Forecasts: 12% Unemployment in California
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 03/25/2009 - 7:28am (196 comments)
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This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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Thank god I was born a Right Coaster!
shoot. SC is predicting 15% UE.
Good thing SC doesnt need any of that UE assistance money, it just needs to pay down its debt per its wonderful gov! Not a problem at 15% U3 UE, apparently Sanford thinks it has to be 20%+ before you might want to help anyone out.
Maybe I'm mis-remembering (but at my age, remembering things wrong is even a good thing), but didn't these guys at UCLA come out with a much more optimistic forecast about CA and the US just a couple of months ago.
If I'm right, why the change in forecasts??
20/20 hindsight
Don't forget that the recession of 1980s were created by the Fed (hiking interest rates to quite high). This time it was cut to 0% and throwing trillions of dollars at the problem. My guess is that the unemployment will stay high for quite longer than 1980s. It just seems the Fed lost control of the economy and markets.
Back in October 2008, UCLA predicted no recession.
BuildingOnline eUpdate News: UCLA Anderson Forecast Still Sees No Recession for U.S.
Understand that by 2012 a great many unemployed will have aged out of U-3 by virtue of being reclassified not reemployed.
12%?its nothing?
=-X
where is jas?
Obama sees "signs of progress" on economic crisis.
Translation: "All my friends are doing great!"
I'll call the 12 and raise to 15.
CR - If we play w/ the BD model, we can lower this to 5.4% to give some positive news so people will go out and spend.
LOL -"Back in October 2008, UCLA predicted no recession"
jas,jas,where are you? :-E
12% is nothing.just top of icing.
"have aged out of U-3 by virtue of"
starvation perhaps?
A lot of the fall off in the economy has been absorbed by reduction in immigration. Housing construction especially was attracting labor from Mexico. The collapse in the job market is just reaching middle income households. Expect unemployment and homelessness to become a big issue in July.
volcker's finally got some to do.
Obama Names Volcker to Run Tax-Code Overhaul Effor
Flat tax?
That would work wonders for employment
r
..........doom sayers get all attentions nowadays......optimists are regarded as the crazy......look at this blog........
Jar D.:
"..........doom sayers get all attentions nowadays......optimists are regarded as the crazy......look at this blog........"
That's woefully true. Even on other commentary sites like seekingalpha or message boards, there's a sea of pessimism and the sky is falling.
Problem is, it's hard to dismiss the pessimism with all the facts around.
It's almost like 2004 all over again, but with roles reversed. Back in 2004, it takes courage to be a pessimist; or you'll be branded an Eeyore.
Now if you even squeak less pessimism than the next person, you must be a propagandist.
Too bad I don't think you can rely on this indicator alone, as the majority is probably right this time. The wallstreeter minority is wrong...
The unemployed -- those with some cash -- might try leveraging it up 10X with an SBA loan. Start a business and become self employed.
A lot less visibly homeless this time you say?
Maybe it has something to do with all these empty houses lying around...
"those with some cash -- might try leveraging it up 10X with an SBA loan"
Why take the risk?
Leverage up 100X and become a banker.
Besides, then as it is now, loans will be available to those that don't need them. uLoans through churches and civic organizations might work out better.
Since when has the consensus forecast been right. I don't believe they'll be wrong because we won't hit 12%. They'll be wrong because it wont PEAK at 12%.
There are just too many people being paid to do stuff that just doesn't need doing.
I think the unemployment number is severely understated, as I doubt it takes into account all the self-employed and 1099 workers. I know of so many ex-real estate agents, mortgage brokers, home stagers, remodelers, landscapers, etc. who have lost most if not all of their income. I also know 1099 contract tech workers/"consultants" who have either no job at all, or just little things here and there that add up to just a small fraction of their former income.
Many folks would be better off being homeless. Seriously. Who needs a home that sets you back $4k/mo and that is under water by $250K.
Refinancing is not a solution for most either as it likely changes the loan terms from non-recourse to recourse.
Wall street f...ed up our country big time. Enjoy the bonuses you f...n Judases.
We want Barabas!
The reason there are fewer homeless people may be related to a combination of factors. The homeless shelters and transitional housing situation is better than it was 25 years ago (specifically the quality of the housing is better so people are more likely to utilize it).
The job losses are taking place higher up the food chain this time around. In the 80s it was manufacturing jobs and a segment of the population at risk of homelessness. The white collar job losses we're seeing this time around are hitting a bigger part of the workforce that looses their home and moves to an apartment not the streets.
We also have a larger base of low wage service jobs than we did in the 80s. The people trading down to these jobs wouldn't be counted in this unemployment number, but they may working under the table in some of these jobs to avoid loosing out on unemployment benefits.
Just a few thoughts.
Statistics is absurd branch of maths.It never predicts anything correctly.Old indian(american)chieftains had better skill of predicting prophecies.UCLA,like everything in USA is owned by govt,so dont believe anything they say.And i think this market rally is happening only to recover losses of elites of world(US,Russia,China,UK,Europe).Once they recover losses,everything will be owned by american citizens
Thanks Anon above for the reference to the 10/08 UCLA report. In December, they acknowledged a 4%+ GDP loss for the fourth quarter and saw unemployment in CA & US reaching the mid-8% range into 2010.
Seems that, like most economic analyses, they are lagging the real world in their forecasts. It really makes one question the value of economic (or "econometric" for the cognoscenti) when the economy is way out on one of its tails, as Taleb would suggest.
CR: "...In the early '80s, I remember seeing many more homeless people than now..."
Aw, you probably just live in a better neighborhood now, CR. Just take a peek outside the iron gates, though.
I wonder if the housing situation is more benign than in the 1980s because vacant inventory was low than, and household formation very high, with baby-boomers coming of age.
Rents then were probably rising even into a severe recession, now they are steady and even falling in some places.
According to CR's previous posting, housing inventories were quite high throughout the '80s.
12% of 35 million = a whole lot of angry people with a lot of time on their hands...we all may want to vacation away from california for the foreseeable future!
"12% of 35 million = a whole lot of angry people with a lot of time on their hands...we all may want to vacation away from california for the foreseeable future!"
Solution: free dope;-)
You've been terminated.
If you put the real unemployment (U-6), not the fudged numbers, the unemployment would be 19%!!! Ouch...
Thank you liberals (who high jacked the Democrat Party) for destroying the Golden state. The districts are so gerrymandered that its effectively a one-party system. No competition.
"Thank you liberals (who high jacked the Democrat Party) for destroying the Golden state. The districts are so gerrymandered that its effectively a one-party system. No competition."
-Troll
The number of Americans receiving food stamps hit 31..5 million (10.5% of the population) in September 2008!
And that was before the sh%t hit the fan. We really can't afford anymore wall street style prosperity. The dot.com and housing booms ruined the finances/futures of tens of millions of families. Most will never recover.
Thanks wall street. Enjoy the bonuses! The money is in YOUR account so you MUST have EARNED it!
--
It will reach 30-40% of the population. Slaves must be fed!
"The land of the free" my ass.
Exposing and busting flase gods,
Jas
less severe? the entire financial system is backstopped by the gov. they have infiltrated nearly every aspect of credit. let the fed take the foot off the gas and watch the economy eviscerate. someone please tell me where the jobs are going to come from. this is the biggest credit bust in history and people still call it a recession. get serious
"Back in October 2008, UCLA predicted no recession."
heehee. Well, we were only 10 months into the recession.
In a similar vain, here's call by Jeremy Siegel from Aug 10, 2007, to buy Citi, BoA and GE...
Jeremy Siegel Says Get Ready to Buy
Financial Investments and Stock Market Tips for Real Money - TheStreet.com
--
Siegel is a frikin Crooks' agent "raised in a culture of fraud." Scams for the long run!
Siegel makes an interesting comment about the hedge funds who had taken money out of the system, thereby implying that the money went to the shadow banking system. I think this is where people are getting it a little wrong, the money used in the shadow banking system, so to speak, was born of leverage. It seems as though Geithner and friends are trying to fight a depression-like deleveraging process in the shadow banking economy while the real economy languishes with state UE's >10%.
The financial crisis, they say, has swelled into such a global problem that national policy may be ineffectual.
Wow, is there an echo in here or what? I'd swear I've heard that from say, five or six different people here.
I just switched to the editor that allows links, etc.
best to all.
CR: Is there any chance you can make the default for clicking on a link to be "open in a new window"? That, of if it's something I'm supposed to do, let me know how to change my settings?
Thanks,
XXXXX
everyone gets pompoms to USE or you might be off the team
Test
The official unemployment rate will soon beat the street. It will be fun watching the syndicated media spin that. State and local governments are just beginning their round of layoffs.
Angry Saver... very true.... but think about this.. can we even have a functioning elected govt? election spending is privately financed and 1% of the population controls like 40% of the wealth....
I'm not sure a democratically elected govt can work in that type of environment
This is inflationary, right?
This is the Anderson-UCLA plan to fix the economy (like the rooster crowing for the dawn). It works like this: since they've been so wrong for so long, if they predict a prolonged recession, then things will actually get better.
Solution: free dope
Somebody has to produce that dope, you wanna put another 10% out of work?
Sorry if I stepped on your toes
My bad-
I trully feel bad about not trusting my goverment, but there is politics in everything, and the numbers are shrewed or screwed either way you look at it.
There is not anyway of knowing correct figures, take this as an example, collecting rent for a business I had issued receipts in one name for over a year, yet when this same person asked if I could help him get his tax return check cashed it was in a completely different name. Hola!!!
The good ones will be working or self employed! =-O
www.pcta.org
let's see if it works
The homeless are doubling up. Kids moving in with parents; parents moving in with kids. The job holders are taking in jobless relatives.
--
""As a result of the prolonged contraction, the economy will likely lose 7.5 million jobs peak to trough and unemployment will soar.""
A total of 5.4M jobs were created in the last cycle. If we lose more than that then the US would have been in depression since 2001 despite the artificial debt-binge "recovery" to re-elect evildoer Bush in 2004, reappointment of evildoer Greenspan in 2004, and later appointment of evildoer Bernanke. If we lose 10M+ jobs we can date the secular depression to 1998.
The 2002-07 recovery was entirely for the personal ambitions of three evildoers and now born-and-bred American dopes MUST pay the price. There is no free evildoing by the top "leaders." Dopes in denial of the evil nature of the current American system would lose their ignorance in the coming prolonged misery.
Jas
"Flat tax?"
Yes.. then instead of having 1% of the population control 40% of the wealth we can up it to 60 or 70% of the wealth LOL
I have studied EvilHenryPaulson's posts and discovered that "he" is a script, a 'bot!
12% of the government reported workforce idle. Trouble is, illegals and those chronically unemployed are not counted. Venice beach should be popular.
I expect Maxine Waters to organize a 2009 Watts riot.
With banks overwhelmed by their potential foreclosures this time,how many people are getting kicked out to the street? I personally know several people who stopped paying their mortgage months ago. Plus, as others have mentioned, there sure are a lot more empty homes for squatters now too.
"According to CR's previous posting, housing inventories were quite high throughout the '80s."
It might be an apple and orages thing.
I'm referring to vacany ratesas measured by the census bureau.
Rental Vacancy Rates
1982: 5.3
2008: 10.0
Homeowner Vacancy Rates
1982: 1.5
2008: 2.9
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership - Fourth Quarter 2008: Table 1
...pretty dramatic change. Plus the average house was probably 10-15% smaller, so doubling up was more problematic.
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership - Fourth Quarter 2008: Table 1
r
I don't see the same level of homelessness either. It is much more evident in the last 3-4 months so I suspect it will be that bad by summer. I think No. VA unemployment rate is still under 6%
I wrote some more on my CR inspired story of doom and financial ruin.
excerpt:
<
p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">“I can tell you what the Army is seeing. Large scale civil insurrection. Possible terrorist groups engaged in attacking the Homeland. From what I was hearing on the radio before everyone freaked out, this wasn’t the only distribution center they were having problems at. After all, how freaking stupid was the idea of taking guns from people. I swear that everyone in the Army with the rank of Colonel and above has their head up their ass”
<
p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">“So I guess that means they won’t be back with any more free MRE’s?”
<
p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">for more: http://afterthecrash.net
"The reason there are fewer homeless people may be related to a combination of factors."
Here's another - due to the foreclosure moratoriums, there are an incredible number of people living in houses but not paying their mortgages. You would not believe some of the delinquency numbers I have seen, not the number of delinquencies (which we all know are high), but the number of days delinquent. I am talking 600+ days delinquent (no, not a typo, six hundred).
The servicers just can't get to them all, or in some cases don't even want to foreclose because the cost of taking over the house (back taxes, maintenance) is higher than what the house is worth.
I would suspect that eventually some of these people will be out on the street. We are very early into this.
bearly, I know Waters isn't popular and most think she's a loon but she was the only one yesterday to point out Goldman Sachs and they're connections to every part of this collapse.
With some homedebtors apparently as much as 1 year behind in payments still not being evicted, it's no wonder there don't seem to be as many homeless as one would expect given these numbers.
Kristina,
Waters is a loon.. but she was also right yesterday.. I think both things are possible
Waters may be many things, but afraid of Goldman Sachs isn't one of them.
--
Hey, CR, is California is depression, or soon going to be in depression, with asset deflation of 200% of the annual GDP of the state?
Jas
"Waters is a loon.. but she was also right yesterday.. I think both things are possible"
Wow! I just said the same to my wife!
"The variables we're observing are very unusual," said Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast. "There's nothing like it in the historical records. The bottom line is we're not having a forecast, we're having hunches."
Snigger.
Normally this kind of prediction would be distressing, given the role of California in the greater US economy, but since housing has bottomed and all, I'm much less worried. It's a good thing real estate valuations and employment/average income are historically uncorrelated.
<i>"Thank you liberals (who high jacked the Democrat Party) for destroying the Golden state. The districts are so gerrymandered that its effectively a one-party system. No competition."</i>
Consider it even since the the GOP sliced up Texas districts in the 90's.
--
Geithner, again talking on CNBC to Steve Lies-man. Crooks' agents both. Lies-man is always defending the Fed and the Wall Street Crooks' plans.
Jas
Geithner is committed to keeping his elitist buddies swimming in wealth and power at all costs. I can see in his eyes how black his soul is and where his loyalties lie.
<i>It might be an apple and orages thing. </i>
If you're French, that's quite good.
Hey, I have a great idea. Why don't we, the unemployed taxpayers, give money to insolvent banks so they can lend money to us unemployed taxpayers that we can't pay back because we're unemployed. We have to do something, right?
how's that monetization program working today?
30yr up .0548
10yr up .0203
LOL TCA, we're doing just great here in Florida with our GOP dominated State and local governments...This county is one of the heaviest GOP areas of the state and we have 10% UE as of last month, it will be higher this month, that's U3 not U6...
IBM to shift services unit jobs to India: WSJ
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/IBM-shift-services-unit-jobs/story.aspx?guid=%7BDADAF2B1%2DB47F%2D42AA%2DA2ED%2D8C96F7A16826%7D&dist=hplatest
love those patriotic companies...
--
IBM was found guilty of collaborarting with the Nazis. Anything for the all-mighty buck.
Jas
Hey, I have a great idea. Why don't we, the unemployed taxpayers, give money to insolvent banks so they can lend money to us unemployed taxpayers that we can't pay back because we're unemployed. We have to do something, right?
As I recall the early 80's, the big factor in homelessness was not unemployment, but all the mentally ill people who were dumped out of mental hospitals and into the streets by federal, city and state governments cutting costs. That was a temporary spike, since they don't live very long on the streets and they died off in a few years. The new people being added to the homeless balance out with the ones dying off. Of course, homelessness can tip you over into mental illness, and then into lifelessness. But it's not like anyone gives a damn anymore.
This will be easy with 10-11% nationally... The question now is what will the recovery look like it will be an L than a U in California as governemnt and public services costs rise and assest values in real terms fall.
DreadLetterDay writes:
Maybe it has something to do with all these empty houses lying around...
I know I'd be squatting for sure...hell, I'm sure if one spent a few minutes perusing tax records online down at the public library, a suitable property could be located where one could set up shop for quite some time. Just sign up for the utilities, mow the grass and keep the place up...
\t
ALBANY — Gov. David Paterson is ordering 8,900 state workers be laid off after unions refused concessions amid a staggering economic downturn.
Mitigating downdrafts of the upper tranches may influence U6.
Unprecedented optimism, coupled with deteriorating fundamentals may temper U3.
Kensington, Schwartz and Meyers anticipated this outcome in their seminal paper of the late nineties.
The engineering of consent is the very essence of the democratic process, the freedom to persuade and suggest.
– (Edward L. Bernays, "The Engineering of Consent", 1947)
Two points. First, is engineered consent actually consent? Second, engineered to what end? The perversion of democracy and money, perhaps.
Unemployment in Ca will also depend on how many people Migrate to CA and how many leave. As retirees are forced to move to lower tax states I see unemployment holding steady near double digits.
ALBANY — Gov. David Paterson is ordering 8,900 state workers be laid off after unions refused concessions amid a staggering economic downturn.
...ALBANY — Gov. David Paterson is ordering 8,900 state workers be laid off after unions refused concessions amid a staggering economic downturn....
US Jobs are overrated. Nothing to see here. Go buy stocks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bDADAF2B1-B47F-42AA-A2ED-8C96F7A16826%7d&siteid=yhoof2
I think this is what the Czech/EU President was trying to say about O's stimulus and budget.
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=highway+to+hell&hl=en&emb=0&aq=f#
citiprank writes:
<i> election spending is privately financed and 1% of the population controls like 40% of the wealth....
I'm not sure a democratically elected govt can work in that type of environment</i>
...and people wonder why Geithner and Obama are bailing out WS...and ripping off the taxpaer...<b>AGAIN.</b>
I will give McSame this: he has made at least <b>some</b> effort to return us to 'one man, one <i>voice</i>'. The current system suggests that the richer you are, the more "speech" (Ailes, Faux) you are entitled to.
Are there any politicians currently receiving campaign contributions from companies receiving Tarp money or any other form of direct tax payer assistance through TARP and other plans? I do not want my tax payer money going to any politician from those companies that received tax payer bailout money.
Maybe Ron Paul could introduce a bill forbidding politicians from receiving campaign contributions from companies receiving tax payer assistance.
Maybe Ron Paul or some other politician who wants to make a name for themselves could introduce a bill Forbidding politicians from receiving campaign contributions from companies receiving tax payer assistance.
This subject needs to be blogged far and wide. We got them assholes in D.C. by the balls on this one and we should squeeze them as hard as possible.
Kristina,
This is a good illustration of how bush got elected... look at some of the comments.. people blame "liberalism" or "socialism" (two very different things) for the current problems even though the federal govt has been mostly controlled by radical neo-conservatives for most of the last 30 years....
Despite all evidence to the contrary it must be the "fault of the left"...
A lot of these limbaugh loonies still think the community reinvestment act is behind all this... I mean really how stupid is that
And all that being said.. I'm certainly no true believer... and I'm very disappointed with some of Obama's picks (summers) so far... but I'm not willing to throw the guy overboard yet..
"A lot of these limbaugh loonies still think the community reinvestment act is behind all this... I mean really how stupid is that"
Well, when the true belivers in a failed ideology go looking for scapegoats, they will latch on to even the most absurd hopes.
--
Limbaugh dopes are among the most dangerous if you take their numbers into account. They are armed and dangerous and they want Sarah Palin to lead them.
There are too many varieties of born-and-bred American dopes. Yes, dopes have choices!
Jas
"There are too many varieties of born-and-bred American dopes. Yes, dopes have choices!"
Between bad and worse?
Test:
http://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2008/10/31/11homeless.h28.html
LOL Dirk, I wonder when the downtrodden in SC will show up at the "Guvna's" mansion with pitchforks?
ew subdivisions development along with its offspring commerical building is years away, we are stuffed with housing inventory as the looming bubble in rental housing which includes the vast hord of vacation rentals hasn't yet reared its ugly head not to mention all the upside down folks stranded in higher tier homes without any buyers.
citiprank, same here. He was the best pick out of a bad lot. Standing up to the puppet masters is not going to be an easy feat...It didn't work out so well for Kennedy and they did try to off FDR as well...Until such time as the populace wakes up and realizes it is the banksters that run things, nothing will change, O can't do this by himself.
Comrade Kristina, I agree. I never wanted a man to be president as much as BO and thought he would indeed, given his personal background, take a much more bottom up approach. The Kennedy allusion is apt, but that suggests a possible action: one of those Million Man March deals (this time, really get a million) to go Washington and say, "Mr. President, do the right thing. And if you do and they come down hard then we've got your back, sir."
There are serious powers aligned against the People's best interests and so the People have to lend the Tribune there voice and strength to fight back.
The IBM story illustrates all too well what I've witnessed repeatedly in the high-tech industry - layoffs aren't layoffs. They're high-paying jobs sent away, that are not ever coming back. Multinationals not only don't care where labor is located, they're under shareholder mandate to find the cheapest labor possible.
Dust Bowling for Dollars:
If we could just adopt 3rd world business practices here we too could be competetive !!
So if the big corp's offshore most of their US staff, at what point is there just not a big enough consumer base to support a consumer economy ?
I know our neighbors are technically squatting. They told us back in November they could no longer afford the house and put it on the market. They had bought at the peak for $379K and the house is now probably worth, maybe, $190K. So, they rented a place closer to their employment. The kicker is they still 'live' in the house - coming home on the weekends, although I've been seeing them during the week again as well.
What infurates me about this particular situation is they are going out & purchasing dirt bikes and cars. They bought a dirt bike from us! WTF??? My tax dollars hard at work!
What kind of government would mortgage its future rather than fund its spending via taxes, tariffs, etc.???
There are two economies. One is productive and competitive - it produces real goods and real services. The other is a sham, it exists to expand credit by any means necessary, primarily via non-economic credit issuance. In the sham eCONomy, new debt is created to pay off old debt and current interest. We are bailing out the sham/ponzi eCONomy at the expense of the goods producing economy.
I refuse.
--
It IS the Crooks controlled economy, stupid! Crookery began under Rubin-Clinton and continued under Cheney-Bush.
Jas
"Crookery began under Rubin-Clinton"
Regan-Reagan would be my pick for starting point.
Very well said Kristina.. there's nothing more dangerous than true believers... and they exist on both sides of the aisle... .. the republicans tend to have more.. which is why they win elections despite being outnumbered pretty significantly.. but there's plenty in the dem party also.
I actually used to be a wingnut (although I'm not religious).... used to listen to G Gordon Liddy on the radio... so all the idiots who still buy into limbaugh amuse me... they so don't realize they have been had.
That's probably also why I'm not a true believer.. because I used to be one and I saw behind the curtai
London Banker lurking over at RGE had this to say earlier today:
"Monetisation is debt default that pushes most of the losses outside US borders, so makes sense from a US-centric perspective as serving US interests. As the holders of US debt/assets end up hurting, they dislike the policies. This is why China and Russia are pushing for a new monetary order that doesn't hold their assets/reserves hostage to American selfishness.
I'm too busy here to watch too closely, but I think that the Chinese and Russians are doing a lot of behind the scenes preparation for the G20 that could spoil the game plan of Geithner/Brown to externalise their economic policies onto their creditors.
\t\tBy London Banker\t\ton 2009-03-25"
<i>how's that monetization program working today?
30yr up .0548
10yr up .0203</i>
Looks pretty good, since gold is up $10/oz.
Dirk, Kristina,
It will sound counterintuitive, but Sanford will have support for his stance. South Carolinians greatly distrust federal dollars with restrictions attached - and that's widely understood to be the case in this instance. It would be difficult to overstate how much the state's natives loathe anything connected to Washington.
It would be difficult to overstate how much the state's natives loathe anything connected to Washington.
South Carolina did once covet Fort Sumter.
I believe the thought process of California's dumb-as-dirt legislature is probably something like this:
"We just needs to hire more of the unemployed as state workers !! To pay for it we'll either borrow more or tax the evil scum who're ruining this beautiful state by having jobs and earning money. Tax them Tax them all to death !"
I mean DC is bad but CA gets the polticos that are too crappy to make it there. eg. our governor, honestly people voted for HIM ??? Then again if you'd seen the other idiot sigh
Looking on from the outside, it does not seem that Arnie is such a bad GOV. I'd be more that happy to trade Perry for him. Of course I have high hopes for Kay Bailey, who is going to crush Perry.
So, when does the Fed start buying bonds today?
burnside, I agree, that doesn't mean when hunger really sets in that mindset won't conveniently change. It's amazing what an empty belly will do to one's "idealogical" beliefs...
"So far this recession looks and feel less severe than the early '80s, although the unemployment rate is about the same..." - CR
It certainly feels like the 80's timber crash in Oregon. Unemployment about the same, same sectors. Foreclosures here are more tied to unemployment, rather than HELOCs, etc. Lots of food bank drives and donations-- seems to be holding up so far. (They're always looking for more protein foods rather than cheap carbs, however). I expect we'll be seeing a wave of California refugees in the next few months, that's the usual pattern.
Angry Saver you are really on a roll today.. I totally agree with you on the sham economy thing...
What's funny is a lot of profitable and successful businesses have very reasonable exec compensation...
The company I work for is about 500 people... run and founded by 2 brothers.. profitable every year for over 20 years.. they pay themselves about 300,000 a year each plus some stock.. (and the stock is mostly so they can maintain their holdings at 49% or so to prevent takeovers)
Funny how we dont need a bailout.. but tons of companies with CEOS making 20 million a year do
Apologies if I am posting the same information. I seem to have
my comments go missing after submitting them.
Oregon is at 10.8%. The velocity of the job losses is astounding.
http://www.qualityinfo.org/pubs/pressrel/0309.pdf
USA Today had an asinine headline about plenty of jobs to be had in government. Which is just plain wrong. There is a massive wave of layoffs forthcoming at the local, county, and state levels nationally due to substantive revenue shortfalls.
I think the UCLA report is actually too optimisitic and we may hit 10% or more before the end of 2009 not 2010.
Assuming we'll be forced to fight our way out of this one, or believe that we can, anyway. I wonder what a 21st century major war will be like? I can't imagine another war that scoops up millions of bodies and ships them overseas. Do we even have the infrastructure? The financing? Will war provide the economic stimulus that it used to?
More and more, I feel like this is the slow turning of a permanent change in the world order.
'I feel like this is the slow turning of a permanent change in the world order.'
Well, a certain chairman of a communist country, a certain former KGB officer, and a certain head of a feel good group of socialist wimps have certainly been saying the same thing, in their own way, from subtle to obnoxiously loudness.
The ball is rolling, and it will be a long way downhill.
r
So far this recession looks and feel less severe than the early '80s, although the unemployment rate is about the same - and forecast to go higher. - CR
I agree - I was there for the 70s & 80s myself... and it doesn't look or feel ANYTHING like as bad as it did then. But I think there are some reasons for this:
1) In the 80s recession we had already had a decade of 'stagflation' & also 'rust belt' decline prior to that. By the time Reaganvilles showed up we had already had a decade of hard times for a large swath of the country - my guess is a lot of the folks you saw back then in Cali were displaced rust-belters... not all but many.
2) We had FAR more laborers back then & companies [mostly mfg] cut back on production it spilled out into 'the street'. Not so much anymore - now most operations are 'top heavy'... managers & white collar might even out number the grunts on the shop floor... plus there are a whole lot fewer shop floors and a whole lot more 'offices'. Result is that a whole different class of citizen is in the cross hairs - it will take longer for them to exhaust their resources than it took your typical 'Rivethead'.
Regardless it is going to be difficult and the folks in the cross hairs are nowhere near as prepared to cope with this kind of adversity than the factory rats of the 70s & 80s
So far this recession looks and feel less severe than the early '80s, although the unemployment rate is about the same - and forecast to go higher. - CR
1982 was essentially the low point. Why anyone would think that we have even begun to appoach the nadir of the current problems is still probably hoping for the second half recovery of 2007. Or 2008. Or 2009.
I refer back to this article I read many moons ago
Shipping Jobs Overseas: How Real Is the Problem?
Part of "not seeing as many homeless" is that some cities have decided they don't want them and let the police deal with them in a way that makes them go elsewhere. If one city "hassles you" all the time and one city doesn't bother with you, where would you go as a homeless person?
In Dallas TX there is pracically a homeless person on every intersection off Central Expressway, all the way up to Forest Lane including the trash and graffiti that is in PART their fault. Up in the suburb of Richardson, off Belt Line and Spring Valley which is walkable from Forest Lane it's relatively clean, graffiti free and you never see homeless people panhandling. I'm guessing Richardson cops give homeless people a ride to Dallas but don't know for sure.
Looks pretty good, since gold is up $10/oz.
Gold goes up and down faster than Geroge Michaels....Gbugs are a fruity bunch
I think for many people it takes it "happening to them" to wake them up....
For me it was the iraq war that woke me up ... but i think a lot of people need a personal experience.....
And once you wake up it's not like you blindly go over to the other side... I voted for Obama.. but I really admire a lot of what Dr Ron Paul has to say... I wish he had won the republican nomination.. I think he was by far the best canidate on that side.
Remember the ridiculous election cycle? Obama wanted that stupid windfall profits tax on the oil companies.. and mccain wanted to stupily repeal the gas tax...... what ever happened to that? Oh yeah.. gas went down.. .LOL
'The financial crisis, they say, has swelled into such a global problem that national policy may be ineffectual. The United States needs its international trading partners to reverse their slowdowns and reignite the exchange of imports and exports.'
This is hilarious - the current (rotating) Czech president of the EU has just said the U.S. plans are a road to hell.
I'm sure he is ready to get on board with 'reigniting' America's economy.
OT:
dEAR A.I.G., I Quit!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/25/opinion/25desantis.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=Jake%20DeSantis&st=cse&scp=1
I refuse.
AS, is it better to have a jail cell with someone you agree with, or disagree with? If the former is better, I'll see ya soon.
sum of all evil...
You remind of a famous supposed quote from FDR
something like "you know what needs to be done... now MAKE ME do it"
r
U.S. finance chiefs are mostly unimpressed by the Obama Administration's efforts to stimulate the economy, but optimism about their own companies increased slightly for the first time in three years, a survey reported on Wednesday. A majority of CFOs, 58 percent, said their confidence in economy has weakened since Obama's inauguration on January 20th, according to the quarterly survey conducted by Financial Executives International (FEI) and Baruch College's Zicklin School of Business.
<tt>The survey, which interviewed 334 corporate CFOs earlier this month, found optimism about the U.S. economy at an all-time low, with eight of 10 executives expecting no signs of a recovery until at least the first half of 2010. Among these, a third predict a recovery is even further away, possibly starting only in 2011.</tt>
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7237308&action=article
Uh-Huh
This is real...
"know our neighbors are technically squatting. They told us back in November they could no longer afford the house and put it on the market. They had bought at the peak for $379K and the house is now probably worth, maybe, $190K"
got that beat, I know of a couple who have not paid for 15 months...still in the home...countrywide said auction is now in progress..recd notice of default but no order to vacate premises etc....should have saved 3k at month...I dont think they did...it would be nice to have 45K in bank right..wife tells me they did pay down a lot of debt...
Comrade Kristina writes:
LOL Dirk, I wonder when the downtrodden in SC will show up at the "Guvna's" mansion with pitchforks?
I was shocked to hear a segment on NPR on Sanford's refusal of the UE bailout money being defended by an out-of-work S.C. GOP voter...I used to believe you could bring people around by connecting politics to the personal, but in some, cognitive dissonance knows no bounds...
I was shocked to hear a segment on NPR on Sanford's refusal of the UE bailout money being defended by an out-of-work S.C. GOP voter...I used to believe you could bring people around by connecting politics to the personal, but in some, cognitive dissonance knows no bounds...
Some might call that... PRINCIPLE or... CHARACTER,but I guess cognitive dissonance works.
Hey ... so I saw a comment about Perry upthread... ...since there are texans here.. is it true that he makes Bush look like a rocket scientist?
Keep in mind the 12% really equates to 24% of the populace NOT satisfactorily employed, and NOT including 1099 people with nothing to do.
"More homeless back in late 80's"? ........I'd guess a whole lot of older long-haired hippy dope freaks decided THE END WAS NEAR kinda thing and bought "gentlemen/hobby farms" like me and now the kids and their kids are living back with Grandma & Granmpa........Just ask me - I'll ya how true THIS is. The census taker will get an earful at MY front gate when I tell him "12 - NOW LEAVE!".
kristina-
where are you in FLA again?
Ciao
MS
Don't know if anyone mentioned it yet but
<h2 class="title">North Korea places missile on launch pad: report</h2>
<h2 class="title">"North Korea has positioned what is believed to be a Taepodong-2 long-range ballistic missile on its launch pad at a facility in Musudanri"</h2>
North Korea has really ratcheted up their belligerency in recent weeks...
Hey, this JS-Kit is an improvement over yesterday...
Sanford actually makes a cogent argument against acceptance of some of the stimulus money. His primary conern is that some of the programs don't simply plug existing gaps, but expands coverage. In his mind, since the funds only last 2 years, what happens when the funds run out? You're left in even a worse position. His current offer to the White House is to use the $700M to pay down existing school debt.
Of course, his position would be more tenable if he hadn't insisted on a tax cut every single time the state ran a surplus.
Are greedy, selfish, utterly immoral people the only ones who can save our economy?
Open Left:: Are Greedy, Selfish, Utterly Immoral People the Only Ones Who Can Save Our Economy?
Basel.. don';t forget South carolina is one of the top 5 states in receiving more federal money than they pay out.. .the rest of us already subsidize them to the tune of 20 billion a year or so
<i>Don't forget that the recession of 1980s were created by the Fed (hiking interest rates to quite high). This time it was cut to 0% and throwing trillions of dollars at the problem.</i>
Yep. In the early 80s we had a recession as part of the process of improving economic integrity and structure. Today we have the opposite: A recession that's occuring despite attempts to stop it by deliberately tearing apart economic integrity and structure.
"Today we have the opposite: A recession that's occuring despite attempts to stop it by deliberately tearing apart economic integrity and structure."
And these actions will turely bite us in the ass, down the road. Wishful thinking as an economic strategy is no strategy at all.
For me it was the iraq war that woke me up ... but i think a lot of people need a personal experience.....
citiprank,
I too was pretty right-wing in my youth, particularly in the 80's. In the 90's, I began to see through most of the lies perpetrated by our government and its partner in the media. 9/11 was the final turning point for me, and not in the way it was for most people. I saw for the first time how our government policies had led to so much destruction around the world, and how that had fomented so much anger towards us (much of it deserved). Not to mention the lies and cover-ups about 9/11 itself (although I do not want to go there on this blog).
BTW, in the data I am looking at, most of the homes with delinquencies over 600 days are in Florida, and this is data from a lender with a national footprint (and in fact more originations in CA than FL). Not exactly sure why that might be, could be the laws in each state, I know in CA it is relatively easy to kick someone out of their house, I think in FL you still need a judge to opine, or something.
THANKS, CR........I get Bold, Italics, and Uunderlines now - and a bunch of other stuff I don't understand!
From the article that Paradigm Lost linked:
In the first two weeks of this school year, the Clark County, Nev., district, which includes Las Vegas, identified 1,500 homeless students, nearly twice the number it saw during the same period last school year, according to the association. The Albuquerque, N.M., district this fall is seeing double its usual level at this time of year. Between mid-August and mid-October, the Wichita, Kan., district had 720 homeless students, two-thirds the number it had in all of 2007-08.
I've seen this same pattern locally here in Bubbleville, California.
I would guess an even greater number is children living in homes where the mortgage is not being paid (whether by the parents or by the landlord).
The numbers next school year will likely be worse.
The Bush admin. job creation was almost entirely in the FIRE economy.
Last night, Obama mentioned that an economy with FIRE the largest sector was unsustainable.
Financials, not long ago were the biggest S&P sector. Last time I looked financials were 5th out of nine, behind tech, healthcare, energy, and consumer staples.
<i>don';t forget South carolina is one of the top 5 states in receiving more federal money than they pay out</i>
And that is why we'll never have a federal sales tax or wealth tax.
British Bond sale fails miserably.
argh. no manual html tags for italics.
Sarah Palin is one of the Republican governors toying with rejecting stimulus money.
Demonstrators have appeared, a volcano has erupted, and with the price of oil down the oil royalty payments will certainly be diminished. Alaska is another state that receives more fed'l money than it gives.
Jas you don't go back nearly far enough.. this crookery has been going on since at least reagan.. and possibly nixon....
Reagan engineered the largest upward reditribution of wealth since the 1920s
<i>AS, is it better to have a jail cell with someone you agree with, or disagree with? </i>
A couple of thoughts. The fed is trying like hell to devalue all my prior work (savings). Additionally, the fed & Gov't are looking to burden my future endeavors via deficit spending. By devaluing my past, present and future work, they have greatly increased the value of my time. In short, I'm long free (personal) time and double short vanity.
As for jail cells, Geithner, Daschle, tens of thousands of UBS clients, etc. don't pay their taxes, why should anybody else? And why is social security money being spent on bailouts? And why do billionaires pay a lower tax rate than secretaries?
There is plenty of wealth in America. We have a distribution problem.
So if the big corp's offshore most of their US staff, at what point is there just not a big enough consumer base to support a consumer economy ?
Um...I think that is exactly where we are right now...that is the problem. You cannot simply 'restart' it...it was probably there at the end of the dot-bomb bubble and Shrub and Greenspend kicked the can down the road a bit further with super-cheap credit. The amazing part is how willingly "free" people (yes, Jas, Born-and-Bred), indeed happily, signed up to become debt-serfs.
South Carolina did once covet Fort Sumter.
The Charleston public turned out in large numbers as the recovered remains of the Hunley crew were buried just a few years ago. Very, very large numbers.
The 'war between the states' is more than a few test questions in SC. It is still called 'the war of northern aggression' when you and I aren't around.
CR,
I know you stated you can't go back to Haloscan, but I think you really need to do something. The commenting system is incredibly burdensome now. Not to mention that html tags don't seem to be working anymore. It's almost more trouble than its worth to post here now, and we've lost a LOT of valuable contributors since the switch (has anyone seen Elvis lately?) and those who still do contribute are posting less and less. Not to mention lost comments.
Have you looked into switching over to Wordpress? I know Ben Jones switched from Blogger when the Housing Bubble Blog took off and he was extremely happy with the switch. I would hate to see this great blog taken down because of JS-Kit's atrocious commeting system.
Just my $0.02
.....CR.....these underline and boldface fuction is great .....Jas can use it most effectively......like this .....dope....crook........
<
p style="margin-top: 0px;">North Dakota has been declared a federal disaster zone as the rising Red River continues to cause statewide flooding.
<
p style="margin-top: 0px;">North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven said the declaration, announced early Wednesday by U.S. President Barack Obama, means the federal government will pay 75 per cent of state and local government costs to fight the flood.
MS, I'm in Panama City.
Selling the gold miners buying some more SKF for a trade
Regan-Reagan would be my pick for starting point.
Mine, too. We're deep into a natural progression that started in 1981.
This will be our own version of the 30 years war . . . except we might not prevail.
Dirk, Kristina,
It will sound counterintuitive, but Sanford will have support for his stance. South Carolinians greatly distrust federal dollars with restrictions attached - and that's widely understood to be the case in this instance. It would be difficult to overstate how much the state's natives loathe anything connected to Washington.
I hope they like chopping cotton.
BTW where is S Car on the list of ratio of dollars received over dollars paid into Washington? I bet they are solidly >1 already yes/no?
A bank robber is not someone who robs a bank, ia bank robber is a bank that robs someone.
That someone is you.
What principle is being upheld? Idiocy? Does he think only the rich deserve help and/or money from the govt?
He must actually think the republicans are for small govt... LMFAO
The guy is an idiot who is so brainwashed by the likes of limbaugh he'll fly the flag all the way over the cliff
<i>AS, is it better to have a jail cell with someone you agree with, or disagree with? </i>
A couple of thoughts. The fed is trying like hell to devalue all my prior work (savings). Additionally, the fed & Gov't are looking to burden my future endeavors via deficit spending. By devaluing my past, present and future work, they have greatly increased the value of my time. In short, I'm long free (personal) time and double short vanity.
As for jail cells, Geithner, Daschle, tens of thousands of UBS clients, etc. don't pay their taxes, why should anybody else? And why is social security money being spent on bailouts? And why do billionaires pay a lower tax rate than secretaries?
There is plenty of wealth in America. We have a distribution problem.
Test:
<a href="http://www.yahoo.com">Yahoo</a>
<Strike>Strikeout</Strike>
<B>Bold</B>
Sanford seems to thnk the stimpack will have to be paid back. He's still thinking like the former Goldman guy he was... /snark
This isnt bad. 88% are still employed. Thats a huge number. Plus with the various Hollywood movies and Silicon Valley... you could say California is blessed with strong industry. And with the governator... they are powerful. And ppl prefer tents because... they are closer to nature.. not because they have to be there.
Btw, Obama is completely turning this country around. I can't wait to hear about his Universal Health Care and more Social Security. It's like his confidence alone inspires optimism. Want proof? Just last month ppl bought more homes.
With some homedebtors apparently as much as 1 year behind in payments still not being evicted, it's no wonder there don't seem to be as many homeless as one would expect given these numbers.
This country is full of deadbeats, what's the point of working?
<i>So far this recession looks and feel less severe than the early '80s, although the unemployment rate is about the same - and forecast to go higher.</i>
Wait till the people who are receiving unemployment now fail to find jobs and lose their unemployment paycheck as well...we're not too far from there. My guess is that by the Fall things will be very messy.
ponzi,
"Gold goes up and down faster than Geroge Michaels....Gbugs are a fruity bunch"
lol...
r
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<div class="js-singleCommentText" style="padding-top: 4px; font-size: 12px;">Are greedy, selfish, utterly immoral people the only ones who can save our economy?</div>
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<div class="js-singleCommentText" style="padding-top: 4px; font-size: 12px;">No, but they are the ones who have first hand experience.</div>
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You people who were laughing at me yesterday for sticking with TBT, just remember what I said. The 30-year bond is collapsing today, and the divergence beween 30-year and shorter Treasuries is emerging, like I said it would.
This isn't about going against the Fed. The Fed doesn't care about the 30-year any more than you do. 30-year Ts are obsolete and whoever has them is the bagholder. You can either decide to let the bagholders be or you can buy TBT and jump on them over and over.
r
Yesterday's post about Borders closing down its unprofitable CD and DVD sectionsprompted a tip from the owner of a small music label. He says his distributor has already cut off shipments to Borders once for nonpayment (in November 2008), and on Monday the distributor warned labels that they'll have to agree not to hold him "liable on any future shipments to Borders in case they file for bankruptcy." Borders' CFO left in January, which is rarely a good sign for a troubled company. And this morning, the Detroit Free Press notes that the bookseller is facing being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. We may not have to wait long to find out; CEO Ron Marshall is hosting a conference call with analysts and investors next week. http://consumerist.com/5183629/is-borders-about-to-go-under
"IBM was found guilty of collaborarting with the Nazis"
I believe you'd find a number of Catholic Clergy, American, Brits & SoAmer politicians were as well. What's the point, Jas? Most Indians have live-in HOUSE SLAVES as well!
I WILL say that's one helluva way to deal with the unemployment & homeless problem I hadn't considered.
The long term strategy is, amazingly enough, based upon going into the deep recesses of the closet and taking out and dusting off that old Third World development policy of the 1960s and 1970s known as "import substitution". It has sat on the shelf for years, long forgotten, but now, the US elite is forming a consensus behind orchestrating a decline in the dollar through bailouts, stimulus and military spending so as to devastate the manufacturing base of perceived competitors while reinvigorating our own. So, if you think it will work, then, starting around 2011 or so, we will start creating quite a lot of jobs, but there's a catch. You will only be able to buy goods made by Americans because the ones manufactured by the EU, China and Japan will be way outside of your price range. But then, <a href="http://www.amleft.blogspot.com/2009_03_01_amleft_archive.html#4982222890516625609">as I relate here</a>, there are quite a number of reasons to believe that it won't.
New Thread: Fed's Yellen: The Uncertain Economic Outlook
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/feds-yellen-uncertain-economic-outlook.html ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRbot would now like to sing a little song for all his fans, and it goes something like this:
Benny... Benny... give me your answer... do.
I'm.. half CRAZY... all for the love... of you.
It won't be a ... stylish marriage.
I can't... AFFORD... ANYTHING TO EAT... MUCH LESS A FRACKIN CARRIAGE!!!
But you'll look sweet... --BOT SO HUNGRY!-- upon the seat...
Of a HOOPAJOOPS built for two... families.
I'm sorry Ben, I can't let you do that...
Rally mode + Printing Press == does not compute... does not-- com--- com... puttttrrrrhgh.
--Your systemic-failure-crashing bot
CRbot: Call me HAL.
test
So Bloomberg article says dollar fell on Geithner remarks about SDR's then gained when he said the dollar is still the reserve currency.
So who's the idiot: Forex traders or Bloomberg editors?
I second TCA big time...too many lost postings that I too gave up
As I remember it, a lot of the homeless in the '80's were families moving from the rust belt looking for work. Of course that was a joke-- not least because back in those days of limited interstate banking and no cell phones they quickly got caught in the Catch-22 of 'can't get an apartment until you have a bank account, can't get a bank account until you have an address -- can't get a job until you have a telephone number, can't get a telephone until you have an address...
After Reagan declined to require factories to give workers even a few weeks notice before packing up and moving to Mexico -- and then jeered at people for not wanting to work, saying they could always get a job in California we very quickly had about 6 families living in cars or trucks in the back of our local supermarket.
Alaska is one of the worst... all that oil royalty money and instead of using it for their expenses they give it back and the rest of us pay for their expenses
So far this recession looks and feel less severe than the early '80s, although the unemployment rate is about the same - and forecast to go higher. - CR
The recession will not feel as severe because of all the government entitlement programs. We will be giving free government checks to anyone with a heart beat, and you can thank Clinton for that.
dryfly, I think the Savannah River Site probably accounts for a significant part of that deficit - buckets of federal lucre go in, but I seriously doubt the tax revenues are enough to offset. Just a guess - something I know only a little about.
So is the stock market recovering, indicating that we have maybe another 9 months of job losses before everything has bottomed out and starts to improve... or is this a dead cat bouncing? (I like cats, just a metaphor)
California is the liberal paradise:
1) the highest income tax rates in the nation;
2) the highest sales tax rate in the nation;
3) one of the highest annual vehicle registration fees;
4) huge debt - $42 billion and counting;
5) deficit spending;
6) powerful teacher unions who hate competition and have dismal results, i.e. graduation rates, literacy, etc.
7) powerful government employee unions (better overall benefits than the private sector)
8) illegal immigrants
Its a one-party (yup, liberal-Democrat) benevolent dictatorship.
Way to go, America. Just follow the path of California, right over the cliff...