My question is, what's the over/under on when I get my tax refund?

Every one of the state employees I've talked to said "It won't be me."

The quintessential human delusion.

//Every one of the state employees I've talked to said "It won't be me."
Speed | 02.16.09 - 10:32 pm | #//

What's the alternative? Would they really all show up for work for free?

bobn,

Nice version of Sympathy...bokmarked.

Nostrovia,

The quintessential human delusion.

Hey, why be miserable until you have to?

The real showdown is when the State Police enfoce the order.

California Highway Patrol? Not bloody likely.

The real showdown is when the State Police enfoce the order.
California Highway Patrol? Not bloody likely.
Feckless Ness | 02.16.09 - 10:35 pm | #

California is different.  The CHP are not the same. 

Good grief how do people watch Fox News on a regular basis...Now they've moved on to Obama being on "vacation" the past two days and his fear mongering, trying to say the economy is bad...Yeah, he made it all up, everything is fine...

Barley - pensions and entitlements are contractual obligations. They can't be "abolished." When a bargaining group's contract expires, it can be renegotiated. Until then, the only other ways out are bankruptcy or negotiated concessions. Nobody's talking concessions that I've heard.

Arnie - The posturing makes me wince. If you were serious you would
1. Abolish all pensions and entitlements
2. Suspend all welfare checks
Barley | 02.16.09 - 10:37 pm | #

Man that is some sweet, sweet crack you are smoking.

Feckless Ness writes:
Barley - pensions and entitlements are contractual obligations. They can't be "abolished." When a bargaining group's contract expires, it can be renegotiated. Until then, the only other ways out are bankruptcy or negotiated concessions. Nobody's talking concessions that I've heard.

Well, you can always start paying them in company scrip . . .

Hubby turned it on, I think he's shooting for angry sex tonight...

california will legalize it right away unless the fed gov bails out the state

Did you let the prisoners out yet in CA?

Hasn't made the news, so no.

love em or hate em, at least Arnold has the balls to take tough steps to try and crack a near insurmountable challenge. CA is going to lose these jobs no matter what as the economy shrinks and finds a new equilibrium. we're not going back to the days of the drunken debt spending party so rip the bandaid off now and get busy with getting things back on a more even footing.

Maybe California should start selling sand to the Arabs to help solve their budget debacle.

crispy&cole writes:
PSgirl - not yet.

Well turn them loose and you will have money to pay the people.

BTW, Dow futures have somewhat recovered:

Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC.com

Feckless Ness - I might suggest you read up on Hobbs. In the end the State owns everything.

A State can make rules and then re-make the rules. It has nothing to do about contracts or obligations. A States's will, will prevail.

If your name is Sarah Connor and you are employed with the state of CA, you should start looking for a new job.

You're worried about a fucking budget now?
Anonymous | 02.16.09 - 10:46 pm | #

Why would I worry?  My state has a ballanced budget and no housing collapse, yet.

PSgirl - In cased you missded my comment - you can also play oil futures (well sort of) thru an EFT in Toronto - HOU.to tracks the NYSE contracts

I don't see what has dennigers panties in a bunch.  (The problem with always sounding apocalyptic is that nobody believes you when the apocalypse comes.)

BTW, Dow futures have somewhat recovered:
PSgirl | 02.16.09 - 10:45 pm | #
-----
However, the odd correlation of gold & USD continues.  Gold is up 1%.  USD is up 1.5%.

Barley - the State of California is not going to disregard the entire body of contract law. The ramifications for commerce would be catastrophic.

Barack Obama's that good...
anonymous | 02.16.09 - 10:48 pm | #

LOL! Nice...

How can a State file for bankruptcy?

Good question. Has it ever happened?

In California, if a city wants to file for bankruptcy, it must get permission from the state.

Anybody know what the process is for a state? Although, it seems unlikely as long as Unky Sam has cash to dole out.

Barley,

I LOVE Calvinball.

Nostrovia,

CA is not going to go TU. Move along. This is brinksmanship played to the last minute.

FFDIC,

Oh, there's plenty of us here watching this thing...

Nostrovia,

if we focus on what Denninger wrote and watch what is happening closely.
FFDIC | 02.16.09 - 10:54 pm | #

Link to futures that are causing heartburn?  I can't find anything that is in excess of, say, last Q's moves.  TIA.

Gold vertical again.
PSgirl | 02.16.09 - 10:48 pm | #

Check the chart's scale, please.

Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope

Color me stupid b/c I had to look up Calvinball

Seems like it's going to be a rough ride thru market opening Tuesday. Unless of course something else hellish pops up CR...
FFDIC | 02.16.09 - 10:54 pm | #
-----
I concur with FFDIC.

It may be a total Nothingburger, but right now, it does seem like it popped out of no where.

Here's a likely cause of the currency dislocation we're seeing:

Korea Bank Funding Costs Rise to Record on Woori Woes

The cost for South Korean banks to borrow dollars in the swap market rose to a record after Woori Bank decided not to redeem $400 million in bonds and sought $1.4 billion in state funding.

Moody's Investors Service said on Feb. 13 that the lender's decision not to exercise an option for early repayment of 2014 debt will roil investors, who expect borrowers to repay callable securities at the first opportunity. Woori, South Korea's second-biggest bank, plans to raise more than 2 trillion won ($1.4 billion) from a state-backed recapitalization fund.

The one-year cross-currency swap rate on the won slumped to a record minus 1.6 percent today from 1.3 percent yesterday, before trading at minus 1.1 percent. The gauge of availability of dollar funding, which averaged 3.3 percent last year before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed, may decline to minus 2 percent by March, said Choi Seok Won, head of research with Samsung Securities Co. A minus figure shows borrowers of dollars need to make interest payments.

“We see no sign of an end to global crisis," Choi said. “Banks, companies and state agencies are finding it harder to get dollar funding."

How can a State file for bankruptcy?

Good question. Has it ever happened?
Feckless Ness | 02.16.09 - 10:52 pm | #

There were state bond defaults in the 1840s following the canal building boom then bust.

I LOVE Calvinball.
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 10:54 pm | #

Not so much fun in high, international finance, I think.

Poor is the New black - and another 49K released next week....in CA

NorkaWest writes:
Gold vertical again.
PSgirl | 02.16.09 - 10:48 pm | #

Check the chart's scale, please.

A $10.00 move is not relevant?

Blackhalo writes:
How can a State file for bankruptcy?
metabear | 02.16.09 - 10:47 pm | #

I think is called default. Pensioners do not like it so much.

States do not go bankrupt. They can restructure debt, but there is no law governing that process. Counties and municipalities, however, can file for Ch.9 (which traces its roots back to GD1)

Any idea what Denniger is freaking out over?

Gold vertical again.

A $7 rise is almost meaningless.

Please alert me if it rises $100.

bgates - you can dissolve a legal entity (government, special district, corporation, etc.) without going bankrupt. Likewise, you can go bankrupt without dissolving the entity. One's about the entity's structure and the other's about its finances.

bloomberg;

Stop-Loss Orders

The euro’s decline against the dollar and the yen accelerated after stop losses on investors’ long positions on the currency were activated, said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Pte in Singapore.

“The stop losses were probably around $1.2720 and $1.2700 n euro-dollar and about 116.80 in euro-yen,” Lee said. A stop loss is an automatic instruction to sell a currency should it reach a particular level. A long position is a bet an asset will rise.

Any idea what Denniger is freaking out over?

Nothing from what I can see. Maybe his ISP bill came due and he needs more subscibers.
.

CA is not going to go TU. Move along. This is brinksmanship played to the last minute.
Barley | 02.16.09 - 10:54 pm | #

Yup. It always comes down to someone elses furniture. LOL

Sen. Abel Maldonado has become a popular guy around the Capitol as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders on Monday continued to court him as the potential 27th Senate vote for the state budget.

The Santa Maria Republican told reporters Monday outside his office that his list of demands includes four things.
Maldonado wants two items sure to be unpopular with his colleagues. He wants a law passed so the state would stop paying lawmakers if they do not approve the budget on time. He also wants a ban on legislative pay raises and per diem increases in years when California faces a budget deficit. An independent board, the California Citizens Compensation Commission, currently sets legislative pay.

And he threw in one last item: remove the pork spending from the budget package. He didn't specify what qualified as pork, but leaders already have provided small sweeteners for various members to help win their support, such as $35 million annually for Orange County, where Sen. Lou Correa lives. Maldonado also wants to block state Controller John Chiang from spending $1 million on new office furniture, something Chiang's office said was approved before Chiang was elected.

Well, I guess that the reality is that I will have to find some new employment soon, and it looks like the Sandbox or the FDIC- I have no idea which is worst.

So FFDIC, any thoughts on how to get hired, or is there a contractor that it would be better to work for than the main show?

This is turning into one dang ugly downturn fast. We are doing 20% layoff at the State of Arizona piecemeal, rather than in one whack.

Someday this war's gonna end...

What is wrong with renting or bandoing?
Elvis | 02.16.09 - 11:04 pm | #

Gonna have to bump you up +1 for that.

WSJ: Japan's finance minister said he will resign after passage of various budget bills to take responsibility for his behavior at a G-7 press conference.

Too much sake!

Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes:
Again, government employee pay is a contractual obligation. There's a labor contract in place. It's not going to change during the term of the contract unless both parties agree, or the contract is set aside in court.

At this point, I'd like to thank whoever recommended Mancur Olson to me. I know it was someone here.

Reading rumours this has been slipped into the stimulus bill.

The bill has already passed Congress. It shouldn't be rumor at this point, but I'm not going to read 1000 pages to find out either.

403...

Not sure you can really pin this one on Arnold.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 10:31 pm | #

Arnold has finger prints on it too...

Speed are you pumping AU or something?

Hoops, not yet, but I can feel the Legislature acting crazier and crazier, and our new Gov is not inspiring much confidence either.

We just did an 18% layoff a week ago Friday- 138 in our department. Not temp, not paycut, just whack and goodbye.

That is supposed to be enough to hold only until July 1. As an economist for this madhouse, I can tell you that we will be down to a skeleton crew very shortly, having never staffed up in the last decade in our department.

Hence my apprehension.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Any idea what Denniger is freaking out over?
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.16.09 - 11:03 pm | #
----
It seems like a stretch, but the line of thinking is:

South Korean bank skips on repayment of 400 million USD deciding it was cheaper to pay the interest penalty than refinance it or pay it off.  It will also need ~1.2 billion USD equivalent to help it continue handling its operations/debt load.  This movement causes a stir among Asian market forces and causes stop-loss transactions to fire and Euros are liquidated which were left as part of the Yen carry trade.  Euro gets hit and everything the Euro touches/supports gets hit. 

Where it goes from this point to Eastern Europe Gets Into Default, I'm having a hard time making the connection.  The only thing I can think of is if the spread between the Euro and its Eastern European currencies gets wider then the risk of default of country specific debt becomes more realistic along with Austria having to admit that its banking system is in the gutter and no printing press to easily bail it out.

How's that for a line of thought?

Finds of Radioactive Steel on the Rise in Germany

WTF?!

The 400 CR-ometer reading here at this hour says something. I'm just not sure what. Damn it.
This is sooo going to screw up the late-night thread.

please point to the solvent state that will be able to competitively out bid CA for professors in the middle of a depression.

Many CSU professors already have backup skills lined up. One I know owns a gym, another I know does private investigator services, yet another does security consulting... I know of yet two more that do carpetwork and welding... Because they underpaid them badly to begin with, they've got an unusual situation where their professors are ready able and willing to just convert to more economic pursuits. This isn't true for much of the humanities, but I know too many CSU profs with trade skills...

Barley--thanks for the ETF suggestion. I will look into it.

Gotta love Rachael Maddow:

"I don't speak Japanese, but I speak Hammered, and that guy was hammered"

How's that for a line of thought?
yagij | 02.16.09 - 11:15 pm | #
-----
To push this string along:

The fear may be that Europe reinforces this ripple when it opens its doors today and becomes an echo chamber of whatever has Asia spooked.  If the Europeans catch whatever Hong Kong & Tokyo are sneezing, it could setup a grand stand-off between many in the EU who have been enjoying an long session of prisoner's dilemma between all of the bad backs between them.

If Europe shrugs it off, it is a nothingburger for today, but if Europe builds up momentum on that snowball, who knows.

I though government spending would save us from this depression? So why isn't the Fed pushing for state bailouts?

The Lorax | 02.16.09 - 11:15 pm | #

It would destroy want little remains of our Federal system.  If the states are totally dependent in the Federal government for funding, then we would stop all pretenses of being a Federal republic of sovereign states.

/rant.
\t vetch | \t \t \t \t02.16.09 - 11:20 pm | #

vetch, thank you.  a few too many people here tonight spend a little too much time in front of the computer and have indeed become disconnected.

/cr/tard writes:
"Many CSU professors already have backup skills lined up."

I'd say good luck to them, and then hire from the tens of thousands of super smart graduates the ivys turn out each year at half price.

Problem: Wages are too low for CSUS professors, attracting bad talent or no viable alternative talent.

Step 1: Halve wages of CSUS professors, down to 25k or so per year
Step 2: When they quit, hire super-smart ivy league graduates for that price to replace them

You seem to have an acute grasp of the situation and what needs to be done to realistically solve our higher education problems. I'll fax your plan to the governor immediately.

Our professors are highly qualified.

Fun fact: One CSUS professor had a stroke mid-lecture and began rambling incoherently for the remaining half hour of his class. The students only realized something was wrong when he wandered out of the classroom without taking his belongings.

"Deflation is not the same thing as hitting the restart button on you video game console. Furthermore, with our species facing the limits of growth, a collapsed social structure is not going to have an easy time re-establishing itself without cheap energy input.

I'm of the camp we should salvage whatever pieces of institutional order we can cobble together less we fall to the whims of armed militias, street gangs, and christo-fascists thugs. But maybe I'm just a dad who wants a survivable and terror free future for my daughters. Not that that's important or anything.

/rant.
vetch | 02.16.09 - 11:20 pm |"

All this I'm counting on, especially the social structure part.

What Americans really need is a red hot economic poker shoved strait up their asses in order to wake them up.

No more Agenda 21, no more Fed, No more IRS and Income Tax.

All this shit happening now is why I was an organizer for a Ron Paul group. I tried to wake you fuckers up but you wouldn't listen. Now you get what you deserve.

WOW.

China Record Loans Diverted to Stocks, Shenyin Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

as I suspected since January, someone must be fueling that China bubble. I mean despite all of the horrific news their stock exchange kept going up & up, similar to Maddoff's returns.
Now, the question of the day, will those companies run out of funds to support their stocks or will their business recover before the reality hits the fan.

Our school district is looking at laying off 15% of its staff for next year AND taking a pay freeze to retain a skeleton crew in the libraries, maintenance and operations and support staff. We've been hit with declining enrollment for a decade due to zero growth limits, unaffordable housing and aging residents.
vetch | 02.16.09 - 11:20 pm | #

Absolute bullshit of the highest order and exactly why California is in trouble.  Next we'll probably hear the lie that California is 47th in per pupil spending.  Yawn. 

/rant.
vetch | 02.16.09 - 11:20 pm | #

At what cost do we prop up a failed system. How far forward do we handicap our children to cover the gap? Should we act in haste to save a few homes that will just be in jeopardy in another year or two?

I'm not insensitive to these greater issues, but I refuse to burden my children with the sins of a few.

It's not the moves - they're small, relatively. It's the speed and synchronicity that's remarkable.

The aggregate sum of 1% moves across the various asset classes is somewhat disconcerting - that is a pretty massive wad of cash. The real key will be market open in Europe - if they catch the big mo - it could get ugly.

Yopparai ga ii wake de...

Japan Finance Chief Nakagawa Resigns in Blow to Aso (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

This is what that retard denniger is getting hyper over.
IVannaHumpaLot | 02.16.09 - 11:20 pm | #

Technical Analysis: LOL!

The total size of the four major files is over 100MB, and consists of 1419 pages. Three of the four files are huge "scanned" PDFs, meaning they were created by printing the original document and then scanning it in again --- and therefore contain no real "text" that can be easily searched. This will make our parsing process difficult and more time consuming, so we most likely won't have our versions ready until midday tomorrow. But we'll see...

ReadTheStimulus.org

Here's a newsflash, NO ONE knows what is in the stimulus package. 1419 pages of what?

No worries. I've lived in California my whole life, including a couple of years in Sacramento.

Those lazy state workers are just overpaid douchebags. You could axe half of them and nobody would notice.

"You could axe half of them and nobody would notice."

Their families would notice. I think the anger and frustration is a bit misdirected.

Here's a newsflash, NO ONE knows what is in the stimulus package. 1419 pages of what?

GPO version does not have scanned pages.

Is IVannaHumpAlot just yanking our change and I missed the satire tags again?

"Dude,

I'm all for the analysis for Ron Paul...I think you mis-categorize me in your twisted black and white world view. I'm all for GLOD and have been very astute in my financial matters using the very same critiques that i guess your are alluding to. But you're lust for some kind of revelation moment for America is a hopeless pipe dream.

Seriously...do you believe that people learn from having hot pokers of suffering shoved up their asses? Why do you take such glee at watching other people suffer? What is it about your psychology that your feeble efforts at convincing americans to vote for a marginal political player somehow gives you the ethical distance to call for the destruction of millions of families ways of life?

Mind you...i can make all the same arguments. I have been for years. Telling family that the american dream was a plastic fantasy. I have a feeling you and i have similar views on the problems that created this crap. But you obviously are too hung up on some cheap "I told you so" smugness to see the real humanity in this situation.

Either that or you're a troll.

It matters not.
vetch | 02.16.09 - 11:38 pm |"

Foe starters,
Here's some educational material for you to educate yourself with before your opinion becomes valid.

The Power of Nightmares, (Part 1/3), “Baby it's Cold Outside“
Politics - The Power of Nightmares, (Part 1/3), “Baby it's Cold Outside“

Worldwide English Sign Up QuickList ( Help Sign In
Loading...UploadVideo File
Quick Capture Search Home Videos Channels Community
Yuri Bezmenov - The KGB and the brain washing of the West
YouTube - Yuri Bezmenov - The KGB and the brain washing of the West

This shit has got to stop one way or another.

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition.

Michael,

As i said earlier, I suspect I have done the same research you have (your link is one I have already visited).

Some of it is useful, some of it isn't.

The main thrust of my point to you, is that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by celebrating the destruction of a society. There may be some good things that come out of it, there may be some horrible things to come out of it, but making the suffering of someone else be some kind of cathartic release for you because it validates your worldview is a very dangerous psychological and emotional place to be in.

Many blessings to you. I Hope you have taken your own advice and prepared by storing food and ammo and gold. But i also hope you grow some heartfelt connections to your community and work with your neighbors to maintain some civility for our species. The way in which you work with some of the very people you disagree with will be how you determine your future.

Best of luck

Absent a complete collapse and reinvention of society (and currency), the only thing that is going to keep people employed is government hiring and currency devaluation through monetization of debt.

The second piece of this is a mystery to me...why is monetization necessary to keep people employed?

If there's political will to keep people employed we can do it at any asset price level. If anything, I think it would be easier to do if we weren't pissing trillions into the bank balance sheet singularities.

o worries, another 30% fall in the median CA SFR this year will work wonders on that one
bgates | 02.16.09 - 11:04 pm | #

When incomes fall by 30% you still have a 10 to 1 price to income ratio. Not much help there.

We have been out looking in houses in the Belmont, San Carlos, Redwood City area and at $500 per sq ft, the price to income ratio for that area is still 10 to 1. I don't know where the income to buy these ordinary houses is going to come from.

I'm genuinely perplexed by your bullshit comment. What exactly was bullshit...
vetch | 02.16.09 - 11:45 pm | #

I understand and I apologize for feeling the need to type so forcefully just to get the issue to the fore.

Our school district is looking at laying off 15% of its staff for next year AND taking a pay freeze to retain a skeleton crew in the libraries, maintenance and operations and support staff. We've been hit with declining enrollment for a decade due to zero growth limits, unaffordable housing and aging residents. Those problems, now compounded by the reduction in ADA funding have left a gaping hole in our budget.

The declining enrollment has a negative correlation with so called zero growth limits.  The "unaffordable housing" is in part a direct consequence of school fees.  Aging residents are positives for school districts.  There's your first three assertions that I absolutely disagree with. 

And before any of you government bashers start licking your lips, our district has been a model on sunshine accounting.

This is trickier.  I don't want/need you to disclose but you have to understand this is the worst sort of appeal to authority.  Without a name you are asserting things no one can refute. 

Sincerely, the CFO has done an excellent job, there is just no fighting the monumental shift that has been hitting us demographically and economically. We've had a spending freeze since the start of the year, no more paper, pencils, etc.

The necessity of a school district having a CFO is in some circles evidence of dysfunction.  Notice however that now you wish to play the other side of the coin.  Demographics are telegraphed way in advance yet you act as if they were a surprise while earlier you took the other tack blaming urban planning policies instead. 

We're looking at many, many families losing their sole income provider. For most of our SEIU employees, they make peanuts, and are primarily taking their low paying teacher support jobs to get an ounce of health care for their family.

Oh plueeze.  SEIU employees making peanuts?  The instigators of prevailing wage and the pay spiral of average comparable scale? 

The kids in our school are starting to fall apart. We've heard of 7 families in the past week that have lost both jobs. Lots of transient housing, family stress boiling over into discipline/behavior problems at school.

And?  Seriously, this is part of your problem with "declining" revenues?

This is the reality. Its rather sick watching some of the scum cheer the downfall of my home and laugh at the destruction of state pensions systems, but you're just whistling past the graveyard. 170 families without income in my community is going to have a multiplier effect to everyone else.

The downfall of  CalPERS and STRS and such are a function of exactly the same dynamics that doomed General Motors.  There's no cheering gravity, mere observing. 

State/municipal employees really have no idea how close the payer class is to open revolt. 

so now all we have to do is get out from under our overpriced house and buy a less expensive one.

Sounds like a plan.

Step 1: call your bank and explain that you are no longer going to be making payments on your overpriced house..

Cheers,
prat

State/municipal employees really have no idea how close the payer class is to open revolt.

Amen, brother.

Cheers,
prat

Oh.. and one more thing..

I'm not trying to ameliorate my fears. I sit with my fears every day...I know them by name.

There is a lot of projection i see people making about who i am and where i am politically because I'm a public employee, which reinforces the point I am making...that the ideology of many of the posters here, clouds their view of the true nature of economic collapse.

Trust me...i know what time it is. I've been plugged into the coming economic collapse since the anti-WTO movement in the 90's. My wife and i have been preparing for ... liberty...if that's what you want to call it, for over a decade. I take my personal and family security seriously, but i am under NO ILLUSIONS about how bad it can get, and I fundamentally prefer a system with a functioning government and at least a semi-legit police force to keep the order. I've worked with gang bangers long enough to know what the alternative is.

Dawg wrote:

"The declining enrollment has a negative correlation with so called zero growth limits. The "unaffordable housing" is in part a direct consequence of school fees. Aging residents are positives for school districts. There's your first three assertions that I absolutely disagree with." 



I’m sorry but your just flat wrong here Dawg. The lack of new developments meant that the developer fees that SOME districts rely upon were not an option for ours (to make up for underfunding of things like special ed for example). Furthermore, new developments tend to generate new young families with kids. This very phenomena is being enjoyed by a neighboring district. In regards to “unaffordable housing”…there is NO local parcel tax in our community. None. Our housing was unaffordable because of the housing bubble. The unnaffordable issue was because people couldn’t carry a 600,000 dollar mortgage, not because they couldn’t carry the property tax (though certainly, that added to it). This demographic shift will reverse as prices drop, again, no complaints…just the facts.

There is also all the prop 13 goodness that created our weird tax funding system that funds districts unequally based upon land assessments from the 1970s (before 90% of this community was built). We have a lower ADA funding than all surrounding districts (again, no complaints, just stating the facts). If you are arguing that people shouldn’t pay taxes for public education, well then…I guess you got me there.

And finally, I wasn’t complaining about aging residents, I was just stating that less young families living in the district = less kids attending the district. That’s just the reality. Again, districts are funded on a per pupil basis, so less kids = less revenue. This is not BAD, just a trend that impacted our budget. We were already going to have some layoffs, but they would have been at about the pace of retirement, so no big deal.

But overall Dawg, you write WAAAAAYY to much into what I was saying in that paragraph. I was simply stating the major factors that were facing the district OUTSIDE of the economic collapse. Many of those factors are not BAD per se (people are just living elsewhere), they just ARE. I brought them up to give a background to this particularly little story. Again, you misinterpreted my statement as a complaint. It wasn’t. Just stating the facts. My complaint wasn’t the SITUATION. My complaint was the way SOME people have ignored the human side of this situation. There are real consequences on the ground. But for the cynics on this board, I suppose its just more fuel for contempt. Everybody hates a loser, right?

Dawg: "
This is trickier. I don't want/need you to disclose but you have to understand this is the worst sort of appeal to authority. Without a name you are asserting things no one can refute." 



I’m not giving my name or locale for obvious reasons. You don’t need to believe it…I don’t need you to believe it.

Dawg:

The necessity of a school district having a CFO is in some circles evidence of dysfunction. Notice however that now you wish to play the other side of the coin. Demographics are telegraphed way in advance yet you act as if they were a surprise while earlier you took the other tack blaming urban planning policies instead. 



Dawg…honestly…do you have any idea of the complexity of a school budget? We have a CFO because the requirements of the Fed and State funding are a frickin’ manhattan project. You do believe in government accountability to taxpayers…right?

And the demographics were studied for a decade before hand thank you. We knew what the numbers were years in advance. We’ve been making cuts every year to ratchet down on schedule. What you don’t understand about our particular situation is that we were already making a 5% cut this year on schedule with declines when the state told us they were going to drop ADA per pupil. That second cut is an additional 10% that our reserves cannot absorb (nor should they). But the budget of a school district has many layers. Though I suppose you knew that.

Dawg:

Oh plueeze. SEIU employees making peanuts? The instigators of prevailing wage and the pay spiral of average comparable scale? 



I don’t know about SEIU outside of schools. Most of my employees in SEIU bargaining unit make $9.50 an hour for a 4 hour day. (most in their 30-s to 50-s) I’d call that peanuts, but I suppose its relative. And just for comparison, rents around here are 1600 for a 3 bedroom. Soooo….$800 a month? Most of what they work for is the Benefits, which they don’t touch unless they’re a 6.5 hour employee and then its only 50%. So…yeah…I guess its peanuts…if you don’t think so, then I guess our metrics are very different. And again, Dawg…you condescension is a bit melodramatic…I deal with teenage girls all day…lets drop it on an adult forum thanks.

Dawg: 
And? Seriously, this is part of your problem with "declining" revenues?



Again, just reporting from the ground, thems numbers is thems numbers...they just have consequences

Dawg:

The downfall of CalPERS and STRS and such are a function of exactly the same dynamics that doomed General Motors. There's no cheering gravity, mere observing. 


Agree in part. I’ve been waiting for that collapse for a while, but not with gleeful anticipation. Along with the ethereal pledges of social security that will vaporize before this is over. We agree on this issue, but still…what’s the point of cheering it on? Really? Teachers do NOT get social security. They don’t get matching 401k plans or stock plans. They get a pension. I am guessing here: I believe you disagree with state backstopping of pensions, and with that issue I would agree with you 100%. But I think you don’t take my bringing up of the pension issue to its conclusion. The loss of retirement benefits is a loss of consumption in the future. It is a loss of economic stability to a large swathe of the boomer class. Stupidly or no, there has been a generation or more of Americans who were raised to believe that if you work hard and follow the rules then you would be rewarded. Of course that is not true. Again, I brought it up because I think people have a really contemptuous

Dawg: State/municipal employees really have no idea how close the payer class is to open revolt.

That may be true for some, but not all Dawg...again, you're making assumptions about what i know and don't know about the taxpaying public. I am well aware of how close we are Dawg...and i've prepared myself. You seem to assume taht all public employees ignorant commies. This may be because you seem to disagree with what we represent ideologically, but I don't know you. What you fail to recognize is that I know the system is fucked too. I'm on the inside and know exactly how it is fucked.

You made a mistake by thinking that my report was somehow an objection to economic realities. It wasn't. It was a report of the local impacts...and a bit of stuff at the end regarding where i think we are going (and my preference for resolution)

Whatever Dawg…

I suspected I’d see you posting in response to my vignette. I offer up these following rebuttals less for your sake than to dispel some of the myths out there…too often I’ve seen people level a bunch of accusations without a response. I didn’t want to let it pass.

Ultimately, I’m guessing that you see the roll of government differently than I do. I suspect you underestimate the downsides of letting it all collapse. You suspect I underestimate the downsides of trying to keep it together. That’s a lot of suspicion.

I’ll see you on the other side. Good luck dawg.

Here's where Robbie Dawg is wrong:

The "unaffordable housing" is in part a direct consequence of school fees. Aging residents are positives for school districts.

Wrong and wrong. Been to Los Angeles much? School fees ain't the reason why Santa Monica, the Marina, Venice, the South Bay, and pretty much everywhere west of the 110 got ridden up to unaffordable levels.

Let's take Redondo Beach, for example. Number one headline in the Beach Reporter this past week for Redondo? "School's budget in limbo and facing massive shortfall" Guess what-- fewer students in RBUSD because? Hey, rising age of residents compared to ten years ago! Who could have guessed? Certainly not the guy who lives up in Ventura.

State/municipal employees really have no idea how close the payer class is to open revolt.

Seriously? Get real. The gas tax could go up $1/gallon and people will still be saying, "well, at least we aren't paying $4 like we did last summer". There is not going to be an "open revolt" because what exactly are people going to do? Not pay their taxes? Howso when their employer cuts their check? Are they going to stop putting gas in their car? Yeah, right. Are they going to stop going to the grocery store? Yeah, right.

Look, the deflation is on, fast and furious in Los Angeles right now. People aren't going to care about taxes going up so long as they still have a job. I know you live on some oversized lot up there in whatever sticks locale, but you need to at least suffer through the KTTV morning news once every so often to get the read of the average chump.

Thanks mark.

best of luck to you.

Cheers ano

I've tried to read through all the comments but ended up more confused... so, what is the deal with this rumor? the sell off in the Asian markets was quite large... and then there was a 2% spike in gold, do I read that right?