March Economic Summary in Graphs
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 03/31/2009 - 9:30am (135 comments)
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Too many charts. Can someone just explain in words?
Pictures are worth a 1000 words. So consider this a 20,000 word post. I expect a book report later today ...
best to all.
LOL!
Ghastly.
r
Great summary and reporting, CR.
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p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">From earlier thread…
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p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">“Book tip for those trying to figure out how the US self-destruct…the U.S. finds its security imperiled by those skilled at deceiving…”
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p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">The same is true about the US economy! I have been saying this for years that deceptors and manipulators control the US economy to serve narrow interests and now they have destroyed it for good.
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p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Jas
My take on the charts: most everything is still getting worse.
my take is that while the bubble couldn't last forever, neither can the cliff diving. Sooner or later, the economy will hit bottom. Of course, it may be the diver will land in a teacup instead of a swimming pool...
(does this qualify for the mixed metaphor contest?)
....reading material for a week.....
More bottoms than CSPAN and Baywatch put together.
BOOK REPORT
Calculated Risk's latest post weighs in at 20,000 words, which is simply too much for this reviewer to handle.
Isn't it a little premature for this post? March isn't over yet.
r
DETROIT – Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. are offering payment protection plans to help reassure consumers who may be putting off buying a new car because of worries about losing their job.
The offers come as auto sales have been battered by the recession and tight credit, reaching their lowest levels in 27 years.
Ford said Tuesday it will cover payments of up to $700 each month for up to a year on any new Ford, Lincoln or Mercury vehicle if consumers lose their jobs. The program runs until June 1.
Hours later, GM said it will make a similar offer. GM's new CEO, Fritz Henderson, said the company will make up to nine car payments of $500 each for customers who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own.
Home and refi activity are extreme levels in Sonoma and Napa these days.
Bank of America needs 7 to 10 days to issue pre approval letters these days since refi activity is so strong, a few weeks ago they would do it in hours!
Now I understand why the market is going up.
.........revised OECD report ......US GDP is forecast to fall 4.0 percent in 2009 then remain unchanged next year.........
http://www.oecd.org/document/59/0,3343,en_2649_33733_42234619_1_1_1_1,00.html
Great post CR; a graphic representation of the $#!t hitting the fa
CR - All that said, I'm depressed.
--
But CR is not in the depression camp yet.
Jas
Meanwhile, in other news, Toro lawnmowers said it would pay for the seeding of your front yard with Bremuda or Rye if you bought a self propelled lawnmower in the next 3 months.
As we get closer to 2010 elections, politicians may start panicking. Two years and they still couldn't stop bonus payments to TARP recepients?
Calderon Says Mexico Prepared to Take IMF Credit Line
Calderon Says Mexico Prepared to Take IMF Credit Line (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Put it on my Maestro Card
BULLISH!
Loaded up on FAS ahead of Thurs mark-2-market. Already starting to bleed some off...
Today's rally isn't that large, but it is extremely powerful in the financials and the REITs. I wonder if it's just window dressing, or if there are rumors coming out about the FASB meeting going on today?
Nemo, if more data is released this afternoon, I'll update the post.
Barley, I understand. There are some minor positives - but they are definitely minor. Q1 GDP is going to be REALLY ugly. I'm still guessing around -7% (but the spread is huge). This will probably be the two worst quarters since 1958 - and the three worst since the Great Depression.
best to all.
Today's stock market is reminiscent of mid-2008, back when bulls were ignoring the massive and growing foreclosure problem, and the accompanying collapse of the financial system.
Today's market is ignoring the massive and growing unemployment problem, and the accompanying collapse of the real economy.
Thusday is also when the G20 meet.
IMF loan = dictator padding his swiss bank account.
Testing... Recent comments seem to have disappeared...
You fotgot to mention the $3.5 Trillion budget outline (the senate is currently debating.
a) $3.5 Trillion budget : Whoooaaa !
b) another $3.5 Trillion you don't have !!!
Bon Voyage on your road to hell ! Hahaha !
PCE wil not bottom because credit lines are still being cut. Yes it is different this time
“I send you a kaffis of mustard seed, that you may taste and acknowledge the bitterness of my victory.” - Alexander The Great
Question for the board/CR:
Re Unemployment rate, is U-3 or U-6 the rate which is most reflective of the methodology used to measure unemployment during the Great Depression?
Thanks.
I'll check back later, have to check on a sick kid.
Note for fathers: if kid has a fever, don't let him/her watch NCIS before bedtime. Or any other "alphabet" show, i.e. SVU, CSIs, CI, etc.
Do a poll of your neighbors. Ask them if they know where our money is created? and that it is created in debt? Where do we get the money to pay off that debt to include the principal and interest? If money created in debt must it constantly expand or then we risk a deflaltionary implosion? In such a system is saving possible? How come this was never explained in my economics class in college? Do the green cheese manufacturers really want us to understand?
CR - My guess is -5.5% for Q1. I think Q2 will be worse, much worse. Any thoughts on the jobs num...my guess -980
"CR - My guess is -5.5% for Q1. I think Q2 will be worse, much worse. Any thoughts on the jobs num...my guess -980"
I think March will be peak monthly job loss but 980K is too high. I also believe you are wrong about Q2 GDP.
Good thing about increasing protectionism is that it will cause Inflation, YAY
CR..many thanks for all the graphs and data.
Your work is much appreciated.
GDP = MY guess is around -6% give or take .3% either way
Just saw Fritz Henderson’s, GM's new CEO, press conference. : Blah, blah , blah, blah, ..... Blah.
Boy, if you ever saw an empty suit . Hihihi.
Today's rally isn't that large, but it is extremely powerful in the financials and the REITs. I wonder if it's just window dressing, or if there are rumors coming out about the FASB meeting going on today?
I dunno, but I expected a pretty decent rally in these today because they've been momentum trades in this rally, and these usually give pretty good bounces until they completely break down.
I expected some sort of bounce today just for Quarterly Statement Expiration Tuesday.
IS the FM/FR moratoria on foreclosures lifted this week? Don't Fannie and Freddie cover something like more than 2/3rds of all mortgages in the United States?
Nemo writes:
Isn't it a little premature for this post? March isn't over yet.
CR is just setting us up for April Fool's Day.
I'm looking for the silver lining of good news,...hell, I'll setttle for nickel or chromium.
protectionism is there and always has been. the question is: who's getting the protection?
Google to form off-balance-sheet research division, follow Boston Chicken down path to fraudulent financial reporting:
http://embed.mibbit.com/url/jMbkhN
Tribune reports Sun Times to implement one-week rolling layoffs ("furloughs") for all non-union employees:
http://embed.mibbit.com/url/nDEufz
Just for the record (and the humor-impaired), I was joking about "too many charts". Everyone knows CR does the best damn charts on the planet.
You know how Cuba has all those pre-1962 autos preserved in somewhat working order? Imagine the US in 10 years trying to keep our Toyotas and Hondas running with no prospect for a domestic replacement and no access to international markets.
Werner - He will make a good Administrator.
"Treasury didn't make any effort to monitor money that went to the 364 banks its has invested in, despite requests for information by oversight panels.
"Either you get Treasury to get some religion on this point and get some standards ... or Congress [will be] forced to step in," said Harvard Law professor Elizabeth Warren, chairman of the Congressional Oversight Panel, at a Senate Banking Committee hearing."
Last month, Warren told a Senate panel that Treasury had overpaid by $78 billion for bank stocks and warrants it took in firms participating in TARP. She said that the group's valuation study on the $254 billion in TARP transactions in 2008 found that Treasury only received assets worth about $176 billion.
HOW MANY TIMES CAN THIS GO ON?
My prediction. Inital report on GDP Q1'09 = -6.4%±0.3%
Man overboard!
Damn, I woke up thinking this was April Fools Day, and what do I get? Slash my throat graphs up the wazoo a day early.
I want my blankie!
Mark to marktet for CALpers on their MBS this week?
'Just for the record (and the humor-impaired), I was joking...'
too late nemo, the damage is done.
In my teen years I patched my tail pipe with a dog food can and wire and kept the windows up by wedging them with clothes pins. Now, with all those computer modules and engine checks, it's going to be tough to even get the beast started.
Nemo:
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<div class="js-singleCommentText">Too many charts. Can someone just explain in words?</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Two words: we're fucked.</div>
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Today's rally isn't that large, but it is extremely powerful in the financials and the REITs. I wonder if it's just window dressing, or if there are rumors coming out about the FASB meeting going on today?
...............just technical bouncing nothing more than that......Asian , European markets closed positive side .......esp FTSE up around +4......celebrating G20 or what?........
Nemo - How jobs have we lost since O took office?
How jobs have we lost since O took office? - Barley
-as if he had anything to do with forces set in motion before he took office, unless your question is nothing more than coincidental curiosity, in which case, it is not only meaningless, but pointless.
Luckily, there are a few charts going up.
Here's a prediction - U-6 (unadjusted) will be at 17%!
Nemo - Too many charts obviously means: PEAK CHARTS. Bottom !
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FAA forecasts on flights, passenger traffic, cargo traffic for 2009
CBC News - Money - U.S. air traffic will drop in '09, FAA predicts
Nemo says:
...Everyone knows CR does the best damn charts on the planet...
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Right, they look much more pleasant than shadowstats’ ones.
Jas,
I knew you would like the Jeff Gates book. Luckily, some Americans can still muster the resolve to put up a fight before the lights finally go off.
You may wish to visit his blog as well.
This is a piece on AIG and the Rubin-Summers-Greenberg syndicate.
Criminal State
It's amazing how the day to day stock market moves color the forecasts of the dingbats on the financial propaganda networks.
Here's the funny part. The bubble eCONomy has left the majority penniless. And yet these financial (mis)managers fail to recognize that crucial fact. Most still believe that wall street will bring prosperity to mainstreet. Oh well, you have to sell yourself before you can sell others.
American finance is a sham - intellectually dishonest. A big casino. And there are NO long term winners in a casino.
And there are NO long term winners in a casino.
Except for the house and government that "regulates" it.
Don't forget everybody-- April 1st is Teabag your Dear Leaders day!!
Dear Leader Obama
White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave
Washington , DC 20500
Find your congressional Dear Leaders here:
U.S. Senate: Senators Home
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml
So, if we had to choose a concluding statement from the bevy of data CR has provided here, what would it be?
None Of The Above. Here's What I Think:
A) The Bottom Is Near
B) We're So Screwed. Stock Up On Guns, Canned Beans and Baconnnaise.
C) There Is No Way Of Concluding Anything. We're In Uncharted Territory.
D) There Is Nothing To See Here. Keep Moving. The Economic Crisis Is No Crisis At All. It's Just Hyped Nonsense.
E) We Should Make Pharmaceuticals From Rayon.
F) This Is Nothing A Manned Mission To Mars Can't Cure.
G) All Of The Above
American finance is a sham - intellectually dishonest. A big casino. And there are NO long term winners in a casino.
.......that's financial market's inherent characteristics .......Asian and European markets are not different......it's all scam.....we are way too much though........
Red lights everywhere. CR, you are the Instrument Panel of Doom.
Morocco, I'd add a choice I) to your list: Two years from now, things will be very different. Different than they have been, and different than they are now. A safer bet I could hardly imagine.
r
A summary post in case you were dead for the past 31 days or if you're into economic masochism. No points for knowing which group CR readers belong.
Why do we assume that 1) Consumers will maintain their standard of living and the continuous increase in their standard of living?
Habits are hard to break and the government is doing it's best to force the "don't be priced out forever" and "it's never been a better time to buy" mentality through all of it's incentivizing. But, unless the government forces everyone to buy cars more often, take on more debt and it enshrines apocryphal lending standards there isn't a way out of the hole.
It's not truly a hole as fake breasts, dog psychologists, botox, 960" TVs, Hummers and credit card debt pouring out your cake hole doesn't make for good resource allocation. Those charts are the solution, not the problem.
Show me a chart of the percentage of people creating to consume time instead of consuming to consume time. I bet it's doing the opposite of cliff diving
Can anyone tell me why the 90-day is up 88% ?
economic decline based upon the firm foundation of deflationary credit destruction. we may have got it wrong on the way up, but we're doing a bang up job pricking every balloon on the way down.
Thank you for the unemployment graph CR
350 pt rally ?
Im currently wondering if there is something to the fact that the G20 meeting is on April Fools day.
We are seeing a seachange in economic activity from housing, cars, IPODS, and other unproductive assets/goods/services....into the necessities like food, energy, etc. The same catagories of CPI that are ignored and have been inflating along with everything else for years now.
Except that now we have helicopter been pumping money into the economy which will naturely go to where the money velocity is. And it is only really moving in food, energy, etc. So while people are taking pay cuts and losing their jobs they will have the pleasure of watching their expenses skyrocket and their savings' expiration accelerate.
Just think of all of the food, oil, etc....we could have bought with 2 TRILLION dollars.
Mismanagement, corruption, incompetence at every turn.
>
None Of The Above. Here's What I Think.... stop spending like you never have to ever pay. <
What, you think we're going to pay all this money back?
You must be new around here, right?
No way the employment numbers are going to be anywhere near as bad as you folks think. The government is going to manipulate those numbers as much as they can. They may even show an increase in employment.
Numbers will be revised sharply downward next month, of course.
Wagoner's replacement is named Fritz? You have got to be kidding me? Fritz? The name says it all. More of the same. We need a man with a name like Duke, or Buck, or Haas, not some rich, ivy league panty waist like Fritz.
Nomination for phrase of the day...
"Corporate bond-limbo"...
"It is corporate-bond limbo like I've never seen before." (re GGP)
Who set the bar so low anyway. Perhaps a graph would help.
I would say "CDS limbo" is lurking in the shadows. (GM)
Cashcarry, Madeoff, Fritz.... Stranger than fiction.
Don't forget Pandit. Our programmers have a sick sense of humor.
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It's not truly a hole as fake breasts, dog psychologists, botox, 960" TVs, Hummers and credit card debt pouring out your cake hole doesn't make for good resource allocation. Those charts are the solution, not the problem.</div>
<div class="js-singleCommentText">Actually , the fake boobs have returned for more to me than the damn boat I bought in December....</div>
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Just in:
Fortis Posts $37 Billion Loss
Fortis Reports $37 Billion Loss but Now Is Optimistic - NY Times
r
heres something you are not likely to find graphed
as a dem i try to listen often to right wing radio
this morning, i heard on the radio, a notable talk show host call for revolution and talk in circumscribed but unmistakable ways that advocate violence
i called in to "get on" but was screened out even tho none of the other callers voiced any oposing opinions
guess there was no room for dissenting opinion...so much for democracy
amazing that so many people who have never attended a town hall meeting, a school board meeting, worked on a campaign or run for political office themselves
are now
ready to go from political apathy and mindless tee vee,all the way to armed violence in one easy step
they are all screaming "socialism" and running around with their hair on fire
these are the same people who acepted taxpayer assistance to build the new football stadium, BLM dams on the columbia river for irrigation of their farms, and publicly financed roads, briges and harbours to transport factory and agri goods to markets
i weep for my country, so dominated by glibb comments and slogans
some thread music...especially for the sheeple...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgBEaZK0rFo
i weep for my country, so dominated by glibb comments and slogans
change you can believe in MT... not trying to be sarcastic...
fiduciary doodle said "change you can believe in"
hey fd, fair enough but jeeze
he said change, not violence and armed revolution
and btw i dont agree with at least 33% of what obamas doing
but for crying out loud, we let bush suspend half the bill of rights, let bin laden escape in the torra borra mountains and run 4.5 trillin in debts and not one word out of the tea bag people
whatsup with that?
@Morocco Bama Duke, Buck or Haas? I'd prefer Mr. Reaper. Put the fetid corpse in the ground and move on.
"Isn't it a little premature for this post? March isn't over yet. "
Nor are the unemployment figures for the month.
"i weep for my country, so dominated by glibb comments and slogans"
The legacy of Cold War propaganda lives on, and is contributing very badly to this whole process.
fid doodie, life is a slogan as is death now...get used to it..
"The legacy of Cold War propaganda lives on, and is contributing very badly to this whole process."
How so?
i didnt write the comment you reference Pavel but let me take a swing at it
the cold war rhetroic promoted mindless fear and an expansion of the military industrial complex to the point where the USA has more than 700 military bases scattered around the world and we spend more on military force structure than all other nations on the planet put together
fear mongering is how our leaders sold this to us
my father was an oil trader and on business traveled to russia his stories about russian made it clear to us the country was rotting from within even before bush 1
Man. You're as bad as the people you condemn. There are legit arguements to be made about cold war policies but to ignore both the history (nuclear war was a real possibility for christ sakes) and context of the decisions made as "mindless fear" crosses the line between colossally simplistic and just plain ol' asinine. Payaso
i have not condemned anyone...but i decry the call to violence and insurection
i dont agree with everything the obama administration is doing, but the guy is trying to halt financial armegeddon that was brought about by errors of the last administration AND the three before that
as for mindless fear...fear can be a good thing in healthy doses, but our rulers have pushed it to the limit and hemmoraged the country to militarism and red ink to our eyeballs...and thus weakened the country
This rally has absolutely punished me. I held FAZ at $31 and finally was stopped out. I lost most of my profit from last year. I'm done and I'm lucky to have what I have at this point, but it is painful. I thought I could play this game, but the manuipulation is too much to fight. You can be 100% correct and if your timing is a little bit off, you're toast. The only way to win is not to play.
"The legacy of Cold War propaganda lives on, and is contributing very badly to this whole process."
Yup. Words. Words are to blame... not fraud, corruption, de-regulation, derrivatives and impossible contracts (CDS).... words. Time to burn some books.
(corrected from 2 min ago sorry)
Nemo wrote too many charts can someone just explain in words (i got the humor btw)
sure Nemo
we arent gonna get flowers
we arnt gonna get dinner out
there will be no kisses
no walks on the beach hand in hand
and we definitelly are not gonna hear sweet lies like, "i love you"
all the rest, we're gonna get
"The only way to win is not to play."
that's so true. My 3% CDs have the same yield as my equity trades minus the stress of holding a short position.
@fiduciary doodie "Actually, the fake boobs have returned for more to me than the damn boat I bought in December..."
Fake boobs are like McMansions, from a distance they fool you, but one touch and you know you've been had.
global financial thermonucler meltdown or a nice game of chess?
Oh... look at that... bond market closed... no more free money from the FED.
At least so far 'Allen M' called the bottom correctly.
Mock,
why on earth do you listen to right wing talk radio if your sympathies lie with the left?
Your blood pressure must be in the four digit range by the end of the afternoon.
Just keep the dial on NPR. You'd be happier, I'd bet.
Baa no npr is not "just as bad" as the right wing talkers
i have never (NEVER) heard an NPR host shout down, name call and rudly interupt a guest or interviewee as i do on some of the right wing networdks
also npr regularly interviews people on both sides of the spectrum and is polite to all
and as for you wishing me to hell...well that sums it up
nice post Baa, it speaks clearly about how you think
ps i bet you rarely if ever listen to npr...i listen to fox and eib several time a week
Shorting some more LOWes' here. Glad I sold my SKF. I hate those leveraged ETF's Stay away.
People on this board should come out with an index of the crappiest bank stocks to short and go long on the pump and dump days. How do you register one?
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, setting the stage for the market's best month in six years as positive news
never undersetimated....
boooyaaaaahahahahahaha
"amazing that so many people who have never attended a town hall meeting, a school board meeting, worked on a campaign or run for political office themselves are now ready to go from political apathy and mindless tee vee,all the way to armed violence in one easy step "
But they're not ready. They SAY they're ready. But they're not. And that's not amazing.
O/T (In the news, Main Page) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia :
Rejoice you poor american wretches :
"The construction of the National Ignition Facility (target chamber pictured), a laser-based inertial confinement ... device ... is announced to have been completed."
Good luck ! (cough, cough)
TCA,
Sorry to hear that the debt pushers got ya...
Stop playing financials....there are some other great opps..heck you can play Nordstroms buy on dips strategy daily now...jwn or Nemos pick BGU morning buy/afternoon sell...VDSI-VIP etc.. look in my msgs regarding ICE 3 wks ago...SRS at low 50's sell at 60 seems to be good play lately....
find the non manipulated stuff..
cd: "find the non manipulated stuff.."
When the dollar is now being opennly manipulated there are few if any real options.
mp has it right - The ability to produce your own machines, energy and food is the way to go.
Y = C +I +G
C is seaonally slow but not dropping like last quarter - could be down 1-2 % . I (this is wher CR is playing economist - the charts seem to imply we're down bigtime 10-15- 20% !!!!) + G is probably down (stae and local spending cutbacks not yet offset by Feds)
Yep I think CR is correct
IT-I agree and with Japan buying stocks openly its hard to go against the tide...but their are some day trades that still work...not all the time..but opportunities are there...respect your opinion a lot...
country was rotting from within even before bush 1
-Yes I think it's called Afganistan (see how that works?)
manipulated
-Nah, it's just that legacy of propaganda,you are imagining the whole thing.
words cause...time to
-I think you'll make the naughty list tsk tsk
"my father was an oil trader and on business traveled to russia his stories about russian made it clear to us the country was rotting from within even before bush 1"
A very common impression. It has seemed obvious to me for a long time that systems fall because people don't love it any more. They may love their country - and Russians do love their country - but the system fell because it had become impossible to live in it and with it any more.
Re: He said change, not violence and armed revolution. Whatsup with that?
People are okay being screwed as long as they understand how they are being screwed. With the current bailouts they know they are getting screwed, but not sure exactly how.
All the funky math (up to 6x's leverage and a 50/50 split) and odd investment deals (convertible preferred shares, non-recourse loans, ring fencing assets). The average guy has no way to to understand how badly they are going to take it in the shorts.
It breeds rage.
Funny that the headlines are crowing about the best market rally since the last bear market, and neglecting to mention that 401k investors' quarterly statements are going to show another hefty, possibly double-digit loss since 12/31. Looks like about 10-11% down since 12/31 for the S&P.
Morocco Bama says:
..."Wagoner's replacement is named Fritz? You have got to be kidding me? Fritz? The name says it all...
Huhh ? A very revered Prussian monarch (proponent of enlightened absolutism) was called "the Old Fritz" .
Frederick II , King of Prussia (from the Hohenzollern dynasty, in his role as a prince-elector of the Holy Roman Empire known as Frederick IV of Brandenburg) became known as "Frederick the Great" (Friedrich der Große) and was nicknamed "der alte Fritz" ("Old Fritz").
So, an extremely honourable respected name it is ! (learn history!)
@ TCA FAZ is a bitch
Werner, I think you fail to appreciate that in the U.S., a car or appliance that has broken down and is in dire need of repair is said to be "on the fritz".
Very appropriate for G.M.!
For that matter, Citigroup is definitely in a state of Pandit (panic!)... Bank of America is about to Lewis (lose) it all... Shall we go on?
cd - thanks. Same to you.
I think the internet is the great pacifier of our time. So much anger is being contained and vented because of it... Without it, there would be a lot more blood on the streets.
I vent alot here. It's therapy that costs nothing.
Learning history really doesn't have jack all to do with it, Weiner. In the U.S., a born and bred American named Fritz conjures an image.....an imgae of a pampered, arrogant, privileged panty waist who dooesn't like to get his hands soiled.
In the U.S., a born and bred American named Fritz ...
I disagree, Mb. I have an Ivy degree, never met anyone with the Christian name Fritz...
it sounds more like an old immigrant or steelworker name.
"Jeez Werner, sometimes I get the feeling you really don't like us. "
Ja. Mit potatoes. The Katolik Church too.
I love the anecdote about Madame Ernestine Schumann-Heink, a great contralto, and a very substantial woman as well.
Once, Toscanini entered a restaurant and saw her tucking into an enormous steak.
"Mina, he said, ' are you going to eat that whole steak all by yourself?"
"Ja,' she answered with gusto, 'mit potatoes."
Another time, she was making her way through the orchestra pit before a performance, creating a bit of a disturbance among the instruments and music stands.
A musician objected: "Madame, go sideways."
"Mine Gott, ' she said, ' I haff no zideways."
"Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are in broad agreement for the reforms they believe are necessary for the global financial system, Bloomberg reported March 31. Medvedev told reporters after a meeting with Merkel that the G-20 summit must kick off an effort to create a new global financial architecture."
MLM says:
..."Jeez Werner, sometimes I get the feeling you really don't like us...
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How come ?
Stop playing financials....there are some other great opps..heck you can play Nordstroms buy on dips strategy daily now...jwn or Nemos pick BGU morning buy/afternoon sell...VDSI-VIP etc.. look in my msgs regarding ICE 3 wks ago...SRS at low 50's sell at 60 seems to be good play lately....
Nope, I'm out for good. I hate to lose money at all. I can't deal with even being down a couple percent. I have way too much risk aversion for this market. My IRA was up 50% in December. Since then, it's been whittled away to 10% up. I had way too much success early which caused me to take bigger and bigger risks thinking I knew what I was doing. I didn't, I just got lucky. I wasn't even excited about the profits; just the fact that I wasn't losing money hand over fist like everyone else I knew. Now I'm just happy to have made a small profit instead of being down 40%.
Wisdom Speaker says:
..."Werner, I think you fail to appreciate that in the U.S., a car or appliance that has broken down and is in dire need of repair is said to be "on the fritz"...
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I am shocked ! I did not know that !
How dare you to denigrate our revered Kings by naming broken cars and appliances after them ?
Do you sugesst we now call our broken cars "Lincoln" or "Washington" ? Or what ?
I suggest we call them Dietrich & Thidrek.
The high end just has more cash reserves to fight off deflation; this too will end in an unpleasent manner.
On the New Homes chart, could you please change your color scheme? You have an orange bar next to a purple bar next to a red bar. More varied colors would make it much clearer.