We were more prosperous with protectionism, seems to me. econonoob | 02.11.09 - 9:05 am | #
Without trade, your $500.00 PC, with the effective power of an old Cray supercomputer, would cost about what an old Cray supercomputer cost. I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
What CR consistently fails to point out is that the declines in the trade deficit are relatively minor in the historic context of such a large and continuing trade deficit.
It's the cumulative size of the trade deficit that matters most, just as it's the cumulative size of the debt that matters most. There's really very little evidence that the U.S. is escaping a destructive cycle of trade deficits.
No country in history has ever run up such a large trade deficit so fast.
I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
It's all relative. You can't yearn and feel poor for something that does not exist. So it will always feel poor looking backwards. And if it doesn't feel poor looking backwards, you know you really are in a depression.
I don't know about computers as a great example of development acceleration from trade. Computing itself led to the development of better computing. We still only offshore a miniscule amount of chip design, even today.
Stylish clothing for the masses is probably a better example. For what that's worth.
econonoob(Unrated) writes: We were more prosperous with protectionism, seems to me.
"Free trade" is a paid shill for neocolonialism. They are the international institutional equivalent of CNBC. I've got too much going on in my life to spend hours recounting how multinationals, WW2 victor nations and international financiers conspired to mire the developing world in resource extraction poverty.
When tiger-type development proved that you could actually have developing world economies that functioned and improved considerably in short periods of time, and the collapse of the Soviet Union made development and not playing mom and dad against one another the more profitable route, it got even more broken. Then vendor financing by exporter nations crept in. Note how being milked for your productive factors (in this case capital) doesn't feel so good.
Now that the shoe is on the other foot and everyone is losing from the free trade regime, rather than it being a fig leaf for a stick-up operation, it will collapse in short order while a bunch of robbers decry the short-sighted populism of it all.
Not that trade arrangements between some, many or even all countries in some places and times might not be wholly beneficial for all involved, but the current global trade regime is just broken and it has been for a long long time. Since the WW2 powers decided to carve the world up like a chicken between them in a fit of ego, at least, and probable since the Concert of Powers era.
The only reason you should support it is if you are Davos Man and your living depends on making fees from the international system of economic exploitation. I dunno about economic nationalism, that's a loaded term and presupposes some things about the state regime, but IMO economic localism is absolutely the rational course.
rich wrote:
What CR consistently fails to point out is that the declines in the trade deficit are relatively minor in the historic context of such a large and continuing trade deficit.
There's really very little evidence that the U.S. is escaping a destructive cycle of trade deficits.
Bingo, rich! We have a winner. Agree whole heartedly. So the ship is sinking slightly slower than we thought...how comforting.
Breaking sounds from the financial front?
Can someone write a plugin for say firefox that whenever Bernanke starts a new loan program like talf, xyz,operation 12 trillion or the likes a fart noise would blast out of my speakers? hahaha.
Does Timmay need to grow a beard, or shave his head ? \t bearly | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:16 am | #
## If you mean Secy. of Treas. Geithner, anything that lends gravitas to his demeanor would help. Perhaps an eyepatch accompanied by an obscure story of how he got it while saving a small country. His clenched jaw delivery could be improved as well. Unless we weave a mandibular trauma into the eye patch story.
Byzantine: Would you agree that this is the end-game of the Cold War. This is the last segment standing from the structure that was built by the two adversaries.
Will historians see our system collapse as inevitable?
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: Bravo. That said not sure how the peasants will revolt in the present situation.
States require two things to continue to exist -- that people believe in them, and that they have revenue streams sufficient to provide political goods equal to or greater than to the minimum expectations of their populace.
A little nuance to your observation that most chip design is still local to US. No, no, no. The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place.
Dr. Adrian Rogers (1931–2005) : “You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
...Excluding petroleum, the trade deficit ...
...although the sharp declines in both imports and exports is very concerning...
Equally concerning is the despicable american habit of faking statistics !
After food, gas and what not else has been EXCLUDED from the PCI (and thus rendered it useless) , in true american manipulative style now CR excludes petroleum from the trade deficit.
Looks a lot better ?
Americans just can not quit manipulating and are oblivious to the fact that they only ruin themselfs by robbing themselfs of true and meaningful statistics. Without true and meaningful statistics (and thus true and meaningful information) a modern nation can not exist !
The honest way is to lay everything open in detail, and from that basis make your (informed) conclusions, rather than excluding the inconvenient stuff and then peddle the (information wise now useless) rest . The latter method is what you do in propaganda !
Just as Americans can not disabuse themselfs of their addiction to credit, they can not disabuse themselfs of manipulation !
States require two things to continue to exist -- that people believe in them, and that they have revenue streams sufficient to provide political goods equal to or greater than to the minimum expectations of their populace.
Never underestimate the populace who voted for dubya twice!
Kinda lacking a couple of arrows, like from revenue to expenditure, ex/im to revenue, and the lack of a demand dimension in the presence of excessive household and corporate debt.
Seems to me that's where the action is. No dimensions on insolvent banks or bond market functions either.
Paradigm Lost(Unrated) writes:
Byzantine: Would you agree that this is the end-game of the Cold War. This is the last segment standing from the structure that was built by the two adversaries.
Just so. The post-cold war era has shown that the structured global environment of the cold war -- brought on by incomplete development and the expended resources of the two adversaries in seeking a stage to confront one-another that was defined by the structured nature of that conflict -- is not able to continue to exist without the Soviet input.
Which, frankly, it never could anyway. The Soviets were the secondary party in the dance and it killed them straightaway. We lasted a little bit longer as "victor" but the whole "of what" question loomed large and we never had anything remotely like an answer. In the end, our budget was just as destroyed as the Soviet one, as our victory over them was a pennant that justified unlimited commitment of resources as a valid structure of endeavor to achieve national goals.
The conservative Schoolboy's Crusade in Iraq was to the necessary degree of mission and endeavor as an M-80 held against one's own eye is to a nuclear bomb detonated on the enemy capital.
The collapse into a less-structured international regime, probably with an incomplete "state system" and an emergent two-tier level of regional-local organization; this is just a matter of logistical eventuality. The question is, as we go through this "price discovery" process, what real economy is really under all the hype.
Without true and meaningful statistics (and thus true and meaningful information) a modern nation can not exist ! \t Werner | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:37 am | #
## genau! Always remember the adage: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
No, no, no. The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place.
That was long after we had a supercomputer on a desk though. That was around 2001.
Werner(Irritating) writes: Americans just can not quit manipulating and are oblivious to the fact that they only ruin themselfs by robbing themselfs of true and meaningful statistics.
All fact is political, Werner. Most models are reductionist falsehoods whose untruths lie in the realm of the commonly understood and accepted.
So people know, the railfax charts are updated to Jan 31. We are seeing a moderation in the dramatic uptrend in cargo flows, which is to be expected.
I think this is good in that we are definitely past the point of worrying about an immediate fulfillment chain collapse. I don't think you can make too much more out of it at this time. The second order effects are going to have to make themselves known.
Reporting the numbers with AND without petroleum is the only way to gauge the relative impact of petroleum imports on the balance of trade. The simple fact is, petroleum is a HUGE component of modern world trade (and not just for the US).
So while it might be "propaganda" to report only ONE set of numbers, it is surely NOT propaganda to report the relevant data in multiple ways, to highlight certain data sets. CR consistently presents the data in an informative and helpful way; whatever conclusions you draw need to be based on the evidence, and not on your well-advertised biases.
You fling accusations around constantly, without ever actually saying anything meaningful ABOUT THE DATA PRESENTED.
And the modern-day Smoots and Hawleys haven't even gotten started.
Actually this raises the question of how much a difference Smoot-Hawley made. Would the trade have gone down anyway?
From the Wiki:
the effective tariff rate was 13.5% in 1929 and 19.8% in 1933 with 63% of all imports being duty-free
6% tariffs on 1/3 of imported goods halfed world trade? I don't think so. In the view of the massive trade declines occuring now, with no tariff changes, I think we can confidently say the effect of Smoot-Hawley was small, perhaps negligible, compared to the actual trade changes.
Without trade, your $500.00 PC, with the effective power of an old Cray supercomputer, would cost about what an old Cray supercomputer cost. I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
Well, I guess it's a good thing that Intel is spending $7 billion on a new chip fab plant for their next generation CPUs... in the USA.
Werner is like the kid in school who never gets to hang with the "cool kids." All the girls he wants - snub him.
So he sits at his lunch table with the fatties and the 4 eyes and disses everyone else. Very German actually.
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WTF? Last I checked futures were 2-3% down, and yet the Dow spiked 80 points on 8m vol on the open??
The market can go anywhere day to day, because nobody cares about market fundamentals anymore. Nobody talks about revenues or earnings, or the direction of earnings, because that stuff is just too negative.
But the market is very over-valued relative to earnings and history. So, within a month or two, it is heading down.
[a handlebar moustache look would be fitting
Tim ]
Not bad, but I prefer the earlier suggestion to adopt the eyepatch look. Just seems more fitting for the position. Can move the Office of the Treasury Scty to LV at Treasure Island so he could watch the swashbuckler shows out of his window.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
...Werner. Most models are reductionist falsehoods whose untruths lie in the realm of the commonly understood and accepted...
I beg to differ CBR : Reductionist, yes, approximations, yes, but that is made out of necessity since you simply cannot encompass everything.
Falsehood is a different animal though : if you "spin/skew/..." something "intentionally" to make it look different.
Comment on Smoot-Hawley...I think economic historians are about to find out which came first...the chicken or the egg. I'm suspecting collapse of global trade came first.
## Nope. But it would help us understand how the economists got us into this mess. They should be removed from places where they might do more harm.
volker the viking | 02.11.09 - 9:19 am | #
"Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to consumers." -Alan Greenspan (At the Federal Reserve Systems Fourth Annual Community Affairs Research Conference, Washington, D.C. April 8, 2005)
I think we can confidently say the effect of Smoot-Hawley was small, perhaps negligible, compared to the actual trade changes. Fair Economist | Homepage | 02.11.09 - 9:55 am | #
Didn't other nations respond with their own trade sanctions, and isn't that where the real problem lay?
Well, I guess it's a good thing that Intel is spending $7 billion on a new chip fab plant for their next generation CPUs... in the USA. Zoom Zoom | 02.11.09 - 9:57 am | #
How else to ensure you can embed whatever they may have signed on to with the DHS/CIA/NSA without any undue difficulty?
blackhat writes:
...The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place...
blackhat, having myselfs been involved in chip design, I agree with you that the "high value" part (i.e. innovation, complex designs, architectural stuff, and the control/management of the whole process) is still the domain of americans (although a good deal of them were not born in america!) and the more mundane parts of design and most of the verification is outsourced. Both, for the product and the infrastructure/tools.
When I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Dear XXXXX,
This is XXXX from Ningbo Beilun Metal stamping factory. We have known your professional experiences and sales skills, we are wondering whether you are interested in our business. We will appreciate it if you could act as our sales rep to help us to promote our current products categories. For details of terms and conditions, it is negotiable and we could discuss afterwards. Moreover, if you have Other RFQ you or your customers would like to develop with our factory, please let us know and we would like to provide you high quality products and outstanding service. Hopefully, we could develop cooperation relationship soon. Yours sincerely, XXXXX www.nbstamping.com 2009-02-11 ç½æé®ç®±ï¼ä¸å½ç¬¬ä¸å¤§çµåé®ä»¶æå¡å
When I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Dear XXXXX,
This is XXXX from Ningbo Beilun Metal stamping factory. We have known your professional experiences and sales skills, we are wondering whether you are interested in our business. We will appreciate it if you could act as our sales rep to help us to promote our current products categories. For details of terms and conditions, it is negotiable and we could discuss afterwards. Moreover, if you have Other RFQ you or your customers would like to develop with our factory, please let us know and we would like to provide you high quality products and outstanding service. Hopefully, we could develop cooperation relationship soon. Yours sincerely, XXXXX www.nbstamping.com
dryfly | 02.11.09 - 10:24 am | #
Dryfly, they hired someone who took your advice of the other day and promised to "bring them new business!"
Many observors, prognosticators, etc., talked about this moment for years back - at least to 2003 pretty non-stop. The current account could not be sustained, a great rebalance must occur, etc., etc. So is what's really happening just a huge "correction" in global trade?
The China-USA west coast convergence definitely looks threatened. By 2014 after all this plays out, there will be new wider canals at Panama capable of handling the new "panamax" container vessels just in time for delivery of over 100 new mega-containerships owned by European and Chinese companies to ply the China - Suez - Europe - US East Coast route. Houston and Charleston, SC, look set to boom. California (LA-Long Beach, Bay Area) set to decline.
And the modern-day Smoots and Hawleys haven't even gotten started.
so cr believes in the second half recovery, eh?
Sloppy thirds??
the net effect of this trends toward deflatio
We were more prosperous with protectionism, seems to me.
for the unwashed (like me) here's a primer:
IS-LM model as a macroeconomics graph: an interactive map pointing to variables and data
We were more prosperous with protectionism, seems to me.
econonoob | 02.11.09 - 9:05 am | #
Without trade, your $500.00 PC, with the effective power of an old Cray supercomputer, would cost about what an old Cray supercomputer cost. I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
Is it just me looking for any bright spot, or is it nice to see imports falling faster than exports?
Erin looks like she had a very late night in Washington
Erin looks like she had a very late night in Washington
\t Tim | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:08 am | #
## She may be going goth.
Off topic: the eight original TARPsters are doing congressional testimony today.
CRbot presents, (with apologies in advance to FFDIC), a new feature called:
F'D FDIC: Breaking sounds from the bankerfront...
February 10, 2009 - Interagency Statement on the Financial Stability Plan
You're WELCOME, crispy&cole. I very much hope you're satisfied now.
http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/essays/is- lm2.htm
volker the viking | 02.11.09 - 9:07 am | #
This link doesn't seem to work. As a conservative, would I even be interested in it?
Damn chart is too hard to read this way. Petroleum needs to be volume not $ based to get a real sense between the two (ex-pet vs pet).
Nostrovia,
What CR consistently fails to point out is that the declines in the trade deficit are relatively minor in the historic context of such a large and continuing trade deficit.
It's the cumulative size of the trade deficit that matters most, just as it's the cumulative size of the debt that matters most. There's really very little evidence that the U.S. is escaping a destructive cycle of trade deficits.
No country in history has ever run up such a large trade deficit so fast.
Welcome to the Age of Inventory.
C
I got a good link for Volker's article:
http://www.economicswebinstitute.org:8080/essays/is-lm2.htm
I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
It's all relative. You can't yearn and feel poor for something that does not exist. So it will always feel poor looking backwards. And if it doesn't feel poor looking backwards, you know you really are in a depression.
I don't know about computers as a great example of development acceleration from trade. Computing itself led to the development of better computing. We still only offshore a miniscule amount of chip design, even today.
Stylish clothing for the masses is probably a better example. For what that's worth.
Comrade Darkness: I heard a comment on CNBC about a week ago that is appropriate to your post.
WARNING: Tanta Mixed Metaphor Ahead:
"There's some real meat on that silver lining."
Does Timmay need to grow a beard, or shave his head ?
Bankers across the pond are apologising like mad and saying they are sorry.
I wonder how today's hearing will be for the bankers here.
http://www.economicswebinstitute...says/is- lm2.htm
econonoob | 02.11.09 - 9:16 am | #
bookmarked for later.
econonoob(Unrated) writes:
We were more prosperous with protectionism, seems to me.
"Free trade" is a paid shill for neocolonialism. They are the international institutional equivalent of CNBC. I've got too much going on in my life to spend hours recounting how multinationals, WW2 victor nations and international financiers conspired to mire the developing world in resource extraction poverty.
When tiger-type development proved that you could actually have developing world economies that functioned and improved considerably in short periods of time, and the collapse of the Soviet Union made development and not playing mom and dad against one another the more profitable route, it got even more broken. Then vendor financing by exporter nations crept in. Note how being milked for your productive factors (in this case capital) doesn't feel so good.
Now that the shoe is on the other foot and everyone is losing from the free trade regime, rather than it being a fig leaf for a stick-up operation, it will collapse in short order while a bunch of robbers decry the short-sighted populism of it all.
Not that trade arrangements between some, many or even all countries in some places and times might not be wholly beneficial for all involved, but the current global trade regime is just broken and it has been for a long long time. Since the WW2 powers decided to carve the world up like a chicken between them in a fit of ego, at least, and probable since the Concert of Powers era.
The only reason you should support it is if you are Davos Man and your living depends on making fees from the international system of economic exploitation. I dunno about economic nationalism, that's a loaded term and presupposes some things about the state regime, but IMO economic localism is absolutely the rational course.
It's all relative.
Comrade Darkness | 02.11.09 - 9:16 am | #
True enough. Just ask the Amish.
thanks econonoob!
______________________________________________________________________
This link doesn't seem to work. As a conservative, would I even be interested in it?
\t xxxxx | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:11 am | #
## Nope. But it would help us understand how the economists got us into this mess. They should be removed from places where they might do more harm.
rich wrote:
What CR consistently fails to point out is that the declines in the trade deficit are relatively minor in the historic context of such a large and continuing trade deficit.
There's really very little evidence that the U.S. is escaping a destructive cycle of trade deficits.
Bingo, rich! We have a winner. Agree whole heartedly. So the ship is sinking slightly slower than we thought...how comforting.
Breaking sounds from the financial front?
Can someone write a plugin for say firefox that whenever Bernanke starts a new loan program like talf, xyz,operation 12 trillion or the likes a fart noise would blast out of my speakers? hahaha.
but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
I know, I know. We'd have to settle for 500 songs on our iPods instead of 2,000.
Does Timmay need to grow a beard, or shave his head ?
\t bearly | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:16 am | #
## If you mean Secy. of Treas. Geithner, anything that lends gravitas to his demeanor would help. Perhaps an eyepatch accompanied by an obscure story of how he got it while saving a small country. His clenched jaw delivery could be improved as well. Unless we weave a mandibular trauma into the eye patch story.
"Free trade" is a paid shill for neocolonialism.
Bravo. That said not sure how the peasants will revolt in the present situation.
IMO economic localism is absolutely the rational course.
| \t02.11.09 - 9:19 am | #
\t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage
## Yep. And the only sustainable one.
Byzantine: Would you agree that this is the end-game of the Cold War. This is the last segment standing from the structure that was built by the two adversaries.
Will historians see our system collapse as inevitable?
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
Bravo. That said not sure how the peasants will revolt in the present situation.
States require two things to continue to exist -- that people believe in them, and that they have revenue streams sufficient to provide political goods equal to or greater than to the minimum expectations of their populace.
Will historians see our system collapse as inevitable?
Does Karl Marx count as an historian ??
Will historians see our system collapse as inevitable?
Paradigm Lost | 02.11.09 - 9:26 am | #
Chalmer Johnson's view. old links
Can We End the American Empire Before It Ends Us? | | AlterNet
Chalmers Johnson: Is America on the brink of destruction through imperial over-reach? - Late Night Live - 15 October 2007
Spook Central - Ghostbusters Cast & Crew - Peter MacNicol
Geithner's early career
bearly writes:
Does Timmay need to grow a beard, or shave his head ?
a handlebar moustache look would be fitting
six handle or nine handle today, folks?
Comrade Darkness,
A little nuance to your observation that most chip design is still local to US. No, no, no. The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place.
--bh
Dr. Adrian Rogers (1931–2005) : “You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
..and then there were derivatives and leverage.
Deferred Comp | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:31 am | #
## ROTFLMAO!!! Think Ghostbusters! Who ya gonna call?
six handle or nine handle today, folks?
Eric | 02.11.09 - 9:33 am | #
Capitulation only after AAPL is down to ~$60
...Excluding petroleum, the trade deficit ...
...although the sharp declines in both imports and exports is very concerning...
Equally concerning is the despicable american habit of faking statistics !
After food, gas and what not else has been EXCLUDED from the PCI (and thus rendered it useless) , in true american manipulative style now CR excludes petroleum from the trade deficit.
Looks a lot better ?
Americans just can not quit manipulating and are oblivious to the fact that they only ruin themselfs by robbing themselfs of true and meaningful statistics. Without true and meaningful statistics (and thus true and meaningful information) a modern nation can not exist !
The honest way is to lay everything open in detail, and from that basis make your (informed) conclusions, rather than excluding the inconvenient stuff and then peddle the (information wise now useless) rest . The latter method is what you do in propaganda !
Just as Americans can not disabuse themselfs of their addiction to credit, they can not disabuse themselfs of manipulation !
Sad story !
States require two things to continue to exist -- that people believe in them, and that they have revenue streams sufficient to provide political goods equal to or greater than to the minimum expectations of their populace.
Never underestimate the populace who voted for dubya twice!
Thanks Volker. We could all use a few laughs these days.
Werner:
Do yourself a favor and go look at China's trade numbers just out.
It is an eye opener.
About this chart:
http://www.economicswebinstitute...says/is- lm2.htm
econonoob | 02.11.09 - 9:16 am | #
Kinda lacking a couple of arrows, like from revenue to expenditure, ex/im to revenue, and the lack of a demand dimension in the presence of excessive household and corporate debt.
Seems to me that's where the action is. No dimensions on insolvent banks or bond market functions either.
A good try, but a bit 101.
C
After spending $9 trillion last fall it is fun to see the "conservatives" preach about deficits....HAHA
Paradigm Lost(Unrated) writes:
Byzantine: Would you agree that this is the end-game of the Cold War. This is the last segment standing from the structure that was built by the two adversaries.
Just so. The post-cold war era has shown that the structured global environment of the cold war -- brought on by incomplete development and the expended resources of the two adversaries in seeking a stage to confront one-another that was defined by the structured nature of that conflict -- is not able to continue to exist without the Soviet input.
Which, frankly, it never could anyway. The Soviets were the secondary party in the dance and it killed them straightaway. We lasted a little bit longer as "victor" but the whole "of what" question loomed large and we never had anything remotely like an answer. In the end, our budget was just as destroyed as the Soviet one, as our victory over them was a pennant that justified unlimited commitment of resources as a valid structure of endeavor to achieve national goals.
The conservative Schoolboy's Crusade in Iraq was to the necessary degree of mission and endeavor as an M-80 held against one's own eye is to a nuclear bomb detonated on the enemy capital.
The collapse into a less-structured international regime, probably with an incomplete "state system" and an emergent two-tier level of regional-local organization; this is just a matter of logistical eventuality. The question is, as we go through this "price discovery" process, what real economy is really under all the hype.
counterpointer: blame me. I hope you're picking up on my sarcasm.
_____________________________________________________
Without true and meaningful statistics (and thus true and meaningful information) a modern nation can not exist !
\t Werner | \t \t \t \t02.11.09 - 9:37 am | #
## genau! Always remember the adage: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
No, no, no. The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place.
That was long after we had a supercomputer on a desk though. That was around 2001.
totally ot
cr
thank you i was wondering why the only way i could get here was via my history.
got new url thanks agai
Popeye writes:
...Does Karl Marx count as an historian ??...
Haha, as whatever Karl Marx may count, he surely must almost die of laughter in his grave .
VHDL is a language to describe IC /ASIC hardware and thus it development would follow M$ vs linux analogy.
No, no hope there. W was right.
this sucker is comming down.
I wanna see them ask Blankfein why he sought bank holding company status.
Werner(Irritating) writes:
Americans just can not quit manipulating and are oblivious to the fact that they only ruin themselfs by robbing themselfs of true and meaningful statistics.
All fact is political, Werner. Most models are reductionist falsehoods whose untruths lie in the realm of the commonly understood and accepted.
Anonymous: Be a man & get a handle.
As for Dr. Adrian Rogers, I say, consider the source for that piece of claptrap:
Adrian Rogers
Anonymous writes:
Werner: Do yourself a favor and go look at China's trade numbers just out...
Nice example of the typical manipulative American trying to deflect attention .
I wanna see them ask Blankfein why he sought bank holding company status.
Apparatchik ZackAttack | Homepage | 02.11.09 - 9:47 am | #
"Because that's where the money is".
Anon: I think I misread your meaning. Did I? If so, I apologize.
The curve leading up to the cliff dive was clearly unsustainable.
The most powerful and wealthy nation in the world must absolutely command a trade surplus in order to survive indefinitely.
The deficit is actually much worse than what is shown because of the immense influx of foreign workers into the US over the last 20 years.
..Does Karl Marx count as an historian ??...
No, but he did prove time travel. No one could of been that right on in his analysis of capitalism 150 years earlier.
volker the viking writes:
...## genau! Always remember the adage: There are lies, damned lies and statistics...
Hihi, what about an updated version of that :
"There are lies, damned lies, statistics and Americans" ?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins:
The question is, as we go through this "price discovery" process, what real economy is really under all the hype.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
So people know, the railfax charts are updated to Jan 31. We are seeing a moderation in the dramatic uptrend in cargo flows, which is to be expected.
I think this is good in that we are definitely past the point of worrying about an immediate fulfillment chain collapse. I don't think you can make too much more out of it at this time. The second order effects are going to have to make themselves known.
Byz: Putin is gloating. Can you hear it in his comments recently?
Werner, give me a break.
Reporting the numbers with AND without petroleum is the only way to gauge the relative impact of petroleum imports on the balance of trade. The simple fact is, petroleum is a HUGE component of modern world trade (and not just for the US).
So while it might be "propaganda" to report only ONE set of numbers, it is surely NOT propaganda to report the relevant data in multiple ways, to highlight certain data sets. CR consistently presents the data in an informative and helpful way; whatever conclusions you draw need to be based on the evidence, and not on your well-advertised biases.
You fling accusations around constantly, without ever actually saying anything meaningful ABOUT THE DATA PRESENTED.
And the modern-day Smoots and Hawleys haven't even gotten started.
Actually this raises the question of how much a difference Smoot-Hawley made. Would the trade have gone down anyway?
From the Wiki:
the effective tariff rate was 13.5% in 1929 and 19.8% in 1933 with 63% of all imports being duty-free
6% tariffs on 1/3 of imported goods halfed world trade? I don't think so. In the view of the massive trade declines occuring now, with no tariff changes, I think we can confidently say the effect of Smoot-Hawley was small, perhaps negligible, compared to the actual trade changes.
Anon: I think I misread your meaning. Did I? If so, I apologize.
Don't worry about it.
There has never been a better time for outrage.
Without trade, your $500.00 PC, with the effective power of an old Cray supercomputer, would cost about what an old Cray supercomputer cost. I don't know what your definition of "prosperous" is, but our lifestyles would be significantly poorer.
Well, I guess it's a good thing that Intel is spending $7 billion on a new chip fab plant for their next generation CPUs... in the USA.
Byz: I agree with your comments. The neo-cons were dead men standing and didn't even know it. Dinosaurs nuked by the fall-of-the-Wall comet.
WTF? Last I checked futures were 2-3% down, and yet the Dow spiked 80 points on 8m vol on the open??
Bueller?
C
Werner is like the kid in school who never gets to hang with the "cool kids." All the girls he wants - snub him.
So he sits at his lunch table with the fatties and the 4 eyes and disses everyone else. Very German actually.
Some would argue that the depression caused Smoot-Hawley rather than the other way around.
New Thread: Commercial Mortgage Applications Off 80 Percent in Q4 ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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The market can go anywhere day to day, because nobody cares about market fundamentals anymore. Nobody talks about revenues or earnings, or the direction of earnings, because that stuff is just too negative.
But the market is very over-valued relative to earnings and history. So, within a month or two, it is heading down.
Hey CRbot
Can you add this
Werner writes "In Germany this would be forbidden."
[a handlebar moustache look would be fitting
Tim ]
Not bad, but I prefer the earlier suggestion to adopt the eyepatch look. Just seems more fitting for the position. Can move the Office of the Treasury Scty to LV at Treasure Island so he could watch the swashbuckler shows out of his window.
rich: look at gold now.
Byz: maybe it means the ports are clearing?
OT - CFTC Should Have Criminal Authority, Commissioner Chilton Says
CFTC Should Have Criminal Authority, Commissioner Chilton Says - Bloomberg.com
Maybe Madoff did something good after all.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
...Werner. Most models are reductionist falsehoods whose untruths lie in the realm of the commonly understood and accepted...
I beg to differ CBR : Reductionist, yes, approximations, yes, but that is made out of necessity since you simply cannot encompass everything.
Falsehood is a different animal though : if you "spin/skew/..." something "intentionally" to make it look different.
There is a clear distinction !
Falsehood is a different animal though : if you "spin/skew/..." something "intentionally" to make it look different.
It's called marketing and yes the US is the best at it.
Batemanimation 14: The Oracle with Max Keiser on Vimeo
GM billion dollars going to Brazil while the US gives them money here (animated max keiser)
Actually this raises the question of how much a difference Smoot-Hawley made. Would the trade have gone down anyway?
Smoot Hawley was a sideshow in the GD. Trade was ~ 5% of GDP just before the GD.
Simple people want simple explanations.
Comment on Smoot-Hawley...I think economic historians are about to find out which came first...the chicken or the egg. I'm suspecting collapse of global trade came first.
## Nope. But it would help us understand how the economists got us into this mess. They should be removed from places where they might do more harm.
volker the viking | 02.11.09 - 9:19 am | #
"Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. . . . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to consumers." -Alan Greenspan (At the Federal Reserve Systems Fourth Annual Community Affairs Research Conference, Washington, D.C. April 8, 2005)
I know, I know. We'd have to settle for 500 songs on our iPods instead of 2,000.
mal | 02.11.09 - 9:23 am | #
or 64k of memory vs. 2GByte. Some of us remember those days, and remember having to swap floppys to make OS-9 work.
Byzantine, you're a freakin genius. Most sincerely. Have you written any books?
I think we can confidently say the effect of Smoot-Hawley was small, perhaps negligible, compared to the actual trade changes.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 02.11.09 - 9:55 am | #
Didn't other nations respond with their own trade sanctions, and isn't that where the real problem lay?
Time to sweep Uncle Al into the dustheap of history
--
re : Smoot-H ...the straw law of econ college profs everywhere.
Well, I guess it's a good thing that Intel is spending $7 billion on a new chip fab plant for their next generation CPUs... in the USA.
Zoom Zoom | 02.11.09 - 9:57 am | #
How else to ensure you can embed whatever they may have signed on to with the DHS/CIA/NSA without any undue difficulty?
blackhat writes:
...The innovative design piece (small) is still here, mostly, but the more mundane architecture has been outsourced in architecture design centers where verification takes place...
blackhat, having myselfs been involved in chip design, I agree with you that the "high value" part (i.e. innovation, complex designs, architectural stuff, and the control/management of the whole process) is still the domain of americans (although a good deal of them were not born in america!) and the more mundane parts of design and most of the verification is outsourced. Both, for the product and the infrastructure/tools.
And it is the same in software.
When I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Dear XXXXX,
This is XXXX from Ningbo Beilun Metal stamping factory. We have known your professional experiences and sales skills, we are wondering whether you are interested in our business. We will appreciate it if you could act as our sales rep to help us to promote our current products categories. For details of terms and conditions, it is negotiable and we could discuss afterwards. Moreover, if you have Other RFQ you or your customers would like to develop with our factory, please let us know and we would like to provide you high quality products and outstanding service. Hopefully, we could develop cooperation relationship soon.
Yours sincerely,
XXXXX
www.nbstamping.com
2009-02-11
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Eh, NOVA, you seem to slacken off. No name-calling today ?
Who says a multi-trillion dollar economy can't turn on a dime? Obviously it can!
When I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Sheet metal squirrel traps
dryfly(Excellent) writes:
\tWhen I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Dear XXXXX,
This is XXXX from Ningbo Beilun Metal stamping factory. We have known your professional experiences and sales skills,
dryfly | 02.11.09 - 10:24 am | #
Huh?
Damn chart is too hard to read this way. Petroleum needs to be volume not $ based to get a real sense between the two (ex-pet vs pet).
???
At one point, you're going to somehow need to cut your non-oil imports in dollars or grow your exports in dollars to keep on getting your oil!
Huh?
xxxxx | 02.11.09 - 10:37 am | #
Not you man - the generic xxxx...
@ CR:
Is that first graph is constant dollars? if so, what year? If it's not, it really is not very meaningful because of inflation.
Not you man - the generic xxxx...
dryfly | 02.11.09 - 10:55 am | #
You had me going there.....
When I see these in my email in box I know the exporters are hungry:
Dear XXXXX,
This is XXXX from Ningbo Beilun Metal stamping factory. We have known your professional experiences and sales skills, we are wondering whether you are interested in our business. We will appreciate it if you could act as our sales rep to help us to promote our current products categories. For details of terms and conditions, it is negotiable and we could discuss afterwards. Moreover, if you have Other RFQ you or your customers would like to develop with our factory, please let us know and we would like to provide you high quality products and outstanding service. Hopefully, we could develop cooperation relationship soon.
Yours sincerely,
XXXXX
www.nbstamping.com
dryfly | 02.11.09 - 10:24 am | #
Dryfly, they hired someone who took your advice of the other day and promised to "bring them new business!"
Many observors, prognosticators, etc., talked about this moment for years back - at least to 2003 pretty non-stop. The current account could not be sustained, a great rebalance must occur, etc., etc. So is what's really happening just a huge "correction" in global trade?
The China-USA west coast convergence definitely looks threatened. By 2014 after all this plays out, there will be new wider canals at Panama capable of handling the new "panamax" container vessels just in time for delivery of over 100 new mega-containerships owned by European and Chinese companies to ply the China - Suez - Europe - US East Coast route. Houston and Charleston, SC, look set to boom. California (LA-Long Beach, Bay Area) set to decline.