Q4: Office, Mall and Lodging Investment
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 02/02/2009 - 11:38am (50 comments)
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So is there some sort of looming issue with CRE?
But...but...there's an uptick in dem graphs!
So when do you think hotel rates will bottom?
I would like to take some vaction without spending upwards of $100 a night in a flyover state.
1st ?
Nice cliffs setting up there...
oooh oooh oooh
Nemo?
Wow...nice sunny optimism out there.
I'm thinking this means we've hit the bottom? JK!
I guess we won't be getting any economic growth out of this sector for a while...
lodging: no inwestment for you
What evidence suggests lodging will decline? I see the number of dispossessed wanderers/migrants increasing substantially, so the demand for cheap motels will be on the rise.
From the nature of some of the 4 story sticks and stucco joints, it's a land appreciation gambit that also hopefully throws off cash.
Hopefully when they all go TU rooms on the road will start being reasonable again.
$79.99 to get pinkeye? I'll pass.
I got an email the other day from the MGM Grand. We had stayed there in October for $92 a night, room now offered for "the rest of 2009" as low as $59 a night.
CR - "This graph shows investment in lodging (based on data from the BEA) as a percent of GDP. The recent boom in lodging investment has been stunning"
Well, lets not forget the model changed in mid-stream. Developing lodging became a blend of lodging and condo development. And the figures at hand do not sperate the two, unless I am mistaken.
"The new development business is dead for a decade. Maybe its eight years. Maybe its not completely dead. Maybe Im over-dramatizing it for effect."
Later he said: "Maybe I need to go home. You see I am not feeling good. My entire life is over. Maybe I'm over-dramatizing for effect. Then again, I think not."
3PM short covering has commenced
calling all shorts
That was a pathetic bounce... down we go.
I just hope Paris Hilton is diversified.
What a crook....
.............
U.S. Senate Banking Committee
Chairman Christopher Dodd 
said he and his wife will refinance two mortgages with Countrywide Financial Corp. in response to criticism that he got preferential terms. âWe will refinance our homes and, in an abundance of caution, we will be seeking a third party to negotiate the new loan terms on our behalf," Dodd said today at a news conference in Hartford, Connecticut.
the 400 point swings were a lot of fun, gonna miss old bushy
I just hope Paris Hilton is diversified.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 3:22 pm | #
Yes, she is an equal opportunity.... oh nevermind.
elmer fudd writes:
the 400 point swings were a lot of fun, gonna miss old bushy
Down at these levels, 200 is the new 400
As part of my commute (central va) I pass a Hampton Inn being built. I first mentionned this about 5 or 6 months ago (they had a lot of problem with the site - think of a rock quarry) and how the sign said "open spring of 2008". Well they are STILL working on placing the storm drain. No way does it open sooner than 12 mos (if they don't throw in the towel sooner) despite the sign being updated to "open spring of 2009".
The cash burn rate has to be astounding if they are that far behind schedule.
When it comes to moral hazard, were Number One. We helped trigger the biggest financial and economic collapse in history through our imprudent lending and investment"
An open letter to the Western banking establishment - The price of everything
Peak spanktravision?
Gasparino is on cspan, he says the economy is in the tank because of the federal government, fannie and freddie. He says we're demonizing Wall St. He says we have to get back to using the capitalist system. He says condoms are fun, and consumers do drive the economy, but you can only mow the whitehouse lawn so many times. Stimulus is important, but more important is giving more money to banks. He's very funny.
Timmay! bang hank's bazooka on the buy butto
we will be seeking a third party to negotiate the new loan terms on our behalf
nades | Homepage | 02.02.09 - 3:23 pm | #
How about the justice department?
McConnell Proposes Cheap, Government-Backed Mortgages to Stimulate Economy
Haven't we had cheap, government-backed mortgages for decades, from FHA and GNMA and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? How did all that work out?
Peak coin operated vibrating massage beds?
These people didn't stay at a Holiday Inn did they?
Timmmaayyyyy!
That rally monkey impostor seems to be on to something.
No problem in LA. It's different here. :-/
"Next Stop: Downtowns New Boutique Hotel?"
eastside living LA » Blog Archive » Next Stop: Downtown’s New Boutique Hotel?
thanks
Time to invest in PEOPLE, not buildings!
Also time to invent some new wealth-producing industries where things of value are actually, you know, manufactured (and could be sold abroad as well as at home).
You mean this has happened before?
http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf
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"Also time to invent some new wealth-producing industries where things of value are actually, you know, manufactured (and could be sold abroad as well as at home)."JimPortlandOR
you dreamer, you
I forgot to give the link to Organizing America where you can find meetings in your town where people will discuss the economy and the stimulus package. Shut off your tv and go talk to your neighbors. We have to stop the corporations and our best opportunity is now.
Organizing for America | BarackObama.com | Host an Economic Recovery House Meeting
or
Organizing for America | BarackObama.com | Host an Economic Recovery House Meeting
(Oh god, on cspan gasparino just said that he understands the alabama caller's anger regarding executive pay, but america should suck it up a little bit, populist views only go so far. He said he loves that he's a Wall St. apologist. )
Hahaha. Anybody doesn't think the equity markets aren't being manipulated? Today is just the latest example.
Gavshire, yeah, it takes two hours to go down and a half hour to return to it's previous high for the day...go figure.
On the first graph, it looks like the back data is "estimated?" Am I reading that right?
auto sales out tuesday afternoon. Don't get doped with this light volume actio
black dog writes:
As part of my commute (central va)
Hmm...whereabouts? I'm in C'ville/Nelso
"Also time to invent some new wealth-producing industries where things of value are actually, you know, manufactured (and could be sold abroad as well as at home)."JimPortlandOR
Are you willing to produce these items for the price consumers abroad are willing to pay?
I doubt it.
CR,
Seattle has a bunch of condo/hotel hybrids coming online soon (e.g. The page cannot be found. Any idea how these are accounted for (lodging? residential? a mix?)
Cramer on FL Real Estate
funny stuff
CR, what's Brad Setser's take on this issue? I am just curious. LOL
Well, living in an tourist area known for casual corruption in evading growth restrictions, I always thought it was strange most of the recent hotels were suites with kitchen, 2 bedrooms, etc. These guys knew the crunch was coming and will turn all of these into condos after whining about bankruptcy, empty buildings, loss of tax base, whatever.