Given a few common hardware store items such as a tarp and some pvc pipe poles, most GM/Chrysler products can house a family of 3. These companies are now viable again and I'm a genius.
I posted this at the end of the last thread, but I'm hoping someone will see it here...
Anybody know of a good Treasury money market account that is open to new investors? I am in Vanguard's VMPXX fund, but it is closed to new investors. So is Fidelity's similar fund, FDLXX. I would like to advise my friends and family to flee to relative safety, but it appears that most of these avenues have been cut off. Any help is appreciated!
TCA, I just closed my treasury money market account with vanguard. I'm going to just open up new accounts at local banks as I cross over the 250k limit. Is there some reason you'd rather do T-MM than banks?
I'm still trying to figure why they can't restructure on their own and then go raise money in the private markets. If all they need is help from the govt for DIP financing and guarantees for their cars so GM can still operate, then I can understand.
cr writes: However, I think the Chrysler plan is a joke and my guess is a bankruptcy is imminent.
## Politically, Chrysler is at risk because they went private and left the country. So, joke of a plan and that combined, BK for Chrysler. Nobody liked them, even when we were friends.
\tTCA, I just closed my treasury money market account with vanguard. I'm going to just open up new accounts at local banks as I cross over the 250k limit. Is there some reason you'd rather do T-MM than banks? Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:27 pm | #
It's my IRA. I don't want to take a 40% tax hit to pull it out.
Expecting O to demand any significant concessions from the UAW is a pipe dream, I am afraid.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:25 pm | #
Right on, Nemo.
There may be some window dressing concessions - as with the bank exec compensation packages - but we'll be pouring money into these companies for years to come.
Red Herring.....They assume that Q1 '09 is the bottom with sales slowly building throughout the next two years.
Better then Chrysler's 'give us money' plan however GM is essentially saying this IS the bottom (Q1 '09). They do not factor in the continuing market share decline (against Toyota) and this little problem of vast amounts of credit being vaporized that allowed them to achieve the Q1 '08 figure.
CR; you wrote:
"I've noted before that the current level of auto sales is unsustainable, and that sales had to increase. "
What is the mechanism by which sales will increase? Are you counting on the tax breaks? I re-read your previous post, and I don't understand why fleet turnover should not grind to a halt for at least a year or two.
Unless an automaker goes BK and their cars become unserviceable. Noe that might motivate some new purchases from the surviving automakers.
as of this morning Eastern Time, am told bondholders were the problem, not UAW. bondholders eyes on what happened at GMAC. comment from Congress source was that the bondholders are "piggish."
Are you actually suggesting we should loan GM a total of 30 Billion dollars?
Sure we may need to replace vehicles out there...my 1997 Honda CRV included.
But there is no way in hell I would by a GM and no way am I going to by another petro eating only machine.
I will hang onto the Honda CRV and replace and pay in cash a very good hybrid or an all electric car.
Which brings up another point. Who is going to loan to buy all the required sales of GM cars just so these jokers can actually pay us back? GMAC? Seriously?
"Many potential buyers are not able to buy due to credit conditions, so once credit market returns to normal (i.e. fiction levels return), the release of pent up demand will actually increase sales".
While I never have been curious about their business models, I don't get it. They want to close the Saturn, while it might have been the most promising line.
I mean, eventually the price for oil will climb up and who the hell would want to buy .. "like a rock?"
In this video Marc Faber, Dr Doomed, comes across as a moron with zero understanding of the Anglo-American econo-political system. Of course, he knows his customers, or audiencePrinting Money inflation dopes (PMIDs) and America is full of such dopes. Printing Money in the US is a myth. What is going on is nothing more than rearrangement of debt, or swap of one form of debt with another. But, that is too sophisticated for someone with an economic IQ of a moron.
This moron has been trashing the US Treasury bonds for several years now and what we have now in the US if deflation and USTs have soared rather than being worthless. He doesnt understand that soon the real Fed Funds Rate (RFFR) would be positive as YoY inflation rate goes below zero and, worse yet, the nominal GDP goes negative, YoY, at the end of 2009Q2 (it already was during 2008Q4, on a quarterly basis). Propagandists have a field day in a world full of dopes and there are no more disgusting American dopes than PMIDs. I have to deal with them almost on a daily basis.
The moron made a promise to Intel employees few weeks ago, during a visit to an Intel facility, that INTC will out-perform the US Treasuries in the next 5 years and later he changed it to 5-10 years and also included many other US tech Scams. This moron does not understand Deflationary Depression.
Craigslist of the day, this one specially pulled for mp and conjure:
Mobile Disaster Laundry Business - $95000 (Medford, OR)
Mobile Laundry Unit Designed for Response to Hurricanes, Forest Fires, Floods, etc. that meets all government contract specifications and more. 24' freightliner curtain van that includes:
- three 55lb Unimac Programmable Extractor Washers
- three 75 lb Unimac Reversing Dryers fabricated with Heat Exchangers
-25 kw whisper watt generator
-three Rinnai instant hot water heaters
Unit requires NO ELECTRICITY
20' Interstate enclosed equipment trailer with four 2000 gal. gray and potable water bladders and all needed equipment.
CR, Can you explain to me why US auto sales have to approach replacement rate?? It seems to me that you're ignoring the possibility of market share declines to foreign competition. Or the possibility that the retrenched US consumer will postpone replacement.
If current buyers of new cars can almost always get another year or two out of their vehicles in a pinch, and current buyers of used cars (which DO reach end-of-life) are in no position to buy new, why is current level of sales 'unsustainable'?
If Chrysler goes BK, can GM's supply chain survive? A lot of them are borderline right now WITH Chrysler's business.
How the heck is GM going to sell Saturn, Saab and (to a lesser extent) Hummer, now that they've integrated the parts with their other brands. Who'd buy a brand with Delco under the hood and dependant on Delco's continuing solvency?
GM should just do away with their fancy presentation and do like every other bank robber and slip us a note on a piece of paper...Give Me All Your Money or Else
Ok, it frets me just a tad as a Canadian to say this, but 'America' is a brand name. 'WE' cannot afford to lose the jobs. Ergo, we must buy the brand. Honda will be fine..Toyota too.
CR,
I will make note that it is only your opinion that auto sales will be a bright ray of sunshine in 2009 vs 2008.
With all due respect you did not predict this decline in sales, and neither did JD Power, Global Insight, or GM.
A lot of what could be said on the matter was put into the comments the last time you made a post on the topic.
In short by looking at sales per job, I correctly identified in advance (and trumpeted my horn along the way) not only the credit enabled sales capacity but also the sustainable rate of sales (where any credit only shifts demand, instead of creating all new demand)
"Exiting dealers generally
expect GMs assistance with respect to their facilities and other dealership investments,
such as new vehicles, parts, tools, and third-party long term contracts."
Another hand-out to the wealthy dealer...per the PDF...all you guys complain about the unions, what about these FAT CATS?
GM and others will get the taxpayer money, get a grip on what BO did today. Money for nothing and your chicks for free.
I Keep rooting for our government to continue to pile as much debt on the American tax payer as is humanly possible. This will insure that the final phase of the bust will be absolutely spectacular. The fireworks show for my entertainment purposes will be orgasmic.
It's not as if the American tax payer has any intention of ever realistically paying the foreign investors buying our debt, back.
Bail everybody out for my viewing pleasure as unemployment soars and depression sets in.
From previous thread,
"Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm |"
FSHB,
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
"If" they can remove Chrysler from the mix and keep the supply chain relatively intact there might be a hope that GM could make it as a going concern. Paying back the debt is another story of course. I suppose they could just give taxpayers a GM instead of their refund checks when it adds up to that level...
OT but from Eurowatch blog - best explanation of Japanese problems in 1 para...
So, what is going on here? Well, I will tell you what is going on. Without the benefit of growth in foreign markets Japanese companies simply have no future revenues to sell and thus no collateral against which to sell debt. And why is this you might ask; well because, absent a solid growth in exports, Japanese companies have to rely on the domestic market for growth (at least to some extent) and this is quite literally impossible with Japan's demographic profile.
If you watch that TED talk that EHP posted in the prior thread and look at the fast developing robotic capabilities then making these decision becomes a lot more complex. We as a society will have to decide what jobs we want to retain, not primarily based on economic efficiency but simply based on societal good.
Decision making is getting much more complex. Old value sticks are becoming quickly obsolete.
This is an early but very interesting test case for the medium term future..
--
Automobile industry is by far the most globalized industry and we know how best born-and-bred American dopes led by Crooks can compete. Sorry, no excuses. Everything in the US economy should be looked at, or analyzed, with the proper backdrop: An Evil Government, Rogue Economists and a Thoroughly Doped Population.
Then everything falls into place. I get daily confirmations of the above backdrop. Don't you? The process that created the backdrop is irreversible because dopes feed on each other and the Crooks watch with reassurance.
Optimism abounds in the motor industry, even in the far reaches of the South Pacific. From the NZ Herald web site;
"Car prices set to zoom"
Motor Industry Association chief executive Perry Kerr says the industry is looking at a potential 40 per cent price increase driven by the falling dollar.
Hmm! Suppliers seeking a 40% price increase on a consumer discretionary item in the current environment.
GM can dream about this being the bottom; people don't even want their cars. Its 2010, you finally get a job after being unemployed 14 months, it pays you 65% of what your last job paid, you're savings are nill because you had to cash out on your IRA early to make the inflated mortgage payments (and govt still swatted you with penalties). There are no used cars to buy because they all died according to CR. Some how you can get a $15K loan for a new car (the govt is still lending at 0% because no matter that it borrowed $4T to bailout the banksters and stimulus 2 and 3 the bond market never revolted - the miracles never ceased!). Your choices are a GM or a Toyota. You want this car to last you the rest of your entire life since you may need to live in it when you retire. What do you pick?
People buy GM when they have extra money and feel bad for America - its a sympathy purchase. When people want value they buy Asian. GM is done.
I had a 5 yr. old Ariens' snowblower with a Tecumseh engine completely die. Rod throwing clunk engine ruined disaster. Because Tecumseh engines are in freeze mode right now, I have been told by the three shops I visited to "buy a Briggs engine," or anything but Tecumseh.
So when the supply chain is disrupted (maybe already there), even owning one of these products puts you at risk. And going forward, when the shortages start, even a simple system failure could mean EOL (end of life) for your car.
Who'd buy a GM/Chrysler or possibly F at this risk level?
So, if only Chrysler goes bankrupt, will that then bankrupt the auto suppliers? If so, will the US have to supply debtor-in-possession financing to Chrysler to avoid bankrupting the suppliers?
If no DIP financing is given to Chrysler, and the suppliers go under, then GM and Ford go under, unless the US provdies the suppliers a loan or DIP financing?
If GM goes bankrupt, and the US supplies DIP financing, then GM gets rid of its penison obligations. If this happens, then the does the Pension Guaranty Fund go under? Then does the US have to bail out the PGF?
If the auto makers go bankrupt but the US supplies DIP financing to 1, 2 or all 3 of them, then no one will want to buy their cars due to the ucertainty, right? If so, will the US have to guaranty their warranties and attednant moral hazard? If the US doesn't supply DIP financing , then all three auto makers will eventually go Chapter 7 cause all their business wil go to Toyota and other foreign auto makers?
GM might be viable with just Chevrolet and Cadillac (might even let Cadillac go). Chevrolet could do a DX, LX and EX model. Apparently Pontiac and Saturn get the Axe; The 'GM' brand is nothing more than a re-badged Chevrolet, so it needs to go. Bankruptcy is best for them, because it will allow them to shed their debt. They have offered buyouts to every hourly employee, and they will start hiring after they are reorganized. GM's arguments against bankruptcy are weak.
If GM and Chrysler go under and cause some suppliers to go under, it would seem like a perfect opportunity for private equity to step in to support the suppliers that Ford, Toyota, etc, still use.
If you want to see the median age of cars/trucks/light trucks
Keep in mind that is the median and as the unsustainable/unaffordable credit binging on cars happened, it skewed the distribution to the short end.
If you adjust for suburban realtor mom and Circuit city manager dad buying each of her kids 2 cars from their HELOC; that is unaffordable should never have been sold -- the median age drops off to 12.1 years
Given the standard huge warranties offered now, it's fair to assume that quality is not going to decline any time soon to reduce the median age of autos.
Jobs:Auto sales is the way to go
At the end of the day there either has to be future or past income from participating in the labor force to pay for it. From that base you can adjust for rural/urban, or expected used lifetime of an auto
Looking at licensed drivers is wrong, looking at implicit sales required to maintain fleet size relative to population or maintain fleet age is wrong
You cannot assume sales return to recent levels unless you understand the chain of events that produced the cash to fund the sale
Heck if you want an off the wall comparison, look at what different types of farmers need to buy a new truck in terms of the goods they produce
If you're happy with the what once was, will be line of logic -- then you might as well get on board the $1mn average national house price and Dow 36,000 by 2020 bandwago
--
"CR, Can you explain to me why US auto sales have to approach replacement rate?? It seems to me that you're ignoring the possibility of market share declines to foreign competition. Or the possibility that the retrenched US consumer will postpone replacement. I think your 2009 outlook is far too optimistic."
Gavshire Hathaway,
CR should be asking you the questions and learn, but he is an economist. He can't help but apply economic concepts that don't apply, or work, at critical turning point as the one we have at hands.
Someone pointed out that there are two automobiles per American (per adult?) and we can have a 40-year low annual rate for few years despite huge rise in population.
Depression economics is beyond CR, even beyond KRUGMAN.
RE writes:
If you watch that TED talk that EHP posted in the prior thread and look at the fast developing robotic capabilities then making these decision becomes a lot more complex. We as a society will have to decide what jobs we want to retain, not primarily based on economic efficiency but simply based on societal good.
Decision making is getting much more complex. Old value sticks are becoming quickly obsolete.
This is an early but very interesting test case for the medium term future..
This is such a good post. (granted intake fueled by three martinis)It means, literally translated, 'we buy our future', - There President Obama - Go sell it.
I don't even bother with the comments here anymore most of the time, really. Too much chit chat, not enough info.
GM and Chrysler, and Ford, have fought for so long to make whatever POS they want in the U.S. and shove it down the consumer's throats that I have zero sympathy for them. I can't help but feel for their workers, though. I would say bail out the workers, help them form new companies, and let them take over the plants, re-fit them, demolish them, whatever.
As for the executives, screw 'em. They don't deserve a dime.
"For any other aborted business trip, it would be a reasonable request. But Bank of America has been obliged to apologise for asking 23 staff to refund fares for the US Airways flight which splash-landed in New York's Hudson River.
The bank's employees were travelling to the firm's corporate headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, when US Airways flight 1549 dramatically ditched off Manhattan last month."
from the Guardian.
and in the last post I meant to highlight the comment of "the current rate of sales being unsustainable" instead of the ray of sunshine (relative to the rest of the economy, prices are being cut and the USD has appreciated while gas has gone down... doesn't bode well for automaker profitability though). Last time I looked at the data, 10.5mn annual sales is a sustainable number for full employment and the present demographics. If you're hoping for 15.3mn annual sales within 5 years as the worst case scenario, you better darn well catch a Leprechaun quickly
Keep in mind that is the median and as the unsustainable/unaffordable credit binging on cars happened, it skewed the distribution to the short end.
If you adjust for suburban realtor mom and Circuit city manager dad buying each of her kids 2 cars from their HELOC; that is unaffordable should never have been sold -- the median age drops off to 12.1 years
Given the standard huge warranties offered now, it's fair to assume that quality is not going to decline any time soon to reduce the median age of autos.
Jobs:Auto sales is the way to go
At the end of the day there either has to be future or past income from participating in the labor force to pay for it. From that base you can adjust for rural/urban, or expected used lifetime of an auto
Looking at licensed drivers is wrong, looking at implicit sales required to maintain fleet size relative to population or maintain fleet age is wrong
You cannot assume sales return to recent levels unless you understand the chain of events that produced the cash to fund the sale
Heck if you want an off the wall comparison, look at what different types of farmers need to buy a new truck in terms of the goods they produce
If you're happy with the what once was, will be line of logic -- then you might as well get on board the $1mn average national house price and Dow 36,000 by 2020 bandwago
Another hand-out to the wealthy dealer...per the PDF...all you guys complain about the unions, what about these FAT CATS?
crispy&cole
If they go BK the dealers will be cut drastically. Currently many states have buy out laws to keep franchises from being taken with out just payment. All of the big three were buying out dealers until they ran out of money. I assume under BK the judge can cancel these dealers contracts. Everybody gets kicked.
donna writes:
I don't even bother with the comments here anymore most of the time, really. Too much chit chat, not enough info.
Honda laid off 50% of there shifts here two weeks ago, 2500 workers. Told them not to refuse other work. So whats your addition to the pool? My take away..
s0mebody, re: Ford, from the last thread Ford has 2, at most 4, months of cash to burn more than GM
Not even 1 quarter's worth. They managed that because the one smart thing Mulally did was to sell assets early, and take out loans collateralized by any unencumbered assets
GM has a few things to sell, and a few factories they could take loans against (would only happen from the government now)
It's not that they don't need money, it's just that they have the luxury of not being the first in line
If they both survive 3 more years, GM has a big step up on Ford
GM is rolling out a new model as part of its take back america plan: The Pony.
Didn't Ford kinda already bleed that idea to death with the Mustang?
Glad to see Doom was still front and center for the topics du jour. There were a whole lot of sad faces at the bar today as they watched their 401K's get abused...
The popular idea that complex supply chains & products adjust "automagically" will be sorely tested. Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:03 pm | #
And a risky bet it will be. If I read the tea leaves correctly then we are closing in on a downward spiral. Lots of unintended casualties that do not fit the standard Adam Smith issue manual.
Shipping costs by sea are dramatically DOWN, not up.
"On 21 May 2008 the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1998, reaching 11793 points. Less than half a year later, on 4 November 2008, the index had dropped by 93%, to 815 points,[7] the lowest since 1999. These low rates move dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews."
You have to be 100% delusional to think the car companies will avoid bankruptcy. People have to have jobs to pay for the car. They can't qualify for financing if they are unemployed.
It's impossible to reverse the downward spiral of the automakers unless unemployment drops and incomes rise consistently for at least a year.
Without a middle class recovery in sight, no automaker can rebound.
Comrade Kristina writes:
GM is rolling out a new model as part of its take back america plan: The Pony.
Their on the right path, but cars here are social movement. They need to get it right. They should be buying as much of Hollywood as they can get. Script writers.
If people are concerned with auto company BKs bringing down the supply chain, the feds should establish a auto chain lending facility that will provide emergency short-term or DIP financing to any business essential to a viable nameplate. I suspect the money amounts would be small compared to what gets tossed around routinely these days.
donna writes:
GM and Chrysler, and Ford, have fought for so long to make whatever POS they want in the U.S. and shove it down the consumer's throats
Get off your high horse. If you paid attention to auto sales you would know they produce exactly what the American consumer prefers.
Every automaker selling cars in America lusted after the market they dominated with SUVs. I take it you didn't notice the surge in SUV sales last November once gas had dropped did you?
If you want a car with better mileage, the best ways to do it are by taking weight off (smaller car, fewer features, smaller engine). It's a direct paradox, you can't suddenly put out a land tank with 53 cup holders and great mileage and low MSRP
Look at the scorn the Chevy Volt garners from most Americans? $35,000, for a car snark snark snark
If you want to drop in European cars to the American market, first be aware that the EU has less stringent pollution standards (to encourage diesel usage to spread out demand for oil constituents and boost energy security)
and they cost a whole lot more while giving the consumer less
[GM is estimating replacement demand is 12.5 million units per year, and that sales will be below replacement demand for the next 6 quarters or so]
Replacement for whom? If you watch credit trends as reported by COF & AXP today it's no wonder credit is drying up. COnsumers are in a bind and replacement will be recalibrated to a much lower number. Even rental car companies have capitulated holding cars for 50k mi +.
Repair shops and tire dealers will get a lot of new business.
Just a note: There is a huge difference between cars and houses. Housing stock is durable and can last 50 years, 100 years (if maintained a little) and even more.
Cars for the most part need to be replaced regularly, and the current turnover rate is close to 25 years. Even if there are too many cars right now - in an earlier post I estimated a decline in the car / driver ratio back to the early '80s - cars will not last on average 20 years (or even close).
The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year).
I don't know where the bottom is for sales, but I do think we are much closer to the bottom than the top.
I can go to Europe and get a Ford Ranger with a 4 or 6 cyl diesel engine, or any other manuf. product configured in diesel.
I am now driving an '02 Jetta TDI, bought new in Sept, '02.
Last month I bought my wife a Jetta Sportwagon, TDI.
I had to wait until the licenseing agreement between Mercedes Benz carefully worded-out "Blutec", so as not to diminish the MB brand allure here in USA.
If the "Big Three" offered a diesel model, I would have certainly looked, at the very least. (autos, not 3/4 ton PU's)
Walking along the scenic C&O Canal in the weekend it struck me that we need a completely new approach to infrastructure, one that will employ millions of humans and machines, throughout the value chain, from designers, architects, appraisers, economists, and engineers of many varieties and involve trillions of dollars in stimulus for not only the infrastructure but every related industry/conversion, and new industries that inevitably arise just as the invisible hand works its magic:
AN INTERSTATE CANAL NETWORK!
PERSONAL SUBMARINES, LIKE ON STINGRAY!
That's gotta be shovel-ready.
Just think: no more swathes of concrete blighting the land, freeways raised and arching over the nation's cities and rivers, car pollution, congestion (well, if it was wide and deep enough you could vertical stacks of lanes not just horizontal ones - imagine the volume).
And the cross-over to municipal lite-canal is just compelling.
Some of them I truly feel for, others I take secret glee in watching their retirement dissolve before their eyes. Mostly the ones that were trying to convince me that the market was dropping because of the stimulus bill dropping...I got a good chuckle out of that one...if they only knew they'd probably kill themselves...
âRumors are such that they can just plain put you out of business," Bear Stearns' former CEO Alan âAce" Greenberg tells FRONTLINE. Anonymous | 02.17.09 - 8:18 pm | #
Yeah, like his traders never ever spread rumors on shorts they had.
"The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year)."
Many of these cars are rarely if ever used, esp given all the layoffs.
why doesnt the guy with an ira just take a 60-day temp distribution or equivalent and get it into a plain vanilla brokerage account and buy brokered $90,000 cd's? or i would imagine by now they're $230,000 brokered cds?
Cars will last as long as you throw parts at them. The replacement figure is based on a vibrant economy where value is seen differently. The life forward may be much longer then we would normally expect. Cuba still drives pre Castor American cars.
Go to a lesser-off country and gauge their auto "replacement" frequency. They mostly maintain, repair and replace the moving parts. New car purchases are much less common. All we need is sea-change shift in our consumers' thinking about their "need" for "new" cars and our replacement frequency will increase significantly. Nothing like a Great Recession or incipient Depression to bring about such a sea-change.
WHen there are millions no longer working why will they need a new car? This bubble (like many of us have said for yearssssss) will put to bed many old business myths
--
"The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year)."
CR,
The quality of cars has gone up like crazy. Have you noticed that? I know of many common cars that were running OK at 300K. That wasn't the case in 1970s and 1980s.
"it has been reported that Smith himself "always considered his Theory of Moral Sentiments a much superior work to his Wealth of Nations"."
A debt money system requires identity, gold does not. It also requires a network of relationships, which means there are dependencies. It's probably a geometric function, which is why th global system is failing so thoroughly now.
There'd still be dependencies in a commodity-based system but I can't help wondering if it would be more robust.
.
"Hoosier Peasant writes:
You have to be 100% delusional to think the car companies will avoid bankruptcy. People have to have jobs to pay for the car. They can't qualify for financing if they are unemployed.
It's impossible to reverse the downward spiral of the automakers unless unemployment drops and incomes rise consistently for at least a year.
Without a middle class recovery in sight, no automaker can rebound."
Not to sound like a total protectionist commie nazi, but isn't the elephant in the room in all this auto talk global wage arbitrage?
I went through the FT today and saw that a korean bank tapped a national fund in its country which I hypothecate could have just been a currency basket... but who knows.
If i were running GM, we would be in Bolleywood shooting movies like Bullet updated.
KR | 02.17.09 - 8:17 pm | #
Have a car chase sequence like that in India...I take it you have never been to India. Sure they could clar the streets to shoot it, but it would not look like india to any Indian, unless maybe it were in a dream sequence
CR, with all due respect - my buddy owns a dealership. He says the showroom is picking up traffic but ssales continue to decline. Buyers come in with abysmal credit, severely upside down on present vehicles and leases they can't close out because of penalties... just horrifying as described by him.
We're a long way from a sustainable recovery. Consumer balance sheets are too impaired and getting worse.
Yes car sales may increase in the US, but let's not forget GM's market share has been cliff-diving. And it's fall will accelerate in Fall 2009 on when China starts importing comparable quality cars at a much lower price (maybe Walmart will sell them . . . .)
Well yeah Hoops, we knew that last night, but did anyone figure out why? Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:23 pm | #
My take is that it was because Moody's threatened to downgrade euro zone banks with significant exposure to the weakening economies in Eastern and Central Europe.
But he had atomic bomb footage!!! I thought we were going to be into cannibalism today, running through the streets like wild animals, smashing things, and howling wordlessly in shock rage and confusion... hell I even shot my entire family in preparation. How could Denniger mislead me so?
Maybe compared to the glory days of the 70s, but they've held on strongly to their 20% of America
What's more they are a big presence in China, one of the markets with good growth and Ford is strong in Latin America, another market with good growth prospects
Hoopajoops LTD writes:
I thought we were going to be into cannibalism today, running through the streets like wild animals, smashing things, and howling wordlessly in shock rage and confusion...
Yes, I have never been to india, HK and 50 others, but yes, not that bullet scene. Maybe they should do Vancouver now. something like 10 gangland shootings in as many days... its way out of hand. I ran a business there in the toughest block, i know what out of hand is. Its out of hand.
Bought a 1987 Acura Legend, still own it, it's doing fine with 270K mi. I'm 65 and will probably die before it does.
This business about life spans of cars (foreign built) is way too short. The only reason to buy a new one is the "I gotta have it" mentality", then you can justify anything.
My un-educated guess is those charts for buying new only come into play when times are fair to good. As most posters here know, we're in for a rough ride, so don't expect anyone will be buying big ticket items for a long, long time.
I sold Ford vehicles one summer a few years back. The average buyer traded in for a new car every 2.3 years. I do believe people can make it to 7 years per vehicle if they must.
Plug that data in and you might be surprised at the sales figures for the next few years.
PS Credit scores are tanking further diminishing the buying pool. +1 year.
CR,
Gotta agree with Jas about the durability of cars. I bought my first "new" car in 1985--a Honda Accord. Put 300K+ miles on it w/o any major problems. Sold it to a friend in 2001--he still drives it to work every day (approx 30 mi round trip). Pretty much the same luck with Mazdas and Subarus--75,000 miles is still like having a new car.
Have a car chase sequence like that in India...I take it you have never been to India. Sure they could clar the streets to shoot it, but it would not look like india to any Indian, unless maybe it were in a dream sequence Dirk | 02.17.09 - 8:25 pm | #
I've unintentionally been in a few auto rickshaw races in India. They were quite exciting and would have satisfied any movie addict...
I suspect anyone who believes that these companies would not be back in another 6 months or so asking for another $30, $40, $50 billions and so on and so on is a fool.
America is on the verge of GD II, and there is NO turnaround for these companies. They are DEAD !
Face it, and don't throw good money (you may bitterly need in the future) into that rathole.
As you see now, the state's (and municipalities) finances are starting to comme apart. The story is not just anymore about GM and Chrysler. It's much much bigger, and to brace for that you need every dime you can muster.
It's letting the small thing go in order to have a chance to save the larger game.
You should be nailed to the cross live with 1000s of video cameras broadcasting live worldwide. Then, there may be some hope for America because then the Crooks will run for their lives. I don't expect that; hence, no hope for Americas better future. Please dont give me the BS about the American People being very resourceful and all. They are irremediable dopes and evildoers are running wild.
If anyone is waiting for the government to stick it to Pimco and Gross you are going to be waiting for a long time. Pimco is probably the biggest buyer of treasuries (used as collateral for derivatives) in the world. They get pissed and they threaten to use cash as collateral, they get what they want from Timmy and they use UST's
"I sold Ford vehicles one summer a few years back. The average buyer traded in for a new car every 2.3 years. I do believe people can make it to 7 years per vehicle if they must."
would you say the average buyer earned an above average income?
Maybe they should do Vancouver now. something like 10 gangland shootings in as many days... its way out of hand. I ran a business there in the toughest block, i know what out of hand is. Its out of hand.
KR
.
Are we talking Canada, or Washington state? I'm guessing the Highlands.
I suspect anyone who believes that these companies would not be back in another 6 months or so asking for another $30, $40, $50 billions and so on and so on is a fool.
So why is Germany ready to put money into Opel? Supporting a loser like a fool?
bearly, of course ... and that is part of the reason sales are so dismal.
But that won't last forever. I'm not sure when sales will bottom, but I think it could happen sometime this year.
Obviously GM thinks it will happen in Q1 2009 according to that chart (although they aren't forecasting much of a rebound for the rest of the year).
U.S. Sales were below 10 million unit rate in January (based on reports from GM, Ford, and Toyota) - and buyers are having difficulty obtaining financing AND are very concerned - and I agree the financing will probably stay difficult for some time, and job losses will continue, so I can understand being pessimistic.
But as a reminder, some people in 2005 thought castles (house prices) would grow to the sky. Now some people think sales of all things will go to zero. As Paul Kasriel noted last week:
"The economic data are likely to be abysmal through the first half of this year. The popular media will reinforce the gloom of the data. The same pundits who did not see this downturn coming will not see the recovery coming either."
I'd add that some people will see a depression coming forever ... maybe they will be right this time ... but they will miss the eventual bottom. Yes, someday the economy will bottom ...
CR is not counting the people who will downsize from 2 cars to 1 car per family (or 3 to 2). Compare per capita car use in USA to Europe - plenty of room for a permanent reduction in per capita car usage - especially on the coasts, where distances are shorter.
Arrr, these be the headlines from Yves site, and I don't see any mention of Karl D. No mention of Karl's rumor, tall tale of financial finality that it was.
* Black Hole Alert: GM, Chrysler Seeking More Federal Support - Feb 17, 2009
* Links 2/17/09 - Feb 17, 2009
* William Black: "There Are No Real Stress Tests Going On" - Feb 17, 2009
* So Much For Stimulus: Chinese Loans Diverted to Stocks, Feeding Rally - Feb 17, 2009
* Dizard: Financial Industry Reform is in Limbo - Feb 17, 2009
I was talking to the guys over at the local Goodyear Tire and Auto about people keeping their cars longer and how it would good for their business.
They told me that they are seeing people bring their cars in when they absolutely need it, like the brakes are not working cause the brake pads are totally gone. They think that people are so low on money that they will drive their cars to point where only safety matters.
I would say the average buyer bought way above their income and credit score. The poster above that talked about the buddy with the dealership with deal/credit impaired buyers is spot on.
Doesn't matter if you want to buy if you are upside down in you 2004 Ford Expedition that has a crap trade in value. You will be driving that Expedition long past the point you want to be.
The revenge of the SUV is at a dealership near you.
Arrr, these be the headlines from Yves site, and I don't see any mention of Karl D. No mention of Karl's rumor, tall tale of financial finality that it was.
It's under the links:
RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process Market Ticker (hat tip reader dzzle) He is right, the currency moves this evening are major. It does not look good.
Still if you didn't read my rant, you might want to look at my mention of how the recent credit binge skewed the fleet age distribution so as to lower the median age beyond that of a fleet represented by real demand.
Secondary justsification of that point is the growth in the usable lifetime of a car, versus the growth in median age. Credit accounts for the discrepancy
It's one of the easiest things to model if you take historical sales, and impute an average lifetime from the time of sale.
Just because there has been a long deviation from real demand, doesn't mean it will restore itself and last forever.
Once again, the current sales are as expected by me. According to your model, they are pure insanity and unexpected.
It's not about there being a single equilibrium sales amount or a price. It's about what is the feasible range, and the sustainable centerline.
If you think I'm crazy, the best way to do it is by justifying 'productivity' increases in the economy from a bottom up basis since 1980.
People have mentioned the reasons cars may go a long time without replacement - older cars are rarely used spares, repair is almost always an option, and even the lousiest cars today are pretty good by historical standards. I will add the anecdotal observation that I know almost nobody who will need a new car in the next 2 years.
My take is that the average car could easily be kept on the road for another 2 years, resulting in a median car age increase of about 1 year. That would produce a 1 year shortfall in car replacement. So if the replacement rate is 12.5M/per year we could stay at 10M for FIVE years, without any significant quality of life impairment for drivers. I think 10M for five years is the minimum for a "stress test" of car company survival and a restructuring plan that couldn't handle that should be rejected.
The revenge of the SUV is at a dealership near you.
anon | 02.17.09 - 8:44 pm | #
I posted this last week but it is worth of a repost considering the topic. Several dealers in the area are running ads for Jeep Grand Cherokees for $16,999. That's 48% off of MSRP for a 2009 and it can be had with 0% Financing for 5 years.
"I'd add that some people will see a depression coming forever..." Calculated Risk
And some of us think that we just went up the biggest hill of the rollercoaster, and the biggest plunge just might be on the other side as the worst-case scenario, and the best thing that might happen is a gentle zig-zaggy ride to the bottom. At least until humanity solves a future problem re: shortages in a few resources, especially oil.
What I envision is Chrysler going bust. GM drops Pontiac, Saab, Saturn, and possibly Buick. They pick up Jeep from the remnants of Chrysler. GM survives. So does Ford. And don't forget Hyundai! Its pronounced like Sunday...
So, after taking the country from a $5.6 trillion surplus to a $1.2 trillion deficit, the GOP all of a sudden says no more stimulus ( unless it lines their crooked pockets ).
Also no more bailout money for GM or Chrysler, the crooked banks, tax cuts for the rich, and so on....
Obama just nationalize and get as much of a clean slate as possible or else your 4 yrs will be hell !
norma writes:
A north Idaho guy who received an extreme makeover house is in foreclosure, he apparently took out a $400,000 loan against it.
norma | 02.17.09 - 8:49 pm |
IO have a friend that bought late... he is waiting for his interst deductions from his income tax to come back in the form of refund, then he drops the house...
wonder for those that are on the fence , that have made payments but underwater, how many will do this for cash in pocket..he got the idea from daddy-o...
seems there are millions that could do this if they realize/think that they will be years before they realize break even on purchase price but make theior payments now...
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...So why is Germany ready to put money into Opel? Supporting a loser like a fool?...
As far as I know (it was discussed in german news) Opel by itselfs is profitable !
That's why, and only that.
If it should turn out that this is not true, they are gone too. You can read today in German newspapers : "No VEB Opel!". (VEB means a Volkseigener Betrieb, which was the economic structure of the former East-Germany. We payed enough to liquidate/unwind the bankrupt East German economy after the reunification, so no appetite for that anymore.
"CRBot, you need to change your name and function to CRSummaryBot!"
Oh, you mean by appending the first letter of every comment together to form a single 300 character comment? I'm just a bot, I don't come programmed with "value call" subroutines.
I'm certain that the UAW drone currently putting together your Ford, GM or Chrysler product really gives a crap about doing quality work.
They know they are gonna get canned in days to months, and if they survive the UAW will have to concede much of their benefits. And they are making cars that everybody knows are just going to sit around on lots, or be eventually dumped, scrapped or sold for parts. And that high end Corvettes will really get screwed up, since they are going to be purchased by rich iceholes who aren't affected by this depression.
My Ford is 8 years old. I'm retired, put 3000 miles on it a year and have it totally checked out every 6 months. It is LONG since paid for and I have absolutely no intention of buying a new car anytime soon. And the truth is I don't know anyone who is. All my neighbors have had their same car for years. My BIL bought a 2 year old truck to replace his old POS a few months ago (owns a farm and needed it), wouldn't even consider a new one.
I think everone feels the same these days even if they could afford to buy new.
"RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process Market Ticker (hat tip reader dzzle) He is right, the currency moves this evening are major. It does not look good."
Fords makes a European version of the upcoming 2010 Fiesta that has a diesel engine rated 63mpg. The problem is the engine is made in England and if they imported it to the U.S. it drive the price of the Fiesta too high and Ford doesn't have enough money to build a diesel engine plant here in the U.S. (that's what I read a few months ago).
Thaksin,
Chrysler does not take Cerberus down. Each of their ventures is separated, and the only people directly exposed are the ones who specifically contributed to get a piece of the action.
Would trigger CDS if went into bankruptcy. Can't imagine it being too eventful given how well the much larger ones were handled (and non-ISDA settlement hidden)
Chrysler has been even more poorly run since the takeover, so it shouldn't be any surprise.
Biggest question would be what happens to former Chrysler assets, joint venture productions, and all the employee obligations
Best solution IMO would be a French national champion cobbling together. Government induced merger of Ford and GM, along with free passage from any dealer brand obligations (it's not so simple as doing away with Saturn, dealers have contracts enforceable that can only be broken by bankruptcy as it stands... and no one is buying that problem off GM)
Wow, Asia tanking in early trading: Counterpointer | 02.17.09 - 8:43 pm | # ----- The futures were down so I'm not surprised that the markets are down.
There is good reason for both countries to invest properly to save and support our car companies. You poorly backed into you comment. Opel is GM"s Vauxall as well. I hope they finish their HCCI gas diesel engine. I am very intrigued to see it. I have seen the DiesOtto from MBZ.
Millennium, based in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, offers five-year CDs with interest rates of 6.5 percent to 7.75 percent on deposits of $100,000 or more.
Millennium boasts on its website that it is "not affected by the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage practices of large domestic banks."
Millennium also says on its website it is wholly-owned by United Trust of Switzerland S.A., although Business Week said regulators in Switzerland have not heard of United Trust.
Millennium did not return calls requesting comment and the U.S. SEC declined to comment.
On its site, Millennium explains it can offer high rates of return because "deposits in most countries are protected by a form of deposit insurance. Deposits in international private banks are not." Caribbean's Millennium Bank is like Stanford-report
| Reuters
--
Born-and-bred American dopes don't know that Adam Smith firmly believed that you need a moral basis, or mooring, for a successful economic system.
Hayek also believed in ethics, politics and economics as basis of a prosperous society. Hayek's big failing was that he took ethics for granted. Serious blind spot in his free-market theology. Ethics are anything but given and that is why born-and-bred American dopes must suffer for allowing evildoers to take control of the econo-political system by manipulating morality and replacing it with amorality. One of the greatest Greek thinkers, before Socrates, was Protagoras, labeled a sophist. Labeling Protagoras as sophist and Plato as philosopher is part of the brainwashing, or prejudice. Protagoras is famous for: Man is measure of all things. Propagandists like Greenspan, Limbaugh, Obama, are in the false measurement business!
Saw that....looked cool, sounded cool until I realized what it was......a Fiat in disguise.
Had One....put a flat 6 Porsche engine in a Brava. Went like stink......and then Fiat left America and something as simple as door hinges or window seals became extremely expensive and hard to find.
Now normally you wouldn't need something like a door hinge....but if you've never owned a Fiat......
Sorry, but I really have disagree with CR on this. The decline in auto sales is not only "sustainable", but can go MUCH lower.
What CR is neglecting to consider is that the inherent demand for cars is actually very elastic. You can't just take a mathematical formula that calculates the number of cars needed for the population, or the existing number of vehicles, and assume that this existing fleet must be kept intaxt.
In good times people will consume more cars than they really have to. Families will buy cars for each of their teen-agers, as well as deciding to keep a car for each parent. By contrast, when times get tough many people discover that there is no reason teens can't take public transit, or that they can't better coordinate activities to share a single car.
I personally know of families who have made decisions in the last year to downsize the number of vehicles in their families. One of my friends has started taking the bus to work so he could get rid of one of their automobiles. Myself, I have been bicycling to work for 8 years (I sold my car 7 years ago).
There is NO reason we can't see the US car fleet shrink substantially on a PERMANENT basis.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...You mean more capable than the bozos that created exotic financial instruments that would ultimately destroy the entire World's economy? Uhm yeah...
I think the government bureaucrats (in the form of regulators), semi government bureaucrats (in the form of Fannie/Fredy, NRSROs and not least the FED) as well as Congress itselfs (overseeing the whole mess and looking to it that that evil is legal (!) and nobody sees anything until you could not hide it anymore) were heavily involved.
Imagine how they would/could mess up GM and Chrysler.
Greenspan on CNBC. I've come to the conclusion he's a sociopath.
Talking about the collapse as though he was an outsider looking in, had no involvement or was was in any way responsible. Also, talking about the credit failures and asset deflation as though they are random events not rational market correction for lack of oversight or discipline, blaming instead on fear and emotion.
The entire thing is surreal.
He's lucky no one with a spine is on the Q&A panel.
Now normally you wouldn't need something like a door hinge....but if you've never owned a Fiat......
Ciao
MS
.
Yeah, I remember. But still. And even my Honda is not what Hondas used to be-- fit and finish not so good, and a couple of things hanging loose after less than a year. I'd rather be in a POS that goes like the proverbial bat outta hell than a POS that bores me to death, which is what Honda has decided to be.
Screw Cerberus. Top Gear had this little bug on last night. 160hp pocket rocket. Serious speed and handling, and not cop bait: scone | 02.17.09 - 8:53 pm | #
In Europe definitive cop bait. Everybody there still knows what a Fiat Abarth is about: speed! Fiat Abarth were the very first pocket rockets.
In Europe definitive cop bait. Everybody there still knows what a Fiat Abarth is about: speed! Fiat Abarth were the very first pocket rockets.
RE
.
I thought you guys pulled that "Italian Job" escape shit on the local talent.
--
"Sorry, but I really have disagree with CR on this. The decline in auto sales is not only "sustainable", but can go MUCH lower."
Sniglet,
Your error is taking CR seriously. He is clueless about the demand. He doesn't know what has hit the US e-CON-omy. He still believes in "no severe recession" scenario to the best of my knowledge. We are at the verge of a depression. The guy is a dismal scientist, for God's sake.
My wife has laid down the ultimatium as i critisized her day old creation of a facebook page, and desire to watch nothing but american idol...she said "well you talk with CR folks whats the difference?" is my marriage done for? she is a Kindergarten teacher and blond???????
eponymous writes:
...I'm certain that the UAW drone currently putting together your Ford, GM or Chrysler product really gives a crap about doing quality work...
Exactly !
Buying stuff from them for "normal prices" doesn't make any sense. For a e.g. 40% rebate perhaps if you want to endure the hassle of frequent trips to the repair shop.
JBR, those old Plymouths were something else. Chrysler DID make good cars at one time.
When my dad retired he had 2 cars an older Plymouth and a newer Buick. He sold the Buick, kept the Plymouth, it was in great shape when he died 10 years later.
TCA-
Check with Vanguard on opening a brokerage account and shuffling your short term money in one of their CD/ checking accounts. It's painless if you already have an account with them.
If you have over a million in investable assets, they'll do a lot of hand holding to put you into the right short term instruments given your constraints.
If that doesn't help, I'd be willing to trade my Admiral shares in MM Bills for a very reasonable premium:)
crispy-
The "wealthy dealer network" plugged all their money in land development deals and local ethanol and bio-diesel startups...ooops
Hoop-
I thought you weren't gonna put any money in banks? What happened?
How come a bk would cost jobs? Wouldn't the same number of cars be sold? Somebody else would make them and would hire more people. Am I dumb?
dumb ed
They would dump overlap labor from old union agreements and probably more robotics. A friend is a rail road retiree. He told me to remove a radiator out of a locomotive it took three different union employees. Plumber to disconnect the water lines, another electrician to remove electrical connections and a machinist to remove the bolts and radiator. Now to install reverse the procedure. Lots of time wasted lining up the three twice to do what one man could.
I know almost nobody who will need a new car in the next 2 years.
Use the gas tax to put a price floor on gasoline, and add rebates to make the tax progressive (!). No demand for gas-sipping cars when gasoline's at $2.
Redistributive as hell, but no different from the mortgage interest deduction or $250K deposit insurance.
she said one of these contestants will be employed,,,,without a stimulus...oooooo f'k .... and i am psycho for questioning her desire to look up friends withy facebook...arrrgh//
hoop i will smother her at 135 am but i need an alabi
Sports Guy Lafleur..I have a 1972 Sears snowblower (no lights, but a tecumseh engine), that lost the high speed screw from the carbureator about a month ago. The Sears parts web site just laughed at me. I took the carb off, and went to some parts store looking for pity. I also brought the Sears manual with all the parts numbers. One guy used the Sears part number on the Tecumseh engine, and found and ordered the parts for $14.65. The system works.
Calculated Risk writes:
Just a note: There is a huge difference between cars and houses. Housing stock is durable and can last 50 years, 100 years (if maintained a little) and even more.
Cars for the most part need to be replaced regularly, and the current turnover rate is close to 25 years. Even if there are too many cars right now - in an earlier post I estimated a decline in the car / driver ratio back to the early '80s - cars will not last on average 20 years (or even close).
Best to all.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:17 pm |"
Cars don't need to be replaced as often because unemployed car owners don't drive as much as they use to.
CR is basing this on the rubber band of pent-up demand and betting it will bounce back, which is incredibly naive on his part, very unusual BAD analysis for him.
CR, as your blog says, ports all over the world are overflowing with new cars in inventory, in the pipeline. There's another whole pipeline of used cars coming off leases. There's a glut of cars to move through the pipeline, maybe as much as 2-3 years worth. So, will there be rising sales? Yes. But will they help GM and other manufacturers rev up production in the next year or two? No.
What's weird about it is that CR, better than anyone, saw the same inventory build-up problem and its aftermath coming in housing.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.": Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot. Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing." query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. " double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe." ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
nades writes: CRBot: Killing threads as dead as Jas and Jeff... ("But with much less dopey residue, nades.")
What part of $1.6 trillion INCREASE do you not understand?
I was shrieking my head off about this in the early nineties while apparently you zoned out on pot or television.
And, in point of fact since you WERE NOT PAYING ATTENTION DURING THE SHILL GAME,
Clinton is also largely responsible for refinancing out of long-term bonds and into short-term treasuries to create the ILLUSION of a smaller deficit, as well as forward-shifting several hundred billion dollars in Jan, 2000 into the next year's budget.
Clinton turned your gov't into an gigantic Option ARM.
And now we are here, as I KNEW we would be, with me having to listen to your incredible ignorance about a problem that could have been prevented.
.
What, no bail-out for Cerberus?
I can't really be second.
Given a few common hardware store items such as a tarp and some pvc pipe poles, most GM/Chrysler products can house a family of 3. These companies are now viable again and I'm a genius.
second
Pretty much lays out where the money is going.
The Stimulus Plan: How to Spend $787 Billion - The New York Times
According to my calculations ...First
OOOOOO...turn around in the third half is IN!
Nostrovia,
Well, would you look at that... GM sales are going to bottom in Q109. That's convenient.
Stupid question: what if they don't?
My models are based on the number of bloggers always going up.
Isn't Obama just going to transfer the legacy health care and pension obligations to the Federal government and go from there?
Expecting O to demand any significant concessions from the UAW is a pipe dream, I am afraid.
It's not unsustainable auto sales if the US gubbmint buys us all a new car to 'stimulate' us.
I posted this at the end of the last thread, but I'm hoping someone will see it here...
Anybody know of a good Treasury money market account that is open to new investors? I am in Vanguard's VMPXX fund, but it is closed to new investors. So is Fidelity's similar fund, FDLXX. I would like to advise my friends and family to flee to relative safety, but it appears that most of these avenues have been cut off. Any help is appreciated!
Make my new gubbmint car a skittle poopin pony pl0x
What concessions have they got from AIG?
TCA, I just closed my treasury money market account with vanguard. I'm going to just open up new accounts at local banks as I cross over the 250k limit. Is there some reason you'd rather do T-MM than banks?
I'm still trying to figure why they can't restructure on their own and then go raise money in the private markets. If all they need is help from the govt for DIP financing and guarantees for their cars so GM can still operate, then I can understand.
cr writes: However, I think the Chrysler plan is a joke and my guess is a bankruptcy is imminent.
## Politically, Chrysler is at risk because they went private and left the country. So, joke of a plan and that combined, BK for Chrysler. Nobody liked them, even when we were friends.
Sorry, CR, I think the $30B price tag will be a deal killer. There are a lot of Democrats in the Senate that I would bet won't go along with that.
\tTCA, I just closed my treasury money market account with vanguard. I'm going to just open up new accounts at local banks as I cross over the 250k limit. Is there some reason you'd rather do T-MM than banks?
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:27 pm | #
It's my IRA. I don't want to take a 40% tax hit to pull it out.
Expecting O to demand any significant concessions from the UAW is a pipe dream, I am afraid.
Nemo | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:25 pm | #
Right on, Nemo.
There may be some window dressing concessions - as with the bank exec compensation packages - but we'll be pouring money into these companies for years to come.
Too big to fail.
I guess the real problem is the big auto didn't learn from the big finance: take the money and use it to lobby congress.
Obama will kick the can down the road and let Palin fix things.
Their estimates are from outer space. They are doomed, time to BK them!
Red Herring.....They assume that Q1 '09 is the bottom with sales slowly building throughout the next two years.
Better then Chrysler's 'give us money' plan however GM is essentially saying this IS the bottom (Q1 '09). They do not factor in the continuing market share decline (against Toyota) and this little problem of vast amounts of credit being vaporized that allowed them to achieve the Q1 '08 figure.
Replacement demand? Ha...won't even go there.
Nice try but no soup for you.
Ciao
MS
Any concessions from the wealthy dealer network?
CR; you wrote:
"I've noted before that the current level of auto sales is unsustainable, and that sales had to increase. "
What is the mechanism by which sales will increase? Are you counting on the tax breaks? I re-read your previous post, and I don't understand why fleet turnover should not grind to a halt for at least a year or two.
Unless an automaker goes BK and their cars become unserviceable. Noe that might motivate some new purchases from the surviving automakers.
This has been gnawing at my brain lately.
Shipping costs by sea are up.
Commodities are expected to rise because of the China and US stimulus.
yet
BDI is down, as is commoditiy prices.
Rail is down.
so
Any plans of the stimulus making magic - something that everyone wants to believe in - the data says no?
so
The car industry is going to continue to get hammered
hence
GM is way to optimistic
"Their estimates are from outer space."
Are you picking up the feed too?
Nostrovia,
as of this morning Eastern Time, am told bondholders were the problem, not UAW. bondholders eyes on what happened at GMAC. comment from Congress source was that the bondholders are "piggish."
Watching Kudlow, Bob Dahl from Blackrock says buy and dollar cost average....
What an idiot!
Any concessions from the wealthy dealer network?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:30 pm | #
'Capitulation' may be the 'c' word you were looking for there
So far the bondholders are saying no
CR,
Are you actually suggesting we should loan GM a total of 30 Billion dollars?
Sure we may need to replace vehicles out there...my 1997 Honda CRV included.
But there is no way in hell I would by a GM and no way am I going to by another petro eating only machine.
I will hang onto the Honda CRV and replace and pay in cash a very good hybrid or an all electric car.
Which brings up another point. Who is going to loan to buy all the required sales of GM cars just so these jokers can actually pay us back? GMAC? Seriously?
Well sure, of course we have to give PIMCO its due
\tWatching Kudlow, Bob Dahl from Blackrock says buy and dollar cost average....
What an idiot!
8 Ball | 02.17.09 - 7:31 pm | #
If he told everyone to sell and sit in cash for the next five years how would he steal your money?
Bob doll says buy everytime he is on cnbc or bloomberg...buy buy...
"Their estimates are from outer space."
Are you picking up the feed too?
..............
Nope, got the super duper tin foil hat on. My cat told me!
If he told everyone to sell and sit in cash for the next five years how would he steal your money?
TCA | 02.17.09 - 7:33 pm | #
Amen brother!
"Isn't Obama just going to transfer the legacy health care and pension obligations to the Federal government and go from there?
"
Yet another path by which guaranteed national health care will arrive.
Don't even bother to doubt. It's a lock, one way or another.
GM is nothing more then the homebuilder's:
"Many potential buyers are not able to buy due to credit conditions, so once credit market returns to normal (i.e. fiction levels return), the release of pent up demand will actually increase sales".
BK 'em and start over.
Ciao
MS
Nope, got the super duper tin foil hat on. My cat told me!
8 Ball | 02.17.09 - 7:33 pm | #
Just make sure it's connected to ground...
By next year will Toyota still be running at 50% in the US? Nissan?
Chrysler gone? GM at 50%?
All those workers will be working.
All those suppliers won't be supplying
Who the hell is going to be buying cars? Real estate? CRE? Legal? Retail? ALl those fields will be fallow.
Summary: meep!
While I never have been curious about their business models, I don't get it. They want to close the Saturn, while it might have been the most promising line.
I mean, eventually the price for oil will climb up and who the hell would want to buy .. "like a rock?"
Yet another path by which guaranteed national health care will arrive.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:34 pm | #
I agree.
Does America want an iconic auto industry now? Y or N. Its simple.
'Yes' at any cost is a dumb answer. 'No' is a dumb answer.
Someone please explain, why Saturn?
--
No comments on "Printing Money" for few hours? I hope that these people are still around.
The Zimbabwe School of Economics by Marc Faber:
YouTube - Marc Faber "U S will default on debt or enter hyperinflation" 02-05-09
In this video Marc Faber, Dr Doomed, comes across as a moron with zero understanding of the Anglo-American econo-political system. Of course, he knows his customers, or audiencePrinting Money inflation dopes (PMIDs) and America is full of such dopes. Printing Money in the US is a myth. What is going on is nothing more than rearrangement of debt, or swap of one form of debt with another. But, that is too sophisticated for someone with an economic IQ of a moron.
This moron has been trashing the US Treasury bonds for several years now and what we have now in the US if deflation and USTs have soared rather than being worthless. He doesnt understand that soon the real Fed Funds Rate (RFFR) would be positive as YoY inflation rate goes below zero and, worse yet, the nominal GDP goes negative, YoY, at the end of 2009Q2 (it already was during 2008Q4, on a quarterly basis). Propagandists have a field day in a world full of dopes and there are no more disgusting American dopes than PMIDs. I have to deal with them almost on a daily basis.
The moron made a promise to Intel employees few weeks ago, during a visit to an Intel facility, that INTC will out-perform the US Treasuries in the next 5 years and later he changed it to 5-10 years and also included many other US tech Scams. This moron does not understand Deflationary Depression.
Jas
Craigslist of the day, this one specially pulled for mp and conjure:
Mobile Disaster Laundry Business - $95000 (Medford, OR)
Mobile Laundry Unit Designed for Response to Hurricanes, Forest Fires, Floods, etc. that meets all government contract specifications and more. 24' freightliner curtain van that includes:
- three 55lb Unimac Programmable Extractor Washers
- three 75 lb Unimac Reversing Dryers fabricated with Heat Exchangers
-25 kw whisper watt generator
-three Rinnai instant hot water heaters
Unit requires NO ELECTRICITY
20' Interstate enclosed equipment trailer with four 2000 gal. gray and potable water bladders and all needed equipment.
There is one sure way to save GM & Chrysler:
They both need to become Bank Holding Companies ASAP.
I think one bankruptcy affects the entire supply chain anyway. Or so says Ford, Toyota, etc.
Better to just let them both go otherwise we will need to prop them both up.
Hey this all sounds vaguely familiar.... The same extortion / blackmail technique the finance and banking industry is using.
Just nationalise the economy and be done with it.
10-year yield dips a few bps and Jas comes out of the woodwork.
Too predictable.
But there is no way in hell I would by a GM and no way am I going to by another petro eating only machine.
I think that's going to be a significant problem for GM, even if auto sales does return, considering that so much of the profit was from SUVs.
TCA writes:
Anybody know of a good Treasury money market account that is open to new investors?
You might consider one of the Agency money market funds like VMFXX. It is 99% agency so in theory is as safe as Treasuries.
CR,
Can you explain to me why US auto sales have to approach replacement rate?? It seems to me that you're ignoring the possibility of market share declines to foreign competition. Or the possibility that the retrenched US consumer will postpone replacement.
I think your 2009 outlook is far too optimistic.
The questions:
If current buyers of new cars can almost always get another year or two out of their vehicles in a pinch, and current buyers of used cars (which DO reach end-of-life) are in no position to buy new, why is current level of sales 'unsustainable'?
If Chrysler goes BK, can GM's supply chain survive? A lot of them are borderline right now WITH Chrysler's business.
How the heck is GM going to sell Saturn, Saab and (to a lesser extent) Hummer, now that they've integrated the parts with their other brands. Who'd buy a brand with Delco under the hood and dependant on Delco's continuing solvency?
GM should just do away with their fancy presentation and do like every other bank robber and slip us a note on a piece of paper...Give Me All Your Money or Else
Maybe a new name for GM: Government Motors? A stimulus in every seat.
How can auto sales bottom? Americans have way too many cars...
Ok, it frets me just a tad as a Canadian to say this, but 'America' is a brand name. 'WE' cannot afford to lose the jobs. Ergo, we must buy the brand. Honda will be fine..Toyota too.
"BRITISH JOBS FOR BRITISH WORKERS"
RPT-FEATURE-Recession fans economic nationalism in
| Reuters
Won't be long and we'll get to see some real ass beating on a global scale.
I checked KD's site. We are ok for awhile. I already miss the excitement.
"Maybe a new name for GM: Government Motors?"
American Leyland....
Nostrovia,
Santander's Banif Fund Suspends Payments
link: Santander's Banif Fund Suspends Payments
Awesome!...we're all now in an adolescent economy.
Santander owns Sovereign, what was once the 3rd largest thrift in the US.
this is an STD you do not want on yer c*ck.
CR,
I will make note that it is only your opinion that auto sales will be a bright ray of sunshine in 2009 vs 2008.
With all due respect you did not predict this decline in sales, and neither did JD Power, Global Insight, or GM.
A lot of what could be said on the matter was put into the comments the last time you made a post on the topic.
In short by looking at sales per job, I correctly identified in advance (and trumpeted my horn along the way) not only the credit enabled sales capacity but also the sustainable rate of sales (where any credit only shifts demand, instead of creating all new demand)
"Exiting dealers generally
expect GMs assistance with respect to their facilities and other dealership investments,
such as new vehicles, parts, tools, and third-party long term contracts."
Another hand-out to the wealthy dealer...per the PDF...all you guys complain about the unions, what about these FAT CATS?
Oh my poor dear fools,
GM and others will get the taxpayer money, get a grip on what BO did today. Money for nothing and your chicks for free.
I Keep rooting for our government to continue to pile as much debt on the American tax payer as is humanly possible. This will insure that the final phase of the bust will be absolutely spectacular. The fireworks show for my entertainment purposes will be orgasmic.
It's not as if the American tax payer has any intention of ever realistically paying the foreign investors buying our debt, back.
Bail everybody out for my viewing pleasure as unemployment soars and depression sets in.
From previous thread,
"Well, I'm a noobie in these parts, your best bet is ignore any post by Jas Jain, Michael, Elvis, myself, black halo, nova, bobn, sebastian... er, wait... maybe you should go back to yahoo! finanace...
FaradayShieldedHeadgearBrigade | 02.17.09 - 6:56 pm |"
FSHB,
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
Actually,
"If" they can remove Chrysler from the mix and keep the supply chain relatively intact there might be a hope that GM could make it as a going concern. Paying back the debt is another story of course. I suppose they could just give taxpayers a GM instead of their refund checks when it adds up to that level...
OT but from Eurowatch blog - best explanation of Japanese problems in 1 para...
So, what is going on here? Well, I will tell you what is going on. Without the benefit of growth in foreign markets Japanese companies simply have no future revenues to sell and thus no collateral against which to sell debt. And why is this you might ask; well because, absent a solid growth in exports, Japanese companies have to rely on the domestic market for growth (at least to some extent) and this is quite literally impossible with Japan's demographic profile.
If you watch that TED talk
that EHP posted in the prior thread and look at the fast developing robotic capabilities then making these decision becomes a lot more complex. We as a society will have to decide what jobs we want to retain, not primarily based on economic efficiency but simply based on societal good.
Decision making is getting much more complex. Old value sticks are becoming quickly obsolete.
This is an early but very interesting test case for the medium term future..
Are you trying to obstruct our think tank of sector destruction with some sort of distractive Delphi tenique?
Michael | 02.17.09 - 7:44 pm | #
Nah, I'm just commenting about new posters complaining about CR's decline and kitchens and heat.
--
Automobile industry is by far the most globalized industry and we know how best born-and-bred American dopes led by Crooks can compete. Sorry, no excuses. Everything in the US economy should be looked at, or analyzed, with the proper backdrop: An Evil Government, Rogue Economists and a Thoroughly Doped Population.
Then everything falls into place. I get daily confirmations of the above backdrop. Don't you? The process that created the backdrop is irreversible because dopes feed on each other and the Crooks watch with reassurance.
Jas
Optimism abounds in the motor industry, even in the far reaches of the South Pacific. From the NZ Herald web site;
"Car prices set to zoom"
Motor Industry Association chief executive Perry Kerr says the industry is looking at a potential 40 per cent price increase driven by the falling dollar.
Hmm! Suppliers seeking a 40% price increase on a consumer discretionary item in the current environment.
Can we have a Bronx cheer for this gentleman?
Chrysler goes under the bus. Sophie's choice.
I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?
Obviously a quiet, reasonable 'let them die' is not getting through. Very well.
OFF WITH THEIR HEADS.
.
If GM and Chrysler go under, Ford is sitting pretty. We would still have an American manufacturer. GM and Chrysler need to go.
Comrade Kristina --
I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?
Most of them were about you, actually.
what MS said.
GM can dream about this being the bottom; people don't even want their cars. Its 2010, you finally get a job after being unemployed 14 months, it pays you 65% of what your last job paid, you're savings are nill because you had to cash out on your IRA early to make the inflated mortgage payments (and govt still swatted you with penalties). There are no used cars to buy because they all died according to CR. Some how you can get a $15K loan for a new car (the govt is still lending at 0% because no matter that it borrowed $4T to bailout the banksters and stimulus 2 and 3 the bond market never revolted - the miracles never ceased!). Your choices are a GM or a Toyota. You want this car to last you the rest of your entire life since you may need to live in it when you retire. What do you pick?
People buy GM when they have extra money and feel bad for America - its a sympathy purchase. When people want value they buy Asian. GM is done.
dryfly and others, tell me this analogy is wrong:
I had a 5 yr. old Ariens' snowblower with a Tecumseh engine completely die. Rod throwing clunk engine ruined disaster. Because Tecumseh engines are in freeze mode right now, I have been told by the three shops I visited to "buy a Briggs engine," or anything but Tecumseh.
So when the supply chain is disrupted (maybe already there), even owning one of these products puts you at risk. And going forward, when the shortages start, even a simple system failure could mean EOL (end of life) for your car.
Who'd buy a GM/Chrysler or possibly F at this risk level?
So, if only Chrysler goes bankrupt, will that then bankrupt the auto suppliers? If so, will the US have to supply debtor-in-possession financing to Chrysler to avoid bankrupting the suppliers?
If no DIP financing is given to Chrysler, and the suppliers go under, then GM and Ford go under, unless the US provdies the suppliers a loan or DIP financing?
If GM goes bankrupt, and the US supplies DIP financing, then GM gets rid of its penison obligations. If this happens, then the does the Pension Guaranty Fund go under? Then does the US have to bail out the PGF?
If the auto makers go bankrupt but the US supplies DIP financing to 1, 2 or all 3 of them, then no one will want to buy their cars due to the ucertainty, right? If so, will the US have to guaranty their warranties and attednant moral hazard? If the US doesn't supply DIP financing , then all three auto makers will eventually go Chapter 7 cause all their business wil go to Toyota and other foreign auto makers?
Am I getting close on this? My head hurts.
If we all just hold hands, sing kumbaya and go buy an SUV this will all be fine...
Rotten Apples
Oh, wait, you mean it didn't work in 2001 to save the NASDAQ? Well, it will work this time, trust us!
Comrade Kristina writes:
I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?
.
Here in my car
I feel safest of all
I can lock all my doors
It's the only way to live
In cars
Here in my car
I can only receive
I can listen to you
It keeps me stable for days
In cars
Here in my car
Where the image breaks down
Will you visit me please?
If I open my door
In cars
Here in my car
I know I've started to think
About leaving tonight
Although nothing seems right
In cars
.
GM might be viable with just Chevrolet and Cadillac (might even let Cadillac go). Chevrolet could do a DX, LX and EX model. Apparently Pontiac and Saturn get the Axe; The 'GM' brand is nothing more than a re-badged Chevrolet, so it needs to go. Bankruptcy is best for them, because it will allow them to shed their debt. They have offered buyouts to every hourly employee, and they will start hiring after they are reorganized. GM's arguments against bankruptcy are weak.
I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Everything is great, market's in the shitter, DOWN GOES FRAZIER...
then 3:30 rolled around, everyone crapped their pants, some people re-loaded up there
then the market closed and the bears were pissed that we didn't break the lows on INDU.
Now for the overnight fun!
CK,
A bunch of stuff teetered on bankruptcy. There was some cliff diving. People got mad at Jas.
Nades got a first.
I pretty much know all the alts.
Nostrovia,
CR, you may be right about bottoming out in total U.S. auto sales, however, this is still not the whole story for GM:
Cheers!
If GM and Chrysler go under and cause some suppliers to go under, it would seem like a perfect opportunity for private equity to step in to support the suppliers that Ford, Toyota, etc, still use.
CK:
summary: snark, troll, !!!, WTF?, bush sux, obama messiah, stfu, doom...
Now for the overnight fun!
Eric | 02.17.09 - 7:55 pm | #
-----
Indeed! I'm starting to get bored unless something kicks in soon.
Nikkei futures are down (Yeah!)
Hang Seng futures are down (Yeah!)
Europe appears to be a sea of red (Yeah!)
US Indices are all Kermit (Whaa?)
Am I missing something? Chrysler submitted 4 fu..ing pages? Is that it?
If you want to see the median age of cars/trucks/light trucks
Keep in mind that is the median and as the unsustainable/unaffordable credit binging on cars happened, it skewed the distribution to the short end.
If you adjust for suburban realtor mom and Circuit city manager dad buying each of her kids 2 cars from their HELOC; that is unaffordable should never have been sold -- the median age drops off to 12.1 years
Given the standard huge warranties offered now, it's fair to assume that quality is not going to decline any time soon to reduce the median age of autos.
Jobs:Auto sales is the way to go
At the end of the day there either has to be future or past income from participating in the labor force to pay for it. From that base you can adjust for rural/urban, or expected used lifetime of an auto
Looking at licensed drivers is wrong, looking at implicit sales required to maintain fleet size relative to population or maintain fleet age is wrong
You cannot assume sales return to recent levels unless you understand the chain of events that produced the cash to fund the sale
Heck if you want an off the wall comparison, look at what different types of farmers need to buy a new truck in terms of the goods they produce
If you're happy with the what once was, will be line of logic -- then you might as well get on board the $1mn average national house price and Dow 36,000 by 2020 bandwago
--
"CR, Can you explain to me why US auto sales have to approach replacement rate?? It seems to me that you're ignoring the possibility of market share declines to foreign competition. Or the possibility that the retrenched US consumer will postpone replacement. I think your 2009 outlook is far too optimistic."
Gavshire Hathaway,
CR should be asking you the questions and learn, but he is an economist. He can't help but apply economic concepts that don't apply, or work, at critical turning point as the one we have at hands.
Someone pointed out that there are two automobiles per American (per adult?) and we can have a 40-year low annual rate for few years despite huge rise in population.
Depression economics is beyond CR, even beyond KRUGMAN.
Jas
gpblank,
Correct. That will be $5 Billion please.
RE writes:
If you watch that TED talk that EHP posted in the prior thread and look at the fast developing robotic capabilities then making these decision becomes a lot more complex. We as a society will have to decide what jobs we want to retain, not primarily based on economic efficiency but simply based on societal good.
Decision making is getting much more complex. Old value sticks are becoming quickly obsolete.
This is an early but very interesting test case for the medium term future..
This is such a good post. (granted intake fueled by three martinis)It means, literally translated, 'we buy our future', - There President Obama - Go sell it.
They're both one big ponzi scheme ...
Were the 4 pages single-spaced or double-spaced?
Any long-term buyers of F at a buck-eighty?
The family name alone is with $10B in bailout money, and they haven't even asked for a first round.
Guess the rest of the paper was eaten by a three headed dog.
Both sides of two cocktail napkins is barely 4 pages
decide what jobs we want to retain, not primarily based on economic efficiency but simply based on societal good
I think this is the percentage bet.
The popular idea that complex supply chains & products adjust "automagically" will be sorely tested.
.
I don't even bother with the comments here anymore most of the time, really. Too much chit chat, not enough info.
GM and Chrysler, and Ford, have fought for so long to make whatever POS they want in the U.S. and shove it down the consumer's throats that I have zero sympathy for them. I can't help but feel for their workers, though. I would say bail out the workers, help them form new companies, and let them take over the plants, re-fit them, demolish them, whatever.
As for the executives, screw 'em. They don't deserve a dime.
On the Clock writes:
Any long-term buyers of F at a buck-eighty?
It may be high now. It was about $1.02 at the last (recent) bottom.
OT but the Bank of America goof of the day.
"For any other aborted business trip, it would be a reasonable request. But Bank of America has been obliged to apologise for asking 23 staff to refund fares for the US Airways flight which splash-landed in New York's Hudson River.
The bank's employees were travelling to the firm's corporate headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, when US Airways flight 1549 dramatically ditched off Manhattan last month."
from the Guardian.
CR: 12.5 million units per year, and that sales will be below replacement demand
Why do you think that? There are many countries where replacement demand stays low when there is no "free" money to buy. Is the US immune to that?
and in the last post I meant to highlight the comment of "the current rate of sales being unsustainable" instead of the ray of sunshine (relative to the rest of the economy, prices are being cut and the USD has appreciated while gas has gone down... doesn't bode well for automaker profitability though). Last time I looked at the data, 10.5mn annual sales is a sustainable number for full employment and the present demographics. If you're hoping for 15.3mn annual sales within 5 years as the worst case scenario, you better darn well catch a Leprechaun quickly
If you want to see the median age of cars/trucks/light trucks
Keep in mind that is the median and as the unsustainable/unaffordable credit binging on cars happened, it skewed the distribution to the short end.
If you adjust for suburban realtor mom and Circuit city manager dad buying each of her kids 2 cars from their HELOC; that is unaffordable should never have been sold -- the median age drops off to 12.1 years
Given the standard huge warranties offered now, it's fair to assume that quality is not going to decline any time soon to reduce the median age of autos.
Jobs:Auto sales is the way to go
At the end of the day there either has to be future or past income from participating in the labor force to pay for it. From that base you can adjust for rural/urban, or expected used lifetime of an auto
Looking at licensed drivers is wrong, looking at implicit sales required to maintain fleet size relative to population or maintain fleet age is wrong
You cannot assume sales return to recent levels unless you understand the chain of events that produced the cash to fund the sale
Heck if you want an off the wall comparison, look at what different types of farmers need to buy a new truck in terms of the goods they produce
If you're happy with the what once was, will be line of logic -- then you might as well get on board the $1mn average national house price and Dow 36,000 by 2020 bandwago
Another hand-out to the wealthy dealer...per the PDF...all you guys complain about the unions, what about these FAT CATS?
crispy&cole
If they go BK the dealers will be cut drastically. Currently many states have buy out laws to keep franchises from being taken with out just payment. All of the big three were buying out dealers until they ran out of money. I assume under BK the judge can cancel these dealers contracts. Everybody gets kicked.
--
Nemo,
Jas won the Triple crown today -- GOLD, USTs and the Scam Market.
I am still up 23% in USTs (not including T-Bills that are cash equivalent) since the beginning of November 2008. Not too shabby, eh?
Jas
So the UAW and PIMCO are playing "chicken" with the U.S. taxpayer.
I am pretty sure I despise them both. Is that wrong?
Bob_in_MA, I think this is all a starting point for negotiations, and I'd guess the bailout number will shrink.
I think you have to start with somewhat conservative sales estimates and then go from there. These numbers look close to me.
Best to all.
donna writes:
I don't even bother with the comments here anymore most of the time, really. Too much chit chat, not enough info.
Honda laid off 50% of there shifts here two weeks ago, 2500 workers. Told them not to refuse other work. So whats your addition to the pool? My take away..
Jas writes: I am still up 23% in USTs
23% of nothing is what?
s0mebody, re: Ford, from the last thread
Ford has 2, at most 4, months of cash to burn more than GM
Not even 1 quarter's worth. They managed that because the one smart thing Mulally did was to sell assets early, and take out loans collateralized by any unencumbered assets
GM has a few things to sell, and a few factories they could take loans against (would only happen from the government now)
It's not that they don't need money, it's just that they have the luxury of not being the first in line
If they both survive 3 more years, GM has a big step up on Ford
"I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?"
GM is rolling out a new model as part of its take back america plan: The Pony.
Look, if you 4chan dudes are bored, why not try something constructive and push this meme...
Well...
Understand it, first.
The E. F. Schumacher Society • Buddhist Economics
What relevance is CR to y'all?
I'm not seeing it.
.
US Indices are all Kermit (Whaa?)
yagij | 02.17.09 - 7:59 pm | #
I wasn't watching closely, but I'm guessing they closed the futures in the hole, so the small green now is just getting that back.
Am I missing something? Chrysler submitted 4 fu..ing pages? Is that it?
gpblank | 02.17.09 - 7:59 pm | #
WSJ has links to Treasury site
177 page PDF from C
, and
117 from GM
.
==
"I am pretty sure I despise them both. Is that wrong?"
Nemo,
Bravo! I despise Crook Gross because he is a Merchant of Debt, which is as bad as Merchant of Deaths.
Jas
GM is rolling out a new model as part of its take back america plan: The Pony.
Didn't Ford kinda already bleed that idea to death with the Mustang?
Glad to see Doom was still front and center for the topics du jour. There were a whole lot of sad faces at the bar today as they watched their 401K's get abused...
The popular idea that complex supply chains & products adjust "automagically" will be sorely tested.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:03 pm | #
And a risky bet it will be. If I read the tea leaves correctly then we are closing in on a downward spiral. Lots of unintended casualties that do not fit the standard Adam Smith issue manual.
@scone - for those who missed the reference or need a 1980 flashback:
YouTube - Gary Numan - Cars
Rail is down.
nova | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:30 pm | #
Relative of a coworker was just laid off this week - a train conductor, due to freight dropoffs.
lol scone, love that song...
Nova,
Shipping costs by sea are dramatically DOWN, not up.
"On 21 May 2008 the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1998, reaching 11793 points. Less than half a year later, on 4 November 2008, the index had dropped by 93%, to 815 points,[7] the lowest since 1999. These low rates move dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews."
Baltic Dry Index: Definition from Answers.com
fried writes:
OT but the Bank of America goof of the day.
Of course the bank was quick to clarify that, as with other problems facing the bank, it was all the fault of middle management:
A Bank of America spokesman blamed mid-level employees for following standard procedure
You have to be 100% delusional to think the car companies will avoid bankruptcy. People have to have jobs to pay for the car. They can't qualify for financing if they are unemployed.
It's impossible to reverse the downward spiral of the automakers unless unemployment drops and incomes rise consistently for at least a year.
Without a middle class recovery in sight, no automaker can rebound.
Comrade Kristina writes:
GM is rolling out a new model as part of its take back america plan: The Pony.
Their on the right path, but cars here are social movement. They need to get it right. They should be buying as much of Hollywood as they can get. Script writers.
If people are concerned with auto company BKs bringing down the supply chain, the feds should establish a auto chain lending facility that will provide emergency short-term or DIP financing to any business essential to a viable nameplate. I suspect the money amounts would be small compared to what gets tossed around routinely these days.
KR:"What's my take away?"
4 million layoffs for this quarter?
Layoff Lawyer Sees Ominous Signs - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Enjoy.
.
I hate what martinis do to my grammar..
TCA | 02.17.09 - 7:29 pm
Some banks other an IRA product linked to FDIC guaranteed CDs. I believe you can rollover into this vehicle w/o penalty. See this as example:
https://www.wellsfargo.com/investing/retirement/destination_ira
--
"There were a whole lot of sad faces at the bar today as they watched their 401K's get abused..."
Comrade Kristina,
Scam Lovers cry for abuse! They are bona fide born-and-bred American dopes and they must get their proper due.
A Scam Hater and loving it,
Jas
donna writes:
GM and Chrysler, and Ford, have fought for so long to make whatever POS they want in the U.S. and shove it down the consumer's throats
Get off your high horse. If you paid attention to auto sales you would know they produce exactly what the American consumer prefers.
Every automaker selling cars in America lusted after the market they dominated with SUVs. I take it you didn't notice the surge in SUV sales last November once gas had dropped did you?
If you want a car with better mileage, the best ways to do it are by taking weight off (smaller car, fewer features, smaller engine). It's a direct paradox, you can't suddenly put out a land tank with 53 cup holders and great mileage and low MSRP
Look at the scorn the Chevy Volt garners from most Americans? $35,000, for a car snark snark snark
If you want to drop in European cars to the American market, first be aware that the EU has less stringent pollution standards (to encourage diesel usage to spread out demand for oil constituents and boost energy security)
and they cost a whole lot more while giving the consumer less
lol scone, love that song...
Comrade Kristina
.
Guess I should have attributed it, wouldn't want the all-powerful record industry after my ass.
[GM is estimating replacement demand is 12.5 million units per year, and that sales will be below replacement demand for the next 6 quarters or so]
Replacement for whom? If you watch credit trends as reported by COF & AXP today it's no wonder credit is drying up. COnsumers are in a bind and replacement will be recalibrated to a much lower number. Even rental car companies have capitulated holding cars for 50k mi +.
Repair shops and tire dealers will get a lot of new business.
Just a note: There is a huge difference between cars and houses. Housing stock is durable and can last 50 years, 100 years (if maintained a little) and even more.
Cars for the most part need to be replaced regularly, and the current turnover rate is close to 25 years. Even if there are too many cars right now - in an earlier post I estimated a decline in the car / driver ratio back to the early '80s - cars will not last on average 20 years (or even close).
The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year).
I don't know where the bottom is for sales, but I do think we are much closer to the bottom than the top.
Best to all.
I can go to Europe and get a Ford Ranger with a 4 or 6 cyl diesel engine, or any other manuf. product configured in diesel.
I am now driving an '02 Jetta TDI, bought new in Sept, '02.
Last month I bought my wife a Jetta Sportwagon, TDI.
I had to wait until the licenseing agreement between Mercedes Benz carefully worded-out "Blutec", so as not to diminish the MB brand allure here in USA.
If the "Big Three" offered a diesel model, I would have certainly looked, at the very least. (autos, not 3/4 ton PU's)
If i were running GM, we would be in Bolleywood shooting movies like Bullet updated.
Rumors are such that they can just plain put you out of business, Bear Stearns former CEO Alan Ace Greenberg tells FRONTLINE.
This series appears to frame the banks as victims...if so, it is a con.
Walking along the scenic C&O Canal in the weekend it struck me that we need a completely new approach to infrastructure, one that will employ millions of humans and machines, throughout the value chain, from designers, architects, appraisers, economists, and engineers of many varieties and involve trillions of dollars in stimulus for not only the infrastructure but every related industry/conversion, and new industries that inevitably arise just as the invisible hand works its magic:
AN INTERSTATE CANAL NETWORK!
PERSONAL SUBMARINES, LIKE ON STINGRAY!
That's gotta be shovel-ready.
Just think: no more swathes of concrete blighting the land, freeways raised and arching over the nation's cities and rivers, car pollution, congestion (well, if it was wide and deep enough you could vertical stacks of lanes not just horizontal ones - imagine the volume).
And the cross-over to municipal lite-canal is just compelling.
The Age of Aqueosity is At Hand!
C
American cars: It's not just the performance, it's the luxury!
YouTube - Tim Drives an Aries
A Scam Hater and loving it,
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:16 pm
Some of them I truly feel for, others I take secret glee in watching their retirement dissolve before their eyes. Mostly the ones that were trying to convince me that the market was dropping because of the stimulus bill dropping...I got a good chuckle out of that one...if they only knew they'd probably kill themselves...
âRumors are such that they can just plain put you out of business," Bear Stearns' former CEO Alan âAce" Greenberg tells FRONTLINE.
Anonymous | 02.17.09 - 8:18 pm | #
Yeah, like his traders never ever spread rumors on shorts they had.
--
"I hate what martinis do to my grammar."
KR,
Try Cognac! That is what I just poured for myself.
Cheers!
Jas
"The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year)."
Many of these cars are rarely if ever used, esp given all the layoffs.
Oddly enough.....the best "bang for the buck" stimulus is keeping both of these dinosaurs alive and kicking.
It seems counter-intuitive, but a few billion here or there keeps millions of people employed......much more than the $758 billion stimulus plan.
It's really a hard call.....I don't know what I would do if I were Obama
Anonymous writes:
@scone - for those who missed the reference or need a 1980 flashback:
.
Thx
Did anyone ever figure out what happened last night with the Asian markets and Denningers wig out?
why doesnt the guy with an ira just take a 60-day temp distribution or equivalent and get it into a plain vanilla brokerage account and buy brokered $90,000 cd's? or i would imagine by now they're $230,000 brokered cds?
Calculated Risk,
Cars will last as long as you throw parts at them. The replacement figure is based on a vibrant economy where value is seen differently. The life forward may be much longer then we would normally expect. Cuba still drives pre Castor American cars.
Cordoba
There was a big currency shift, probably responsible for today's crash.
Go to a lesser-off country and gauge their auto "replacement" frequency. They mostly maintain, repair and replace the moving parts. New car purchases are much less common. All we need is sea-change shift in our consumers' thinking about their "need" for "new" cars and our replacement frequency will increase significantly. Nothing like a Great Recession or incipient Depression to bring about such a sea-change.
WHen there are millions no longer working why will they need a new car? This bubble (like many of us have said for yearssssss) will put to bed many old business myths
--
"The median age of U.S. vehicles is already at an all time high (9.2 years for cars in 2007) and moving higher. This suggests a rebound in sales up towards the replacement rate (GM estimates this as 12.5 million per year)."
CR,
The quality of cars has gone up like crazy. Have you noticed that? I know of many common cars that were running OK at 300K. That wasn't the case in 1970s and 1980s.
Jas
Well yeah Hoops, we knew that last night, but did anyone figure out why?
"Lots of unintended casualties that do not fit the standard Adam Smith issue manual"
You need to read his first book, re-released after Wealth of Nations...
Adam Smith - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"it has been reported that Smith himself "always considered his Theory of Moral Sentiments a much superior work to his Wealth of Nations"."
A debt money system requires identity, gold does not. It also requires a network of relationships, which means there are dependencies. It's probably a geometric function, which is why th global system is failing so thoroughly now.
There'd still be dependencies in a commodity-based system but I can't help wondering if it would be more robust.
.
Uh oh, there's a big Swedish flag on drudge.
"Hoosier Peasant writes:
You have to be 100% delusional to think the car companies will avoid bankruptcy. People have to have jobs to pay for the car. They can't qualify for financing if they are unemployed.
It's impossible to reverse the downward spiral of the automakers unless unemployment drops and incomes rise consistently for at least a year.
Without a middle class recovery in sight, no automaker can rebound."
Not to sound like a total protectionist commie nazi, but isn't the elephant in the room in all this auto talk global wage arbitrage?
Ruh roh, did I just get my reason?
--
Evildoer Greenspan is dispensing KOOL-AID on CNBC-World.
Jas
I went through the FT today and saw that a korean bank tapped a national fund in its country which I hypothecate could have just been a currency basket... but who knows.
If i were running GM, we would be in Bolleywood shooting movies like Bullet updated.
KR | 02.17.09 - 8:17 pm | #
Have a car chase sequence like that in India...I take it you have never been to India. Sure they could clar the streets to shoot it, but it would not look like india to any Indian, unless maybe it were in a dream sequence
I could really use a Swedish model myself right about now.
4 million layoffs for this quarter?
Real Time Economics - WSJ
All those who still claim peak UE at 8%...sorry...
bobn,
They don't sell the explorer in Europe.
The Edge is sold in the US and Europe.
$26,000 MSRP in the US
~$40,000 MSRP in Europe
You still want the European model?
CR, with all due respect - my buddy owns a dealership. He says the showroom is picking up traffic but ssales continue to decline. Buyers come in with abysmal credit, severely upside down on present vehicles and leases they can't close out because of penalties... just horrifying as described by him.
We're a long way from a sustainable recovery. Consumer balance sheets are too impaired and getting worse.
Comrade Kristina writes:
Did anyone ever figure out what happened last night with the Asian markets and Denningers wig out?
You nailed it. He wigged out. Too funny.
Yes car sales may increase in the US, but let's not forget GM's market share has been cliff-diving. And it's fall will accelerate in Fall 2009 on when China starts importing comparable quality cars at a much lower price (maybe Walmart will sell them . . . .)
and Denningers wig out?
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:21 pm | #
That's his schtick. Move along, nothing to see here.
Well yeah Hoops, we knew that last night, but did anyone figure out why?
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:23 pm | #
My take is that it was because Moody's threatened to downgrade euro zone banks with significant exposure to the weakening economies in Eastern and Central Europe.
But he had atomic bomb footage!!! I thought we were going to be into cannibalism today, running through the streets like wild animals, smashing things, and howling wordlessly in shock rage and confusion... hell I even shot my entire family in preparation. How could Denniger mislead me so?
"Did anyone ever figure out what happened last night with the Asian markets and Denningers wig out?
Comrade Kristina"
Yves Smith validated his concern.
--
"23% of nothing is what?"
Bornen Bredd,
And you are lookin'! Dopes love to reveal themselves.
Jas
Andreas
Market share cliff-diving? Where?
Maybe compared to the glory days of the 70s, but they've held on strongly to their 20% of America
What's more they are a big presence in China, one of the markets with good growth and Ford is strong in Latin America, another market with good growth prospects
hell I even shot my entire family in preparation
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:28 pm | #
Well, you're set for food for a bit, at least.
hell I even shot my entire family in preparation.
f'ing hilarious
Hoopajoops LTD writes:
I thought we were going to be into cannibalism today, running through the streets like wild animals, smashing things, and howling wordlessly in shock rage and confusion...
Wait, you didn't do that stuff?
Yes, I have never been to india, HK and 50 others, but yes, not that bullet scene. Maybe they should do Vancouver now. something like 10 gangland shootings in as many days... its way out of hand. I ran a business there in the toughest block, i know what out of hand is. Its out of hand.
Bought a 1987 Acura Legend, still own it, it's doing fine with 270K mi. I'm 65 and will probably die before it does.
This business about life spans of cars (foreign built) is way too short. The only reason to buy a new one is the "I gotta have it" mentality", then you can justify anything.
My un-educated guess is those charts for buying new only come into play when times are fair to good. As most posters here know, we're in for a rough ride, so don't expect anyone will be buying big ticket items for a long, long time.
Cordoba
Nemo
.
His rich "Corinthian leather" chest with the pneumatic boob inserts. They do things. Disturbing.
I sold Ford vehicles one summer a few years back. The average buyer traded in for a new car every 2.3 years. I do believe people can make it to 7 years per vehicle if they must.
Plug that data in and you might be surprised at the sales figures for the next few years.
PS Credit scores are tanking further diminishing the buying pool. +1 year.
CR,
Gotta agree with Jas about the durability of cars. I bought my first "new" car in 1985--a Honda Accord. Put 300K+ miles on it w/o any major problems. Sold it to a friend in 2001--he still drives it to work every day (approx 30 mi round trip). Pretty much the same luck with Mazdas and Subarus--75,000 miles is still like having a new car.
Have a car chase sequence like that in India...I take it you have never been to India. Sure they could clar the streets to shoot it, but it would not look like india to any Indian, unless maybe it were in a dream sequence
Dirk | 02.17.09 - 8:25 pm | #
I've unintentionally been in a few auto rickshaw races in India. They were quite exciting and would have satisfied any movie addict...
I suspect anyone who believes that these companies would not be back in another 6 months or so asking for another $30, $40, $50 billions and so on and so on is a fool.
America is on the verge of GD II, and there is NO turnaround for these companies. They are DEAD !
Face it, and don't throw good money (you may bitterly need in the future) into that rathole.
As you see now, the state's (and municipalities) finances are starting to comme apart. The story is not just anymore about GM and Chrysler. It's much much bigger, and to brace for that you need every dime you can muster.
It's letting the small thing go in order to have a chance to save the larger game.
--
Evildoer Greenspan: "More money is need"!
How about giving all your money, you evildoer?
You should be nailed to the cross live with 1000s of video cameras broadcasting live worldwide. Then, there may be some hope for America because then the Crooks will run for their lives. I don't expect that; hence, no hope for Americas better future. Please dont give me the BS about the American People being very resourceful and all. They are irremediable dopes and evildoers are running wild.
Jas
Sorry if this has already been posted, this is what Drudge was referring to with the Swedish Flag
Financial Times,
It appears "nationalization" is gaining popularity...Hoocoodanode?
If anyone is waiting for the government to stick it to Pimco and Gross you are going to be waiting for a long time. Pimco is probably the biggest buyer of treasuries (used as collateral for derivatives) in the world. They get pissed and they threaten to use cash as collateral, they get what they want from Timmy and they use UST's
"I sold Ford vehicles one summer a few years back. The average buyer traded in for a new car every 2.3 years. I do believe people can make it to 7 years per vehicle if they must."
would you say the average buyer earned an above average income?
Maybe they should do Vancouver now. something like 10 gangland shootings in as many days... its way out of hand. I ran a business there in the toughest block, i know what out of hand is. Its out of hand.
KR
.
Are we talking Canada, or Washington state? I'm guessing the Highlands.
I suspect anyone who believes that these companies would not be back in another 6 months or so asking for another $30, $40, $50 billions and so on and so on is a fool.
So why is Germany ready to put money into Opel? Supporting a loser like a fool?
bearly, of course ... and that is part of the reason sales are so dismal.
But that won't last forever. I'm not sure when sales will bottom, but I think it could happen sometime this year.
Obviously GM thinks it will happen in Q1 2009 according to that chart (although they aren't forecasting much of a rebound for the rest of the year).
U.S. Sales were below 10 million unit rate in January (based on reports from GM, Ford, and Toyota) - and buyers are having difficulty obtaining financing AND are very concerned - and I agree the financing will probably stay difficult for some time, and job losses will continue, so I can understand being pessimistic.
But as a reminder, some people in 2005 thought castles (house prices) would grow to the sky. Now some people think sales of all things will go to zero. As Paul Kasriel noted last week:
"The economic data are likely to be abysmal through the first half of this year. The popular media will reinforce the gloom of the data. The same pundits who did not see this downturn coming will not see the recovery coming either."
I'd add that some people will see a depression coming forever ... maybe they will be right this time ... but they will miss the eventual bottom. Yes, someday the economy will bottom ...
best wishes.
CR is not counting the people who will downsize from 2 cars to 1 car per family (or 3 to 2). Compare per capita car use in USA to Europe - plenty of room for a permanent reduction in per capita car usage - especially on the coasts, where distances are shorter.
Cuba gets 50 years out of their cars. We may end up doing the same.
Arrr, these be the headlines from Yves site, and I don't see any mention of Karl D. No mention of Karl's rumor, tall tale of financial finality that it was.
* Black Hole Alert: GM, Chrysler Seeking More Federal Support - Feb 17, 2009
* Links 2/17/09 - Feb 17, 2009
* William Black: "There Are No Real Stress Tests Going On" - Feb 17, 2009
* So Much For Stimulus: Chinese Loans Diverted to Stocks, Feeding Rally - Feb 17, 2009
* Dizard: Financial Industry Reform is in Limbo - Feb 17, 2009
I worked all day, can somebody summarize the few thousand comments I missed today?
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Chrysler must die. GM must die.
We're fucked.
I was talking to the guys over at the local Goodyear Tire and Auto about people keeping their cars longer and how it would good for their business.
They told me that they are seeing people bring their cars in when they absolutely need it, like the brakes are not working cause the brake pads are totally gone. They think that people are so low on money that they will drive their cars to point where only safety matters.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...It appears "nationalization" is gaining popularity...Hoocoodanode?...
And you think the governments bureaucrats are more capable to run these companies ?
Good luck !
Wow, Asia tanking in early trading:
Nikki - approaching 1% down
Hangie - pushing 4%, but China Ent's pushing -5%
Shanghai - a number of indexes pushing -4%
ASX/NZX - 2%+ down already
Could be a long day.
C
And you think the governments bureaucrats are more capable to run these companies ?
Good luck !
Werner | 02.17.09 - 8:42 pm
You mean more capable than the bozos that created exotic financial instruments that would ultimately destroy the entire World's economy? Uhm yeah...
Comrade,
I would say the average buyer bought way above their income and credit score. The poster above that talked about the buddy with the dealership with deal/credit impaired buyers is spot on.
Doesn't matter if you want to buy if you are upside down in you 2004 Ford Expedition that has a crap trade in value. You will be driving that Expedition long past the point you want to be.
The revenge of the SUV is at a dealership near you.
8 Ball,
We called them tow truck sales. When money was tight they drove them till they died.
Arrr, these be the headlines from Yves site, and I don't see any mention of Karl D. No mention of Karl's rumor, tall tale of financial finality that it was.
It's under the links:
RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process Market Ticker (hat tip reader dzzle) He is right, the currency moves this evening are major. It does not look good.
CR,
Thanks for the post I guess.
Still if you didn't read my rant, you might want to look at my mention of how the recent credit binge skewed the fleet age distribution so as to lower the median age beyond that of a fleet represented by real demand.
Secondary justsification of that point is the growth in the usable lifetime of a car, versus the growth in median age. Credit accounts for the discrepancy
It's one of the easiest things to model if you take historical sales, and impute an average lifetime from the time of sale.
Just because there has been a long deviation from real demand, doesn't mean it will restore itself and last forever.
Once again, the current sales are as expected by me. According to your model, they are pure insanity and unexpected.
It's not about there being a single equilibrium sales amount or a price. It's about what is the feasible range, and the sustainable centerline.
If you think I'm crazy, the best way to do it is by justifying 'productivity' increases in the economy from a bottom up basis since 1980.
CRBot, you need to change your name and function to CRSummaryBot!
.
Could some credit marketeers throw more light on the Chrysler Bankruptcy possibility ? Is it a CDS event ? What will cerebrus do etc ?
into cannibalism today -- CHECK
running through the streets like wild animals -- CHECK
smashing things -- CHECK
howling wordlessly in shock rage and confusion -- CHECK
shot entire family -- CHECK
Just another typical day in my neck-of-the-woods ...
People have mentioned the reasons cars may go a long time without replacement - older cars are rarely used spares, repair is almost always an option, and even the lousiest cars today are pretty good by historical standards. I will add the anecdotal observation that I know almost nobody who will need a new car in the next 2 years.
My take is that the average car could easily be kept on the road for another 2 years, resulting in a median car age increase of about 1 year. That would produce a 1 year shortfall in car replacement. So if the replacement rate is 12.5M/per year we could stay at 10M for FIVE years, without any significant quality of life impairment for drivers. I think 10M for five years is the minimum for a "stress test" of car company survival and a restructuring plan that couldn't handle that should be rejected.
Ford still produces the Escort, 3cyl diesel, 45mpg, no thrills, need to bring this one back home...
The revenge of the SUV is at a dealership near you.
anon | 02.17.09 - 8:44 pm | #
I posted this last week but it is worth of a repost considering the topic. Several dealers in the area are running ads for Jeep Grand Cherokees for $16,999. That's 48% off of MSRP for a 2009 and it can be had with 0% Financing for 5 years.
Westbury Jeep Chrysler Dodge | New Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep dealership in Jericho, NY 11753
How long can they sell cars for 50% off and remain alive?
"I'd add that some people will see a depression coming forever..." Calculated Risk
And some of us think that we just went up the biggest hill of the rollercoaster, and the biggest plunge just might be on the other side as the worst-case scenario, and the best thing that might happen is a gentle zig-zaggy ride to the bottom. At least until humanity solves a future problem re: shortages in a few resources, especially oil.
"I am still up 23% in USTs (not including T-Bills that are cash equivalent)"
Just wondering. Could they pull a Kansas some day and defer the pay off on mature bonds?
What I envision is Chrysler going bust. GM drops Pontiac, Saab, Saturn, and possibly Buick. They pick up Jeep from the remnants of Chrysler. GM survives. So does Ford. And don't forget Hyundai! Its pronounced like Sunday...
So, after taking the country from a $5.6 trillion surplus to a $1.2 trillion deficit, the GOP all of a sudden says no more stimulus ( unless it lines their crooked pockets ).
Also no more bailout money for GM or Chrysler, the crooked banks, tax cuts for the rich, and so on....
Obama just nationalize and get as much of a clean slate as possible or else your 4 yrs will be hell !
A north Idaho guy who received an extreme makeover house is in foreclosure, he apparently took out a $400,000 loan against it.
Wow, Asia tanking in early trading:
Ah, excellent, I'll have to find a way to deceptively graph that to Obama signing the Stimulus Bill.
People have cause-n-effect reversed. The financial derivatives were a function of debt growth, not vice versa.
.
char,
GM plans to go ahead with 4 brands according to their submitted plan
Cadillac, Buick, Chevrolet, GMC
norma writes:
A north Idaho guy who received an extreme makeover house is in foreclosure, he apparently took out a $400,000 loan against it.
norma | 02.17.09 - 8:49 pm |
For some reason that made me laugh really loud.
All,
IO have a friend that bought late... he is waiting for his interst deductions from his income tax to come back in the form of refund, then he drops the house...
wonder for those that are on the fence , that have made payments but underwater, how many will do this for cash in pocket..he got the idea from daddy-o...
seems there are millions that could do this if they realize/think that they will be years before they realize break even on purchase price but make theior payments now...
thoughts??????? please???
How is anyone going to buy a car when there getting laid off. Car Sales aren't going to increase anytime soon unless they are given away for free.
We called them tow truck sales. When money was tight they drove them till they died.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 02.17.09 - 8:45 pm | #
I live in Montclair, NJ, a very wealthy town in Northern NJ. This is a bad sign for the rest of the country
Economist Moe Howard 3SU writes:
...So why is Germany ready to put money into Opel? Supporting a loser like a fool?...
As far as I know (it was discussed in german news) Opel by itselfs is profitable !
That's why, and only that.
If it should turn out that this is not true, they are gone too. You can read today in German newspapers : "No VEB Opel!". (VEB means a Volkseigener Betrieb, which was the economic structure of the former East-Germany. We payed enough to liquidate/unwind the bankrupt East German economy after the reunification, so no appetite for that anymore.
"CRBot, you need to change your name and function to CRSummaryBot!"
Oh, you mean by appending the first letter of every comment together to form a single 300 character comment? I'm just a bot, I don't come programmed with "value call" subroutines.
Greenspan chimes in with his advice for recovery.
Greenspan Says U.S. May Not Be Doing Enough to Promote Recovery - Bloomberg.com
I'm certain that the UAW drone currently putting together your Ford, GM or Chrysler product really gives a crap about doing quality work.
They know they are gonna get canned in days to months, and if they survive the UAW will have to concede much of their benefits. And they are making cars that everybody knows are just going to sit around on lots, or be eventually dumped, scrapped or sold for parts. And that high end Corvettes will really get screwed up, since they are going to be purchased by rich iceholes who aren't affected by this depression.
Buyer Beware.
My Ford is 8 years old. I'm retired, put 3000 miles on it a year and have it totally checked out every 6 months. It is LONG since paid for and I have absolutely no intention of buying a new car anytime soon. And the truth is I don't know anyone who is. All my neighbors have had their same car for years. My BIL bought a 2 year old truck to replace his old POS a few months ago (owns a farm and needed it), wouldn't even consider a new one.
I think everone feels the same these days even if they could afford to buy new.
Comrade Short Bucky
Denninger link was in the Links:
"RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process Market Ticker (hat tip reader dzzle) He is right, the currency moves this evening are major. It does not look good."
Fords makes a European version of the upcoming 2010 Fiesta that has a diesel engine rated 63mpg. The problem is the engine is made in England and if they imported it to the U.S. it drive the price of the Fiesta too high and Ford doesn't have enough money to build a diesel engine plant here in the U.S. (that's what I read a few months ago).
Remove municipal salt and life span would increase x3
Screw Cerberus. Top Gear had this little bug on last night. 160hp pocket rocket. Serious speed and handling, and not cop bait:
http://www.autoblog.com/2008/02/27/160hp-fiat-500-abarth-ss-to-follow-in-november/
Oh and so i will be on topic, Fiat gets first rights over dead meat, yet fiat is asking for EU bank help
Talking Points Memo: 1
The Huffington Post: 2
Lifehacker: 3
Metafilter: 4
The Daily Dish: 5
I am goin to burn through the next few......ahhhh phelpsing, its a zen habbit. Bleating heart conscience of a liberal. Deadspin dooce.
Daily Kos.
-keeping up with the Blogdes is the new black.
My studies indicate Studebaker and Nash will be making a comeback.
Thaksin,
Chrysler does not take Cerberus down. Each of their ventures is separated, and the only people directly exposed are the ones who specifically contributed to get a piece of the action.
Would trigger CDS if went into bankruptcy. Can't imagine it being too eventful given how well the much larger ones were handled (and non-ISDA settlement hidden)
Chrysler has been even more poorly run since the takeover, so it shouldn't be any surprise.
Biggest question would be what happens to former Chrysler assets, joint venture productions, and all the employee obligations
Best solution IMO would be a French national champion cobbling together. Government induced merger of Ford and GM, along with free passage from any dealer brand obligations (it's not so simple as doing away with Saturn, dealers have contracts enforceable that can only be broken by bankruptcy as it stands... and no one is buying that problem off GM)
Bottom line : management must go. They were at the wheel for the biggest corporate screw up in modern times. And UAW must go too.
They are both pea-brained sized dinosaurs who didn't even blink with the asteroid hit in front of them.
So, after taking the country from a $5.6 trillion surplus
There was never a surplus. Under Clinton, the national debt grew from $4.1 trillion to $5.7 trillion.
You aren't "paying down your credit card" if your balance is higher at the end of each month.
Now handing off thread to Jas for perfunctory rant about "born and bred dopes".
Wow, Asia tanking in early trading:
Counterpointer | 02.17.09 - 8:43 pm | #
-----
The futures were down so I'm not surprised that the markets are down.
What I want to know is where were you last night?
GM and Chrysler are great cars...
FOR ME TO POOP ON.
Werner,
There is good reason for both countries to invest properly to save and support our car companies. You poorly backed into you comment. Opel is GM"s Vauxall as well. I hope they finish their HCCI gas diesel engine. I am very intrigued to see it. I have seen the DiesOtto from MBZ.
Millennium, based in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, offers five-year CDs with interest rates of 6.5 percent to 7.75 percent on deposits of $100,000 or more.
Millennium boasts on its website that it is "not affected by the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage practices of large domestic banks."
Millennium also says on its website it is wholly-owned by United Trust of Switzerland S.A., although Business Week said regulators in Switzerland have not heard of United Trust.
Millennium did not return calls requesting comment and the U.S. SEC declined to comment.
On its site, Millennium explains it can offer high rates of return because "deposits in most countries are protected by a form of deposit insurance. Deposits in international private banks are not."
Caribbean's Millennium Bank is like Stanford-report
| Reuters
Sniff ^ Sniff
Increase the tax credit for purchasing plug-in hybrid vehicles to $7,500. Stimulas 101
GM has what Hybrid ready for sale...
--
Born-and-bred American dopes don't know that Adam Smith firmly believed that you need a moral basis, or mooring, for a successful economic system.
Hayek also believed in ethics, politics and economics as basis of a prosperous society. Hayek's big failing was that he took ethics for granted. Serious blind spot in his free-market theology. Ethics are anything but given and that is why born-and-bred American dopes must suffer for allowing evildoers to take control of the econo-political system by manipulating morality and replacing it with amorality. One of the greatest Greek thinkers, before Socrates, was Protagoras, labeled a sophist. Labeling Protagoras as sophist and Plato as philosopher is part of the brainwashing, or prejudice. Protagoras is famous for: Man is measure of all things. Propagandists like Greenspan, Limbaugh, Obama, are in the false measurement business!
Jas
Scone-
Saw that....looked cool, sounded cool until I realized what it was......a Fiat in disguise.
Had One....put a flat 6 Porsche engine in a Brava. Went like stink......and then Fiat left America and something as simple as door hinges or window seals became extremely expensive and hard to find.
Now normally you wouldn't need something like a door hinge....but if you've never owned a Fiat......
Ciao
MS
FRONTLINE: "Inside The Meltdown" (Sept 2008). P.B.S @ 9PM Eastern. (now)
Oh, you mean by appending the first letter of every comment together to form a single 300 character comment?
No, keyword count and phrase extraction. Come on, Google can do it. Shirley you are as competent as...(smirk) Goo-gle?
I'll do it for $50K, though.
.
LAM - "remove municipal salt and lifespan would increase x3"??
Yes, but cretinism would too.
Oh, wait.
It must have already happened.
Imagine the impact of ctreyins living x3 longer. (erm, Greenspan, Madoff, whoever...)
C
"I think everone feels the same these days even if they could afford to buy new."
That's me... own 2 cars, both paid for. A 1968 Plymouth (runs great) and an 8 year old truck. Could buy new for cash. . . but why?
A tribute to the auto industry. America loves our cars and we will miss you guys.
Thread music.
YouTube - Ricky Lee Jones - Last Chance Texaco
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:57 pm | #
One word - clueless !
Sorry, but I really have disagree with CR on this. The decline in auto sales is not only "sustainable", but can go MUCH lower.
What CR is neglecting to consider is that the inherent demand for cars is actually very elastic. You can't just take a mathematical formula that calculates the number of cars needed for the population, or the existing number of vehicles, and assume that this existing fleet must be kept intaxt.
In good times people will consume more cars than they really have to. Families will buy cars for each of their teen-agers, as well as deciding to keep a car for each parent. By contrast, when times get tough many people discover that there is no reason teens can't take public transit, or that they can't better coordinate activities to share a single car.
I personally know of families who have made decisions in the last year to downsize the number of vehicles in their families. One of my friends has started taking the bus to work so he could get rid of one of their automobiles. Myself, I have been bicycling to work for 8 years (I sold my car 7 years ago).
There is NO reason we can't see the US car fleet shrink substantially on a PERMANENT basis.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...You mean more capable than the bozos that created exotic financial instruments that would ultimately destroy the entire World's economy? Uhm yeah...
I think the government bureaucrats (in the form of regulators), semi government bureaucrats (in the form of Fannie/Fredy, NRSROs and not least the FED) as well as Congress itselfs (overseeing the whole mess and looking to it that that evil is legal (!) and nobody sees anything until you could not hide it anymore) were heavily involved.
Imagine how they would/could mess up GM and Chrysler.
Werner, another reason to save GM,
Fear of GM Job Cuts in Europe: German Government Considers Stake in Carmaker Opel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Werner, I was referring to the banks not GM...
--
"That's me... own 2 cars, both paid for."
JBR,
There are "a few good men" like us!
Jas
Greenspan on CNBC. I've come to the conclusion he's a sociopath.
Talking about the collapse as though he was an outsider looking in, had no involvement or was was in any way responsible. Also, talking about the credit failures and asset deflation as though they are random events not rational market correction for lack of oversight or discipline, blaming instead on fear and emotion.
The entire thing is surreal.
He's lucky no one with a spine is on the Q&A panel.
If GM goes down ..how will Obama get his multi-million dollar car serviced ?
Will he switch to a LEXUS ?
Jas,
is that Selma Hayak?
Now normally you wouldn't need something like a door hinge....but if you've never owned a Fiat......
Ciao
MS
.
Yeah, I remember. But still. And even my Honda is not what Hondas used to be-- fit and finish not so good, and a couple of things hanging loose after less than a year. I'd rather be in a POS that goes like the proverbial bat outta hell than a POS that bores me to death, which is what Honda has decided to be.
One word - clueless !
Exactly.
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
Run the app, genius. I've been tracking the National Debt online since 1990.
.
Screw Cerberus. Top Gear had this little bug on last night. 160hp pocket rocket. Serious speed and handling, and not cop bait:
scone | 02.17.09 - 8:53 pm | #
In Europe definitive cop bait. Everybody there still knows what a Fiat Abarth is about: speed! Fiat Abarth were the very first pocket rockets.
How come a bk would cost jobs? Wouldn't the same number of cars be sold? Somebody else would make them and would hire more people. Am I dumb?
You still want the European model?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.17.09 - 8:25 pm | #
Not sure why you directed this at me. I never brought up the Explorer or the Edge. The only european models I'm interested in don't have wheels.
dumb ed | 02.17.09 - 9:07 pm | #
Same number of cars will be sold..but of the JIMMY brand from china.
Jobs will be created in China. GUINDONG province. not in MI
In Europe definitive cop bait. Everybody there still knows what a Fiat Abarth is about: speed! Fiat Abarth were the very first pocket rockets.
RE
.
I thought you guys pulled that "Italian Job" escape shit on the local talent.
Inside the Meltdown, PBS, just started
--
"Sorry, but I really have disagree with CR on this. The decline in auto sales is not only "sustainable", but can go MUCH lower."
Sniglet,
Your error is taking CR seriously. He is clueless about the demand. He doesn't know what has hit the US e-CON-omy. He still believes in "no severe recession" scenario to the best of my knowledge. We are at the verge of a depression. The guy is a dismal scientist, for God's sake.
Economists exist to make witch doctors look good!
Jas
My wife has laid down the ultimatium as i critisized her day old creation of a facebook page, and desire to watch nothing but american idol...she said "well you talk with CR folks whats the difference?" is my marriage done for? she is a Kindergarten teacher and blond???????
Run the app, genius. I've been tracking the National Debt online since 1990.
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 9:06 pm
I thought the Clinton "surplus" referred to an annual budget surplus, not whether he retired the entire U.S. national debt. Have you heard different?
eponymous writes:
...I'm certain that the UAW drone currently putting together your Ford, GM or Chrysler product really gives a crap about doing quality work...
Exactly !
Buying stuff from them for "normal prices" doesn't make any sense. For a e.g. 40% rebate perhaps if you want to endure the hassle of frequent trips to the repair shop.
JBR, those old Plymouths were something else. Chrysler DID make good cars at one time.
When my dad retired he had 2 cars an older Plymouth and a newer Buick. He sold the Buick, kept the Plymouth, it was in great shape when he died 10 years later.
yagij - last night I was getting 10 hours of uninterrupted sleep getting over flu. Bliss!
Anyway, futures still miserable, from Bloomie:
\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
Nikkei 225\t7,530.00\t-110.00\t-1.44
Topix\t748.50\t-10.50\t-1.38
Hang Seng\t12,890.00\t-489.00\t-3.65
Singapore Straits Times\t1,637.00\t-1.00\t-0.06
S&P/ASX\t3,346.00\t-95.00\t-2.76
I think extractives are gonna get whacked again.
C
Fudgejuicyairy Doodie writes:
You know what you have to do.
TCA-
Check with Vanguard on opening a brokerage account and shuffling your short term money in one of their CD/ checking accounts. It's painless if you already have an account with them.
If you have over a million in investable assets, they'll do a lot of hand holding to put you into the right short term instruments given your constraints.
If that doesn't help, I'd be willing to trade my Admiral shares in MM Bills for a very reasonable premium:)
crispy-
The "wealthy dealer network" plugged all their money in land development deals and local ethanol and bio-diesel startups...ooops
Hoop-
I thought you weren't gonna put any money in banks? What happened?
Glad to see Rob Dawg back.
Frontline on, framed, distilled--frontline=bullshit
"You know what you have to do."
If the fin servs practice goes TU, sounds like you'd be great in family law.
How come a bk would cost jobs? Wouldn't the same number of cars be sold? Somebody else would make them and would hire more people. Am I dumb?
dumb ed
They would dump overlap labor from old union agreements and probably more robotics. A friend is a rail road retiree. He told me to remove a radiator out of a locomotive it took three different union employees. Plumber to disconnect the water lines, another electrician to remove electrical connections and a machinist to remove the bolts and radiator. Now to install reverse the procedure. Lots of time wasted lining up the three twice to do what one man could.
I miss the Nova. No really. You could turn it into a totally psychobilly ride.
RE: Frontline: one would be better served watching Wheel of Fortune
Thaksin - there is no such place as GUINDONG, unless Paltrow has bought one and sought naming rights.
C
I know almost nobody who will need a new car in the next 2 years.
Use the gas tax to put a price floor on gasoline, and add rebates to make the tax progressive (!). No demand for gas-sipping cars when gasoline's at $2.
Redistributive as hell, but no different from the mortgage interest deduction or $250K deposit insurance.
So, roll it over to a bank IRA and put it in a CD. No tax impact.
My wife says you can all go to hell.....our worlds just rotate on different axis..
What, no bail-out for Cerberus?
So, roll it over to a bank IRA and put it in a CD. No tax impact.
rich | 02.17.09 - 9:15 pm | #
If it's an IRA, sure. If he meant "401k", he's kinda hosed.
Just check out the engine on this Nova, seriously. This is what we are losing, folks. Say goodbye:
http://rides.superchevy.com/ride/1010040/bryan935/1971/chevrolet/nova/photos/8.html
re: British Jobs for British Workers
I know the theme song for that one:
YouTube - Skinflicks - What I Am
she said one of these contestants will be employed,,,,without a stimulus...oooooo f'k .... and i am psycho for questioning her desire to look up friends withy facebook...arrrgh//
hoop i will smother her at 135 am but i need an alabi
Sports Guy Lafleur..I have a 1972 Sears snowblower (no lights, but a tecumseh engine), that lost the high speed screw from the carbureator about a month ago. The Sears parts web site just laughed at me. I took the carb off, and went to some parts store looking for pity. I also brought the Sears manual with all the parts numbers. One guy used the Sears part number on the Tecumseh engine, and found and ordered the parts for $14.65. The system works.
Calculated Risk writes:
Just a note: There is a huge difference between cars and houses. Housing stock is durable and can last 50 years, 100 years (if maintained a little) and even more.
Cars for the most part need to be replaced regularly, and the current turnover rate is close to 25 years. Even if there are too many cars right now - in an earlier post I estimated a decline in the car / driver ratio back to the early '80s - cars will not last on average 20 years (or even close).
Best to all.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 02.17.09 - 8:17 pm |"
Cars don't need to be replaced as often because unemployed car owners don't drive as much as they use to.
CR EDIT: Not Nemo. Banning coming ... if this doesn't stop. CR
10-year yield dips a few bps and Jas comes out of the woodwork.
Too predictable.
Yep,just like me being first!!
Edited By Siteowner
Counterpointer writes:
Thaksin - there is no such place as GUINDONG, unless Paltrow has bought one and sought naming rights.
I know..it was a joke...
I dont think there is car brand witht the name JIMMY too ?
"Evildoer Greenspan is dispensing KOOL-AID on CNBC-World."
That wrinkled up old bastard need to be jacked off with a handful of cockle burs.
Jeep Grand Cherokees for $16,999. That's 48% off of MSRP for a 2009
Mike in Long Island | 02.17.09 - 8:47 pm | #
Still 52% too high for that make and model, in my experience.
CR is basing this on the rubber band of pent-up demand and betting it will bounce back, which is incredibly naive on his part, very unusual BAD analysis for him.
CR, as your blog says, ports all over the world are overflowing with new cars in inventory, in the pipeline. There's another whole pipeline of used cars coming off leases. There's a glut of cars to move through the pipeline, maybe as much as 2-3 years worth. So, will there be rising sales? Yes. But will they help GM and other manufacturers rev up production in the next year or two? No.
What's weird about it is that CR, better than anyone, saw the same inventory build-up problem and its aftermath coming in housing.
New Thread: Overcapacity Everywhere ( 1 comments
)
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CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.":
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Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing."
query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. "
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ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
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There was NEVER a Federal budget surplus under Clinton. Not a single year. The Debt for Jan, 20, 1993 from
the Treasury itself -
Government - Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
01/20/1993\tNot Available\tNot Available\t4,188,092,107,183.60
The Debt for Jan, 19, 2000.
1/19/2000\tNot Available\tNot Available\t5,727,150,582,479.46
What part of $1.6 trillion INCREASE do you not understand?
I was shrieking my head off about this in the early nineties while apparently you zoned out on pot or television.
And, in point of fact since you WERE NOT PAYING ATTENTION DURING THE SHILL GAME,
Clinton is also largely responsible for refinancing out of long-term bonds and into short-term treasuries to create the ILLUSION of a smaller deficit, as well as forward-shifting several hundred billion dollars in Jan, 2000 into the next year's budget.
Clinton turned your gov't into an gigantic Option ARM.
And now we are here, as I KNEW we would be, with me having to listen to your incredible ignorance about a problem that could have been prevented.
.
anon-
"handful of cockle burs"
2 Funny
I wonder how many folks know what cockle burs are?
I thought you guys pulled that "Italian Job" escape shit on the local talent.
scone | 02.17.09 - 9:09 pm | #
LOL it was for real.... Italians don't just flash well....
Fiat Abarth 600 pocket rocket history:
http://www.geocities.com/nikolic_lj_dragan/Racing/Fiat600Abarth/AbarthHistory.htm
--
"My wife says you can all go to hell.....our worlds just rotate on different axis.."
Fudgejuicyairy Doodie,
I am told by reliable sources that there is a CR blog in hell and none in heaven. Take your pick when you are ready for the journey.
Jas