“If taxpayers are footing the bill for rescuing the banks, why shouldn’t they get ownership, at least until private buyers can be found?” Krugman wrote in a column in the New York Times published today. “But the Obama administration appears to be tying itself in knots to avoid this outcome.”
If taxpayers are footing the bill for rescuing the banks, why shouldnt they get ownership, at least until private buyers can be found? Krugman wrote in a column in the New York Times published today.
I don't want ownership; I want a lien. The equivalent of DIP financing.
the financial turmoil continues to rattle world economies, layoffs so far this year have crossed the 2,77,000 -mark with a stunning 80,000 job cuts announced January 26.
Right from electronics to telecom to pharma sectors, about 9,000 jobs were lost on an average every day this month.
Among the entities, construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar, Japanese electronics major NEC and pharma giant Pfizer have announced over 20,000 job cuts each.
Dutch entities - electronics firm Philips and financial services company ING - together would be axing 13,000 jobs in the coming months.
Caterpillar, Pfizer, telecom firm Sprint Nextel Corp and home improvement retailer Home Depot together accounted for 61,000 lay-off announcements on January 26. The total job cuts announced on that day worldwide had crossed 80,000.
Pretty soon it'll be time to go bottom-fishing for a few more chips off the UK blockhouses...
@Rob Dawg: "CR, with all due respect and you deserve a lot, show me the sticky in RRE "
Had been plenty of sticky prices here in our neighborhood, except things just came unglued as the spring selling cycle kicks off. Prices that were only 10% off peak for all of last year are suddenly now 20% off peak.
Stickiness would appear to be a function of the sellers ability to withstand financial pain, which in turn depends on a combination of reserve cash, other liquifiable assets, and a sense of optimism that prices will return to normal within the seller's holding timeframe. All of those got whacked last year, even for the affluent who had withstood the early phase of the crisis...
Me : you really think the dow will drop below 10K?
Gavin : what's another 1,200 points?
Gavin : our banking system is bankrupt
Gavin : our dollar is collapsing
Gavin : credit is being revoked
Gavin : jobs are being lost
Gavin : GM will be bankrupt within 1 year
Gavin : shareholders have gutted their companies via outsourcing, flipped short term gains, and the middle class is now strained under massive debt
Gavin : we'll be lucky if this doesn't become a depression
Gavin : 100 bux says it falls under 10k
Gavin : 1 year time frame
gavinshire hathaway last summer speaking to adam shoenfeld (posted on public blog)
I want to thank gavshire and cr for being (unknown to them) my life savers. Gavshire is uncanny at calling intermediate tops.
"I don't want ownership; I want a lien. The equivalent of DIP financing."
I agree 100%.
1) There are very few enterprises that the gov't should "own." Banks aren't among them.
2)Let the taxpayer put as much money into the banks as is necessary to prevent a system-wide meltdown, then make sure that the taxpayer gets paid back ahead of everyone else.
No equity, no warrants; heck I would even go for an interest-free loan to the banks... Just so we make sure that the bankers, investors and bondholders take their lumps before the taxpayers.
show me the sticky in RRE. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 12:31 pm | #
How about the unwillingness of the lenders to finish foreclosures and clear up their inventory? sdtfs | 02.02.09 - 12:58 pm | #
No, that's not operative in this context. Your observation is very important just not germane. Sticky refers to equivalent properties resisting price declines but the C-S graphs are absolutely clear that the declines "this time" are, at best, symmetrical.
The hidden inventory issue is finally appearing. It took longer because the rapid run up in prices 2001-06 created a cushion.
Rob Dawg, if prices weren't sticky, residential real estate prices would have bottomed a year or two ago. Since they are still falling, prices are sticky.
If prices fall quickly to a new equilibrium, they are not sticky. If it take a long time (although prices still fall) they are sticky. It doesn't mean prices are stuck - they just fall slower than supply and demand suggests.
You are watching the definition of sticky prices in action (in residential real estate). This is exactly what economists mean.
Substitute taxpayers for banks. The banks you refer to now exist in name only. (...a bank without assets is like a fish without a bicycle?... )
And when the taxpayer backstop approach stops working, Bernanke will just print up the dollars to replace the losses, and we'll all lose out in the Great Inflation that follows.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes: I strongly suspect that we may shortly discover Dow 12,000 is the new Dow 36,000.
I am just waiting to see, 6000 range or 4000 range. Sub 4000 I think circumstances will force discontinuation of the Index or its eclipse as a coincidence indicator.
I am cheered by the current rail numbers. We have a pro forma real economy operating. I think it's all gonna BK in a second but at least the payments mechanism is rolling for now.
Wisdom Speaker, yes, More losses for the banks - and that means more losses for the taxpayers since we've socialized the losses (but for some weird reason still privatized the profits).
Thanks, Stanley, for advocating for the fluoridation of our drinking water, whether it was inadvertent, or not. Because of his satire, many otherwise intelligent people find the argument against fluoridation conspiratorial and ludicrous, when quite the opposite is true. It's a highly toxic and unsatable byproduct of the phosphate fertilizer industry, for Christ's Sake. Yes, the Red Scare was absurd and needed to be satirized, but the fluoridation of our drinking water should be satirized, as well. It's insane.
Makes me wonder about the nature of our current disaster. Like would it have happened at all if it had only been a matter of housing prices going through a normal correction, or if it was summoned by people who had the power to bring about disaster.
it really jsut keeps getting worse with this guy
Prior to 2001, cds and cdo market's were tiny. Look at it's explosive growth.
Also , look at volatility and variance swaps and think about the leverage involved to offset a negative var stance, then go and look at the vol reading circa 2006.
Unpluseconomic Boom writes:
Me : you really think the dow will drop below 10K?
Gavin : what's another 1,200 points?
Gavin : our banking system is bankrupt
Gavin : our dollar is collapsing
Gavin : credit is being revoked
Gavin : jobs are being lost
Gavin : GM will be bankrupt within 1 year
Gavin : shareholders have gutted their companies via outsourcing, flipped short term gains, and the middle class is now strained under massive debt
Gavin : we'll be lucky if this doesn't become a depression
Gavin : 100 bux says it falls under 10k
Gavin : 1 year time frame
gavinshire hathaway last summer speaking to adam shoenfeld (posted on public blog)
I want to thank gavshire and cr for being (unknown to them) my life savers. Gavshire is uncanny at calling intermediate tops.
You give me far too much credit. But thanks for the sentiment!!
I missed the strengthening dollar part, but I think I nailed most of the rest.
I have to be careful or I'm going to lose my anonymity here.
12 Months from now CRE is going to be a f'in blood bath.... Its only just beginning as CR points out with interest reserves... BTW those things are criminal.....
................................
OT: My ing account is now offering the follow rates: (The MM and Checking accounts yield alot more than the CDs) Orange Savings Account - Earn document.write(roundMoney(type_3000_apy))2.40% Annual Percentage Yield. Electric Orange - Earn up to document.write(roundMoney(type_4000_4_apy))2.70% APY. Orange CDs - 12-month CDs at document.write(type_3500_12M_apy)2.00% APY.
Hey, has anyone checked to see whether shorting superbowl advertisers across the board is profitable ? I seem to think ads at superbowls mark equity peaks but I haven't plotted the data.
bearly, I mentioned the ad ratio to bankruptcy correlation a couple months ago. See who is saturating the airwaves and see the next company to go BK...
And an unlikely tale of a scrappy unknown kid with grit named Rob Speyer happened to become co-CEO of major real estate firm . . . Tishman Speyer. Touching, really. Especially since he's the wunderkind who inked this albatross of a deal.
I am just waiting to see, 6000 range or 4000 range. Sub 4000 I think circumstances will force discontinuation of the Index or its eclipse as a coincidence indicator.
I've already predicted that a "7 handle" is allergic. We won't spend much here. It's been a long time since my ultimate 6800 bottom has been challenged but that's the Roubini Trap. The closer the reality gets to your predictions, the greater the urge to push the envelope.
I am cheered by the current rail numbers. We have a pro forma real economy operating. I think it's all gonna BK in a second but at least the payments mechanism is rolling for now. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 1:06 pm | #
Near total agreement. The "going forward" rail and pipe numbers have merit. The fact that we are going to flush out all the specuvestors is not my worry. We aren't going to see idle transportation capacity merely because of allocation issues. That's the saving grace of new technology.
Obama said some of the nation's banks would have to write down bad debts, while other banks may fail.
"It is likely that the banks have not fully acknowledged all the losses that they're going to experience. They're going to have to write down those losses. And some banks won't make it," he said.
While keeping up a drumbeat of dire predictions in the short term, Obama assured Americans that their bank accounts were not in danger.
"All deposits are gonna be safe for ordinary people. But we're gonna have to wring out some of these bad assets," he said.
The president demurred when asked if he planned to set up a so-called "bad bank" under which the federal government would take on the bad debts and investments of financial institutions. He suggested, however, that something like that was in the works, and that taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses.
"We're going to have to ring out some of these bad assets," he said.
He suggested, however, that something like that was in the works, and that taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses.
Rep. Barney Frank plans to call the heads of major bailed-out banks to testify before his committee next week, two aides to the House Financial Services Committee chairman said.
How bout no! You need to have the cash flow from good banks connected to you and your future and you need Uncle Sam to protect you from the toxic sludge. Banks that have no value will be wiped out and the banks that still have performing assets will have to be consolidated, by force and become good banks. It's the only way, and if we allow the current corruption to go on, we will end up with more over-leveraged bad assets with toxic future cash burn. The bank managers that are like cancer cells need to be taken out of the system ASAP and they need replaced by lower level experienced people that will work cheaper and be more accountable!!!
Nice mental image: jingle mail from the Chryler Building and the Empire State Building 'owners'.
Bailout time: any REIT can become a bank and the Fed will take their loser loans.
The good ship Bailout is going to look like a cargo container ship from asia to the US: 5 stories of containers above the water line, and no ballast below.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
What others have said about CRBot: Gary writes: This CRbot is pretty nifty. EvilHenryPaulson writes: CRBot is great on mobiles Loudocracy writes:
Thank god CRbot spared me from that dead thread. Hoopajoops writes: Posting a test message from the IRC Channel... THIS THING ROCKS
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
Tin Free, that ailment isn't anything new. I recall a recent story about a 10-year-old girl who never advanced in size or mental capacity from a toddler.
CR..They are falling SLOWER because the banksters will not let inventory be purged. These foreclosures take a long time to work through the system and they do not have to sell at the Courthouse steps if the price is below what the bank wants. So, the bank gets stuck trying to offer it down the road...with the same result. The price falls are increasing in velocity and may reach terminal velocity this year, after the job loss "effect" hits the market. Look for them to make a splash landing next winter. Best regards and keep up the good work!....Money Ma
You don't see folks hanging around the old oak tree, but with every quarterly report from UBS the probability increases for the Swiss re-enacting the death of Marcus Crassus [the emperor within an empire, one of the richest men in history, the ultimate landlord, had one of the first firefighting crews who would buy your house for a pittance or let it continue burning... Crassus led a foolish military campaign of 40,000 legionnaires, opponents led him aimlessly in the desert, 10,000 Parthian cavalry who only were supposed to delay him ended up defeating him with thousands of parting shots (the origin of the phrase), upon capturing Crassus they killed him by pouring molten gold down his throat. It was this defeat that was the first time a Roman eagle standard was captured]
mal writes:
Tin Free, that ailment isn't anything new. I recall a recent story about a 10-year-old girl who never advanced in size or mental capacity from a toddler.
and then there is the benjamen button syndrome to worry about too!
"...taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses."
Which those does he mean? The "those" that are belly-up except for TARP? Somehow I don't think that those banks are going to make it out alive. Buying equity now is just throwing good money after bad.
How about arranging for new banks to be chartered instead? I don't really want equity at all, but if the taxpayer has to buy common/preferred stock, let's buy IPO shares of new institutions that can start fresh with clean balance sheets.
Especially since, from what I understand, the real money in banking is from fees. Hire away some of the bankers that were able to generate fees without blowing up the system (if such bankers exist), and let the taxpayer be rewarded for jump-starting new, successful firms.
Otherwise, the taxpayers are really just going to be buying shares in a pump-and-dump scheme.
Hey, has anyone checked to see whether shorting superbowl advertisers across the board is profitable ? I seem to think ads at superbowls mark equity peaks but I haven't plotted the data.
bearly | 02.02.09 - 1:15 pm | #
Yeah, I was thinking maybe it's time to short Gold4Cash....
Citizen Scotto
NBC had a tough time selling the spots. They didn't want to lower the price, until late. By then no one cared and so they sold ads for cheap (like to gold4cash.com), no one really knows but something less than the reduced quote, and they ate a lot of ads.
Here's a thought I had: when was the last time nuclear weapons were used on a city (Nagasaki, 1945)? If your answer was the last Kondratieff winter, you're correct! Anyone see the connection?
"Just to be clear, your reason #2 is why I'm opposed to mere equity stakes, not reason #1."
No problem. I probably should have made it clear that after I gave your comment the "100%" the rest of my post represented my own thoughts on the matter.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...In other news, a protester threw a shoe at the Chinese Premier.
...http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_ne...ics/ 7865868.stm
Yes, and as you see, the apes at BBC have removed the picture. They only left the subtitle of the picture : ~~The moment a protester throws a shoe at the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, at Cambridge University~~
umero uno?
The good news for CRE is prices aren't sticky like for residential real estate.
CR, with all due respect and you deserve a lot, show me the sticky in RRE.
numero uno?
gas | 02.02.09 - 12:31 pm | #
No, nemo eruno.
halo
Only 26%! It'd priced in.
Financial engineering can solve this problem... in 2012.
bank bubble bust
did crbot go bye bye over the weekend?
There is no bad news, only news.
The biggest drawback to UK real estate is that it is in the UK.
Ummm...you mean more losses for the Bad Bank. They will have their Bad Bank, too, before long.
I can make haloscan a great deal on the Tower Bridge!
OT: Krugman thinks the banks should be Nationlized
Obama Should Nationalize U.S. Banks, Krugman Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
“If taxpayers are footing the bill for rescuing the banks, why shouldn’t they get ownership, at least until private buyers can be found?” Krugman wrote in a column in the New York Times published today. “But the Obama administration appears to be tying itself in knots to avoid this outcome.”
Krugman's been reading Conjure's to-do list.
If taxpayers are footing the bill for rescuing the banks, why shouldnt they get ownership, at least until private buyers can be found? Krugman wrote in a column in the New York Times published today.
I don't want ownership; I want a lien. The equivalent of DIP financing.
I think Krugman should be Nationalized.
I don't want ownership; I want a lien.
Yalt | 02.02.09 - 12:48 pm | #
I want Justice.
Worse :
U.K. Dental buildings and fluoridation plants remain at historic lows.
I blame Big Toothpaste !
(you see, they have bad teeth over there!)
"And to answer your question, yes we have french fries. But over here, we call them chips."
8000 is the new 12000.
Obama bailout will tank.
Just my 2 rubles worth.
Yours In Socialism,
Kilgore Trout
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
8000 is the new 12000.
Amazingly this is true.
I want Justice.
Morocco Bama | 02.02.09 - 12:50 pm | #
Yah, you'll get a couple of show trials to distract you. Pickpocket's accomplice.
8000 is the new 12000.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 12:53 pm | #
I strongly suspect that we may shortly discover Dow 12,000 is the new Dow 36,000.
Ever heard of fluoridation, Mandrake?
Yah, you'll get a couple of show trials to distract you. Pickpocket's accomplice.
Yalt | 02.02.09 - 12:55 pm | #
Yeah, I know I won't get it, but that doesn't preclude me from wanting it.
show me the sticky in RRE.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 12:31 pm | #
How about the unwillingness of the lenders to finish foreclosures and clear up their inventory?
Last year HSBC made a £250m ($355m) profit when it bought back its London headquarters from a Spanish property company.
It had sold its Canary Wharf tower to Metrovacesa for £1.1bn in April 2007, at the peak of Britain's property boom, in a sale-and-leaseback deal.
It then bought it back for about £838m in November 2008, representing a 24% fall in its value over the 18 months.
Ah, the modern economy. A beautiful thing, eh?
"Just more losses for the banks ..."
Wrong answer!
the financial turmoil continues to rattle world economies, layoffs so far this year have crossed the 2,77,000 -mark with a stunning 80,000 job cuts announced January 26.
Right from electronics to telecom to pharma sectors, about 9,000 jobs were lost on an average every day this month.
Among the entities, construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar, Japanese electronics major NEC and pharma giant Pfizer have announced over 20,000 job cuts each.
Dutch entities - electronics firm Philips and financial services company ING - together would be axing 13,000 jobs in the coming months.
Caterpillar, Pfizer, telecom firm Sprint Nextel Corp and home improvement retailer Home Depot together accounted for 61,000 lay-off announcements on January 26. The total job cuts announced on that day worldwide had crossed 80,000.
Pretty soon it'll be time to go bottom-fishing for a few more chips off the UK blockhouses...
@Rob Dawg: "CR, with all due respect and you deserve a lot, show me the sticky in RRE "
Had been plenty of sticky prices here in our neighborhood, except things just came unglued as the spring selling cycle kicks off. Prices that were only 10% off peak for all of last year are suddenly now 20% off peak.
Stickiness would appear to be a function of the sellers ability to withstand financial pain, which in turn depends on a combination of reserve cash, other liquifiable assets, and a sense of optimism that prices will return to normal within the seller's holding timeframe. All of those got whacked last year, even for the affluent who had withstood the early phase of the crisis...
Me : you really think the dow will drop below 10K?
Gavin : what's another 1,200 points?
Gavin : our banking system is bankrupt
Gavin : our dollar is collapsing
Gavin : credit is being revoked
Gavin : jobs are being lost
Gavin : GM will be bankrupt within 1 year
Gavin : shareholders have gutted their companies via outsourcing, flipped short term gains, and the middle class is now strained under massive debt
Gavin : we'll be lucky if this doesn't become a depression
Gavin : 100 bux says it falls under 10k
Gavin : 1 year time frame
gavinshire hathaway last summer speaking to adam shoenfeld (posted on public blog)
I want to thank gavshire and cr for being (unknown to them) my life savers. Gavshire is uncanny at calling intermediate tops.
Hey chrysler employee...if ya beat it, we'll give you a car.
"I don't want ownership; I want a lien. The equivalent of DIP financing."
I agree 100%.
1) There are very few enterprises that the gov't should "own." Banks aren't among them.
2)Let the taxpayer put as much money into the banks as is necessary to prevent a system-wide meltdown, then make sure that the taxpayer gets paid back ahead of everyone else.
No equity, no warrants; heck I would even go for an interest-free loan to the banks... Just so we make sure that the bankers, investors and bondholders take their lumps before the taxpayers.
What if 8,000 is the new 14,000?
show me the sticky in RRE.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 12:31 pm | #
How about the unwillingness of the lenders to finish foreclosures and clear up their inventory?
sdtfs | 02.02.09 - 12:58 pm | #
No, that's not operative in this context. Your observation is very important just not germane. Sticky refers to equivalent properties resisting price declines but the C-S graphs are absolutely clear that the declines "this time" are, at best, symmetrical.
The hidden inventory issue is finally appearing. It took longer because the rapid run up in prices 2001-06 created a cushion.
Rob Dawg, if prices weren't sticky, residential real estate prices would have bottomed a year or two ago. Since they are still falling, prices are sticky.
If prices fall quickly to a new equilibrium, they are not sticky. If it take a long time (although prices still fall) they are sticky. It doesn't mean prices are stuck - they just fall slower than supply and demand suggests.
You are watching the definition of sticky prices in action (in residential real estate). This is exactly what economists mean.
best wishes.
@"Just more losses for the banks ..."
Substitute taxpayers for banks. The banks you refer to now exist in name only. (...a bank without assets is like a fish without a bicycle?... )
And when the taxpayer backstop approach stops working, Bernanke will just print up the dollars to replace the losses, and we'll all lose out in the Great Inflation that follows.
the goddamn Germans got nothing to do with it!
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
I strongly suspect that we may shortly discover Dow 12,000 is the new Dow 36,000.
I am just waiting to see, 6000 range or 4000 range. Sub 4000 I think circumstances will force discontinuation of the Index or its eclipse as a coincidence indicator.
I am cheered by the current rail numbers. We have a pro forma real economy operating. I think it's all gonna BK in a second but at least the payments mechanism is rolling for now.
CR - couldn't agree more
more bad news - it seems bad banks are also sticky.
Wisdom Speaker, yes, More losses for the banks - and that means more losses for the taxpayers since we've socialized the losses (but for some weird reason still privatized the profits).
best wishes.
Gear!
Thanks, Stanley, for advocating for the fluoridation of our drinking water, whether it was inadvertent, or not. Because of his satire, many otherwise intelligent people find the argument against fluoridation conspiratorial and ludicrous, when quite the opposite is true. It's a highly toxic and unsatable byproduct of the phosphate fertilizer industry, for Christ's Sake. Yes, the Red Scare was absurd and needed to be satirized, but the fluoridation of our drinking water should be satirized, as well. It's insane.
StopFluoridation
Glod!
Treasure Hunters Say They've Found a 1744 Shipwreck - NY Times
The TARP is sticky....like Honey.
Morocco Bama(Excellent) writes:
Thanks, Stanley, for advocating for the fluoridation of our drinking water, whether it was inadvertent, or not.
Hobby Horses | Laurel Designs
Not a chartist but looks like the Dow just formed a double top, retest lows now?
Makes me wonder about the nature of our current disaster. Like would it have happened at all if it had only been a matter of housing prices going through a normal correction, or if it was summoned by people who had the power to bring about disaster.
it really jsut keeps getting worse with this guy
Prior to 2001, cds and cdo market's were tiny. Look at it's explosive growth.
Also , look at volatility and variance swaps and think about the leverage involved to offset a negative var stance, then go and look at the vol reading circa 2006.
Then please, wtfu
Our little girl has grown up to be a daytrader!
Nemo writes:
Ever heard of fluoridation, Mandrake?
Nemo | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Purity
e
a
c
e
Of
n
Essence
a
r
t
h
holoscan is getting quirky!
Wowza.
Unpluseconomic Boom writes:
Me : you really think the dow will drop below 10K?
Gavin : what's another 1,200 points?
Gavin : our banking system is bankrupt
Gavin : our dollar is collapsing
Gavin : credit is being revoked
Gavin : jobs are being lost
Gavin : GM will be bankrupt within 1 year
Gavin : shareholders have gutted their companies via outsourcing, flipped short term gains, and the middle class is now strained under massive debt
Gavin : we'll be lucky if this doesn't become a depression
Gavin : 100 bux says it falls under 10k
Gavin : 1 year time frame
gavinshire hathaway last summer speaking to adam shoenfeld (posted on public blog)
I want to thank gavshire and cr for being (unknown to them) my life savers. Gavshire is uncanny at calling intermediate tops.
You give me far too much credit. But thanks for the sentiment!!
I missed the strengthening dollar part, but I think I nailed most of the rest.
I have to be careful or I'm going to lose my anonymity here.
Ha CBR, I used to trade on and off but I was more of a swing trader. I played IPOs on the V pattern that usually formed during the Quiet Period
12 Months from now CRE is going to be a f'in blood bath.... Its only just beginning as CR points out with interest reserves... BTW those things are criminal.....
................................
OT: My ing account is now offering the follow rates: (The MM and Checking accounts yield alot more than the CDs)
Orange Savings Account - Earn document.write(roundMoney(type_3000_apy))2.40% Annual Percentage Yield. Electric Orange - Earn up to document.write(roundMoney(type_4000_4_apy))2.70% APY. Orange CDs - 12-month CDs at document.write(type_3500_12M_apy)2.00% APY.
another record!
Hey, has anyone checked to see whether shorting superbowl advertisers across the board is profitable ? I seem to think ads at superbowls mark equity peaks but I haven't plotted the data.
bearly, I mentioned the ad ratio to bankruptcy correlation a couple months ago. See who is saturating the airwaves and see the next company to go BK...
I'm going to lose my anonymity here.
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.02.09 - 1:13 pm | #
You mean you're name is not Gavshire?
A Chronicle of the Stuy-town folly:
How the Bottom Fell Out of the Speyers' New Vision for Stuyvesant Town -- New York Magazine
And an unlikely tale of a scrappy unknown kid with grit named Rob Speyer happened to become co-CEO of major real estate firm . . . Tishman Speyer. Touching, really. Especially since he's the wunderkind who inked this albatross of a deal.
oops sorry, gavshire . Just be careful "the company" doesn't come after you to tell them when to buy puts LOL!!!!
I am just waiting to see, 6000 range or 4000 range. Sub 4000 I think circumstances will force discontinuation of the Index or its eclipse as a coincidence indicator.
I've already predicted that a "7 handle" is allergic. We won't spend much here. It's been a long time since my ultimate 6800 bottom has been challenged but that's the Roubini Trap. The closer the reality gets to your predictions, the greater the urge to push the envelope.
I am cheered by the current rail numbers. We have a pro forma real economy operating. I think it's all gonna BK in a second but at least the payments mechanism is rolling for now.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 1:06 pm | #
Near total agreement. The "going forward" rail and pipe numbers have merit. The fact that we are going to flush out all the specuvestors is not my worry. We aren't going to see idle transportation capacity merely because of allocation issues. That's the saving grace of new technology.
A Chronicle of the Stuy-town folly
Gary | 02.02.09 - 1:19 pm | #
This thing will go down as more of a bone head move than the empire state building... Then again they bought Archstone too! LOL ! ! !
...............
Macy's to Cut 7,000 Jobs, Slash Dividend to 5 Cents a Share from 13.5 Cents a Share
Dividend just temporary...
Dividend just temporary...
LAM | 02.02.09 - 1:23 pm | #
I bet it is... I bet it is....
Unpluseconomic Boom writes:
oops sorry, gavshire . Just be careful "the company" doesn't come after you to tell them when to buy puts LOL!!!!
Unpluseconomic Boom | 02.02.09 - 1:20 pm | #
Ok I think I know who you are now:)
Obama said some of the nation's banks would have to write down bad debts, while other banks may fail.
"It is likely that the banks have not fully acknowledged all the losses that they're going to experience. They're going to have to write down those losses. And some banks won't make it," he said.
While keeping up a drumbeat of dire predictions in the short term, Obama assured Americans that their bank accounts were not in danger.
"All deposits are gonna be safe for ordinary people. But we're gonna have to wring out some of these bad assets," he said.
The president demurred when asked if he planned to set up a so-called "bad bank" under which the federal government would take on the bad debts and investments of financial institutions. He suggested, however, that something like that was in the works, and that taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses.
"We're going to have to ring out some of these bad assets," he said.
In other news, a protester threw a shoe at the Chinese Premier.
BBC NEWS | UK | UK Politics | Shoe hurled as Chinese PM speaks
Macy's is cutting 7000 jobs now.
I guess that's to be expected.
He suggested, however, that something like that was in the works, and that taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses.
Nationalize The Banks Today! | 02.02.09 - 1:26 pm | #
Can I pass or choose stock in something else? Lord knows I dont want this cess in my 401K account!
..................
Doctors don't know why my baby daughter isn't getting any bigger - mirror.co.uk
children of men. it's begu
Rep. Barney Frank plans to call the heads of major bailed-out banks to testify before his committee next week, two aides to the House Financial Services Committee chairman said.
Bailed Out Bankers To Be Hauled Before Congress
And the Obama plan on banks won't be announced until maybe next week or later.
Accident? Or plan?
joe shmoe, it's a plan. I still say they'll nationalize.
Re: Can I pass or choose stock in something else?
How bout no! You need to have the cash flow from good banks connected to you and your future and you need Uncle Sam to protect you from the toxic sludge. Banks that have no value will be wiped out and the banks that still have performing assets will have to be consolidated, by force and become good banks. It's the only way, and if we allow the current corruption to go on, we will end up with more over-leveraged bad assets with toxic future cash burn. The bank managers that are like cancer cells need to be taken out of the system ASAP and they need replaced by lower level experienced people that will work cheaper and be more accountable!!!
Accident? Or plan?
yes, we saw how tough Congress was with the Detroit hearings and subsequent bailout.
Nice mental image: jingle mail from the Chryler Building and the Empire State Building 'owners'.
Bailout time: any REIT can become a bank and the Fed will take their loser loans.
The good ship Bailout is going to look like a cargo container ship from asia to the US: 5 stories of containers above the water line, and no ballast below.
Anonymous | \t \t \t \t02.02.09 - 1:37 pm | #
I agree but lets be honest, we're providing them debt but getting the equity put... It sucks, I want to be a bond holder....
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New Thread: Macy's Cut 7,000 Jobs, Reduces Capital Spending Plans Again ( 4 comments )
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Tin Free, that ailment isn't anything new. I recall a recent story about a 10-year-old girl who never advanced in size or mental capacity from a toddler.
But the Obama administration appears to be tying itself in knots to avoid this outcome.
They'd then prove the conservatives correct that Obama is a socialist islamist commie.
Can't have that.
Macy's will try to TARP. No supporting data. Just a prediction.
CR..They are falling SLOWER because the banksters will not let inventory be purged. These foreclosures take a long time to work through the system and they do not have to sell at the Courthouse steps if the price is below what the bank wants. So, the bank gets stuck trying to offer it down the road...with the same result. The price falls are increasing in velocity and may reach terminal velocity this year, after the job loss "effect" hits the market. Look for them to make a splash landing next winter. Best regards and keep up the good work!....Money Ma
CRBot: Killing dead threads deader since last week.
CRbot | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 1:41 pm | #
I think it should say "Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff...."
Just sayin'......
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Counterpointer
You don't see folks hanging around the old oak tree, but with every quarterly report from UBS the probability increases for the Swiss re-enacting the death of Marcus Crassus [the emperor within an empire, one of the richest men in history, the ultimate landlord, had one of the first firefighting crews who would buy your house for a pittance or let it continue burning... Crassus led a foolish military campaign of 40,000 legionnaires, opponents led him aimlessly in the desert, 10,000 Parthian cavalry who only were supposed to delay him ended up defeating him with thousands of parting shots (the origin of the phrase), upon capturing Crassus they killed him by pouring molten gold down his throat. It was this defeat that was the first time a Roman eagle standard was captured]
mal writes:
Tin Free, that ailment isn't anything new. I recall a recent story about a 10-year-old girl who never advanced in size or mental capacity from a toddler.
and then there is the benjamen button syndrome to worry about too!
by the bye, UBS reports on Feb 10
Comrade K,
Don't think you were on the thread Saturday but both joe shmoe and I believe it's going to be nationalization, and no "bad bank" bullshit.
joe, if I've misrepresented your views, set the record straight.
EHP, does that mean Phil will have to find a new job?
"...taxpayers would become owners of stock in those banks and investment houses."
Which those does he mean? The "those" that are belly-up except for TARP? Somehow I don't think that those banks are going to make it out alive. Buying equity now is just throwing good money after bad.
How about arranging for new banks to be chartered instead? I don't really want equity at all, but if the taxpayer has to buy common/preferred stock, let's buy IPO shares of new institutions that can start fresh with clean balance sheets.
Especially since, from what I understand, the real money in banking is from fees. Hire away some of the bankers that were able to generate fees without blowing up the system (if such bankers exist), and let the taxpayer be rewarded for jump-starting new, successful firms.
Otherwise, the taxpayers are really just going to be buying shares in a pump-and-dump scheme.
Hey, has anyone checked to see whether shorting superbowl advertisers across the board is profitable ? I seem to think ads at superbowls mark equity peaks but I haven't plotted the data.
bearly | 02.02.09 - 1:15 pm | #
Yeah, I was thinking maybe it's time to short Gold4Cash....
Hey, has anyone checked to see whether shorting superbowl advertisers across the board is profitable ?
judging by the amount of their own advertising time that NBC appeared to be stuck with, looks like demand for ad airtime during the SB was down.
j marston | 02.02.09 - 1:03 pm | #
Just to be clear, your reason #2 is why I'm opposed to mere equity stakes, not reason #1.
Citizen Scotto
NBC had a tough time selling the spots. They didn't want to lower the price, until late. By then no one cared and so they sold ads for cheap (like to gold4cash.com), no one really knows but something less than the reduced quote, and they ate a lot of ads.
Beer still made a turnout
@EHP, thanks for the SB advert info, was expecting to see shamwow and mighty putty after seeing gold4cash LOL
Here's a thought I had: when was the last time nuclear weapons were used on a city (Nagasaki, 1945)? If your answer was the last Kondratieff winter, you're correct! Anyone see the connection?
Citizen Scotto writes:
@EHP, thanks for the SB advert info, was expecting to see shamwow and mighty putty after seeing gold4cash LOL
next superbowl we'll see the "your gonna love my nuts" guy... if their is another superbowl...muahahahaha!
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"Just to be clear, your reason #2 is why I'm opposed to mere equity stakes, not reason #1."
No problem. I probably should have made it clear that after I gave your comment the "100%" the rest of my post represented my own thoughts on the matter.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...In other news, a protester threw a shoe at the Chinese Premier.
...http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_ne...ics/ 7865868.stm
Yes, and as you see, the apes at BBC have removed the picture. They only left the subtitle of the picture : ~~The moment a protester throws a shoe at the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, at Cambridge University~~
See how manipulative these journal-apes are.