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My double long short puts!!!
first
So far Timmy sucks at manipulating the markets.
Geronimo!
I say my plan (mentioned by the esteemed dryfly) is the best- the Feds offer $2500 an ounce for all the gold in America. Instant reflation baby as all the teeth are pulled out of drawers and old jewelry is ruthlessly monetized.
How about that for a fun scenario?
Combine it with all old silver coins are now worth 100x face value- a quarter would be worth $25, a dime $10 and watch the money fly out the door!
Might as well try that, until they put the prop under housing, this market will look like crap, now on the other hand, none of you seem to believe that Obama has a thunderbolt ready for tomorrow- after Timmy G's lackluster reception, he will be knocking them dead.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Back to 1997?
US Bank was a big loser today
From last thread:
Can anyone explain why President Obama signed the bill 10 times with 10 different pens? I haven't seen that done before and thought it was rather odd.
Someone else explained it that the major contributors to the bill each get a pen.
Which explains why Sandy Weill has a pen that signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall.
Another day another trillion dollars. Ho hum.
So did the Chinese stop lending money to stock market speculators yet?
Still getting read to dive off the high board though. Rumor has it someone forgot to fill it with water. Oops.
A real estate (debt) collapse is so much worse than the 1970s or that quaint little tech bust in 2000.
So, if there's a bad crop, we should collectivize agriculture?
crispy,
"US Bank was a big loser today"
Lemme fix that,
US Bank is a big loser, it showed today.
Nostrovia,
"Back to 1997?"
maybe 1982 in japan tonight
OT-
Here's an interesting article, but I'd take it with a grain of salt, since item 1 is:
1 Your government will get smarter...
LOL
none of you seem to believe that Obama has a thunderbolt ready for tomorrow- after Timmy G's lackluster reception, he will be knocking them dead.
Based on how things have gone so far, I hope you'll pardon a bit of skepticism.
double inverse recession writes:
Still getting read to dive off the high board though. Rumor has it someone forgot to fill it with water. Oops.
double inverse recession | 02.17.09 - 4:28 pm |
I paid to see Fearless Freep, I'm a gonna see Fearless Freep!
Using price to sales(P/S) as a valuation metric we can look at past recession P/S ratio troughs:
Year P/S at trough
1990 0.68
1974 0.47
1982 0.40
So if the S&P today had same P/S as
1990 then the S&P = 667
1974 then the S&P = 460
1982 then the S&P = 392
Prosperity is just around the corner!
my wright B model is flickering BUY signal.
It is a lifetime opportunity. Do not waste it.
Seb
Now that you all are short.
Good Luck.
That trade looks mighty crowded again, as we complete our mandated double bottom.
I am starting to agree with Rob Dawg, too many folks believe in charts.
Now we have computers programmed with all of those idiotic rules trading.
Plus all of those daytraders.
All it takes is a big lean too far, and wham, the guys on wall street take them for a ride again.
Crashes tend to have sudden stops and violent countertrend rallies.
Ready?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Using price to sales(P/S) as a valuation metric we can look at past recession P/S ratio troughs:
S&P 500 | 02.17.09 - 4:30 pm | #
THAT is interesting. Where are you pulling the P/S data from?
Come on Obama. Grow a pair.
It's time to clean house at these cesspool banks.
Bondholder cram downs - debt becomes equity.
Mmmm... now at the bottom, again, of the other declines.
We're not cliff-diving, we're doing the limbo: how low will it go?
18 more months and a further 38% decline in the markets sounds about right to me. George Bush, meet Herbert Hoover.
I'm thinking of starting a new money management firm, gonna call it "Maddof Stanford Long Term Capital Managment". it just oozes trust, risk avoidance, and gilt-edged surety. i trademarked it so no one could steal it from me.
Based on how things have gone so far, I hope you'll pardon a bit of skepticism.
MLM | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 4:29 pm | #
Maybe not having thunderbolts is the thunderbolt. The solution is not to throw untenable solution after untenable solution at the population. If you cry EUREKA! every three days eventually people stop listening. He has told people that this will take years, not months.
"eb writes:
my wright B model is flickering BUY signal.
It is a lifetime opportunity. Do not waste it.
Seb"
Got any skin in that game?
OT, regarding odds against ability of those hurt by Madoff ponzi scheme to recover anything via litigation,
"Congress and the courts have spent more than a decade writing and affirming laws that protect companies from irate investors."
Could it be that a sufficient number of wealthy people have been hurt by Madoff's schemes that the laws might be changed?
Madoff Victims Face Grim Prospects in Court: Jane Bryant Quinn - Bloomberg.com
Trial balloons all crashing shortly after takeoff or never getting off the ground. Need to hang up the nightstand cowboy. Gonna be a long dry spell.
Anyone mind clearing this question up for me?
How is this an apples to apples comparison if the composition (companies themselves as well as sectors) of the S&P500 can be changed (more or less) at will? I remember a comment 'round these parts some time ago about how the S&P500 would be much lower if it weren't for the removal of a number of financials.
Anyway... anyone able to describe how this is indeed an apples to apples comparison rather then an apples to oranges to pears?
Muchos danke!
Cn
The Bad Bears chart is only meaningful if a reasonable inflation measure is used to adjust the nominal prices. (CPI may be inaccurate but it's undoubtedly better than no adjustment at all.)
I hope Mr. Short revises and updates the equivalent of this chart:
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-quartet-real-extended-large.gif
Anybody old enough to have actually had a physical lab in signals & controls knows what is happening. This is the one that the syllabus professor of record supervised personally. Dynamic systems are monitored and data collected. More and more data as the lab proceeds. Eventually even macro predictable stable systems start throwing off spurious numbers; noise, edge effects, a zillion things. Ultimately, violent overhunting of the correct values crashes the control system.
±3-4% is merely the data points "hunting" for accuracy at the expense of relevancy.
Unfortunately, none of our leadership has even heard of signals & controls lab.
i love it when AllenM gets all into it
Only missed a fresh low on the DOW by about 0.20 points.
That's an amazingly small margin to avoid the headlines being "Dow hits fresh lows as Obama signs stimulus bill"
MLM he has too, and buy golly, he most likely will.
After the beating he took on bipartisanship, he will be blasting the markets with dynamite.
That stimulus package was just a warmup- in other words, the bipartisan way sucked, so now he does the full FDR nationalization, along with the old Home Owners Loan Corp.
Just a guess, but I usually am right.
Now the gloves come off.
First those pesky Republicans in California have to vote for a balanced budget- or else.
Someday this war's gonna end...
campbeln(Unrated) writes:
\tAnyone mind clearing this question up for me?
campbeln | 02.17.09 - 4:35 pm | #
right, it's not apples to apples but it never will be. the SP500 companies are constantly changing. if you assume the methods to remove remain generally the same, then it is still okay for rough comparison purposes over time. but it is a bias. called survivorship bias.
I paid to see Fearless Freep, I'm a gonna see Fearless Freep!
Jett Rink | 02.17.09 - 4:30 pm | #
Bugs Bunny - High Diving Hare
Some gross typos in my original post... whew.
Price to sales is the best metric for evaluating markets imo. Earnings metrics (although mean reverting) are too volatile and are way too easy to manipulate.
Of course wall street only focuses on earnings. Pimps.
Only missed a fresh low on the DOW by about 0.20 points.
mykillk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 4:35 pm | #
Right... that's 3 pennies on any single stock, or one penny on three different ones.
Nice print!
Watch Out for Oh-Bambers Bombs!
On the US e-CON-omy. I mean e-CON nukes designed by evildoer Summers and his fraudential gang. He will reduce Manhattan and Silly.con Valley's economies into Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is one way to take care of lots of evildoers and Crooks.
Who needs Osama! When Obama can do a better job of bringing the American economy to its knees.
Jas
Watch Out for Oh-Bambers Bombs!
On the US e-CON-omy. I mean e-CON nukes designed by evildoer Summers and his fraudential gang. He will reduce Manhattan and Silly.con Valley's economies into Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is one way to take care of lots of evildoers and Crooks.
Who needs Osama! When Obama can do a better job of bringing the American economy to its knees.
Jas
PS: Smart people read David Rosenberg (declared most accurate and correctly pessimistic on Bloomberg) and dopes listen to part of the rest. Dopes are programmed to remain dopes-for-life by choosing from a list of propagandists. Can you imagine dopes that listen to Limbaugh on economy.
Watch Out for Oh-Bambers Bombs!
On the US e-CON-omy. I mean e-CON nukes designed by evildoer Summers and his fraudential gang. He will reduce Manhattan and Silly.con Valley's economies into Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That is one way to take care of lots of evildoers and Crooks.
Who needs Osama! When Obama can do a better job of bringing the American economy to its knees.
Jas
PS: Smart people read David Rosenberg (declared most accurate and correctly pessimistic on Bloomberg) and dopes listen to part of the rest. Dopes are programmed to remain dopes-for-life by choosing from a list of propagandists. Can you imagine dopes that listen to Limbaugh on economy.
PPS: Obama is going to design economic plans to enrich lawyers (comment on Bloomberg). What else should we expect from a husband and wife lawyers team.
People blaming Obama for doing nothing never ceases to amaze me. These are the same "free market" capitalists who call socialism, let the markets decide, that is until it hits them in their wallets and then they want govt. intervention in the markets.
Someone else explained it that the major contributors to the bill each get a pen.
A Bic Bailout.
\tNow that you all are short.
Good Luck.
That trade looks mighty crowded again, as we complete our mandated double bottom.
Citizen AllenM | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 4:31 pm | #
90% T-bills
10% PM miners
I'm following the Taleb method of investing in this market: use 10% to chase the Black Swan, keep 90% safe. I'm almost certainly not going to get rich with this method, but I won't go broke chasing double shorts.
Having said that, I think the market has another 30% to go down at least.
So... How long till we start calling this a depression?
Chesapeake misses, stock tanks after hours.......time to hit the hard likker.
Winston writes:
So... How long till we start calling this a depression?
when did they start calling the GD the GD -- who coined that term anyway?
wow, us bank three gaps down in three days and a 50% shave.
depression? i call it a new beginning!
So... How long till we start calling this a depression?
Winston | 02.17.09 - 4:39 p
It will become official on August 12, 2009 at a 2:30 announcement in the Rose Garden.
Capitulated (aka dc1000)
Why? Every once in while, the market just goes into a crazy moment, but the guys running the bezzle, when they see everyone running to one side, they take the opposite, and then they make it so.
Because ultimately, that is how they make money.
The best example is the diabolical proshares 2x 3x products that all have an extremely short shelf life.
That is strictly getting folks to bet on a martingale, with a daily reset button rakeoff.
That is what wall street has devolved too, and anybody who thinks that bull markets are forever and bear markets are one way is dreaming.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Capitulated (aka dc1000) writes:
depression? i call it a new beginning!
Obama did say "today marks the beginning of the end"
Dear China:
Please appoint a Trustee In Bankruptcy In Residence for The White House.
Thank you for your consideration.
Cordially,
Kilgore Trout
Texas tea has become a little bitter.
I thought we were immune!
Houston home prices plunge
One in three homes sold last month had previously been in foreclosure, according to the Houston Association of Realtors, and the increase in foreclosure inventory helped contribute to an 8.5 percent drop the median price of a single-family home
Foreclosures hand Houston home prices a big hit | Front page | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
So... How long till we start calling this a depression?
Winston | 02.17.09 - 4:39 pm | #
Hopefully not until I unload my house.
AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) Chrysler says it needs $5 billion more in federal loans, will cut 3,000 jobs, 3 vehicle models. (APNEWSALERT) (4:35 PM 2/17/09)
"
PPS: Obama is going to design economic plans to enrich lawyers "
Jas, the fallout from the mess at this point is enough to employ dozens of large firms for many years.
This is in contrast to an overeducated aging engineer, whose career prospects are basically nil at this point.
The term "depression" was actually a euphemism used by Herbert Hover to avoid using the then current term: "panic"
my plan (mentioned by the esteemed dryfly) is the best- the Feds offer $2500 an ounce for all the gold in America.
--Citizen AllenM
Uh-uh. Last time the USG called in the gold, they followed it with a 34% dollar devaluation. Most holders of gold and silver aren't dumb enough to fall for that trick twice.
Gold will hit 10k/ounce before this is over. And a 1/1 ratio with the Dow.
It's a little late for the USG (or the UK) to be regretting having sold or lent out their gold reserves.
JD2B - when crude hits $25 then the real pain will begin for RRE and CRE in texas
AllenM- what do you mean "why?"
I enjoy your commentary.
"Might as well try that, until they put the prop under housing, this market will look like crap, now on the other hand, none of you seem to believe that Obama has a thunderbolt ready for tomorrow- after Timmy G's lackluster reception, he will be knocking them dead."
It doesn't matter what Timmy does the problems are global, they are structural, and this is a muti-generational event. These fools may slow the fall these guys can't stop it and will make things worse in the end.
So, theoretically, how long should it take before we start seeing results from the moment Obama's pen touched paper on the stimulus bill? Again, theoretically speaking..
Bad engrish moment, a rhetorical "because" should have followed it.
Brain bandwidth exceeds typing speed again...
Godspeed writes:
So, theoretically, how long should it take before we start seeing results from the moment Obama's pen touched paper on the stimulus bill? Again, theoretically speaking..
TUSCUMBIA, Mo. (AP) Construction begins on Mo. bridge, believed to be first project under federal stimulus plan. (APNEWSALERT) (3:53 PM 2/17/09)
azurite writes:
Could it be that a sufficient number of wealthy people have been hurt by Madoff's schemes that the laws might be changed?
Except that they are not wealthy any more, therefore, no longer influential.
Mr Nantucket, thanks for that! Just another bit of "faith" placed in the system I suppose (that there playing by the same rules/not gaming the system too bad).
Is the change in composition the reason why the DJIA and S&P occasionally open differently from their previous close (stupid question, it must be)? Maybe a better question is when/how often can they make changes to the makeup of the S&P500 and DJIA?
Thanks again!
Cn
watching this with no horse in the game anymore other than me, my wife and my kids - sure makes it funnier to watch.
oh wait.
"therefore, no longer influential"
sad and probably true.
but save those tears for the next few dozen 'hedge funds' revealed as total frauds.
stamford = scamford
FYI: CR updated the graphs with today's data.
Godspeed | 02.17.09 - 4:44 pm
The first effect will be seen in 2 days. The planning commitee for Shovel Ready Project 6# will place an order for 3 General Tso's to be delivered. It will be paid by CC, which in turn will be paid by these funds.
The owner of Wu's Carry Out will use this money to expand his operation. Thusly creating jobs for 700,000 people.
We'll just rename the GD, Depression I. It worked in The Great War, renaming it WWI, quickly followed by WWII.
We are now in GDII.
Not that we're counting, or anything...
Anonymous writes:
People blaming Obama for doing nothing never ceases to amaze me. These are the same "free market" capitalists who call socialism, let the markets decide, that is until it hits them in their wallets and then they want govt. intervention in the markets.
Anonymous | 02.17.09 - 4:38 pm | #
When you announce that you have a plan you better damn well have a plan.
I have close family that works for US Bank. The party line is they are being proactive to the economic crisis with the cuts they are making.
Anyone have a reason they have crashed so hard lately?
20-Nov-08\t7,552.29
17-Feb-09 7,552.60
Well Erin there's a silver lining - we tested and bounced off the Nov 20 closing low
New Thread: Chrylser Asks for More Money, Plan on March 31st ( 0 comments ...You could be FIRST! )
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CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.":
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double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe."
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"Anyone have a reason they have crashed so hard lately?"
sure, default risk on all manner of debt has skyrocketed lately.
a better question is 'why hasn't jpm fallen to single digits yet
"That's an amazingly small margin to avoid the headlines being "Dow hits fresh lows as Obama signs stimulus bill"
Saving grace, Pres. Obama waited until the market only had 45 min
Wait until explanation of stimulas signed today...then swhtf
Unfortunately, none of our leadership has even heard of signals & controls lab.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 4:35 pm | #
I don't think that's part of the MBA curriculum. Labs are for people who actually "do something" for a living. BTW, would this lab have possibly been called analog computing" in other schools?
Gold will hit 10k/ounce before this is over. And a 1/1 ratio with the Dow.
Richard Russell called for a 1/1 ratio at 3k Dow / $3k gold.
If we hit 5 digits in the price of gold, then the gold's relavant market price will be in ammo and canned goods.
Must be profit taking.
The owner of Wu's Carry Out will use this money to expand his operation. Thusly creating jobs for 700,000 people.
The inclusion of free eggrolls will also cause the purchase of several containers of Maalox, Tums, toilet paper, and possibly Pepto Bismol, causing the local drugstore to hire an extra 3,000 cashiers as a second-order effect.
I think 7K for the Dow / 1400 for the Nasdaq / 700 for SP500 will be the NOMINAL lows.
Before you call "pollyanna", realize I said NOMINAL. That makes the drop to 1997 prices all the worse when you factor in all that inflation over the last 10 years (20 - 30% at least).
[He has told people that this will take years, not months.
double inverse recession]
LMAO! Good luck with that strategy. He'll go poof in a couple of months unless there's some miracle that proves him wrong.
"Capitulated (aka dc1000) writes:
watching this with no horse in the game anymore other than me, my wife and my kids - sure makes it funnier to watch.
oh wait."
Sounds like you are using dark humor to cope...better than too much drink and/or drugs.
Hang in there.
Except that they are not wealthy any more, therefore, no longer influential.
coinz --sad,true but delicious
.
As a comparative to today's dismal economy much pf the burden rests on Bush whose cost to America from 2000 to 2008 was $32 Trillion dollars in total liabilities and unfunded commitments for future payments.
In a speech a few months ago at the National Press Club, former GAO Comptroller General David Walker said:
"If the federal government was a private corporation and the same report came out this morning, our stock would be dropping and some people would be talking about whether the companys management directors needed a major shake-up".
The federal governments total liabilities, Walker explained, translates into a de facto mortgage of about $455,000 for every American household and theres no house to back that mortgage. In other words, our government has made a whole lot of promises that, in the long run, it cannot possibly keep without huge tax increases.
Obama inhereted a shit bag of immense proportations.
Geithner gives his little expose on future actions and the Dow plunges 300 points in a few hours..
Obama gives his 4,000th speech on how he has saved the country at his signing of Porkulus today- and the Dow plunges 300 points.
Uh, this isn't the hope and change I was promised!!
Martiki-
trying to tune down the booze and drugs a bit. been going to the gym. plus its before 5pm and the kids are still awake anyhow.
the demons come when it gets dark out....
there is no way we can fall into a depression as we did in the 30s.
Back in the 30s we didn't have prozac
BTW, would this lab have possibly been called analog computing" in other schools?
No, analog circuits is more general, including amplifier circuits and the design of basic digital circuits. Control labs are specifically for designing and creating feedback-based control systems using specialized frequency analysis techniques. You'll use feedback loops in analog circuits but not with the same kind of detail.
Modern control theory consists of multiplying a bunch of matrices together until your head hurts.
Martiki-
oh yeah, that and humor.
and just pure unadulterated capitulation
my job now is gaming the system. i'm going to see just how long i can go without making any kind of payment the bank for my house and stay here. 60+ days and counting. and they haven't even called yet.
Sorry, I still think todays decline needs to be dated as starting this past Fall. That waterfall decline in GD1 and today need to be nearly coincident.
Citizen AllenM writes:
MLM he has too, and buy golly, he most likely will.
After the beating he took on bipartisanship, he will be blasting the markets with dynamite.
That stimulus package was just a warmup- in other words, the bipartisan way sucked, so now he does the full FDR nationalization, along with the old Home Owners Loan Corp.
Just a guess, but I usually am right.
Now the gloves come off.
AllenM
In my view, the repubs are the ones who took a beating on bipartisanship. they are now weakened, and Obama is strengthened. The poll numbers show that, and so, too, does the current state of positioning on issues.
The Repub Party is fractured. The Governors applaud the stimulus, the House opposes unanimously, the Senate all but the three needed to pass it. It is obvious that the House and Senate Repubs are playing games while the country sinks.
Obama's overtures to the Repubs make it look even worse. He met with them more than Bush did. The WH just released photo spreads of meetings with Repubs.
Not much of this happened by chance. Obama set them up.
Anyone have a reason they have crashed so hard lately?
Cut Bait | 02.17.09 - 4:47 pm | #
I was a few days late on my mortgage payment last month. Sorry!
What do you call it when the market plunges 300 points?
Tuesday. {{ducks}}
Right... that's 3 pennies on any single stock, or one penny on three different ones.
Eric | 02.17.09 - 4:38 pm | #
Out of 40. With the depressed ones weighted lower.
Back to 1997?
Some Investor Guy | 02.17.09 - 4:27 pm | #
Call me when you get to 77, cause that is where this is headed.
LMAO! Good luck with that strategy. He'll go poof in a couple of months unless there's some miracle that proves him wrong.
bearly | 02.17.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Be careful making a conclusion before finding a story. Be careful with looking for "red alerts". That is no different than going out to buy tarps and duct tape because the threat level has hit red. Politics is imposed on us. It is meant to divide and conquer. I'm neither a circus show or a farm yard animal.
Someone mentioned over the weekend that as financials tank further and further they'll have less money to spend on lobbying. While they still command a lot of influence, let's not forget that some of the self correcting mechanisms are in place.
Come on Obama. Grow a pair.
It's time to clean house at these cesspool banks.
Angry Saver | 02.17.09 - 4:32 pm | #
The opportunity to go down as a Teddy type trust buster should be irresistible, I should think. I just don't think Timmy is quite the right guy.
While they still command a lot of influence, let's not forget that some of the self correcting mechanisms are in place.
double inverse recession | 02.17.09 - 5:09 pm | #
Excellent point. Also as these guys lose the ability to afford Citi Field and the Senator from City. Others (preferably good banks) will take thier place. What is Enron field called now?
Unfortunately, none of our leadership has even heard of signals & controls lab.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 4:35 pm
6.002?
Nardelli- "we were AWARDED $4b"
What an assbag. Awarded?
The opportunity to go down as a Teddy type trust buster should be irresistible, I should think. I just don't think Timmy is quite the right guy.
Blackhalo | 02.17.09 - 5:10 pm | #
It is all about timing and preparing the field first. Do it too soon and you're political toast.
It is just like investing. It can be a bad time to buy a great stock.
It is just like war. Attack too soon, without enough preparation or without enough diversion of the enemy, and you are defeated.
What is Enron field called now?
Blackhalo | 02.17.09 - 5:13 pm | #
Minute Maid Park...
Citi Field to become Campbell's Soup Park... Because a kitchen just isn't big enough anymore.
If we hit 5 digits in the price of gold, then the gold's relavant market price will be in ammo and canned goods.
golden retriever 4:50 pm
The Dow could easily return to a nominal 10k. Consider that the Zimbabwe stock market is outperforming all others. In real terms, I see the Dow falling to 4k at least.
So yes, I agree with the point about ammo and food.
Looks like the New Depression will be extended until around 2019 with the drumbeat of a new "stimulus" every 3 or 4 months. Lean times ahead for most folks.
Joe: "It is obvious that the House and Senate Repubs are playing games while the country sinks."
So are the Cons on this board. It has been enlightening to watch how quickly the Righties went from defending the Republican fascist movement to B-b-both Sides Did It!
There is no cause to show respect for open treason.
No. More. Con. Lies.
take a name ass wipe writes:
18 more months and a further 38% decline in the markets sounds about right to me. George Bush, meet Herbert Hoover.
take a name ass wipe | 02.17.09 - 4:33 pm | #
4800 +/- DOW....Damn that would incite fires, riots, and wholesale looting in all 50 States.
Adjusted for inflation/deflation and prob higher dividend payouts in the 1929 era, this bear is prob just as bad as the 1929-31 bear.
And that one had an 80% or so decline ahead of it!
But... But....
The "No-Pork-Left-Behind" spending bill was passed ? surely the markets should be up 50% by now ?
Interestingly.. anyone see that Sirius XM went up 50% today (!) Some jackass dumped a pot of gold into the black hole of Sat radio. Oh well, I'm sure they think it's money well burned
TG-30: Treasury Releases First Monthly Bank Lending Survey
Treasury Releases First Monthly Bank Lending Survey
Despite Economic Downturn, Top 20 Banks Receiving Government Funds Continued Lending Activities; Survey Reflects Administration's Commitment to Greater Transparency, Communication Around Financial Stability Programs
I am beginning to consider a different atttitude about this. If one accepts the premise that peak stock values were based upon a combustible mix of deregulation, privatization, subsidies, evisceration of labor standards, the off loading of pension and health care obligations onto private individuals and the government as well as outright fraud, then declining stock prices may, in the long term, be a good thing, as they reflect a reality going forward in which a better balance between people making money from actual labor and people making money on money is restored.
Under such conditions, the values of intangible assets subject to rampant, leveraged speculation, like stocks, bonds backed exotic lending instruments and real estate can only go down (as they already have), while wages earned from work and real, tangible goods produced and marketed can only go up as a percentage of economic activity.
Perhaps, Dow 4000-5000, and equal values on other bourses, would be an rough indication that a necessary redistribution of income from the global rentier class to workers had occurred. Of course, for those who stayed in this game, this global Ponzi scheme, to the end are going to be punished severely, but, if you are young enough, you can start playing by the rules of the new game.
The recovery has started!
"Modern control theory consists of multiplying a bunch of matrices together until your head hurts."
I often wondered about using audio signal processing to recover market sentiment indicators.
Perhaps you could track stock performance without looking at a screen. Would several sampled at once be a symphony, or ear splitting?
Perhaps I need to get out more.
Where's my vacuum tube tester?
s&p broke the 800 floor....
"George Bush, meet Herbert Hoover."
The market pretty much bottomed on Hoover's watch.
I continue to wait for the Dow to hit 7000.
Richard Estes,
AMEN!!!!!!!!
It's about time someone here talked some sense. This exact set of principles, restoring all markets to their fundamentals, is what the silent majority of americans truly want, analogous to recovering from drug addiction and remembering your kids and grandkids.
It's why the government strategy of holding up values will fail. Massive deflation is both inevitable and virtuous for the middle class over the long-term. The short term has already been lost.
There will not be rioting in the streets, because sensible folks already understand there is hell to pay for the last 20+ years and they are willing to pay it for their posterity.
Why not use the current Dow to compare to the Great Depression dow? It would be more of an apples to apples comparison.
From the October peak of 14,164.53 to todays 7555, a 16 month period, we are down 53.3%, which according to your chart puts us squarely on track for a Neo-Great Depression. The S&P paints a practically rosy picture by comparison.