Took my profits on SRS at the end. I'm happy.

Not cliff diving at all, CR! No, we finished off the lows- our broken corpse got caught by the ledge.

Can I short my 401k?

Nice work CR, as always. Mind if we "talk up" your bank survey form to TPTB in the hinterlands?

Maybe that means it's a better plan than I thought.

The world's most expensive nothingburger.

"WITHDRAW YOUR MONEY FROM THEIR CROOKED BANKS, THERE IS NO OTHER FORM OF PROTEST THAT WORKS."

....you seem to forget the "don't pay them another dime" form also available to you....

Krugman says he hopes the vague BARF plan is really a trojan horse to sneak through a better plan.
comrade dope albrt | 02.10.09 - 4:11 pm | #

By the time the econeratti will realize Obama is an empty suit, we'll be wearing barrels and potato sacks trying to sell apples on the corner.

Same thing happened on Jan 20, no?

I think the plan is to get the actual value of the financial/banks marked to market....

So Secretary Geithner scored well today.

We just need four more power moves down like this and we will have a bottom to work up from.

Reality bites. The reality is most banks are insolvent, many homeowners are technically bankrupt, and smart consumers are parking there money into savings and giving the finger to worthless crap made in China to sustain our unsustainable lifestyle.

Time for a reality based economy. Too bad the O man and his sidekick the V man won't lay the hammer down and kill the zombie banks. But there is HOPE.

BAC -18.43%
Oh my god…Timmay killed Kenny. Bastard!

looks like the banks are imploding on their ow

re: Mortgage rates
Advertisement on CR that I see (Canadian credit union)
5yr: floating 3.8%, fixed 4.4%

Hmmm... another theory:

Crash the bank prices for a nice, 'cheap' nationalisation that the media will be crying out for?

"facing billions of dollars of debt."

story repeated over and over again

and how's that going to work out for the gov?

Mark this day as evidence that markets are at least SOMETIMES rational.
dryfly | 02.10.09 - 4:20 pm | #

Broken clock, twice a day, yada yada yada.  Be careful drawing lines through one datapoint.

You can always tell what side Barry Ritholtz is on by his posts.
Anonymous | 02.10.09 - 4:19 pm | #

And why not?  Blogs are by definition opinion pieces.  For good or bad there is no journalistic etiquette.

"Broken clock, twice a day, yada yada yada. Be careful drawing lines through one datapoint."-Eric

Hmmm... sarcasm I hope, coming from a guy who said today was gonna be an up day.

"over time other countries are going to get tired of lending us money and eventually the party's going to be over"

over leverage meets the rollover problem

That ProLogis story is expected. Ability to keep tenants is overrated when your development/acquisition cost are twenty times beyond the rents you get by keeping the tenants. Moreover, when the tenants go BK, it is not possible to keep them. Massive expansion and massive buying during the bubble will bite you on the ass every time.

"Could you imagine policy that reflected reality?"ARW

no

Why in the world did they make such a fuss about announcing a plan when they didn't have one?

I don't get it?

Obama better get his act together, pronto.

Hmmm... sarcasm I hope, coming from a guy who said today was gonna be an up day.
Bluto | 02.10.09 - 4:26 pm | #

Heh.... never happier to be wrong!

"Crash the bank prices for a nice, 'cheap' nationalisation that the media will be crying out for?
DreadLetterDay | 02.10.09 - 4:20 pm | #

Why? Don't they just wipe out the common stock shareholders anyway?"

There's more than one way to nationalise.

For example, that evil commie in Venezuela actually PAID a fair MARKET rate for a bank back in the summer.

No really.

"Bummer. I really wanted that Snickers bar."

Go talk to the Geico Gekko.

Nostrovia,

Reality won't set in until there's only 4 degrees of separation between you and a guy who's lost his job.

Um, I don't know where you live or work, but for everybody else in America, it's now one degree.

"Um, I don't know where you live or work, but for everybody else in America, it's now one degree.
Markel"

It is a cold Winter this year with no sight of Spring.

Gotta love that pork!

There are lots of angles to criticize the stimulus package. But crying "pork" really marks somebody who's riding the short bus.

"The head of the IRS cannot pay his own taxes."

Cannard...smoke and mirrors.

Ask instead what you expect of the guy who helped Jamie gorge on Bear.

Nostrovia,

Krugman and the Democratic faithful are always waiting around for some mystery plan which is the exact opposite off everything the govt is doing.

It is way biting and incisive to criticize a columnist for saying the exact opposite thing he says in his columns.

Eric writes:

Heh.... never happier to be wrong

...not me, I took some severe pain.

Markel,

"There are lots of angles to criticize the stimulus package. But crying "pork" really marks somebody who's riding the short bus."

Really, zho critizizng zhe pork is Verbotten?

What about long pig then?

Nostrovia,

Jimmie,

I have never really believed it was the case that most people don't understand that you can't spend more than you make year after year without having to face a readjustment. Obama wasn't able to dodge that question because it was too refreshingly direct, but he still hemmed and hawed before acknowledging this fundamental truth. If only his announced policies were aligned with this understanding of that truth, but they aren't. So, we get more stimulus bullshit day after day that completely contradicts the answer he gave to that question.

"think of it this way: even if it goes up more, you've already won this round.

cheers to you for a great trade.
s.tristero"

Thanks. It is all about having money for booze and women. Since women are practically free these days, I really only need enough money to build a still and the supplies to keep it running. Today's trade allows that.

Why in the world did they make such a fuss about announcing a plan when they didn't have one?

Obama better get his act together, pronto.
Bob_in_MA | 02.10.09 - 4:30 pm | #

LOL - I was thinking the same thing - better to come right out with a loose 'strategy' than a 'plan'. Hockey & basketball rely on 'strategies' [say a type of forecheck scheme in hockey or full court press in basketball] vs US football where everything is scripted into precise 'plays' [plans]. TG & Team O made it sound like we were going to get 'precise' and it was anything but.

I think the market [and economic public in general] would have felt better had they come right out and said: "No we don't have plays drawn up - but we are going in two deep on the forecheck and hit anything that moves against what looks like to us to be troubled if not insolvent banks  - let's see how they respond to THAT kind of pressure... er stimulus..." Basketball people will have to come up with their own silly sports analogy but you get the idea.

Instead the told us there was going to be a plan and no plan was evident. The Detroit Lions did that all last year... and they were surprised the market lacked confidence?

Misean - long pig is too subtle, except if you either a) come from downunder or b) are an anthro dude/dudette.

Actually maybe teh googles or teh wiks would help out. Haven't tried.

C

I listened to Obama work the audience in Ft. Myers today. I think he has the potential to become an excellent politician, and perhaps even a leader. But the situation is so daunting.
Pavel Chichikov | 02.10.09 - 4:28 pm | #

I agree. I watched his body/face language during this press conference, and when he was on "safer" ground, he really relaxed and seemed to connect in some way. But when he was on shaky ground, or talking about points he maybe had less confidence in, he tensed up and looked very grim. If he can find ways to sandwich the grim parts in the confident parts, maybe he can connect enough with "the public(?)" to buy time for a solution to present itself.

Letting the banks choke of BARF might also be a good ploy, in getting people to beg for nationalization. That's a great kindergarten teacher trick, get the kids to want to do something  "icky" that is good for them in the long run, or at least good for the control of chaos.

"Instead the told us there was going to be a plan and no plan was evident. The Detroit Lions did that all last year... and they were surprised the market lacked confidence?

dryfly"

The problem is there is no politically acceptable plan. If you take the politics out of the politians, they would likely be able to formulate a reasonable plan. That is why the best way to ruin a good man and a good idea is to politicize them.

Average Americans need direction.
green | 02.10.09 - 4:44 pm |

I had a women at work ask me today "What should I do?" I told her have some cash, a few days of food, pay down the bills.

I have no clue. I know her, and her husband are in the 2% salary range. They should have resources that a lot of people can only dream about.

He has had enough time to figure out how to lead. But he is a community organizer and will never be able to lead. Buy pork.

I know most here have probably done much better than me since the start of this (up about  25% - was up 50% at one point), but in talking with people abou this crash, I don't know one single person in real life that has not lost at least 40% of their retirement saving in the past year.  Even people I personally warned.  Not one.

I'll say it again, if you're not losing money in this market, you're winning.

They should have resources that a lot of people can only dream about.
nova | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 4:49 pm | #

I work with so many people like that. And when you lead them to water (i.e. point them to resources for self-education) they refuse to drink. They want hand-holding, and ponies from heaven. No work, no thinking, just some magic trick.

scone,
Why doesn't everyone move to the Dakotas?

"I had a women at work ask me today "What should I do?" I told her have some cash, a few days of food, pay down the bills."

Remember the generator and some gas and a water purifier and a gun and some chickens and ammo and silver bars buried. And capital preservaton.

I had a women at work ask me today "What should I do?" I told her have some cash, a few days of food, pay down the bills.
nova | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 4:49 pm | #

Show her some of your stories, that'll cheer her up.

"Um, no. Some states are in big trouble, other states, not so much. Check out this map"

Instead of checking out the sacred map, why don't you drive there and ask. You will get a different story that the sacred map.

TALF/SRS I didn't take any profits on SRS, letting it ride. Dodd just called Geitner on bailouts for CRE but not for schools. Dodd " I find it hard to believe we aren't spending any money for schools but are going to bail out strip malls" he chuckled.

CRE is going to pared back or pulled out of this program. Not enough money to save them anyway.

sdtfs | 02.10.09 - 4:54 pm

I did. Her reply was she was going make sure her bikes tires were inflated.

Pavel,

There was no reason to assume what he was thinking- he told you. One only needs to read the text of his full answer to that question- he tried not to give that clear, short answer at the end, but that answer had to come out in order not to sound like a bullshit artist. I credit him for acknowledging it since many politicians and pundits still won't acknowledge it. He clearly understands the fundamental problem- an understanding most adults and more than a few children firmly grasp since it is just plain common sense. I wish his announced policies were aligned with this understanding.

If he would boldly start governing that way, he would have my complete, unalloyed support, and I know I am not the only one.

EHP / Sparkle - fascinating weightings, and great for the window-dressers at the close.

C

"I was just up there late last week on biz - sure doesn't look like a recession up there to me... but then how would 'empty' look if it was in recession?

dryfly"

Trust me. North Dakota is getting crushed by the drop in oil prices. To be fair, South Dakota always has Mt. Rushmore, so they are safe from any kind of economic crisis.

When did radical right-wing conservative extremists become "centrists"?
walter map | 02.10.09 - 4:58 pm | #

Circa 1980.

scone,
Why doesn't everyone move to the Dakotas?
EvilHenryPaulson
.
Actually (snark off), the states with the worst unemployment have a strong connection to the housing debacle and the construction industry implosion. The worst numbers are in areas where the two overlap, like the far West and parts of the southeast. For example, most of the carpet made in America comes from one town: Dalton, Georgia. There are similar concentrations elsewhere, i.e., housing in Bend, Oregon tanks, and the pine woods window sash makers also tank. It's a one-two punch.

This will be on tonight's Nightline:

TERRY MORAN: There are a lot of economists look at these banks and they say all that garbage that's in them renders them essentially insolvent. Why not just nationalize the banks?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, you know, it's interesting. There, there are two countries who have gone through some big financial crises over the last decade or two. One was Japan, which never really acknowledged the scale and magnitude of the problems in their banking system and that resulted in what's called "The Lost Decade." They kept on trying to paper over the problems. The markets sort of stayed up because the Japanese government kept on pumping money in. But eventually, nothing happened and they didn't see any growth whatsoever.

Sweden, on the other hand, had a problem like this. They took over the banks, nationalized them, got rid of the bad assets, resold the banks and a couple years later, they were going again. So you'd think looking at it, Sweden looks like a good model. Here's the problem -- Sweden had like five banks. [LAUGHS] We've got thousands of banks. You know, the scale of the U.S. economy and the capital markets are so vast and the, the problems in terms of managing and overseeing anything of that scale, I think, would -- our assessment was that it wouldn't make sense. And we also have different traditions in this country.

Obama: No 'Easy Out' for Wall Street - ABC News

What also got me was the look on her face. People who have charisma and a plan, anykind of plan, are going to have them lining up to take direction.
nova | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 4:57 pm | #

I read some article or blog piece, Kunstler maybe?, about magical thinking and how it takes the forefront in times of crisis. We have so many potential fault lines in the US, and so many "leaders" looking to take advantage of them. The religious ones creep me out the most.

I can see how dark ages get started.

Comrade Terry | 02.10.09 - 5:01 pm

I never saved them. They are really coffee stories. I drink a lot of coffee, write a bit, come off the coffee, and forget about it.

scone,
But it's a dry cold!

(I was hoping to provoke a net federal tax contribution discussion... going to be a tough revenue year for the government, could boost borrowing more than planned)
EvilHenryPaulson
.
Sorry, Evil, I can't help you with that. Construction, yes, tax policy, not my forte. I sit at your feet for wisdom.

It's an old con man's trick...called sleight of hand. Didn't cha' know?

I do have fresh disaster porn up. The Bike Man story continues. Actually saving them this time.

Trust me. North Dakota is getting crushed by the drop in oil prices. To be fair, South Dakota always has Mt. Rushmore, so they are safe from any kind of economic crisis.
Elvis | 02.10.09 - 4:59 pm | #

I was in the Fargo - Grand Forks - Jamestown area and it was in pretty good shape yet. My guess is Williston is in not so good shape but I don't get out there much.

So Dak also has corn, beans, beef and if corn & beans stays reasonably high it should do okay too.

But there are more people in the Twin Cities than No Dak and So Dak combined and probably more people in Orange County than all of Minnesota. Maps can be deceiving in more than one way.

Um, CR's posts show widening unemployment. December was bad enough, January and Feb have been bloodbaths.

OK, once someone starts dismissing Krugman's criticism of Iraq because "everybody was doing it," I know to hit the scroll button.

The MSM take:

NEW YORK – Investors are frustrated with the government's latest bank bailout plan — and showing it by unloading stocks.

Traders and investors said the lack of specifics from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on how the government will direct more than $1 trillion in public and private support was troubling.

My take:

Banksters and others on Wall Street were frustrated with the plan announced by Geithner since it promised them neither money for nothing nor chicks for free.

Sinomania!
Vancouver's harbor and ports have been doing steady business, same with rail cars carrying dry bulk exports.

Noticeably less than at peak last summer, but around the normal level of 1 and 2 years prior if I had to venture a guess.

On another regional anecdotal note, my expectations of increased gang fighting seems to be bang on. Less money flowing in, means hostile mergers.

scone, what do you do for a living?
nades
.
I'm retired. I used to work in construction, then systems integration/software with house flipping as a sideline.

"Thats what I thought. I thought he wrote that they were not confined to certain industries but rather thru-out the whole economy...."

I think it is called systematic.

"with house flipping as a sideline.
scone"

It is usually called a noose, not a sideline.

"with house flipping as a sideline.
scone"

Wow, a strong woman. I have a problem opening the jelly.

green(Unrated) writes:

Average Americans need direction.

#

I'd suggest Dmitri Orlov.

I got out several years ago. I'm in what I thought would be my retirement home now. But I'm getting the itch to move again. It's an addiction, what can I say.

Remember, this is an arch pragmatist talking. American traditions can change and are changing. The President of the US just put nationalization into the national debate. He didn't endorse it. He leaned against it.
joe shmoe | 02.10.09 - 5:10 pm | #

That could also be taken as a bit of a 'shot across the bow' in some circles. Paging Mr. Lewis...

scone,

"But I'm getting the itch to move again. It's an addiction, what can I say."

That'll go well with the hunter-gatherer future coming to theaters near you.

Nostrovia,

Wouldn't it be kind of a bummer to be a European bank if the US did nationalize? If they thought that was going to happen - would they try to be first in the pond?

It's not about strength, it's about opposable thumbs and little grey cells.
scone | 02.10.09 - 5:15 pm | #

I got two of the three....

Wouldn't it be kind of a bummer to be a European bank if the US did nationalize? If they thought that was going to happen - would they try to be first in the pond?
nova | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 5:15 pm | #

No.

Geithner doesn't deny... Senator predicting 1 in 4 mortgages in foreclosure by 2014

Anyone else hear this...

I don't want to even think what would have happened if McCain/Palin was our president.

I think the revisionists will write out any mention of Bush or his legacy.

LAM,
Well if you expect a 40% of mortgage holders to be negative equity before then as I do, and given the economy, and the financial incentive to default...

1 in 4 is not unreasonable, especially when you consider one individual being able to default multiple mortgages

They assumed such a thing could never happen, so they didn't have to allocate a price to the risk of it happening, which caused it to happe

Geither getting grilled for no details today...stock market decline

Pres. Obama will be live soon...

Absolutely. I had a friend do that most of his working life - he only stopped doing it during the 2005-2007 period where he couldn't buy property cheap enough to guarantee flipping for a profit. He's back at it again in the Naples/Sarasota area.

dryfly
.
The downside is constant disruption and mess, which stresses the SO relationship. It's the drywall dust that really bites-- it's in your nose all the time. Make sure the electronics innards are vacuumed regularly, the drywall dust is a good insulator, so they get fried.

Nike may cut workforce by up to 4% as part of restructuring

But you're feckless and I am a shmoe.

What could we know????

Best grin of the day, Joe!

The downside is constant disruption and mess, which stresses the SO relationship.
scone | 02.10.09 - 5:28 pm | #

This will surprise you [not] - he was divorced.

I think the AFC would have beat the NFC is the Pro Bowl this year if the game were played on the Main Land.

UBS, Deutschebank, and Credit Suisse are all closer to a yet unannounced major bailout or nationalization than any bank in America
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 5:19 pm | #

I disagree.  There is utmost resistance by the Center/Left in Switzerland especially to such a notion.  For various reason some of which we discussed a while ago.

I have found 2 truths about economic problems...

1) People hate you when you warn them about oncoming disaster

2) They hate you even MORE when they realize you were right

Stating that the financial system is still on a verge of collapse without giving any explanation is quite irresponsible.
Ju | 02.10.09 - 4:44 pm | #

Ju, you are new here right, about 4 years of explainations in the comments and archives

RE,
Oh I agree that the Swiss abhor the idea of bailing out banks. I should have just said that those banks will be pushed to a failure point first. There is no support for the bailout DB will need either, but I would guess that Germany bails them out like Commerzbank and Hypo

Tomorrow's plan is to talk up the base for the issue of the 10-year bond, secure funding, build for Thursday's long bond issue, and then sit back and wonder really what the fk can we put together that makes sense and has a snowflake's in hell of suceeding.

That's my guess.

But I don't feel very perky about it.

C

PS more like this:
YouTube - IGGY POP and the STOOGES "search and destroy"

Tomorrow's plan is to talk up the base for the issue of the 10-year bond, secure funding, build for Thursday's long bond issue, and then sit back and wonder really what the fk can we put together that makes sense and has a snowflake's in hell of suceeding.

Counterpointer | 02.10.09 - 5:39 pm | #

Don't forget, they have a Bank Holiday on Monday to play with.

"if the housing market continues to deteriorate"

This won't happen. That is why so many people are buying foreclosures right now. The housing market has bottomed. Trust buyers of foreclosures. They know.

Eric - here they do. But this sh!tpile is global. It will not stop a Euro / Japan reaction.

I smell fuses burning.

C

Counterpointer
The fireworks in one direction will distract us from the towering inferno behind us, temporarily

The housing market has bottomed. Trust buyers of foreclosures.

Elvis has jumped the snark.

C,

"I smell fuses burning."

Yes, the cascading cross default fuses.

These prize ID 10 T's ain't running around like squirrels with their heads cut off for nothing.

Nostrovia,

Feckless,

"Elvis has jumped the snark."

ROFL...+1

Nostrovia,

scone, That is my same experience living and remodel that is where I picked one up. Helped a lot but not perfect. My drywall is done and almost the whole project is just six years late.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU
.
So you're ahead of schedule, then?