Seriously, I might want to play too. What's the best (easiest) way to check out the financial stability of a credit union?
Credit Unions are covered by the NCUA, the exact Credit Union equivalent of the FDIC. Credit Unions are more conservative financial institutions which, under constraints of a non-profit charter, mostly engage in the classic behavior of a bank, and not in complex derivative schemes that have undermined the current banking system. They're very local-based institutions, which means that they typically reinvest your deposit dollars into loans for your local community and for other members of the credit union. This also means that since they're small and independent, there is a lot of variation. If you want to know how strong or well run a credit union is, try going in to one and ask to talk with the manager. Go to the website and look at press releases and charters. You'll probably have only one to three to choose from. Generally, go with the largest or the best managed.
The thing I like most about my credit union is that I know that they did not engage in the kind of financial bullshit that got us into this mess. And they have no big lobby to wring tax dollars. And since they're non profit their model isn't to hit me up with frustrating fees.
The patient is hemmoraging people and cash....just a matter of time before a flatline on the monitor....throwing money is like putting them on life support....
What is the point of this "plan"? Why not just declare BK and get the job done? No point in forestalling the inevitable. This is only good for GM bondholders and those that wrote CDS protection on GM debt.
GM has GOT to be kidding. This might be Obama and Congresses last money request before the money-tree wilts and dies. It will be funded - to the detriment of America.
I am about to tell you about some ominous numbers. I will put a chart out as soon as I compile the numbers.
This is a very disturbing trend. It is probably the result of a huge increase in the volume, but I have not been able to be a firsty and I am near capitulation on this matter.
I have tried hundreds of times but I am not even close. Has anyone else had similar experiences in this matter?
I found an article that said GM had about 73,000 employees (as of last week) so this will take them down to 26,000. Calculated Risk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:19 pm | #
Seems a little extreme to me.... but who am I to blow against the wind....
"this thing is starting to turn along with my stomach..."
I know how it is. OK, you can tell yourself that all living organisms must change or die, and that includes social organisms. There must, eventually, at some time, be a new dispensation, a new order of things.
But the sense of alarm and dislocation is ever-present. And then, one doesn't know what sort of new order may come about. The hopes of 1789 became the specter of the guillotine. The hopes of 1917 became the gold mines of Magadan.
The hopes of....? Take a deep breath. Whatever is arriving among us will be here before we know it.
Still a fantasy plan. The auto industry has at least 33% excess production so GM should be cutting something more like 80,000 jobs, based on those Wiki estimates. Throw in their infamously bloated managements and marketing and it's probably more like 100,000. Even according to their plans they can't survive below 11.5M auto sales/year and here we are at 10M.
So how long does the Obama administration have to respond?
On behalf of Senator Roland Burris, I congratulate Club Progresso on its unquestioning support in these difficult times, speaking truth to power in exposing the charges against him as mere hate speech. Keep those benjamins coming so he can knuckle up against the buckwilding crackers trying to jack your 60th vote.
We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town.
You say: Let it die. But it doesn't end there. If you think it does you are looking through narrow slits, like the old Inuits through their ice goggles.
Hi all-- OT but just a reminder-- that Frontl;ine thingy on "Inside the Meltdown" is on tonight.
Also-- heard today somewhere that Chase credit cards is raising their rates for "selected clients" and plans to charge them a $120 buck a year annual fee.-- eek! I've had a Chase card forever at 5.99%-- hope I dont get one of those nastygrams for being a deadhead.
Also, on last thread about Chrysler, somebody mentioned K cars. I wound up with my Dad's Aries, & drove it as a beater for years, much to my teenage daughter's embarrassment. You could not kill that car. It was over 200K miles & still goin' strong, & then some truly non-picky thief stole it. (much to teenage daughter's delight)
"We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town."
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade
You wouldn't think that is funny if it was young teenage daughter. That is a prosecutable offense by your grandpa.
"mal writes:
Yeah Pavel, we're going back to the days when women wrote all the poetry, made all the prophecies and ruled the earth!"
That would mean we'd have to blame the women for our present predicament - if it all started with them. But Eve blamed the serpent, and that's the way we are.
"We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town."
Fair Economist,
Without employees GM has little bargaining power, makes sense to not cut to what is necessary. More workers => larger bailout => larger boost to executive pay
Here's a story that Tanta would have turned into a 3000 word blog post. An 84 year old WWII vet was the victim of predatory lending, fraud and forgery. He filed bankruptcy to stop the foreclosure. The court ruled the foreclosing party didn't produce evidence showing it had title to the note and deed:
In bankruptcy court documents, the party attempting to foreclose is identified as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc., or MERS, a small Vienna, Va.-based company employed by lenders to streamline the resale of mortgage loans and servicing rights. In that role, MERS claims an interest in tens of millions of U.S. home loans and the legal right to foreclose on those in default.
While such documentation has allowed many foreclosures to proceed around the nation, the judge in Vargas' case threw MERS for a loop, ruling that the company had no right to attempt to seize his home on behalf of unnamed plaintiffs.
âNo such unidentified parties are permitted in a motion before the court," wrote Judge Samuel L. Bufford.
Love, death and foreclosure
The story is long, but it's a textbook case of what went wrong in residential lending and what is now going wrong in bankruptcy court where parties who don't own the note, but claim the right to foreclose, are often getting away with it. Props to Judge Bufford for not allowing the scam to prevail.
FE
but I do agree that a 1/3rd reduction in force is prudent
if they have any lobbying dollars left, they'll use them to block South Korean imports until the US can import to SK. True it would hurt Daewoo in the near term, but better for their present footing in the medium term
Japan is different in many ways, but maybe they will act as a windsock for emerging market exports
Despite criticism from fellow Republicans, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina Monday defended his statement that the U.S. should consider nationalizing some banks.
Critics, including the chairman of Charlotte-based Bank of America and many politicians, have slammed the idea. That doesn't bother the outspoken Graham.
Politicians are worried about words, he said Monday. I'm worried about outcomes.
Graham said the government has already poured billions into banks with little to show for the economy. Bank of America, which has received $45 billion in bailout money, is currently worth $27 billion in market capitalization.
The truth is we've put more money into the Bank of America than it's worth, Graham said. That's not nationalization. That's just stupid.
Graham broached the idea Sunday on ABC's This Week.
This idea of nationalizing banks is not comfortable, he said then, but I think we have gotten so many toxic assets that we're going to have to do something that no one ever envisioned a year ago (and) no one likes.
His comments surprised many Republicans.
That's going above and beyond being a maverick, said Glenn McCall, York County GOP chairman and a Bank of America executive. That's saying that socialism in our country would work better than letting folks use their God-given talent to create and foster economic growth.
Rep. Sue Myrick of Charlotte called nationalization absolutely a no-no.
I can't even believe that Lindsey would say that, she said. I mean the government running the banks? Talk about a disaster.
Bank of America Chairman Ken Lewis last week called the notion of nationalization absurd.
I've never had anybody even hint at it, he told CNBC.
But Graham said he was talking about majority ownership of some banks, not complete nationalization of them all. The government already has a stake in some.
Banks have been the main recipients of the more than $350 billion doled out so far of the $700 billion in so-called TARP money Congress approved last year, and billions more in other federal help. Critics say there's been little to show for it.
It would be smarter from a taxpayer point of view to take them over and make them (successful) than it would be just to sit back and write checks or let them fail, Graham said. We need to cut our losses.
Graham would consider temporary federal control of some banks. He discussed his proposal Monday during a roundtable with S.C. business leaders and economists at the University of South Carolina. Some welcomed his proposals.
It's an idea that needs to be explored seriously and I'm glad he's taken the leadership, said USC economist Douglas Woodward.
Graham said nationalization or at least a form of it is just an option.
It's not responsible to take options off the table that might work, he said. I never suggested that the government take over every bank in America. I did say it might be better in some cases to take over a bank and restructure it.
This insecure little boy would like to remind the gathered folk that Friday is option expiry. PM's rocking along. Will they spike? Or will they tank? Will silver spike and gold tank? Will..., aw fugedaboudit
obama had a nice meeting with the business council. so many great people in one room. if anyone can get us out of this mess, it's the captains of industry.
On the Clock(Unrated) writes: Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
Why not lay off all the workers and keep the bloated management. The government would have to pay GM only about $1 billion per year. And the management could tour America in rented toyotas giving speeches about how great free enterprise really is and how lower taxes will fix everything...
Asking working Americans to give them another $17Bil while slashing 20% of their workers is the definition of chutzpah. Let them go down in flames along with the worthless banks and anyone holding their trillion $ in CDS
Very good TED Talk talking about the financial crisis and the big picture from a us perspective
Thanks very much! Great talk but I especially appreciated his future vision.
My vision of the future is very much in line with his. There is no way that we as a species can compete with the next wave of technology even as cyborgs. It will be a reset in many more ways than one.
I posted this a while ago when you were absent from the board (formatting is horrible as I did it in Word and then pasted it into CR Companion).
On the Clock(Unrated) writes: \tLong-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place. \t On the Clock | \t \t \t \t02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | # On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
Think of it as a positive sign. When the unwashed masses are trolling CR, we have to be near a bottom. Like another version of the magazine-cover indicator.
I feel sorry for GM (the company, not its shareholders or its unions.)
They are now making GREAT CARS. The new Corvette ZR1 is about the best sports car in the world, yes that includes Ferraris and Lambos. You should see the Top Gear review of it.
Those cars are designed by white-collar workers. Engineers and some management. Yet the biggest job cuts are in those ranks. This is ridiculous!
They should keep their good white-collar employees and start heavy cuts at the union level. This should be enforced by whoever is overseeing restructuring.
Chrysler's plan was bragging about 4 (FOUR) models getting 28 mpg or better. Wow. My 1985 Toyota has gotten that in total mileage since I bought it in 97 (it's my toy now).
but I do agree that a 1/3rd reduction in force is prudent
As an honest company, of course. But, as you point out, GM may make more using its employment as bailout bait than to make cars. Kind of like how for years it was effectively a finance company that made cars on the side.
GM's viable plan - get another $16B of US taxpayer money, so they can shut down production in the US, move all business to the Caymans and Dubai, and fire up the South American and Chinese plants.
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
I'm really liking the advertisement for GMAC bank's CDs that are on Bloomie right after Waggoner got done talking.
On the America-thon...
What if they held one? Would anyone on here contribute? Or would the general sense be that it is a lost cause and any money thrown at the problem would all be for naught?
" Chryslers product line is a key component of its Viability Plan. In 2010, the Company will launch four highly successful platforms: a new Jeep Grand Cherokee, a new Dodge Charger, a new Dodge Durango and a new Chrysler 300 (the most awarded car in automotive history since its launch in 2005). The Chrysler 300 launch will be followed by a new, bolder Dodge Charger and an
all-new unibody Dodge Durango. "
You guys know how automotive workers have done a really, really shitty job of assembling their cars in the last three months or so, because they know "this sucker's going down"? The same thing goes for professional and managerial services. Everyone working on this dog is just phoning it in. So says my buddy.
CR - Here in the rust belt we're expecting a healthcare job crisis following auto going down - a lot of these new/improved facilities live on GM plans including pensioners not the govt reimbursement rates. Have you seen numbers on this?
There are probably bigger isssues than fonts right now, although, to a font guy, it might be more important than $16.6 B. If so, the lesson learned is to never trust a font guy.
"CR - Here in the rust belt we're expecting a healthcare job crisis following auto going down - a lot of these new/improved facilities live on GM plans including pensioners not the govt reimbursement rates. Have you seen numbers on this?"
It never stops at the technical fix. It ripples out into society....and it doesn't even stop there. None of us has any idea where the ripples will spread.
Nibbled to death by ducks, pecked to pieces by specialists.
Whichever comes in with the bigger request between Chrysler and GM should go BK. Save the other one, or try to.
My only question would be, what does a GM BK cost the Feds? Between the UI, Pension takeover, etc., does that come up to $16BB? If not, total the company.
We suffer from the illusion that if you put together a team of specialists you will produce an insight. Reductionism's dead hand. It's the chief executive's job to control this thousand-headed monster and steer it in one direction.
GM has 252k active employees worldwide. about 140k in USA. But they have over 300k retirees. That is the real issue, the drain they have with pension and retiree costs (health care). Their last two contracts were evolving towards the UAW taking those expenses over by 2011 with GM setting up multi-billion dollar trusts managed by the UAW. The economic tsunami sucked them past the point of no return.
Bigger issues are the dealer network at 6000 plus, suppliers owed billions, including what they are on the hook for with Delphi, and the bad paper that is GMAC. If they are allowed to fold up, you are looking at in excess of 2 million jobs in the first 90 days, 10's of thousands of bankruptcies (both business and personal) and hundreds of governmental collapses-city-county-state.
I don't know if we can survive this. We will have unemployment above 20%, with MI, OH, IL, MO, IN, PA maybe crossing 30%
$20B will look cheap in comparison. It may stink, but not like the thousands of corpses that we could have other wise.
Standard of living declines, usually permanently (in terms of what the average person would experience in a lifespan).
Previously existing relationships/alliances or political confederations often come apart or become more difficult to maintain.
Conflict intensifies (for a time), particularly local conflicts.
Quality of architecture and complexity of urban planning declines, even as urban populations may increase; buildings fall into disrepair or, if kept in some repair, are usually subdivided for other purposes. (U.S. Rust Belt cities are already well familiar with this process)
Good:
Health and nutrition often improve (to some extent)
Political awareness increases (although this can be exploited)
New land use patterns - (a) some abandoned fields cultivated again, also (b) return of wildlife habitat
"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning" - Henry Ford
Today more and more people do better understand so looks like we're getting closer to that revolution !
On the America-thon... What if they held one? Would anyone on here contribute? Or would the general sense be that it is a lost cause and any money thrown at the problem would all be for naught? Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm | #
What if? The Treasury holds them dang near every week.
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark?
If it has been said in the prior 200+ comments, I've missed it...
I recall during the first GM/F/Chr bailout debate on this blog, someone pointed out that only 20 percent of the parts are actually made by the three. 80 percent of the parts are made somewhere else (US/Mex/Can/India). We have to factor in the ripple effect of the 20% +/- reduction in GM et.al. on these other employers.
Then, we add to it what CDS mentioned, the ripple in healthcare (for example). IMO that deciding not to bail has some severe secondary and tertiary consequences.
$30B? GM must be taking its cues from the Pentagon:
"In what could turn out to be the greatest fraud in US history, American authorities have started to investigate the alleged role of senior military officers in the misuse of $125bn (£88bn) in a US -directed effort to reconstruct Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The exact sum missing may never be clear, but a report by the US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) suggests it may exceed $50bn, making it an even bigger theft than Bernard Madoff's notorious Ponzi scheme."
@Dickeylee - I know you're going to get hammered for those assertions but here's a different thought.
Even granting your statements are factually accurate, is it the role of the Federal government to provide union wages to workers at a business whose model is objectively non-functional? How does propping them up make them viable in the longer-term?
Yes, this dep-recession will eventually end but will the debt level be manageable with the new revenue levels? I really don't know but throwing out big scary numbers doesn't really advance discussion much.
They just don't get it. In their "Downside" scenario, they slightly revised down their near term sales and increased them a lot on the medium term
Year / Feb 17 forecast / (Dec 2 forecast)
2009 9.5mn (10.5)
2010 11.5mn (11.5)
2011 12.8mn (12.
2012 14.5mn (12.8)
2013 14.9mn (n/a)
2014 15.3mn (n/a)
How do they not realize, or gloss over with a straight face, that with a full employment of 150mn people that implying the average used life of a car is less than 10 years?
Are they unaware of the recent $200bn per quarter contribution of MEW/HELOCs that got multiplied as it passed throughout the economy? A cutback from 17mn annual sales to 14.5mn without significant changes in base demand is not realistic. I suppose they think those additional recent sales means more people will be encouraged to buy new cars while simultaneously trashing their old ones for scrap. Keeping up with the Jonses, that's their entire turn around plan.
Cars have a longer lifetime than in the 1970s, which they don't accept.
Elvis, nobody made your dad join the union. He could've worked at the vast majority of places without a union, but he probably liked the money that working union provided him, and you.
$125 b? C'mon, that's peanuts now... hang the /b/tards for sure, but lets not shoot the kid stealing gum at the register while letting the bandits empty the safe in front go scot free.
last depression:
As for car manufacturers probably a couple hundred bit the dust. The Dusenberg and the Stutz Bearcat were nice little items in their time.quoted
@Dust Bowling - touche. But I'm thinking more of the NPR annoy-a-thons where they guilt you into giving them money or say they aren't going to start a program until they meet a $ goal. Something where the return is - at most - a gift tote.
(I know I'm setting up for a joke about the yields in the short end of the curve.)
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark?
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:12 pm
I think HOPE NOW will translate
to FUCK YOU for the asshats asking
for us to throw money at them.
Never noticed the symmetry in both
phrases until now.
Let's see 2 wars, dying finance and
banking, imploded RE market,
dead auto industry.... & some folks
think we have actually hit a bottom
or will in six months?
I knew all these bailouts would soon be looked at by executives in Detroit and Wall St as annuity payments. They all expect the money will keep coming forever. It's become part of the business plan.
We'll be fine. We just need to raise taxes on those worthless entreprenuers and doctors who make more than $200k a year to pay for all this.
my mistake,
I overlooked the huge surge of wealthy retirees that are going to buy new cars in the US to tow behind their RVs
They never understood where the 15.3mn in sales came from the first time, and yet they have the gall to assume by divine entitlement they will simply retur
If they go BK, can I get a refund on my extended warranty? I can't imagine a dealer will do any work if they can't get reimbursed.
herman munster | 02.17.09 - 6:21 pm | #
You will be an unsecured credtor in the BK process, might get $0.01 on the dollar if you are very lucky, and you will get that in apx 5 years
Looks like 3 of the plants are in Europe. Might be a ploy to get cash from Germany and Belgium. And that doesn't include Sweden with 2 Saab plants, which they are trying to sell.
My grandfather had his head bashed in by thugs, er, company men, at Ford's River Rouge in the 1930s. Was never the same after that. My dad worked for Ford for 24 years in management. So I have a hard time choosing a side in all this. (At least he was with F and not one of the other two, and has some hope of making it through the rest of his days with a pension.)
GM expanded in no small degree by systematically destroying California's urban train system. Today, the suburbs that grew hand-in-hand with state's car traffic are fast becoming ghost towns, while the company that built the cars is going bankrupt.
The real issue about the DJIA is if you buy the composite average and hold it waiting for it to come back to it's original level you will be hosed beyond belief...
When they change out components of the DJ they don't magically change your portfolio for you... you will lose money with each transfer you do. Buy and hold is guaranteed suicide, buy and transfer to current component is just slow death by fees and losses as components are rotated.
Clearly you've never done business with a union....
nades | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:19 pm
I have. I used to audit a few. We once heard a local steward scream into a phone "I'll blow your f-ing place up!!!" I'm sure it was just a joke, harmless actually. If you union guys are reading this, I love you guys.
When I was a young lad getting in the Union was everything. I remember I had to wait x months before I could become a member of the AFL-CIO Teamsters and Haulers. I was so excited. Then I OD'ed on the job. Never got the card.
Anybody know of a good Treasury money market account that is open to new investors? I am in Vanguard's VMPXX fund, but it is closed to new investors. So is Fidelity's similar fund, FDLXX. I would like to advise my friends and family to flee to relative safety, but it appears that most of these avenues have been cut off. Any help is appreciated!
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark? FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:12 pm | #
As I said above, its was 11/23/1954 with a close of 382.74.
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Now that Geithner and Summers have seized leadership of the auto bailout they have a dilemma. A giveaway bailout will be very hard to sell as long as the Republicans get sexually aroused by a chance to cut union workers' pay and retirements. But, if they BK a core American company like GM, it becomes much more difficult to do more giveaway bank bailouts.
My guess for what they'll try it to force BK and then make it go as badly as possible so they can then claim BK is an unacceptable route when they get they next chance to use taxpayer money to fluff bank management bonuses.
If you union guys are reading this, I love you guys. lama | 02.17.09 - 7:22 pm | #
LOL! They certainly can make things interesting. Once had a cinderblock come thru my trailer window... Thank god the plumbing wasnt hooked up and i was in the portajohn at the time....
Today, the suburbs that grew hand-in-hand with state's car traffic are fast becoming ghost towns, while the company that built the cars is going bankrupt.
That's one difference between California and New York State (as long as we're discussing financially screwed behemoths): all of New York's major urban/suburban areas are clustered along a 200-year-old transportation corridor (Hudson/Erie Canal, which became the major rail line, which became the Thruway). The other areas of the state were never really turned into anything. There were no new urban or suburban explosions that weren't close to this old transit corridor. When it comes to transitioning from auto to rail, NY will have a considerably easier time of it than CA will, I think. It just means reverting to what was.
RE - parse it carefully... the company components that made up the DJIA in 1929 were not the same components in 1954. FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:25 pm | #
True... especially because you couldn't invest in an index fund then.
BTW, in real terms it was eclipsed in 1956. It can't tell you the date because I only have yearly inflation adjustments.
Miranda
Ford has 2, at most 4, months of cash to burn more than GM
Not even 1 quarter's worth. They managed that because the one smart thing Mulally did was to sell assets early, and take out loans collateralized by any unencumbered assets
GM has a few things to sell, and a few factories they could take loans against (would only happen from the government now)
It's not that they don't need money, it's just that they have the luxury of not being the first in line
If they both survive 3 more years, GM has a big step up on Ford
GM and others will get the taxpayer money, get a grip on what BO did today. Money for nothing and your chicks for free.
I Keep rooting for our government to continue to pile as much debt on the American tax payer as is humanly possible. This will insure that the final phase of the bust will be absolutely spectacular. The fireworks show for my entertainment purposes will be orgasmic.
It's not as if the American tax payer has any intention of ever realistically paying the foreign investors buying our debt back.
Bail everybody out for my viewing pleasure as unemployment soars and depression sets in.
"Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm |"
FSHB,
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
GM's plan is bunk. They appear to have omitted Saturn and Pontiac, but they really need to slim down to at most Chevrolet and Cadillac. They also need to get some "car guy" running the new company. I support bankruptcy, because that would let them get rid of their debts. They have already offerred every hourly employee a buyout. When they emere from bankruptcy, they will start hiring. Their arguments against bankruptcy are weak; now, when sales are down, is the time to do it.
"if they BK a core American company like GM, it becomes much more difficult to do more giveaway bank bailouts."
ding ding ding ding!
the autos are a proxy fight over the banks. force the autos to their rightful chpt 11 place and you jam the bank bailout agenda. the autos are toast one way or another, no sense in blowing a grand opportunity to hose these farking banksters. take all the money you would use for an auto bailout and just extend unemployment benefits, which would be more equitable for all workers too instead of pumping slush to the UAW GOTV machine.
They just roll away when the bulldozer pushes them, you dunce. That won't work.
Elvis | 02.17.09 - 6:32 pm | #
Not if you go at them sideways. Or against a wall.
bobn | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:51 pm | #
Humm, bulldozing cars, would be a nice stim package for CAT. On a more serious note, the talk of distroying phyisical assets to stabilize the market is simply the broken window fallacy. Be it cars, houses, or strip malls. Lets find some good ways to put those assets back to work even at very low rentals.
I go out of my way to buy American. My cars, my clothes, everything that has at least one American manufacturer. It costs more and is very time consuming. Up until tonight I was in favor of saving GM. It is clear they are beyond hope. I guess my future cars will be Fords.
One must also remember that dividend yields were much much higher back then. Much of the increase in stock prices from the 30's until 2000 came in the form of reducing dividend yeids over time. Something to consider anytime people pull out the long term rewards to stocks over time (ie Ibbotson). Total return on a stock index (or dividend paying stock) can be decomposed into the starting dividend yield, growth of the dividend over time and a change in the price to dividend ratio (aka dividend yield) over time. but anyways the dividend was a big portion of the total return from 33 to 43 or 54, as the case may be. Back then the thinking was that as the jr security, the dividend yield had to be higher than the interest rate on the compay'y debt. The dividend growth potential was very much discounted.
i agree with you about the implications of bk. but i'm prepared to accept them if that's the price for pounding some reality into the brains of tptb. for a more literate version, see ee cummings "plato told him." (yeah, i know that cummings' rant was anti-war, but the point in my mind is the amount of force required to get one's attention)
anon: sorry to hear about your Chase experience-- I've always had a good feeling for Chase simply because they sent me my very first credit card at a time in my life when I really needed credit. I've got a really high FICO too, but no balance, so it'll be interesting to see if I get my rate raidsed too. Just for the hell of it, I think I'll charge something, & then see if once I've got a new balance, if they change my terms.
And it's sad too about GM & Chrysler & Ford--am originally from Chicago, & I know how much money the car businesses brought into & thru that area. I don't know squat about business models * whether the car companies are total truckups or not, but I do know it's an unbelievably sad day in America when the car biz is gonna get crucified largely because of a financial crisis brought about by greedy goddam Wall St.
Right, wrong, or indifferent, I cannot believe we're gonna bail out flipping banks, liar loan homeowners, & every other bad actor in this fiasco, but we're not even gonna try to save our own flipping auto industry.
I think its goddamned disgusting.
Somebody above said-- 'do you think GM will ever pay the 30 billion back?'-- crikey!-- Does anybody think the goddam banks are ever gonna pay back the hundreds of billions they've gotten?
So the formula is staring to look like:
We need (X) billions of dollars or well run out of cash by (current month + 2)
Seems like I remember numerous people here saying the company would be back in 6 months asking for more.
I guess posters were too optimistic?
Sell GM and Ford to whoever will buy them, for anything. Get rid of them. The US is in for years of misery. Obama is a vast disappointment. Latest stupidity: sending more troops to Afghanistan. Sure, what this country needs when it is financially at the end of its tether is more money spent on a stupid imperial war that can't be won. Very very bright of you, 'Bama. I had expected better.
According to Google Finance, GM had 252,000 employees at the end of September 2008, so I don't think they're going all the way to 26k total employees by way of this cut . . .
Back to back absurdity from two of the former Big 3.
This reads like a bad joke. They were asked to come up with a plan for viability going forward. Asking for multi-billions is not a plan, it's begging (or extortion).
GM is dead. Close up the factories, send the UAW workers and management home.
It's over.
They are a junkie who keeps asking for a fix. It won't stop, ever until we run out of money.
What will the GM dealers sell? They spend way too much on land and buildings for new car lots in the last 5 years and will not be able to make their payments. They will go BK even if GM doesn't.
Start a Saturn dealership by buying a BK GM dealership's real estate for penny's on the dollar. Good way to go.
Anytime I see something screech across a room and latch onto someones neck, and the guy screams and tries to get it off, I have to laugh, because what is that thing.
dump them on the Chinese, if they'll be decent enough to take them. they might like some entry into the US car market in the future. they'll be making all our cars soon anyway. why delay? like we have on the banks.
How's that working out for ya, sexy? gab | 02.17.09 - 6:23 pm | #
Anyone shorting the dollar now is nuts. So much debut out side the US is denomiated in USD that its a fools play. Not to mention the rest of the world is imploding just as fast....
Turn 'em into a government-majority-owned entity that makes nothing but electric and next-gen hybrid cars and trucks. When the govt. gets its money back plus interest, they can re-establish as a private company with the proceeds from their minority-ownership.
What could have possibly given these guys the idea that if you went to Washington and asked for a ridiculous sum of money, that they would turn right around and dole it out?!
I'll stop pimping credit unions now. Sorry for spamming the comments guys. I just think that they're a good institution, they aren't tainted with government tarp money (mostly), and by using them I can avoid contributing to the bastards that destroyed our country.
scone writes:
Like Eric Clapton, the car companies have been dead for some time, they just don't know it. Let them all die.
scone | 02.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
There was that electric car that GM made and then took away. I think that was their death since people know they caused their own trouble when they could have capitalized at $4 gas.
This is exactly what was predicted months ago with the first go-around when the exec's flew private planes into D.C.
They'll be back again and again to steal from your future.
Isn't there a hospice someplace for these miserable companies. Where they can go die with a little dignity, instead of begging for a quarter like a common drug-addled Atlantic City she-male prostitute?
What an amazing thing. Empty houses in Dubai because debtors bailed out of country because they feared Debtors prison, prison space which would require money and effort to build, so that their own houses could sit empty and unsold.
Meanwhile, back in the United States, we have thousands of houses empty as people double up into apartments and pup tents. Nobody is working so they can't buy a car, so car guys are laid off, which means they sit around, too, which is good because it means they don't need a car to drive to work.
Everything grinds to halt and everyone can sit quietly at Starbucks (as long as they're still open) and discuss the "discipline of The Market".
Example of excuses I heard CEO throw out there, with the obvious implication that none of these are the fault of Chrysler:
"The credit crisis"
"Economic Weakness"
"Industry-wide Sales Decline"
Do these issues not affect every other business in America? What's the criteria we pick to choose the public-funded survivors?
Companies that produce an uncompetitive product with a bloated cost structure? Companies that refuse to innovate and respond to the changing energy reality? Companies that changed their business model to rely on crazy finance for profits?
They don't deserve one and they know it. But they know from experience that Washington is full of idiots so why not try? More likely than not the Idiots in Charge will hand over the dough.
It's all hopeless. End of this year / early next year Chinese cars make their US debut. China can build an entire car for less than GM's pension obligations per car (and that was back when GM was selling far more cars).
GM / Ford / Chrysler are dead mfrs walking.
Marx was right: in a "free" market, wages tend to subsistence levels. This fundamental law / flaw in capitalism was mitigated by minimum-wage and other labor (incl. unionization) laws. However this fix breaks apart when massive labor pools like China, India, etc. do not offer similar protections and price guarantees.
Stupid middle-class Americans shrugged off when manufacturing jobs went away, enjoying their cheaper prices at Walmart. Greed, in the end, will ruin us. It is stupid to blame the government or the corporations - we are all (me excepted, I never bought at Walmart and never supported sweatshop labor) to blame.
Why not just round up to make it an even $17 billion.
GM is going down.
Wow
Why do you need money to cut jobs? Aren't layoff supposed to save money?
Nemo, why not round up to 50,000 jobs? Is there anyone left?
best wishes
GM asks for $16.6 billion
LOL. They will never pay that much back.
ouch ouch ouch ouch, that all I can say
To be fair, Saturn deserves its own spin-off.
Some thread music:
Black hole sun.
From the last thread:
Seriously, I might want to play too. What's the best (easiest) way to check out the financial stability of a credit union?
Credit Unions are covered by the NCUA, the exact Credit Union equivalent of the FDIC. Credit Unions are more conservative financial institutions which, under constraints of a non-profit charter, mostly engage in the classic behavior of a bank, and not in complex derivative schemes that have undermined the current banking system. They're very local-based institutions, which means that they typically reinvest your deposit dollars into loans for your local community and for other members of the credit union. This also means that since they're small and independent, there is a lot of variation. If you want to know how strong or well run a credit union is, try going in to one and ask to talk with the manager. Go to the website and look at press releases and charters. You'll probably have only one to three to choose from. Generally, go with the largest or the best managed.
The thing I like most about my credit union is that I know that they did not engage in the kind of financial bullshit that got us into this mess. And they have no big lobby to wring tax dollars. And since they're non profit their model isn't to hit me up with frustrating fees.
Might make more sense to spin GM off from Saturn.
So how many workers will be left Calculated Risk? 1000?
ot exactly a "nothingburger"
Dios mio.
.......................
Oh my god! He's dead GM!
Nostrovia,
Calculated Risk writes:
Nemo, why not round up to 50,000 jobs? Is there anyone left?
With all the people losing jobs or going on short pay, who is going to buy the cars? And how?
In the words of one of the Reuthers (?), they are firing their customers.
If GM shareholders have any equity left, then that's just so wrong................
cutting all those jobs costs ma
Keep pissing that money away boys.
The patient is hemmoraging people and cash....just a matter of time before a flatline on the monitor....throwing money is like putting them on life support....
Update: Nemo says 266,000 employees. Still a big percentage!
best to all.
What is the point of this "plan"? Why not just declare BK and get the job done? No point in forestalling the inevitable. This is only good for GM bondholders and those that wrote CDS protection on GM debt.
Do not pass Go, do not collect $16.6 billion.
With all the people losing jobs or going on short pay, who is going to buy the cars? And how?
In the words of one of the Reuthers (?), they are firing their customers.
True, I would never buy an American Car; I work for a bank. I'd buy Japanese.
GM has GOT to be kidding. This might be Obama and Congresses last money request before the money-tree wilts and dies. It will be funded - to the detriment of America.
OMFG F GM!
(re-joke)
Nemo, why not round up to 50,000 jobs?
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:16 pm | #
CR, you should know that real plans never involve round numbers. The numbers are exact, because that is a sign of good planning.
I am about to tell you about some ominous numbers. I will put a chart out as soon as I compile the numbers.
This is a very disturbing trend. It is probably the result of a huge increase in the volume, but I have not been able to be a firsty and I am near capitulation on this matter.
I have tried hundreds of times but I am not even close. Has anyone else had similar experiences in this matter?
I found an article that said GM had about 73,000 employees (as of last week) so this will take them down to 26,000.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:19 pm | #
Seems a little extreme to me.... but who am I to blow against the wind....
.....................
Saturn bailout request in 3... 2... 1...
From GM's 10-Q:
Employees
At September 30, 2008, we employed 252,000 employees.
e10vq
So the job cuts would only amount to 18% of workforce as of 9/30/08.
GM is not really an automobile company, it's a collection of automobile parts flying down the road in formation.
Nationalize the automakers!!!!!
ARW | 02.17.09 - 6:33 pm | #
I'd pass if i have a vote....
................................
ShortCourage,
I've had more jokers tell me that the "credit crisis" is responsible for totally unrelated things....
I think I might start using it....
Late to work = credit crisis
No rent payment = credit crisis
Wifes pissed I didnt wash the dishes = cedit crisis...
.....................
let see
the largest U.S. auto maker, surviving on $13.4 billion in emergency loans granted in recent months
and it wants another $16.6 billon
so that is $30 Billion.
Wow. Just Wow. Are they frickin' kidding?
1) how will they even service the debt?
2) how the hell can they even possibly pay this back
say they issues bonds....only compounds the problem.
Goodbye fellas. Good riddance.
If only Ford were president again -- The headline--Ford to GM: Drop Dead.
"this thing is starting to turn along with my stomach..."
I know how it is. OK, you can tell yourself that all living organisms must change or die, and that includes social organisms. There must, eventually, at some time, be a new dispensation, a new order of things.
But the sense of alarm and dislocation is ever-present. And then, one doesn't know what sort of new order may come about. The hopes of 1789 became the specter of the guillotine. The hopes of 1917 became the gold mines of Magadan.
The hopes of....? Take a deep breath. Whatever is arriving among us will be here before we know it.
I would pay $5 to whack a new car with a sledgehammer. New business plan?
PS... rather like this entire country
Please have respect for God and spell his name with a capital G!
Still a fantasy plan. The auto industry has at least 33% excess production so GM should be cutting something more like 80,000 jobs, based on those Wiki estimates. Throw in their infamously bloated managements and marketing and it's probably more like 100,000. Even according to their plans they can't survive below 11.5M auto sales/year and here we are at 10M.
So how long does the Obama administration have to respond?
I would pay $5 to whack a new car with a sledgehammer.
Been there, done that. See the '70s movie Americathon.
1 billion to Brazil courtesy of US.
General Motors to Invest $1 Billion in Brazil Operations -- Money to Come from U.S. Rescue Program
On behalf of Senator Roland Burris, I congratulate Club Progresso on its unquestioning support in these difficult times, speaking truth to power in exposing the charges against him as mere hate speech. Keep those benjamins coming so he can knuckle up against the buckwilding crackers trying to jack your 60th vote.
We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town.
-DTBJH
GM is actually laying off 251,999 people and asked that the $16B be left outside the main office late Sunday night in bags of unmarked bills.
You say: Let it die. But it doesn't end there. If you think it does you are looking through narrow slits, like the old Inuits through their ice goggles.
Hi all-- OT but just a reminder-- that Frontl;ine thingy on "Inside the Meltdown" is on tonight.
Also-- heard today somewhere that Chase credit cards is raising their rates for "selected clients" and plans to charge them a $120 buck a year annual fee.-- eek! I've had a Chase card forever at 5.99%-- hope I dont get one of those nastygrams for being a deadhead.
Also, on last thread about Chrysler, somebody mentioned K cars. I wound up with my Dad's Aries, & drove it as a beater for years, much to my teenage daughter's embarrassment. You could not kill that car. It was over 200K miles & still goin' strong, & then some truly non-picky thief stole it. (much to teenage daughter's delight)
I think I heard on CNBC that GM and Chrysler think they can start paying the "loans" back by 2012.
GM says it could need up to $30 billion in federal money by 2011
GM to reduce workforce by 47,000 worldwide
Yeah Pavel, we're going back to the days when women wrote all the poetry, made all the prophecies and ruled the earth! RAAARRRR
We rally hard tomorrow on GM plan for recovery
"We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town."
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade
You wouldn't think that is funny if it was young teenage daughter. That is a prosecutable offense by your grandpa.
What is the requisite standard for Federal government spending these days?
$100bn to AIG a month, or $100bn to an automaker for a year. Will this conversion rate remain stable?
"mal writes:
Yeah Pavel, we're going back to the days when women wrote all the poetry, made all the prophecies and ruled the earth!"
That would mean we'd have to blame the women for our present predicament - if it all started with them. But Eve blamed the serpent, and that's the way we are.
Actually, here is the Americathon scene I was thinking of...
YouTube -
"America's last car vs. America's greatest daredevil!"
All for charity, of course...
Wow, Elvis, just... wow. LOL
Granpa = GM
Ho = Congress
Did you need a diagram too?
This would appear to be the week when capitulation happens.
s0mebody writes:
I think I heard on CNBC that GM and Chrysler think they can start paying the "loans" back by 2012.
Just in time for the expiration of the "product specific safeguard" in the China Trade Relations Act!
Good luck with that, GM
Any information on how many of the 47K are US employees?
here is the link to the GM plan
http://treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/agreements/auto-reports/GMRestructuringPlan.pdf
and here is the link to the Chrysler plan
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ-20090217-Chryslerplan.pdf
and here a link to American Pie...the day the music died...
cause 1959 was probably the peak of the American auto industry. downhill from there.
YouTube - Don McLean: American Pie
can't take my chevy to the levee no more...
so what rhymes with prius?
"We used to laugh at Grandpa when he'd head off and go fishing. But we wouldn't be laughing that evening when he'd come back with some whore he picked up in town."
we might if she was wearing an Obama pin.
/ducks
Fair Economist,
Without employees GM has little bargaining power, makes sense to not cut to what is necessary. More workers => larger bailout => larger boost to executive pay
rick wagoner/bloomberg tv
6200 dealers 2008
4700 dealers 2012
4100 dealers 2014
$16b seems a little low. they should ask for much more. what can it hurt?
From General Motors to Preprivatized Motors?
Granpa = GM
Ho = Congress
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 6:42 pm | #
I thought the story was funnier before.....
Give it to Detroit rather
Than to Wall Street criminals and banksters
Could the little boys around here can it with the gratuitous prostitute jokes? Take your insecurities elsewhere.
"so what rhymes with prius?"
fleece us!
Spelling it out ruins it...
FallonPDX --
thanks for the links!!
Br'er Rabbit eventually lerned to stop hitting.
® | 02.17.09 - 6:25 pm | #
Only when he ran out of hands and feet?
On the clock, you're new around here aren't you?
It's spreading to main stream media.
Below the link is my earlier comment on the "Ponzi: SEC Charges Stanford" blog post. The current item is:
Homeowners' rallying cry: Produce the note:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Here's a story that Tanta would have turned into a 3000 word blog post. An 84 year old WWII vet was the victim of predatory lending, fraud and forgery. He filed bankruptcy to stop the foreclosure. The court ruled the foreclosing party didn't produce evidence showing it had title to the note and deed:
In bankruptcy court documents, the party attempting to foreclose is identified as Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems Inc., or MERS, a small Vienna, Va.-based company employed by lenders to streamline the resale of mortgage loans and servicing rights. In that role, MERS claims an interest in tens of millions of U.S. home loans and the legal right to foreclose on those in default.
While such documentation has allowed many foreclosures to proceed around the nation, the judge in Vargas' case threw MERS for a loop, ruling that the company had no right to attempt to seize his home on behalf of unnamed plaintiffs.
âNo such unidentified parties are permitted in a motion before the court," wrote Judge Samuel L. Bufford.
Love, death and foreclosure
The story is long, but it's a textbook case of what went wrong in residential lending and what is now going wrong in bankruptcy court where parties who don't own the note, but claim the right to foreclose, are often getting away with it. Props to Judge Bufford for not allowing the scam to prevail.
sportsfan | 02.17.09 - 12:21 pm | #
Tanta Vive
i feel bad for the dealers. they're good people. the heartbeat of america.
"Spelling it out ruins it...
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade"
You need to check out the end of the last thread. Otherwise, what I said is not funny.
just looking at GM's plan - page 113, GM says bankruptcy would ruin their market for cars - in China!
FE
but I do agree that a 1/3rd reduction in force is prudent
if they have any lobbying dollars left, they'll use them to block South Korean imports until the US can import to SK. True it would hurt Daewoo in the near term, but better for their present footing in the medium term
Japan is different in many ways, but maybe they will act as a windsock for emerging market exports
ROFL -hung by my own petard... thanks for clearing that up.
"The court ruled the foreclosing party didn't produce evidence showing it had title to the note and deed:"
I believe tanta wrote on that once.
Sen. Graham defends view on nationalizing banks
Graham: Ignoring possibility is irresponsible.
By Jim Morrill
jmorrill@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2009
Despite criticism from fellow Republicans, U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina Monday defended his statement that the U.S. should consider nationalizing some banks.
Critics, including the chairman of Charlotte-based Bank of America and many politicians, have slammed the idea. That doesn't bother the outspoken Graham.
Politicians are worried about words, he said Monday. I'm worried about outcomes.
Graham said the government has already poured billions into banks with little to show for the economy. Bank of America, which has received $45 billion in bailout money, is currently worth $27 billion in market capitalization.
The truth is we've put more money into the Bank of America than it's worth, Graham said. That's not nationalization. That's just stupid.
Graham broached the idea Sunday on ABC's This Week.
This idea of nationalizing banks is not comfortable, he said then, but I think we have gotten so many toxic assets that we're going to have to do something that no one ever envisioned a year ago (and) no one likes.
His comments surprised many Republicans.
That's going above and beyond being a maverick, said Glenn McCall, York County GOP chairman and a Bank of America executive. That's saying that socialism in our country would work better than letting folks use their God-given talent to create and foster economic growth.
Rep. Sue Myrick of Charlotte called nationalization absolutely a no-no.
I can't even believe that Lindsey would say that, she said. I mean the government running the banks? Talk about a disaster.
Bank of America Chairman Ken Lewis last week called the notion of nationalization absurd.
I've never had anybody even hint at it, he told CNBC.
But Graham said he was talking about majority ownership of some banks, not complete nationalization of them all. The government already has a stake in some.
Banks have been the main recipients of the more than $350 billion doled out so far of the $700 billion in so-called TARP money Congress approved last year, and billions more in other federal help. Critics say there's been little to show for it.
It would be smarter from a taxpayer point of view to take them over and make them (successful) than it would be just to sit back and write checks or let them fail, Graham said. We need to cut our losses.
Graham would consider temporary federal control of some banks. He discussed his proposal Monday during a roundtable with S.C. business leaders and economists at the University of South Carolina. Some welcomed his proposals.
It's an idea that needs to be explored seriously and I'm glad he's taken the leadership, said USC economist Douglas Woodward.
Graham said nationalization or at least a form of it is just an option.
It's not responsible to take options off the table that might work, he said. I never suggested that the government take over every bank in America. I did say it might be better in some cases to take over a bank and restructure it.
404
- CharlotteObserver.com
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
This insecure little boy would like to remind the gathered folk that Friday is option expiry. PM's rocking along. Will they spike? Or will they tank? Will silver spike and gold tank? Will..., aw fugedaboudit
According to Der Speigel,
the German government is also bailing out GM, or shall we say
preprivatizing Opel:
Fear of GM Job Cuts in Europe: German Government Considers Stake in Carmaker Opel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Protectionism, anybody?
Someday this war's gonna end...
I believe tanta wrote on that once.
Elvis | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
That's what I was thinking when I read that piece.
Oh my god. Put charges on the support beams. We're going down. The best we can hope for is a controlled implosion.
uh-oh. Third paragraph omits Pontiac!
obama had a nice meeting with the business council. so many great people in one room. if anyone can get us out of this mess, it's the captains of industry.
Borrow it from NASCAR.
On the Clock(Unrated) writes:
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
## Then stop it.
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade writes:
ROFL -hung by my own petard...
I had my petard removed when I was young to avoid such an embarassing accident in my later years.
the painting
The Death of Marat by Jacques-Louis David is in the back of my mind.
Hope is what you have when you have nothing left. Hope is for the future. The present requires more than hope.
They just roll away when the bulldozer pushes them, you dunce. That won't work.
Elvis | 02.17.09 - 6:32 pm | #
Not if you go at them sideways. Or against a wall.
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
it's sad but true.
Time for some cost-benefit analysis.
Does anyone have a number for what it would cost the PBGC if GM goes down?
And: Can this expense be offset by selling Michigan to Canada?
NONE OF THIS MONEY BETTER GO TO BUY OUT WEALTHY DEALERS WHILE THEY FIRE THEIR EMPLOYEES!!!
fallonxPDX
Thanks for the links. You would think they have some spare capacity in their marketing departments to at least choose better fonts
At least they sent the document by e-mail though, which is more than most politicians can handle
Why not lay off all the workers and keep the bloated management. The government would have to pay GM only about $1 billion per year. And the management could tour America in rented toyotas giving speeches about how great free enterprise really is and how lower taxes will fix everything...
Asking working Americans to give them another $17Bil while slashing 20% of their workers is the definition of chutzpah. Let them go down in flames along with the worthless banks and anyone holding their trillion $ in CDS
EHP,
Very good TED Talk
talking about the financial crisis and the big picture from a us perspective
Thanks very much! Great talk but I especially appreciated his future vision.
My vision of the future is very much in line with his. There is no way that we as a species can compete with the next wave of technology even as cyborgs. It will be a reset in many more ways than one.
I posted this a while ago when you were absent from the board (formatting is horrible as I did it in Word and then pasted it into CR Companion).
On the Clock(Unrated) writes:
\tLong-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
\t On the Clock | \t \t \t \t02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
Think of it as a positive sign. When the unwashed masses are trolling CR, we have to be near a bottom. Like another version of the magazine-cover indicator.
I feel sorry for GM (the company, not its shareholders or its unions.)
They are now making GREAT CARS. The new Corvette ZR1 is about the best sports car in the world, yes that includes Ferraris and Lambos. You should see the Top Gear review of it.
Those cars are designed by white-collar workers. Engineers and some management. Yet the biggest job cuts are in those ranks. This is ridiculous!
They should keep their good white-collar employees and start heavy cuts at the union level. This should be enforced by whoever is overseeing restructuring.
NONE OF THIS MONEY BETTER GO TO BUY OUT WEALTHY DEALERS WHILE THEY FIRE THEIR EMPLOYEES!!!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:52 pm | #
Or you'll do exactly what, Mr. All Caps?
Chrysler's plan was bragging about 4 (FOUR) models getting 28 mpg or better. Wow. My 1985 Toyota has gotten that in total mileage since I bought it in 97 (it's my toy now).
... Once more in English, Vike?
The present requires more than hope.
Comrade Janosik | 02.17.09 - 6:50 pm | #
Indeed. It requires lots of diapers and Zoloft.
but I do agree that a 1/3rd reduction in force is prudent
As an honest company, of course. But, as you point out, GM may make more using its employment as bailout bait than to make cars. Kind of like how for years it was effectively a finance company that made cars on the side.
That was a very depressing observation you made.
End of this year / early next year Chinese cars make their US debut.
Andreas | 02.17.09 - 6:34 pm | #
Several thing I bought made in China smelled literally like toxic waste. I had to throw some of it away it was so bad.
Given Chinese history with doys, food and pharmacecuticals, there's no way I'd buy a Chinese car.
sm_landlord,
"Does anyone have a number for what it would cost the PBGC if GM goes down?"
I thought the UAW ran the pension now?
"Can this expense be offset by selling Michigan to Canada?"
Offset would require a cash INflow.
Nostrovia,
I don't get it. What's the end game here?
How, HOW IN THE HELL are these numbers possible?
It's over. O-V-E-R.
RE,
I think the best way to describe the future is simply 'different'. Glad you liked the link, thanks for sharing your old post too.
Those darn Mayans and the age of Aquarius, were right all along.
Now excuse me while I blow the dust out of the cartridge and press reset for the global economy
We need more cowbell.
I think I heard on CNBC that GM and Chrysler think they can start paying the "loans" back by 2012.
Bwahahahahaha!!!!
Man, that is some funny stuff.
GM's viable plan - get another $16B of US taxpayer money, so they can shut down production in the US, move all business to the Caymans and Dubai, and fire up the South American and Chinese plants.
Congress: OKAY!
Long-time lurker who used to learn a lot more on these threads than I have been recently. The woman-bashing and race-baiting are killing the place.
On the Clock | 02.17.09 - 6:48 pm | #
Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
"Hope is what you have when you have nothing left."
Not exactly, CJ, but it's OT to explain why.
But briefly, look at it this way: You never really did have anything.
I'm really liking the advertisement for GMAC bank's CDs that are on Bloomie right after Waggoner got done talking.
On the America-thon...
What if they held one? Would anyone on here contribute? Or would the general sense be that it is a lost cause and any money thrown at the problem would all be for naught?
finance*
woo hoo - here's Chrysler's exciting vision!
" Chryslers product line is a key component of its Viability Plan. In 2010, the Company will launch four highly successful platforms: a new Jeep Grand Cherokee, a new Dodge Charger, a new Dodge Durango and a new Chrysler 300 (the most awarded car in automotive history since its launch in 2005). The Chrysler 300 launch will be followed by a new, bolder Dodge Charger and an
all-new unibody Dodge Durango. "
I can remember when Americathon
was fictional.
.
Anyone else looked at a few pages of GM's plan yet? See fallonPDX's post for links
They can't even consistently use the same visually abusive fonts
friggin communications majors
Hey, my friend wrote part of that plan!
You guys know how automotive workers have done a really, really shitty job of assembling their cars in the last three months or so, because they know "this sucker's going down"? The same thing goes for professional and managerial services. Everyone working on this dog is just phoning it in. So says my buddy.
They can't even consistently use the same visually abusive fonts
friggin communications majors
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.17.09
rick wagoner was pushing for a wacky myspace page
.
The plans are excellent. Hand over the dough and let these boys get on with the show. Let's make America great again! Enough of this negativity.
It may be bad to give money to Detroit.
But it is a crime to give anymore to BoA and C and the rest of the Wall Street banksters
CR - Here in the rust belt we're expecting a healthcare job crisis following auto going down - a lot of these new/improved facilities live on GM plans including pensioners not the govt reimbursement rates. Have you seen numbers on this?
I picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue.
There are probably bigger isssues than fonts right now, although, to a font guy, it might be more important than $16.6 B. If so, the lesson learned is to never trust a font guy.
LOL at the Chrysler plan:
Why we want $5 billion more taxpayer dollars in 4 short pages.
Font guys are usually on the down low.
Those font guys are going to be the first /b/tards up against the wall when the peeple rise up!
Legitimate question: what year did the DOW recover to its 1929 high?
aw, screw 'em. I'm getting mighty gol-danged tired of giving my money to morons.
"CR - Here in the rust belt we're expecting a healthcare job crisis following auto going down - a lot of these new/improved facilities live on GM plans including pensioners not the govt reimbursement rates. Have you seen numbers on this?"
It never stops at the technical fix. It ripples out into society....and it doesn't even stop there. None of us has any idea where the ripples will spread.
Nibbled to death by ducks, pecked to pieces by specialists.
I remember when GM came through town and shot all the horses. Still brings tears to my eyes.
These are not your grandfather's plans.
Whichever comes in with the bigger request between Chrysler and GM should go BK. Save the other one, or try to.
My only question would be, what does a GM BK cost the Feds? Between the UI, Pension takeover, etc., does that come up to $16BB? If not, total the company.
Let the UAW buy it, if they have the money.
The DJIA of 1929 was not the DJIA of the year it came back to that level... the system is rigged to look good but it's just lipstick on a pig.
We suffer from the illusion that if you put together a team of specialists you will produce an insight. Reductionism's dead hand. It's the chief executive's job to control this thousand-headed monster and steer it in one direction.
a lot of these new/improved facilities live on GM plans including pensioners not the govt reimbursement rates.
When the health care plan is a zero cost plan, what incentive is there by the provider or the beneficiary to reduce costs?
GM has 252k active employees worldwide. about 140k in USA. But they have over 300k retirees. That is the real issue, the drain they have with pension and retiree costs (health care). Their last two contracts were evolving towards the UAW taking those expenses over by 2011 with GM setting up multi-billion dollar trusts managed by the UAW. The economic tsunami sucked them past the point of no return.
Bigger issues are the dealer network at 6000 plus, suppliers owed billions, including what they are on the hook for with Delphi, and the bad paper that is GMAC. If they are allowed to fold up, you are looking at in excess of 2 million jobs in the first 90 days, 10's of thousands of bankruptcies (both business and personal) and hundreds of governmental collapses-city-county-state.
I don't know if we can survive this. We will have unemployment above 20%, with MI, OH, IL, MO, IN, PA maybe crossing 30%
$20B will look cheap in comparison. It may stink, but not like the thousands of corpses that we could have other wise.
What really happens in a collapse:
Bad:
Standard of living declines, usually permanently (in terms of what the average person would experience in a lifespan).
Previously existing relationships/alliances or political confederations often come apart or become more difficult to maintain.
Conflict intensifies (for a time), particularly local conflicts.
Quality of architecture and complexity of urban planning declines, even as urban populations may increase; buildings fall into disrepair or, if kept in some repair, are usually subdivided for other purposes. (U.S. Rust Belt cities are already well familiar with this process)
Good:
Health and nutrition often improve (to some extent)
Political awareness increases (although this can be exploited)
New land use patterns - (a) some abandoned fields cultivated again, also (b) return of wildlife habitat
"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning" - Henry Ford
Today more and more people do better understand so looks like we're getting closer to that revolution !
Now I understand why Chapter 11 re-orginization isn't a an option. GM isn't a viable ongoing buiness.
You'd have to be stupid to loan GM money. 30 billion... they'll never pay it back.
I had hoped they could be saved.
Danny writes --
what year did the DOW recover to its 1929 high?
In nominal terms, or real?
Nominal was 1940-something. '43 if memory serves.
Legitimate question: what year did the DOW recover to its 1929 high?
Danny | 02.17.09 - 7:03 pm
according to Wikipedia:
The high of 381.17 on September 3, 1929, would not be surpassed until 1954
Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I had hoped they could be saved.
BondsOfSteel | 02.17.09 - 7:09 pm | #
So did I...
As a kid I remember when GM came in and paved all the mudholes!
In nominal terms, or real?
1954 was inflation-adjusted
On the America-thon...
What if they held one? Would anyone on here contribute? Or would the general sense be that it is a lost cause and any money thrown at the problem would all be for naught?
Mr. Sparkle | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm | #
What if? The Treasury holds them dang near every week.
LIKE A ROCK
OHHHHHHH LIKE A ROCK
It'll be sad to see Saturn go.
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark?
As a kid I remember when GM came in and made my dad join a union.
If it has been said in the prior 200+ comments, I've missed it...
I recall during the first GM/F/Chr bailout debate on this blog, someone pointed out that only 20 percent of the parts are actually made by the three. 80 percent of the parts are made somewhere else (US/Mex/Can/India). We have to factor in the ripple effect of the 20% +/- reduction in GM et.al. on these other employers.
Then, we add to it what CDS mentioned, the ripple in healthcare (for example). IMO that deciding not to bail has some severe secondary and tertiary consequences.
I hate GM.
This is all just delayed karmic payback for the Chevy Vega. Trust me on that.
This is one of my ads on CR. I thought it was a joke until I clicked.
http://www.grantgenerator.com/1231/101/index0120.php
$30B? GM must be taking its cues from the Pentagon:
"In what could turn out to be the greatest fraud in US history, American authorities have started to investigate the alleged role of senior military officers in the misuse of $125bn (£88bn) in a US -directed effort to reconstruct Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. The exact sum missing may never be clear, but a report by the US Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) suggests it may exceed $50bn, making it an even bigger theft than Bernard Madoff's notorious Ponzi scheme."
Patrick Cockburn: the Greatest Fraud in US History?
@Dickeylee - I know you're going to get hammered for those assertions but here's a different thought.
Even granting your statements are factually accurate, is it the role of the Federal government to provide union wages to workers at a business whose model is objectively non-functional? How does propping them up make them viable in the longer-term?
Yes, this dep-recession will eventually end but will the debt level be manageable with the new revenue levels? I really don't know but throwing out big scary numbers doesn't really advance discussion much.
Legitimate question: what year did the DOW recover to its 1929 high?
Anonymous | 02.17.09 - 7:10 pm | #
Based on a quick scan of my daily data, on a closing basis the DOW surpassed Sep. 3 1929 on 11/23/1954 with a close of 382.74.
Page 12, Table 1, US Truck & Auto Sales forecasts
They just don't get it. In their "Downside" scenario, they slightly revised down their near term sales and increased them a lot on the medium term
Year / Feb 17 forecast / (Dec 2 forecast)
2009 9.5mn (10.5)
2010 11.5mn (11.5)
2011 12.8mn (12.
2012 14.5mn (12.8)
2013 14.9mn (n/a)
2014 15.3mn (n/a)
How do they not realize, or gloss over with a straight face, that with a full employment of 150mn people that implying the average used life of a car is less than 10 years?
Are they unaware of the recent $200bn per quarter contribution of MEW/HELOCs that got multiplied as it passed throughout the economy? A cutback from 17mn annual sales to 14.5mn without significant changes in base demand is not realistic. I suppose they think those additional recent sales means more people will be encouraged to buy new cars while simultaneously trashing their old ones for scrap. Keeping up with the Jonses, that's their entire turn around plan.
Cars have a longer lifetime than in the 1970s, which they don't accept.
I picked the wrong day to quit sniffing glue.
CDS | 02.17.09 - 7:01 pm |
not to nit, but i think its "week"
and "huffing" 
Elvis, nobody made your dad join the union. He could've worked at the vast majority of places without a union, but he probably liked the money that working union provided him, and you.
$125 b? C'mon, that's peanuts now... hang the /b/tards for sure, but lets not shoot the kid stealing gum at the register while letting the bandits empty the safe in front go scot free.
Ok.. Could you please sell Saturn to Ford or spin it off? Some of those Saturns are beautiful, like the Sky model.. I want one.
last depression:
As for car manufacturers probably a couple hundred bit the dust. The Dusenberg and the Stutz Bearcat were nice little items in their time.quoted
I read the Chrysler link. I was looking at a resort business plan today that had more detail.
Lets see--- huge union -- democrat controlled everyting --- cut the check.
@Dust Bowling - touche. But I'm thinking more of the NPR annoy-a-thons where they guilt you into giving them money or say they aren't going to start a program until they meet a $ goal. Something where the return is - at most - a gift tote.
(I know I'm setting up for a joke about the yields in the short end of the curve.)
When I was a kid GM came to my town and made everyone politically correct and humorless... oh, wait, that was your town.
Zuzu,
Chase just raised mine to 11% bcse of market conditions..800 fica score
bitched about feds paying on reserve and bailout money to supe...got nowhere, she said just close card or pay off monthly.
informed her that her advising customers to close a old cc card will lead to substantial fica score hit
she said oh well
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark?
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:12 pm
What do you mean by real issue?
anon(Unrated) writes:
\tThis is one of my ads on CR. I thought it was a joke until I clicked.
http://www.grantgenerator.com/12...1/ index0120.php
## I'm holding out for a pony. A young one. They eat good.
EHP,
I think HOPE NOW will translate
to FUCK YOU for the asshats asking
for us to throw money at them.
Never noticed the symmetry in both
phrases until now.
Let's see 2 wars, dying finance and
banking, imploded RE market,
dead auto industry.... & some folks
think we have actually hit a bottom
or will in six months?
Cars have a longer lifetime than in the 1970s, which they don't accept.
EvilHenryPaulson
Maybe they are only familar with GM cars?
Nationalization gaining ground...
Republicans, Obama signal support for federal bank ownership.
I hope so or else it's really going to get ugly.
Also no more bailout money for basket GM and Chrysler basket cases.
Elvis, nobody made your dad join the union.
Dickeylee | 02.17.09 - 7:16 pm | #
Clearly you've never done business with a union....
I knew all these bailouts would soon be looked at by executives in Detroit and Wall St as annuity payments. They all expect the money will keep coming forever. It's become part of the business plan.
We'll be fine. We just need to raise taxes on those worthless entreprenuers and doctors who make more than $200k a year to pay for all this.
my mistake,
I overlooked the huge surge of wealthy retirees that are going to buy new cars in the US to tow behind their RVs
They never understood where the 15.3mn in sales came from the first time, and yet they have the gall to assume by divine entitlement they will simply retur
If they go BK, can I get a refund on my extended warranty? I can't imagine a dealer will do any work if they can't get reimbursed.
herman munster | 02.17.09 - 6:21 pm | #
You will be an unsecured credtor in the BK process, might get $0.01 on the dollar if you are very lucky, and you will get that in apx 5 years
Looks like 3 of the plants are in Europe. Might be a ploy to get cash from Germany and Belgium. And that doesn't include Sweden with 2 Saab plants, which they are trying to sell.
My grandfather had his head bashed in by thugs, er, company men, at Ford's River Rouge in the 1930s. Was never the same after that. My dad worked for Ford for 24 years in management. So I have a hard time choosing a side in all this. (At least he was with F and not one of the other two, and has some hope of making it through the rest of his days with a pension.)
I'm beginning to believe we are having a 4chan invasio
GM expanded in no small degree by systematically destroying California's urban train system. Today, the suburbs that grew hand-in-hand with state's car traffic are fast becoming ghost towns, while the company that built the cars is going bankrupt.
General Motors' Destruction of California Transit
Systems
GM -- An American Revolution.
I've worked Union for 25 years.
The real issue about the DJIA is if you buy the composite average and hold it waiting for it to come back to it's original level you will be hosed beyond belief...
When they change out components of the DJ they don't magically change your portfolio for you... you will lose money with each transfer you do. Buy and hold is guaranteed suicide, buy and transfer to current component is just slow death by fees and losses as components are rotated.
hmm, that new post doesn't look so hot?
Whippersnappers, this place has had 4channers jumping into it for months now. If it becomes an issue, I'll have the url filtered off the site.
Obama will kick this can down the road and let Palin tackle it.
Clearly you've never done business with a union....
nades | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:19 pm
I have. I used to audit a few. We once heard a local steward scream into a phone "I'll blow your f-ing place up!!!" I'm sure it was just a joke, harmless actually. If you union guys are reading this, I love you guys.
When I was a young lad getting in the Union was everything. I remember I had to wait x months before I could become a member of the AFL-CIO Teamsters and Haulers. I was so excited. Then I OD'ed on the job. Never got the card.
OT,
Anybody know of a good Treasury money market account that is open to new investors? I am in Vanguard's VMPXX fund, but it is closed to new investors. So is Fidelity's similar fund, FDLXX. I would like to advise my friends and family to flee to relative safety, but it appears that most of these avenues have been cut off. Any help is appreciated!
Hey guys, address the real issue: what year did the companies that made up the DJIA in 1929 get back to the composite value reached at that high water mark?
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:12 pm | #
As I said above, its was 11/23/1954 with a close of 382.74.
Only 3 ways to fix the world's problems: the right way, the wrong way, or the Zimbabwe.
New Thread: Quick Thoughts on GM and Chrysler Restructuring Plans ( 6 comments )
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Now that Geithner and Summers have seized leadership of the auto bailout they have a dilemma. A giveaway bailout will be very hard to sell as long as the Republicans get sexually aroused by a chance to cut union workers' pay and retirements. But, if they BK a core American company like GM, it becomes much more difficult to do more giveaway bank bailouts.
My guess for what they'll try it to force BK and then make it go as badly as possible so they can then claim BK is an unacceptable route when they get they next chance to use taxpayer money to fluff bank management bonuses.
RE - parse it carefully... the company components that made up the DJIA in 1929 were not the same components in 1954.
If you union guys are reading this, I love you guys.
lama | 02.17.09 - 7:22 pm | #
LOL! They certainly can make things interesting. Once had a cinderblock come thru my trailer window... Thank god the plumbing wasnt hooked up and i was in the portajohn at the time....
.................
The U.S. auto industry died the day they stopped making Gremlins.
Today, the suburbs that grew hand-in-hand with state's car traffic are fast becoming ghost towns, while the company that built the cars is going bankrupt.
That's one difference between California and New York State (as long as we're discussing financially screwed behemoths): all of New York's major urban/suburban areas are clustered along a 200-year-old transportation corridor (Hudson/Erie Canal, which became the major rail line, which became the Thruway). The other areas of the state were never really turned into anything. There were no new urban or suburban explosions that weren't close to this old transit corridor. When it comes to transitioning from auto to rail, NY will have a considerably easier time of it than CA will, I think. It just means reverting to what was.
Insolvent at any speed.
RE - parse it carefully... the company components that made up the DJIA in 1929 were not the same components in 1954.
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 7:25 pm | #
True... especially because you couldn't invest in an index fund then.
BTW, in real terms it was eclipsed in 1956. It can't tell you the date because I only have yearly inflation adjustments.
Give money to Detroit
No more money to the Wall Street criminals and fraudsters.
The DOD and Pentagon are the biggest rip offs of taxpayer money ever.
115 Billion stolen and unaccounted for in Iraq
The Bush/Cheney crime syndicate
Miranda
Ford has 2, at most 4, months of cash to burn more than GM
Not even 1 quarter's worth. They managed that because the one smart thing Mulally did was to sell assets early, and take out loans collateralized by any unencumbered assets
GM has a few things to sell, and a few factories they could take loans against (would only happen from the government now)
It's not that they don't need money, it's just that they have the luxury of not being the first in line
If they both survive 3 more years, GM has a big step up on Ford
Oh my poor dear fools,
GM and others will get the taxpayer money, get a grip on what BO did today. Money for nothing and your chicks for free.
I Keep rooting for our government to continue to pile as much debt on the American tax payer as is humanly possible. This will insure that the final phase of the bust will be absolutely spectacular. The fireworks show for my entertainment purposes will be orgasmic.
It's not as if the American tax payer has any intention of ever realistically paying the foreign investors buying our debt back.
Bail everybody out for my viewing pleasure as unemployment soars and depression sets in.
"Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm |"
FSHB,
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
GM's plan is bunk. They appear to have omitted Saturn and Pontiac, but they really need to slim down to at most Chevrolet and Cadillac. They also need to get some "car guy" running the new company. I support bankruptcy, because that would let them get rid of their debts. They have already offerred every hourly employee a buyout. When they emere from bankruptcy, they will start hiring. Their arguments against bankruptcy are weak; now, when sales are down, is the time to do it.
"if they BK a core American company like GM, it becomes much more difficult to do more giveaway bank bailouts."
ding ding ding ding!
the autos are a proxy fight over the banks. force the autos to their rightful chpt 11 place and you jam the bank bailout agenda. the autos are toast one way or another, no sense in blowing a grand opportunity to hose these farking banksters. take all the money you would use for an auto bailout and just extend unemployment benefits, which would be more equitable for all workers too instead of pumping slush to the UAW GOTV machine.
commence flaming.
"You'd have to be stupid to loan GM money. 30 billion... they'll never pay it back."
How many banks have we the taxpayers loaned for what? Fed subsidies BK would be better then some of the banks in my opinion.
They just roll away when the bulldozer pushes them, you dunce. That won't work.
Elvis | 02.17.09 - 6:32 pm | #
Not if you go at them sideways. Or against a wall.
bobn | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 6:51 pm | #
Humm, bulldozing cars, would be a nice stim package for CAT. On a more serious note, the talk of distroying phyisical assets to stabilize the market is simply the broken window fallacy. Be it cars, houses, or strip malls. Lets find some good ways to put those assets back to work even at very low rentals.
FSHB,
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
Michael | 02.17.09 - 7:34 pm | #
Kitchens and heat...
I go out of my way to buy American. My cars, my clothes, everything that has at least one American manufacturer. It costs more and is very time consuming. Up until tonight I was in favor of saving GM. It is clear they are beyond hope. I guess my future cars will be Fords.
are we going to have the semi monthly mass transit discussion, right after the daily inflation/deflation discussion?
Anonymous writes:
In nominal terms, or real?
1954 was inflation-adjusted
Anonymous | 02.17.09 - 7:10 pm | #
One must also remember that dividend yields were much much higher back then. Much of the increase in stock prices from the 30's until 2000 came in the form of reducing dividend yeids over time. Something to consider anytime people pull out the long term rewards to stocks over time (ie Ibbotson). Total return on a stock index (or dividend paying stock) can be decomposed into the starting dividend yield, growth of the dividend over time and a change in the price to dividend ratio (aka dividend yield) over time. but anyways the dividend was a big portion of the total return from 33 to 43 or 54, as the case may be. Back then the thinking was that as the jr security, the dividend yield had to be higher than the interest rate on the compay'y debt. The dividend growth potential was very much discounted.
all-new unibody Dodge Durango. "
Dodge Durangoe. Like potatoe.
@dickeylee
i agree with you about the implications of bk. but i'm prepared to accept them if that's the price for pounding some reality into the brains of tptb. for a more literate version, see ee cummings "plato told him." (yeah, i know that cummings' rant was anti-war, but the point in my mind is the amount of force required to get one's attention)
anon | 02.17.09 - 7:14 pm
It's one of my ads too. This has to be a joke.
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anon: sorry to hear about your Chase experience-- I've always had a good feeling for Chase simply because they sent me my very first credit card at a time in my life when I really needed credit. I've got a really high FICO too, but no balance, so it'll be interesting to see if I get my rate raidsed too. Just for the hell of it, I think I'll charge something, & then see if once I've got a new balance, if they change my terms.
And it's sad too about GM & Chrysler & Ford--am originally from Chicago, & I know how much money the car businesses brought into & thru that area. I don't know squat about business models * whether the car companies are total truckups or not, but I do know it's an unbelievably sad day in America when the car biz is gonna get crucified largely because of a financial crisis brought about by greedy goddam Wall St.
Right, wrong, or indifferent, I cannot believe we're gonna bail out flipping banks, liar loan homeowners, & every other bad actor in this fiasco, but we're not even gonna try to save our own flipping auto industry.
I think its goddamned disgusting.
Somebody above said-- 'do you think GM will ever pay the 30 billion back?'-- crikey!-- Does anybody think the goddam banks are ever gonna pay back the hundreds of billions they've gotten?
BondsOfSteel writes:
You'd have to be stupid to loan GM money. 30 billion... they'll never pay it back.
Thats why they are giving them YOUR money.
Sheesh, dense I see.
Life feels so blase after a Red Alert high
Okay, I probably sound like an idiot but is 16 billion really that much money?
It is the equivalent of 4 new semiconductor fabs or about half of Harvard's endowment or about what? two month in Iraq?
It is four times the money that Saytam stole/lost and it is EQUAL to Time Warners Q4 loss in 2008.
If I thought it would work, if it would make a difference, I'd say "give it to them,"
the problem is that we don't trust them to fix their company for 16 billion or even 30 billion.
It is not the money, it is the TRUST
So the formula is staring to look like:
We need (X) billions of dollars or well run out of cash by (current month + 2)
Seems like I remember numerous people here saying the company would be back in 6 months asking for more.
I guess posters were too optimistic?
If they go BK, can I get a refund on my extended warranty? I can't imagine a dealer will do any work if they can't get reimbursed.
As GM goes, so goes the US economy....Ruh Roh Shaggy.
thanks hoopajoops..... I added your comment to my crude-but-effective "CR Notes" file to follow up.
What is the point of this "plan"? Why not just declare BK and get the job done?
I think when you file BK you need to show the Court your books?
There's no way the Feds can go for this.
Sell GM and Ford to whoever will buy them, for anything. Get rid of them. The US is in for years of misery. Obama is a vast disappointment. Latest stupidity: sending more troops to Afghanistan. Sure, what this country needs when it is financially at the end of its tether is more money spent on a stupid imperial war that can't be won. Very very bright of you, 'Bama. I had expected better.
There's no way the Feds can go for this.
Miranda | 02.17.09 - 6:21 pm | #
You haven't been paying attention? Don't double dog dare them...
And they won't Miranda; they'll give more taxpayer money.
In other words: continue shorting the U.S. dollar.
Calculated Risk --
According to Wikipedia, GM has 266,000 employees.
Yahoo! Finance says 252,000.
Still, 47k layoffs is not peanuts.
According to Google Finance, GM had 252,000 employees at the end of September 2008, so I don't think they're going all the way to 26k total employees by way of this cut . . .
Motors Liquidation Company - Google Finance
26K left who cares....that is a pimple and for $16 billion???
Screw them!
Just exactly how do you propose to pay this back, and when will you do it?
"I think when you file BK you need to show the Court your books?"
Ahhh! Is that it?
Didn't GM just invest a boatload of money in their South America plant?
Yes, give them more money.
Back to back absurdity from two of the former Big 3.
This reads like a bad joke. They were asked to come up with a plan for viability going forward. Asking for multi-billions is not a plan, it's begging (or extortion).
GM is dead. Close up the factories, send the UAW workers and management home.
It's over.
They are a junkie who keeps asking for a fix. It won't stop, ever until we run out of money.
and that was about 8 months ago.
Eff GM.
I have tried hundreds of times but I am not even close.
the_economist | 02.17.09 - 6:20 pm | #
âIf at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Then quit. There's no point in being a damn fool about it." ~ W. C. Fields
Sexynumbers says, "In other words: continue shorting the U.S. dollar."
How's that working out for ya, sexy?
The thing I like most about my credit union is that I know that they did not engage in the kind of financial bullshit that got us into this mess.
Really? How?
If my math is correct, this will cost taxpayers $34mn per worker laid off.
The remaining workforce will be producing cars for an already glutted market, in which producing more new cars is the last thing needed.
Absurd . . . all the way around.
What will the GM dealers sell? They spend way too much on land and buildings for new car lots in the last 5 years and will not be able to make their payments. They will go BK even if GM doesn't.
Start a Saturn dealership by buying a BK GM dealership's real estate for penny's on the dollar. Good way to go.
Anytime I see something screech across a room and latch onto someones neck, and the guy screams and tries to get it off, I have to laugh, because what is that thing.
(I never realized the thing was GM)
DTBJH
How little money can you earn to where you don't pay taxes at all?
dump them on the Chinese, if they'll be decent enough to take them. they might like some entry into the US car market in the future. they'll be making all our cars soon anyway. why delay? like we have on the banks.
Get the Cu's annual report and tear apart the numbers.
Br'er Rabbit eventually lerned to stop hitting.
Think the US will learn to stop propping up failed institutions?
Nemo, thanks. I was just looking for another source. That must have been one division only or something ...
best wishes.
Volker,
I talked to the people that run the credit union, manager and various board members, and asked them.
Credit Unions man, they are what banks used to be.
....the longer we futtz around with GM and Chrysler the weaker Ford gets.
42% of the money spent to prop up a corporation is spent in the last six months of its life.
(I made that up).
How's that working out for ya, sexy?
gab | 02.17.09 - 6:23 pm | #
Anyone shorting the dollar now is nuts. So much debut out side the US is denomiated in USD that its a fools play. Not to mention the rest of the world is imploding just as fast....
Turn 'em into a government-majority-owned entity that makes nothing but electric and next-gen hybrid cars and trucks. When the govt. gets its money back plus interest, they can re-establish as a private company with the proceeds from their minority-ownership.
GM should be proud. They did something impossible -- they made Chrysler look reasonable by comparison.
Has anyone else had similar experiences in this matter?
the_economist | 02.17.09 - 6:20 pm | #
I was first a few times before Nemo upgraded his Pearl script.
What could have possibly given these guys the idea that if you went to Washington and asked for a ridiculous sum of money, that they would turn right around and dole it out?!
Oh. Nevermind.
As I listened to the Chrysler CEO describe (make excuses for) why the company needs more public money, one thought struck me:
What about every other company in America facing the very same issues?
Why do Big Bloated You deserve a bailout?
What does this mean for Saturn dealers???
That would be $34,000 (not $34mn) loaned to pay for each worker laid off.
Like Eric Clapton, the car companies have been dead for some time, they just don't know it. Let them all die.
Think the US will learn to stop propping up failed institutions?
® | 02.17.09 - 6:25 pm | #
Brer rabbit got tossed in the briar patch... I don't think Brer fox will be tricked twice...
I'll stop pimping credit unions now. Sorry for spamming the comments guys. I just think that they're a good institution, they aren't tainted with government tarp money (mostly), and by using them I can avoid contributing to the bastards that destroyed our country.
While we are on the topic of cars.
My niece married a nice guy who worked for his father. Father owns a Ford dealership, largest dealership in the area they are in.
Dealership is closing end of march. Father is selling off stock and going to claim bk.
scone writes:
Like Eric Clapton, the car companies have been dead for some time, they just don't know it. Let them all die.
scone | 02.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
There was that electric car that GM made and then took away. I think that was their death since people know they caused their own trouble when they could have capitalized at $4 gas.
Bonuses for everyone!
General Motors | Corporate Information - Company Profile | GM
252K worldwide.
I like my credit onion, mostly.
This is exactly what was predicted months ago with the first go-around when the exec's flew private planes into D.C.
They'll be back again and again to steal from your future.
Isn't there a hospice someplace for these miserable companies. Where they can go die with a little dignity, instead of begging for a quarter like a common drug-addled Atlantic City she-male prostitute?
Who buys another GM or Chrysler product again?
Thar she blows!
Oh, yeah.
What an amazing thing. Empty houses in Dubai because debtors bailed out of country because they feared Debtors prison, prison space which would require money and effort to build, so that their own houses could sit empty and unsold.
Meanwhile, back in the United States, we have thousands of houses empty as people double up into apartments and pup tents. Nobody is working so they can't buy a car, so car guys are laid off, which means they sit around, too, which is good because it means they don't need a car to drive to work.
Everything grinds to halt and everyone can sit quietly at Starbucks (as long as they're still open) and discuss the "discipline of The Market".
Amazing.
there better be some kinda rumor that surfaces tonight....
this thing is starting to turn along with my stomach...if you can't keep the slaves working, invisible boundaries break down...
"Dealership is closing end of march. Father is selling off stock and going to claim bk.
comrade lurker"
So how many assets are in your niece's name now?
Like Eric Clapton, the car companies have been dead for some time, they just don't know it. Let them all die.
scone | 02.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
Sadly, Eric Clapton died the day his son died. He has been an empty shell since then. And I can't find fault with that either.
But on the bright side ... they said that since its' Saturn they'll agree to a 'no-haggle' bailout.
Tim! I have an idea: bulldoze cars to help the car market!
16.6 billion dollars would be enough to give the remaining ~220,000 employees a check for $75,000 each.
This company actively campaigned against virtually every safety and pollution law for the last 50 years.
Let it die.
Is there no end to the rip-off? Get over the xenophobia and allow any of GM's Chinese partners or suitors to just buy the dam company!
Tim! I have an idea: bulldoze cars to help the car market!
/cr/tard | 02.17.09 - 6:30 pm | #
Let's start with bulldozing some banks to improve the banking market.
"Tim! I have an idea: bulldoze cars to help the car market!
/cr/tard"
They just roll away when the bulldozer pushes them, you dunce. That won't work.
DIE ZOMBIE, DIE
Like Eric Clapton, the car companies have been dead for some time, they just don't know it.
scone | 02.17.09 - 6:27 pm | #
Are you trying to say that god is dead?
Example of excuses I heard CEO throw out there, with the obvious implication that none of these are the fault of Chrysler:
"The credit crisis"
"Economic Weakness"
"Industry-wide Sales Decline"
Do these issues not affect every other business in America? What's the criteria we pick to choose the public-funded survivors?
Companies that produce an uncompetitive product with a bloated cost structure? Companies that refuse to innovate and respond to the changing energy reality? Companies that changed their business model to rely on crazy finance for profits?
Okay, sounds good to me!!
Comrade Janosik writes:
there better be some kinda rumor that surfaces tonight
so we can reset our shorts?
Nationalize the automakers!!!!!
Or is it pre-privitize?
Seems most like my idea of the BK process. Bet it doesn't happen.
If they layoff enough people, the year end bonus won't need to be divy'd up as much.
let's see...one person to answer the phone, one to call Washington to ask for more money every three months, one person to count the money...
25,000 employees sounds about right.
Here is my auto bailout plan:
Declare Chrysler and GM dead and bankrupt.
Tell the retirees that the government will take care of them through special programs called social security and medicare.
Let someone buy the carcasses of out of BK, and even throw a few billion in government loans to help them get off the ground.
Elvis,
Not true. When they are parked like this, a bulldozer would be pretty effective.
Why do Big Bloated You deserve a bailout?
They don't deserve one and they know it. But they know from experience that Washington is full of idiots so why not try? More likely than not the Idiots in Charge will hand over the dough.
It's all hopeless. End of this year / early next year Chinese cars make their US debut. China can build an entire car for less than GM's pension obligations per car (and that was back when GM was selling far more cars).
GM / Ford / Chrysler are dead mfrs walking.
Marx was right: in a "free" market, wages tend to subsistence levels. This fundamental law / flaw in capitalism was mitigated by minimum-wage and other labor (incl. unionization) laws. However this fix breaks apart when massive labor pools like China, India, etc. do not offer similar protections and price guarantees.
Stupid middle-class Americans shrugged off when manufacturing jobs went away, enjoying their cheaper prices at Walmart. Greed, in the end, will ruin us. It is stupid to blame the government or the corporations - we are all (me excepted, I never bought at Walmart and never supported sweatshop labor) to blame.
Didn't GM tear up the trolleys? I won't be sad to see them go.
s0mebody needs a sense of humor, good pic though
"Not true. When they are parked like this, a bulldozer would be pretty effective."
Tim! we've cornered the auto market!
Are you trying to say that god is dead?
xxxxx
.
Nah, just moved on to another avatar.