NAR: Distressed Sales Accounted for 45% of Q4 Activity
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 02/12/2009 - 7:44am (92 comments)
in
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 37 members and 252 guests online.
Currently online
- Former Idealist
- Comrade Elmer Fudd
- GrandOldTurkey
- JP
- Eric
- black dog
- MaryAnn
- JBR
- CalculatedRisk
- Rob Dawg
- aleister perdurabo
- ResistanceIsFeudal
- gabyjan
- Hackman
- Spatch
- some investor guy
- curious
- Tom Stone
- RainyDay
- glimmerman
- Substace Over Form
- eek
- energyecon
- Whiskey
- pythia
- splat
- wafdof
- Lobbyist Ben Dover
- snick
- Comrade Janošik
- mhdoc
- Mert717
- gingeroni
- JimPortlandOR
- Strom
- Haralambos
- km4
Recent Recommendations
At this point I suspect all sales involve some level of distress.
3 percent of one, 3 percent of another.
Now is a great time to be distressed.
I'm not an expert here, but that's distressing.
when the package will be auctioned ?
Stimulus plans like those followed by the United States will not solve the global recession and risk sowing the seeds for future crises, Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said.
Tremonti, president of the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in Rome this weekend, said in a newspaper article "the American way" followed by rich countries for the last two years to solve the financial and economic crisis had done no good.
"Economic growth hasn't risen, but on the other hand public debts have risen,"
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Winner, Winner chicken dinner.
Some day, this market's gonna clear.
Duhhhhh
How big is the market for those that...
1) Can qualify for ( or do not need ) a mortgage and
2) Wants to buy in this market with prices still falling
And a big chunk in parts of Ca are to investors (15-25%)...another leg down is coming when these "investors" get taken out...btw this is the same percentage as during the boom
And the shadow inventory continues to grow...
I would be distressed that I might miss the bottom.
Securitized lending is Ponzi
More fraud victims popping up all over the world and what of the CEO insider trades?
http://information-security-reso...breach-victims/
Basically, in August of 2008 a lot of things happened with the breach and with the sudden launch of an aggressive stock selling program by the CEO Robert Carr - all in one month.
The breach was not "discovered" until the end of November, and was not announced until January 20, 2009 - just a week and a half after Carr stopped the massive stock sales - 9 sales of 80k shares for ~ $1.5M each in five months between the end of the breach and it's announcement to the public.
Where SEC is the investigation?
from wikipedia, i gather that the depression of 1873-1895 was marked by lots of usa homeowners walking away from homes, in size - which in some sense gave rise to the cultural idea of old haunted/abandoned victorian houses.....in the zeitgeist
so this has happened before
Where SEC is the investigation?
Paisano1 | Homepage | 02.12.09 - 11:04 am | #
BAHAHAHAHHAHAAHA
Come on this is america, there will be no investigations...
"The largest sales gain in the fourth quarter from a year earlier was in Nevada, up 133.7 percent"
Enough said....I'm buying the ten acres next door!
OT--China's January trade numbers. Michael Pettis's blog "Chinese Financial Markets" has a post today about how China's January's trade numbers are only a further sign of continued over production by China in a world wide consumption decline (which he calls, the "Great Global Imbalance") which is only making things worse.
China Financial Markets
Help! Help! I'm being distressed! Come and see the violence inherit in the system...I'm being distressed.
Nostrovia,
Here is a local version of distressed activity for San Fernando Valley and Ventura County:
Effective Demand: Short Sale & Foreclosure for San Fernando Valley & Ventura County - January 2009
This includes short sales and foreclosures.
Franko,
That's 1893-1895. Bernanke is a student of the depression of the 1930s, and is applying his knowlege of a completely different economic crisis to further exacerbate the current one.
Can't some Ivy League university give him a job where the worst he can do is hand out F's to people like CR and Roubini?
Anyone catch the buffoon on CNBS / Fast Money last night saying RE Sales and prices in SoCal are turning up? LOL
Rosenberg said Monday that if housing pxs drop another 15%, ALL major banks are insolvent
Sell now, or be underwater forever!!!
It's a great time to foreclose or short-sell a house.
Nemo:At this point I suspect all sales involve some level of distress.
I was perusing the non Short Sale and non Foreclosure sales for last month for Ventura. Almost all were vacant, relocations, investors, probate/trust or mislabeled REO/Short sales that didnt have the flags set.
Somewhat due to seasonality, but it is clear the sellers haven't got the message yet.
90% of pendings were below 659k, yet 44% of inventory was above that point for Ventura when I last checked:
Effective Demand: More on Demand vs Inventory for Ventura County
The mid to high end has some falling to do.
CR, do we know how the price is reported in a "distressed sale"? If it's the lender's unmatched bid, that doesn't tell us the market price. But if lenders only report the price at which they resell the home after they take title, that is probably closer to market. Does anybody here know the answer?
just a thought, who is more efficient in distributing capital? private or public?
answer:
1. If done correctly, govt. does not have to show a profit to stockholders, US citizen.
2. At least in the insurance game, want at least 10% profit and 20% expenses.
3. You can vote out a congresscriter, can not vote out a chief executive or a board.
4. You can direct how investments are made in the public arena (even if wrong)while you can not direct or even know how a company invests in future projects.
5. The sole purpose of private companies is to produce a profit whereas the govt. thru the opinion of the electorate can take into consideration the overall long term concerns of the nation as a whole.
Which ever approach you take, business is fixed on one goal at the expense of all others, make a profit.
Govt at its worst is just as bad practically as business, at its best, is better able to protect and defend the nation as a whole...
just an opinion...
"Distressed sales are the market in many areas of California, Florida, Nevada and other bubble states."
Bankers don't want to sell their devalued paper and people don't want to sell their devalued homes in this market, unless they have to do so. The million dollar question is, will there be a better market any time soon ?
@losr&confused
I expect the govt to spend money on "the public good". When the govt spends money on a private corporation I want guarantees and proof that this is changing their behavior in the way intended. To just give away, without audits and repercussions, is lunacy plain and simple.
Personally I think we should be bailing out unemployment, welfare, and helathcare while letting Wall St fail like it should for the risks they took.
misean-
one of the first movies I ever bought....
Good one...
Ciao
MS
Sam.2,
Fast Money will rot your brain faster than MTV.
As far as the banks, I wouldn't be surprise if all except Chase have been insolvent for a year. A collegue wrote a white paper almost 3 years ago making the case that the derivatives market desperately needed to be regulated through a central marketplace. That would have provided a marketplace and therefore, market values for and CDOs and swaps. He was ignored of course and here we are.
losr&confused | \t \t \t \t02.12.09 - 11:14 am | #
Agreed.
Securitized lending is Ponzi
No amnesty for MTV!
YouTube - Böhse Onkelz - Keine Amnestie für MTV
Chase?
88 trillion ring a bell?
"HOG cuts dividend from .33 to .10"
Only 9 cents more to go.....
Ciao
MS
losr&confused,
There's some 100M people I'd like to discuss your "opinion" with...Unfortunately....
Amazon.com: The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror, Repression (9780674076082): Mark Kramer, Jonathan Murphy, Stephane Courtois, Jean-Louis Panne, Andrzej Paczkowski, Karel Bartosek, Jean-Louis Margolin: Books
Nostrovia,
MS,
Bloody peasant....
Nostrovia,
From previous thread:
NAPLES Naples-Marco Island ranks as the top spot in the U.S. for where home prices are expected to drop the most, a new report reveals.
According to a report by Moodys Economy.com titled Housing in Crisis, average home prices in the metro area are predicted to fall more than 70 percent from their peak in 2006 to their trough, or bottom, in 2010. That puts it first in the nation.
Large home price drops hit home to Naples, Marco» Naples Daily News
Re: The stimulas, I hope the House virgin stays - the bigger amounts going to State bailouts are going to be needed. Otherwise when things get tighter (and they will), the States will need to start withholding cash to the FedGov - THAT will be pretty ugly.
The problem with putting your head in the sand is that you cannot see or hear. No sense gets in. Maybe this is a bright idea given the sad things we see today? Yet you need to see and hear during a time of unrest and danger.
Groucho’s Investment Club: Membership Has Rewards « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
Yun is no fun, doomers have wun Yun, run Yun, get a gun Yun, homes have lost a tun Yun, you've had your time in the sun Yun. Yun is dun.
"how can you tell he's a king?"
"hasn't got shit all over 'em"
Fairly realistic going forward....
Ciao
MS
"Buy now before the prices go down another 25-30%!"
"There's some 100M people I'd like to discuss your "opinion" with...Unfortunately....
404 - Document Not Found 0674076087"
You are a great poster.. but your straw man just caught fire
In any case I think pure capitalism is just as bad if not worse than pure socialism...
We definitely have gone too far to the right.. but I'd agree we have to be careful not to over-correct
"foreclosures are heavily skewing the broader home price figures to be much lower"
Broader home prices? Foreclosures and short sales are half of the market.
Wall Street!
Wall Street!
Wall Street!
/"It's all run by a model"
'Tis a silly place...come Patsy!
Nostrovia,
"We definitely have gone too far to the right.."
You have NO IDEA what too far to the right really means....nor left for that matter.
Come on this is america, there will be no investigations...
crispy&cole
I agree! They would end up locking up politicians with wall street.
Misean - I always thought it was violins inherent in the system.
Anyhow, Krugie has been reading CR again - he's got a pirate joke up.
C
Of course, the datalinks inside the NAR's press release don't work. The spreadsheet is full of gibberish symbols.
How appropriate.
If all things are equal between how govt vs. business allocates resources, the govt. can be wasteful up to the point of the profits earned.
The worst possible situation is a business-govt. partnership, wherein we get the worst of both...
just my opinion...
SLV seems to be taking a little pause today.....after that run from 11 I'd say it needs it.
Ciao
MS
there's bugs in the woodwork
foundations cannot hold
the lure of easy money
has a very strong appeal...
Fugitive financier arrested at U.S. border - Associated Press
mortgages and cash in boots and gold certificates, oh my!
the low spark of high heeled boyz...
Confessions Of A Mortgage Fraudster - iTulip.com
I have an 810+ point credit score. No debt, Not married, No children. Can I auction off my credit score to the highest bidder on Ebay or do a reality show type deal for it. One catch, I go with the 810 credit score.
misean-
now you're going to make me dig out the VCR and try to find that movie....
Ciao
MS
Broker writes:
"Buy now before the prices go down another 25-30%!"
Ah, there's the dilemma. Price may drop, but what those mortgage rate sky! If prices drop that far, the banks will have to go level 4 to hide that crap or be preprivatized.
Lama -
I only watch fast money to reassure myself that my portfolio is diametrically opposed to those fools...it works...and is kind of fun to listen to for a laugh on the way home
Public and private have their own separate realms whereby the best and worst results have been previously noted...
Each serves a worthwhile purpose...and each has its place...
I get nervous when they decide to work together...we can possibly get the worst of both in combination...
Dump coming at 78 handle?
Bit ironic that the German bund issue failed but there's flight into UK gilts, and the 2-10 year spread is at record levels. I'm not really on board with the revealed preference here.
C
MS,
One word...iTunes.
losr...
Businesses, per se, cannot put guns to their customers heads when their inefficiency makes profits = 0.
Being gov't means never having to worry about it...well until it gets so big and centralized it kills the host. Hmmmmm
/looks out window--ducks
Nostrovia,
"You have NO IDEA what too far to the right really means....nor left for that matter."
Huh? Really when you go way far one way or the other you meet in the same place... is there really any difference between living under stalin or hitler?
C,
Violins...ALMOST posted that....
Nostrovia,
"Median home prices are a poor measure of house price changes"
OK, but its a good measure of market activity today and tells a story that few in gov't,banking want to hear. RE is significantly over valued and continues to decline. Look at REO activity over 500K, very little activity. Homeowners have been selling property on average ever 7 years and needed too given the refi activity and tax gains but without a pool of high income buyers available for the growing upper tier housing anywhere in the U.S. the ponzi ends.
....I want to know how you can stuff $70,000 in your shoes? I have a tough time putting my money-clip around $77.
Too many black helicopters circling over Misean's head
Hey all, my Feb Strategy report is about to be published, if you have requested a copy in the past, you should get it again (yahoo e-mail list). If you want to get a copy, my way of saying thanks to the CR commentariat, send me an e-mail at dhvd_2004@yahoo.com. If you do not want to be added to the ongoing list (which also gets the blogs I put up on Zacks, many of which find their way into Strategy Reports) let me know in the e-mail, otherwise I will add you to the list.
Oh, sorry...
This page is available to GlobePlus subscribers
The public sets the ground rules for the private...they also look out for the welfare of the entire community...
The private allocates resources for the remainder of society in a best case, the most efficient way based on profit...
If the private fails primarily due to the failure of the public to adequately supervise, they have the primary responsibility to restart/reset the entire system...through rewriting the ground rules and re establishing the financial well being of the system...
The problem, as I see it, is the movement of players between the two spheres...no Chinese firewall...
great story, BSR, a great story.
itunes.....nahh didn't join that world...wife did though.
Besides why pay for something twice or three times FTM....
I tried the Ipod thing but it crashed my computer more times then I can tell ya!...I bought my wife a laptop just so she could put the s/w on a different computer.
I use one (Ipod) but that s/w doesn't agree with my machine....Blue screen of death stuff..
Ciao
MS
..I want to know how you can stuff $70,000 in your shoes
that's 7-8 stacks of $100's , wrapped around the ankles and taped. don't get sucked into poor journalistic story telling.
@MS.. you have 64bit Vista, that's the problem right there.
Irish Consumer Prices fall by 0.1% in the year to January; First annual deflation since 1960
Source: Irish Consumer Prices fall by 0.1% in the year to January; First annual deflation since 1960
We roll back a decade a week it seems as far as records go. At this rate March will be the 1930s
Oh, I wrote another chapter, sort of, of our depressing future
Vista = SUCKS
I can't anti-recommend it enough
"I want to know how you can stuff $70,000 in your shoes? I have a tough time putting my money-clip around $77."
7 Salmon P. Chases ($10,000 bills)? (Those would probably be worth more than $70k as collectors items.)
Lorax,
Lorax,
I have Win7 beta 64...iTunes works great.
I rally like my iTouch for watching shite in airports/planes.
...and MS, as I've got it memorized, the money thing is like a guilty pleasure really.
Nostrovia,
Vista? No don't even have that....
Ever since I eliminated softy man updates and that (Ipod)..have had zero problems.
Wife has Vista....has had several problems with it alone. I won't go to Vista unless I am forced.
Ciao
MS
"guilty pleasure really"
We all have 'em....
Ciao
MS
OT: Does anyone have any updated information on the fate of the $15k tax credit for home purchases? Does that credit apply to all transactions made in 2009, or just to those that close after the bill is signed into law?
Thank you to anyone who can shed some light.
To The Republicans - The Market Ticker
He's stopped yelling for a few day's now.......
I'll add to his list: Eliminate Fed interest payments to said banks. You are effectively telling them (and providing them) the reason to not lend with this operation.
Ciao
MS
RockyR,
CR has a post on it, the 15k has been reverted back to a 7.5k for first time home buyers but they eliminated the repayment feature.
BSR - thanks for the links. The main outstanding question is why Warren tried to re-enter the US. Probably the same stupidity that led him down his original path. And confessed online.
Jeebus. Wonder what Jas would make of that...
C
Better Hollycrap material than old Bernie, but just another crook.
New Thread: Fed Paper: Effective Practices in Crisis Resolution ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.":
Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot.
Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing."
query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. "
double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe."
ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
nades writes: CRBot: Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff... ("But with much less dopey residue, nades.")
....I want to know how you can stuff $70,000 in your shoes? I have a tough time putting my money-clip around $77.
Black Star Ranch
.
Jewel-encrusted, especially on buckles. These were actually quite fashionable in the 18th c., and French haute couture still brings them out from time to time.
Although for this spring it's all about tough-girl gladiator platform sandals.
how's the 'oil is a screaming buy' turning out. Front month is 34.75.
Over the last few expiration cycles, the front gets crsuhed as specs head for the exit's, as there's no where to store. So goes the tanker arb strategy.
I want to know how you can stuff $70,000 in your shoes? I have a tough time putting my money-clip around $77.
Black Star Ranch
Swallow it, fiber up, buy latex gloves
Here's on topic report (but dead thread): When we bought our home in Orange County Dec'08, almost all the homes we looked at within our price range were REO (between Apr'08 to Nov'08). We even made an offer on REO which we cancelled after finding out how painful it would be to add a permitted bathroom.
3 non-REO exceptions were: estate sale, for sale by owner and normal sale by children who inherited the home (post-estate settlement).
We ended buying the inherited home and we got it because we had conventional 20% down, 30 year fixed loan (our competitor offered $50K more but had a VA loan so the sellers agent got the sellers to accept our bid).
I recently checked new Oakland, CA listings on Redfin and the ratio of REO/Short Sale to Total listings is still around 80%.
One noticeable change is that there are now a small number of listings from investors who bought REO's and have put them back onto the market; usually with at least cosmetic improvements. Haven't seen many re-sales consumated, but I just look at a sample and may have missed some.
We definitely have gone too far to the right.. but I'd agree we have to be careful not to over-correct
USA=CCCP | 02.12.09 - 11:29 am | #
You have NO IDEA what too far to the right really means....nor left for that matter.
Black Star Ranch | 02.12.09 - 11:33 am | #
two wrongs dont make a right
but three lefts do
What is being overlooked (hidden) by NAR is the fact that pending sales are not converting to closed status at the same rate. Before the housing boom the conversion rate from pending to sold was about 80-85%. During the boom it was close to 100%. After the boom it has been about 1/3, However, in the last few months that conversion rate has dropped to about 25%. So maybe pendings are not a sign of the future, but a signal that financing is still tight.
Tobby,
25% of pendings close?
The number for my local area is about 65%
Where do you get your numbers?
RockyR,
CR has a post on it, the 15k has been reverted back to a 7.5k for first time home buyers but they eliminated the repayment feature.
Effective Demand | Homepage | 02.12.09 - 12:00 pm | #
Thank you, ED. I've been very busy this last week and have gotten behind on some of this stuff. Thank you for sharing your legwork
example of how un-regulated free market capitalism turns out
the end to the game "monopoly"
example of how totalitarian socialism turns out
orwells 1984
Accentuate the negative, eliminate the positive and don't mess with Mr Inbetween.