Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let...fifty cents.
No phone, no pool, no pets
I ain't got no cigarettes
Ah, but..two hours of pushin' broom
Buys an eight by twelve four-bit room
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
Third boxcar, midnight train
Destination...Bangor, Maine.
Old worn out suits and shoes,
I don't pay no union dues,
I smoke old stogies I have found
Short, but not too big around
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
I know every engineer on every train
All of their children, and all of their names
And every handout in every town
And every lock that ain't locked
When no one's around.
I sing,
Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let, fifty cents
No phone, no pool, no pets
I ain't got no cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours of pushin' broom
Buys an eight by twelve four-bit room
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
Yep. Every time this little bit of dishonest, fraudulent dealing occurs in some tiny little corner of the financial system, a small amount of trust is destroyed and ripples out far beyond that bank and the customer it is stealing from, magnified beyond recognition as it touches huge numbers of other people.
ot per previous threads//So am I to understand the tinfoil hat crowd now believes the banksters are crashing satellites and nuclear subs into each other to intimidate our leaders?
Remarkable how closely the dropoff in HIP during the current recession mirrors that in 2000-2002. I believe we never really exited that recession, only papered it over with cheap mortgages.
"So am I to understand the tinfoil hat crowd now believes the banksters are crashing satellites and nuclear subs into each other to intimidate our leaders?"
"This has led to the spread of pseudo-objectivity: the search for standardized measures of achievement across large and disparate organizations. Its implicit premises were these: that information which is numerically measurable is the only sort of knowledge necessary; that numerical data can substitute for other forms of inquiry; and that numerical acumen can substitute for practical knowledge about the underlying assets and services.
A good deal of our current economic travails can be traced to this increasing valuation of purportedly objective criteria, so denoted because they can be expressed and manipulated in mathematical form by people who may be skilled at such manipulation but who lack concrete knowledge or experience of the things being made or traded. As Niall Ferguson has put it, Those whom the gods want to destroy they first teach math. The paradigmand the precursor of our current crisiswas the rise and fall of Long Term Capital Management, founded by two of the fathers of quantitative options financing, Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton. Knowing a great deal of math, but not very much history, they developed trading models that radically underestimated the risk entailed in their financial speculation, leading to a dramatic collapse of the company in the summer of 1998. But the phenomenon is more widespread. Attaching a number creates a belief that the information is more solid than is actually the case. That is what I mean by pseudo-objectivity. In each case, it is a response to what (to recoin a phrase) one might call alienation from the means of production, the attempt to substitute abstract and quantitative knowledge for concrete and qualitative knowledge."
There is a lot of really good stuff in this article. Again did the banks and investment firms know the financial engineering was flawed or not?
There is a lot of really good stuff in this article. Again did the banks and investment firms know the financial engineering was flawed or not?
lawn grass | 02.16.09 - 5:18 pm
I think the more obvious question is; Did they care?
Hotels and Motels are the pinnacle of discretionary shelter. If white picket fence SFRs are the bedrock thten hotels are the utmost stone of the Tower of Babel just on top of exotic properties like timeshares and condotels. God punishes hubris. The market does worse.
I do know somebody who still makes money on a room she bought at a condo hotel. She bought years ago for not much and I think has pulled money out of her own pocket maybe 2ce in the last 7-8 years.
Just when it became clear to pretty much everybody that merger of big banks to create even bigger banks is a BAD idea, France still wants to give it another try... I was hoping that at least there was some educational value from such recent US deals as WFC-Wachovia, BofA-Merryll/Countrywide
France May Take 20% Stake in Caisse dEpargne, Banque Populaire Bloomberg
The French government may acquire about 20 percent of the combined Groupe Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse dEpargne, the customer-owned banks in talks to merge, said three people with knowledge of the situation.
A state capital injection would help shore up Natixis SA, the unprofitable investment bank controlled by Caisse dEpargne and Banque Populaire, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential.
It's actually pretty common, especially in the seedier parts of town, usually with independent proprietors that don't care about the reputational effects.
The right historical way to look at this is to see it as part of the Reagan Revolution and its legacy. Reaganism was triumphant not so much because Reagan served two terms and was popular, but because his administration and leadership succeeded in restructuring the terms of debate for 28 years.
Reagan was part of that. Clinton came along in the middle, within the context of that restructured debate on issues. And then George W layed an enormous role by sitting by fecklessly (sorry Ness, nothing personal) while things visibly unravelled.
But the point is precisely not to focus so completely on the individuals (important though they may be) and, instead, to track the larger shifts in the terms of the discussion.
Bringing things up to the present, that is precisely what is so stunning about the past couple of weeks: There has already been a revolution in the terms of the discussion.
âIt is a dramatic time," said Darrell Steinberg, the State Senate's president pro tempore. âThe solvency of the state is on the line. It is really quite a system where the fat of the state rests upon the shoulders of a couple of members of a minority party. The system frankly needs to be changed."
"I feel that..like I am repeating myself, getting bored with my self..." says Meredith Whitney.
At video-minute 17:45, she says that banks with less "junk in the trunk" will fair better..." and that "banks are still structured along the "living la vida loca" model and that they need to show us something new, before private capital will return."
Just got to figure out how to convert the hotels to homeless shelters. Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 5:08 pm | #
I don't know whether that was a serious comment or ironic humor, but late last year San Bernardino County (CA) was looking for a hotel, preferably 160 rooms, to be used for that purpose. There was a 100 unit building in preforeclosure at the time, but I don't know if they ever closed on a property.
the attempt to substitute abstract and quantitative knowledge for concrete and qualitative knowledge."
lawn grass | 02.16.09 - 5:18 pm | #
The best backgammon players in the world can still beat the most powerful programs, even though the bots play perfectly after contact. The humans use some sophisticated math*, but the bots look at trillions of results 3 rolls ahead, and use "intelligent" rules culled from trillions of previously rolled out games. They crunch away at the numbers, but their human master thinks.
*e.g., match equity table Suppose the trailer is T-away, and that the difference between the two scores is D. Then the leader's equity in percent is approximately (85 D) 50 + ------- .(T + 6) For example, the equity at 3-away, 8-away is 50 + (5 x 85) / (8 + 6)= 50 + 425 / 14 = 80% from Kit Woolsey's "How to play tournament backgammon"
daily bail(Unrated) writes:
but where are the deals?
i've yet to see signs of panic.
True that. I'm waiting for better rates for our usual family spring break trip. Something modest, and in the U.S. Usually I tie it to a professional conference, but those meetings are in the Aloha state year. No way. The rates over there haven't budged, and the airfare is >1K. Was thinking Phoenix, San Antonio or even D.C. (anonymous jr.'s are the right age).
Am reading stories in the NYT/WSJ about how many professional conferences have been outright cancelled at the luxo places, yet when I call direct, it's still 2006. In the end, I can afford to go where I want, but I am interested to see which of these places is hungry and wants my business.
It's hungry where I live in flyover country. Restaurants, retail and lodging are dying. I don't see that changing soon either.
Maybe I'll stay home and watch the revolution in HD. I can TiVO the action stuff..
Fairfax County uses old motels to put up families until there is an opening in a shelter.
I was just checking house rentals at the beach. Not going down. All those 3 bedroom beach houses were replaced 8 bedroom monstrosities that want 4k or more per week. Got to make that mortgage
It's actually pretty common, especially in the seedier parts of town Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 5:23 pm | #
Okay, I see it was a serious comment. In the San Bernardino County case, they were looking for a unit for the High Desert and the emphasis was on homeless youth (18-24) which was State funded through a federal grant. They were hoping for the whole package, i.e., a proprietor who met State guidelines.
you were looking at Sullivan's Island and Isle of Palms, right? Charleston is still in a state of denial, as to the crash. Not unexpectedly, as SC is usually 1-2 years behind national trends.
Continuing with the homeless hotel story, it's become worse over the past 20 months:
The [2007 San Bernardino County] study found at least 7,331 homeless persons [county-wide], a 39.1 percent increase from 2003 when 5,270 homeless persons were recorded.
C&C - They are closing mid Aprilish, right after prime season. They usually stay open but this year bookings are way down so they are going to close it up for a month. I have heard that they are currently running 70% occupancy.
The NYT report on California matches my analysis of the structural roots of California's inability to deal with its budget problem:
California Struggles to Close a Projected $41 Billion Deficit
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LinkedinDiggFacebookMixxMy SpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalinkBy JENNIFER STEINHAUER
Published: February 16, 2009
LOS ANGELES The state of California its deficits ballooning, its lawmakers intransigent and its governor apparently free of allies or influence appears headed off the fiscal rails.
Since the fall, when lawmakers began trying to attack the gaps in the $143 billion budget that their earlier plan had not addressed, the state has fallen into deeper financial straits, with more bad news coming daily from Sacramento. The state, nearly out of cash, has laid off scores of workers and put hundreds more on unpaid furloughs. It has stopped paying counties and issuing income tax refunds and halted thousands of infrastructure projects.
After negotiating nonstop from Saturday afternoon until late Sunday night on a series of budget bills that would have closed a projected $41 billion deficit, state lawmakers failed to get enough votes to close the deal and adjourned. They returned to the capital late Monday morning only to adjourn until the afternoon, though it was far from clear whether they would be able to reach a deal.
California has also lost access to much of the credit markets, nearly unheard of among state municipal bond issuers. Recently, Standard & Poors downgraded the states bond rating to the lowest in the nation.
No other state is in the kind of crisis that California is in, said Iris J. Lav, the deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal research group in Washington. The roots of Californias inability to address its budget woes are statutory and political. The state, unlike most others, requires a two-thirds majority vote in the legislature to pass budgets and tax increases. And its process for creating voter initiatives hamstrings the budget process by directing money for some programs while depriving others of cash. NY Times
I would only add, as I posted earlier, that the disease of gridlock from supra-majority requirements, term limits, and several more referenda on budgeting produces a virus that spreads throughout the political institutions of the state: no power, no responsibility, no development of leadership.
Fears that Ireland's banking woes will send the Emerald Isle the way of Iceland has sent the cost of insuring sovereign Irish debt against default to record levels
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
Terry | 02.16.09 - 6:05 pm | #
The Ritz will be fine. The overpriced restaurants, ersatz nightclubs, wine bars, and coffee houses in Vail Village are going to be T.U. before the flowers bloom.
And you know what, that's fine. Locals don't ski there anyway. Can't afford to live there either.
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
Terry | 02.16.09 - 6:05 pm |
Anybody know how Whistler/Blackcomb is doing? Or driven Sea to Sky? Is that gonna get done in time before the Vancouver Olympics debacle.
Joe Schmoe wrote:
"I would only add, as I posted earlier, that the disease of gridlock from supra-majority requirements, term limits, and several more referenda on budgeting produces a virus that spreads throughout the political institutions of the state: no power, no responsibility, no development of leadership."
You are describing the symptoms, not the disease. All of those requirements, limits, and referenda were put in place because California kept spinning out of control with massive overspending and misplaced priorities. Those symptoms did not come out of a vacuum, but were imposed by the voters of the state who tried over and over again to for the politicians to behave responsibly. I'm not arguing that all of those restrictions and forced allocations were good ideas or the best way to go, but they were the best that the voters could do at the time they were implemented, because they were all that could be put on offer through the initiative/referendum system.
I think you're confusing cause and effect. California had irresponsible government before those changes, and it still does. Maybe it always will, unless someone comes up with a way to fix it. But it's not as easy as undoing the measures that were put in place to curb previous problems.
She is reviewing games like Resident Evil, now, what will she focus on next...what will be her tolerance for error, then? Already, it seems more intolerant that our recent crowd....
Aspen is the biggest bubble of all of the ski resorts...why do they need 8+condo towers in Snow mass??
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 6:10 pm | #
C/C : I might throw Telluride on that list too. Really hard to get there, and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing. It's secluded, and highly dependent upon out-state high rollers to keep the con alive. Plus, the locals have built up a militant dislike for tourists that is gonna come to a head soon for "ruining their town."
Actually, come to think of it, that goes double for Aspen. Hunter Thompson would be writing great (but probably incoherent) stuff about if he were still around.
I'm getting weekly emails offering stay 2 nights and get one night free. Also offering 2 ski lift tickets and a king size bed suite for $130 CAD. Last year that was $300-$400 same deal.
volker the viking writes:
All this talk about California, the 8th largest economy in the world....
makes Eastern Euroipe's problems seem less important. Maybe it's just me.
volker the viking | 02.16.09 - 6:13 pm | #
Somebody ( maybe it was me ) said the other night that the collapse was going to be a domino effect after a sovereign default. The prediction was Ireland, or U.K., then everybody. I would say California belongs on that list too, for sheer size. The fed would bail out the Golden State (too big to yadda yadda yadda), but I'm not sure the results would be pretty.
Hotels and Motels are the pinnacle of discretionary shelter. If white picket fence SFRs are the bedrock thten hotels are the utmost stone of the Tower of Babel just on top of exotic properties like timeshares and condotels. God punishes hubris. The market does worse. \t Rob Dawg | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.16.09 - 5:21 pm | #
Rob, some kind of traveler's shelter has been documented throughout history. It seems to fulfil SOME essential niche. Well, maybe not the Greeks, but the Romans certainly had inns, and they were an essential part of the medieval landscape as well. I would place them somewhere below timeshares!
"and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing"
LOL! What a dumb thing to say.
btw, I love Telluride. The air is a bit thin and the chairs old. But nobody has their noses pointed up, the food places are excellent, and cutzy little trendoids are comletley shunned.
Re Whistler - I was there a few weeks ago. Typical cement snow, but lotsa sun!
We went to Breckonridge. It was a headache and wind sucking experience.
Sea level is where humans were designed to live.
nova | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 6:19 pm | #
Was in Breckenridge (and Frisco) for a few days over the summer. Happened to visit a cemetary - don't ask - and noticed something. Very few "old" people buried there. Top age I saw was something like 65. I think the altitude has a self-selecting effect there...becomes too hard to move air, and those with COPD are out the door. They go down to the prarie to die.
My friend Ted Conover wrote an excellent book about Aspen: Whiteout: Lost in Aspen He grew up in Denver and was a ski instructor
His other books are about illegal immigrants, hobos riding the rails, and Sing Sing. He rode the rails for a year, and in fact became a corrections officer to investigate the system. I'm hoping his next project will involve becoming a banker.
The right historical way to look at this is to see it as part of the Reagan Revolution and its legacy. Reaganism was triumphant not so much because Reagan served two terms and was popular, but because his administration and leadership succeeded in restructuring the terms of debate for 28 years.
Reagan was part of that. Clinton came along in the middle, within the context of that restructured debate on issues. And then George W layed an enormous role by sitting by fecklessly (sorry Ness, nothing personal) while things visibly unravelled.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 5:24 pm | #
George W. Bush looked to history to raise his standing among presidents. What he ignored was the fact presidential statures can decline as well as rise. Reagan, I would say, is one whose ranking is going to sink a great deal. Two very critical books came out very recently that explore details of the "Reagan revolution" and we can expect more of those as the consequences of Reagan's presidency manifest themselves.
There is an answer to CA's problems. The state consists of two ideological enemies with nearly 100% opposite views. They will not reconcile.
Break up the state!
Coasts and Costal cities in one state (West CA) and Central/East in another state (East CA). The GOP will dominate East CA, and the Dems will dominate West CA.
Let each CA state work out its own budget priorities and government services.
Now drawing the lines will be tricky, but not fundamentally different than the gerrymandered districts that exist. Fundamentally East CA gets the central valley and everything east of wherever the red/blue line is in LA. San Diego and Orange Co. may be tricker, but the election results point the way.
A smart split would allow counties to change states if they passed a change resolution in, say, three elections in a row.
I think the GOP wouldn't like what kind of government they got with their tax attitudes today, but they haven't had to live with those policies, so they can be as irresponsible as the Federal House of Representative minority without worrying about roving bandos and impassible roads.
I think the history in California is rather different than what you say.
The main issue behind the approval of Prop 13 was not state spending, but the way that accelerating property values in the 1970s were producing higher and higher tax bills. See this: Proposition 13: Love it or Hate it, its Roots Go Deep
Now the problem of higher tax bills on residential property was quite real for seniors on fixed income, but the problem could have been addressed in other ways, as it is in many states, by providing exemptions and reduced taxation for seniors, the disabled, people on fixed income, etc.
Instead, the issue was ideologized by Howard Jarvis and became an anti-tax crusade, and Prop 13 was the result.
Prop 13, for any who don't know, pegs assessed value of residential real estate to its purcahse price, with a max 2% annual increase, and possibilty to petition a temporary lowering of assessment in an RE downturn. Prop 13 also requires a 2/3 vote on state budgets and tax increases.
What were the results of Prop 13? Well, it jazzed up property values - bubblicious, anyone? And it gutted the government's ability to budget.
One result of that is the ballooning deficits we see, which are far far bigger now than in the days before Prop 13.
Barley writes:
"and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing"
LOL! What a dumb thing to say
Maybe. Denver to Telluride is 365 miles. By 'day skiing,' I meant get up, drive, ski, drive home. I always was a Loveland or Winter Park kid, and I lived in Englewood. Bought my ticket at King Soopers, so eat shit and die, Barley. I'm a local.
Crested Butte is the locals' Telluride. Skied Breck for a great week in January. Going to Alyeska this weekend. Then I'm stuck with Killington in the spring. Beats owning a car or house.
ATLANTA The Georgia Department of Labor announced that 120,139 laid-off workers filed first-time claims for state unemployment insurance benefits in January, an increase of 80.7 percent from January 2008.
"We are witnessing the emergence of a 'Darwinian' job market," said State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. "The growing number of layoffs has created a surplus of jobseekers who are talented, experienced, educated and well-trained"
The metropolitan areas with the highest percentage of increase in claims are Dalton, up 164.7 percent; Brunswick, up 163.7 percent; and Rome, up 153.4 percent.
Hate to see anyone lose their job but FDIC must be working overtime in these locations...
FEBRUARY 15, 2009, 10:47 P.M. ET GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid
General Motors Corp., nearing a federally imposed deadline to present a restructuring plan, will offer the government two costly alternatives: commit billions more in bailout money to fund the company's operations, or provide financial backing as part of a bankruptcy filing, said people familiar with GM's thinking.
The competing choices, which highlight GM's rapidly deteriorating operations, present a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy.
I thought this was going to be some kind of dreadful romantic revival of an old Norse religion, but google tells me it's some kind of Norwegian pastry.
As for Vikings, Haldor Laxness' 'Happy Warriors' give a pretty good description of historic Vikings. Or some of the sagas. Not much romance there.
Counterpointer writes:
Broader issue therefore, is the higher-end RnR / entertainment industry skrood?
Big category, but I'd say overall "not yet." This will be the last good season for awhile. Skiing, golf, boating, tourism in general all about to go dark. Prices need to fall, and bargains need to be more obvious to draw the crowds back. When they don't come back in spite of lowered prices and deals, then the staffs get cut (this is where Hawaii is at right now). Then, services and maintenance fall off the cliff and people stop going altogether.
The competing choices, which highlight GM's rapidly deteriorating operations, present a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy.
Choice C: Bankruptcy without government aid. I doubt they can get debtor-in-possession financing, so the creditors get control.
Choice A and B both allow existing managment and board to control GM and that's the heart of the problem with the company.
C
I guess to answer that you need to figure out what are the components...
Disney - yes, seems to be having probs
The whole amusement park thing -
RV's - gone
Boating - gone
Snowmobiles - ?
Eddie Bauer - the whole look like your ready to wrestle a grizzly
Sporting goods?
Deflation/inflation argument has been resolved firmly in the deflation camp.
Isn't coke a rich man's(bankers) drug? Maybe the financial industry is showing some signs of strain. Contact FOX and let them know their might be a real economic crisis. Make sure they tell their republican front men to tone down the rhetoric an do some more coke. The shadow banking needs some more drug money to stay solvent.
Did I just solve the entire crisis? Contact Bill O'Reilly.
"a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy."
"Richard Garaventa, 36, a vice president of operations, faces charges of grand larceny and falsification of business records over a seven-year period,"
Well, in a way you prove my point. Prop 13 did nothing to limit spending and nothing to limit deficits.
In fact, Prop 13 itself immediately made the State budget grow.
Prop 13 shifted local spending to the state, because localities no longer had enough tax revenue from property taxes. The first year after Prop 13, State spending went up 1/3.
Yes, the budget increased a lot over the past few years, and over the past 40 years.
My argument, upthread, is that the most important effect of Prop 13 was that it broke the entire budgeting process and was a major step (not the only one) that turned the political institutions of California into worthless, deadlocked, irresponsible, and impotent hulks.
By the supra-majority requiremtn, Prop 13 makes governance impossible and replaces it with irresponsible deadlock.
That's not an argument about how big the budget should be, or how small, but about the inability of the state govt to do anything about it, which we see today in its most appalling form.
The rot is spread through all the institutions of the state. There have not been any talented leaders in the state two decades, if not longer.
"The alleged conduct by a former rogue employee is in direct violation of the firm's values and policies. We reported this matter to the authorities and have provided every assistance to their investigation," said spokeswoman Mary Claire Delaney."
Paramedics were called shortly after this statement due to several attendees laughing themselves into severe comas.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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lawyerliz writes:
Most bankers are far too stupid to know anything about financial engineering, whether it is good, bad or indifferent.
Most people just watch to see what over people are doing and if the other people make some money, why, they'll do it too.
lawyerliz | 02.16.09 - 5:21 pm | #
That is correct. Reminds me of my first development loan at the ripe old age of 26, followed by another and then another. Eventually my banker blew himself up because he didn't understand the land development bubble. My account was just one of many that blew up in his face. The people that fired him, knew even less.
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Even so, Friday's announcement that 522 first- and second-year teachers would be laid off next year from the Marion County Public Schools felt different.
BRISTOL - If the most pessimistic budget scenario emerges in the next couple of months, the school system will be forced to lay off about 10 percent of its workforce this summer including 71 teachers.
PROVIDENCE Nearly 600 teachers will receive preliminary layoff notices next week, although the vast majority will retain their jobs once the School Department works through a Byzantine seniority system known as bumping....the department has targeted 42 teaching positions at the middle schools; 21 at the elementary schools and 18 at the high schools.
sportsfan writes:
Continuing with the homeless hotel story, it's become worse over the past 20 months:
The [2007 San Bernardino County] study found at least 7,331 homeless persons [county-wide], a 39.1 percent increase from 2003 when 5,270 homeless persons were recorded.
Homeless on the rise in San Bernardino CountyI have to expect homelessness will continue to grow.
If j6p with a normal job and decent employment/stability background is going to have trouble in these dark times, those on the fringe of society are going to fall right off the edge.
## What were you thinking when you wrote this? I should report you. I think I shall. I just have to figure out to whom. volker the viking | 02.16.09 - 6:28 pm | #
Well, don't report me to the machinist whiskey drinkers, cigar smokers, or Alaskan barley wine brewers. Them's I'm afraid of...
but LOL... I'm not the one who's talking about Telluride, Aspen... and the other Colorado "Ski/Snow" resorts. We all know what happens there, and it doesn't stay in Vegas...
p.s. wish Hunter was around to drunkenly report how the sheep were fleeced, and grope reporters.
for what it's worth, a HUGE number of hotels have been built in NYC due to zoning regulations that allow a developer to build to the sky, but restrict all other types of buildings to 6 or 8 stories. The Lower East Side has a hotel on every block now; trump's soho building was built for exactly this reason (even though it's a condo in disguise), Sam Chang has gone nuts building everywhere - I'm not sure what the endgame was (NYC had too little supply? Cry poverty after they are built and convert to condos? got me) but I would guess a LOT of that money was spent in NYC...
upgrades?
Gee I remember when the Moneystore stopped lending and smaller lodging died in the early to mid 90s- de ja vue all over again.
Someday this war's gonna end...
sorry sir - we are fully booked
Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let...fifty cents.
No phone, no pool, no pets
I ain't got no cigarettes
Ah, but..two hours of pushin' broom
Buys an eight by twelve four-bit room
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
Third boxcar, midnight train
Destination...Bangor, Maine.
Old worn out suits and shoes,
I don't pay no union dues,
I smoke old stogies I have found
Short, but not too big around
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
I know every engineer on every train
All of their children, and all of their names
And every handout in every town
And every lock that ain't locked
When no one's around.
I sing,
Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let, fifty cents
No phone, no pool, no pets
I ain't got no cigarettes
Ah, but, two hours of pushin' broom
Buys an eight by twelve four-bit room
I'm a man of means by no means
King of the road.
Someday this war's gonna end...
That's why we need to keep building more supply.
Nostrovia,
Motel 6 ... or ... Motel Sicks ?
Yep. Every time this little bit of dishonest, fraudulent dealing occurs in some tiny little corner of the financial system, a small amount of trust is destroyed and ripples out far beyond that bank and the customer it is stealing from, magnified beyond recognition as it touches huge numbers of other people.
Banking’s Systemic Subprime Subterfuge « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
first
"However, with the hotel industry in recession, it appears likely that investment in lodging will decline sharply in 2009."
Chika-chika-chika-clink...
WEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Nostrovia,
The last 2 conferences I attended, their was availability when they were historically sold out. Discounts to the end, too.
b p so late that I had time to post twice including appropos song lyrics.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Just got to figure out how to convert the hotels to homeless shelters.
Welcome to the Hotel California. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
Paisano1- you might like Popeye's link from previous thread.
I just wonder what lodgeing returns would have looked like without gas / avgas prices coming off and a strengthening of the Euro against the dollar.
C
Are hourly Inn's gonna start giving free hours?
Nostrovia,
twofer coupon!
Any stats on how S. Florida is doing?
Anybody heard from FFDIC?
OT
Talkin about GM creditors taking a hit. What's that all about?
ot per previous threads//So am I to understand the tinfoil hat crowd now believes the banksters are crashing satellites and nuclear subs into each other to intimidate our leaders?
Starwood Hotels & Resorts
Feckless writes:
What do your insides tell you, Sebastian?
Feckless Ness | 02.16.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Yuck. Are you suggesting an entrails reading?
Yesterday you sent me back to bed with the pensions story.
Now I'm too queasy to contemplate dinner.
Please, Feckless, clean up your comments.
Cheers
Remarkable how closely the dropoff in HIP during the current recession mirrors that in 2000-2002. I believe we never really exited that recession, only papered it over with cheap mortgages.
I would think that the fancy new computer could supply all your needs, Misean.
I don't know what any of that stuff means even.
"So am I to understand the tinfoil hat crowd now believes the banksters are crashing satellites and nuclear subs into each other to intimidate our leaders?"
Ppif! DUUUUUUH!
Nostrovia,
I'm intimidated and I have bought a chin strap for my hat.
2009
—
The American, A Magazine of Ideas
"This has led to the spread of pseudo-objectivity: the search for standardized measures of achievement across large and disparate organizations. Its implicit premises were these: that information which is numerically measurable is the only sort of knowledge necessary; that numerical data can substitute for other forms of inquiry; and that numerical acumen can substitute for practical knowledge about the underlying assets and services.
A good deal of our current economic travails can be traced to this increasing valuation of purportedly objective criteria, so denoted because they can be expressed and manipulated in mathematical form by people who may be skilled at such manipulation but who lack concrete knowledge or experience of the things being made or traded. As Niall Ferguson has put it, Those whom the gods want to destroy they first teach math. The paradigmand the precursor of our current crisiswas the rise and fall of Long Term Capital Management, founded by two of the fathers of quantitative options financing, Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton. Knowing a great deal of math, but not very much history, they developed trading models that radically underestimated the risk entailed in their financial speculation, leading to a dramatic collapse of the company in the summer of 1998. But the phenomenon is more widespread. Attaching a number creates a belief that the information is more solid than is actually the case. That is what I mean by pseudo-objectivity. In each case, it is a response to what (to recoin a phrase) one might call alienation from the means of production, the attempt to substitute abstract and quantitative knowledge for concrete and qualitative knowledge."
There is a lot of really good stuff in this article. Again did the banks and investment firms know the financial engineering was flawed or not?
Just got to figure out how to convert the hotels to homeless shelters.
Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 5:08 pm | #
That's actually a good idea. If not homeless shelters, then how about cheap/short term housing?
I would think that some here would have changed into gold foil hats.
There is a lot of really good stuff in this article. Again did the banks and investment firms know the financial engineering was flawed or not?
lawn grass | 02.16.09 - 5:18 pm
I think the more obvious question is; Did they care?
I would think that some here would have changed into gold foil hats.
lawyerliz | 02.16.09 - 5:18 pm | #
Nah, posters here are too cheap for that.
lawyerliz, let's don't go down the "gold" road this evening...
Hotels and Motels are the pinnacle of discretionary shelter. If white picket fence SFRs are the bedrock thten hotels are the utmost stone of the Tower of Babel just on top of exotic properties like timeshares and condotels. God punishes hubris. The market does worse.
ll,
"I would think that the fancy new computer could supply all your needs, Misean."
With the fans off it makes a nice squirrel roaster.
Nostrovia,
Most bankers are far too stupid to know anything about financial engineering, whether it is good, bad or indifferent.
Most people just watch to see what over people are doing and if the other people make some money, why, they'll do it too.
Actually, come to think of it, I know a town in our state that does use a motel as subsidized housing. Maybe it's already common practice.
I do know somebody who still makes money on a room she bought at a condo hotel. She bought years ago for not much and I think has pulled money out of her own pocket maybe 2ce in the last 7-8 years.
Just when it became clear to pretty much everybody that merger of big banks to create even bigger banks is a BAD idea, France still wants to give it another try... I was hoping that at least there was some educational value from such recent US deals as WFC-Wachovia, BofA-Merryll/Countrywide
France May Take 20% Stake in Caisse dEpargne, Banque Populaire
Bloomberg
The French government may acquire about 20 percent of the combined Groupe Banque Populaire and Groupe Caisse dEpargne, the customer-owned banks in talks to merge, said three people with knowledge of the situation.
A state capital injection would help shore up Natixis SA, the unprofitable investment bank controlled by Caisse dEpargne and Banque Populaire, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential.
Maybe it's already common practice.
It's actually pretty common, especially in the seedier parts of town, usually with independent proprietors that don't care about the reputational effects.
On the gutting of Glass-Steagell:
Sure, Clinton had a hand in it.
The right historical way to look at this is to see it as part of the Reagan Revolution and its legacy. Reaganism was triumphant not so much because Reagan served two terms and was popular, but because his administration and leadership succeeded in restructuring the terms of debate for 28 years.
Reagan was part of that. Clinton came along in the middle, within the context of that restructured debate on issues. And then George W layed an enormous role by sitting by fecklessly (sorry Ness, nothing personal) while things visibly unravelled.
But the point is precisely not to focus so completely on the individuals (important though they may be) and, instead, to track the larger shifts in the terms of the discussion.
Bringing things up to the present, that is precisely what is so stunning about the past couple of weeks: There has already been a revolution in the terms of the discussion.
Just ask Sens Richard Shelby and Lindsey Graham.
MOAR!
30 story hotel foundation just about completed across the street from me on 8th ave in Manhattan. Keep digging boys!
Apparently, not only is he not a doctor, but he didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
but where are the deals?
i've yet to see signs of panic.
Financial innovation is what got us into this mess and it's whats gonna get us out. Or not. Maybe innovation is not all it was cracked up to be.
Most people just watch to see what over people are doing and if the other people make some money, why, they'll do it too
essence of sheepleness
/
daily bail(Unrated) writes:
\tbut where are the deals?
i've yet to see signs of panic.
## Idiocracy rules!
is the united states bankrupt?
from the St. Louis Fed
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf
and there's this one for the gold bugs about US debt default and dollar collapse.
404 Not Found collapse.php
midas letter
OT (California), but....
Gotta love this typo:
âIt is a dramatic time," said Darrell Steinberg, the State Senate's president pro tempore. âThe solvency of the state is on the line. It is really quite a system where the fat of the state rests upon the shoulders of a couple of members of a minority party. The system frankly needs to be changed."
NY Times
"I feel that..like I am repeating myself, getting bored with my self..." says Meredith Whitney.
At video-minute 17:45, she says that banks with less "junk in the trunk" will fair better..." and that "banks are still structured along the "living la vida loca" model and that they need to show us something new, before private capital will return."
YouTube - Exclusive Interview With Meredith Whitney - Bloomberg
.
India
India defence budget up 24%
Pakistan
Pakistan-Taliban deal: Islamic law for peace in Swat Valley | csmonitor.com
Do you want to play a game?
.
Just got to figure out how to convert the hotels to homeless shelters.
Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 5:08 pm | #
I don't know whether that was a serious comment or ironic humor, but late last year San Bernardino County (CA) was looking for a hotel, preferably 160 rooms, to be used for that purpose. There was a 100 unit building in preforeclosure at the time, but I don't know if they ever closed on a property.
And the Ritz in Vail is shutting down for a month because of market conditions. Most staff will be laid off for a month.
o/t:
"Bush Survivor" = optimistic
Kansas may delay tax refunds, paychecks | Archived Stories | Wichita Eagle
this is Kansas, Dorothy.
Be It Resolved: The Days of $500k Economists Are Over
Paul Kedrosky: Be It Resolved: The Days of $500k Economists Are Over
I agree...shitcan these overpaid shills just like their way way overpaid banking assclown brethren.
Give them a shovel and put them to work.
They will be more productive !
I don't know if they ever closed on a property.
## They may not have to, just get an operating agreement.
Citizen AllenM - thx for that; now that bloody song is going to ring in my head all night!
the attempt to substitute abstract and quantitative knowledge for concrete and qualitative knowledge."
lawn grass | 02.16.09 - 5:18 pm | #
The best backgammon players in the world can still beat the most powerful programs, even though the bots play perfectly after contact. The humans use some sophisticated math*, but the bots look at trillions of results 3 rolls ahead, and use "intelligent" rules culled from trillions of previously rolled out games. They crunch away at the numbers, but their human master thinks.
*e.g., match equity table
Suppose the trailer is T-away, and that the difference between the two scores is D. Then the leader's equity in percent is approximately
(85 D)
50 + ------- .(T + 6)
For example, the equity at 3-away, 8-away is
50 + (5 x 85) / (8 + 6)= 50 + 425 / 14
= 80%
from Kit Woolsey's "How to play tournament backgammon"
daily bail(Unrated) writes:
but where are the deals?
i've yet to see signs of panic.
True that. I'm waiting for better rates for our usual family spring break trip. Something modest, and in the U.S. Usually I tie it to a professional conference, but those meetings are in the Aloha state year. No way. The rates over there haven't budged, and the airfare is >1K. Was thinking Phoenix, San Antonio or even D.C. (anonymous jr.'s are the right age).
Am reading stories in the NYT/WSJ about how many professional conferences have been outright cancelled at the luxo places, yet when I call direct, it's still 2006. In the end, I can afford to go where I want, but I am interested to see which of these places is hungry and wants my business.
It's hungry where I live in flyover country. Restaurants, retail and lodging are dying. I don't see that changing soon either.
Maybe I'll stay home and watch the revolution in HD. I can TiVO the action stuff..
Dustin Hoffman in "The Sphere:"
"It is not good that it is happy...what happens when it (Obama) gets angry?"
Samuel Jackson: "...What, are you afraid of snakes..!?"
Roger Miller, my 2nd concert. I was 7 or 8 maybe.
Fairfax County uses old motels to put up families until there is an opening in a shelter.
I was just checking house rentals at the beach. Not going down. All those 3 bedroom beach houses were replaced 8 bedroom monstrosities that want 4k or more per week. Got to make that mortgage
It's actually pretty common, especially in the seedier parts of town
Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 5:23 pm | #
Okay, I see it was a serious comment. In the San Bernardino County case, they were looking for a unit for the High Desert and the emphasis was on homeless youth (18-24) which was State funded through a federal grant. They were hoping for the whole package, i.e., a proprietor who met State guidelines.
Maybe I'll stay home and watch the revolution in HD. I can TiVO the action stuff..
anonymous | 02.16.09 - 5:45 pm |
I think the CR commentariat started the "got popcorn" thing in 2006
.
The economic collapse has occurred. The next phase is political collpase.
I suggest hiring crack dealers as bank and auto executives. They might do a better job than the Detroit crew.
Good riddance to Chrysle AND GM.
Yours In Socialism,
Kilgore Trout
Comrade Kilgore Trout writes:
The economic collapse has occurred. The next phase is political collpase.
I was hoping it would be more exciting than it's been thus far...
Barley,
Oh yeah...but I stupidly youtube'd it.
Thought I'd share...
YouTube - Roger Miller - King of the Road
Nostrovia,
ova:
you were looking at Sullivan's Island and Isle of Palms, right? Charleston is still in a state of denial, as to the crash. Not unexpectedly, as SC is usually 1-2 years behind national trends.
Barley writes:
And the Ritz in Vail is shutting down for a month because of market conditions. Most staff will be laid off for a month.
Why? Isn't this ski season?
Continuing with the homeless hotel story, it's become worse over the past 20 months:
The [2007 San Bernardino County] study found at least 7,331 homeless persons [county-wide], a 39.1 percent increase from 2003 when 5,270 homeless persons were recorded.
Homeless on the rise in San Bernardino CountyI have to expect homelessness will continue to grow. Meanwhile, REO houses remain vacant.
Helluva system we've got.
I was hoping it would be more exciting than it's been thus far...
Comrade Kristina
be careful what you wish for
.
Basel Too
Good memory. We were at the end of Sullivans last year. Its were I realized shipping was dropping, a lot.
Was more than the usual For Sale signs then.
C&C - They are closing mid Aprilish, right after prime season. They usually stay open but this year bookings are way down so they are going to close it up for a month. I have heard that they are currently running 70% occupancy.
With the fans off it makes a nice squirrel roaster.
It's about time Ronco came out with a new product.
Can Ronco solve the homeless people problem?
The NYT report on California matches my analysis of the structural roots of California's inability to deal with its budget problem:
California Struggles to Close a Projected $41 Billion Deficit
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LinkedinDiggFacebookMixxMy SpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalinkBy JENNIFER STEINHAUER
Published: February 16, 2009
LOS ANGELES The state of California its deficits ballooning, its lawmakers intransigent and its governor apparently free of allies or influence appears headed off the fiscal rails.
Since the fall, when lawmakers began trying to attack the gaps in the $143 billion budget that their earlier plan had not addressed, the state has fallen into deeper financial straits, with more bad news coming daily from Sacramento. The state, nearly out of cash, has laid off scores of workers and put hundreds more on unpaid furloughs. It has stopped paying counties and issuing income tax refunds and halted thousands of infrastructure projects.
After negotiating nonstop from Saturday afternoon until late Sunday night on a series of budget bills that would have closed a projected $41 billion deficit, state lawmakers failed to get enough votes to close the deal and adjourned. They returned to the capital late Monday morning only to adjourn until the afternoon, though it was far from clear whether they would be able to reach a deal.
California has also lost access to much of the credit markets, nearly unheard of among state municipal bond issuers. Recently, Standard & Poors downgraded the states bond rating to the lowest in the nation.
No other state is in the kind of crisis that California is in, said Iris J. Lav, the deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal research group in Washington. The roots of Californias inability to address its budget woes are statutory and political. The state, unlike most others, requires a two-thirds majority vote in the legislature to pass budgets and tax increases. And its process for creating voter initiatives hamstrings the budget process by directing money for some programs while depriving others of cash.
NY Times
I would only add, as I posted earlier, that the disease of gridlock from supra-majority requirements, term limits, and several more referenda on budgeting produces a virus that spreads throughout the political institutions of the state: no power, no responsibility, no development of leadership.
Comrade Kristina(Unrated) writes:
I was hoping it would be more exciting than it's been thus far...
## Not much of a movie in real time.
crispy,
"Why? Isn't this ski season?"
It's easier to cut back on skiing than railing...if you know what I mean...
YouTube - Duran Duran - White Lines (1995)
Nostrovia,
CONservatives always point to Ireland as a great example because of their low corporate tax rates...they might want to update their talking points:
Ireland default fears on the rise - MarketWatch
Fears that Ireland's banking woes will send the Emerald Isle the way of Iceland has sent the cost of insuring sovereign Irish debt against default to record levels
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
Comrade Misean is Dope - LOL!!
Uh. The Ronco post was me.
Okay, joe schmoe. Get ready to rummmmblllllle....
Barley,
"Can Ronco solve the homeless people problem?"
The five day SoylentGeenator?
Nostrovia,
Barley writes:
Can Ronco solve the homeless people problem
squirrel skin tent-stitcher
.
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
Terry | 02.16.09 - 6:05 pm | #
The Ritz will be fine. The overpriced restaurants, ersatz nightclubs, wine bars, and coffee houses in Vail Village are going to be T.U. before the flowers bloom.
And you know what, that's fine. Locals don't ski there anyway. Can't afford to live there either.
Aspen is the biggest bubble of all of the ski resorts...why do they need 8+condo towers in Snow mass??
It is so bad that the Ritz Carlton in Vail Colorado has announced that it will be closing for a month at the end of the ski season and lay amost everyone off - they promised to rehire everyone after the one month closure.
Terry | 02.16.09 - 6:05 pm |
Anybody know how Whistler/Blackcomb is doing? Or driven Sea to Sky? Is that gonna get done in time before the Vancouver Olympics debacle.
Boulder Bob,
"Locals don't ski there anyway."
Nope, they just work there. They ski elsewhere. That shouldn't be much of a problem.
Nostrovia,
misean>It's easier to cut back on skiing than railing...if you know what I mean...
YouTube - E
perfect antidote to depressing times...maybe not
.
Let's see:
too many homeless.
too many houses.
hmmmm
hmmmm
hmmmmm
Stabilize house prices!
Or, I suppose we could hire the homeless to bulldoze the "excess" houses.
Joe Schmoe wrote:
"I would only add, as I posted earlier, that the disease of gridlock from supra-majority requirements, term limits, and several more referenda on budgeting produces a virus that spreads throughout the political institutions of the state: no power, no responsibility, no development of leadership."
You are describing the symptoms, not the disease. All of those requirements, limits, and referenda were put in place because California kept spinning out of control with massive overspending and misplaced priorities. Those symptoms did not come out of a vacuum, but were imposed by the voters of the state who tried over and over again to for the politicians to behave responsibly. I'm not arguing that all of those restrictions and forced allocations were good ideas or the best way to go, but they were the best that the voters could do at the time they were implemented, because they were all that could be put on offer through the initiative/referendum system.
I think you're confusing cause and effect. California had irresponsible government before those changes, and it still does. Maybe it always will, unless someone comes up with a way to fix it. But it's not as easy as undoing the measures that were put in place to curb previous problems.
All this talk about California, the 8th largest economy in the world....
makes Eastern Euroipe's problems seem less important. Maybe it's just me.
I'm sorry, but when she grow up and has a criminal bankster in her sites, there will be blood, lots of blood...
YouTube - I'm not dead! Well, maybe a little bit...
She is reviewing games like Resident Evil, now, what will she focus on next...what will be her tolerance for error, then? Already, it seems more intolerant that our recent crowd....
LET THE BODIES HIT THE FLOOR!
Aspen is the biggest bubble of all of the ski resorts...why do they need 8+condo towers in Snow mass??
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 6:10 pm | #
C/C : I might throw Telluride on that list too. Really hard to get there, and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing. It's secluded, and highly dependent upon out-state high rollers to keep the con alive. Plus, the locals have built up a militant dislike for tourists that is gonna come to a head soon for "ruining their town."
Actually, come to think of it, that goes double for Aspen. Hunter Thompson would be writing great (but probably incoherent) stuff about if he were still around.
anonymous Canuck | 02.16.09 - 6:11 pm | #
I'm getting weekly emails offering stay 2 nights and get one night free. Also offering 2 ski lift tickets and a king size bed suite for $130 CAD. Last year that was $300-$400 same deal.
I'd say they are hurting.
fscking Haloscan. Sorry about the double post.
volker the viking writes:
All this talk about California, the 8th largest economy in the world....
makes Eastern Euroipe's problems seem less important. Maybe it's just me.
volker the viking | 02.16.09 - 6:13 pm | #
Somebody ( maybe it was me ) said the other night that the collapse was going to be a domino effect after a sovereign default. The prediction was Ireland, or U.K., then everybody. I would say California belongs on that list too, for sheer size. The fed would bail out the Golden State (too big to yadda yadda yadda), but I'm not sure the results would be pretty.
Spend 'em while ya got 'em.
If Ireland defaults how can the UK not follow?
If California defaults how can the US not follow?
See what I did there?
Hotels and Motels are the pinnacle of discretionary shelter. If white picket fence SFRs are the bedrock thten hotels are the utmost stone of the Tower of Babel just on top of exotic properties like timeshares and condotels. God punishes hubris. The market does worse.
| \t02.16.09 - 5:21 pm | #
\t Rob Dawg | \t \t \tHomepage
Rob, some kind of traveler's shelter has been documented throughout history. It seems to fulfil SOME essential niche. Well, maybe not the Greeks, but the Romans certainly had inns, and they were an essential part of the medieval landscape as well. I would place them somewhere below timeshares!
We went to Breckonridge. It was a headache and wind sucking experience.
Sea level is where humans were designed to live.
"I was hoping it would be more exciting than it's been thus far..."
Some excitements are much better read about or watched in a photo play than lived through.
Actually California was a reasonably well run state when Goodwin (Goody) Knight was Governor.Since then...
"and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing"
LOL! What a dumb thing to say.
btw, I love Telluride. The air is a bit thin and the chairs old. But nobody has their noses pointed up, the food places are excellent, and cutzy little trendoids are comletley shunned.
Re Whistler - I was there a few weeks ago. Typical cement snow, but lotsa sun!
Italy! Not Ireland. Then goes Austria. Germany freaks. Ireland falls and no ones arms are there to reach out.
perfect antidote to depressing times...maybe not
Have a Great Depression! | 02.16.09 - 6:11 pm | #
Hey... it's cheaper than drowning your sorrows in beer ;^)
Deflation everywhere...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/4602051/Cocaine-cheaper-than-lager-and-wine-as-drug-price-falls-by-half.html
@ nova - luv Breck. If you had problems there forget about Telluride
The world is interconnected. Some journalist has been rejoicing over it for the past few years. The consequences are beginning to hit home.
We went to Breckonridge. It was a headache and wind sucking experience.
Sea level is where humans were designed to live.
nova | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 6:19 pm | #
Was in Breckenridge (and Frisco) for a few days over the summer. Happened to visit a cemetary - don't ask - and noticed something. Very few "old" people buried there. Top age I saw was something like 65. I think the altitude has a self-selecting effect there...becomes too hard to move air, and those with COPD are out the door. They go down to the prarie to die.
My friend Ted Conover wrote an excellent book about Aspen: Whiteout: Lost in Aspen He grew up in Denver and was a ski instructor
His other books are about illegal immigrants, hobos riding the rails, and Sing Sing.
He rode the rails for a year, and in fact became a corrections officer to investigate the system.
I'm hoping his next project will involve becoming a banker.
Some journalist has been rejoicing over it for the past few years.
Please don't let it be Tom Friedman.
Please don't let it be Tom Friedman.
On the gutting of Glass-Steagell:
Sure, Clinton had a hand in it.
The right historical way to look at this is to see it as part of the Reagan Revolution and its legacy. Reaganism was triumphant not so much because Reagan served two terms and was popular, but because his administration and leadership succeeded in restructuring the terms of debate for 28 years.
Reagan was part of that. Clinton came along in the middle, within the context of that restructured debate on issues. And then George W layed an enormous role by sitting by fecklessly (sorry Ness, nothing personal) while things visibly unravelled.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 5:24 pm | #
George W. Bush looked to history to raise his standing among presidents. What he ignored was the fact presidential statures can decline as well as rise. Reagan, I would say, is one whose ranking is going to sink a great deal. Two very critical books came out very recently that explore details of the "Reagan revolution" and we can expect more of those as the consequences of Reagan's presidency manifest themselves.
Telegraph | Error 404 | Sorry, the page you have requested is not available Cocaine-cheaper-than-lager-and-wine-as-drug-price- falls-by-half.html
Comrade joeblo | 02.16.09 - 6:23 pm |
I wish I hadn't seen that--LOL
.
Volker? do you do kringla?
Comrade joeblo(Unrated) writes:
Hey... it's cheaper than drowning your sorrows in beer ;^)
## What were you thinking when you wrote this? I should report you. I think I shall. I just have to figure out to whom.
crispy&cole writes:
Aspen is the biggest bubble of all of the ski resorts...why do they need 8+condo towers in Snow mass??
I was in Aspen a few weeks ago. Did not stand in a lift line once.
There is an answer to CA's problems. The state consists of two ideological enemies with nearly 100% opposite views. They will not reconcile.
Break up the state!
Coasts and Costal cities in one state (West CA) and Central/East in another state (East CA). The GOP will dominate East CA, and the Dems will dominate West CA.
Let each CA state work out its own budget priorities and government services.
Now drawing the lines will be tricky, but not fundamentally different than the gerrymandered districts that exist. Fundamentally East CA gets the central valley and everything east of wherever the red/blue line is in LA. San Diego and Orange Co. may be tricker, but the election results point the way.
A smart split would allow counties to change states if they passed a change resolution in, say, three elections in a row.
I think the GOP wouldn't like what kind of government they got with their tax attitudes today, but they haven't had to live with those policies, so they can be as irresponsible as the Federal House of Representative minority without worrying about roving bandos and impassible roads.
"Some journalist has been rejoicing over it for the past few years.
Please don't let it be Tom Friedman.
Please don't let it be Tom Friedman."
I haven't actually read his books, only some of the jacket copy.
SM Landlord
I think the history in California is rather different than what you say.
The main issue behind the approval of Prop 13 was not state spending, but the way that accelerating property values in the 1970s were producing higher and higher tax bills. See this: Proposition 13: Love it or Hate it, its Roots Go Deep
Now the problem of higher tax bills on residential property was quite real for seniors on fixed income, but the problem could have been addressed in other ways, as it is in many states, by providing exemptions and reduced taxation for seniors, the disabled, people on fixed income, etc.
Instead, the issue was ideologized by Howard Jarvis and became an anti-tax crusade, and Prop 13 was the result.
Prop 13, for any who don't know, pegs assessed value of residential real estate to its purcahse price, with a max 2% annual increase, and possibilty to petition a temporary lowering of assessment in an RE downturn. Prop 13 also requires a 2/3 vote on state budgets and tax increases.
What were the results of Prop 13? Well, it jazzed up property values - bubblicious, anyone? And it gutted the government's ability to budget.
One result of that is the ballooning deficits we see, which are far far bigger now than in the days before Prop 13.
Barley writes:
"and almost nobody in the Denver/metro area goes there for day skiing"
LOL! What a dumb thing to say
Maybe. Denver to Telluride is 365 miles. By 'day skiing,' I meant get up, drive, ski, drive home. I always was a Loveland or Winter Park kid, and I lived in Englewood. Bought my ticket at King Soopers, so eat shit and die, Barley. I'm a local.
We race in Denver (5860 ft)and the corrected air can be over 10,000 ft. Imagine on top of a mountain.
graingod(Unrated) writes:
\tVolker? do you do kringla?
## I prolly would if I knew what it was.
Did not stand in a lift line once.
PSgirl
How much are the lift tickets this year?
(no lines worth the time)
Crested Butte is the locals' Telluride. Skied Breck for a great week in January. Going to Alyeska this weekend. Then I'm stuck with Killington in the spring. Beats owning a car or house.
Then you are not a real Viking are you
I'm a local.
anonymous
That why it is a dumb thing to say...its as f+++++g long drive and the road serving that laast box canyon is hell!
I can smell your local no need to shout it out.
ATLANTA The Georgia Department of Labor announced that 120,139 laid-off workers filed first-time claims for state unemployment insurance benefits in January, an increase of 80.7 percent from January 2008.
"We are witnessing the emergence of a 'Darwinian' job market," said State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. "The growing number of layoffs has created a surplus of jobseekers who are talented, experienced, educated and well-trained"
The metropolitan areas with the highest percentage of increase in claims are Dalton, up 164.7 percent; Brunswick, up 163.7 percent; and Rome, up 153.4 percent.
Hate to see anyone lose their job but FDIC must be working overtime in these locations...
Broader issue therefore, is the higher-end RnR / entertainment industry skrood?
C
FEBRUARY 15, 2009, 10:47 P.M. ET
GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid
General Motors Corp., nearing a federally imposed deadline to present a restructuring plan, will offer the government two costly alternatives: commit billions more in bailout money to fund the company's operations, or provide financial backing as part of a bankruptcy filing, said people familiar with GM's thinking.
The competing choices, which highlight GM's rapidly deteriorating operations, present a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy.
GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid - WSJ.com
GM to Offer Two Choices: Bankruptcy or More Aid
Nationalize GM!
graingod(Unrated) writes:
\tThen you are not a real Viking are you
## Ya got me. Ya got the Volker.
"Volker? do you do kringla?"
I thought this was going to be some kind of dreadful romantic revival of an old Norse religion, but google tells me it's some kind of Norwegian pastry.
As for Vikings, Haldor Laxness' 'Happy Warriors' give a pretty good description of historic Vikings. Or some of the sagas. Not much romance there.
Different anonymous here than local anonymous.
Counterpointer writes:
Broader issue therefore, is the higher-end RnR / entertainment industry skrood?
Big category, but I'd say overall "not yet." This will be the last good season for awhile. Skiing, golf, boating, tourism in general all about to go dark. Prices need to fall, and bargains need to be more obvious to draw the crowds back. When they don't come back in spite of lowered prices and deals, then the staffs get cut (this is where Hawaii is at right now). Then, services and maintenance fall off the cliff and people stop going altogether.
I give it 18 months, tops.
Barley writes:
How much are the lift tickets this year?
(no lines worth the time)
Not sure--we went as a part of a group at a legal seminar and I never saw the bill. Stayed at the St. Regis for $400 per night (reg $1200)
I do know we got the tickets here:
Aspen Snowmass Ski Vacations Colorado Skiing Deals Hotels Lodging
The competing choices, which highlight GM's rapidly deteriorating operations, present a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy.
Choice C: Bankruptcy without government aid. I doubt they can get debtor-in-possession financing, so the creditors get control.
Choice A and B both allow existing managment and board to control GM and that's the heart of the problem with the company.
Call their bluff! (and raise them a bankruptcy).
C
I guess to answer that you need to figure out what are the components...
Disney - yes, seems to be having probs
The whole amusement park thing -
RV's - gone
Boating - gone
Snowmobiles - ?
Eddie Bauer - the whole look like your ready to wrestle a grizzly
Sporting goods?
Volker is light on thinking.
Anyone heard from FFDIC?
A line of coke cheaper then a pint?
Deflation/inflation argument has been resolved firmly in the deflation camp.
Isn't coke a rich man's(bankers) drug? Maybe the financial industry is showing some signs of strain. Contact FOX and let them know their might be a real economic crisis. Make sure they tell their republican front men to tone down the rhetoric an do some more coke. The shadow banking needs some more drug money to stay solvent.
Did I just solve the entire crisis? Contact Bill O'Reilly.
"a dilemma for Congress and the Obama administration. If they refuse to provide additional aid to GM on top of the $13.4 billion already committed they risk seeing an industrial icon fall into bankruptcy."
repost pls. I missed the dilemma part.
"the whole look like your ready to wrestle a grizzly"
lol, nova
Kringla, lefsa , all good, so much for Norse food,
"...the whole look like your ready to wrestle a grizzly"
Humans look very puny when standing next to a grizzly. Sort of like most humans when standing next to the economic system.
1 currency almost [yogi](Unrated) writes:
\tVolker is light on thinking.
## This is gang up on Volker day
This is why coke is so cheap in the UK, more supply lines, but one less now:
"Fifteen airline flight crew members have been arrested after cocaine was found in baggage - the second such incident in a month"
Airline Flight Crew Members Arrested After Drug Find: Cocaine Found In South African Airways Baggage | UK News | Sky News
Commentary on the GM bailout that deserves a repeat:
http://v.wordpress.com/wp-content/plugins/video/flvplayer.swf?guid=LbA1OFar
This is gang up on Volker day
Say hi to the cat
What were the results of Prop 13? Well, it jazzed up property values - bubblicious, anyone? And it gutted the government's ability to budget.
One result of that is the ballooning deficits we see, which are far far bigger now than in the days before Prop 13.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 6:28 pm | #
Joe, that's a bit of an overstatement.
Ca budget exp have doubled in the last 5 yrs I believe. Population? No
If you can't fund your expenses...
Economies of scale..
Statewide props.
it is but those residuals from Capitol One keep him in kringlas
"Worry is the interest paid by those who borrow trouble".
future ny post: Cocaine Bank Train Sails off Rails
California revenue shortfall chart porn:
January 2009 California State Budget Data
$4.1 billion below last year ytd.
There is plenty of demand for hotels. But not at $400/night....
At $150 then you have a deal...But, they won't lower their prices...
Strange strange industry...
I want my bonus:
"Richard Garaventa, 36, a vice president of operations, faces charges of grand larceny and falsification of business records over a seven-year period,"
Morgan Stanley VP, Richard Garaventa, arrested for stealing $2.3M from the company
Shares in Oz Minerals Ltd , the world's second-largest zinc miner, jumped 29 percent on Tuesday after it agreed to a $1.7 billion takeover bid from Chinese state-owned trading group Minmetals.
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Sacking 'em up.
nova(Unrated) writes:
Say hi to the cat
## Gotta keep the cat away from the computer.
Evelyn Woods
Well, in a way you prove my point. Prop 13 did nothing to limit spending and nothing to limit deficits.
In fact, Prop 13 itself immediately made the State budget grow.
Prop 13 shifted local spending to the state, because localities no longer had enough tax revenue from property taxes. The first year after Prop 13, State spending went up 1/3.
Yes, the budget increased a lot over the past few years, and over the past 40 years.
My argument, upthread, is that the most important effect of Prop 13 was that it broke the entire budgeting process and was a major step (not the only one) that turned the political institutions of California into worthless, deadlocked, irresponsible, and impotent hulks.
By the supra-majority requiremtn, Prop 13 makes governance impossible and replaces it with irresponsible deadlock.
That's not an argument about how big the budget should be, or how small, but about the inability of the state govt to do anything about it, which we see today in its most appalling form.
The rot is spread through all the institutions of the state. There have not been any talented leaders in the state two decades, if not longer.
Sacking 'em up.
Anonymous | 02.16.09 - 6:54 pm |
Thats precisly why plastics are such a great deal! Lets see, mmm,
NCX: Summary for - Yahoo! Canada Finance - Share Prices, Charts, News and more
Barley,
"The alleged conduct by a former rogue employee is in direct violation of the firm's values and policies. We reported this matter to the authorities and have provided every assistance to their investigation," said spokeswoman Mary Claire Delaney."
Paramedics were called shortly after this statement due to several attendees laughing themselves into severe comas.
Nostrovia,
Interesting article, don't know how accurate it is:
Trading the Crude Oil Contango with Two ETFs
Trading the Crude Oil Contango with Two ETFs -- Seeking Alpha
Max nice porn...CA seems to be missing the targets
(sarcasim off)
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
wonder if they got a call, do you think they will bother to dispatch a vehicle or would they say eat sh** and die
New Thread: State Budgets: No Progress in California, Kansas Suspends Income Tax Refunds ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Barley,
I'm assuming it was at a press conference...
Eh...what's the diff.
ROFL!
Nostrovia,
PSgirl - Also HOU.TO but some Fx risk
lawyerliz writes:
Most bankers are far too stupid to know anything about financial engineering, whether it is good, bad or indifferent.
Most people just watch to see what over people are doing and if the other people make some money, why, they'll do it too.
lawyerliz | 02.16.09 - 5:21 pm | #
That is correct. Reminds me of my first development loan at the ripe old age of 26, followed by another and then another. Eventually my banker blew himself up because he didn't understand the land development bubble. My account was just one of many that blew up in his face. The people that fired him, knew even less.
The rash spreads:
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Even so, Friday's announcement that 522 first- and second-year teachers would be laid off next year from the Marion County Public Schools felt different.
BRISTOL - If the most pessimistic budget scenario emerges in the next couple of months, the school system will be forced to lay off about 10 percent of its workforce this summer including 71 teachers.
PROVIDENCE Nearly 600 teachers will receive preliminary layoff notices next week, although the vast majority will retain their jobs once the School Department works through a Byzantine seniority system known as bumping....the department has targeted 42 teaching positions at the middle schools; 21 at the elementary schools and 18 at the high schools.
The gag I used to hear back home was "coke is god's way of telling you that you have too much money..."
I guess that might need some recalibration.
Is this behind the aggro in Mex? Lower yeilds, increasing competition over margin and risk?
C
PS - nova, thanks for the list. Where would woodchippers come out? Newly useful household industrial implement or frivloity?
Getting back to this:
sportsfan writes:
Continuing with the homeless hotel story, it's become worse over the past 20 months:
The [2007 San Bernardino County] study found at least 7,331 homeless persons [county-wide], a 39.1 percent increase from 2003 when 5,270 homeless persons were recorded.
Homeless on the rise in San Bernardino CountyI have to expect homelessness will continue to grow.
If j6p with a normal job and decent employment/stability background is going to have trouble in these dark times, those on the fringe of society are going to fall right off the edge.
Expect homelessness to rise dramatically.
## What were you thinking when you wrote this? I should report you. I think I shall. I just have to figure out to whom.
volker the viking | 02.16.09 - 6:28 pm | #
Well, don't report me to the machinist whiskey drinkers, cigar smokers, or Alaskan barley wine brewers.
Them's I'm afraid of...
but LOL... I'm not the one who's talking about Telluride, Aspen... and the other Colorado "Ski/Snow" resorts.
We all know what happens there, and it doesn't stay in Vegas...
p.s. wish Hunter was around to drunkenly report how the sheep were fleeced, and grope reporters.
for what it's worth, a HUGE number of hotels have been built in NYC due to zoning regulations that allow a developer to build to the sky, but restrict all other types of buildings to 6 or 8 stories. The Lower East Side has a hotel on every block now; trump's soho building was built for exactly this reason (even though it's a condo in disguise), Sam Chang has gone nuts building everywhere - I'm not sure what the endgame was (NYC had too little supply? Cry poverty after they are built and convert to condos? got me) but I would guess a LOT of that money was spent in NYC...