Credit Crisis Indicators

It's the week-over-week change that really matters.

I notice Fiscal Responsibility Fluid is approaching $49/bbl today.

I wonder whether these numbers are being distorted by the Fed's activity as lender of last resort.

Thats what a lot of people claim. Either way I think thats what they want so its working right?

Must be a rogue trader.

None of them IS increasing. All of them ARE not increasing. Sexy

Wall Street is now creating CDCO like structures to participate in the TALF. The financial engineers just can’t help themselves.
TALF Is Reworked After Investors Balk - WSJ.com

Do sheeple buy Baa bonds?

@r0m30:<br/>Wow. Just W-O-W. I know I am not suppose to hate the player, but hate the game. I'm just amazed that I'm still being amazed at what is going on in this little game of grab@ss.

Who would have known that Tom Stone-a CR regular was a world class surfer...Now you know..

YouTube - 5 Summer Stories-1972 Surfing-♪ Beach Boys

tom meet at Ocean Beach on a fun day with your longboard...I surfed in your area Salmon Creek and didnt like the feel of being part of food chain...too sharky....

Happy St. Patty's day to all..

Thanks cd,The Tom Stone pictured is actually a relative,and one of Eldridge Cleaver's Bastards(No I am not joking).I do live within 20 minutes of Salmon Creek and agree with you on the sharks.

I added more to my CR inspired, near-fi story of life after the crash (American Apocalypse)

excerpt:

The problem was how faceless Corporate America was. There was no focus for the rage. That was until the blog post by “Paine.”

He or she advocated “Burning it down.” The reasoning, which made sense to a lot of people, was to deny the pigs their profit were ever possible. There was no way the average citizen was going to make it through the security systems the really rich had in place. Plus, how could you identify the right people? So the logic was, “Kill the Monster.” Deny the corporations their source of life; profits. They built an empty shopping mall with your money. Burn it down! They are going to take your house? Burn it down! Burn down the banks! Burn down the office parks that don’t have a job for you. They built a luxury home development. Burn it down!

more, including a new post from Max at 401 Authorization Required 

it's always a great day to be a synthetic cdo in a banksters super-duper siv, go ted spread

Wlcome to the sureal..first acocunting standards gone, now Tier 1 restrictions delayed...

"The Federal Reserve Board has announced the adoption of a final rule that delays until March 31, 2011, the effective date of new limits on the inclusion of trust preferred securities and other restricted core capital elements in tier 1 capital of bank holding companies (BHCs). This action is being taken in light of continued stress in financial markets and the efforts of BHCs to increase their overall capital levels. "

Wall Street is being Served. Oh it's On. Wall Street Vs. Main Street. It's time for the grudge match of the century. Main Street is obligated to give 12 trillion dollars in tax payer bailouts and Wall Street funnels millions of that money in bonuses? Oh it's ON. Wall Street is going down.

Anytime that I need a touch of sanity, I read CR. Graphs, reasoned, calm analysis of a world that makes sense...to CR.

Then I go back to the news. 4 bailouts to AIG who are paying foreign banks. Suspending the rules of accounting. Pallets of money controlled by some private enterprise and a bearded guy that says he can increase money by manipulating digits. A financially beleagured Canada that wants to pay Afghanistan police for two years as one of Canada's largest cities is besieged by gangs.

But, but...I think I now have it all figured out. They are all suffering from the first stage of Mad Cow disease and cannot reason properly any more.

Only vegetarians with pitchforks will survive!

Watch the politicans closely...any signs of slurred speech and staggering?

i noticed elmo spanked kermit yesterday. what happened to the great bull run of the century? fizzled before 8 handle?

Kermit vs. Elmo steel cage deathmatch today

I'm not sure TED spreads are a good measure of anything other than "What is the Gov't Buying This Week"

CR's post shows what planet I am from I think all those statistics are meaningless noise and this is the only function to watch. The backwardation in silver. My belief is global trade is based on the idea that a country's currency fiat money can buy gold and silver if they choose. No wonder that I am going to wind up living under a bridge some day.

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary/2009-03-15.html

Do sheeple buy Baa bonds? Yes some of us do.

Right now I'm listening to the tune of Spanish Radio. It might appear GS and two others are well on thier way for K support...

FDIC extends debt-guarantee program until October

FDIC extends debt-guarantee program until October - MarketWatch

my word of the year...EXTEND...

a favorite of the ladies also....

"There is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program." Wink

an email just sent to the prez by yours truly

"Dear Mr. President Obama,

I am appalled that Treasury and the office of the President of the United States have not yet found a way to halt the payment of bonuses to AIG executives who ran the CDS and related derivatives operations that gamed and crashed our financial system.

All the claims about the sanctity of contracts won't wash with the American people! Contracts are contested, litigated and modified everyday in America.

As taxpayers we own 80 percent of this company. We need to go in there halt, all bonus payments, separately incorporate the hedge fund and derivatives portion of AIG from the rest of the company.

Then the treasury secretary needs to make it clear to this new AIG sub entity, that failure to return bonuses may result in the withdrawal of TARP money.

Furthermore the FBI and IRS should investigate all bonus recipients to see if they paid their taxes properly on these and previous bonuses.

Finally the details of the contracts authorizing the bonuses should be reviewed by justice department and litigation begun for failure to exercise due diligence and for fraud as these bonuses were arranged as the funds in question were clearly without sufficient collateral and were imploding.

We have a crime here...lets prosecute!

Sincerely,
Mock Turtle

(no i didnt sign my handle Tongue)

Clear and concise. Add to that, the taxpayer is prepared to exercise their 7th amendment rights in a tax revolt for government failure of it's fiduciary responsibility to the tax payer. Send BO this link also;
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury

Apprentice,

you know why men can't get mad cow disease?

because were pigs....

good bar joke when talking to the ladies...they laugh and then look at each other while nodding their heads...

Do sheeple buy Baa bonds?
I keep mine at the Cloven Hoof Credit Unio

TED Spread is a survey....it's based on the same mantra as "trust me".....you know when you go to buy a used car.

Most of these indicators are highly suspect as they can and are manipulated at will.

Wake me when real people have access to real money at something other than + 20 basis points once you fill out your name.

Ciao
MS

"
I am appalled that Treasury and the office of the President of the United States have not yet found a way to halt the payment of bonuses to AIG executives who ran the CDS and related derivatives operations that gamed and crashed our financial system. "

Understandable rage, but the AIG bonus issue is just a sideshow. The rage will burn out or redirect itself.

Now if the American people ever fully understood what was going on, the rage will never end until the system does.

The level of Rage,Fear and irrationality in my Part of Sonoma county has grown noticeably in the last few weeks.It will be getting interesting,soon.

"WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D- Mont., suggested Tuesday that he and other lawmakers will pressure the Internal Revenue Service to impose hefty excise taxes on bonuses paid to executives of American International Group Inc. (AIG) that have stirred outrage.

"We need to find out the answer to this question: What is the highest excise tax we can impose that is sustainable in court?" Baucus said to IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman during a hearing Tuesday."

I'll save the Senate staffers some work. Go to
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/02inpetr.pdf page 219. The highest peacetime margin tax bracket was 92%, in 1954. Ought to be able to make 92% stick in court. And, glad to see you here at Calculated Risk.

Nemo's right. We're long past relevancy in using prior year comparables.

...Investors in some of these cases are entitled to a "theft loss" deduction, not subject to the limits on normal capital losses from investments, according to the IRS guidelines...The theft loss deduction can be taken in the year a fraud is discovered, except to the extent an investor has a reasonable prospect of recovery of the lost money, Shulman said...."Some taxpayers have argued that they should be permitted to amend tax returns for years prior to the discovery of the theft to exclude the phantom income and receive a refund of tax in those years," Shulman testified. The new IRS guidelines do not address that argument, he said....
Search - Global Edition - The New York Times

Does the deduction require a conviction, ya think?

Rest assured, ALL wall street bonus guarantee contracts are predicated such that the employees will not act in a manor that warrants termination for cause.

If bankrupting your company to the tune of $160 billion does not warrant a termination for cause, then I don't know what does.

There is no presumption of "performance" for any affected employees in the context of a $160 billion failure.

The bonuses should be scuttled and/or clawed back.

Obama is looking the other way while the banksters loot the treasury.

The biggest swindle in history continues. It is now our "growth" industry.

Let us all take a brief moment and bow our heads to St. Patrick and thank him for driving the snakes from Ireland. He was a truly great man and he deserves to be honored with sloppy drunkeness and vomit. Where did the snakes go? St. Paddy, please drive the snakes from the United States. We promise to honor your memory by continuing to drink excessively and worshipping the porcelain god.

suggested Tuesday that he and other lawmakers will pressure the Internal Revenue Service to impose hefty excise taxes on bonuses paid to executives of American International Group Inc. (AIG) that have stirred outrage.

Make the taxes rate on wall street bonuses 125%. Then pay them more than they bargained for! A win win!

Know THAT would turn the TARP into an investment!

Tom- I agree, Salmon Creek is pretty sharky. I officially live in Sonoma County (Kenwood), but actually live in Marin. The outrage is starting to be noticed, as even the bewildered herd knows something is wrong.
I haven't surfed on a regular basis since leaving Maui.

Tom-np..I'll hoist a green beer 4 ya today..salmon creek-2 years ago-seal popped up right next to board thus food chain comment..month or 2 later some guy got bit by our friend Whitey...

regarding rage-Woken up at 3:00 am today, guy in a easement stairway doing something with a bike, dressed in black, hard to see, just wasn't right, dark area yet taking apart a bike...Wanted to run down there and confront him..work some rage off...but my lady made me call sf police instead...they hit him with the light and he was up the stairs and crashing thru back patios, left everything on stairs....watched the police pull a 6 inch blade out of his backpack, boltcutters etc...they didn't chase him..which now puts me in the postition for retribution...gonna be interesting around here for a bit..

Mock-great letter...celebrate with a beer you crazy irishman

So, what happens to all these indicators if the jittery us treasury market sends prices thru the floor, if the Fed decides buying treasuries is for other suckers ?

"Tom- I agree, Salmon Creek is pretty sharky. I officially live in Sonoma County (Kenwood), but actually live in Marin. The outrage is starting to be noticed, as even the bewildered herd knows something is wrong.
I haven't surfed on a regular basis since leaving Maui."

Tom, adornosghost: I'm interested in hearing how the outrage manifests itself, and from who. I live down here in Santa Cruz County, and we're always outraged. It's a lifestyle. Nothing new here.

So, what's happening? Staid Rotary Club members calling for mass arrests on Wall Street?

a million dollar question, when is the stress test released?
O:-)

Only 165M in bonuses at AIG and everyone is up in arms, along with Madoff it must be the best way to divert and direct public opinion on the smaller issues.

Penny wise pound foolish comes to mind.

"I am appalled that Treasury and the office of the President of the United States have not yet found a way to halt the payment of bonuses"

not to mention the $2.5 Bn into the the right pocket of Swiss bank UBS while out of their left pocket they are paying a $750m fine for tax evation -- (maybe I have my pockets mixed up) I do I think they are paying the fine out of their right pocket

The best credit indicator right now is foreclosures, especially walkaways.

Housing has a ways to go too - I'd say down another 15-20% over the next 3 years. Then sluggishness for years. The economy will follow housing.

Libor is the rate banks charge each other for short term loans of government guaranteed $$$. That's a useless indicator at this point.

Summers currently being interviewed by Liesman on the Cramer Network (CNBC)

Liesman to Summers
Is it possible you have the wrong policies in place?

No we have the right policies.

Summers talks about the situation he 'inherited'.

Isn't it illegal to leave things to yourself?

The taxpayer is prepared to exercise their 7th amendment rights in a tax revolt for government failure of it's fiduciary responsibility to the tax payer. Send BO this link also;
Red Beckman - Fully Informed Jury

Penny wise pound foolish comes to mind.

China,

I agree. The ~ $100 billion the I-banks got as part of the AIG bailout is the bigger crime.

Where are those WTO protesters when you need them? You'd think this massive financial swindle would be their Siper Bowl!

Soccer Mom Riot! Circle the SUVs!

Wow, Tom, You were going be my idol. A surfer and straight in SF. Could it ever be any better?

By all traditional means...it looks like the worst is over and here comes sweet, sweet recovery...

The panic and disbelief will return when real world conditions don't improve. The rest of the world is done financing our great American adventure. The last thing we had going was entertaining everyone with out "cute" childishness and expensive movies. Now our childishness isn't so much cute as it is infuriating and movies have not only begun to suck royally but the subject matter usually serves to remind everyone how pompous and idiotic our "culture" is....sorry, rant over....

"Only 165M in bonuses at AIG and everyone is up in arms,"

it is simple. That fact erodes any trust in financials or in possibility that their corporate governance could be improved.

The real question, did 165 ml cut the sucker rally short , rofl.

Comrade,

We watched Catwomen. That has to be big, still, in Japan.

Summers: Steve, lets be clear(like we rehearsed)there are no tax increases this year and there are no increases next year.

What can you tell us about the Public Private Partnership?

Look Steve the President receives 40,000 letters a day and reads a cross-section - the dry cleaner who can't get credit. We need to work with banks to make loans because it is lack of credit that is the problem.

Soccer Moms don't riot. They just have a headache on whatever day was penciled in for "Quality time"

Lack of credit is not the problem. Lack of saving is the problem.

ades - i got yours - did you get mine? reminds of when you would call people to see if they got your fax

LOL! I didnt. How did it show up? Was it an email or a post? Thanks!

Tom Stone - Did you play guitar with the Ventures?

Corporate bond spreads widening is more a function of LIBOR and treasury rates declining. That paper is being priced on absolute yields and no bond buyer believes that all of this government stimulus will lead to no inflation or rate increases. That data is much less meaningful when looking at the health of the credit markets. There has been a ton of corporate credit issuance this year - the spreads may be wider bu the absolute yields are still near all time low levels for many of these issuers. TED spread is the most relevant crisis indicator.

Oooo,oooo,oooo! I gotta stop posting. We is up and there is this guy on bubblevision with a green hat who is only down 45% on his past picks. I ABSOLUTELY have to listen to this guy. He must be good, why else would they have him on to give advice? He also wears a kermit hat. It's a feckin sign.

Washington can remain irrational longer than Main Street can remain solvent. Time for a tax revolt.

How to beat the IRS
YouTube - Tom Cryer NOT GUILTY! IRS fails again
Part 1
YouTube - Income Tax Truth Tom Cryer 1/3
Part 2
YouTube - Income Tax Truth Tom Cryer 2/3
Part 3
YouTube - Income Tax Truth Tom Cryer 3/3

I agree with the Senator who said the AIG executives, expecially those in the financial products division, should commit suicide.

This would get us back to focusing on other fleecing of taxpayers, rather than this piddly 145 million.

You hear that AIG assholes, just kill yourselves already.

Look Steve the President receives 40,000 letters a day and reads a cross-section - the dry cleaner who can't get credit. We need to work with banks to make loans because it is lack of credit that is the problem.

I'm honestly surprised they're still using this trope.

Did AIG's payout summary include payments made using AIG's own assets?

If not, I wonder who got the bulk of payments made through liquidation of AIG's assets? If payments made by AIG (excluding TARP) is released, one of the counterparties may stick out as a sore thumb.

Where was the tea party when Dick Cheney and Ronnie Raygun were looting the Treasury?

Gotta do this...

Fad Gadget lyrics:

Young man, go out
And take what's yours, don't doubt
There's strength in numbers, walk on
Defend the meek, headstrong

Now the story's become a bore
I don't want to hear it anymore
It's by no means an immaculate conception
Too many bodies lying around
Pushing daisies out the ground
And the church is cashing in on resurrection

Well I tried so hard to please you
'Cos I know that you crave blood
Consumer credit carnivores
And now the masses have been fed
Suck the offal from the dead
Now the joker's here to pick the sores

Under the flag

Under the flag boy
Under what flag?

Spreads might even turn negative once investors finally realize USA and UK are bankrupt. Gonna take still some time before they panic, maybe one or two years...

Michael,

Do you have a home security system?

Michael,

Why I ask is they are going to come for you if you keep posting stuff like. Just like they did for My Grandpa.! They come in the night and CUT MR WINKIE! :'(

They're going to get a pretty big mouthful if they succeed.

ades - i replied to your secret email test with my own secret amail

It's important to do something about the bonuses and executive compensation, but those are small fractions of the amount that that the banksters are looting from the treasury.

Here's a twist: instead of a condo buyer trying to back out of a sale agreement, a condo seller is hoping to kill the deal.

The dispute centers on downtown Milwaukee's The Point on the River condominiums. The project's court-appointed receiver wants a judge to toss out an agreement by the Point's developer to sell nine condos at alleged below-market prices.

Selling the units at those prices would significantly harm the project's creditors, which are owed tens of millions of dollars, while also hurting the ability to sell the development's remaining units at market prices, receiver Michael Polsky says in filings made in Milwaukee County Circuit Court.

Condo development's receiver wants sales rescinded - JSOnline

Just a little ahead of the curve...

U.S. Representative Barney Frank said lawmakers working to overhaul financial regulation amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression must “figure out how we avoid ever again being in this situation.”
Frank Calls Regulatory Effort Biggest Task Since ‘30s (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Hey Barney you mean the same regulations that you clowns in CONgress spent the last 12 years undoing from the last time this happened in the 30's. You have blueprint no need to reinvent the wheel, just put them back in place and enforce the frigging law.

Step one, don't abandon M2M.

Flurry kittens hate soccer moms. They create spoiled little stupid bastards who think they are so special. Milk they give us mighty kittens is always that fat free type of crap because soccer moms are always "on diet". Stupid cows. Somebody should "fix" them...

cd: If the 2nd guy in that clip you posted was Gerry Lopez... I have an identical big wave board

"those are small fractions of the amount that that the banksters are looting from the treasury."

Agreed.

Taking it one step further, we need to permanently block the Federal gov't from responding to economic crises with ad hoc creation of backstops for banks and businesses. Congress needs to plan ahead and fully fund programs like FDIC and PBGC, then let those safety nets catch what they can and let uninsured firms hit the concrete. Exhibit A is Goldman -- too bad AIG blew up, but it was never a GSE and there never should have been any expectation that AIG would get bailed out.

I need a crash course on The Fed. ^0 Minutes described Bernanke as the second most powerful man in America and here I was writing poems about him. Any links on The FED?

A shtupid question: does every country have the equivalent of a FED? What stops them from creating money out of thin air? I mean, how in the hell are they gonna compete with these pallets of paper? Seriously? =-X

Apprentice: Typically they will have a central bank, actual responsibilities will vary, some set rates, others only engage in market actions (selling equivalents of t-bills). A government can indeed create money out of thin air. What stops it is the ability of the currency to retain value as a medium of trade. Once you reach a certain point, no one wants to hold the currency because it is experiencing rapid inflation.

Britain is already openly creating money out of thin air. They are using newly printed money (slightly devalued currency) to pay off existing gilts (British "tbills"), they call it quantitative easing. Japan is supposedly using newly printed money to buy private securities as well (to lend to businesses that need cash).

Federal level governments borrow to avoid inflationary pressure on their currency from current spending, not because they have to get money from somewhere, they can (theoretically) spend without borrowing or collecting at any time.

I still don't see why we can't just fire all the AIG people (for just cause obviously) and then rehire them all with new contracts.
obviously new contracts WITHOUT bonuses.

I still don't see why we can't repeatedly kick them where it hurts first.

Focusing on the bonus part is so missing the entire picture folks. It was postulized that GS had about $20b in exposure to AIG......they got back almost %75 of it in one fell swoop.

Ciao
MS

"60 Minutes described Bernanke as the second most powerful man in America..."

60 Minutes is kidding you and themselves.

The Fed Chairman IS the most powerful man in America.

mp says:

The Fed Chairman IS the most powerful man in America.

I wish he'd act like it and kill the zombies.

Michael,
Where you a surfer?

Tell me Nova, what do you really think of those video links I posted? Do you believe the information and believe it's true?

Uncle Sam wants you to start saving now, to save America. My new bumper sticker; Save to Save America!

“Focusing on the bonus part is so missing the entire picture folks. It was postulized that GS had about $20b in exposure to AIG......they got back almost %75 of it in one fell swoop.

don't worry. I have plenty of focusing skills. I also am enraged that we're using AIG as a backhanded bailout machine.

the problem is that Joe Q Public isn't able to understand that yet

First we must get them enraged. then they'll be receptive to the rest of the argument.

this stuff is so esoteric that people's eyes glaze over by the time you're done saying the word "conduit". but people understand "these losers are getting record bonuses from your tax money".

then we expand it to "even worse, we just gave >$10 BILLION to bail out Goldman Sachs!

The Fed Chairman IS the most powerful man in America.

Why limit it to America?

It feels like we are passing out of the 'stat phase' --- the early stage of the breakdown in which numbers are studied and relied upon to understand what's happening in the world.

I think we're shifting to a phase that drops the stats and looks directly at human actions.

Where was the tea party when Dick Cheney and Ronnie Raygun were looting the Treasury?

People were high on bubbles and easy money so they didn't care.

To paraphrase Jim Rogers:

"Deficits don't matter until they do."

"Why limit it to America?"

Good point.

uncle billy, it is..lightening bolt...looks like rally into op ex...alternating btwn financials and comm...especially oil....good shorting opp on oil is a coming..

A shtupid question: does every country have the equivalent of a FED? What stops them from creating money out of thin air?

That's the role of Fiscal Responsibility Fluid - if it goes to $250/bbl because of money the Fed prints then the president gets impeached by an angry mob of impoverished voters.

IMF poised to print billions of dollars in 'global quantitative easing'
The International Monetary Fund is poised to embark on what analysts have described as "global quantitative easing" by printing billions of dollars worth of a global "super-currency" in an unprecedented new effort to address the economic crisis.

IMF poised to print billions of dollars in 'global quantitative easing' - Telegraph

What will this mean for us?

I just read the WSJ linked upthread regarding the TALF. Amazing. Bankers will be bankers until they are not. The Fed is like a rich country farmer walking into the big city.

Worth reading if you skipped it.

Michael,

I don't watch videos for information. I rely on my Visions that are sent to me by those that fight THEM! They killed some of the ascended beings in NM but that didnt stop them.

ATM:

Yes. But I'm not hearing your message anywhere. The existing framework for the most part reflects the priorities and the exclusions of a rational framework. A few discarded parts might be bolted back on to good effect.

What is missing from this administration and Congress is a clear concept of what they want to have after the dust settles. They won't get there without an idea of what 'there' is.

A bit OT, I would like to get everyone's opinion on the validity of this statement, the US economy has been going down the drain ever since the dot com boom. Look at where 'technological innovation' has gotten us. I find it ironic that all this 'awesome' technology developed in the US has benefited rival countries more than it has us. Am I right to say that the US has been going on a downhill path since the tech boom? Or is there some other point in time where it all began? Any comments would be helpful.

"What is missing from this administration and Congress is a clear concept of what they want to have after the dust settles."

Some signs of leadership would be reassuring...

"what does it mean?"

It means the IMF is going to use the cash is gets from it's gold sales to print monopoly money...but call it currency. It also means that we will have MASSIVE inflation...since the "super currency" or whatever the hell they call it, will be most likely pegged to dollars.

What it really means is that the middle class (what is left of them) is being wiped out for good.

Ciao
MS

"Where was the tea party when Dick Cheney and Ronnie Raygun were looting the Treasury? "

Exactly! That is a very fine question. Who should have been hosting those tea parties by the way?

AIG:
Am I Greedy
Americans In Government
All In Gubmint
An Innocent Goof
Abstention In Government

debtinator says:
Today, 09:38:17
“Where was the tea party when Dick Cheney and Ronnie Raygun were looting the Treasury?


they weren't looting the treasury, they were building a 500 ship navy so we wouldnt have to run away after terrorist killed 253 US Marines at their barracks in beirut airport, or wouldnt have to trade 400 missles to iran for the release of us hostages..

oh wait im wrong, they did run away and did trade arms for hostages

never mind

1983 Beirut barracks bombing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Contra_affair

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