It may be necessary to temporarily nationalize some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan told the Financial Times. I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.
So CNBC this morning actually plays out to commercial with Iron Maiden, "Run to the Hills ..." while they show a clip of the old prospector from Treasure of the Sierra Madres dancing on a gold mine.
Yikes. But actually very funny. In a dark sort of way.
Also the significant decline in capacity utilization suggests less investment in non-residential structures for some time.
Which means more job losses, which means less production, which means lower wages for those working, which means less consumption/demand, which means less production, which means lower wages, which means less consumption....
so much for the 'science' of economics.
Comrade Tiberius | 02.18.09 - 9:46 am |
As someone with a graduate degree in Economics, I say good riddence to the idea that it is in any way a science. It's black magic, plain and simple, and the sooner everyone realizes this the better. The entire discipline is so mucked up in ideological arguments that it is completely inept at providing useful real-world advice right now.
I consider this to be a necessary purge that should hopefully make the study of our economy a little more respectable in the future.
OT: I used the word Depression with a client this morning, and it rolled off my tongue very naturally, and without hesitation, as in previous conversations, and the client didn't flinch or freak out...wow
Replace Geithner with John Cummutta!
Tom Stone | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 9:50 am | #
Replace Geithner with Brazilian football cheerleaders and Chipendale dancers. It's not like it would destroy the credibility of the policy-making process any further and at least it would make the press conferences more visually appealing for everyone.
OT: I used the word Depression with a client this morning, and it rolled off my tongue very naturally, and without hesitation, as in previous conversations, and the client didn't flinch or freak out...wow \t Sam.2 | \t \t \t \t02.18.09 - 9:51 am | # De-de-de-de-de-de-de-dep-dep--de-pe-depe-depe-pepepe-pe-pepo-nono-nono-nono-de-nono-deno-node-nono-depe-node-nope-nope-node-nepe-pepe-pepe-de-de-de-DEPRESSION! Greater DEPRESSION! Now there!
I am sitting a secretarys desk. She has a calendar on her cube wall. This month has this saying "I just consolidated all those pesky monthly bills into one crippling debt."
However, he wimped out on cramming down bondholders (note Martin Wolf and Nouriel Roubini, among others, have advocated that step, although Wolf did warn that it would need to be done with ample preparation for temporary disruption):
You would have to be very careful about imposing any loss on senior creditors of any bank taken under government control because it could impact the senior debt of all other banks, he said. This is a credit crisis and it is essential to preserve an anchor for the financing of the system. That anchor is the senior debt.
Greenspan is a consultant to Pimco, and Pimco has consistently bet that the Feds would be nice to banks (I am told by someone in a position to know that they own a lot of junior bank debt). So this statement may be de facto an admission by Greenspan that he sees nationalization as inevitable and is trying to shape what form it takes
Alan Greenspan Backs Bank Nationalization! He doesn't have to worry about ties with Wall St buddies anymore...his #1 worry is getting some from Andrea
km4 | 02.18.09 - 9:47 am |
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
yes, saw that CNBC clip of Sierra Madre... since Sept I've had a series of vid-mashups on YouTube that exploited that song in I believe in more clever ways...
did you hear that Paulson was going into the motion picture business? seems an obscure bank in SoCal got a nice slice of TARP money to finance a small slate of pictures: here's a peak at the new logo ... not exactly Dreamworks, but...
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
Meh, we're just waiting for something to inspire us. It might take a while, but when that finally happens you'll see clapping and cheering and drinking and backslapping like nothing the world has ever seen.
It's like we're entering the 4th quarter down 250 points. It's a long shot, but hopefully we'll get 12 touchdowns in a row and bring the fans back into the game.
I propose putting women in charge of everything, and just the good looking ones too. The rest could be conscripted into the military and local sanitation departments. I suggest the fashion world respond with a complete reversal of mode such that men are now to be projected as the softer side of humanity and therefore to be objectified. Men should always be seen in poor light, shimmering fabric and sheer goods with flattering footwear. Now that's a stimulus that will jump start a lot of sectors! Of course, we'll have to insist that women retain the reproductive thing, although men will take on the nurturing and care stuff. But we won't truly enjoy it.
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom. \t Anonymous | \t \t \t \t02.18.09 - 10:06 am | # Gordon Gekko 2009 (retired, living in Belize): Doom is even better than Greed!
volker the viking writes: I suggest the fashion world respond with a complete reversal of mode such that men are now to be projected as the softer side of humanity and therefore to be objectified.
Hey, man, there is just no way I'm gonna give up beer.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
New thread please - what time zone are you all in that you think it's after 10pm!?
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:13 am |
What are you talking about? Is your time stamp incorrect, or are you referring to the general directionless banter that's occurring.
Because if you really want to talk about the fact the DOW is down 70+ points and breaking new lows, combined with the terrible housing start numbers and horrid industrial numbers, we can do that. We aim to please, you know.
We're just trying to avoid it because it's not going to lead anywhere constructive.
I just think we've used up the little "bounce" we've had. Those CR graphs showing the last prolonged 89% decline showed a few glimmers of hope before hope was lost. Again, and again.
And I really think 401k/IRA money is being yanked from the market. Volatility should go up as the pool of money shrinks, but over a longer timeline the volatility should trend toward the darkside...I mean downside.
since Hanky Panky is now the moving picture biz I decided he needed a credit splash worthy of say Warner Brothers... for a facial likeness I lifted one of Francis Bacon's tortured souls, one I must say bears an uncanny resemblance... as the for the Warner shield I reached back a few years to something I thought might match his method and demeanor...
So I am catching up on what was posted last night. From the NY Times article "Bailout Likely to Focus on Most Afflicted Homeowners", they say that there are two groups:
1. People who cannot afford their mortgages and have fallen behind on their monthly payments. 2. People who can afford their mortgages and are underwater.
They want to help out the first group, but not the second, since helping out the second group is more expensive. Yet they get down to the bottom of the article and say
"If the economists from the Boston Fed are right â or even close to right â then the aggressive approach may cost something like $500 billion to prevent 500,000 foreclosures. Thatâs $1 million per prevented foreclosure. Is that really worth it? Or could the money be better spent in other ways?"
Holy Cow! You can prevent more than 500,000 foreclosures with $500 billion! Does anybody (writers, editors, economists, politicians, used car sales men, ...) apply a sanity check to these numbers?
And I really think 401k/IRA money is being yanked from the market. Volatility should go up as the pool of money shrinks, but over a longer timeline the volatility should trend toward the darkside...I mean downside.
Here's something to think about CR: What's the sustainable level of auto sales from an income/available cash POV? How about from a real demand POV? I would suggest the level of sales over the last few years should not be looked at strictly from replacement POV as undoubtedly a huge number of purchases were discretionary and won't be replaced.
yay!
Well aren't you sunshine and rainbows this morning, CR.
Bleh, I need a stiff drink.
What is the crush depth?
re previous post, someone reported that Multi-Family starts were down 25%
It may be necessary to temporarily nationalize some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan told the Financial Times. I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.
From one of the main guys that fucked things up.
Looks like 1974 all over again.
Top hit songs: The Way we Were, babs and Seasons in the Sun by Terry Jacks.
o production, no consumption, no savings, no incomes,
but we've got debt, baby!
2009 Newspeak: debt is savings
today will turn into a rout, based on BO's last three ceremonious anouncement days:
Inauguration - down 332
Geithner Comprehensive plan - down 382
Stimulus Signing - down 297
Housing and foreclsure plan - _____?
just disscussed and cussed on CNBC: High total debt people can get help from housing bill (over 55%) if they agree to some sort of counseling.
Sort of like when the abusive spouse agrees to anger management counseling? Or, a drunk goes into rehab?
is a debt counselor like a camp counselor?
So CNBC this morning actually plays out to commercial with Iron Maiden, "Run to the Hills ..." while they show a clip of the old prospector from Treasure of the Sierra Madres dancing on a gold mine.
Yikes. But actually very funny. In a dark sort of way.
I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.
a top economist said this?
so much for the 'science' of economics.
Alan Greenspan Backs Bank Nationalization! He doesn't have to worry about ties with Wall St buddies anymore...his #1 worry is getting some from Andrea
Also the significant decline in capacity utilization suggests less investment in non-residential structures for some time.
Which means more job losses, which means less production, which means lower wages for those working, which means less consumption/demand, which means less production, which means lower wages, which means less consumption....
Alan and Andrea, sitting in a tree
ewwwwwwwwwww
Sam.2 writes:
today will turn into a rout,
After Obama speaks we'll get another program fix from Treasury the RALPH
his #1 worry is getting some from Andrea
km4 | 02.18.09 - 9:47 am | #
That's a picture that didn't need to be painted.
My head hurts from all of this cliff diving..
Still not quite ready to use the "D" word yet, CR?
a top economist said this?
so much for the 'science' of economics.
Comrade Tiberius | 02.18.09 - 9:46 am |
As someone with a graduate degree in Economics, I say good riddence to the idea that it is in any way a science. It's black magic, plain and simple, and the sooner everyone realizes this the better. The entire discipline is so mucked up in ideological arguments that it is completely inept at providing useful real-world advice right now.
I consider this to be a necessary purge that should hopefully make the study of our economy a little more respectable in the future.
Replace Geithner with John Cummutta!
OT: I used the word Depression with a client this morning, and it rolled off my tongue very naturally, and without hesitation, as in previous conversations, and the client didn't flinch or freak out...wow
I consider this to be a necessary purge that should hopefully make the study of our economy a little more respectable in the future.
## Just like putting a red dress on a hooker.
## Just like putting a red dress on a hooker.
don't forget the black net stockings, superhigh heels, and blonde wig.
and the cleavage, OMG, don't forget the cleavage.
Replace Geithner with John Cummutta!
Tom Stone | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 9:50 am | #
Replace Geithner with Brazilian football cheerleaders and Chipendale dancers. It's not like it would destroy the credibility of the policy-making process any further and at least it would make the press conferences more visually appealing for everyone.
Jim's a milk baby.
I'd prefer the Italian soccer team to Chipendale has-beens.
## Just like putting a red dress on a hooker.
don't forget the black net stockings, superhigh heels, and blonde wig.
and the cleavage, OMG, don't forget the cleavage.
JimPortlandOR | 02.18.09 - 9:53 am | #
No no no, you completely misunderstand me. I'm talking about firing all the hookers and training an entirely new generation.
CR - "...suggests less non-resindential investment..."
It also suggest significantly less ivnestment in capital equipment. You can check out my charts Gardnerweb.com - Document Not Found
No no no, you completely misunderstand me. I'm talking about firing all the hookers and training an entirely new generation.
VIRGINS!
OT: I used the word Depression with a client this morning, and it rolled off my tongue very naturally, and without hesitation, as in previous conversations, and the client didn't flinch or freak out...wow
\t Sam.2 | \t \t \t \t02.18.09 - 9:51 am | #
De-de-de-de-de-de-de-dep-dep--de-pe-depe-depe-pepepe-pe-pepo-nono-nono-nono-de-nono-deno-node-nono-depe-node-nope-nope-node-nepe-pepe-pepe-de-de-de-DEPRESSION! Greater DEPRESSION! Now there!
Yet another reason ProLogis is likely headed toward BK.
Wouldn't it be better to replace old grizzled hookers like Greenspan and Bernanke with young economists like this girl:
http://www.publicult.com/2008/07/17/116-sakshi-gulati-ram-gopal-verma%E2%80%99s-new-girl.html
Oh please... if economists are hookers, most of the investors here have been johns. You may not have paid for full service, but you still bought in.
I am sitting a secretarys desk. She has a calendar on her cube wall. This month has this saying "I just consolidated all those pesky monthly bills into one crippling debt."
Yves
However, he wimped out on cramming down bondholders (note Martin Wolf and Nouriel Roubini, among others, have advocated that step, although Wolf did warn that it would need to be done with ample preparation for temporary disruption):
You would have to be very careful about imposing any loss on senior creditors of any bank taken under government control because it could impact the senior debt of all other banks, he said. This is a credit crisis and it is essential to preserve an anchor for the financing of the system. That anchor is the senior debt.
Greenspan is a consultant to Pimco, and Pimco has consistently bet that the Feds would be nice to banks (I am told by someone in a position to know that they own a lot of junior bank debt). So this statement may be de facto an admission by Greenspan that he sees nationalization as inevitable and is trying to shape what form it takes
and that's how you've been "getting some."
where are we on the Hope Curve?
Hope Now or No Hope?
Prologis is toast. Bonds are yielding high teens.
Hope has been replaced with "nope"
The Hope Curve is backward-bending. If we lower taxes, hope will increase.
where are we on the Hope Curve?
As you asked, the DJ and S&P5 both turned RED.
Trust me, I worked it out on a cocktail napkin.
I propose replacing Geithner with this alumnus of the London School of Economics: Tara Sharma
Beautyful Girl: Beauty from Bollywood - Tara Sharma
In the red already? Man, that heroin sucked. Where's Timmy? He's got the good shit.
Does anyone want to buy "NoHopeNow.com" or "NoHopeNow.org"?
non-resindential investment.
steve | 02.18.09 - 9:56 am | #
There will be only two kinds of investment in the future: Hobo and non-hobodential.
ot much of a rally
NoHopeNow.gov is already taken.
Investors looking to scoop up some bargains after the previous session's selloff and shrugged off another dismal housing data point.
LOL
so now we're sacrificing virgins?
non-resindential investment.
steve | 02.18.09 - 9:56 am | #
There will be only two kinds of investment in the future: Hobo and non-hobodential.
Alan Greenspan Backs Bank Nationalization! He doesn't have to worry about ties with Wall St buddies anymore...his #1 worry is getting some from Andrea
km4 | 02.18.09 - 9:47 am |
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
You mean when Andrea goes down on...
But CNBC is the source of neverending boom. Balance!
Notice doom and boom have a family resemblance?
threetorches
yes, saw that CNBC clip of Sierra Madre... since Sept I've had a series of vid-mashups on YouTube that exploited that song in I believe in more clever ways...
did you hear that Paulson was going into the motion picture business? seems an obscure bank in SoCal got a nice slice of TARP money to finance a small slate of pictures: here's a peak at the new logo ... not exactly Dreamworks, but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfDRDKGnhWI
Sorry CA & NY, Obama's plan does not apply to jumbo loans.
"There will be only two kinds of investment in the future: Hobo and non-hobodential.
supafly73 "
Leisure Bando and Working Bando.
How about The Divine Comedy by Dante Alighieri
"Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Enter Here"
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
Meh, we're just waiting for something to inspire us. It might take a while, but when that finally happens you'll see clapping and cheering and drinking and backslapping like nothing the world has ever seen.
It's like we're entering the 4th quarter down 250 points. It's a long shot, but hopefully we'll get 12 touchdowns in a row and bring the fans back into the game.
You mean when Andrea goes down on...
km4
She's the spitting image of Underdog's woman.
YouTube - The Classic Underdog Cartoon Intro
I propose putting women in charge of everything, and just the good looking ones too. The rest could be conscripted into the military and local sanitation departments. I suggest the fashion world respond with a complete reversal of mode such that men are now to be projected as the softer side of humanity and therefore to be objectified. Men should always be seen in poor light, shimmering fabric and sheer goods with flattering footwear. Now that's a stimulus that will jump start a lot of sectors! Of course, we'll have to insist that women retain the reproductive thing, although men will take on the nurturing and care stuff. But we won't truly enjoy it.
industrial production fell 1.8 percent in January
auto's saar down like 40%, to a 10mm runrate, and ip is only down 1.8%.
have i missed a monster monthly decline in 2008?
VIRGINS!
volker the viking | 02.18.09 - 9:57 am | #
If you'd ever had one, you wouldn't be asking for one-
Mr. Market, meet Mr. Vicious Circle.
Oh, I see you've met before.
--bh
From Yahoo: The Obama administration's summary said the plan could offer a buffer of up to $6,000 against value declines on the average home.
Wow, that'll help.
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
\t Anonymous | \t \t \t \t02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
Gordon Gekko 2009 (retired, living in Belize): Doom is even better than Greed!
This blog has turned into a major doom site. Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
Call 'em like you see 'em, this blog has simply been the least distorted reflection of the macroeconomy available...period.
km4 writes:
Stomach-churning, wretched doom.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:06 am | #
You mean when Andrea goes down on...
km4 | 02.18.09 - 10:07 am |
Egads!
This could possibly send eastern Europe into pandemonium!
New thread please - what time zone are you all in that you think it's after 10pm!?
volker the viking writes: I suggest the fashion world respond with a complete reversal of mode such that men are now to be projected as the softer side of humanity and therefore to be objectified.
Hey, man, there is just no way I'm gonna give up beer.
Hey, man, there is just no way I'm gonna give up beer.
Popeye | 02.18.09 - 10:14 am | #
We can make soft beer. We'll just make the bottles pink instead of brown.
7500 we barely knew you!
Who opened the trap door ?
I might win the "when will the dow hit 6K" contest. I'd only be a week off if it hits this week..woohoo, do I get a pony!
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
New thread please - what time zone are you all in that you think it's after 10pm!?
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 10:13 am |
What are you talking about? Is your time stamp incorrect, or are you referring to the general directionless banter that's occurring.
Because if you really want to talk about the fact the DOW is down 70+ points and breaking new lows, combined with the terrible housing start numbers and horrid industrial numbers, we can do that. We aim to please, you know.
We're just trying to avoid it because it's not going to lead anywhere constructive.
Who opened the trap door ?
bearly | 02.18.09 - 10:16 am | #
Wow! That trajectory is ominous. PPT early today?
If you'd ever had one, you wouldn't be asking for one-
Thats what I was thinking
Right on cue, financeyahoo re-scales Dow chart to accommodate the 74-- handle.
Might need to do it again lads.
Interesting volume spike at 10:10 EST. Looks like the robotraders were expecting 75 handle support and went to get coffee...
C
Wow! That trajectory is ominous. PPT early today?
xxxxx
I just think we've used up the little "bounce" we've had. Those CR graphs showing the last prolonged 89% decline showed a few glimmers of hope before hope was lost. Again, and again.
And I really think 401k/IRA money is being yanked from the market. Volatility should go up as the pool of money shrinks, but over a longer timeline the volatility should trend toward the darkside...I mean downside.
--bh
Link to the new Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan
(at Financial Stability.gov)
Exec. Summary
Fact Sheet
Three Cases
Q & A
old meme: "a rising tide lifts all boats"
new meme: "a rising tsunami sinks all boats"
since Hanky Panky is now the moving picture biz I decided he needed a credit splash worthy of say Warner Brothers...
for a facial likeness I lifted one of Francis Bacon's tortured souls, one I must say bears an uncanny resemblance...
as the for the Warner shield I reached back a few years to something I thought might match his method and demeanor...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfDRDKGnhWI
So I am catching up on what was posted last night. From the NY Times article "Bailout Likely to Focus on Most Afflicted Homeowners", they say that there are two groups:
1. People who cannot afford their mortgages and have fallen behind on their monthly payments.
2. People who can afford their mortgages and are underwater.
They want to help out the first group, but not the second, since helping out the second group is more expensive. Yet they get down to the bottom of the article and say
"If the economists from the Boston Fed are right â or even close to right â then the aggressive approach may cost something like $500 billion to prevent 500,000 foreclosures. Thatâs $1 million per prevented foreclosure. Is that really worth it? Or could the money be better spent in other ways?"
Holy Cow! You can prevent more than 500,000 foreclosures with $500 billion! Does anybody (writers, editors, economists, politicians, used car sales men, ...) apply a sanity check to these numbers?
ooks like the robotraders were expecting 75 handle support and went to get coffee...
Counterpointer | 02.18.09 - 10:21 am | #
-----
They're back now.
Some even have coffee stains on their shirts where they dropped the java and ran back to their posts.
And I really think 401k/IRA money is being yanked from the market. Volatility should go up as the pool of money shrinks, but over a longer timeline the volatility should trend toward the darkside...I mean downside.
--bh
blackhat | 02.18.09 - 10:21 am | #
I'm glad I'm out. Thanks all at CR
Here's something to think about CR: What's the sustainable level of auto sales from an income/available cash POV? How about from a real demand POV? I would suggest the level of sales over the last few years should not be looked at strictly from replacement POV as undoubtedly a huge number of purchases were discretionary and won't be replaced.
Looking very closely at the capacity utilization chart, do I see an end to the recession projected right before the right-hand y-axis?