"But maybe it will help keep banks afloat until we come up with a real plan, who knows."
Hmmm, the nonsense continues. "We" who? You think you matter? Keeping zombie banks around to consume more capital, thus hollowing out the economy even more is a good idea, it it? For exactly how long? And how would anyone know such a threshhold?
But keep dreaming about your "we" coming up with a "real plan".
My youngest sister and her husband purchased a brand new home last Spring. Almost worth it to sell at a loss and buy another one? Gotta bring up the calculator.
Does this apply to those cheap-ass houses in Detroit? If so, I might be a buyer. Gavshire Hathaway | 02.04.09 - 10:23 pm | # ----- The 1 USD homes, the 1k USD homes, or the 10k USD homes?
Honestly, paying 10k for a home there is probably still too high...
\tThis 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish. Tripleplay | 02.04.09 - 10:24 pm | # ----- Only if they allow NINJA paperwork again...
the 15k doesn't need to paid back, is for any principal residence, not just new homebuyers like the 7.5k was. so much more tax-credity than the first pass. It lasts a year. So basically, about 9 months from now, it will cause some buyers to move their purchases forward by a few months to get access to the credit. and when the credit expires, demand drops off again. woop-de-friggin do
The difference is that back in 75 there was a real need to build housing. Front end of Bommers were 29 yo then, only high interest rates were holding back the market, engineered to hold down inflation after wage-price controls came off. Now ANY new home building is simply mal investment.
If they restart the Ninja loans this might work.My guess is the consumer is broke , unemployed , and still won't be able to get a loan. Now if they offered it on refi's I'm in...
The measure would give buyers a tax credit of 10 percent of the price of a primary residence purchased within the year, up to $15,000, and is designed to stabilize plummeting home prices that caused a wave of foreclosures and led to the near collapse of the financial system as Wall Street firms wrote down billions in losses on mortgage-backed assets.
So that will be a $0.10 tax credit for the $1 house in Detroit...
The existing $7500 credit has income limitations, it must be repaid over 15 years, and you must not have owned a home in 3 years. It's really an interest free loan. This may also initially sound better than it turns out to be.
Not for nothing, but to do this right they should have made it ten percent of any conforming loan in the subject market.
Not saying this is a good idea in any way, shape, or form, but if they thought it was a good idea, they should have put a little muscle into it. Just saying.
So I live in a 150K townhome, next to my good friend next door, in a 150K townhome. We each do a FSBO to each other, move the furniture (wink, wink), and pocket the credit.
damn. the House decided to delay the roll-out of digital TV until June, after blocking it last week. Methinks that the $650M in the stimulus allocated to digital converter coupons had something to do with it.
At $40 per coupon, that comes out to 16.25M sets...
This tax credit idea is pretty retarded at any dollar amount.
Unless...
What if we gave the buyer a choice between a fat tax credit upfront ($50-100K) in exchange for giving up the capital gains exemption ($250/$500K married) when they sell?
I get it that the train has left the station and my question is totally hypothetical, but I am hoping that this revision makes my previous post (and by extension, me) look slightly less retarded.
yeah tax cuts caused this. why on earth do you want to send more money to the govt? they are TOTAL eff ups. you have got to be kidding. arguments for that aren't even vaguely tethered to reality. if lower + worse and higher + better then lets just raise it to 99%? 0% is a no go also, it just won't work. there is level which can work to promote growth, prosperity to the masses, security for the nation and emergencies, and needed social services, etc, etc.
if you want to complain about the structure, complexity, loopholiness, etc of the tax structure then we have common ground.
For those who still keep track after all the clocks melted:
From FT:
The Treasury said it would sell $67bn (£46bn) in new securities next week, the largest ever quarterly refunding, beating the last peak in August 2003. It may also start monthly sales of all its benchmark Treasury securities.
At the end of February, the Treasury will start selling seven-year notes every month for the first time since the issue was discontinued in 1993. Sales of 30-year bonds will double to eight times a year and the Treasury will say in May whether the bond will be sold every month.
For Barack Obamas administration, the step-up in borrowing costs comes as it is fighting to secure an $800bn-plus fiscal stimulus, and is likely to need many hundreds of billions more to fund a banking sector clean-up.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee expressed concern on Wednesday over the sharp jump in net borrowing needs which market analysts estimate could reach $1,500bn to $2,500bn for the 2009 financial year.
Traders are particularly concerned about the appetite for Treasuries among foreign investors, who hold more than half the outstanding $5,500bn in Treasury debt.
In recent years, demand for US government debt has been stoked by developing countries running huge trade surpluses with the US and recycling dollars by buying Treasuries. However, many are facing growing pressure to stimulate their own economies and are seeing their current account surpluses decline as global demand diminishes.
The 30yr yield increased from 2.83 on Jan 02 to 3.65 on Feb 4 - that is almost +30%
The tax break for homebuyers, which the Senate approved by voice vote without opposition, was the second amendment in two days aimed at encouraging consumers to make major purchases.
A lot of expenditures, not a lot to show for it. Way to go, guys. Kill my attempt at optimism. (Optimism being that the government will waste slightly less of my hard-earned money.)
hilarious, if everyone has $15k that isn't theirs then guess how much housing prices will probably get bid up beyond a natural market clearing price.....about $15k. and to raise the money for the $15k give away they have to raise it...and raise it/take it away from someone that would have spent the $15k
I especially like the irony regarding the deductions on autos. (which is designed to put more of them on the roads) while not backing the building or repair of said roads.
"Basel - taking a step back or two, why do we need HDTV? Will it promote general welfare in excess of the cost of transition? How might one know?
I'm not baiting, but as someone who no longer watches tv, I'm just wondering why."
The gov't claims ownership of radio air space, and the telcos wants the bands for wireless digital...oh yes prescious, they wants it.
The general welfare doesn't enter into it. The gov'ts does. Fewer rubes watching Jerry Springer is like Rome closing Circus Maximus to the general public. Not a good move, if one wants to avoid pitch forks and torches.
it's just a more advanced way of digging holes and filling them back up.
politically, the conversion was a favor to the telecommunications industry; the idea was that once people realized how crappy broadcast digital was, they would shift to cable/satellite.
problem was that the depression got in the way, and the subscription increases never materialized...
Counterpointer:
i think they HDTV switch frees up valuable broadcast spectrum for critical response, emergency, police, fire, etc communications. it's not the only reason but it's a benefit.
Sany Heavy Industry Co., Chinas biggest supplier of concrete-making equipment, plans to cut its chairmans annual salary to 15 cents and slash the pay of board members by as much as 90 percent because of the financial crisis....
The board wont consider pay cuts for employees below mid- level management, the statement said.
I don't know. 15k would move me, the DH, the cat, and all our stuff from Oregon to New Hampshire-- less in taxes, lower housing costs. Or, I'd lower the sales price of the Oregon house by 15k to move it a little faster. I can see the appeal, even if it is effed up in the macro sense.
"Seen much evidence of that on the scale it's collected?"
Well the remodel of the freeways in The OC and IE were enormously pricey little vanity projects (I can't recall where the MTA got it's money for the hole...erm...subway from Pasadena to Union Station). Value from the money...no...but given the agency spending the money, I'm surprised it was even somewhat spent on reducing transaction costs.
Tripleplay writes:"This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish."
Not to be contrary, but don't you still have to qualify for a loan? Last I heard, it's getting harder and harder to qualify. It's hard to blow a bubble when the only people getting credit are those that don't need it! (And at least in the more "desirable" areas of California, the prices still haven't retreated to match median incomes...although we are getting there).
(Now if they start relaxing loan guidelines...whoa boy...)
Point taken......there is evidence however most of it is useless. I'm so glad that the 15/91 interchange they spent untold billions ( the entire process) on goes from four lanes down to one in the space of about 300 yards. It actually makes traffic worse then it was previously.
The new guidelines cap the pay of all top executives at $500,000 a year for any company that receives exceptional assistance from taxpayers. The cap needs to be considered by any company that takes money from the government from this point on, but it isnt binding unless the situation is extraordinary. Treasury used AIG and the Bank of America and Citigroup transactions under the Targeted Investment Program as examples.
No offense, but there just isn't that much to say about $15k tax credits for home purchases. So, OT, did anyone read Denninger's piece about declining demand deposit balances? Is the guy missing something/off base with his post?
"At the rate we are going, I would just hold out for a better offer from the government."
Hmmmm....be afraid what you wish for. They might start taking Elvis seriously, but use B52's instead of bulldozers.
Remember always, these schemes are attempts to keep the Banksters and banks solvent, not help the average person. Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 10:39 pm | #
If their modus operandi is to prop up house prices they better start supporting people who have mortgage payments and no job, those with mortgage payments they can't afford and a job and those without any savings, no mortgage and no job. Because those three groups will crush you're $15K tax credit.
Don't you see Mr. Government, if you burden the people with too much debt, tax them beyond what their incomes supports and implore them to consume, you're going to end up with empty pockets filled with idle hands grasping at lint.
MS writes - YES!! LOL! Buy cars, but god dam it! We will not build any roads with tax dollars...can we give a tax cut to someone to build a road.LOL!!!
oohboy, I can't discuss DTV broadcasts without my blood getting to a boil. It's not a handout to corporations, it's not swindling people of their free TV, it's simple math. Analog broadcasts waste too much bandwidth (like having 100 million 'free' parking spaces in San Francisco while everyone else with a postage stamp sized lot pays all the property taxes). The signal isn't worse, either you are outside their designed coverage or you are not using the right type of antenna. They could broadcast at higher power, or consume more bandwidth with for extra error correction codes -- or they could just ignore people demanding everyone else pays for their "free tv". It's not like the switchover was a big surprise, and most areas are getting more channels, not less.
It's a simple matter, but people are too damned emotional about their picture stories.
On-topic:
If someone was in the top tax bracket, would it not make sense now to play musical houses and purchase a new primary residence each year for the $15,000 tax credit. You could get wealthy tax credit clubs surfacing where they exchange ownership and stay in their own house
That's the biggest impact I see, no way is the tax credit enough today to bring current prices within range of a foreseeable bottom
Agreed, but the loss of value of an unoccupied home would be great. Most people move to an upgrade of their former home, I presume.
GS Rome
.
"Downsizing" is the new upgrade. The Boomers started doing that a couple of years ago, and it's accelerating as the peak Boomers begin to retire. Anybody who sold the big house in 2006 and rents is sitting pretty on a pile of cash right now.
Excellent move by the Senate! (snark) So I'll just dump my underwater place on the bank, buy a new place, collect a $15K tax credit to cover the moving expenses, and reset my property taxes and mortage at a much lower level!
The purchase of existing homes 'definetly' adds to the economy by contributing to workers incomes such as; loan officers, real estate agents, escrow officers, home inspectors, underwriters, loan processors, appraisers, temps, title companies, home improvement companies, furnishing co's, painters, carpet installers, property managers, etc!
(1) They still have to coome up with the downpayment in the first place. How many have that 10-20% in their bank account in the US, the land of the negative savings rate until recently?
(2) They still have to make the payments and prices are still not in proportion to income in so very very very many places.
(3) And as a collary to (2), they have to have the expectation that they will not lose their job...
And it is true that house prices will go up. Lower the interest rate and the realtor still focuses solely on the monthly payment and ignores the price and what hapens when you try to sell after interest rates have gone back up as they will. Hand out $15,000 in fre money and you will see sale contracts written with a balloon payment due right after the tax credit puts cash in the buyer's pocket -- and the price will stay up.
If someone was in the top tax bracket, would it not make sense now to play musical houses and purchase a new primary residence each year for the $15,000 tax credit. You could get wealthy tax credit clubs surfacing where they exchange ownership and stay in their own house
That's the biggest impact I see, no way is the tax credit enough today to bring current prices within range of a foreseeable bottom
EvilHenryPaulson
.
I guess I can imagine a club like that, but someone's going to squeal like a pig, sooner or later, and break the syndicate.
If you did it through the system, the in-and-out costs with realtors, inspections, etc. are non-trivial. And people with cash usually have lots of stuff, plus they want to keep their kids in the 'best' schools. So the PITA factor makes yearly moves unlikely, just for 15k, IMO. You used to get more than that as a moving allowance, in some circles.
ARW - In 2000 the national debt was 5 trillion...in 2008, after mostly CONservative control (6 of the 8 years) we have a national debt of 11 trillion...
No? The wireless companies paid how much for those bands? (pssst...they wouldn't have spent $x on lobbying [bribing] congang members if the value/cost of purchasing said spectrum, $y < $x).
Ok, so here's a nice O/T confusing picture. Bloomie says Japan stocks slide but shippers gain, esp on iron ore demand, which apparently is reflected in Dryships coming back up after huge crash.
Soo, is demand driving the story, or collapse of supply? If it's the latter then we're still skrood, because demand for primary inputs is down. If the former, then it's because of recovering confidence that the ore gets turned into something useful that end-demand consumers will buy.
Hey guys,
I think we're approaching this all wrong. $15,000 primary residence tax credit prints up real nice on banners and rolls off the voice artists' tongue during re-election advertisements.
It's politics
[still curious about the idea of buying a new house each year to collect tax credits on high income folks]
why is there no discussion about the Obama salary cap plan... it's a friggin' band aid, only to be used for the Uber-Beggars! doesn't say squat that I can tell about Sr VPs or MDs at TARPed banks...
here's a vid mash-up I did over my displeasure with tax cheats Geithner and Daschle...
Policy makers are readying an overhaul of the Treasurys financial-bailout program, which may come early next week, and a strategy to stem record mortgage foreclosures.
The focus of the financial recovery plan will be on maintaining the overall flow of credit in the economy, Summers said. It will include government support for the credit markets and capital infusions into major financial institutions.
More capital injections into MAJOR financial institutions. I'm not seeing the N-word between the lines.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
Wireless auctions bring in good money. You could argue better auctions could be organized (Canada's recent wireless auctions set the new standard in $/Hz, but that could be negative as that means service providers have to charge a higher rate to recoup license fees)
The switch from analog to digital itself has nothing to do with how low or high the government licenses spectrum at. If taxes were better connected to spending, you would appreciate the indirect (Ricardian) tax savings.
Counterpointer
Perhaps it is my phenomenon of finding returns by pressuring consumer surplus arriving a few months early?
The measure would give buyers a tax credit of 10 percent of the price of a primary residence purchased within the year, up to $15,000 ...
But no credits for those of us who boosted the market by making a purchase within the last 3 years?
Our purchase in the now-cratered IE in July '06 has cost us half the 6 figure equity we built up over the previous 16 years, which at our 60 plus age, can never be recovered in even the most optimistic recovery fantasy.
We're done with these a**holes, will become "stay-ins", adding the non-paid P&I and RE taxes to our 6 figure savings, walk away in a year (thanks Sen Dodd for the additional 3 months national foreclosure moratorium) and buy a SFR for cash, living mortgage free while our fico recovers, and hoping millions of other underwater boiling mortgage frogs will do the same.
Very hard to believe congress has at once relieved the banks and brokers of their bad mortgage collateralized assets, while at the same time bullying the hopelessly underwater mortgagors to continue amortizing mortgages 2-3-4 times the still-declining value of the depreciated assets.
Without naming names or being political, we are disappointed at the 'manufacturing of consent' by congress and the msm, and the underwhelming responce of the otherwise alert blogs, to the essence of congress continuing to cater to the demands of their corrupt corporate sponsors, at the expense of the hapless taxpayer, in times of worldwide credit, commerce and wage collapse.
[still curious about the idea of buying a new house each year to collect tax credits on high income folks]
EvilHenryPaulson
.
What are we talking about in terms of 'high income?' To me, anybody around 100k - 200k probably isn't going to move every year, because of PITA factor noted above. Even when I was flipping houses (and living in them) I couldn't stand to move every year. That's 2 24-foot Ryder trucks, and then some. And I don't have kids.
The bracket that might go for this is a lower income type, maybe 50k - 100k, younger, with far less stuff. Like a doctor in residency. Actually, the more I think about this, it could work for a very young near-nomad minimalist type with good income and no relationships. Like a daytrader. Hey boys, this one's for you!
I think EHP is talking about flipping houses in title only. Basically, the housing version of what many people do with cars; re-titling them with intra-family sales to take advantage of lower property taxes.
Just wait, new down payment asistance program...gov't akes it from an 4/15 event to an on dman applications..lenders front the 10% then help you fill out the paerwork for thecredit.
MORAL: Although it isn't rocket science, there is some science involved. So, don't bitch about the forecasts unless you know something of what you're talking about.
peAk - I think you are taking the best path, stay as long as you can...then when they come to evict you, you can probably work them one final time for 2-3k, by asking them for "cash for keys"!!
amon,
I do have my flaws and weaknesses, but acquiring and processing new information is something I'm naturally drawn to. Not to mention informed people here give me an easy time when it comes to mistakes so I come off looking better than I should.
This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
I don't think so. Specific bubbles are once-in-a-lifetime. You can't recreate the conditions of the tech bubble, for example, and suddenly find yourself back in the late 90s. This bubble is gone. If people want an unsustainable thing to invest in, it will have to be somewhere else.
WASHINGTON -- The White House's nominee for Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon Panetta, has earned more than $700,000 in speaking and consulting fees since the beginning of 2008, with some of the payments coming from troubled financial firms and from a firm that invests in contractors for federal national security agencies, according to financial disclosures released Wednesday.
Mr. Panetta received $56,000 from Merrill Lynch & Co. for two speeches and $28,000 for a speech for Wachovia Corp., according to disclosures released ahead of Thursday's scheduled Senate hearing on Mr. Panetta's nomination.
Both Merrill and Wachovia reported big losses last year and were acquired by larger firms. The Wachovia honorarium was dated Oct. 30, and the last Merrill Lynch honorarium was dated Oct. 11, according to disclosure forms filed by Mr. Panetta in connection with his nomination. At the time, Bank of America had agreed to a rescue of Merrill Lynch; Wachovia had agreed to be acquired by Wells Fargo & Co.
I think EHP is talking about flipping houses in title only. Basically, the housing version of what many people do with cars; re-titling them with intra-family sales to take advantage of lower property taxes.
pro forma stimulus
.
I know, that's why I said sooner or later someone would squeal and bust the syndicate. People are nasty that way, and a lot of people are really, really pissed off about this whole housing debacle. Look at peAk, he's ready to tear someone a new asshole, and I don't blame him.
I hear ya mp..however deflation it may be because of the factors that are obviously creating it. One thing that all of it doesn't account for is the system's need and ability to "create".
That's why I am in the inflation camp....no other reason. I couldn't agree more with your rationale but the system has no other place, vehicle to achieve yield. The oil game of last year was the silent hint to all.
Is the $15k credit designed to make people who are currently renting stop renting and buy a house? That will push down rents further. If rents are down, fewer people will buy rental property. It seems to me no net change. You just shift some people from renting to owning, but you've still got the huge underlying problem of 2 million more housing units than families.
Most people who will buy a home under this plan already rent a home. The plan only helps (i.e. help = making housing expensive) to the extent that people who are living with family decide to buy a house to get the credit.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Houston - Hempstead Lawrence Marshall car dealership closes
Ray Childress, Lawrence Marshalls CEO, owner and former football star, was the face of the company and known for the slogan We clobber big city prices.
Yes, the executive compensation cap is definitely a nothingburger. Doesn't go down the chain far enough. Only applies to future recipients (e.g. JPM/WFC) of "exceptional" rescues. Anyways, I'm sure Wall Street will concoct a Daschlesque "strategic adviser" loophole if push came to shove.
Saw your youtube stuff. Not a big fan of Summers either, i see...
Erm, I'm still none the wiser. I can see the political economy of moving to HDTV as a supply side gig, but with the consumer tapped out and heading for further pain, where's the household balance sheet equation that says getting sharper focus on the teevee is as - or more - important than my rising credit costs, schooling, health care, whatever...?
It's these kinds of questions that I get certain answers to which make me think, as a furriner, I really don't understand this place. Love it to bits, but understand it, no.
Let me boil it down:
- the US is facing the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression
- the US is pursuing an expensive refinement of an existing technology, to extremely marginal welfare impacts.
It's not like the switchover was a big surprise, and most areas are getting more channels, not less. EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 11:17 pm | #
Here in Marin County the answer is less channels.
I tried the converter box last month and got zero channels.
I went to Radio Shack to buy an aerial. The clerk warned me to save all the packaging stuff for when I returned it. I asked why she warned me. She said that most of southern Marin was having HDTV reception problems and that a new aerial would not help. If the new aerial did help, then keep it; otherwise, return it to the store.
The new aerial did not work, so I gave it and the converter box to my assistant who lives in San Francisco. Her second TV is now HD.
Aw, to hell with the damned link. You're all grownups here. It's the CPIAUCNS series. mp | 02.04.09 - 11:42 pm | # ---- CR Companion to the rescue: Link
Comrade Misean is Dope,
If you want to debate ownership, well I was under the impression that the government already granted the licenses to the analog stations. You might as well debate a municipal government's right to engage in land use planning/zoning.
It's a limited resource that completely fails without definitive allocation and standards.
You seem to be simultaneously arguing no government involvement, and the right to standardized and allocated spectrum for your free tv but with fewer channels and a noisier/distorted signal.
From a technical angle, relicensing the spectrum is a no brainer. As specious as some of the political arguments appear to be, I would like to stay out of that end of things.
Ricardo never accounted for the flexibility of credit and expectations. Wealth is a bounded system, and without alchemy the identity holds (but it's not very useful when such distortionary and loosely governed factors can take over for so long. It's about as useful as saying what evaporates into clouds will come down as precipitation. You need the when, where, how)
I'm talking about commodity inflation. I can't account for the wealth and credit destruction....and the system can't either. But they have a need to achieve returns....I can think of no better place to get it then to inflate that portion of the market.
It makes absolutely no sense, which is why I agree with the mp (and many others) on deflation. It just doesn't make any provision for what can be created for no other reason than to "create".
The new aerial did not work
If you can get it up above the other houses and trees and run twin-lead or coaxial cable down to your receiver (converter box), you'll get better results. It's best to have a mast, but you could just set the antenna on the chimney and get good results.
"I'm talking about commodity inflation. I can't account for the wealth and credit destruction....and the system can't either. But they have a need to achieve returns....I can think of no better place to get it then to inflate that portion of the market.
It makes absolutely no sense, which is why I agree with the mp (and many others) on deflation. It just doesn't make any provision for what can be created for no other reason than to "create"."
The more hedge funds blown out of the water the harder it will be to manipulate commodities and other markets on a large scale.
Each down-cycle has been blowing up more and more hedge funds. This and coming regulation should somewhat negate their ability going forward to blowup the next bubble market.
Come on, you can say it.. mp | 02.04.09 - 11:50 pm | # ----- No matter how to play with the numbers, we apparently are down low enough that only GD v.1.0 can match it and only the Depression of 1921 beats it.
And, yes, I'm trolling a bit here: From Krugman's article, it appears that all we have to do to avoid the deflation trap is pass Obama's stimulus plan. Am I being too cynical, here?
Hey, mp, welcome and thanks! Another thing that link shows, is the relative frequency of recessions before about 1940. We've had fewer of them since WWII, and they've been milder, except for this one. Maybe we're reverting to some sort of norm. In any case, it may be adding to the psychological shock, especially since there are so many young people who have never experienced anything like this before.
Typical Washington...This guy is still living in 1974. What worked then has No chance today. I hate to admit this doofus is MY representative. I have gone to his office and tried to talk sense to his staff and got the usual...thanks for playing..."next". What good is a tax credit when UNEMPLOYED...Can't buy w/o a friggin' JOB! Blew a lot of hot air but solved nothing....Mission Accomplished!
The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns.
why am I so pissed about those bunch of tax cheats? during the last recession in NYC in 1991 I was working only part-time (tough times) and incorrectly anticipated that my income would be X dollars and took a few extra withholding allowances because I needed the money then not in April 1992... so I ended up underpaying the IRS by 1,100 dollars... by '96 they had a lien against a crap rental property of which I owned 30% of and nearly were able to put it up for auction...
my tax rebate was grabbed by them in '97... the final bill with penalties upon penalties was a bit over 6,200 I believe...
and then I see what penalties these jackasses had to pay nad it's no where close to the Draconian amount I had to pay....
the difference was and is I could not afford a high priced tax attorney to negotiate away many of the penalties...
NorkaWest,
Apparently the digital broadcasts don't go up to full power until the analog is taken offline.
The sooner the transition happens, the better.
Digital is with Frequency modulation schemes (just like FM vs AM). This makes it more susceptible to physical interference (multi-path propagation, attenuation from rain , ...) but as long as the signal can make it there you should get crystal clear reception. That digital nature of the beast is that you either get it perfect, or you don't get anything useful at all, with only a narrow band of failure where the ECC covers over the errors.
If you're putting the antenna outside or something, and have a long cable between the two you need to make sure it's not being attenuated into the noise floor. A cheap amp would make that right as rai
From Krugman's article, it appears that all we have to do to avoid the deflation trap is pass Obama's stimulus plan. Am I being too cynical, here? RockyR | 02.04.09 - 11:57 pm | # ----- Krugman: "...in the absence of a policy action the average output gap will average 6.8 percent over the next two years. Do the math: if anything like the historical relationship between output and inflation holds, we're looking at major deflation."
You aren't being too cynical. The CBO has stated the above scenario, and Krugman is riding that line to legitimately peddle his latest ware(s). For him, it is the stimulus plan that will make or break the "major deflation", and for me, the stimulus plan seems like it is making Pelosi & Obama are vying for D.C. Dominance at the moment.
Stimulus would be a "policy action" that could help us all out, but what kind of Swamp Thang we actually get is where your cynisim is rooted...
Krugman's writings have consistently said that the stimulus round being discussed is not enough to sustain demand, and that the greater danger is in undershooting (too small) rather than overshooting.
I would add that avoiding the deflation trap and depression is impossible and has been impossible for quite a while now, possibly the past couple of years.
All the options are about how to best cope with it as a society - i.e., cushion the blow for those most vulnerable and reposition for a long and slow recovery. There is no cure. Only better and worse ways to survive, and ways to do more serious damage.
That digital nature of the beast is that you either get it perfect, or you don't get anything useful at all, with only a narrow band of failure where the ECC covers over the errors. EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 12:00 am | #
When I last looked, there were several bands of S/N quality reception. I never dug thru the final ATV standard. What happened?
crispy&cole writes:
peAk - I think you are taking the best path, stay as long as you can...then when they come to evict you, you can probably work them one final time for 2-3k, by asking them for "cash for keys"!!
crispy&cole | 02.04.09 - 11:38 pm | #
We'll be gone before that, and I'll offer the renter some fair share of the banks offer.
Counterpointer,
The digital broadcast switch doesn't mean you need to buy a new TV, an old clunker from 1980 will do just as well as a newer one. The conversion boxes just take in a digital signal and output the same old analog signal the TVs have been consuming for decades.
The upside is a longer term thing where mobile internet service should become faster, more widespread, and cheaper. It won't be long before cell phone companies end up charging by the amount of data (text messages + emails costing zilch)
JP,
I would probably know if it affected me directly. I am jealous that the US is further ahead in reducing freeing up bandwidth for more productive uses (who here wouldn't want a cheaper cell phone bill for starters)
as Merrill's losses were soaring, BofA Chief Executive Ken Lewis told U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke he was having second thoughts, the paper said, according to people close to Lewis.
But Paulson and Bernanke on Dec. 17 "forcefully urged Mr. Lewis not to walk away," the paper reported. They warned Lewis that if the deal collapsed, Merrill could be doomed and that their confidence in Bank of America would be "undercut."
Days later, Bernanke told Lewis Bank of America had no grounds to walk away, the Journal reported, citing people who heard the remarks. Another Federal Reserve official warned that if Lewis did walk away and later needed more government money, regulators might consider ousting executives and directors, people close to the bank say. US pushed Bank of America to complete Merrill buy-WSJ
| Reuters
The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns.
This is no sure thing. mp | 02.05.09 - 12:00 am | #
I just have a very hard time believing that a stimulus package of Keynesian redistribution that relies on additional federal borrowing (threatening higher resultant interest rates) will save the system from deflationary collapse. Just my $.02.
I just have a very hard time believing that a stimulus package of Keynesian redistribution that relies on additional federal borrowing (threatening higher resultant interest rates) will save the system from deflationary collapse.
But because of the Republican changes, we'll never know, will we?
I would have hoped they used this time to strike the AMT and simplified the tax structure -- it's not like their spending plans are sensitive to revenues right now. Should have stricken the payroll tax while they were at it.
But since the AMT was untouched, it's probably going to be there for a long time.
In a deflationary collapse there won't be significantly higher interest rates (significant not to someone who makes a bad bet on appreciation of T bonds, but significant in terms of borrowing costs).
The potential problem of hyper-inflation will be faced only when the deflationary spiral is halted. That sounds like it takes hyper-inflation lightly, but that is not the case. It is a judgement of relative risk: which is more dangerous: deflationary collapse or hyper-inflation? Krugman and many others say strong and prolonged deflation is the greater danger and harder to treat.
He writes:
"The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns."
I would change aborted before takeoff to say that it just hasn't taken off yet.
We're inside of a process. The proposal is being changed everyday - and I agree that the changes have on balance been in the wrong direction. But the process isn't over, and the way things are going may yet give Obama a chance to put his own stamp on much more deeply. We'll see. I expect a vigorous push back to start imminently
Comrade Misean is Dope,
A suitable analogy for regulating radio bandwidth eluded me at the time, a good one would be how airspace is regulated for planes and helicopters. It would be akin to having airlines upgrade their cockpits for the first time since the 1950s in order to fit more planes in the sky at one time by exploiting the smaller margin of safety necessary between planes.
I don't know of too many pilots that like the idea of a free for all in the skies (best example of that being Brazil in recent history) because that impairs the value for all
I would have hoped they used this time to strike the AMT and simplified the tax structure EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 12:11 am | #
They will not simplify the tax code. It is a critical source of campaign contributions. Every other year, they review the tax code and all the campaign contributions roll in, just in time for the election.
It is similar to city and county governments repaving roads in the year before an election. Some might argue that this is elected officials demonstrating tax dollars working effectively. Realistic voters know that if contractors are flush with construction dollars in an election year, the contractors are more generous when campaign fundraisers call.
TCA - thanks for a functional link. Looks like it could be added to CR's cliffdiving meme. Although I've got data, methdology, time series consistency etc problems with these kinds of indicators, surely there needs to be a better communications strategy about what happens under various scenaarios?
Anony - I'm not against rural bb access, it's just how it's provided and who pays.
In a deflationary collapse there won't be significantly higher interest rates (significant not to someone who makes a bad bet on appreciation of T bonds, but significant in terms of borrowing costs). joe shmoe | 02.05.09 - 12:16 am | #
I got confused, here. Are you saying that borrowing costs would not increase, but treasury yields may?
joe shmoe,
It's not about the stimulus plan. Look at the money the Treasury is providing to/through the Federal Reserve and FDIC. Even the export-import bank will have their budget raised counter to the declining trade
Now the Federal Reserve is buying mortgages to modify + guarantee through the FDIC, the FDIC just guaranteed a GE bond issue in Hong Kong Dollars.
Even if the stimulus package were optimally spent, it would still be a sideshow to the main event
So I'm willing to bet this is like the 7.5k "credit" before where it had to be paid back. Granted, it was interest free, but still.
My question has been, can I get somebody like HR Block to give me a tax credit pre-check so I can put the money towards my down payment, thus getting me out of paying PMI... I smell a business plan.
Sure, I'll give you 12k now for the 15k tax credit you are going to be receiving and we'll use the house you are buying as collateral..
PDX Renter III,
You don't get a $15k refund. You get 10% of purchase price up to $15k as a tax credit (your top marginal income tax rate x $15k = fresh money from govt)
the change in borrowing costs can be insignificant to the borrower, but cause a significant loss to a poorly timed investment.
long bond yield just went up 30%. bad for people who bought them last month. not so bad for the govt still borrowing for 30 years at 3.65% or so (though not as good as borrowing at 2.8%)
Counterpointer,
Look no further than the USD strengthening and Owner's Equivalent Rent to explain that CPI. OER makes up a huge portion of the index, and is why inflation was understated on the way up.
Vacant homes entering the market and driving down rents in conjunction with bad income/job scenario.
we do need tax cuts.Everybody should get a cut. why would you want the government to spend all your money wastefully? If the private sector fails, let them fail. They need to cut spending.
Appealing concept. I wonder what the cost of a 20% tax credit up to $60,000 would cost. I'd rather cushion the fall rather than giving these outlandish giveaways to insolvent companies.
So for an overpriced 350K home in a metro area I get less than 5% off? Then I promptly lose it all in equity burn. This is akin to the deal the government wants to give on new autos. There it was up to $1500 off on a new car.
Yeah, hold everything! I'm gonna run out and spend 30K on a new auto for $1500!
This tells me the stimulus is 99% certain to fail. Idiots in Washington just going through the motions. Their lives are padded and their kids go to Harvard and Yale. They are evil lying sc-m buckets! Dirt b-gs! Vile putrescence!!!
You have to hunt them down. No other recourse. They're morons with tactical nukes.
What sweet irony it would be if Paulson and Bernanke were prosecuted under the PATRIOT Act's anti-terror provisions for their role in the Bear Stearns' sale:
So I live in a 150K townhome, next to my good friend next door, in a 150K townhome. We each do a FSBO to each other, move the furniture (wink, wink), and pocket the credit.
the change in borrowing costs can be insignificant to the borrower, but cause a significant loss to a poorly timed investment.
long bond yield just went up 30%. bad for people who bought them last month. not so bad for the govt still borrowing for 30 years at 3.65% or so (though not as good as borrowing at 2.8%) joe shmoe | 02.05.09 - 12:31 am | #
Hm. I would say a change in mortgage rates from 5.5% to, oh, say... 10%, would have a pretty painful impact on anyone looking to borrow under those terms. Or, if a company's float went from 5% to 8% they may have to cut costs somwhere else. Such pain would further depress economic activity at a time when things are already pretty bad.
Now, if you are proposing that mortgages may trade at rates below treasury yields in a deflationary spiral, then I can follow you. Whatever the case, our discussion is academic. In a deflationary spiral, there won't be a lot of consumption-oriented borrowing going on to begin with!
I didn't have time to read all the comments so if this was covered I apologize. But the question I have is can this tax credit be monitized, ie. used for a down payment and if so is this just a back door way to the no down loan again.
... Karthik Ramanathan, the Treasury's acting assistant secretary for financial markets, said the gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs....
------- I am concerned about a repeat of 1997. None of the emerging economies will get funding in the face of this tsunami.
gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs.... RE | 02.05.09 - 12:51 am | #
This just seems unreal to me - that increasing our debt load by a third wouldn't prompt our creditors to demand a higher risk premium. I suppose we can finance huge funding needs, but I have a hard time believing it won't come at a cost. That said, people are pretty stupid.
If the government's expected to run a $1.6T deficit, and rolling over ~$2 Trillion, then the debt needed should be about $3.6T.
I'm assuming then that the other $4T will be issued to sterilize the Fed's liquidity injections to the banks. (UST pulls money from the private sector through the sales of UST and leaves the cash in the FRB's account).
Don't know if you remember, but I've been touting Talbott for years. I read his book soon after it's publication in 2003; real prescient stuff. Put me onto other good books, websites, etc. and led to the discovery of my bearish alter ego (aka "the bear" in "tj & the bear").
we do need ponies.Everybody should get a pony. why wouldn't you want the government to give you a pony? If the pony fails, let them give you another pony. They need to give us po
"signing statements" Speed | 02.05.09 - 12:54 am | #
Scary shit, that. So childish of Bush to sign legislation and then immediately stamp his own twisted interpretation on it. Please please please... Obama don't go there!
I'm assuming then that the other $4T will be issued to sterilize the Fed's liquidity injections to the banks. (UST pulls money from the private sector through the sales of UST and leaves the cash in the FRB's account). anonymous | 02.05.09 - 12:56 am | #
I agree though I expect the budget deficit to be closer to 2 trillion and potentially somewhat higher.
ok folks...so how many homes do you think we can buy & then sell, amongst ourselves in a one year window? Recruit some overly optimistic appraisals to jack up the 10% and we're in bizness...
don't lol...you know someone's making plans right now....
This will also affect disposable income and result in less consumption:
No link, it is from Gary Shilling's insight:
... The California Public Employees Retirement System...saw its assets drop from $260 billion on Oct. 31, 2007 to $193 billion a year later... That pushed the ratio of the fund's assets to liabilities from 102% in June 2007 to a likely 68% in June of this year, well below the 80% or more ratio for a healthy pension fund. As a result, Calpers will probably require state employer members to increase their contributions from 13% of payroll to 15% to 17% in July 2010.
The $27 billion Pennsylvania state employees' pension fund used an exotic leveraged strategy called portable alpha to invest $9.2 billion with hedge funds under the assumption they would beat the stock market. They didn't last year,and it probably cost the pension fund $2.5 billion, which may require the state to quadruple its annual contribution to $1 billion in 2012. ...
Rocky,
Aren't you in Tx? Thought I read that somewhere along the way. If not, I apologize.
I'm in houston.
I only ask, because wouldn't you see the 15K going a very long way in Tx RE market? It has made me reconsider purchasing.
...all can play along. but no f'n texas jokes, damn it. (i keed, i keed)
AIG Federal Savings Bank has been FDIC insured since May 15, 2000.
It was established on May 15, 2000.
Its main office (headquarters) is located at:
One Alico Plaza, 600 King Street
Wilmington, Delaware 19801
County of New Castle
Is this a "refundable" tax credit or, similar to the $7500 credit, a non-refundable tax credit? In case of the latter, I would assume that one must have a Federal tax liability of at least 15K in order for one to get the maximum benefit?
So, for someone making only an average 60K salary in, say, Arizona, this will only really be worth about 10K.
Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.
volker and obama - trying to clean the mess up left by people in the age gap between them... lord, if you exist, help these men find the sufficient wisdom to clean up the boomer wreckage.
When the economic team was announced, I knew that there was no way that Summers would yield to Volcker, despite Volcker's resume and physical stature. You don't get to be where Summers has been without being a major prick.
Still, I thought that the triumvirate of Summer (macro), Volcker (banking), and Romer (domestic economic policy) could work, given that each covers a slightly different economic niche. Spoke to several people this week. No doubt about it. The macro-finance picture is run by Summers, with Goolsbee as his lapdog. Romer is in charge of the "soft" economic stuff, like stimulus (notice how user friendly that ARRP presentation was). Volcker is effectively out, and that is why the government will not nationalize.
Sounds like Volcker was used for election period window dressing...or
maybe he had one meeting, where he
suggested we take our medicine, and
got himself uninvited to the looting.
Summers and other White House officials said Volcker has continued to play an important role consulting on revamping financial regulations and briefed Obama on the issue last week at a White House meeting with Summers and Geithner.
That has been the only time Volcker has visited the White House since the inauguration, including yesterday when the ex- Fed chief was in Washington to testify before Congress on the need for stepped up government oversight of the financial system. In addition, Volcker hasnt been publicly mentioned as taking an active role in economic recovery plans.
What people need are tax breaks on products that help them lead healthy enjoyable lifes, empowering their brains, rejuvenating their hearts, etc, the natural way. More details at link below. Some great information there.
My first home bought in 1975 cost $32,950 a 3/2/2 w/1,550sq new with 30 yr fix 8% conventional to be paid in full in 2005..my how times have changed. I asked dear old dad for $1,000 to cover some of the down payment and was turned down. Bought it anyway and could not afford a lawnmower the first summer had to borrow dear old dad's. Age:22
Volcker was 23 in 1950, but did not fight in Korea.
Instead he chose to work at the Fed straight from school. I hope he has the humility to realize that the institution he's been such a part of for all of these decades has totally failed.
From December The FCC late Tuesday said it was releasing two reports with maps and charts outlining the changes in TV coverage areas from analog to digital service for all 1,749 full-power TV staions in the U.S. They show that 89% of stations (1,533) will see a net gain of viewers in the switch to digital, while 11% (196 stations) will have a net loss.
The biggest problems right now are the digital towers are not at full power while the analog ones are still running, some people need to sort out the wiring inside their homes (if they have a lot of splitters, long lead from the antenna), or their old antenna is poor at receiving the digital signals (need the right length for half wave resonance)
Daschle, Killefer and Richardson are all lessons in how compromised any person in our elite have become. The disconnect between how the masses are expected to live and comply versus anyone with power and wealth is galling.
Pres Obama is learning a very big lesson early on that no matter what he wants to accomplish the people he wants to lead this circus really aren't the best for the job.
He'd do better finding obscure professors(non ivy league) who have written some books and papers in relevant areas and appointing them. Have them bring along their favorite grad students and let them set policy. How could they make it any worse FFS?
Stamford, Connecticut-based GE Capital sold three-year floating-rate notes paying 0.2 percentage point more than the three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate, according to an e- mail sent to investors today. HSBC, a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, managed the top investment grade-rated sale.
What the heck is making the nightly news or morning paper if that isn't?
Gold prices may hit $1,500 (Dh5,509) an ounce in the next 12 to 15 months, Gary Dugan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Merrill Lynch, said yesterday.
Dugan termed his apprehensions of gold striking such a high as a "fear" that may come true. He reasoned that such a price would mean the other commodities and streams of investments have been shunned by investors.
With confidence in currencies shaken to the core, the yellow metal is increasingly assuming the role of "the most trusted currency", Dugan said. "We have never seen such a rush to buy gold. It's bringing in security and it's still affordable." ...
Re: He'd do better finding obscure professors(non ivy league) who have written some books and papers in relevant areas and appointing them. Have them bring along their favorite grad students and let them set policy.
No, BIG mistake, keep the nepotism of the grad student out of the equation; just bring the prof, then have him take charge of the staffers already in place, and then base their pay on performance, or kick them out....
The fundamental poison is that we don't have enough good paying jobs, or the willingness to defend those jobs. Housing is secondary to employment. If you can't get a good job, how can you afford a good house?
On a side note, I loved the 2nd degree that congress gave to the SEC wednesday.
Even now, Citigroup Inc.s bosses cant get over their delusions of grandeur.
You can see their shiny optimism in a $44 billion balance- sheet item called deferred-tax assets, which is a fancy term for pent-up losses that the bank hopes to use later to cut its tax bills. That figure tells you Citigroups executives, in spite of their banks near-collapse, are still forecasting future profits as far as the eye can see. They have every incentive to do this, too. If they ever turned pessimistic, the assets might go poof.
FFDIC
Saw that as well. They haven't been the only bank in the world to use past losses as Tier 1 capital under the guise of tax credits. My favourite though is when they record a capital gain by writing down the value of their outstanding debt to the market price. Level 3 "no model needed now" is just tired
Even now, Citigroup Inc.s bosses cant get over their delusions of grandeur.
You can see their shiny optimism in a $44 billion balance- sheet item called deferred-tax assets, which is a fancy term for pent-up losses that the bank hopes to use later to cut its tax bills. That figure tells you Citigroups executives, in spite of their banks near-collapse, are still forecasting future profits as far as the eye can see. They have every incentive to do this, too. If they ever turned pessimistic, the assets might go poof.
FFDIC | 02.05.09 - 2:09 am |
Mark to Citi. The new Bad Bank slogan. CNN is working on the graphic and theme music.
bgates
conglomerate banks aren't the problem, inasmuch there should be separation between deposits/cheques/wire transfers/etc from proprietary trading/debt securitization/bridge loans/SIVs/etc
Have the utility banking level that is no nonsense, and then have a more free level where risk and reward/punishment can impact big players without threatening the whole system of financial transactions at once.
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 2:14 am | #
And none of this is done without the examiner-in-charge's sign off. I predict the FDIC will face its own SEC horror show grilling before Congress at some point in the not too distant future probably when (1) the basic $40B fund runs out and (2) bank runs begin in earnest...Are you in England or what? I noticed your spelling of favorite..
It's just me, you, and 80 other computers with silent keyboards
Sorry, EHP, I was having a chuckle on Mish. His egotism is amazing sometimes. He knows more than the central bank management of Russia, India, Japan and Mexico.
.
back when i was trying to figure out how to make money in the world of wildly inflated real estate prices i did some research into small prefab with the idea of piecing together a minimalist community,rural retreat, or student housing. here are some links.
$5,000 Paper House is the World's Swankiest Hobo Pad
A Magna auto parts plant in Syracuse NY was just closed. 1,400 workers, UAW union. I think I saw it featured on upstate NY tv news just over a month ago as a source of hope This page is available to GlobePlus subscribers Part of the solution at New Process Gear involved a tentative agreement that called for wages to be chopped to $16 an hour by August from $20.16 now if certain financial goals were not met.
Workers agreed last year to cut their $29.11 an hour wages to $20.16.
If those financial goals were not met by August, the plant would be closed or a new two-tiered wage system put in effect, with so-called core workers paid $16 an hour and non-core workers $13.
From $29.11 to $16 per hour in just a few months... and now closed with any re-opening years away
Well, WB did it again. That's one sweet deal:
Swiss Re Raises $2.6 Billion -
"The Berkshire Hathaway investment will be in the form of a convertible instrument with a 12 percent coupon, Swiss Re said. Berkshire has the option to convert it into Swiss Re shares after three years, at a price of 25 francs per share."
Nice, 12%!!! plus conversion 3 years from now at the price bellow the current market price (which is rather low).
FFDIC,
Canadian actually, I can read/write both American and British english, often hopping between the 2.
I think the FDIC will get by easy, Sheila Bair is a well trained pet. Even if they get grilled, there will be other stories. I honestly don't blame the examiners -- you think they had the man power, let alone the backing of their boss in threatening a shutdown for a risk non-obvious in the individual transaction.
Broward Horne,
In a confederacy of crazies, it's always good to have different kinds of crazy so you can judge where you stand.
otishertz,
How did you post so many links? Haloscan will never let me post more than 4 at a time
Most of the established channels are VHF (Ch 2-13) that broadcast at lower frequencies than UHF (Ch 14-82). Lower frequencies are better at "getting around corners" than higher frequencies and as a result you typically need a better line-of-site for UHF channels.
A BIG change in digital is that most of the DTV signals are in the UHF band, even if you think you are watching a VHF station.
To find the actual digital channel that your current local analog TV channel does/will broadcast on, check out:
"Now, let me say this," Obama said. "In the past few days, I've heard criticisms of this plan that frankly echo the very same failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis in the first place -- the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems, that we can address this enormous crisis with half steps and piecemeal measures and tinkering around the edges, that we can ignore fundamental challenges, like the high cost of healthcare, and still expect our economy and our country to thrive.
"I reject these theories," he continued. "And, by the way, so did the American people when they went to the polls in November and voted resoundingly for change."
Obama also sought to sway public opinion in his favor through his newspaper column, reiterating many of the same points.
"In recent days, there have been misguided criticisms of this plan that echo the failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis -- the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems," Obama wrote.
That was a clear jab at Republicans, who have an alternative proposal to jump-start the economy that depends primarily on tax cuts.
Comrade De Chaos,
That's bad news for insurance competitiveness. There's literally 3 or 4 big reinsurers in the world (the insurance companies insurance company)
Swiss Re, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG
When insurance rates went up across the board circa 2005-2006, it was because their oligopoly had lost money on Katrina and so they ended up causing all kinds of premiums to be raised (which had nothing themselves to do with a hurricane)
So now the AIG is funded by the government, and Swiss Re is reliant on Berkshire for theirs. Great news
The sure way to acquire massive private monopoly wealth is to eliminate laissez faire and gain control of the economy and finance through compliant politicians and selected government & central banking regulation and deregulation?
Corporate socialism or 'modern capitalism' is market and finance control by using political influence?
Has the political influence of corporate socialism now become political control of the process?
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner needs to detail his intentions for the more than $200 billion of government stakes in U.S. banks to quell confusion in financial markets, according to a new oversight report.
Treasury needs to begin developing a framework for its overall investment strategy, Neil Barofsky, special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, said today in his first review of the fund. How long these securities should be held -- and when and under what circumstances they should be sold into the market -- are vitally important questions.
The report underscores concern at a lack of clarity over the governments exit strategy; shares of the banks that have received taxpayer funds fell more than four times the Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index in the past three months. The issue is set to grow as the Obama administration plans another round of capital injections into major financial companies.
CAN SCIENCE HELP SOLVE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS?
By Mike Brown, Stuart Kauffman, Zoe-Vonna Palmrose and Lee Smolin
The Reality Club: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Douglas Rushkoff, Larry Sanger, Mike Brown, George Dyson, Emanuel Derman, Michael Shermer, Paul Romer, Tor Nørretranders, Eric Weinstein, Brian Knutson
Taleb seems more like an ass who would argue against calculators in favour of the abacus on the grounds that his wilfully limited experience reinforces his original opinio
Across his essays I have seen him mostly look back to a time before computers and how options were priced back then in a systematic way, and use that as justification for computers being the problem. He just completely overlooks the ability to incorporate that previous methodology using modern tools.
What irritates me the most about him is that he assumes computers are incorrect probability distribution choice are the same thing. He is fully ignorant of Control Systems Theory, which is a more developed way of discussing and working with what he struggles to get out in media appearances.
It's well past being funny when he uses the analogy of flying an airplane with an economic model, while overlooking what systems those planes actually use to fly.
... computers and incorrect choice of probability distribution ....
He's like a kid in the 2nd grade, making fun of kids in the 1st grade.
He's had enough kurtosis for his hedge funds to do well, and since he has declined to confirm results -- it's logical bet that he's losing money during the one time when his 'fat tail strategy' should be paying off the most
The economic critics of the past would be astonished by how this dominance of system by the big players has evolved. How the controls were dismantled to allow exploding derivatives. How the worker/consumer is going to be crushed. How the assets were milked leaving hollow shells of companies and banks. How society has worked for the few in a new boom/bust cycle that will be winner take all.
The thing to do now is trace how it was done, how it was set up to Crash leaving a trail of losses and insolvencies.
This could be the Greatest Sting of all time. Better than the Great Depression Crash nand resulting impoverishment.
The key was to increase the investment risk ratios geometrically so that the losses were almost incalculable. To make this deflation so big that assets will collapse to pennies on the dollar.
And the question is what kind of economy could follow? Free market or police state command economy? Can there be something in-between...a mixed national socialist state with an underground economy?
Time Warner Inc said on Wednesday it received a request from Google last week seeking to exercise its "demand registration statement" on the AOL stake.
Time Warner Chief Financial Officer John Martin, speaking on a conference call with analysts, said Time Warner's options include taking AOL public, buying back the stake, or delaying a decision.
"We're reviewing what we received and we're evaluating our options," Martin said.
Time Warner sold the AOL stake to Google in a 2005 transaction that valued AOL at $20 billion. Last month Google wrote down the value of the stake, implying that AOL is now worth $5.5
...
Time Warner Chief Executive Jeffrey Bewkes said on the conference call that his company is considering all options, including spinning off AOL to shareholders.
the guest,
The Federal Reserve is private by charter, but is only at arms length. In practice it's not private because Congress has the authority to effectively take it over at will. All of their 'innovative' facilities like the commercial paper purchase fund that were not in response to an immediate crisis, should have been done through Congress -- it's just that no one even cares anymore
As for your discussion points on economic/market structure, it's more of a philosophical one. There is a continuum of possibilities, and you can selectively interpret/name them according to the chosen philosophy/jingoism
Oh my gawd, am I first?
yes, you are.
"The difference is the purchase of new homes does stimulate the economy by creating construction jobs..."
Apparently then, so does breaking windows. Some guy named Say dealt with this whole falacy several 100 years ago. Worth a read.
Nostrovia,
Suhweet. I see your cramdowns and raise you 15k FU's to exisiting homeowners!
This will just postpone the full correction in housing prices. But maybe it will help keep banks afloat until we come up with a real plan, who knows.
Does this tax credit have to be refunded after a few years?
Does this apply to those cheap-ass houses in Detroit? If so, I might be a buyer.
m, only 10% off? hahahaha.
Gotta move these unsaleable houses.
This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
.
Purchase of existing homes helps clear out the overhang.
Purchase of new homes encourages builders who should not be building at this time. The last thing we need is more housing inventory.
"But maybe it will help keep banks afloat until we come up with a real plan, who knows."
Hmmm, the nonsense continues. "We" who? You think you matter? Keeping zombie banks around to consume more capital, thus hollowing out the economy even more is a good idea, it it? For exactly how long? And how would anyone know such a threshhold?
But keep dreaming about your "we" coming up with a "real plan".
Nostrovia,
This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
Tripleplay | 02.04.09 - 10:24 pm | #
Yup. DEFINITELY sustainable.
My youngest sister and her husband purchased a brand new home last Spring. Almost worth it to sell at a loss and buy another one? Gotta bring up the calculator.
Does this apply to those cheap-ass houses in Detroit? If so, I might be a buyer.
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.04.09 - 10:23 pm | #
-----
The 1 USD homes, the 1k USD homes, or the 10k USD homes?
Honestly, paying 10k for a home there is probably still too high...
Woo, that just added 15k to the sale price of a home!
We're coming back baby!
does it have to be paid back? I heard the 7.5k had to be repaid. If that is the case they can stick it where the sun doesn't shine.
If I was in the market for a $150k house, I'd be all over it.
This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
.
Tripleplay | 02.04.09 - 10:24 pm
No good for Cali what with our Jumbos and 15K which is like a 2.5% or lower break.
Just how in the world with the gubmint afford to pay the tax refunds this will generate?
\tThis 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
Tripleplay | 02.04.09 - 10:24 pm | #
-----
Only if they allow NINJA paperwork again...
You need to have an income for a tax credit to work
If someone has a data file with income, and house prices by region, I would import it into matlab and output a map of the expected % impact
$15,000 x top maginal federal income tax rate / house price = meh
not going to make a difference until the inventory is gone, the new price floor will just be a little higher
150k home, in the San Francisco, hahahahahaha
I think you can get garage space for that
the 15k doesn't need to paid back, is for any principal residence, not just new homebuyers like the 7.5k was. so much more tax-credity than the first pass. It lasts a year. So basically, about 9 months from now, it will cause some buyers to move their purchases forward by a few months to get access to the credit. and when the credit expires, demand drops off again. woop-de-friggin do
The difference is that back in 75 there was a real need to build housing. Front end of Bommers were 29 yo then, only high interest rates were holding back the market, engineered to hold down inflation after wage-price controls came off. Now ANY new home building is simply mal investment.
If they restart the Ninja loans this might work.My guess is the consumer is broke , unemployed , and still won't be able to get a loan. Now if they offered it on refi's I'm in...
details, details...
The measure would give buyers a tax credit of 10 percent of the price of a primary residence purchased within the year, up to $15,000, and is designed to stabilize plummeting home prices that caused a wave of foreclosures and led to the near collapse of the financial system as Wall Street firms wrote down billions in losses on mortgage-backed assets.
So that will be a $0.10 tax credit for the $1 house in Detroit...
The existing $7500 credit has income limitations, it must be repaid over 15 years, and you must not have owned a home in 3 years. It's really an interest free loan. This may also initially sound better than it turns out to be.
At the rate we are going, I would just hold out for a better offer from the government.
150k home, in the San Francisco, hahahahahaha
I think you can get garage space for that
Comrade Lurker | 02.04.09 - 10:29 pm | #
Patience my boy, patience, you know it is a virtue.
Not for nothing, but to do this right they should have made it ten percent of any conforming loan in the subject market.
Not saying this is a good idea in any way, shape, or form, but if they thought it was a good idea, they should have put a little muscle into it. Just saying.
In OC, $15K is a rounding error.
Yancey Ward writes:
At the rate we are going, I would just hold out for a better offer from the government.
Yancey Ward | 02.04.09 - 10:33 pm | #
Now that's funny. Of course I was informed that I have the "stupidest handle in the blogosphere", and I found that funny too.
The whole day has been funny.
Oh yeah, this'll help with compounding resets on Option ARMs, pick a pays, existing neg ams, and resetting CC and auto loan debt.
Hoomama. The level of ambient stupidity just rose like Conjure's bondcrash clock.
C
May you live in interesting times.
I think you can get garage space for that
Comrade Lurker | 02.04.09 - 10:29 pm | #
THIS month.
Tax credits delay the inevitable.
Now this is interesting ...New Hampshire HCR 6 Status - Hearing in Committee Tomorrow
HCR6 Session Year 2009
Bill Text Title: Affirming States' Rights based on Jeffersonian principles.
G-Status: HOUSE
House Status: IN COMMITTEE
Senate Status:
Next/Last Comm: HOUSE STATE-FEDERAL RELATIONS AND VETERANS AFFAIRS
Next/Last Hearing: 02/05/2009 at 01:00 PM LOB 203
New Hampshire HCR 6 Text
Jesse's Café Américain
Yancey Ward,
"At the rate we are going, I would just hold out for a better offer from the government."
Hmmmm....be afraid what you wish for. They might start taking Elvis seriously, but use B52's instead of bulldozers.
Remember always, these schemes are attempts to keep the Banksters and banks solvent, not help the average person.
Nostrovia,
typical republican response....cut taxes or give tax credits. Worked really well over the last 25 years.
Yawn.......
Ciao
MS
So I live in a 150K townhome, next to my good friend next door, in a 150K townhome. We each do a FSBO to each other, move the furniture (wink, wink), and pocket the credit.
Great idea!
damn. the House decided to delay the roll-out of digital TV until June, after blocking it last week. Methinks that the $650M in the stimulus allocated to digital converter coupons had something to do with it.
At $40 per coupon, that comes out to 16.25M sets...
Probably not going to accomplish much, but one of the smaller parts of the overall package.
I'm more worried about the new "solution" to the banking problem and what the potential price tag on that will be...
Comrade Lurker writes:
Woo, that just added 15k to the sale price of a home!
Bingo! You are exactly right.
Rethinking my earlier post:
This tax credit idea is pretty retarded at any dollar amount.
Unless...
What if we gave the buyer a choice between a fat tax credit upfront ($50-100K) in exchange for giving up the capital gains exemption ($250/$500K married) when they sell?
I get it that the train has left the station and my question is totally hypothetical, but I am hoping that this revision makes my previous post (and by extension, me) look slightly less retarded.
Did it work?
Bond Girl writes:
Probably not going to accomplish much, but one of the smaller parts of the overall package.
That's the spirit.
mattdog writes:
In OC, $15K is a rounding error
lol
Anytime Abby Jo Cohen predicts the future S/P, I yawn.
yeah tax cuts caused this. why on earth do you want to send more money to the govt? they are TOTAL eff ups. you have got to be kidding. arguments for that aren't even vaguely tethered to reality. if lower + worse and higher + better then lets just raise it to 99%? 0% is a no go also, it just won't work. there is level which can work to promote growth, prosperity to the masses, security for the nation and emergencies, and needed social services, etc, etc.
if you want to complain about the structure, complexity, loopholiness, etc of the tax structure then we have common ground.
For those who still keep track after all the clocks melted:
From FT:
The Treasury said it would sell $67bn (£46bn) in new securities next week, the largest ever quarterly refunding, beating the last peak in August 2003. It may also start monthly sales of all its benchmark Treasury securities.
At the end of February, the Treasury will start selling seven-year notes every month for the first time since the issue was discontinued in 1993. Sales of 30-year bonds will double to eight times a year and the Treasury will say in May whether the bond will be sold every month.
For Barack Obamas administration, the step-up in borrowing costs comes as it is fighting to secure an $800bn-plus fiscal stimulus, and is likely to need many hundreds of billions more to fund a banking sector clean-up.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee expressed concern on Wednesday over the sharp jump in net borrowing needs which market analysts estimate could reach $1,500bn to $2,500bn for the 2009 financial year.
Traders are particularly concerned about the appetite for Treasuries among foreign investors, who hold more than half the outstanding $5,500bn in Treasury debt.
In recent years, demand for US government debt has been stoked by developing countries running huge trade surpluses with the US and recycling dollars by buying Treasuries. However, many are facing growing pressure to stimulate their own economies and are seeing their current account surpluses decline as global demand diminishes.
The 30yr yield increased from 2.83 on Jan 02 to 3.65 on Feb 4 - that is almost +30%
The tax break for homebuyers, which the Senate approved by voice vote without opposition, was the second amendment in two days aimed at encouraging consumers to make major purchases.
Wait, what was GWB's economic mistake post 9/11?
That's the spirit.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 10:48 pm | #
Yeah, I know... A lot of small things make a very big thing.
Basel - taking a step back or two, why do we need HDTV? Will it promote general welfare in excess of the cost of transition? How might one know?
I'm not baiting, but as someone who no longer watches tv, I'm just wondering why.
C
Bond Girl,
"I'm more worried about the new "solution" to the banking problem and what the potential price tag on that will be..."
Don't worry. Tucked away in the bill Congang has legislated that infinity is an actual number, and they will spend no more than that.
Nostrovia,
I don't see how this will help much, if at all.
Isn't this just trying to keep some air in the bubble?
Typical neCON crap! Tax cuts...what a waste...and yes the one from last year was a loan, this one is not
What about the proposal to allow int and taxes on NEW CARS to be deductible? More republican tax crap!
Yeah, I know... A lot of small things make a very big thing.
I dunno...a million times zero is still zero.
Somewhere, Angelo Mozillo just blew his kazoo.
Bond Girl writes:
I'm more worried about the new "solution" to the banking problem and what the potential price tag on that will be...
I am worried there will be just tough talk but no solutions until everybody stops caring anymore
So the American taxpayer will be subsidizing the realtor's commission. I suppse that may save a few realtor jobs.
A lot of expenditures, not a lot to show for it. Way to go, guys. Kill my attempt at optimism. (Optimism being that the government will waste slightly less of my hard-earned money.)
hilarious, if everyone has $15k that isn't theirs then guess how much housing prices will probably get bid up beyond a natural market clearing price.....about $15k. and to raise the money for the $15k give away they have to raise it...and raise it/take it away from someone that would have spent the $15k
peter, meet paul.
crispy-
I especially like the irony regarding the deductions on autos. (which is designed to put more of them on the roads) while not backing the building or repair of said roads.
Ciao
MS
15k housing credit is a nothingburger.
roll back depreciation to pre 86 levels.....sell a condo to your kids.
C,
"Basel - taking a step back or two, why do we need HDTV? Will it promote general welfare in excess of the cost of transition? How might one know?
I'm not baiting, but as someone who no longer watches tv, I'm just wondering why."
Nostrovia,
Counterpointer-
it's just a more advanced way of digging holes and filling them back up.
politically, the conversion was a favor to the telecommunications industry; the idea was that once people realized how crappy broadcast digital was, they would shift to cable/satellite.
problem was that the depression got in the way, and the subscription increases never materialized...
Counterpointer:
i think they HDTV switch frees up valuable broadcast spectrum for critical response, emergency, police, fire, etc communications. it's not the only reason but it's a benefit.
Misean's point is also correct. The vacated spectrum space is to be split between advanced cellphone technology and public law enforcement.
c&c,
"What about the proposal to allow int and taxes on NEW CARS to be deductible?"
Why pay the Banksters twice?
MS,
Just a thought, but fuel taxes pay for road construction, no? (Yes, it's a funding shift...)
Nostrovia,
What about the proposal to allow int and taxes on NEW CARS to be deductible? More republican tax crap!
crispy&cole | 02.04.09 - 10:51 pm | #
Yep, if I'm unemployed or about to be, that's the first thing I'll want to do - pile on more debt.
put a bullet in the head of the Deaf Asian.
The Chinese sure have a way of upstaging us.
Sany Heavy Industry Co., Chinas biggest supplier of concrete-making equipment, plans to cut its chairmans annual salary to 15 cents and slash the pay of board members by as much as 90 percent because of the financial crisis....
The board wont consider pay cuts for employees below mid- level management, the statement said.
scarey idnt it?
Corporal Second Half Recovery is AWOL.
misean-
well they are supposed to but you live in Ca. too.. Seen much evidence of that on the scale it's collected?
I haven't in my lifetime either....
Ciao
MS
I'm gettin' out there and startin' me a biddin' war. Raaht quick.
remember.... Bill Gross demands asset inflation....because it's the only way thorough all of this.
and what he wants....we get.
Ciao
MS
I don't know. 15k would move me, the DH, the cat, and all our stuff from Oregon to New Hampshire-- less in taxes, lower housing costs. Or, I'd lower the sales price of the Oregon house by 15k to move it a little faster. I can see the appeal, even if it is effed up in the macro sense.
MS,
"Seen much evidence of that on the scale it's collected?"
Well the remodel of the freeways in The OC and IE were enormously pricey little vanity projects (I can't recall where the MTA got it's money for the hole...erm...subway from Pasadena to Union Station). Value from the money...no...but given the agency spending the money, I'm surprised it was even somewhat spent on reducing transaction costs.
Nostrovia,
Misean,
I hadn't thought of that, but, yeah, inventory destruction might come first.
Tripleplay writes:"This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish."
Not to be contrary, but don't you still have to qualify for a loan? Last I heard, it's getting harder and harder to qualify. It's hard to blow a bubble when the only people getting credit are those that don't need it! (And at least in the more "desirable" areas of California, the prices still haven't retreated to match median incomes...although we are getting there).
(Now if they start relaxing loan guidelines...whoa boy...)
1.2mm homes if the $18.5B is right. That ought to get some peeps off the sofa. It'll make a dent.
I'm more worried about the new "solution" to the banking problem and what the potential price tag on that will be...
From what I understand, a major proposal making its way through the Capitol is for the US government to guarantee all modified mortgages...
the gov thinks it will solve housing as well as liquidity.
Point taken......there is evidence however most of it is useless. I'm so glad that the 15/91 interchange they spent untold billions ( the entire process) on goes from four lanes down to one in the space of about 300 yards. It actually makes traffic worse then it was previously.
Ciao
MS
BG: "A lot of expenditures, not a lot to show for it. "
Politics often results in "buck for the bang", and not the other way around.
Hey, that sounds vaguely dirty...
Consequences - This will get the banks to kick the deadbeats out in a hurry, so the homes can be in the mix right away. Inventory UP!
The new guidelines cap the pay of all top executives at $500,000 a year for any company that receives exceptional assistance from taxpayers. The cap needs to be considered by any company that takes money from the government from this point on, but it isnt binding unless the situation is extraordinary. Treasury used AIG and the Bank of America and Citigroup transactions under the Targeted Investment Program as examples.
talk about all bark and no bite... nothingburger
wtf? let's give more unqualifieds reasons to "go for it"
No offense, but there just isn't that much to say about $15k tax credits for home purchases. So, OT, did anyone read Denninger's piece about declining demand deposit balances? Is the guy missing something/off base with his post?
150k houses in the bubbly areas are for the credit challenged. subprime redux.
"The difference is the purchase of new homes does stimulate the economy by creating construction jobs - the purchase of existing homes does not."
Agreed, but the loss of value of an unoccupied home would be great. Most people move to an upgrade of their former home, I presume.
Yancey Ward,
"At the rate we are going, I would just hold out for a better offer from the government."
Hmmmm....be afraid what you wish for. They might start taking Elvis seriously, but use B52's instead of bulldozers.
Remember always, these schemes are attempts to keep the Banksters and banks solvent, not help the average person.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 02.04.09 - 10:39 pm | #
If their modus operandi is to prop up house prices they better start supporting people who have mortgage payments and no job, those with mortgage payments they can't afford and a job and those without any savings, no mortgage and no job. Because those three groups will crush you're $15K tax credit.
Don't you see Mr. Government, if you burden the people with too much debt, tax them beyond what their incomes supports and implore them to consume, you're going to end up with empty pockets filled with idle hands grasping at lint.
MS writes - YES!! LOL! Buy cars, but god dam it! We will not build any roads with tax dollars...can we give a tax cut to someone to build a road.LOL!!!
oohboy, I can't discuss DTV broadcasts without my blood getting to a boil. It's not a handout to corporations, it's not swindling people of their free TV, it's simple math. Analog broadcasts waste too much bandwidth (like having 100 million 'free' parking spaces in San Francisco while everyone else with a postage stamp sized lot pays all the property taxes). The signal isn't worse, either you are outside their designed coverage or you are not using the right type of antenna. They could broadcast at higher power, or consume more bandwidth with for extra error correction codes -- or they could just ignore people demanding everyone else pays for their "free tv". It's not like the switchover was a big surprise, and most areas are getting more channels, not less.
It's a simple matter, but people are too damned emotional about their picture stories.
On-topic:
If someone was in the top tax bracket, would it not make sense now to play musical houses and purchase a new primary residence each year for the $15,000 tax credit. You could get wealthy tax credit clubs surfacing where they exchange ownership and stay in their own house
That's the biggest impact I see, no way is the tax credit enough today to bring current prices within range of a foreseeable bottom
Agreed, but the loss of value of an unoccupied home would be great. Most people move to an upgrade of their former home, I presume.
GS Rome
.
"Downsizing" is the new upgrade. The Boomers started doing that a couple of years ago, and it's accelerating as the peak Boomers begin to retire. Anybody who sold the big house in 2006 and rents is sitting pretty on a pile of cash right now.
Excellent move by the Senate! (snark) So I'll just dump my underwater place on the bank, buy a new place, collect a $15K tax credit to cover the moving expenses, and reset my property taxes and mortage at a much lower level!
The purchase of existing homes 'definetly' adds to the economy by contributing to workers incomes such as; loan officers, real estate agents, escrow officers, home inspectors, underwriters, loan processors, appraisers, temps, title companies, home improvement companies, furnishing co's, painters, carpet installers, property managers, etc!
republicans have caused my taxes to be to low. in protest, i plan on paying extra this year by 5-10% by not taking some deductions. Who's with me?
Hmm... well...
(1) They still have to coome up with the downpayment in the first place. How many have that 10-20% in their bank account in the US, the land of the negative savings rate until recently?
(2) They still have to make the payments and prices are still not in proportion to income in so very very very many places.
(3) And as a collary to (2), they have to have the expectation that they will not lose their job...
And it is true that house prices will go up. Lower the interest rate and the realtor still focuses solely on the monthly payment and ignores the price and what hapens when you try to sell after interest rates have gone back up as they will. Hand out $15,000 in fre money and you will see sale contracts written with a balloon payment due right after the tax credit puts cash in the buyer's pocket -- and the price will stay up.
Not a solution.
If someone was in the top tax bracket, would it not make sense now to play musical houses and purchase a new primary residence each year for the $15,000 tax credit. You could get wealthy tax credit clubs surfacing where they exchange ownership and stay in their own house
That's the biggest impact I see, no way is the tax credit enough today to bring current prices within range of a foreseeable bottom
EvilHenryPaulson
.
I guess I can imagine a club like that, but someone's going to squeal like a pig, sooner or later, and break the syndicate.
If you did it through the system, the in-and-out costs with realtors, inspections, etc. are non-trivial. And people with cash usually have lots of stuff, plus they want to keep their kids in the 'best' schools. So the PITA factor makes yearly moves unlikely, just for 15k, IMO. You used to get more than that as a moving allowance, in some circles.
ARW - In 2000 the national debt was 5 trillion...in 2008, after mostly CONservative control (6 of the 8 years) we have a national debt of 11 trillion...
Republican policies = failure!
The question is simple:
The government is taking actions to ensure the continued American standard of living?
The government is taking actions to ensure the end of the American dream?
Which do you think and why describes how you see the future of this country.
EHP,
"It's not a handout to corporations,"
No? The wireless companies paid how much for those bands? (pssst...they wouldn't have spent $x on lobbying [bribing] congang members if the value/cost of purchasing said spectrum, $y < $x).
Nostrovia,
Ok, so here's a nice O/T confusing picture. Bloomie says Japan stocks slide but shippers gain, esp on iron ore demand, which apparently is reflected in Dryships coming back up after huge crash.
Japan Stocks Slump on Earnings Concern; Shippers Jump on Rates - Bloomberg.com
Pacificshipper says breakbulk cargo rates are soaring because ships have been idled,
Pacific Shipper Online -- Need a ship? It’ll cost you
Soo, is demand driving the story, or collapse of supply? If it's the latter then we're still skrood, because demand for primary inputs is down. If the former, then it's because of recovering confidence that the ore gets turned into something useful that end-demand consumers will buy.
Hmmm.
C
Hey guys,
I think we're approaching this all wrong. $15,000 primary residence tax credit prints up real nice on banners and rolls off the voice artists' tongue during re-election advertisements.
It's politics
[still curious about the idea of buying a new house each year to collect tax credits on high income folks]
why is there no discussion about the Obama salary cap plan... it's a friggin' band aid,
only to be used for the Uber-Beggars! doesn't say squat that I can tell about Sr VPs or MDs at TARPed banks...
here's a vid mash-up I did over my displeasure with tax cheats Geithner and Daschle...
YouTube - Tax Cheats Geithner & Daschle Hip Hop to Presidential Stimulus
Summers Warns Deflation Is ‘Real Risk’ for Economy (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
From head honcho Larry Summers:
Policy makers are readying an overhaul of the Treasurys financial-bailout program, which may come early next week, and a strategy to stem record mortgage foreclosures.
The focus of the financial recovery plan will be on maintaining the overall flow of credit in the economy, Summers said. It will include government support for the credit markets and capital infusions into major financial institutions.
More capital injections into MAJOR financial institutions. I'm not seeing the N-word between the lines.
c&c, i see it as a spending problem. but, hey, let's nationalize health care, do the tarp, $1T stmulus and go for broke.
republicans suck at the tit as much as anyone. no argument from me.
ARW - then we are in agreement...I hate both parties and they could care less about 99% of us!
Can I sell my home to myself, and just pocket the credit? Maybe as a re-finance, perhaps? No need for it to be complex, Washington can just send cash.
This is the kind of home equity extraction a guy could get behind!
Comrade Misean is Dope,
Wireless auctions bring in good money. You could argue better auctions could be organized (Canada's recent wireless auctions set the new standard in $/Hz, but that could be negative as that means service providers have to charge a higher rate to recoup license fees)
The switch from analog to digital itself has nothing to do with how low or high the government licenses spectrum at. If taxes were better connected to spending, you would appreciate the indirect (Ricardian) tax savings.
Counterpointer
Perhaps it is my phenomenon of finding returns by pressuring consumer surplus arriving a few months early?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 11:17 pm |
You are the AI that gained sentience from the mix of cloud computing and the reddoom virus. Admit it and please don't short my internet access.
What aren't you conversant in?
The measure would give buyers a tax credit of 10 percent of the price of a primary residence purchased within the year, up to $15,000 ...
But no credits for those of us who boosted the market by making a purchase within the last 3 years?
Our purchase in the now-cratered IE in July '06 has cost us half the 6 figure equity we built up over the previous 16 years, which at our 60 plus age, can never be recovered in even the most optimistic recovery fantasy.
We're done with these a**holes, will become "stay-ins", adding the non-paid P&I and RE taxes to our 6 figure savings, walk away in a year (thanks Sen Dodd for the additional 3 months national foreclosure moratorium) and buy a SFR for cash, living mortgage free while our fico recovers, and hoping millions of other underwater boiling mortgage frogs will do the same.
Very hard to believe congress has at once relieved the banks and brokers of their bad mortgage collateralized assets, while at the same time bullying the hopelessly underwater mortgagors to continue amortizing mortgages 2-3-4 times the still-declining value of the depreciated assets.
Without naming names or being political, we are disappointed at the 'manufacturing of consent' by congress and the msm, and the underwhelming responce of the otherwise alert blogs, to the essence of congress continuing to cater to the demands of their corrupt corporate sponsors, at the expense of the hapless taxpayer, in times of worldwide credit, commerce and wage collapse.
Boy, are we steamed tonight.
[still curious about the idea of buying a new house each year to collect tax credits on high income folks]
EvilHenryPaulson
.
What are we talking about in terms of 'high income?' To me, anybody around 100k - 200k probably isn't going to move every year, because of PITA factor noted above. Even when I was flipping houses (and living in them) I couldn't stand to move every year. That's 2 24-foot Ryder trucks, and then some. And I don't have kids.
The bracket that might go for this is a lower income type, maybe 50k - 100k, younger, with far less stuff. Like a doctor in residency. Actually, the more I think about this, it could work for a very young near-nomad minimalist type with good income and no relationships. Like a daytrader. Hey boys, this one's for you!
scone:
I think EHP is talking about flipping houses in title only. Basically, the housing version of what many people do with cars; re-titling them with intra-family sales to take advantage of lower property taxes.
Just wait, new down payment asistance program...gov't akes it from an 4/15 event to an on dman applications..lenders front the 10% then help you fill out the paerwork for thecredit.
EHP,
"The switch from analog to digital itself has nothing to do with how low or high the government licenses spectrum at."
Nope, it has to do, as I stated earlier with the gov'ts claim of ownership to begin with.
"If taxes were better connected to spending,"
If ponies pooped skittles....
"you would appreciate the indirect (Ricardian) tax savings."
IIRC correctly Ricardo rejected his equivalence theory....
Nostrovia,
!!!!!!!!TONIGHT ONLY!!!!!!!!
******CONJURE'S CORNER******
DEFLATION FOR FUN AND PROFIT
For your viewing pleasure, please consider the following graph of the CPI (NSA) from 1913 to present:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCNS&s[1][transformation]=pch
Note the approximate -2% change in November, which just happens to coincide with a -2.1% output gap in 2008:Q3.
Note also that, the last time such a difference occurred, it was during the depths of the so-called Great Depression.
Consider the following: by the end of 2009:Q4, the output gap will probably be at least -5.0% given a "no growth" scenario.
Conjure Quiz: What will be the change in the CPI?
Bonus Points: How does that compare to the so-called "Great" Depression?
More Bonus Points: If CBO is right (See Krugman link) and the output gap does average -6.8%, what does that say about changes in the CPI?
Hint: See Krugman's quick and dirty graph of changes in inflation versus output gap.
Economics and Politics - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
MORAL: Although it isn't rocket science, there is some science involved. So, don't bitch about the forecasts unless you know something of what you're talking about.
"Have a nice day."
peAk - I think you are taking the best path, stay as long as you can...then when they come to evict you, you can probably work them one final time for 2-3k, by asking them for "cash for keys"!!
amon,
I do have my flaws and weaknesses, but acquiring and processing new information is something I'm naturally drawn to. Not to mention informed people here give me an easy time when it comes to mistakes so I come off looking better than I should.
buy a SFR for cash, living mortgage free while our fico recovers
If you buy the house for cash, you don't need a credit score.
conjure sighting!!!
Here is another attempt at the St Louis Fed link:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCNS&s[1][transformation]=pch
This 15K credit coupled with gov mandated 4% interest rate will be bubblishish.
I don't think so. Specific bubbles are once-in-a-lifetime. You can't recreate the conditions of the tech bubble, for example, and suddenly find yourself back in the late 90s. This bubble is gone. If people want an unsustainable thing to invest in, it will have to be somewhere else.
Aw, to hell with the damned link. You're all grownups here. It's the CPIAUCNS series.
Per Talbot prices going back to 1997 LEVELS:
U.S. Housing Slump Has Just Begun,
Yes we can!
WASHINGTON -- The White House's nominee for Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon Panetta, has earned more than $700,000 in speaking and consulting fees since the beginning of 2008, with some of the payments coming from troubled financial firms and from a firm that invests in contractors for federal national security agencies, according to financial disclosures released Wednesday.
Mr. Panetta received $56,000 from Merrill Lynch & Co. for two speeches and $28,000 for a speech for Wachovia Corp., according to disclosures released ahead of Thursday's scheduled Senate hearing on Mr. Panetta's nomination.
Both Merrill and Wachovia reported big losses last year and were acquired by larger firms. The Wachovia honorarium was dated Oct. 30, and the last Merrill Lynch honorarium was dated Oct. 11, according to disclosure forms filed by Mr. Panetta in connection with his nomination. At the time, Bank of America had agreed to a rescue of Merrill Lynch; Wachovia had agreed to be acquired by Wells Fargo & Co.
I think EHP is talking about flipping houses in title only. Basically, the housing version of what many people do with cars; re-titling them with intra-family sales to take advantage of lower property taxes.
pro forma stimulus
.
I know, that's why I said sooner or later someone would squeal and bust the syndicate. People are nasty that way, and a lot of people are really, really pissed off about this whole housing debacle. Look at peAk, he's ready to tear someone a new asshole, and I don't blame him.
I hear ya mp..however deflation it may be because of the factors that are obviously creating it. One thing that all of it doesn't account for is the system's need and ability to "create".
That's why I am in the inflation camp....no other reason. I couldn't agree more with your rationale but the system has no other place, vehicle to achieve yield. The oil game of last year was the silent hint to all.
Ciao
MS
Per Talbot - "His answer: I dont think so, he says. If Im right, then this housing decline has only just begun. "
Pacificshipper says breakbulk cargo rates are soaring because ships have been idled,
http://www.pacificshipper.com/ ne...ltype=breakbulk
Counterpointer | 02.04.09 - 11:26 pm | #
More confusing is that this article is dated 2008. Hmmm... ?
Is the $15k credit designed to make people who are currently renting stop renting and buy a house? That will push down rents further. If rents are down, fewer people will buy rental property. It seems to me no net change. You just shift some people from renting to owning, but you've still got the huge underlying problem of 2 million more housing units than families.
Most people who will buy a home under this plan already rent a home. The plan only helps (i.e. help = making housing expensive) to the extent that people who are living with family decide to buy a house to get the credit.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Houston - Hempstead Lawrence Marshall car dealership closes
Ray Childress, Lawrence Marshalls CEO, owner and former football star, was the face of the company and known for the slogan We clobber big city prices.
Conjure!
How are the dog balls chewing, old buddy? We all miss you!
Con Dao:
Yes, the executive compensation cap is definitely a nothingburger. Doesn't go down the chain far enough. Only applies to future recipients (e.g. JPM/WFC) of "exceptional" rescues. Anyways, I'm sure Wall Street will concoct a Daschlesque "strategic adviser" loophole if push came to shove.
Saw your youtube stuff. Not a big fan of Summers either, i see...
MS,
how then to account for credit and wealth destruction. It'll take a while to inflate it all back, no?
Erm, I'm still none the wiser. I can see the political economy of moving to HDTV as a supply side gig, but with the consumer tapped out and heading for further pain, where's the household balance sheet equation that says getting sharper focus on the teevee is as - or more - important than my rising credit costs, schooling, health care, whatever...?
It's these kinds of questions that I get certain answers to which make me think, as a furriner, I really don't understand this place. Love it to bits, but understand it, no.
Let me boil it down:
- the US is facing the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression
- the US is pursuing an expensive refinement of an existing technology, to extremely marginal welfare impacts.
Help me out here?
C
here's a 19 second vid on Geithner/Daschle tax cheats
YouTube - w1ho&feature=channel_page
and also on a fake news clip about Dr Larry Summers aka Smalley Biggs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0ponhnk8D0
It's not like the switchover was a big surprise, and most areas are getting more channels, not less.
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 11:17 pm | #
Here in Marin County the answer is less channels.
I tried the converter box last month and got zero channels.
I went to Radio Shack to buy an aerial. The clerk warned me to save all the packaging stuff for when I returned it. I asked why she warned me. She said that most of southern Marin was having HDTV reception problems and that a new aerial would not help. If the new aerial did help, then keep it; otherwise, return it to the store.
The new aerial did not work, so I gave it and the converter box to my assistant who lives in San Francisco. Her second TV is now HD.
Aw, to hell with the damned link. You're all grownups here. It's the CPIAUCNS series.
mp | 02.04.09 - 11:42 pm | #
----
CR Companion to the rescue: Link
Counterpointer- "the US is facing the biggest economic collapse since the Great Depression"
What you just wrote has become a cliche.
Come on, you can say it..
This is a D-d-d-e--p
\tAw, to hell with the damned link. You're all grownups here. It's the CPIAUCNS series.
mp | 02.04.09 - 11:42 pm | #
I'm just barely grownup. Maybe try tinyurl.com : you insert the link, and it hands you back something manageable.
!!!!!!!!TONIGHT ONLY!!!!!!!!
******CONJURE'S CORNER******
mp | 02.04.09 - 11:37 pm | #
mp, so GREAT to see you back arond tonight. please stop by more often.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
If you want to debate ownership, well I was under the impression that the government already granted the licenses to the analog stations. You might as well debate a municipal government's right to engage in land use planning/zoning.
It's a limited resource that completely fails without definitive allocation and standards.
You seem to be simultaneously arguing no government involvement, and the right to standardized and allocated spectrum for your free tv but with fewer channels and a noisier/distorted signal.
From a technical angle, relicensing the spectrum is a no brainer. As specious as some of the political arguments appear to be, I would like to stay out of that end of things.
Ricardo never accounted for the flexibility of credit and expectations. Wealth is a bounded system, and without alchemy the identity holds (but it's not very useful when such distortionary and loosely governed factors can take over for so long. It's about as useful as saying what evaporates into clouds will come down as precipitation. You need the when, where, how)
[still curious about the idea of buying a new house each year to collect tax credits on high income folks]
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.04.09 - 11:26 pm | #
How is this tax credit going to be treated under AMT?
\tAw, to hell with the damned link. You're all grownups here. It's the CPIAUCNS series.
mp | 02.04.09 - 11:42 pm | #
mp,
tinyurl is your friend.
http://tinyurl.com/ctemmy
arw-
I'm talking about commodity inflation. I can't account for the wealth and credit destruction....and the system can't either. But they have a need to achieve returns....I can think of no better place to get it then to inflate that portion of the market.
It makes absolutely no sense, which is why I agree with the mp (and many others) on deflation. It just doesn't make any provision for what can be created for no other reason than to "create".
Ciao
MS
SEC Stonewalls at Senate Hearings on Madoff (and Congressional Fireworks!) « naked capitalism
Jesus, watch the videos. How can these professionals with the trust of the public come forth before congress and testify so ineptly.
The second video is a thing of beauty.
CR Companion to the rescue
yagij | 02.04.09 - 11:50 pm | #
-----
Or not. New Link.
The new aerial did not work
If you can get it up above the other houses and trees and run twin-lead or coaxial cable down to your receiver (converter box), you'll get better results. It's best to have a mast, but you could just set the antenna on the chimney and get good results.
and also on a fake news clip about Dr Larry Summers aka Smalley Biggs
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.? v=i0ponhnk8D0&feature=channel_page
Duke of Con Dao ur links are bad
"I'm talking about commodity inflation. I can't account for the wealth and credit destruction....and the system can't either. But they have a need to achieve returns....I can think of no better place to get it then to inflate that portion of the market.
It makes absolutely no sense, which is why I agree with the mp (and many others) on deflation. It just doesn't make any provision for what can be created for no other reason than to "create"."
The more hedge funds blown out of the water the harder it will be to manipulate commodities and other markets on a large scale.
Each down-cycle has been blowing up more and more hedge funds. This and coming regulation should somewhat negate their ability going forward to blowup the next bubble market.
What you just wrote has become a cliche.
Come on, you can say it..
mp | 02.04.09 - 11:50 pm | #
-----
No matter how to play with the numbers, we apparently are down low enough that only GD v.1.0 can match it and only the Depression of 1921 beats it.
Good stuff.
re: MP and the Krugman article
And, yes, I'm trolling a bit here:
From Krugman's article, it appears that all we have to do to avoid the deflation trap is pass Obama's stimulus plan. Am I being too cynical, here?
probably shouldn't tell Counterpointer about the $6B that's allocated for rural broadbank access. =)
Hey, mp, welcome and thanks! Another thing that link shows, is the relative frequency of recessions before about 1940. We've had fewer of them since WWII, and they've been milder, except for this one. Maybe we're reverting to some sort of norm. In any case, it may be adding to the psychological shock, especially since there are so many young people who have never experienced anything like this before.
Typical Washington...This guy is still living in 1974. What worked then has No chance today. I hate to admit this doofus is MY representative. I have gone to his office and tried to talk sense to his staff and got the usual...thanks for playing..."next". What good is a tax credit when UNEMPLOYED...Can't buy w/o a friggin' JOB! Blew a lot of hot air but solved nothing....Mission Accomplished!
RockyR- "Am I being too cynical, here?"
The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns.
This is no sure thing.
why am I so pissed about those bunch of tax cheats?
during the last recession in NYC in 1991 I was working only part-time (tough times) and incorrectly anticipated that my income would be X dollars and took a few extra withholding
allowances because I needed the money then not in April 1992... so I ended up underpaying the IRS by 1,100 dollars... by '96 they had a lien against a crap rental property of which I owned 30% of and nearly were able to put it up for auction...
my tax rebate was grabbed by them in '97... the final bill with penalties upon penalties was a bit over 6,200 I believe...
and then I see what penalties these jackasses had to pay nad it's no where close to the Draconian amount I had to pay....
the difference was and is I could not afford a high priced tax attorney to negotiate away many of the penalties...
NorkaWest,
Apparently the digital broadcasts don't go up to full power until the analog is taken offline.
The sooner the transition happens, the better.
Digital is with Frequency modulation schemes (just like FM vs AM). This makes it more susceptible to physical interference (multi-path propagation, attenuation from rain , ...) but as long as the signal can make it there you should get crystal clear reception. That digital nature of the beast is that you either get it perfect, or you don't get anything useful at all, with only a narrow band of failure where the ECC covers over the errors.
If you're putting the antenna outside or something, and have a long cable between the two you need to make sure it's not being attenuated into the noise floor. A cheap amp would make that right as rai
I wonder how many hours the builder and realtor lobbies worked the Senate to get this in the bill?
Also, where does this put CR's red line on Dec 31, 2009?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SYHHIcCGUWI/AAAAAAAAEaQ/G1VHww5K4Sw/s1600/NHADec2008.jpg
From Krugman's article, it appears that all we have to do to avoid the deflation trap is pass Obama's stimulus plan. Am I being too cynical, here?
RockyR | 02.04.09 - 11:57 pm | #
-----
Krugman: "...in the absence of a policy action the average output gap will average 6.8 percent over the next two years. Do the math: if anything like the historical relationship between output and inflation holds, we're looking at major deflation."
You aren't being too cynical. The CBO has stated the above scenario, and Krugman is riding that line to legitimately peddle his latest ware(s). For him, it is the stimulus plan that will make or break the "major deflation", and for me, the stimulus plan seems like it is making Pelosi & Obama are vying for D.C. Dominance at the moment.
Stimulus would be a "policy action" that could help us all out, but what kind of Swamp Thang we actually get is where your cynisim is rooted...
RockyR
Krugman's writings have consistently said that the stimulus round being discussed is not enough to sustain demand, and that the greater danger is in undershooting (too small) rather than overshooting.
I would add that avoiding the deflation trap and depression is impossible and has been impossible for quite a while now, possibly the past couple of years.
All the options are about how to best cope with it as a society - i.e., cushion the blow for those most vulnerable and reposition for a long and slow recovery. There is no cure. Only better and worse ways to survive, and ways to do more serious damage.
That digital nature of the beast is that you either get it perfect, or you don't get anything useful at all, with only a narrow band of failure where the ECC covers over the errors.
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 12:00 am | #
When I last looked, there were several bands of S/N quality reception. I never dug thru the final ATV standard. What happened?
crispy&cole writes:
peAk - I think you are taking the best path, stay as long as you can...then when they come to evict you, you can probably work them one final time for 2-3k, by asking them for "cash for keys"!!
crispy&cole | 02.04.09 - 11:38 pm | #
We'll be gone before that, and I'll offer the renter some fair share of the banks offer.
Counterpointer,
The digital broadcast switch doesn't mean you need to buy a new TV, an old clunker from 1980 will do just as well as a newer one. The conversion boxes just take in a digital signal and output the same old analog signal the TVs have been consuming for decades.
The upside is a longer term thing where mobile internet service should become faster, more widespread, and cheaper. It won't be long before cell phone companies end up charging by the amount of data (text messages + emails costing zilch)
JP,
I would probably know if it affected me directly. I am jealous that the US is further ahead in reducing freeing up bandwidth for more productive uses (who here wouldn't want a cheaper cell phone bill for starters)
as Merrill's losses were soaring, BofA Chief Executive Ken Lewis told U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke he was having second thoughts, the paper said, according to people close to Lewis.
But Paulson and Bernanke on Dec. 17 "forcefully urged Mr. Lewis not to walk away," the paper reported. They warned Lewis that if the deal collapsed, Merrill could be doomed and that their confidence in Bank of America would be "undercut."
Days later, Bernanke told Lewis Bank of America had no grounds to walk away, the Journal reported, citing people who heard the remarks. Another Federal Reserve official warned that if Lewis did walk away and later needed more government money, regulators might consider ousting executives and directors, people close to the bank say.
US pushed Bank of America to complete Merrill buy-WSJ
| Reuters
Play ball.
The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns.
This is no sure thing.
mp | 02.05.09 - 12:00 am | #
I just have a very hard time believing that a stimulus package of Keynesian redistribution that relies on additional federal borrowing (threatening higher resultant interest rates) will save the system from deflationary collapse. Just my $.02.
I just have a very hard time believing that a stimulus package of Keynesian redistribution that relies on additional federal borrowing (threatening higher resultant interest rates) will save the system from deflationary collapse.
But because of the Republican changes, we'll never know, will we?
NorkaWest
Good point on the AMT and tax credits.
I would have hoped they used this time to strike the AMT and simplified the tax structure -- it's not like their spending plans are sensitive to revenues right now. Should have stricken the payroll tax while they were at it.
But since the AMT was untouched, it's probably going to be there for a long time.
RockyR
In a deflationary collapse there won't be significantly higher interest rates (significant not to someone who makes a bad bet on appreciation of T bonds, but significant in terms of borrowing costs).
The potential problem of hyper-inflation will be faced only when the deflationary spiral is halted. That sounds like it takes hyper-inflation lightly, but that is not the case. It is a judgement of relative risk: which is more dangerous: deflationary collapse or hyper-inflation? Krugman and many others say strong and prolonged deflation is the greater danger and harder to treat.
Anonymous- "But because of the Republican changes, we'll never know, will we?"
And that is "Conjure's Conundrum."
This really, really ticks me off as a renter. Just when I think we are going to turn the corner on rents. I'm about to fold and just buy in.
A small quibble with MP:
He writes:
"The problem with Obama's plan is that it was aborted before takeoff. There is a lot of stuff with low multipliers in it, the amount has been knocked down in order to accomodate tax cuts for Republicsns."
I would change aborted before takeoff to say that it just hasn't taken off yet.
We're inside of a process. The proposal is being changed everyday - and I agree that the changes have on balance been in the wrong direction. But the process isn't over, and the way things are going may yet give Obama a chance to put his own stamp on much more deeply. We'll see. I expect a vigorous push back to start imminently
Comrade Misean is Dope,
A suitable analogy for regulating radio bandwidth eluded me at the time, a good one would be how airspace is regulated for planes and helicopters. It would be akin to having airlines upgrade their cockpits for the first time since the 1950s in order to fit more planes in the sky at one time by exploiting the smaller margin of safety necessary between planes.
I don't know of too many pilots that like the idea of a free for all in the skies (best example of that being Brazil in recent history) because that impairs the value for all
And that is "Conjure's Conundrum."
mp | 02.05.09 - 12:19 am | #
So... Does Conjure believe that government spending can avert depression?
I would have hoped they used this time to strike the AMT and simplified the tax structure
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 12:11 am | #
They will not simplify the tax code. It is a critical source of campaign contributions. Every other year, they review the tax code and all the campaign contributions roll in, just in time for the election.
It is similar to city and county governments repaving roads in the year before an election. Some might argue that this is elected officials demonstrating tax dollars working effectively. Realistic voters know that if contractors are flush with construction dollars in an election year, the contractors are more generous when campaign fundraisers call.
TCA - thanks for a functional link. Looks like it could be added to CR's cliffdiving meme. Although I've got data, methdology, time series consistency etc problems with these kinds of indicators, surely there needs to be a better communications strategy about what happens under various scenaarios?
Anony - I'm not against rural bb access, it's just how it's provided and who pays.
C
"So... Does Conjure believe that government spending can avert depression?"
Rocky, Conjure doesn't believe in anything. It's going to be interesting to find out because, think about this:
It's been talked about, but it's never been accomplished before.
If it works, this will be the first time in history.
In a deflationary collapse there won't be significantly higher interest rates (significant not to someone who makes a bad bet on appreciation of T bonds, but significant in terms of borrowing costs).
joe shmoe | 02.05.09 - 12:16 am | #
I got confused, here. Are you saying that borrowing costs would not increase, but treasury yields may?
"So... Does Conjure believe that government spending can avert depression?"
The point is that not all government spending is created equal. And make no mistake: tax cuts, right now, are government spending.
joe shmoe,
It's not about the stimulus plan. Look at the money the Treasury is providing to/through the Federal Reserve and FDIC. Even the export-import bank will have their budget raised counter to the declining trade
Now the Federal Reserve is buying mortgages to modify + guarantee through the FDIC, the FDIC just guaranteed a GE bond issue in Hong Kong Dollars.
Even if the stimulus package were optimally spent, it would still be a sideshow to the main event
Well, it has been another long day and another one is coming soon.
I'll check in from time to time.
Good night and good luck to all of you.
Conjure says, "Have a nice day."
So I'm willing to bet this is like the 7.5k "credit" before where it had to be paid back. Granted, it was interest free, but still.
My question has been, can I get somebody like HR Block to give me a tax credit pre-check so I can put the money towards my down payment, thus getting me out of paying PMI... I smell a business plan.
Sure, I'll give you 12k now for the 15k tax credit you are going to be receiving and we'll use the house you are buying as collateral..
Rocky, Conjure doesn't believe in anything.
mp | 02.05.09 - 12:24 am | #
I love it. Conjure is a rational being.
It's been talked about, but it's never been accomplished before.
If it works, this will be the first time in history.
mp | 02.05.09 - 12:24 am | #
10-4
tax cuts, right now, are government spending.
el lurko | 02.05.09 - 12:25 am | #
Agreed. I'd argue that they always are if not balanced by a reduction in outflow somewhere else. When has THAT ever happened?
Per Talbot prices going back to 1997 LEVELS:
crispy&cole | 02.04.09 - 11:42 pm | #
cripsy,
and this little tidbit a little later in the article is another reality that people haven't faced yet:
âThe toughest job to get in the future will be the elderly person greeting you as you enter the local Wal-Mart."
We always hear that the boomers will die with their boots on. That process could be a lot rougher than the imagery.
PDX Renter III,
You don't get a $15k refund. You get 10% of purchase price up to $15k as a tax credit (your top marginal income tax rate x $15k = fresh money from govt)
Rocky
no, of course not
the key word is significant.
the change in borrowing costs can be insignificant to the borrower, but cause a significant loss to a poorly timed investment.
long bond yield just went up 30%. bad for people who bought them last month. not so bad for the govt still borrowing for 30 years at 3.65% or so (though not as good as borrowing at 2.8%)
Damn. It's happened. I am a CR addict. Night, all.
Counterpointer,
Look no further than the USD strengthening and Owner's Equivalent Rent to explain that CPI. OER makes up a huge portion of the index, and is why inflation was understated on the way up.
Vacant homes entering the market and driving down rents in conjunction with bad income/job scenario.
good night scone and conjure and all others.
we'll have more than a few years to discuss depression . . . ugh
In case no one posted mp's link:
Here it is
"the FDIC just guaranteed a GE bond issue in Hong Kong Dollars."
What??????
we do need tax cuts.Everybody should get a cut. why would you want the government to spend all your money wastefully? If the private sector fails, let them fail. They need to cut spending.
From the clock striking midnight to " no sure thing" ?
Hmmmm, I sense a backward moondance
One thing that all of it doesn't account for is the system's need and ability to "create".
Spot on. Can't believe there'll be a bad deflationary period when it's a fiat currency regime everyone has.
I expect quite high inflation and that's the way it'll go but then that problem is manageable.
Appealing concept. I wonder what the cost of a 20% tax credit up to $60,000 would cost. I'd rather cushion the fall rather than giving these outlandish giveaways to insolvent companies.
\tIn case no one posted mp's link:
Speed | 02.05.09 - 12:34 am | #
See my first post in this thread.
I can see how FRED graphs could become an obsessio
From the clock striking midnight to " no sure thing" ?
Hmmmm, I sense a backward moondance
Anonymous | 02.05.09 - 12:37 am | #
Um, no. I think he was saying the stimulus package was no sure thing.
Thanks mp. Don't be a stranger.
So for an overpriced 350K home in a metro area I get less than 5% off? Then I promptly lose it all in equity burn. This is akin to the deal the government wants to give on new autos. There it was up to $1500 off on a new car.
Yeah, hold everything! I'm gonna run out and spend 30K on a new auto for $1500!
This tells me the stimulus is 99% certain to fail. Idiots in Washington just going through the motions. Their lives are padded and their kids go to Harvard and Yale. They are evil lying sc-m buckets! Dirt b-gs! Vile putrescence!!!
You have to hunt them down. No other recourse. They're morons with tactical nukes.
It could be an incentive to reprice homes to $150k - which would be much closer to 3x income mean.
This is what i thnk of the key financial nominees...
http://216.157.72.247/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/clip-image0011.jpg
But in other policies at least there's a distinct break from the old.
What sweet irony it would be if Paulson and Bernanke were prosecuted under the PATRIOT Act's anti-terror provisions for their role in the Bear Stearns' sale:
‘No Prospect for a Profit’ on Fed’s Bear Assets: Chart of Day - Bloomberg.com
So I live in a 150K townhome, next to my good friend next door, in a 150K townhome. We each do a FSBO to each other, move the furniture (wink, wink), and pocket the credit.
Great idea!
dr munch | 02.04.09 - 10:42 pm | #
Peak strawman.
Now how does this reduce the deficit again?
the change in borrowing costs can be insignificant to the borrower, but cause a significant loss to a poorly timed investment.
long bond yield just went up 30%. bad for people who bought them last month. not so bad for the govt still borrowing for 30 years at 3.65% or so (though not as good as borrowing at 2.8%)
joe shmoe | 02.05.09 - 12:31 am | #
Hm. I would say a change in mortgage rates from 5.5% to, oh, say... 10%, would have a pretty painful impact on anyone looking to borrow under those terms. Or, if a company's float went from 5% to 8% they may have to cut costs somwhere else. Such pain would further depress economic activity at a time when things are already pretty bad.
Now, if you are proposing that mortgages may trade at rates below treasury yields in a deflationary spiral, then I can follow you. Whatever the case, our discussion is academic. In a deflationary spiral, there won't be a lot of consumption-oriented borrowing going on to begin with!
Pls educate me.
I didn't have time to read all the comments so if this was covered I apologize. But the question I have is can this tax credit be monitized, ie. used for a down payment and if so is this just a back door way to the no down loan again.
Repeat from early afternoon:
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/5893887540146172058/#866447
This is a bold statement:
... Karthik Ramanathan, the Treasury's acting assistant secretary for financial markets, said the gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs....
-------
I am concerned about a repeat of 1997. None of the emerging economies will get funding in the face of this tsunami.
just a back door way to the no down loan again
Where there's a will there's a way. I think this will get shot down, however, for the reasons mentioned here on CR.
Obama's team could do worse than reading CR.
Sorry, but there's no chance in hell that any stimulus package would reverse what's already in the cards.
We don't have line item veto, but we do have "signing statements".
gross issuance of Treasurys may reach $6.5 trillion this fiscal year. He expressed confidence that Treasury could finance any increase in funding needs....
RE | 02.05.09 - 12:51 am | #
This just seems unreal to me - that increasing our debt load by a third wouldn't prompt our creditors to demand a higher risk premium. I suppose we can finance huge funding needs, but I have a hard time believing it won't come at a cost. That said, people are pretty stupid.
I have to turn in. Night all.
RE:
If the government's expected to run a $1.6T deficit, and rolling over ~$2 Trillion, then the debt needed should be about $3.6T.
I'm assuming then that the other $4T will be issued to sterilize the Fed's liquidity injections to the banks. (UST pulls money from the private sector through the sales of UST and leaves the cash in the FRB's account).
Yikes!
c&c,
Don't know if you remember, but I've been touting Talbott for years. I read his book soon after it's publication in 2003; real prescient stuff. Put me onto other good books, websites, etc. and led to the discovery of my bearish alter ego (aka "the bear" in "tj & the bear").
we do need ponies.Everybody should get a pony. why wouldn't you want the government to give you a pony? If the pony fails, let them give you another pony. They need to give us po
"signing statements"
Speed | 02.05.09 - 12:54 am | #
Scary shit, that. So childish of Bush to sign legislation and then immediately stamp his own twisted interpretation on it. Please please please... Obama don't go there!
I'm assuming then that the other $4T will be issued to sterilize the Fed's liquidity injections to the banks. (UST pulls money from the private sector through the sales of UST and leaves the cash in the FRB's account).
anonymous | 02.05.09 - 12:56 am | #
I agree though I expect the budget deficit to be closer to 2 trillion and potentially somewhat higher.
i luv ponies,
Here's how it'll work. The IRS will show up at your door and "pony up!"
ahem... That's say "pony up!"
ok folks...so how many homes do you think we can buy & then sell, amongst ourselves in a one year window? Recruit some overly optimistic appraisals to jack up the 10% and we're in bizness...
don't lol...you know someone's making plans right now....
As for the excuse to the IRS....well, I kept moving around to look for work.
This will also affect disposable income and result in less consumption:
No link, it is from Gary Shilling's insight:
... The California Public Employees Retirement System...saw its assets drop from $260 billion on Oct. 31, 2007 to $193 billion a year later... That pushed the ratio of the fund's assets to liabilities from 102% in June 2007 to a likely 68% in June of this year, well below the 80% or more ratio for a healthy pension fund. As a result, Calpers will probably require state employer members to increase their contributions from 13% of payroll to 15% to 17% in July 2010.
The $27 billion Pennsylvania state employees' pension fund used an exotic leveraged strategy called portable alpha to invest $9.2 billion with hedge funds under the assumption they would beat the stock market. They didn't last year,and it probably cost the pension fund $2.5 billion, which may require the state to quadruple its annual contribution to $1 billion in 2012. ...
We've had fewer of them since WWII, and they've been milder, except for this one.
scone | 02.04.09 - 11:58 pm | #
That's because after WWII we had the boomer generation, the world's reserve currency, and started spending money we didn't have.
Panzner: More in the Family
Credit Enima
my links are bad... they don't work ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0ponhnk8D0
Larry Summers praised by Clive Owen
Rocky,
Aren't you in Tx? Thought I read that somewhere along the way. If not, I apologize.
I'm in houston.
I only ask, because wouldn't you see the 15K going a very long way in Tx RE market? It has made me reconsider purchasing.
...all can play along. but no f'n texas jokes, damn it. (i keed, i keed)
Big Deficits and a Weaker Dollar
By: Michael S. Rozeff
Big Deficits and a Weaker Dollar - GoldSeek.com
How long has AIG Bank been around?
AIG Federal Savings Bank has been FDIC insured since May 15, 2000.
It was established on May 15, 2000.
Its main office (headquarters) is located at:
One Alico Plaza, 600 King Street
Wilmington, Delaware 19801
County of New Castle
Is this a "refundable" tax credit or, similar to the $7500 credit, a non-refundable tax credit? In case of the latter, I would assume that one must have a Federal tax liability of at least 15K in order for one to get the maximum benefit?
So, for someone making only an average 60K salary in, say, Arizona, this will only really be worth about 10K.
If someone pays 5k in taxes and buys a house for $150k, Do they get a refund of 10k? Or do their taxes just go to zero?
ok... maybe I just figured out how to use CR Partner... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRHX7oNw1ho
here's the Tax Cheats!!! for extra credit can anyone identify the badge behind Paulson's face in the opening credits...
nobody in this entire blog universe will know will the Paulson face was taken from, I'd be suprised...
Thank you my researching abilities seem to be on the low end of the effective spectrum tonight.
Oh oh, we might lose Volcker now!
Volcker Chafes at Obama Panel Delay, Strains With Summers Rise
Volcker Chafes at Panel Delay, Clashes With Summers (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.
Pearlstein: Stumbling on Their Sense of Entitlement
volker and obama - trying to clean the mess up left by people in the age gap between them... lord, if you exist, help these men find the sufficient wisdom to clean up the boomer wreckage.
Read between the lines.
the president values his advice
but I don't
When the economic team was announced, I knew that there was no way that Summers would yield to Volcker, despite Volcker's resume and physical stature. You don't get to be where Summers has been without being a major prick.
Still, I thought that the triumvirate of Summer (macro), Volcker (banking), and Romer (domestic economic policy) could work, given that each covers a slightly different economic niche. Spoke to several people this week. No doubt about it. The macro-finance picture is run by Summers, with Goolsbee as his lapdog. Romer is in charge of the "soft" economic stuff, like stimulus (notice how user friendly that ARRP presentation was). Volcker is effectively out, and that is why the government will not nationalize.
Sounds like Volcker was used for election period window dressing...or
maybe he had one meeting, where he
suggested we take our medicine, and
got himself uninvited to the looting.
Summers and other White House officials said Volcker has continued to play an important role consulting on revamping financial regulations and briefed Obama on the issue last week at a White House meeting with Summers and Geithner.
That has been the only time Volcker has visited the White House since the inauguration, including yesterday when the ex- Fed chief was in Washington to testify before Congress on the need for stepped up government oversight of the financial system. In addition, Volcker hasnt been publicly mentioned as taking an active role in economic recovery plans.
What people need are tax breaks on products that help them lead healthy enjoyable lifes, empowering their brains, rejuvenating their hearts, etc, the natural way. More details at link below. Some great information there.
http://tinyurl.com/akvd3
Eye Plastic Surgery | Lifts
How much are eyelifts?
My first home bought in 1975 cost $32,950 a 3/2/2 w/1,550sq new with 30 yr fix 8% conventional to be paid in full in 2005..my how times have changed. I asked dear old dad for $1,000 to cover some of the down payment and was turned down. Bought it anyway and could not afford a lawnmower the first summer had to borrow dear old dad's. Age:22
Volcker was 23 in 1950, but did not fight in Korea.
Instead he chose to work at the Fed straight from school. I hope he has the humility to realize that the institution he's been such a part of for all of these decades has totally failed.
Here's a solar prefab for 24k (and 10% off)
For NorkaWest or anyone else wondering about DTV reception, some coverage maps:
TV Query - TV Technical Information - Video Division - MB (FCC) USA
TV Fool
TV Fool
AntennaWeb
FCC DTV Coverage Area Maps - Reports - DTV USA Forum
From December
The FCC late Tuesday said it was releasing two reports with maps and charts outlining the changes in TV coverage areas from analog to digital service for all 1,749 full-power TV staions in the U.S. They show that 89% of stations (1,533) will see a net gain of viewers in the switch to digital, while 11% (196 stations) will have a net loss.
The biggest problems right now are the digital towers are not at full power while the analog ones are still running, some people need to sort out the wiring inside their homes (if they have a lot of splitters, long lead from the antenna), or their old antenna is poor at receiving the digital signals (need the right length for half wave resonance)
Daschle, Killefer and Richardson are all lessons in how compromised any person in our elite have become. The disconnect between how the masses are expected to live and comply versus anyone with power and wealth is galling.
Pres Obama is learning a very big lesson early on that no matter what he wants to accomplish the people he wants to lead this circus really aren't the best for the job.
He'd do better finding obscure professors(non ivy league) who have written some books and papers in relevant areas and appointing them. Have them bring along their favorite grad students and let them set policy. How could they make it any worse FFS?
ARW:
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Capital Corp., General Electric Co.s finance arm, borrowed HK$1 billion ($129 million) with the first Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.-backed bonds sold in an Asian currency.
Stamford, Connecticut-based GE Capital sold three-year floating-rate notes paying 0.2 percentage point more than the three-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate, according to an e- mail sent to investors today. HSBC, a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc, managed the top investment grade-rated sale.
What the heck is making the nightly news or morning paper if that isn't?
For those interested in gold:
Gold prices could hit $1,500, fears Merrill Lynch CIO
Gold prices may hit $1,500 (Dh5,509) an ounce in the next 12 to 15 months, Gary Dugan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Merrill Lynch, said yesterday.
Dugan termed his apprehensions of gold striking such a high as a "fear" that may come true. He reasoned that such a price would mean the other commodities and streams of investments have been shunned by investors.
With confidence in currencies shaken to the core, the yellow metal is increasingly assuming the role of "the most trusted currency", Dugan said. "We have never seen such a rush to buy gold. It's bringing in security and it's still affordable." ...
What the heck is making the nightly news or morning paper if that isn't?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 1:54 am | #
I agree it is a major story. They are the pioneers with quite a few still too come.
Britney Spears went to Starbucks.
@EHP
What the heck is making the nightly news or morning paper if that isn't?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 1:54 am | #
Gold prices may hit $1,500
GS is betting on gold at $500.
This should be the top news :
Titanoboa - Titanic Boa Fossil From Colombia Is World's Largest Snake
Titanoboa - thirteen metres, one tonne, largest snake ever. : Not Exactly Rocket Science
visa and mastercard strong AH on visa earnings
i think life will go on without C and BAC.
big conglomerate banks are like high end retail - a sector we can honestly do without
Re: He'd do better finding obscure professors(non ivy league) who have written some books and papers in relevant areas and appointing them. Have them bring along their favorite grad students and let them set policy.
Speed writes:
Gold prices may hit $1,500
GS is betting on gold at $500.
On the Contrary!! See:-
Goldman Sachs lifts gold price forecast to $1,000/oz
Goldman Sachs lifts gold price forecast to $1,000/oz
| Business News
| Reuters
What the heck is making the nightly news or morning paper if that isn't?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 1:54 am |
Just testing the waters for the FAILboat. Seeing just how far they can sail without radar detection.
The fundamental poison is that we don't have enough good paying jobs, or the willingness to defend those jobs. Housing is secondary to employment. If you can't get a good job, how can you afford a good house?
On a side note, I loved the 2nd degree that congress gave to the SEC wednesday.
What was the quote earlier today/yesterday?
How can you manage an economy with too many consumers and not enough workers?
Another quote from somewhere else, a few weeks back:
"Inflation will begin as soon as the hole is filled."
Bleh.
Citigroup Hides Mystery Meat in Balance Sheet: Jonathan Weil - Bloomberg.com
Citigroup Hides Mystery Meat in Balance Sheet: Jonathan Weil
Even now, Citigroup Inc.s bosses cant get over their delusions of grandeur.
You can see their shiny optimism in a $44 billion balance- sheet item called deferred-tax assets, which is a fancy term for pent-up losses that the bank hopes to use later to cut its tax bills. That figure tells you Citigroups executives, in spite of their banks near-collapse, are still forecasting future profits as far as the eye can see. They have every incentive to do this, too. If they ever turned pessimistic, the assets might go poof.
FFDIC
Saw that as well. They haven't been the only bank in the world to use past losses as Tier 1 capital under the guise of tax credits. My favourite though is when they record a capital gain by writing down the value of their outstanding debt to the market price. Level 3 "no model needed now" is just tired
Even now, Citigroup Inc.s bosses cant get over their delusions of grandeur.
You can see their shiny optimism in a $44 billion balance- sheet item called deferred-tax assets, which is a fancy term for pent-up losses that the bank hopes to use later to cut its tax bills. That figure tells you Citigroups executives, in spite of their banks near-collapse, are still forecasting future profits as far as the eye can see. They have every incentive to do this, too. If they ever turned pessimistic, the assets might go poof.
FFDIC | 02.05.09 - 2:09 am |
Mark to Citi. The new Bad Bank slogan. CNN is working on the graphic and theme music.
bgates
conglomerate banks aren't the problem, inasmuch there should be separation between deposits/cheques/wire transfers/etc from proprietary trading/debt securitization/bridge loans/SIVs/etc
Have the utility banking level that is no nonsense, and then have a more free level where risk and reward/punishment can impact big players without threatening the whole system of financial transactions at once.
Chen: It's just me, you, and 80 other computers with silent keyboards..
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.05.09 - 2:14 am | #
And none of this is done without the examiner-in-charge's sign off. I predict the FDIC will face its own SEC horror show grilling before Congress at some point in the not too distant future probably when (1) the basic $40B fund runs out and (2) bank runs begin in earnest...Are you in England or what? I noticed your spelling of favorite..
It's just me, you, and 80 other computers with silent keyboards
Sorry, EHP, I was having a chuckle on Mish. His egotism is amazing sometimes. He knows more than the central bank management of Russia, India, Japan and Mexico.
.
1 money yogi,
good eve
back when i was trying to figure out how to make money in the world of wildly inflated real estate prices i did some research into small prefab with the idea of piecing together a minimalist community,rural retreat, or student housing. here are some links.
$5,000 Paper House is the World's Swankiest Hobo Pad
$5,000 Paper House is the World's Swankiest Hobo Pad - Universal world house - Gizmodo
prefab and micro housing:
Rocio Romero, modern design and prefab architecture
http://weehouse.com/flash/SFWA_index.html#/2008/
kitHAUS - true modular site constructed pre-fabricated housing system
Error 404
The Microhouse: A Small Home You Can Build
Small and Fabulous: Modular Living as It Should Be
Modular Dwellings
fabnews
sheds cabanas:
MODERN CABANA
Modern Shed Pictures
treehouses:
O2 Treehouse
home
10 Amazing Tree Houses from Around the World | Design + Ideas on WU
BAUMRAUM TREEHOUSES | Inhabitat
other related:
architecture and hygiene - home
whats up ffdic
those small prefab links above were from me
A Magna auto parts plant in Syracuse NY was just closed. 1,400 workers, UAW union. I think I saw it featured on upstate NY tv news just over a month ago as a source of hope
This page is available to GlobePlus subscribers
Part of the solution at New Process Gear involved a tentative agreement that called for wages to be chopped to $16 an hour by August from $20.16 now if certain financial goals were not met.
Workers agreed last year to cut their $29.11 an hour wages to $20.16.
If those financial goals were not met by August, the plant would be closed or a new two-tiered wage system put in effect, with so-called core workers paid $16 an hour and non-core workers $13.
From $29.11 to $16 per hour in just a few months... and now closed with any re-opening years away
Well, WB did it again. That's one sweet deal:
Swiss Re Raises $2.6 Billion -
"The Berkshire Hathaway investment will be in the form of a convertible instrument with a 12 percent coupon, Swiss Re said. Berkshire has the option to convert it into Swiss Re shares after three years, at a price of 25 francs per share."
Nice, 12%!!! plus conversion 3 years from now at the price bellow the current market price (which is rather low).
there are better deal out there then just soup cans, guns and matches.
otishertz - thanks for the links!
GS and gold. I know they were shorting gold recently. Maybe they switched gears.
Financial crisis: Guardian.co.uk poll points finger at Alan Greenspan |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Poll points finger at Greenspan
Former Fed chairman got 31.9% of the vote
Bush received 16.7% and Brown 11%
(Guardian's poll results - I voted for Phil Gramm)
FFDIC,
Canadian actually, I can read/write both American and British english, often hopping between the 2.
I think the FDIC will get by easy, Sheila Bair is a well trained pet. Even if they get grilled, there will be other stories. I honestly don't blame the examiners -- you think they had the man power, let alone the backing of their boss in threatening a shutdown for a risk non-obvious in the individual transaction.
Broward Horne,
In a confederacy of crazies, it's always good to have different kinds of crazy so you can judge where you stand.
otishertz,
How did you post so many links? Haloscan will never let me post more than 4 at a time
Gotta go to bed before 2 or I'll turn into a banker...
Cool. I have a friend who hates his law job, wants to sell prefabs.
Additional comment RE digital TV.
Most of the established channels are VHF (Ch 2-13) that broadcast at lower frequencies than UHF (Ch 14-82). Lower frequencies are better at "getting around corners" than higher frequencies and as a result you typically need a better line-of-site for UHF channels.
A BIG change in digital is that most of the DTV signals are in the UHF band, even if you think you are watching a VHF station.
To find the actual digital channel that your current local analog TV channel does/will broadcast on, check out:
AntennaWeb
"Now, let me say this," Obama said. "In the past few days, I've heard criticisms of this plan that frankly echo the very same failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis in the first place -- the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems, that we can address this enormous crisis with half steps and piecemeal measures and tinkering around the edges, that we can ignore fundamental challenges, like the high cost of healthcare, and still expect our economy and our country to thrive.
"I reject these theories," he continued. "And, by the way, so did the American people when they went to the polls in November and voted resoundingly for change."
Obama also sought to sway public opinion in his favor through his newspaper column, reiterating many of the same points.
"In recent days, there have been misguided criticisms of this plan that echo the failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis -- the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems," Obama wrote.
That was a clear jab at Republicans, who have an alternative proposal to jump-start the economy that depends primarily on tax cuts.
Late nite questions to ponder~
Is the so-called struggle between 'capitalism' and 'socialism' a Myth after all?
Comrade De Chaos,
That's bad news for insurance competitiveness. There's literally 3 or 4 big reinsurers in the world (the insurance companies insurance company)
Swiss Re, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG
When insurance rates went up across the board circa 2005-2006, it was because their oligopoly had lost money on Katrina and so they ended up causing all kinds of premiums to be raised (which had nothing themselves to do with a hurricane)
So now the AIG is funded by the government, and Swiss Re is reliant on Berkshire for theirs. Great news
The sure way to acquire massive private monopoly wealth is to eliminate laissez faire and gain control of the economy and finance through compliant politicians and selected government & central banking regulation and deregulation?
EHP
i dunno, i just copied from the address bar and dragged bookmarks. maybe it has something to do with using firefox or the way i'm using firefox.
Corporate socialism or 'modern capitalism' is market and finance control by using political influence?
Has the political influence of corporate socialism now become political control of the process?
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner needs to detail his intentions for the more than $200 billion of government stakes in U.S. banks to quell confusion in financial markets, according to a new oversight report.
Treasury needs to begin developing a framework for its overall investment strategy, Neil Barofsky, special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, said today in his first review of the fund. How long these securities should be held -- and when and under what circumstances they should be sold into the market -- are vitally important questions.
The report underscores concern at a lack of clarity over the governments exit strategy; shares of the banks that have received taxpayer funds fell more than four times the Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index in the past three months. The issue is set to grow as the Obama administration plans another round of capital injections into major financial companies.
lloyds is in reinsurance too and they were nationalized by britian.
isn't that like being half pregnant?
wow, the word "partially" vanished from my post after being placed in greater than less than symbols.
as in partially pregnant
partially nationalized ...
i gotta sleep. i'm too little to be up so late
Some good waxing and waning on the modern financial system
Edge: CAN SCIENCE HELP SOLVE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS?
CAN SCIENCE HELP SOLVE THE ECONOMIC CRISIS?
By Mike Brown, Stuart Kauffman, Zoe-Vonna Palmrose and Lee Smolin
The Reality Club: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Douglas Rushkoff, Larry Sanger, Mike Brown, George Dyson, Emanuel Derman, Michael Shermer, Paul Romer, Tor Nørretranders, Eric Weinstein, Brian Knutson
Taleb seems more like an ass who would argue against calculators in favour of the abacus on the grounds that his wilfully limited experience reinforces his original opinio
Any idea how this affects the $7,500 loan for first time home purchasers? Do you get both or just one or the other.
... every time I read him.
Across his essays I have seen him mostly look back to a time before computers and how options were priced back then in a systematic way, and use that as justification for computers being the problem. He just completely overlooks the ability to incorporate that previous methodology using modern tools.
What irritates me the most about him is that he assumes computers are incorrect probability distribution choice are the same thing. He is fully ignorant of Control Systems Theory, which is a more developed way of discussing and working with what he struggles to get out in media appearances.
It's well past being funny when he uses the analogy of flying an airplane with an economic model, while overlooking what systems those planes actually use to fly.
... computers and incorrect choice of probability distribution ....
He's like a kid in the 2nd grade, making fun of kids in the 1st grade.
He's had enough kurtosis for his hedge funds to do well, and since he has declined to confirm results -- it's logical bet that he's losing money during the one time when his 'fat tail strategy' should be paying off the most
The economic critics of the past would be astonished by how this dominance of system by the big players has evolved. How the controls were dismantled to allow exploding derivatives. How the worker/consumer is going to be crushed. How the assets were milked leaving hollow shells of companies and banks. How society has worked for the few in a new boom/bust cycle that will be winner take all.
The thing to do now is trace how it was done, how it was set up to Crash leaving a trail of losses and insolvencies.
This could be the Greatest Sting of all time. Better than the Great Depression Crash nand resulting impoverishment.
The key was to increase the investment risk ratios geometrically so that the losses were almost incalculable. To make this deflation so big that assets will collapse to pennies on the dollar.
And the question is what kind of economy could follow? Free market or police state command economy? Can there be something in-between...a mixed national socialist state with an underground economy?
Isn't the private Federal Reserve System a legal 'money supply' monopoly not answerable to Congress and the American People and unable to be audited?
I mean that was the situation in 1913 and I don't think it has changed any by 2009.
Google Inc wants to cash in its three-year-old, 5 percent stake in Internet media company AOL.
Time Warner Inc said on Wednesday it received a request from Google last week seeking to exercise its "demand registration statement" on the AOL stake.
Time Warner Chief Financial Officer John Martin, speaking on a conference call with analysts, said Time Warner's options include taking AOL public, buying back the stake, or delaying a decision.
"We're reviewing what we received and we're evaluating our options," Martin said.
Time Warner sold the AOL stake to Google in a 2005 transaction that valued AOL at $20 billion. Last month Google wrote down the value of the stake, implying that AOL is now worth $5.5
...
Time Warner Chief Executive Jeffrey Bewkes said on the conference call that his company is considering all options, including spinning off AOL to shareholders.
IPO-time!!!
the guest,
The Federal Reserve is private by charter, but is only at arms length. In practice it's not private because Congress has the authority to effectively take it over at will. All of their 'innovative' facilities like the commercial paper purchase fund that were not in response to an immediate crisis, should have been done through Congress -- it's just that no one even cares anymore
As for your discussion points on economic/market structure, it's more of a philosophical one. There is a continuum of possibilities, and you can selectively interpret/name them according to the chosen philosophy/jingoism