"YOY price decline was greater than the numbers show IMO "
One thing I always wonder about the median price is, are people living below their means and buying the same size/location/quality house now that prices have come down some, or are they buying the absolute max they are/were financed for?
If I was able to be financed for $250k in 1999, and in 2009 could get the same $250k in financing, the house I end up with would be very different in certain parts of the country, which makes me suspect people aren't LBYM and are buying as much house as they can.
another thing that pisses me off about the PPIP is that the banks can implement a $1T plan within months, but it takes 1.5 years to implement the proposed credit card reforms.
Home sales are going crazy in Sacramento I hear but prices are way down.
Please post your findings IE: Going crazy, if anything people are going crazy to get the hell out...so I call bluff....Wait till the tax increases hit hahaah!
Altogether, 2,809 homes changed hands during the month in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, DataQuick reported. That compared with 2,162 in February 2008, 2,534 in February 2007 and 3,185 sales in February 2006.
"Preliminary estimates from researcher MDA DataQuick indicate that 28.4 percent of February buyers in Sacramento County were investors aiming to buy, repair and rent out their new acquisitions."
I still hear of little or no money down loans so I think we are trying to reinflate the bubble. I see a new round in Foreclosures by the end of the year.
Everything that we're doing right now is engineered to avoid reality, to sustain the unsustainable, to recover the unrecoverable, when the mandate of reality compels us to face our losses in order to move on to the next chapter of a collective American life.
--Kunsler
(Crain's) — Chicago-area home sales fell almost 29% in February while sales in the city fell more than 40%, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.
Statewide sales fell 27.8% in February to 5,097 homes, compared with 7,058 in February 2008, the Realtors’ group said. The median price statewide fell 20.8% in February to $141,000, compared with $177,950 in February 2008.
The median prices in the Chicago area and the city fell more than 23%, according to a release Monday from the Realtors' group.
“Even though conditions are good for buyers with low interest rates and lower home prices, the job losses in Illinois and record-low consumer confidence has kept potential home buyers waiting on the sidelines for signs of improvement in the overall economy,” Pat Callan, president of the association, said in the release.
Flood of Rentals on the market means a race to the bottom. I will probably move this summer as off the books rents have fallen 20% YOY in the bay Area.
Not only the sale of foreclosures. But doesn't in fact the actual foreclosure of a mortgage count as a home sale. There is a transfer of deed from the borrower to the lender and this is in fact a sale, and is recoded as so.
My point is, that even in the face of no third-party sales, accelerating foreclosures would tip the stats in a manner that at least on the face of it, would show more "sales."
long = old definition of being "long"
short = old definition of being "short"
dLong = "Buying stock with the intent of selling within the next 2 weeks"
iShort = "Shorting stock in hopes you can make it to the closing bell or through the next opening bell"
uLong = "Buying stock with hopes of selling before the closing bell"
omfgShort = "You hit the [Refresh] button every 30 seconds waiting to cash out of your 5+% return"
TRANSLATION: "If you aren't long this market, you are nutz."
[NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Growth Properties Inc (NYSE:GGP - News), the second largest U.S. mall owner, said on Monday that its subsidiary Rouse Co LP would extend the deadline to reach an agreement that could allow it to skip payments on more than $2 billion of debt]
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Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do. I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you. It won't be a ... stylish marriage. I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!! But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat... Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
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"Not only the sale of foreclosures. But doesn't in fact the actual foreclosure of a mortgage count as a home sale. There is a transfer of deed from the borrower to the lender and this is in fact a sale, and is recoded as so."
I think it is not a "sale" until the bank sells it.
The bank didn't have to "buy" the house to foreclose.
"It's important to note that about 45% of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales. Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-distressed sales) is under 3 million units SAAR."
Here's an important part.
Normally, low sales indicate unwilling buyers and a gap between market prices and what buyers are willing to pay.
However, in this case this logic does not apply. From buyers' point of view, there's no distinction between distressed and non-distressed sales. Buyers are certainly no more unhappy with current prices than they were a year ago. Low non-distressed activity is important from SELLER angle - it means that non-distressed sellers are withdrawing from the market in record numbers.
In fact I have always felt allowing the prices to fall would bring in prospective buyers ... whereas FED is more interested in propping it up!
I am not surprises. also this way you will have prudent buyers, prudent lenders and a more equitable system where savers and tax-payers are not screwed!!
Hi
So the bottom is in?
Whats the current status on moratoriums? I havent been keeping up, but I know theres got to be a ton of inventory waiting to come on.
Home sales are going crazy in Sacramento I hear but prices are way down. YOY price decline was greater than the numbers show IMO
Double top at the SP at 800?
"YOY price decline was greater than the numbers show IMO "
One thing I always wonder about the median price is, are people living below their means and buying the same size/location/quality house now that prices have come down some, or are they buying the absolute max they are/were financed for?
If I was able to be financed for $250k in 1999, and in 2009 could get the same $250k in financing, the house I end up with would be very different in certain parts of the country, which makes me suspect people aren't LBYM and are buying as much house as they can.
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
http://realize.org/cr/halokit.php?halourl=http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3110363213433280318
knife catchers, for sure
another thing that pisses me off about the PPIP is that the banks can implement a $1T plan within months, but it takes 1.5 years to implement the proposed credit card reforms.
AnonyMiss says:
Today, 10:20:11 AM
Thanks! It's going to be a long day for CBR if he doesn't lay off the 151. : )
It would be very short for me, I assure you. I'm not a big drinker. =)
Home sales are going crazy in Sacramento I hear but prices are way down.
Please post your findings IE: Going crazy, if anything people are going crazy to get the hell out...so I call bluff....Wait till the tax increases hit hahaah!
Altogether, 2,809 homes changed hands during the month in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties, DataQuick reported. That compared with 2,162 in February 2008, 2,534 in February 2007 and 3,185 sales in February 2006.
Sacramento-area home prices fall 59 percent since 2005 - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee
Where's the chart of the average closing price? Just looking for capitulation...
Looks like we're up Dow 256 for a $1T expenditure.
If that's our metric, I mean, it's kinda pricey.
This is the reason for a lot of the increase
"Preliminary estimates from researcher MDA DataQuick indicate that 28.4 percent of February buyers in Sacramento County were investors aiming to buy, repair and rent out their new acquisitions."
LOL CBR, I was going to say that 151 would make for a short day, not a long day...
Market is going absolutely nuts. I think everyone has decided that the second great depression has been called off.
If you aren't long this market, you are nutz.
The Latest from Denninger:
Existing Home Sales: Beware
I still hear of little or no money down loans so I think we are trying to reinflate the bubble. I see a new round in Foreclosures by the end of the year.
Everything that we're doing right now is engineered to avoid reality, to sustain the unsustainable, to recover the unrecoverable, when the mandate of reality compels us to face our losses in order to move on to the next chapter of a collective American life.
--Kunsler
Chicago yoy getting ugly unless your a buyer...
(Crain's) — Chicago-area home sales fell almost 29% in February while sales in the city fell more than 40%, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.
Statewide sales fell 27.8% in February to 5,097 homes, compared with 7,058 in February 2008, the Realtors’ group said. The median price statewide fell 20.8% in February to $141,000, compared with $177,950 in February 2008.
The median prices in the Chicago area and the city fell more than 23%, according to a release Monday from the Realtors' group.
“Even though conditions are good for buyers with low interest rates and lower home prices, the job losses in Illinois and record-low consumer confidence has kept potential home buyers waiting on the sidelines for signs of improvement in the overall economy,” Pat Callan, president of the association, said in the release.
Local home sales off 29% in Feb. as median prices fall - Chicago Real Estate Daily
Flood of Rentals on the market means a race to the bottom. I will probably move this summer as off the books rents have fallen 20% YOY in the bay Area.
"The median sales price plunged to $165,400, down 15.5 percent from $195,800 a year earlier. That was the second-lowest drop on record."
Expired
Not only the sale of foreclosures. But doesn't in fact the actual foreclosure of a mortgage count as a home sale. There is a transfer of deed from the borrower to the lender and this is in fact a sale, and is recoded as so.
My point is, that even in the face of no third-party sales, accelerating foreclosures would tip the stats in a manner that at least on the face of it, would show more "sales."
"If you aren't long this market, you are nutz."
I think we need some new terms for "this market":
long = old definition of being "long"
short = old definition of being "short"
dLong = "Buying stock with the intent of selling within the next 2 weeks"
iShort = "Shorting stock in hopes you can make it to the closing bell or through the next opening bell"
uLong = "Buying stock with hopes of selling before the closing bell"
omfgShort = "You hit the [Refresh] button every 30 seconds waiting to cash out of your 5+% return"
TRANSLATION: "If you aren't long this market, you are nutz."
MEANS: "If you aren't dLong, you are nutz."
Yaqij,
HAHAHAHA, you should conduct investing seminars.
The Latest from Denninger:
Potential Breakout Intermediate Term
This is great news! The Bulls Are Back In Town!!!!
Deadline ? What's a deadline ?
[NEW YORK (Reuters) - General Growth Properties Inc (NYSE:GGP - News), the second largest U.S. mall owner, said on Monday that its subsidiary Rouse Co LP would extend the deadline to reach an agreement that could allow it to skip payments on more than $2 billion of debt]
Reptillian your Article reads like this
The median sales price plunged to $165,400, down 15.5 percent from $195,800 a year earlier. That was the second-LARGEST drop on record
not "Lowest" WTF
Yeah, they must have corrected it after I copied/pasted.
New Thread: More on Existing Home Sales
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/more-on-existing-home-sales.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
"Not only the sale of foreclosures. But doesn't in fact the actual foreclosure of a mortgage count as a home sale. There is a transfer of deed from the borrower to the lender and this is in fact a sale, and is recoded as so."
I think it is not a "sale" until the bank sells it.
The bank didn't have to "buy" the house to foreclose.
"It's important to note that about 45% of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales. Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-distressed sales) is under 3 million units SAAR."
Here's an important part.
Normally, low sales indicate unwilling buyers and a gap between market prices and what buyers are willing to pay.
However, in this case this logic does not apply. From buyers' point of view, there's no distinction between distressed and non-distressed sales. Buyers are certainly no more unhappy with current prices than they were a year ago. Low non-distressed activity is important from SELLER angle - it means that non-distressed sellers are withdrawing from the market in record numbers.
In fact I have always felt allowing the prices to fall would bring in prospective buyers ... whereas FED is more interested in propping it up!
I am not surprises. also this way you will have prudent buyers, prudent lenders and a more equitable system where savers and tax-payers are not screwed!!