Retail Sales Increase Slightly in January
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 02/12/2009 - 5:30am (31 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 22 members and 131 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
o way!
Thanks god. It's finally over.
People redeeeming gift cards b4 retailers go TU?
and they spiked these sales with huge net-profit losing discounts, how horrendous
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!
Actually, all those who have stopped paying the mortgage now have much more free cash. Why not go to the mall?
Was at Target past weekend. Very busy. Asked the cashier why it was so, she replied that alot of people are using their H&R Block Debit Cards. Nice, a tax refund shopping rally. Feb numbers will be up also I'm sure...
dead bodies move when they are being eaten by wolves. it doesn't mean they are going to recover and walk agai
Oops, that must have been me. I bought a digital TV on Jan 2.
Must say that the retial sales numbers do not seem to correspond to the chain store sales that were reported last week.
The Latest from Denninger:
To The Republicans
CR = Home of real economic analysis...not that crap on bubblevision.
Thanks!
dead bodies move when they are being eaten by wolves. it doesn't mean they are going to recover and walk again
joe shmoe | 02.12.09 - 9:00 am |
And dead cats bounce.
Considering that there's way more discretionary spending in a typical December, the 'seasonally adjusted' increase isn't really all that reassuring.
What if they're werewolves? Or zombie-dogs perhaps. We could have a dawn of the dead style pick up in retail.
That was me. I replaced a torn pair of jeans. Sorry for the false positive.
New Thread: Unemployment Claims: 4 Week Average above 600 Thousand ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.":
Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot.
Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing."
query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. "
double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe."
ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
nades writes: CRBot: Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff... ("But with much less dopey residue, nades.")
I call BS on this govt data, again! Doesn't jive with closer to source retailer and vendor sales data.
BOTTOM!
let's wait to see the profit margin on the sales. i'd much rather sell $100 worth of stuff at 10% margin than $300 of stuff at a 2% margin.
the man from nantucket writes:
let's wait to see the profit margin on the sales. i'd much rather sell $100 worth of stuff at 10% margin than $300 of stuff at a 2% margin.
What? You don't want to try and make it up in volume?
The retail sales numbers WILL be "revised" downward next time...THEY ALWAYS are....
Briefing.com: Retail Sales
The figures are released, then revised downward the next reporting perios...note the -2.7 revised to -3.0 for December...same for November, October, etc...
Before you think the one time blip up is ok...let's just see what they are revised to...
I am presuming gasoline sales are included in "Retail Sales." If so, the price of gasoline increased in the last month by more than enough to be statistically significant in their world of 1%.
Denninger?? He runs his blog like a bloody fascist. A real Mussolini type that if you disagree with him, it means you're wrong or are promoting some personal agenda, which is what he is doing all along. Real Jim Jones and a cult he's got over there. He recently stated there is no purpose to debate and that trying to sway another one's opinion serves no purpose. Too bad he's such a D**k. Much of what he states is pretty close to the mark.
Nominal and inflation-adjusted sales down over 10% yoy only occurs in a Depression.
CR - doesn't seasonal adjustment have a huge effect mtm between January & December? That after the holidaze sales drop off a ton anyway so they 'correct' for this? If the drop off wasn't quite as severe it is chalked up to a 'sales gain'... where if you look at the two months together it makes more sense?
I believe the same thing happens wrt empoloyment before & after christmas - if job loss isn't as severe in Jamuary as is usually the case then we say it was a job gain?
Just asking.
Accentuate the negative, eliminate the positive and don't mess with Mr. Inbetween.
This doesn't look like a rise to me. It looks like a change in the rate of contraction.
In other words, sales didn't rise, but the rate of decline isn't as bad.
yahoo news is really trying to pump the story that the sales are up +1.0%...whoo hoo!!
but, errr, that's on a month-to-month basis...they're still down -10% from last year!! jeez.
thanks, cr, for being a voice of reason.
And like the Bureau said, their advance "estimate" doesnt adjust for price changes.
I know here, gas is up from $1.69 to $1.99; still cheap but wow, that about a 15% jump!
Will be interested to see how the actual data, and not "estimates" shakes out once adjusted for price changes.
but cnbc said the results were better than expected with good results. You mean they lied? i just don't believe it.