Quarterly House Appreciation by State
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 12/01/2005 - 12:04pm (15 comments)
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ice chart. i'll be waiting for a similar chart on quarterly decreases. no way these prices stay afloat over the next 5 years. there are a myriad of factors keeping the party going, but eventually the fundamentals will force an adjustment, if an exogenous shock doesn't first.
Richard, I agree there is no way these rates can continue. The 4th quarter might even show some states with declining prices.
On a local level, OFHEO details 265 cities, and only 10 of them showed quarterly price declines in Q3. About half the cities had price increases between 1% and 3%.
I believe the housing story has changed (just look at the rise in inventories), but the housing market is still reasonably robust.
I'm going to write a summary on housing soon.
Best Wishes.
That seems pretty unambiguous: prices are appreciating.
But I can make it ambiguous with a little effort. These are the rosey results of marketing that even persuaded the Playboy centrefold to pursue real estate. (No, it wasn't the multiplier effect of her decision that excited the market.) Everybody read this the way they should: sell now while the market is peaking. (Ok a lousy pun.) This put a ton of houses on the market that had not been listed for years; better houses in fact [my case rests mostly here and not the centerfold as wished by some] that were snapped up at bargain prices although slightly higher than last month's inferior stock.
And now the ambiguity: So next month, those home resale numbers are going to look Godawful.
Maybe.
calmo, there is an old investment saying: "Sell when the story changes." IMHO the housing story has changed.
Best Regards.
This map overlayed the inventory increases over the same period would be very telling. I bet some of the hottest markets such as Phoenix have also seen some of the fastest inventory increases.
I've been watching the Manhattan market which I think could be considered hot. Inventory here has increased in October but has stabilized in November, and it looks like it is decreasing now. This market is ultra sensitive to rates and we've seen rates retreat a bit. Prices have delclined in Q3 but I doubt they will decline in Q4 given decreasing inventory levels. We may see real estate do well for he next few months. If the economy is to slow in sympathy with the real estae market then that should be happening towards the end of next year. (Judging by the eurodollar futures market.) The bubble has air to spare at the moment I think.
Paul, interesting idea. Unfortunately, for existing homes, inventory is just presented Nationally. We get bits and pieces from local areas, but it would be difficult to construct a map.
Inventory for New Homes Sales is broken down by four regions. Interestingly inventories have risen sharply in the Northeast and have increased only a little elsewhere. That is probably why the prices in the Northeast are cooling.
Best Regards.
What's wrong with Kansas?
I couldn't resist that one... considering the book by the same name.
But then Michigan isn't doing so well either... and it doesn't have the same political disposition as Kansas. I'm in western Michigan tonight, right along Lake Michigan and one of the few regions in this state where the economy is fairly sound & the housing market is pretty good... according to locals here anyway. A lot of this is due to 'second homes'... Chicago money. Locals call them FIBs... the 'I' stands for Illinois, I'll let you guess the rest.
But it snows to beat hell here... lake effects tonight... probably six inches or more. My appointments aren't until late in the day so we should be able to dig out & make it. A guy in the bar I talked to was from Mexico - both of us seeing automotive accounts... he was freaking looking out the window.
He won't be buying anything up here... snow... maybe San Diago instead.
Dryfly-- Hi neighbor-Illinois here. I come for the Michigan beaches and leave only footprints and perhaps some dollars. I've also found the building disturbing. Thanks for all your insight into the economy- I just wanted you to know it's appreciated but just like this site it makes my head spin. Thanks CR for my newest education in life.
It strikes me as though this map is perhaps a better view of underlying economic strength than of home prices. Want to see where people are confident in their jobs? look at this map. Want to see positive immigration impact? look at this map.
Of course the major flaw in the whole report is that it is based on 2-8 month old data. You really need to look at this stuff in real-time in order to get any actionable information. full disclosure: my company is in the business of real-time info and we blog about it, so we're a bit biased.
CR: Do you have a handy link to the previous quartlery data? I'd like to see, for example, how much MA has "cooled" over the last 3 quarters. What's the trend, by state?
Mike:
Only if you ignore Oregon and Idaho! IIRC Oregon has (had?) one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.
You never know:
404 Page Not Found | Idaho Statesman
EPRobert: Maybe - and likely Mass. on the other end. But Michigan is pretty clear!
The trick in this market is that even relative high unemployment rates are historically low. Just as rising current interest rates are still really cheap money, historically.
That's why we see recent cooling as a return to sanity rather than a POP of the bubble.
We see a bubble pop requiring a sudden, significant underlying economic tumble as a catalyst. Like defense spending cuts of the early 90s or the oil bust of the early 80s or the NASDAQ bust of the early 00s.
Maybe it's the tax-increase bust of '08 that'll get us.
Mike,
I like the presentation. I have a small website that publishes the 379 Metro Areas for the OFHEO HPI in Sortable tables, showing % changes.
I would like to add other stats to this site if anyone has any ideas.
http://www.existinghomesales.info/hpi.html
Ia