Doesn't Barry mean "Are recessions taking longer from which to recover?"

CR - spelling correction needed in topic

Never mind all the feel-good happy-talk at work (state university) about how they'll still preserve jobs even with horrific budget cuts....We just got this email today:

From: HR.Employment@
Sent: Monday, February 09, 2009 11:39
To: Undisclosed Recipients
Subject: Outplacement Center   In response to the current and anticipated budgetary climate, Human Resources is taking proactive steps to prepare for any type of impact including a reduction-in-force (RIF).  In keeping with our mission and values, Human Resources is committed to supporting every impacted employee including those who may need to seek and secure gainful employment.  At this time, we are announcing our Outplacement Center which has been created to provide employees with information on available services and resources including: Access to job search resources Professional cover letter and resume training Networking and job prospect development Interview skill building Benefits information At this time, services are available to permanent employees.  We will continue to evaluate employee needs and encourage suggestions on how we may best facilitate changes to come.

This is what the Fed calls "moderating pressures on resource utilization".

does a hollowed out economy make any noise when it hits bottom?

CR,

The percent job loss relative to peak employment for the current recession is relative to the 2007 peak, right?

If you look at the employment:population ratio, you can see that the peak in monthly employment was in 2000, not 2007. Should you be calculating the job losses relative to 2000 instead? The percentage loss for the current recession would be closer to 4% than 2%.

Robert "Doom is Nigh" blog: Thursday Sept 18 Must read of the day

Did you see this article the day the US almost ended?
Scary stuff.

"Teeth get impacted. People get laid off. I can't stand HR circumlocutions.
scone"

How do feel when employees quit their job after being trained to go to another job? Is that OK?

In every economic downturn in American history men like him had sprung up. It was usually men, sometimes women, sometimes families, but usually guys like him. Maybe buddied up, usually not. Sometimes with a dog. Most times not. He had tried a dog. It didn’t work. He could barely feed himself. He had traded the dog to an Asian family for 3 days worth of unexpired MRE’s and a handjob. It was a small dog.

The difference this time around was men like him got from place to place. Trains were not happening. First 9/11, and then Los Angeles, had made Homeland Security lock them down hard. Hitchhiking? He laughed to himself. Nowadays trying that would get you a shallow grave in some corn field. Hopefully you would be dead awhile before you filled it. No, he was like many, a bike bum.

A bike got you somewhere somewhat quick and gave you range. Most shelters, and other do-gooder organizations, well they would only let you avail yourself of their services for a few days.
You had to be mobile in order not to starve to death. Plus it allowed you work the fringes of the city, which was where a lot of the shelters anyways. You could then take a bikepath and find a safe park, an abandoned house, or maybe someone would tell of a door that was no longer locked at a strip mall. You had to be careful though. People would hurt you bad for a bike now.

Carlos like doing his pedaling early on. Get to the shelter and find out if there was going to room or food available. Maybe take a shower. He had a few restaurants that would feed him if he did some minor sweeping and such. Better than the dumpsters. The oldtimers liked to tell about how in the old days dumpsters were cornucopias. He didn’t know. He had a job, a house, a family, and hope back then. Know he wasn’t sure what he had. Other than the desire not to end up tagged and bagged by the county.

"The worst recessions (for employment) were the manufacturing recessions.

best wishes.
Calculated Risk "

Or the unmeasured contract employee layoffs/current real estate industry layoffs if you take those people (not counted in the numbers) into consideration.

ding ding ding. Opening bell!

As someone noted earlier, the increased number of 1099's (and undocumented workers) are probably responsible for the atypically gradual decrease in employment at the begining of this recession (second graph). They acted as a cushion, i.e. the first to go, and after they went, then the employed were next on the block.

In fact, this has been the case for some time as every succeding recession has been more gradual than the preceding one.

JS
Breaks signal up into frequencies and magnitude, instead of magnitude and time

Just a small thought, idea being the rapidity of changes show up as higher frequencies and the spectral distribution would make for easier categorization of detection of fraud/to-be-revised stats

Not a whole lot of thought behind it

a bode plot off the spectral diagram would be the fingerprint of a recessio

Who is buying here?? Seriously?

Are people convinced that Geithner is actually going to put forth a plan that will save our financial system? Or are they merely trading on the belief that others will believe the hype?

If so, there is going to be a nasty race for the exits. Maybe a sharp and quick pop after announcement followed by a massive selloff?

The next leg down will be severe, as it will reveal conclusively that our fearless leaders do not have control, are using flawed economic models, have limited understanding of what is happening, and have NO PLAN for a real recovery.

The next wave down, whenever it hits, will be a sight to behold, as the last semblance of denial/hope will be dashed and people will have to face the reality of our dire situation.

cnbc's most popular phrases:

The bottom's IN!
It's priced in already!
The market anticipates 6 months ahead!

Nova, is that your shit? If you publish a dystopian novel, I will buy a copy.

When are they going to calculate the number of illegal alien jobs that have been lost so far? Anybody have the guts to do that?

Are people convinced that Geithner is actually going to put forth a plan that will save our financial system? Or are they merely trading on the belief that others will believe the hype?
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.09.09 - 3:38 pm | #

Ding ding ding ding.

He pedaled slowly, picking his way through the holes in the paved surface of the bike path. It had been awhile since it had been maintained. Also the trees and bushes were growing back from where they had been trimmed. He didn’t like that.

Word was the Woods People were starting to ambush bike bums. There used to be an unspoken truce, as many Woods People had been bikers, or at least understood there was not that much difference. Not anymore.\t

It was the young ones he was sure. They just did not give a shit. A lot of them were never quite right after losing the Internet, the games, the Ipods, It was like their brains had shorted.

He pulled off onto a path leading into the development. Some of the houses were occupied. Whether by squatters or owners he did not know or care. He avoided them. They hated people like him. Some of them would shoulder their rifles and track him with the sights. Just there way of letting him know he was not wanted.

Once he had gone past his old house. Someone lived there. Someone had a roof and water. Someone did not have to shit in the woods like a bear. It about killed him. Those dry hacking sobs that came out of now where. He never went back.

The house developments that survived, well a lot of them either had security they paid for. Others, the HOAs were doing their own policing. Woods People had a tendency to disapear if the HOA came to call.

Michael,
Herrmann Forecasting LLC was interviewed with an estimate of ~750k in construction if I remember correctly

There were probably more than 12mn illegal immigrants in the US at peak
Illegal immigrants in the US: How many are there? | csmonitor.com

The Notorious A.I.G. | 02.09.09 - 3:39 pm

Thanks - just spur of the moment riffs

Prime Jumbo-Mortgage Losses Projected to Double by JPMorgan Amid Defaults
JPMorgan Analysts Double Jumbo-Mortgage Loss Forecast (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

U.S. Bank Failures May Reach 1,000 on Commercial Property Loans, RBC Says
Bank Failures May Reach 1,000 on Bad Loans, RBC Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Shorting financials this week is as sure a thing as buying real estate in 2003.

Where's the "indentured peasants" bar on that graph? I could swear it's missing from the current recession.

sportsfan | 02.09.09 - 3:52 pm

So do I. For some reason I am on a roll today.

They'll capitulate -- its only a matter of time. The people I talk to are scared, are starting to suspect that things are badly out of control, but don't know what to do about it.

Because they are not savvy about investing, they take whatever advice their financial advisers give them. It is a laundry list of the usual investment cliche's. It will only take a small push for the festering doubts to overtake this retail investing crowd and cause them to pull what little cash they have remaining out of the markets.

The "professionals" are about to become irrelevant, IMO.

ova,
It is good so far, but I'm waiting for the love interest and the sex then the explosions and the sex.

Nova, is that your shit? If you publish a dystopian novel, I will buy a copy.
The Notorious A.I.G. | 02.09.09 - 3:39 pm | #

Nova writes some pretty good stuff. He usually posts it late at night.

I'm a 1st year Econ Grad student, I'm not immediatly finding a clear explination of Fourier in my econometrics texts? And wiki does not offer a mathmatical explination.
JS | 02.09.09 - 3:36 pm | #

Go to the math or physics section of your college bookstore & browse - you'll find something useful there. I took F/A almost 30 years ago and it was taught by the math dept - the class was populated by engineers like me (mostly chemical & electrical), physics grad school, econ grad school and math majors.  Later I bought a book on 'numerical methods' with really good algorithms for converting fourier analysis theory into 'code' to simulate.  All those books are LONG gone but I'd bet there is something similar out there like it.

The key metric at this point, and this relates to the previous thread, is the household debt to income ratio.

Using unemployment as the metric is like using a turn coordinator in lieu of an artificial horizon.

That's why Conjure and I are looking forward to the next flow of funds report.

If the debt to income ratio continues to rise, we might just as well close up shop for a years and wait it out.

Also, the CNBC fools treated Roubini and Taleb in a dismissive manner.

FedEx Freight to cut about 900 jobs
FedEx Freight to cut about 900 jobs
| Reuters

"The U.S. doesn't need 4.5 million hotel rooms any more, about 1 for every 35 adults. Having that many hotel rooms was a wasteful extravagance, and we will probably see half a million fewer rooms sustainaable in the future. Every 8-10 hotel rooms lost is one job, gone forever.

We are downsizing to a permanently smaller, slower-growth economy, especially in permanent employment."

Wagon and wagon wheel manufacturers argued the same thing. If you can't see passed your nose....

Nostrovia,

..........Japanese Nissan layoff 20,000 people......

CNBC fools treated Roubini and Taleb in a dismissive manner

While at the same time asking them where to hide.

Does anyone feel like I am spamming doing these stories? I will stop.

I'm digging them, Nova. As far as I'm concerned, post away.

But you should really set up a blog. I'm not on CR every day, and I wouldn't want to miss an installment.

JS
The first problem with econometrics is the dependence on ceteris paribus

The second problem with econometrics is a proclivity to create models from the perspective of deconstructing a system

The third problem with econometrics is the general practice of limiting the math to statistics

There is a lot of dead wood to be cleared in the field

Thanks A.I.G. maybe I will... Kind of doubt it.

CR is putting a hundred newspapers out of business. To say it a different way, CR (and other bloggers) are opportunistically filling a vacuum left by imploding newspaper business models.
rich | 02.09.09 - 3:56 pm | #

Rich, CR mostly gets his lead stories from newspapers. I agree that the "physical" newspaper model is on its deathbed, but without newspapers there would be no bloggers, since blogs usually dissect newspaper articles.

Everybody stop saying "recovery", you'll jinx it.

ova, you really should write, you absolutely have a gift...

Another $800B causes the market to yawn.

Also, the CNBC fools treated Roubini and Taleb in a dismissive manner.
mp | 02.09.09 - 3:59 pm | #

I saw that too - the 'if you are so smart how come you aren't rich' meme. Einstein didn't get rich either but A-Rod is well on his way... which is smarter? F'ing CNBC.

prariedog, a stable value fund is normally invested in high-rated short-term securities. It could be invested in that indirectly via money market funds. I would expect some treasuries, but mostly corporates for the yield. It is probably what you're looking for - losses are possible, but if you're getting losses there, there's not really anyplace safe.

Treasuries are not all bonds, but the specific subset issued by the US Treasury department. They tend to have very low yields but are considered (perhaps not accurately anymore) as ultra-safe. Any investment manager who equates treasuries with all bonds is either a blithering idiot or deliberately lying. Not sure what you can do vis-a-vis somebody like that in the Wachovia IRA department, but you should know it.

Or the demand for employees goes up, increasing wages and salaries.......
xxxxx | 02.09.09 - 3:43 pm | #

Thats what I'm hoping for... (I'm only 29)
nades | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 3:49 pm | #

I'm in my 50's, and I'm hoping you FICA payments

query_tool, I'm much more militant about the likelihood of a bond market crash than Rosenberg. In fact, I think it's now baked in.

I've also become much more bearish than Roubini. Unlike Roubini, I have no faith in any of the morons now pulling the levers.

As I said before, we're now at DEFCON1 and preparing for the worst.

I saw that too - the 'if you are so smart how come you aren't rich' meme. Einstein didn't get rich either but A-Rod is well on his way... which is smarter? F'ing CNBC.
dryfly | 02.09.09 - 4:11 pm | #

The interviewer obviously didn't read Fooled by Randomness where Taleb deomnstrates that getting rich is more a byproduct of one's luck than one's preceived skill.

He cut through someones backyard. Well it was a backyard once. Now trees were sprouting, the grass was high, and he about went end over end when he tried go over the top of a bigwheel that was completely camouflaged by the growing grass. The pain let him know he just racked himself. That made him pause for a minute. Yes indeed.

Once he had recovered from the waves of pain he slipped off his bike to check the front tire. Thank god it was ok. He had no idea how he would replace a tire. Something he would catch himself worrying about, then just as quickly lock the thought down. Carlos knew losing a tire could, and would, send him into the ranks of the Tree People.

He pushed the bike the rest of the way. He had stayed here before. The stink was not as bad as many houses from urine, and hopefully no one had shit in the greatroom. He knew better than attempt the basement. Basements were bad. Very bad. After he had went into the one on a whim, or a hunch, he never knew. What he had seen hanging on the wall, her flesh past the bloat stage had been enough.

He slid the bike in. Sometimes he slept with the bike chained to him. Pulling his stainless steel steak knife from its duct tape sheath. He began checking rooms and windows. Surprises nowadays were usually unhappy at best; long lingering pain at worse.

He settled down, pulling out army surplus blanket that scratched and itched him some nights so badly he wanted to scream. After making sure the knife was handy he drifted off to sleep. His dream of being at the last company picnic was cut short as every sense he had possesed flashed on full alert. He was not alone in the house. Yet where? What had woke him up? He laid there silent, grasping his steak knife tightly. He heard it now. A faint scratching.

He slowly rose up to a sitting position. It was footsteps. Shit! His heart was pounding. A faint shape materialized out of the darkness. Not very tall. It was almost a full moon and the light of it coming in the window illuminated her. She was maybe 12 years old. The same age that his daughter would be. She looked a lot like her. He relaxed.

recessions taking longer to recover from could be related to demographics - most boomers are not configured to bounce back and consume at previous levels - most likely they are poised to begin consuming at lower and lower levels as retirement is entered into (voluntarily or otherwise)

ova
Don't stop, although errily possible hence depressive.......

Nothing better than the smell of napon(spelling?) in the morning...
losr&confused | 02.09.09 - 3:56 pm | #

Nap

Rich, CR mostly gets his lead stories from newspapers. I agree that the "physical" newspaper model is on its deathbed, but without newspapers there would be no bloggers, since blogs usually dissect newspaper articles.

Having been a journalist for much of my life, I have to disagree. There's nothing inherently sacred about newspapers, and there will be no shortage of news as they disappear.

There's an interesting, strange article in today's NY Times about the paper's own "last-paper standing" strategy. It's like an editor said to a reporter: "Write an objective article about the economic health of the Times" but the writer was timid about losing his job is he POed any bigshots upstairs.

Look on the bright side of life losr&confused

the great depression had 75% employment

Does anyone feel like I am spamming doing these stories? I will stop.
nova | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 4:03 pm | #

I really enjoy it.  I'll rely on your good sense to keep it within reason.

Does anyone feel like I am spamming doing these stories? I will stop.
nova | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 4:03 pm | #

Keep it up, Nova. (That's what she said, too.) They provide a good in-context break from our dismal reality.

Thank you, by the way. I appreciate your literary contributions as well as your other contributions.

Look on the bright side of life losr&confused

EvilHenryPaulson | 02.09.09 - 4:17 pm | #

In a 'Life of Brian' sort of a way...

\tDoes anyone feel like I am spamming doing these stories? I will stop.
nova | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 4:03 pm | #

No, but could you make them like those "Choose your own adventure" stories?  For example,

To talk to the girl, turn to page 30.
To jump out the window, turn to page 42.

scone writes:
And I see Hoops is back.

I'm posting part time while I wait for the stimulus plan's hoopajoop buyback provisions to pass. Then I retire to the bahamas.

dryfly
Every day I wake up and tell myself the fact that I'm moving incredibly fast and yet my feet remain on the ground instead of spinning off into space is a great thing

Hoopajoops LTD

Have you seen any notable shifts in the types of deals since last October?

ova, throw it up on afterthecrash!

I would like to see the current "recession" numbers compared to the 1929 to 1940 "recession."
Morocco Bama | 02.09.09 - 4:19 pm | #

It'll be a few more years before the correlation is unmistakable.

The interviewer obviously didn't read Fooled by Randomness where Taleb deomnstrates that getting rich is more a byproduct of one's luck than one's preceived skill.
TCA | 02.09.09 - 4:14 pm |

Working long hours, risk-taking, being proficient and personality are how most become rich. I've noticed the "luck" part is not quitting and finally hitting the right thing at the right time.

Chickened out a little and sold covered calls on 1/2 my FAZ & SRS. Just in case Timmay & our elected officials really toss the taxpayer under the bus.

Yes, of course. Sorry, I thought the units were understood.
scone | 02.09.09 - 4:26 pm | #

NP; I figured it must be thousands.

Ironically, I still insist on having a couple of papers delivered to my door even though I never really read them. I just like having them around.
ac | 02.09.09 - 4:24 pm | #

They are great for starting fires in the wood stove. Or trash cans on the street corner I suppose - not there yet. Something newspapers should remind readers - can't do any of that with online content.

Then there are the bird cages and fish heads. Uses aplenty for newspapers.

EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Hoops, any change in deals across your desk since October?

Absolutely. Every single deal I'm working on is nothing more than obligatory motions required to secure government bailout money. Along the lines of, "See we restructured this way," or "see we're complying that way" all for no economic purpose other than to qualify for government dough. In the past, the frivolous deals I'd see would be recombining or buying or selling of companies for the purpose of loading up on debt or taking advantage of the free flowing financing. Now that the trough is government-based, the deals shift accordingly.

The last big, legitimate deal we had going, in fact the only one in the wall street journal for around two weeks, died several months ago. Haven't seen REAL business deals happening since.

I'm very impressed by the stubborn and continuing resistance of the DJ Industrial Average

I'd be more impressed if they didn't keep swapping out companies to make the DJIA look "stubborn and resistant".
.

They are great for starting fires in the wood stove. Or trash cans on the street corner I suppose - not there yet. Something newspapers should remind readers - can't do any of that with online content.

Then there are the bird cages and fish heads. Uses aplenty for newspapers.

Likewise with the dog gets unruly or the cat won't stop scratching the sofa.

The interviewer obviously didn't read Fooled by Randomness where Taleb deomnstrates that getting rich is more a byproduct of one's luck than one's preceived skill.
TCA | 02.09.09 - 4:14 pm |

Working long hours, risk-taking, being proficient and personality are how most become rich. I've noticed the "luck" part is not quitting and finally hitting the right thing at the right time.
lama | 02.09.09 - 4:26 pm | #

Yup - if you wanna be rich you gotta start out as the 'lucky sperm' not the 'hard working sperm'.

Sigh.

Then there are the bird cages and fish heads. Uses aplenty for newspapers.
dryfly | 02.09.09 - 4:27 pm | #

Also useful for supressing weed growth in your "Victory Garden"

....can someone summarize the 3,278 comments since I left this morning?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 4:28 pm | #

Excellent, the market's down this morning?

Why is the market up?

Look, the market's going down again!

Here comes kermit!!

Some day, there's gonna be a circuit breaker day!

Same as any other day, C&C.

....can someone summarize the 3,278 comments since I left this morning?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 4:28 pm | #

Morocco Bama(Irritating) writes:
Shit
Morocco Bama | 02.09.09 - 4:29 pm | #

"Shit." He meant everyone's last 3,278 comments, not just your last 3,278 comments.

dryfly, If I were you, I'd be scared that we think alike.
Elvis | 02.09.09 - 4:30 pm | #

Ya except you think faster.

....can someone summarize the 3,278 comments since I left this morning?
crispy&cole
scone | 02.09.09 - 4:31 pm | #

 DRINK!

The interviewer obviously didn't read Fooled by Randomness where Taleb deomnstrates that getting rich is more a byproduct of one's luck than one's preceived skill.
TCA

He's also followed that up, though, by admitting it's not entirely luck.

For example, in the hedge fund industry (unlike the mutual fund industry) there is a strong correlation between a fund manager's past performance and future performance.

I.E. there's quite a bit of data that supports the notion that there's a group of managers that seem to have the ability to consistently outperform.

You don't see this in mutual funds, of course, because there's no performance based incentive structure - a skilled manager has no reason to be at a mutual fund.

....can someone summarize the 3,278 comments since I left this morning?
crispy&cole

Make sure you turn to page 42, not page 30.

cnbc Jane Wells interview from securitization forum - "We have transactions on AAA top traunchs of CDOs for 3 cents on the dollar. That's where they're trading"

Timmay, THAT'S THE PRICE WE'LL PAY. NOT A PENNY MORE!!
bearly | 02.09.09 - 4:36 pm | #

Too bad Timmy's in charge of deciding that, and not you.

Is there any way to add a plugin to a wordpress blog that will automatically nab (and credit) posts from other blogs? I'm thinking of turning afterthecrash into a sort of CR Community Blog aggregator service, for all the good commenters here with blogs that update too infrequently to visit regularly.

"We have transactions on AAA top traunchs of CDOs for 3 cents on the dollar. That's where they're trading"

That's a relief, because for a second there I thought that our entire financial system could be insolvent.

\t"We have transactions on AAA top traunchs of CDOs for 3 cents on the dollar. That's where they're trading"
Elmer Fudd | 02.09.09 - 4:38 pm | #

See?   It's true.  There's a price everything will sell at!

ge up 13.87% in the day time. Supposed to be the stable but boring conglomerate immune to the weather.

just put it out of its misery

"Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.09.09 - 3:45 pm |"

Funny how people just sort of look the other way on that.....how about we add in the over $2t in shit the fed is carrying on it's books too. Didn't have that any period of time that "comparison" is used.

Ciao
MS

HOA definition:

Abbreviations.com

"Michael,
Herrmann Forecasting LLC was interviewed with an estimate of ~750k in construction if I remember correctly

There were probably more than 12mn illegal immigrants in the US at peak
The Christian Science Monitor | csmonitor.com ussc.html
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.09.09 - 3:45 pm |"

We've all pretty much agreed that a big part of the housing bubble resulted from Greenspan's ultra low interest rates to fight the dotcom bust setting off another bubble

The mechanism isn't in question. The motivation is, though. There's little doubt in my mind that Greenspan was trying to shift aggregate interest payments downward to match real economic growth. However, most of the population is conditioned by fifty years of inflationary expectations to act on.... inflationary expectations.

They instead of paying down and consolidating their position, they leveraged up even more and bought more real estate.
.

"Michael,
Herrmann Forecasting LLC was interviewed with an estimate of ~750k in construction if I remember correctly

There were probably more than 12mn illegal immigrants in the US at peak
The Christian Science Monitor | csmonitor.com ussc.html
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.09.09 - 3:45 pm |"

By my educated guess, we have 6.7 million illegal aliens who lost their job in addition to the 3.8 legal Americans that became unemployed last year.

Alex Chekholko

Thanks, and thanks for all the kind words.

"The losses on a house defaulting are much more than the value of the house itself"

That why this is much worse then they really are allowing to be seen.

Reality sucks when leverage is involved. Too bad no one really wants to admit that.

Ciao
MS

You know it is a depression when soiled and dirty is the new black.

"Court-appointed trustee, lawyer Irving Picard, said in court last Wednesday that $946 million has been recovered so far from Madoff's firm to be disbursed to defrauded customers.
EvilHenryPaulson"

I look forward to the court distributing his testicles to defrauded customers.

Thanks for the info on the treasuries vs. bonds thing. The Stable Value A Wachovia print out says they are corporate bonds (AID, State St., BOA, and more). I was wondering if he was trying to mislead me by stating they were "treasuries". Now I am pretty sure he was. Appreciate the insights. Thanks to the people on this blog. It has saved me a lot of money.

Wow! I see someone else helped Prairie. Thread's movin' fast.

Michael,
Remember not illegal immigrants come from south of the border, eg Eastern Europe.

Also keep in mind there are a lot of families without any official residency. The kids won't be fired because they are in elementary school.

Hard to tell, but the data on remittances was way down. The reverse flow is not as well tracked because it's never been important in the past

Broward, I didn't mean to imply Greenspan deliberately engineered a housing bubble. He was trying to fix the dotcom crash. At the time nobody except the Austrians thought excessively low interest rates could cause massive destructive bubble without massive consumer inflation. (Although - they should have!) It was a mistake, albeit a monster one.

I am distressed that I've heard so few mainstream economists say that 1% interest rates were a mistake, even the few like Krugman who spotted the housing bubble as it was going on. The only one that I've seen is German Finance Minister Steinbrueck.

We've all pretty much agreed that a big part of the housing bubble resulted from Greenspan's ultra low interest rates to fight the dotcom bust setting off another bubble. It's telling that in spite of the massive scale of the last mostly-housing bubble it never convincingly ended the 2001 recession. I hope that decision makers consider this fact as they attempt to blow another bubble to fix this crash.
Fair Economist

It's hard for me to imagine another bubble being successfully blown.

My concerns now about stimulative policy measures center more around the credibility of the financial system and the solvency of developed economies as Buiter warns about .

Admittedly people like Krugman may be correct in saying that "we can't afford not to spend". But the doesn't mean that the people who say "we can't afford to spend" aren't also correct.

They can both be correct, which is a nice way of saying there are no options.

The accusations about this kind of fatalism being counter-productive might also be fair, but in the wake of a bubble and years of "irrational exuberance", any kind of optimism is going to be a tough sell, whether or not it's warranted.

So I think the focus has to be on developing credibility as a means to eventual recovery.

I don't see how it can be any other way, but then I'm very small minded.

POIC-

Shhhhh!!! Don't tell anyone..

Ciao
MS

"So I think the focus has to be on developing credibility as a means to eventual recovery."

Which breeds confidence. Which breeds investment. Which ultimately could breed recovery.

Fair Economist. This means this is Wachovia's practice, to misinform people. I called Wachovia a year ago to inquire about this particular investment fund, and that person said "it is invested in treasuries". At the time I knew next to nothing, and so thought he meant U.S. treasuries, and so felt comforted. Good thing I tried to educate myself. Thanks again.

Another tidbit from the employment ratio analysis

2001-present is off the charts at 1.95, but I think in this case the metric is overstating the case, probably due to the dotcom bubble raising the employment ratio.
Fair Economist

Very interesting metric... thanks.

No more mr. bad bank:

Bank Bailout and Rescue: Bad Bank 2.0 Now in Treasury Plan - CNBC 

The local taco joints seem to have a lost less Spanish these days. The food is still damn good, though.

@mp
But when the AH is in-op the turn co-ordinator will get you out of the clouds.

"Alo writes:
No more mr. bad bank:"

Mr. Bad Bank, we hardly knew you. Good riddance.

Prarie-Dog -- I doubt it was willful misinformation. You probably talked to some 401K customer service rep flunkie who isn't equipped to tell you anything more than what you can already read at the 401K website.

Alo writes:
No more mr. bad bank:

Alo | 02.09.09 - 5:13 pm | #

So what the hell is Geithner going to announce tomorrow?

"Timmayy, Tim Tim Timmay, Timmmmmaaahhhh?"

How can the plans still be changing? I mean, you really do have a plan. Don't you??

"As an economics major who is good with numbers, I would rather see Maya Angelou or Jon Stewart in charge of fiscal policy than a scientist."

Right. That didn't work out so well with LT Capital, did it?