More on the Inland Empire Bust

Where's my "Jim the Realtor" video?

Looky, another red light blinking, how cute.

CR, could you tell us soemthing about the other areas of the country that are facing similar busts? We talk about the Inland Empire a lot. Not complaining, just would liek to hear about employment elsewhere, too...

Or, rather, "housing and retail" (but employment, too!)

Nemo is cheating, using somekind of cool article detection program and thousand or two pre-written comments to be the first. Bad Nemo!

Man, the Inland Empire coffin is getting nailed shut a bit tighter every day. Disappearing local jobs should do a lot to put the bottom in on housing.

Any guesses on how long until the area between San Berdoo to Palm Springs becomes desert again?

Inland empire?  Pshaw.  Here in Alexandria, my condo has gone from zillowing at 500K to 377K.  (Next stop, room temp for you kelvin-heads.)
Do you know how many times I got told the change in administrations was going to drive housing thru the roof?

Fast-forward 15 years, and these long vacant wearhouses will be rebranded the New Luxury Lofts, priced at the mid-to-high unaffordables.

--bh

Wait, you mean that as imports go cliff-diving there's less need for big warehouses full of inferior crap?

supafly73 --

Nemo is cheating, using somekind of cool article detection program and thousand or two pre-written comments to be the first.

Correct except for the pre-written comments part. (Although my comments may seem pre-written since I only have 3-5 seconds to come up with them.)

Maybe it would help their image some if they didn't use such a grandiose and fantastically arrogant name like "Inland EMPIRE".

The Inland Empire is breaking up so fast we should change the name to the Holy Inland Empire.

Our area is immune to all that.
Morro Bay

As commercial real estate collapse so will the Life Insurance Companies.
If you have cash value in a life policy, GET IT OUT NOW!!

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate debt defaults may cost U.S. life insurers “substantially” more than losses on securities linked to subprime, Alt-A and commercial mortgages, said Eric Berg, an analyst at Barclays Plc.

Insurers’ Corporate-Bond Losses May Exceed Subprime (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

As commercial real estate collapse so will the Life Insurance Companies.
If you have cash value in a life policy, GET IT OUT NOW!!

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate debt defaults may cost U.S. life insurers “substantially” more than losses on securities linked to subprime, Alt-A and commercial mortgages, said Eric Berg, an analyst at Barclays Plc.

Insurers’ Corporate-Bond Losses May Exceed Subprime (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

Whoa, Frazier, pal, wait for the fight to start.

Fast-forward 15 years, and these long vacant wearhouses will be rebranded the New Luxury Lofts, priced at the mid-to-high unaffordables.

--bh

They're so full of character!

I bet the air-cargo traffic thru Ontario is in the dirt. The giant concrete shipping hubs surrounding it are all empty. Maybe it'll clean up the air some....less flights in and out.

The Empire Strikes Back.

Are we off the lows yet ?

Our area is immune to all that.
Morro Bay
Newman (Hello Jerry.....)

At least it's beautiful there. Inland Emp? not so much

As kids (in the 60s) we used to go to the IE for the smog. Smoggiest place in SoCal. No wonder I got emphysema......where's my attorney.....

There are empty warehouses in the inland empire?

Nostrovia,

So if the empty malls are to become Paintball battlefields, how are we going to repurpose these massive joints? Guess they could be used to store all the piling up unsold autos, yes?

locust's suggestion for a stimulus plan - unbuild and clear the land then sell the used building materials off for scrap.

shocked that the bad bank thingy wasn't trotted out last night or before market opened. First time they have not actively defended 8k for quite some time.

Out of bullets....

Ciao
MS

We need to import more stuff so that we can put those warehouse workers back to work. Hopefully the Economic Simulation bill covers that.

BNostrovia,

Lets hope it's just paintball battlefields. We're all Inland Empire you just don't know it yet
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues

MS,

There is a difference between being out of bullets and out of guns. They are now out of guns, but have bullets everywhere.

--bh

Where's my "Jim the Realtor" video?
\t
Nemo | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 9:42 am | #

Jim is still recovering from his blowout rockin' 50th bday par-tah. 

The Inland Empire is doomed.  That's not hyperbole.  The IE lacks the critical mass of a diverse productive economy to survive in its current form.  It was the incredible flow of money to finance the RRE and CRE cycle that was the source of money and everything else was multiplier effects.  The donut shops and truck dealerships existed only to feed and move construction workers to their jobs on roads past schools full of ttheir kids funded by property taxes and builders fees.  The IE economy is broken in so mnay places it'll be a decade before any semblence of a functional economy will be possible. 

HOG puking out 600m in unsecured notes.....oh I'd buy that.....

for a dollar.

Ciao
MS

Rob Dawg you are correct.
jo6pac

We need to import more stuff so that we can put those warehouse workers back to work. Hopefully the Economic Simulation bill covers that.

BNostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope

Perhaps storage for the STD prevention campaign that evidently is part of the plan. You know, condom and pamphlet storage.

Can Countries Really Go Bankrupt?
Iceland on the Thames: Can Countries Really Go Bankrupt? - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

"There's a rumor going around that states cannot go bankrupt," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said recently at a private bank event in Frankfurt. "This rumor is not true."

Rob Dawg,

I see your decade and raise you two decades.

A pleasure as always when you're at the table.

--bh

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Corporate debt defaults may cost U.S. life insurers “substantially" more than losses on securities linked to subprime, Alt-A and commercial mortgages, said Eric Berg, an analyst at Barclays Plc.
Johnny Mustardseed | 02.03.09 - 9:52 am | #

Wow, wasn't Rich warning about this months ago?

"The donut shops and truck dealerships existed only to feed and move construction workers to their jobs on roads past schools full of ttheir kids funded by property taxes and builders fees."

The SBUX in East Temecula opens at 4:00am to facilitate all those workers who will be losing jobs now and will no longer have to commute.

Ciao
MS

Fed extending programs...

There is nothing more permanent than temporary government programs.

s0mebody writes:
Fed extending programs...

There is nothing more permanent than temporary government programs.

Or, there is nothing more temporary than government.

--bh

MS,

"
The SBUX in East Temecula opens at 4:00am to facilitate all those workers who will be losing jobs now and will no longer have to commute."

Construction workers at early opening Starbucks?!?

Sacre Bleu! Now they'll have to hang outside 7-11 to find day work...Horrors!

Nostrovia,

somebody-

The actual repo's have stopped...not one done this year at all yet. They just made them permanent with yet another amalgamation of letter's.

At least the permanent 'temporary' programs have stopped.....it was a farce really anyway as there's nothing temporary about throwing $20-40b at the market each and every day.

Ciao
MS

MS,

Thanks for the repo insight. I try to keep an eye on everything, but always miss something.

misean-

I looked at props. out there in '02-03 and they were overpriced (IMO) then. Something struck me as odd when I saw that (SBUX).....I saw it just the other day when I stopped on my way to Palm Springs...still opened at 4:00am.

Ciao
MS

MS--

HOG up 8% early on the news of the unsecured debt offering. Market pleased that some other greater fool/bagholder will step up to throw money down the HOG finance arm black hole.

MS,

I read Denninger's piece on the Fed intentionally draining liquidity last year to scare people into treasuries so that the gov't could float all the new issues at a decent rate. Is this the correct view in your opinion?

BTW, the HOG notes will be priced to yield 15%. What kind of interest rates will they offer to new motorcycle buyers?? I can't believe they will possibly cover the coupon payments on this from future lending.

MS,

Well, speaking of Palm Springs...Egad! There half of December...lot's of Bando space.

Sort of a concentrated Las Vegas out there.

Nostrovia,

MS, please don't tell me you live in temecula. i've got you pictured hilltop off elfin firest road.

Blazes Boylan

volume, make it up in volume

somebody-

sounds likely....I did see the reverse repo's however they were not much (in the grand scope) but the timing of them sure makes you wonder. Right on the cusp of the TARP congress vote....

IMO anyone buying long term notes is going to regret it.

Ciao
MS

HOG is dead company walking.  They've built enough in the last ten years to meet true market demand for the next 20.  The nation is awash with low mileage garage queens.  When the economy goes south the Harley goes first.  Check any metro craigslistings for motorcycles. 

db-

no I don't live in temecula....BTW Elfin is by Lake Hodges...about 15 miles south of Tem.

North County Inland....

Ciao
MS

IMO anyone buying long term notes is going to regret it.
MS | 02.03.09 - 10:21 am | #

That's not opinion that's a stone cold certainty. 

re Hog: someone bought $4b of what they call "loans" as late as October of last year.

Still quite a few suckers out there.

BTW HOG is not going to lend this money out to buy bikes...how could they at what they have to pay?.....This is C waiting to happen

Ciao
MS

that why they call it an opinion dawg...Wink

Ciao
MS

MS, are there some nice places in northern IE? I ask as I live in austin and been driven from ontario to palm springs and like the desert climate.

If only you had read the article to the very end, you would see that everything will be all right:

With property prices and rents coming down in the Inland Empire, some shippers will find opportunity, said Mike Fox, chief executive of Rancho Cucamonga trucking company Fox Transportation. His business is down about 5%, but he's philosophical about changes in the economy.

"The Inland Empire is going to continue to explode and they will need these warehouses," Fox said. "I think it's just a matter of time."

In the meantime, hope your basis is low enough to break even with a tenant a $0.25/sf/month.

Screw the pony I want a HOG.

dead thread so what the hay?

New York: Brando movies from the 50's.

Riverside County: Zappa songs from the 60's.

I ought to get out more.

On the HOG thing:

Why would anyone try to secure this much expensive (15%/annum) long term (5 year) money? It's 20% of their total capitalization and equal to their entire net income for 2008.

The yearly nut on that is equal to half their net cash last year.

The comment about garage queens is right - Harley could stop selling bikes entirely and the market would still be sufficiently stocked for years.

This is actually good news for the companies like mine that are still viable. The increased vacancy rate will translate into decreased rent. For the last 6 years we had to compete for space with companies that had no long term viability and should have never been occupying industrial space in the first place.

It is kind of similar to the residential bust in that the occupants who could never afford their houses in the first place are now leaving them to those of us that can, at much more reasonable prices.

Ian in Austin:

You can probably find some nice places in the High Desert: Hesperia, Victorville, Apple Valley area. Though not sure if that technically is north IE. They probably don't want to be grouped with us.

Mike

In WA state "Inland Empire" refers to the Spokane area Wink

I believe that Buffet is buying the HOG notes.

15 percent? Sounds like desperate for cash(survival) or a Ponzi...one of the two.

Just watch and episode of COPS to learn about the garden spots of the IE. The concentration of gangs, drugs, illegals, meth and rock in Rialto, Fontucky, Colton. Yuk. You couldn't pay me to live there.

Now is a GREAT time to.... wrote:
Our area is immune to all that. Morro Bay

The wife and I stayed ther for one night before heading up to The Hearst Castle. Beautiful...the little Gibraltar.

"Inland empire? Pshaw. Here in Alexandria, my condo has gone from zillowing at 500K to 377K. (Next stop, room temp for you kelvin-heads.)
Do you know how many times I got told the change in administrations was going to drive housing thru the roof?"


JP I have no doubt that the change in administrations will drive values up - of course, not until the administration changes 3 or 4 more times. See ya in about 20-30 yrs.

Ian,

On the ridge line to the west of Temecula is a shallow mesa that has a lot of nice homes (mostly horse properties) This area will be the only nice place left in the Temecula Valley. Only a handfull of roads leed into it which can be guraded by the milita.

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