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This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/4543190091296943574
i'm one of those people who refuses to look up what twitter is...
An invasive study, disguised as voluntary participation, in human behavior and the little things people do in their everyday lives. I'd prefer not to participate.
I dunno, CR, I think Jas really has you beat.
Just because something stops going down does not mean it starts going up.
ZOMG, CR IZ ON TWITUAH!
Nemo, at what? ROFLOL.
Best Wishes.
Who spilled the Pepsi Ice Cucumber on the Nikkei servers
U.S. Treasury says it will make AIG pay taxpayers back for the $165 million in bonuses the insurer paid employees by deducting the money from the next $30 billion federal aid installment.
>>
WTF!!!!
They won't even throw us little people a frikin decent bone.
But they forgot to mention the gross-up.
ROFL. And the great part is that the "public" owns AIG anyway, so the bankster scum at aig walk with the huge bonuses and the public pays back the public for the bonuses the rats stole. Change we can bereave in.
Nemo, when it stops going down - that is the bottom. It doesn't have to go back up, and as I noted - don't expect a meaningful rebound in housing starts.
best wishes.
In the last boom cycle in Hawaii, sales bottomed in 1995. Prices didn't bottom until 2001, 6 years later.
"Who spilled the Pepsi Ice Cucumber on the Nikkei servers"
They probably heard that CR is on Twitter. With real time CR info available, the Scam Market and the Banksters and Fraudsters don't have a chance!
Seriously, Twitter has got to be about the best example of Veblen's pecuniary emulation ever. Massive barriers to participation for anyone who works for a living.
While you are on Twitter, CR, I recommend checking in on Christopher Walken.
Since JSKit apparently doesn't support html links....
Carolyn Jones (cwalke) on Twitter
So can the recession end while housing prices go down? I am sure this has been covered, but I am too focused on the downward spiral to think about the upward rise.
Another drop of 20 % in housing prices will seem to crush net worths along with the unemployment and partial employment. The job environment will get much tougher. We have to find prodcutive work for people to do now that they cannot flip homes, swap swaps, and sell mortgages. I am wondering what that could be? I am not hearing much in the way of alternative employment programs to get people to work doing productive work. I could use some good computer programmings and software jockies. I suppose we can oay them what they think they are worth. But then you might run into the luddite problem where software replaces people.
A lot of families will be doubling up and downsizing to get through this. Or going to the tent cities and the streets. I am seeing more people on the streets the last few months. Unscientific observation but it seems to have increased rapidly reminding me of the early eighties with the recession and the emptying of state mental hospitals.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner found out about the impending bonuses to executives at insurer AIG last Tuesday and alerted the White House on Thursday, an administration offical said.
AIG timeline: Geithner knew of AIG bonuses Tuesday
| Reuters
Incoming get those shields up Mr. Sulu! Haaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaa
That's funny:
Obama, Congress knew about AIG bonuses for months
The article requested is no longer available.
Hey, if we demolish unsellable stock and add those numbers in, can we drive new housing starts into negative territory?
The Latest from Jesse:
The Obama Administration Financial Team's Performance Is Pathetic?
As someone who is going back to school for CS this year. I certainly hope to have work when I finish.
is going back to school for CS this year.
Case-Shiller has a school?
Test
Since McGraw Hill owns S&P and has a tight grip on a vast media empire with fingers in all levels of education.
Yes, you could say that they have a school(s)
Citigroup's chief economist is being tapped for a job at the short-staffed Treasury Department, which is at the center of the Obama administration's efforts to battle the financial crisis.
Lewis Alexander will become a counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, according to a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because a formal announcement has not been made. Alexander will work on domestic finance matters, the official said.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
This dude should fit right in at the treasury of this little banana republic.
How will Bernie and Geither unwind AIG in an orderly manner?
Stay tuned for the next episode as they 'discover' that AIG has no net worth.
Can you add a Reddit option for the share this button?
@bailouthelicopter: If the Reddit kiddies starting coming here, that would be the beginning of the end.
"Sorry for repeating myself"
Ah come on lets pretend its a comment
...soryy CR
All this talk of "going down" and "bottoms" sounds gay to me.
Test I haven't been able to see comments for 2 or 3 weeks. They either don't show at all(just 2 refresh links that don't work) or I crash.I'm trying a new way and I have comments and am seeing if I can post.
Case-Shiller has a school?
LOL
I saw Watchmen last evening. The primes if the movie is as follows;
The Watchmen are the Bilderberg Group in disguise, playing God.
(Spelling Natzi correction.)
I saw Watchmen last evening. The premise of the movie is as follows;
The Watchmen are the Bilderberg Group in disguise, playing God.
"and I'm now on Twitter."
Dude. I'm sorry.
AIG has to be real to unwind it.
I think AIG is as real as Santa's workshop.
From the LATimes this evening...
"Southern California's median home price fell to $250,000 in February, down 39% from the same month a year ago and equivalent to 2002 price levels, a real estate research firm reported today.
Previously foreclosed homes comprised 56% of properties sold, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick".
While the change in starts might be an indicator of things to come, it is the continuing decline in prices that affect the stability of the financial system and the economy. As prices decline, more folks will be underwater and this will make recovery from any other financial stress (medical problem, divorce, job loss...) less likely. This will lead to a higher number of abandonments and foreclosures, decreasing the value of pooled mortgages. Until we see stabilization of house prices, economic deterioration will continue.
REW says:
Today, 21:37:36
Do I know you?
CR is correct. A bottom in sales volume should precede the bottom in house prices. Everybody is overly focused on the pricing bottom and has overgeneralized the commentary conclusions to => PRICE Sales are sales even if most are FC's. Price stickiness in residential real estate exists because of seller's delusion of value. Given enough time that will get broke down and you will find price discovery. When price discovery occurs you get a sale.
ozymandias appears to be far more moral than banksters.
We will have several housing bottoms as lenders are kicking the can down the road by the modification process. Many people in CA are at 150% - 250% LTV, but can stay in their homes at reduced payments (not balances) for 12-60 mths. These are future foreclosures in 2010-2014 and will be like "H2O Torture" over the next few years!!!
I have been looking for a data series on homes demolished, or demolished + converted to other uses. So far not succeeding. Anybody have a reference?
Housing "bottoms" may not matter anymore. The problems we face are of a far more fundamental nature than most are willing to admit.
Michael,
Ozymandias certainly fits the Bilderberg bill.
Exactly.
Anyone know if all those tents begin erected in the new Hooverville in Sacramento were included in the new housing starts?
from Drdge
Happy St. Putins day
At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency
17 March 2009
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/375364.htm
"At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency
17 March 2009"
Yeah. Great, right?
The obvious beginning of the new world order, controlled by bankers.
re anonymous (or whom ever) at 19:48
kremlin proposes international currency (at g20)
" The International Monetary Fund should investigate the possible creation of a new reserve currency, widening the list of reserve currencies or using its already existing Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, as a "superreserve currency accepted by the whole of the international community," the Kremlin said in a statement issued on its web site.
The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries.
The Kremlin has persistently criticized the dollar's status as the dominant global reserve currency and has lowered its own dollar holdings in the last few years. Both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have repeatedly called for the ruble to be used as a regional reserve currency, although the idea has received little support outside of Russia.
Analysts said the new Kremlin proposal would elicit little excitement among the G20 members."
thats crazy talk...imagine if 50 states all shared the same currency...much better if all 50 each had their own money dont you think?
No new subdivisions in sight, a few new out buildings by the builders doesn't due squat for the economy. Cities and counties in Calif are like the emerging market counties today, no plan B. Without massive subdivision buildups these will all go BK unable to service pension debts and keep vital services.
All this talk of "going down" and "bottoms" sounds gay to me. HA!
Yahcey Ward - "All this talk of going down and bottoms sounds gay to me."
Dude, you just outed yourself. Those words just remind me of some of my favorite ex-girlfriends.
Is that what you called them?
Here's a cheerful little piece on Freddie Mac:
"AIG is to date the most expensive corporate bailout in American history, requiring $180 billion in government funds. But it may soon have competition. Last week mortgage giant Freddie Mac said it had lost $50 billion in 2008 alone. A look at the company's books suggests the government will have to spend at least triple that much to save the financial firm from collapse."
Freddie Mac: Government's New Black Hole? - TIME
The AIG fiasco has finished Geithner. Obama will make the rookie mistake of standing by his man and showing loyalty too long. But the American public will never stand for Geithner again after this. The longer he stays, the weaker Obama's financial team will look, and the more defensive he will have to be.
Geithner's behavior in this mess was perfectly predictable and consistent with what he thinks and has done in the past. Deep down, that's what bothers the public the most. He's really one of them and totally out of touch with ordinary people and their financial problems. He's also a well educated fool.
I agree completely. Geithner is a walking/talking political disaster- quite possibly the worst cabinet pick in history.
The reason that the government is paranoid about unemployment is that is the driving force behind house price discovery. No job=forced house sale.
In my old neighborhood during the dot-com bust all it took was two people on my block losing their jobs to start a reverse bidding war on house prices. If you lose your job you need to sell your house; 6 months later the second one finally sold for 25% less.
V shaped housing graphs - NAR Reveries
U shaped housing graphs - What the "realists" think they're going to get
L shaped housing graphs - Baked in the cake
And we'll spend all that money saving Freddie Mac...why? What, China will collapse if they lose a few billion on their GSE investments? At least we know who we serve now.
Career advice to give to our daughters - learn how to say, in Cantonese and Mandarin, 'We go your hotel now?"
I tried to tell you guys that the pendulum had swung too far the other way. Up up up from here. Banks do not equal the entire economy.
My only fear is that the pendulum once again swings too far too fast in the positive direction. Housing and Finance will take awhile to rebound, but the rest of the economy is coming back. You heard it here, first.
Yancey - That's great! Actually, with a couple of them, I was never really sure... didn't want to spoil the fun by asking.
Alex,
LMAO!
And in other news:
Obama Received a $101,332 Bonus from AIG.
When a dead body hits bottom, it stays there until the carbon dioxide produced by bacteria in the decomposition process floats it back to the top--usually after ~3-4 days.
Now if you embalm the body first, the body hits bottom and stays there for a looooong time.
All the government buffoonery designed to prop up unsustainable prices is just the embalming of the housing corpse.
This sucka is going down.
This sucka is staying down.
cd
Another fool is Doug Kass, who was on Kudlow tonight adamantly proclaiming the next big bull market, one of the biggest of all time, now forming near a bottom near you.
Ultimately, 98% of the bottom callers in this recession will be wrong.
People forget that this is the same Doug Kass who lost the majority of his clients money by being adamantly bearish and short in the teeth of the crazy bull market of early 2007. You would think he would learn from his mistakes in being too stubborn and early.
What people don't understand it that you don't have to pick bottoms or rallies to make money in this market. We will probably bounce between 600 and 800 on the S&P for a few years. There's really not much support or resistance on the horizon on either side of this range, for a long time.
But you can make nice money by going long PMs, commodities, basic materials, large-caps and energy and short emerging markets, small-caps, tech and other flotsam of recessions. You also can make money in TBT straight through, I think, and maybe at times by shorting the dollar against anything real.
I am trying to adjust long/short net exposure gradually, increment by increment and add value that way. I've been pretty long but am starting to get shorter.
Makes sense to me. But what about possible QE effect on TBT?
Um, I understood CR's point perfectly, and still don't believe a bottom is near in either starts or prices. Yes, the former has a minimum level of activity that will be reached, but we're not quite there yet.
Economic pressures and excess inventory will drive existing home prices well below that of new construction for some time to come.
As a builder, I would agree. Really cannot sell a spec. for even hard costs right now.
Kermit is not done playing with you yet.
Comrade Bear (tj and the bear) says:
Um, I understood CR's point perfectly, and still don't believe a bottom is near in either starts or prices.
Beg to differ, but, as I read it, the distinction CR drew was not between "starts" and "prices"; rather, it was between "sales" and "princes". On that note, I respectfully submit the issue would disappear if "sales transactions" or "number of sales" were used in place of the current term "sales" - but that could just be me.
HELLO CR:
Re: It doesn't works that way!
Please to fix error in your post ASAP, before anyone else catches that your at a St Patty Party! :-$
"Kermit is not done playing with you yet."
Elmo is gonna being practicing some MMA ground and pound on Kermit in the next few months. I'm picturing Quinton Jackson as Elmo and Butterbean as Kermit.
does this mean I need to sign up for twitter?? Ugh!!
poic,
I hold insufficient wisdom to speak in terms of months. I am a short life for whom a single month is a mountain.
"Kermit is not done playing with you yet."
Agree. People by nature are half-Kermit, half-Elmo. Keep one repressed too long and he springs out and jumps around for a bit. Kermit will hop around like crazy until he hops right off a cliff.
REBear says:Today, 5:46:11 AM“U.S. Treasury says it will make AIG pay taxpayers back for the $165 million in bonuses the insurer paid employees by deducting the money from the next $30 billion federal aid installment.
That'll learn em'!
"I am a short life for whom a single month is a mountain."
Popeye,
\t
If you ever get tired of trading, you could probably find work writing fortune cookies.
Tonight on Charlie Rose...AIG..with Meredith Whitney, Hank Greenberg, Gretchen Morgensen and Carol Loomis (Fortune mag.). Discussion is all over the place, but interesting. Sorry, no link yet.
ATM,
Is that an offer ?
Did Greenberg admit he created the mess at AIG or did he pass the buck?
I wouldn't waste the time to piss on Hank Greenberg. How did Meredith get roped into that?
CNBC TV may still be the land of idiots, but their web-site is looking like a doom and gloom blog:<br/><br/> Whitney: Banking Woes Likely to Get Worse in 2009 - CNBC "A surge in borrower defaults and unemployment pressures will make 2009 an even uglier year for banks than last year, analyst Meredith Whitney said."<br/><br/> Treasurys Are 'Disaster Waiting to Happen': Dr. Doom - CNBC Treasuries are "a disaster in the making" says Marc Faber.
"ATM,
Is that an offer ?"
Not really. But I found this information for you if you are interested:
Content Not Found : The New Yorker
CR --
I don't know...double bottoms...repeating yourself...
SLAINTE!!!!
BTW -- Where do new housing prices bottom in your matrix?
bobn,
worth watch for Merediths convoluted answer on why AiG should pay the bonuses...the "sanctity" of contract law, no less. Reminds me that she is truly a Wall Streeter when you threaten a banker's bonus...Greenberg reminds me of an aging bellboy in a second rate hotel.
AIG = All In Geithner? As in, "Is that all you've got?"
a can of spinache to pops
Your posts are getting more desparate and defensive of the doomsayer scenarios. This is a positive leading indicator.
"Did Greenberg admit he created the mess at AIG "
Did Bush ever admit he made a mistake?
fried: worth watch for Merediths convoluted answer on why AiG should pay the bonuses<br/><br/>sorry to hear that. Meredith has been pretty cool about everything else. and easy on the eyes too.
ATM,
From the site you proffered: "Wonton’s primacy in the industry and, for that matter, in the gambler’s imagination is such that when, in March, five of six lucky numbers printed on a fortune happened to coincide with the winning picks for the Powerball lottery, a hundred and ten people, instead of the usual handful, came forward to claim prizes of around a hundred thousand dollars. Lottery officials suspected a scam until they traced the sequence to a fortune printed with the digits “22-28-32-33-39-40” and Donald Lau’s prediction..."
For a very reasonable "advance gratuity", I can do the same thing for you in the market of your choice.
Don't lose sight about what the AIG solution is really all about, as far as Obama and Bernanke are concerned.
They are working as hard as they can to find a political way to ask for $50 billion more taxpayer money for the next round of AIG bailouts.
popeye,
CR states "But some readers are confusing a bottom in housing starts with a bottom in pricing." Sounds pretty straightforward to me.
I agree in the sanctity of contracts. Just bring in everyone at AIG who got a bonus and say feel free to keep their bonus. Just let them know that the IRS will be running an audit so they better have their taxes in order and the FBI will be auditing their trades and derivatives to make sure they were valued properly at the end of 2008 pre-calculation of their bonus.
Citigroup's chief economist is being tapped for a job at the short-staffed Treasury Department, which is at the center of the Obama administration's efforts to battle the financial crisis. Lewis Alexander will become a counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, <br/><br/> Truth is way stranger than fiction these days.
Comrade Bear,
Your point is made. I stand down.
I agree with Rich's comment re Geithner...and was struck by what a weak press secretary Gibbs is...Gibbs was really unable to defend Obama or Geithner in the bonus mess and stumbled around until he stated "well, we'll make sure this doesn't happen again". He's making Dana Perino look competent. CNN is doing a timeline on when the admin knew about the bonus payouts...they say January, and question the sincerity of the admin's response to public outrage. Leno calls AIG..Adventures in Greed. Summers on CNN is opining that Geithner is brilliant, it's an inherited mess, and the "sanctity of contract law storyline.
Summers and Geithner are politically tone deaf...but I wonder if Obama who seemed to have sharp instincts really does. Geithner is his man, and this bonus mess is Obama's...it's his watch.
Why prices will bottom before housing starts this recession and the next:
The days of buildable vacant land in close promimity to urban centers are gone. The subdivisions built on the distant fringes of metro areas have been huge failures because people don't want to commute an hour each day to their work, it is just that simple. And jobs didn't didn't suddenly materialize around these subdivisions as had been hoped. Most new residential construction in the future will involve tearing down old houses in geographically desirable neighborhoods before building new houses. This creates a price barrier to new construction that will require housing price to recover first before it will make economic sense for builders to buy and tear down old houses in order to build new houses. In prior economic cycles land values could approach so there was not such a substantial price barrier, housing, even old houses, are not going to approach zero.
I've seen the market move this way before. Most recently from 7500 to 9000 back down to 6500 now back up to ?. The stimulus and bailouts are working a bit, but too many shoes are still to fall. The market will go higher for 6 more weeks after which the current stimuli will begin to falter. The "Don't Worry Be Happy" song will play till then, at which time you'll be quite sick of it. Dow tops at 8525 and is a good time to get back some of the money you lost before the next leg down to 5875 by June 15th. Stimuli is completely stalled by then and out paced by unemployment. Crime will be up 17% and civil unrest will be quite apparent. Your destiny is carved in stone from what I can tell and all I have to offer is, "Save to Save America"
poic.v20 says:
I agree in the sanctity of contracts.
poic,
I take issue on the specie of the contract in question and it's context vis a vie the society that is asked to enforce it. Res Ipsa Locquitur. No society is obligated to enforce a contract which is predicated on the downfall of that very society.
"For a very reasonable "advance gratuity", I can do the same thing for you in the market of your choice."
Really? You can get my son into Princeton?
"You're going to have some growth vehicles that come out of it but they're not going to look anything like today's version of these gobbledygook banks," she said.
In addition to the natural activity that will take place, Whitney said banks also will need help from Washginton. She urged policy makers above all to be consistent.
"Any game that you want to plan as a corporation, the rules are changing all the time," she said. "You can't function as a business operator if the rules are changing."
At G20, Kremlin to Pitch New Currency
They need a new pitcher...
"The retention bonuses had to be paid, we are told, and have to be kept because of the "sanctity" of contracts. But contracts are breached every day in the business world -- sometimes for no good reason, but sometimes for very good reasons, such as fraud or malfeasance in delivery of the contracted good or service.
In those cases, the contractor refuses to pay. "So sue me" is as solid an American tradition as any other.
So let those AIG wizards sue for those retention bonuses."
We've been had with the AIG bailout Darrell Delamaide's Political Capital - MarketWatch
“The California housing market remains in a dreadful condition, according to information in the regulatory filing. PMI said the default rate on mortgages it has insured was 24.7 percent at the end of 2008, up from 10.6 percent at the end of 2007. The default rate in Florida was 27.8 percent at the end of 2008, PMI reported
If a society does not enforce a financial contract then it is not a civilized society. And your latin is lacking, as res ipsa loquitur means "the thing speaks for itself," which has nothing to do with the obligations of societies to enforce contracts.
Darth Troll
'... Change we can bereave in.'
Dang, that is good and sadly way to accurate. They all seem so politically tone deaf at the moment, as tone deaf as the Car execs taking multiple private jets to the bailout hearings. I 'hope' they choose a different path, but these days I suspect they won't.
Can it be that Thomas Hoenig will finally have his say at the current Fed's meeting and actually use his vote?
http://www.kc.frb.org/speechbio/hoenigPDF/Omaha.03.06.09.pdf
Max Baucus, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Charles Grassley, the panel's top Republican, proposed a 70 percent tax on bonuses for executives at firms getting money from the $700 billion financial bailout package.
The proposal would require these companies to pay a 35 percent excise tax, with the other 35 percent to be paid by the bonus recipient. The tax would be retroactive to January 1.
"The country is angry and I am angry," said Baucus. "Companies that shouldn't be paying bonuses are ... and it's got to stop. The tax code is one way to do it."
Smug,
Indeed res ipsa loquitur is a predicate of negligence and tort as opposed to the law of contract. Perhaps it was flippant of me to suggest that engaging in an unregluated market; in OTC contracts which only clear in specie; and placing naked bets on the survivability of the financial institutions that were intentionally created to be "too big to fail" - which in essence was a bet on the Fed Put - perhaps it was flippant of me to suggest that was RECKLESS CONDUCT; but then I'm a flippant kind of guy.
Bottom? not until people puke real estate and stop believing "it always goes up". Then there is the other question- When will prices go back up? It took nine years to break even from 1990 - this time if you bought a house in 2006 = you own it hook line and sinker. Include it in your will- you kids might make some money after the adjusted price.
rock on, pops
JD says: Why prices will bottom before housing starts this recession and the next...
Isn't that what the "capable of high-speeds" trains are for?
Re the Russian currency proposals for G-20
President of Russia | Russian Proposals to the London Summit (April 2009)
<<
Enlargement (diversification) of the list of currencies used as reserve ones, based on agreed measures to promote the development of major regional financial centers. In this context, we should consider possible establishment of specific regional mechanisms which would contribute to reducing volatility of exchange rates of such reserve currencies.
Introduction of a supra-national reserve currency to be issued by international financial institutions. It seems appropriate to consider the role of IMF in this process and to review the feasibility of and the need for measures to ensure the recognition of SDRs as a "supra-reserve" currency by the whole world community.
The obligation to diversify currency structure of the reserves and operations of national banks and international financial organizations should also be provided for.
>>
Quite reasonable, IMO. Let's just not get too far with a common currency in light of the current problems in Europe, which highlight that a currency union without financial and political integration can be ineffecient and fragile.
Perhaps they will threaten to collapse the US dollar if they don't get a pass on this proposal.
Home prices are still way overpriced. In my little berg of Eureka, California...a very depressed, rural area 300 miles north of SF, the median home price has barely fallen, and still remains at $300K. The median household income is only $40K. This makes is probably the most overpriced area of the country. Plus, everything else is much more expensive here: regular gas is $2.499 and food costs more here too. Yet, all the street corners are filled with bums, hookers, and dope dealers.
$40K is only what is reported to the IRS. Another $40K (from Mary Jane cultivation) is not. Just my guess. DONT_KNOW
step back, again..
Ambac Financial, ABK.
Akerman brought it down, ran the commentariat in Congress.... long Target....
October 2008
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SPI1p1Y0c0I/AAAAAAAADgc/WCS7IzuYHAo/s1600-h/abk-monthly.png
SEVENTY SIX CENTS UP OVER TEN PERCENT...
------ the profile <b/>
Ambac Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in the public and private sectors worldwide. It operates in two segments, Financial Guarantee and Financial Services. The Financial Guarantee segment provides financial guarantee insurance and other credit enhancement products, such as credit derivatives for public finance and structured finance obligations. It also provides credit protection in credit derivative form, as well as guarantees or provides credit protection on obligations already carrying insurance from other financial guarantors. This segment sells its products in the U.S. public finance market, the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market, and the international finance market. The Financial Services segment provides financial and investment products, including investment agreements, funding conduits, interest rate, total return, and currency swaps, principally to clients of the financial guarantee business, which include municipalities and other public entities, health care organizations, investor-owned utilities, and asset-backed issuers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
The message is: its broken, and we dont know how to fix it.
more like obama is very similar to bush, not that bush was'nt SO awful
New Thread: Jet Blue Pokes Fun at CEOs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/jet-blue-pokes-fun-at-ceos.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Smug,
Understand me. It is my simple position that all of the shadow banksters and every CDS player should be repeatedly kicked where it hurts without mercy and then taken out to be summarily shot - with no exceptions. Clear ?
Yet, all the street corners are filled with bums, hookers, and dope dealers.<br/><br/>You say that like it's a bad thing.
Smug,
They held clean ground - clear soil - they could have built, but chose to poison. Tell me there is an excuse for that.
Pops,
You sound like you invested in them, got burned, and seek revenge.
Take the high road. Work on productive solutions for your posterity. Vaya Con Dios.
I wonder if Obama who seemed to have sharp instincts really does. Geithner is his man, and this bonus mess is Obama's...it's his watch.
Yes, exactly. Problem is, this prez was fully prepared to meet the economic and political expectations of last April or so. To adapt to fight 'bailout nation', he needed a set of financial advisors not beholden to the old regime. Instead he got Geithner. Nuff said.
For those interested, Move on is sponsoring anti bailout rallies on Thursday. the one in SF is on Montgomery St in the Financial district.
Darth Toll,
Hey dude! Nice to see you posting again!!!
Your point is made. I stand down.
popeye, get back up! Just aiming for clarity.
In my little berg of Eureka, California
Aw, come on -- we've seen the TV show. All those hicks are actually rocket scientists making big bucks that (obviously) can't show in official statistics. =-X
Blogger: Blog not found
This is not just economic crisis for the USA, it is also political one. That makes all the difference and it will be much worse than CR seems to think.
Obama administration is full of the same people who are responsible for this current mess. How they are going to fix it? They are only throwing more money at the problem and looting the treasury at the same time.
AIG and probably even Citigroup are in state of internal chaos. Those two alone are big enough to collapse the global financial system.
only because they think, right or wrong, that those who built the bomb are best able to defuse it
But is this really just the latest housing bust? Not sure how to regard those attempting to use the old math to try and analyze the new worldwide credit collapse, and my understanding is that after the 1990-91 recession, SoCal housing sales bottomed in 1992, while housing prices went on down 4 more years to their bottom in 1996. Nor am I going to listen to congress, the BHO crew or the NAR/business crowd attempt to happy-talk everybody on down to some eventual bottom, probably 6 years away. When home prices eventually plateau for 6 or 12 months and finally turn up for 3 consecutive months, maybe after the end of the world in 2012, the current unfounded public prognostications of imminent recovery currently blurring any vision of the unfolding debt collapse will come to be recognized for what little basis and meaning they had.
Be careful of falling into the "its different this time" trap.
I'm gonna miss this thread.
Bye little thread!
Bye little trillions!
:-$
The last Anon warning about "it's different this time" was me.
I hate JS- Kit
Rich is right. Geithner has to go. Let's also not lose sight of the bigger scandal, that the AIG counterparties like Goldman were fully paid. With taxpayer money. They were'nt even asked to take a small haircut.
JD - your knowledge of basic economic principles is astoundingly bad. The price of those new houses will be set at precisely what people can afford to pay - not a penny more. People (in the aggregate) can't afford current prices, which is why prices aren't bottoming anytime soon.
New Wall Street Sees Profits From Widening Spreads (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
JPM and GS charging oligopoly rates
doug cass being stubborn about his call. And we know what happens to them. We are in the midst of severe downturn and the pace of 1/2 a mil/mo layoffs are likely to continue for few months. 2010 may see economy bobbing along the bottom
CR is right about PCE & RI being the early indication of recovery. W/ savings bound to zoom to 10%+ and RI still pointing to midget recovery given the inventory (also keep an eye on auto sales) there is no momentum left, W/ fed debt as large as ~100% of GDP and chinese being stern about their treasury holdings, the decade of austerity lies ahead.
Oh duggy, it is only money. Don't despair.
"Two Bottoms"
Did I ever tell you about the time I dated twins?
A tale from the front. Last week, the local paper (Free-Lance Star) reported the non-inflation adjusted prices in the Fredericksburg, Virginia area from February 1997 to February 2009. Prices were actually pretty constant from 1997-2000, ranging from 123,000 down to a low of around 120,000 and a high of $125,000. Inflation adjusted in 2009 dollars that would be about $145,000 median price for a house. The bubble started in 2001, with the price going up to $136,000 then, and then peaking at $325,000 in 2006. Right now Spotsylvania County has the highest foreclosure numbers in Virginia, with Stafford County second. So prices will still be going down. The inventory at the current sales rate is 9.7 months, a considerable of improvement from February 2008 when the inventory at the then current sales rate was 17.6 months.
CR: OT--Twitter
Curious what you think about it? Not sure if you caught the last week or so of the Doonsebury comic strip--he's making fun of twitter—between blog posts/threads and twitter I sure wish there was some gizmo that can sort through the chaff to get at the wheat .