Doesn't it make you feel all warm and fuzzy that these are the people being counted on to guide the world economy out of the current morass? Think I might have stock up on shotgun shells on the way home tonight.
He's gone by May.....The English are a bit more astute in political protestation then the masses here. As long as the credit card works people don't give a shit. When "Ian" goes to the pub after a long day at the docks and see's his pounds not buying the same amount of Guiness....well that will be a huge problem.
Doesn't it make you feel all warm and fuzzy that these are the people being counted on to guide the world economy out of the current morass? Think I might have stock up on shotgun shells on the way home tonight.
Turbo | 02.04.09 - 12:55 pm | #
Well, at least they don't restrict our google searches. At least, not that we know of, anyway.
Bush 'I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system' We could spend all day on this. sexy derivative | 02.04.09 - 12:56 pm | #
Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs.
It will interesting to see the level of panic that develops in the political collapse when the proletariat realizes the criminals-in-Congress cannot do anything legitimate to correct the economic collapse.
Yours In Socialism,
Кильгор Форель
It will be interesting to observe the level of panic that ensues from the
Worked on a trial at which the defense's expert, board certified MD, testified that a microgram was a ten-thousandth of a gram. If it were, the dosage that the defendant gave the plaintiff would have killed him, according to the expert's other testimony.
I thought this was a Global Recession? If so, where's the concern for Chinese jobs? Afterall, they're the ones who make the french fries, so we should be concerned.
Just the quote. I couldn't care less about partisan politics. Comity? sexy derivative | 02.04.09 - 1:00 pm | #
No problem, just not here okay?
BAC has a new 52 week low now...under five bucks... \t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:02 pm | #
Only 5 more to go. The giant sh¡t sammiches they are trying to digest (countrywide & Merrill) are just the obvious ones. Had they hunkered down and stuck to their knitting they'd still be screwed.
You may not be anti-Semitic but you make anti-Semitic posts. Every white person who has been callled out for making a racist statement for the last 20 years has claimed, "but I'm no racist". Most probably believed it, and in a few cases it may have been true.
Is someone going to make a movie about all of this? Kinda like they did with the Enron fiasco? Who will they get to play Hank Paulson? Bush? Obama? Dodd? Barney Frank? Richard Shelby?
haha "too many zeros"..I saw on the CNN crawler yesterday that Zimbabwe decided to drop 12 zeros from their currency, problem solved! \t Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 12:59 pm | #
They should just put the logarithm and first digit of the number on the currency, e.g. "5-9" is $5 billion. We'll never get there in the US. At some point it will turn out to be necessary to trade in all exiting US$ for NuBux⢠because of all the drug money, or a giant dollar-eating worm, or some sort of urgent threat. Sucks to be on the "B" ark--I mean Earth--right now.
Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs.
Rob Dawg
Come on Rob. You freely and regularly make your "Leader O" cracks prophesying what Obama is going to do over the next 4 years. But when facts are stated on what we know Bush did over the last 8 years, you call foul. I know republicans think their rules only apply to others and not to them but that duplicitous belief system is old, tired and obviously failing.
My wife and I sat down to watch the movie Maxed Out last night. In the middle, she stops the movie and gets online to check her cards. She says she's going to close them up and just use the joint debit card we have. Wife jokes aside, that was a positive unintended consequence.
Rob Dawg says: "Rob Dawg writes:
The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job."
Rob Dawg, I am happy to say I completely agree.
The Dem leadership is in large measure a sorry bunch of sold-out traitors to their own constituents. The epic disaster of seditious rule by Right-wing Conservative Republicans was enabled in full by the posing Democratic Party leadership who sold out to the same Corporate/Military/Media/Theocratic agenda.
I want investigations. Starting with Pelosi would be fine by me.
Mexican Central Bank Offers Dollars to Banks to Halt Peso Slide
By Valerie Rota and Hugh Collins
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mexicos central bank offered dollars to banks to halt a slide in the peso after it plunged to a record low, said Vicente Gonzalez, director of foreign exchange trading at RBS Mexico.
Theyre not comfortable with this value, of the peso, Gonzalez said.
Banco de Mexicos press office said it couldnt immediately comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.
So governments want to take the world out of depression? This reminds me of an old joke:
- Can a woman make her man a millionaire?
- Yes, if he was a billionaire.
If government takes us out of recession, then they probably have taken us to a worse place.
Pelosi's was just a slip. What troubles me is that I think Brown's error was Freudian.
By the way - 1 currency sooner [yogi] writes: Without accepting your numbers as true, let's start with the obvious: the majority doesn't need a special interest group.
True - majorities don't need them, but they sure get a lot of mileage out of them!
Today someone asked me what the government should do in response to this crisis. I responded with the following. Feedback appreciated!!!
Things the government should do:
1) Create a good bank. Above all else, the government must ensure that productive companies are able to secure financing and stop laying off employees. It is extraordinarily inefficient for the government to support companies by channeling money through the existing financial system. They will siphon off trillions to repair their damaged balance sheets, and the money isnt going to get where it needs to go. This is politically a nightmare, but it must happen or this will turn into a greater depression.
2) Channel money into venture capital firms, with proven managers and investor matching. For any economic recovery to happen, we need new companies with new ideas, new business models, new jobs, and positive future yield. The government is grossly inefficient, corrupt, and wasteful. Therefore this any investment should be managed by people that know what theyre doing, and share in the up/downside.
3) Invest heavily/immediately in infrastructure and public works projects. We need productive outlets for unemployed people. We cannot afford to keep paying people for doing nothing.
4) Fix the healthcare system. This might mean nationalized healthcare immediately. This would have the same impact for companies as a tax cut, and it provides a social safety net for those that lose their jobs. Yes, this will screw over the health insurance companies. But they are a racket, profiting from those that are able to pay, while dumping those that cannot off onto Medicare and other government programs. Insurers, big pharma, and the lawyers can all go to hell, IMO.
5) Provide a solution to the massive debt burden of our population. Debt must be written down, and it should be done equitably. Those that were responsible should be rewarded. Maybe this means writing a large check to all taxpayers to help them write down debt. The moral hazard of rewarding those that were stupid/irresponsible with mortgage reductions is an abomination of capitalism. Debt must be written off equally for everyone.
6) Identify how the government is going to meet its unfunded liabilities. This means either inflation or default. The charade of constantly expanding the government balance sheet via debt and borrowing, while postponing the inevitable will end soon, one way or another. Better it happens in a controlled way than through a bond market collapse.
7) Expand taxation of the super-wealthy. This can be done via the Estate/Death tax, a tax on wealth & assets, or a requirement that a portion of investment profits are channeled back into our country (i.e. the VC idea). We cannot allow investors to profit from outsourcing jobs at the expense of our middle class. Our problem today comes from a massive concentration of wealth into the hands of a few, who have mismanaged that capital. This trend must be reversed.
8) Restore confidence in the system by putting those that committed crimes/fraud in jail.
9) Eliminate the CDS market, or in the least require a central clearinghouse with margin requirements
10) Companies that are too large to fail must be cut into smaller pieces so that they arent too large to fail anymore
11) Military spending must be reduced to help balance the budget. Jobs must be created elsewhere to offset the job losses, and they need to go somewhere that has a public benefit, rather than a complete waste of national resources.
12) Eliminate the corporatization of politics and the massive influence of lobbyists. They are a cancer that is destroying our political system. Politicians must represent the people, not the lobbyists/corporations.
13) Get rid of the Fed. There is no reason why our government must borrow money into existence. Our constitution gives congress the right to coin its currency it was a terrible mistake to give that right to private bankers who profit by engineering asset bubbles.
14) Impose limits on leverage, reinstate Glass-Seagall, and completely overhaul our regulatory system.
Margin Call of Cthulhu writes:
Pelosi's was just a slip. What troubles me is that I think Brown's error was Freudian.
.
He might have meant what he said, and then backpedaled when the shtf.
Rob Dawg says: The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job."
Rob Dawg, I am happy to say I completely agree. Conservative Republicans Blow | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:19 pm | #
Did you know she describes herself as moderate? That's almost as laughable as Cheney calling himself moderate. What if she not only says it but believes it? I worry for our nation. For the record, there's nothing wrong with extreme political positions. The danger is in the misrepresentation.
Rob Dawg says: "Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs."
Very noble, Dawg. Of course, if you really wished to keep CR non-political, you would stop with your trashy "leader O" Con Republican lies.
Oh, wait ... you're a Conservative, which makes it all different: you can issue political statements, it's only a problem when someone else does.
"Those that were responsible should be rewarded."
.
I'd rewrite this sentence. Could be read as 'those responsible for the crisis should be rewarded.' And I think we already have that covered.
"The bank is starting to see opportunities in its basic business of trading with clients, and some distressed portfolios of assets are starting to become available. They aren't large in size, and aren't trading yet, but it is a precursor to a more robust market, Viniar said."
Jas was long US gov't bonds? Yech, there's definitely a moral disconnect between spewing the stuff he puts out and being long US gov't bonds. I wouldn't lend the US gov't money if they were paying well over corporate yields.
Aid to the finance clowns who drove their portfolios like they did their BMWs should be make work jobs for industry refugees. They can pick up leaves, watch for "coyotes" on the border, plant decorative cabbages on the side of the road, etc.
crispy&cole(Unrated) writes: \tsexy derivative - I went to the CR 7 step program and I failed...still addicted \t crispy&cole | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:24 pm | #
My wife will kid me and ask 'what were the doomers saying today?'. But it's only half-joking because she really wants to know as she feels she's not getting the facts elsewhere.
Your item 2 should not happen. VC investment is far less efficient than all the other junk investment we see creating now. VC's have merely arbitraged the public markets to create financial exits. Value focus by VC's is an illusion. Dollars in to fundamental research by University's and SBIR shops is much, much better.
sexy derivative writes: My wife and I sat down to watch the movie Maxed Out last night. In the middle, she stops the movie and gets online to check her cards. She says she's going to close them up and just use the joint debit card we have. Wife jokes aside, that was a positive unintended consequence.
If you reduce your amount of available credit by closing accounts - I think it can negatively affect your credit score, as it tends to raise your ratio of total borrowing to total available credit [smaller denominator], which goes into your FICO. Yes, that is stupid, particularly since your wife is trying to be prudent. We didn't get where we are by being smart, did we?
I'm happy to be corrected, but I think that's right.
So you might do better not to cancel them, but instead just take them out of your wallet.
Not professional advice. Cthulhu's alternative solution is to devour creditors, by the way; YMMV.
The most ambitious effort to cut the bill is being led by Sens. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), moderates in their parties who share a dislike of the current version. Collins is scheduled to visit Obama at the White House this afternoon. "I'm going to go to him with a list" of suggested deletions, she said.
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Nelson said he and Collins have agreed to "tens of billions" in cuts, although he said he is skeptical that the effort will reach Collins's target of $200 billion in reductions. The pair has counted up to 20 allies in their effort, with more Democrats than Republicans at this point.
. Stimulus Bill Gets Housing Tax Perk - washingtonpost.com
VC companies are frequently walked wounded, zombies or just plain dead. Yuppie welfare factories. VC's are conflicted and don't want to write down investments until the very latest moment in order to put off reporting the bad news to their investments. A totally conflicted model.
It was skirted around this morning about why Madoff has his own security surrounding him, could be feeder funds from South American Drug Cartel's and/or he's took alot of money from The Russian Mafia. The elephant in the room is drug money, why why why is this not being even skirted around?
Yeah, the lack of people supporting the non-political Obama=FAIL commentary of certain posters seems to be a real problem. rent_to_own | 02.04.09 - 1:37 pm | #
Gavshire: Disagree with number 2. I worked for the government for 7 years (Court system). I'm proud of my contribution. Private law firms paid more. I don't care. Why not encourage the talented to work for the public. 400 k isn't so bad, especially if house prices are allowed to fall. The venture capital model rewards gamers and Ponzipigs.
Well now you're thinking like a "social conscience' fund. That usually ends well. \t query_tool | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 1:30 pm | #
Why is it that those social conscience funds don't do so well? Just incomptenece, I think. Money is a form of power, in fact, the little power that us small folks might yield in this system. As investors, we have at least some responsibility in where we put our money. I can make decent yields trading crap stocks without having to resort to places where I would feel guilty, but to yack off about the corrupt system like he does and then lend money to it is lame.
"If you reduce your amount of available credit by closing accounts - I think it can negatively affect your credit score, as it tends to raise your ratio of total borrowing to total available credit [smaller denominator], which goes into your FICO." -
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
It does, temporarily. But if you put the cards away, eventually the cc company will close the account, and that looks worse. (That's what my bank told be anyway.) You should look at all 3 of the cc trackers every year, they are fuckups. Notate and challenge everything fishy. After a year or two of prudence, your FICO should rise.
.
"Not professional advice. Cthulhu's alternative solution is to devour creditors, by the way; YMMV. ;)"
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
I'm restraining myself from posting the Motorhead classic "Eat the Rich" again.
You are spot on. I've made a killing representing the VC, IPO bubble companies. After 18 VC backed company IPOsover the last 15 years, I can tell you I'd have a made a fortune if I had waited for the 180 day lockup to fall of the shares and then look for shorting opportunities. Of course, as a lawyer, I probably would've been disbarred. 16 of the 18 deals went south big time within 36 months. 10 are no longer even in business.
Anyone else watching the Daily Show and noticing that Jon Stewart (and his staff) really GET it?
I think everyone gets it. You think Obama's team doesn't know nationalization is the best answer? They do. But they are not the ones ordering the music.
People in US are not cynical enough. In most other countries where corruption is more visible, people understand that most decisions in the government are made not for the sake of the country, or its people, or the economy as a whole. They are made for the sake of the ruling elite, which may very well mean looting the people and stashing away the spoils.
rent_to_own | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 1:37 pm | # dawg was pretty much the reason I installed CR companion. Some people should stick to stalking some 20something year-old and his multiple mortgages on THEIR OWN BLOG. I know there's some merit to not surpressing viewpoints and all, but there are some that just aren't worth reading.
Rob Dawg -- if nothing else, I raised my eyebrows when I saw that you were the one deciding to police "partisan attacks", as you certainly do not shy away from political comments, many of them critical of policies or politicans.
Where do you draw the line? Not that I'm going to adopt your system, I'm just curious how you think you're abiding by your own rules.
I understand how the Speaker can make that mistake.
When you are working with such large numbers millions, billions, trillions, thousands can seem so small.
Back in the 80s my trading partner had a sing on his desk that said:
Was I supposed to sell a million or buy a billion?
He had the sign made when did a tax swap on some physical GNMAs for a banking client and forgot to cover one side of the position. The next morning we got a call from the head of the bond desk congratulating us on having A HUGE PAIR for leaving 50 mm uncovered over night and making 10 basis points.
Thanks for that clarification, scone. I forgot that creditors will close unused accounts.
As a decidedly non-political poster on this board, can I suggest that we all agree that any leader of any political stripe, with enough motivation, effort, and support, can screw up a perfectly good nation?
I have had a couple of friends, a high level banker and a lawyer tell me that they believe we have already entered a depression -- that the metrics just haven't reflected it. Thoughts?
Jas Jain(Unrated) writes: \t-- It is quite revealing which of my posts CR deletes and which ones he doesn't.
Jas \t Jas Jain | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:31 pm | # Hey everyone! A recession/depression money-saving tip. When changing the oil in my car, I use postings like this as a rag.
OK, so VC isn't the correct answer. But my point is that we must encourage and provide funding for entrepreneurship. Funding has all but dried up for those looking to start/expand new businesses. We will not recover without this investment.
No. Just trying to spur the conversation away from politics and focus it on the topic at hand. The man is the man is the man is the man. Notwithstanding technical defintions, I believe we are getting there (depression), just not there yet. Just want a survey of the thoughts of others. Where are we?
Depressed Whiner writes:
I have had a couple of friends, a high level banker and a lawyer tell me that they believe we have already entered a depression -- that the metrics just haven't reflected it. Thoughts?
Is the lawyer me by any chance? Is the banker every person at goldman sachs I work with by any chance?
I suggest that we all agree that any leader of any political stripe, with enough motivation, effort, and support, can screw up a perfectly good nation?
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
We're all screwups here, Cthulhu knows. I wouldn't want mine to be held against me. And most of us got caught up in the boom frenzy, one way or another. I used to be a card-carrying member of the 'real estate is a good investment' club. As Pogo said, "we have met the enemy and he is us."
I have lots of friends in real estate and owners of auto dealerships (Ford, Suzuki, Mazda) that have gone TU in the last 90 days. Also, a tech guy w an MBA from good school who worked at a large insuror is now selling Hondas. Amazing anecdotal evidence
instead of unloading on Rob Dawg, whos opinion i value even when we disagree
may i suggest you pick one opinion and dispute it, with cordiality, please
i think Rob Dawg has a legit point when people (like me) sometimes go off the deep end on political discussions like i did regarding mccain born in panama and obama born in kenya
on the other hand you have a point (which i share) about when is it political, and whats fair for one should be fair for all
long-short, lets not get put out with each other
its gonna be a long deep painful depression, and im off my meds
The reason for my comment is that the consensus of this board is that the US is already in a Depression. There are several on here that are preparing for Mad Max types of situations...
Depressed Whiner writes:
I have lots of friends in real estate and owners of auto dealerships (Ford, Suzuki, Mazda) that have gone TU in the last 90 days
.
It would be great if everybody would identify the general geographic area they're talking about-- would make the observations that much more useful. Just a suggestion.
"It would be great if everybody would identify the general geographic area they're talking about-- would make the observations that much more useful. Just a suggestion."
Because when it comes to systemic collapse, "it's all local"!
RE and Auto are in the SE. Insuror is in Texas. Austin, Texas imnsho is going to fall through the ring of its sphincter and get a case of the dribbling diarrhea in 2009 and into early 2010. Totally VC and stock market driven wealth and lots of poseurs.
unfortunately there are hundreds, if not, thousands of Madoff's who were just a bit better in hiding the scheme. Those begin to appear as the "happy DJIA" goes lower and lower.
crispy&cole writes:
BAC is getting smoked today...
Ken Lewis = Madoff??
BofA has had one of the biggest fleets of corporate aircraft on Wall Street and had been reluctant to talk about it in the past. The fleet includes 7 corporate jets, 2 falcon corporate jets and 5 gulfstreams, each valued between $45 and $50 million.
BofA will also divest itself from one of two corporate apartments in New York City. One of those is located at the Time Warner Center.
My feeling is that we are NOT quite in a depression, at least by the GD I standards.
However, we are on our way there for a multitude of reasons.
I also believe that it is unavoidable at this point.
Deflation for everything, but food is in the cards and that sucks for 99.5% of the world. It may also suck for the remainder, if the rest ever take up the pitchforks and torches.
As for me and mine, I believe that we probably won't reach Mad Max, but we will come very close to meeting HIM!
Hide something in plain sight and it often will be missed.
Saving the economy here and abroad isn't in the works. Destroying it is. You can't cobble together a new system from a failed old system until the old system has been wiped clean.
A little unrest, arms channeled to the right faction, a government toppling here and there. Presto chango the dreaded NWO becomes reality.
I'm not so sure this isn't a bad thing. The planet is in serious trouble. We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system. We need a lower standard(consumable)of living and more sustainable approaches. The battle between the entrenched money interests and the bringers of change is being waged.
Nationalism destroys the ability of the future to become something different. More cooperation and less ascendancy of the west might be necessary. Getting to this new world is fraught with risks and very well may be unattainable. The forces that believe in a single world government figured out there won't be a tomorrow worth having if they didn't act now. Act now they did. Wait and see is the only option for the commentariat.
sexy derivative - I went to the CR 7 step program and I failed...still addicted crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:24 pm | #
Crispy, that's a twelve step program. But don't do the other five steps, we love you here. BTW- the longer I think about it, the more respectful I am that you took the effort to do the whistle-blowing.
"Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
What exactly?"
Prefered shares of blue chip companies yelding 7 to 10 % annualy. He forgot to mention that you & I won't be able to get those. Because let's face it,
Neither of us is WB.
The planet is in serious trouble. We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system.
That is never going to happen.
At least not in this civilization-collapse cycle.
You could not repress the world populace enough in order to deal with the socioeconomic consequences of throwing the entire world GDP at that sort of thing.
It would be easier to just kill off 3/4 of the world's population and continue to live large on Mother Earth.
ON TOPIC: (politics) I disagree with most of what dawg says, but he's "excellent" nonetheless. The Law and Economics crowd (Chicago, Posner) would have you believe their voodoo is science, but see zero at 1:17
A bit of research -
'Not every community in Virginia allows alcohol sales. (The location where bourbon originated is also "dry.") The annual report indicates if a county allows liquor-by-the-drink or if it is dry. In Virginia, 100% of the cities are "wet," reflecting the influence of the hospitality industry whre people are concentrted. Dry counties in 2001 were Appomattox, Bland, Botetourt, Buchanan, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Dickenson, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Green, Halifax, Henry, Highland, King William, Lee, Louisa, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Montgomery, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Surry, Tazewell, Warren, Washington, Wise, and Wythe.' The "ABC" of Legal Liquor in Virginia
anyway, the guy who tried blewing wistle on Mad.doff in 90's has promisse to blew another at least 1 bl ponzi scheme tomorrow.
just wait for Sec raid reports i the morning.
Hmm. Lyondell managed to get DIP financing after all:
Lyondells loan came with 13 percent interest and 7 percent in fees. Some of its lenders may end up getting 20 percent on their one-year investment in the loan, which matures Dec. 15, according to a report from Standard & Poors....
The largest participants in Lyondells loan were UBS AG, with $770 million; Apollo Management LP with $710 million; Cerberus Capital Management LP with $237.5 million; and ABN Amro Holding NV with $230 million. Silver Point Capital LP, Angelo Gordon & Co. and Appaloosa each contributed $200 million.
Why are the money center banks going to piddle with small consumer loans when they can get 13% interest and 7% fees for super priority DIP financing?
Rosenberg's piece is very well written, too. Most all the topics in it have been touched upon here, but he ties it all together in a strong narrative. This was the most interesting part to me as it seems to suggest no bond market crash, counter to the prevailing wisdom:
Risings savings rate will be incredibly deflationary
The process of a secular rise in the US personal savings rate and the dampening effect this will have on aggregate demand will be incredibly deflationary for some time. While fiscal stimulus will indeed cushion the blow, the mathematical reality is that the federal government must lift its share of the economy by 10 percentage points of GDP just to fully offset a 1 percentage point contraction in consumer spending. While there is growing concern over government bond supply to fund the record fiscal deficit, there is ample room on bank balance sheets for the new issuance, and the Fed has already hinted that it too will emerge as a buyer of Treasuries if market rates were to back up, as they have been for the past few
weeks. Moreover, the expansion of the government debt must be viewed in the context of the contraction of private sector debt, and so on balance, the growth in total economy-wide credit has actually slowed to 6% (year-over-year) from nearly 9% a year ago.
so the poster above, saying bonds are "on fire" doesnt mean its all good, rather, it means the bond house is burning down, right? mock turtle | 02.04.09 - 2:13 pm | #
The Treasury Yield Curve is looking better every day and yields are almost back on track. Nonetheless, the chart on Bloomberg showing Bear losses with Federal Reserve is not very nice:
Seems to me that JPM should take all the losses and be called a bad bank, or a nationalized bank, and all the crooks at JPM should be fired or placed in prison, along with Bernanke and Paulson!
Prefered shares of blue chip companies yelding 7 to 10 % annualy. He forgot to mention that you & I won't be able to get those. Because let's face it, Neither of us is WB. Comrade de Chaos | 02.04.09 - 2:14 pm | #
It's not that hard to find bonds yielding above 7%, in pretty decent companies. All I have is my ameritrade account, and I've found some decent offerings. Don't need to be WB to buy them. Also, don't buy into HOG bonds just cuz they yield 15%!
"We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system."
Perhaps you missed the memo, but not only are none of the rest of the planetoids habitable, they are actively and extremely harmful to carbon based life forms.
Sometimes when I listen to NPR I feel like I am in hell. Other time, I feel so warm and fuzzy that I am listening to "public" radio. Often, after listening to NPR, I go buy yet another Prius and send money to Africa.
Nice plan. The problems are so overwhelming that no one knows where to begin. Imagine walking into your home in the ninth ward in NOLA after Katrina. You walk around in a daze then you sit down and cry. THEN you get up and start salvaging what you can. Or you just walk away and start fresh someplace else. That dichotomy is what we are witnessing in our leadership.
@Rob Dawg- I support Rob Dawg staying and sharing his viewpoint. The rabid response to him is an overreaction. He doesn't represent all that is wrong in America. He does have valuable insights and disagreeing with those can be accomplished in a respectful manner.
Fear should be released after warning you to pay attention.
I'm starting to discount the drama noise in the blogosphere. I suspect there's an attempt to grab eyeballs and increase personal revenues. I mean, who reads this stuff when it's not a crisis? Some of these guys are making hay while the sun shines, it seems to me.
Fix the healthcare system. This might mean nationalized healthcare immediately.
I guess the problem I have when people say "the government needs to fix the health care system" is simply that our government hasn't demonstrated that it's really capable of fixing things.
If the government continues trying to fix things without properly assessing its own abilities to actually fix things, we're going to end up in a worse downward spiral.
Will it really do any good if the health care system ends up like the post office/DMV/public school system/housing market?
People seem to start with the assumption that if the government acts there will necessarily be improvement.
I don't see that evidence supports this conclusion.
It seems to me that if you have a government that manages its finances so poorly that it is bleeding money out of every orifice, expanding it is simply going to lead to greater loss and harm no matter whether it's public or private.
What's wrong with saying:
"Do the things that you are currently responsible for more competently before you begin asking for more money and power."
Can anybody name a successful business that puts the people who lose the most money at the top of the food chain?
It seems to me like this is a matter of reason, not ideology.
I mean, who reads this stuff when it's not a crisis? Some of these guys are making hay while the sun shines, it seems to me.
scone | 02.04.09 - 2:22 pm
I always check to see if they are running a fund or selling MRE's myself.
Buffett (that's right two "t's" at the end, has made a fortune creating and selling pieces of paper at inflated value. Why do you think BH bought Clayton Homes, a vertically integrated mobile home manufacturer. Hint: It wasn't because of the really cool single wides.
Lot's of resources in them thar hills. Ice has been found on the moon and Mars. Oxygen/water can be derived from the ice and colonization(limited) could be the result. Getting of this planet is a solution and a direction for humanity to aspire to.
Forgive my misspent youth and thousands of hours lost in sci fi.
I feel bad for Obama.. I think that unlike Bush, he really does want to do what is right and he's a very bright guy.. but he's working with CLOWNS.. f-ing clowns
The democrats are almost worse than the republicans.. they let bush trample all over the constitution for 8 years and didn't do anything... COWARDLY LOSERS
This is a depression. And this good-bank, bad-bank thing is kind of laughable. Good banks are only created by discipline. A bank is good if, over time, it can lend money and get a return on the money.
If you simply throw all the bad assets into a bad bank, you haven't solved the problem: the relative trustworthiness of various debtors and the relative ability of creditors to discern who is a good credit risk and who is not.
"It seems to me that if you have a government that manages its finances so poorly that it is bleeding money out of every orifice, expanding it is simply going to lead to greater loss and harm no matter whether it's public or private."
The real problem is that people don't think about government the right way.. WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE THE GOVERNMENT.... but we don't act like it.
Government in and of itself is never the problem.. the way it's run is often a problem. Government can be as good or bad as the popular will permits.
People get what they ask for.. as I recall bush got re-elected after an absolutely dismal performance.. heck 20% of people still think he was just great!
anon writes
@Rob Dawg- I support Rob Dawg staying and sharing his viewpoint. The rabid response to him is an overreaction. He doesn't represent all that is wrong in America
There was no "rabid" response. He was just called out for his conflicting statements.
Pelosi is as dumb as an ox (and not much more attractive), but I should cut her some slack on this one- after the last year, it really is hard to keep track of your number magnitudes.
"Reading Page not found « naked capitalism you.html puts me in mind of those protesting that O is being called a failure far too soon. FYI, a good number of us foresaw O's failure a year and more ago."
What was the alternative?
We only get 2 options..... besides some who might say Ron Paul.. Obama was clearly the best canidate by a wide margin.
We find ourselves on a global economic battlefield, out of ammo, bayonets taken away from us, supply lines cut, fighting bare handed against and surrounded by the enemy. Problem is the enemy is us. It is amazing the rest of the world loaned us money to enable us to build weapons with which to try to control them in the past. Now, it's down right lunacy. Hegemon, meet the new boss.
"We only get 2 options..... besides some who might say Ron Paul.. Obama was clearly the best canidate by a wide margin."
There were many options. Its called the primaries. I favored Ron Paul, but I think Kucinich and Gravel would have been better than Obama. But I admit, Obama sure sounds nice, and he's make some promising first steps. But I want to see follow through.
"I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the best talent is "going to go" if they don't get bonuses."
Half of them will go to frivolous lawsuit industry, extorting money from anyone who still will have money left.
The other half will work as hired hitmen for those who have money, killing those who dare to sue them.
Unless I misunderstand your meaning of the word 'talent'. There wasn't anyone on Wall Street talented in the traditional sense. Talented trader is an oxymoron.
... Karthik Ramanathan, the Treasury's acting assistant secretary for financial markets, said the gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs....
Here's the game folks. Lemme hold your money. I'll keep it safe and make it grow for you. Trust me. I'm smarter than you. See the imprimatur of my education and station in life. How do you think I got here?
Mock-
No I missed it..however that would explain the indirect bid (i.e. the Fed) having to step up to the plate...
As I see it there are three nuclear options with that market: China, Japan, and the U.K. in that order. One will push it.....although one can make the argument of M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction) we're not talking about actual physical destruction. It comes down to protectionism.....my guess is that China does it slowly and starts the ball rolling.
This is why I say the argument about long term notes has nothing to do with any sort of implied yield. Yields can be whatever they want.....when you can't sell them to collect you have a problem.
We should see this soon. It's already started IMO.
This is a depression. And this good-bank, bad-bank thing is kind of laughable. Good banks are only created by discipline. A bank is good if, over time, it can lend money and get a return on the money.
Yep.
Credit comes from responsible, constructive, mutually beneficial behavior. Nothing else.
There is nothing the government can do to forcibly create credit.
In fact force is almost its exact opposite.
We might have to find this out the hard way as our government increasingly attempts to replace cooperation with forcible redistribution of assets.
Our economy functions because of the efficiency that comes from the financial manifestation of cooperation - credit.
Attempting to replace credit with government force and coercion is like trying to replace the oil in your engine with sand.
Obama's alternative was that old guy who wanted to "stop the decline of the house prices". And the Miss Alaska runner-up who had a middling career as a teevee sports anchor.
So anyone saying they did not vote Obama voted for that dream team.
Which is unfortunately probably what will happen.
mal | 02.04.09 - 2:14 pm | #
Worst case scenario. I give us 30% chance in coming out the other side intact. Always been a sucker for the underdog.
and leave the rest of the feeders forgotten in the back of the closet to die.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:29 pm | #
Undoubtedly. We all are going to die. Be good to think mankind will continue.
You ever tear up after watching something performed by a person done so beautifully that it momentarily transformed your world? Music, dance, athletics, art...I feel this way when I think about humanity escaping the bonds of Earth.
I'm not religious but I do believe something exists after the cells die. If I'm wrong and it's all just blackness and done is done then such was life.
"If you simply throw all the bad assets into a bad bank, you haven't solved the problem: the relative trustworthiness of various debtors and the relative ability of creditors to discern who is a good credit risk and who is not.
Joe Strummer | 02.04.09 - 2:27 pm | #
i couldn agree more
i wrote a polite but hard nosed email to the people who i worked for (and with), on the obama campaign, and said prez obamas good bank bad bank proposal is crazy
obama has made some, is making some mistakes...the key is can he adjust, learn, move left move right etc
some think they know already tha he is a sucess or a failure
Obama's lack of economic expertise was never really questioned. He just happened to be running against a man who had absolutely ZERO economic expertise.
I think this pork barrel bill and his choice of Geithner will prove to be enormous failures.
Treasury notes are investments...you don't plan to keep them forever...even to maturity in most cases. If you are then you will be in for quite the surprise.
Those notes represent nothing more than buying equities in the 10-14k range.
Of course this is simplifying it quite a bit...I'd post more about this but I have to run...
It would be more funny if trillions of taxpayer dollars were not about to be flushed down the toilet.
Conjure is right. The world is in depression. All Hail Conjure!
Mr. Brown had it right.
--bh
I like it when politicians talk about "hope" and "change". Now THAT is funny.
Idiots...Do you expect anything more than what you are getting?
Most Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
- Not so funny sobering reality
translation : "The California Congressional Pork Bill needs amending".
More debt to pay for McMansions overbuilt next to fire zones? Thanks, California!
The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job.
Has mp posted since his farewell at all? He had said he would still post now and then I thought?
treasuries are on fire today
"Has mp posted since his farewell at all? He had said he would still post now and then I thought?
Comrade Kristina"
Hey is too busy posting on Penthouse forum.
It should have been you Gordie.
"Here are a couple of quotes that are making the rounds"
Spoken by those who have been consuming the rounds, njo doubt.
Nostrovia,
thousands, millions. C'mon, what's the difference anyway? What's three orders of magnitude between friends.
Seriously, though: It just confirms the lack of arithmetical aptitude in congress.
Mr. Brown's office issued a correction later (recession, not depression). Here is a short video:
But in the video it looks like he started to say "recession" and then corrected himself and said "depression".
He must have just been talking to his economic advisers and forgot that all the depression talk was supposed to stay behind closed doors.
At least the fundamentals of our economy are sound.
She was thinking about the next stimulus plan.
Ju writes:
treasuries are on fire today
Ju | 02.04.09 - 12:49 pm | #
Yes, the bond bubble continues to burst...as stated numerous times...
Or is our economy making fundamental souunds? fool me once...
Give Pelosi a break. She meant all of North America, South America and Central America. Still, the figure seems a bit high.
Doesn't it make you feel all warm and fuzzy that these are the people being counted on to guide the world economy out of the current morass? Think I might have stock up on shotgun shells on the way home tonight.
Pelosi must have been confused. They're talking of blowing $1T so a 1/2 billion is small change.
Nostrovia,
"Great job Brownie"
He's gone by May.....The English are a bit more astute in political protestation then the masses here. As long as the credit card works people don't give a shit. When "Ian" goes to the pub after a long day at the docks and see's his pounds not buying the same amount of Guiness....well that will be a huge problem.
Ciao
MS
Bush 'I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system'
We could spend all day on this.
Ju writes:
treasuries are on fire today
Ju | 02.04.09 - 12:49 pm |
30 year up almost 120 bps from its recent low.
I hope Jas is OK.
Doesn't it make you feel all warm and fuzzy that these are the people being counted on to guide the world economy out of the current morass? Think I might have stock up on shotgun shells on the way home tonight.
Turbo | 02.04.09 - 12:55 pm | #
Well, at least they don't restrict our google searches. At least, not that we know of, anyway.
Jesse's Café Américain
sums up the GS propoganda nicely...pay back TARP take from Fed. Total scumbags, everything out of these is too clever by half - except for Tiny Tim
These people subscribe to the check book theory:
"I have checks so I MUST have money"
I seem to recall this being a problem already...
Ciao
MS
Speaker Pelosi (who happens to be my congressperson) has been spending too much time around too many zeroes, that's all.
Bush 'I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system'
We could spend all day on this.
sexy derivative | 02.04.09 - 12:56 pm | #
Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs.
haha "too many zeros"..I saw on the CNN crawler yesterday that Zimbabwe decided to drop 12 zeros from their currency, problem solved!
pay back TARP take from Fed. Total scumbags, everything out of these is too clever by half
That was from the AIG playbook. Give it a couple of months, and the public doesn't even care.
Bush 'I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system'
Should read:
'I've abandoned free-market principles to save the Federal Reserve credit market monopoly.'
Of the bankers, by the bankers, for the bankers.
Dawg-
Just the quote. I couldn't care less about partisan politics. Comity?
It will interesting to see the level of panic that develops in the political collapse when the proletariat realizes the criminals-in-Congress cannot do anything legitimate to correct the economic collapse.
Yours In Socialism,
Кильгор Форель
It will be interesting to observe the level of panic that ensues from the
Worked on a trial at which the defense's expert, board certified MD, testified that a microgram was a ten-thousandth of a gram. If it were, the dosage that the defendant gave the plaintiff would have killed him, according to the expert's other testimony.
BAC has a new 52 week low now...under five bucks...
Please excuse our Prime Minister, Dimwit Brown. He's not all there in the head. Sad little fellow. Got something right for once tho.....
Every month that we do not have an economic recovery package 500 million Americans lose their jobs."
Haven't we had an economic recovery package since October?
Maybe the correction ought to read:
Every month that we have an economic recovery package 500 thousand Americans lose their jobs."
I thought this was a Global Recession? If so, where's the concern for Chinese jobs? Afterall, they're the ones who make the french fries, so we should be concerned.
Just the quote. I couldn't care less about partisan politics. Comity?
sexy derivative | 02.04.09 - 1:00 pm | #
No problem, just not here okay?
BAC has a new 52 week low now...under five bucks...
\t Comrade Kristina | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:02 pm | #
Only 5 more to go. The giant sh¡t sammiches they are trying to digest (countrywide & Merrill) are just the obvious ones. Had they hunkered down and stuck to their knitting they'd still be screwed.
Jas,
you should update your website, you have a lot of interesting things to say, but the archives are quite old.
High on the Hog!
so.... how many executives who are living high on the hog have been cut with this salary cap that is getting all the amazing headlines?
answer: ZERO
poor girl, maybe she meant the world wide unemployment count
Man, mention one quote from Bush in a thread about "funny things politicians say" thread and get trounced on.
"Every month that we do not have an economic recovery package 500 million Americans lose their jobs."
Who does she think we are? China?
By the way, what the heck is wrong with Bank of America?
(said with a straight face)
"500 million...lose their jobs."
Nancy Pelosi
.
Maybe she meant 500 million jobs lost worldwide this year.
Nemo, BofA is the spawn of Satan...that's what is wrong with them in a nutshell..
Maybe she meant 500 million jobs lost worldwide this year.
scone | 02.04.09 - 1:11 pm | #
Maybe she's just too stupid to know the difference between 500K and 500M. That seems more likely that all the excuses made for her here!
30 year up almost 120 bps from its recent low.
I hope Jas is OK.
ac | 02.04.09 - 12:57 pm | #
You may not be anti-Semitic but you make anti-Semitic posts. Every white person who has been callled out for making a racist statement for the last 20 years has claimed, "but I'm no racist". Most probably believed it, and in a few cases it may have been true.
Give Nan a break. She's used to dealing with budgets where millions are the old billions.
Is someone going to make a movie about all of this? Kinda like they did with the Enron fiasco? Who will they get to play Hank Paulson? Bush? Obama? Dodd? Barney Frank? Richard Shelby?
Here's a roundup of articles on the stimulus package, lots 'o links from the chattering classes:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/topic/?topic=obama_stimulus_package
Without accepting your numbers as true, let's start with the obvious: the majority doesn't need a special interest group.
would anyone have noticed these quotes if Drudge didn't make a giant headline out of them?
haha "too many zeros"..I saw on the CNN crawler yesterday that Zimbabwe decided to drop 12 zeros from their currency, problem solved!
\t
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 12:59 pm | #
They should just put the logarithm and first digit of the number on the currency, e.g. "5-9" is $5 billion. We'll never get there in the US. At some point it will turn out to be necessary to trade in all exiting US$ for NuBux⢠because of all the drug money, or a giant dollar-eating worm, or some sort of urgent threat. Sucks to be on the "B" ark--I mean Earth--right now.
Last one out of the BAC HQ turn out the lights
Out of the mouths of....babes? Idiots? Tools?
Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs.
Rob Dawg
Come on Rob. You freely and regularly make your "Leader O" cracks prophesying what Obama is going to do over the next 4 years. But when facts are stated on what we know Bush did over the last 8 years, you call foul. I know republicans think their rules only apply to others and not to them but that duplicitous belief system is old, tired and obviously failing.
My wife and I sat down to watch the movie Maxed Out last night. In the middle, she stops the movie and gets online to check her cards. She says she's going to close them up and just use the joint debit card we have. Wife jokes aside, that was a positive unintended consequence.
Rob Dawg says: "Rob Dawg writes:
The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job."
Rob Dawg, I am happy to say I completely agree.
The Dem leadership is in large measure a sorry bunch of sold-out traitors to their own constituents. The epic disaster of seditious rule by Right-wing Conservative Republicans was enabled in full by the posing Democratic Party leadership who sold out to the same Corporate/Military/Media/Theocratic agenda.
I want investigations. Starting with Pelosi would be fine by me.
Glad to know we agree on something.
Mexican Central Bank Offers Dollars to Banks to Halt Peso Slide
By Valerie Rota and Hugh Collins
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Mexicos central bank offered dollars to banks to halt a slide in the peso after it plunged to a record low, said Vicente Gonzalez, director of foreign exchange trading at RBS Mexico.
Theyre not comfortable with this value, of the peso, Gonzalez said.
Banco de Mexicos press office said it couldnt immediately comment when contacted by Bloomberg News.
crispy - fix your link
--
"I hope Jas is OK."
ac,
If only a dope would mind his own business!
Jas
So governments want to take the world out of depression? This reminds me of an old joke:
- Can a woman make her man a millionaire?
- Yes, if he was a billionaire.
If government takes us out of recession, then they probably have taken us to a worse place.
"Theyre not comfortable with this value,
Sounds eerily familiar....
Understatement of the century....including last.
Ciao
MS
Who will they get to play Hank Paulson?
Ed Harris
Bush?
Dustin Hoffman (think "Rain Man")
Obama?
James Caviezel
Dodd?
Ed McMahon
Barney Frank?
Liberace
(They will have to use some computer technology like they did for Brando in the last Superman flick)
Crispy-
Didn't you say the other day you'd be leaving? If so, glad you're back. Maybe it was a joke, though.
Anybody know what's up with BAC other than the obvious price / volume trace?
Pelosi's was just a slip. What troubles me is that I think Brown's error was Freudian.
By the way - 1 currency sooner [yogi] writes:
Without accepting your numbers as true, let's start with the obvious: the majority doesn't need a special interest group.
True - majorities don't need them, but they sure get a lot of mileage out of them!
sexy derivative - I went to the CR 7 step program and I failed...still addicted
Today someone asked me what the government should do in response to this crisis. I responded with the following. Feedback appreciated!!!
Things the government should do:
1) Create a good bank. Above all else, the government must ensure that productive companies are able to secure financing and stop laying off employees. It is extraordinarily inefficient for the government to support companies by channeling money through the existing financial system. They will siphon off trillions to repair their damaged balance sheets, and the money isnt going to get where it needs to go. This is politically a nightmare, but it must happen or this will turn into a greater depression.
2) Channel money into venture capital firms, with proven managers and investor matching. For any economic recovery to happen, we need new companies with new ideas, new business models, new jobs, and positive future yield. The government is grossly inefficient, corrupt, and wasteful. Therefore this any investment should be managed by people that know what theyre doing, and share in the up/downside.
3) Invest heavily/immediately in infrastructure and public works projects. We need productive outlets for unemployed people. We cannot afford to keep paying people for doing nothing.
4) Fix the healthcare system. This might mean nationalized healthcare immediately. This would have the same impact for companies as a tax cut, and it provides a social safety net for those that lose their jobs. Yes, this will screw over the health insurance companies. But they are a racket, profiting from those that are able to pay, while dumping those that cannot off onto Medicare and other government programs. Insurers, big pharma, and the lawyers can all go to hell, IMO.
5) Provide a solution to the massive debt burden of our population. Debt must be written down, and it should be done equitably. Those that were responsible should be rewarded. Maybe this means writing a large check to all taxpayers to help them write down debt. The moral hazard of rewarding those that were stupid/irresponsible with mortgage reductions is an abomination of capitalism. Debt must be written off equally for everyone.
6) Identify how the government is going to meet its unfunded liabilities. This means either inflation or default. The charade of constantly expanding the government balance sheet via debt and borrowing, while postponing the inevitable will end soon, one way or another. Better it happens in a controlled way than through a bond market collapse.
7) Expand taxation of the super-wealthy. This can be done via the Estate/Death tax, a tax on wealth & assets, or a requirement that a portion of investment profits are channeled back into our country (i.e. the VC idea). We cannot allow investors to profit from outsourcing jobs at the expense of our middle class. Our problem today comes from a massive concentration of wealth into the hands of a few, who have mismanaged that capital. This trend must be reversed.
8) Restore confidence in the system by putting those that committed crimes/fraud in jail.
9) Eliminate the CDS market, or in the least require a central clearinghouse with margin requirements
10) Companies that are too large to fail must be cut into smaller pieces so that they arent too large to fail anymore
11) Military spending must be reduced to help balance the budget. Jobs must be created elsewhere to offset the job losses, and they need to go somewhere that has a public benefit, rather than a complete waste of national resources.
12) Eliminate the corporatization of politics and the massive influence of lobbyists. They are a cancer that is destroying our political system. Politicians must represent the people, not the lobbyists/corporations.
13) Get rid of the Fed. There is no reason why our government must borrow money into existence. Our constitution gives congress the right to coin its currency it was a terrible mistake to give that right to private bankers who profit by engineering asset bubbles.
14) Impose limits on leverage, reinstate Glass-Seagall, and completely overhaul our regulatory system.
Margin Call of Cthulhu writes:
Pelosi's was just a slip. What troubles me is that I think Brown's error was Freudian.
.
He might have meant what he said, and then backpedaled when the shtf.
you promised to drop it. so drop it
Rob Dawg says:
The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job."
Rob Dawg, I am happy to say I completely agree.
Conservative Republicans Blow | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:19 pm | #
Did you know she describes herself as moderate? That's almost as laughable as Cheney calling himself moderate. What if she not only says it but believes it? I worry for our nation.
For the record, there's nothing wrong with extreme political positions. The danger is in the misrepresentation.
Rob Dawg says: "Or we could spend the next 4 years discussing Obama "I never even accepted the principle of free markets." Let's give it a rest here shall we? There's only one CR and there are hundreds of political slugfest blogs where this stuff belongs."
Very noble, Dawg. Of course, if you really wished to keep CR non-political, you would stop with your trashy "leader O" Con Republican lies.
Oh, wait ... you're a Conservative, which makes it all different: you can issue political statements, it's only a problem when someone else does.
Got it. I think a lot of us do.
we all knew crispy would never leave permanently.
welcome back!
now, about that matt simmons piece.
"Those that were responsible should be rewarded."
.
I'd rewrite this sentence. Could be read as 'those responsible for the crisis should be rewarded.' And I think we already have that covered.
Goldman Sachs CFO seeks to repay TARP funds
UPDATE 2-Goldman Sachs CFO seeks to repay TARP funds
| Reuters
You ain't gonna cut our pay and we have our hand in the FED coookie jar anyway.
"The bank is starting to see opportunities in its basic business of trading with clients, and some distressed portfolios of assets are starting to become available. They aren't large in size, and aren't trading yet, but it is a precursor to a more robust market, Viniar said."
They will catch falling knives...
Rob Dawg: "For the record, there's nothing wrong with extreme political positions. The danger is in the misrepresentation. "
Something else we can agree upon.
Jas was long US gov't bonds? Yech, there's definitely a moral disconnect between spewing the stuff he puts out and being long US gov't bonds. I wouldn't lend the US gov't money if they were paying well over corporate yields.
High on the Hog!
Anonymous | 02.04.09 - 1:08 pm | #
YouTube
- Tad - High On The Hog Tad....old grunge classic from Seattle
We need a bigger TARP!
BK OF AMERICA CP Share Price Chart | BAC - Yahoo! Finance
http://youtube.com/watch?v=lE5APzEKsFY
Joanna | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:28 pm | #
in link form.
That's right. Jas is in effect lending money for 30 years to born and bred American dopes!
Something else we can agree upon.
Conservative Republicans Blow | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:27 pm | #
Yeah but look at the other responses. See how most people cannot control themselves.
To Jas's split personality:
Actually, I promised my grandmother to engage anti-Semites in dialogue, whether either of us felt like it.
In vino, or stupidity, veritas.
Nancy Pelosi is Tommy D'Alsandro's daughter.
My Maryland 50s mantra.
ille_vir writes:
I wouldn't lend the US gov't money if they were paying well over corporate yields.
ille_vir | 02.04.09 - 1:27 pm
Well now you're thinking like a "social conscience' fund. That usually ends well.
Aid to the finance clowns who drove their portfolios like they did their BMWs should be make work jobs for industry refugees. They can pick up leaves, watch for "coyotes" on the border, plant decorative cabbages on the side of the road, etc.
crispy&cole(Unrated) writes:
\tsexy derivative - I went to the CR 7 step program and I failed...still addicted
\t crispy&cole | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:24 pm | #
My wife will kid me and ask 'what were the doomers saying today?'. But it's only half-joking because she really wants to know as she feels she's not getting the facts elsewhere.
--
It is quite revealing which of my posts CR deletes and which ones he doesn't.
Jas
We should agree, as a world, on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of depression.
Bernakian slip.
Gavshire Hatahway,
Your item 2 should not happen. VC investment is far less efficient than all the other junk investment we see creating now. VC's have merely arbitraged the public markets to create financial exits. Value focus by VC's is an illusion. Dollars in to fundamental research by University's and SBIR shops is much, much better.
Rob Dawg and sexy derrivative
i respectfully disagree
all the pulls below are from posters on this thread, who take a chop at a politician making erroneous economic claims...and are "in bounds" imho
I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free market system'
The good result of 500 million is that means Nancy Pelosi would lose her job.
"Great job Brownie" (referring to gordon brown)He's gone by May
"I never even accepted the principle of free markets."
He must have just been talking to his economic advisers and forgot that all the depression talk was supposed to stay behind closed doors.
sexy derivative writes:
My wife and I sat down to watch the movie Maxed Out last night. In the middle, she stops the movie and gets online to check her cards. She says she's going to close them up and just use the joint debit card we have. Wife jokes aside, that was a positive unintended consequence.
If you reduce your amount of available credit by closing accounts - I think it can negatively affect your credit score, as it tends to raise your ratio of total borrowing to total available credit [smaller denominator], which goes into your FICO. Yes, that is stupid, particularly since your wife is trying to be prudent. We didn't get where we are by being smart, did we?
I'm happy to be corrected, but I think that's right.
So you might do better not to cancel them, but instead just take them out of your wallet.
Not professional advice. Cthulhu's alternative solution is to devour creditors, by the way; YMMV.
Recession, Depression, meh. We should go back to calling downturns what we did in the days before we created the Fed: panics.
Who's panicking?
Haggling the stimulus price:
The most ambitious effort to cut the bill is being led by Sens. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), moderates in their parties who share a dislike of the current version. Collins is scheduled to visit Obama at the White House this afternoon. "I'm going to go to him with a list" of suggested deletions, she said.
ad_icon
Nelson said he and Collins have agreed to "tens of billions" in cuts, although he said he is skeptical that the effort will reach Collins's target of $200 billion in reductions. The pair has counted up to 20 allies in their effort, with more Democrats than Republicans at this point.
.
Stimulus Bill Gets Housing Tax Perk - washingtonpost.com
I'm panicking.
Join me 'Bama.
VC companies are frequently walked wounded, zombies or just plain dead. Yuppie welfare factories. VC's are conflicted and don't want to write down investments until the very latest moment in order to put off reporting the bad news to their investments. A totally conflicted model.
Not in public, Liz. It's best to be discreet about such matters.
It was skirted around this morning about why Madoff has his own security surrounding him, could be feeder funds from South American Drug Cartel's and/or he's took alot of money from The Russian Mafia. The elephant in the room is drug money, why why why is this not being even skirted around?
That's "bad news to their investors." Sorry.
Some real panic would be good for getting minds to focus on reality.
Long lines at banks waiting for their money.
Freeways closed
Non-Fed Reserve helicopters with no marking circling overhead
Empty supermarket shelves
People 'carrying' in plain view
Liquor shops and bars closed and guarded by police
Only CSPAN on TV
Internet disabled for everything but por
I wonder how Putin feels about Fitch downgrading Russia.
When does Timmay get to redecorate his office ? Clearly Hank's decorator's trimmings won't do.
Yeah, the lack of people supporting the non-political Obama=FAIL commentary of certain posters seems to be a real problem.
rent_to_own | 02.04.09 - 1:37 pm | #
Bye, bye.
Jim, that is NOT acceptable, the bars must stay open!
Gavshire:
Disagree with number 2. I worked for the government for 7 years (Court system). I'm proud of my contribution. Private law firms paid more. I don't care. Why not encourage the talented to work for the public. 400 k isn't so bad, especially if house prices are allowed to fall. The venture capital model rewards gamers and Ponzipigs.
OT:
Anyone else watching the Daily Show and noticing that Jon Stewart (and his staff) really GET it?
He was talking about pitch forks and wiping out shareholders on Monday.
Amazing.
Jim, that is NOT acceptable, the bars must stay open!
Comrade Kristina
OK, how about bar exemption for your city?
Well now you're thinking like a "social conscience' fund. That usually ends well.
\t query_tool | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 1:30 pm | #
Why is it that those social conscience funds don't do so well? Just incomptenece, I think. Money is a form of power, in fact, the little power that us small folks might yield in this system. As investors, we have at least some responsibility in where we put our money. I can make decent yields trading crap stocks without having to resort to places where I would feel guilty, but to yack off about the corrupt system like he does and then lend money to it is lame.
Once again, does anybody know what's going on with BAC?
"If you reduce your amount of available credit by closing accounts - I think it can negatively affect your credit score, as it tends to raise your ratio of total borrowing to total available credit [smaller denominator], which goes into your FICO." -
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
It does, temporarily. But if you put the cards away, eventually the cc company will close the account, and that looks worse. (That's what my bank told be anyway.) You should look at all 3 of the cc trackers every year, they are fuckups. Notate and challenge everything fishy. After a year or two of prudence, your FICO should rise.
.
"Not professional advice. Cthulhu's alternative solution is to devour creditors, by the way; YMMV. ;)"
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
I'm restraining myself from posting the Motorhead classic "Eat the Rich" again.
Stay Dawg, I loves ya, even when I disagree with ya.
Any riots and/or panicking in Cali yet?
Is that a promise?
rent_to_own | 02.04.09 - 1:41 pm | #
I'm guessing he meant he's dropping you into the bozo filter.
1 currency sooner [yogi],
You are spot on. I've made a killing representing the VC, IPO bubble companies. After 18 VC backed company IPOsover the last 15 years, I can tell you I'd have a made a fortune if I had waited for the 180 day lockup to fall of the shares and then look for shorting opportunities. Of course, as a lawyer, I probably would've been disbarred. 16 of the 18 deals went south big time within 36 months. 10 are no longer even in business.
Anyone else watching the Daily Show and noticing that Jon Stewart (and his staff) really GET it?
I think everyone gets it. You think Obama's team doesn't know nationalization is the best answer? They do. But they are not the ones ordering the music.
People in US are not cynical enough. In most other countries where corruption is more visible, people understand that most decisions in the government are made not for the sake of the country, or its people, or the economy as a whole. They are made for the sake of the ruling elite, which may very well mean looting the people and stashing away the spoils.
Once again, does anybody know what's going on with BAC?
merciless | 02.04.09 - 1:42 pm | #
More sellers than buyers.
No funds do well, and most people drop their conscience easily. Remember the insane rush to drill all over?
rent_to_own | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 1:37 pm | #
dawg was pretty much the reason I installed CR companion. Some people should stick to stalking some 20something year-old and his multiple mortgages on THEIR OWN BLOG. I know there's some merit to not surpressing viewpoints and all, but there are some that just aren't worth reading.
Rob Dawg -- if nothing else, I raised my eyebrows when I saw that you were the one deciding to police "partisan attacks", as you certainly do not shy away from political comments, many of them critical of policies or politicans.
Where do you draw the line? Not that I'm going to adopt your system, I'm just curious how you think you're abiding by your own rules.
I don't follow politics. I need only follow the rantings to understand what is happening.
Judging by rent's rant, O is already deep into FAIL mode.
.
I find it amazing that no one seems to demand an estimate of job creation by month/year for each line item in the stimulus package.
I understand how the Speaker can make that mistake.
When you are working with such large numbers millions, billions, trillions, thousands can seem so small.
Back in the 80s my trading partner had a sing on his desk that said:
Was I supposed to sell a million or buy a billion?
He had the sign made when did a tax swap on some physical GNMAs for a banking client and forgot to cover one side of the position. The next morning we got a call from the head of the bond desk congratulating us on having A HUGE PAIR for leaving 50 mm uncovered over night and making 10 basis points.
Today a position like that would be unnoticed.
WAWAWA - left you a link on the last thread
That's right, keep fighting about nonsensical political ideology.
VC Ramen,
I could have retired years ago shorting clients and with other things I knew. Gotta sleep, though.
Thanks for that clarification, scone. I forgot that creditors will close unused accounts.
As a decidedly non-political poster on this board, can I suggest that we all agree that any leader of any political stripe, with enough motivation, effort, and support, can screw up a perfectly good nation?
I have had a couple of friends, a high level banker and a lawyer tell me that they believe we have already entered a depression -- that the metrics just haven't reflected it. Thoughts?
Once again, does anybody know what's going on with BAC?
merciless | 02.04.09 - 1:42 pm | #
Return of Red October for sure...
Allen C:
That was Christina Romer presentation on ARRP that CR posted on here about a month ago.
Can't understand how the estimates work when the Senate version is about 20% larger than the House version.
Jas Jain(Unrated) writes:
\t--
It is quite revealing which of my posts CR deletes and which ones he doesn't.
Jas
\t Jas Jain | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.04.09 - 1:31 pm | #
Hey everyone! A recession/depression money-saving tip. When changing the oil in my car, I use postings like this as a rag.
On my #2 from above.
OK, so VC isn't the correct answer. But my point is that we must encourage and provide funding for entrepreneurship. Funding has all but dried up for those looking to start/expand new businesses. We will not recover without this investment.
Depressed Whiner:
Thoughts?
New to CR comments board?
Timmy's gonna have to bail on that lovefest with Pelosi and get back on the switch here.
Bye, bye.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:38 pm | #
Now, I am not so depressed anymore. Hope you stick to your words this time.
Basel Too - my thoughts exactly - lol
DOWN GOES FRAZIER
DOWN GOES FRAZIER
What's with the dog pile on Dawg? It's easy enough to ignore political leanings.
Basel Too,
No. Just trying to spur the conversation away from politics and focus it on the topic at hand. The man is the man is the man is the man. Notwithstanding technical defintions, I believe we are getting there (depression), just not there yet. Just want a survey of the thoughts of others. Where are we?
Timmy's gonna have to bail on that lovefest with Pelosi and get back on the switch here.
Timmy's weekend is Wednesdays...
Depressed Whiner writes:
I have had a couple of friends, a high level banker and a lawyer tell me that they believe we have already entered a depression -- that the metrics just haven't reflected it. Thoughts?
Is the lawyer me by any chance? Is the banker every person at goldman sachs I work with by any chance?
I suggest that we all agree that any leader of any political stripe, with enough motivation, effort, and support, can screw up a perfectly good nation?
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
We're all screwups here, Cthulhu knows. I wouldn't want mine to be held against me. And most of us got caught up in the boom frenzy, one way or another. I used to be a card-carrying member of the 'real estate is a good investment' club. As Pogo said, "we have met the enemy and he is us."
American Can,
Don't think its you. But I am interested in hearing your thoughts and what you've heard from GS personnel.
Discussing whether or not we're in a depression reminds me of December 2007, when we were discussing whether or not we're in a recession.
Dawg says some good stuff. I skip all political rants. If it bothers you, I suggest the same.
"Or arguing with our host about the definition of 'sticky' in economic terms."
By the way, rent to own, prices are lubricated this time.
I have lots of friends in real estate and owners of auto dealerships (Ford, Suzuki, Mazda) that have gone TU in the last 90 days. Also, a tech guy w an MBA from good school who worked at a large insuror is now selling Hondas. Amazing anecdotal evidence
BAC - wants be be like C... always has... always will.
The infinite call option.
rent_to_own
instead of unloading on Rob Dawg, whos opinion i value even when we disagree
may i suggest you pick one opinion and dispute it, with cordiality, please
i think Rob Dawg has a legit point when people (like me) sometimes go off the deep end on political discussions like i did regarding mccain born in panama and obama born in kenya
on the other hand you have a point (which i share) about when is it political, and whats fair for one should be fair for all
long-short, lets not get put out with each other
its gonna be a long deep painful depression, and im off my meds
Depressed Whiner:
The reason for my comment is that the consensus of this board is that the US is already in a Depression. There are several on here that are preparing for Mad Max types of situations...
One way or another, this does not end well.
Depressed Whiner writes:
I have lots of friends in real estate and owners of auto dealerships (Ford, Suzuki, Mazda) that have gone TU in the last 90 days
.
It would be great if everybody would identify the general geographic area they're talking about-- would make the observations that much more useful. Just a suggestion.
i second scone's suggestion that anecdotes be accompanied by a city, region or state.
scone writes:
Depressed Whiner writes:
"It would be great if everybody would identify the general geographic area they're talking about-- would make the observations that much more useful. Just a suggestion."
Because when it comes to systemic collapse, "it's all local"!
This just says it all:
BAC Market Cap.= roughly $25b
If that is not obvious to what is really transpiring then it will never be.
You could buy it outright (gain control for as little as $12b) and there are no takers.....
I guess we do need rocket scientists afterall...
Ciao
MS
"It would be great if everybody would identify the general geographic area"
Somewhere east of the Pacific and west of the Atlantic.
RE and Auto are in the SE. Insuror is in Texas. Austin, Texas imnsho is going to fall through the ring of its sphincter and get a case of the dribbling diarrhea in 2009 and into early 2010. Totally VC and stock market driven wealth and lots of poseurs.
I need only follow the rantings to understand what is happening.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:45 pm | #
"The speeches of the President are the ravings of a clown..."
P.Ochs
GE- 10 handle shortly
market opens 1 hour
"Because when it comes to systemic collapse, "it's all local"!
Gavshire Hathaway"
Local to earth.
Elvis,
But what about Memphis?
BAC is getting smoked today...
Ken Lewis = Madoff??
And Tupelo? We can't forget about Tupelo. Godsakes man!
Depressed Whiner
Some here thought the Some Inconvenient Truths paper by David Rosenberg was pretty good, for what it's worth. I'd link it, but am lazy.
BAC is getting smoked today...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:03 pm | #
It's only down 50 cents. Geez, get a grip!
unfortunately there are hundreds, if not, thousands of Madoff's who were just a bit better in hiding the scheme. Those begin to appear as the "happy DJIA" goes lower and lower.
Ciao
MS
And Chicago? As the snow flies
On a cold and gray Chicago mornin
A poor little baby child is born
In the ghetto ...
What a surprise! CNBC is worshipping excess today.
How American of them to cheerlead for the bank CEOs.
crispy&cole writes:
BAC is getting smoked today...
Ken Lewis = Madoff??
BofA has had one of the biggest fleets of corporate aircraft on Wall Street and had been reluctant to talk about it in the past. The fleet includes 7 corporate jets, 2 falcon corporate jets and 5 gulfstreams, each valued between $45 and $50 million.
BofA will also divest itself from one of two corporate apartments in New York City. One of those is located at the Time Warner Center.
Good time to sell...
Actually, I live in Tahiti, but I want to know what is happening outside of Paradise once in awhile while I am hanging on the beach.
My feeling is that we are NOT quite in a depression, at least by the GD I standards.
However, we are on our way there for a multitude of reasons.
I also believe that it is unavoidable at this point.
Deflation for everything, but food is in the cards and that sucks for 99.5% of the world. It may also suck for the remainder, if the rest ever take up the pitchforks and torches.
As for me and mine, I believe that we probably won't reach Mad Max, but we will come very close to meeting HIM!
Ken Lewis = Madoff??
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:03 pm | #
CC - good to have you back.
And it's: FED = Madoff
Fixed it for ya.
How American of them to cheerlead for the bank CEOs.
bearly | 02.04.09 - 2:06 pm | #
I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the best talent is "going to go" if they don't get bonuses.
I am posting from the only city that matters.
Obama was not born in Chicago, nor in a Ghetto.
"Scotty, bail me out."
Startrak
Hide something in plain sight and it often will be missed.
Saving the economy here and abroad isn't in the works. Destroying it is. You can't cobble together a new system from a failed old system until the old system has been wiped clean.
A little unrest, arms channeled to the right faction, a government toppling here and there. Presto chango the dreaded NWO becomes reality.
I'm not so sure this isn't a bad thing. The planet is in serious trouble. We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system. We need a lower standard(consumable)of living and more sustainable approaches. The battle between the entrenched money interests and the bringers of change is being waged.
Nationalism destroys the ability of the future to become something different. More cooperation and less ascendancy of the west might be necessary. Getting to this new world is fraught with risks and very well may be unattainable. The forces that believe in a single world government figured out there won't be a tomorrow worth having if they didn't act now. Act now they did. Wait and see is the only option for the commentariat.
"I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the best talent is "going to go" if they don't get bonuses."
Strip clubs and make shift bordellos.
TG-10: Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association
Anyone good with shorthand...
and obama born in kenya
A-HA!!!!
You finally admit it!
.
NorCal is in Depression,but early days yet.
VA, the state the believes, just changed the CC law to allow you to carry in places that serve alchol
Posted live from The Only City That Matters (TOCTM)
Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
What exactly?
Canned soup, guns, and ammo, as well as some backwoods land in N. Dakota?
Nova,
Yakima, Washington? Yaks are cool.
Nancy Pelosi...what a putz
David Rosenberg's
paper explains why he thinks we are currently in a depression.
Thanks for the link Speed.
"backwoods land in N. Dakota?
OCDan"
Too cold there. I recommend Georgia.
anon,
One thing you nailed, if we do not open the system for extraplanetary resources - energy in particular - Malthus wins by default.
OCDan,
"Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?"
Perhaps he said:
It's time, too. Bye!
Nostrovia,
One World Government? You start talking about that around the Rapturites and they smile and get ready for the big airlift to begin.
Re: take the world out of depression.
Recession, depression, pretty soon your talking chaos and the end of the world; who cares?
sexy derivative - I went to the CR 7 step program and I failed...still addicted
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 1:24 pm | #
Crispy, that's a twelve step program. But don't do the other five steps, we love you here. BTW- the longer I think about it, the more respectful I am that you took the effort to do the whistle-blowing.
can i get some education please
several above talked about hw the bond market is on fire
there was reference to a recent 120 basis point move
i understood that the secondary market value of a bond moves inversely to the ongoing trend in interest rates
this would mean if interest rates rise tomorrow, all the bonds that got issued at lower rates yesterday loose vale (capital depreciation)
is this view wrong?????
so the poster above, saying bonds are "on fire" doesnt mean its all good, rather, it means the bond house is burning down, right?
warren is in the market for coffins
Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
He said that 90 days ago, too.
.
"Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
What exactly?"
Prefered shares of blue chip companies yelding 7 to 10 % annualy. He forgot to mention that you & I won't be able to get those. Because let's face it,
Neither of us is WB.
peak altruism = c&c!
The planet is in serious trouble. We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system.
That is never going to happen.
At least not in this civilization-collapse cycle.
You could not repress the world populace enough in order to deal with the socioeconomic consequences of throwing the entire world GDP at that sort of thing.
It would be easier to just kill off 3/4 of the world's population and continue to live large on Mother Earth.
Which is unfortunately probably what will happen.
Yeah, that bond thingie is tricky. License to kill and all.
Did CSC and Jas ever shack up?
ON TOPIC: (politics)
I disagree with most of what dawg says, but he's "excellent" nonetheless. The Law and Economics crowd (Chicago, Posner) would have you believe their voodoo is science, but see zero at 1:17
A bit of research -
'Not every community in Virginia allows alcohol sales. (The location where bourbon originated is also "dry.") The annual report indicates if a county allows liquor-by-the-drink or if it is dry. In Virginia, 100% of the cities are "wet," reflecting the influence of the hospitality industry whre people are concentrted. Dry counties in 2001 were Appomattox, Bland, Botetourt, Buchanan, Campbell, Carroll, Charlotte, Craig, Dickenson, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Grayson, Green, Halifax, Henry, Highland, King William, Lee, Louisa, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Montgomery, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Pulaski, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Surry, Tazewell, Warren, Washington, Wise, and Wythe.'
The "ABC" of Legal Liquor in Virginia
Yeah, that bond thingie is tricky. License to kill and all.
Depressed Whiner | 02.04.09 - 2:14 pm
Plus the numbers are tricky. Was there a 009? I think the only double digits you get with Bond is in the sequels...
Yves over at Naked Capitalism has given up too.
Dear God, let's just kiss the US economy goodbye. It may take a few years before the loyalists and permabulls throw in the towel, but the handwriting is on the wall.
anyway, the guy who tried blewing wistle on Mad.doff in 90's has promisse to blew another at least 1 bl ponzi scheme tomorrow.
just wait for Sec raid reports i the morning.
p.s. wonder who will it be this time?
Hmm. Lyondell managed to get DIP financing after all:
Lyondells loan came with 13 percent interest and 7 percent in fees. Some of its lenders may end up getting 20 percent on their one-year investment in the loan, which matures Dec. 15, according to a report from Standard & Poors....
The largest participants in Lyondells loan were UBS AG, with $770 million; Apollo Management LP with $710 million; Cerberus Capital Management LP with $237.5 million; and ABN Amro Holding NV with $230 million. Silver Point Capital LP, Angelo Gordon & Co. and Appaloosa each contributed $200 million.
Why are the money center banks going to piddle with small consumer loans when they can get 13% interest and 7% fees for super priority DIP financing?
rent_to_own | 02.04.09 - 2:16 pm
Well, then you can CC everywhere then. Sort of.
I will repeat myself, I prefer bondage.
Just heard Barry Rotholtz on NPR. He said things are bad.
What will Dawg Do?
Did CSC and Jas ever shack up?
Anonymous | 02.04.09 - 2:15 pm | #
No Jas is engaged to that German Sausage - Werner.
Comrade de Chaos(Unrated) writes:
\t"Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
Did he also say that he was a paper boy in a small town in Nebraska? Because that's just as useful.
Oops, I meant his "compute model" definition: an obfuscatory device intended to enable massive fraud. (approx.)
NPR, just reported it was 10 below in hell.
Rosenberg's piece is very well written, too. Most all the topics in it have been touched upon here, but he ties it all together in a strong narrative. This was the most interesting part to me as it seems to suggest no bond market crash, counter to the prevailing wisdom:
Risings savings rate will be incredibly deflationary
The process of a secular rise in the US personal savings rate and the dampening effect this will have on aggregate demand will be incredibly deflationary for some time. While fiscal stimulus will indeed cushion the blow, the mathematical reality is that the federal government must lift its share of the economy by 10 percentage points of GDP just to fully offset a 1 percentage point contraction in consumer spending. While there is growing concern over government bond supply to fund the record fiscal deficit, there is ample room on bank balance sheets for the new issuance, and the Fed has already hinted that it too will emerge as a buyer of Treasuries if market rates were to back up, as they have been for the past few
weeks. Moreover, the expansion of the government debt must be viewed in the context of the contraction of private sector debt, and so on balance, the growth in total economy-wide credit has actually slowed to 6% (year-over-year) from nearly 9% a year ago.
s this view wrong?????
so the poster above, saying bonds are "on fire" doesnt mean its all good, rather, it means the bond house is burning down, right?
mock turtle | 02.04.09 - 2:13 pm | #
Yup, about summarizes it.
mock-
that's how it should work......
but I won't bore you with the reasons why it has not....so far.
Ciao
MS
Broward Horne wrotes: (to mock turtle)
and obama born in kenya
A-HA!!!!
You finally admit it!
--
mock back to broward
on the advice of counsel i decline to answer
on account that mccain is a panamanian
(said in good natured jest)
good day BH!
The Treasury Yield Curve is looking better every day and yields are almost back on track. Nonetheless, the chart on Bloomberg showing Bear losses with Federal Reserve is not very nice:
Bond Ticker - Bonds Center - Yahoo! Finance
Seems to me that JPM should take all the losses and be called a bad bank, or a nationalized bank, and all the crooks at JPM should be fired or placed in prison, along with Bernanke and Paulson!
promise to blow another at least 1 bl ponzi scheme tomorrow.
p.s. wonder who will it be this time?
Federal Gov't.
.
Prefered shares of blue chip companies yelding 7 to 10 % annualy. He forgot to mention that you & I won't be able to get those. Because let's face it,
Neither of us is WB.
Comrade de Chaos | 02.04.09 - 2:14 pm | #
It's not that hard to find bonds yielding above 7%, in pretty decent companies. All I have is my ameritrade account, and I've found some decent offerings. Don't need to be WB to buy them. Also, don't buy into HOG bonds just cuz they yield 15%!
"We need massive investment in a space program that starts to colonize our solar system."
Perhaps you missed the memo, but not only are none of the rest of the planetoids habitable, they are actively and extremely harmful to carbon based life forms.
Nostrovia,
Louie Sez,
Dude, you should check out The Weather Channel, weather.com or RGE Monitor for better forecasts.
Sometimes when I listen to NPR I feel like I am in hell. Other time, I feel so warm and fuzzy that I am listening to "public" radio. Often, after listening to NPR, I go buy yet another Prius and send money to Africa.
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.04.09 - 1:24 pm | #
Nice plan. The problems are so overwhelming that no one knows where to begin. Imagine walking into your home in the ninth ward in NOLA after Katrina. You walk around in a daze then you sit down and cry. THEN you get up and start salvaging what you can. Or you just walk away and start fresh someplace else. That dichotomy is what we are witnessing in our leadership.
@Rob Dawg- I support Rob Dawg staying and sharing his viewpoint. The rabid response to him is an overreaction. He doesn't represent all that is wrong in America. He does have valuable insights and disagreeing with those can be accomplished in a respectful manner.
Fear should be released after warning you to pay attention.
"It's time, too. Bye"
Acrostics or Foucault?
I'm starting to discount the drama noise in the blogosphere. I suspect there's an attempt to grab eyeballs and increase personal revenues. I mean, who reads this stuff when it's not a crisis? Some of these guys are making hay while the sun shines, it seems to me.
Fix the healthcare system. This might mean nationalized healthcare immediately.
I guess the problem I have when people say "the government needs to fix the health care system" is simply that our government hasn't demonstrated that it's really capable of fixing things.
If the government continues trying to fix things without properly assessing its own abilities to actually fix things, we're going to end up in a worse downward spiral.
Will it really do any good if the health care system ends up like the post office/DMV/public school system/housing market?
People seem to start with the assumption that if the government acts there will necessarily be improvement.
I don't see that evidence supports this conclusion.
It seems to me that if you have a government that manages its finances so poorly that it is bleeding money out of every orifice, expanding it is simply going to lead to greater loss and harm no matter whether it's public or private.
What's wrong with saying:
"Do the things that you are currently responsible for more competently before you begin asking for more money and power."
Can anybody name a successful business that puts the people who lose the most money at the top of the food chain?
It seems to me like this is a matter of reason, not ideology.
MS
thanks, was wunderin if i had it backwards
ps did you see discussion a nite or two ago between dryfly and C&C i believe (may have wrong posters)
one of the two had confidential insight the chinese are balking at further purchases of us treasuries
rent_to_own | 02.04.09 - 2:20 pm
Either do I other than the usual theories that I am sure you already know.
hell aint that bad....Adam decided he would rather live in hell with Eve, than live in Paradise without her??
Buffet says buy...his way of thinking is no longer valid
Elvis,
You are one funny entertainer. I mean yeah, the Karate moves on stage are a little much, but heck ...
I mean, who reads this stuff when it's not a crisis? Some of these guys are making hay while the sun shines, it seems to me.
scone | 02.04.09 - 2:22 pm
I always check to see if they are running a fund or selling MRE's myself.
Buffett (that's right two "t's" at the end, has made a fortune creating and selling pieces of paper at inflated value. Why do you think BH bought Clayton Homes, a vertically integrated mobile home manufacturer. Hint: It wasn't because of the really cool single wides.
Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.04.09 - 2:20 pm | #
Lot's of resources in them thar hills. Ice has been found on the moon and Mars. Oxygen/water can be derived from the ice and colonization(limited) could be the result. Getting of this planet is a solution and a direction for humanity to aspire to.
Forgive my misspent youth and thousands of hours lost in sci fi.
You know... I think that most reasonable democrats and republicans could agree on a lot of things.
I usually vote democratic.. and I really like Obama.. although I'm worried that wall street is going to convince him to do some very stupid things...
But the rest of the politicians? GARBAGE... TRASH
Pelosi, Boehner, cantor, reid, mcconnell.. whoever.. .they SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK
I feel bad for Obama.. I think that unlike Bush, he really does want to do what is right and he's a very bright guy.. but he's working with CLOWNS.. f-ing clowns
The democrats are almost worse than the republicans.. they let bush trample all over the constitution for 8 years and didn't do anything... COWARDLY LOSERS
ac,
"Can anybody name a successful business that puts the people who lose the most money at the top of the food chain?"
OOOO! OOOO! Mr Kotare! Shiti Bank.
Oh, you said successful...damn.
Nostrovia,
Maybe the US government can put the $800 billion into zygo5 - apparently the system is right 90% of the time. Ha.
Yeah... I'm dumping Warren and going long on Jimmy.
NorkaWest / thanx for the re
This is a depression. And this good-bank, bad-bank thing is kind of laughable. Good banks are only created by discipline. A bank is good if, over time, it can lend money and get a return on the money.
If you simply throw all the bad assets into a bad bank, you haven't solved the problem: the relative trustworthiness of various debtors and the relative ability of creditors to discern who is a good credit risk and who is not.
I have to note, despite differing with him materially, I like Rob Dawg.
I do not like rent_to_own or Werner.
Re: "Perhaps you missed the memo, but not only are none of the rest of the planetoids habitable"
You need to suggest that the planetoids are not habitable like Earth, however, with TARP there may be options to grant in terms of life support...
Reading The Bad Bank Assets Proposal: Even Worse Than You Imagined « naked capitalism
puts me in mind of those protesting that O is being called a failure far too soon. FYI, a good number of us foresaw O's failure a year and more ago.
Forgive my misspent youth and thousands of hours lost in sci fi.
anon | 02.04.09 - 2:25 pm | #
Dyson sphere or Ringworld, here we come!
"It seems to me that if you have a government that manages its finances so poorly that it is bleeding money out of every orifice, expanding it is simply going to lead to greater loss and harm no matter whether it's public or private."
The real problem is that people don't think about government the right way.. WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE THE GOVERNMENT.... but we don't act like it.
Government in and of itself is never the problem.. the way it's run is often a problem. Government can be as good or bad as the popular will permits.
People get what they ask for.. as I recall bush got re-elected after an absolutely dismal performance.. heck 20% of people still think he was just great!
anon(Unrated) writes:
Getting of this planet is a solution and a direction for humanity to aspire to.
It will at best take a few fancy mice and put them in the golden cage, and leave the rest of the feeders forgotten in the back of the closet to die.
anon writes
@Rob Dawg- I support Rob Dawg staying and sharing his viewpoint. The rabid response to him is an overreaction. He doesn't represent all that is wrong in America
There was no "rabid" response. He was just called out for his conflicting statements.
"I like Rob Dawg.
I do not like rent_to_own or Werner.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins"
I like talking on the phone, signing yearbooks, and soft puppies.
I do not like mean people, brussel sprouts, and gender surprises during sex.
Pelosi is as dumb as an ox (and not much more attractive), but I should cut her some slack on this one- after the last year, it really is hard to keep track of your number magnitudes.
"Reading Page not found « naked capitalism you.html puts me in mind of those protesting that O is being called a failure far too soon. FYI, a good number of us foresaw O's failure a year and more ago."
What was the alternative?
We only get 2 options..... besides some who might say Ron Paul.. Obama was clearly the best canidate by a wide margin.
NorkaWest / thanx for the re
mock turtle | 02.04.09 - 2:26 pm | #
Here is a link for bond benchmark prices and yields.
Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds
If Obama is a failure, don't blame me-I voted for CRbot.
(likes obama but concerned will bend to wall street..democrats, COWARDLY LOSERS
Osama bin Paulson | 02.04.09 - 2:26 pm | )
im usually dem, usually, not always
but have to admit i agree with you...wonderin if obama is strong enuf to stand up to wall street
hey osama bin paulson,
im old and have noticed thru several cycles
that when the repubs win, they win, and the media says "dems must support (example) reagans policies etc)
but when the dems win, media says "must have bipartisan support... govern from the center!!!
go figure, must be liberal media bias
We find ourselves on a global economic battlefield, out of ammo, bayonets taken away from us, supply lines cut, fighting bare handed against and surrounded by the enemy. Problem is the enemy is us. It is amazing the rest of the world loaned us money to enable us to build weapons with which to try to control them in the past. Now, it's down right lunacy. Hegemon, meet the new boss.
sdtfs | 02.04.09 - 2:29 pm | #
soon as I get this scrith formula worked out...
Elvis(Excellent) writes:
I like talking on the phone, signing yearbooks, and soft puppies.
I do not like mean people, brussel sprouts, and gender surprises during sex.
Red Meat is funnier as a comic strip, Milkman Dan.
"We only get 2 options..... besides some who might say Ron Paul.. Obama was clearly the best canidate by a wide margin."
There were many options. Its called the primaries. I favored Ron Paul, but I think Kucinich and Gravel would have been better than Obama. But I admit, Obama sure sounds nice, and he's make some promising first steps. But I want to see follow through.
"I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the best talent is "going to go" if they don't get bonuses."
Half of them will go to frivolous lawsuit industry, extorting money from anyone who still will have money left.
The other half will work as hired hitmen for those who have money, killing those who dare to sue them.
Unless I misunderstand your meaning of the word 'talent'. There wasn't anyone on Wall Street talented in the traditional sense. Talented trader is an oxymoron.
I haven't caught up with all threads so my apologies if this has already been posted.
This is bold statement:
... Karthik Ramanathan, the Treasury's acting assistant secretary for financial markets, said the gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs....
Elvis you'd better stay hot for the late show.
Wall Street is picking on Obama because he's black.
soon as I get this scrith formula worked out...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:34 pm | #
Maybe it's Nessus on the controls, not Timmy.
The Talented Mr. Madoff.
Gender surprises - also known as the Singapore Sling by some.
Here's the game folks. Lemme hold your money. I'll keep it safe and make it grow for you. Trust me. I'm smarter than you. See the imprimatur of my education and station in life. How do you think I got here?
Mock-
No I missed it..however that would explain the indirect bid (i.e. the Fed) having to step up to the plate...
As I see it there are three nuclear options with that market: China, Japan, and the U.K. in that order. One will push it.....although one can make the argument of M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction) we're not talking about actual physical destruction. It comes down to protectionism.....my guess is that China does it slowly and starts the ball rolling.
This is why I say the argument about long term notes has nothing to do with any sort of implied yield. Yields can be whatever they want.....when you can't sell them to collect you have a problem.
We should see this soon. It's already started IMO.
Ciao
MS
This is a depression. And this good-bank, bad-bank thing is kind of laughable. Good banks are only created by discipline. A bank is good if, over time, it can lend money and get a return on the money.
Yep.
Credit comes from responsible, constructive, mutually beneficial behavior. Nothing else.
There is nothing the government can do to forcibly create credit.
In fact force is almost its exact opposite.
We might have to find this out the hard way as our government increasingly attempts to replace cooperation with forcible redistribution of assets.
Our economy functions because of the efficiency that comes from the financial manifestation of cooperation - credit.
Attempting to replace credit with government force and coercion is like trying to replace the oil in your engine with sand.
Obama's alternative was that old guy who wanted to "stop the decline of the house prices". And the Miss Alaska runner-up who had a middling career as a teevee sports anchor.
So anyone saying they did not vote Obama voted for that dream team.
Giggle.
Been working too much this week - did Conjure's clock hit midnight? Which thread - thank you.
Which is unfortunately probably what will happen.
mal | 02.04.09 - 2:14 pm | #
Worst case scenario. I give us 30% chance in coming out the other side intact. Always been a sucker for the underdog.
and leave the rest of the feeders forgotten in the back of the closet to die.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:29 pm | #
Undoubtedly. We all are going to die. Be good to think mankind will continue.
You ever tear up after watching something performed by a person done so beautifully that it momentarily transformed your world? Music, dance, athletics, art...I feel this way when I think about humanity escaping the bonds of Earth.
I'm not religious but I do believe something exists after the cells die. If I'm wrong and it's all just blackness and done is done then such was life.
Thread Music.
controls have been set for the center of the sun - Google Videos
Obama was clearly the best canidate by a wide margin."
briwerk | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 2:35 pm | #
The best "can I date?". Keep it clean.
"gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year"
What? Oh, wait, it's a quote from the acting assistant Secretary, it has no credibility.
Wow.
.
"Elvis you'd better stay hot for the late show.
1 currency sooner [yogi]"
Yogi, While I'm flattered, my preference is for women.
"If you simply throw all the bad assets into a bad bank, you haven't solved the problem: the relative trustworthiness of various debtors and the relative ability of creditors to discern who is a good credit risk and who is not.
Joe Strummer | 02.04.09 - 2:27 pm | #
i couldn agree more
i wrote a polite but hard nosed email to the people who i worked for (and with), on the obama campaign, and said prez obamas good bank bad bank proposal is crazy
obama has made some, is making some mistakes...the key is can he adjust, learn, move left move right etc
some think they know already tha he is a sucess or a failure
ill withold my judgeement for about 6 months
"sexy derivative writes:
Comrade de Chaos(Unrated) writes:
"Did anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
"
that wasn't me saying, however I did notice what he said, and I agree.
if you have DEEP pockets and ability to bargain, it is a good time to hunt!
wouldn't count on immediate results though.
Obama's lack of economic expertise was never really questioned. He just happened to be running against a man who had absolutely ZERO economic expertise.
I think this pork barrel bill and his choice of Geithner will prove to be enormous failures.
\tDid anyone notice the story that Buffet says it is time to buy?
OCDan | 02.04.09 - 2:10 pm | #
He said that because he's looking for some bagholders.
anon(Unrated) writes:
Undoubtedly. We all are going to die. Be good to think mankind will continue.
IMO -- the Great Silence is because the inside world is infinite, the outside world endless, empty and expensive to move through.
Why would you want to get away from Earth and attenuate & lag your band?
Everyone blacks out to save energy and gather ambient radiation. Everyone clumps because clumping provides wider, faster bands.
Outer space is for robots and hermits.
Treasury notes are investments...you don't plan to keep them forever...even to maturity in most cases. If you are then you will be in for quite the surprise.
Those notes represent nothing more than buying equities in the 10-14k range.
Of course this is simplifying it quite a bit...I'd post more about this but I have to run...
Ciao
MS
I'm not religious but I do believe something exists after the cells die.
I don't find myself feeling too religious these days, so I tell myself things like: Well, I was dead back in 1900 and that really wasn't so bad.
Wow. Whoever put up the link for the committee investigating the SEC deserves MANY THANKS.
This is fantastic stuff.
Clowns at the circus would be better at regulation than the SEC.
The ex-prosecuter on the panel is a pit bull with killer instincts.