my MSA (Cedar Rapids, IA) had house price increases according to the NAR report released this week. Go midwest and!
Of course Cedar Rapids also never had home price growth above 3% between 2003 and 2008. I remember in 2005 people were griping about how our houses don't appreciate like coastal areas. Ha!
I was at a bank's wealth management division the other day
- offices were full of new young hires, empty desks, some eating lunch out of tupperware, all still going through the motions dressing up, well going through the motions in general
- got stuck in a short conversation about the markets/economy. "Well at least the new reports today were better than expected"
- I either didn't have the heart, or the energy to give a seminar about the top down situation
Also, found a lot of anecdotal reports on Macy's layoffs: everyone who didn't hate them for destroying an existing brand, now hates them for laying off a friend. Previous layoff rounds took out the top performers/earners. Recent ones were elimination of whole divisions. They are now a ship without a rudder
Also, learned that Panasonic (lost $4bn) has in recent months moved to streamline American operations. Firing Panasonic USA people, outsourcing distribution/sales/etc to several companies for the whole country in their office division. In the 80s it was "the Japanese are coming" and now it is "the Japanese are leaving"... autos, electronics, investing, ... 40% of Japanese investors think there is a risk of a US default
==
Falling rents and falling wages would be the top economic stories of 2009 as the US economy enters depression.
Another thing that we can look forward to is that CR would be proven wrong on all the important forecasts on CRE, housing and the economy. he does not understand "It is the debt, Stupid!" economy and the fact that depressions are caused by "bankers' mischief." The US never had worse bankers in its history. These simple concepts are beyond economists' ability.
Too bad commodities collapsed.
Elvis | 02.04.09 - 5:10 pm | #
One of the primary employers in Cedar Rapids IA is Quaker Oats - they benefit from a recession (since they sell inferior goods) and collapsing commodities prices (lower cost to make crunch berries).
The other major employer is Rockwell Collins (aviation/electronics engineering) and they will likely be hurting as military and commercial contracts reduce/vanish.
Did you see that Paul Krugman bit about deflation? The anticipation of declining rents that even the landlord predicts change people's attitudes about signing long leases, ect.
Just got a lease renewal from my landlord (Manhattan), bumped it up $100 (2%). Can't blame them though, I'm sure there are plenty of people who take the increase just to avoid moving. I'm not one of them. I'm probably going to reduce my rent by 1/4 to 1/3 in May just by moving.
I once was mod on a bulletin board that had occasional troll problems. It was open source software for the bulletin board, so I asked someone (not involved with the BB) to write me a plugin for the board software that would enable me, as admin, to "mask" a user.
Not ban them, but simply mask their posts from being seen by anyone else but themselves.
They kept troll-posting away, unread by anyone (except me, the admin, of course), and eventually got bored because they never got any responses. (Cause no one was reading 'em! And they hadn't a clue!)
It worked like a charm. Much better than banning, which only makes trolls angry and spurs them to keep coming back with different screen names. But it's a response to trolling that isn't about the admin visibly throwing his power around, so I guess people don't ever think of it.
Kind of a shame about Panasonic... at least, years ago, they used to have excellent quality products at a slightly lower price tier than Sony.
mal | 02.04.09 - 5:19 pm | #
They still make some of the best values in flat screen TVs, per consumer reports.
When I was unemployed a few years ago, I got cold-called by a recruiter looking for a Financial Planner. I said that's not what I do. He said. Doesn't matter. Come in for an interview.
If that doesn't work, threaten to move out.
rich | 02.04.09 - 5:20 pm | #
I tried that over the weekend with our landlord and it was a no-go.
She'll probably not be able to rent within
4 months, lose the house and it will sit
vacant for at least a year after that, judging
from what else is going on in the hood.
I have a Panasonic walkman (walkman - cassette) from 1984 that still works. Was dropped from heights, stepped on, etc etc.
mal | 02.04.09 - 5:21 pm | #
You're old - I lost track of my walkman knockoff. Do you still have any 8 track?
A close relative's best friend has almost her entire retirement tied up here. They've been promising that you just throw in a giant lump sum, and you get guaranteed returns of like 15%. This did happen for a while, but now the returns are being lowered.
It smacks, to me, of what Madoff did in his pre-confession years, having to scale back returns when he couldnt drag more money into the Ponzi.
White House economics director Lawrence Summers urged swift passage of a stimulus bill and pledged further taxpayer funds for major banks, warning that the economy is in danger of sustained declines in consumer prices.
Let me get this straight. The government will hand over taxpayer money to banks so that the banks can lend the money at interest back to the taxpayer so that the taxpayer won't have to suffer through "sustained declines in CONsumer prices."
Wealth Management : those remaining are working extra hard to convince their dupes that "it's coming back," and to "dollar cost average," while stocks are low.
Justifies the 1.0% asset salary.
People : just fire these losers at this point. Even if they did know the intricacies and rules, that was in the pre-Calvinball era. Now, they have been revealed for the talentless leeches they are.
I am already paying below market for my (small) unit. I do occasionally check listings for my area to see if there are better deals.
I generally keep my consumption low and my savings high. Apparently, this makes me a deeply antisocial and unpatriotic person who needs to be punished.
Not knockin man, I'm an 80's child too, lol. I'm listening to Echo and the Bunnymen even now on Pandora - sounds better than the scratched up cassette.
Intown Atlanta is awash in 6,000 unsold condos, according to the local real estate consultant Haddow & Co. Just 66 new units sold in the second half of 2008, Haddow & Co. says. For the year, 645 new condos changed hands, which is 76 percent below the average of the previous eight years.
Cedar Rapids CRE and residential prices did not go down after the flood (is it too soon to say it was a wash?). About 2,000 houses got wiped out, but very few people/businesses moved away. SLR camera sales were also through the roof and I couldn't count the number of vans & buses of people traveling in to help with flood recovery (who also spent a significant amount of money at local restaurants/stores/etc).
We will catch up with the rest of the country when rockwell collins starts mass mailing pink slips (and Aegon insurance who employees several thousand people here).
Simple. People decide to get off the debt treadmill. Bernanke should fear that the next bubble is in debt defaults.
Jingle mail, jingle mail, jingle all the way. Oh what fun it is to run from your debt burden today. Keys in envelopes ring, giving bankers fright, what fun it is to walkaway and make your burden light. Oh, jingle mail, jingle mail...
TANTA posted a post on the personality of trolls that make censoring a blog neccesary..if someone has a link would you mind posting it..i think it was tagged as commentating
thanks
Wasn't someone some time 2 years ago ridiculed for talk of doubling up? Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.04.09 - 5:19 pm | #
That's putting it mildly and yet another confirmation of my reasons for departing. Bill rode me for years and now he highlights in bold some REIT comment as if it was a new concept just now coming to light. Just to make clear since there is so much speculation; I'm not pouting, I'm just gone. Simple, no histrionics. The world still turns. Enjoy.
In relation to complaints that Obama's pay cap would not apply to recipients of monies already disbursed under TARP, I decided to read some arcane 18th century document and found this odd line in a place called Article I Section 8:
"No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed."
"...so it would indicate that people are doubling up, tripling up, moving back to couches, moving back with mom and dad."
.
We'd call that a normal market in Portland.
Jas - I have read your posts for years, and agreed with much of what you have said. You have added much to the conversation...
However, you are now getting to the point of being annoying by attacking the host and blaming him for all the problems of the world. Not sure why you hate CR or the rest of the dopes so much but give it a rest.
Most of us pass by your posts without reading them because we know they have gone from analysis to attacks of the host.
srs is still range bound..although buying in 50's is profitable..when it blows no reason $100+ cant be seen again! Though casinos dont seem easy to figure out! my 2 srs cents
IYR does have some block buyers who seem to like it!
Jas getting annoying? C&C, you've departed from all bounds of credulity here. Reading Jas posts is like sniffing the delicate and ephemeral fragrance of just-blooming jasmine in the cool evening air of a lazy summer while your wife fellates you with GRATING LAMPREY EEL TEETH AUUGHHHGH
Wealth Management : those remaining are working extra hard to convince their dupes that "it's coming back," and to "dollar cost average," while stocks are low.
Averaging down is a great idea. It allows investors to profit from their losses.
If anyone wants a perfect example of baseless market cheerleading
My anecdote of person on the street cheerleading is:
"We have a(n investment) property in Yaletown, it's still really tough to find a place in Yaletown [a lie]. But now is not the time to sell"
either the market is tight, and it is a good time to sell or prices are falling at the fastest rate in history and accelerating and it's a really good time to sell while you still ca
Hey... so if you are a younger guy like me (32).. should I keep putting money into my 401K? I put in 10% a month which easily maxes me each year.... I figure I'll either have a nice nest egg in 30 years.. or it really wont mattter as there will be much worse problems
I tried that over the weekend with our landlord and it was a no-go.
She'll probably not be able to rent within
4 months, lose the house and it will sit
vacant for at least a year after that, judging
from what else is going on in the hood.
Comrade Tiberius
All you do is quit paying rent now. It takes her at least 6 months to get you out, if you know the law, and before that you have a new landlord...the bank. It takes them another 6 months to get you out for non-payment or they let you stay there for free because they don't want the foreclosure on their books. Easy street. Google it.
"40% of Japanese investors think there is a risk of a US default"
Maybe that's the reason for the record security refunds?
"A rock and a hard place: The Treasury announced that it would be offering a record $67 billion of long-term securities in the quarter, to refund $36.3 billion of securities that are maturing and to raise another $30.7 billion."
"
All you do is quit paying rent now. It takes her at least 6 months to get you out, if you know the law, and before that you have a new landlord...the bank. It takes them another 6 months to get you out for non-payment or they let you stay there for free because they don't want the foreclosure on their books. Easy street. Google it."
Or you could ask for a rent reduction and move it you can't come to an agreement. I know morals are old fashioned, but hey give it a try. It helps when you look in the mirror the next morning.
Gotta say that i enjoy reading Rob Dawg's posts,
as I do dryfly's and the late great MP. They do a good deal of service even when they're not 100%
right. They make you think what if.
I once was mod on a bulletin board that had occasional troll problems. It was open source software for the bulletin board, so I asked someone (not involved with the BB) to write me a plugin for the board software that would enable me, as admin, to "mask" a user.
Not ban them, but simply mask their posts from being seen by anyone else but themselves.
They kept troll-posting away, unread by anyone (except me, the admin, of course), and eventually got bored because they never got any responses. (Cause no one was reading 'em! And they hadn't a clue!)
It worked like a charm. Much better than banning, which only makes trolls angry and spurs them to keep coming back with different screen names. But it's a response to trolling that isn't about the admin visibly throwing his power around, so I guess people don't ever think of it. \t mal | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 5:17 pm | #
Mal, that is inspired!! I would love to see that option used more often. Back in the days when there used to be heavy breather or porn phone calls, I dealt with them by very quietly laying down the phone and going about my business. I pictured the guy going on and on, then getting increasingly anxious about what was happening, then having his anxiety overwhelm him and maybe him questioning, "is anyone there?" Then, finally, HIM having to hang up. It worked like a charm.
Look at the performance of TBT between Jan 15 and now. look at the rise. It's totally smooth, except for weird notching. Does this look like a controlled buy of treasuries to sustain yields, and does it look like whatever entity is buying them is failing to hold the relentless line?
We hear about the FDIC, but I bet the IRS is even busier
Tax receipts will be interesting
EvilHenryPaulson
.
That reminds me. Evil, how does the gummit know how big the underground economy is? Some arcane math voodoo?
Sue That's how you get rid of telemarketers. They all have a quota, so every 5 minutes or so say a single word (newer call centres only connect a telemarketer if it's a person and not voicemail that picks up)
Abu Dhabi banks rushed to tap government funds amid rising concern over the health of financial companies in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
In an attempt to insulate their economies and bail out banks from the worst of the global financial crisis, oil-rich sheikdoms in the Gulf are expected to increasingly draw on the foreign exchange reserves they built up in the past five years of growth..
I know morals are old fashioned, but hey give it a try. It helps when you look in the mirror the next morning.
Pissed Off In California
If she is losing it to the bank in four months what are you doing paying rent now? Why would she raise rent? Is she paying the bank their due? Morals are so conditional in a financial situation with this complexity. Who is hurt here and how and when and what is important to this monetary picture. Is the landlord scamming the bank? Probably. Is the landlord hurting the tenant with above market rent? Most likely. Morals? Please, due diligence is apropros not morals.
As a veteran of a number of departures from long-frequented message boards, I'd like to point out that quitting a message board is an event, not a process.
Go (which you state is your preference)or stay (which CA readers favor), but don't stick around just to say that you aren't here and to tell us again why you "left".
--
"...blaming him for all the problems of the world."
crispy&cole,
Evidence please. I have simply tried to point out CR's major mistakes w.r.t. CRE, housing and economic forecasts and at times he purposely deletes those posts that prove him wrong. He has problem with admitting mistakes. It is a big problem. I am willing to post specifics where he has been proven wrong, IMO. People have the right to know where CR has been wrong, no? Deflating Americans' egos, including CR's, makes me very unpopular.
"That's putting it mildly and yet another confirmation of my reasons for departing. Bill rode me for years and now he highlights in bold some REIT comment as if it was a new concept just now coming to light. Just to make clear since there is so much speculation; I'm not pouting, I'm just gone. Simple, no histrionics. The world still turns. Enjoy.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 5:31 pm | #
Hello, I must be going?
I never thought I'd hear you say, "My feelings are hurt because the blog owner disagreed with me and put me down and now is saying the same thing I was saying. So I'm going to stamp my little foot and go home."
That's Jas thinking. Except you're threatening to leave (for the second time today), and he never will.
I've had to drop rent 20% in Pasadena just to get a tenant. My old tenant moved out. I'm also seeing 10% drops in other area. This guy is a little behind, when it comes to new rates.
JP, Lots of money (gains / losses) flowing about. Lots of fraud being exposed. People who want to do a "tax protest", in part because of bailouts. Others in the press who evidently aren't paying their taxes until they are vetted by Obama. Nevermind their mission is to tax the income of every American citizen home and abroad. A lot of people simply can't afford to pay their taxes after being surprised last year.
scone, they really don't have a good idea. Can only do piecemeal estimation, and to that effect they also have to choose a dollar value for black market transactions (what's the price of a home cooked meal, or illegal drugs, or illegal services, or ...) There's been more effort lately to quantify environmental factors in terms of economics (what's the value of clean water, the cost of an animal going extinct, ...)
"If she is losing it to the bank in four months what are you doing paying rent now? Why would she raise rent? Is she paying the bank their due? Morals are so conditional in a financial situation with this complexity. Who is hurt here and how and when and what is important to this monetary picture. Is the landlord scamming the bank? Probably. Is the landlord hurting the tenant with above market rent? Most likely. Morals? Please, due diligence is apropros not morals."
A lot of assumptions there don't you think?
You're assuming that the landlord is scamming the bank. If they are running a scam then I agree the tenant should not be paying rent;actually they should be remitting their rent directly to the mortgage company in this case.
Tenant paying above market rent? Too bad they can attempt to re-negotiate and walk if they can't come to an agreement.
I'm actually about to renegotiate our rent and will walk if we can't come to an agreement.
Your original post mentioned none of the above, it simply stated don't pay rent.
I know people who have been on the receiving end of this type of advice and lost a year of rent and thousands in lawyer bills on a property that they legally owned and were paying a mortgage on.
The advice you gave is exactly why we sold our house rather than renting it out.
1) The cap applies only for executives of Banks in Distress.
2) The cap will get rid of incentive of Banks that are healthy to borrow Fed money for M&A purposes.
3) The cap will help to ensure the Gov money are applied where they should - LOANS
p.s. the argument in PORTFOLIO is valid only for executive that DO HAVE TALENT. If they would have talent, their banks would not be in distress!
I'm finding locally that our far-too-numerous rental complexes fail to compete with the glut of zero lot line 'villas' which are increasingly available.
No neighbors over head. Garage. Two master suites in a split plan. Pool. Skylights.
Most of the rental properties built here since '95 were designed for now-vanished market conditions. The flats are small, have vestigal balconies or terraces with a shallow outdoor storage closet. Rather stingy about windows. No elevator. Unassigned outdoor parking, or a distant garage for an additional fee. Developers promoted the crown moldings, the prewire for surround sound, or a lavish clubhouse.
In Sarasota, at least, a drop of 6% won't keep those places filled.
apparently how much money you make defines your talent.
Sadly that's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess
The average ER doctor is 1000x more valuable to society than any banker and makes a fraction of the money
I don't get all this "incentive" to participate in the TARP crap... if they dont need the money dont take it.. if that means they fail.. TOO FUCKING BAD
Oh yeah.. and if you dont like your pay being limited then dont beg for govt money
I'm an ass and a dope and reverting to American behavior when confronted with the mirror of Jas's truths. blah blah blah we all suck and deserve what we get...
apparently how much money you make defines your talent.
Sadly that's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess"
Well, usually capping is a bad idea because no single or party of human being is a good character to judge who should get and how much.
However, this case is an exemption because it is OUR money that gets redistributed, so naturally we should have a world in the process.
scone,
they really don't have a good idea. Can only do piecemeal estimation, and to that effect they also have to choose a dollar value for black market transactions...
.
I see. I suspected as much. So, if people seem to be doing o.k. as we go through this, despite little visible income, we'll have a notion of how much money is being hidden from the "revenuers." I'm thinking it could be a big chunk 'o change.
Hey liz, my husband actually went in for a job interview today, he said he thinks it went pretty well. They're building a new Wallyworld here in Lynn Haven. I have my fingers crossed, his being employed will make me infinitely more optimistic about the refinance. Working on my tax return tomorrow to get that started...
Oshkosh Corp. senior executives are taking 10% pay cuts as the specialty truck maker hunkers down in the recession.
"This is not easy. These people have families, mortgages and car payments. We hope these employment reductions are short-lived' Robert Bohn, chairman and CEO, said he has taken a 15% pay cut along with turning in country club membership and company car.
EHP - Going to disagree. I have some level of fear that Swiss. may go the way of Iceland. The Banks based there are leveraged (in debt) some 40X Swiss GDP. It a small country w/ little public wealth and few taxpayers. And, the money in all those vaults belongs to others.
"You're assuming that the landlord is scamming the bank. If they are running a scam then I agree the tenant should not be paying rent;actually they should be remitting their rent directly to the mortgage company in this case."
There's your trouble. The mtg company does not own it at that point. You are moral "to a fault", in this instance, and that does neither you nor anyone else good because it creates the very moral problem you espouse to correct by paying money to an entity that does not deserve it. Do they remit rents paid in error? Only if the mortgage company is a moral company. I have yet to see one of those. Anyway, I understand your point but would not say it is the only way to do business. The devil is in the details.
Anecdotal evidence is there is a lot of cash washing around in the economy, and I'm not just thinking drugs.
I read somewhere years ago, that there was 'way more folding paper money than expected, when you accounted for payments by credit card, checks, money in banks. Have no idea of the scale, then or now. Suspect it is huge.
Dawg, I hope you reconsider, not sure what upset you but I enjoy your posts even though we don't always agree on things. You've always been respectful and gracious.
People need to take criticism and move on rather than constantly trying to attack and discredit the critic. "The American way" to deal with just criticism is to try to discredit and harass the critics. It is a well-established formula here derived from the political gangs. This blog is a microcosm of American behavior.
Anecdotal evidence is there is a lot of cash washing around in the economy, and I'm not just thinking drugs.
I read somewhere years ago, that there was 'way more folding paper money than expected, when you accounted for payments by credit card, checks, money in banks. Have no idea of the scale, then or now. Suspect it is huge.
What are you talking about here? You mean the underground economy which occurs under the notice of the IRS is much larger than anticipated, or there is a far larger amount of paper bills circulating than the treasury estimates?
Hey... so if you are a younger guy like me (32).. should I keep putting money into my 401K? I put in 10% a month which easily maxes me each year.... I figure I'll either have a nice nest egg in 30 years.. or it really wont mattter as there will be much worse problems Osama bin Paulson | 02.04.09 - 5:43 pm | #
That would surely depend on how you had your 401k assets allocated. I'm not one to advise you financially, but for the time being, I'd stay away from things like high risk small cap stocks, etc. Perhaps others could chime in. I recall someone reviewing someone else's prospectus recently, and pointing out that the money market that they were reviewing was fairly insulated from an "impending" long bond crash because 90% of the funds assets were in instruments that expired in under 30 days, or something like that. But again, don't take any advice from me; I often regret taking my own advice
Deflationary Jane used to talk about doubling up, demographic changes, hispanic outmigration, economic hardship and the like. I think she got a considerable amount of flack over it too.
I wouldn't say Switzerland will make it through this intact, but their response has been better. (80% cut in bonus, restructuring, etc)
It's not like their whole system is inherently broken. Unfortunately I don't know of a time when a country facing bankruptcy was ever acquired, which would be the optimal solution.
"And it take the govt to point out to Wells/Wach that they shouldn't party like that when they can't make any money and are sucking up taxpayer money?
And if they ever do pay the tarp back, which they won't, ok by me if they get their stock options."
Back in December, right after Wach opened a brand new branch down the street from my current location, they hung a sign on a Krispy Kreme donut shop near by, which has been standing empty for 3-4 yrs. now, stating it would become the future home of another new branch of Wach. I'm still trying to wrap my head around why Wach, a defunct banking institution is still building/retro fitting branches all around, with Wells also having local long time exposure here.
I guess, now they figure, if all else fails, maybe they can pay us back in donuts, lol.
--
"I hope the Limbaugh's of the world are satisfied."
Citizen AllenM,
He has a large following among born-and-bred American dopes and some of them happen to be my long-time friends. You should listen to these people--always blaming liberals and Democrats for all the problems despite having the Presidency for 28 of the last 40 years.
"There's your trouble. The mtg company does not own it at that point. You are moral "to a fault", in this instance, and that does neither you nor anyone else good because it creates the very moral problem you espouse to correct by paying money to an entity that does not deserve it."
So your solution is to assume that the landlord isn't paying the mortgage thus don't pay the rent? Because you want a rent reduction and it's not being agreed to?
Stop the philosophical bullshit here. To the complaint that someone gave that they couldn't get a rent reduction, the solution proferred was to simply not pay rent because it takes 6 months for the courts to get you out.
This discussion didn't start as
"Landlord isn't paying the mortgage and won't drop my rent."
The discussion started as "Landlord won't give me a rent reduction".
And your solution was don't pay the rent, and use the system until the courts kick you out.
You're no better then the scum bankers with that sort of attitude.
"According to carnival sources, a visibly irritated Cheney, clad in sandals and a white cotton robe, arrived at the one-day event shortly before 10 a.m. After removing his robe to reveal a black, 1940s-style bathing suit, the vice president reportedly touched his hand to the water, muttered something to himself, and was then helped up the tank's ladder by several members of his Secret Service detail."
So, GS doesn't like the strings being added to TARP so it sashays up to the FED window and takes a zero point loan to repay TARP? Am I missing something?
Let me point out that it is distinctly possible that the bank wouldn't accept the money from the renter.
I once suggested to a renter that was feeling guilty that they could do this, and when the money came back untouched they could both not pay AND feel virtuous.
Unfortunately I don't know of a time when a country facing bankruptcy was ever acquired, which would be the optimal solution.
EvilHenryPaulson
.
East Germany?
Falling rents and falling wages aren't the top economic stories of 2009 as the US economy enters depression.
Another thing that we can look forward to is that CR would be proven right on all the important forecasts on CRE, housing and the economy. He understands "It is the debt, stupid!" and the fact that depressions are caused by "bankers' mischief." The US has never had worse bankers in its history. These simple concepts are beyond Jas Jain's ability.
A whole bunch of the uninformed were claiming, 12-18 months ago, that CRE was either not overbuilt at all or was not as overbuilt as the residential real estate. Based on what evidence?! A very bad forecast for the future of the US economya mild, or garden variety, recession.
These people were clueless about what was in store for the consumer-led economy of the recent years and the future demand. Of course, depression was beyond their ability to comprehend. In a depression, the demand for CRE goes down lot more the demand for residential real estate.
Jas Jain claimed, 12-18 months ago, that CRE was either not overbuilt at all or was not as overbuilt as the residential real estate. Based on what evidence?! A very bad forecast for the future of the US economya mild, or garden variety, recession.
Jas Jain was clueless about what was in store for the consumer-led economy of the recent years and the future demand. Of course, depression was beyond his ability to comprehend. In a depression, the demand for CRE goes down lot more the demand for residential real estate.
--
Liars and those who want your money are always nice to you! They are very polite. They understand "the Confidence Game." Our bankers play the game very well.
Born-and-bred American dopes like to, or are trained to, listen to those who tell them what they want to hear.
I wish I could have the hours back I have spent skimming the same Jas versus the world posts. Really. Give me three wishes and that would be one of them.
I fell victim to standing up against the born and bred label a year ago. I felt virtuous in picking up the gauntlet. A month later I figured out what an idiot I had been to everyone else who had figured out the futility of that choice.
There should be a Jas warning at the top of each thread warning about this trap.
I come to tell you of my simple trading method for natural gas futures. When gas futures rise, I buy them. When they fall, I short them. Using my patent techniques, I have earning many millions of Franks in the last years.
Now you, too, can make many millions of Franks (and Beans and Gravy) if you use my patented rant system which can cause gas futures to rise or fall, depending on who is currently reading the CR board.
Contact me today for details and uhhh la la, get rich today!
.
"No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed."
Can one of you lawyers explain what it means?
joe shmoe | 02.04.09 - 5:32 pm | #
-------------------------------------
An ex post facto ('after the fact') law makes a conduct illegal after it occurs. Imagine you parked on the street one day -- the next day the local constabulary erects a NO PARKING sign (duly, pursuant to an act of the local legislature earlier that second day). You cannot be held criminally liable for parking there the day before. Your conduct was legal when it occurred, and cannot be made illegal ex post facto. (Strictly speaking, the sign is not necessay, but humor me).
A bill of attainder is a legislative proclamation of guilt of an individual without the benefit of a trial.
The clause that is getting everyone's dander up recently in regard to cram-downs is the prohibition on altering the obligations of contracts (Art. I, Sec. 10), though that applies to the states, not to the federal governemnt.
But I'm not a lawyer, I just play one in real life.
Jas , I think you misrepresent the posts addressing residential/non-residential construction spending here, though perhaps it's not your intention or I've misunderstood you.
So far as I can see, residential spending rose from about $200B in 1993 to nearly $700B at its peak in early 2006. Non-residential was not far behind until it diverged downward near the end of 2001 - and not coming within shouting distance again until after residential collapsed.
Perhaps it comes down to what you include in your CRE metrics but, really, until about February of '08, private construction spending exceeded - and mostly vastly exceeded all non-residential spending.
Until non-res began a significant runup, I think most of us were merely tracking it for developments - and interested in how high the incidence of easy money was in the sector. Now that it appears to have reversed course, it's followed more frequently and with greater detail.
I simply don't see anything wrong or mistaken in any of this - the reportage has been just what I'd have wanted.
CR isn't as given to floating predictions in the same way that you are - calls on what he reasonably can say and holds the rest for more confirmation. Not your M.O., I realize, but none the worse for all that.
Can't for the life of me see what the friction is all about - but the frequent harping is past a joke.
CR: why no topic on the 500,000 cap? or did I miss it? from my reading of it it only applies to special TARP recipients - those in the uber-begging group - but from my understanding your average Managing Director at say Citigroup is exempt from the cap, am I right? He can still be paid his million plus bonus?
way OT/ I was reading the Harvey Milk comments (esp LawyerLiz...), I remember him well in SF politics, my landlord was of the gay aristocratic/powerbroker class in that city and he was seen by this group as way to confrontational and crude in his media attention antics... really, a bit of a clown and embarassment ... as for him one day becoming President of USA you don't know the real Harvey Milk... stop getting your history lessons from movies (see Oliver Stone).
althought I haven't seen Milk I once worked on the movie State of Grace with Sean Penn back in 1989-90 and I have a great juicy story about what kind of jerk he is as a person...
"people are doubling up, tripling up, moving back to couches...."
This is a surprise? Many of the homes that were purchased in the area of San Diego that I lived had 2 or 3 families to a house or condo. That was the only way your average person could actually afford a home. Shocking that the trend would continue now that they have now that the job market has tightend
I can comment from my own experiences in California:
* We're already doubling up, and in an high-priced market the savings are very high, so I expect to see more of it.
* Doubling up and soforth also has other repercussions besides rent savings.
* Regional doubling up is also encouraged by public transport and services. If you can stick five people in a house and only need two cars thats a bigger savings.
* I don't see a lot of home movement where I am, though my place of residence hasn't been hit hard. What is interesting is seeing more renting of home, condos, and townhomes.
My landlord actually raised my rent last year.
I hope now's a great time to rent.... seriously considering (trying to) ditch the house and renting for a couple of years.
Omen?
Can someone explain how Goldman Sucks trades above $80? How are they still alive?
My landlord actually raised my rent last year.
| \t02.04.09 - 5:04 pm | #
\t Nemo | \t \t \tHomepage
That's because the two year declining rent curve was still being built.
Renters are suckers. Bandos are smart. Says something, doesn't it?
since i'm early enough to have an audience that might answer (and yes I'm OT)
does the 500k pay 'cap' affect AIG, BAC, or C? or is just for new wastes of money?
my MSA (Cedar Rapids, IA) had house price increases according to the NAR report released this week. Go midwest and!
Of course Cedar Rapids also never had home price growth above 3% between 2003 and 2008. I remember in 2005 people were griping about how our houses don't appreciate like coastal areas. Ha!
My landlord actually raised my rent last year.
Are you paying it?
Our Enterprise priorities, like that of many real estate companies, lead with capital preservation and enhanced liquidity.
"Enhanced" is good. Always love that word. Where can I sign up?
Can someone explain how Goldman Sucks trades above $80? How are they still alive?
\t Airwolf Ben & Co | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 5:06 pm | #
They recently became an agency of the Treasury Department.
"wc writes:
my MSA (Cedar Rapids, IA) had house price increases according to the NAR report released this week. Go midwest and!"
Too bad commodities collapsed.
TANTA posted a post on the personality of trolls that make censoring a blog neccesary..if someone has a link would you mind posting it
thanks
I was at a bank's wealth management division the other day
- offices were full of new young hires, empty desks, some eating lunch out of tupperware, all still going through the motions dressing up, well going through the motions in general
- got stuck in a short conversation about the markets/economy. "Well at least the new reports today were better than expected"
- I either didn't have the heart, or the energy to give a seminar about the top down situation
40% of Japanese investors think there is a risk of a US default
sexy derivative --
They recently became an agency of the Treasury Department.
Almost right but I think you have it backwards.
second, the availability and the cost of public capital both near and long term
Whoa, what is the definition of public capital? Is that public as in government/taxpayer?
==
Falling rents and falling wages would be the top economic stories of 2009 as the US economy enters depression.
Another thing that we can look forward to is that CR would be proven wrong on all the important forecasts on CRE, housing and the economy. he does not understand "It is the debt, Stupid!" economy and the fact that depressions are caused by "bankers' mischief." The US never had worse bankers in its history. These simple concepts are beyond economists' ability.
Jas
Too bad commodities collapsed.
Elvis | 02.04.09 - 5:10 pm | #
One of the primary employers in Cedar Rapids IA is Quaker Oats - they benefit from a recession (since they sell inferior goods) and collapsing commodities prices (lower cost to make crunch berries).
The other major employer is Rockwell Collins (aviation/electronics engineering) and they will likely be hurting as military and commercial contracts reduce/vanish.
As planned, since October, we have cut market rents more than 3% across the portfolio, with the deepest cuts in Southern California.
Remember way back when people were arguing that the housing bust would lead to higher rents? Those were the days.
does the 500k pay 'cap' affect AIG, BAC, or C? or is just for new wastes of money?
\t monta's ankle | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 5:08 pm | #
http://washingtonindependent.com/28954/executive-compensation-limits-the-loopholes
But can't it be both?
Did you see that Paul Krugman bit about deflation? The anticipation of declining rents that even the landlord predicts change people's attitudes about signing long leases, ect.
Just got a lease renewal from my landlord (Manhattan), bumped it up $100 (2%). Can't blame them though, I'm sure there are plenty of people who take the increase just to avoid moving. I'm not one of them. I'm probably going to reduce my rent by 1/4 to 1/3 in May just by moving.
I once was mod on a bulletin board that had occasional troll problems. It was open source software for the bulletin board, so I asked someone (not involved with the BB) to write me a plugin for the board software that would enable me, as admin, to "mask" a user.
Not ban them, but simply mask their posts from being seen by anyone else but themselves.
They kept troll-posting away, unread by anyone (except me, the admin, of course), and eventually got bored because they never got any responses. (Cause no one was reading 'em! And they hadn't a clue!)
It worked like a charm. Much better than banning, which only makes trolls angry and spurs them to keep coming back with different screen names. But it's a response to trolling that isn't about the admin visibly throwing his power around, so I guess people don't ever think of it.
Airwolf Ben & Co writes:
Can someone explain how Goldman Sucks trades above $80? How are they still alive?
Airwolf Ben & Co | 02.04.09 - 5:06 pm | #
Think East India Company - the tail now wags the dog.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
I was at a bank's wealth management division the other day
LOL
Wealth Management is my second favorite euphemism for "person you pay to lose your money for you," with the first being "bookie."
Also, Cedar Rapids had a mega flood over the summer, no? What was the impact on CRE and RRE.., anybody.
Actually GS seems to be one arm and Morgan Stanley the other. It will be interesting to see who ends up on top of the garbage heap.
Kind of a shame about Panasonic... at least, years ago, they used to have excellent quality products at a slightly lower price tier than Sony.
If rents are going down, I'm not buying a rental, he said, spinning down the deflationary spiral.
Wasn't someone some time 2 years ago ridiculed for talk of doubling up?
Nostrovia,
"Wealth Management is my second favorite euphemism for "person you pay to lose your money for you," with the first being "bookie."
You pay me for listening to analysts that don't have a clue.
Nemo,
I would tell your landlord that Calculated Risk is an informed and influential blog in regard to rental real estate.
You are always the first person to post on Calculated Risk. Therefore, the landlord should lower your rent.
If that doesn't work, threaten to move out.
Kind of a shame about Panasonic... at least, years ago, they used to have excellent quality products at a slightly lower price tier than Sony.
mal | 02.04.09 - 5:19 pm | #
They still make some of the best values in flat screen TVs, per consumer reports.
Comrade;
Wasn't someone ridiculed for talk of a depression?
At this moment we are planning to move at
the end of this month to within
2 miles of my job to a cheap apartment and
getting rid of a car.
The goal is to save $$$. If nothing else,
this will get us to a relatives in another
state if my contract is not renewed in
8 months.
[There does remain a favorable rent-to-own gap in most of our markets, but it is being challenged]
He can call me in as a consultant to help fix that problem.
Starts with... Lower rents ?
I have a Panasonic walkman (walkman - cassette) from 1984 that still works. Was dropped from heights, stepped on, etc etc.
Human humor from rich.
You saw it. Remember this day.
Can you say "SRS"? I can.
When I was unemployed a few years ago, I got cold-called by a recruiter looking for a Financial Planner. I said that's not what I do. He said. Doesn't matter. Come in for an interview.
If that doesn't work, threaten to move out.
rich | 02.04.09 - 5:20 pm | #
I tried that over the weekend with our landlord and it was a no-go.
She'll probably not be able to rent within
4 months, lose the house and it will sit
vacant for at least a year after that, judging
from what else is going on in the hood.
I have a Panasonic walkman (walkman - cassette) from 1984 that still works. Was dropped from heights, stepped on, etc etc.
mal | 02.04.09 - 5:21 pm | #
You're old - I lost track of my walkman knockoff. Do you still have any 8 track?
rich writes:
Nemo,
I would tell your landlord that Calculated Risk is an informed and influential blog in regard to rental real estate.
You are always the first person to post on Calculated Risk. Therefore, the landlord should lower your rent.
If that doesn't work, threaten to move out.
rich | 02.04.09 - 5:20 pm |
I'd threaten a #6. Much more effective.
Is Cox still running the SEC?
Why so quiet on the regulatory front ? Obama has a tiny window until the sheep slam it shut and refuse to listen.
Many landlords can't afford to lower the rent,
nor can they afford to wait more than one or two months for a new tenant to appear.
Speaking of rental apartment investors, any of you ever hear of this place :
Connolly Properties, Inc. | Apartment Communities | www.connollyprop.com
A close relative's best friend has almost her entire retirement tied up here. They've been promising that you just throw in a giant lump sum, and you get guaranteed returns of like 15%. This did happen for a while, but now the returns are being lowered.
It smacks, to me, of what Madoff did in his pre-confession years, having to scale back returns when he couldnt drag more money into the Ponzi.
Does this not sound kinda shady to you all?
Summers Warns Deflation Is ‘Real Risk’ for Economy (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
From the above link:
White House economics director Lawrence Summers urged swift passage of a stimulus bill and pledged further taxpayer funds for major banks, warning that the economy is in danger of sustained declines in consumer prices.
Let me get this straight. The government will hand over taxpayer money to banks so that the banks can lend the money at interest back to the taxpayer so that the taxpayer won't have to suffer through "sustained declines in CONsumer prices."
Talk about bankers' mischief.
Wealth Management : those remaining are working extra hard to convince their dupes that "it's coming back," and to "dollar cost average," while stocks are low.
Justifies the 1.0% asset salary.
People : just fire these losers at this point. Even if they did know the intricacies and rules, that was in the pre-Calvinball era. Now, they have been revealed for the talentless leeches they are.
hey don't knock the Walkman... that was the iPod of its day!
(and actually yeah, I have a Realistic 8 track in my basement... but it was my dad's and hasn't been played since 1979).
rich --
If that doesn't work, threaten to move out.
I am already paying below market for my (small) unit. I do occasionally check listings for my area to see if there are better deals.
I generally keep my consumption low and my savings high. Apparently, this makes me a deeply antisocial and unpatriotic person who needs to be punished.
"Financial Planner."
I plan on losing your finances !
Not knockin man, I'm an 80's child too, lol. I'm listening to Echo and the Bunnymen even now on Pandora - sounds better than the scratched up cassette.
For those interested in money and credit and our present predicament, the following link
is a must read.
The last time I talked to a financial planner, I had to explain to him why he was wrong. Took 20 minutes.
Intown Atlanta is awash in 6,000 unsold condos, according to the local real estate consultant Haddow & Co. Just 66 new units sold in the second half of 2008, Haddow & Co. says. For the year, 645 new condos changed hands, which is 76 percent below the average of the previous eight years.
Nemo,
"Apparently, this makes me a deeply antisocial and unpatriotic person who needs to be punished."
Well that's possible, but in your case I assume you have causality and symptom reversed.
/ducks
Nostrovia,
Cedar Rapids CRE and residential prices did not go down after the flood (is it too soon to say it was a wash?). About 2,000 houses got wiped out, but very few people/businesses moved away. SLR camera sales were also through the roof and I couldn't count the number of vans & buses of people traveling in to help with flood recovery (who also spent a significant amount of money at local restaurants/stores/etc).
We will catch up with the rest of the country when rockwell collins starts mass mailing pink slips (and Aegon insurance who employees several thousand people here).
How does deflation happen?
Simple. People decide to get off the debt treadmill. Bernanke should fear that the next bubble is in debt defaults.
Jingle mail, jingle mail, jingle all the way. Oh what fun it is to run from your debt burden today. Keys in envelopes ring, giving bankers fright, what fun it is to walkaway and make your burden light. Oh, jingle mail, jingle mail...
Tis the season.
I'M A LAMPREY EEL
I'M A LAMPREY EEL
SOMEBODY HELP ME
I'M SUCKING ON MY OWN FOOT
TANTA posted a post on the personality of trolls that make censoring a blog neccesary..if someone has a link would you mind posting it..i think it was tagged as commentating
thanks
There are many sectors that have sales divisions which rely on market growth
If sales go from growing to flat-lining, they're out of a job and no one needs their talent.
The only challenge is to find a productive outlet for them
Wasn't someone some time 2 years ago ridiculed for talk of doubling up?
Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.04.09 - 5:19 pm | #
That's putting it mildly and yet another confirmation of my reasons for departing. Bill rode me for years and now he highlights in bold some REIT comment as if it was a new concept just now coming to light. Just to make clear since there is so much speculation; I'm not pouting, I'm just gone. Simple, no histrionics. The world still turns. Enjoy.
@ any lawyers on the blog
In relation to complaints that Obama's pay cap would not apply to recipients of monies already disbursed under TARP, I decided to read some arcane 18th century document and found this odd line in a place called Article I Section 8:
"No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed."
Can one of you lawyers explain what it means?
Cisco: Was $16.40. Is $15.20
Nasdaq Futures: Was 1242. Is 1193.
"...so it would indicate that people are doubling up, tripling up, moving back to couches, moving back with mom and dad."
.
We'd call that a normal market in Portland.
CSCO had a little issue with guiding revenue guidance down 15-20% YOY going forward.
"No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed."
Can one of you lawyers explain what it means?
Why are you reading a silly document like the constitution? Go straight to the source. Load up some supreme court opinions.
Jas - I have read your posts for years, and agreed with much of what you have said. You have added much to the conversation...
However, you are now getting to the point of being annoying by attacking the host and blaming him for all the problems of the world. Not sure why you hate CR or the rest of the dopes so much but give it a rest.
Most of us pass by your posts without reading them because we know they have gone from analysis to attacks of the host.
We tried doubling down after the dot.com bust. Snake eyes.
Doubling up makes sense here.
joe shmoe
It's doesn't allow retroactive contracts/laws ... but anything is possible (retroactive telecom spying immunity recently)
non-issue though, banks still need more help and thus the pay cap can be written in the
srs is still range bound..although buying in 50's is profitable..when it blows no reason $100+ cant be seen again! Though casinos dont seem easy to figure out! my 2 srs cents
IYR does have some block buyers who seem to like it!
BNOBPOF writes:
Just got a lease renewal from my landlord (Manhattan), bumped it up $100 (2%)
Not bad for annual...
Jas getting annoying? C&C, you've departed from all bounds of credulity here. Reading Jas posts is like sniffing the delicate and ephemeral fragrance of just-blooming jasmine in the cool evening air of a lazy summer while your wife fellates you with GRATING LAMPREY EEL TEETH AUUGHHHGH
Rob,
Don't leave. You make sense. You think. You're informed.
The citizens of CR Land must retain the top talent.
Losing top producers; gaining chuckle heads and dogma shouters.
Sadness spreads across that land.
Losing top producers; gaining chuckle heads and dogma shouters.
LAMPREY EELS
LAMPREY EELS
LAMPREY EELS ALL AROUND US EVERYWHERE WE LOOK
Rob Dawg,
Yeah, I remember well.
Nostrovia,
Wealth Management : those remaining are working extra hard to convince their dupes that "it's coming back," and to "dollar cost average," while stocks are low.
Averaging down is a great idea. It allows investors to profit from their losses.
How can you lose?
EHP
I forgot to sign "snark off."
The folks complaining about the lack of ex post facto implementation deserve the snarkiness.
OT, California is broke! Oh man!
The Raw Story | California goes broke, halts $3.5 billion in payments
Joe Schmoe,
That old document is pretty meaningless in this day and age. Get with the times.
then why did we just elect a prof of constitutional law to appoint an atty general who thinks torture is a crime?
yet another mistake.
If anyone wants a perfect example of baseless market cheerleading
My anecdote of person on the street cheerleading is:
"We have a(n investment) property in Yaletown, it's still really tough to find a place in Yaletown [a lie]. But now is not the time to sell"
Hey... so if you are a younger guy like me (32).. should I keep putting money into my 401K? I put in 10% a month which easily maxes me each year.... I figure I'll either have a nice nest egg in 30 years.. or it really wont mattter as there will be much worse problems
Does that sound sane?
Now is a good time to sell if you didn't buy within the past 7 years.
I tried that over the weekend with our landlord and it was a no-go.
She'll probably not be able to rent within
4 months, lose the house and it will sit
vacant for at least a year after that, judging
from what else is going on in the hood.
Comrade Tiberius
All you do is quit paying rent now. It takes her at least 6 months to get you out, if you know the law, and before that you have a new landlord...the bank. It takes them another 6 months to get you out for non-payment or they let you stay there for free because they don't want the foreclosure on their books. Easy street. Google it.
I'm with E. Now is a great time to Bando.
Nostrovia,
"40% of Japanese investors think there is a risk of a US default"
Maybe that's the reason for the record security refunds?
"A rock and a hard place: The Treasury announced that it would be offering a record $67 billion of long-term securities in the quarter, to refund $36.3 billion of securities that are maturing and to raise another $30.7 billion."
Government debt prices fall Wednesday - Feb. 4, 2009
"
All you do is quit paying rent now. It takes her at least 6 months to get you out, if you know the law, and before that you have a new landlord...the bank. It takes them another 6 months to get you out for non-payment or they let you stay there for free because they don't want the foreclosure on their books. Easy street. Google it."
Or you could ask for a rent reduction and move it you can't come to an agreement. I know morals are old fashioned, but hey give it a try. It helps when you look in the mirror the next morning.
Gotta say that i enjoy reading Rob Dawg's posts,
as I do dryfly's and the late great MP. They do a good deal of service even when they're not 100%
right. They make you think what if.
It would be sad to have Rob leave.
Even sadder that some can't detach their personal identity from the mass marketed image of their political ideologues.
Criminy, folks. Criticism of a political figure has no bearing on your personal self worth.
Jas-
Good manners = good morals.
I once was mod on a bulletin board that had occasional troll problems. It was open source software for the bulletin board, so I asked someone (not involved with the BB) to write me a plugin for the board software that would enable me, as admin, to "mask" a user.
Not ban them, but simply mask their posts from being seen by anyone else but themselves.
They kept troll-posting away, unread by anyone (except me, the admin, of course), and eventually got bored because they never got any responses. (Cause no one was reading 'em! And they hadn't a clue!)
It worked like a charm. Much better than banning, which only makes trolls angry and spurs them to keep coming back with different screen names. But it's a response to trolling that isn't about the admin visibly throwing his power around, so I guess people don't ever think of it.
\t mal | \t \t \t \t02.04.09 - 5:17 pm | #
Mal, that is inspired!! I would love to see that option used more often. Back in the days when there used to be heavy breather or porn phone calls, I dealt with them by very quietly laying down the phone and going about my business. I pictured the guy going on and on, then getting increasingly anxious about what was happening, then having his anxiety overwhelm him and maybe him questioning, "is anyone there?" Then, finally, HIM having to hang up. It worked like a charm.
Look at the performance of TBT between Jan 15 and now. look at the rise. It's totally smooth, except for weird notching. Does this look like a controlled buy of treasuries to sustain yields, and does it look like whatever entity is buying them is failing to hold the relentless line?
We hear about the FDIC, but I bet the IRS is even busier
Tax receipts will be interesting
Don't go dawg!!!
but I bet the IRS is even busier
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 5:51 pm | #
Why? Less income to collect, no?
Barry needs to get on American Idol asap so he can explain his agenda to his constituents.
We hear about the FDIC, but I bet the IRS is even busier
Tax receipts will be interesting
EvilHenryPaulson
.
That reminds me. Evil, how does the gummit know how big the underground economy is? Some arcane math voodoo?
Sue
That's how you get rid of telemarketers. They all have a quota, so every 5 minutes or so say a single word (newer call centres only connect a telemarketer if it's a person and not voicemail that picks up)
Works better than any do not call list
but I bet the IRS is even busier
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 5:51 pm | #
Why? Less income to collect, no?
JP | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 5:52 pm |
#
If presidential post appointees are any indication then it's more a matter of volume increase.
Abu Dhabi Banks Borrow Funds
Abu Dhabi banks rushed to tap government funds amid rising concern over the health of financial companies in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
In an attempt to insulate their economies and bail out banks from the worst of the global financial crisis, oil-rich sheikdoms in the Gulf are expected to increasingly draw on the foreign exchange reserves they built up in the past five years of growth..
I know morals are old fashioned, but hey give it a try. It helps when you look in the mirror the next morning.
Pissed Off In California
If she is losing it to the bank in four months what are you doing paying rent now? Why would she raise rent? Is she paying the bank their due? Morals are so conditional in a financial situation with this complexity. Who is hurt here and how and when and what is important to this monetary picture. Is the landlord scamming the bank? Probably. Is the landlord hurting the tenant with above market rent? Most likely. Morals? Please, due diligence is apropros not morals.
In Florida, evictions are usually pretty fast. Far less than 4 months absent extraordinary circumstances.
Evictions are different than foreclosures as to speed.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I'm not pouting, I'm just gone.
As a veteran of a number of departures from long-frequented message boards, I'd like to point out that quitting a message board is an event, not a process.
Go (which you state is your preference)or stay (which CA readers favor), but don't stick around just to say that you aren't here and to tell us again why you "left".
--
"...blaming him for all the problems of the world."
crispy&cole,
Evidence please. I have simply tried to point out CR's major mistakes w.r.t. CRE, housing and economic forecasts and at times he purposely deletes those posts that prove him wrong. He has problem with admitting mistakes. It is a big problem. I am willing to post specifics where he has been proven wrong, IMO. People have the right to know where CR has been wrong, no? Deflating Americans' egos, including CR's, makes me very unpopular.
Sorry,
Jas
"That's putting it mildly and yet another confirmation of my reasons for departing. Bill rode me for years and now he highlights in bold some REIT comment as if it was a new concept just now coming to light. Just to make clear since there is so much speculation; I'm not pouting, I'm just gone. Simple, no histrionics. The world still turns. Enjoy.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 5:31 pm | #
Hello, I must be going?
I never thought I'd hear you say, "My feelings are hurt because the blog owner disagreed with me and put me down and now is saying the same thing I was saying. So I'm going to stamp my little foot and go home."
That's Jas thinking. Except you're threatening to leave (for the second time today), and he never will.
Man up and hang around.
I've had to drop rent 20% in Pasadena just to get a tenant. My old tenant moved out. I'm also seeing 10% drops in other area. This guy is a little behind, when it comes to new rates.
BenB | 02.04.09 - 5:57 pm | #
Just move out. The lady might be unrealistic in her rent demand but it is hers to demand. You are rationalizing a decision to assuage a wrong action.
Now, talking about your security deposit being toast is germane.
I think the posters that leave may just be bored after quality posting for quite a long time, 'cause the reasons they leave seem fairly minor.
The only thing more annoying than posters saying "I'm leaving!" is when they come back to tell you why they left.
JP,
Lots of money (gains / losses) flowing about. Lots of fraud being exposed. People who want to do a "tax protest", in part because of bailouts. Others in the press who evidently aren't paying their taxes until they are vetted by Obama. Nevermind their mission is to tax the income of every American citizen home and abroad. A lot of people simply can't afford to pay their taxes after being surprised last year.
scone,
they really don't have a good idea. Can only do piecemeal estimation, and to that effect they also have to choose a dollar value for black market transactions (what's the price of a home cooked meal, or illegal drugs, or illegal services, or ...) There's been more effort lately to quantify environmental factors in terms of economics (what's the value of clean water, the cost of an animal going extinct, ...)
--
"Can someone explain how Goldman Sucks trades above $80? How are they still alive?"
Airwolf Ben & Co,
Government Sachs owns the US govt. Next question please.
BTW, I am short Jan'11 150C-30P strangle on GS.
Jas
Mal, that is inspired!! I would love to see that option used more ofte
Sue (Capital S) | 02.04.09 - 5:50 pm | #
vBulletin, used by many internet boards, implements this feature.
They call it "Tachy goes to Coventry". Dunno why, they just do.
"If she is losing it to the bank in four months what are you doing paying rent now? Why would she raise rent? Is she paying the bank their due? Morals are so conditional in a financial situation with this complexity. Who is hurt here and how and when and what is important to this monetary picture. Is the landlord scamming the bank? Probably. Is the landlord hurting the tenant with above market rent? Most likely. Morals? Please, due diligence is apropros not morals."
A lot of assumptions there don't you think?
You're assuming that the landlord is scamming the bank. If they are running a scam then I agree the tenant should not be paying rent;actually they should be remitting their rent directly to the mortgage company in this case.
Tenant paying above market rent? Too bad they can attempt to re-negotiate and walk if they can't come to an agreement.
I'm actually about to renegotiate our rent and will walk if we can't come to an agreement.
Your original post mentioned none of the above, it simply stated don't pay rent.
I know people who have been on the receiving end of this type of advice and lost a year of rent and thousands in lawyer bills on a property that they legally owned and were paying a mortgage on.
The advice you gave is exactly why we sold our house rather than renting it out.
Bad morals come in all sizes, shapes and forms.
why does everyone think that 500K cap of executive comp is a bad idea?
Banker Pay Caps Bad Idea - News Markets - Portfolio.com
1) The cap applies only for executives of Banks in Distress.
2) The cap will get rid of incentive of Banks that are healthy to borrow Fed money for M&A purposes.
3) The cap will help to ensure the Gov money are applied where they should - LOANS
p.s. the argument in PORTFOLIO is valid only for executive that DO HAVE TALENT. If they would have talent, their banks would not be in distress!
Booooo!
Bill Moyers on recent bail outs
Cheney Dunk Tank Raises $800 Billion For Nation | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
If California is not paying out tax rebates, the time has truly come for a full-blown tax revolt.
--
"That's Jas thinking."
Bob Dobbs,
You are a MORON finding any excuse to attack me. Not that I expect anything different from dopes like you.
Jas
I'm finding locally that our far-too-numerous rental complexes fail to compete with the glut of zero lot line 'villas' which are increasingly available.
No neighbors over head. Garage. Two master suites in a split plan. Pool. Skylights.
Most of the rental properties built here since '95 were designed for now-vanished market conditions. The flats are small, have vestigal balconies or terraces with a shallow outdoor storage closet. Rather stingy about windows. No elevator. Unassigned outdoor parking, or a distant garage for an additional fee. Developers promoted the crown moldings, the prewire for surround sound, or a lavish clubhouse.
In Sarasota, at least, a drop of 6% won't keep those places filled.
Comrade de Chaos.. .
apparently how much money you make defines your talent.
Sadly that's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess
The average ER doctor is 1000x more valuable to society than any banker and makes a fraction of the money
I don't get all this "incentive" to participate in the TARP crap... if they dont need the money dont take it.. if that means they fail.. TOO FUCKING BAD
Oh yeah.. and if you dont like your pay being limited then dont beg for govt money
I thought the half mill was a good idea. Execs can turn down the money and go bk. Good.
And it take the govt to point out to Wells/Wach that they shouldn't party like that when they can't make any money and are sucking up taxpayer money?
And if they ever do pay the tarp back, which they won't, ok by me if they get their stock options.
Government Sachs owns the US govt. Next question please.
BTW, I am short Jan'11 150C-30P strangle on GS.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 6:02 pm | #
Sure it's not Morgan Stanley Chase that owns the majority share of USA Corp?
Is it pile on Jas time?
Quit being an ass Jas!
I'm an ass and a dope and reverting to American behavior when confronted with the mirror of Jas's truths. blah blah blah we all suck and deserve what we get...
The Swiss are doing a much better job with their banking regulation/bailout/bonus cuts
"Comrade de Chaos.. .
apparently how much money you make defines your talent.
Sadly that's the kind of thinking that got us into this mess"
Well, usually capping is a bad idea because no single or party of human being is a good character to judge who should get and how much.
However, this case is an exemption because it is OUR money that gets redistributed, so naturally we should have a world in the process.
scone,
they really don't have a good idea. Can only do piecemeal estimation, and to that effect they also have to choose a dollar value for black market transactions...
.
I see. I suspected as much. So, if people seem to be doing o.k. as we go through this, despite little visible income, we'll have a notion of how much money is being hidden from the "revenuers." I'm thinking it could be a big chunk 'o change.
"The Swiss are doing a much better job with their banking regulation/bailout/bonus cuts"
Yes. UBS put toxic assets in the bonus pool, reasoning that that would give their people an incentive to make them (the toxics) perform.
Bill Moyers on recent bail outs
Hey liz, my husband actually went in for a job interview today, he said he thinks it went pretty well. They're building a new Wallyworld here in Lynn Haven. I have my fingers crossed, his being employed will make me infinitely more optimistic about the refinance. Working on my tax return tomorrow to get that started...
EHP:
Details on the Swiss? Where, particularly?
Oshkosh Corp. senior executives are taking 10% pay cuts as the specialty truck maker hunkers down in the recession.
"This is not easy. These people have families, mortgages and car payments. We hope these employment reductions are short-lived' Robert Bohn, chairman and CEO, said he has taken a 15% pay cut along with turning in country club membership and company car.
Deflating times seniors first, next...
EHP - Going to disagree. I have some level of fear that Swiss. may go the way of Iceland. The Banks based there are leveraged (in debt) some 40X Swiss GDP. It a small country w/ little public wealth and few taxpayers. And, the money in all those vaults belongs to others.
"You're assuming that the landlord is scamming the bank. If they are running a scam then I agree the tenant should not be paying rent;actually they should be remitting their rent directly to the mortgage company in this case."
There's your trouble. The mtg company does not own it at that point. You are moral "to a fault", in this instance, and that does neither you nor anyone else good because it creates the very moral problem you espouse to correct by paying money to an entity that does not deserve it. Do they remit rents paid in error? Only if the mortgage company is a moral company. I have yet to see one of those. Anyway, I understand your point but would not say it is the only way to do business. The devil is in the details.
Wow, depression and doubling up.
At least BRE knows what they are up against, now.
Yep, scone.
Anecdotal evidence is there is a lot of cash washing around in the economy, and I'm not just thinking drugs.
I read somewhere years ago, that there was 'way more folding paper money than expected, when you accounted for payments by credit card, checks, money in banks. Have no idea of the scale, then or now. Suspect it is huge.
Et tu Dawg? Hate to see it.
Coming this summer
Trade Wars
in theaters everywhere.
"Aso joins in criticism of Buy American: Japanese leader adds voice to EU condemnation"
Krugman is now beginning to really panic.
About that deflation risk - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Now even the research shows the yawning abyss, followed by massive reflation by the government as the only alternative.
I hope the Limbaugh's of the world are satisfied.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Dawg, I hope you reconsider, not sure what upset you but I enjoy your posts even though we don't always agree on things. You've always been respectful and gracious.
Great Kristina!! Lucky luck luck.
--
amon,
People need to take criticism and move on rather than constantly trying to attack and discredit the critic. "The American way" to deal with just criticism is to try to discredit and harass the critics. It is a well-established formula here derived from the political gangs. This blog is a microcosm of American behavior.
Jas
Anecdotal evidence is there is a lot of cash washing around in the economy, and I'm not just thinking drugs.
I read somewhere years ago, that there was 'way more folding paper money than expected, when you accounted for payments by credit card, checks, money in banks. Have no idea of the scale, then or now. Suspect it is huge.
What are you talking about here? You mean the underground economy which occurs under the notice of the IRS is much larger than anticipated, or there is a far larger amount of paper bills circulating than the treasury estimates?
Hey... so if you are a younger guy like me (32).. should I keep putting money into my 401K? I put in 10% a month which easily maxes me each year.... I figure I'll either have a nice nest egg in 30 years.. or it really wont mattter as there will be much worse problems
Osama bin Paulson | 02.04.09 - 5:43 pm | #
That would surely depend on how you had your 401k assets allocated. I'm not one to advise you financially, but for the time being, I'd stay away from things like high risk small cap stocks, etc. Perhaps others could chime in. I recall someone reviewing someone else's prospectus recently, and pointing out that the money market that they were reviewing was fairly insulated from an "impending" long bond crash because 90% of the funds assets were in instruments that expired in under 30 days, or something like that. But again, don't take any advice from me; I often regret taking my own advice
Thanks liz, I'm crossing fingers and toes...Off to work with me...
And, the money in all those vaults belongs to others
Sez who?
.
Really, Robert.
You do this and soon there'll be nothing in this tumbler but ice melt and flat soda.
Visit in the wee hours if you must, but do visit.
Deflationary Jane used to talk about doubling up, demographic changes, hispanic outmigration, economic hardship and the like. I think she got a considerable amount of flack over it too.
Goldman said they will re-pay their tarp money before the end of the year.
Prob why there stock is up.
American Can, I'm guessing both.
I wouldn't say Switzerland will make it through this intact, but their response has been better. (80% cut in bonus, restructuring, etc)
It's not like their whole system is inherently broken. Unfortunately I don't know of a time when a country facing bankruptcy was ever acquired, which would be the optimal solution.
TCA writes:
If California is not paying out tax rebates, the time has truly come for a full-blown tax revolt.
Arnold has censored the local press, Cali's just fine...
3rd time, charmer
Bill Moyers on recent bail outs
Krugman should try to explain his output/inflation graph a little better.
I still don't see why prices going down is worse than prices going up.
And K's talk of disinflation sorta implies that we would have been better off if inflation had stayed high.
"And it take the govt to point out to Wells/Wach that they shouldn't party like that when they can't make any money and are sucking up taxpayer money?
And if they ever do pay the tarp back, which they won't, ok by me if they get their stock options."
Back in December, right after Wach opened a brand new branch down the street from my current location, they hung a sign on a Krispy Kreme donut shop near by, which has been standing empty for 3-4 yrs. now, stating it would become the future home of another new branch of Wach. I'm still trying to wrap my head around why Wach, a defunct banking institution is still building/retro fitting branches all around, with Wells also having local long time exposure here.
I guess, now they figure, if all else fails, maybe they can pay us back in donuts, lol.
--
"I hope the Limbaugh's of the world are satisfied."
Citizen AllenM,
He has a large following among born-and-bred American dopes and some of them happen to be my long-time friends. You should listen to these people--always blaming liberals and Democrats for all the problems despite having the Presidency for 28 of the last 40 years.
Jas
"There's your trouble. The mtg company does not own it at that point. You are moral "to a fault", in this instance, and that does neither you nor anyone else good because it creates the very moral problem you espouse to correct by paying money to an entity that does not deserve it."
So your solution is to assume that the landlord isn't paying the mortgage thus don't pay the rent? Because you want a rent reduction and it's not being agreed to?
Stop the philosophical bullshit here. To the complaint that someone gave that they couldn't get a rent reduction, the solution proferred was to simply not pay rent because it takes 6 months for the courts to get you out.
This discussion didn't start as
"Landlord isn't paying the mortgage and won't drop my rent."
The discussion started as "Landlord won't give me a rent reduction".
And your solution was don't pay the rent, and use the system until the courts kick you out.
You're no better then the scum bankers with that sort of attitude.
http://www.theonion.com/content/ ...tank_raises_800
Bond Girl | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 6:05 pm | #
"According to carnival sources, a visibly irritated Cheney, clad in sandals and a white cotton robe, arrived at the one-day event shortly before 10 a.m. After removing his robe to reveal a black, 1940s-style bathing suit, the vice president reportedly touched his hand to the water, muttered something to himself, and was then helped up the tank's ladder by several members of his Secret Service detail."
Thank god it wasn't a speedo.
Krugman still doesn't admit we're already IN deflation? Geez, wake up good buddy.
Gosh, K beat me to it, but I think both. In fact, one kinda implies the other I think.
Goldman said they will re-pay their tarp money before the end of the year
Denninger talks about this today
ugh, make that there a their.
Ha lawyerliz, in my line of work that "shadow money" is pretty apparent....
So, GS doesn't like the strings being added to TARP so it sashays up to the FED window and takes a zero point loan to repay TARP? Am I missing something?
Jas-
Good manners = good morals.
hong konger | 02.04.09 - 5:49 pm | #
Best.Post.To.Jas.Ever.
Let me point out that it is distinctly possible that the bank wouldn't accept the money from the renter.
I once suggested to a renter that was feeling guilty that they could do this, and when the money came back untouched they could both not pay AND feel virtuous.
Don't think they did it; don't remember.
Unfortunately I don't know of a time when a country facing bankruptcy was ever acquired, which would be the optimal solution.
EvilHenryPaulson
.
East Germany?
Falling rents and falling wages aren't the top economic stories of 2009 as the US economy enters depression.
Another thing that we can look forward to is that CR would be proven right on all the important forecasts on CRE, housing and the economy. He understands "It is the debt, stupid!" and the fact that depressions are caused by "bankers' mischief." The US has never had worse bankers in its history. These simple concepts are beyond Jas Jain's ability.
" Good manners = good morals."
Not necessarily. Some guys will very politely steal your retirement from you.
Ha lawyerliz, in my line of work that "shadow money" is pretty apparent....
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 6:23 pm | #
wikipedia: super dollars
Superdollar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
--
For the record...
A whole bunch of the uninformed were claiming, 12-18 months ago, that CRE was either not overbuilt at all or was not as overbuilt as the residential real estate. Based on what evidence?! A very bad forecast for the future of the US economya mild, or garden variety, recession.
These people were clueless about what was in store for the consumer-led economy of the recent years and the future demand. Of course, depression was beyond their ability to comprehend. In a depression, the demand for CRE goes down lot more the demand for residential real estate.
Jas
Scone
I was thinking more along the lines of, "We'll pay off your debt, but you join our country".
Maybe there will be a new Banking Union of Switzerland-Singapore-Bermuda.... right before all the large poor countries shut them out
" Good manners = good morals."
Yes, reminded me of Taleb's comments about people who wear ties.
For the record...
Jas Jain claimed, 12-18 months ago, that CRE was either not overbuilt at all or was not as overbuilt as the residential real estate. Based on what evidence?! A very bad forecast for the future of the US economya mild, or garden variety, recession.
Jas Jain was clueless about what was in store for the consumer-led economy of the recent years and the future demand. Of course, depression was beyond his ability to comprehend. In a depression, the demand for CRE goes down lot more the demand for residential real estate.
You're no better then the scum bankers with that sort of attitude.
Pissed Off In California
Flame on "moral principles".
Discussion ends.
--
Liars and those who want your money are always nice to you! They are very polite. They understand "the Confidence Game." Our bankers play the game very well.
Born-and-bred American dopes like to, or are trained to, listen to those who tell them what they want to hear.
Jas
I wish I could have the hours back I have spent skimming the same Jas versus the world posts. Really. Give me three wishes and that would be one of them.
I fell victim to standing up against the born and bred label a year ago. I felt virtuous in picking up the gauntlet. A month later I figured out what an idiot I had been to everyone else who had figured out the futility of that choice.
There should be a Jas warning at the top of each thread warning about this trap.
Jas, Keep tilting at windmills!
Your Friend,
BBAD(born and bred American dope)
shit-fell for the trap while pretending I wasn't-DOH!
David Gilmour - Raise My Rent
YouTube - David Gilmour "Raise my Rent" from the album "David Gilmour"1978
People are getting cranky now that the pressure's on.
People are getting cranky now that the pressure's on.
Speed
No joke.
getting cranky?
what amon wrote.
Bonjourno!
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Contact me today for details and uhhh la la, get rich today!
.
joe shmoe writes:
...Article I Section 8:
"No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed."
Can one of you lawyers explain what it means?
joe shmoe | 02.04.09 - 5:32 pm | #
-------------------------------------
An ex post facto ('after the fact') law makes a conduct illegal after it occurs. Imagine you parked on the street one day -- the next day the local constabulary erects a NO PARKING sign (duly, pursuant to an act of the local legislature earlier that second day). You cannot be held criminally liable for parking there the day before. Your conduct was legal when it occurred, and cannot be made illegal ex post facto. (Strictly speaking, the sign is not necessay, but humor me).
A bill of attainder is a legislative proclamation of guilt of an individual without the benefit of a trial.
The clause that is getting everyone's dander up recently in regard to cram-downs is the prohibition on altering the obligations of contracts (Art. I, Sec. 10), though that applies to the states, not to the federal governemnt.
But I'm not a lawyer, I just play one in real life.
Jas , I think you misrepresent the posts addressing residential/non-residential construction spending here, though perhaps it's not your intention or I've misunderstood you.
So far as I can see, residential spending rose from about $200B in 1993 to nearly $700B at its peak in early 2006. Non-residential was not far behind until it diverged downward near the end of 2001 - and not coming within shouting distance again until after residential collapsed.
Perhaps it comes down to what you include in your CRE metrics but, really, until about February of '08, private construction spending exceeded - and mostly vastly exceeded all non-residential spending.
Until non-res began a significant runup, I think most of us were merely tracking it for developments - and interested in how high the incidence of easy money was in the sector. Now that it appears to have reversed course, it's followed more frequently and with greater detail.
I simply don't see anything wrong or mistaken in any of this - the reportage has been just what I'd have wanted.
CR isn't as given to floating predictions in the same way that you are - calls on what he reasonably can say and holds the rest for more confirmation. Not your M.O., I realize, but none the worse for all that.
Can't for the life of me see what the friction is all about - but the frequent harping is past a joke.
Do give it up.
What is a rent-to-own gap?
rent-to-own gap may be the difference between mortgage expense and rental expense. If it is large enough, people will pay rent rather than buy.
the quality has gone down mostly by the know-it-alls coming from two weeks on a housing bubble blog that now knows everything about anything.
like the moron above that recommends not paying your rent and waiting for the bank to foreclose.
an eviction proceeding stays on your permanenet record and if the landlord is awarded damages it now shows on your credit report.
try getting a job with an eviction on your record. unbelievable.
i can see why MP and the others left.
Eh, housing blog? Nah, I came here from a Slashdot link. Maybe my name offends them. ^__^
CR: why no topic on the 500,000 cap? or did I miss it? from my reading of it it only applies to special TARP recipients - those in the uber-begging group - but from my understanding your average Managing Director at say Citigroup
is exempt from the cap, am I right? He can still be paid his million plus bonus?
way OT/ I was reading the Harvey Milk comments (esp LawyerLiz...), I remember him well in SF politics, my landlord was of the gay aristocratic/powerbroker class in that city and he was seen by this group as way to confrontational and crude in his media attention antics... really, a bit of a clown and embarassment ... as for him one day becoming President of USA you don't know the real Harvey Milk... stop getting your history lessons from movies (see Oliver Stone).
althought I haven't seen Milk I once worked on the movie State of Grace with Sean Penn back in 1989-90 and I have a great juicy story about what kind of jerk he is as a person...
i'll tell that story another time!
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser did not comment on monetary policy in brief remarks at a conference on Thursday.
Fed's Plosser does not comment on monetary policy
| Reuters
What's this sorry prick gonna say were ripping you off and printing money.
"people are doubling up, tripling up, moving back to couches...."
This is a surprise? Many of the homes that were purchased in the area of San Diego that I lived had 2 or 3 families to a house or condo. That was the only way your average person could actually afford a home. Shocking that the trend would continue now that they have now that the job market has tightend
I can comment from my own experiences in California:
* We're already doubling up, and in an high-priced market the savings are very high, so I expect to see more of it.
* Doubling up and soforth also has other repercussions besides rent savings.
* Regional doubling up is also encouraged by public transport and services. If you can stick five people in a house and only need two cars thats a bigger savings.
* I don't see a lot of home movement where I am, though my place of residence hasn't been hit hard. What is interesting is seeing more renting of home, condos, and townhomes.
MSM = CR commentariat plus 18 months.