Hoocoodanode will be going offline for security related maintenance at 11 PM PST tonight, and may be down for several hours. Sorry for the inconvenience.
JPMorgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley Temporarily Halt Foreclosures
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 02/13/2009 - 11:14am (484 comments)
in
Yipee.. free mortgage, free rent for everyone.
Let's just transfer all of the wealth from non-deadbeats to deadbeats.
Frazier looks a bit groggy but stumbling back to his feet.
how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?
By the lack of public outcry when you transfer $50 billion to the banks via the back door.
It's Scatman Cruthers to the rescue....you wanna play a game?
Repost.
Everyone is equal..
NEW DRIVERS LICENSE(.YOUR FIRST TRACKING DEVICE)
YouTube - NEW DRIVERS LICENSE(.YOUR FIRST TRACKING DEVICE)
Three weeks. That's March Madness!
Quick, better get overextended NOW if you want any of this government assistance!
I have a relative who just had their loan redone. The lender added the arrears to the end and added a lot of extra fees. The relative had an adjustable which hurt them badly. Did I mention that the new rate is 8.5%. That sure didn't help them much.
At 5 or 6% they would be alright.
NOW if you want any of this government assistance!
Nemo | Homepage | 02.13.09 - 1:38 pm | #
I'm thinking, sell my house and rent for three years, by that time, the "first time" tax break should be up to about $50,000.
Of course, bread will be $10/loaf.
This is like when Wile E. is standing in mid air, chuckling to himself as the smoke begins to clear, and he sees the Road Runner pointing down, right?
Nostrovia,
This is a back door deal to give the bailout of the banks a happy face. Something akin to putting lipstick on a pig.
I wonder how many foreclosures will be "saved or created" by these actions. Gotta be in the millions. What say ye, Obama?
In case anyone missed this :
Fraud probe into UK firm's role in collapse of world's largest insurer AIG
Fraud probe into UK firm's role in collapse of world's largest insurer AIG
| Mail Online
Since starting AIG Financial Products in 1987, Mr Cassano, 53, is thought to have earned almost £200million.
The company made huge profits selling credit default swaps – insurance contracts which protected investors against the risk of companies being unable to pay their bills.
But at the end of 2007 it began to report drastic quarterly losses. In April last year Mr Cassano was nudged into retirement but kept on in a consultancy role for £700,000 a month for nine months.
"I have a relative who just had their loan redone."
Shoulda done the hair. Next time try that.
Nostrovia,
These clowns will do any and everything to keep people making payments.
Just walk.
If the house you bought within the last 5-6 years is now worth 25K or more less than the note, I'd say walk! You will never get that money back.
Now, if you have a paid off home and have lived there for decades, you should be fine.
But trying to pay 350K on a home now worth 200K is stupid.
Of course, bread will be $10/loaf.
Already is at Panera.
Damn. Reading the news these days makes me want to take a baseball bat and start breaking things. Any things.
Does that make me a bad person?
I hope they know what they're doing.
An economy can only handle so much adverse selection before it collapses.
Great CRE cartoon.
Nemo,
"Does that make me a bad person?"
Only if you put someone's eye out.
;P
Nostrovia,
Yes. Take my money. Please. Of course I would like to help morons who bought overpriced houses. Sure... I like helping banks that made retarded loans to said morons. Certainly... Try to stop/delay foreclosures to prevent housing prices from dropping. Not like I am interested in buying property at a decent price or anything. I got absolutely nothing better to do with my money.
I'm curious - how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?
How do you evaluate a program aimed at propaganda ends and initiated by the same people who caused the problem?
I would imagine by using metrics that show the results in a favorable light?
[Frazier looks a bit groggy but stumbling back to his feet.
Pissed Off In California ]
Fear of a PPT 3-day-weekend PPT jam-job ?
Unintended Consequences??
So I'm assuming these banks aren't doing this for altruistic reasons, but rather in an effort to prop up home prices so they don't have to keep writing down their mortgage-derived garbage assets.
But, as CR keeps pointing out, a large percent of home sales now are REO and short sales. They may end up driving the sales volume down significantly if they don't bring more REO inventory to the market.
And what will a sharp fall in sales volume do for prices?
Does anyone not facing foreclosure think this is a good idea? Does anyone think the banks will forego late fees and interest during the next few weeks?
And, this strikes me as a very clear signal that the banks are begging for gov't intervention. They want the gov't to save them from themselves.
We don't need housing prices propped up!
It's first realization of the Lenders that foreclosure will lose you more money in this market than cram-downs. You can cut your losses 30% now via cram-down of the principle, or you can keep stating your losses 10% every quarter until they hit zero with a complete write-off. And you have to maintain the property on your books, liability and all.
But the labor market won't recover on this news. The other consumer-oriented services-sector only economy has been weighed, measured, and found lacking--so we'll have to reorganize that as well...
The real question is how do you modify a loan for someone with no job?
Now you're looking option 1 and option 2 ending in zero-sum.
--bh
CR: The details will be interesting. I'm curious - how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?
You're being too gentle here.
Shelia Bair and the FDIC had far more time and experience in their attempt to do a broad mortgage modification program.
And as they learned, the reality is a lot messier than they anticipated.
There are many, many extenuating circumstances that must be dealt with.
It is as if someone were to suggest they could come with a diagram to replace all the telephone wiring in NYC with a different system in 3 weeks.
Yeah, right.
From the latest chapter in my CR inspired opus. This summarizes what I think we are headed towards with the economy.
Three months had gone by and the Gardener killing was old news. The level of violence was increasing exponentially. It was like one day a switch had flipped and people began not give a damn. People were angry. Angry at what they had lost. Angry that no one was coming to help them. Angry that it had not gone away. That every morning they got up nothing had changed. If it had, it was usually for the worse. What really bothered them was it was unequal. Like a bomb had dropped but it had only blown up some of the people. It made some of them crazy that their friends and neighbors could still go to the mall, eat at restaurants , and watch the game on their digital HD TVs. It just wasnt fair goddamn it! If they had to suffer, well then other people should also. So they began making people suffer. Sometimes by stealing something they had that they wanted. Sometimes by using sharp objects. Sometimes through the most bizarre forms of torture. Most of the time, they just sat around, and hated, an envied.
if interested - follow the url
What did I miss?
If things are so bad that SS, Med.Care will be raided along with private pensions, then I see a class warfare occurring that has not been seen in this country since the late 19th-early 20th century between the uber rich and the poor...
One by land, two by sea...
I recall getting an "invitation" from IMBFB to pay off my HELOC balance and they would send me $1.5k....
I'm not in the loan mod. boat however it's becoming increasingly obvious that I could create that fairly easy.
The pet sitter I use was telling about how the terms of her Chase card were changed from month-to-month. In her case what was a $250 payment became a $750 payment (based on some new requirement of 5% being the total minimum payment). The best part was they included more "checks" to get in deeper. I told her to pay it off in full (if possible) and cut it up.
Any other anecdotal info. you can share? Prescient to the thread because I've also seen C try to do this to me. It doesn't work when you pay it off in full each month however the terms were changed though.
Talk about cutting off people at the knee's. Makes me feel all warm inside that I drained a former C card of it's cash advance and then flipped it into the HELOC. Sure I'll pay that off in full so you can send me $1.5k...
Ciao
MS
3 more weeks of free rent! (but not for me, I rent)
Financial entities have had foreclosure moratoria in place since November 26. These latest moratoria make 15 weeks of free rent. Add that to the weeks/months/years of free rent these people got before they were put into foreclosure. The foreclosures that will eventually hit the system will be enormous. And Vikram Pandit, for example, at the latest Congressional hearings said he could not sell assets at today's prices because it wouldn't be in the best interest of shareholders. What is the cash flow of a mortgage in foreclosure???
Success = Perception = Spi
BTW, I meant to add:
Thinking with your heart is a luxury that comes from first thinking with your brain.
Once we forget that it is inevitable that we will fall victim to the tyranny of reality - our brains are the only weapon we have in that war. Our emotions are there to get us to use it, not to replace it.
The real question is how do you modify a loan for someone with no job?
Or for someone who lied on their original application?
What happens if someone claimed to earn $150K/year in 2005. But actually only earned $90K and now wants a loan mod?
Instead of a loan mod, perhaps this person should get a subpoena?
What is the cash flow of a mortgage in foreclosure???
If the US Treasury is guaranteeing it, then of course, it's AAA asset!
losr&,
You did miss something. You missed the classwarfare. The other class won.
Mission Accomplished.
--bh
This has all simply gotten loopy.
The Loss Velocity:
Lloyds fell 32 percent in London trading today after announcing that HBOS expects to report a 10 billion-pound pretax loss. The 7 billion-pound loss at HBOSs corporate unit is twice the forecast made in December, three months after Lloyds agreed to a government-brokered takeover to save HBOS from collapse.
Mr. Beach-
Thus the fallacy of propping up debt purchases obtained under obviously false pretenses. Just think if the banking system didn't do it either...
Ciao
MS
I have put together a pretty strong links group for today. a few pieces discussing US government default. our CDS price has risen to 82. i remember at the beginning of 2008 it was 4. that would have been the trade. also chris whalen says CITI will need $200 billion more just this year.
even if you've seen today's already i have added 12 more stories. there are 42 now.
enjoy the fruits of my labor.
sqworl | The Daily Bail Friday Feb.13th
happy friday.
steve
Enough of the USG plans intent circling around the drain. Either let the god damn cascade begin or formally take the hit for all the bad debt out there.
As far as I can tell, loan mods are yet another attempt to cushion the blow to the broader economy.
Perhaps we should be feel lucky that loan mods are being proposed.
I don't know about you guys, but during the darker days of last fall, I was concerned about a full systemic collapse leading to food shortages and people in the streets.
If loan mods keep that future at bay, then perhaps they are a good thing?
CR: how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?
You all know the answer, but for the record: If there is a drop in overall foreclosures, victory will be declared.
"Grunch writes:
Everyone is equal..
NEW DRIVERS LICENSE(.YOUR FIRST TRACKING DEVICE)
YouTube - ? v=dw4GBzB5Y3w
Grunch | 02.13.09 - 1:35 pm |"
Thanks for the heads up. Everyone should read the comments under that video.
I'm so F'ing mad, I can't see straight. Sure, lets reward stupidity and fraud.
Given the number of people that are already living in homes rent/mortgage free, it is amazing how terrible the consumer spending numbers are. There are so many stories of people that have gone 15 weeks, or even a year without paying a dime for their housing. Shouldn't those savings be spilling into the economy somehow? Or are these funds showing up as "deposits" in our under capitalized banks, in essence padding the capital ratios?
What will be the effect of additional freezes on foreclosures? More illusory improvement?
Mr. Beach,
This is a great point. In a functioning system, whoever cut the loan is responsible, and can go after the liar they loaned to. We probably need to build new courts and hire new judges from the ranks of newly unemployed lawyers just to clear the back-log in state courts...
--bh
I think you measure success in this one by a tiny ruler.
blackhat writes:
losr&,
You did miss something. You missed the classwarfare. The other class won.
Mission Accomplished.
--bh
They won the equivalent of WWI. Like the Allies of that war, they're finding out what happens when you treat the losers like dirt. A "new" war, which is just the old war continuing.
If loan mods keep that future at bay, then perhaps they are a good thing?
Somebody's got to realize the losses, whether it be the lenders directly (default) or everyone else (devaluation)
comrade stalin approves
My neighbor, a car salesman, bought his house a couple of years back. He came around late last year asking for a $15,000 loan to prevent foreclosure and I briefly considered his plea. In doing my due diligence I found that he'd gotten into a house worth (at the time) about 6 times his annual salary and he'd done it with a 5% downpayment. His plan had been to take out home equity loans yearly as his home appreciated in value and use the money to make payments he otherwise couldn't afford.
I decided not to loan him the money considering it unlikely that I'd ever see it again. No one else loaned him the money and the foreclosure process began.
Then it halted. He's happy now and says he's making affordable payments for the time being - which is good since his commissions have dropped by more than half (he says).
All of the above means that he has a loan equal to about 12 times his income. What possible "plan" other than "Uncle Sam will pay off 75% of your principal and get you a prime rate loan for 30 years on what's left" could possibly work?
And if Uncle Sam starts paying off the mortgages of people like my neighbor and taxing me (or eroding my savings through inflation) to pay for it I'm going to be really really really mad.
Can all of you childish conspiracists please stop referencing the mythical PPT - oh, wait, I'm one of you - carry on.
I am looking at Bloomberg News and every listed under "Breaking News" is probably worth a topic here. CA looks determined to die, the rich are getting richer, and Europe is going broke.
Nova,
Does 'American Apocalypse' have a happy ending?
The Latest from Mish:
Have Your Cake And Lend It Too
Time to change my rating there, ac.
Mr. Beach writes:
As far as I can tell, loan mods are yet another attempt to cushion the blow to the broader economy.
"Perhaps we should be feel lucky that loan mods are being proposed.
I don't know about you guys, but during the darker days of last fall, I was concerned about a full systemic collapse leading to food shortages and people in the streets.
If loan mods keep that future at bay, then perhaps they are a good thing?
Mr. Beach | 02.13.09 - 1:51 pm |"
If you sacrifice some liberty for temporary security you get neither.
Benjamin Frankli
rent
Asun | 02.13.09 - 1:34 pm | #
And nothing for the real renters of the world. This is sickening.
"Can all of you childish conspiracists please stop referencing the mythical PPT - oh, wait, I'm one of you - carry on."
What do you call it when the market finishes 200 points down? The reverse PPT?
IndyMac modified my loan to 2.375% for 5 years and then goes to 4.375 for remainder of the loan, 40 year mortgage now.
I am looking at Bloomberg News and every listed under "Breaking News" is probably worth a topic here.
nova | Homepage | 02.13.09 - 1:55 pm | #
It's all a bad-news blur today. Being pecked to death by falling anvils.
What do you call it when the market finishes 200 points down?
Pissed Off In California | 02.13.09 - 1:56 pm | #
A good day?
What do you call it when the market finishes 200 points down? The reverse PPT?
Reality?
Does 'American Apocalypse' have a happy ending?
Ponyless in NJ | 02.13.09 - 1:55 pm
I don't know Ponyless. I am making it up day be day. Some people will, Others? Probably they will just get ground up by events like usual.
1071 page Simulus Bill!
What do you call it when the market finishes 200 points down? The reverse PPT?
I call it common sense.
1071 page Simulus Bill!
picosec | 02.13.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Are they passing something today?
Hey another CNN "Quick Poll" - Who is most to blame for the nation's economic condition?
About half way down on the right side - pick the responsible party/scapegoat of your choice!
CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
IndyMac modified my loan to 2.375% for 5 years and then goes to 4.375 for remainder of the loan, 40 year mortgage now.
2.375% for 5years? I suppose you are almost as good a credit risk as the US treasury.
Are they passing something today?
Eric | 02.13.09 - 1:59 pm
Probably just gas.
So they added almost 100 pages since midnight.
I wonder how much pork has been added back in. All those things the senators were holding out against?
It's not easy.... being green!
maggs writes:
IndyMac modified my loan to 2.375% for 5 years and then goes to 4.375 for remainder of the loan, 40 year mortgage now.
how much in additional fee's added to the balance? any other conditions to the MOD?
ova, It is kind of depressing, but well written. Do you write for a living?
@ nova
Good writing....that is just my kind of fiction. Can't get enough of the sci-fi / apocolyptic genre.
It is getting closer to reality every day it seems.
Ideally, and this is real, they could qualify almost every last one of the victims put in tricky loans that could have qualified for conventional mortgages.
Rescue the otherwise able victims of mortgage fraud.
So it's only what the parameters are set to be.
One parameter will be how much the new loan will be as a % of the new appraisal.
While 80% is the old conservative standard, in these cases I think LTV of 90% is reasonable.
Ponyless in NJ | 02.13.09 - 2:00 pm
No, I do IT. Thanks, tho. I appreciate it.
I wonder if Jamie Dimon wore a long wig when he took that slimeball orange county mortgage broker (shown on CNBC's House of Cards) out to dinner.
i was surprised too with that rate, i am filing for BK and just applied for the modification to get me more time in my house before foreclosure so i could finish paying my attorney to file the BK. I work as a mortgage loan processor, put 15% down on my house when i bought it in 2003 but then lost my job and income has gone into the toliet. I don't see how they qualified me with the income i make now, i think IndyMac is just trying to stop foreclosures at this point, my mod was the most agressive all of us here at my work have seen so far.
"citizen energyecon writes:
Hey another CNN "Quick Poll" - Who is most to blame for the nation's economic condition?
About half way down on the right side - pick the responsible party/scapegoat of your choice!
CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.13.09 - 1:59 pm |"
They never include the Federal reserve in any of those polls, I wonder why.
I don't think so...Things can change, whether we are on the winning or losing side...
If you and others are correct in your opinion that we are dependent and demanding public, then this will break against the elites faster than 1776, because expectations are higher...Our ancestors had no expectation of help, just their bible and their church...not so today!!!
one by land and two by sea...
blackhat writes:
losr&,
You did miss something. You missed the classwarfare. The other class won.
Mission Accomplished.
--bh
blackhat | 02.13.09 - 1:48 pm | #
Do you write for a living?
Another one of those phrases that will seem quaint in Nova's future. To be replaced by "Do you garden or hunt?"
And for people who like quotations from our most Rebellious President ever, Thomas Jefferson.
"Can We Party like it's 1776 and Start Over? Thomas Jefferson's Top 10 Quotes on Money and Banking"
Page Not Found - The Daily Bail
These quotes demonstrate that nothing ever changes in banking. It astounded me.
Steve
How does this influence future value if there are no differences between success and failure, i.e, growth and decay? If the ability to pay on a loan, is based on bailouts versus the threat of failure, how will we value future value.
I'm a bit fuzzy on this??
they wanted no upfront money, they paid my property taxes and I hadn't made a payment since 7/08, I start making the new payments 3/1/09 and the past due pmts get put on the back of the loan.
If you sacrifice some liberty for temporary security you get neither.
Benjamin Franklin
Michael | 02.13.09 - 1:56 pm
As much as I do and support the right thing, I have a very strong personal incentive not to become collateral damage.
Heroes get statues and poems. Survivors get to breed.
As an aside, anyone here seen the fabulous film 'Idiocracy'?
The general idea is that in the future, the world is populated by stupider and stupider people because they are the ones procreating. In the opening future scene, we see one of our main characters sitting on a combination toilet and chair watching a large TV alternating between the violence channel and "bating" all while eating what looks like crisco out of a tub.
Maybe we're living in an 'Idiocracy' world and just don't know it.
Mish has it:
And the final piece of the puzzle is credit worthy borrowers for the most part, simply do not want to borrow.
I have a FICO of 780 (if not higher now)... There is no way in hell I am borrowing in a deflationary environment. Prices won't rebound for years. I have a very comfortable living as a renter where my rent is less than half what PITI + HOA would be.
Good writing....that is just my kind of fiction. Can't get enough of the sci-fi / apocolyptic genre.
if you haven't read "The Road", get it. Read that in one straight through, which is possibly the only book I can say that about.
You know the article CR referenced says "some home loans"...oh Tanta, I miss you.
You would ask 'how much is some?'
Some as in many, most, almost all, or some as in the ones that are all but written off but which we don't have capital or people to take ownership over the property we're foreclosing on...
--bh
looks like the famous lochness monster formation today.
ova - +1!
OCDan writes:
If the house you bought within the last 5-6 years is now worth 25K or more less than the note, I'd say walk! You will never get that money back.
I don't know, Dan. I estimate that the house I bought in 2007 is about 60k underwater. However, the one house for rent in my neighborhood is about equal to my mortgage payment after factoring in the tax deductions.
I like the house, so I am trying to pay it down faster. I know I've lost a lot but I don't like what happens when you walk.
@ Mr. Beach,
I am of the opinion that if you take the current trendline of the past 40 years as far as the general dumbing down of our population and run it a few hundred years into our future then "Idiocracy" is dead on.
I had a 810 Fico score...May be lower, since I requested all my credit cards be canceled after they were paid off on a monthly basis to zero...
I guess my score dropped to, what 600?
"There is no way in hell I am borrowing in a deflationary environment."
That's what you think... but you are wrong! By passing a large stimulus bill that rings up a big deficit, the government effectively confiscates some of your future earnings and brings them forward.
That is called 'borrowing' and it is being done for you whether you like it or not.
12th Percentile | 02.13.09 - 2:04 pm
The Road was disapointing for me. I would suggest Snow Crash.
I can see how people would get angry if their neighbors get left off the hook that have to wiggle and bleed on.
I pay an embarassing high interest rate. Because it was what we got when we bought 20 years ago. We never trusted re-fi after getting burned once.
As someone who has been watching SRS daily and invested in it for most of the last 15 months or so, it is really starting to diverge from the market.
Markets green and SRS up 5%. Not sure that has ever happened.
Just a matter of time before the next panic.
And then we should have one more cycle before complete capitulation.
["Market turmoil has created lingering industrywide concerns that magnify the importance of maintaining an extra level of capital to support business activities," Price said in a question and answer dialogue posted on the company's internal Web site.
He added, "We currently have enough cash on hand to fund our parent company operations for more than two years without having to issue additional debt during that time."]
Someone have a link to Kenny-Boy Lay's appeal to employees, reassuring them that Enron was a strong vibrant enterprise, shortly before collapse.
Michael - I voted. Here are the current results
Most to blame are:
Politicians 28% 20720
Lending institutions 33% 24171
Shopaholic consumers 9% 6482
Federal agencies (SEC, Fannie Mae, etc.) 14% 10631
Investment firms 11% 7827
Housing industry 5% 3672
And then we should have one more cycle before complete capitulation.
12th Percentile | 02.13.09 - 2:08 pm | #
There's always "one more cycle".
BTW, I meant to add:
Thinking with your heart is a luxury that comes from first thinking with your brain.
Once we forget that it is inevitable that we will fall victim to the tyranny of reality - our brains are the only weapon we have in that war. Our emotions are there to get us to use it, not to replace it.
ac | 02.13.09 - 1:47 pm | #
Where does thinking with your penis fit into this scenario?
Michael writes:
Thanks for the heads up. Everyone should read the comments under that video.
Dont' worry, there'll be a Republican lickspittle by in a second to explain how it's for your protection and to stop illegals and beaners.
Re: NAR stands ready to work with the administration to reduce foreclosures and make homeownership more attainable for thousands of Americans," said Charles McMillan, NAR president. NAR believes that many of the actions called for in the Treasury plan should result in lower mortgage rates and fewer foreclosures.
In a functioning system, whoever cut the loan is responsible, and can go after the liar they loaned to. We probably need to build new courts and hire new judges from the ranks of newly unemployed lawyers just to clear the back-log in state courts...
It makes me think of the record companies going after those nasty little music stealers. As soon as they got one of those cute little girls in court the record companies seemed a bit too powerful and mean spirited. The same thing would happen with going after home loans. The mtg holders would look like they were committing class warfare and assigning prisoners to a life of servitude and penury for trying to better their lives at the advice of those making the loans. Remember "Unlock the value of your home" advertisements? If spun the right way, it could actually get people into the streets protesting the bailout of banks.
12th percentile,
It looks like they are making the Road into a movie.
"The Road is an upcoming post-apocalyptic film directed by John Hillcoat and written by Joe Penhall. The film is based on the 2006 novel The Road by Cormac McCarthy"
thanks...i'll check out the book.
2-Year 99.844 0.96
10-Year 98.734 2.90
30-Year 96.734 3.68
KELLY'S HEROES.
MuAhahahahaha
The bank is broken, the USA is broken, the world is broken.
Thieves without borders. Globalization means no allegiances. Certainly none to outdated moral constructs. Piracy and plunder for all.
That is called 'borrowing' and it is being done for you whether you like it or not.
\t wally | \t \t \t \t02.13.09 - 2:08 pm | #
That's why I am planning on leaving North America within 5 months. I have substantial savings and will rather earn income and pay taxes in a country that more fairly treats its citizens.
$0.5 Million in savings + $0.25 Million in my personal GDP contribution for the next 30 years is gone.
I am voting with my wallet and my feet.
I'm not surprised an IT guy prefers Snow Crash.
I like your stuff. Keep doing it. I've found a great way to work on writing at work is to open up a page of code and then just type your stuff in the middle of it. Anyone comes into your office, they have no clue. I used to do that back when I lived in a cube.
Brawndo! The Thirst Mutilator. It's got electrolytes!
So you want to blame someone. Great, but two things fix it, and prosecute.
....oh yeah, nation of whiners, forgot.
Pardon me, terrorists and beaners. Can't forget the "Islamofascism" angle when you're playing the xenophobia card.
Religious bigotry is second only to racism when it comes to getting you to give up your freedom and CHEER for it, because now you've protected your babyangeldaughter who is God's own Hershey's Kiss.
There's always "one more cycle".
Until there isn't.
Here is a preview of Idiocracy that I found on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PHaAFCK7sk&feature=related
You get to see the Violence channel.
You get to see the visit to St. God's Hospital.
Absolute genius.
"The general idea is that in the future, the world is populated by stupider and stupider people because they are the ones procreating. In the opening future scene, we see one of our main characters sitting on a combination toilet and chair watching a large TV alternating between the violence channel and "bating" all while eating what looks like crisco out of a tub."
An earlier take: "The Marching Morons," by C.M. Kornbluth, back in the late '50s. Korthbluth was a hyper-cynical Madison Avenue guy -- well worth reading.
12th Percentile | 02.13.09 - 2:12 pm
Actually a pretty good idea. I found that the placement of the monitor, and what boxes are left in the way of the path to it works also.
In the inland empire, House purchase for $96k, rose to $384 in 06, now at $223. One refinance, pulled out 30K for improvements...Pre-foreclosed adjacent properties at 300K+...
god, there will blood on the streets...in more ways than anyone can imagine...and the problem will not be corrected over night...a lot of dead men walking...
Interesting Times writes:
That's why I am planning on leaving North America within 5 months. I have substantial savings and will rather earn income and pay taxes in a country that more fairly treats its citizens.
This is a country on planet Earth?
This makes me chuckle:
Fosters.com - Dover NH, Rochester NH, Portsmouth NH, Laconia NH, Sanford ME
"Gregg to Vote Against Stimulus Package"
Are they passing something today?
Eric | 02.13.09 - 1:59 pm
Probably just gas.
nova | Homepage | 02.13.09 - 2:00 pm | #
Better than a kidney stone.
I lol'd at this comment yesterday:
"All your house are belong to us!"
Can't forget it.
This is a country on planet Earth?
This is almost any other developed country on planet Earth.
I thought "Idiocracy" was a great concept, and I really wanted to like it going in, but it was really poorly executed. It had its moments.
This is almost any other developed country on planet Earth.
Markel | 02.13.09 - 2:17 pm | #
If you don't mind naming names, please name names. I'd love to know a Plan B.
Free Goverment money!
YouTube - Commercial - Matt Lesko Govt. loans
It's free!
IndyMac modified my loan to 2.375% for 5 years and then goes to 4.375 for remainder of the loan, 40 year mortgage now.
maggs | 02.13.09 - 1:56 pm | #
And it is now non recourse and you can't move because you are too deeply under water. Trapped for years and years in a worsening economy. Not a good option.
CR says: I'm curious - how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?
DOW +100 in 40 minutes plus Jamie Dimon's personal approval. Scratch behind the ears and he'll fetch your slippers.
This is a country on planet Earth?
\t query_tool | \t \t \t \t02.13.09 - 2:15 pm | #
The closest I could find is Brasil (that suited my personal situation). They are currently energy independent (sugar cane alcohol and large oil deposits). Their government has been improving significantly over the last few decades. No Gov is perfect... but they are currently significantly better than the US.
Large Oil companies are already setting up that Global IT infrastructure there.
Also - I speak the language and hold dual citizenship.
I know a mortgage broker husband and title agent wife where the wife just quit her job so they could be bailed out under any one of these new plans that look and income and then restructure loans (their parents are providing them extra money). These are exactly the people that Uncle Sam wants to help...irresponsible deadbeats who speculated in property and didn't get their way. Of course, for those who are young or are renting, it just means the insatiable desire to keep home prices propped up will continue. When this doesn't work as they expect, there will be ever larger bailouts.
Why not just give renters a $150K credit?
query_tool,
I agree it was pretty hard to watch, but then an entire movie about idiots probably should be.
"Why not just give renters a $150K credit?"
Could I have two, please?
Mark writes:
Why not just give renters a $150K credit?
Because they're looting the state, not trying to achieve actual policy ends.
I can't help thinking that this mortgage relief program is a lot like Section 8 housing... when the government makes your housing payments, the neighborhood really stablizes. Not.
lucy writes:
when the government makes your housing payments, the neighborhood really stablizes.
Stop blaming your neighbors, BANKER.
It's the people looting the country, BANKER.
Why foreclose if the gubbmint is hell bent on bailing out your non-performing loan.
This is a PR move. Another sham.
The government needs to immediately step aside and let borrowers and lenders deal with the problem.
If banks go bust, so be it. Let the bondholders exchange their debt for equity.
Also - I speak the language and hold dual citizenship.
Interesting Times | 02.13.09 - 2:19 pm | #
That's always a plus.
The_Littlest_Mandarin(Unrated) writes:
\tMark writes:
Why not just give renters a $150K credit?
Because they're looting the state, not trying to achieve actual policy ends.
\t The_Littlest_Mandarin | \t \t \t \t02.13.09 - 2:21 pm | #
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 02.13.09 - 2:21 pm | #
" can't help thinking that this mortgage relief program is a lot like Section 8 housing"
'We're All Section 8 Now" was my post from a few years ago.
The Duke of Con Dao posts here and appears to be living a nice life in Cambodia. Based on his posts he used to work on Wall Street.
He also seems to be an expert on marijuana milkshakes. I am not familiar with those and hope to travel more in the future.
The only people to benefit from these schemes are the insiders who know the ropes.
THose in dire straights are too damned busy to know what is going on.
Nostrovia,
Angry Saver writes:
Why foreclose if the gubbmint is hell bent on bailing out your non-performing loan.
That's right, if they FCed now, think of the state-granted revenue streams they'd miss in lieu of a paltry auction payment.
I thought "Idiocracy" was a great concept, and I really wanted to like it going in, but it was really poorly executed. It had its moments.
query_tool | 02.13.09 - 2:18 pm
The film is unfinished and mostly falls apart. But some of the jokes and gags are among the funniest I've seen in a while.
The rumor I heard is that some entities related to the film got cold feet from the anti-corporate message. I.E., Starbucks having planted shops on every street corner eventually starts offering street services.
I do feel like the Idiocracy future is more likely than we'd like to think.
Mark writes:
Why not just give renters a $150K credit?
Because they're looting the state, not trying to achieve actual policy ends.
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 02.13.09 - 2:21 pm | #
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
And CR Companion scratches another off the list.
IT - When we were all brainstorming that night about your best course of action, I don't think I ever heard the "leave the country and go live somewhere cheaper" option. That's a good option.
Interesting Times
I recommend you hold an "adoption contest".
nova writes:
I am looking at Bloomberg News and every listed under "Breaking News" is probably worth a topic here. CA looks determined to die, the rich are getting richer, and Europe is going broke.
Nova,
I think you've got last weeks paper.
Mr. Beach -- I agree with your take.
I think before I saw it my expectations got built up by articles like this Reviewing Mike Judge's Idiocracy. - By Reihan Salam - Slate Magazine
when the government makes your housing payments, the neighborhood really stablizes. Not.
lucy | 02.13.09 - 2:21 pm | #
The thing that comes to my mind is, when the govt. makes your housing payments, they can tell you what you can and can't do in their house.
But that's just me.
That's always a plus.
\t Outsider | \t \t \t \t02.13.09 - 2:23 pm | #
The other options are not so good... Canada and EU is not fairing very well right now.
And it is now non recourse and you can't move because you are too deeply under water. Trapped for years and years in a worsening economy. Not a good option.
Well I didn't plan on moving at all, wanted to stay in my house until i drop dead, my payments now are $1200 per month including taxes and insurance, it is less than i would pay to rent a house.
when the government makes your housing payments, the neighborhood really stablizes. Not.
lucy | 02.13.09 - 2:21 pm | #
There's a reason we have a thing called "the foreclosure process." Without it, we have a tragedy of the commons. There are so many people hanging by a thread that will jump on a free mortgage, this plan will fail before it even starts. Add in the inevitable fraud, and $1 trillion won't even scratch the surface.
Not enough money to fill the hole. Throw everything in it and still a deficit.
All those pretty numbers and digits on printed papers: USD, bank statements, broker and trade receipts, mortgage demands--now mumbo jumbo. Confetti them all, we're in a new dimension.
In a few weeks you'll know that of which I speak.
one option that has not been looked at yet is how the fed govt can team up with state govts to solve this by implementing a sliding property tax. how it works is say the current prop tax is 5%, what you do is that if the person has the property paid off (no mortgage) then their tax now becomes 15%, if your house is worth more than your mortgage your tax is 8%, if it is
The only mods that would or could work are those that cram down the principal to the amount of the mtg now, have a fair interest rate, and that's it.
Someone said Citi was offering to cram itself down. Not so when I asked a couple of days ago.
This is just sooo stupid. The condo is worth half the mtg amount. Just who is going to buy a unit in a condo in trouble for 2ce what it is worth.
Had a client come in today who did something so stupid, and so complicated that I can't believe it. For hardly any money. My secy said she didn't understand. I said, well, she understood that she was putting her name on 350k worth of indebtedness, right? Which was over 10 xs her salary. She said she didn't say it was to live in but investment property. God knows what they put on the application.
Canada and EU is not fairing very well right now.
That wasn't the question. It was, what countries treat their citizens more fairly? That's pretty much every developed country.
I saw a statistic just a couple of years ago: When you cut the same top 5% out of both populations, the average Canadian is significantly better off than the average American. Forget whether the measure was standard of living, income, or assets, but there you could probably dig it up. Just one example.
BFF may be the USG on Monday. We guarantee all deposits! But the reboot button got pushded.
idea was cut off
if you are 10% underwater then you pay 0 tax and if 20% underwater you get back 5% from the state.
fuck all annoying.
The market has to be pumped up today because otherwise tons of hedge funds will be in default.
Outsider - my wife added her input too
If I understand correctly, and correct me if I am wrong, The US govt, since the end of WWII decided to place on the govt. balance sheet debt in order to increase the wealth of the public...I think I heard this somewhere...
The end result, was that the net result of private/govt assets increased over liabilities so that, as a whole, the nation as a whole became more wealthy...
However, this happened over years as opposed to months...the one thing I see happening now as opposed to then was the optimism...
With the govt. spending all this money, why are we not more positive...
I suspect that we are not more optimistic is that no goals are being provided where we go from here other than downward into stagnation...
Heck, the pres, whoever he is, is required to paint a picture of the future, where we are going...
O must provide a vision of our future direction, if he wants us to proceed forward...
I have no idea where that vision is, however, to date, he has not provided it...
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
And CR Companion scratches another off the list.
Be sure to mark my regular handle "irritating" as well.
Case in point: wife and I rent a 2500 sqft house for $1500/month. Just the two of us. Family of 5 next door paid $400K for their 1500 sqft place mid-2005. Payment $3K/month. Periodic loud shouting arguments, husband at home a lot lately.
WTF does Obama think they'll do? These guys have kept current up 'till now...
The market has to be pumped up today because otherwise tons of hedge funds will be in default.
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.13.09 - 2:33 pm | #
We need a Mad Libs
The market needs to be
a) pumped up
b) crushed
c) quiet
today because
a) shorties
b) hedge funds
c) the government
d) Bill Gross
e) option writers
f) option buyers
will be
a) unhappy
b) liquidated
c) proven correct
d) too rich
e) too poor.
I cannot imagine any bank would voluntarily reduce principal now.
This is a game of three way chicken:
As long as borrowers and banks don't blink, the panic level continues to rise for the suckers.
Eventually the suckers blink and decide to 'split-the-difference' or some equally stupid and help out.
Prop. 13 is toast in Ca.
No way around it...
Ciao
MS
That is "property".
There isn't enough money in the world to prop up prices more than a little bit.
That said, empty houses do worse than houses with people in them, except for bums and teenagers. The lenders can't sell or finish foreclosures. So why not a moratorium?
Outsider - my wife added her input too
Interesting Times | 02.13.09 - 2:33 pm | #
She's a smart one. Hang onto that one.
Eric - If you're putting Bill Gross in as a noun, you need to add "sodomized" as a verb. Thanks.
You know the article CR referenced says "some home loans"...oh Tanta, I miss you.
blackhat | 02.13.09 - 2:04 pm | #
Tanta would actually get on my case when I said stupid stuff. I felt like a slightly less dishonest human being when she was around.
We need a lot more people like her in the US today.
The president must provide direction of where we want to go and how we get there...everything else is/are the minor details...
MS writes:
Prop. 13 is toast in Ca.
Thanks for the laugh.
Here in California, we always vote for an increase in services and reduction in taxes.
What planet do you live on?
@ Max,
Xactly,
I am in the same position. My rent is at least $1,000 less than my next door neighbors (identical...it's a twin house) mortgage payments. I live in a nice place in a great neighborhood and am living far cheaper than any "owner" who purchased at any time over the last 5 years.
I won't buy again until I can buy and pay equal to or less than rent assuming PITI and maintenance expenditures.
And even then I would be hesitant since homes are going to keep dropping and go nowhere for a long time so why give up the flexibility?
Since starting AIG Financial Products in 1987, Mr Cassano, 53, is thought to have earned almost £200million.
Earned. I don't think that word means what you think it means.
"The market has to be pumped up today because otherwise tons of hedge funds will be in default."
That was Paulson's plan from the get go for getting Cox to ban shorting if I remember correctly.
Weaken them and you have less competition. But hey that was last year...we've so moved on from that...
Ciao
MS
I have no idea where that vision is, however, to date, he has not provided it...
losr&confused | 02.13.09 - 2:34 pm | #
I suspect because the solution to get us out of this mess is not going to be very popular.
Stimulus bill passed in the House
The vote was 246 to 183. No Republicans voted for the measure.
Yawn.
I suspect because the solution to get us out of this mess is not going to be very popular.
Outsider | 02.13.09 - 2:40 pm
Listening to the Geithner interviews, I think the Administration may very well believe that time, capital and liquidity will return us back to prosperity.
I won't buy again until I can buy and pay equal to or less than rent assuming PITI and maintenance expenditures.
Mr. T. | 02.13.09 - 2:39 pm | #
Or if the USG pays your mortgage for you.
great, banks can drag their asses another few months... way to clear out the deadwood before the spring sales season, guys
A pretty fitting editorial cartoon by Walt Handelsman today
Walt Handelsman Cartoons - Newsday Blogs - Political Cartoons
Mr beach-
I too, live in Cal. and it's not going to be something that is voted on. Take a look at how they are trying to raise taxes across the board.
Sure it's political suicide however that is rapidly loosing meaning enough to not do it.
SD County is about to sue the state for the lack of funding. Wrongly so IMO...however the issue with Prop. 13 is not if but when.
Ciao
MS
Eric - If you're putting Bill Gross in as a noun, you need to add "sodomized" as a verb. Thanks.
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.13.09 - 2:38 pm | #
True dat.
I keep waiting for him to get hosed, and it never happens. I really want to know whose in the pictures he has, and what farm animals are also in the frame.
MS writes:
Prop. 13 is toast in Ca.
Aesop's fable The Mice in Council:
LONG ago, the mice had a general council to consider what measures they could take to outwit their common enemy, the Cat. Some said this, and some said that; but at last a young mouse got up and said he had a proposal to make, which he thought would meet the case. You will all agree, said he, that our chief danger consists in the sly and treacherous manner in which the enemy approaches us. Now, if we could receive some signal of her approach, we could easily escape from her. I venture, therefore, to propose that a small bell be procured, and attached by a ribbon round the neck of the Cat. By this means we should always know when she was about, and could easily retire while she was in the neighbourhood. This proposal met with general applause, until an old mouse got up and said: That is all very well, but who is to bell the Cat? The mice looked at one another and nobody spoke. Then the old mouse said: IT IS EASY TO PROPOSE IMPOSSIBLE REMEDIES.
So. Will you be belling the cat MS?
If a vision is provided by o and accepted by the majority of society, then how you get there is irrelevant...
My concern is where does he want to take up?
To date, and I know its very early in his term, but this is critical...
Where do you want to take us? Before I sacrifice today's advantages, what will I gain/lose in the future if am not contributing...
Listening to the Geithner interviews, I think the Administration may very well believe that time, capital and liquidity will return us back to prosperity.
Mr. Beach | 02.13.09 - 2:42 pm | #
I've almost given up trying to divine the thought behind the actions. All I see is chaos.
I've said it before and will say it again, the $787B stimulus plan will be offset to a great deal by higher long term interest rates.
708B stimulus bill passed? Check
Foreclosure prevention plan announced? Check
2.5T banking stabalization plan announced? Check
Dow below 8000? Check
why give up the flexibility?
Mr. T. | 02.13.09 - 2:39 pm | #
That's a key point, Mr. T. Even more so in today's job market.
"So. Will you be belling the cat MS?"
I don't have to....what other choice do they have? YOu have to look at this from a practical standpoint.
They want to double DMV fee's, more gas tax, and a host of other taxes. Still doesn't come close to the deficit.
I am simply speaking to the state having no other choice. You don't have to like it, I don't either but eventually that will be all they have left.
Ciao
MS
"Here in California, we always vote for an increase in services and reduction in taxes."
You've perfectly described the state of Oregon.
Ciao
MS
What is the practical mechanism for repealing Prop 13 in California? Another proposition? Or can the Assembly vote it away?
Listening to the Geithner interviews, I think the Administration may very well believe that time, capital and liquidity will return us back to prosperity.
Mr. Beach | 02.13.09 - 2:42 pm | #
Well, I guess that beats: Most of you are going to lose your homes, and your jobs, and there is going to be a lot of pain until we deflate back to planet earth, and then only slowly are we going to crawl our way back to civilization.
And that's leaving out the scenarios of other countries.
Hoo boy. I better get doing something else. Thinking about this is a huge downer.
MS,
It's not just CA that has budget problems. NJ is in a world of hurt too. And although property taxes are already outrageous here, they keep rising by 6% each and every year.
I continue to believe that more and more states and local governments will be forced to raise taxes on real estate as NJ has. When you think about it, it allows governments to extract rent via taxes rather than allowing banks to extract that rent via interest.
More reasons to dislike real estate and financials.
one option that has not been looked at yet is how the fed govt can team up with state govts to solve this by implementing a sliding property tax. how it works is say the current prop tax is 5%, what you do is that if the person has the property paid off (no mortgage) then their tax now becomes 15%, if your house is worth more than your mortgage your tax is 8%, if it is
darkmatter | 02.13.09 - 2:29 pm | #
No good deed goes unpunished
Dow below 8000? Check
Pissed Off In California | 02.13.09 - 2:46 pm | #
Market opens in 14 minutes.
This is going to sound stupid, however men are heard or pack animals, that follow a leader...Not going into the way females think, not qualified...
Societies today are hierarchical, male dominated (though I believe that its time for women to rule, they can't do any worst)...
Since we have placed so much in the imperial presidency to solve our problems, the society needs direction/goal...JFK wanted to land on the Moon in 10 years...It was done because resources were devoted to meet that goal...
So, where does O want us to go?
This is critical...If we accept the goals as a society or at least the govt., then we will find the way to finance it...
MS writes:
"So. Will you be belling the cat MS?"
I don't have to....what other choice do they have? YOu have to look at this from a practical standpoint. They want to double DMV fee's, more gas tax, and a host of other taxes. Still doesn't come close to the deficit. I am simply speaking to the state having no other choice. You don't have to like it, I don't either but eventually that will be all they have left.
The mere "prospect" of CA Prop 13 being circumvented would so completely crush the housing market as to negate any ability of the State to address the consequences. If it looked like 13 was going to go away millions of 60/70 somethings would cash out at fire sale prices. Just what is needed, more inventory, lower prices and equity fleeing the State.
So who officially goes bankrupt this long weekend?
General Growth Properties?
XM Sirius?
Charter Communications?
Charter has declared already, no? GGP will make it at least until March 15. If I had to choose from those 3, it would be XM Sirius.
Not sure about practicality aspect however on a larger scale it IS illegal for the Fed to pursue it's course of saddling the country with debt....that whole "exigent circumstances" thing that is allowed to be used without any congressional approval.
I can see a similar line of strategy being employed here. After-all it would really bring our prop. tax in line with the bulk of the country....New Jersey being a pretty prime example.
If you really look hard at the circumstances of what is transpiring here I don't see many other viable alternatives.
Ciao
MS
Obama's going to pay my mortgage!
Yay!
Muzak, the company that supplies the music you hear in elevators, couldn't refinance their debt and declared bankruptcy. Didn't know there was a company devoted to just that until I read the news on their bankruptcy.
The Muzak's over: It's the end for the most reviled phenomena of the 20th century -
News, Music - The Independent
Wonderful. Bailouts coming for specuvestor landlords who bought a handful of properties, all owner-occupied, hoping to flip them.
EVERYBODY GETS A CAR
EVERYBODY GETS A CAR
EVERYBODY GETS A CAR
If prop 13 is a viable plan...so are spending cuts.........
Just sayin'
Nostrovia,
Peanut Corporation of America, breaking BK on WSJ.com
Where will we get our peanut paste?
"I need my own bathroom; I need my own kitchen."
Your wish is granted. We just need to soak these doctors, entreprenuers and subsequent generations.
Every got their positions on for the last trading session before the bank holiday?
"Here in California, we always vote for an increase in services and reduction in taxes."
You've perfectly described the state of Oregon.
Ciao
MS
MS
.
True. Except for police-- that would interfere with pot and meth production.
"Muzak, the company that supplies the music you hear in elevators, couldn't refinance their debt and declared bankruptcy."
So, what will you hear when you call their Accounts Payable Dept, giggling?
Remember these are state gov't officials and without a funding source it's pretty easy to see how you wouldn't need alot of them around.
They know this.....risking political suicide is easier to swallow if you look at the alternatives.
I don't want to pay higher taxes however California is quickly approaching critical status. So even if you don't remove Prop 13. the taxes you pay on many other things will be equal or greater than doing nothing with it in the first place.
Either case we loose and pay higher taxes....pick you poison....two payments with impounds that are a known quantity (but higher then historically speaking) or ?
I vote known... not ?
Ciao
MS
"Muzak, the company that supplies the music you hear in elevators, couldn't refinance their debt and declared bankruptcy."
This is pretty ironic given the fact that Muzak really got its start out of the last depression. It was one of the huge winners last time we had a great depression.
scone,
"Except for police-- that would interfere with pot and meth production."
I thought the bribes by the latter bought services from the former?
Nostrovia,
Moody's is looking to downgrade UK from AAA.
Moody's is looking to downgrade UK from AAA.
Link pls
Eric,
pfft, 4T in spending announced and the most they can get us to is 8200 perhaps on the DOW?
No way 7500 holds in the next 6 months.
"...how do you measure success when the borrowers aren't already in default?"
However you want to! Just like measuring jobs saved. You simply pick whatever number makes you look good and then claim that as the result. Nobody can disprove you. It's a guaranteed success.
Of course, prevention is a wise strategy.
I read the UK-moodys thing here.
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN1227158320090212
"Wonderful. Bailouts coming for specuvestor landlords who bought a handful of properties, all owner-occupied, hoping to flip them."
Irving | 02.13.09 - 2:58 pm | #
47.
47 homes bought between 2003-2007.
All in default.
The guy was only going month to month on the leases. He didn't know which homes/loans would be reworked or even kept.
This is who is getting saved.
Yes,he mentioned a couple of the current disasters who financed him.
But he still has his SL600!
I feel fucking stupid for being a cheap bastard and not jumping in...
Great Britain may face "lasting impairment" from the credit crisis owing to the over-sized role of the City and high levels of private debt, endangering its elite "AAA" credit rating for the first time in history.
No way 7500 holds in the next 6 months.
Pissed Off In California | 02.13.09 - 3:06 pm | #
I may need to start buying short ETFs instead of puts.
We just need to soak these doctors, entreprenuers and subsequent generations.
lama | 02.13.09 - 3:00 pm | #
I think you're on to something. We need to start demonizing those evil, greedy unborn children that don't want to share their huge paychecks.
"Bloomberg TV reporting the BofA bank splitting into Corporate and Investment Bank."
See we can get a good bank/bad bank
anonymous writes:
'We're All Section 8 Now" was my post from a few years ago.
Anonymous | 02.13.09 - 2:23 pm | #
No it wasn't, it was mine
anonymous | 02.13.09 - 3:07 pm | #
I remember that and anonymous is correct.
If O had a outstanding vision, keep it to one item, then it should be the NEW ENERGY SOURCE to drive the world...
I suspect that this is what all Americans could get behind...Set a deadline of 10 years to be totally self sufficient...It would spur jobs in scientific, engineering and construction...
This should be on the scale, if not larger than the Moon landing...
I say, O should pick one idea that everyone agrees on, and set a time table and funding to reach it...
If we can do this, I suspect everyone, but the oil companies could get behind...
Science, engineering and construction would be redirected to this goal...the world would be happy, because in would reduce pollution...
I say go for it!!!
"I may need to start buying short ETFs instead of puts. :)"
I'll sell you mine as soon as I get the Chrysler building out of my ass (:
50 billion! That's a lot of executive bonuses!
Drink up boys. It's on my grand kids.
"Rig for dive.... RIG FOR DIVE!!!"
I'll sell you mine as soon as I get the Chrysler building out of my ass (:
Pissed Off In California | 02.13.09 - 3:12 pm | #
Some people pay good money for that.
"If O had a outstanding vision, keep it to one item, then it should be the NEW ENERGY SOURCE to drive the world..."
I know, how about using the hot-air coming out of the administration?
What's the next stick-save at 3:30pm? Obama saying that they're not joking, they really are serious about a foreclosure plan on Wednesday?
Heh... CNBC investment advice "Buy puts when the SecTreas is going to explain something.... it's been working for months".
Anonymous writes:
anonymous writes:
'We're All Section 8 Now" was my post from a few years ago.
Anonymous | 02.13.09 - 2:23 pm | #
No it wasn't, it was mine
anonymous | 02.13.09 - 3:07 pm | #
I remember that and anonymous is correct.
Anonymous | 02.13.09 - 3:10 pm | #
I agree, and I am surprised at how big our little family has grown over the years.
scone,
"Except for police-- that would interfere with pot and meth production."
I thought the bribes by the latter bought services from the former?
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
.
It did, until the meth heads started taking potshots at the cops' kids. It's back in the archives somewhere. Anyway, the cops make a lot more money on traffic stops, because the locals here get a portion of the winnings.
I don't want to pay higher taxes however California is quickly approaching critical status. So even if you don't remove Prop 13. the taxes you pay on many other things will be equal or greater than doing nothing with it in the first place.
Ciao
MS
California has already gone over the edge. Unless D.C. pulls them back it will be chaos. Prop. 13 is delivering more money in 2009 than in 2008. This is a bad thing? Your mistake is in assuming the removal of Prop. 13 will result in more money from property taxes and that even if more money does come from property taxes that it will also result in gross more tax revenue from all sources. There's just no reason to assume this.
Prop 13 in CA is definitely not toast. Notice that everyone but property owners will pay for the state's budgetary problems. California is infatuated with preserving deadbeat retirees, trust fund babies, and welfare scam artists so they can own multiple properties and pay taxes at circa 1960 levels. Instead, those who actually contribute to the economy (working), they get raked over the coals. This will never end in Cal.
Tim Geithners new bailout plan, TARP 2: Financial Boogaloo, has received the most scathing response possible: Jim Cramer says it is a good idea.
IMG: http://lolfed.com/wp-content/uploads/timdoesnotwant.jpg
Never A Good Sign
Frazier is going to be smacked today
the ppt is on their way to rome
OT: From the soon to be published Earnings Trends, all figures refer to the S&P 500 or ther firms in the index:
\tStill heading south, 2009 expectations fall 1.49% in a week
\t2009 expectations down 12.9% over the last month, 2010 down 8.4%
\tOver 3/4 done with earnings season
\t4Q total net income expected to be 34.2% below year ago
\tReports so far (388 total) are ugly, total net income 37.5% below a year ago
\tSurprise Ratio 1.76:1, median Surprise 2.47%, both below normal
\tExcluding Financials, total earnings down 20.5% so far
\tMore than 1/3 of all 09 mean estimates down more than 10%, 1/6 down more than 25% over the last month.
\tTotal net income in 09 now expected to fall 11.2%, following 13.3% 2008 decline
\tP/Es based on 2009 estimates will prove to be to low as E plunges
\tFinancials red ink $18.2 Billion vs. $9.3 Billion black ink last year
\tBottom up estimate for S&P 500 now $64.15 in 2009, down from $65.12 a week ago, I think we will be lucky if it is over $55.
Total Net Income Growth
The rate of decline in earnings expectations for both this year and next is downright scary, and is among the worst seen in the history of earnings expectations data. The ratio of estimate cuts to increases remains near five cuts per increase. It has been there for months now, which suggests that analysts have slashed their estimates, and then had too come back in just a few months and hack at them again. There is no evidence what so ever that the analysts have gotten ahead of the curve of deteriorating business conditions across just about every sector. If one aggregates all the earnings estimates for the companies in the S&P 500, it is now expected that the S&P 500 will earn $64.15 in 2009, down from $65.12 and down from $73.62 just a month ago. If you think that the S&P 500 will really earn $64.15 in 2009, please, please, please double check on the type of mushrooms in your omelet, and do not drive or operate heavy machinery. Estimates in motion tend to remain in motion. At this point even $55 in earnings seems very optimistic, and $50 much more plausible.
So from an investors point of view, the big question becomes: What sort of multiple is reasonable to put on $50 worth of earnings. At the 2/12/09 close of 835.19, that puts the multiple at 16.7x. For the market to go up, the earnings will have to come in higher than that, or we will have to see multiple expansion. Granted interest rates are low (provided you happen to be the U.S. government) and inflation is clearly not a problem at this point. Historically low interest rates and low inflation have tended to be associated with high P/E multiples. One could argue that these are depressed earnings and as such deserve a higher multiple. After all, the expectations for 2010 currently stand at $79.54, so the market is only trading at 10.5x which is relatively cheap. The problem with that argument is that the 2010 earnings have been falling almost as fast as the 2009 earnings estimates. The 2010 estimate stood at $86.80 just a month ago. The earnings in 2010 are extremely unlikely to end up at anything close to $79.54, although the fog of ignorance and time prevent getting to specific at this point. However, to hazard a reasonably informed guess, the current estimate of $64.15 for 2009 might plausibly be achieved in 2010.
The results for the fourth quarter have been horrific, with the total net income reported down 37.5% from a year ago. The handful of firms left to report have somewhat better (less worse?) prospects, with a decline of just 12.9%. On a combined basis then, earnings are expected to be down 34.2%. The damage is widespread, with only two sectors, Health Care and Utilities expected to earn more in the fourth quarter of 2008 than they did in the fourth quarter of 2007. One other sector, Consumer Staples is expected to have a relatively flat quarter, down just 2.2%, but every other sector is expected to be down at least 18%. Consumer Discretionary and Materials, two of the most cyclical sectors are the worst hit, along with the Financial sector which is gushing red ink like the black knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Dont look for much improvement in the first quarter either, with total net income now expected to be 31.2% below a year ago. Just last week, the expectations were for just a 28.5% decline. Every sector is expected to be down, and for seven of the ten sectors the declines are expected to be worse than those in the fourth quarter.
Sorry, I think one of those anonymous posts is mine,...but I can't tell which one.
I am not sure how old you are, but in the early sixties, after the sputnik was launched, the US (JFK) set a goal of landing on the Moon by 10 years...
It did wonders for our educational system...it created engineers and scientists...it upgraded our educational system...
Do not laugh at the motivational response of America to a challenged that catches the attention of the public, especially if national security is involved...
Just another bailout.
The Latest from Mish:
Banks Plan To Dump $50 Billion In Troubled Mortgages On Taxpayers
Time to change my rating there, ac.
I'd like to see a requirement that any homeowner who receives federal aid has been current on their mortgage for at least three to five years. Anyone who just refinanced or had an ARM should show they have at least some ability to pay.
losr&confused:
If we accept the goals as a society or at least the govt., then we will find the way to finance it...
It's true. Look at the great luck the Aztecs had keeping the sun from dying.
the ppt is on their way to rome
Agreed. Today's market action shows that the bench at the ppt is just not up to snuff.
Hoo boy. I better get doing something else. Thinking about this is a huge downer.
Outsider | 02.13.09 - 2:49 pm | #
I had to stop reading CR comments and do a new blog post. I feel better now, at least about my ability to grow kale
prop 13 will never be revoked, though commercial and mutliunits might lose their status
California is infatuated with preserving deadbeat retirees, trust fund babies, and welfare scam artists so they can own multiple properties and pay taxes at circa 1960 levels.
How true. I know several Trust Fund Babies who are paying practically nothing for multi million dollar houses in Laguna Beach and Mill Valley.
They are the clueless scum at the top, but the pot really needs stirring at this point, or the scum will remain at the top.
So about $800 Billion to save or create 4 million jobs. That's about $200,000 of taxpayer expense for each job. Those jobs will probably pay around $40k... So we spend about five dollars for each one dollar of benefit.
Oh yeah, I forgot the 1.4 GDP multiplier... So the stimulus will only cost about three times the benefit.
Didn't we have some sort of a goal of being on Mars by 2010 or something? How did that go?
Can I get Sebastians view on Dirks post above ? (:
and now that we're back up at 49 on tbt, let me lulz again at the treasury longs
our national security is a laugh-67 compuetrs missing from los alamos-pakistan has a better nuclear weapon building capacity than we do right now
I am not sure how old you are, but in the early sixties, after the sputnik was launched, the US (JFK) set a goal of landing on the Moon by 10 years...
losr&confused | 02.13.09 - 3:20 pm | #
In the early part of this century, Bush set a goal of putting a man on Mars and No Child Left Behind,...and here we are.
A case of history trying to rhyme orange.
oh my
Harvard Business Review is normally somewhat interesting in some aspect. Now it's just see Wall St., don't be like Wall St, nobody likes Wall St. Turns out this whole problem was lavish decorating and excessive bonuses, nothing more.
Wonder is Suzy Welch will get the boot . . . because even the people who can afford the subscription, have no use for subpar toilet paper
all our leaders are globalists-no loyalty to this country
California is infatuated with preserving deadbeat retirees, trust fund babies, and welfare scam artists so they can own multiple properties and pay taxes at circa 1960 levels.
That's 1975 values not 1960 plus 2%/yr compounded. Do the math. Even those 1978 buyers are paying 1.85% property tax rates while their recent buying neighbors are paying 1.00%. This is in excess of the historic Case-Shiller trend.
Mr. Market showing a little up curlage here.....
"In the early part of this century, Bush set a goal of putting a man on Mars and No Child Left Behind,...and here we are."
I thought that was called the "No Child Left A Dime" bill.
If we can just hold snp 830, everything will be ok.
technical traders, I mock you.
"Instead, those who actually contribute to the economy (working), they get raked over the coals. This will never end in Cal."
Not just California. At the Federal level too.
All spending is ultimately paid for by those who produce.
I have always found that the way to cure a deadbeat is to give him/her more money.
[/sarcasm]
Joanna,
Great site, my envy of you just went up 3 notches. If there was a piece of rural land here that I could even remotely afford, I'd be following in your footsteps.
"Even those 1978 buyers are paying 1.85% property tax rates while their recent buying neighbors are paying 1.00%. This is in excess of the historic Case-Shiller trend."
uh, ok. the reality is a personally know of a house which would instantly appreciate by 1000% the day it was sold, and there are literally millions of houses that fit that description in california.
so boo-hoo - paying a grand a year in tax on a house currently worth over 500K AFTER 30% deflation isn't such a rough road.
Gee. We never paid of the debt from WWII, the Great Society and Ronnie "The Union Buster" Reagan? Georgie Bush the 2nd makes it three strikes in row. Massive deficits worked only once out of four tries.
So ... let's spend a whole bunch more!
Stand back, the pony is about to poop a one foot long unbroken one.
CNN poll: Who is most to blame for the nation's economic condition?
Politicians\t28%\t
Lending institutions\t33%\t
Shopaholic consumers\t9%\t
Federal agencies (SEC, Fannie Mae, etc.)\t14%\t
Investment firms\t11%\t
Housing industry\t5%\t
Total Votes: 112046
What, no Federal Reserve? No Goldman Sucks?
Losr: Ya gotta keep the patient breathing before you develop a treatment plan.
Obama just trying to stop the bleeding.
America's Emptiest Cities
Vacancy rates in these spots spell lots of empty neighborhoods.
Call it a modern-day tale of two cities.
For decades, Las Vegas, ripe with new construction and economic development, burgeoned into a shimmering urban carnival. Detroit, once the fulcrum of American industry, sagged and rusted under its own weight.
These days, it's the worst of times for both.
Las Vegas edged Detroit for the title of America's most abandoned city. Atlanta came in third, followed by Greensboro, N.C., and Dayton, Ohio.
Should be very post industrial cybepunk soon--
Abandoned cities with tribal communities.
Doesn't this just say it all:
link
Summers Sees Investor Interest in Toxic-Debt Fund (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Timothy R. Homan and Matthew Benjamin
STORY TO FOLLOW.
I can and have been as pessimistic as you, however I am attempting to change the dynamic...I really believe that this can work if a explicit challenge is made(based upon what the public wants/desires) and a hell of a sales job to the public...
How can anyone deny energy independence as unacceptable? It needs to be stated as the primary goal of the current administration and it takes precedence over all other goals...
Do not get me wrong, SS and Medcare should be universal, however, that does not excite the younger folks that are looking for a commitment before they spend precious time in learning a career...
Money and debt is important in planning ones career, however time spent is critical...The young future scientists and engineers need a long term govt committed goal before they buy in...
Can anyone say "Monopoly Market Collusion"
50 Billion?
CNBC "House of Cards" was talking trillions...
Any "moratorium" would and is just self serving on the part of the banks. If they wait maybe Uncle SUgar will be tossing in lots of taxpayer cash to offset their losses. This has nothing to do with altruism and trying to help homeowners.
Should be very post industrial cybepunk soon--
Subcommander Doom | 02.13.09 - 3:30 pm | #
It's 2009 and I still don't have a datajack to my brain!
"Losr: Ya gotta keep the patient breathing before you develop a treatment plan.
Obama just trying to stop the bleeding."
When the patient comes in with a gunshot to the head what's the use?
If there was a piece of rural land here that I could even remotely afford, I'd be following in your footsteps.
DeflationaryJane | 02.13.09 - 3:26 pm | #
We bought in mid-bubble 2005. A teeny tiny well-kept farmhouse on 1.25 acres. We paid $180K and re-fi'd to get a garage built to $189. 30yr fixed around 5.25% something around $1300/mo. We're nowhere close to underwater, can afford payments on one income if need be, and can grow our own food.
But we both sold other real estate to get this one, and made a decent downpayment. It's our last shot hopefully, and I think we picked well for our needs and the downhill spiral we're heading into. Fingers crossed anyway.
"California has already gone over the edge. Unless D.C. pulls them back it will be chaos. Prop. 13 is delivering more money in 2009 than in 2008. This is a bad thing?"
Actually I am more supportive of knowing what my taxes will be then not.
I am not assuming that both = greater rev. for the state. Merely pointing out that I would like to see something that's grounded in a bit more reality then raising taxes on so many other things when a simple (yet painful) solution to some of the problems here are at hand.
As I pointed out previously it would mean that we pay along the lines of many other states. This is a key reason why we are so much worse (not by much) than other states.
Ciao
MS
rammin and jammin now.
Obamanation unite! It has been proclaimed the those who are more fortunate will assist those who are less so. This mandate goes beyond finances in a vacuum and includes smarts as well as deadbeat status, my friends. Those with more smarts must assist those with less. Those who are non-deadbeat must assist those who are. This is the Word of the Lord. Praise to You Lord Jesus Christ.
On a related note, my Obamaliscious neighbor has her whine level pegged at 9 every day regarding the use of her hard-earned money to fund deadbeat nation. I have yet to point out to her that deadbeat nation has been the single largest source of revenue for her business (leading to her fine home and all the toys and vacations and....), as they sucked on the HELOC teat before tranferring the magic juice to her. I love it.
there's no way you guys in cali can pay more in taxes. in raise in income, sales, ad valorem...total supernova.
How can anyone deny energy independence as unacceptable?
Well, after attaining some rudimentary knowledge of thermodynamics and evolutionary biology, you will not be asking that question.
Some days when I'm feeling down I like to think of the billions of dollars invested in the idea that commercial real estate will go up any year soon.
then i perk up.
And now it is east coast happy hour.
see you on the other side.
bond market closes in 1 minute. Lift off in equities to follow shortly after.
ille_vir writes:
It's 2009 and I still don't have a datajack to my brain!
Reminds me more and more of Hardwired every day, though. Just in general. My personal adventure are more like When Gravity Fails.
Good for you! I'm glad to see someone with common sense and practical skills. Now I'll go back to living viariously through your achievements and oogling your cats >; )
Come on Obama. Show me some change (in my pocket) you can believe in. You can close it green baby!
Paging Kermit.... you're on in five!
Regarding CA Prop 13 -- actually, property taxes should be eliminated. There is no justification for paying a tax on property. If there is a need for more state taxes, it should be totally paid from income taxes.
So who wants to wager N. Korea will do the long range test this weekend?
Pissed Off in California,
The patient came in with a head?
Mr. Beach writes:
And as they learned, the reality is a lot messier than they anticipated.
There are many, many extenuating circumstances that must be dealt with.
Nothing was as messy with as many extenuating circumstances as were the contrived MBS packages that the government quickly took off the banks books, at taxpayer expense. Not knowing how to deal with the citizens choking on their payments on the same mortgages, on their now worthless homes, testifies to congressional and administrative corruption in loyally serving their corporate and financial patrons at the double expense of the homeowner-taxpayer.
I doubt it will end peacefully.
Prop 13 taxes are based on the original value plus 2% escalation. The average home is owned for something like seven years, so the average property tax valuation would be at about 115% of 2002 levels today.
Obviously, some people have lower valuations if they have owned their home for a longer time. Someone who bought 20 years ago would be paying based on about 150% of 1989 value.
The people who have the best deal are those who bought at the low prices during the during the market bottoms of the mid 1980s and mid 1990s, and have never sold.
f the cycles.
DB-
Yes I agree but:
Capitol Journal - Los Angeles Times
They're going to do it regardless....
Ciao
MS
DeflationaryJane | \t \t \t \t02.13.09 - 3:36 pm | #
DeflationaryJane | 02.13.09 - 3:36 pm | #
Thank you BTW. I don't mean to sound smug, it's just that I never though things would turn out so awesome at my age, after my practice runs at life. It's a good feeling.
Now the cats, they're smug little bastards
Foreclosures have already plummeted 25% in January.
Retail sales was up 1% month over month in Jan.
http://goodnewseconomist.com
This week was a great week for good news like this from the top banks.
Happy Friday the 13th!
Losr: That's not Obama's job.
American has to decide what kind of society it wants & then tell Obama what they want done.
Mandarin said a great thing a coupla threads ago:
Until you're one of 'em, you are unfit to make decisions for 'em.
To heck with the Rabid Right & the Looney Left, Americans in the middle should speak up. And if that takes torches & pitchforks, well then....