Here is a quote from a reader of the Alea Blog about the bailout plan that I thought was quite good:
Just off the top of my head
Advocates use of a public-private solution as though the Fannie/Freddie debacle never happened.
Advocates use of stress-testing to measure bank soundness as though the failure of VaR never happened.
Advocates limiting the purchases to safe AAA securities as though the breakdown of rating agency risk models never happened.
Defines accountability and transparency as the volume of bank loans made, not their creditworthiness, as though the collapse of underwriting standards never happened.
Also very short on detail for something labeled a fact sheet.
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt wont be eroded by reckless policies, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.
The U.S. should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way, Yu, who now heads the World Economics and Politics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in response to e-mailed questions yesterday from Beijing. He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.
Americans clearly demonstrated today that they have not the slightest clue how to solve their crisis. But it makes for good entertainment watching them stumble and fall flat on their nose!
When I look at our leaders I try and picture them as they would be in the military or on a labor crew.
Geither is the Lt. An excellent asskisser, and giver of good PowerPoint. He would always eat first, and better then his men. He would always have nice quarters.
Obama is an officer. A good Major with potential. Good to his men.
Paulson would have been the Foreman from hell. As an officer he would let the enlisted take huge casulties and then bragged about it.
H. Clinton is the perfect staff officer. Unfit for command of troops but great as an aide or chief of staff.
Americans clearly demonstrated today that they have not the slightest clue how to solve their crisis. But it makes for good entertainment watching them stumble and fall flat on their nose!
Werner
I think they know how to fix it but it is easier to use the taxpayer for a plunger.
"Bush is the general's son who only got into west point because his daddy was in charge"
Bush could not get in even with his daddy in charge. Of course, his daddy was not in charge at that point in W's life. But W would have been a dog catcher in a small town if not for his father's conections.
Timmy is just the lead squirrel - climbing up to the bird feeder dumping all the seed whilst the smart squirrels wait below for their bounty. The fix is in watch the markets rally in the next 48 hours
Sciurus writes:
Timmy is just the lead squirrel - climbing up to the bird feeder dumping all the seed whilst the smart squirrels wait below for their bounty. The fix is in watch the markets rally in the next 48 hours
Sciurus | 02.10.09 - 9:41 pm | #
Whole lotta people thinking that Sciurus. Might be right, but at some point they'll be very wrong.
"Bush could not get in even with his daddy in charge. Of course, his daddy was not in charge at that point in W's life. But W would have been a dog catcher in a small town if not for his father's conections."
The auction also drew robust demand from foreign central banks as indirect bidders took nearly 44 percent of the auction. At the prior auction the indirect bidders accounted for only 28 percent of the total. That outpouring of affection from the foreigners assuages fears that the chunkier size of the auction might cause a bit of spillage.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...I think they know how to fix it but it is easier to use the taxpayer for a plunger...
Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
I think the bursting of the housing bubble in spain, portugal and greece will effect germans much more than a couple of banks busting. many, many germans invested in RE there.
"Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value."
Hey now.. I work for a software company.. we actually make and sell products! So a few of us are economically productive
a larger portion of the "indirect bid" seems to have been accepted rather then what the primary dealers have submitted. I'm still trying to figure out why that happened. I can't (and don't) believe that suddenly foreign buyer's were just so eager to suck it up....especially if Benny Boy is going to cap them artificially.
Something smells with the way it's being reported and in the actual results of the 3 year.
The level of talk has changed again. Krugman on PBS Newshour tonight spoke openly of the possibility that some of the big U.S. banks are already insolvent. Nobody panicked or gasped or reacted much at all. Says a lot about how far we've come in the past month and what we can get our minds around.
Can anybody here hazard a guess as to how long before the Administration gets auditors in there and we start hearing their findings?
Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
Werner
~~~~~
Most of Western Europe actually ... the neoliberal game was played by all of the West ...
Actually Americans work longer hours than even the Japanese.
Germans just use the money they save on defense to mollify and encourage dolts such as yourself.
Clearly, there better be some bailout for more of the arrowheads or I'll be pissed!
In fact, Larry Flynt better get his $5 billion or this is just a travishamockery of a stimulus.
If you call this stimulus, you better follow through on that claim and I know of no better way than to give the porn industry the money they need to survive this crisis!
homedad43 writes:
If Geithner's the lead squirrel, how soon 'til he's eaten?
lead squirrels are not the smartest - in fact they are used by the other (smarter) squirrels to "stress test" the various obstacles humans deploy to keep them at bay.
mmckinl writes:
...Just wait until Deutsche Bank blows up ...
When, when finally does it blow up ?
I am waiting an eternity for that now, busily prognosticated by "born and breed dopes" and nothing happens.
It was quite dissapointing to see Deutsche Bank managing to generate a 4Q loss not more than a shabby american car-manufacturer (Ford) can. Quite dissapointing !
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
Werner
Funny Chrysler made good money until Daimler took over. I think that was a trick/cheat deal. I also drive a MBZ and have for years. There are a couple of Deutsche Bank REO's here in my small town. Lots of German companies in the rip off here. We are all global now in prosperity and debt. I read Speigal on line too. Germany has pain to deal with also.
That claim was discredited as false. Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
BS. He was absent without leave for the last several months of his service. He spent some of that time working on political campaigns, which is also not allowed for active military.
Who do you think discredited anything? Was it Rush Limbaugh or some other big fat Republican blowhard?
The issue arose at a time when an acknowledged draft dodger was serving as President, so it didn't seem like too big a deal at the time. BTW Al Gore actually served in Vietnam, though for a very short tour in a very safe location given his father's status.
It was quite dissapointing to see Deutsche Bank managing to generate a 4Q loss not more than a shabby american car-manufacturer (Ford) can. Quite dissapointing !
Werner
~~~~
The only thing that saved Deutsche Bank was a change in accounting rules ... otherwise it would have been bloody indeed.
I'm seeing far fewer Obama stickers on car bumpers these days, and I think as more people wash their cars this Spring, the vast majority of American's will be scraping off that memory...
Posted from previous thread -
Anonymous writes:
What is it about the concept of "economic warfare" that is not understood, especially when most of our own population is fighting for the other side?
Keep buying foriegn crap to save a few bucks.
Outsource jobs to save a few bucks.
Hide profits abroad to save a few bucks.
Cheat on your taxes to save a few bucks
Hire illegals to save a few bucks
Lobby congress to save a few bucks
Hire people to find loop-holes to save a few bucks
Rape the environment to save a few bucks
Sell your children and grandchildren into (financial) slavery to save a few bucks
Do whatever the hell it takes to save a few bucks, but don't actually save a few bucks, 'cause, well, that would be plain stupid.
Anonymous | 02.10.09 - 9:52 pm | #
Bearly, I am sure that Obama is not happy with Tim tonight. My bet is that Obama was aware of the lack of specifics, but expected more than was delivered.
I'm pretty sure it already has happened...but we (us schmucks) will never really be told what the results are/were.
This whole "stress test" is just another phrase designed to quell growing outrage. It's actually fairly easy to see what they hold in stated asset value but we will never get it broken down. If they did it would wipe them out immediately (thank you FASB for creating several levels of asset "classes")
We know it, they know it....but they don't know what "we" don't know....
Feckless Ness writes:
The level of talk has changed again. Krugman on PBS Newshour tonight spoke openly of the possibility that some of the big U.S. banks are already insolvent. Nobody panicked or gasped or reacted much at all. Says a lot about how far we've come in the past month and what we can get our minds around.
My god, Feckless. You can remember back to how things were a month ago! You're not an American, are you?
Werner - I feel for you, man. Somehow we Americans always seem to come out on top even though clearly we are such screw ups. We are lazy and stupid yet we invent everything and production per worker is the highest in the world. Call it the Homer Simpson syndrome, everyone thinks we are dumb asses but we have the best of everything.
That's why I'm sure the next few years will hurt, but somehow we will come out on top again.
I know it's the lead story on CNN.com right now, but it's probably the only thing that will get these clowns attention : the possibility that they will be held accountable for ruining this country.
We need a new party, one that has some fiscal responsibility. Hope they show up soon.
Cthulhu and the Mrs. would like to stop renting and actually buy in R'lyeh, but the numbers just aren't there yet. Particularly with employment uncertainty. But this $15K tax credit probably would have put us over the edge. If it doesn't go through, I expect we will wait a bit longer.
That doesn't mean that cutting it is bad policy - propping up house prices is a fool's errand - but I would personally prefer that it stay in.
"I know it's the lead story on CNN.com right now, but it's probably the only thing that will get these clowns attention : the possibility that they will be held accountable for ruining this country.
We need a new party, one that has some fiscal responsibility. Hope they show up soon.
Totally OT, but with all the economic chaos over the past year I've really grown to enjoy waking up to Carol Masser each morning. I pay more attention to her than my wife.
to follow up with your comment a few threads back.....I think all those "holidays" are the result of they're answer to the UK bank holidays...I mean what the hell is "foundation day" or "sports day"-that was a few months ago....
My daughter, a single mom, bought a tiny house that was cheaper than renting. With this tax credit, she will repair the property, which you otherwise couldn't afford to do.
Just because someone handed fake documents to Dan Rather doesn't mean the story was false.
It's a standard counter-intelligence action. The U.S. does it to discredit certain foreigners all the time. The fact that someone did it to discredit Dan Rather has no bearing on whether the underlying truth was being suppressed as a result.
"Werner - I feel for you, man. Somehow we Americans always seem to come out on top even though clearly we are such screw ups. We are lazy and stupid yet we invent everything and production per worker is the highest in the world. Call it the Homer Simpson syndrome, everyone thinks we are dumb asses but we have the best of everything.
That's why I'm sure the next few years will hurt, but somehow we will come out on top again."
LOL.. what makes you think Americans have anywhere near the highest standard of living?
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..."
And may all the rest of you have a pleasant sleep, full of dreams of dictatorial powers and Swedish models (whether they be male or female or points in between) at your beck and call....
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..."
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:09 pm
A quick google on Scott Wheeler should give you an idea of the level of crazy he brings to the table.
Oh come on dude, that's total bullshit, that speech was rehearsed and choreographed like a bad ballet; they have no clue what they are doing!
Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it.
Sportsfan, It was Dan's longtime assistant that likely fabricated the memo. But who cares if the underlying story is believable or not. Bush was a dope. His attendance at the airfield does not change that.
"A quick google on Scott Wheeler should give you an idea of the level of crazy he brings to the table."
The republicans are going to be out of power for a long time.. they are taking the approach that many out-groups foolishly take at first.. instead of moving left they are demanding MORE ideological purity... "we just weren't conservative enough"
They need a lot of time in the wilderness... neo-cons have been running that party since ronnie raygun.. goona take awhile to get rid of them all
Cthulhu and the Mrs. would like to stop renting and actually buy in R'lyeh, but the numbers just aren't there yet...
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
Shock. You haven't ravaged the town and eaten the neighbors yet?
China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt wont be eroded by reckless policies, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..." Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:09 pm | #
As I have said, it has been the Republican Party versus the American People for many years now.
Why would they stop just because they've earned their place in the minority?
mmckinl writes:
...Actually Americans work longer hours than even the Japanese...
...and the Germans, but longer houers does not mean "more".
I know the american working style, practiced it for 4 years myselfs (in the US of course!).
...Germans just use the money they save on defense to mollify and encourage dolts such as yourself...
No, they delivered that money to the AAA-cheating americans.
P.S. When will these lazy american occupiers finally leave Germany .
WWII is 60 years in the past, and these parasites are still here.
"Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it."
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
eo-cons have been running that party since ronnie raygun.. goona take awhile to get rid of them all
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:14 pm
Actually long before that. What, you thought Cheney, Rummy and the gang weren't around during the Nixon/Ford era? Who do you think brainstormed the Cold War?
I'm seeing far fewer Obama stickers on car bumpers these days, and I think as more people wash their cars this Spring, the vast majority of American's will be scraping off that memory...
I ♥ Timmy! | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:02 pm | #
But my "Wtf" and "worst president ever" stickers will stay on a long, long time.
My daughter, a single mom, bought a tiny house that was cheaper than renting. With this tax credit, she will repair the property, which you otherwise couldn't afford to do.
Did she already close on the house? I thought that the $15K tax credit only applies to houses purchased 1 year from the enactment of the stimulus.
"Actually long before that. What, you thought Cheney, Rummy and the gang weren't around during the Nixon/Ford era? Who do you think brainstormed the Cold War?"
True.. .but then again.. Nixon would be considered a raging Liberal by today's GOP
No, they delivered that money to the AAA-cheating americans.
P.S. When will these lazy american occupiers finally leave Germany .
WWII is 60 years in the past, and these parasites are still here.
Werner
~~~~
Glad to oblige ... but German girls wouldn't hear of it ...
Sportsfan - You're sounding a lot like those you criticize. Just sayin'. Joe | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Well, Joe, I've seen what happens when people don't speak up. I'll keep speaking up until I die or they cart me off sooner. I've had more than enough, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more.
Can anybody here hazard a guess as to how long before the Administration gets auditors in there and we start hearing their findings? Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
The auditors will be fresh out of school and have no clue as to what 90% of the securities on the bank's books are, much less how to value them.
The bankers will patiently explain to the little darlings how the cash flows work (according to the bankers' models) and proving that each instrument is money good. Therefore, the security should be priced at 120% of par and banker shit don't stink. The auditor, dearly wants to make senior next year and not get fired after this busy season, will nod her sweet little head, pretend to understand, and signoff on each price.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...Germany has pain to deal with also...
Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !
Maybe you should better emigrate to the back side of the moon, the world would be better off then.
"But in a sign of tough negotiations ahead, Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who helped broker the initial compromise, said she could not again vote for the measure if it stayed at the current size.
Although a vote for mccain was pretty much the same thing.....
In a sick way I almost wish the republicans still were in charge of everything so we could see exactly how well their gutting of the govt and massive tax cuts work
The bank struggled to offer sufficient evidence on Thursday to support its stubborn resistance to such rescue measures. None of its divisions churned out any meaningful profit in the fourth quarter, which led to a 3.9 billion euro, or $5 billion, net loss for the year. Big gains in foreign exchange and money markets were more than offset by disappointment from the core trading areas of credit and equity derivatives.
Whats more, Deutsche Bank seems to be exhausting its bag of available tricks to cut borrowing and sustain its capital ratios. A dividend cut released funds that had been accumulated for a higher payout, while a change in pension plan accounting freed up still more.
Some of the banks sizable balance sheet reduction also was a bit of smoke and mirrors. Its hefty leveraged loan exposure all but disappeared when two United States buyouts collapsed, and an additional 11 billion euros of assets vanished under new accounting rules.
Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !
Maybe you should better emigrate to the back side of the moon, the world would be better off then.
Werner
All you are saying is the Germans where not smart enough to spot it. Now hush before I start listing German companies here in America that have lived off the fat of free enterprise. Do you know where the first AC components and cruise controls for MBZ came from? Who invented electronic fuel injection? America has a lot of good German talent like me.
In a sick way I almost wish the republicans still were in charge of everything so we could see exactly how well their gutting of the govt and massive tax cuts work
I gotta say that there is no real answer. Lived in Sweden during the banking crisis. It was not pretty. Listened to my Grandfather who spoke about the Depression and it was not pretty.
I do think above all else, there is a sense that this problem is someones else's issue. And this will might not change.
I also think Wall Street and all of the egos that built this house of cards also feel it is someone else's problem.
Today's markets were worriesome. The bond market was, well, different.
I sense that like a dieing patient, the US does not want to go into the night but is being forced to accept some reality that is not of "their" doing.
It is hard to imagine a company see its sales and profits drop 40-76%..how will a society react if its economy contracted same.
"So did you read the color commentary here before seeing the tape?"
ROFL...
I'll have to try that one.
Well ya see, ya got this big pile of money over here. Now the defense needs to push it right up the middle, so you get the Treasury sect'y to fake it to a Ppifff over here...see...and then BAM!
Corporate BK is PORK. Tax deductibility of mortgage interest is PORK. Capital gains tax cut was PORK. How about a slice of bacon for the little guy? Goes well with cheese.
I think there is a larger question: Should we go to the market to borrow untold sums and will there be buyers? A huge assumption has been made that there is unlimited borrowing capacity...not so sure this is the case, at least at these interest levels
The trick however, is to ensure that the patient doesn't suffer from dementia in the process.
Better half has found with dying/chronically ill patients that temporarily stopping all but the most critical meds dramatically improves the functioning mental capacity.
Werner writes:
"Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !"
Considering the number of European financial institutions that have already failed or needed bailouts, this rant could be viewed as somewhat amusing from certain angles.
As for the responsible Teutonic economy, we'll see how a growth strategy based upon capital equipment exports is going to work out in the next couple of years.
NIKKEI cares less about Timmy's dance moves and futures prepare for VIX move back upward:
A break through 7,800 could finally spark a test of lows at 7,400. Otherwise, if 7,800 holds, we could see another bullish bounce off the lower trend line.
Basel Too writes:
omg. i'm just now watching Geithner's speech from this morning.
Stunned. Like it or not, the Secretary of the Treasury is now a political position, and he will clearly be overmatched.
I commented on the previous thread that I actually think that Paulson now looks like a better Treasury Sec than Geithner - more decisive and more focused. Geithner had two months and still has not come with a coherent proposal. Geithner also seems more afraid to inflict pain on bank shareholders (not that he is not succeeding, though)
I have a situation, sportsfan. My city council's about to give a 3-year contract to public safety employees, with a 3.5% raise each year. It's a big mistake. As the economy deteriorates, this contract will eventually force layoffs in other departments.
I'm debating whether to go to the mike myself, hire an attorney to do it on behalf of "an anonymous client," or recruit a CR type to get up and say why it's a fucking huge mistake.
I don't think I can do nothing. Somebody needs to stand up and say what's right.
"I commented on the previous thread that I actually think that Paulson now looks like a better Treasury Sec than Geithner - more decisive and more focused. Geithner had two months and still has not come with a coherent proposal. Geithner also seems more afraid to inflict pain on bank shareholders (not that he is not succeeding, though)"
So we'd rather have a decisive criminal who does the wrong thing.. but at least decisively?
I prefer timmy so far.. I'd rather they do nothing and have their hand forced.. I think the outcome will be better
A break through 7,800 could finally spark a test of lows at 7,400. Otherwise, if 7,800 holds, we could see another bullish bounce off the lower trend line. I â¥'s Timmy! | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:35 pm | #
PCA, is that you? Did you fall in love with Turbotim and change your handle?
homedad43 - watched the 10 year today with unusual focus...something went on which leads me to believe that quan. easing is happening now. This leads me to conclude appetite for more is waining and yields must move up...
I spent several years in Germany at a US law firm and really enjoyed my time there. The people were great.
Funny thing, though. When I negotiated merger agreements (in English), without fail the Germans on the other side of the table would confer among themselves in German, fully assuming that the stupid Americans didn't understand them. Things like "don't offer full price yet, let's lowball them first and see how they react".
"And Bush would have been AWOL . . . oh, wait, he was."
That claim was discredited as false. However, we probably would have been better off is he actually was AWOL. Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
The claim that alleged to be proof he was AWOL was false. Still, nobody has any proof that he did show up for duty. though you'd think somebody might just remember a future president of the USA. I would be making a false claim if I said I saw Reagan sworn in as President. That does not mean Reagan was not sworn in as President.
Darn you, CR. As to your comment about the proposed homebuyers tax credit, why should it be only the banks, insurance companies, and auto manufacturers who get to loot the Treasury? Why shouldn't some of us taxpayers be able to pick the pockets of our fellow taxpayers? We would be doing our part to stimulate the economy. As they in D.C. say, we got to spend spend spend.
re : mmckinl writes: Werner ~ On Deutsche Bank ...
Yes, I hear that stuff now for more than a year, and all they manage is a loss like a shabby american car-manufacturer.
But maybe you should quit reading that "General Betray-us" paper and you will see the world as it really is.
anon writes:
"I think this is a good read..repost from above
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasury Bond"
There's a reason why a lot of mid-level Chinese officials do not make it to high-level - they are complete blooming idiots.
Treasury Bonds are already guaranteed by the Treasury - they are guaranteed to pay out at par at maturity. What did they expect would happen when they bought more than $1TN in USD paper - they will get paid back in renminbi at a convenient exchange rate for valuation purposes? Would they like little pink ponies that defecate M&M's as well?
don't think I can do nothing. Somebody needs to stand up and say what's right. Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:35 pm | #
Then go and do it. Absolutely point out that locking in raises is foolhardy when they don't have revenues locked in. In this economy revenues could fall off a cliff. Moreover, this is a deflationary economy and the employees will do well just to keep the same salary. At the very least the contract should provide that, in the event of falling revenues, layoffs or other cutbacks in hours/overtime/etc should come first from the public safety employees or they should agree to a salary reduction to avoid that happening.
Stand up and speak your mind. You'll feel better about yourself whatever they do.
Mark to market exacerbates financial panics, and exacerbates the appearance of health during bubbles. Otherwise it is great in theory. Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 10:34 pm | #
In the late 1980s when I worked for a German insurance company, they had to calculate surplus by valuing securities at the lower of cost or lowest market price ever. They had a lot of unrealized gains squirreled away in the statutory balance sheet. .
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:16 pm | #
Valid argument, upto a point. But after 8 years of Bush, this was shaping up to be democratic victory whoever the candidate.
I read somewhere that the percentage of the votes for the democratic candidates (senate and congress) was slightly larger than what Obama got.
Back to the economic crisis, I don't think Obama and crew are 10 steps ahead. They have'nt faced up to the reality that the Banks are insolvent. Obama has a huge mandate and massive goodwill right now. Right now the total failure of our financial system can be laid at the foot of the previous administration. But a year from now Obama will own this mess and nationalisation will be much harder at that point.
IMHO the banks will end up getting nationalised. It's going to be cheaper and easier to do it now rather than in six months. The only other question is whether the taxpayers as owners get any say in how it's going to be run.
Yeah, homedad. I'm thinking about it. There's a gotcha, however. I work for the aforementioned public safety department. I could pretty much kiss my job goodbye. And I might as well get rid of my phone, 'cause ain't nobody ever gonna respond if I ever call 911 after that.
Just sayin' there's enough BS for both sides of the Atlantic ...
It will get ugly for everyone ... and yes the American Bankers screwed the pooch ... but don't blame Americans ... blame their government ... big difference ...
I've tried to go back to the treasury yields and have a basic understanding of what's happening, but to follow them realtime and have a concept of what's really happening?
I'm not there yet.
That said, the logic dictates - knowing that the big buyers are shifting to the short end of the spectrum - that it would start happening fairly soon.
And having been badly burned on TBT, I'm not certain.
What might you look for in real time to get a better feel?
USA=CCCP writes:
"Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it."
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:16 pm | #
ppk, I agree, he must nationalize soon. The GOP is hammering away as hard as they can with the "Socialism" meme. Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything...
Barley, didn't we know that already though?
Comrade Kristina
No I dont think so. It has been discussed and ideas floated. But the moves today says active intervention. Understand there was a load of stuff to go on sale today. But, the moves were so, well, different.
And now, we aim to go out to borrow more. Once the reality of lower rates and huge borrowing collide, it will be very different. The par value may not chnage but the cost to get there may prove painful at best and at worst not do-able.
In the case of Sweden, overnight rates reached nearly 100% to get the cash to finance current accounts let alone prospective liabilites.
Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything... Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:46 pm | #
CK - I'll bet the exact opposite is true. At that point, people will do anything.
Earnings and Incomes of Canadians Over the Past Quarter Century, 2006 Census: Earnings
Gap in earnings widens between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers
During the past quarter century, the earnings gap between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers widened significantly.
In 1980, recent immigrant men who had some employment income earned 85 cents for each dollar received by Canadian-born men. By 2005, the ratio had dropped to 63 cents. The corresponding numbers for recent immigrant women were 85 cents and 56 cents, respectively.
The gap widened even though the educational attainment of recent immigrant earners rose much faster than that of their Canadian-born counterparts, during this 25-year period.7
Earnings disparities between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers increased not only during the two previous decades, but also in recent years.
While recent immigrant men earned only about 63 cents for every dollar earned by their Canadian-born counterparts in 2005, the corresponding number was 67 cents in 2000.
Recent immigrant women also lost ground relative to their Canadian-born counterparts in recent years. In 2000, they earned 65 cents for each dollar received by Canadian-born women, compared to 56 cents in 2005.
The gap in median earnings between recent immigrant men and women and their Canadian-born counterparts widened both for individuals with a university degree and for those with no university degree.
bond guy 10:40 pm - Stupid or nor, these are not nice things to say before two important auctions - 10yr and 30yr - coming up in the next two days.
Mr. Geithner, your call has been answered.
China is re-asserting itself, not just worrying about the MTM value of its portfolio
Barley writes:
"homedad43 - watched the 10 year today with unusual focus...something went on which leads me to believe that quan. easing is happening now. This leads me to conclude appetite for more is waining and yields must move up..."
What happened today is that the market was severely unimpressed with the bailout plan, and people suddenly remembered that the economy is going into the tank. There were a lot of profitable Treasury shorts to cover.
But you're right - quantitative easing is going on. But it's been going on since fed funds hit the zero bound. The only change will be whether the Fed attempts to cap "long term" Treasury rates by buying a lot of "long-term" paper ("long term" may only be 3-year maturity paper in this case).
sportsfan writes:
Sportsfan - You're sounding a lot like those you criticize. Just sayin'.
Joe | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Well, Joe, I've seen what happens when people don't speak up. I'll keep speaking up until I die or they cart me off sooner. I've had more than enough, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more.
Geithner spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, where he studied hyperinflation.
In March 2008, he arranged the rescue and sale of Bear Stearns and later, in the same year, he is believed to have played a pivotal role in both the decision to bail out AIG as well as the government decision not to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy and to help fuel the fires of hyperinflation.
What might you look for in real time to get a better feel?
homedad43
I am expecting a burt. Yup a burp. Somebody somewhere will pause. Zero trades or moves in yields and very, very low volume. This will cause profound effects. Volume=appetite
I dont think it will be the Chinese but rather the Japanese.
Geithner spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, where he studied hyperinflation and tax evasion.
"ppk, I agree, he must nationalize soon. The GOP is hammering away as hard as they can with the "Socialism" meme. Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything..."
I think the opposite is true.. once the Shit really hits the fan people will agree to anything
I'll respond to that....I think they've done it already. 10y sure looks goosed to me. Sharp spike up and then this slow bleed off until the next sharp spike.
bondguy - thanks for the note on Barley's tbond action.
Ness - have been at town meeting where constituent did bring in retained lawyer but the emotional impact on most came from speaking residents.
Do understand your concern and honestly, would take the safe ground.
MS - know someone who took my advice to protect self and unfortunately didn't read the fine print that the "conservative" fund was still 70% stock. Lost a bundle...
And while the executives - coached by the lawyers and public relations consultants that sat behind them - offered up the apologies that were demanded of them, they also showed flashes of defiance as they claimed they were doing the best they could but were undone by the fall of Lehman and the panic that ensued - events that no one could have foreseen, they said.
It sounds familiar, and I have never quite gone with those who are satisfied to say only that these people have been wrong, or even that they were warned. The central problem for me is that they undertook a course of action without due consideration. When you're at this level of responsibility, you do not set a course without fully understanding the downside.
They are bad people, bad bankers. I don't accept that apologies are in order. Apologies are, under the circumstances, ridiculous.
"Why do we even care about Germany - let 'em deal with Russia themselves."
True, and they get to deal with Ireland, Greece, the UK, and now Iceland. Poland will need a little help too. Should keep them busy for a while.
And their capital equipment exports to China are cliff diving too. Too bad, so sad.
Auto exports will help though. Not.
Yup, everything is swell in Deutschland.
bond guy writes:
...As for the responsible Teutonic economy, we'll see how a growth strategy based upon capital equipment exports is going to work out in the next couple of years.
Ever heared that the Chineese have plenty of money with which they will enhance/industrialize their own economy (rather than burn it in Treasuries) and thus a need for said capital equipment ?
Much better investment for them as Treasuries are !!
Off to bed for us farmer-types. I'm between books, so I'll dust off my copy of Distant Mirror for another read. When I hooked up with my partner, she had a copy as well. How can you pass up a person who reads medieval disaster porn....
BTW, thanks Nova, for the good reads at afterthecrash.net
Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:46 pm | #
Precisely. Right now it's still the Bush economy. A year or two out, fairly or unfairly, it's going to be the Obama economy. Yes, now is the time for action.
Here is how the proposed stress-testing will work. No wonder the market was so impressed.
Feb. 10 ( Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by regulators, may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The companies needs will depend largely on the direction of home prices, Lockhart said in an interview in Las Vegas yesterday. His comments followed statements from Fannie Mae in November and Freddie Mac Chairman John Koskinen last week that the governments funding commitment through 2009 may fall short of what the companies need to make good on their obligations.
When we sized the amount in September, we obviously looked at stress tests and what was happening in the marketplace, Lockhart said. Theres been some significant events since then that werent in our forecast.
BTW dropping the market was designed to scare money into these auctions.
MS | 02.10.09 - 10:58 pm | #
I haven't looked at an auction calendar, but that kind of strategy wouldn't get them past next month. Do you think they're expecting aliens to land with gold butt plug replicators between now and then?
To clarify: Corn meal and barley are, perhaps, the most commonly used. ... Their digestibility depends largely on proper preparation and cooking. ... It is then strained through cheese cloth, and is clarified by boiling it with pieces of raw potato ...
I am so gonna laugh when I hear something verbally talk about Gold butt plugs. My MIL? (sent her an email with link to the Nationalization article on CR).
How 'bout it Paul?
Would the folks at the NYT let that one in or is too off-color?
At least use the Hoopajoops as an example of satire...
May be you can clear something up for me.....The 3 year had yet another indirect bid and more of it was accepted than from the primary's. Is this the primary's low-balling to try and catch a deal? By accepting more of the indirect bid I'm supposed to believe that "them furniners" decided to buy all of a sudden..which I have a hard time grasping....or is this just more of the Fed making there own bids at terms that are better for them?
Any idea's or am I thinking too much about it...appreciate any feedback.
Until you've lost your job as a white collar worker, or lost all your savings, or lost your home equity or seen the non-accept from college for the kids due to inabiltiy to pay, or lost your savings helping your in laws survive cancer - until it hits YOU. And you are willing to fly, drive, walk to your representative and grab them by the necktie and say NO MORE. Until then , None of these 535 Mandarins downtown, 1 mile from where I live is going to do a goddam thing execpt make sure they get elected next time. I have sat in front of Jim Clyburn, Majority Whip, James Webb, Va senator, and others and asked them to think for themselves and they say"I rely on my staff and my resources for information."
Why don't all of you reading this post come to DC and pin them down? I am exhausted from it - I told Karl D. I am done. I told my daughters I am done - I am too old and too sick to fight this battle anymore. Viacondios.Paricio a Mexico
I notice you mention "recent" immigrants, not all immigrants.
How about posting the wages AFTER immigrants have been in Canada for 5 or 10 years.
I worked at a software company in Toronto that used to hire newer immigrants because they could offer them less.
Funny thing is that all of them are now making well above median income and WAY above what they started at.
I can't help that you got shat on in Canada and had the same wage 5 years after you arrived. Perhaps your skills were lacking or people got sick of your carrying the racism chip on your shoulder? It can be visible in the work place you know?
But plenty of other immigrants did manage it.
Imagine that, coming to a new country and having to start out at the bottom. I guess that's weird to some people.
A bit late for Earl Grey for me. But a nice green tea is good for digestion.
burnside,
"When you're at this level of responsibility, you do not set a course without fully understanding the downside.:
I think they can get sucked into easy money and a hot table like anyone. I've seen it. I'm not completely discounting what you say, and there is good evidence to support your position...but I'm not sure...
"USA=CCCP, Bush is still in power. This is the same crap sandwich from the guy pulling the levers at the NY Fed for Paulson.
What I'd give for some honest liberals who would come in and do a proper nationalization."
I'm not a fan of Timmy... I'm wondering how long it will take Obama to put him under the bus.. Obama's had no problems putting peopel under the bus in the past
MrM writes:
"bond guy 10:40 pm - Stupid or nor, these are not nice things to say before two important auctions - 10yr and 30yr - coming up in the next two days."
It makes no sense whatsoever for reserve managers to buy 30-year paper. Those auctions have to clear without that bid; the only question is how much of a spread (slope) over short-term paper is needed to do it.
MLM writes:
"bond guy -
Do you think the Fed has started to buy Treasuries already?
And if/once they do, how will it change the landscape?"
Their balance sheet used to be 100% Treasury paper (and lending against Treasury paper). They've actually had to sell a lot to get the private sector paper onto their balance sheet.
If weak nominal economic growth continues (i.e. weak real growth plus no or negative inflation), they have little choice but to expand their balance sheet. The choice is either to buy Treasury long-term paper (central banks and money market funds are snapping up all the short-term stuff), or "private sector" paper (if you count Agency bonds as "private sector").
Either choice should help lower mortgage rates ("all else equal"), which is what they want. But it remains very uncertain whether they are willing to buy in sufficient size to guarantee mortgage rates stay at a certain level.
Which means that mortgage/Treasury rates can still go up; their buying will just mean that the rise is less than it would have otherwise been. Which is a way of saying that the environment will not appear structurally different.
...may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate... MrM | 02.10.09 - 11:01 pm | #
The proper reading of this is ...will need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government when the housing market continues to deteriorate...
The last couple years you could do this with pretty much any cautionary statement by any official and come out with a decent gauge of where things were heading, because their worst-case scenario always turned out to be optimistic.
Does anybody else think the libertarian's reality is all that is being worked toward at this point?? I mean, we are looking down the barrel(s) of an austerity shotgun, and our current two party system is arguing over the relative benefits of using either the Chase Platinum card or the Capitol One card to pay off the AMEX bill?
You Dems and Repubs realize where this all goes, right?
Nah, it more fun to whine, cry, and gnash your teeth so as to look relevant and in control to your constituency, all the while uttering empty threats.
If thing get real bad, you are aware that your home address and your party affiliation is public record right??
Which is a way of saying that the environment will not appear structurally different.
Bond guy, what are your thoughts on the dollar impact of the Fed buying Treasurys? I'm starting to think that this is the way they will monetize the crisis. It will keep rates down but devalue at the same time.
May be you can clear something up for me.....The 3 year had yet another indirect bid and more of it was accepted than from the primary's. Is this the primary's low-balling to try and catch a deal? By accepting more of the indirect bid I'm supposed to believe that "them furniners" decided to buy all of a sudden..which I have a hard time grasping....or is this just more of the Fed making there own bids at terms that are better for them?"
I don't track the auction statistics; I've always thought that's only useful for the sell side (they need to know how the auction has been distributed so that they have a feel for who has the paper).
But the foreigners with large USD holdings have to buy short-term paper like 3-years, where else do they put the money? Putting it into a bank account is not what a risk-averse institution wants to do right now (the bank can go bust). Official dollar holders could presumably leave the dollars on deposit at the New York Fed - and earn 0%. Not too attractive.
"Does anybody else think the libertarian's reality is all that is being worked toward at this point?? I mean, we are looking down the barrel(s) of an austerity shotgun, and our current two party system is arguing over the relative benefits of using either the Chase Platinum card or the Capitol One card to pay off the AMEX bill?
You Dems and Repubs realize where this all goes, right?
Nah, it more fun to whine, cry, and gnash your teeth so as to look relevant and in control to your constituency, all the while uttering empty threats.
If thing get real bad, you are aware that your home address and your party affiliation is public record right??"
It's much more likely we'll head back towards facism.. and go a lot further than we did under bush
Isn't the statement "the credit markets are frozen" a fallacy? Anyone can go to a bank with the title to their Bentley or Mercadies as collateral and get a loan. I have an 810 point credit score and can get $27,500 on a single credit card. I can get 100k on credit cards no questions asked. Why do the keep promoting the fallacy that credit is frozen? To me credit is completely thawed.
//How about posting the wages AFTER immigrants have been in Canada for 5 or 10 years.//
Hey, maybe your wife will find a job in her field soon. I do not give a f**k about the opinion of any canuck.
//Perhaps your skills were lacking or people got sick of your carrying the racism chip on your shoulder? It can be visible in the work place you know?//
Statistics says otherwise.
//But plenty of other immigrants did manage it.//
If canuck f**ker do not kiss the asses of people like me, who is gonna pay taxes to keep them going? YOU?
Better learn to respect me, your governments solvency depends on it!
//Imagine that, coming to a new country and having to start out at the bottom. I guess that's weird to some people.//
Yes of course. Absolutely. They're subject to every human foible and tropism. But once you depart middle management, good judgment also includes looking out for the soundness of the enterprise. I hold that they were promoted above their abilities. Not bush league, but not CEO material either.
What gets me is the repeated demands for apology, the I-was-right-and-you-were-wrong trope. It's beside the point - these guys just weren't up to the mark. Fire 'em.
Oh. And I was just lifting a cup of green tea to my lips as I read yours. :
I have read them - you are fabricating something that is not there.
Immigrants with low education do not generally have valuable work experience, and are closest in resemblance to recent high school grads who have chosen work over further education. That class of worker is lucky to make over $20k, according to the official statistics, which is 100% in line with the numbers you yourself quoted.
Because calling it a solvency issue would not be from the playbook. I've argued with people about this for two year's...but they believe it's about credit and only that. Pretty soon it will become that on a much larger scale as well. 700+ scores and you have no problem...go down even 10 points and that adds almost a full % point to a 30 y fixed in most quotes without application being processed.
I know, I have read a lot of your archived posts. So tell me, why did you move to the USA? ya..
//The funny thing about your diatribe is that my wife is non-white. She had no problem finding and keeping a job. Same with her brother.//
That is right.. the ones "you know". Sample size?
//Same with the Indians and Pakistanis and Eastern Europeans and South Americans I know.//
Nope, I have to see the economic collapse, misery, suffering and destruction of that group. The good news is that since late Nov 08 to Jan 09, it has started!
//Perhaps meds will help with your altered state?//
NUMBER ONE
Just stumbled on a new thread.
No bot needed.
Where's my pony ?
Now the real pork ladling begins.
Nostrovia,
They will likely split the difference and pass both bills.
Where's Hank?
Here is a quote from a reader of the Alea Blog about the bailout plan that I thought was quite good:
Just off the top of my head
Advocates use of a public-private solution as though the Fannie/Freddie debacle never happened.
Advocates use of stress-testing to measure bank soundness as though the failure of VaR never happened.
Advocates limiting the purchases to safe AAA securities as though the breakdown of rating agency risk models never happened.
Defines accountability and transparency as the volume of bank loans made, not their creditworthiness, as though the collapse of underwriting standards never happened.
Also very short on detail for something labeled a fact sheet.
Bacon-wrapped pork. Hmmmmm, goooood!
there's only one man equipped to be the secretary of the treasury in 2009.
that man is marc rich.
Maybe they put in a new economic model to replace the 70% consumption, geometric debt increase, budget and trade deficit economy ...
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt wont be eroded by reckless policies, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.
The U.S. should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way, Yu, who now heads the World Economics and Politics Institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in response to e-mailed questions yesterday from Beijing. He declined to elaborate on the assurances needed by China, the biggest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.
Yes, me too want to see hank paulson bank.
Have some snakes to catch in senate
Why can't the Dems include universal health care as the first step in negotiations? Let the Repubs fight against it.
i luv the smell of porkulus in the morning.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi,
"there's only one man equipped to be the secretary of the treasury in 2009."
Um, I think so Brain, but aren't you a lab mouse...NARF!
Nostrovia,
Americans clearly demonstrated today that they have not the slightest clue how to solve their crisis. But it makes for good entertainment watching them stumble and fall flat on their nose!
the govt should start paying for this via a lottery style tax
When I look at our leaders I try and picture them as they would be in the military or on a labor crew.
Geither is the Lt. An excellent asskisser, and giver of good PowerPoint. He would always eat first, and better then his men. He would always have nice quarters.
Obama is an officer. A good Major with potential. Good to his men.
Paulson would have been the Foreman from hell. As an officer he would let the enlisted take huge casulties and then bragged about it.
H. Clinton is the perfect staff officer. Unfit for command of troops but great as an aide or chief of staff.
What's the medical term for motion sickness? That's how I feel. Too much turbulence today.
Bush is the general's son who only got into west point because his daddy was in charge
(and actually McCain WAS THAT GUY IN REAL LIFE)
Americans clearly demonstrated today that they have not the slightest clue how to solve their crisis. But it makes for good entertainment watching them stumble and fall flat on their nose!
Werner
I think they know how to fix it but it is easier to use the taxpayer for a plunger.
Misean - from prev thread, we do blasts from pasts.
Cos they're fun.
C
Did the same person that did Geithner's taxes do The Stimulus TARP thing?
If Professor Kash Mansor married Neel Kashkari, he would be Kash Kashkari.
So what are we up to now, 3 trillion I think I read earlier today between O's stim and Timmay's plan.
Also read one of those "if you took the money and stacked it end to end" kinda quotes that got me thinking.
So since the year 1 to 2009 you would have to spend 4,091,178 million a day to reach 3 trillion.
Thats a lot of freaking money, I want a pony out of this damnit!
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 9:36 pm | #
Funny and true. And they both sucked as aviators.
"Too much turbulence today."
we're more or less in the middle of the range of the past 3 trading weeks...
i would have been more disoriented by a move to 900 spx
"Bush is the general's son who only got into west point because his daddy was in charge"
Bush could not get in even with his daddy in charge. Of course, his daddy was not in charge at that point in W's life. But W would have been a dog catcher in a small town if not for his father's conections.
Damn, what a day.
err make that just the 4,091,178...so 4 mil a day...
Timmy is just the lead squirrel - climbing up to the bird feeder dumping all the seed whilst the smart squirrels wait below for their bounty. The fix is in watch the markets rally in the next 48 hours
Sciurus writes:
Timmy is just the lead squirrel - climbing up to the bird feeder dumping all the seed whilst the smart squirrels wait below for their bounty. The fix is in watch the markets rally in the next 48 hours
Sciurus | 02.10.09 - 9:41 pm | #
Whole lotta people thinking that Sciurus. Might be right, but at some point they'll be very wrong.
Is there a provision in the plan to boost job creation for digging ditches?
"Bush could not get in even with his daddy in charge. Of course, his daddy was not in charge at that point in W's life. But W would have been a dog catcher in a small town if not for his father's conections."
+1000
or a dog catcher's assistant
The auction also drew robust demand from foreign central banks as indirect bidders took nearly 44 percent of the auction. At the prior auction the indirect bidders accounted for only 28 percent of the total. That outpouring of affection from the foreigners assuages fears that the chunkier size of the auction might cause a bit of spillage.
When I look at our leaders I try and picture them as they would be in the military or on a labor crew.
nova | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 9:35 pm | #
And Bush would have been AWOL . . . oh, wait, he was.
Nap time. Ta Ta. See u @ 4 o'clcock maybe.
C
Whole lotta people thinking that Sciurus. Might be right, but at some point they'll be very wrong.
1.41 | 02.10.09 - 9:43 pm | #
squirrels are an optimistic and persistent bunch
Werner writes:
Americans clearly demonstrated today that they have not the slightest clue how to solve their crisis.
~~~~
Just wait until Deutsche Bank blows up ... you'll be crying in your strudel ...
Just wait until Deutsche Bank blows up ... you'll be crying in your strudel ...
mmckinl
BWAHAHAHA
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...I think they know how to fix it but it is easier to use the taxpayer for a plunger...
Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
I think the bursting of the housing bubble in spain, portugal and greece will effect germans much more than a couple of banks busting. many, many germans invested in RE there.
CDSguy (@ 8:00 last thread)
If you like reading, then terrific read for disaster society is "A Distant Mirror" by Barbara Tuchman.
Tome about society in France/England in 14th century.
Prescience sucks, don't it?
"Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value."
Hey now.. I work for a software company.. we actually make and sell products! So a few of us are economically productive
thaksin-
a larger portion of the "indirect bid" seems to have been accepted rather then what the primary dealers have submitted. I'm still trying to figure out why that happened. I can't (and don't) believe that suddenly foreign buyer's were just so eager to suck it up....especially if Benny Boy is going to cap them artificially.
Something smells with the way it's being reported and in the actual results of the 3 year.
Ciao
S
MS-
Don't be so damned cynical.
shame on you.
If Geithner's the lead squirrel, how soon 'til he's eaten?
Ciao
MS
"And Bush would have been AWOL . . . oh, wait, he was."
That claim was discredited as false. However, we probably would have been better off is he actually was AWOL.
The level of talk has changed again. Krugman on PBS Newshour tonight spoke openly of the possibility that some of the big U.S. banks are already insolvent. Nobody panicked or gasped or reacted much at all. Says a lot about how far we've come in the past month and what we can get our minds around.
Can anybody here hazard a guess as to how long before the Administration gets auditors in there and we start hearing their findings?
A quote for the European crowd
"Who's more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him"
Wrong ! The only thing they can think of is to just spend (much) more of other peoples money .
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
Werner
~~~~~
Most of Western Europe actually ... the neoliberal game was played by all of the West ...
Actually Americans work longer hours than even the Japanese.
Germans just use the money they save on defense to mollify and encourage dolts such as yourself.
Can't all this be solved by a tax cut for the rich?
That's what Bush would do---
So what's going on with the FHLB's these days?
I was just thinking back to last night's Obama press conference. He was so mum about Timmay's plan... didn't want to steal the thunder.
LMAO!!!!!!!!!
Clearly, there better be some bailout for more of the arrowheads or I'll be pissed!
In fact, Larry Flynt better get his $5 billion or this is just a travishamockery of a stimulus.
If you call this stimulus, you better follow through on that claim and I know of no better way than to give the porn industry the money they need to survive this crisis!
or a dog catcher's assistant
the coke-addled, drunken dog catcher's assistant that got his instructions from a higher power (which is hidden nicely in a black hole somewhere).
homedad43 writes:
If Geithner's the lead squirrel, how soon 'til he's eaten?
lead squirrels are not the smartest - in fact they are used by the other (smarter) squirrels to "stress test" the various obstacles humans deploy to keep them at bay.
MS,
"I can't (and don't) believe that suddenly foreign buyer's were just so eager to suck it up"
Now wait...that's an idea. How much went to Cayman type buyers?
Nostrovia,
If Geithner's the lead squirrel, how soon 'til he's eaten?
he was given a warning today
"Can anybody here hazard a guess as to how long before the Administration gets auditors in there and we start hearing their findings?"
Ah...how about never.
Seriously..they know what they hold and more importantly what they are worth, Paulson knew it, Geithner knows it....as do many other people.
Actually publishing the truth about them? Not a chance in hell.....
Ciao
MS
So what's going on with the FHLB's these days?
Joanna
~~~
They are going broke absorbing underwater loans from the banks...
The Wall Street banks have already off loaded hundreds of billions on to tax payer sponsored entities like the FHLBs, Fannie and Freddie ...
"I was just thinking back to last night's Obama press conference. He was so mum about Timmay's plan... didn't want to steal the thunder."
I think Obama knew there was little to say. So let Timmy say it.
That FAZ was a screamer today. SRS did a little high jump of its own. Too bad I sold calls on 1/2 my position I entered at the close yesterday...
mmckinl writes:
...Just wait until Deutsche Bank blows up ...
When, when finally does it blow up ?
I am waiting an eternity for that now, busily prognosticated by "born and breed dopes" and nothing happens.
It was quite dissapointing to see Deutsche Bank managing to generate a 4Q loss not more than a shabby american car-manufacturer (Ford) can. Quite dissapointing !
Americans are clearly incapable of e.g. "earning" more money (to pay back their debt).
Earning in America today just means to trick/cheat someone else, not producing real value.
Werner
Funny Chrysler made good money until Daimler took over. I think that was a trick/cheat deal. I also drive a MBZ and have for years. There are a couple of Deutsche Bank REO's here in my small town. Lots of German companies in the rip off here. We are all global now in prosperity and debt. I read Speigal on line too. Germany has pain to deal with also.
That claim was discredited as false.
Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
BS. He was absent without leave for the last several months of his service. He spent some of that time working on political campaigns, which is also not allowed for active military.
Who do you think discredited anything? Was it Rush Limbaugh or some other big fat Republican blowhard?
The issue arose at a time when an acknowledged draft dodger was serving as President, so it didn't seem like too big a deal at the time. BTW Al Gore actually served in Vietnam, though for a very short tour in a very safe location given his father's status.
MS - have heard several high-profile types speaking about government auditors going into the banks. I have no doubt it will happen.
comrade lurker writes:
...So what are we up to now, 3 trillion I think I read earlier today ...
They call that "change" . (Yes, we can.)
It was quite dissapointing to see Deutsche Bank managing to generate a 4Q loss not more than a shabby american car-manufacturer (Ford) can. Quite dissapointing !
Werner
~~~~
The only thing that saved Deutsche Bank was a change in accounting rules ... otherwise it would have been bloody indeed.
[I think Obama knew there was little to say. So let Timmy say it.
Zephyr]
Better hope that's not the case or we're in for a long 4 years. If he knew he should have fed Timmay about 20 red pills so he couldn't show up.
Sporsfan, That was all part of the forged memo scandal with Dan Rather.
Werner, are you equally insufferable on German websites? And by that I mean, feel free to go be insufferable on German websites.
I'm seeing far fewer Obama stickers on car bumpers these days, and I think as more people wash their cars this Spring, the vast majority of American's will be scraping off that memory...
Sporsfan, That was all part of the forged memo scandal with Dan Rather.
Zephyr
~~~
LOL ... think again Bush baby ...
Posted from previous thread -
Anonymous writes:
What is it about the concept of "economic warfare" that is not understood, especially when most of our own population is fighting for the other side?
Keep buying foriegn crap to save a few bucks.
Outsource jobs to save a few bucks.
Hide profits abroad to save a few bucks.
Cheat on your taxes to save a few bucks
Hire illegals to save a few bucks
Lobby congress to save a few bucks
Hire people to find loop-holes to save a few bucks
Rape the environment to save a few bucks
Sell your children and grandchildren into (financial) slavery to save a few bucks
Do whatever the hell it takes to save a few bucks, but don't actually save a few bucks, 'cause, well, that would be plain stupid.
Anonymous | 02.10.09 - 9:52 pm | #
Bearly, I am sure that Obama is not happy with Tim tonight. My bet is that Obama was aware of the lack of specifics, but expected more than was delivered.
have heard several high-profile types speaking about government auditors going into the banks.
With most of the large banks, the auditors already have offices at the branches.
Feckless-
I'm pretty sure it already has happened...but we (us schmucks) will never really be told what the results are/were.
This whole "stress test" is just another phrase designed to quell growing outrage. It's actually fairly easy to see what they hold in stated asset value but we will never get it broken down. If they did it would wipe them out immediately (thank you FASB for creating several levels of asset "classes")
We know it, they know it....but they don't know what "we" don't know....
Ciao
MS
":Sporsfan, That was all part of the forged memo scandal with Dan Rather"
Not that it matters.. but you are a little off on that one.
The forged memo supposedly proved the accusations..
However there is still the big gap in his record that was never explained...... so it's very likely he was AWOL
But really.. does it even matter now?
Bush will go down as the worst president and one of the worst "elected" leaders in world history...
the Bush depression is going to mean he's like hoover.. but worse
USA=CCCP writes:
...Hey now.. I work for a software company.. we actually make and sell products! So a few of us are economically productive...
Yes, I am sorry to have overlooked that tiny minority. But you are right, in real life there are always a few exceptions.
Feckless Ness writes:
The level of talk has changed again. Krugman on PBS Newshour tonight spoke openly of the possibility that some of the big U.S. banks are already insolvent. Nobody panicked or gasped or reacted much at all. Says a lot about how far we've come in the past month and what we can get our minds around.
My god, Feckless. You can remember back to how things were a month ago! You're not an American, are you?
Cheers
instead of whittling in front of the five and dime, here we are typing in front of C and R.
Werner - I feel for you, man. Somehow we Americans always seem to come out on top even though clearly we are such screw ups. We are lazy and stupid yet we invent everything and production per worker is the highest in the world. Call it the Homer Simpson syndrome, everyone thinks we are dumb asses but we have the best of everything.
That's why I'm sure the next few years will hurt, but somehow we will come out on top again.
"LOL ... think again Bush baby ...
mmckinl | 02.10.09 - 10:03 pm | # "
Hey now.. Zephyr seems pretty reasonable to me.. he's obviosly not a wingnut.. lay off with the wild accusations.
I know it's the lead story on CNN.com right now, but it's probably the only thing that will get these clowns attention : the possibility that they will be held accountable for ruining this country.
We need a new party, one that has some fiscal responsibility. Hope they show up soon.
Group pledges to fight GOP senators who support stimulus - CNN.com
Cthulhu and the Mrs. would like to stop renting and actually buy in R'lyeh, but the numbers just aren't there yet. Particularly with employment uncertainty. But this $15K tax credit probably would have put us over the edge. If it doesn't go through, I expect we will wait a bit longer.
That doesn't mean that cutting it is bad policy - propping up house prices is a fool's errand - but I would personally prefer that it stay in.
You're not an American, are you?
I don't remember.
"I know it's the lead story on CNN.com right now, but it's probably the only thing that will get these clowns attention : the possibility that they will be held accountable for ruining this country.
We need a new party, one that has some fiscal responsibility. Hope they show up soon.
CNN.com - Page not found index.html"
So you are happy that right-wing extremists are attempting to destroy the country?
Jeez
Re: " My bet is that Obama was aware of the lack of specifics, but expected more than was delivered."
Oh come on dude, that's total bullshit, that speech was rehearsed and choreographed like a bad ballet; they have no clue what they are doing!
"LOL ... think again Bush baby ..."
Ignore the facts if you like. I only wish that W had become the dog catcher that he was qualified to be.
Feckless Ness writes:
You're not an American, are you?
I don't remember.
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:06 pm | #
That confirms it. I was wrong.
Remove the homebuyers tax credit. Listen to CR. He knows.
Totally OT, but with all the economic chaos over the past year I've really grown to enjoy waking up to Carol Masser each morning. I pay more attention to her than my wife.
[That's why I'm sure the next few years will hurt, but somehow we will come out on top again.
Odrama ]
We'll have a lower standard of living in a few years. A good deal lower.
Like the moniker!
"We need a new party, one that has some fiscal responsibility. Hope they show up soon."
We need this. But it will never happen.
basel-
to follow up with your comment a few threads back.....I think all those "holidays" are the result of they're answer to the UK bank holidays...I mean what the hell is "foundation day" or "sports day"-that was a few months ago....
We'll get something like "Underwear Day"....
Ciao
MS
We're all fat and lazy now?
My daughter, a single mom, bought a tiny house that was cheaper than renting. With this tax credit, she will repair the property, which you otherwise couldn't afford to do.
Think of the trees as well as the forest.
Zephyr,
Just because someone handed fake documents to Dan Rather doesn't mean the story was false.
It's a standard counter-intelligence action. The U.S. does it to discredit certain foreigners all the time. The fact that someone did it to discredit Dan Rather has no bearing on whether the underlying truth was being suppressed as a result.
For an impartial take on it, go to factcheck.org:
Democratic Group's Ad Revives "AWOL" Allegation Against Bush
"Werner - I feel for you, man. Somehow we Americans always seem to come out on top even though clearly we are such screw ups. We are lazy and stupid yet we invent everything and production per worker is the highest in the world. Call it the Homer Simpson syndrome, everyone thinks we are dumb asses but we have the best of everything.
That's why I'm sure the next few years will hurt, but somehow we will come out on top again."
LOL.. what makes you think Americans have anywhere near the highest standard of living?
From CNN online:
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..."
Say good night, Citigroup.
Good night Citigroup.
And may all the rest of you have a pleasant sleep, full of dreams of dictatorial powers and Swedish models (whether they be male or female or points in between) at your beck and call....
From CNN online:
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..."
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:09 pm
A quick google on Scott Wheeler should give you an idea of the level of crazy he brings to the table.
lawngrass,
"instead of whittling in front of the five and dime, here we are typing in front of C and R."
/aims at spitoon...pa-ting
Yep. 'bout sums it up.
Gonna be a bit chilly tonight, better head on home 'fore the missus calls and bring in a load a coal.
Nostrovia,
Oh come on dude, that's total bullshit, that speech was rehearsed and choreographed like a bad ballet; they have no clue what they are doing!
Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it.
Sportsfan, It was Dan's longtime assistant that likely fabricated the memo. But who cares if the underlying story is believable or not. Bush was a dope. His attendance at the airfield does not change that.
I hope that's clean coal Misean
"A quick google on Scott Wheeler should give you an idea of the level of crazy he brings to the table."
The republicans are going to be out of power for a long time.. they are taking the approach that many out-groups foolishly take at first.. instead of moving left they are demanding MORE ideological purity... "we just weren't conservative enough"
They need a lot of time in the wilderness... neo-cons have been running that party since ronnie raygun.. goona take awhile to get rid of them all
We'll have a lower standard of living in a few years.
Years??? HAHAHAHAHA! Try months.
Cthulhu and the Mrs. would like to stop renting and actually buy in R'lyeh, but the numbers just aren't there yet...
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
Shock. You haven't ravaged the town and eaten the neighbors yet?
China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt wont be eroded by reckless policies, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the central bank.
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
"An influential conservative political action committee is pledging to support primary challenges to any Republican senator who backs the economic stimulus bill..."
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:09 pm | #
As I have said, it has been the Republican Party versus the American People for many years now.
Why would they stop just because they've earned their place in the minority?
CK,
Now you just stop talkin' to the wife, young lady. Got my arms full enough already.
Nostrovia,
mmckinl writes:
...Actually Americans work longer hours than even the Japanese...
...and the Germans, but longer houers does not mean "more".
I know the american working style, practiced it for 4 years myselfs (in the US of course!).
...Germans just use the money they save on defense to mollify and encourage dolts such as yourself...
No, they delivered that money to the AAA-cheating americans.
P.S. When will these lazy american occupiers finally leave Germany .
WWII is 60 years in the past, and these parasites are still here.
"Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it."
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
Do not feed bratwurst to ze troll.
eo-cons have been running that party since ronnie raygun.. goona take awhile to get rid of them all
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:14 pm
Actually long before that. What, you thought Cheney, Rummy and the gang weren't around during the Nixon/Ford era? Who do you think brainstormed the Cold War?
I'm seeing far fewer Obama stickers on car bumpers these days, and I think as more people wash their cars this Spring, the vast majority of American's will be scraping off that memory...
I ♥ Timmy! | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:02 pm | #
But my "Wtf" and "worst president ever" stickers will stay on a long, long time.
mmckinl writes:
...The only thing that saved Deutsche Bank was a change in accounting rules ... otherwise ...
Blah, blah, blah, ...
My daughter, a single mom, bought a tiny house that was cheaper than renting. With this tax credit, she will repair the property, which you otherwise couldn't afford to do.
Did she already close on the house? I thought that the $15K tax credit only applies to houses purchased 1 year from the enactment of the stimulus.
Bush was a dope. His attendance at the airfield does not change that.
Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 10:13 pm | #
You know, what's funny is he didn't show up for the last few months of his Presidency either.
I hope everyone who ever voted for him feels really stupid about having done that and that they never do it again.
This country will never recover from the cancer that is the Republican Party until it is eliminated.
right-wing extremists are attempting to destroy the country?
I don't think it's appropriate to characterize Obama and his staff as "right-wing" extremeists.
.
"Actually long before that. What, you thought Cheney, Rummy and the gang weren't around during the Nixon/Ford era? Who do you think brainstormed the Cold War?"
True.. .but then again.. Nixon would be considered a raging Liberal by today's GOP
"You know, what's funny is he didn't show up for the last few months of his Presidency either."
If only he had done that earlier...
So would Reagan, for that matter.
No, they delivered that money to the AAA-cheating americans.
P.S. When will these lazy american occupiers finally leave Germany .
WWII is 60 years in the past, and these parasites are still here.
Werner
~~~~
Glad to oblige ... but German girls wouldn't hear of it ...
Sportsfan - You're sounding a lot like those you criticize. Just sayin'.
Neo cons actually were originally Liberals, they switched, thus the moniker.
"This country will never recover from the cancer that is the Republican Party until it is eliminated."
Oh there are a few good republicans..... but that party has a bad cancer that needs to be cut out
It's downright terrifying how many people in this nation take their marching orders from hannity and limbaugh
How's Obama's Economy. It's his, starting with today's Treasury Plan!
"I hope everyone who ever voted for him feels really stupid about having done that and that they never do it again."
My bet is that nobody will vote for him again.
"I don't think it's appropriate to characterize Obama and his staff as "right-wing" extremeists."
LOL.. that was pretty funny
But wait.. I thought Obama was a socialist who was going to spread the wealth around?
Joe the plumber should have looked at a 30 year income distribution graph
Sachsen? IKB? Hypo? HSH?
Werner - that's what happens when you surrender, other people write the rules for you.
With this tax credit, she will repair the property, which you otherwise couldn't afford to do.
Now that's counting the chickens before they hatch. That tax credit may get cut....
"WWII is 60 years in the past, and these parasites are still here."
BwahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahA!
The merest hint in the early 90's that bases might close caused German politicians apopleptic fits.
Not that I'd mind closing them...but...
BWAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHA!
Nostrovia,
"How's Obama's Economy. It's his, starting with today's Treasury Plan!"
That's just nonsense... the economy was in a depression before he got here.
Now.. that being said.. it's his job to make it less painful if possible.. well see how he does
Sportsfan - You're sounding a lot like those you criticize. Just sayin'.
Joe | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Well, Joe, I've seen what happens when people don't speak up. I'll keep speaking up until I die or they cart me off sooner. I've had more than enough, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more.
Can anybody here hazard a guess as to how long before the Administration gets auditors in there and we start hearing their findings?
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
The auditors will be fresh out of school and have no clue as to what 90% of the securities on the bank's books are, much less how to value them.
The bankers will patiently explain to the little darlings how the cash flows work (according to the bankers' models) and proving that each instrument is money good. Therefore, the security should be priced at 120% of par and banker shit don't stink. The auditor, dearly wants to make senior next year and not get fired after this busy season, will nod her sweet little head, pretend to understand, and signoff on each price.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...Germany has pain to deal with also...
Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !
Maybe you should better emigrate to the back side of the moon, the world would be better off then.
It's downright terrifying how many people in this nation take their marching orders from hannity and limbaugh
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Fortunately, that group of neo-confederates is becoming smaller and smaller.
why not let the financial system crash itself?
pretty good demo today
stress test=dem banks be bad, very bad
Negotiators discuss $800 billion stimulus deal
"But in a sign of tough negotiations ahead, Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who helped broker the initial compromise, said she could not again vote for the measure if it stayed at the current size.
"I'm not saying what's in, what's out. I'm just saying the bottom line must be under $800 billion," she told reporters after the Senate vote."
Congress, White House near final deal on stimulus
| Quotes
| Company News
| Reuters
sportsfan, you wouldn't be in Southern California, by any chance?
"My bet is that nobody will vote for him again."
LOL +1
Although a vote for mccain was pretty much the same thing.....
In a sick way I almost wish the republicans still were in charge of everything so we could see exactly how well their gutting of the govt and massive tax cuts work
Neo cons actually were originally Liberals, they switched, thus the moniker.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Never happened. They were always fascists.
I'm kinda tired of all the blasts from the past.
Who gives a rats butt anymore about Bush and the AWOL crap?
Why do we even care about Germany - let 'em deal with Russia themselves.
Did you see Idol tonight?
"I'm not saying what's in, what's out. I'm just saying the bottom line must be under $800 billion," she told reporters after the Senate vote."
What a clown.. so basically she picked an arbitrary cut off value and is sticking to it.. because?
I hope it fails personally... I almost wonder if Obama wants it to fail.. it would help him politically
Did you see Idol tonight?
homedad43
LOL touche
Werner ~ On Deutsche Bank ...
February 5, 2009
The bank struggled to offer sufficient evidence on Thursday to support its stubborn resistance to such rescue measures. None of its divisions churned out any meaningful profit in the fourth quarter, which led to a 3.9 billion euro, or $5 billion, net loss for the year. Big gains in foreign exchange and money markets were more than offset by disappointment from the core trading areas of credit and equity derivatives.
Whats more, Deutsche Bank seems to be exhausting its bag of available tricks to cut borrowing and sustain its capital ratios. A dividend cut released funds that had been accumulated for a higher payout, while a change in pension plan accounting freed up still more.
Some of the banks sizable balance sheet reduction also was a bit of smoke and mirrors. Its hefty leveraged loan exposure all but disappeared when two United States buyouts collapsed, and an additional 11 billion euros of assets vanished under new accounting rules.
BREAKINGVIEWS.COM - NY Times
Don't give it away, homedad! It's early yet on the Left Coast.
Suspension of "marked to market" will solve everything.
Odrama writes:
...yet we invent everything...
Can you spell my name with a "h" interspersed ? Does that ring a bell ?
omg. i'm just now watching Geithner's speech from this morning.
Stunned. Like it or not, the Secretary of the Treasury is now a political position, and he will clearly be overmatched.
Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !
Maybe you should better emigrate to the back side of the moon, the world would be better off then.
Werner
All you are saying is the Germans where not smart enough to spot it. Now hush before I start listing German companies here in America that have lived off the fat of free enterprise. Do you know where the first AC components and cruise controls for MBZ came from? Who invented electronic fuel injection? America has a lot of good German talent like me.
In a sick way I almost wish the republicans still were in charge of everything so we could see exactly how well their gutting of the govt and massive tax cuts work
totally
hardy har har har
sportsfan, you wouldn't be in Southern California, by any chance?
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:23 pm | #
Certainly would be.
OnTheRun,
"Suspension of "marked to market" will solve everything."
Yep, cuz once it's suspended NO ONE will EVER remember that the swept big steaming piles of crap under the rug.
Nostrovia,
Can you spell my name with a "h" interspersed ?
Whehrhnhehr.
Like it or not, the Secretary of the Treasury is now a political position, and he will clearly be overmatched.
Basel Too | 02.10.09 - 10:26 pm | #
Don't worry, he'll be under the bus before long.
sportsfan - anywhere near L.A.?
Most people are not interested in the government or any of the economics topics discussed on this board. But they do care about Idol!
I think this is a good read..repost from above
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasury Bond
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasuries, Yu Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
roh uh
moral hazard is growing larger by the day
Basel:
So did you read the color commentary here before seeing the tape?
Misean strikes me as the John Madden type.
homedad43 writes:
I'm kinda tired of all the blasts from the past.
Okay how about a new twist on an old favorite
YouTube - Stairway to Heaven live (Rodrigo y Gabriela)
I gotta say that there is no real answer. Lived in Sweden during the banking crisis. It was not pretty. Listened to my Grandfather who spoke about the Depression and it was not pretty.
I do think above all else, there is a sense that this problem is someones else's issue. And this will might not change.
I also think Wall Street and all of the egos that built this house of cards also feel it is someone else's problem.
Today's markets were worriesome. The bond market was, well, different.
I sense that like a dieing patient, the US does not want to go into the night but is being forced to accept some reality that is not of "their" doing.
It is hard to imagine a company see its sales and profits drop 40-76%..how will a society react if its economy contracted same.
anywhere near L.A.
About 150 klicks. Why do you ask?
So did you read the color commentary here before seeing the tape?
No, I probably should though.
Geithner looks like he's at his college interview and sounds like he forget his cheat sheet.
Probably thought that all podiums came with a telestrator.
homedad43,
"So did you read the color commentary here before seeing the tape?"
ROFL...
I'll have to try that one.
Well ya see, ya got this big pile of money over here. Now the defense needs to push it right up the middle, so you get the Treasury sect'y to fake it to a Ppifff over here...see...and then BAM!
Nostrovia,
Corporate BK is PORK. Tax deductibility of mortgage interest is PORK. Capital gains tax cut was PORK. How about a slice of bacon for the little guy? Goes well with cheese.
Probably thought that all podiums came with a telestrator.
Basel Too | 02.10.09 - 10:32 pm | #
I'll lay you odds he had one.
Mark to market exacerbates financial panics, and exacerbates the appearance of health during bubbles. Otherwise it is great in theory.
scone writes:
Negotiators discuss $800 billion stimulus deal
I think there is a larger question: Should we go to the market to borrow untold sums and will there be buyers? A huge assumption has been made that there is unlimited borrowing capacity...not so sure this is the case, at least at these interest levels
Barley:
Nicely put.
The trick however, is to ensure that the patient doesn't suffer from dementia in the process.
Better half has found with dying/chronically ill patients that temporarily stopping all but the most critical meds dramatically improves the functioning mental capacity.
Werner writes:
"Exactly, and where does it originate from ?
You irresponsible americans, driving your financial system into desaster hurt the whole world !"
Considering the number of European financial institutions that have already failed or needed bailouts, this rant could be viewed as somewhat amusing from certain angles.
As for the responsible Teutonic economy, we'll see how a growth strategy based upon capital equipment exports is going to work out in the next couple of years.
Yes, Geithner had a teleprompter, they were discussing it afterwards on one of the news channels...
NIKKEI cares less about Timmy's dance moves and futures prepare for VIX move back upward:
A break through 7,800 could finally spark a test of lows at 7,400. Otherwise, if 7,800 holds, we could see another bullish bounce off the lower trend line.
Back to 8200
SignalWatch LIVE!
Basel Too writes:
omg. i'm just now watching Geithner's speech from this morning.
Stunned. Like it or not, the Secretary of the Treasury is now a political position, and he will clearly be overmatched.
I commented on the previous thread that I actually think that Paulson now looks like a better Treasury Sec than Geithner - more decisive and more focused. Geithner had two months and still has not come with a coherent proposal. Geithner also seems more afraid to inflict pain on bank shareholders (not that he is not succeeding, though)
Crap. Too far.
I have a situation, sportsfan. My city council's about to give a 3-year contract to public safety employees, with a 3.5% raise each year. It's a big mistake. As the economy deteriorates, this contract will eventually force layoffs in other departments.
I'm debating whether to go to the mike myself, hire an attorney to do it on behalf of "an anonymous client," or recruit a CR type to get up and say why it's a fucking huge mistake.
I don't think I can do nothing. Somebody needs to stand up and say what's right.
Werner writes:
Odrama writes:
...yet we invent everything...
Can you spell my name with a "h" interspersed ? Does that ring a bell ?
WHINER ???
"China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasury Bond
Bloomberg.com refer=home"
100,000,000 conscripted american laborers each with their own shovel, rice bowl and cheap bicycle?
"I commented on the previous thread that I actually think that Paulson now looks like a better Treasury Sec than Geithner - more decisive and more focused. Geithner had two months and still has not come with a coherent proposal. Geithner also seems more afraid to inflict pain on bank shareholders (not that he is not succeeding, though)"
So we'd rather have a decisive criminal who does the wrong thing.. but at least decisively?
I prefer timmy so far.. I'd rather they do nothing and have their hand forced.. I think the outcome will be better
A break through 7,800 could finally spark a test of lows at 7,400. Otherwise, if 7,800 holds, we could see another bullish bounce off the lower trend line.
I â¥'s Timmy! | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:35 pm | #
PCA, is that you? Did you fall in love with Turbotim and change your handle?
Seriously, I shot the shit out of my day by doing color commentary on CR while watching CNBC.
It's like a econo/political version of MST3K (hey, Tom Servo...)
My wife never got that one.
homedad43 - watched the 10 year today with unusual focus...something went on which leads me to believe that quan. easing is happening now. This leads me to conclude appetite for more is waining and yields must move up...
I spent several years in Germany at a US law firm and really enjoyed my time there. The people were great.
Funny thing, though. When I negotiated merger agreements (in English), without fail the Germans on the other side of the table would confer among themselves in German, fully assuming that the stupid Americans didn't understand them. Things like "don't offer full price yet, let's lowball them first and see how they react".
It was fun.
MikeLI,
"Stairway to Heaven live (Rodrigo y Gabriela)"
Nice...and dude has a Slayer shirt on too.
Nostrovia,
"And Bush would have been AWOL . . . oh, wait, he was."
That claim was discredited as false. However, we probably would have been better off is he actually was AWOL.
Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 9:53 pm | #
The claim that alleged to be proof he was AWOL was false. Still, nobody has any proof that he did show up for duty. though you'd think somebody might just remember a future president of the USA. I would be making a false claim if I said I saw Reagan sworn in as President. That does not mean Reagan was not sworn in as President.
Darn you, CR. As to your comment about the proposed homebuyers tax credit, why should it be only the banks, insurance companies, and auto manufacturers who get to loot the Treasury? Why shouldn't some of us taxpayers be able to pick the pockets of our fellow taxpayers? We would be doing our part to stimulate the economy. As they in D.C. say, we got to spend spend spend.
Why are still wasting money fighting pot when the USA is broke .Eight arrested in Michael Phelps case Eight arrested in Michael Phelps case - WIS News 10 - Columbia, South Carolina |
I didn't see this movie, but here's the ending:
Great Expectations - Final Scene
YouTube -
This reminds me of Obama for some reaso
re : mmckinl writes: Werner ~ On Deutsche Bank ...
Yes, I hear that stuff now for more than a year, and all they manage is a loss like a shabby american car-manufacturer.
But maybe you should quit reading that "General Betray-us" paper and you will see the world as it really is.
Barley, didn't we know that already though?
anon writes:
"I think this is a good read..repost from above
China Needs U.S. Guarantees for Treasury Bond"
There's a reason why a lot of mid-level Chinese officials do not make it to high-level - they are complete blooming idiots.
Treasury Bonds are already guaranteed by the Treasury - they are guaranteed to pay out at par at maturity. What did they expect would happen when they bought more than $1TN in USD paper - they will get paid back in renminbi at a convenient exchange rate for valuation purposes? Would they like little pink ponies that defecate M&M's as well?
The insanity of these intelligent people trying to manufacture credit is unfathomable. Even a squirrel knows for every credit there is a debit.
Ness:
Why not just do it yourself?
Seriously, it's worth the trouble. And if there are others there, you might be surprised at the response.
And if you have kids, take them for the educational value.
don't think I can do nothing. Somebody needs to stand up and say what's right.
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:35 pm | #
Then go and do it. Absolutely point out that locking in raises is foolhardy when they don't have revenues locked in. In this economy revenues could fall off a cliff. Moreover, this is a deflationary economy and the employees will do well just to keep the same salary. At the very least the contract should provide that, in the event of falling revenues, layoffs or other cutbacks in hours/overtime/etc should come first from the public safety employees or they should agree to a salary reduction to avoid that happening.
Stand up and speak your mind. You'll feel better about yourself whatever they do.
china have lost some money in agencies now they fear for treasuries
Zephyr writes:
Mark to market exacerbates financial panics, and exacerbates the appearance of health during bubbles. Otherwise it is great in theory.
MtM on current performing assets might be debatable. Eliminating MtM on non-performing assets is just not credible.
Mark to market exacerbates financial panics, and exacerbates the appearance of health during bubbles. Otherwise it is great in theory.
Zephyr | 02.10.09 - 10:34 pm | #
In the late 1980s when I worked for a German insurance company, they had to calculate surplus by valuing securities at the lower of cost or lowest market price ever. They had a lot of unrealized gains squirreled away in the statutory balance sheet.
.
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:16 pm | #
Valid argument, upto a point. But after 8 years of Bush, this was shaping up to be democratic victory whoever the candidate.
I read somewhere that the percentage of the votes for the democratic candidates (senate and congress) was slightly larger than what Obama got.
Back to the economic crisis, I don't think Obama and crew are 10 steps ahead. They have'nt faced up to the reality that the Banks are insolvent. Obama has a huge mandate and massive goodwill right now. Right now the total failure of our financial system can be laid at the foot of the previous administration. But a year from now Obama will own this mess and nationalisation will be much harder at that point.
IMHO the banks will end up getting nationalised. It's going to be cheaper and easier to do it now rather than in six months. The only other question is whether the taxpayers as owners get any say in how it's going to be run.
Yeah, homedad. I'm thinking about it. There's a gotcha, however. I work for the aforementioned public safety department. I could pretty much kiss my job goodbye. And I might as well get rid of my phone, 'cause ain't nobody ever gonna respond if I ever call 911 after that.
You can understand my hesitation.
So we'd rather have a decisive criminal who does the wrong thing.. but at least decisively?
At least Paulson was not afraid to wipe out some shareholders - Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, AIG.
Geithner seems to be trying to save them all.
Werner
Just sayin' there's enough BS for both sides of the Atlantic ...
It will get ugly for everyone ... and yes the American Bankers screwed the pooch ... but don't blame Americans ... blame their government ... big difference ...
Misean,
They cover some Metallica as well. One or both of them spent time in a metal band.
They are very, very good guitar players.
YouTube - Rodrigo Y Gabriella cover of Metallica's Orion
cutbacks in hours/overtime/etc should come first from the public safety employees or they should agree to a salary reduction
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
Barley:
I've tried to go back to the treasury yields and have a basic understanding of what's happening, but to follow them realtime and have a concept of what's really happening?
I'm not there yet.
That said, the logic dictates - knowing that the big buyers are shifting to the short end of the spectrum - that it would start happening fairly soon.
And having been badly burned on TBT, I'm not certain.
What might you look for in real time to get a better feel?
USA=CCCP writes:
"Dude, you just don't get it. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, etc. are like grand chess masters. They are like 10 steps ahead of you. You're already like checkmated, and you don't even like know it."
They did manage to get a black guy who's middle name is Hussein elected.. that's really no easy feat
USA=CCCP | 02.10.09 - 10:16 pm | #
Total Laugh Riot!!!! I love this site!
ppk, I agree, he must nationalize soon. The GOP is hammering away as hard as they can with the "Socialism" meme. Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything...
Feck, wouldn't there be a dozen people getting up to do this, without any prompting?
good night all.
chinese are not sophisticated investors
as oil countries
SWF was all hype
Barley, didn't we know that already though?
Comrade Kristina
No I dont think so. It has been discussed and ideas floated. But the moves today says active intervention. Understand there was a load of stuff to go on sale today. But, the moves were so, well, different.
And now, we aim to go out to borrow more. Once the reality of lower rates and huge borrowing collide, it will be very different. The par value may not chnage but the cost to get there may prove painful at best and at worst not do-able.
In the case of Sweden, overnight rates reached nearly 100% to get the cash to finance current accounts let alone prospective liabilites.
Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:46 pm | #
CK - I'll bet the exact opposite is true. At that point, people will do anything.
Did I mention that the city reservoir is still half-full of cherry Kool-Aid?
Some people doubted the veracity of my claim that visible minorities make 3/5ths of the average white income in canada. Well here is the link-
Earnings and Incomes of Canadians Over the Past Quarter Century, 2006 Census: Findings
Earnings and Incomes of Canadians Over the Past Quarter Century, 2006 Census: Earnings
Gap in earnings widens between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers
During the past quarter century, the earnings gap between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers widened significantly.
In 1980, recent immigrant men who had some employment income earned 85 cents for each dollar received by Canadian-born men. By 2005, the ratio had dropped to 63 cents. The corresponding numbers for recent immigrant women were 85 cents and 56 cents, respectively.
The gap widened even though the educational attainment of recent immigrant earners rose much faster than that of their Canadian-born counterparts, during this 25-year period.7
Earnings disparities between recent immigrants and Canadian-born workers increased not only during the two previous decades, but also in recent years.
While recent immigrant men earned only about 63 cents for every dollar earned by their Canadian-born counterparts in 2005, the corresponding number was 67 cents in 2000.
Recent immigrant women also lost ground relative to their Canadian-born counterparts in recent years. In 2000, they earned 65 cents for each dollar received by Canadian-born women, compared to 56 cents in 2005.
The gap in median earnings between recent immigrant men and women and their Canadian-born counterparts widened both for individuals with a university degree and for those with no university degree.
ight Mike!
"what makes you think Americans have anywhere near the highest standard of living?"
I measure my standard of living in carbon emissions.
Feck: Are we talking about Los Angeles, or one of those little "we're different" cities?
bond guy 10:40 pm - Stupid or nor, these are not nice things to say before two important auctions - 10yr and 30yr - coming up in the next two days.
Mr. Geithner, your call has been answered.
China is re-asserting itself, not just worrying about the MTM value of its portfolio
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
Feckless Ness | 02.10.09 - 10:45 pm | #
Yeah, that could be a bit of a sticky wicket.
We're different, all right.
bond guy -
Do you think the Fed has started to buy Treasuries already?
And if/once they do, how will it change the landscape?
Honest, as god as my witness I actually saw a "W" '04 sticker on a lexus the other day...it looked brand new-the sticker that is...
BTW anyone get there statements already?...that "oh shit" moment for the positively uninformed is going on across the country as we speak.
Ciao
MS
Mike in Long Island
Yes, very good guitarists. I'm going to have to delve more deeply. Thank you.
yogi,
"Even a squirrel knows for every credit there is a debit."
Yep, and for every 22 there is a nut.
Nostrovia,
" make 3/5ths of the average"
interesting conflation of ancestry and nationality
both sides are wrong.
tax cuts won't solve it.
pretending it can be fixed with massive spending increases wont solve it.
paying off govt debt and letting bad business go bankrupt is the best way.
Income gap in Canada (average income)
"Canadian" (white)
with a University degree
Men 62,566
Women 44,545
Recent Immigrants (mostly non-white)
with a University degree
Men 30,332\t
Women 18,969
Barley writes:
"homedad43 - watched the 10 year today with unusual focus...something went on which leads me to believe that quan. easing is happening now. This leads me to conclude appetite for more is waining and yields must move up..."
What happened today is that the market was severely unimpressed with the bailout plan, and people suddenly remembered that the economy is going into the tank. There were a lot of profitable Treasury shorts to cover.
But you're right - quantitative easing is going on. But it's been going on since fed funds hit the zero bound. The only change will be whether the Fed attempts to cap "long term" Treasury rates by buying a lot of "long-term" paper ("long term" may only be 3-year maturity paper in this case).
Am I in a time warp?
Thanks for clarifying Barley.
sportsfan writes:
Sportsfan - You're sounding a lot like those you criticize. Just sayin'.
Joe | 02.10.09 - 10:19 pm | #
Well, Joe, I've seen what happens when people don't speak up. I'll keep speaking up until I die or they cart me off sooner. I've had more than enough, I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more.
sportsfan | 02.10.09 - 10:22 pm | #
sportsfan - love you, ma
Geithner spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, where he studied hyperinflation.
In March 2008, he arranged the rescue and sale of Bear Stearns and later, in the same year, he is believed to have played a pivotal role in both the decision to bail out AIG as well as the government decision not to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy and to help fuel the fires of hyperinflation.
Income gap in Canada (average income)
"Canadian" (white)
with no University degree
Men 40,235\t
Women 25,590\t
Recent Immigrants (mostly non-white)
with no University degree
Men 24,470
Women 14,233
Yeah yogi, haloscan is eating posts, it got one of mine just now.
Can one clarify barley?
What might you look for in real time to get a better feel?
homedad43
I am expecting a burt. Yup a burp. Somebody somewhere will pause. Zero trades or moves in yields and very, very low volume. This will cause profound effects. Volume=appetite
I dont think it will be the Chinese but rather the Japanese.
Yes, yogi, it's called BEER!
** Sorry, should read:
Geithner spent most of his childhood living outside the United States, including present-day Zimbabwe, where he studied hyperinflation and tax evasion.
"ppk, I agree, he must nationalize soon. The GOP is hammering away as hard as they can with the "Socialism" meme. Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything..."
I think the opposite is true.. once the Shit really hits the fan people will agree to anything
I was referring to the devil's work but that was weird.
MLM-
I'll respond to that....I think they've done it already. 10y sure looks goosed to me. Sharp spike up and then this slow bleed off until the next sharp spike.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TNX#chart4:symbol=^tnx;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Speaking to the action of the start of this year.....
I think we get 7 year notes soon if not mistaken. BTW dropping the market was designed to scare money into these auctions.
Gold butt plugs notwithstanding...
Ciao
MS
Jeez, I hate Haloscan.
bondguy - thanks for the note on Barley's tbond action.
Ness - have been at town meeting where constituent did bring in retained lawyer but the emotional impact on most came from speaking residents.
Do understand your concern and honestly, would take the safe ground.
MS - know someone who took my advice to protect self and unfortunately didn't read the fine print that the "conservative" fund was still 70% stock. Lost a bundle...
Not really off topic, but out of the flow -
I've been reading the IHT coverage of Parliament's grilling of RBS and HBOS bankers.
British bankers face the sharp end of Parliament - The New York Times
Which says, in part:
And while the executives - coached by the lawyers and public relations consultants that sat behind them - offered up the apologies that were demanded of them, they also showed flashes of defiance as they claimed they were doing the best they could but were undone by the fall of Lehman and the panic that ensued - events that no one could have foreseen, they said.
It sounds familiar, and I have never quite gone with those who are satisfied to say only that these people have been wrong, or even that they were warned. The central problem for me is that they undertook a course of action without due consideration. When you're at this level of responsibility, you do not set a course without fully understanding the downside.
They are bad people, bad bankers. I don't accept that apologies are in order. Apologies are, under the circumstances, ridiculous.
"Why do we even care about Germany - let 'em deal with Russia themselves."
True, and they get to deal with Ireland, Greece, the UK, and now Iceland. Poland will need a little help too. Should keep them busy for a while.
And their capital equipment exports to China are cliff diving too. Too bad, so sad.
Auto exports will help though. Not.
Yup, everything is swell in Deutschland.
Yes, yogi, it's called BEER!
Comrade Kristina
lol!
(but I'm right...currently enjoying a nice cup of Earl Grey w/ a tad of lemon)
USA=CCCP, Bush is still in power. This is the same crap sandwich from the guy pulling the levers at the NY Fed for Paulson.
What I'd give for some honest liberals who would come in and do a proper nationalization.
The link, again:
British bankers face the sharp end of Parliament - The New York Times
bond guy writes:
...As for the responsible Teutonic economy, we'll see how a growth strategy based upon capital equipment exports is going to work out in the next couple of years.
Ever heared that the Chineese have plenty of money with which they will enhance/industrialize their own economy (rather than burn it in Treasuries) and thus a need for said capital equipment ?
Much better investment for them as Treasuries are !!
Off to bed for us farmer-types. I'm between books, so I'll dust off my copy of Distant Mirror for another read. When I hooked up with my partner, she had a copy as well. How can you pass up a person who reads medieval disaster porn....
BTW, thanks Nova, for the good reads at afterthecrash.net
Six months down the road when U6 is hovering near 20% and the banking system is still completely FUBAR, it will be near impossible to get people behind anything...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.10.09 - 10:46 pm | #
Precisely. Right now it's still the Bush economy. A year or two out, fairly or unfairly, it's going to be the Obama economy. Yes, now is the time for action.
Barley:
Okay, I can deal with that.
Thanks
Here is how the proposed stress-testing will work. No wonder the market was so impressed.
Feb. 10 ( Bloomberg
) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by regulators, may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said.
The companies needs will depend largely on the direction of home prices, Lockhart said in an interview in Las Vegas yesterday. His comments followed statements from Fannie Mae in November and Freddie Mac Chairman John Koskinen last week that the governments funding commitment through 2009 may fall short of what the companies need to make good on their obligations.
When we sized the amount in September, we obviously looked at stress tests and what was happening in the marketplace, Lockhart said. Theres been some significant events since then that werent in our forecast.
BTW dropping the market was designed to scare money into these auctions.
MS | 02.10.09 - 10:58 pm | #
I haven't looked at an auction calendar, but that kind of strategy wouldn't get them past next month. Do you think they're expecting aliens to land with gold butt plug replicators between now and then?
BEER it is! Time for mine.
"Theres been some significant events since then that werent in our forecast"
Honest, I did not see the train coming when I tried to cross the road!
LOL!
fdjakjfl writes:
...Can you spell my name with a "h" interspersed ? Does that ring a bell ?
WHINER ???
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tja, that's where NOVA would put the h.
A dope simply remains a dope.
To clarify:
Corn meal and barley are, perhaps, the most commonly used. ... Their digestibility depends largely on proper preparation and cooking. ... It is then strained through cheese cloth, and is clarified by boiling it with pieces of raw potato ...
I am so gonna laugh when I hear something verbally talk about Gold butt plugs. My MIL? (sent her an email with link to the Nationalization article on CR).
How 'bout it Paul?
Would the folks at the NYT let that one in or is too off-color?
At least use the Hoopajoops as an example of satire...
Barley,
Why are you so quite? don't you like statistics?
bond guy-
May be you can clear something up for me.....The 3 year had yet another indirect bid and more of it was accepted than from the primary's. Is this the primary's low-balling to try and catch a deal? By accepting more of the indirect bid I'm supposed to believe that "them furniners" decided to buy all of a sudden..which I have a hard time grasping....or is this just more of the Fed making there own bids at terms that are better for them?
Any idea's or am I thinking too much about it...appreciate any feedback.
Ciao
MS
@ 1 currency almost [yogi]
LOL
Until you've lost your job as a white collar worker, or lost all your savings, or lost your home equity or seen the non-accept from college for the kids due to inabiltiy to pay, or lost your savings helping your in laws survive cancer - until it hits YOU. And you are willing to fly, drive, walk to your representative and grab them by the necktie and say NO MORE. Until then , None of these 535 Mandarins downtown, 1 mile from where I live is going to do a goddam thing execpt make sure they get elected next time. I have sat in front of Jim Clyburn, Majority Whip, James Webb, Va senator, and others and asked them to think for themselves and they say"I rely on my staff and my resources for information."
Why don't all of you reading this post come to DC and pin them down? I am exhausted from it - I told Karl D. I am done. I told my daughters I am done - I am too old and too sick to fight this battle anymore. Viacondios.Paricio a Mexico
lucifer,
I notice you mention "recent" immigrants, not all immigrants.
How about posting the wages AFTER immigrants have been in Canada for 5 or 10 years.
I worked at a software company in Toronto that used to hire newer immigrants because they could offer them less.
Funny thing is that all of them are now making well above median income and WAY above what they started at.
I can't help that you got shat on in Canada and had the same wage 5 years after you arrived. Perhaps your skills were lacking or people got sick of your carrying the racism chip on your shoulder? It can be visible in the work place you know?
But plenty of other immigrants did manage it.
Imagine that, coming to a new country and having to start out at the bottom. I guess that's weird to some people.
Barley,
A bit late for Earl Grey for me. But a nice green tea is good for digestion.
burnside,
"When you're at this level of responsibility, you do not set a course without fully understanding the downside.:
I think they can get sucked into easy money and a hot table like anyone. I've seen it. I'm not completely discounting what you say, and there is good evidence to support your position...but I'm not sure...
Nostrovia,
"USA=CCCP, Bush is still in power. This is the same crap sandwich from the guy pulling the levers at the NY Fed for Paulson.
What I'd give for some honest liberals who would come in and do a proper nationalization."
I'm not a fan of Timmy... I'm wondering how long it will take Obama to put him under the bus.. Obama's had no problems putting peopel under the bus in the past
sorry...gold butt plug reference was from earlier today....made me laugh.
homedad-
sorry to hear that and even if they read the fine print it's very likely it still wouldn't tell them much...
Bank of Serta works for me....
Ciao
MS
MrM writes:
"bond guy 10:40 pm - Stupid or nor, these are not nice things to say before two important auctions - 10yr and 30yr - coming up in the next two days."
It makes no sense whatsoever for reserve managers to buy 30-year paper. Those auctions have to clear without that bid; the only question is how much of a spread (slope) over short-term paper is needed to do it.
MLM writes:
"bond guy -
Do you think the Fed has started to buy Treasuries already?
And if/once they do, how will it change the landscape?"
Their balance sheet used to be 100% Treasury paper (and lending against Treasury paper). They've actually had to sell a lot to get the private sector paper onto their balance sheet.
If weak nominal economic growth continues (i.e. weak real growth plus no or negative inflation), they have little choice but to expand their balance sheet. The choice is either to buy Treasury long-term paper (central banks and money market funds are snapping up all the short-term stuff), or "private sector" paper (if you count Agency bonds as "private sector").
Either choice should help lower mortgage rates ("all else equal"), which is what they want. But it remains very uncertain whether they are willing to buy in sufficient size to guarantee mortgage rates stay at a certain level.
Which means that mortgage/Treasury rates can still go up; their buying will just mean that the rise is less than it would have otherwise been. Which is a way of saying that the environment will not appear structurally different.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Barley,
A bit late for Earl Grey for me
Had a late dinner and its going to be a late night so Earl Grey is just fine
China will buy oil futures, no?
fried writes:
...Yup, everything is swell in Deutschland...
I am not aware that we have condemmed our next two or three generations into debt servitude (like a nation of junkies has).
Nytol.
Nostrovia,
...may need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government if the housing market continues to deteriorate...
MrM | 02.10.09 - 11:01 pm | #
The proper reading of this is ...will need more than the $200 billion in funding pledged by the U.S. government when the housing market continues to deteriorate...
The last couple years you could do this with pretty much any cautionary statement by any official and come out with a decent gauge of where things were heading, because their worst-case scenario always turned out to be optimistic.
Does anybody else think the libertarian's reality is all that is being worked toward at this point?? I mean, we are looking down the barrel(s) of an austerity shotgun, and our current two party system is arguing over the relative benefits of using either the Chase Platinum card or the Capitol One card to pay off the AMEX bill?
You Dems and Repubs realize where this all goes, right?
Nah, it more fun to whine, cry, and gnash your teeth so as to look relevant and in control to your constituency, all the while uttering empty threats.
If thing get real bad, you are aware that your home address and your party affiliation is public record right??
Arise zombies!!! Act alive!!!
werner,
Blow dude, you don't even know your own country's stats.
United States \t60.80 \t73.2 \t61.5
Nicaragua \t62.90 \t
Mauritius \t63.10 \t
Portugal \t63.60 \t70.9
France \t63.90 \t72.5 \t65.2
Canada \t64.20 \t63.0 \t60.7
Uruguay \t64.80 \t
Germany \t64.90 \t64.8 \t76.4
Debt to GDP increasing order.
List of countries by public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Give it a rest dude.
Nostrovia,
Which is a way of saying that the environment will not appear structurally different.
Bond guy, what are your thoughts on the dollar impact of the Fed buying Treasurys? I'm starting to think that this is the way they will monetize the crisis. It will keep rates down but devalue at the same time.
"I am not aware that we have condemmed our next two or three generations into debt servitude (like a nation of junkies has)."
And we are in the process of upping the ante on that servitude by an unprecedented magnitude.
We are so undisciplined. Consume now. Tomorrow be damned.
What's the deal with gold butt plugs? Did I miss the origination of this meme?
MS writes:
"bond guy-
May be you can clear something up for me.....The 3 year had yet another indirect bid and more of it was accepted than from the primary's. Is this the primary's low-balling to try and catch a deal? By accepting more of the indirect bid I'm supposed to believe that "them furniners" decided to buy all of a sudden..which I have a hard time grasping....or is this just more of the Fed making there own bids at terms that are better for them?"
I don't track the auction statistics; I've always thought that's only useful for the sell side (they need to know how the auction has been distributed so that they have a feel for who has the paper).
But the foreigners with large USD holdings have to buy short-term paper like 3-years, where else do they put the money? Putting it into a bank account is not what a risk-averse institution wants to do right now (the bank can go bust). Official dollar holders could presumably leave the dollars on deposit at the New York Fed - and earn 0%. Not too attractive.
"Does anybody else think the libertarian's reality is all that is being worked toward at this point?? I mean, we are looking down the barrel(s) of an austerity shotgun, and our current two party system is arguing over the relative benefits of using either the Chase Platinum card or the Capitol One card to pay off the AMEX bill?
You Dems and Repubs realize where this all goes, right?
Nah, it more fun to whine, cry, and gnash your teeth so as to look relevant and in control to your constituency, all the while uttering empty threats.
If thing get real bad, you are aware that your home address and your party affiliation is public record right??"
It's much more likely we'll head back towards facism.. and go a lot further than we did under bush
Recent Immigrants...with no University degree
Men 24,470
Women 14,233
Those incomes are consistent with what native-born, no experience, no degree workers get.
Cheers.
bond guy-
thanks....a bit clearer now. Sounds like the FOREX market...."gotta buy something"...
Ciao
MS
Isn't the statement "the credit markets are frozen" a fallacy? Anyone can go to a bank with the title to their Bentley or Mercadies as collateral and get a loan. I have an 810 point credit score and can get $27,500 on a single credit card. I can get 100k on credit cards no questions asked. Why do the keep promoting the fallacy that credit is frozen? To me credit is completely thawed.
Pissed off in California,
You want more stats... you will get more stats!
//How about posting the wages AFTER immigrants have been in Canada for 5 or 10 years.//
Hey, maybe your wife will find a job in her field soon. I do not give a f**k about the opinion of any canuck.
//Perhaps your skills were lacking or people got sick of your carrying the racism chip on your shoulder? It can be visible in the work place you know?//
Statistics says otherwise.
//But plenty of other immigrants did manage it.//
If canuck f**ker do not kiss the asses of people like me, who is gonna pay taxes to keep them going? YOU?
Better learn to respect me, your governments solvency depends on it!
//Imagine that, coming to a new country and having to start out at the bottom. I guess that's weird to some people.//
Thanks bond guy.
USA=CCCP,
Gotta have money or in kind donations by loyal followers for fascism, and the cash we don't have for long.
Fascism under a warlord system...well, there you might have a point.
No.. read the statistics!
//Those incomes are consistent with what native-born, no experience, no degree workers get.//
"What's the deal with gold butt plugs?"
Trend Search
No, no.
N thanks necessary, Hoop.
Proceed at your own risk.
.
homedad43 writes:
Jeez, I hate Haloscan.
.
One thing we all agree on.
Broward,
I've heard of "polishing a turd" but sheesh.......
Misean,
Yes of course. Absolutely. They're subject to every human foible and tropism. But once you depart middle management, good judgment also includes looking out for the soundness of the enterprise. I hold that they were promoted above their abilities. Not bush league, but not CEO material either.
What gets me is the repeated demands for apology, the I-was-right-and-you-were-wrong trope. It's beside the point - these guys just weren't up to the mark. Fire 'em.
Oh. And I was just lifting a cup of green tea to my lips as I read yours. :
lucifer,
The funny thing about your diatribe is that my wife is non-white. She had no problem finding and keeping a job. Same with her brother.
Same with the Indians and Pakistanis and Eastern Europeans and South Americans I know.
Perhaps meds will help with your altered state?
Night all...gunna be a long night going to make popcorn (yes, AllenM, real popcorn!)
Hoops was that not you earlier?
Folks,just think of Werner as Jas Jain in whiteface,only dumb.
No.. read the statistics!
I have read them - you are fabricating something that is not there.
Immigrants with low education do not generally have valuable work experience, and are closest in resemblance to recent high school grads who have chosen work over further education. That class of worker is lucky to make over $20k, according to the official statistics, which is 100% in line with the numbers you yourself quoted.
Cheers.
michael-
Because calling it a solvency issue would not be from the playbook. I've argued with people about this for two year's...but they believe it's about credit and only that. Pretty soon it will become that on a much larger scale as well. 700+ scores and you have no problem...go down even 10 points and that adds almost a full % point to a 30 y fixed in most quotes without application being processed.
Ciao
MS
I've heard of "polishing a turd" but sheesh.......
Senorito American Mugabe
.
The boys on Mythbusters can do that for ya:
Mythbusters: Polishing a Turd : Video : Discovery Channel
I know, I have read a lot of your archived posts. So tell me, why did you move to the USA? ya..
//The funny thing about your diatribe is that my wife is non-white. She had no problem finding and keeping a job. Same with her brother.//
That is right.. the ones "you know". Sample size?
//Same with the Indians and Pakistanis and Eastern Europeans and South Americans I know.//
Nope, I have to see the economic collapse, misery, suffering and destruction of that group. The good news is that since late Nov 08 to Jan 09, it has started!
//Perhaps meds will help with your altered state?//