ova: thanks, so many old railroad tracks run through NoVa, its hard to keep all the trails straight.

Homelessness.  Vacant residential.  Vacant commercial.  Overfilled Jails.  No refuges for mentally ill. Somehow this doesn't add up in a humane society.

And they are watching you.

"Commercial real-estate loans are going sour at an accelerating pace, ... "
 
I think CRE is going to be slow-motion.  Not as liquid as RRE, with most tenants locked into long term leases, with the only way out BK when a competitor runs them out with the competitive advantage of a lower rent.

Mannwich,
 
Yes, but when do you exit SRS?

The stock market is soaring in Zimbabwe too.

So I now announce the:
Commercial
Property
Asset
Preservation
Programm
 
This CRAPP will stabilize values and set benchmarks for values on the Balance Sheets of many corporations. This is not a revenue losing program. It will make money for taxpayers in the long haul. Each and every taxpayer should be proud in that they are contributing to this fund to preserve the very way of life we all aspire to. Long live Amerika. Oh, and please send you income taxes in early so that we can take our cut to preserve your freedom.

from eurointelligence:
 
What is going to make this worse is all the horses pulling in different directions. Meanwhile the ponies like Latvia will get trampled - yet again
 
Over here in Europe, the policy response is just as bad. The Germans have been bailing out institutions such as IKB Bank with no systemic relevance whatsoever. The same actually goes for Hypo Real Estate. Its policy relevance is purely to secure Germany’s leadership in the market for Pfandbriefe or covered bonds. In other words, the Germans are bailing out to secure or maintain a competitive edge against other euro area countries. That’s also behind the Irish rescue programme. Ever the good Europeans, the Irish only care about Dublin’s status as a European finance centre. We should not be surprised that Germany stubbornly rejects the idea of euro area wide, or EU wide, bailout scheme

Yeah go USA!  We suck less.  Even better, we did it with China's money.  Welcome to capitalism you noobs.

"This CRE bust has been obvious for a few years ... maybe a little foresight would have helped."
 
CR Is a bit ticked that a few well intentioned but dumb people game the system

<i>"In perfect hindsight, we would have done less commercial real-estate lending," said Larry B. Faigin, president and CEO.</i>
 
Don't they pay these guys to have some sort of insight? How is this guy not just a random babble generator that draws from financial newspaper headlines and motivational book blurbs? I'm glad they're aware they suck, it would be pretty dismal if they didn't know. Somehow, though -- I expected the bar to be set higher?
 
We need to ask ourselves how as a society our answer can be "whocoodanode?" and that is taken seriously and accepted. These conditions were evident to superficial examination. How long have you been talking about the coming CRE bust, since 2006? Not like you're the sole beacon of wisdom in the world. So how did it happen that these loans were made well after people were stridenly sounding the alarm?

Michael,
 
Has anyone told you that certain people here are not what they seem?

"The Irish had no business getting involved with finance in the first place"
 
Take that back! The best finance person I know is my bar tender. He keeps accurate records and can tell me to the pence how much I owe.

Only nova.

On a limb. Me thinks that C has 1.4T in (bad) Tier III. I dont care how much they sell of what, there is no going back.

well a comment was eaten
 
All I wanted was a pony
now I am storing macaroni
everything they told me to try
has turned out to be god damned lie
 
Please make it go away
please make it go away
I don't want to play
 
 

lawn grass - civil sevants come and go...who cares!

Michael,
 
If you delete one letter in each of his names then robb dawg becomes rob daw
 
this is three letters just like the nsa and cia and fbi
 
now do you understand?

<div class="js-singleCommentHeader">
<div style="float: left;">Rob Dawg says:</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentDate" style="float: right;">Today, 9:55:05 PM</div>
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText"><i>Has anyone told you that certain people here are more than they seem?</i></div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Rob Dawg, for example, is actually the guy that the character "Animal Mother" from Full Metal Jacket is based on.</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Nemo is a vodyanoi living at the bottom of a lake in Russia.
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Pavel Chichikov is a Vatican agent.</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Comrade Counterpointer is actually a Jack Russel Terrier. On the internet, you cannot tell he is a dog.
</div>

Check out this advanced weapon system.
 
Heat Ray gun
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFRoMUorNEc

The right answer is a complete collapse and reset. The only question is, what form of government we return to.

...and if you can avoid massive civil unrest - bonus points.

Has anyone noticed how similar 'Rob Dawg" is to "R. Daneel Olivaw"?

Well, Michael, if that happens, I hope you and your family live to see the new form of government.

Has anyone noticed how similar 'Rob Dawg" is to "R. Daneel Olivaw"?
 
I haven't heard that accusation in centuries... err I mean years.  Yeah, years.  

"Roubini praises Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers"
 
What the?  Positioning for the soon to be vacant job?  That is some pretty foul Kool-Aide.

popeye,
I forget where I might have used those words, but it was probably a lack of clarity in grammar when using adjectives rather than a nou

Perfect hindsight? This CRE bust has been obvious for a few years ... maybe a little foresight would have helped.

I think any sight at all would help Cr. Who's tutoring Latin? I would like to learn a few swear words....if we are going to run an empire might be useful.

"what is a Run-off or a Run-off portfolio ?"
 
When Bernie Madoff "runs off" with your money.

"Roubini praises Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers" 

 
Roubini booking a seat on the last flight out of Doomsville.

what is a Run-off or a Run-off portfolio ?
 
run-off is the change in the outstanding principal balance of an MBS portfolio because of the prepayments or refinances.

"Roubini praises Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers"
 
O announces that Roubini is scheduled to head an economic stabilaztion committee with the objective to look at collective belly button lint and its influence on the economic stimulas for pharma skin products - position pays 300k/year and  carries a max of a 30 year contract. This is part of the healthcare initiaitve and the goal of economic interest to preserve or create 4M jobs.

My spider senses tell me tomorrow's claims number could come in better than expected'.

Thanks Basel.  Gotta admit this stuff was well quanted and acronymed.

Asia is showing some pretty broad optimism right about now...

"Senator Byron L. Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota."
 
Just another doomer.  What do they know...

r
No wonder Geithner is attempting to gain more power to control not just the banks and insurance corporations, but now all multi-national corporations. He needs to hide their toxic sausage and keep their books closed to the taxpayers, otherwise the whole global ponzi scheme evaporates instantaneously. Geithner and the Fed cannot be given the power to secretly assume the debt owed to foreign entities that is entwined in these bankrupt multi-nationals using this process since US taxpayers never promised to pay nor were we obligated to insure them. If we do, it means complete bankruptcy for us since we can never pay back this debt. We need to close down each and every one of these bankrupt multi-nationals and let them declare bankruptcy even if it means the bondholders lose, but we must, of course, save the insured FDIC deposits. I hate to quote Greenspan, but the intent of securitization was to spread the risk around the planet. The foreign entities that bought this crap are big boys who knew full well they had to buy it in order to sell their products in the US. 

I naively assumed bank stock had tanked because they took writedowns.  EHP's charts from Zero Hedge show most assets are still being carried at 90-95%.

popeye,
ok ... I had a vague memory of a poorly written post
 
run-off for MBS portfolios is when homeowners prepay the mortgage (eg if interest rates have fallen). So the MBS portfolio ends up with less assets, and lower lifetime income
 
not only are banks getting dinged by the people who can't/aren't paying their mortgages, they are getting dinged by those who are making early payments to take advantage of low mortgage rates. 

popeye: in the context of that chart, the biggest change in the outstanding principal will be from default.  definitely not prepayment.

does anyone know of the pilot lived in the F-22 crash today?

Olivaw was a police detective in a series of short stories by Larry Niven. He was the guy with the prosthetic arm and the ability to use telekinesis in the same range as the arm he lost. I think.
 
That was Gil "the Arm" who coincidentally worked with A.R.M.  He was, however, a construct of Niven while Asimov was/is R. Daneel's creator.  I met the good doctor several times.  Interesting critter.  

Does this mean TARP is replacing bridge financing and private equity for M&A activity?

No google here, but you are mixing up Gil the Arm from Niven with R.Daneel the robot from Asimov...

"former derrivatives trader, frank partnoy, washes the derrivatives and hedge fund industries dirty laundry, in pubic, during this informative interview on "Fresh Air" "
 
Thank-you for the head's up.  Terry is pretty a fantastic interviewer, but usually has people on that I don't particulary care to hear about.

3rd try at correction
 
former hedge fund trader, frank partnoy, washes the derrivatives and hedge fund industries dirty laundry ,in pubic, during this informative interview on "Fresh Air"
 
warning , when i got done listening, even after all ive learned here at CR...i still wanted to throw the radio out the window.
 
the banksters truly are terrorists and should be tried and executed
 
Fresh Air from WHYY : NPR
 

Any SRS takers out there with this news?  Any thoughts on it's decay?

Slashdot | German Police Raid Homes of Wikileaks.de Domain Owner
 
"police have raided the home of Wikileaks.de domain owner Theodor Reppe (PDF) over internet censorship lists that were leaked two weeks ago. What the Australian government's secret ACMA internet censorship blacklist has to do with Germany is a mystery."
 
I wonder when the FTC is going to go after NEMO for blowing holes in the "Plan that will work."

michael: as yogi said, $ is fungible, but the TARP sure did help.  From the LATimes:
 
Big Pharma bulks up with Merck-Schering deal
 
I just don't think that TARP was intended to finance hundreds of billions in M&A activity resulting in tens of thousands of job losses and increased costs to the health care system.  But Pandit and Dimon can say they've been profitable this quarter.

r
God's Away On Business
YouTube - Tom Waits - "God's Away On Business"

I'd sell your heart to the junkman baby
For a buck, for a buck
If you're looking for someone to pull you out of that ditch
You're out of luck, you're out of luck

Ship is sinking
The ship is sinking
The ship is sinking

There's a leak, there's a leak in the boiler room
The poor, the lame, the blind
Who are the ones that we kept in charge?
Killers, thieves and lawyers

God's away, God's away
God's away on business, business
God's away, God's away
God's away on business, business

Digging up the dead with a shovel and a pick
It's a job, it's a job
Bloody moon rising with a plague and a flood
Join the mob, join the mob
It's all over, it's all over
It's all over

There's a leak, there's a leak in the boiler room
The poor, the lame, the blind
Who are the ones that we kept in charge?
Killers, thieves and lawyers

God's away, God's away
God's away on business, business
God's away, God's away on business, business

Godddamn there's always such a big temptation
To be good, to be good
There's always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby
It's a deal, it's a deal

God's away on business, business

I narrow my eyes like a coin slot baby
Let her ring, let her ring
God's away on business, business

"If this is the case, can someone please explain why Goldman was funneled $12bil through AIG?"
 
"Goldman's credit-default swaps"
 
Because they were owed it by AIG via the CDS.
 
 

"I wonder how much of AIG's own money went to Goldman?"
 
AIG has money other than gov money?

AIG was selling CDS puts on MBS hand over fist, because "housing never goes down," independant of the 2.5B exposure.
 
GS was one of the counterparties.

Rob Dawg - You met Asimov ! The SO and I were huge fans. My wife actually shed a tear and more when she heard that he'd passed away - I still remember that day  - summer 1992, breakfast in the Residence Inn in Arcadia, CA - when that news came on the news on TV. she started crying and people in the lounge gathered round to ask what's what and to console her. Sad day.
 
-K

Senator Paul Wellstone, Democrat of Minnesota, said that Congress had ''seemed determined to unlearn the lessons from our past mistakes.''  


''Scores of banks failed in the Great Depression as a result of unsound banking practices, and their failure only deepened the crisis,'' Mr. Wellstone said. ''Glass-Steagall was intended to protect our financial system by insulating commercial banking from other forms of risk. It was one of several stabilizers designed to keep a similar tragedy from recurring. Now Congress is about to repeal that economic stabilizer without putting any comparable safeguard in its place.'' 
 
There is a lesson there - if you rail against deregulation then you better stay out of small planes. [Puts tin foil hat back on].
 

Bad banks fail.  Good banks buy up remnants of bad banks and acquire new deposit accounts.  Good banks get stronger and stronger until they are too big to fail.  They promptly fail.
 
It has all happened before, it will all happen again.