Both targets and y-o-y change are negative. The 2008-2009 Budget Act estimates were widely regarded as a joke when they were released; by law, Cali must pass a balanced budget every year, and they're just used to perpetuate the farce. (They actually predicted an increase in revenue for this year!) What's scary is the real y-o-y decline. No state agency, ever, plans on spending cuts. Ever. At the rate tax revenue in Cali is declining, the operable $40 billion deficit by June 2010 predicted by the governator is laughable. They can't raise taxes fast enough to fix this.
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Even so, Friday's announcement that 522 first- and second-year teachers would be laid off next year from the Marion County Public Schools felt different.
BRISTOL - If the most pessimistic budget scenario emerges in the next couple of months, the school system will be forced to lay off about 10 percent of its workforce this summer including 71 teachers.
PROVIDENCE Nearly 600 teachers will receive preliminary layoff notices next week, although the vast majority will retain their jobs once the School Department works through a Byzantine seniority system known as bumping....the department has targeted 42 teaching positions at the middle schools; 21 at the elementary schools and 18 at the high schools.
Barley
Misean we're even on the keyboards "The alleged conduct by a former rogue employee is in direct violation of the firm's values and policies. We reported this matter to the authorities and have provided every assistance to their investigation," said spokeswoman Mary Claire Delaney."
Paramedics were called shortly after this statement due to several attendees laughing themselves into severe comas. Kumbaya, baby.
We're probably on the verge of a full-scale 1978 Prop 13-style tax revolt in CA and a few other states. Regardless of the appropriateness of the sentiment, the animus towards state and local taxes has been building, and may finally erupt given the larger economic atmosphere.
Also, this is another reason why the federal "stimulus" will fail. State recipients will just use the money to help plug existing deficits, and it's not even enough to maintain the status quo. The proposed tax increases in California more than offset any direct federal tax relief, and the "billions to the states" will only make up half of this year's (extremely optimistic) deficit projection.
Also, In case you forgot: Iraq had ties to Bin Laden. Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The world would have ended if we didn't pass the TARP and pay banker bonuses. Glass Steagle was hampering financial "innovation."
Oh, and here's a goodie - you need to keep a good credit score so that you can acquire a lifetime of burdensome debts on "good" terms. Very important that one.
Max - with auto sales in the tank, and most tax receipts for local govt from sales tax, look for cities/counties to start closing...good night america...
L:ast couple weeks took the garbage to the curb in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Only one can instead of two. hmmmm.... Anyone else notice we're throwing away less? Well perhaps you will soon.
Wait til you call 911, and they put you on hold to check if you paid your taxes. If not, please press 1 to pay by credit, 2 or debit, 3 to hear tips for for fire protection, 4 for self defense courses in your area
or, pass a law that caps personal income @ 20M all else goes to the State so long as you are a resident of CA Barley | 02.16.09 - 7:16 pm | #
Yeah, right. More likely the state will go into a slow, systemic breakdown as state-local payment obligations aren't met. (There's already talk of cities and counties withholding property tax remittances to the state in order to offset "delayed" social service payments.) The state doesn't have the wherewithal to pull anything that draconian.
"States are facing a great fiscal crisis. At least 46 states faced or are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or next year, and severe fiscal problems are highly likely to continue into the following year as well. ..."
Key word 'severe'. Ok, so we have been foretold about this for a few months. We are at frame-second 301 in the video of 'Train Wreck GDII' (3,000 frame sec in length). Its going to come to pass that most or all state gov cannot meet last years budget. Now what? Lets move on.
This is like a barometer reading just before the storm. Its falling.
The sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we can get to work rebuilding. Speed | 02.16.09 - 7:06 pm | #
Ever consider there is no single or absolute or predetermined 'bottom' - that the 'bottom' might be contingent on collective actions of individuals & policies of gov't & companies? That's kinda what I think... and as a result I'm not certain we are any closer to a 'bottom' now than last years... that there are many possible 'bottoms' out there with some worse than others.
BTW - Minnesota has a whopper of a budget problem too. Not as bad as Cali but only because we have fewer wallets here.
According to many sources, Gov. Katheleen Sebelius is the front runner to replace Tom Daschle as the HHS Secretary.
Probably not so much now. Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 7:07 pm | #
If she paid her taxes and didn't hire illegals for nannies she should be good to go. To steal a line from Apocalypse Now... condemning somebody for having budget problems in this environment is like handing out speeding tickets at the Indy 500.
Max - with auto sales in the tank, and most tax receipts for local govt from sales tax, look for cities/counties to start closing...good night america... crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
George Skelton wrote a piece in the LATimes today claiming that you could shut down the state government in Sacramento, and the State would still be running a deficit. Of course, this is crazy talk, because when he says "shut down the government" he is only talking about some of the big agencies like the prisons, the CHP, the rangers, and the legislature. Never mind the free medical care, the bloated universities and state colleges, welfare, etc.
He calls the legislature irresponsible, and they are. But it's not helpful to try to have a discussion about budgeting in which huge money pits are off the table.
California is simply going to have to find a way to spend less money. It just isn't possible to raise taxes far enough or fast enough to stave off default.
With the Legislature still one vote shy of an approved budget, the Schwarzenegger administration announced this afternoon that it will shut down Tuesday the final 276 public works projects that it had been allowed to continue operating during the state's cash crisis.
Those projects, worth $3.8 billion, had been exempted from the November order to stop public works projects because of the significant financial cost to cancel contracts, the expense in resuming them or the public-health or public-safety ramifications. The list includes projects to eliminate arsenic in the City of Live Oak and half-built highway construction projects that will have to be protected by barriers so drivers don't crash.
It was a lot easier to laugh at California, land of Arnold, Yahoo, and Los Angeles.
Kansas strikes much closer to my home, both geographically and sentimentally. I can assure you they don't live high on the hog there, even though they do have plenty of hogs.
The '4 solvent' states are Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia
All have small populations, commodity exposure, and rely on Federal government transfers/spending being maintained -- which I expect will happen unless Federal revenues become constrained.
WV is hoping coal mining operations don't become adequately regulated (mine collapses, slurry reservoir dam ruptures, end of life environmental restoration/protection)
MT, WY, ND are somewhat marginal farm lands (less rain in shadow of mountains, shorter growing season farther north.) I don't expect farm mortgages to be a huge problem there in themselves, but the farmer's land value is their retirement fund. Those states have low populations because of migration to stronger job markets by young people, and they're only offset by rich out of staters buying retirement homes, second homes, outdoors/eco-tourism.
Don't know much about them, but that's what I can say offhand.
I didn't mean to say we're near a bottom - just that this is one step in that direction. Trying to avoid the inevitable, such as large scale RIFs of govt employees, salary re-negotiations, and killing state programs only makes it worse. We've got a long way to go still, and it's all downward.
Also, this is another reason why the federal "stimulus" will fail. State recipients will just use the money to help plug existing deficits, and it's not even enough to maintain the status quo. The proposed tax increases in California more than offset any direct federal tax relief, and the "billions to the states" will only make up half of this year's (extremely optimistic) deficit projection. Max | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:18 pm | #
Econs been saying all along the thing was too small to do what was asked of it... I was at diner last night with a buddy and told him it was like pissing in the ocean... the pisser might feel better doing it but the ocean is unchanged.
"George Skelton wrote a piece in the LATimes today claiming that you could shut down the state government in Sacramento, and the State would still be running a deficit."
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"Skelton could stop breathing and still suck."
I must say, I have never understood why the LATimes has run his opinion column as if it were a news feature for all of this time. And now they are letting Hiltzik and Lazarus get away with the same thing in the business section.
A measure of six primary metals traded in London fell 2.4 percent, with copper losing 2.9 percent. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, dropped 3.2 percent on lower rates to haul coal and iron ore for steel production.
The solution in CA is to cut spending and raise taxes. That's where the political quandry comes from. Pissed Off In California | 02.16.09 - 7:34 pm | #
Californians are the 6th most taxed in the nation:
"I must say, I have never understood why the LATimes has run his opinion column as if it were a news feature for all of this time. And now they are letting Hiltzik and Lazarus get away with the same thing in the business section."
I agree, but the LA Times management doesn't consider them opinions.
I cannot help but think here is Massachusetts they are working on the same kind of tax rebate suspension plan. Good thing I owe money this year! Gold and Silver were very nice to me last year, now its time to pay the tax man.
Max writes:
"I don't think you can raise taxes and expect an increase in revenue."
They may get a short blip, and they can claim that they "solved the problem". Six months later, we'll be right back in the same place. The only thing that save California at this point would be a huge business boom that put lots of money in the pockets of the people who pay the bulk of the taxes - and that's not gonna happen in a Depression.
My unofficial indirect local measure of the economy are gangs fighting (revenues in order of importance probably are drugs, gambling, weapons, construction 'concessions')
For Europe, I think I will watch for any news story involving gypsies.
You could always look at things like vacations, or durable goods purchases vs repairs, but these are much more raw and passionate pieces of data
Should be interesting to watch that intention be put into practice. Who pays, how much, to what extent... and the resulting unintended consequences. EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:33 pm | #
Exactly. I wonder why this hasn't been more widely reported. I wonder of this was decided at the recent G7 or among the G20.
Merkel clearly stopped any discussion about letting Hypo going bankrupt in its tracks with this comment. For those that aren't familiar with Germany, the suggestion to let Hypo go under was from a very powerful member within her own party. With UniCredit just about on the plate, the international test case may be upon us soon.
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Many people who live in NC move to SC because the taxes are so much lower.
Residential garbage collection is paid for by the property owners through a direct fee in California.
Ok, but you get my North. Lets solve this problem for them... its our job.
We are a think tank in the front lines. They are bureaucrats who in most cases have never failed in business. I have failed more times that Walt Disney - and succeeded a few too. They are about to fail big time. Let's bring the survival list to the table.
You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf).
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"My unofficial indirect local measure of the economy are gangs fighting (revenues in order of importance probably are drugs, gambling, weapons, construction 'concessions')"
Noted above is that the street price of illegal drugs is falling. When the bad economy hits the gangs, that's when it's really going to get ugly. Note also that gambling and construction is off big time. I don't know about the weapons trade, but it can't be going that well under the circumstances.
For example, the first business i ever bought - (and later lost thru severe downturn), had a survival list of the thirty ways to stall paying creditors...i'm sure you know it too.
I would ask anyone interested to try and come up with an idea where secession from the United States could work. What states would have to be involved? What would the potential interest be? Imagine South Carolina-Georgia-Florida-Alabama-Tennessee-Mississippi-Arkansas-Lousiana-Texas breaking off and starting over using the constitution as THE blueprint. Hmmmmm.
"Colorado must close prisons, slice roughly $225 million from schools and higher education and suspend property-tax breaks for senior citizens to close its funding shortfall, Gov. Bill Ritter's budget director said Tuesday.
The proposals are part of approximately $823 million in personnel and service cuts Ritter proposed for the budget year beginning on July 1. The governor also hopes to take some $264 million out of earmarked funds to keep government services running, Office of State Planning and Budgeting Director Todd Saliman told the Joint Budget Committee."
For Europe, I think I will watch for any news story involving gypsies. EvilHenryPaulson | 02.16.09 - 7:44 pm | #
I think a better measure is rightwing extremist actions. Violence and confrontations are increasing significantly. To me this is the real worry and not just in Germany.
RE,
I remember when large banks were going down like cheap prostitutes, wondering where the next ones would be. Since sometime in November there was an abrupt halt in the procession.
Caisse D'Epargne (owner of Natixis), UniCredit (owner of Bank Austria), Hypo (Owner of Depfa), etc...
Now in the last fortnight, they have all received or are about to receive overt money in different forms.
Certainly a case of a duck appearing calm on the surface, but its feet moving very quickly
The British Lord who told of a national bank run, the American Congressman who told of a run on American MM funds, etc... they all confirm this financial iceberg suggestion
Wyoming is easy to figure out. Severance taxes especially coal. They have no income tax and all the rest are very low. In state college cost, zero. If you ever saw the trains of coal going through NE you would be amazed. The is a dam big whole in WY.
Don't know much about them, but that's what I can say offhand.
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:29 pm | #
Wyoming is actually more similar to Alaska than any other state. There is little farming there. Lots of cattle operations that are very marginal. Mostly owned by very rich folks who are hobby ranchers and do not run them for profit.
Real revenues are oil, gas, and COAL. Minor amounts of mining of lots of different minerals. And tourism.
A lot of educated criminals are going to hit the streets in the US. (Canada immigration please note the task at hand)
California alone is going to dump into the streets, MORE people that we have incarcerated presently as a country.. The Calif per pop ratio is 7:1 verses Canada's. And we count all the ages - not just mature inmates. (therefore really 10:1)
hilarious line form the Mogambo Guru's newest article:
Mr. Steil is not amused at our antics, and continues, on the other hand, we call for trillion dollar stimulus plan on the basis of little more than citing John Maynard Keynes which gives us special license to talk economics without knowing any. Hahaha! Exactly right! Well put!
And like the guy who wears a T-shirt that proudly proclaims
I am not a gynecologist, but Ill take a look
the results of having economic poseurs and idiots at the Federal Reserve inflict their idiotic econometric theories upon us have been Disastrously, Ruinously Bad (DARB).
I would let the Hooverites have their way. Stop all social services payments. Let the spectacle of the freezing, starving, and downtrodden make the nightly news. Babies and grandma freezing to death or starving. Like Ethiopia ... but in Omaha!
Let Adam Smith's invisible hand give the formerly upper middle class the finger for awhile. Then, we truly get the "hammer and sickle shortage" Hannbaugh over at Faux News obsess over.
"Comrade Kristina writes:
Food prices are going down. This summer I paid 4.50 gallon for milk, today I bought a gallon for 2.99"
Um, Kristina didn't you know that deflation must be avoided at all costs? Just ask Ben Bernanke. We must bridge the "output gap" and support milk prices!
Prison bloat of course is a huge waste of money across the whole country, mostly due to the ridiculously transparent DGN drug laws. If states have to start unloading minor offenders to slash costs anyone care to weigh in on odds of pot legalization in US? we legalized alcohol in GD1.
KR writes:
"You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf)."
OK, a couple of ideas:
Redistribute the tax system to make it less dependent on business cycles. This means moving from an over-reliance on income taxes to transaction taxes, such as property sales and retail sales.
Add fees for services rather than giving away services for free or below cost.
But spending must be cut - in business, you learn that you cannot spend money that you do not have. Government needs to move closer to the same principle, although selling bonds to pay for truly long term investments is sometimes reasonable.
Start cutting with the prisons, and repatriate the inmates who are not citizens. Oh, and turn loose the nonviolent drug offenders.
California does not need three college systems (community, state college, and state university). One or two would do nicely.
Stop the edifice complex. When something needs to be build, have engineers design it to a cost target, and keep big-name architects off the ego train.
ova,
The local trade here is to primarily trade Canadian Marijuana for American guns (there are other drugs and cash, but it comes down to specialization)
Even though fighting for turf increases gun demand, the drop in trade/revenues means that they'll have to work off of their inventory
RE,
But aren't Gypsies ideal targets for protectionist/nationalist/right wing movements? Even the immigrants don't like gypsies. They provide a good simple metric common across most of Europe.
"This is my life right now. Will be more like 45% cut in pay once the lack of 09 bonus is figured in."
likewise, even with lagging in nyc. automatic 30% cut just to talk to employers right now. I was being generous. I'd say 50% put the unionaphiles will scream bloody murder while all their fellow non-union workers like up for soup.
Mike Reilly spent his lifetime chasing the California dream. This year he's going to look for it in Colorado.
With a house purchase near Denver in the works, the 38-year-old engineering contractor plans to move his family 1,200 miles away from his home state's lemon groves, sunshine and beaches. For him, years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure.
Is there something left of the California dream?
"If you are a Hollywood actor," Reilly says, "but not for us."
From John Maudin's latest:
"It is Keynes vs. Fisher, von Mises vs. Friedman. It is, as Lacy Hunt says, The Grand Experiment. After 70 years, we are going to see who is right."
I am with the Austrians! Bye Bye Keynesian clowns!
evelyn woods graduate writes:
Clever, considering the Prop 13 supermajority requirement is the direct cause of the CA stalemate.
ferg | 02.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
Another overstatement...
Expenses are too high, even with a huge and mushrooming RE market and the sales and property tax increases it produced.
BTW, how much borrowing will be required to make this budget balance?
$11B..and the denial is deafening.
evelyn woods graduate | 02.16.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Evelyn
It is not an overstatement. You are confusing the amount of money in the budget gap with the problem of the stalement.
The stalemate is a direct result of Prp 13's rule that a super majority of 2/3s is needed to pass a budget.
There is a substantial majority in the Cal legislature and senate voting for the budget bill, and the Gov would sign it. But a 1/3+ minority in the Senate is holding it.
"The tax would raise revenue for the state at a time when budgets are running in the red. Specifically, the bill says it would fund prevention, treatment and recovery programs for those addicted to alcohol and other substances."
We need to increase taxes to meet budget shortfalls, so we'll increase spending to increase taxes.
Some investor guy - exactly..I moved to NCal about a decade ago, and immediately thought about the budget. It was scary then, and each year, the referendum booklet would come in the mail before election time, and it would be packed to the brim with bond issues for everything under the sun. At my first job, a friend of mine and I agreed that we need to shoot every one of them down, and try to spread the word that to keep borrowing like that would be suicide. Pretty much no one listened. If you go back to the news from those days, you'd read stuff that would make your head spin about how all this stuff would pay off with fantastic growth that would more than cover the bond payments. Meanwhile, spending just kept going higher and higher, with every one time short term burst of revenue, the numbers were instantly believed to carry forward into perpetuity...stock market bubble, spend it all, housing bubble, spend even more. Just nuts. We will get exactly what was coming to us, and for punitive damages, just a wee bit more.
Nice, especially tax overhaul. I am serving dinner now...back at ya later..
We need solutions. You and I and people like us that fight it out on the eat-or-be-eaten turf every day are the ones that know the game of survival. They, those bureaucrats are just starting out. How much can they really know. 'Not so much' is my intuitive answer. They need hard core perspective. This is now the business of survival...separate the politics and get on with the job. Time is short. Stakes are 'all in'.
There is a substantial majority in the Cal legislature and senate voting for the budget bill, and the Gov would sign it. But a 1/3+ minority in the Senate is holding it.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 8:02 pm | #
That's an endorsement of the quality of the budget and why we should move on?
A sound budget should garner 2/3 vote needed. Bay Area school bonds and parcel taxes have routinely passed with 70+% majorities.
Too many years of compromise has left the state's finances a shambles. If I were voting today and the proposed budget was only balanced with $11B in borrowing I would vote NO also.
One tax solution is to quit the honor thy poor. Income tax on all wages ages 16 to 65. Minimum with no deductibles. Include all social services income, everything. They will for the first have skin in the game and need to pay attention.
I had to laugh at the two garbage cans a week going down to one....try one a month with room to spare for the garbage you pick up off the streets where you walk.
Get a grip folks. Your world is what you make of it.
People here talk about taxes in a reasonably rational manner,however I have yet to see any discussion of the selective enforcement of the federal tax laws...or the undue influence of the extremely wealthy.Anyone else remember Feingold's plan to restrict the inheritance tax to estates in excess of $100mm and how quickly it got shot down?
"The border was another 'oversight' by the Bush administration. Among many."
Oh GLOD! Give it a rest already. I hate Dickhead and his pet chimp, but that problem goes back sooooooo far.....to type that is just the height of ignorance.
/cr/tard writes:
Prison bloat of course is a huge waste of money across the whole country, mostly due to the ridiculously transparent DGN drug laws. If states have to start unloading minor offenders to slash costs anyone care to weigh in on odds of pot legalization in US? we legalized alcohol in GD1.
/cr/tard | 02.16.09 - 7:57 pm | #
Revenue shortfalls are going to be harder to fill than legislators expect.
Each time state governments increase taxes (sales/gas/etc), it will be countered by a larger than expected pullback by consumers. It is distinctly possible that taxes in some states are already so onerous that future tax hikes will lead to reduced revenue.
I wonder if state politicians are aware of this as they come up with their revenue projections. I suspect not.
The next chapter in this miniseries will be much more interesting than the last.
I honestly think if housing goes back to 200 levels it would not be unrealistic to take Cali government spending back to the same dollar level to break even. If it goes father, well you get the idea Fugly.
Just the usual GOP BS in waving wheat country.
From the KC Star:
Below is a statement by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius regarding what she called the Republican refusal to put politics aside in order to solve the state's problems:
"This is a difficult time for Kansas families, seniors, workers and business owners who are dealing each day with the economic challenges presented by this historic recession.
Last week, I called a meeting of the State Finance Council to consider the issuance of a certificate of indebtedness - a routine action dealing with state cash flow, that allows us to move money from one account to another so we can pay our bills on time. The use of these certificates has been approved every year for the last decade.
When the State Finance Council last met in December we reviewed the cash flow patterns for this year and asked for a certificate to cover the remainder of the fiscal year. A majority of legislative council members refused to approve a certificate to adequately meet obligations through the end of February.
Today, the Republican leadership of the legislature told me they would not approve the February certificate, only necessary because of their actions in December, until I sign the 2009 budget bill.
The problem is, due to the slow action by the legislature, the bill has not been delivered to my desk, so I have nothing to sign.
Furthermore, because this bill deals with hundreds of millions of dollars affecting almost every Kansan - once it is delivered - it would be prudent for me to review it thoroughly with my staff to make sure there are no errors in the text of the bill, as there have been in the past.
The certificate deals with cash flow and as legislative leaders all know, it has nothing to do with the revised 2009 budget. We will need a certificate to make our monthly payments, whether or not the budget work is completed.
This political game the Republican leaders are playing affects real Kansas families.
The state cannot pay tax refunds to families who are waiting for money they need to pay rent and utilities. State employee paychecks, due this Wednesday, are now in jeopardy. Payments to health care providers and school payments, due this month, could be delayed.
Through their refusal to act today, the Republican legislative leadership is jeopardizing our citizens' pocketbooks for no other reason than to play political games - games in which the only ones set to lose are Kansas families, workers and schools."
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Not suggesting who should pay what proportion of taxes, I just think the payroll tax in America (and it's Employment Insurance premium counterpart in Canada) should be abolished. Negative distortion: encourages contractor status, hurdle borne by smaller businesses.
What I do know is that it is not feasible to maintain government revenues if all incomes were taxed at the same rate.
The work for welfare idea comes off as appealing, but I believe Australia brought it in under the John Howard government to no particular success.
Byzantine_Ruins
Of course it does, that's going to be an important and large part of the shipping market in the near future.
It was interesting to see scrapping drop off along with the lease rates. High commodity prices boosted lease rates, but low commodity prices reduced the value of scrapping the boat all the while loans were outstanding.
"Wouldn't this increase unemployment?
BondsOfSteel"
Not technically. Since they would not collect unemployment, which is how we pretend unemployment is so low. It would put the burden of housing and feeding them on their families instead of on the tax payer. Not a perfect solution of course, but neither was locking up 1Million people for non-violent crimes. Of course many of these black men could probably do light construction, but then you have to send the mexicans home, and that makes people sad.
When Jews hoard more money than they need as they are currently doing in America, there is less money circulating for everyone else.
Jews want people to 'shop till they drop' in their Jew-owned retail stores, but with so many Americans just barely getting by with the basics they have no money left over for other things. Thus with their incessant hoarding, coupled with their refusal to pay the despised goyim a decent living wage, Jews are undermining the very economy which made them the wealthiest ethnic minority in America.
"We are a think tank in the front lines. They are bureaucrats who in most cases have never failed in business. I have failed more times that Walt Disney - and succeeded a few too. They are about to fail big time. Let's bring the survival list to the table.
You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf).
KR | 02.16.09 - 7:46 pm |"
That we are a think tank, but we should use our collective minds to solve the root causes of our problems. I am constantly working on taking down sectors such as the banking cartel, the Fed, the medical industrial complex, and generally causing the entire system to be reset to zero, a base from which we can establish sound governing and monetary principals established under the Constutition.
"furloughing 200,000 state workers at least one day a month"
We live at Donner Lake just east of Donner Pass (7200 + ft). California will be in a heap of trouble if CalTrans can't keep the snow off the roads - north, south and east west.
Hwy 80 has been closed to trucks and I5 at both ends of the state have been closed due to snow conditions.
You can't imagine the amount of truck traffic over Donner Pass until you see the miles of trucks backed up installing chains or waiting for the snow to be removed and visibility improve. We are watching the weather to make a dash back to Donner from Belmont. Even with light snow the road is treacherous. Add wind and heavy snow it is impossible.
Good Luck All.
At times it sounds like KFI in here tonight and just as ill-informed. Note - Cali does require a 2/3 supermajority to pass a budget. regardless of tax increases. Second - Prop 13 is what got us here along with the lack of forward thinking to flatten out sptending increases during flush times. Third - the irony is that it is the very same just cut spending 30% damn the consequences crowd which is the small minority in the capitol holding the budget up. They are the same ones who don't value public education and want to do draconian measures like dismantling an already overcrowded college system which used to the best in the nation before endless cycles of budget cuts began. Final thought, sm_landlord - Cali has term limits for legislatures. If your such smart and hardened man of capitalism, run for office with your neat ideas.
I have to give credit to arnold tho. When he opted for cuts, everyone was against him and the public voted against his proposed measures of cutting spending. I blame the voters. They voted all the democrats in, now everyone in Cali is going to take it up the ass. Dam 5% income tax surcharge. i aint buying shiet if this goes through. I'll be cutting my spending with all these dumb tax increases.
The sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we can get to work rebuilding.
First OZ reference.
It's good to be king.
Nostrovia,
According to many sources, Gov. Katheleen Sebelius is the front runner to replace Tom Daschle as the HHS Secretary.
Probably not so much now.
oops meant, "HHS Secretary nominee"
so much for Prop. 98 "safeguarding" K-14 Education spending, why bother going to the polls. Guess children are fucked one way or another.....
Dunno, if I were Sebelius a DC job would be looking real good to me now.
barely-
Both targets and y-o-y change are negative. The 2008-2009 Budget Act estimates were widely regarded as a joke when they were released; by law, Cali must pass a balanced budget every year, and they're just used to perpetuate the farce. (They actually predicted an increase in revenue for this year!) What's scary is the real y-o-y decline. No state agency, ever, plans on spending cuts. Ever. At the rate tax revenue in Cali is declining, the operable $40 billion deficit by June 2010 predicted by the governator is laughable. They can't raise taxes fast enough to fix this.
So....
The four solvent states?
I'm going with Vermont, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, denial.
should be here:
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Even so, Friday's announcement that 522 first- and second-year teachers would be laid off next year from the Marion County Public Schools felt different.
BRISTOL - If the most pessimistic budget scenario emerges in the next couple of months, the school system will be forced to lay off about 10 percent of its workforce this summer including 71 teachers.
PROVIDENCE Nearly 600 teachers will receive preliminary layoff notices next week, although the vast majority will retain their jobs once the School Department works through a Byzantine seniority system known as bumping....the department has targeted 42 teaching positions at the middle schools; 21 at the elementary schools and 18 at the high schools.
Barley
That exact CBPP article has been one of my favourite single data points since I came across it last October.
Still boggles the mind how a few months ago it was a $78.2bn shortfall for FY09 -> FY11, and now it is $350b
yogi,
Pennsylvania, solvent?!
Misean we're even on the keyboards
"The alleged conduct by a former rogue employee is in direct violation of the firm's values and policies. We reported this matter to the authorities and have provided every assistance to their investigation," said spokeswoman Mary Claire Delaney."
Paramedics were called shortly after this statement due to several attendees laughing themselves into severe comas.
Kumbaya, baby.
yogi: if CT is solvent now, it won't be much longer. Too reliant on the finance sector.
Yeah I blanked out on 3 and 4.
We're probably on the verge of a full-scale 1978 Prop 13-style tax revolt in CA and a few other states. Regardless of the appropriateness of the sentiment, the animus towards state and local taxes has been building, and may finally erupt given the larger economic atmosphere.
They can't raise taxes fast enough to fix this.
Max
ah, but they can preprivatize!
or, pass a law that caps personal income @ 20M all else goes to the State so long as you are a resident of CA
I do think some Disctricts or States will go rouge by announcing "income tax free zones" sounds wierd but it could happe
Nice regressive new tax proposals for Cali.
yogi,
Check.
Nostrovia,
Gotta file those state taxes early before all the criminals, nay, politicians here in Mass double dip another pension and claim my refund.
Someone told me Middlebury College(VT) is $500 mil in the red. Unconfirmed.
But I thought the Kansas Lotto was going to solve this. :-/
Also, this is another reason why the federal "stimulus" will fail. State recipients will just use the money to help plug existing deficits, and it's not even enough to maintain the status quo. The proposed tax increases in California more than offset any direct federal tax relief, and the "billions to the states" will only make up half of this year's (extremely optimistic) deficit projection.
We're running just to stand still.
Max - thx for the links to the homeless lady that I posted here.
Not only the states, but their pension funds. NC and VA I am pretty sure followed the CALPERS model.
start to worry when fed gov suspends tax refunds
zirpy, I know you're a pinhead and all, but it is never appropriate to use that term with children.
The state de-stimulus. Anti-Viagra!
A big nothingburger. Deficits don't matter.
Also, In case you forgot: Iraq had ties to Bin Laden. Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. The world would have ended if we didn't pass the TARP and pay banker bonuses. Glass Steagle was hampering financial "innovation."
Oh, and here's a goodie - you need to keep a good credit score so that you can acquire a lifetime of burdensome debts on "good" terms. Very important that one.
"I do think some Disctricts or States will go rouge by announcing "income tax free zones" sounds wierd but it could happen"
WA and TX are already that, of course, though they get around it other ways (WA taxing services, TX high property taxes)
I think Rev Wright was correct...America's chickens (excessive credit) are coming home to roost...good night America...
Max - with auto sales in the tank, and most tax receipts for local govt from sales tax, look for cities/counties to start closing...good night america...
We're probably on the verge of a full-scale 1978 Prop 13-style tax revolt in CA and a few other states.
Clever, considering the Prop 13 supermajority requirement is the direct cause of the CA stalemate.
OT but whatever:
L:ast couple weeks took the garbage to the curb in the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Only one can instead of two. hmmmm.... Anyone else notice we're throwing away less? Well perhaps you will soon.
Wait til you call 911, and they put you on hold to check if you paid your taxes. If not, please press 1 to pay by credit, 2 or debit, 3 to hear tips for for fire protection, 4 for self defense courses in your area
Middlebury College isn't large enough to have a $500M fiscal deficit, but last I remember their endowment fund lost $700M in 2008.
The endowment consists of about 20-25% of operating expenses. they're toast.
or, pass a law that caps personal income @ 20M all else goes to the State so long as you are a resident of CA
Barley | 02.16.09 - 7:16 pm | #
Yeah, right. More likely the state will go into a slow, systemic breakdown as state-local payment obligations aren't met. (There's already talk of cities and counties withholding property tax remittances to the state in order to offset "delayed" social service payments.) The state doesn't have the wherewithal to pull anything that draconian.
"States are facing a great fiscal crisis. At least 46 states faced or are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or next year, and severe fiscal problems are highly likely to continue into the following year as well. ..."
Key word 'severe'. Ok, so we have been foretold about this for a few months. We are at frame-second 301 in the video of 'Train Wreck GDII' (3,000 frame sec in length). Its going to come to pass that most or all state gov cannot meet last years budget. Now what? Lets move on.
This is like a barometer reading just before the storm. Its falling.
The sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we can get to work rebuilding.
Speed | 02.16.09 - 7:06 pm | #
Ever consider there is no single or absolute or predetermined 'bottom' - that the 'bottom' might be contingent on collective actions of individuals & policies of gov't & companies? That's kinda what I think... and as a result I'm not certain we are any closer to a 'bottom' now than last years... that there are many possible 'bottoms' out there with some worse than others.
BTW - Minnesota has a whopper of a budget problem too. Not as bad as Cali but only because we have fewer wallets here.
AZ and NV projected budget gap for 2010 = 30% of general fund. Holy crap.
Three things in life are certain - death, taxes & bureuacracy.
This is not stimulating at all.
Dale Earnhardt Jr vs. Brian Vickers Daytona 2009:
Earnhardt Jr. puts Vickers into the crowd and the wall, crunching the leader's car, Kyle Bush...
"If you can't win, put them into the ditch"..is what G.W. Bush would say.
YouTube - 2009 NASCAR Dale Earnhardt Jr vs Brian Vickers Daytona 500 Live HD
EHP,
Just in case you haven't seen this.
Here's a compilation of similar analysis and wing and a prayer states' hopes for maximum ponies:
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Good luck with that.
C
He may have meant they owe 500 million toward recent and ongoing development projects, which they can no longer afford to finance.
As a proud CA resident, I can proudly say of our deficit, "We're number one!".
According to many sources, Gov. Katheleen Sebelius is the front runner to replace Tom Daschle as the HHS Secretary.
Probably not so much now.
Basel Too | 02.16.09 - 7:07 pm | #
If she paid her taxes and didn't hire illegals for nannies she should be good to go. To steal a line from Apocalypse Now... condemning somebody for having budget problems in this environment is like handing out speeding tickets at the Indy 500.
Max - with auto sales in the tank, and most tax receipts for local govt from sales tax, look for cities/counties to start closing...good night america...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
From the Cali Sec State (pdf):
New Auto Registrations (Fiscal Year to Date):
690,140 Through Nov. 2007
513,660 Through Nov. 2008
George Skelton wrote a piece in the LATimes today claiming that you could shut down the state government in Sacramento, and the State would still be running a deficit. Of course, this is crazy talk, because when he says "shut down the government" he is only talking about some of the big agencies like the prisons, the CHP, the rangers, and the legislature. Never mind the free medical care, the bloated universities and state colleges, welfare, etc.
He calls the legislature irresponsible, and they are. But it's not helpful to try to have a discussion about budgeting in which huge money pits are off the table.
California is simply going to have to find a way to spend less money. It just isn't possible to raise taxes far enough or fast enough to stave off default.
And on and on it goes.
State shuts down more projects...UE should reach 15% in no time:
California lawmakers remain one vote short in budget negotiations - Los Angeles Times
With the Legislature still one vote shy of an approved budget, the Schwarzenegger administration announced this afternoon that it will shut down Tuesday the final 276 public works projects that it had been allowed to continue operating during the state's cash crisis.
Those projects, worth $3.8 billion, had been exempted from the November order to stop public works projects because of the significant financial cost to cancel contracts, the expense in resuming them or the public-health or public-safety ramifications. The list includes projects to eliminate arsenic in the City of Live Oak and half-built highway construction projects that will have to be protected by barriers so drivers don't crash.
"Anyone else notice we're throwing away less?"
Yep. My personal production of garbage is down 40 or 50%.
ShortCourage,
"As a proud CA resident, I can proudly say of our deficit, "We're number one!"."
Unfortunately, the prize is a bucket of burning Number 2 pout liberally over our heads.
I hate the prize part.
Nostrovia,
It was a lot easier to laugh at California, land of Arnold, Yahoo, and Los Angeles.
Kansas strikes much closer to my home, both geographically and sentimentally. I can assure you they don't live high on the hog there, even though they do have plenty of hogs.
The '4 solvent' states are Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia
All have small populations, commodity exposure, and rely on Federal government transfers/spending being maintained -- which I expect will happen unless Federal revenues become constrained.
WV is hoping coal mining operations don't become adequately regulated (mine collapses, slurry reservoir dam ruptures, end of life environmental restoration/protection)
MT, WY, ND are somewhat marginal farm lands (less rain in shadow of mountains, shorter growing season farther north.) I don't expect farm mortgages to be a huge problem there in themselves, but the farmer's land value is their retirement fund. Those states have low populations because of migration to stronger job markets by young people, and they're only offset by rich out of staters buying retirement homes, second homes, outdoors/eco-tourism.
Don't know much about them, but that's what I can say offhand.
thread music:
YouTube - California Songs
As a proud CA resident, I can proudly say of our deficit, "We're number one!".
ShortCourage | 02.16.09 - 7:26 pm | #
Shhhhhh! It's illegal for California to have a deficit! Call it a "shortfall" please.
I didn't mean to say we're near a bottom - just that this is one step in that direction. Trying to avoid the inevitable, such as large scale RIFs of govt employees, salary re-negotiations, and killing state programs only makes it worse. We've got a long way to go still, and it's all downward.
Also, this is another reason why the federal "stimulus" will fail. State recipients will just use the money to help plug existing deficits, and it's not even enough to maintain the status quo. The proposed tax increases in California more than offset any direct federal tax relief, and the "billions to the states" will only make up half of this year's (extremely optimistic) deficit projection.
Max | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:18 pm | #
Econs been saying all along the thing was too small to do what was asked of it... I was at diner last night with a buddy and told him it was like pissing in the ocean... the pisser might feel better doing it but the ocean is unchanged.
RE,
did catch that, but thanks anyways.
As of January, West Virginia is now facing a 2008-09 deficit.
http://www.wvbudget.gov/revenues/RGRjan09.pdf
I think WY and MT will be the only ones in the black.
sm_landlord,
"George Skelton wrote a piece in the LATimes today claiming that you could shut down the state government in Sacramento, and the State would still be running a deficit."
Skelton could stop breathing and still suck.
Nostrovia,
The blog should find and emphasize a positive solution to each of these tell-tale signs of the Greatest Crash Known to Mankind, this crash.
For example, it is known, and accepted that State budgets are going to fail. Ok, get over it - with a solution.
First, we can skip garbage collection - really. We can deal with it.. most of it.
anyone else get to the numbers and just space out? when CA can't write any more pay checks they'll get down to business. wake me then.
I'm californica dreaming of ponies wrapped in a tarp wrapped in a taco shell wrapped in a pizza.
RE,
Did catch that, but thanks anyways.
Should be interesting to watch that intention be put into practice. Who pays, how much, to what extent... and the resulting unintended consequences.
and the resulting unintended consequences.
ruthless default.
"For example, it is known, and accepted that State budgets are going to fail. Ok, get over it - with a solution."
The solution in CA is to cut spending and raise taxes. That's where the political quandry comes from.
KR - there is no solution...only time will correct these problems, just make sure you are ready...
I believe Wyoming has a Congressman for every 12 people. So they will continue to be bailed out by New Yorkers.
Republicans are loving this crap. The only solution in their mind is to cut spending.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"Skelton could stop breathing and still suck."
I must say, I have never understood why the LATimes has run his opinion column as if it were a news feature for all of this time. And now they are letting Hiltzik and Lazarus get away with the same thing in the business section.
Now,Now! We must pay government royalty first. NO TAX REFUND FOR YOU!
Brought to you by taxpayers used as plungers.
sm_landlord - the LAtimes is bankrupt and will be gone in 2-3 years...
A measure of six primary metals traded in London fell 2.4 percent, with copper losing 2.9 percent. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, dropped 3.2 percent on lower rates to haul coal and iron ore for steel production.
The solution in CA is to cut spending and raise taxes. That's where the political quandry comes from.
Pissed Off In California | 02.16.09 - 7:34 pm | #
Californians are the 6th most taxed in the nation:
The Tax Foundation - California's State and Local Tax Burden, 1977-2008
Don't know much about them, but that's what I can say offhand.
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:29 pm | #
Can't speak for WV but for NoDak, WY & MT - yupper.
"there is no solution"
start with cut all salaries by 30%. no whining, be thankful you have a job at all.
KR writes:
"First, we can skip garbage collection - really. We can deal with it.. most of it."
Residential garbage collection is paid for by the property owners through a direct fee in California.
sm_landlord,
"I must say, I have never understood why the LATimes has run his opinion column as if it were a news feature for all of this time. And now they are letting Hiltzik and Lazarus get away with the same thing in the business section."
I agree, but the LA Times management doesn't consider them opinions.
Nostrovia,
I cannot help but think here is Massachusetts they are working on the same kind of tax rebate suspension plan. Good thing I owe money this year! Gold and Silver were very nice to me last year, now its time to pay the tax man.
"The solution in CA is to cut spending and raise taxes. That's where the political quandry comes from."
It would be nice if the former were on the table.
Nostrovia,
"Californians are the 6th most taxed in the nation:"
I don't think CA can take 45B of spending cuts at once, going into a possible depression.
I don't think CA can take 45B of spending cuts at once, going into a possible depression.
Pissed Off In California | 02.16.09 - 7:39 pm | #
I don't think you can raise taxes and expect an increase in revenue.
What an unholy fricking MESS.
and no, I don't have a solution.
California is over-rated; I realized that after living there for years.
Seems like a whole lotta other people might get the same idea soon
They flew too high and too fast.
Now theys gotta crash
(Hey that rhymes!)
You miss a tax payment, you're toast with penalties, liens and levies. They miss a refund. Oh well.
I suppose an organized tax revolt is a real possibility.
Go For Gold: 'A Monetary Stalingrad" is on its way to Europe
pay other than payroll taxes i am not going to file fuck the oligarchy
Max,
"I don't think you can raise taxes and expect an increase in revenue."
Nope, but it will create more REO's.
That's good, right?
Nostrovia,
Max writes:
"I don't think you can raise taxes and expect an increase in revenue."
They may get a short blip, and they can claim that they "solved the problem". Six months later, we'll be right back in the same place. The only thing that save California at this point would be a huge business boom that put lots of money in the pockets of the people who pay the bulk of the taxes - and that's not gonna happen in a Depression.
My unofficial indirect local measure of the economy are gangs fighting (revenues in order of importance probably are drugs, gambling, weapons, construction 'concessions')
For Europe, I think I will watch for any news story involving gypsies.
You could always look at things like vacations, or durable goods purchases vs repairs, but these are much more raw and passionate pieces of data
GaryB writes:
You miss a tax payment, you're toast with penalties, liens and levies. They miss a refund. Oh well.
Its funny how they can stick it in and break it off, but wow if you miss a decimal place on Item 13b Section 4...
You know, I've been thinking about moving. My tax burden would go way way down if I move from CA to NV or OR.
Should be interesting to watch that intention be put into practice. Who pays, how much, to what extent... and the resulting unintended consequences.
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:33 pm | #
Exactly. I wonder why this hasn't been more widely reported. I wonder of this was decided at the recent G7 or among the G20.
Merkel clearly stopped any discussion about letting Hypo going bankrupt in its tracks with this comment. For those that aren't familiar with Germany, the suggestion to let Hypo go under was from a very powerful member within her own party. With UniCredit just about on the plate, the international test case may be upon us soon.
I think that $51 billion nationwide is for until July 1, 2009. Illinois estimates are $9 billion deficit in the next 17 months.
add that to Cali $42 billion and that is $51 billion in the next 17 months. This is a huge freight train that is only beginning to be noticed.
States cannot print money. Bonding, taxes and cuts are most of the options.
Barley writes:
should be here:
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Hundreds of teachers, administrators and other school employees across South Carolina could lose their jobs once the school year ends, causing classrooms to get more crowded as officials deal with ever-shrinking state revenues.
Many people who live in NC move to SC because the taxes are so much lower.
sm_landlord writes:
They may get a short blip, and they can claim that they "solved the problem". Six months later, we'll be right back in the same place.
So then we do the same thing again...
What's the problem?
1 currency almost [yogi] writes:
So....
The four solvent states?
I'm going with Vermont, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, denial.
1 currency almost [yogi] | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:12 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I thought TX would be on the solvent list. No?
sm_landlord writes:
Residential garbage collection is paid for by the property owners through a direct fee in California.
Ok, but you get my North. Lets solve this problem for them... its our job.
We are a think tank in the front lines. They are bureaucrats who in most cases have never failed in business. I have failed more times that Walt Disney - and succeeded a few too. They are about to fail big time. Let's bring the survival list to the table.
You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf).
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"My unofficial indirect local measure of the economy are gangs fighting (revenues in order of importance probably are drugs, gambling, weapons, construction 'concessions')"
Noted above is that the street price of illegal drugs is falling. When the bad economy hits the gangs, that's when it's really going to get ugly. Note also that gambling and construction is off big time. I don't know about the weapons trade, but it can't be going that well under the circumstances.
Global crisis in a nutshell. He left out the fraud and illegal activities.
FT.com / US Daily View
For example, the first business i ever bought - (and later lost thru severe downturn), had a survival list of the thirty ways to stall paying creditors...i'm sure you know it too.
anyone notice food prices still have not moved down? wtf?
Did CA already let the prisoners out?
I would ask anyone interested to try and come up with an idea where secession from the United States could work. What states would have to be involved? What would the potential interest be? Imagine South Carolina-Georgia-Florida-Alabama-Tennessee-Mississippi-Arkansas-Lousiana-Texas breaking off and starting over using the constitution as THE blueprint. Hmmmmm.
/cr/tard writes:
anyone notice food prices still have not moved down? wtf?
/cr/tard | 02.16.09 - 7:49 pm | #
Gas is moving up too. Damn refiners.
ova - good BDI ref. They're still sliding:
DryShips Inc.
Try this, idled fleet reaches 800k TEU, almost 7% of the world fleet:
Pacific Shipper Online -- Idle container fleet hits 800,000 TEUs
Momma.
C
The pain revealed:
ColoradoPols.com:: The Pain Revealed
"Colorado must close prisons, slice roughly $225 million from schools and higher education and suspend property-tax breaks for senior citizens to close its funding shortfall, Gov. Bill Ritter's budget director said Tuesday.
The proposals are part of approximately $823 million in personnel and service cuts Ritter proposed for the budget year beginning on July 1. The governor also hopes to take some $264 million out of earmarked funds to keep government services running, Office of State Planning and Budgeting Director Todd Saliman told the Joint Budget Committee."
Clever, considering the Prop 13 supermajority requirement is the direct cause of the CA stalemate.
ferg | 02.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
Another overstatement...
Expenses are too high, even with a huge and mushrooming RE market and the sales and property tax increases it produced.
BTW, how much borrowing will be required to make this budget balance?
$11B..and the denial is deafening.
For Europe, I think I will watch for any news story involving gypsies.
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.16.09 - 7:44 pm | #
I think a better measure is rightwing extremist actions. Violence and confrontations are increasing significantly. To me this is the real worry and not just in Germany.
/cr/tard writes:
"there is no solution"
start with cut all salaries by 30%. no whining, be thankful you have a job at all.
/cr/tard | 02.16.09 - 7:38 pm | #
This is my life right now. Will be more like 45% cut in pay once the lack of 09 bonus is figured in. We are thankful but ouch! It leaves a welt.
RE,
I remember when large banks were going down like cheap prostitutes, wondering where the next ones would be. Since sometime in November there was an abrupt halt in the procession.
Caisse D'Epargne (owner of Natixis), UniCredit (owner of Bank Austria), Hypo (Owner of Depfa), etc...
Now in the last fortnight, they have all received or are about to receive overt money in different forms.
Certainly a case of a duck appearing calm on the surface, but its feet moving very quickly
The British Lord who told of a national bank run, the American Congressman who told of a run on American MM funds, etc... they all confirm this financial iceberg suggestion
Wyoming is easy to figure out. Severance taxes especially coal. They have no income tax and all the rest are very low. In state college cost, zero. If you ever saw the trains of coal going through NE you would be amazed. The is a dam big whole in WY.
Nope, but it will create more REO's.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:43 pm | #
Nah, after Wednesday Brother Barack will pay your mortgage. So everything's cool.
Food prices are going down. This summer I paid 4.50 gallon for milk, today I bought a gallon for 2.99
Don't know much about them, but that's what I can say offhand.
EvilHenryPaulson | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 7:29 pm | #
Wyoming is actually more similar to Alaska than any other state. There is little farming there. Lots of cattle operations that are very marginal. Mostly owned by very rich folks who are hobby ranchers and do not run them for profit.
Real revenues are oil, gas, and COAL. Minor amounts of mining of lots of different minerals. And tourism.
Not many people.
A lot of educated criminals are going to hit the streets in the US. (Canada immigration please note the task at hand)
California alone is going to dump into the streets, MORE people that we have incarcerated presently as a country.. The Calif per pop ratio is 7:1 verses Canada's. And we count all the ages - not just mature inmates. (therefore really 10:1)
hilarious line form the Mogambo Guru's newest article:
Mr. Steil is not amused at our antics, and continues, on the other hand, we call for trillion dollar stimulus plan on the basis of little more than citing John Maynard Keynes which gives us special license to talk economics without knowing any. Hahaha! Exactly right! Well put!
And like the guy who wears a T-shirt that proudly proclaims
I am not a gynecologist, but Ill take a look
the results of having economic poseurs and idiots at the Federal Reserve inflict their idiotic econometric theories upon us have been Disastrously, Ruinously Bad (DARB).
I would let the Hooverites have their way. Stop all social services payments. Let the spectacle of the freezing, starving, and downtrodden make the nightly news. Babies and grandma freezing to death or starving. Like Ethiopia ... but in Omaha!
Let Adam Smith's invisible hand give the formerly upper middle class the finger for awhile. Then, we truly get the "hammer and sickle shortage" Hannbaugh over at Faux News obsess over.
Record Number of People Waste Time at Work
Quit wasting time you slackers!
California's budget grew very quickly. It doubled between FYE 1997 and FYE 2007. http://www.sen.ca.gov/budget/budgethistory.pdf
Why? Three strikes, Prop 98 and a christmas tree full of other voter approved spending. Much of it came without accompanying revenue sources.
"Corrections spending has increased fivefold since 1994." California budget mess: Where did our money go? - ContraCostaTimes.com
Oregon has this all figured out:
Outrage brewing over proposed 1,900% beer tax hike
Bye Bye California Dream !
Just dream of memories gone by...
The Beach Boys - Wouldn't it be nice
YouTube - The Beach Boys - Wouldn't it be nice
above link was wrong
lawn grass writes:
Global crisis in a nutshell. He left out the fraud and illegal activities.
Here is the link to Martin Wolf video
FT.com / US Daily View
Here is the link to Martin Wolf video
And did I mention that it gets a little breezy there about 360 days a year?
EvilHenryPaulson(Excellent) writes:
yogi,
Pennsylvania, solvent?!
I'm glad I didn't have to be the first one with this response.
Damn, Yogi, don't bogart that, that's some good shit.
Oh my, I'm shocked, shocked that there might have been price-fixing in shipping...!
Pacific Shipper Online -- Widespread conspiracy alleged
I love pacificshipper.com. Always got barnacles that others don't see.
C
"Comrade Kristina writes:
Food prices are going down. This summer I paid 4.50 gallon for milk, today I bought a gallon for 2.99"
Um, Kristina didn't you know that deflation must be avoided at all costs? Just ask Ben Bernanke. We must bridge the "output gap" and support milk prices!
Prison bloat of course is a huge waste of money across the whole country, mostly due to the ridiculously transparent DGN drug laws. If states have to start unloading minor offenders to slash costs anyone care to weigh in on odds of pot legalization in US? we legalized alcohol in GD1.
Omaha! Obamaville of NE.
KR writes:
"You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf)."
OK, a couple of ideas:
But spending must be cut - in business, you learn that you cannot spend money that you do not have. Government needs to move closer to the same principle, although selling bonds to pay for truly long term investments is sometimes reasonable.
Start cutting with the prisons, and repatriate the inmates who are not citizens. Oh, and turn loose the nonviolent drug offenders.
California does not need three college systems (community, state college, and state university). One or two would do nicely.
Stop the edifice complex. When something needs to be build, have engineers design it to a cost target, and keep big-name architects off the ego train.
I could go on...
ova,
The local trade here is to primarily trade Canadian Marijuana for American guns (there are other drugs and cash, but it comes down to specialization)
Even though fighting for turf increases gun demand, the drop in trade/revenues means that they'll have to work off of their inventory
RE,
But aren't Gypsies ideal targets for protectionist/nationalist/right wing movements? Even the immigrants don't like gypsies. They provide a good simple metric common across most of Europe.
"This is my life right now. Will be more like 45% cut in pay once the lack of 09 bonus is figured in."
likewise, even with lagging in nyc. automatic 30% cut just to talk to employers right now. I was being generous. I'd say 50% put the unionaphiles will scream bloody murder while all their fellow non-union workers like up for soup.
Bye Bye California dream
Mike Reilly spent his lifetime chasing the California dream. This year he's going to look for it in Colorado.
With a house purchase near Denver in the works, the 38-year-old engineering contractor plans to move his family 1,200 miles away from his home state's lemon groves, sunshine and beaches. For him, years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure.
Is there something left of the California dream?
"If you are a Hollywood actor," Reilly says, "but not for us."
From John Maudin's latest:
"It is Keynes vs. Fisher, von Mises vs. Friedman. It is, as Lacy Hunt says, The Grand Experiment. After 70 years, we are going to see who is right."
I am with the Austrians! Bye Bye Keynesian clowns!
corx: s/DGN/GDN
evelyn woods graduate writes:
Clever, considering the Prop 13 supermajority requirement is the direct cause of the CA stalemate.
ferg | 02.16.09 - 7:22 pm | #
Another overstatement...
Expenses are too high, even with a huge and mushrooming RE market and the sales and property tax increases it produced.
BTW, how much borrowing will be required to make this budget balance?
$11B..and the denial is deafening.
evelyn woods graduate | 02.16.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Evelyn
It is not an overstatement. You are confusing the amount of money in the budget gap with the problem of the stalement.
The stalemate is a direct result of Prp 13's rule that a super majority of 2/3s is needed to pass a budget.
There is a substantial majority in the Cal legislature and senate voting for the budget bill, and the Gov would sign it. But a 1/3+ minority in the Senate is holding it.
Counterpointer,
is a very good hub of info
If you desire to follow shipping, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping
Max,
Re: OR
"The tax would raise revenue for the state at a time when budgets are running in the red. Specifically, the bill says it would fund prevention, treatment and recovery programs for those addicted to alcohol and other substances."
We need to increase taxes to meet budget shortfalls, so we'll increase spending to increase taxes.
Makes sense to me...
Nostrovia,
The Mamas and the Papas - California dreamin
YouTube -
Bye bye Cali dreamin !
sm_landlord writes:
I agree.
For instance, if you collect unemployment, you work for the government at least 2 days a week which leaves you 3 days to look for a new job.
A look at fellow ass wipe Timmy's public-private toxic assets scheme
Page not found « The Baseline Scenario
If California has suspended tax refunds, they've defaulted on their debts. What's CA's FICO score now?
"The stalemate is a direct result of Prp 13's rule that a super majority of 2/3s is needed to pass a budget."
Thank Glod! for that.
Nostrovia,
sdbri writes:
"If California has suspended tax refunds, they've defaulted on their debts. What's CA's FICO score now?"
Of course the State does not have a FICO score, but Cali now has the lowest bond rating of any State...
Some investor guy - exactly..I moved to NCal about a decade ago, and immediately thought about the budget. It was scary then, and each year, the referendum booklet would come in the mail before election time, and it would be packed to the brim with bond issues for everything under the sun. At my first job, a friend of mine and I agreed that we need to shoot every one of them down, and try to spread the word that to keep borrowing like that would be suicide. Pretty much no one listened. If you go back to the news from those days, you'd read stuff that would make your head spin about how all this stuff would pay off with fantastic growth that would more than cover the bond payments. Meanwhile, spending just kept going higher and higher, with every one time short term burst of revenue, the numbers were instantly believed to carry forward into perpetuity...stock market bubble, spend it all, housing bubble, spend even more. Just nuts. We will get exactly what was coming to us, and for punitive damages, just a wee bit more.
The future for America and Americans - pick a healthy fiscal state to live with good services.
There's about 8 - 10 at most
Hint - Cali, all of the South, and most flyover country are not it !
If California has suspended tax refunds, they've defaulted on their debts. What's CA's FICO score now?
sdbri | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 8:05 pm | #
They have until May to pay the refunds, then they must pay interest.
PSGirl,
"For instance, if you collect unemployment, you work for the government at least 2 days a week which leaves you 3 days to look for a new job."
The state administers those funds, they're paid by the employers, and increase in a downturn.
Gah!
Nostrovia,
I am sure Arnold is thinking right now "But things always work out in my movies!"
sm_landlord writes:
OK, a couple of ideas:
Nice, especially tax overhaul. I am serving dinner now...back at ya later..
We need solutions. You and I and people like us that fight it out on the eat-or-be-eaten turf every day are the ones that know the game of survival. They, those bureaucrats are just starting out. How much can they really know. 'Not so much' is my intuitive answer. They need hard core perspective. This is now the business of survival...separate the politics and get on with the job. Time is short. Stakes are 'all in'.
There is a substantial majority in the Cal legislature and senate voting for the budget bill, and the Gov would sign it. But a 1/3+ minority in the Senate is holding it.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 8:02 pm | #
That's an endorsement of the quality of the budget and why we should move on?
A sound budget should garner 2/3 vote needed. Bay Area school bonds and parcel taxes have routinely passed with 70+% majorities.
Too many years of compromise has left the state's finances a shambles. If I were voting today and the proposed budget was only balanced with $11B in borrowing I would vote NO also.
Its time to get the house in order.
KR,
"Time is short. Stakes are 'all in'."
Erm, unfortunately the hand is also dealt.
Nostrovia,
All this bad news must be good for a 200 up day on the Dow tomorrow. LOL
As far as the Calif budget problem goes, it is of the people's making, but the $10B spent annually on illegal alien services has not helped.
The border was another 'oversight' by the Bush administration. Among many.
One tax solution is to quit the honor thy poor. Income tax on all wages ages 16 to 65. Minimum with no deductibles. Include all social services income, everything. They will for the first have skin in the game and need to pay attention.
I had to laugh at the two garbage cans a week going down to one....try one a month with room to spare for the garbage you pick up off the streets where you walk.
Get a grip folks. Your world is what you make of it.
People here talk about taxes in a reasonably rational manner,however I have yet to see any discussion of the selective enforcement of the federal tax laws...or the undue influence of the extremely wealthy.Anyone else remember Feingold's plan to restrict the inheritance tax to estates in excess of $100mm and how quickly it got shot down?
"The border was another 'oversight' by the Bush administration. Among many."
Oh GLOD! Give it a rest already. I hate Dickhead and his pet chimp, but that problem goes back sooooooo far.....to type that is just the height of ignorance.
Nostrovia,
/cr/tard writes:
Prison bloat of course is a huge waste of money across the whole country, mostly due to the ridiculously transparent DGN drug laws. If states have to start unloading minor offenders to slash costs anyone care to weigh in on odds of pot legalization in US? we legalized alcohol in GD1.
/cr/tard | 02.16.09 - 7:57 pm | #
Wouldn't this increase unemployment?
Moe Howard,
Most Americans pay more in payroll tax than income tax
Tom Stone writes:
"...however I have yet to see any discussion of the selective enforcement of the federal tax laws..."
A government of laws, not of men, would be a good start. Of course, you would need rational laws. The stupid nanny tax could be the first to go.
Give Kalifornia back to the Mexicans, it's doomed anyway
I voted NO on every bond measure last time around - even for programs I favor. If you want the program, tax me! and I'll vote for it.
Most Americans pay more in payroll tax than income tax
EvilHenryPaulson
Income tax deductions cut a lot to zero.
SM Landlord,that is SO 20th century...
The stalemate is a direct result of Prp 13's rule that a super majority of 2/3s is needed to pass a budget.
joe shmoe | 02.16.09 - 8:02 pm | #
Calling Bullshit on joe.
They can pass a spending budget anytime with a simple majority.
What they cannot do is increase taxes without a 2/3rds supermajority.
If the simple majority had restrained spending for the last dozen years, California would not be in this mess.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"Most Americans pay more in payroll tax than income tax"
I don't know about most, but certainly many. A sizable minority pay negative income tax - they actually get paid.
BondsofSteel,
"Wouldn't this increase unemployment?"
Prison guards are a surly lot of mercenaries, but rather few in number.
Nostrovia,
Shouldn't you be worrying about 20-30% unemployment in vancouver by next year?
//Most Americans pay more in payroll tax than income tax
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.16.09 - 8:17 pm | #//
OT - SEK to USD = 8.6239
!!!
Revenue shortfalls are going to be harder to fill than legislators expect.
Each time state governments increase taxes (sales/gas/etc), it will be countered by a larger than expected pullback by consumers. It is distinctly possible that taxes in some states are already so onerous that future tax hikes will lead to reduced revenue.
I wonder if state politicians are aware of this as they come up with their revenue projections. I suspect not.
The next chapter in this miniseries will be much more interesting than the last.
With the passage of StimPac I, hasn't the taxpayer ratio gone below 50%?
With the passage of StimPac I, hasn't the taxpayer ratio gone below 50%?
evelyn woods graduate | 02.16.09 - 8:22 pm | #
In Cali, yep. That's why the spending propositions always pass. "It's not my money!"
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"Prison guards are a surly lot of mercenaries, but rather few in number."
Wasn't Obama muttering something about a build-up in Afghanistan?
Hmmm...
OT - SEK to USD = 8.6239
Speed | 02.16.09 - 8:21 pm | #
-----
What is it usually?
Thread muzak for O/T shipping commentary:
YouTube - Nick Cave - The Ship Song
C
sm_landlord,
"I don't know about most, but certainly many. A sizable minority pay negative income tax - they actually get paid."
Yes, but those of us "lucky" enough to see (take home pay)=0.5(gross pay), fortnightly or so, need to pay there fair share.
Nostrovia,
OT - SEK to USD = 8.6239
Speed | 02.16.09 - 8:21 pm | #
What is it usually?
yagij
8.6238
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
Try this, idled fleet reaches 800k TEU, almost 7% of the world fleet:
New Railfax shows most measures reached the intermediate peak I predicted last week and are starting to show another downturn.
It seems like we're moving from credit panic into the genuine demand destruction phase now.
13 week charts haven't even changed their downhill slope appreciably from the credit panic recovery and we're headed into the next trough.
Lumber and wood products are still showing a general uptick. I imagine this will conclude in the next survey period.
SEK last summer was 5.5 to a dollar. Also, the euro is inching closer to $1.25
I honestly think if housing goes back to 200 levels it would not be unrealistic to take Cali government spending back to the same dollar level to break even. If it goes father, well you get the idea Fugly.
For those that don't follow this:
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
If the simple majority had restrained spending for the last dozen years, California would not be in this mess.
NorkaWest | 02.16.09 - 8:19 pm | #
Hear here!
Just the usual GOP BS in waving wheat country.
From the KC Star:
Below is a statement by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius regarding what she called the Republican refusal to put politics aside in order to solve the state's problems:
"This is a difficult time for Kansas families, seniors, workers and business owners who are dealing each day with the economic challenges presented by this historic recession.
Last week, I called a meeting of the State Finance Council to consider the issuance of a certificate of indebtedness - a routine action dealing with state cash flow, that allows us to move money from one account to another so we can pay our bills on time. The use of these certificates has been approved every year for the last decade.
When the State Finance Council last met in December we reviewed the cash flow patterns for this year and asked for a certificate to cover the remainder of the fiscal year. A majority of legislative council members refused to approve a certificate to adequately meet obligations through the end of February.
Today, the Republican leadership of the legislature told me they would not approve the February certificate, only necessary because of their actions in December, until I sign the 2009 budget bill.
The problem is, due to the slow action by the legislature, the bill has not been delivered to my desk, so I have nothing to sign.
Furthermore, because this bill deals with hundreds of millions of dollars affecting almost every Kansan - once it is delivered - it would be prudent for me to review it thoroughly with my staff to make sure there are no errors in the text of the bill, as there have been in the past.
The certificate deals with cash flow and as legislative leaders all know, it has nothing to do with the revised 2009 budget. We will need a certificate to make our monthly payments, whether or not the budget work is completed.
This political game the Republican leaders are playing affects real Kansas families.
The state cannot pay tax refunds to families who are waiting for money they need to pay rent and utilities. State employee paychecks, due this Wednesday, are now in jeopardy. Payments to health care providers and school payments, due this month, could be delayed.
Through their refusal to act today, the Republican legislative leadership is jeopardizing our citizens' pocketbooks for no other reason than to play political games - games in which the only ones set to lose are Kansas families, workers and schools."
They've signed a transfer EVERY year since 1999!
The future for America and Americans - pick a healthy fiscal state to live with good services. There's about 8 - 10 at most
Hint #2 - they are all BLUE States
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Not suggesting who should pay what proportion of taxes, I just think the payroll tax in America (and it's Employment Insurance premium counterpart in Canada) should be abolished. Negative distortion: encourages contractor status, hurdle borne by smaller businesses.
What I do know is that it is not feasible to maintain government revenues if all incomes were taxed at the same rate.
The work for welfare idea comes off as appealing, but I believe Australia brought it in under the John Howard government to no particular success.
If the simple majority had restrained spending for the last dozen years, California would not be in this mess.
But deficits don't matter.
And it's the fault of all those savers like China!
"Hint #2 - they are all BLUE States"
Hint #3 - (Guessing) Net Federal inflows > Net Federal Outflows.
Nostrovia,
Oh EHP!
This Hellenic Shipping News thing has scrapping reports! I love you so much!
SEK now at 8.6526
It's a remarkably fast change in just minutes.
Gold also just spiked. What's going on today with currencies?
Hint #4 They all love the Kos.
Byzantine_Ruins
Of course it does, that's going to be an important and large part of the shipping market in the near future.
It was interesting to see scrapping drop off along with the lease rates. High commodity prices boosted lease rates, but low commodity prices reduced the value of scrapping the boat all the while loans were outstanding.
Gold also just spiked. What's going on today with currencies?
Define spike? how much?
"JJL writes:
I am sure Arnold is thinking right now "But things always work out in my movies!""
I bet Arnold is thinking "screw California I'm moving back to Austria". Arnold's about to get rickrolled.
Gee, this doesn't sound good, does it?
"Wouldn't this increase unemployment?
BondsOfSteel"
Not technically. Since they would not collect unemployment, which is how we pretend unemployment is so low. It would put the burden of housing and feeding them on their families instead of on the tax payer. Not a perfect solution of course, but neither was locking up 1Million people for non-violent crimes. Of course many of these black men could probably do light construction, but then you have to send the mexicans home, and that makes people sad.
And did I mention that it gets a little breezy there about 360 days a year?
Wyoming | 02.16.09 - 7:57 pm | #
They didn't name it 'Wind River' for nothing... or 'Thunder Basin' for that matter [was chased off Cloud Peak a few times myself].
Ok.. how many of you are trying to quit korea now? And stop buying the USD too, it isn't exactly safe.
CA budget deal is full of gimmicks still...borrowing from the lottery is one gimmick and it has to go to the voters!
Such a key assumption is fraught with peril in leaving it up to the voters who are tightening their belts.
Lots of cattle operations that are very marginal. Mostly owned by very rich folks who are hobby ranchers and do not run them for profit.
I would be curious to know how many of these "ranches" are in reality tax havens, purposely run at a loss.
Anon:
Gold per Kitco
Bid/Ask \t 942.70 \t - \t 944.80 \t \t \t Low/High \t 936.40 \t - \t 946.40
Arnold's about to get rickrolled.
/cr/tard | 02.16.09 - 8:41 pm | #
Rick Perry is Cali bound? Makes sense as Hutcheson is going to make BBQ out of him.
I would be curious to know how many of these "ranches" are in reality tax havens, purposely run at a loss.
billable houris
Ted Turner, Buffalo, loss plus profit.
Looks like about 4% change in SEK just today. That's not normal.
Looks like about 4% change in SEK just today. That's not normal.
They are crashing along with HK , the good news is the dollar is stronger.
8.7 - wow.
"Grandpa: What was this thing called school that you say kids used to have to go to?"
"Looks like about 4% change in SEK just today. That's not normal."
Sweden Cuts Key Rate to 1%; Won’t Rule Out Zero Rates (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Yawn. Dumb money.
When Jews hoard more money than they need as they are currently doing in America, there is less money circulating for everyone else.
Jews want people to 'shop till they drop' in their Jew-owned retail stores, but with so many Americans just barely getting by with the basics they have no money left over for other things. Thus with their incessant hoarding, coupled with their refusal to pay the despised goyim a decent living wage, Jews are undermining the very economy which made them the wealthiest ethnic minority in America.
Scrap the payroll tax and increase the tax on imported oil.
The 1% news came out last week. Delayed reaction doesn't make sense.
"We are a think tank in the front lines. They are bureaucrats who in most cases have never failed in business. I have failed more times that Walt Disney - and succeeded a few too. They are about to fail big time. Let's bring the survival list to the table.
You are welcome to up the anti now. (on our behalf).
KR | 02.16.09 - 7:46 pm |"
That we are a think tank, but we should use our collective minds to solve the root causes of our problems. I am constantly working on taking down sectors such as the banking cartel, the Fed, the medical industrial complex, and generally causing the entire system to be reset to zero, a base from which we can establish sound governing and monetary principals established under the Constutition.
Dark Side of the Rainbow
YouTube -
FX?
"furloughing 200,000 state workers at least one day a month"
We live at Donner Lake just east of Donner Pass (7200 + ft). California will be in a heap of trouble if CalTrans can't keep the snow off the roads - north, south and east west.
Hwy 80 has been closed to trucks and I5 at both ends of the state have been closed due to snow conditions.
You can't imagine the amount of truck traffic over Donner Pass until you see the miles of trucks backed up installing chains or waiting for the snow to be removed and visibility improve. We are watching the weather to make a dash back to Donner from Belmont. Even with light snow the road is treacherous. Add wind and heavy snow it is impossible.
Good Luck All.
At times it sounds like KFI in here tonight and just as ill-informed. Note - Cali does require a 2/3 supermajority to pass a budget. regardless of tax increases. Second - Prop 13 is what got us here along with the lack of forward thinking to flatten out sptending increases during flush times. Third - the irony is that it is the very same just cut spending 30% damn the consequences crowd which is the small minority in the capitol holding the budget up. They are the same ones who don't value public education and want to do draconian measures like dismantling an already overcrowded college system which used to the best in the nation before endless cycles of budget cuts began. Final thought, sm_landlord - Cali has term limits for legislatures. If your such smart and hardened man of capitalism, run for office with your neat ideas.
I have to give credit to arnold tho. When he opted for cuts, everyone was against him and the public voted against his proposed measures of cutting spending. I blame the voters. They voted all the democrats in, now everyone in Cali is going to take it up the ass. Dam 5% income tax surcharge. i aint buying shiet if this goes through. I'll be cutting my spending with all these dumb tax increases.
i hate me taxes waaaah's: "They voted all the democrats in, now everyone in Cali is going to take it up the ass. "
You named the wrong Party, traitor wormtongue. I hear they don't pay taxes in Hell, so you have that to look forward to.
No. More. Con. Lies.