Restaurant Peformance Index: 16th Consecutive Month of Contraction
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CalculatedRisk on Tue, 03/31/2009 - 7:55am (129 comments)
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The contractions are coming more rapidly now. It's just about time.
This comment thread has been HALO-IZED by CRbot.
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The Latest from Ritholz:
NBER: Household and Establishment Survey Differences Are Cyclical
This answers Nemo's Cheesesteak question.
How is SPAM doing?
Nemo, just to be clear, are you calling bottom again, as is your custom, or are you talking about 'something else'?
I think Geithner just needs some good ole' fashioned mojo.
this is inflationary right?
From Cracker Barrel to over a barrel.
One thing we can be proud of in the states is our proclivity to wrap everything in bacon. All the restaurants have caught onto this craze. Would you like bacon on your cobbler, sir? How about some bacon in your shake? Would you like us to wrap some bacon around your bacon? Would you like to take that bacon home with you? Here's a bacon bracelot for your children and some bacon crayons to keep them occupied. Hell, even P.F. Changs is serving bacon on things. Would you like bacon with your eggrolls? How about our Sweet & Sour Bacon appetizer?
what about baconaise? god that stuff is good... /looking for a link....
Baconnaise
FWIW, Elvis loved bacon on his PB&J-
Mmmmm, sweet and sour bacon...it's sweet, and sour, AND savory!
No bacancy.
Interesting anecdote regarding a restaurant here in Bubbleville, California:
Customer traffic is up and so are sales. It seems locals either have more discretionary income or are more willing to spend what they do have.
The owner's take: People have doubled up on housing or are living 'rent free' in the sense that they've discontinued making mortgage payments and the lenders aren't doing anything to take back the house.
So they can afford to eat out more often. But for how long?
As it says in the report, the "outlook for sales growth in the months ahead remains uncertain."
Here's a photo of a guy with no shoulders trying to tackle a Pat's Cheesesteak. Does Pat's really need added salt? Anymore salt, and it will be pickled. Jesus, who's this guy's doctor? It makes me nostaligic for those campaign days. The recent campaign wasn't long enough.
http://www.patskingofsteaks.com/photos.html
ahhh when rachel ray use to be hot.... ahh the good ole days...
MB, go talk to the sanator from Iowa about that.
(Kevin Bacon pun here)
Nemo:
Cool. Delivery room blogging.
Waddaya gonna call the kid if it's a boy? Calvin Roubini?
The contractions are coming more rapidly now. It's just about time.
Another satisfied customer...
So, Elmo taking the day off, or does anyone think the afternoon will be a bad one?
Is Geithner scheduled to speak?
out on mission st. in sf bacon wrapped hot dogs are the thing. unlicensed carts furtively selling the greasy items.
is this a great country, it answers itself
heard about bacon salt 2 years ago as a local radio station had the inventors on a morning show. the dj's tried it on everything including vanilla ice cream. they said it did the job. i passed on it.
www.baconsalt.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTxH0DC_C7A
Anecdote: Bank of America branch in Boston was chainlocked shut today, with a stuffed dummy locked to the door, a protest action by anti-foreclosure group. Bomb squad called, people locked in the branch, etc. I think this is going to cause headaches for those involved.
If you want to protest, stop consuming.
That sounds move like PRC (Peoples Republic of Cambridge
)
kermit is definitely eating the flies today, though the reverse bat sign with wings at the opening may portend rockiness when the boys in greenwich fire up their hard drives
so , you guys are saying they're having a hard time selling pork? hucudanode
Re: Baconnaise
Think of all the good stuff that no one has thought of yet because Wall Street has misdirected our best and brightest to the meaningless task of trading elctronic blips representing scraps of paper. Baconnaise should become the rallying cry in response to complaints that limiting compensation will cause the talent to leave the banks.
No bonus? No, Baconnaise!
does baconnaise come in smooth and chunky?
End-of-quarter window dressing is just about the most absurd phenomenon I can imagine...
@Outsider: <br/>Actually, I give the chainers some credit. I'm not sure it would totally encompass the concept of "non-violent" protest, but no one was hurt and did convey a sense of anger and frustration. To be honest, I think the trauma of being locked in a BoA would be worse than just being hit in the face. It tends to be that bad.
Well, I guess this was expected as we have been setting record after record for the number of people receiving food stamps - currently 31.5 million or ~ 10.5% of the population in the U.S.
Cramer is right again, there's always a bullsh%t market somewhere. Give him time, he'll find it.
Tax refunds are just about completely spent by consumers. We know that consumers will spend just about every extra penny they get and will not save for a rainy day. Well, their tax refund money is just about completely gone at this point in time. Start looking for the next leg down in consumer spending.
I have also seen restaurant and retail traffic up in CA. Moving out of that ball and chain house and letting it go to foreclosure must free up a ton of cash. Also, I am running into more and more people who have paid off their cars and don't feel compelled to immediately buy another. Going from a $500 car payment to zero is like getting a $10,000 (pretax) raise. You can do a lot of dining on $500 a month.
I have a social question. Do people here think there were really a ton of people who felt pressure to keep up with the neighbors' frivolous purchases, and now are relieved that they don't feel obligated to buy cars and status clothes as often?
Michael: "We know that consumers will spend just about every extra penny they get and will not save for a rainy day."
We all know that Michael is a CONservative and that Cons hate America and Americans. Or at least we are finally understanding that.
Keep talking, Conjob.
I got some cash after filling taxes. Maybe i can go dine out or something. I won't go buy a car, maybe i will treat myself to a dinner instead.
Homedad,
I think Comrade Kristina had you in mind when she asked that the following link on CDS be reposted [she had to go to work]. Excellent article.
Alarming News: Bank Losses Spreading! | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter
outsider..I like the ingenuity and thinking behind it..what can they prosecute them for? They could use defense that they overheard a conversation in train station that the bank was going to be robbed, so they were only protecting it and added the fake dummy guard for emphasis...
Funny what my IPod plays when I read these threads. I got Rammstein playing "Amerika."
I don't know about the rest of world but we eat out less, and eat more leftovers, except when I cook. We make more money, it just seems stupid.
Way OT. My 13 year old dog with bad legs will no longer get up in the morning to play "Attack the Socky as Owner Dude Puts it On" She just lays there, and watches me with the sad eyes. I noticed she is going white even on the shoulders in the last couple weeks. I think we both know what is coming. She fell down just walking down the hallway last night.
ova sorry to hear about your little bitch (thats what i call mine) dogs are the best!
Government dining-out vouchers could save them.
" Do people here think there were really a ton of people who felt pressure to keep up"
I'm relieved to no longer care about a job or career. It's been a fucking nightmare for the past five years and I did the best I could. I've shifted my focus on work & skills to free-riding on the system.
When do we admit the reality that has been sold to us is not what is happening?
Mints coin it as consumers scramble for gold
| Reuters
OT,
Has anyone seen the new SS Trust Fund projections! Goes into deficit in '17. Size of surplus from 09 to 16 are reduced up to 75%
Trust Fund Projections - washingtonpost.com
Grand Old Turkey:
Anything published by the Washington Post on SS is bullsh*t. They are always advocating the "privitization" con.
I love it. SS blows up sooner rather than later.
<div class="js-singleCommentText">"Do people here think there were really a ton of people who felt pressure to keep up with the neighbors' frivolous purchases, and now are relieved that they don't feel obligated to buy cars and status clothes as often?"</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">
</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">I think so, but i"m not sure that people are consciously aware of it, just like they probabyl weren't aware of the absurd nature of zero savings and so on.
</div>
Bacophobes!
spellcheck headline alert
OT, sales of vacation or "second homes" down 22%. I wonder how it's determined that a home is a vacation home & not a flip or a rental or . . . .http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/03/31/second_home_sales_plunge_22/
some investory guy-I hope so..I believe its happening..I guess will find out later when we can really see these bubble inflating actions kick in from our fed buddies...I know most people that I talk to, are done with consumerism...
why buy a car when you could travel 1/2 the world for same price or less...
Obama announced to day that all restaurant coupons have the full faith and backing of the U.S. Government. The former Czech Prime Minister was livid and said Mr. Obama's coupon guarantee was a way to the fat farm.
More "incentives" from the automakers. What a joke.<br/><br/>http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200903311223DOWJONESDJONLINE000619_FORTUNE5.htm
Do people here think there were really a ton of people who felt pressure to keep up with the neighbors' frivolous purchases, and now are relieved that they don't feel obligated to buy cars and status clothes as often?
Some Investor Guy:
Most definitely.
Popeye:
Thanks for the note. Yeah, read the article, especially since I'm doing some educational work coming up and it is definitely worth the read.
So nice to know that I'm highly correlated with the concept of banking collapse...and the Baconnaise thing is precisely why I love this country...
broward, kudos to you! I like that idea...relocate to central utah, have po box here for calif. unemployment...fish the seiver river and surrounding lakes...hunt some big muleys...grow some food...no tv...walden book and a good truck...sign me up
Aw crap.
What's the use of having a sock puppet if you don't remember to change the verklempt name? Yeah, I'm Smilin' Bob.
Now I gotta put that one to bed. Damn.
The Markopulos has just dropped off the radar screen how come? Imagine you are the lawyer from the SEC in 98 and you go over the Madoff allegations what do you do if you do not understand it? I would go to my boss and say hey boss I really do not understand this but the guy is sincere. Think of the coup if I am right. What happens next well if the boss does not undestand it he goes to his boss. Where was the decision made to drop this thing? The only conclusion I can come to is that we have a corrupt power structure and we are not invited.
Markopulos is my hero. I need mor Markopulos!
French posturing. You'd think that politicians would have learned from the Bush administration just what constitutes "Not Helping"<br/><br/>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aOQK_7R_fqh8&refer=europe
Buy a Ford and get a year's supply of Baconnaise.
Here in cali there is a car ad on the radio that says it might help with your taxes if you buy a car by april 1st. I dont understand. Can anyone hook a brotha up?
(Sounds like a gov scam to me btw....)
"Buy a Ford and get a year's supply of Baconnaise."
For what? Your squirrel dinner?
If there is a fly in your soup, call the FDA for a full refund of your meal.
Social Question
I'll pipe up. Yes, I think people are relieved-need to encourage that all around. The programming for consuming was strong-resisted the urge myself as much as possible. The sad thing was some of the frustrated youngers. I'm in my 40's some of the younger 30 somethings with children and cellphones complaining about 200 , 300 hundred dollar bills...by the time the second one them complained... I said: "Take it off of them, they're kids" the person I said that to actually flinched. I spoke some words of blasphemy (oh no I'm doomed)
Sun Times files Chapter 11:<br/><br/>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajAExsdEoCRs&refer=home
Guest:
Yeah, I'm in the corrupt/fascist camp now. And if I keep writing stuff like this, I have great hope of meeting you in the Dubuque Re-Education Camp (DREC).
Which contraction will give birth to the Depression ?
So what's the next thing to implode during Obama's first 100 days, besides his poll numbers ?
I'm amused that Sun Times filing for BK apparently means that it's worth 60% less than 5 cents per share. At that point why even bother?
I thought of a new way people can economize in a down economy.
Withe so many home theater systems installed these days, people and families should schedule their own movie premiers, showing new releases on their own schedule.
Why pay $10 for a movie ticket + snack expenses to the movie theater? For a family of 4 for 1 night out that could cost $100. Instead, schedule new release showings in the home theater 3 to 6 months after the official release date. Go buy a previewed copy of the movie at blockbuster for $9.99 and save the family 90% of the price of 1 night out at the theater.
Michael, that's the way to hell.
the line in article for ford and gm programs where the govt backed the proposal for paying the car loan in case of unemployment while GM will offer trade in assurance is just fanatical...what are we doing here...I'm thinking of increasing my silver purchases now....
this is going to end ugly...food stamps, welfare, car payment assistance..no ss for me or daughter....
I guess its time to forget about fico's... runup the c cards and default seems like the american way or using your brains...
Smilin' Homedad,
JS-kit is the death of clever sock-puppetry. True, one or two of the regulars don't care and do it anyway, but the rest of us aren't keen on the whole "click the avatar and see who else you've been" feature. Unless... you happen to have another browser installed on your PC you can sneak in with... not that I have ever done such a thing. O:-)
r
Anecdote: Bank of America branch in Boston was chainlocked shut today, with a stuffed dummy locked to the door, a protest action by anti-foreclosure group. Bomb squad called, people locked in the branch, etc. I think this is going to cause headaches for those involved.
prime tactic of the cult of security: if just sht our pants enough, we can say you're at fault and restrict you. Pad lock a door, that's vandalism, maybe obstructing egress from a public place. But if you get all the trustees out and the dogs andthe seachlights and run around like there was an actual emergency, you can say there was.
By letting the "professionals" define the scale of the response, they get to have the lone wolf-domestic terror-omg lets push people against walls and look tactical moment they've all been waiting for their whole lives.
<i>If you want to protest, stop consuming.</i>
If you want to protest, stop believing the police are your protectors and not the thrustee jailers of your country. Stop believing the money is anything other than betting slips. Stop getting all choked up and doing what you're told when someone in power invokes 9/11, the Constitution or WW2. Stop buying the debt of this bankrupt state.
This isn't strictly a condemnation. This test is going on every instant. There are always people who think the system is one big jive. Often, even typically, it is, but people stick with it because life is about little satisfactions. But if enough people decide this is all a big joke, it's done. No really. So you are voting every day, in every way, if there is a state or not.
So wish hard enough and you'll either get what you want or be wrongheaded lunatic fringe. =)
Next the will send out the national guard or the gestapo as an over response.
The so called lunatic fringe are doing a service for the rest of the pacifists and are in their debt. They are what helps keep our country free by raising awareness. The crybaby's just sit on their asses. I would love to be a jury member at the trial of the heroes who chained these doors. No one was hurt and no damage was done. I will find those heroes "Not guilty" under the 7TH Amendment to the Constitution.
Thx nades. I like her more than most people I come across.
My food related doomer activity of the day.
I made a list of all the food warehouses, including specialty ones, in my immediate area. Just in case.
S&P cuts Fiat's rating - just talking to Chrysler will get you in trouble.
"just talking to Chrysler will get you in trouble." ~mark
or an STD
What feature of the middle class do we have to sacrifice next to keep the elite in power?
SS blows up sooner? Well trained Viet Nam vets will still be young enough to mobilize and ask "nicely" for the present that has been promised. Gov would do well to wait until these folks are a lot older before cutting them off.
Some Investor Guy
If anything I would say that people tried to keep ahead or others, rather than keeping up with someone
Like Mr Janitor down the block has a new cadillac, we're better than him and deserve something more than a cadillac
Same thing happens in any workplace when it comes to compensation. It doesn't matter how much you make, it matters how much more than your peers you get. Keeping up doesn't maintain a hierarchy, keeping ahead does
Impressive pump job today. How long until the crash?
Michael, I think you should show porn - like Triumph of the Will and invite the neighbors. Invite your Muslim ones and as they leave tell them you smeared the doorhandles with pork grease. Then invite all your Jewish friends, I am sure you know 100's, and do the same thing!
What do you think? Fun for all ages?
I just thank God every day for making control freaks grow old faster than live and let live people like me.
Well trained Viet Nam vets will still be young enough to mobilize and ask "nicely
ROFL
Right. Don't they have to get stoned first and listen to bad Motown?
GS's Global Alpha racehorses were just sent to the glue factory
Next, I suppose, WWII vets will be forming SWAT teams to storm the VA? As soon as someone can be found to drive them there.
ova,
Sorry if this has already been answered, but what was the final answer on your Mensa question? is it a camera? or the triangular/heart-shaped thingy on a ouija board?
ATM, I can not say. Michael is still trying to figure it out. I know he can do it!
Homedad43
Dubuque Re-Education Camp (DREC).
Yes, look forward to seeing you heeheee
This person is NO Albert Einstein
TheStar.com
http://www.thestar.com/article/604033
Write a paper and run away....no
Would like to remind of this:
Blowback
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowback_(intelligence)
Emotions are funny things...not he who laughs first but....
GAV is back!
i weep for your gs puts...i hope you added in the 110's.
Right. Don't they have to get stoned first and listen to bad Motown?
In that scenario, Creedence Clearwater Revival's version would be more appropriate.
this
But Marvin Gaye is still worth a listen.
What was the mensa question? I saw people guessing but didnt know what was going on....
..........................
Re this link Nothing found for Alarming-news-bank-losses-spreading-32910
Dios mio, scary stuff....
OT, but geeze, I'm pretty sure Donny Deustch's next adventure is marketing Obama kneepads. It's like a tween girl and the Hanson Brothers.
Sportsfan,
I understand and respect your choice but anything Marvin touched then was sublime.
tribalfusion is featuring muppets netflix ads on CR homepage from all the kermit and elmo references.
artificial intelligence and marketing geniuses will save us!
@Nova You may be surprised at how some of the dopers turned out. If pushed they will be able to shove back. How 'bout it BSR, grumpy?
ades, Michael knows. He is a Mensa level Aryan while I am a mulatto eastern european whose mother was jewish and whose father was an unknow cowboy named pete
i'm pretty sure you can say mulatto.... did you see that curbed your enthusium? (i actually didnt know that was a 'bad' word till i saw that episode, and i'm relatively PC)
i left you a message
....................
OT i'm also dyslexic and spelling is an issue... thats my excuse till we get spell check again!
CRBot can you hook a brotha up?
..................................
(can't say....)
If ever there were proof that I need to get a life, it has to be the way nova's Mensa question is bugging me. Like a brain itch.
Damn.
Pass the calamine, would you?
Did the Philly Fed coincidence index creep anyone else out?
There is no where to ru
Nova My condolences. I lost my 12 year old Great Dane 19 days ago. The last year she was in a slow steady downhill. The last day was still to painfully swift.
ova,
Marvin is still sublime long after he left us, but a repetitive bass and related head nodding just seemed so appropriate to an altered state of consciousness.
All Fall Down, ROFL
You have been listening to too much Toby Keith.
I have to go the mensa room.
Grand Old Turkey:
Anything published by the Washington Post on SS is bullsh*t. They are always advocating the "privitization" con.
anything to pump the equities
EHP.
No where to run? You, of all the brains here, must have know that for awhile.
Isn't it all color commentary now? On a blow out game?
thx tooooo late.
ova
The no where to run thing is creepy though, reminiscent of an Alfred Hitchcock movie.
If anything pushes people over the edge, it will be that. It's the last measure of control over one's life -- the ability to provide given effort
r
, New England’s tallest skyscraper, was sold at auction to Normandy Real Estate Partners and Five Mile Capital Partners LLC for $661 million, about half of what it traded for just three years ago.
CR, here is another sign of trouble for CRE.
"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Boston’s John Hancock Tower
<
p style="margin-top: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px;">The companies agreed to pay $20.1 million for the mezzanine debt on the 60-story building and assume the mortgage of $640.5 million, according to a statement issued at the auction in New York.
<
p style="margin-top: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px;">“We will look forward to serving their tenants in keeping with the high standards for which Normandy is known,” Normandy and Five Mile said in a statement.
<
p style="margin-top: 8px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 8px; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px;">The price shows how far real estate values have fallen since their peak in 2007. The sale is a defeat for owner Broadway Partners and company founderScott Lawlor. The firm paid $1.3 billion for the property in 2006 and defaulted on its loan. The building was the crown jewel in Broadway’s $3.3 billion purchase of 10 buildings from Boston-based Beacon Capital Partners LLC in December 2006."
"tribalfusion is featuring muppets netflix ads on CR homepage from all the kermit and elmo references. "
Quick! Everyone type "Scarlett Johanson"
Having gotten severely stoned in Asia a little bit past that time period I would have to agree. CCR for the head groove.
No where to run is a spirit crusher. We are not there yet. People think they can still dance with this devil.
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday voted to increase the borrowing authority of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp as the banking agency expects a slew of bank failures this year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN3140308720090331
The fleecing continues.
"Well trained Viet Nam vets will still be young enough to mobilize and ask "nicely"....."
I don't know of a Nam vet that ISN'T well-trained AND probably a bit PO'ed over this whole bunch of BS.
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getting the three martini lunch kermit
It is amazing that Ghandi brought down the the British empire by picking up a pinch of salt.
Otis Redding
and anon not sure about Grand Old Turkey
Wild Turkey is nice on occasion (goes well with Otis by the way)
Yep - Only difference is these days I just have to make sure I put my teeth in before I pick up the rifle.
Wall Street has had their eyes on SS for a long time. That is the prize they are after, so expect to hear more dire warnings of SS. They will eat away at every middle class institution until nothing is left. Even in the midst of this catastrophe, it's amazing how much power they still have. We need to beat them to a bloody pulp before they will back off.
NO VOLUME HERE FOLKS...NONE!
Shark Investing - Volume Charts
sorry about the double post....Js-kit = lame...but at least we have something...so thumbs up as always cr.
"CR, here is another sign of trouble for CRE.
"March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Boston’s John Hancock Tower, New England’s tallest skyscraper, was sold at auction to Normandy Real Estate Partners and Five Mile Capital Partners LLC for $661 million, about half of what it traded for just three years ago."
Thank you for updating us on that! I had forgotten about it, like I knew I would.
So it DID go for even less than they thought (didn't CR's post say something like 750m?). Okay, well that's a signpost.
That may be b/c it costs $15-$30 to eat out now. Was about $10 up until last year.
Granted food inflation needed to happen sometime...but 50%-300% price increases in 12 months will tank any industry.
People can at least count a little.
Back on topic, it's surprising to me how well many of the large restaurant chains have performed over the past four months since November carnage. Darden, Brinker, and Cheesecake Factory with incredible gains. I thought the consumer was tapped? Obviously not everybody thinks so. And I don't think these diners are people who stopped paying their mortgage so now they have disposable income. That's hogwash.