David Rosenberg, 02/17/09:
Household net worth down 20% from 2007 peak -- A Fed survey just came out and indicated that household net worth has contracted 20% from the 2007 peak and that people between 55 and 64 have taken the biggest hit: But the belief system on the part of the younger generation has also been shattered in terms of their future expectations of income and wealth have a good hard look at The Legacy of a Crisis: A Risk-Shy Generation. Even so, for people under the age of 40, half of those surveyed have their money in the equity market. Going forward, the majority would put less than half in stocks (as per a Desalles University poll). The article also cites a Charles Schwab official saying that 401(k) participants are not making many big investment moves there is a sense at least some younger investors may divert 401(k) contributions to other uses one sensible way to reduce overall risk is to pay down high-interest debt, like credit cards or private student loans. Pay down debt or buy bonds its all about saving on or capturing future cash flows.
Those who took the biggest hit, people between 55 and 64, are the leading edge of the Baby Doomers. They also happen to be the biggest born-and-bred American dopes and it is not a coincidence. The most thankless job in America is to point out to a genuine born-and-bred American dope that he has been a dope all his life, i.e., he was bred to be a dope in the areas of economics, investments and politics with the most massive propaganda campaign in human history, and the sad situation is unlikely to change until he first comes to terms with the condition and admits to his dearth of knowledge (most of what he knows is from a menu of propaganda). It is a dirty job but someone has to do it for the good
Down 20% and at least 60% more to go! The "net worth" was lot of hot air of asset inflation. Deflation would cure the idiotic beliefs about what the wealth is what it ain't.
"n the first component, I will argue that a key near-term risk for 2009 is further disinflation and possibly deflation. Expectations of deflation for the next five years may feed into real interest rates, driving real rates higher just at the time monetary policy would like to move them lower. The zero bound is constraining ordinary policy responses to this situation, making things worse."
Those who took the biggest hit, people between 55 and 64, are the leading edge of the Baby Doomers. They also happen to be the biggest born-and-bred American dopes and it is not a coincidence.
I personally know three guys, supposedly really well off, who officially retired last summer and fall. Guess what? They are back at their old jobs after only being away a few weeks at most. The reason? Their retirement funds dropped IN HALF with the stock-market tanking. they are somewhat less than happy at being back to the grind. Indefinitely.
Ouch.
Me? As and elderly Gen-X person, I never have had delusions of being able to retire. Work until you can't or until you die...it's the human condition.
For the majority of Americans, their biggest asset is still their house.
What kind of "asset" is a house anyway? A house costs you money every single month, it never pays a dividend, and it is likely to decrease in value significantly over the coming decade especially after states and municipalities increasingly turn to taxing real estate to make ends meet.
Fed analysts estimated that 35.8 percent of the average familys assets in 2007 were in unrecognized capital gains, such as gains in the market value of houses that people had yet to sell. Slightly more than half of those unrecognized gains came from real estate, and the second biggest source was increases in the value of business assets.
Freudian Typo, anyone? "Unrecognized" capital gains should, of course, now be written as "unrecognizable" capital gains... The paper wealth is GONE.
Perhaps in the future the Fed will change the name and start to survey "Producer Finances" instead of "Consumer Finances". The idea that citizens are "consumers" without first and foremost being "producers" has to die sometime.
Also, just to toss a bomb out there regarding Roosevelt/Hoover and how we got out of GD1: is it really "economic growth" if you're just trying to get back to where you were a few years ago? While on the one hand, conditions in 1939 were better than the worst in 1932-33, in some ways they were still worse than the best days of the boom, especially after accounting for population growth. Sort of like New Orleans today vs. before and after Katrina: there has been "growth" after the hurricane, but it's still not like the "good old days"...
America's Baby Doomers were specifically BRED with bad behavior and bad morality to lead to America's doom (collapse of the system as we have known it) and they will succeed in the task they were prepared all their life for.
Sorry if the truth hurts or is not acceptable.
Jas
PS: I am of Doomers' age group and know lots of Doomers. They are genuine born-and-bred American dopes with propaganda belief system. Just think about Limbaugh dopes and Obama dopes. These two are Propagandist-In-Chief.
The only things keepng builders busy right now are filling out builder surveys and transferring all their assets to their wives and kids. Oh and the drinking. How could I forget the drinking?
Buffet is an old man at this point - just because he has been one of the world's richest men for years is no reason to assume he actually knows anything about stocks or how to make money, especially over the long term, which seems to be his espoused strategy. One encompassing the unavoidable fact that in the long term, he will be dead too.
Obviously, having a cool 68 billion dollars (or maybe these days 55 billion, or perish the thought, only 34 billion) to your name leads to only one clear conclusion - Buffet=FAIL.
I retired in March 2000 at the age of 51 and have never looked back and there is no reason to. Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998).
Police: Ohio man held woman captive, read Bible
TOLEDO, Ohio Ohio police say a man held a woman captive in handcuffs and an adult diaper for three days while he read Bible passages to her.
"Obviously, having a cool 68 billion dollars (or maybe these days 55 billion, or perish the thought, only 34 billion) to your name leads to only one clear conclusion - Buffet=FAIL.
Right.
rent_to_own | 02.17.09 - 1:24 pm |"
Malcolmm Forbes already won. He had the most toys when he died. Everyone else is a loser.
I can hear Bob Pisani now (although I don't watch CNBC anymore): "It's simple, really. Our entire economy, markets and gov't are just one big Ponzi Scheme."
Jas, you'll never get anywhere pointing out American exceptionalism. Billions of dollars and man-hours have been required to set up and maintain the propaganda machine.
It will be undone as all expansive systems are undone...from the the inner and inherent flaws contained within itself.
"Unrecognized" capital gains should, of course, now be written as "unrecognizable" capital gains... The paper wealth is GONE. Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:20 pm | #
Bullard from St Louis (most hawkish district) were probably ordered to say that today. Friedman, Keynes and Bernanke on code red. Start the presses.
Wisdom seeker: unemployment in '39? 18%. New Deal they call it. Japan anyone? DDR?
Bullard from St Louis (most hawkish district) were probably ordered to say that today. Friedman, Keynes and Bernanke on code red. Start the presses.
Wisdom seeker: unemployment in '39? 18%. New Deal they call it. Japan anyone? DDR?
--
Builders can't compete with the non-builders! Stop building you dopes!!
Please don't listen to people who have been claiming that the "inventory is [was a year ago] being worked off." There is lot more than 1.6M excess inventory when you take the negative demand into account due to people, say 3-5%, doubling and tripling up due to job losses and other reasons to save money.
Depressions expose bad economists as well as bad behavior on the parts of the leaders and the led (misled).
"Wisdom Speaker writes:
Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:37 pm |"
Jas writes: "Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998)."
Great Jas-hole, it only took 11 years for the equity markets to get back to the levels they were in 1998. I've been hearing you spew your BS for over a decade and you would have bankrupted anyone who listened to you. Thankfully I didnt and increased my nest egg 5-fold since 1998 - inlcuding being up about 20% last year.
You are a broken clock.
Speaking from experience - outside of professional sports teams the ivy league is the second greatest short... (stole the sports short from Julian Robertson)
Elvis writes:
What about the Ivy League schools. Here are my commments -- "Overpriced. Overrated. Hurting Endowments."
By late this morning doors were locked and the lobby was filled with people including uniformed officials.
"A sign posted on the doors read: "We are temporarily closed; the company is still in operation but under the management of a receiver. For updated information please visit our Web site at www.stanfordfinancialreceivership.com."
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
"RockyR writes:
Maybe we're going to see another big U-shape (W-shape) on the Dow like we did last week...
RockyR | 02.17.09 - 1:48 pm |"
Too much bad news not priced in yet.
However, Cramer showed us how the market is manipulated and rigged, so up is possible but not likely. The trend is still Dow. The Dow is a lagging indicator due to the manipulation.
Viable auto industry crucial - White
Feb 17, (Reuters) -
The White House said it was crucial for the United States to have a strong and viable auto industry, and it would study the survival plans of General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC due to be submitted on Tuesday.
No change. let's overproduce cars by 2mm annually, is how i read this.
\tI'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom? Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | #
100 pts or so and we take out the bottom of the dotcom crash.
Jes writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
it's gonna take 2-3yrs to get past the horizontal part of the L-shaped equity markets that we are now i
"Jes writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | "
The last time the Dow made a low was armageddon. It's still armagedon.
"A sign posted on the doors read: "We are temporarily closed; the company is still in operation but under the management of a receiver. For updated information please visit our Web site at www.stanfordfinancialreceivership.com." crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:50 pm | #
I have a feeling this one is going to hit a lot more people less well-off than the Madoff crowd. That sucks.
I retired in March 2000 at the age of 51 and have never looked back and there is no reason to. Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998).
Be Safe! (From the financial Crooks).
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:26 pm | #
What a coincidence. I left the markets for bonds in August 1998 after the currency crisis and the LTCM debacle.
Given the level of risk I assumed since that time, my returns stand up pretty well against the stocks markets, even with dividends included, I think.
Once the Fed openly started talking about buying up the long end of the bond market, I fled the scene and locked in CD rates over the next 5 years.
The operative principle here is to abandon any market when it becomes obvious that the government is manipulating it. Nothing good will come of that, at least not for people like us.
Probably should have gotten into gold several years ago, but now, it's too late. Would like to diversify even more into non-dollar denominated holdings, but the anarchist/socialist in me says that this crisis is going to respect no borders, it is going to wreak havoc across the entire global capitalist system.
Maybe, the best solution is to plow up my back yard and start growing vegetables and fruit. The soil is of very good quality where I live (about 2 miles from the Sacramento River) , and the area was a center of Japanese American truck farming in the 1930s.
Jes(Unrated) writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief.
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom? Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | #
Many of us are just confounded by the "rally" since Oct. 2008.
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief.
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:58 pm | #
I think I am beginning to burn out on Doom. It is getting harder and harder to come back and read.
I'd try posting more but cannot compete with a lot of the posters here. The insight and knowlege posted here is amazing. The political ranting is a turn off but I keep coming back to sift through the garbage and find what good advice I can.
I think we may have slow capitulation, not based on today's performance, but over-all, sellers over buyers looks like 401k/IRA money being pulled out of the market--selling looks like index funds. This may have legs after-all. Let's see how institutional investors do without investors.
I have 25% of my money left in the market and would like to move it to cash. Not sure if a close below DOW 7553 means move to 100% cash or wait until the market bounces off that number. I have been doing well but confused right now....
Just days before Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was scheduled to lay out his much-anticipated plan to deal with the toxic assets imperiling the financial system, he and his team made a sudden about-face.
According to several sources involved in the deliberations, Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers.
--
BREEDING DOPES HAS BEEN THE MOST PROFITABLE ACTIVITY IN AMERICA FOR THOSE SEEKING MONEY, POWER AND SEX.
Free market in action! (Once you have done away with traditions and moral restraints).
For those who want more money, power and sex, get out of Dopeland and join Gangistan, a place where propagandists are in high demand and are well rewarded. For example, I was watching Obama on BOOK TV rebroadcast after the Election of 2004 (when he was nothing more than a junior Senator) at George Washington U and he was signing books after the talk. There was a young tall good-looking blonde who was getting a book signed and Obama asked her if she had any Hill Experience (he didnt ask that question of any other woman, or any man, who got a book signed before this one) with an eye to get her on the Hill and he kept looking at her after he was done signing and the next one was waiting. One part of being a US Senator, no matter how old or what color, is have lots of young women staffers to do. Yes, yes, American economic and political crooks, or gangsters, have developed a good system for themselves. Ambitious men in America, including the Corporate Crooks, try to be part of American Gangistan. The rest must live in Dopeland and bitch.
Breeding bad behavior and immorality always has consequences. The bill is coming due for Americas ruling elite led by BFNYC.
Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers.
Basel Too
I wonder if he came to that conclusion on his own or if his boss helped.
"green writes:
I have 25% of my money left in the market and would like to move it to cash. Not sure if a close below DOW 7553 means move to 100% cash or wait until the market bounces off that number. I have been doing well but confused right now....
green | 02.17.09 - 2:03 pm |"
The Dow bounced bounced back to 9000+ from it's previous low once, not likely twice. Market holding for Obama's signature, then sell on the news.
The Catholic church granting indulgences smacks of a pardon for the "spiritual" among the elite who have a conscience and understand the harm their personal enrichment commits against humankind.
Or maybe the church is replenishing their coffers because they've been hurt in this economic catastrophe.
Just a random comment on those infamous double-leveraged ETFs:
The S&P 500 is now about 50 points from its bear-market low of 741.02 in November. That's a net rise of 6.7% over the past few months.
If the double-inverse effect lasted more than intraday, and the SP500 double-inverse ETF, SDS, actually tracked 2x the inverse of the S&P 500, then SDS should be sitting about 13.4% below its bear-market high from November. But SDS is currently trading near 86.40 versus a bear market high of 130.
In other words, had you bought SDS during the October and/or November plunges and held it (expecting a lower low down the road), you'd have lost as much as 1/3 of your investment!
The same issues plague SRS (now trading near 76 vs. highs over 280), SKF, and other double-inverse ETFs.
This is significant here because I have some illiquid 529 plan investments in the SP500 which I have been trying to hedge out somehow. It's easier and requires less capital to do this by buying SDS than by shorting the S&P500 or trading options. But the double-inverse effect is only short-term, and one has to get the timing right for the sell.
SDS paid off a significant short term cap gain distribution at the end of last year, think about $11 a share. I understand your point about them not being good trading vehicles, (I'm only in them because I got BANNED from short selling by the loser SEC) but SDS isn't quite as bad as you make it out to be.
Wisdom Speaker writes:
Just a random comment on those infamous double-leveraged ETFs:
What were the capital gains paid from these ETF's? Do you know? When? How much? Trends, trends, trends and trends is what matters with the leveraged ETF's. You could of bought SRS for $65 in early 07, held until late last year, drew capital gains out and saw a 450% gain. Wisdom speaker my ass.
Sounds like the name of a new porn movie, but it is the the headline on CNN business right now. Just hope next week it doesn't say "Stimulus: Getting behind the hard part."
Actually, perhaps the most telling line from the WaPo article on Geithner's flameout was this one:
Meanwhile, the sources said, Obama's senior economic advisers were hobbled in crafting the plan by a shortage of personnel. To date, the president has not nominated any assistant secretaries or undersecretaries at the Treasury, and the handful of mid-level staffers who have started work were still finding their offices and getting their building passes and BlackBerrys.
I could understand if the President hadn't nominated some of the undersecretaries, but not nominating any of the team to run Treasury, a full month into the administration, is really BAD.
How does Obama expect to win this thing without a full team on the field?
Or perhaps... have Geithner and Summers been set up to fail? (I mean by Obama's team, not by the markets or economy.)
We know Geithner is damaged goods (comes from the group that missed the crisis brewing, dodged taxes, and now apparently he can't put together a plan even with a head start)... is he a fall guy?
I'm only in them because I got BANNED from short selling by the loser SEC
None of my business, of course, but... really? Personal enforcement action against you, or a policy enforced against you by a brokerage firm that you otherwise don't want to leave?
Again, not trying to pry, but am interested in your situation...
"Hoopajoops LTD writes:
The FDIC just seized popular finance blog Calculated Risk and blanked the front page. Shiela!!! DAMN YOU!!!
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 2:18 pm |"
They don't like the results of our think tank. But can they shut down HaloScan. Don't close your HS window.
Note as well that Gordon Brown is under great pressure in the UK - he's their former SecTreas equivalent and now Prime Minister. And Japan just flushed its finance minister as well.
A housecleaning of "failed leadership" among the G7/G20 is probably necessary to restore market confidence. It would also fit in with the "prepare for nationalization/preprivatization/reprivatization theme".
I'd just like to say that the kinds of problems America will be facing now...are not the kinds of problems that will be corrected by the financiers or by Obama or by the Congress or by the bearded man in the sky...the lives of people will have to be reworked from the ground up. I don't think my sorry ass spoiled generation is up to that kind of responsibility.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.": Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot. Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing." query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. " double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe." ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
nades writes: CRBot: Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff... ("But with much less dopey residue, nades.")
ille_vir sez: "I have a feeling this one is going to hit a lot more people less well-off than the Madoff crowd. That sucks."
Not to be gratuitously argumentative, but why does it suck?
Some of us learned as pre-teens standing on sawdust in a county fair midway that the "easy money" games are rigged, that the "something for nothing" marks are marks indeed and suckers, that the only way to earn something of use and value was to produce something of use and value and exchange fairly, instead of trying some "get kewpie quick" scheme.
Some, clearly, never learned. Maybe it's time they learned; even if it's a harder lesson now, it's no less valuable.
To my view, it's a form of justice knocking at their doors, and justice never sucks.
Regarding SDS again: I agree, the $11 payout in December would make the proper comparison $97 vs. 130. But it's still nowhere near the $114 or so that we should be seeing if there hadn't been any slippage.
As for SRS: Yes, if you bought it as recently as last September for about $80 and sold during the crash, you could've tripled your money if you happened to sell on just the right day or few. But if you thought that the situation would continue to get worse (and it has, hasn't it?), and expected to hold a capital gain across the crash, you'd be sadly disappointed. Only today would you be back in the green (including the payout in December).
In short, these are useful trading vehicles, but do they provide long-term security of principal for those who are right about the trend? Hell no.
I'm curious to see what happens to Dallas in next few years. That TI's campus is going to shrink in terms of employees I take as a given. There will be fewer directly employed, fewer vendors, etc, etc. Granted AT&T is setting up shop, but I'm not so sure that is going to provide the engineering jobs that TI did. We shall see...
Remember the general ban on short selling? Wasn't it like last September or something? Yeesh, I don't think it was just me.
ille_vir | 02.17.09 - 2:25 pm
I totally misunderstood your first post -- I thought that you personally were permanently banned from shorting all stocks. Never mind, then...
I am personally AMAZED at how NAS stocks hold up. If the herd wasn't paraded into them recently (like the system like to do) it would be much, MUCH lower.
To my view, it's a form of justice knocking at their doors, and justice never sucks. denriddy | 02.17.09 - 2:27 pm | #
To me, it sucks when people who have less lose what they have. Information isn't equal; those who have less will, on average, have less of an ability to scrutinize their investments. I figure somebody who invests in CDs is not in the same economic class as somebody who is investing in a Madoff fund, for the most part. They're less able to afford what they've lost, and they're less able to earn it back. CD scams target a different audience than a private equity scam, and to me, it seems more heinous.
@Wisdom - I actually tried to create different paths for those levered ETFs using normal distributions and different parameters. One with high volatility and one with low. I did leave out the tracking errors and higher expense % but it was still interesting nonetheless.
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief. Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Well and succinctly put, Hoops - +10 citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 2:02 pm | #
LOL. That should be engraved in marble somewhere in Manhatten.
FFDIC writes: Page not found « naked capitalism stress.html
(This is absolutely not to be missed and I -as a former FDIC investigator- fully agree with Black in everything written here...)
Naked Cap:
Maybe not first.
The numbers that were positive reflect the dead people getting the survey and not turning it in.
But definitely second.
--
More surveys...
David Rosenberg, 02/17/09:
Household net worth down 20% from 2007 peak -- A Fed survey just came out and indicated that household net worth has contracted 20% from the 2007 peak and that people between 55 and 64 have taken the biggest hit: But the belief system on the part of the younger generation has also been shattered in terms of their future expectations of income and wealth have a good hard look at The Legacy of a Crisis: A Risk-Shy Generation. Even so, for people under the age of 40, half of those surveyed have their money in the equity market. Going forward, the majority would put less than half in stocks (as per a Desalles University poll). The article also cites a Charles Schwab official saying that 401(k) participants are not making many big investment moves there is a sense at least some younger investors may divert 401(k) contributions to other uses one sensible way to reduce overall risk is to pay down high-interest debt, like credit cards or private student loans. Pay down debt or buy bonds its all about saving on or capturing future cash flows.
Those who took the biggest hit, people between 55 and 64, are the leading edge of the Baby Doomers. They also happen to be the biggest born-and-bred American dopes and it is not a coincidence. The most thankless job in America is to point out to a genuine born-and-bred American dope that he has been a dope all his life, i.e., he was bred to be a dope in the areas of economics, investments and politics with the most massive propaganda campaign in human history, and the sad situation is unlikely to change until he first comes to terms with the condition and admits to his dearth of knowledge (most of what he knows is from a menu of propaganda). It is a dirty job but someone has to do it for the good
Jas
So much for grand delusions - I didn't place second, only first.
An increase of 12.5% month-over-month!!! Bottom!
Where is david Lereah?
a perfect time not to buy or build!
Cocaine is a hellofdrug
Then why were there over 500,000 housing starts in January? Yeah, builders gotta build, but how long can they keep shooting themselves in the feet?
Ha ha first real post. Kinda.
Baby Doomers?
How bout plague on all humanity?
St. Louis Fed's Bullard - 2009 disinflation may become deflatio
--
For got to add...
Down 20% and at least 60% more to go! The "net worth" was lot of hot air of asset inflation. Deflation would cure the idiotic beliefs about what the wealth is what it ain't.
Jas
If the number goes all the way to 0, what does that mean?
"n the first component, I will argue that a key near-term risk for 2009 is further disinflation and possibly deflation. Expectations of deflation for the next five years may feed into real interest rates, driving real rates higher just at the time monetary policy would like to move them lower. The zero bound is constraining ordinary policy responses to this situation, making things worse."
St. Louis Fed
They were hopeful about the stimulus package. Now that the 5 year carryback is dead, it will go to 5 next month.
From Jas' post:
Those who took the biggest hit, people between 55 and 64, are the leading edge of the Baby Doomers. They also happen to be the biggest born-and-bred American dopes and it is not a coincidence.
I personally know three guys, supposedly really well off, who officially retired last summer and fall. Guess what? They are back at their old jobs after only being away a few weeks at most. The reason? Their retirement funds dropped IN HALF with the stock-market tanking. they are somewhat less than happy at being back to the grind. Indefinitely.
Ouch.
Me? As and elderly Gen-X person, I never have had delusions of being able to retire. Work until you can't or until you die...it's the human condition.
Shouldn't that red squiggly thingy changed direction already?
Nostrovia,
they should just change the units on the ordinate. Add a zero or something et voila the value is 90. That sounds better already.
Hey hey...that jap finance minister got fired. So much for flu medicine. And another ponzi scheme was revealed. Shaping up to be quite a day.
Jas,
For the majority of Americans, their biggest asset is still their house.
What kind of "asset" is a house anyway? A house costs you money every single month, it never pays a dividend, and it is likely to decrease in value significantly over the coming decade especially after states and municipalities increasingly turn to taxing real estate to make ends meet.
The biggest swindle history.
and this is a surprise to who?
790/1 is getting more action today than Brittany Spears!
HaloScan hates me today (repost):
From NYT on Fed assessment of consumer finances:
- NY Times 13fed.html
Fed analysts estimated that 35.8 percent of the average familys assets in 2007 were in unrecognized capital gains, such as gains in the market value of houses that people had yet to sell. Slightly more than half of those unrecognized gains came from real estate, and the second biggest source was increases in the value of business assets.
Freudian Typo, anyone? "Unrecognized" capital gains should, of course, now be written as "unrecognizable" capital gains... The paper wealth is GONE.
Perhaps in the future the Fed will change the name and start to survey "Producer Finances" instead of "Consumer Finances". The idea that citizens are "consumers" without first and foremost being "producers" has to die sometime.
Also, just to toss a bomb out there regarding Roosevelt/Hoover and how we got out of GD1: is it really "economic growth" if you're just trying to get back to where you were a few years ago? While on the one hand, conditions in 1939 were better than the worst in 1932-33, in some ways they were still worse than the best days of the boom, especially after accounting for population growth. Sort of like New Orleans today vs. before and after Katrina: there has been "growth" after the hurricane, but it's still not like the "good old days"...
--
Rick James,
America's Baby Doomers were specifically BRED with bad behavior and bad morality to lead to America's doom (collapse of the system as we have known it) and they will succeed in the task they were prepared all their life for.
Sorry if the truth hurts or is not acceptable.
Jas
PS: I am of Doomers' age group and know lots of Doomers. They are genuine born-and-bred American dopes with propaganda belief system. Just think about Limbaugh dopes and Obama dopes. These two are Propagandist-In-Chief.
The biggest swindle history.
Angry Saver | 02.17.09 - 1:18 pm | #
The same could be said for govt investment in roads over public transit.
Builder confidence up 12.5%.
"and this is a surprise to who?
NOT Irving Fisher!"
to whom.
OT fade to black
The lights are going out all over Twitter |
Technology |
guardian.co.uk
Kevin Kneeli at CNBC is crying in the back room over the Stanford interest story. Ran out of ways to spin the story.
The only things keepng builders busy right now are filling out builder surveys and transferring all their assets to their wives and kids. Oh and the drinking. How could I forget the drinking?
Elvis,
Don't they know some pretty little relitter gas, too?
Every day we get closer to bottom.
lol
*gals
There was some noise about Buffet's/BRK investment strategy a couple of threads ago.
Maybe a bit more information is in order - this company is one that Buffet picked up a couple of years ago - ISCAR Cutting Tools - Metal Working Tools - Precision Carbide Metal Working Tools - Metal Cutting Applications Just the sort of company that some of the more industrially minded here might find interesting.
There is an article here - Buffett Takes a Cut of Iscar
Buffet is an old man at this point - just because he has been one of the world's richest men for years is no reason to assume he actually knows anything about stocks or how to make money, especially over the long term, which seems to be his espoused strategy. One encompassing the unavoidable fact that in the long term, he will be dead too.
Obviously, having a cool 68 billion dollars (or maybe these days 55 billion, or perish the thought, only 34 billion) to your name leads to only one clear conclusion - Buffet=FAIL.
Right.
--
giacutter,
I retired in March 2000 at the age of 51 and have never looked back and there is no reason to. Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998).
Be Safe! (From the financial Crooks).
Jas
Michael?
Police: Ohio man held woman captive, read Bible
TOLEDO, Ohio Ohio police say a man held a woman captive in handcuffs and an adult diaper for three days while he read Bible passages to her.
citizen energyecon writes:
lol
*gals
Actually, some kind of Realtor gas (R) could help to explain alot of bizarre behaviour the last several years......
"Obviously, having a cool 68 billion dollars (or maybe these days 55 billion, or perish the thought, only 34 billion) to your name leads to only one clear conclusion - Buffet=FAIL.
Right.
rent_to_own | 02.17.09 - 1:24 pm |"
Malcolmm Forbes already won. He had the most toys when he died. Everyone else is a loser.
Elvis writes:
"and this is a surprise to who?
NOT Irving Fisher!"
to whom.
Elvis | 02.17.09 - 1:21 pm | #
Thanks, I realized my error right after I clicked publish.
Do these clowns believe in the Tooth Fairy and Peter Pan also....?????
I can hear Bob Pisani now (although I don't watch CNBC anymore): "It's simple, really. Our entire economy, markets and gov't are just one big Ponzi Scheme."
If only it was one big Fonzie Scheme.
SIT ON IT!
USbank new low today and every 5 minutes...somebody knows something
Jas, you'll never get anywhere pointing out American exceptionalism. Billions of dollars and man-hours have been required to set up and maintain the propaganda machine.
It will be undone as all expansive systems are undone...from the the inner and inherent flaws contained within itself.
Bulk of FDIC-Insured Loan Portfolios Tied to Real Estate Market -- Seeking Alpha
Bulk of FDIC-Insured Loan Portfolios Tied to Real Estate Market
(with pie chart)
"Unrecognized" capital gains should, of course, now be written as "unrecognizable" capital gains... The paper wealth is GONE.
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:20 pm | #
Just pray that they're untaxable as well.....
Bullard from St Louis (most hawkish district) were probably ordered to say that today. Friedman, Keynes and Bernanke on code red. Start the presses.
Wisdom seeker: unemployment in '39? 18%. New Deal they call it. Japan anyone? DDR?
NOTE: any number under 10 indicates that builders view sales as horrific.
Forecast: Homebuilding to fall by nearly 50% – but not in Dallas-Fort Worth |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Dallas Business News
Forecast: Homebuilding to fall by nearly 50% but not in Dallas-Fort Worth
@FFDIC: "... but not in Dallas-Fort Worth"
Decoupling?
Bullard from St Louis (most hawkish district) were probably ordered to say that today. Friedman, Keynes and Bernanke on code red. Start the presses.
Wisdom seeker: unemployment in '39? 18%. New Deal they call it. Japan anyone? DDR?
FFDIC,
Brad Hunter should consider another profession. Or, if he is right, the entire lot of Texas homebuilders should be imprisoned in pickle jars.
come on 790..... break on through to the other side......
--
Builders can't compete with the non-builders! Stop building you dopes!!
Please don't listen to people who have been claiming that the "inventory is [was a year ago] being worked off." There is lot more than 1.6M excess inventory when you take the negative demand into account due to people, say 3-5%, doubling and tripling up due to job losses and other reasons to save money.
Depressions expose bad economists as well as bad behavior on the parts of the leaders and the led (misled).
Jas
Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?
"Japan anyone? DDR?"
Dance Dance Revolution?
For those who want them. My tuesday links are up. It's the best from the weekend plus today. 46 stories so far.
Bailout News For Feb.17th: Insolvent Banks, Autos, Ireland and Eastern Europe - Home - The Daily Bail
good stuff today.
Will someone please provide a link for NYMEX or WTI crude future month contracts.
I can't seem to find anything but spot prices on Bloomie.
"Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?
Wisdom Speaker"
Federal Reserve bankers are allowed to read but not post.
--
Comrade Janosik,
Salute! And shalom.
Jas
Wisdom seeker: unemployment in '39?
What would our unemployment rate be today, if it was measured in the same way as '39?
DDR = Deutsche Democratik Republik = East Germany
CRM=Personal ATM of Mark "douchebag" Benioff.
Ciao
MS
MS
que?
"Wisdom Speaker writes:
Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?
Wisdom Speaker | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:37 pm |"
Commenters are stumped.
The Austrian exchange closed down a touch over 8% today...here are the components:
^ATX: Components for ATX - Yahoo! Finance
citizen energyecon - thanks! I forgot to check that one...after Yves speculated they were in trouble
just to reiterate: DOW 6000
I said it first. of course, when it gets to DOW 4300 I'll be saying "You can stop now - you proved my point"
Wisdom Speaker writes:
Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?
Hhhard to ttype when you R teriffieddd..
NYMEX or WTI crude future month contracts.
Oil Futurrs
I will argue that a key near-term risk for 2009 is further disinflation and possibly deflation
2im | 02.17.09 - 1:15 pm | #
WTF is disinflation and how does it differ from deflation? And what's with the "possibly"?
Sheesh!
790!
rally-
Look up the symbol....
Ciao
MS
FFDIC | 02.17.09 - 1:33 pm | #
Uggh...chart has percentages, I could not find the dollar amount tied to that - and idea what that number is FFDIC?
Hoping things are looking up for Angela...
Disinflation = decreasing rate of inflation.
Deflation = negative inflatio
CNBC talking heads are banned from making personal comments on Stanford. Tools.
daily bail sed: "For those who want them. My tuesday links are up."
You consistently have the best collection of economic stories I know of. Thanks for all you do.
Jas writes: "Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998)."
Great Jas-hole, it only took 11 years for the equity markets to get back to the levels they were in 1998. I've been hearing you spew your BS for over a decade and you would have bankrupted anyone who listened to you. Thankfully I didnt and increased my nest egg 5-fold since 1998 - inlcuding being up about 20% last year.
You are a broken clock.
I get the feeling we be plumbing uncharted depths by the end of the day.
"CNBC talking heads are banned from making personal comments on Stanford. Tools.
Michael"
What about the Ivy League schools. Here are my commments -- "Overpriced. Overrated. Hurting Endowments."
Oil Equations | 02.17.09 - 1:41 pm | #
Wow that looks like quite the curve shift...
Someone mentioned last nite Pelosi was to have audience w/Pope or maybe it was a nightmare...The NYT is on top of it big time...
Sin, and Its Indulgences - Room for Debate Blog - NYTimes.com
Sin, and Its Indulgences
I get the feeling we be plumbing uncharted depths by the end of the day.
TCA | 02.17.09 - 1:44 pm | #
Heh.... I would not be surprised by a rally to UNCH. But I'm staying short.
Speaking from experience - outside of professional sports teams the ivy league is the second greatest short... (stole the sports short from Julian Robertson)
Elvis writes:
What about the Ivy League schools. Here are my commments -- "Overpriced. Overrated. Hurting Endowments."
Maybe we're going to see another big U-shape (W-shape) on the Dow like we did last week...
Well I was listing to AM radio this morning and they were out Sheep sheering, they asked one lady and I quote.
Interviewer: So what do you think of the Presidents stimulus package.
Obviously disconnected chain smoker: ( Insert,Grog voice over ) " Well if they keep passing stimulus packages we are going to owe China Millions "
That's Millions with an " M "
mish
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SZrvoPpwH4I/AAAAAAAAFo0/MnmYZONHxZE/s1600-h/sales+tax+receipts.png
So how are things going with Cramer's magnificent 4 or whatever he called his favorite banks?
Buffoon.
Amazing that so few (any?) big builders have gone BK yet.
I think LEN, HOV and DHI will implode this year.
Houston we have a problem:
By late this morning doors were locked and the lobby was filled with people including uniformed officials.
"A sign posted on the doors read: "We are temporarily closed; the company is still in operation but under the management of a receiver. For updated information please visit our Web site at www.stanfordfinancialreceivership.com."
Billionaire, Houston firms accused of 'shocking' fraud | Chronicle | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
What is the program buy index - TICK or something like that? Anyone have a read on whatever the heck it actually is?
"Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?"
Some of the new ones looked down at what the older ones have been pointing at...It's a Wile E. Coyote Ugly moment.
Nostrovia,
Obviously disconnected chain smoker: ( Insert,Grog voice over ) " Well if they keep passing stimulus packages we are going to owe China Millions "
That's Millions with an " M "
bfatz | 02.17.09 - 1:49 pm | #
Well, she's sort of right... we'll owe them several hundred thousand millions give or take
"RockyR writes:
Maybe we're going to see another big U-shape (W-shape) on the Dow like we did last week...
RockyR | 02.17.09 - 1:48 pm |"
Too much bad news not priced in yet.
However, Cramer showed us how the market is manipulated and rigged, so up is possible but not likely. The trend is still Dow. The Dow is a lagging indicator due to the manipulation.
404 Visitors Online.
I'm trying not to take that personally...
"Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?"
When the big moments come, the great announcers step aside and let what's happening on the field speak for itself.
Viable auto industry crucial - White
Feb 17, (Reuters) -
The White House said it was crucial for the United States to have a strong and viable auto industry, and it would study the survival plans of General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC due to be submitted on Tuesday.
No change. let's overproduce cars by 2mm annually, is how i read this.
\tI'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | #
100 pts or so and we take out the bottom of the dotcom crash.
Jes writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
it's gonna take 2-3yrs to get past the horizontal part of the L-shaped equity markets that we are now i
"Jes writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | "
The last time the Dow made a low was armageddon. It's still armagedon.
"Is it just me, or has the Comment Rate / Visitors Online ratio fallen recently?"
I rarely post anymore, but read regularly. Reading is more of a therapy session these days. You know, other people seeing the same pain.
Someone was advising to continiue "dollar cost averaging" today on the radio. sigh more therapy needed
"A sign posted on the doors read: "We are temporarily closed; the company is still in operation but under the management of a receiver. For updated information please visit our Web site at www.stanfordfinancialreceivership.com."
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:50 pm | #
I have a feeling this one is going to hit a lot more people less well-off than the Madoff crowd. That sucks.
So any news on GM and Chrysler?
Jas Jain writes:
giacutter,
I retired in March 2000 at the age of 51 and have never looked back and there is no reason to. Some of us know the con game operated by BFNYC via the ab-use of the Scam Market (a conclusion I reached in 1998).
Be Safe! (From the financial Crooks).
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:26 pm | #
What a coincidence. I left the markets for bonds in August 1998 after the currency crisis and the LTCM debacle.
Given the level of risk I assumed since that time, my returns stand up pretty well against the stocks markets, even with dividends included, I think.
Once the Fed openly started talking about buying up the long end of the bond market, I fled the scene and locked in CD rates over the next 5 years.
The operative principle here is to abandon any market when it becomes obvious that the government is manipulating it. Nothing good will come of that, at least not for people like us.
Probably should have gotten into gold several years ago, but now, it's too late. Would like to diversify even more into non-dollar denominated holdings, but the anarchist/socialist in me says that this crisis is going to respect no borders, it is going to wreak havoc across the entire global capitalist system.
Maybe, the best solution is to plow up my back yard and start growing vegetables and fruit. The soil is of very good quality where I live (about 2 miles from the Sacramento River) , and the area was a center of Japanese American truck farming in the 1930s.
Jes(Unrated) writes:
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief.
skent writes:
So any news on GM and Chrysler?
I heard that a guy in Hoboken bought a new American car today, breaking a six-day streak of no sales. We're saved.
I'm taken aback at how sanguine us folks on Haloscan seem to be about today's Dow, which is a hair away from a new low. Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
Jes | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | #
Many of us are just confounded by the "rally" since Oct. 2008.
GM and Chrysler will publish their proposals after the markets close.
-K
New thread red meat..
Bailed-Out Banks Charge Highest Fees in FDIC Sales (Update1)
(story to follow - not up)
Egan-Jones Expands Into Mortgage Security Research (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
" Whats not in your Wallet "
Capital One January card annualized net charge-off rate 7.82%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/capital-one-january-card-annualized/story.aspx?guid={028E4903-9014-4F57-88BF-A728D844C8F0}&siteid=yahoomy
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief.
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Well and succinctly put, Hoops - +10
I think I am beginning to burn out on Doom. It is getting harder and harder to come back and read.
I'd try posting more but cannot compete with a lot of the posters here. The insight and knowlege posted here is amazing. The political ranting is a turn off but I keep coming back to sift through the garbage and find what good advice I can.
Keep up the good work!
My son said his Wright Model B model was infallible, and that I should give him all our money to invest.
Now his mother and I are living in a cardboard box eating our own excrement.
"Bailed-Out Banks Charge Highest Fees in FDIC Sales (Update1)"
Once again proving that the big banks suck.
I think we may have slow capitulation, not based on today's performance, but over-all, sellers over buyers looks like 401k/IRA money being pulled out of the market--selling looks like index funds. This may have legs after-all. Let's see how institutional investors do without investors.
--bh
Though, we're assuming that at least some of these housing starts will turn into housing completions.
I have 25% of my money left in the market and would like to move it to cash. Not sure if a close below DOW 7553 means move to 100% cash or wait until the market bounces off that number. I have been doing well but confused right now....
"Now his mother and I are living in a cardboard box eating our own excrement.
Sebastian's Dad"
Meanwhile your son is turning tricks for soup. Tough choice...
Hedge funds open their gates in 2 weeks.
Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan - washingtonpost.com
Just days before Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was scheduled to lay out his much-anticipated plan to deal with the toxic assets imperiling the financial system, he and his team made a sudden about-face.
According to several sources involved in the deliberations, Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers.
A triple inverted sow-cow formation is forming. Clear buy signal.
--
BREEDING DOPES HAS BEEN THE MOST PROFITABLE ACTIVITY IN AMERICA FOR THOSE SEEKING MONEY, POWER AND SEX.
Free market in action! (Once you have done away with traditions and moral restraints).
For those who want more money, power and sex, get out of Dopeland and join Gangistan, a place where propagandists are in high demand and are well rewarded. For example, I was watching Obama on BOOK TV rebroadcast after the Election of 2004 (when he was nothing more than a junior Senator) at George Washington U and he was signing books after the talk. There was a young tall good-looking blonde who was getting a book signed and Obama asked her if she had any Hill Experience (he didnt ask that question of any other woman, or any man, who got a book signed before this one) with an eye to get her on the Hill and he kept looking at her after he was done signing and the next one was waiting. One part of being a US Senator, no matter how old or what color, is have lots of young women staffers to do. Yes, yes, American economic and political crooks, or gangsters, have developed a good system for themselves. Ambitious men in America, including the Corporate Crooks, try to be part of American Gangistan. The rest must live in Dopeland and bitch.
Breeding bad behavior and immorality always has consequences. The bill is coming due for Americas ruling elite led by BFNYC.
Jas
However, Cramer showed us how the market is manipulated
Michael | 02.17.09 - 1:52 pm | #
Cramer? Really?
Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers.
Basel Too
I wonder if he came to that conclusion on his own or if his boss helped.
Anyone catch House of Cards last night on CSPAN ?
Quite eye opening to say the least,,,I'll quote the Mystro himself Greenspan:
" Even I could not do the complex match to which those CDO's are packaged, and I have many PHD's "
This should finish the day-off...
Live Video at 2:40p ET: President Obama Signs Stimulus Legislation and Comments on Economy
I love the Sebastian's Dad jokes. More! More!
Live Video at 2:40p ET: President Obama Signs Stimulus Legislation and Comments on Economy
LAM | 02.17.09 - 2:07 pm | #
They should know better than to do that right before the market opens for the day.
A triple inverted sow-cow formation is forming. Clear buy signal.
The Notorious A.I.G.
Sow-cow formation is many times confused with the Johnny "The Wad" Holmes formation. Be careful. invest wisely.
Now his mother and I are living in a cardboard box eating our own excrement.
Sebastian calls this reinvesting your dividends.
"green writes:
I have 25% of my money left in the market and would like to move it to cash. Not sure if a close below DOW 7553 means move to 100% cash or wait until the market bounces off that number. I have been doing well but confused right now....
green | 02.17.09 - 2:03 pm |"
The Dow bounced bounced back to 9000+ from it's previous low once, not likely twice. Market holding for Obama's signature, then sell on the news.
The Catholic church granting indulgences smacks of a pardon for the "spiritual" among the elite who have a conscience and understand the harm their personal enrichment commits against humankind.
Or maybe the church is replenishing their coffers because they've been hurt in this economic catastrophe.
Can we move of this 7580 level...come on Foreman throw some punches!!
--
"Anyone catch House of Cards last night on CSPAN ?"
bfatz,
It was on CNBC. I caught most of it. Not a single surprise!
Jas
Sold my Feb 87/82 bear put spread for 4.20. Not gonna risk trying to make 0.80 when the PPT is roving around.
Still have some Mar 60s, some HIG, and some Jun 90s.
Yes thank you Jas my bad
Just a random comment on those infamous double-leveraged ETFs:
The S&P 500 is now about 50 points from its bear-market low of 741.02 in November. That's a net rise of 6.7% over the past few months.
If the double-inverse effect lasted more than intraday, and the SP500 double-inverse ETF, SDS, actually tracked 2x the inverse of the S&P 500, then SDS should be sitting about 13.4% below its bear-market high from November. But SDS is currently trading near 86.40 versus a bear market high of 130.
In other words, had you bought SDS during the October and/or November plunges and held it (expecting a lower low down the road), you'd have lost as much as 1/3 of your investment!
The same issues plague SRS (now trading near 76 vs. highs over 280), SKF, and other double-inverse ETFs.
This is significant here because I have some illiquid 529 plan investments in the SP500 which I have been trying to hedge out somehow. It's easier and requires less capital to do this by buying SDS than by shorting the S&P500 or trading options. But the double-inverse effect is only short-term, and one has to get the timing right for the sell.
Hmmm...
"Regionally, the HMI rose a single point in both the South and West, to 12, and 5, respectively, in February."
The South is 140% more confident than the West. Flippers -- to the South! Charge!
Market holding for Obama's signature, then sell on the news.
Michael 02.17.09 - 2:09 pm
Whats the chance Pres. Obama has second thoughts...
Slaming Capitol Hill Live
Probably should have gotten into gold several years ago, but now, it's too late.
Richard Estes
It's never too late to convert some fiat into gold. Do you expect the dollar to hold it's value over the next 5 years?
PPT coming to the rescue...
"But the double-inverse effect is only short-term, and one has to get the timing right for the sell."
The double shorts must be actively managed. If you are not willing to put in the time, you can get easily hurt.
A slice of the S&P sorted:
GENWORTH FINANCI\t2.1\t-0.23\t-9.87\t7,478,974
AMERIPRISE FINAN\t18.45\t-2.01\t-9.82\t2,124,325
NATL OILWELL VAR\t25.69\t-2.74\t-9.64\t4,869,267
WEATHERFORD INTL\t9.61\t-1.02\t-9.6\t19,336,120
AMERICAN EXPRESS\t14.23\t-1.51\t-9.59\t15,067,991
MEMC ELEC MATER\t14.57\t-1.54\t-9.56\t4,603,842
CITIGROUP INC\t3.16\t-0.33\t-9.46\t118,440,564
GOLDMAN SACHS GP\t87.35\t-9.1\t-9.43\t18,012,678
PEABODY ENERGY\t25.61\t-2.64\t-9.35\t5,195,728
US STEEL CORP\t27.78\t-2.83\t-9.25\t7,397,932
CONVERGYS CORP\t6.89\t-0.7\t-9.22\t508,466
BANK OF AMERICA\t5.06\t-0.51\t-9.16\t180,511,438
TERADYNE INC\t4.4\t-0.44\t-9.09\t1,810,894
JPMORGAN CHASE\t22.45\t-2.24\t-9.07\t52,343,642
EXPEDIA INC\t8.35\t-0.82\t-8.97\t2,633,953
CBS CORP-B\t5.29\t-0.52\t-8.95\t4,707,533
HESS CORP\t53.21\t-5.2\t-8.9\t2,382,677
ALCOA INC\t6.82\t-0.66\t-8.85\t20,577,025
BOSTON PROPERTIE\t37.59\t-3.63\t-8.81\t2,345,212
TITANIUM METALS\t7.38\t-0.71\t-8.78\t1,129,327
APPLIED MATERIAL\t8.68\t-0.83\t-8.75\t16,820,505
HALLIBURTON CO\t16.7\t-1.59\t-8.69\t7,507,969
WELLS FARGO & CO\t14.39\t-1.37\t-8.69\t66,279,526
SMITH INTL INC\t21.97\t-2.07\t-8.61\t3,353,715
COMERICA INC\t14.16\t-1.33\t-8.59\t1,805,017
MBIA INC\t3.62\t-0.34\t-8.59\t3,011,460
PULTE HOMES INC\t9.86\t-0.91\t-8.45\t5,517,710
ANADARKO PETROLE\t36.58\t-3.33\t-8.34\t3,970,987
ROWAN COMPANIES\t11.67\t-1.05\t-8.25\t3,345,452
WESTERN UNION\t11.55\t-1.03\t-8.19\t5,385,561
TEXTRON INC\t6.33\t-0.56\t-8.13\t4,255,877
--
Sebastian's Dad,
Your wife and you are each fined $5 for breeding a genuine dope. Please mail a check to Tanta's charity. Thank you.
Jas
"LAM writes:
Market holding for Obama's signature, then sell on the news.
Michael 02.17.09 - 2:09 pm
Whats the chance Pres. Obama has second thoughts...
Slaming Capitol Hill Live
LAM | 02.17.09 - 2:13 pm |"
Obama's new slogan; "Change we Can't Believe In"
Do they have a gun and ammunition manufacturing ETF I can invest in? No?
crispy&cole writes:
PPT coming to the rescue...
I was about to ask - do we finish green?
President Obama Signs Stimulus Legislation and Comments on Economy
The Lorax | 02.17.09 - 2:08 pm | #
The Mastah Eunuch Uncle Sam is gonna get a hard-on any minute now, sir!
Ruh roh... CR's main page gone all white.
But SDS is currently trading near 86.40 versus a bear market high of 130.
Keep in mind SDS paid a dividend of $11 or so in December; more accurate to compare an adjusted current value of $97 to the bear market high.
SDS paid off a significant short term cap gain distribution at the end of last year, think about $11 a share. I understand your point about them not being good trading vehicles, (I'm only in them because I got BANNED from short selling by the loser SEC) but SDS isn't quite as bad as you make it out to be.
Wisdom Speaker writes:
Just a random comment on those infamous double-leveraged ETFs:
What were the capital gains paid from these ETF's? Do you know? When? How much? Trends, trends, trends and trends is what matters with the leveraged ETF's. You could of bought SRS for $65 in early 07, held until late last year, drew capital gains out and saw a 450% gain. Wisdom speaker my ass.
The FDIC just seized popular finance blog Calculated Risk and blanked the front page. Shiela!!! DAMN YOU!!!
"Stimulus: Now for the hard part"
Sounds like the name of a new porn movie, but it is the the headline on CNN business right now. Just hope next week it doesn't say "Stimulus: Getting behind the hard part."
CR manipulatio
Actually, perhaps the most telling line from the WaPo article on Geithner's flameout was this one:
Meanwhile, the sources said, Obama's senior economic advisers were hobbled in crafting the plan by a shortage of personnel. To date, the president has not nominated any assistant secretaries or undersecretaries at the Treasury, and the handful of mid-level staffers who have started work were still finding their offices and getting their building passes and BlackBerrys.
I could understand if the President hadn't nominated some of the undersecretaries, but not nominating any of the team to run Treasury, a full month into the administration, is really BAD.
How does Obama expect to win this thing without a full team on the field?
Or perhaps... have Geithner and Summers been set up to fail? (I mean by Obama's team, not by the markets or economy.)
We know Geithner is damaged goods (comes from the group that missed the crisis brewing, dodged taxes, and now apparently he can't put together a plan even with a head start)... is he a fall guy?
This is the tightest sideways-crawl I can ever remember seeing on the markets.
I'm only in them because I got BANNED from short selling by the loser SEC
None of my business, of course, but... really? Personal enforcement action against you, or a policy enforced against you by a brokerage firm that you otherwise don't want to leave?
Again, not trying to pry, but am interested in your situation...
CR...fade to white...sorry Fed for everything I said...
"Hoopajoops LTD writes:
The FDIC just seized popular finance blog Calculated Risk and blanked the front page. Shiela!!! DAMN YOU!!!
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 2:18 pm |"
They don't like the results of our think tank. But can they shut down HaloScan. Don't close your HS window.
Recovery.gov is up
Daily Bail, I suggest you also focus your attentions there to root out pork
"We are losing so much money on these McMansions, the only way to make it up is on volume"
Note as well that Gordon Brown is under great pressure in the UK - he's their former SecTreas equivalent and now Prime Minister. And Japan just flushed its finance minister as well.
A housecleaning of "failed leadership" among the G7/G20 is probably necessary to restore market confidence. It would also fit in with the "prepare for nationalization/preprivatization/reprivatization theme".
fade to white...
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 2:20 pm | #
-----
KD was right! It was a meltdown in the making! They already got CR!!!1!
Hoop,
"This is the tightest sideways-crawl I can ever remember seeing on the markets."
I am getting a spidey-sense feeling.
Nostrovia,
page is back...wierd. Had to reach for my tinfoil hat.
/takes off hat
/for now
--bh
This is the tightest sideways-crawl I can ever remember seeing on the markets.
\t Hoopajoops LTD | \t \t \tHomepage | \t02.17.09 -
Dawg called both the 790 support and the flat line. I think he called for a break at 2:45, IIRC.
If we just pull the plug and reboot the computers can we start over again?
Seems a lot easier to me....no thought process involved.
Investing in ponzi schemes is fine, so long as you remember to diversify your holdings by investing in several at once.
Wow, 3 years into the correction and they just now figured out things are bad...
Keep up the good work Nâhb
Do they have a gun and ammunition manufacturing ETF I can invest in? No?
U.S. treasuries.
.
Remember the general ban on short selling? Wasn't it like last September or something? Yeesh, I don't think it was just me.
I'd just like to say that the kinds of problems America will be facing now...are not the kinds of problems that will be corrected by the financiers or by Obama or by the Congress or by the bearded man in the sky...the lives of people will have to be reworked from the ground up. I don't think my sorry ass spoiled generation is up to that kind of responsibility.
New Thread: WaPo on Geithner: Last Minute Course Change for Bank Bailout ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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Untitled Document
looking ugly again today...
So is this a clever way of suggesting that nationalization of the banks is now the ONLY option left?
ille_vir sez: "I have a feeling this one is going to hit a lot more people less well-off than the Madoff crowd. That sucks."
Not to be gratuitously argumentative, but why does it suck?
Some of us learned as pre-teens standing on sawdust in a county fair midway that the "easy money" games are rigged, that the "something for nothing" marks are marks indeed and suckers, that the only way to earn something of use and value was to produce something of use and value and exchange fairly, instead of trying some "get kewpie quick" scheme.
Some, clearly, never learned. Maybe it's time they learned; even if it's a harder lesson now, it's no less valuable.
To my view, it's a form of justice knocking at their doors, and justice never sucks.
Don't take off that hat! It's a trap!
"I don't think my sorry ass spoiled generation is up to that kind of responsibility.
Comrade Janosik"
But you still haven't hit puberty yet. Give you and your generation some time.
U.S. markets venture into sky-is-falling territory The Technical Indicator - MarketWatch
S&P ventures into 'sky-is-falling' territory
Focus: Fertilizers, AGU, POT, NETL, SA, NUVA, ISIL, SOHU, PRXL
Regarding SDS again: I agree, the $11 payout in December would make the proper comparison $97 vs. 130. But it's still nowhere near the $114 or so that we should be seeing if there hadn't been any slippage.
As for SRS: Yes, if you bought it as recently as last September for about $80 and sold during the crash, you could've tripled your money if you happened to sell on just the right day or few. But if you thought that the situation would continue to get worse (and it has, hasn't it?), and expected to hold a capital gain across the crash, you'd be sadly disappointed. Only today would you be back in the green (including the payout in December).
In short, these are useful trading vehicles, but do they provide long-term security of principal for those who are right about the trend? Hell no.
I'm curious to see what happens to Dallas in next few years. That TI's campus is going to shrink in terms of employees I take as a given. There will be fewer directly employed, fewer vendors, etc, etc. Granted AT&T is setting up shop, but I'm not so sure that is going to provide the engineering jobs that TI did. We shall see...
Remember the general ban on short selling? Wasn't it like last September or something? Yeesh, I don't think it was just me.
ille_vir | 02.17.09 - 2:25 pm
I totally misunderstood your first post -- I thought that you personally were permanently banned from shorting all stocks. Never mind, then...
I am personally AMAZED at how NAS stocks hold up. If the herd wasn't paraded into them recently (like the system like to do) it would be much, MUCH lower.
Ciao
MS
To my view, it's a form of justice knocking at their doors, and justice never sucks.
denriddy | 02.17.09 - 2:27 pm | #
To me, it sucks when people who have less lose what they have. Information isn't equal; those who have less will, on average, have less of an ability to scrutinize their investments. I figure somebody who invests in CDs is not in the same economic class as somebody who is investing in a Madoff fund, for the most part. They're less able to afford what they've lost, and they're less able to earn it back. CD scams target a different audience than a private equity scam, and to me, it seems more heinous.
@Wisdom - I actually tried to create different paths for those levered ETFs using normal distributions and different parameters. One with high volatility and one with low. I did leave out the tracking errors and higher expense % but it was still interesting nonetheless.
William Black: "There Are No Real Stress Tests Going On" « naked capitalism
(This is absolutely not to be missed and I -as a former FDIC investigator- fully agree with Black in everything written here...)
Naked Cap:
Wm. Black - There are no real stress tests going on...
PDX home sales sink to new low.
Portland-area home sales hit record low | Oregon Business News - OregonLive.com
- NY Times
NYT
Dow Nears Lowest Level in a Decade
When the financial markets achieve fidelity with the real markets, the recovery can begin. Until then, there will be untold suffering in this nation. For this reason, a drop in the markets is something to expect and receive with relief.
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:58 pm | #
Well and succinctly put, Hoops - +10
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 2:02 pm | #
LOL. That should be engraved in marble somewhere in Manhatten.
Refreshing pageantry from O'Drama for this road show wasteful bill signing.
Pathetic. Hope the market gives up a deserving (Bronx) cheer.
FFDIC writes:
Page not found « naked capitalism stress.html
(This is absolutely not to be missed and I -as a former FDIC investigator- fully agree with Black in everything written here...)
Naked Cap:
Thanks, FFDIC, a most informative read.
I don't think my sorry ass spoiled generation is up to that kind of responsibility.
Comrade Janosik | 02.17.09 - 2:25 pm | #
Agreed
Jes writes:
Have we all gotten that blase about doom?
If it's not a large soft-currency country or a major bank blowing up, it's no longer newsworthy.
What is the program buy index - TICK or something like that?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 1:51 pm | #
Explanation
Chart
We live in a two class society where renters are expected to bail out homeowners through a transfer of tax wealth.