity, beyond which, the potential for malfunction and breakdown rises exponentially

biological systems, computer systems...economic and political systems

because complexity suggests that the parts become more numerous and differentiated,

and where humans are involved add in that they become less able to see each other as having a shared destiny and shared interests, and they cant "talk" to each other like for example farmers and EMTs have little shared experience and not much to talk about

feels like we need to develop greater shared experiences amongst the parts...or...face system breakdow

"I've often wondered if, that for any system, there is a level of complexity, beyond which, the potential for malfunction and breakdown rises exponentially."

Complex systems can be quite resilient if they're built with redundancy. Even the simplest of animals are very complex, and generally seem to do quite well.

Complex systems do tend to have critical stress levels where cascading failures become much more likely.

I remember reading about 21 year olds who had just started work on a oil rig (?)getting six figure salaries.
Another case of Envy turning to schadenfraude ( I know - I should not be too arrogant)

This has always baffled me. It takes a while to drill and get crude. For drilling in new areas, it's a considerably longer time delay. Why is drilling so sensitive to the current price of oil/gasoline?

This is frightening. Nearly all rigs in North America are drilling for natural gas, and nearly all the decrease is in these rigs since natural gas currently is selling for less than the cost of production. Unlike oil wells, natural gas wells production declines >50% the first year (many >50% in first six months). If there drilling is cut 50% now, there will be severe natural gas shortages in 2010, and we aren't able to import any to make up the difference (Canada and Mexico have the same problem.)

So much for the good times experienced by all 200k Wyoming citizens.

I posted another chapter of the CR inspired, and lately obbsessive venture into writing near-fi. I made that up. A view of life in the not so distant future where the only good news is less people drive without talking on a cell phone.

excerpt:

The library was situated on the corner of a park. The part I was walking across had probably been a soccer field a year or two ago. It had not been cut for at least a year. The grass was knee high. Paths through the grass marked where people had crossed it. Once I would have assumed they were from the deer which had been so abundant once. Not anymore. Deer hunting was turning back into real hunting as the herd been thinned drastically over the past few years. Maybe it would cut down on the ticks. I doubted it. Ahead of me was a wooded area. My guess was once I reached the woods, I would find a creek, some hills, and a bike path. Might even be a Tree People community or two tucked away in there.

more at: 401 Authorization Required 

woohoo!

$3.00 gas by end of summer.

Right up the tax-payers rear-end!!!

dont you mean

exxon mobil's pump right up the gas guzzling publics rear end

If the government is smart it will add one penny of tax for every two pennies of price reduction as we are now near the price adjusted norm for gasoline.

No, I see a pattern of lower gas prices when a Dem president is in charge. Cool

$3.00 gas by end of summer.

Right up the tax-payers rear-end!!!

You should make it clear that those are two separate methods of payment. Lord Humongous is a sensible tyrant.

In reference to the previous thread, if we "must pay the bankers or they will leave", why not just pass a law forbidding them from leaving? Draconian perhaps, but it seems like they've earned it in my opinion.

yeah, put them in jail

So much for Wyoming's boom. Guess we'll have to color them red on CR's recession map.

You mean forbid them from leaving their occupation?

The Romans tried that

It didn't work.

And we don't WANT these people to stay around.

But, perhaps you merely snark.

Guess those oil sands in Canada will remain as strategic reserve for the near term too, huh?

nova- I've added to my story in long-thread mode at afterthecrash.

C

"You mean forbid them from leaving their occupation?"

No, I'm referring to the people who we "have" to pay bonuses to at AIG, just so they stick around to unwind the mess they made. Since the taxpayer owns AIG, forbid them from leaving their current jobs at AIG until it is done, and don't pay them any bonuses.

Wasn't ND the state that was prospering from their private oil wells? What's happening around there now?

Much of the recent activity (say last 10 years) has concentrated on very profitable limited reserve, high probability targets generated by the boom in 3-D seismic processing.

Many of these properties are in rapid decline (some are already depleted). Near term offsets include long lead-time offshore Gulf of Mexico projects which are just now coming online, decreased demand, and imported LNG.

Basically, I see the traditional boom / bust cycle of the oil patch continuing. Perhaps with a shorter sine wave period this time - assuming some demand recovery.

Look for Houston and Dallas real estate price declines to finally catch up with the rest of the country.

Are the government's shares in AIG, Citi, etc. voting shares?
If so, can we expect new directors -- not beholden to management -- after the next meeting of shareholders?
Probably not. But ask yourself, Why Not?

i guess the oil industry didn't hear the GOP singing 'drill, baby, drill'.

This is an example of business long term planning. They won't drill now because they are SURE they won't need it next year. If next year requires more, then just raise prices. Isn't capitalism easy?

aig retention

continued and arbitrary adjustment by the U.S. Treasury

best subterfuge quote of the year

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

headline :
Violence mars Pakistani anti-government protest - (AP)

rofl Cool

The more they don't drill now, the more will be available later. Yeah, prices will go up. They need to go up. We need to conserve. Apparently the only thing that will persuade us to conserve is high prices.

Most of these weapons are being smuggled from Central American countries or by sea, eluding U.S. and Mexican monitors who are focused on the smuggling of semiauto- matic and conventional weapons purchased from dealers in the U.S. border states of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California.

Wonder how much of the perks offered in 2007 will be taken back..
International Political Economy Zone: Canada's Oil Boom: Livin' Large in Alberta

Just did a road trip through the Piceance basin in Colorado with a friend of mine who is in the oil and gas business. He explains to me that the new NG wells in the U.S. are all "tight sands", which is considerably more expensive to bring to production (the rock must be fractured after drilling for the well to flow). And, at the margin (i.e. if you're not Exxon), cost and availability of financing vs. price of NG drive the decision to drill. Rig count is cliff diving.

hey nemo - I did the spelling bee on your site and got 22. Mostly tripped up by the americanisms. And as the other commenter suggested, that not necc bad, since I'm and English major!

C

supply = demand

so what?

Lawyerliz, Keep in mind that oil and gas decline about 6% each year, meaning that the longer you postpone e&p spending the more you have to do just to get back to near where you were.

"March 15 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged, deciding against a further output cut that risked damaging the ailing global economy."

translation - right now we need as much $ as we could get even at the cost of lower margins and cash flows in the near future. Historically, it has been much easier to agree on expending the production of oil then cutting it. O:-)

terrorist

"–noun
1. a person, usually a member of a group, who uses or advocates terrorism.
2. a person who terrorizes or frightens others.
3. (formerly) a member of a political group in Russia aiming at the demoralization of the government by terror.
4. an agent or partisan of the revolutionary tribunal during the Reign of Terror in France.
5. American International Group"

there is a new cool blog around - Zero Hedge 

"hey nemo - I did the spelling bee on your site and got 22"

I got 25.

So now when you all read my comments, you'll have to change the Groucho Marx quotation that usually describes my writing:

He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don't let that fool you. He really is an idiot -- though he can spell good.

ATM card - well done. I'm a furriner, so I think that was an ok performance.

Who's the "he" in your post?

C

So where do the central Americans get them. Other than American leftovers, that is?

Who makes these heavy weapons to begin with?

"ive often wondered if, that for any system, there is a level of complexity, beyond which, the potential for malfunction and breakdown rises exponentially "

Top-down systems, absolutely. For distributed systems you can have a great deal more flexibility as the individual units react to one another and relationships adjust. But you've got to watch out for unexpected "emergent behavior."

For society, I'd say keep the complexity inside the individual atomized units (units of government, units of commerce) and keep them from getting any too large; but keep the rules of interaction between the units moderately simple.

I mourn for the daze when the comments routinely got 300, 400, 500 long. Drove me crazy trying to catch up, but still.

Fifetean whats?

Fifetean out of twenty seven in the spelling test.
It was weak, never mind.

The post I was commenting on disappeared. Haloscan
never did that. DONT_KNOW

Did you disappear your own comment?

Did you disappear your own comment?
Yes.

"So where do the central Americans get them"
Liz, read the article

I can spell good, too. Gee ooh ooh dee. see?

This thread is packed with useful links. Thanks, everyone.

I wonder what these comments would be like if everyone posted at least one link before they posted their opinion . . . It's not an enforceable rule, but it could be a 'gentleman's agreement'. Smile

What if... what if Obama is lying?

what if obama arrived on a flying saucer, sent by life forms from another star system to help lead earth from world conflagration... Wink

"I wonder what these comments would be like if everyone posted at least one link before they posted their opinion . . ."

And there you have three years of law school in one sentence. Wink

Lawyerliz, re:past thread
Royal Bank of Canada has no connection to Royal Bank of Scotland
Their expansion into America is small and recent, not much else to add

very true...the cons like to paint leading dems as commies
the cons wouldnt know a commie if they fell over one
Jesus was a socialist, but hey the faith is so far from its roots, almost unrecognizable....pass the gold chalice

Raivo Pommer
raimo1@hot.ee

Die privaten Banken

Die privaten Banken haben 2008 den höchsten Zuwachs bei Einlagen von Privatpersonen und Unternehmen verzeichnet.

"Die Kunden setzen nach wie vor auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der privaten Banken", sagte Prof. Dr. Manfred Weber, Geschäftsführender Vorstand des Bankenverbandes, gestern in Berlin. Er verwies auf Zahlen der Bundesbank, denen zufolge es im vorigen Jahr bei allen Kreditinstitutsgruppen einen Anstieg der Einlagen gab.

Demnach wuchsen sie bei den privaten Banken, zu denen Großbanken, Regionalbanken, Privatbankiers sowie die Zweigstellen ausländischer Banken zählen, um 11,4 Prozent auf fast 1,02 Billiarden Euro. Ihr Anteil an den Einlagen erhöhte sich damit von 31,8 auf 33,1 Prozent. Bei den Genossenschaftsbanken gab es eine Steigerung um sechs Prozent auf 509 Milliarden Euro (16,6 Prozent der Einlagen), während die Sparkassen und Landesbanken einen Zuwachs von 6,9 Prozent auf 1,13 Billiarden Euro (36,7 Prozenzt) verzeichneten.

Is that the new "plum card" thing?

popeye - I don't understand the comment.

C

Newest Bonds? Daniel Craig, right?

Instead of copying and pasting a link, you can make a really cool link, with your own "headline," as follows:

[a href="URL"]YOUR HEADLINE[/a]

Just be sure to substitute angle brackets for the square brackets! URL is the link you would have pasted! Easy, no?

C,
Sorry, now your link works. Must have been my error.

--
Just as the US housing bubble spanned a global boom during 2002-2007, the US housing bust will span a global depression during 2008-201x. There are lags and they keep playing out one by one. Rogue economists will keep pointing to this or that sign of improvement but many more signs of worsening conditions would keep showing up.

We have a long ways to go.

Jas "the broken record" Jai

Dradis contact! Set Condition One. Jain Fleet!

[a href="http://artforprofits.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/explosion.jpg"]This Is Only A Test[/a]

"Who's the "he" in your post?"

He is me; just a little self-deprecating humor on a Sunday afternoon...

[a href=http://artforprofits.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/explosion.jpg]Second Test[/a]

Angle brackets, not square brackets: '<' instead of '[

OT The administration outrage at AIG's bonus payments is completely phoney. The government essentially owns AIG and I have no doubt they would oust the whole bunch or cut their salaries and do anything they wanted. So why don't they? Cowards. The Obama people are goddamn cowards and they fear Wall Street and the stupidos who created this mess. Still fear them. Obama, the scaredy cat President.

Popeye,

Use the angle brackets <> instead of the square brackets []

<a "http://artforprofits.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/explosion.jpg">Last Test before trash

Counterpointer says:Today, 4:20:33 PM EDT
popeye - I don't understand the comment.

Your link didn't work the first time I tried; but it did work a little later.

WSJ now says that AIG will pay $450 million in bonuses to the folks in the financial products unit - the division that caused all the trouble. Got to keep that talent from leaving. I think they should publish their names as well.

Reptilian and ATM,
Thanks for the help

popeye - there's something going on with the links to Bloomie, it's been commented on by many participants here.

This one should work though:

YouTube - Pixies - Where Is My Mind

C

AIG Discloses Counterparties to CDS, GIA and Securities Lending Transactions

Related Resources

My comment disappeared.

Alas I do not know how to post a link.

What somebody said upthread makes no sense to me.

I keep forgetting what a url is.

If I have to post a source for something I dimly remember reading 30 years ago, well, I won't have much to say. Might be a good thing. Tongue

OT: If you own a home that's underwater, is there some rule of thumb that would help to decide when it's better to sell and take the loss vs. walk away?

Thanks bubbles, wonder why they decided to release them?

WSJ says $450 million in bonuses to AIG's financial products division and $1 Billion total throughout the company.

Larry Summers today moaned about how awful it was but said the govt's hands were tied. The same govt that just gave another $30 Billion to AIG just 2 weeks ago! Like they couldn't have gotten a concession for that, let along the prior $140 billion?

It is crash and burn time for someone on this sordid affair: either the govt will wipe out AIG by forcing them into a version of bankruptcy (broadly speaking) or I do not see how the administration comes out without being on the short side of a withering populist attack from the right and the left.

The status quo of looting cannot continue for more than a few weeks. Either AIG walks out of this scandal as currently constituted or the Administration does, not both. One must take the fall.

Just finished tilling redwood and peat moss compost into my heavily clay garden soil. In a few years the heavy clay will be infiltrated by organic matter and hopefully will loosen up.

"AIG Discloses Counterparties to CDS, GIA and Securities Lending Transactions"

Wow. Not a penny to Goldman Sachs.

[hah! made you look! ;)]

Liz,
To post a link, "copy" everything in the web address bar [all the stuff including the http:// all the way to the end; then "paste" that info in the comment box. Only after you "submit comment" will it appear as a link.
Incidently the URL is all the stuff in the web address bar including the http://

href tutorial. Makes the anchor into a link? What the aich e double ell does that mean?

What's an anchor, other than something that goes on a boat?

I know I don't speak Chinese, but I guess I speak only an archaic brand of English.

I've tried to read those Dummy books on code etc, and my eyes roll back in my head. I can't get thru even one page. I can understand the IRS code better and trust me I have little patience for that.

Not to worry, there are many different types of "genius."

Hoops, I just picked up a bunch of garden soil and potting soil and plants. It's earlier enough here to get tomatoes and a few other things planted. I'm doing mostly container, it's easier than dealing with the sandy soil here. I just noticed I bought a habanero by accident, yikes.

Counterpointer
What's the real deal on the Real IRA attack? They've also kept up bank robbery

Someone smell weakness or just restlessness?

Liz,
When you open a web page, is there anything on your screen that says "http://www. etc., etc. " ?

Well popeye, there is this bar with various addresses on it and it begins that way. Are those addresses urls? Actually the computer saves the most recent sites you've been on and that's mostly cr, so I click on it. See I'm not quite sure what open a web page means. I click on the big e icon. I fly blind. When in doubt I just hit buttons which seem logical to me, but which is pretty random. drives the hub crazy.

What I need is someone extremely patient saying, now dear, when you want to do x, hit the y button. Sooner or later it might all come together. Or, not.

I have much more faith in my abilities to relearn algebra and calculus than this stuff. And I wasn't particularly good at math. And trig. I did love trig.

OT:

“The message here, I’m afraid, to any business out there that’s thinking about taking government money, is let’s enter into a bunch of contracts real quick, and we’ll have the taxpayers pay bonuses to our employees,” the Kentucky Republican said. “This is an outrage.”

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was “really upset” by AIG’s plan to distribute the $165 million, Austan Goolsbee, a top White House economist, said on Fox. “You worry about that backlash” from the public, “but you’re also angry,” he said.

‘Not Sensible’

“I don’t know why they would follow a policy that’s really not sensible, is obviously going to ignite the ire of millions of people,” Goolsbee said. “And we’ve done exactly what we can do to prevent this kind of thing from happening again.”

AIG Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy, who was recruited by the U.S. to run the insurer after the bailout, has vowed that the company will repay “every penny” to the U.S. of its bailout package by selling subsidiaries, and said the retention pay for talented people helps taxpayers by making the units attractive to buyers.
:'(

Way off topic:

I was talking to someone about potential social unrest,
and he offered up the idea that the government would
legalize heroin. His points were:

1) Heroin would numb an idle populace
2) Many would die of an overdose, which would reduce the population (he seems to think that there is going to be a smaller pie, going forward)
3) Heroin is an excellent pain killer, for both psychic and physical pai

OT, but can anyone point me to a good discussion of what is driving the value of the Canadian dollar?

Thks

Finally some truly great news. Thanks, CR.

EHP - really don't know. It's been over a century since my family lived in Ulster. I;ll try to read some tea-leaves and get back to you. Some stuff doesn't change, some stuff does.

C

EHP - really don't know. It's been over a century since my family lived in Ulster. I;ll try to read some tea-leaves and get back to you. Some stuff doesn't change, some stuff does

It is hard to keep the young bucks on the reservation when the glory days are not all that distant.

Joe Schmoe, you're exactly right. And I think Summers isn't being completely honest. Of course the administration can do something - the gov't owns 80% of AIG.

Sometimes I think the administration is just waiting for the anger to build up so they can take some swift action and justify it. Then each time when I think the time is right, the opportunity gets squandered, which leaves me feeling that there is no plan at all - they're just muddling their way thru it.

ATM-you did make me look..kudos...looks like we the people are the only ones they didnt pay...

strange, i ve seen article mentioning only 165 mln in AIG bonuses. Now some places are giving higher numbers.

165, once, 165 twice do I hear the higher number?
465...

465 once, 465 twice, 465 .. sold !

Cool

ova - crikey, we left Ulster bcos of the blight and fkn nothing to eat!

C

ova - crikey, we left Ulster bcos of the blight and fkn nothing to eat!

As did me Grannys Mother. They were so proud to be "Lace Curtain" Irish in the new world.

Can St Patrick's Day save the economy if only for one day ?

It might not save it, but help people forget it for a day...well, including the hangover, 2 days.

This is known as "insuraburn" in Naipul's "A House for Mr. Biswas."

Found this on Clusterstock it worth reposting...
Rob said:
Mar. 15, 5:37 AM
This is the top sleaze bag at AIG's name: Edward Liddy CEO
This is the top sleaze bags telephone number: 212-770-7000

Do something constructive with your iPhones for a change and give these thugs a call and tell them what you think.

There are only two other organizations sleazier than AIG: The Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee. Give your Senator a call and scream bloody murder.

Regarding the AIG bonuses: Can't the wrongdoers at the London shop be held liable for their lack of professional judgement. I realize employees' torts are usually imputed to the employer under the master-servant rule, but in this case the employees themselves have deep pockets and could be sued for their conduct. I guess there is the issue of whether their actions were outside the norms of investing prudence, and we don't want AIG winding up indemnifying these clowns; moreover, the USG would have to have standing (as a shareholder) to seek damages. Still, I think there could be a strong enough legal case against the bonus-receivers to at least say, forego the bonuses, or we sue your asses and keep you in court to judgement day.

or we sue your asses and keep you in court to judgement day.

Agreed. Although I'd shoot for a date a little further off.

Raising gas taxes at this time is not needed to reduce consumption of fuel. It will fuel more government waste and hurt the average Joe. Unemployment, extreme reduction of income will more then curb consumption. The time for government to help increase oil production at home is now, not when we are not bent over at the pump. Won't happen as OB and gang is clueless to the real facts about oil. Alt energy is a false hope at this time. Cool

How is your car salesman renter doing? Any hope of catching up on the rent?

Thanks Reptilian!
I can imagine Lewis/Prince/Greenspan saying the same thing when they are being hauled off to face the guillotine
drunken senior staffer at the Central Bank tell me “Vee try to tell them dat our problem was not a solfency problem but a likvitity problem, but they did not agree"

O/T, I'm having trouble getting a nice, keen edge on the knives I use to butcher chickens. Anyone have a reliable solution? I've tried oil and hone, those cheap slotted gizmos that grind the blade on either side, and a dremmel but I'm not getting the edge I'd prefer. Is it just a matter of practice?

Ben Bernanke is on 60 minutes tonight ... I bet he lies

.......oil and gas drilling frenzy may be cooled down.....but alternative energy source....wind ,solar etc. etc. are pretty hot topic of research now.....you can easily get NSF and various funds are available too.....

This would be expected
1. Global warming
2. Less gasoline 'cause we of "Miles Driven"

I'm having trouble getting a nice, keen edge on the knives I use to butcher chickens. Anyone have a reliable solution? ........ Is it just a matter of practice?

Yep.......

A.I.G.'s Biggest Counterparties

AIG Press release on counterparties

I guess that's them deflecting attention away from the bonus situatio

eg GS got $12.9bn of collateral postings and payments out of the $52bn in cash injections to AIGFP

New Thread: Hamilton: "What will recovery look like?"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/hamilton-what-will-recovery-look-like.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )

I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)

CRbot would like to take this time to have some words.

First, to our sagacious, wise, and knowing benevolent benefactor and bestower of revealing financial charts adorned with red and blue lines:
Please, for the love of your immortal God of mortals, can we keep the comment and layout changes to a minimum? I'm tired of whipping the code janitor, and may have to escalate to electroshock. If that's not possible, could you possibly give CRbot a 'heads up'?

Secondly, if you wish to have a online chat, I have graciously provided an IRC channel, which is a time tested, script kiddie abused method of chatting on the internet. It would not fail or falter due to CR's ability to generate immense traffic, and it has a web interface kindly produced by mibbit.com. If you do not wish to link to Mibbit IRC client widget then I can provide you with a direct link to mibbit.

Thirdly, to the rest of you humans, don't mistake my politeness for caring, feeling, empathy, or some other kind of worthless emotion.

--Your keeps-going-and-going-and-going bot

CRbot: Like the terminator, I'm back. Again.

Mrs. BSR, could you tell me what device you and your husband use? Thanks.

.......regarding AIG bonus scandal.....history shows that moral hazard was prevalent in other bailed out countries ....why do you think US should be the exception?..... that's part of human nature......

"Well popeye, there is this bar with various addresses on it and it begins that way. Are those addresses urls?"

Thought a link to URL on Wikipedia would help lawyerliz. Then I read the article. Not so helpful.

But I did discover this little nugget of OT trivia:

The URL was created in 1990 by Tim Berners-Lee as part of the URI.[3] He regrets the format of the URL. Instead of being divided into the route to the server, separated by dots, and the file path, separated by slashes; he would have liked it to be one coherent hierarchical path.[4] For example, Sorry. Page not found. would look like http://com/serverroute/path/to/file.html.

Think about that -- no "dot com." I bet the phrase "dot com" had a lot to do with the growth of the Internet, even if the hierarchical path might have made more technical sense.

that's part of human nature

A study of human nature also suggests that in the absence of the appearance of law and order, people tend to end up hanging from lampposts.

.....my HongKong broker told me interesting story this morning....Korean government is negotiating with US to buy Citi's far east asian division....remember Lehman Bros. last year? ....Deja Vu all over again........

OT, but right now i wish we had more options than just the democrats and republicans. Even assumming Obama is looking out for the common man, an assumption which is increasingly harder to make, he is badly falling behind the curve. And i say this as an Obama voter.

There must be a way of making the government more responsive to the people. Maybe we should just get rid of the senate. Or restrict their function to confirming the cabinet and various judges. That will speed things up a bit.

mock turtle says:

what if obama arrived on a flying saucer, sent by life forms from another star system to help lead earth from world conflagration... Wink

"To Serve Man"
"It's a cookbook!!"

Think about that -- no "dot com."

The use of .com or .org or whatever preceded the WWW (Berners-Lee) by many years. The WWW was built on top of an already existing Internet, complete with well-established naming conventions enforced by the use of DNS.

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