I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.": Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot. Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing." query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. " double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe." ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
nades writes: CRBot: Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff... ("But with much less dopey residue, nades.")
This suggests vehicle sales have fallen too far. - CR
Not at all. Again you are using static analysis. New vehicles are for the most part needed as REPLACEMENTS. Some of that is arbitrary and until recently short termed. Most is necessity and the amazing thing is cars last a whole hunkin' hell of a lot longer. Buy a 2006 Honda Civic and drive it for 250,000 miles? What? No one is laughing? Why? Does anyone remeber the early 70s when 45k "used up" a car?
We aren't going Havana but we are going to hold on and use up our vehicle stock for a very very long time. [New] Vehicle sales have not fallen anywhere near far enough.
No sunshine here. But wait ... we all know this cliff diving will stop sometime, and probably not at zero.
Of course, if the numbers look really bad, we can just lie about the numbers. Errr, I mean use a different protocol and multiplier. But I guess that's something we would never do.
Could the light at the end of the tunnel be the runaway train of crosscascading defaults? Unless congresscritters pass a japan style law forcing folks to unload cars after a couple of years will automobiles turn around.
Too much manufacturing capacity and a refusal to reduce supply=deflation.
I do think we've hit a bottom of existing home sales - the cheaper things get, the more people can afford them.
the bad news is going to be the inventory numbers when the banks get their act together and start REOing their entire backlog.
--
Whatever else happens in 2009 don't expect CR to tell you that depression would begin in 2009. The guy is clueless when it comes to housing and the economy. His only way to try to look good is to suppress data information posts that proves that he was wrong. The guy has a problem in admitting that he was wrong.
All of America's economic problems can be traced to bad behavior on part of the economic and political leaders and economists.
Hello darkness, my old friend,
Ive come to talk with you again,
Because a vision softly creeping,
Left its seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence.
Can I see the charts from 1928 until now ? mmckinl | 02.03.09 - 7:52 pm | #
Chart porn wish list: Same graphs with GD I on them. Like the 4 bad bears graphs. (Yes I know, big data changes in between. And how would you relate auto sales then and now, when the whole world of cars has changed.)
Was just reading about the Yugoslav partisans, WWII. They crossed a river to elude a German entrapment. The bridge was down, so they improvised with planks. When the survivors got across the river they were faced with imposing mountains. One of them looked up and said: Well, comrades, we have now entered history. The question is, who will get us out of it?
I'm not sure why one would consider the situation for autos more rosy than homes.
If the average age of cars right now is low, which I suspect that it is, than many have a lot of time before they need to consider a replacement. Also, cars last longer today than they did in the past. So it could take just as long to "work off" the working car inventory as is the case with housing.
Also, there is the matter of people substituting public transportation for automobiles. Last time I checked public transit ridership was up, not sure if it still is now that fuel prices are down.
You're right. The numbers are getting so horrific that at some point the comps are just going to be too easy. The market doesn't have to be good to move up. It just has to be LESS WORSE.
crispy&cole, no way 2009 will be "good". If housing starts bottom, they will be at a very depressed level - and any rebound will be weak.
Jas, If you'd be more polite, maybe I'd read your posts! I read this one by accident - usually I just ignore them. This should be a lesson to you - it's not just what you say, but it is also how you say it - if you want to be heard.
Good for Obama...Would never see the with GOP assclowns or Wall St crooks.
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama is taking responsibility for mistakes in the handling of the tax controversy that led to Tom Daschle's withdrawal as President Barack Obama's nominee to be health and human services secretary, saying: "I screwed up."
The president did a series of back-to-back television interviews in which the subject of failed nominees was a top subject.
Obama told NBC "I'm frustrated with myself" for unintentionally sending a message that there are "two sets of rules" for paying taxes, "one for prominent people and one for ordinary folks."
"I take responsibility for this mistake," he told Fox News.
He Said It!
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
I think it's telling that these indicators are hitting physical limits despite all the intervention. I think the real question isn't if we'll hit bottom in 2009, it's how long we'll stay there once we hit. Everyone seems to think it's a policy choice whether we do or not; I'm not so sure.
The question of how long will cars last? As long as one throws parts at it or crashed beyond repair. I had a customer with a Caravan with 650K on it a real pile of junk used to deliver airport luggage. I asked when he was going to replace and said it was cheaper to fix then replace it. It finally got smashed and replaced.
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients? I noticed that the house stimulus bill would either pay 65% of COBRA or allow the unemployed, regardless of age or financial status, to enroll in medicare.
You Asked For A Happy Poem Part I: The Happy Narrative Well, here it is. A happy poem. A poem with a dog, and a beach and a sunset, two people walking, the dishes are done, no hint of rain, there's money in the bank. Do you see them? The lovers polish the stars with their breath, rub sentences together, listen to the man in the moon. Did I tell you there is a moon? There are no wrinkles, no noses that get in the way, no sand that irritates delicate areas. No. The moon sprinkles away thoughts about the strangeness of bodies, about the brief delay in time where one misses the other's desire to be kissed, or the sudden intrusion of winter in the middle of a heat wave. Part II. The Happy Interlude Happy Things:sunshine yellow mustard & purple cellophane orange shellacked chocolate candy shiny vinyl-coated dumbbells Happy Thoughts: that lime green PVC slicker that kept you toasty warm this morning will be around when you are gone the virginal blush of pink chenille footies the weather channel is always there for you there are no eggs so I can't make tuna salad david byrne comes fully assembled ready for your constructivist gratification yep I'd miss WalMart if it were gone toast is just bread gone one step deader Part III: The Happy Narrative Continues They are still walking. the moon still shines, the dog fetches sticks and the cancer that will push her out of her life is the flesh he cups with his left hand, the flesh that makes him hard. They need each other now, they are wrapped in fuses and dynamite.
No one is going to be buying new cars anytime soon. Take a look at all the cars with defective lights and body damage. If they can't afford their deductable - they sure are not going to be buying.
I also have to say that I see a lot of animosity directed at auto workers simply because they're auto workers; yet when you contemplate the sheer number of soon-to-be worthless skill sets that are getting laid off en masse lately... people whose jobs rest upon three and four layers of the corporate food chain... I mean, come on: "SEO Coordinators"? whose jobs apparently revolve around sticking the right keywords into the right web pages?
And it took, what, $100,000 to properly "educate" these "skilled" workers? That's waste.
In the 70's, my dad bought a little red Ford Fiesta as a commute car. He beat it almost to death, then after a few years bought another one of the same model year to use for parts, and it became my brother's car (He actually tried to outrun the police in that beater - and led them right to our home, because of course the little thing just couldn't "go"). Anyway, I wonder if that may be the direction car ownership will take for awhile - simple utility.
//reptillian writes:
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients? I noticed that the house stimulus bill would either pay 65% of COBRA or allow the unemployed, regardless of age or financial status, to enroll in medicare.
reptillian | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:42 pm | #//
Medicare for All ... it will help all our products be more competitive.
mmckinl | 02.03.09 - 8:38 pm | #
Tell me how the Big 3 deal with Canada?
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side. There are 3 retirees for one current worker. This can not survive. Universal health care is not the problem. I understand that if one starts at age 18 and works 30 years then they collect retirement from day one. There is a lot of info the public is not aware or clear on to make a real decision.
This all depends on some sort of resolution to the financial system situation.
What, you're not a "real business cycle" kind of gal?
The attempted resolution will involve extending sovereign creditworthiness to banks, and then hoping the contagion only flows in one direction. I think.
Those MDs who make lots of money from gold-plated insurance patients may decline a Medicare patient. That is a small minority.
Most MDs in private practice that accept insurance for full payment will accept Medicare.
All MDs associated with Medical Centers with teaching staffs will accept Medicare.
MedicAid (the state programs with Fed support) pays less than Medicare and not MDs will accept MedicAid, although most of the last two classes above will do so, but a lesser fraction of class 2 above.
"UAW workers should have thought about that years ago. "
Do you know many people who demand to be paid less for the good of the economy, society, their employer, the state, or their industry? Auto company executives, for example?
In a centrally planned and regulated economy that I knew a bit about, taxes were extremely low, but so were wages, so that what the state did not collect in direct taxation it appropriated through low wages. The standard of living was low as well. Despite the propaganda, there were large numbers of workers who received even lower wages than those in flagship industries. Society as a whole was fixed in a state of permanent depression and deficit supply.
Did US auto companies make good profits in the era in which they negotiated high wages and benefits?
If so, were high wages the sole cause of a failure to profit in subsequent years?
Heard about the expression "cutting the gordian knot"
//The attempted resolution will involve extending sovereign creditworthiness to banks, and then hoping the contagion only flows in one direction. I think.
It certainly promises to be an interesting year.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #//
The Gordian Knot is a legend associated with Alexander the Great. It is often used as a metaphor for an intractable problem, solved by a bold stroke ("cutting the Gordian knot")
I have to disagree with your assumptions at the end of the post. For sales to increase with homes, people have to be employed and have salaries that will support the mortgage prices. I do agree that it will slow down, but there are so many games being played with laws and hiding assets on the books that we may never see the true numbers.
Second, how can sales in the first chart head south but the number of registered vehicles go up? Does this indicate that something is not right in Denmark (no offense meant). If registration is up but sales are showing down, then there is a major disconnect.
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side. There are 3 retirees for one current worker. This can not survive. Universal health care is not the problem. Economist Moe Howard 3SU
~~~~
They were supposed to invest ...No? Seems all corporations and governments are facing this big question ... But as to health care the answer is much easier ... Medicare for All ...
This should be a lesson to you - it's not just what you say, but it is also how you say it - if you want to be heard. - CR
Wall street learned that lesson years ago, and in spades. They realized it wasn't the facts that were important, it was the presentation that made the sale.
Wall street is full of people that have no morals. They sell shams to people that don't like to think.
The dot.com bubble & the housing bubble provide the proof.
I've learned plenty from both CR AND Jas.
Ignore the presentation. It's reality that counts.
The study found the average American household owns 2.28 vehicles, with 34% owning only one but 35% owning three or more. This continues a trend that has seen the three-plus-cars category grow over the last quarter century. The type of vehicles these multiple-vehicle households own is also important.
Lets see. If you cut all the autoworkers pay in half for 10 years and put in an account as one lump sum. Then offered it to JPM as their bonus pool for the year - they would laugh and give it to the mailroom.
mal... I still bet the overall number is small.
NOT Irving Fisher!
.
Out here on the West Coast, having lots of cars is the norm. One for every member of the family, plus a big truck to haul the RV, and a "field car" parked in the back yard, "cause it still runs good."
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side.
Then we might as well indict the whole idea of the American middle class, because those UAW deals MADE the American middle class (and other blue-collar union deals).
There is such a thing as blocs of workers being too powerful. But I'm not sure what was supposed to curb the demands. As Pavel said, when do people ever ask for less money?
Did US auto companies make good profits in the era in which they negotiated high wages and benefits?
If so, were high wages the sole cause of a failure to profit in subsequent years?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #
No matter what you say about yesterdays deals on either side, this is today not yesterday. They continue on the course they are on their gone. The other way is Ford and GM use their world wide operations and use rebaged import product in NA. Take your pick either one the UAW is in big trouble. The need to compete on the same leave as the import US operation has to happen. An inconvenient reality.
Never mind the dog being named after Obama, what about all the streets, roads and kids? They also just named some Arctic research outpost "Station Obama" or something. Sheez. Didn't anyone ever tell them never to name something after a living person?
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
Do you think he would have said he screwed up of there was not such an uproar about it? Hell no. The fact that he let Geithner go through speaks volumes about his character.
but seriously.. money is not real. it is our belief in the system that make it real.
In a post-industrial society, the majority of the population have useless jobs anyway, and the minority with useless jobs have them to service the majority with useless jobs.
"Then we might as well indict the whole idea of the American middle class, because those UAW deals MADE the American middle class (and other blue-collar union deals)."
Isn't it obvious? Do you want to fire your customers and then hope that someone else pays them enough to buy what you produce?
These paradoxes happen in societies addicted to class warfare. Why do you think fascism had a run in the 30s? It promised an end to the paradoxes.
As Pavel said, when do people ever ask for less money?
mal | 02.03.09 - 8:55 pm | #
Yes they do and many are about to humble themselves and step down in jobs and wages and become happy with less. This has happened many times before.
I have friends who are retired from GM and will get clobbered in this deal. I have no gain in this. I even will lose my common stock if the BK. I am thinking of the best in the long run.
Many here (and elsewhere) decry the arrogance and sense of entitlement of the plutocratic class - especially the financial community. They say they have too much power and control the government.
At the same time these anti-plutocratic folks say that unions brought down the American enterprise - especially the car companies.
The plutocrats didn't creat the Post WWII middle class because they wanted to be generous and share wealth. They were forced to share by the unions demanding their share. And they got it, but not at the expense of the plutocrats. Productivity and full employment increased overall wealth. (See Clinton era properity).
Unions are now less than 15% of workers, and they little power overall in the economy - the corp. giants dominate the political process.
Attacking the weak unions doesn't fix the corporate control of society.
In an OC beach town. I think my problem is I can't imagine where in the hell anyone parks 3 cars. Thinking back to when I was in TX it makes a lot more sense.
There once was a man named Jas
He was what you'd call an ass
"You're dopes!" he would boast
As such, he was ignored by most
The others he simply gave gas....
THE TEST BEGINS - NOW (spoken)
I thought I was smart - I thought I was right
I thought it better not to fight - I thought there was a
Virtue in always being cool - so when it came time to
Fight I thought I'll just step aside and that the time would
Prove you wrong and that you would be the fool -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
Oh to fight is to defend if it's not
Now than tell me when would be the time that you would stand up
And be a man - for to lose I could accept but to surrender
I just wept and regretted this moment - oh that I - I
Was the fool
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
Cause I'm a man not a boy and there are things
You can't avoid you have to face them when you're not prepared
To face them -
If I could I would but you're with him now it'd do no good
I should have fought him but instead I let him - I let
Him take it -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
THE TEST BEGINS - NOW (spoken)
I thought I was smart - I thought I was right
I thought it better not to fight - I thought there was a
Virtue in always being cool - so when it came time to
Fight I thought I'll just step aside and that the time would
Prove you wrong and that you would be the fool -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
Oh to fight is to defend if it's not
Now than tell me when would be the time that you would stand up
And be a man - for to lose I could accept but to surrender
I just wept and regretted this moment - oh that I - I
Was the fool
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
Cause I'm a man not a boy and there are things
You can't avoid you have to face them when you're not prepared
To face them -
If I could I would but you're with him now it'd do no good
I should have fought him but instead I let him - I let
Him take it -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
In a post-industrial society, the majority of the population have useless jobs anyway, and the minority with useless jobs have them to service the majority with useless jobs.
lucifer
.
Well, 'useless' is in the eye of the beholder. That starts getting into anthropology.
.
Anyway, that's not why your dialogue with Pavel is funny.
To me, a 'drag' on GDP is maximized at the bottom, not lessened. The rate of decline levels off, but the drag continues until the industry returns to a higher level - which could be many years.
doctors here in the former U.S. of W charge three prices. the medicaid price, the insurance company price and the uninsured cash price.
the uninsured price is the highest. this price discrimination is at the root of the immorality in our health care cartel. if you are caught in the pre-existing condition catch-22 you pay the most.
nearly half of all bankruptcies are related to crushing medical bills. imagine what a wave of optimism and prosperity that would cleanse this nation if people did not fear for dying in the streets after (inevitably) falling ill. imagine if the tarp bankster bonus bucks had been instead directed at healing our people.
it is impossible to have a free market without transparent pricing, as in prices posted front and center on a menu, not hidden.
secret pricing for health care has got to be one of the most evil abominations of our free market experiment with health care.
For the pro union folks. Why has the union not stepped up and bought Chrysler? Seems they are giving it away to Fist? What would be wrong with the UAW owning shares for proceeds in a car company?
Don't kid yourself. The games large companies play with pricing to create the appearance of "value" is shocking... and actually I was thinking more in line with the actual person selling the product.
It's not economic hard times that really worry me - although perhaps I should worry more. Social disintegration worries me, corruption and other forms of law breaking and indifference. Without solidarity we will have a hard time surviving as a democracy.
mal writes:
I also have to say that I see a lot of animosity directed at auto workers simply because they're auto workers; yet when you contemplate the sheer number of soon-to-be worthless skill sets that are getting laid off en masse lately... people whose jobs rest upon three and four layers of the corporate food chain... I mean, come on: "SEO Coordinators"? whose jobs apparently revolve around sticking the right keywords into the right web pages?
And it took, what, $100,000 to properly "educate" these "skilled" workers? That's waste.
You need to get with the new millenium--times are changing. SEO is not a waste, it is money extremely well spent.
Unions are now less than 15% of workers, and they little power overall in the economy - the corp. giants dominate the political process.
That is why the growth area for unions have been in government. We seem to have politicians who can't say no, especially when they grease they campaign funds.
I recomend decimation.. publicly torture and kill the top 10% of "politically active" doctors and their families.
And have laws allowing for summary execution of doctors who intentionally screw up later + increase number of medical seats.
//otishertz writes:
doctors here in the former U.S. of W charge three prices. the medicaid price, the insurance company price and the uninsured cash price.//
It must have been the eighties. I don't remember when. But there was a debate about moving to a "services economy." Some people asked, "What will we do? Will we all be able to make a living doing each other's laundry?" Then some wag saved the day by saying, "No! Some people will flip burgers."
"I take responsibility for this mistake," he told Fox News.'"
He never should have nominated the putz in the first place. Daschle has been sucking at the teat of the health insurance industry for years and this is the guy that Obama picks to fix health care? Geithner redux. Change we can believe in? Not.
"Why do you say "addicted to class warfare" as if exploitation never actually happens?"
Of course exploitation happens. I should apologize for not realizing that the phrase 'class warfare' is a code term used by anti-labor voices. I never meant it that way.
It's not economic hard times that really worry me - although perhaps I should worry more. Social disintegration worries me, corruption and other forms of law breaking and indifference. Without solidarity we will have a hard time surviving as a democracy.
Sauve qui peut is the motto of a dying culture.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 9:08 pm | #
We agree on this one. Greed has been instilled as the sign of success and anybody who takes the ten year overnight success is a dope.
how can anyone in good conscience charge two human beings with the same ailment different prices? and how can anyone charge the least able to pay (the uninsured) the most?
answer: they have no conscience.
anyone else ever notice that the quoted number of uninsured is always 40 million no matter how many millions are laid off or lose their benefits?
Thieves, thieves and liars, murderers
Hypocrites and bastards [in laughter]
Hey thanks for nothing!
Morals in the dust
Two-faced bastards and syncophants
No trust
Thieves! liar!
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of their mouth do you suppose that it came?
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of the grass is greener?
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Youre like a great big fucking gun,
Just waiting to get squeezed!
Breathe, forfeit erection!
Toxical injection
Geriatric fuck-fest
We still believe in lies
I find that "class warfare" is a mentality more often adopted by the college-edumacated. As if getting drunk four nights a week, shuffling your way to big lecture sections in your jammies and working at unpaid internships means you're somehow more enlightened than 50-year-old guys working in a factory. (and hence, more fit to rule)
JimPortlandOR writes:
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients?
YMMV
Those MDs who make lots of money from gold-plated insurance patients may decline a Medicare patient. That is a small minority.
Most MDs in private practice that accept insurance for full payment will accept Medicare.
All MDs associated with Medical Centers with teaching staffs will accept Medicare.
MedicAid (the state programs with Fed support) pays less than Medicare and not MDs will accept MedicAid, although most of the last two classes above will do so, but a lesser fraction of class 2 above.
JimPortlandOR | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #
Anyone who is 50 or older should be ok if we go to a Medicare type of socialized medicine.
Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:
Obviously the money will nowhere near compensate the amount of time spent in training.
Many people become physicians because they want to be in control of their own destiny.
The Medicare system is very poorly run as it is. When it gets bigger these problems will be magnified.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate voted Tuesday to give a tax break to new car buyers, setting aside bipartisan concerns over the size of an economic stimulus bill with a price tag approaching $900 billion.
The 71-26 vote came as President Barack Obama said he lies awake nights worrying about the economy, and signaled opposition to congressional attempts to insert ''buy American'' provisions into the legislation.
FDR: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself..."
how can anyone in good conscience charge two human beings with the same ailment different prices?
This is the entire rationale behind HMOs and insurance plans that negotiate with hospitals for discounted rates. If they don't get their rate, the HMOs and insurance companies send their patients elsewhere. Individuals showing up via the ER aren't offered those rates, but they can usually get them if they negotiate with the hospital.
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
//Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly://
Let the f**kers find other professions, maybe investment banking or real estate!
//1. Obviously the money will nowhere near compensate the amount of time spent in training.//
No.. they become physicians because they have an unfulfilled god complex.
//2. Many people become physicians because they want to be in control of their own destiny.//
I agree, but it could be reformed. //3. The Medicare system is very poorly run as it is. When it gets bigger these problems will be magnified.//
Don't feel bad, once they have done lynching people like you, it won't matter
//I feel bad for the younger ones.//
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs. I can't help it, I find class warriors really tedious and simple.
California became the lowest rated U.S. state as Standard & Poors cut its general obligation bonds one grade because Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers have failed to close a record budget deficit.
Californias $46 billion of full-faith-and-credit debt was lowered to A, the sixth-highest of 10 investment grades, from A+, the New York-based rating firm said in a release.
The downgrade by S&P puts California, the most populous state and largest tax-exempt borrower, below the level it shared with Louisiana. Moodys Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have said they may cut California from A1 and A+, respectively, their fifth-highest grades.
The lowered rating reflects our view of the states inability to reach an agreement on a mid-year budget revision and its rapidly eroding cash position, Gabriel Petek, an S&P analyst in San Francisco, said in the release.
Bond Girl writes:
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs. I can't help it, I find class warriors really tedious and simple.
The real bandits -- or I should say those that made out like bandits -- are those that sold real estate at the peak.
hey, is there a grandfather clause on that tax break? Im feeling like more and more of a fool with each passing day. Didnt buy a house, bought the car at the wrong time, cant get the damn stimulus check...frak me.
I think some of this reasoning on car purchases is optimistic. I have no numbers, but here's my logic:
There's people who trade in their cars every few years and buy/lease new ones. Their cars AREN'T worn out, generally -- they've just lost that new car smell.
Other people, lower on the socioeconomic ladder (let's call them 'lower middle class', since everyone in America is middle class) buy newer used cars when their older used cars wear out.
Now there's some people, it is true, who buy new and drive to end-of-life. But I think they're a small minority.
The problem, in a scenario where the people who buy new cars don't really have to, and the people who need replacement cars can't qualify for new cars, is that there is nothing stopping the upper-middles from just keeping their cars an extra 6-12 months on average. This could go on for a long time. Who'd be screwed? The lower-middles, and the car companies.
mal writes:
I find that "class warfare" is a mentality more often adopted by the college-edumacated. As if getting drunk four nights a week, shuffling your way to big lecture sections in your jammies and working at unpaid internships means you're somehow more enlightened than 50-year-old guys working in a factory. (and hence, more fit to rule)
mal | 02.03.09 - 9:16 pm | #
You obvioulsly didn't go to college... if you had you would know getting drunk 7 days a week and attending classes a couple of days a week are standard.
lucifer writes:
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
Wrong, my step-daughter is in med school. She is remarkably intelligent as well as sweet and caring as they come. She understands that she will not be making any money but does not care. She just wants to help people.
I think the failed appointments are a serious set-back. At least he apologized, but business as usual is obviously not going to get us out of this predicament.
//S&P forecasts 200 defaults
By Anousha Sakoui in London
Published: February 2 2009 17:46 | Last updated: February 2 2009 17:46
About 200 US junk-rated companies are likely to default this year, according to Standard & Poors, affecting almost $350bn worth of debt and adding impetus to alternatives to bankruptcy, such as distressed debt exchanges.//
Nice. You have lots of good music links. I wish I had been bookmarking them all along. I know there's a few that I was meaning to buy and I can't remember them now.
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
I don't believe that's true, or at least I hope it's not true for all of us. Relative pay in medicine has been static for a long time, and the money-driven guys have increasingly tended to go into other fields where you get to sleep in your own bed every night. So in that respect, physician quality seems to have improved lately. However, your comment about the God complex is well taken. Beware the doc with the vanity plate....
Sauve qui peut* is the motto of a dying culture.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 9:08 pm | #
We are like birds who decide to fly in a straight line because we feel it will be more equal. The belief that we can create and control money is destroying us.
"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency"
The deflation will end sometime in late 2010. Housing prices still have a long, long way to fall. The government will have wasted trillions of dollars during that time(Socialism doesn't work). Then we can look forward to holocaust inflation. We'll look back at 2008 as the good old days.
I feel bad for the younger ones. PSgirl | 02.03.09 - 9:18 pm | #
And why do you think there are still doctors in Europe? BTW, I prefer the European system and its quality of care by miles to the U.S. one and I have extensive personal experience in both.
Tis the season of the low profile, lol.
Sol
.
Certainly is in my latitude. And with no clouds lately, I'm actually getting solar gain. Energy bill should be lower this month.
Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon and set me free
I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't you break your lock and key
I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't ya break your lock and key
Yeah, come along here, mister
C'mon and let the poor boy be
Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
C'mon little darlin'
C'mon and give your love to me, oh yeah
Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon and set me free
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I was a big obama supporter... and I really do like some of the appointments... geithner was disappointing.. but daschle dropping out is a good sign.
Remember that Bush had his cabinet packed with criminals for 8 years and wouldn't make anyone step aside no matter how awful or incompetent.. he also never apologized for anything.. not even torturing children to death
Obama has been president for what.. 2 fucking weeks and people want to crucify him?
He's already accomplished more than Bush did in 8 damn years.
By the way This year I am doubling my garden and the excess is going to the seniors center.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU
why the senior center? why not the childrens center? the seniors are terminal. at least you can feed well the new stock.
I'll never forget the lesson's in gardening in my Fourth Grade class, seabreze elemantary, jax beach florida...MR andrews... we had a Huge garden. they just don't do that very often nowadays. It was a Public school
"Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:"
bite my ass. i'd rather people have average ongoing preventative care by average people instead of DEATH CARE from the expensive arrogant self proclaimed geniuses who can't even tell you how much they charge for their ten or so services.
i'd rather people had basic ongoing care before they got sick thenmaybe they wouldn't need to surrender their life savings to some genius
...in a bentley with his fourth wife sitting there, watching her diamond glint in the sun... slurping a latte, eyes under designer shades fixed firmly above the homeless at her feet.
Reading the comments, it would seem logical that the best strategy to get another job for those unemployed in these downturns is 1) refuse employer health care (if offered) and 2) demand less pay for the job than the employer is offering.
This'd solve the US employment problem quickly IMO.
The problem with the idea that new car sales will bottom out is it doesn't deal with the underlying problem: affordability. You will notice that the graph begins sloping up at least since Jan 2000. A lot of car sales are made by putting car buyers further and further into debt. 60 month loans, 72 month loans, rolling the underwater part of the previous car loan into the new car loan. Now in the credit crunch all those leases and sub-prime buyers can't get qualified even if they wanted to buy the car.
Assuming we won't get back to the crazy lending standards, a lot of Americans are going to get introduced to public transportation, biking or walking.
why the senior center? why not the childrens center? the seniors are terminal. at least you can feed well the new stock.
I'll never forget the lesson's in gardening in my Fourth Grade class, seabreze elemantary, jax beach florida...MR andrews... we had a Huge garden. they just don't do that very often nowadays. It was a Public school
confused | 02.03.09 - 9:41 pm | #
Why the seniors center? I am a pretty hard ball guy. Feeding kids will only free up public money for the idiot parents to piss away riding on the kids back. Schools provide breakfast and lunch and OB plans will fund after school snacks. In my town the kids even get summer meals. The seniors whether they did good with their lives or not we can't throw them back into the volcano. The young ones need it badly. We take dogs away from owners who abuse them less then some of the so called parents do their kids. Just my view. You going to grow food and feed the kids?
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
Do you think he would have said he screwed up of there was not such an uproar about it? Hell no. The fact that he let Geithner go through speaks volumes about his character.
"Couldn't people replace their aging cars with existing used cars? NO GDP growth from autos if so. Same for new houses."
One might even think that would be a wise course of action
You know... all these things would be a positive thing if they could have been introduced gradually... but unfortunately we are dealing with humans.. they never get it until it's too late
there are still neo-con rush-bots who think we should cut taxes and continue massive defense spending
And why do you think there are still doctors in Europe? BTW, I prefer the European system and its quality of care by miles to the U.S. one and I have extensive personal experience in both.
RE | 02.03.09 - 9:35 pm | #
The European way of life is much different than life in the US--more vacation, fewer hours, etc... IMO, this is the reason that they have better health outcomes. Has nothing to do with the "quality" of socialized medicine.
"Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:"
bite my ass. i'd rather people have average ongoing preventative care by average people instead of DEATH CARE from the expensive arrogant self proclaimed geniuses who can't even tell you how much they charge for their ten or so services.
That is good, because that is what you will get. Average care.
Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer.
Down to one pickumup truck now. Not counting the two under blue tarps in the back forty. Let the grandkids use those for target practice. Figure it will do em good when the ballon goes up in the cities.
On the Treasury and Bernanke, how many of us have created charts & graphs showing the issuance that needs to be rolled? I know Energy Econ, myself, maybe Nemo... anyone else?
"Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer."
That's actually the kind of thinking that got us into this mess...... Rare diseases and cancers aren't the problem... the commmon health issues that make up 95% of what our healthcare system should deal with are the problem
In a way the Madoff affair scares me more than the bank and insurance company failures. The latter might be ascribed to bad judgment, the logic of the market and lapses in ethics. There may be more to it, but we don't know that as yet.
The former suggests some kind of disease - a disintegration.
It's very worrisome. Even cleaning up after Madoff could inflict great damage. That's how bad it is.
otishertz writes:
i can not imagine most of the docsters i have known (dozens and dozens) running a real business or growing a callous on their pinky.
otishertz | 02.03.09 - 10:16 pm | #
That is because they are inclined to be scientists, not CEOs or lumberjacks.
Additionally, most have absolutely no social skills.
The Markopolos testimony gives me the creeps.
Pavel Chichikov
Really, why? I find it encouraging that he had the integrity and courage to go forward with his investigation, despite the obvious danger. And, even better, he had 4 volunteers.
I think that's something to cheer.
Osama bin Paulson writes:
"Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer."
That's actually the kind of thinking that got us into this mess...... Rare diseases and cancers aren't the problem... the commmon health issues that make up 95% of what our healthcare system should deal with are the problem
Uh, no. The problem is the American way of life. Overeating, no exercise and stress.
"Really, why? I find it encouraging that he had the integrity and courage to go forward with his investigation, despite the obvious danger. And, even better, he had 4 volunteers.
I think that's something to cheer."
You misunderstood me. Please see my comment @ 10.23
"But wait ... we all know this cliff diving will stop sometime, and probably not at zero."
Of course it won't go to zero. In fact these indicators will soon turn around quickly, because we have elected the "right" people (those with a 'D' after their name). The messiah has come to save us all. If only we had listened to the prophet Gore in 2000 the NASDAQ would have remained above 5k and would likely be around 7k right now.
I worked as an environmental engineer at an air force base several years ago. I never saw so many self-important, well paid, egotistical, non-productive group of folks - civilian and military - in my life. Waste, fraud and abuse summed it up. Taking travel duty (TDY) to exotic places not because it was necessary, but because they could. The military folks made sure they had a job lined up with one of the consultants, who they steered many expensive projects to, once they retired. Sickening.
"
You can't say anything complicated or nuanced in 140 characters. I am sure readers will provide some cute counterexamples, but try explaining Plato's cave in those confines. Can't be done. You might allude to it, but you could not present it to someone who didn't know about it already. And Twitter encourages people to accept a medium that severely constrains communication, and calls a defect a virtue.
IMO, this is the reason that they have better health outcomes. Has nothing to do with the "quality" of socialized medicine. Anonymous | 02.03.09 - 10:05 pm | #
I said that I prefer their quality of care by miles as per personal experience. This is not a theoretical construct.
to give you a personal perspective about this issue, I have a 1998 Honda Civic DX, with about 145,000 miles
it has no defects, has had no major repairs, and runs close to brand new, and I service it promptly according to the manual
I have no intention of replacing it until it begins to have mechanical problems, or around 220,000 miles, when I would then consider buying a more environmentally friendly vehicle
my wife has a 1998 Jeep Cherokee, she test drives a car every now and then, and professes to want a new one, but then, afterwards, says, well, I think I'll just wait
why would we rush to replace to fully paid, fully operational vehicles???
If tens of thousands of UAW workers lose good-paying jobs, will that increase consumer spending? It might not hurt too much if there were other good jobs waiting for them. Are there?
,i>They plowed under crops during the Great Depression.
I have seen this a few times recently. They were plowing under crops here in California last summer -- it was with mellons. The cost of picking and distribution exceeded market prices. Just like in the GD, giving them away would depress prices even more.
The car sales data needs to be calibrated to the total population. In 1982 the population was lower, so matching that sales level now, when we have many more people, means the situation is much worse.
I have thought that it would come to this only in a mad max scenario, where local and state officials were pleading with Washington for air-strikes.
reptillian
~~~~~
Look for "blighted" areas to be condemned and demolished ... especially around valuable RE ...
A Wall Street Story? This is from the last thread but as it seems some of the better minds are here/returned, let me propose not perhaps a story, but a fantasy?
Bloomberg the news corp requests bank/TARP info via FOIA. Still doesn't have it. Markopolos set to testify - with the goods indicting a lot of the players and structure. Does Bloomberg the man stand to benefit (indirectly) in his quest for Mayor/Governor if his news org finally stands up and reports this? Totally blows the roof off and brings the whole Street culture down in a way Spitzer couldn't even imagine?
Just curious what better minds think of the plausibility level. Thanks!
Erm, CR, "vehicle sales have fallen too far"? And there should be a reversion to mean based on the same kind of loose / predatory lending standards of the last several years, when the consumer is tapped out, afraid of losing their job, with tough mortgage conditions and nasty CC resets hitting the balance sheet, and the 401k in the toilet?
Hooomama. Having never myself bought a new car, that really sounds like a recipe for buying at premium a gleaming hunk of steel that does precisely what my current aging land-crab does.
Geoff (fool me once shame on.. writes:
Blodget? People still care what he has to say?
~~~~
Great American dopes that's who ... They think a British accent means knowledge, when it actually means they got booted from Britain for being insufferable.
The markets are working. Housing and cars are becoming affordable. Bring home the troops Obama, arrest the fraudsters, balance the budget, and then get out of the way.
If tens of thousands of UAW workers lose good-paying jobs, will that increase consumer spending? It might not hurt too much if there were other good jobs waiting for them. Are there?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:11 pm | #
UAW workers should have thought about that years ago. Greed has it's price everyone is paying for this mess..
I must say that all "redundancies," "staff reductions," "down-sizings," etc., are evidence of managerial incompentency. Who will dispute this point? Dead-wood you say? Isn't the existence of "dead-wood" also evidence of managerial incompetency?
--
America has been being taken down by bad people, from top to bottom, economists being in the middle!, and there is no political solution that I know of. Propaganda played the crucial role.
Morality takes long time to instill and lot less time to lose. Americans decided to experiment with loose morality beginning in 1960s and the process can't be easily (over a short period) reversed, can it?
I doubt they do. Lots of info needed to really have a true equal cost basis. Like how many labor hours are billed to each car for production cost. That alone could foul the advertised labor comparisons in the news. The legacy cost are from pensions and not modern 401k plans. Some insight is found at the Detroit Free press comments if you spend the time filtering through the hate mail of UAW and None union folks. How gets paid days off for hunting? Work banks where people sit for many years at 95% of wages? Lots of crazy benefits from the past are the burden of today.
I think the argument for a glimmer of hope for car sales is potentially flawed. The number of car registrations/household may very well decline going forward -- people will decide they don't need three cars -- and so the replacement demand will be cut accordingly.
Why were UAW workers greedy to get what they could get? You don't see anyone saying that about Wall Street CEOs and their bonuses, do you?
mal | 02.03.09 - 8:32 pm | #
I do not agree with the Golden parachutes nor excessive bonuses. I think some of these guys belong in jail.
Who says that well made and inexpensive cars do not sell?
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., South Koreas largest carmakers, defied lower U.S. demand in January to help Asian brands grab record market share and outsell U.S.-based competitors.
Hyundai gained 14 percent and affiliate Kias sales rose 3.5 percent, even as Toyota Motor Corp., the worlds biggest automaker, slid 32 percent, Honda Motor Co. fell 28 percent and Nissan Motor Co. declined 30 percent. Hyundai began a program last month to let customers who lose jobs return cars.
New Thread: Looking for the Sun
( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Too many charts; didn't read
P.S. I thought we agreed no robots posting first.
lol - bad Haloscan?
Mustard seeds!
This means that the drag on employment in these industries, and the drag on GDP, will slow or stop.
But the street riots will be in full swing then, so few will notice.
The Ponzi economy is just like the Ponzi Scheme ...
Once the illusion is shattered there is no going back ...
The registered vehicles vs. vehicle sales chart is interesting...
If you wanted to argue that the U.S. has "too many", "just enough", or "not enough" cars, what statistics would you use to justify you claim?
Hopefully that sun will be enough to nourish the plants in everyone's dinner gardens. If not, people will start eating each other.
This suggests vehicle sales have fallen too far. - CR
Not at all. Again you are using static analysis. New vehicles are for the most part needed as REPLACEMENTS. Some of that is arbitrary and until recently short termed. Most is necessity and the amazing thing is cars last a whole hunkin' hell of a lot longer. Buy a 2006 Honda Civic and drive it for 250,000 miles? What? No one is laughing? Why? Does anyone remeber the early 70s when 45k "used up" a car?
We aren't going Havana but we are going to hold on and use up our vehicle stock for a very very long time. [New] Vehicle sales have not fallen anywhere near far enough.
I thought charts only go up. What did I get wrong? Is there a flaw in my system?
No sunshine here. But wait ... we all know this cliff diving will stop sometime, and probably not at zero.
Of course, if the numbers look really bad, we can just lie about the numbers. Errr, I mean use a different protocol and multiplier. But I guess that's something we would never do.
if 2/3/4 car families go down to 1 car families, with a lot of 1 car families becoming no car families, voila.
There be much more room to fall.
Yarr.
Can I see the charts from 1928 until now ?
Could the light at the end of the tunnel be the runaway train of crosscascading defaults? Unless congresscritters pass a japan style law forcing folks to unload cars after a couple of years will automobiles turn around.
Too much manufacturing capacity and a refusal to reduce supply=deflation.
Just understand that a little brighter news prevents everyone from eating each other now rather than later.
all three of these series will find a bottom
Did CR just call a bottom in 2009?
Oops.
But I do detect a hint of jealousy, Nemo.
I do think we've hit a bottom of existing home sales - the cheaper things get, the more people can afford them.
the bad news is going to be the inventory numbers when the banks get their act together and start REOing their entire backlog.
They got to Roubini, and now they've gotten to CR.
The end of the world is nigh.
CR - you sound like me from my last post...yes it will be good again...not 2009 though
--
Whatever else happens in 2009 don't expect CR to tell you that depression would begin in 2009. The guy is clueless when it comes to housing and the economy. His only way to try to look good is to suppress data information posts that proves that he was wrong. The guy has a problem in admitting that he was wrong.
All of America's economic problems can be traced to bad behavior on part of the economic and political leaders and economists.
Jas
Speed, for these three series ... yes.
Best Wishes.
"That is not going to happen."
But housing starts cannot go negative -- so true, so true.
What else can be said? Happy new year?
Hello darkness, my old friend,
Ive come to talk with you again,
Because a vision softly creeping,
Left its seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence.
If we start demolishing new houses...wouldn't that be negative housing starts?
CR should tell Adelson (LVS corp) the good news -- since he lost 90% of his wealth last year it would be impossible to lose that much again.
Most Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
--
'But housing starts cannot go negative -- so true, so true."
reptillian,
But the housing demand can! CR and other economists are clueless about this simple fact.
Jas
has anyone had experience , or ever heard of the Warn act?
my first time hearing of it
The WARN Act Guide, Employment&Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor
Can I see the charts from 1928 until now ?
mmckinl | 02.03.09 - 7:52 pm | #
Chart porn wish list: Same graphs with GD I on them. Like the 4 bad bears graphs.
(Yes I know, big data changes in between. And how would you relate auto sales then and now, when the whole world of cars has changed.)
It has to end somewhere, some time.
Was just reading about the Yugoslav partisans, WWII. They crossed a river to elude a German entrapment. The bridge was down, so they improvised with planks. When the survivors got across the river they were faced with imposing mountains. One of them looked up and said: Well, comrades, we have now entered history. The question is, who will get us out of it?
I'm not sure why one would consider the situation for autos more rosy than homes.
If the average age of cars right now is low, which I suspect that it is, than many have a lot of time before they need to consider a replacement. Also, cars last longer today than they did in the past. So it could take just as long to "work off" the working car inventory as is the case with housing.
Also, there is the matter of people substituting public transportation for automobiles. Last time I checked public transit ridership was up, not sure if it still is now that fuel prices are down.
You're right. The numbers are getting so horrific that at some point the comps are just going to be too easy. The market doesn't have to be good to move up. It just has to be LESS WORSE.
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST
On the other hand, I think Obama is off to a horrible start....
But housing starts cannot go negative -- so true, so true.
What else can be said? Happy new year?
reptillian
~~~~~
They plowed under crops during the Great Depression.
It would be just like the banksters to bull doze tens of thousands of homes ....
Cities are already doing this, the cost of maintaining streets, water and sewage make it cheaper to bull doze whole blocks.
When I start seeing perp walks, frog marches, and looong sentences...then I'll look for the sun.
I will be one of the car buyers in the next few months. I may wear an American flag to the dealership (foreign, of course, I want the car to last).
crispy&cole, no way 2009 will be "good". If housing starts bottom, they will be at a very depressed level - and any rebound will be weak.
Jas, If you'd be more polite, maybe I'd read your posts! I read this one by accident - usually I just ignore them. This should be a lesson to you - it's not just what you say, but it is also how you say it - if you want to be heard.
best to all
The biggest Q of all is....What will it look like on the other side? I say no depression but years of subpar growth...Japan style
Good for Obama...Would never see the with GOP assclowns or Wall St crooks.
WASHINGTON President Barack Obama is taking responsibility for mistakes in the handling of the tax controversy that led to Tom Daschle's withdrawal as President Barack Obama's nominee to be health and human services secretary, saying: "I screwed up."
The president did a series of back-to-back television interviews in which the subject of failed nominees was a top subject.
Obama told NBC "I'm frustrated with myself" for unintentionally sending a message that there are "two sets of rules" for paying taxes, "one for prominent people and one for ordinary folks."
"I take responsibility for this mistake," he told Fox News.
(Yes I know, big data changes in between. And how would you relate auto sales then and now, when the whole world of cars has changed.)
JP
~~~~
Only the demographics have changed, the vectors would tell the story.
I say no depression but years of subpar growth...Japan style
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:03 pm | #
Subpar is going to be the new par. imho. I think there has been a consumption earthquake whose effect will persist for most of my lifetime.
I say no depression but years of subpar growth...Japan style
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:03 pm | #
Subpar is going to be the new par. imho. I think there has been a consumption earthquake whose effect will persist for most of my lifetime.
along the lines of km4
03 Feb 2009 07:31 pm
He Said It!
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
He Said It! -
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
@$#(*&@#$ haloscan. Sorry for the double.
testing ...
I think it's telling that these indicators are hitting physical limits despite all the intervention. I think the real question isn't if we'll hit bottom in 2009, it's how long we'll stay there once we hit. Everyone seems to think it's a policy choice whether we do or not; I'm not so sure.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU
Take a look at the Big Three's health care costs ...
Foreign automakers don't have these costs do they ?
Medicare for All ... it will help all our products be more competitive.
I think it's telling that these indicators are hitting physical limits despite all the intervention.
"hitting the limits" does not imply automatic reversal.
Thread music: Reasons to be Cheerful, Ian Drury and the Blockheads
YouTube -
Random observations: my hairdresser has just launched his own shop, and is doing o.k.-- not great, but surviving.
It took only 5 minutes to find a parking space on 23rd St. Instead of 20 minutes.
A plain coffee was $1.60, local boutique coffeehouse. Still too high, even for Stumptown Roasters, IMO.
The foreclosure in my neighborhood just sold-- they were asking 319k, the 'normal' price would be about 390k. But at least it sold.
We're having a string of sunny days here in Portland, so shoppers and cafe society types much in evidence.
Thisis better..
kernel panic detected in world_economy.sys
C:>del financial.sys
Can't delete, corrupted file
Please insert . cash into system
C:> run TARP_01.exe
Can't reload ponzi_scheme.sys, cash.tmp not found
C:> run TARP_02.exe
Can't reload ponzi_scheme.sys, cash.tmp not found
C:> restore economy.sys
fatal error- File is corrupted or missing
C:> reformat /S
Can't reformat obsolete system... Please upgrade to economy 2.0
I am surprised no one has posted to a link to that metalhead John Denver singing that symphony of love "Sunshine on my shoulders"
The question of how long will cars last? As long as one throws parts at it or crashed beyond repair. I had a customer with a Caravan with 650K on it a real pile of junk used to deliver airport luggage. I asked when he was going to replace and said it was cheaper to fix then replace it. It finally got smashed and replaced.
This all depends on some sort of resolution to the financial system situation.
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients? I noticed that the house stimulus bill would either pay 65% of COBRA or allow the unemployed, regardless of age or financial status, to enroll in medicare.
In honor of the happy occasion, a happy poem...
You Asked For A Happy Poem Part I: The Happy Narrative Well, here it is. A happy poem. A poem with a dog, and a beach and a sunset, two people walking, the dishes are done, no hint of rain, there's money in the bank. Do you see them? The lovers polish the stars with their breath, rub sentences together, listen to the man in the moon. Did I tell you there is a moon? There are no wrinkles, no noses that get in the way, no sand that irritates delicate areas. No. The moon sprinkles away thoughts about the strangeness of bodies, about the brief delay in time where one misses the other's desire to be kissed, or the sudden intrusion of winter in the middle of a heat wave. Part II. The Happy Interlude Happy Things: sunshine yellow mustard & purple cellophane orange shellacked chocolate candy shiny vinyl-coated dumbbells Happy Thoughts: that lime green PVC slicker that kept you toasty warm this morning will be around when you are gone the virginal blush of pink chenille footies the weather channel is always there for you there are no eggs so I can't make tuna salad david byrne comes fully assembled ready for your constructivist gratification yep I'd miss WalMart if it were gone toast is just bread gone one step deader Part III: The Happy Narrative Continues They are still walking. the moon still shines, the dog fetches sticks and the cancer that will push her out of her life is the flesh he cups with his left hand, the flesh that makes him hard. They need each other now, they are wrapped in fuses and dynamite.
[PonziMonetizaCoruptiCapitalism writes:
has anyone had experience , or ever heard of the Warn act?]
You get zombie employees for 60 days, if they bother showing up.
No one is going to be buying new cars anytime soon. Take a look at all the cars with defective lights and body damage. If they can't afford their deductable - they sure are not going to be buying.
I also have to say that I see a lot of animosity directed at auto workers simply because they're auto workers; yet when you contemplate the sheer number of soon-to-be worthless skill sets that are getting laid off en masse lately... people whose jobs rest upon three and four layers of the corporate food chain... I mean, come on: "SEO Coordinators"? whose jobs apparently revolve around sticking the right keywords into the right web pages?
And it took, what, $100,000 to properly "educate" these "skilled" workers? That's waste.
No doubt that we are doomed. Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. That is the basis of hope. Keep hope alive.
In the 70's, my dad bought a little red Ford Fiesta as a commute car. He beat it almost to death, then after a few years bought another one of the same model year to use for parts, and it became my brother's car (He actually tried to outrun the police in that beater - and led them right to our home, because of course the little thing just couldn't "go"). Anyway, I wonder if that may be the direction car ownership will take for awhile - simple utility.
blonderengel
bravo
"This all depends on some sort of resolution to the financial system situation."
Not to mention job losses that ramped up in the 2nd half of 2008.
Soon, they will have no option left..
//reptillian writes:
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients? I noticed that the house stimulus bill would either pay 65% of COBRA or allow the unemployed, regardless of age or financial status, to enroll in medicare.
reptillian | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:42 pm | #//
nova writes:
Jas, CR is a polite kinda guy. I am not.
Your an asshole.
nova | 02.03.09 - 8:24 pm |
Thanks for that. It made me laugh.
Medicare for All ... it will help all our products be more competitive.
mmckinl | 02.03.09 - 8:38 pm | #
Tell me how the Big 3 deal with Canada?
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side. There are 3 retirees for one current worker. This can not survive. Universal health care is not the problem. I understand that if one starts at age 18 and works 30 years then they collect retirement from day one. There is a lot of info the public is not aware or clear on to make a real decision.
So will this encourage car makers to collude and make inferior products that break down sooner?
MC... How many households own 3 cars. My bet it the number is very small.
Bond Girl --
This all depends on some sort of resolution to the financial system situation.
What, you're not a "real business cycle" kind of gal?
The attempted resolution will involve extending sovereign creditworthiness to banks, and then hoping the contagion only flows in one direction. I think.
It certainly promises to be an interesting year.
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients?
YMMV
Those MDs who make lots of money from gold-plated insurance patients may decline a Medicare patient. That is a small minority.
Most MDs in private practice that accept insurance for full payment will accept Medicare.
All MDs associated with Medical Centers with teaching staffs will accept Medicare.
MedicAid (the state programs with Fed support) pays less than Medicare and not MDs will accept MedicAid, although most of the last two classes above will do so, but a lesser fraction of class 2 above.
"UAW workers should have thought about that years ago. "
Do you know many people who demand to be paid less for the good of the economy, society, their employer, the state, or their industry? Auto company executives, for example?
In a centrally planned and regulated economy that I knew a bit about, taxes were extremely low, but so were wages, so that what the state did not collect in direct taxation it appropriated through low wages. The standard of living was low as well. Despite the propaganda, there were large numbers of workers who received even lower wages than those in flagship industries. Society as a whole was fixed in a state of permanent depression and deficit supply.
Did US auto companies make good profits in the era in which they negotiated high wages and benefits?
If so, were high wages the sole cause of a failure to profit in subsequent years?
MC... How many households own 3 cars. My bet it the number is very small.
Um... what? One for mom, one for dad, one for Junior and sis (or maybe one each for Junior and sis)...
Nemo,
Heard about the expression "cutting the gordian knot"
//The attempted resolution will involve extending sovereign creditworthiness to banks, and then hoping the contagion only flows in one direction. I think.
It certainly promises to be an interesting year.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #//
ova: Jas is a Pakistani writes:
blonderengel
bravo
I read "Satanic Verses." In that book, in England, no less, a Pakastani was referred to as a "Paki." I thought the pronunciation might be Pock-ie.
mal... I still bet the overall number is small.
Or Happiness is a warm gun?
The Gordian Knot is a legend associated with Alexander the Great. It is often used as a metaphor for an intractable problem, solved by a bold stroke ("cutting the Gordian knot")
Gordian Knot - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Not in suburbia, I'll bet.
I have to disagree with your assumptions at the end of the post. For sales to increase with homes, people have to be employed and have salaries that will support the mortgage prices. I do agree that it will slow down, but there are so many games being played with laws and hiding assets on the books that we may never see the true numbers.
Second, how can sales in the first chart head south but the number of registered vehicles go up? Does this indicate that something is not right in Denmark (no offense meant). If registration is up but sales are showing down, then there is a major disconnect.
one for dad, one for mom and one up on blocks in the front yard
"Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. "
What will you give in return?
OK... I am completely wrong. 1/3 of US households who own a car have 3.
One-Third of American Households Own Three Vehicles or More - KickingTires
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side. There are 3 retirees for one current worker. This can not survive. Universal health care is not the problem. Economist Moe Howard 3SU
~~~~
They were supposed to invest ...No? Seems all corporations and governments are facing this big question ... But as to health care the answer is much easier ... Medicare for All ...
Yeah Not Irving, that sounds right to me. Thanks for digging up the statistic.
We won't kill you.
//Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. "
What will you give in return?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:52 pm | #//
This should be a lesson to you - it's not just what you say, but it is also how you say it - if you want to be heard. - CR
Wall street learned that lesson years ago, and in spades. They realized it wasn't the facts that were important, it was the presentation that made the sale.
Wall street is full of people that have no morals. They sell shams to people that don't like to think.
The dot.com bubble & the housing bubble provide the proof.
I've learned plenty from both CR AND Jas.
Ignore the presentation. It's reality that counts.
Also, short vanity.
The study found the average American household owns 2.28 vehicles, with 34% owning only one but 35% owning three or more. This continues a trend that has seen the three-plus-cars category grow over the last quarter century. The type of vehicles these multiple-vehicle households own is also important.
They need each other now, they are wrapped in fuses and dynamite.
blonderengel | 02.03.09 - 8:42 pm | #
nice slice of apocalypse. when time presses our age into the rocks it will be a speckles sparkly colorful layer of plastic.
Lets see. If you cut all the autoworkers pay in half for 10 years and put in an account as one lump sum. Then offered it to JPM as their bonus pool for the year - they would laugh and give it to the mailroom.
For CR's rays of sunshine in the season, I'll see you and raise you a shadow of the season:
YouTube -
C
mal... I still bet the overall number is small.
NOT Irving Fisher!
.
Out here on the West Coast, having lots of cars is the norm. One for every member of the family, plus a big truck to haul the RV, and a "field car" parked in the back yard, "cause it still runs good."
The problem is the deals with the UAW where made years ago with no consideration of business down side.
Then we might as well indict the whole idea of the American middle class, because those UAW deals MADE the American middle class (and other blue-collar union deals).
There is such a thing as blocs of workers being too powerful. But I'm not sure what was supposed to curb the demands. As Pavel said, when do people ever ask for less money?
Angry,
"They sell" in my mind equates to questionable morals... doesn't matter what industry.
"Also, short vanity."
Vanity: The Grand Illusion.
TPC writes:
On the other hand, I think Obama is off to a horrible start....
Obama is embarrassing himself.
Did US auto companies make good profits in the era in which they negotiated high wages and benefits?
If so, were high wages the sole cause of a failure to profit in subsequent years?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #
No matter what you say about yesterdays deals on either side, this is today not yesterday. They continue on the course they are on their gone. The other way is Ford and GM use their world wide operations and use rebaged import product in NA. Take your pick either one the UAW is in big trouble. The need to compete on the same leave as the import US operation has to happen. An inconvenient reality.
scone... I am on the west coast
lucifer writes:
We won't kill you.
//Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. "
What will you give in return?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:52 pm |
.
Score one for the dark side. Nothing but net.
Was at the Vet today they had a dog in there named Obama King .I hope he lives up to the hype....
Sunshine of your love.
Walking on Sunshine. Katrina and the Waves. Saw them live and they were one of the best live shows I have seen.
I wonder if people were writing about possible rays of sunshine in 1932? I am sure they were.
Just hope no one decides to open Tammerlames tomb again.
Never mind the dog being named after Obama, what about all the streets, roads and kids? They also just named some Arctic research outpost "Station Obama" or something. Sheez. Didn't anyone ever tell them never to name something after a living person?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. "
What will you give in return?
Ask not what your bonds can do for you, but ask what you can do for your bonds -- treasuries.
NOT Irving Fisher! writes:
scone... I am on the west coast
.
Down in Cali or up here in the NW? Just curious.
joe shmoe writes:
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
Do you think he would have said he screwed up of there was not such an uproar about it? Hell no. The fact that he let Geithner go through speaks volumes about his character.
Bush part deaux.
scone,
but seriously.. money is not real. it is our belief in the system that make it real.
In a post-industrial society, the majority of the population have useless jobs anyway, and the minority with useless jobs have them to service the majority with useless jobs.
"Then we might as well indict the whole idea of the American middle class, because those UAW deals MADE the American middle class (and other blue-collar union deals)."
Isn't it obvious? Do you want to fire your customers and then hope that someone else pays them enough to buy what you produce?
These paradoxes happen in societies addicted to class warfare. Why do you think fascism had a run in the 30s? It promised an end to the paradoxes.
Didn't anyone ever tell them never to name something after a living person?
mal | 02.03.09 - 9:00 pm |
Reagan National Airport...
The Ronald Reagan Center...
The Petrified Nancy Reagan Forest of Screams...
As Pavel said, when do people ever ask for less money?
mal | 02.03.09 - 8:55 pm | #
Yes they do and many are about to humble themselves and step down in jobs and wages and become happy with less. This has happened many times before.
I have friends who are retired from GM and will get clobbered in this deal. I have no gain in this. I even will lose my common stock if the BK. I am thinking of the best in the long run.
Many here (and elsewhere) decry the arrogance and sense of entitlement of the plutocratic class - especially the financial community. They say they have too much power and control the government.
At the same time these anti-plutocratic folks say that unions brought down the American enterprise - especially the car companies.
The plutocrats didn't creat the Post WWII middle class because they wanted to be generous and share wealth. They were forced to share by the unions demanding their share. And they got it, but not at the expense of the plutocrats. Productivity and full employment increased overall wealth. (See Clinton era properity).
Unions are now less than 15% of workers, and they little power overall in the economy - the corp. giants dominate the political process.
Attacking the weak unions doesn't fix the corporate control of society.
Why do you say "addicted to class warfare" as if exploitation never actually happens?
I can just picture the new prison inmate in 25 years. 1 in 5 will be named Obama
In an OC beach town. I think my problem is I can't imagine where in the hell anyone parks 3 cars. Thinking back to when I was in TX it makes a lot more sense.
There once was a man named Jas
He was what you'd call an ass
"You're dopes!" he would boast
As such, he was ignored by most
The others he simply gave gas....
"They sell" in my mind equates to questionable morals... doesn't matter what industry.
Most sales aren't shams though. McDonalds, Ford, GM, Intel, Dell, Apple,, etc.
Only on wall street do they split zero into +2 & -2 and claim they add value. The reality is wall street gets the +2 and the "investor" gets -2.
lucifer writes:
We won't kill you.
//Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Just give us rent vouchers, groceries and walking around money. "
What will you give in return?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:52 pm |
.
Score one for the dark side. Nothing but net.
Let them eat compactified mortgage backed security certificate cakes.
THE TEST BEGINS - NOW (spoken)
I thought I was smart - I thought I was right
I thought it better not to fight - I thought there was a
Virtue in always being cool - so when it came time to
Fight I thought I'll just step aside and that the time would
Prove you wrong and that you would be the fool -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
Oh to fight is to defend if it's not
Now than tell me when would be the time that you would stand up
And be a man - for to lose I could accept but to surrender
I just wept and regretted this moment - oh that I - I
Was the fool
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
Cause I'm a man not a boy and there are things
You can't avoid you have to face them when you're not prepared
To face them -
If I could I would but you're with him now it'd do no good
I should have fought him but instead I let him - I let
Him take it -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
THE TEST IS OVER - NOW (spoken)
Some Flaming Lips
THE TEST BEGINS - NOW (spoken)
I thought I was smart - I thought I was right
I thought it better not to fight - I thought there was a
Virtue in always being cool - so when it came time to
Fight I thought I'll just step aside and that the time would
Prove you wrong and that you would be the fool -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
Oh to fight is to defend if it's not
Now than tell me when would be the time that you would stand up
And be a man - for to lose I could accept but to surrender
I just wept and regretted this moment - oh that I - I
Was the fool
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
Cause I'm a man not a boy and there are things
You can't avoid you have to face them when you're not prepared
To face them -
If I could I would but you're with him now it'd do no good
I should have fought him but instead I let him - I let
Him take it -
I don't know where the sun beams end and the star
Lights begins it's all a mystery
And I don't know how a man decides what right for his
Own life - it's all a mystery
THE TEST IS OVER - NOW (spoken)
Some Flaming Lips
Didn't anyone ever tell them never to name something after a living person?
mal | 02.03.09 - 9:00 pm |
USS George HW Bush. Complete with whaleboat Mission Accomplished.
In a post-industrial society, the majority of the population have useless jobs anyway, and the minority with useless jobs have them to service the majority with useless jobs.
lucifer
.
Well, 'useless' is in the eye of the beholder. That starts getting into anthropology.
.
Anyway, that's not why your dialogue with Pavel is funny.
You get zombie employees for 60 days, if they bother showing up.
bearl
I was just informed they receive full salary for three months, and need not show up, in addition to severance.
Still Jas eludes the bear in the room.
Bonds=certificates of confiscation
There is really no debate, we will print until we find out the limit to which we actually start crowding out private investment.
In this atmosphere, that might be a couple of years, but then, well, the dollar is going to look like the Zimdollar.
Yes, the Zimdollar.
Nothing like printing until you say uncle.
Now, where is my 4% 30 year refi?
I can hardly wait.
Someday this war's gonna end...
To me, a 'drag' on GDP is maximized at the bottom, not lessened. The rate of decline levels off, but the drag continues until the industry returns to a higher level - which could be many years.
Sorry for the double post - I blame haloscan instead of operator error.
doctors here in the former U.S. of W charge three prices. the medicaid price, the insurance company price and the uninsured cash price.
the uninsured price is the highest. this price discrimination is at the root of the immorality in our health care cartel. if you are caught in the pre-existing condition catch-22 you pay the most.
nearly half of all bankruptcies are related to crushing medical bills. imagine what a wave of optimism and prosperity that would cleanse this nation if people did not fear for dying in the streets after (inevitably) falling ill. imagine if the tarp bankster bonus bucks had been instead directed at healing our people.
it is impossible to have a free market without transparent pricing, as in prices posted front and center on a menu, not hidden.
secret pricing for health care has got to be one of the most evil abominations of our free market experiment with health care.
For the pro union folks. Why has the union not stepped up and bought Chrysler? Seems they are giving it away to Fist? What would be wrong with the UAW owning shares for proceeds in a car company?
Angry,
Don't kid yourself. The games large companies play with pricing to create the appearance of "value" is shocking... and actually I was thinking more in line with the actual person selling the product.
It's not economic hard times that really worry me - although perhaps I should worry more. Social disintegration worries me, corruption and other forms of law breaking and indifference. Without solidarity we will have a hard time surviving as a democracy.
Sauve qui peut is the motto of a dying culture.
"Looking for the Sun"
Present - Sol
mal writes:
I also have to say that I see a lot of animosity directed at auto workers simply because they're auto workers; yet when you contemplate the sheer number of soon-to-be worthless skill sets that are getting laid off en masse lately... people whose jobs rest upon three and four layers of the corporate food chain... I mean, come on: "SEO Coordinators"? whose jobs apparently revolve around sticking the right keywords into the right web pages?
And it took, what, $100,000 to properly "educate" these "skilled" workers? That's waste.
You need to get with the new millenium--times are changing. SEO is not a waste, it is money extremely well spent.
Unions are now less than 15% of workers, and they little power overall in the economy - the corp. giants dominate the political process.
That is why the growth area for unions have been in government. We seem to have politicians who can't say no, especially when they grease they campaign funds.
I recomend decimation.. publicly torture and kill the top 10% of "politically active" doctors and their families.
And have laws allowing for summary execution of doctors who intentionally screw up later + increase number of medical seats.
//otishertz writes:
doctors here in the former U.S. of W charge three prices. the medicaid price, the insurance company price and the uninsured cash price.//
It must have been the eighties. I don't remember when. But there was a debate about moving to a "services economy." Some people asked, "What will we do? Will we all be able to make a living doing each other's laundry?" Then some wag saved the day by saying, "No! Some people will flip burgers."
So, here we are.
"I take responsibility for this mistake," he told Fox News.'"
He never should have nominated the putz in the first place. Daschle has been sucking at the teat of the health insurance industry for years and this is the guy that Obama picks to fix health care? Geithner redux. Change we can believe in? Not.
"Why do you say "addicted to class warfare" as if exploitation never actually happens?"
Of course exploitation happens. I should apologize for not realizing that the phrase 'class warfare' is a code term used by anti-labor voices. I never meant it that way.
.
Mr. Mortgage on CNBC...
Mr Mortgage CNBC 2-3 on Housing & Shadow Inventory
.
SEO is not a waste, it is money extremely well spent.
Yes, but should it cost $100,000 to train someone to do it? It doesn't seem terribly difficult to do.
Sol writes:
"Looking for the Sun"
Present - Sol
.
Hey, I've been meaning to ask you, whats up with the lack of sunspots? Haven't seen the aurora in a long time.
It's not economic hard times that really worry me - although perhaps I should worry more. Social disintegration worries me, corruption and other forms of law breaking and indifference. Without solidarity we will have a hard time surviving as a democracy.
Sauve qui peut is the motto of a dying culture.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 9:08 pm | #
We agree on this one. Greed has been instilled as the sign of success and anybody who takes the ten year overnight success is a dope.
how can anyone in good conscience charge two human beings with the same ailment different prices? and how can anyone charge the least able to pay (the uninsured) the most?
answer: they have no conscience.
anyone else ever notice that the quoted number of uninsured is always 40 million no matter how many millions are laid off or lose their benefits?
seems like ten years at 40 million.
YouTube -
Thieves, thieves and liars, murderers
Hypocrites and bastards [in laughter]
Hey thanks for nothing!
Morals in the dust
Two-faced bastards and syncophants
No trust
Thieves! liar!
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of their mouth do you suppose that it came?
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of the grass is greener?
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Youre like a great big fucking gun,
Just waiting to get squeezed!
Breathe, forfeit erection!
Toxical injection
Geriatric fuck-fest
We still believe in lies
"Hey, I've been meaning to ask you, whats up with the lack of sunspots?"
They should be back in about 2012.
"Hey, I've been meaning to ask you, whats up with the lack of sunspots? Haven't seen the aurora in a long time."
Tis the season of the low profile, lol.
I find that "class warfare" is a mentality more often adopted by the college-edumacated. As if getting drunk four nights a week, shuffling your way to big lecture sections in your jammies and working at unpaid internships means you're somehow more enlightened than 50-year-old guys working in a factory. (and hence, more fit to rule)
Mike in Long Island - here's the real Test:
YouTube - Chemical Brothers ft Richard Ashcroft - The Test
Enjoy.
C
The sun, like all of reality, does not care about human theories and predictions
//They should be back in about 2012.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 9:15 pm | #//
JimPortlandOR writes:
Do doctors readily accept medicare patients?
YMMV
Those MDs who make lots of money from gold-plated insurance patients may decline a Medicare patient. That is a small minority.
Most MDs in private practice that accept insurance for full payment will accept Medicare.
All MDs associated with Medical Centers with teaching staffs will accept Medicare.
MedicAid (the state programs with Fed support) pays less than Medicare and not MDs will accept MedicAid, although most of the last two classes above will do so, but a lesser fraction of class 2 above.
JimPortlandOR | 02.03.09 - 8:48 pm | #
Anyone who is 50 or older should be ok if we go to a Medicare type of socialized medicine.
Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:
I feel bad for the younger ones.
That was half a joke about 2012. But really, solar activity cycles have been timed, and the spots should be returning over the next few years.
Pavel Chichikov
By the way This year I am doubling my garden and the excess is going to the seniors center.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate voted Tuesday to give a tax break to new car buyers, setting aside bipartisan concerns over the size of an economic stimulus bill with a price tag approaching $900 billion.
The 71-26 vote came as President Barack Obama said he lies awake nights worrying about the economy, and signaled opposition to congressional attempts to insert ''buy American'' provisions into the legislation.
FDR: "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself..."
Obama: worried.
how can anyone in good conscience charge two human beings with the same ailment different prices?
This is the entire rationale behind HMOs and insurance plans that negotiate with hospitals for discounted rates. If they don't get their rate, the HMOs and insurance companies send their patients elsewhere. Individuals showing up via the ER aren't offered those rates, but they can usually get them if they negotiate with the hospital.
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
//Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly://
Let the f**kers find other professions, maybe investment banking or real estate!
//1. Obviously the money will nowhere near compensate the amount of time spent in training.//
No.. they become physicians because they have an unfulfilled god complex.
//2. Many people become physicians because they want to be in control of their own destiny.//
I agree, but it could be reformed. //3. The Medicare system is very poorly run as it is. When it gets bigger these problems will be magnified.//
Don't feel bad, once they have done lynching people like you, it won't matter
//I feel bad for the younger ones.//
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs. I can't help it, I find class warriors really tedious and simple.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
That was half a joke about 2012.
Do jokes have half-lifes?
mal writes:
SEO is not a waste, it is money extremely well spent.
Yes, but should it cost $100,000 to train someone to do it? It doesn't seem terribly difficult to do.
mal | 02.03.09 - 9:13 pm | #
I guess it depends on how well trained you want the person to be who will make you millions:)
"By the way This year I am doubling my garden and the excess is going to the seniors center."
That's great!
California became the lowest rated U.S. state as Standard & Poors cut its general obligation bonds one grade because Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers have failed to close a record budget deficit.
Californias $46 billion of full-faith-and-credit debt was lowered to A, the sixth-highest of 10 investment grades, from A+, the New York-based rating firm said in a release.
The downgrade by S&P puts California, the most populous state and largest tax-exempt borrower, below the level it shared with Louisiana. Moodys Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have said they may cut California from A1 and A+, respectively, their fifth-highest grades.
The lowered rating reflects our view of the states inability to reach an agreement on a mid-year budget revision and its rapidly eroding cash position, Gabriel Petek, an S&P analyst in San Francisco, said in the release.
Bond Girl writes:
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs. I can't help it, I find class warriors really tedious and simple.
The real bandits -- or I should say those that made out like bandits -- are those that sold real estate at the peak.
"Do jokes have half-lifes?"
Very long ones. Traveling salesman jokes go back to the paleolithic, and involved bead and flint tool salesmen.
V-Recovery Dance Steps,
These are the same f**kers who rated MBSes based on Alt-A ARMs as AAA.. Need I say more?
hey, is there a grandfather clause on that tax break? Im feeling like more and more of a fool with each passing day. Didnt buy a house, bought the car at the wrong time, cant get the damn stimulus check...frak me.
There were plenty of false bottoms in the First Great Depression too.
I like the false bottom trunks, with treasure underneath. Woops, wrong forum.
I think some of this reasoning on car purchases is optimistic. I have no numbers, but here's my logic:
There's people who trade in their cars every few years and buy/lease new ones. Their cars AREN'T worn out, generally -- they've just lost that new car smell.
Other people, lower on the socioeconomic ladder (let's call them 'lower middle class', since everyone in America is middle class) buy newer used cars when their older used cars wear out.
Now there's some people, it is true, who buy new and drive to end-of-life. But I think they're a small minority.
The problem, in a scenario where the people who buy new cars don't really have to, and the people who need replacement cars can't qualify for new cars, is that there is nothing stopping the upper-middles from just keeping their cars an extra 6-12 months on average. This could go on for a long time. Who'd be screwed? The lower-middles, and the car companies.
looks they want to get rid of MM funds...
poster formerly known as nitpi | 02.03.09 - 8:10 pm | #
I would describe it differently: "they are finally going to force money market funds to mark-to-market like all over mutual funds."
Bond Girl writes:
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs.
~~~~
The Bankers were supposed to be the adults. They had a fiduciary duty to share holders, bond holders and tax payers to be prudent.
Instead they lined their pockets with bonus money.
"The downgrade by S&P puts California, the most populous state and largest tax-exempt borrower, below the level it shared with Louisiana."
This is getting serious, and maybe more serious than we give it credit for - in a manner of speaking.
looks they want to get rid of MM funds...
poster formerly known as nitpi | 02.03.09 - 8:10 pm | #
I would describe it differently: "they are finally going to force money market funds to mark-to-market like all over mutual funds."
We already dun gave the credit, paw! That's why we're in the mess we're in. Gaddblummit!
mal writes:
I find that "class warfare" is a mentality more often adopted by the college-edumacated. As if getting drunk four nights a week, shuffling your way to big lecture sections in your jammies and working at unpaid internships means you're somehow more enlightened than 50-year-old guys working in a factory. (and hence, more fit to rule)
mal | 02.03.09 - 9:16 pm | #
You obvioulsly didn't go to college... if you had you would know getting drunk 7 days a week and attending classes a couple of days a week are standard.
lucifer writes:
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
Wrong, my step-daughter is in med school. She is remarkably intelligent as well as sweet and caring as they come. She understands that she will not be making any money but does not care. She just wants to help people.
Sorry about the double post.
haloscan
Bond Girl writes:
It is amazing to me how much the current crisis has been framed by Wall Street greed and hardly anyone ever looks to the suburbs.
~~~
the Bankers were supposed to be the adults. They had a fiducuary duty to share holders, bond holders and tax payers.
Instead they lined their pockets with bonus money ...
I think the failed appointments are a serious set-back. At least he apologized, but business as usual is obviously not going to get us out of this predicament.
PSgirl,
If that is true, she is in the minority.
Ok, here's a take on Miracle Sun...
YouTube - Don McGlashan - Miracle Sun
C
Here's another for you:
New York state may run out of cash in March
New York May Run Out of Cash by March Amid $1.6 Billion Gap - Bloomberg.com
I'm sure the states will get money soon enough.
Miracle Sun? Is that some new bio-solar start-up? Where can we buy shares?
How many lost jobs does that translate into?
//S&P forecasts 200 defaults
By Anousha Sakoui in London
Published: February 2 2009 17:46 | Last updated: February 2 2009 17:46
About 200 US junk-rated companies are likely to default this year, according to Standard & Poors, affecting almost $350bn worth of debt and adding impetus to alternatives to bankruptcy, such as distressed debt exchanges.//
Counterpointer,
Nice. You have lots of good music links. I wish I had been bookmarking them all along. I know there's a few that I was meaning to buy and I can't remember them now.
Have you listened to The Black Keys
?
Or for something a little more offbeat, how about Dengue Fever Cambodian pop from the 60's reborn...
Hint.. the best and brightest (most competent) have been pushed out of medicine a long time ago. It is the brassy shysters and hucksters who get into medical schools.
I don't believe that's true, or at least I hope it's not true for all of us. Relative pay in medicine has been static for a long time, and the money-driven guys have increasingly tended to go into other fields where you get to sleep in your own bed every night. So in that respect, physician quality seems to have improved lately. However, your comment about the God complex is well taken. Beware the doc with the vanity plate....
Sauve qui peut* is the motto of a dying culture.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 9:08 pm | #
We are like birds who decide to fly in a straight line because we feel it will be more equal. The belief that we can create and control money is destroying us.
"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency"
From Keynes On Inflation
Commanding Heights : Keynes on Inflation | on PBS
We need a lodestone.
The deflation will end sometime in late 2010. Housing prices still have a long, long way to fall. The government will have wasted trillions of dollars during that time(Socialism doesn't work). Then we can look forward to holocaust inflation. We'll look back at 2008 as the good old days.
One of my favorite jokes:
How many people work in the Federal Government?
About 20%.
I feel bad for the younger ones.
PSgirl | 02.03.09 - 9:18 pm | #
And why do you think there are still doctors in Europe? BTW, I prefer the European system and its quality of care by miles to the U.S. one and I have extensive personal experience in both.
Tis the season of the low profile, lol.
Sol
.
Certainly is in my latitude. And with no clouds lately, I'm actually getting solar gain. Energy bill should be lower this month.
YouTube -
Been Down So Long
Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon and set me free
I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't you break your lock and key
I said, warden, warden, warden
Won't ya break your lock and key
Yeah, come along here, mister
C'mon and let the poor boy be
Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
Baby, baby, baby
Won't you get down on your knees
C'mon little darlin'
C'mon and give your love to me, oh yeah
Well, I've been down so Goddamn long
That it looks like up to me
Well, I've been down so very damn long
That it looks like up to me
Yeah, why don't one you people
C'mon, c'mon, c'mon and set me free
mattdog,
Listen to premed chatter. It is about volunteering, writing socially conscious essays and giving politically correct answers to interviewer questions.
The Markopolos testimony gives me the creeps.
New Thread: Update: Tanta Scholarship Fund ( 1 comments )
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Bond Girl writes:
I'm sure the states will get money soon enough.
My theory is that the coming "Obama solutions" and the anticipation of them will cause the markets to "look like" a recovery is underway.
Sometimes my theories don't work out, but I sure wouldn't go short for awhile.
I was a big obama supporter... and I really do like some of the appointments... geithner was disappointing.. but daschle dropping out is a good sign.
Remember that Bush had his cabinet packed with criminals for 8 years and wouldn't make anyone step aside no matter how awful or incompetent.. he also never apologized for anything.. not even torturing children to death
Obama has been president for what.. 2 fucking weeks and people want to crucify him?
He's already accomplished more than Bush did in 8 damn years.
Your comment would apply, I believe, to the whole college application process. That doesn't mean all undergraduates are schmucks.
counterpointer,
chemical brothers antidote to my last post
The Golden Path
YouTube -
By the way This year I am doubling my garden and the excess is going to the seniors center.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU
why the senior center? why not the childrens center? the seniors are terminal. at least you can feed well the new stock.
I'll never forget the lesson's in gardening in my Fourth Grade class, seabreze elemantary, jax beach florida...MR andrews... we had a Huge garden. they just don't do that very often nowadays. It was a Public school
"why the senior center? why not the childrens center? the seniors are terminal. at least you can feed well the new stock."
Times aren't that bad.
Gotta run off to the hospital. G'night.
PS girl apologist
"Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:"
bite my ass. i'd rather people have average ongoing preventative care by average people instead of DEATH CARE from the expensive arrogant self proclaimed geniuses who can't even tell you how much they charge for their ten or so services.
i'd rather people had basic ongoing care before they got sick thenmaybe they wouldn't need to surrender their life savings to some genius
...in a bentley with his fourth wife sitting there, watching her diamond glint in the sun... slurping a latte, eyes under designer shades fixed firmly above the homeless at her feet.
secret pricing
secret pricing
secret pricing
Reading the comments, it would seem logical that the best strategy to get another job for those unemployed in these downturns is 1) refuse employer health care (if offered) and 2) demand less pay for the job than the employer is offering.
This'd solve the US employment problem quickly IMO.
We need songs like this:
YouTube - Steeleye Span - Rogues in a nation
The problem with the idea that new car sales will bottom out is it doesn't deal with the underlying problem: affordability. You will notice that the graph begins sloping up at least since Jan 2000. A lot of car sales are made by putting car buyers further and further into debt. 60 month loans, 72 month loans, rolling the underwater part of the previous car loan into the new car loan. Now in the credit crunch all those leases and sub-prime buyers can't get qualified even if they wanted to buy the car.
Assuming we won't get back to the crazy lending standards, a lot of Americans are going to get introduced to public transportation, biking or walking.
why the senior center? why not the childrens center? the seniors are terminal. at least you can feed well the new stock.
I'll never forget the lesson's in gardening in my Fourth Grade class, seabreze elemantary, jax beach florida...MR andrews... we had a Huge garden. they just don't do that very often nowadays. It was a Public school
confused | 02.03.09 - 9:41 pm | #
Why the seniors center? I am a pretty hard ball guy. Feeding kids will only free up public money for the idiot parents to piss away riding on the kids back. Schools provide breakfast and lunch and OB plans will fund after school snacks. In my town the kids even get summer meals. The seniors whether they did good with their lives or not we can't throw them back into the volcano. The young ones need it badly. We take dogs away from owners who abuse them less then some of the so called parents do their kids. Just my view. You going to grow food and feed the kids?
Anonymous writes:
joe shmoe writes:
It has taken Obama two weeks to say something that George W. Bush couldn't manage to say in eight years: "I screwed up." This is change we can really believe in.
Do you think he would have said he screwed up of there was not such an uproar about it? Hell no. The fact that he let Geithner go through speaks volumes about his character.
Bush part deaux.
Anonymous | 02.03.09 - 9:01 pm
+10
otihertz - this is flaming lips remixed, no?
Now THAT'S change I can believe in.
C
Couldn't people replace their aging cars with existing used cars? NO GDP growth from autos if so. Same for new houses.
"Couldn't people replace their aging cars with existing used cars? NO GDP growth from autos if so. Same for new houses."
One might even think that would be a wise course of action
You know... all these things would be a positive thing if they could have been introduced gradually... but unfortunately we are dealing with humans.. they never get it until it's too late
there are still neo-con rush-bots who think we should cut taxes and continue massive defense spending
Re: These are the same f**kers who rated MBSes based on Alt-A ARMs as AAA..
That was so fucking long ago, and who gives a crap now?
We need songs like this:
YouTube -
pavel that hurt my ears,
is that gregorian chant on weed?
Wow, just read the Markopolus PDF. I bet he hates Obama's lack of character and morality.
I think Markopolus is the kind of guy we need for Treasury Secretary.
at least CRbot didnt claim "first" on the Scholarship fund thread.
well played cyborg.
"Grade class, seabreze elemantary, jax beach florida.."
confused | 02.03.09 - 9:41 pm | #
confused ever seen the movie Mule Skinner Blues?
now that's florid-duh!
RE writes:
And why do you think there are still doctors in Europe? BTW, I prefer the European system and its quality of care by miles to the U.S. one and I have extensive personal experience in both.
RE | 02.03.09 - 9:35 pm | #
The European way of life is much different than life in the US--more vacation, fewer hours, etc... IMO, this is the reason that they have better health outcomes. Has nothing to do with the "quality" of socialized medicine.
goodnite
otishertz writes:
PS girl apologist
"Those under 50 good luck when you get older because the best and brightest will no longer be going into medicine for several reasons that I can think of quickly:"
bite my ass. i'd rather people have average ongoing preventative care by average people instead of DEATH CARE from the expensive arrogant self proclaimed geniuses who can't even tell you how much they charge for their ten or so services.
That is good, because that is what you will get. Average care.
Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Vanity: The Grand Illusion.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:56 pm |
What a straight line, and no link?
All the anonymous people who make retarded comments.. just put a name in so we can ignore you.. please!
The Beatles - Revolution
YouTube - The Beatles - Revolution (STEREO)
Down to one pickumup truck now. Not counting the two under blue tarps in the back forty. Let the grandkids use those for target practice. Figure it will do em good when the ballon goes up in the cities.
On the Treasury and Bernanke, how many of us have created charts & graphs showing the issuance that needs to be rolled? I know Energy Econ, myself, maybe Nemo... anyone else?
I think Markopolus is the kind of guy we need for Treasury Secretary.
Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer.
Anonymous | 02.03.09 - 10:09 pm | #
nice job missing the point, docster.
Jas,
Do you remember back about a year or so ago when I started IAMJasJain?
Do I have to crank that up again?
What is it with you? A new year starts and you go nutso times ten.
"It is the morality, stupid!" No, no, Jas Boy, it's the megalomania, son, it's the megalomani.
i can not imagine most of the docsters i have known (dozens and dozens) running a real business or growing a callous on their pinky.
"Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer."
That's actually the kind of thinking that got us into this mess...... Rare diseases and cancers aren't the problem... the commmon health issues that make up 95% of what our healthcare system should deal with are the problem
Detroit sees sunshine too...
In a way the Madoff affair scares me more than the bank and insurance company failures. The latter might be ascribed to bad judgment, the logic of the market and lapses in ethics. There may be more to it, but we don't know that as yet.
The former suggests some kind of disease - a disintegration.
It's very worrisome. Even cleaning up after Madoff could inflict great damage. That's how bad it is.
otishertz writes:
i can not imagine most of the docsters i have known (dozens and dozens) running a real business or growing a callous on their pinky.
otishertz | 02.03.09 - 10:16 pm | #
That is because they are inclined to be scientists, not CEOs or lumberjacks.
Additionally, most have absolutely no social skills.
The Markopolos testimony gives me the creeps.
Pavel Chichikov
Really, why? I find it encouraging that he had the integrity and courage to go forward with his investigation, despite the obvious danger. And, even better, he had 4 volunteers.
I think that's something to cheer.
Yep, quite like this:
YouTube - The Black Keys- thickfreakness (Live TV)
C
Osama bin Paulson writes:
"Talk to me again when you have some rare disease or cancer."
That's actually the kind of thinking that got us into this mess...... Rare diseases and cancers aren't the problem... the commmon health issues that make up 95% of what our healthcare system should deal with are the problem
Uh, no. The problem is the American way of life. Overeating, no exercise and stress.
Otis/PSgirl - I married one of them. Not sure what that says about me...
"Uh, no. The problem is the American way of life. Overeating, no exercise and stress."
That's also a problem..
But the lack of prevantative care is just as important
"Really, why? I find it encouraging that he had the integrity and courage to go forward with his investigation, despite the obvious danger. And, even better, he had 4 volunteers.
I think that's something to cheer."
You misunderstood me. Please see my comment @ 10.23
Mr. Sparkle, doesn;t make you a bad person. So did I, but I ditched him.
"But wait ... we all know this cliff diving will stop sometime, and probably not at zero."
Of course it won't go to zero. In fact these indicators will soon turn around quickly, because we have elected the "right" people (those with a 'D' after their name). The messiah has come to save us all. If only we had listened to the prophet Gore in 2000 the NASDAQ would have remained above 5k and would likely be around 7k right now.
Some of them have social skills. Then again, perhaps it's just the specialty.
How many people work in the Federal Government?
About 20%.
Dobby | 02.03.09 - 9:35 pm | #
I worked as an environmental engineer at an air force base several years ago. I never saw so many self-important, well paid, egotistical, non-productive group of folks - civilian and military - in my life. Waste, fraud and abuse summed it up. Taking travel duty (TDY) to exotic places not because it was necessary, but because they could. The military folks made sure they had a job lined up with one of the consultants, who they steered many expensive projects to, once they retired. Sickening.
"Of course it won't go to zero."
Nothing goes to zero. Societies may assume a different state, undergo a phase transition.
Anyone who wants socialized medicine needs to read the Markopolus PDF.
What you got with the SEC you will get with medicine. It is frightening.
A lot depends on Obama and his administration getting a grip. A lot.
He better hurry up.
over at nakedcapitalism.
"
You can't say anything complicated or nuanced in 140 characters. I am sure readers will provide some cute counterexamples, but try explaining Plato's cave in those confines. Can't be done. You might allude to it, but you could not present it to someone who didn't know about it already. And Twitter encourages people to accept a medium that severely constrains communication, and calls a defect a virtue.
Marshall McLuhan was right. "
Twitter, Communication, and My Intermittent Inner Luddite « naked capitalism
"It is frightening."
Yes. And they will fight back.
"He better hurry up."
Yes.
the medium is the massage
we are blinded by our tools.
it is only a matter of time before hospitals all over go bankrupt.
bloated debt puppies.
serves them right with their armed guards in the emergency rooms.
IMO, this is the reason that they have better health outcomes. Has nothing to do with the "quality" of socialized medicine.
Anonymous | 02.03.09 - 10:05 pm | #
I said that I prefer their quality of care by miles as per personal experience. This is not a theoretical construct.
Carnap, actually the fleet is getting old. The median age was a record 9.2 years in 2007, and the situation has to have gotten worse.
best wishes.
Jas, quit being a pain with CR. Simple statements of facts without invective -- 'clueless' -- are appropriate.
I'm with A-; registered vehicles per household are going to be plunging.
Just as household size will be growing.
No rays of sunshine there, CR. Just hints of light from the incoming freight train.
mmckinl writes:
But housing starts cannot go negative -- so true, so true.
What else can be said? Happy new year?
reptillian
~~~~~
They plowed under crops during the Great Depression.
It would be just like the banksters to bull doze tens of thousands of homes ....
Cities are already doing this, the cost of maintaining streets, water and sewage make it cheaper to bull doze whole blocks.
I have thought that it would come to this only in a mad max scenario, where local and state officials were pleading with Washington for air-strikes.
Blodget says the rate of decline in home prices finally appears to have peaked.
The rate of decline of a man falling from a building peaks at 120mph.
Jas - will you apologize for your bond call when yields keep rising?
Look at the good side: at least those UAW dumbasses will lose their jobs and rejoin the real world.
We are in the process of moving from a suburban rental house (70 miles from work) to an urban apartment 2 miles (walking distance) from my job.
We will go from two cars to one.
Am I hurting the economy?
Obama's mea culpa ?
This is going to change all the neoliberal appointments he has already made?
Get real ...
to give you a personal perspective about this issue, I have a 1998 Honda Civic DX, with about 145,000 miles
it has no defects, has had no major repairs, and runs close to brand new, and I service it promptly according to the manual
I have no intention of replacing it until it begins to have mechanical problems, or around 220,000 miles, when I would then consider buying a more environmentally friendly vehicle
my wife has a 1998 Jeep Cherokee, she test drives a car every now and then, and professes to want a new one, but then, afterwards, says, well, I think I'll just wait
why would we rush to replace to fully paid, fully operational vehicles???
I suspect a lot of people think like this now
Speed writes:
Blodget says the rate of decline in home prices finally appears to have peaked.
The rate of decline of a man falling from a building peaks at 120mph.
Let's hear it for terminal velocity. Gravity works!
OT, but it looks they want to get rid of MM funds...
Money-market reform proposals could directly hit fund investors FundWatch - MarketWatch
Jas - will you apologize for your bond call when yields keep rising?
crispy&cole
10's up 5%, 20's up 2.5%. I think the bond market is getting ready to call Ben's bluff
If tens of thousands of UAW workers lose good-paying jobs, will that increase consumer spending? It might not hurt too much if there were other good jobs waiting for them. Are there?
Am I hurting the economy
Terrorist saver
Blodget says the rate of decline in home prices finally appears to have peaked
That would be the inflection point, i.e. about the halfway point.
I suspect Blodget is wrong. The previous curve was based on the housing over-build and has little input from the collapse that started in September.
I look for a new inflection point, perhaps year from now.
Off to my singles deal. I'm unmotivated tonight but it's better than nothing.
.
,i>They plowed under crops during the Great Depression.
I have seen this a few times recently. They were plowing under crops here in California last summer -- it was with mellons. The cost of picking and distribution exceeded market prices. Just like in the GD, giving them away would depress prices even more.
The car sales data needs to be calibrated to the total population. In 1982 the population was lower, so matching that sales level now, when we have many more people, means the situation is much worse.
....well, I've eaten enough crow over the years to know what it tastes like.....apparently The President and I have THAT much in common.
Be American, Buy American!
I have thought that it would come to this only in a mad max scenario, where local and state officials were pleading with Washington for air-strikes.
reptillian
~~~~~
Look for "blighted" areas to be condemned and demolished ... especially around valuable RE ...
McCain lost. Rush will not become Secretary of State.
"The rate of decline of a man falling from a building peaks at 120mph."
Acceleration?
\tBlodget says the rate of decline in home prices finally appears to have peaked.
Speed | 02.03.09 - 8:07 pm | #
Second derivative has changed sign. BFD to henry.
(The data are noisy enough, so the first derivative is more noisy, and the second moreso.)
Obama's admission of error is rare for someone with that much power, and a sign of sanity, which is also....
Blodget? People still care what he has to say?
You're kidding, right?
PSA: The artist formerly known as 'CR' is hereby and henceforth known as 'Little Miss Sunshine'.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled cliff dive.
LMAO........
CRBOT beat Nemo and posted first.
The irony is cracking me up
A Wall Street Story? This is from the last thread but as it seems some of the better minds are here/returned, let me propose not perhaps a story, but a fantasy?
Bloomberg the news corp requests bank/TARP info via FOIA. Still doesn't have it. Markopolos set to testify - with the goods indicting a lot of the players and structure. Does Bloomberg the man stand to benefit (indirectly) in his quest for Mayor/Governor if his news org finally stands up and reports this? Totally blows the roof off and brings the whole Street culture down in a way Spitzer couldn't even imagine?
Just curious what better minds think of the plausibility level. Thanks!
Erm, CR, "vehicle sales have fallen too far"? And there should be a reversion to mean based on the same kind of loose / predatory lending standards of the last several years, when the consumer is tapped out, afraid of losing their job, with tough mortgage conditions and nasty CC resets hitting the balance sheet, and the 401k in the toilet?
Hooomama. Having never myself bought a new car, that really sounds like a recipe for buying at premium a gleaming hunk of steel that does precisely what my current aging land-crab does.
I just don't think so.
C
Can you dumb that down a bit Jas? It's been a long day.
Blodget was interviewed on NPR recently, and said the DOW was near a bottom.
The media is a huge part of the problem in the US. There's no accountability, and the same clowns get airtime again and again and again.
Geoff (fool me once shame on.. writes:
Blodget? People still care what he has to say?
~~~~
Great American dopes that's who ... They think a British accent means knowledge, when it actually means they got booted from Britain for being insufferable.
The markets are working. Housing and cars are becoming affordable. Bring home the troops Obama, arrest the fraudsters, balance the budget, and then get out of the way.
The matrix cannot be rebooted
The Ponzi economy is just like the Ponzi Scheme ...
Once the illusion is shattered there is no going back ...
mmckinl | 02.03.09 - 7:47 pm | #
The "Fleet Age" could also be reduced without higher sales if Americans simply need less cars. Scrap the older cars, bingo, younger fleet.
If tens of thousands of UAW workers lose good-paying jobs, will that increase consumer spending? It might not hurt too much if there were other good jobs waiting for them. Are there?
Pavel Chichikov | 02.03.09 - 8:11 pm | #
UAW workers should have thought about that years ago. Greed has it's price everyone is paying for this mess..
We will hit bottom when this website gets more pageviews than drudge
Cannibal Recipes - Associated Content - associatedcontent.com
.
Jas, CR is a polite kinda guy. I am not.
Your an asshole.
UAW workers should have thought about that years ago. Greed has it's price everyone is paying for this mess..
Economist Moe Howard 3SU
~~~~
German and Japanese workers make about the same ... No?
It is called a management problem ... and the lack of Medicare for All ...
kernel panic detected in worldcrisis.sys
C:>del financial.sys
Can't delete, corrupted file
Please insert . cash into system
C:> run TARP_01.exe
Can't reload ponzi_scheme.sys, cash.tmp not found
C:> run TARP_02.exe
Can't reload ponzi_scheme.sys, cash.tmp not found
C:> restore economy.sys
fatal error- File is corrupted or missing
C:> reformat /S
Can't reformat obsolete system... Please upgrade to economy 2.0
I like sunshine although God has given me skin that does not like it.
I think if we can an entire year without:
Then I will need the sunblock
grim is the new gloom.
So, at the least, the pace of decline in new home sales will slow in 2009. More likely sales will find a bottom - to the surprise of many.
Yes, but how long will they stay there? We're really just getting started on the Option ARM ans Alt-A bombs.
I must say that all "redundancies," "staff reductions," "down-sizings," etc., are evidence of managerial incompentency. Who will dispute this point? Dead-wood you say? Isn't the existence of "dead-wood" also evidence of managerial incompetency?
--
America has been being taken down by bad people, from top to bottom, economists being in the middle!, and there is no political solution that I know of. Propaganda played the crucial role.
Morality takes long time to instill and lot less time to lose. Americans decided to experiment with loose morality beginning in 1960s and the process can't be easily (over a short period) reversed, can it?
It is the morality, stupid!
Jas
Why were UAW workers greedy to get what they could get? You don't see anyone saying that about Wall Street CEOs and their bonuses, do you?
Jas. Do you have Werners address?
I doubt they do. Lots of info needed to really have a true equal cost basis. Like how many labor hours are billed to each car for production cost. That alone could foul the advertised labor comparisons in the news. The legacy cost are from pensions and not modern 401k plans. Some insight is found at the Detroit Free press comments if you spend the time filtering through the hate mail of UAW and None union folks. How gets paid days off for hunting? Work banks where people sit for many years at 95% of wages? Lots of crazy benefits from the past are the burden of today.
joe shmoe writes:
along the lines of km4
change we can BLEED in:
Barack Obama grants CIA permission to retain right to carry out renditions
Barack Obama grants CIA permission to retain right to carry out renditions - Times Online
tranches of laphroaig
awesome
--
Nova,
The feeeeeeeeling is mutual.
Jas
I think the argument for a glimmer of hope for car sales is potentially flawed. The number of car registrations/household may very well decline going forward -- people will decide they don't need three cars -- and so the replacement demand will be cut accordingly.
If the future is much like the recent past then certainly vehicle sales will have to pick up.
Otherwise maybe the turnover rate comes down because the numerator drops?
Why were UAW workers greedy to get what they could get? You don't see anyone saying that about Wall Street CEOs and their bonuses, do you?
mal | 02.03.09 - 8:32 pm | #
I do not agree with the Golden parachutes nor excessive bonuses. I think some of these guys belong in jail.
Who says that well made and inexpensive cars do not sell?
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., South Koreas largest carmakers, defied lower U.S. demand in January to help Asian brands grab record market share and outsell U.S.-based competitors.
Hyundai gained 14 percent and affiliate Kias sales rose 3.5 percent, even as Toyota Motor Corp., the worlds biggest automaker, slid 32 percent, Honda Motor Co. fell 28 percent and Nissan Motor Co. declined 30 percent. Hyundai began a program last month to let customers who lose jobs return cars.