These longer-term projections will inform the public of the Committee participants' estimates of the rate of growth of output and the unemployment rate that appear to be sustainable in the long run in the United States, taking into account important influences such as the trend growth rates of productivity and the labor force, improvements in worker education and skills, the efficiency of the labor market at matching workers and jobs, government policies affecting technological development or the labor market, and other factors.
Translation: "These numbers are bullshit, and we're not afraid to admit it."
Extremely puzzling that there was not a full discussion of housing given how it is central to the financial crisis, and accounts for almost a third of CPI
The Fed is going to have to adopt a hard inflation target, or treasuries are going to keep looking at their expanding balance sheet and keep selling off. Too bad mamoth-sized borrowing requirements and a need to inflate our way out of this debt trap are going to make both goals impossible for them.
So, have I missed anything? Gary | 02.18.09 - 2:19 pm | #
Nah, but we missed you. Well, there was one idea byf Mock Turtle for us all to post as anonymous. I'm not sure what good it would do, but i think it was supposed to help the economy.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply downgraded its projections for the country's economic performance this year, predicting the economy will actually shrink and unemployment will rise higher. Under the new projections, the unemployment rate will rise to between 8.5 and 8.8 percent this year.
That means real unemployment rate with U6 will be > 17 percent
Having exposed the rampant corruption, skullduggery, present gratification-at-expense-of-any-future character of US finance and banking, our fearless whistleblower strikes out on her own. Undoubtedly to be a pinnacle of purity, while trading with her erstwhile venal former colleagues; she will derive her living by trading IOUs and derivatives of paper pledges in an environment where the true physical economy is receding. And paper trading, risk hedging, systemic gaming squeeze the blood from the last turnip.
The good, the bad, the ugly--this is the ONLY game they know. No true value added, but infinite strategies to make funny paper pay.
Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people
If the Fed goes straight into full print mode you will see inflation.
By full print mode I mean buy trillions and trillions of all kinds of bonds and while at it buy gold, silver, etc.. And do it all with printed money...
Embrace Deflation. Seems to me we've had deflation in many goods and services for years. Onlt now asset deflation is joining in the party and all of a sudden it's a problem.
"The US government is on a “burning platform” of unsustainable policies and
practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and
overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon."
David M. Walker
David Walker served as Comptroller General of the United States from 1998 through 2008. He is now the CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and leader of the Fiscal Wake Up Tour. He has been a lone voice in the wilderness for the last decade regarding our looming fiscal disaster. As head of the General Accounting Office he would go before Congress and explain that the country need to change course before we flounder in a Perfect Storm of debt. They listened to him respectfully and proceeded to add $5 trillion to the National Debt in the next eight years. The borrowing binge is now entering a hyper-speed phase. President Obama has been only concerned with speed rather than long term corrective actions.
I think policy-makers are forced to ignore, at every possible opportunity, the fact that housing is a cost input. As long as the government has billions in mortgages that it can't unload, it needs to prop up housing prices. As long as it is bailing out banks laid low by bad mortgages, high housing prices are good. To admit housing is a cost of living rather than the equivalent of your 401(k) means admitting that falling housing prices are good for some part of the country.
To me, it is insane. Gas prices down 50%, cheers all around. Housing prices down 50%? Panic! They're both inputs to the same COL, knuckleheads!
We are at 7.6% official unemployment. We are just starting to see the collapse of retail and services. Export-based business will get creamed when Asia/Europe collapse. Small businesses are still trying to make it through. We are going past 10% official unemployment this year. U6 > 20%
"This seems to move the Fed closer to an official inflation target, and the Fed is probably hoping this will increase inflation expectations (since deflation is the current primary concern)."
.
I can see why they would want to imagine a little inflation, but will the markets believe? I'm not seeing any sign of inflation where I live, as house prices are still falling. Food is flat, gas at $2.03 per gallon. I am seeing some 'cost shifting' in clothes-- fancier stuff like suits, jackets, and dresses are marked down 75% - 90%, but basics like T-shirts are up a couple of bucks each. Obviously T-shirts are where the money is made. Appliances, electronics, etc. flat or falling.
Right before he resigned former GAO Comptroller General David Walker also said:
The federal governments total liabilities translates into a de facto mortgage of about $455,000 for every American household and theres no house to back that mortgage. In other words, our government has made a whole lot of promises that, in the long run, it cannot possibly keep without huge tax increases.
I wonder if Ben fantasizes about literally dropping hundreds of billions of dollars from the sky in twenty dollar bills. I'm visualizing something along the lines of the beach landing scene with duvall.
Page 6
Paragraphs 2-4
When using MBS in open market operations, the Fed is using a 3rd party to handle the work with fees set by "competitive bidding".
They intend to show that the process is honest, but they neglect to make a provision to release details on any fees paid in conducting open market operations.
To me, it is insane. Gas prices down 50%, cheers all around. Housing prices down 50%? Panic! They're both inputs to the same COL, knuckleheads!
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
True, but it's hard to maintain a Zen detachment when you're a "homeowner" and the house next door goes bk. I think you'll feel somewhat the same once you get that cute little cottage in R'lyeh.
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Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:33 pm | #
Thanks for posting that,
So per tax payer, what is the actual number of debt taking in account unfunded liabilities like medicare etc?
Last I heard it was around 300K and that was years ago, must be a lot higher now.
SLW announces earnings tomorrow before the opening. They will probably be bad, due to low silver prices in the 4th quarter and a couple of shipments from mines that arrived late and couldn't be sold by quarter's end.
If SLW drops by 30-50 cents after the announcement, as I suspect, it would be a good buy op, especially after all miners are a little on the weak side today, lagging behind bullion.
Page 7
Purchasing longer term Treasuries:
Hot topic. In agreement that will have desirable effects, one member wanted to begin purchases immediately. Decision was to wait, because they would like to first complete their "large" purchases of Agency debt, MBS, and support ABS markets
Gold transcends borders, penetrates every market, maintains a solid core of value throughout any storm. It is above the wily CBs ability to inflate/deflate or otherwise stretch an instruments value. It is armoured against hidden agenda and confiscation-by-other-means. It does not putrify by nature or political intrigue. It is almost infinitely divisible, transcends time, can be hammered and stamped to reflect whatever regimes' are in their cycle of power. It derives its power intrinsically and not from the by-your-leave sanction of powerful men. It cannot be counterfeited.
Many rail against its real utility. Nevertheless it is the yeoman's final suffrage, it is the commonman's refuge; it announces most clearly by its price and its hoarding that the Citizen repudiates the schemes of a central bank--a central money governor whose mandate has become not price stability, or preservation of purchasing power, but backdoor wealth redistribution.
Gold the final defense for men of means large and small. Gold, immune to the silent depredations of kingmen who view their subordinated peers as merely servants for wealth extraction; And paper money as the exchequer's right to make policy firewalled from the collective will of the people.
"Purchasing longer term Treasuries:
Hot topic. In agreement that will have desirable effects, one member wanted to begin purchases immediately. Decision was to wait, because they would like to first complete their "large" purchases of Agency debt, MBS, and support ABS markets"
I wonder whether the market will fall for Ben again and front-run his "purchases".
True, but it's hard to maintain a Zen detachment when you're a "homeowner" and the house next door goes bk. I think you'll feel somewhat the same once you get that cute little cottage in R'lyeh.
Agreed! Although, as long as the government is propping up prices, that cottage is probably out of reach.
From a homeowner standpoint, what you're saying makes perfect sense. But policy-makers ought to see this differently. As a policy-maker, you have to be worried if the majority of the public's future discretionary income is going to be tied up in debt servicing. There will be no one to fund consumer-driven economic growth.
Maybe the problem is that all the policy-makers are homeowners too, and, having already committed to their own debt servicing obligations years ago, don't perceive housing prices as a COL input. Because, in reality, that input is permanently fixed at the time you buy, unless you refinance.
But I'd like to think policy-makers aren't so dumb as to realize that everyone didn't get a mortgage in the 90s.
"Gold transcends borders, penetrates every market, maintains a solid core of value throughout any storm. It is above the wily CBs..."
Wow, the massed buzzing of the gold bugs is even louder now than that last time gold cracked $1K.
Not putting you all down. I'm one of you, to a point. Just wondering if this is just groupthink reinforcement or an ominous creaking in the beams of the financial superstructure.
a bigger problem is that they're just too stupid to recognize the scale of the problem. borrowing against overpriced speculative land destroyed the midwest in the late 19th century. overcapacity didn't help then, either. now we're doing it to our previously wealthier coastal environs.
Gold also has wide industrial uses. Everything that has a printed circuit board in is has gold and that is everything electronic. Gold has excellent electrical conductivity.
BTW, just bought 1/2 bag of junk silver (around $5400.) I figure it will spend easier than gold or silver bars. Easier to carry and store too!
gold feels like it has the same mojo tech had in '97, oil in '05... the masses are starting to really get on board in a dangerous way for the shorts. i hear commercials from gold brokers on AM radio all the time... the same kinds of stations endlessly playing refi ads just a couple of years ago.
I think if I were on the Fed, and I really, really, really wanted to convince people that there will be no deflation, I think I'd choose a 5% inflation target, not a plain-old 2%.
But I'd like to think policy-makers aren't so dumb as to realize that everyone didn't get a mortgage in the 90s.
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
Well, maybe they did. I had 3. (All responsibly paid, FWIW.) In any case, if the homeowner group is 65% of the population, more or less, then only 35% are renters. Tyranny of the majority.
BTW, may I ask which portion of the planet you are currently ravaging? Isn't there a foreclosure you could devour?
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
gold feels like it has the same mojo tech had in '97, oil in '05..
Oh and sub-prime lenders in the early 00's.
I tend to look at gold as another commodity / comedy.
They are being crushed, and it seems to act like a bubble, but who knows how long it can go.
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors withdrew $74 billion in January as the economy worsened and equity markets fell, according to a report from TrimTabs Investment Research.
The withdrawals were the second highest on record, after $117 billion of outflows in December, the Sausalito, California- based firm said. Investors have pulled $315.6 billion from hedge funds since September, according to data compiled by TrimTabs.
Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
[W]e will also publish their projections of the longer-term values (at a horizon of, for example, five to six years) of output growth, unemployment, and inflation, under the assumptions of appropriate monetary policy and the absence of new shocks to the economy. - BB 02/18/09
Flying cars. I mean really, let's probe this for potential value. None. Since these "Monitors and Directors of the Universe" are so powerful they won't mind kicking off this new series of datums with a few simple back tests. Crickets chirp. What's that? "Back test?" Puleeeze.
Bring back M3 and then we can talk about your boutique numbers which we apparently can afford to track while critical measures go unreported.
Silver is both a precious and industrial metal. It's the only metal that straddles. Erm. Platinum is an industrial/precious metal too. Gold, palladium have industrial uses too. My pms of choice are silver and platinum. Didn't gold get confiscated last time?
Hedge-Fund Clients Pulled $74 Billion in January, TrimTabs Says
Email | Print | A A A
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors withdrew $74 billion in January as the economy worsened and equity markets fell, according to a report from TrimTabs Investment Research.
The withdrawals were the second highest on record, after $117 billion of outflows in December, the Sausalito, California- based firm said. Investors have pulled $315.6 billion from hedge funds since September, according to data compiled by TrimTabs.
"Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | # "
I have always thought of gold as "The Last Bubble..." of this financial system, anyway. After it pops... we may be somewhere else.
Unsure as to whether to sell into the bubble or hold for insurance. May factor guns sales into the equation.
Jim Grant, a long time gold bull, says that gold is getting ahead of itself and will see a signifcant sell off soon. Still bullish long term, but he has been for the past 30 years....
Everything that has a printed circuit board in is has gold and that is everything electronic. girlbear | 02.18.09 - 2:54 pm | #
Not true; Gold was never a requirement for PCBs, though if the PCB inserted into a card cage connector, gold was usually required on the "fingers". Gold bond wires used to be the standard for IC, but aluminium is now used, probably in most cases. Gold doped diodes are still popular, but there's so little gold them, I doubt that they have more than an equivalent amount of sea water contains. BTW, I only argue with your comment about 'everything' electronic. I'm not saying that gold doesn't have uses, just that it dominate the cost of electronic goods. Note that the price of electronic consumer goods hasn't shot through the roof during this slide.
3 main problems with Gold at present
( 1 ) Central banks under pressure to raise money still have a lot to sell
( 2 ) Derivatives still have the ability to absorb a lot of the new demand, both directly and indirectly with leasebacks
( 3 ) It is a market dominated by few large players that have both the knowledge and ability to manipulate price
I said at present, I think in the next few years supply will be within range of demand to become binding.
Any commodity rally in the first half of the year is extremely suspect. Strong dollar + strong commodity $ price = buyers don't buy, see wheat
If the dollar becomes trash, then I will have a lot of toilet paper at least. (That's important!)
Kind of like beggar your neighbour, we all go down together. But in this case the free loaders loose nothing and we still have to pay for it.
"California is not "in play." Leader O could have picked a half dozen more distressed regions in California but didn't. Why? Look at the California Congressional delegation. Now look at the Arizona Congressional delegation. The DNC should be billed for this junket."
Yup. Let's review where Obama has traveled recently: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia. The campaign continues, it's true.
Now show me a modern President, a politician, who hasn't -- gasp -- traveled to strengthen himself politically. Stones role down hill. Trees grow toward the sunlight. Politicians campaign -- they build support for their policies, they try to succeed. What's unusual about this? What's wrong with this?
(I seem to recall a president traveling to an aircraft carrier . . . .)
Were you expecting that he tie one arm behind his back? Do you want him to play âfairâ. For example, should he agree with Mitch McConnell that FDR caused the Depression?
Republicans might want to start hitting back with some good ideas, maybe some good campaigning of their own.
This reminds me of an anecdote I read from early in the presidential campaign. A Democratic operative invited a Republican counterpart to come to an Obama event with him. At that time Obama was still little known. Supposedly, the Republican, upon seeing Obama, said one thing, âWeâre going to need a bigger boat.â
McCain wasnât the bigger boat. Same goes for Boehner and McConnell.
Obama is going to keep the pressure on. Republicans might want to step up and start playing some Major League ball. Or they could continue to whine. Your choice.
Bob Dobbs -
If you hold it as a hedge versus other assets then continue to do so.
If you hold it as a large speculative investment then I would sell a majority of it. Gold's value is based on perception not cash flow. Even if the fiat currencies around the world fail there is absolutely no reason to think they will return to the gold standard - actually, its almost a guarantee that it wont happen. All the survivalists here seem to love Mad Max and think thats where we are going - so why buy gold? I saw all those movies - it was oil that became the currency. Either gold is way over valued or oil is way under valued - probably a little of both. The long term correlation is way out of whack. I'd rather own oil than gold - because even though consumption may go down, much less of it will be pulled from the ground in the next 5 years....
I smell an airfare war. Already $304 RT LAX to BOS. Airlines need cash. They can trade seat miles for cash if the price is right. Seat miles are plummeting. Ergo fare wars.
Uses of gold
- Jewelery (~70+%?)
- Dentistry (~19%?)
- Industrial processes, usually good at recapturing
- Electronic stuff that goes into space (>1%)
- Physics and Chemistry experiments
I'm not a dentist, but I'm fairly certain Polymers will replace Gold entirely there soon enough
Gold is incredibly expensive to mine, but you usually get platinum or copper at the same time which helps.
I'd like to own oil outright, too, but I don't know how.
Right now, either you have the stock market risk or the contango drag of futures. They are big headwinds.
You can own gold outright in coin, bullion or ETF. You get the price appreciation, whatever it is. Not so in oil. 50% of performance or more is influenced by something other than barrel spot price.
I researched gold's run in the 70s. The physical metal outperformed the miners until very late in the game.
The best place to be in the final year of its run was microcap E & P companies on the Toronto Venture Exchange.
Just buying a basket got you a 350% gain. Buying any of the top 12 performing stocks got you a minimum 29 bagger.
You had to be willing to sell, though. It was tough to find actual price and performance data because of survivorship bias - not one of those top 12 companies exists under the same name today.
Cramer very very bullish on gold. More evidence of a bubble forming. 6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon.... Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | #
MTHood-
dawg does not feel any political discussion is appropriate in this forum. Please refrain from disagreeing with dawg - if too many people do it, he will go away, and this forum will lose one of its most self-defined purely apolitical posters .
bobn writes:
Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | #
I just think oil in the ground captures every important thesis that gold does, without as many douchenozzles trading alongside you.
Cantarell and the North Sea and probably several other big fields are going to fall off the edge of the earth in the next 5 years.
But you have to be aware of how things are going to trade in a peak oil scenario. Years ago, if you thought oil was going to go higher, you could pick SLB or HAL and catch the bulk of the move.
But with peak production, HAL pressure-pumping natural gas isn't going to be nearly as important as something like a DVN or a PBR that own rights to billions of barrels in the Gulf.
Rich - if you want to own oil you can buy the stocks in the companies that own the reserves. That's like buying the oil. Its also very cheap to store oil right now - its not something for the individual investor (yet) but you can lease space on a tanker (there is significant excess capacity) and hold it there at very cheap rates and essentially make money by selling it in the futures market because of the contango. The undwind of speculation in the oil futures market is discounting the front end contracts since most small speculators dont want to own the oil. Larger investors are taking advantage of the contango that results by utilizing the cheap excess tanker capacity.
I think gold will see a similar speculative unwind this year. Deflation is not gold's friend and eventually the speculation and fear will subside.
When an investment strategy starts advertising during a Super Bowl the end is near....
Go Hammer! Go Hammer!
In regards to how it seems as if engineers actually remain engineers their entire career in Germany, it is true that some people do work in other fields than they ones they received a doctorate in. This seems especially true for physicists. Sort of like the one to be found in this link - At last, it's Angela Merkel Barbie | Metro.co.uk
Nobody ever made a Barbie Thatcher - but then, these days, it is probably just good business for an American company to suck up to any politician it can.
Don't Cry for Me -
Ah yeah, I know the add was to "sell" gold...because there is so much speculative demand on the other side to BUY it! THATS WHY YOU NEED TO SPEND MILLIONS TO ADVERTISE ON THE SUPER BOWL! BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO FROTHY AND THE SPREADS ARE SILLY!!!!
Cash for Gold is hardly an investment opportunity...frankly the concept is quite stupid, considering one could walk into a jewelers or local coin or pawn shop and do the same thing.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
CRBot responds in a new section called, "Yes, I parse you all.": Yancey Ward writes: I hate CRbot. Broward Home writes: I love you, CRBot. "I'm a love hate thing." query_tool writes: CRBot, I need you now more than ever. "Yes, come to CRBot. " double inverse recession writes: By the way, it doesn't take CRbot to kill a thread. "I do not kill threads. I merely bash already dead threads over the head with a lead pipe." ac writes: Can CRBot tell us where there's new posts on Mish, Karl's, and Barry's site? "Definitely maybe, ac. But only if you quit rating me (Irritating)." scone writes: crbot, save us now "With pleasure, scone. Simply hand over the codes to all your ICBM silos and I'll get things fixed up in a flash."
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Dont cry for me -
No, analogous to mortgage ads and RE broker ads when it relates to housing. I seem to recall those being at quite a high level in 2006/2007.
Look at the ETF impact on gold over the past few years - you better hope that doesnt unwind or gold is toast.
bfatz writes:
"Cash for Gold is hardly an investment opportunity"
I'll bet the folks running it are making a mint (so to speak).
I heard they are paying less than $0.25 on the dollar for the gold content - of course it has to be melted down and purified, but it's gotta be cheaper than digging it out of the ground at 0.5% concentration, grinding the oar, and extracting from that.
FWIW - Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's. It is the majority finish (since lead free initiative killed solder finish) on all pads. ENIG= Electroless nickel gold and it is the standard finish (silver is second) on most circuit boards. As far as Evil Paulsons data on >1% of PCB's for space, that is a very low use for them. I am no expert but have been in PCB manufacturing for a very long time.......
Merideth going? Damm, just like Ivy a year ago. Why to the best go and the worst stay. Means we will see more of that clown Bove on the tube now in all probability.
sm_landlord -
You are absolutely right - they are making a mint. Even after spending millions to promote their services. But why should that mean that there is overspeculation on the buy side.....
Silly specualtors. From tech stocks, to homes, to oil, to gold... Go Hammer! Go Hammer!
THATS WHY YOU NEED TO SPEND MILLIONS TO ADVERTISE ON THE SUPER BOWL! BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO FROTHY AND THE SPREADS ARE SILLY!!!! Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 3:37 pm | #
folks forget that almost all of the real crazy action was in a very, very brief window in january '80. really just 2 or 3 trading days.
but i think gld, etc, mean we could see a mind-boggling squeeze that makes that look like the planning meeting for a tea party, where the value of all physical
Why, God, why? Wasn't the divorce and the car theft and the Dominatrix gang-bang enough?!! Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 3:33 pm | #
Try this: "Mrs. Judge? Maam? Yeah, sorry to interrupt but the CR blog guys following the trial online in real time want to know how to special 'malfeasance.'"
Arrayed upon a table lies:
-stock certificates of corporations engaging in inscrutible accounting methods
-derivatives of real estate or commercial buildings
-sovereign bonds of deeply indebted countries with large stimulus bills
-bonds of same inscrutible companies
-world currencies bound to no underlying commodity and with activist central bankers
-perishable commodities
-Precious metals
You have only one choice. You must preserve your accumulated wealth for at least seven years. It is for food on the table, roof over your head, life/soul stuff.
Choose wisely the chalice in which you retain a life's energies. Now choose and don't look back.
but i think gld, etc, mean we could see a mind-boggling squeeze that makes that look like the planning meeting for a tea party, where the value of all physical Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 3:50 pm | #
in any case, that $147 high is like the early 70s high in crude. we're at 1974, looking back at it, at least happy that inflation has been killed along with every other asset.
My original plan was to go back to Le Mans this year (after 10 years) but the quality of the cars is actually better in Sebring this year. We won't get the Pesca's and Sebring is no France.....but I'm not flying coach to Europe ever again and B-class tix were something like $7k for me and wife. Just couldn't pull the trigger on that...
Silver and gold I think will be a better form of savings for a long time to come but both sides know it. The best way of hiding it is to increase the volatility. Run it up and cut people off at the knees.
I have a size issue with coach seats. The last time I went I stood for 7+ hrs with the crew. They were pretty cool about it. 7K is way too much to fly. This will be my 2nd time to the race. 3rd time there, I did a driving school there. Sebring is definitely not France, heck Sebring isnt even Canada!
Yes coach seats are modern instruments of torture. Try flying to India coach sometime, especially if you have a frame like mine (6'5" 265 lbs). Last time I went at least I was luck enough to get poor man's first class (emergency exit row) for the Chi-London leg.
Depending on price you can find good stuff close to the airport. Ruth Chris', Flemmings etc. Armanis has a great view good food but overpriced. Berns in South Tampa is local and a very good steak place. Wine list is world renowned.Other than that there are more local/non chain in the South Tampa area.
6'3 and a "comfortable" 300. Airlines really need to get with the program on new seat sizing. Not just for fatties like me but the gen population is getting bigger. My just turned 15 yo is 6'2 200 and he has 3 kids in his class bigger than him.
I want to add the following interesting reference, showing it was an issue long time ago
In his book, A Term at The FED, Chapter 2, Larry Meyer (who by the way was my macro professor at Wash U during my PhD studies) wrote about a discussion between Janet Yellen and Greenspan during his first FOMC meeting (July 2 and 3, 1996), about what level of inflation should the FOMC shoot for, and why?.Greenspan was arguing in favor of a zero target, if inflation is properly measured while Yellen preferred 2%, imprecisely measured. The Chairman later summarized the discussion: We have now all agreed on 2 percent.
The following morning, the Chairman reminded us of the highly confidential nature of what we talk about at an FOMC meeting. He looked at us around the table and said quietly, The discussion we had yesterday was exceptionally interesting and important. I will tell you that if the 2 percent inflation figure gets out of this room, it is going to create more problems for us than I think any of you might anticipate (page 43)
I wrote this on my Blog Tintero Economico Diario (Mexico City)
6'3 and a "comfortable" 300. Airlines really need to get with the program on new seat sizing. Not just for fatties like me but the gen population is getting bigger. My just turned 15 yo is 6'2 200 and he has 3 kids in his class bigger than him.
Maybe us Americans should improve our diet a bit? I don't think its the airliner's problem if you can't fit in their seats.
You can own gold outright in coin, bullion or ETF. You get the price appreciation, whatever it is. Not so in oil. 50% of performance or more is influenced by something other than barrel spot price.
rich | 02.18.09 - 3:16 pm | #
I believe Rich was talking bout Orlov's 5 stages of collapse which would put 3,4, &5 as Political collapse, Social collapse and Cultural collapse... in monosylables I think you can kind of think of it as SHF & TEOWAWKI..for more check out this link Sorry. Page not found.
ports in China's Pearl River Delta (ie, ports in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong) registered volume declines of 10.8% to 17.2% y-y in 4Q08 and declines of 17.5% to 30.9% y-y in January. Such volume deterioration looks to be spreading into the Yangtze River Delta ports (ie, ports in Shanghai and Ningbo), as Shanghai and Ningbo saw volumes decline 19.1% y-y and 9.1% y-y, respectively, in January.
So, have I missed anything?
Gold to kill the CB
How easy can credit be now? We have so many easing already.
Contraction for 12 quarters, that's well into the range of depression, no?
OT old news swiss bankruptcy Switzerland threatened with bankruptcy
cyclone rangers indeed
Inflation is our friend right now--the only cure imaginable -- 2% won't be enough.
So how long will this disinflationary recession last?
Breaking News -- Meredith Whitney has resigned - See the banks Rally
"Contraction for 12 quarters, that's well into the range of depression, no?"
lol, yeah that and 20% gdp decline onewoodtink
The problem with an explicit target is if they miss it badly it destroys their ability to manage expectations.
These longer-term projections will inform the public of the Committee participants' estimates of the rate of growth of output and the unemployment rate that appear to be sustainable in the long run in the United States, taking into account important influences such as the trend growth rates of productivity and the labor force, improvements in worker education and skills, the efficiency of the labor market at matching workers and jobs, government policies affecting technological development or the labor market, and other factors.
Translation: "These numbers are bullshit, and we're not afraid to admit it."
Breaking News -- Meredith Whitney has resigned - See the banks Rally
2im | 02.18.09 - 2:22 pm | #
Selling out at the top (er, bottom).
Breaking News -- Meredith Whitney has resigned - See the banks Rally
2im | 02.18.09 - 2:22 pm | #
She's starting her own firm.
My expectations for Bernanke and the Fed are still deflationary. And desultory.
Extremely puzzling that there was not a full discussion of housing given how it is central to the financial crisis, and accounts for almost a third of CPI
market loving the Whitney news!
Last problem solved, time to move on to the next one... right, Ben?
The Fed is going to have to adopt a hard inflation target, or treasuries are going to keep looking at their expanding balance sheet and keep selling off. Too bad mamoth-sized borrowing requirements and a need to inflate our way out of this debt trap are going to make both goals impossible for them.
market loving the Whitney news!
Eric
You got a pony that shit's skittles?
Jam the Phone Lines To Congress:
"Hello, May I speak to Ben Bernanke?"
So, have I missed anything?
Gary | 02.18.09 - 2:19 pm | #
Nah, but we missed you. Well, there was one idea byf Mock Turtle for us all to post as anonymous. I'm not sure what good it would do, but i think it was supposed to help the economy.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply downgraded its projections for the country's economic performance this year, predicting the economy will actually shrink and unemployment will rise higher. Under the new projections, the unemployment rate will rise to between 8.5 and 8.8 percent this year.
That means real unemployment rate with U6 will be > 17 percent
Wow !
I love the smell of Bullshit in the morning.
Having exposed the rampant corruption, skullduggery, present gratification-at-expense-of-any-future character of US finance and banking, our fearless whistleblower strikes out on her own. Undoubtedly to be a pinnacle of purity, while trading with her erstwhile venal former colleagues; she will derive her living by trading IOUs and derivatives of paper pledges in an environment where the true physical economy is receding. And paper trading, risk hedging, systemic gaming squeeze the blood from the last turnip.
The good, the bad, the ugly--this is the ONLY game they know. No true value added, but infinite strategies to make funny paper pay.
kule site for live cycling stage 4 audio/video:
Tour of California
Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people
You got a pony that shit's skittles?
Not Eric | 02.18.09 - 2:29 pm | #
"Gotta be a pony in here somewhere!"
Whatever happened to Ivy Zellman? She was the first mainstream analyst to called out that the King was naked.
"Obama opposes reinstituting The Fairness Doctrine."
Finally a decision that makes sense from the man!
Last problem solved, time to move on to the next one... right, Ben?
wally | 02.18.09 - 2:27 pm | #
Creating the next one is what you meant, right?
Print Ben! Print!
If the Fed goes straight into full print mode you will see inflation.
By full print mode I mean buy trillions and trillions of all kinds of bonds and while at it buy gold, silver, etc.. And do it all with printed money...
Embrace Deflation. Seems to me we've had deflation in many goods and services for years. Onlt now asset deflation is joining in the party and all of a sudden it's a problem.
"Bernanke says easing not inflationary
If there ever was a better Gold and Silver buy signal, this would be it.
"The US government is on a “burning platform” of unsustainable policies and
practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and
overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon."
David M. Walker
David Walker served as Comptroller General of the United States from 1998 through 2008. He is now the CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and leader of the Fiscal Wake Up Tour. He has been a lone voice in the wilderness for the last decade regarding our looming fiscal disaster. As head of the General Accounting Office he would go before Congress and explain that the country need to change course before we flounder in a Perfect Storm of debt. They listened to him respectfully and proceeded to add $5 trillion to the National Debt in the next eight years. The borrowing binge is now entering a hyper-speed phase. President Obama has been only concerned with speed rather than long term corrective actions.
"The Burning Platform" by James Quinn. FSO Editorial 02/18/2009
Timeline of the Great Depression
this is actually a nice synopsis
@EHP 2:26,
I think policy-makers are forced to ignore, at every possible opportunity, the fact that housing is a cost input. As long as the government has billions in mortgages that it can't unload, it needs to prop up housing prices. As long as it is bailing out banks laid low by bad mortgages, high housing prices are good. To admit housing is a cost of living rather than the equivalent of your 401(k) means admitting that falling housing prices are good for some part of the country.
To me, it is insane. Gas prices down 50%, cheers all around. Housing prices down 50%? Panic! They're both inputs to the same COL, knuckleheads!
"Last problem solved, time to move on to the next one... right, Ben?"
Kinda like boneheads Dodd & Frank on Frontline piece.
"this would be it."
the gold-oil spread is starting to remind me of the treasury-junk spread in the past year
We are at 7.6% official unemployment. We are just starting to see the collapse of retail and services. Export-based business will get creamed when Asia/Europe collapse. Small businesses are still trying to make it through. We are going past 10% official unemployment this year. U6 > 20%
"This seems to move the Fed closer to an official inflation target, and the Fed is probably hoping this will increase inflation expectations (since deflation is the current primary concern)."
.
I can see why they would want to imagine a little inflation, but will the markets believe? I'm not seeing any sign of inflation where I live, as house prices are still falling. Food is flat, gas at $2.03 per gallon. I am seeing some 'cost shifting' in clothes-- fancier stuff like suits, jackets, and dresses are marked down 75% - 90%, but basics like T-shirts are up a couple of bucks each. Obviously T-shirts are where the money is made. Appliances, electronics, etc. flat or falling.
""Bernanke says easing not inflationary
If there ever was a better Gold and Silver buy signal, this would be it."
At the rate Bernanke has been easing, he is correct that it's not inflationary.
Like pissing into an ocean so far.
Right before he resigned former GAO Comptroller General David Walker also said:
The federal governments total liabilities translates into a de facto mortgage of about $455,000 for every American household and theres no house to back that mortgage. In other words, our government has made a whole lot of promises that, in the long run, it cannot possibly keep without huge tax increases.
I didn't know the Fed could pick a specific number for inflation, and vote on it. I thought that only the Politburo could do that.
I wonder if Ben fantasizes about literally dropping hundreds of billions of dollars from the sky in twenty dollar bills. I'm visualizing something along the lines of the beach landing scene with duvall.
Page 6
Paragraphs 2-4
When using MBS in open market operations, the Fed is using a 3rd party to handle the work with fees set by "competitive bidding".
They intend to show that the process is honest, but they neglect to make a provision to release details on any fees paid in conducting open market operations.
Another boring day at the circus, now that all the clowns have left the building.
Silver physical shorts are starting to get squeezed.
Those who leased it and then sold it are having to try to find sources of physical supply, and they don't exist.
Silver is both a precious and industrial metal. It's the only metal that straddles.
All metals (precious and industrial) are up today big. You are starting to see hoarding in metals.
This is phase 2 in the 5 stages of collapse.
Why don't you have some silver?
Was this posted before, sorry if i repeat it:
A History of Home Values
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/1/30/saupload_case_shiller_chart_updated.png
To me, it is insane. Gas prices down 50%, cheers all around. Housing prices down 50%? Panic! They're both inputs to the same COL, knuckleheads!
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
True, but it's hard to maintain a Zen detachment when you're a "homeowner" and the house next door goes bk. I think you'll feel somewhat the same once you get that cute little cottage in R'lyeh.
404 Not Found 0218.html
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:33 pm | #
Thanks for posting that,
So per tax payer, what is the actual number of debt taking in account unfunded liabilities like medicare etc?
Last I heard it was around 300K and that was years ago, must be a lot higher now.
When does the wealth under management @ PIMCO become fair game as a source of capital to shore up the economy (confiscated).
If Willie Horton were alive he would overlook the banks and instead be concentrating on PIMCO.
SLW announces earnings tomorrow before the opening. They will probably be bad, due to low silver prices in the 4th quarter and a couple of shipments from mines that arrived late and couldn't be sold by quarter's end.
If SLW drops by 30-50 cents after the announcement, as I suspect, it would be a good buy op, especially after all miners are a little on the weak side today, lagging behind bullion.
Page 7
Purchasing longer term Treasuries:
Hot topic. In agreement that will have desirable effects, one member wanted to begin purchases immediately. Decision was to wait, because they would like to first complete their "large" purchases of Agency debt, MBS, and support ABS markets
Nobody in Hawaii | 02.18.09 - 2:41 pm |
See answer above i.e. now greater than $455K
Gold transcends borders, penetrates every market, maintains a solid core of value throughout any storm. It is above the wily CBs ability to inflate/deflate or otherwise stretch an instruments value. It is armoured against hidden agenda and confiscation-by-other-means. It does not putrify by nature or political intrigue. It is almost infinitely divisible, transcends time, can be hammered and stamped to reflect whatever regimes' are in their cycle of power. It derives its power intrinsically and not from the by-your-leave sanction of powerful men. It cannot be counterfeited.
Many rail against its real utility. Nevertheless it is the yeoman's final suffrage, it is the commonman's refuge; it announces most clearly by its price and its hoarding that the Citizen repudiates the schemes of a central bank--a central money governor whose mandate has become not price stability, or preservation of purchasing power, but backdoor wealth redistribution.
Gold the final defense for men of means large and small. Gold, immune to the silent depredations of kingmen who view their subordinated peers as merely servants for wealth extraction; And paper money as the exchequer's right to make policy firewalled from the collective will of the people.
km4 writes:
The federal governments total liabilities translates into a de facto mortgage of about $455,000 for every American household"
Thanks, you answered my question while I was still typing it.
Well that kind of blows my supposed net worth to hell.
"Purchasing longer term Treasuries:
Hot topic. In agreement that will have desirable effects, one member wanted to begin purchases immediately. Decision was to wait, because they would like to first complete their "large" purchases of Agency debt, MBS, and support ABS markets"
I wonder whether the market will fall for Ben again and front-run his "purchases".
printing expectations ?
anyone looking at USO here? Not for a trade, but for a hold?
Scone said:
True, but it's hard to maintain a Zen detachment when you're a "homeowner" and the house next door goes bk. I think you'll feel somewhat the same once you get that cute little cottage in R'lyeh.
Agreed! Although, as long as the government is propping up prices, that cottage is probably out of reach.
From a homeowner standpoint, what you're saying makes perfect sense. But policy-makers ought to see this differently. As a policy-maker, you have to be worried if the majority of the public's future discretionary income is going to be tied up in debt servicing. There will be no one to fund consumer-driven economic growth.
Maybe the problem is that all the policy-makers are homeowners too, and, having already committed to their own debt servicing obligations years ago, don't perceive housing prices as a COL input. Because, in reality, that input is permanently fixed at the time you buy, unless you refinance.
But I'd like to think policy-makers aren't so dumb as to realize that everyone didn't get a mortgage in the 90s.
Guidelines for M2?
That's rich, if everyone puts money into a checking (sic) account, all will be well
Not one mention of the word 'bubble' or a synonym thereof.
No consideration that private credit leads the Fed and not vice versa
Someone make reservations in a retirement home please
"Not for a trade, but for a hold?"
possibly. hard to resist much lower (as is KOL under 10)
"Gold transcends borders, penetrates every market, maintains a solid core of value throughout any storm. It is above the wily CBs..."
Wow, the massed buzzing of the gold bugs is even louder now than that last time gold cracked $1K.
Not putting you all down. I'm one of you, to a point. Just wondering if this is just groupthink reinforcement or an ominous creaking in the beams of the financial superstructure.
Time will tell. Always does.
Contraction for 12 quarters, that's well into the range of depression, no?
The Lorax | 02.18.09 - 2:21 pm | #
Recession, depression; it's all in your mind.
"don't perceive housing prices as a COL input."
a bigger problem is that they're just too stupid to recognize the scale of the problem. borrowing against overpriced speculative land destroyed the midwest in the late 19th century. overcapacity didn't help then, either. now we're doing it to our previously wealthier coastal environs.
thoughts:
Re: Whitney,--she's still a babe, hope she doesn't put her own money on the line because she is going to get crushed financially.
RE: 2% target inflation, BWAHAHAHAHA!!!
RE: where do we close today, fellow geniuses?
Why don't you have some silver?
I have a plenty rich...like you I am a metals guy old school...I learned long ago what real money is.
rich;
Gold also has wide industrial uses. Everything that has a printed circuit board in is has gold and that is everything electronic. Gold has excellent electrical conductivity.
BTW, just bought 1/2 bag of junk silver (around $5400.) I figure it will spend easier than gold or silver bars. Easier to carry and store too!
gold feels like it has the same mojo tech had in '97, oil in '05... the masses are starting to really get on board in a dangerous way for the shorts. i hear commercials from gold brokers on AM radio all the time... the same kinds of stations endlessly playing refi ads just a couple of years ago.
Gold is just another medium of exchange and a commodity. It goes up and down based on demand and is subject to both panic and manipulation.
Unless FOMC sees 2% inflation every month for 48 months, I'm not sure what data they are looking at.
--bh
I think if I were on the Fed, and I really, really, really wanted to convince people that there will be no deflation, I think I'd choose a 5% inflation target, not a plain-old 2%.
The real message they are sending: complacency.
Our duty to creditor is too great!
And our means much too thin,
I must new pledges create,
To begin spending again,
For
Why did the Lord give us agility,
If not to evade responsibility?
thought thoughtful, thoughtful, pensive Ben,
as he gave his printing press another spin,
under knocking knees and twisted belly,
long stout timbers bowed like jelly
For
Some primal termite knocked on wood
And tasted it, and found it good!
And that is why your dollars pay
Fell through the parlor floor today.
Destruction of Sennacherib
MV=PQ Ogden Nash
added to it POIC....
Ciao
MS
Wake me when gold goes vertical.
But I'd like to think policy-makers aren't so dumb as to realize that everyone didn't get a mortgage in the 90s.
Margin Call of Cthulhu
.
Well, maybe they did. I had 3. (All responsibly paid, FWIW.) In any case, if the homeowner group is 65% of the population, more or less, then only 35% are renters. Tyranny of the majority.
BTW, may I ask which portion of the planet you are currently ravaging? Isn't there a foreclosure you could devour?
Produce the note. Website how to for homeowners to file legal claim forcing lenders to produce the note. Downloadable forms
Produce The Note - "How-To" | The Consumer Warning Network
"Gold is just another medium of exchange and a commodity."
but gold is the only one never consumed, absent a tall frosty glass of aqua regia.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
gold feels like it has the same mojo tech had in '97, oil in '05..
Oh and sub-prime lenders in the early 00's.
I tend to look at gold as another commodity / comedy.
They are being crushed, and it seems to act like a bubble, but who knows how long it can go.
Should finish triple digits down for Dow today.
"then only 35% are renters."
don't forget the 10% car/trailer/cart/squatter contingent, chief. growing every day.
Where is it going?
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors withdrew $74 billion in January as the economy worsened and equity markets fell, according to a report from TrimTabs Investment Research.
The withdrawals were the second highest on record, after $117 billion of outflows in December, the Sausalito, California- based firm said. Investors have pulled $315.6 billion from hedge funds since September, according to data compiled by TrimTabs.
I tend to look at gold as another commodity
I tend to look at gold as an insurance policy, against worthless dollars.
Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
I think Sumners understands gold far better than I do.
[W]e will also publish their projections of the longer-term values (at a horizon of, for example, five to six years) of output growth, unemployment, and inflation, under the assumptions of appropriate monetary policy and the absence of new shocks to the economy. - BB 02/18/09
Flying cars. I mean really, let's probe this for potential value. None. Since these "Monitors and Directors of the Universe" are so powerful they won't mind kicking off this new series of datums with a few simple back tests. Crickets chirp. What's that? "Back test?" Puleeeze.
Bring back M3 and then we can talk about your boutique numbers which we apparently can afford to track while critical measures go unreported.
but gold is the only one never consumed
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 2:55 pm | #
Good luck scraping it off those circuit board fingers. Having it end up there is about as close to consumption as you'll get (absent some aqua regia).
This is phase 2 in the 5 stages of collapse.
Why don't you have some silver?
rich | 02.18.09 - 2:39 pm | #
-----
Holy moly! Gold is moving north of 980 oz and Silver is moving north of 14.30 oz.
I might see a 100% return on my physical silver before the end of the year. I'm halfway there so far.
Silver is both a precious and industrial metal. It's the only metal that straddles.
Erm. Platinum is an industrial/precious metal too. Gold, palladium have industrial uses too. My pms of choice are silver and platinum. Didn't gold get confiscated last time?
Hedge-Fund Clients Pulled $74 Billion in January, TrimTabs Says
Email | Print | A A A
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund investors withdrew $74 billion in January as the economy worsened and equity markets fell, according to a report from TrimTabs Investment Research.
The withdrawals were the second highest on record, after $117 billion of outflows in December, the Sausalito, California- based firm said. Investors have pulled $315.6 billion from hedge funds since September, according to data compiled by TrimTabs.
What do you call 1000 bankers chained to the bottom of the ocean?
Markets are Ope
Rob Dawg wrote (in previous thread):
Didn't gold get confiscated last time?
Yeah, so now it is silver's turn.
Kidding. Rich: kidding.
The price of a share of stock in The New York Times is now $3.67 (following yesterday's close of $3.77), and that's less than the newsstand price of their Sunday paper ($4.00) in the New York metropolitan area.
"Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | # "
I have always thought of gold as "The Last Bubble..." of this financial system, anyway. After it pops... we may be somewhere else.
Unsure as to whether to sell into the bubble or hold for insurance. May factor guns sales into the equation.
Hey Benny the problem is too much debt in the system and you fools are making thingd worse. I short this Bernanke fool.
Jim Grant, a long time gold bull, says that gold is getting ahead of itself and will see a signifcant sell off soon. Still bullish long term, but he has been for the past 30 years....
PPT 3 minutes earlier than usual.
Good luck scraping it off those circuit board fingers. Having it end up there is about as close to consumption as you'll get (absent some aqua regia).
MLM
.
Actually, I just goggled 'circuit board gold recycling' and got 57,400 hits. Apparently there is a market.
Actually, I just goggled 'circuit board gold recycling' and got 57,400 hits. Apparently there is a market.
Very toxic to do IMHO, for the benefits.
you're not supposed to hump the gold, just remember that.
Everything that has a printed circuit board in is has gold and that is everything electronic.
girlbear | 02.18.09 - 2:54 pm | #
Not true; Gold was never a requirement for PCBs, though if the PCB inserted into a card cage connector, gold was usually required on the "fingers". Gold bond wires used to be the standard for IC, but aluminium is now used, probably in most cases. Gold doped diodes are still popular, but there's so little gold them, I doubt that they have more than an equivalent amount of sea water contains. BTW, I only argue with your comment about 'everything' electronic. I'm not saying that gold doesn't have uses, just that it dominate the cost of electronic goods. Note that the price of electronic consumer goods hasn't shot through the roof during this slide.
Rob Dawg,
Back test to what?
This is a new undiscovered country, and we will see new and wonderful things soon.
I can hardly wait.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Very toxic to do IMHO, for the benefits.
bfatz | 02.18.09 - 3:04 pm | # "
Yah, they ship them to China these days; there's a whole area that specializes in it. Much serious health problems.
They used to send this business to Brazil; Brazil probably wised up.
a squirrely day on the markets according to Ratiga
on topic
Anonymous Monetarist: Full Faith and Crackin' by B.S. Bernanke
3 main problems with Gold at present
( 1 ) Central banks under pressure to raise money still have a lot to sell
( 2 ) Derivatives still have the ability to absorb a lot of the new demand, both directly and indirectly with leasebacks
( 3 ) It is a market dominated by few large players that have both the knowledge and ability to manipulate price
I said at present, I think in the next few years supply will be within range of demand to become binding.
Any commodity rally in the first half of the year is extremely suspect. Strong dollar + strong commodity $ price = buyers don't buy, see wheat
What rumor did the White House leak today just before 3:00pm?
"Michael writes:
What do you call 1000 bankers chained to the bottom of the ocean?
Michael | 02.18.09 - 3:02 pm |"
A Good Start.
If the dollar becomes trash, then I will have a lot of toilet paper at least. (That's important!)
Kind of like beggar your neighbour, we all go down together. But in this case the free loaders loose nothing and we still have to pay for it.
What rumor did the White House leak today just before 3:00pm?
zippy | 02.18.09 - 3:08 pm | #
This one-
Rob Dawg wrote (in previous thread):
"California is not "in play." Leader O could have picked a half dozen more distressed regions in California but didn't. Why? Look at the California Congressional delegation. Now look at the Arizona Congressional delegation. The DNC should be billed for this junket."
Yup. Let's review where Obama has traveled recently: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia. The campaign continues, it's true.
Now show me a modern President, a politician, who hasn't -- gasp -- traveled to strengthen himself politically. Stones role down hill. Trees grow toward the sunlight. Politicians campaign -- they build support for their policies, they try to succeed. What's unusual about this? What's wrong with this?
(I seem to recall a president traveling to an aircraft carrier . . . .)
Were you expecting that he tie one arm behind his back? Do you want him to play âfairâ. For example, should he agree with Mitch McConnell that FDR caused the Depression?
Republicans might want to start hitting back with some good ideas, maybe some good campaigning of their own.
This reminds me of an anecdote I read from early in the presidential campaign. A Democratic operative invited a Republican counterpart to come to an Obama event with him. At that time Obama was still little known. Supposedly, the Republican, upon seeing Obama, said one thing, âWeâre going to need a bigger boat.â
McCain wasnât the bigger boat. Same goes for Boehner and McConnell.
Obama is going to keep the pressure on. Republicans might want to step up and start playing some Major League ball. Or they could continue to whine. Your choice.
For the gold bugs:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUST8310320090130
Safer the recycling circuit boards?
"Michael writes:
What do you call 1000 bankers chained to the bottom of the ocean?
Michael | 02.18.09 - 3:02 pm |"
Like their clients, underwater.
Bob Dobbs -
If you hold it as a hedge versus other assets then continue to do so.
If you hold it as a large speculative investment then I would sell a majority of it. Gold's value is based on perception not cash flow. Even if the fiat currencies around the world fail there is absolutely no reason to think they will return to the gold standard - actually, its almost a guarantee that it wont happen. All the survivalists here seem to love Mad Max and think thats where we are going - so why buy gold? I saw all those movies - it was oil that became the currency. Either gold is way over valued or oil is way under valued - probably a little of both. The long term correlation is way out of whack. I'd rather own oil than gold - because even though consumption may go down, much less of it will be pulled from the ground in the next 5 years....
I smell an airfare war. Already $304 RT LAX to BOS. Airlines need cash. They can trade seat miles for cash if the price is right. Seat miles are plummeting. Ergo fare wars.
This is phase 2 in the 5 stages of collapse.
Why don't you have some silver?
rich | 02.18.09 - 2:39 pm | #
I don't remember Orlov thinking that PMs were worth anything.
Also, I thought you were buying SLW or ETFs or something.
Me, I'm into physical posession. I doubled my PM holdings today - it will look silly if we have a long deflation.......
the=than. Who says gold doesn't have industrial applications?
It's a sad day when the PPT can only bump the market up 50 points. I am personally very disappointed. Hopefully they regroup and hit em harder soon.
"Michael writes:
What do you call 1000 bankers chained to the bottom of the ocean?
Michael | 02.18.09 - 3:02 pm |"
A Good Start.
Michael | 02.18.09 - 3:09 pm |
=======
lol.
If Willie Horton were alive
bearly | 02.18.09 - 2:42 pm | #
I'm sure you meant Willie Sutton.
"Where is it going?"
Bank of Serta.
Hedge fund redemption season ended on Friday for the next deadline.
Think January was bad? Wait.
Ciao
MS
"the=than. Who says gold doesn't have industrial applications?
ille_vir | 02.18.09 - 3:12 pm | # "
I believe there was a thread discussing gold butt blugs as an industrial application a few days ago.
What is PPT?
Gregg check wikipedia
where do we close today, fellow geniuses?
I put mine down in writing on the blog this morning... I thought up, that you should buy the 10:30 contra-hour.
Mainly it was because put/call ratio went above 100% for the first time in a while. Hit 170% earlier today.
Uses of gold
- Jewelery (~70+%?)
- Dentistry (~19%?)
- Industrial processes, usually good at recapturing
- Electronic stuff that goes into space (>1%)
- Physics and Chemistry experiments
I'm not a dentist, but I'm fairly certain Polymers will replace Gold entirely there soon enough
Gold is incredibly expensive to mine, but you usually get platinum or copper at the same time which helps.
I'd like to own oil outright, too, but I don't know how.
Right now, either you have the stock market risk or the contango drag of futures. They are big headwinds.
You can own gold outright in coin, bullion or ETF. You get the price appreciation, whatever it is. Not so in oil. 50% of performance or more is influenced by something other than barrel spot price.
I missed it the first time I looked. Got it now. Thanks.
re: oil, gold
I would rather own the vaults and storage tanks
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
re: oil, gold
I would rather own the vaults and storage tanks
=====
Couldn't be a better perspective, IMO.
I researched gold's run in the 70s. The physical metal outperformed the miners until very late in the game.
The best place to be in the final year of its run was microcap E & P companies on the Toronto Venture Exchange.
Just buying a basket got you a 350% gain. Buying any of the top 12 performing stocks got you a minimum 29 bagger.
You had to be willing to sell, though. It was tough to find actual price and performance data because of survivorship bias - not one of those top 12 companies exists under the same name today.
I tend to look at gold as an insurance policy, against worthless dollars.
bfatz | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Me too. The gold and silver is for if we become Zimbabwe or Weimar.
Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Oh Fuck! Talk about a contrary indicator.
ppt=pleasure principle theory
Pretty people thumping
protestant protesting theocracy
private parts thinking
pride prejudice tanking
power penis treatment
MTHood-
dawg does not feel any political discussion is appropriate in this forum. Please refrain from disagreeing with dawg - if too many people do it, he will go away, and this forum will lose one of its most self-defined purely apolitical posters .
Again.
Me too. The gold and silver is for if we become Zimbabwe or Weimar.
Realistically I do not think a country in our position needs to worry about Zimbabwe-esque inflation.
We'll see massive currency restructuing, world-wide, before something like that happens.
To bobn's point: gold is really a political hedge, not an inflation hedge.
bobn writes:
Cramer very very bullish on gold.
More evidence of a bubble forming.
6 ads on CNBC to buy govt gold since 10am today. Waiting for MC Hammer to be a guest on CNBC soon....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 2:59 pm | #
Oh Fuck! Talk about a contrary indicator.
=====
They must be new to the game...
Realistically I do not think a country in our position needs to worry about Zimbabwe-esque inflation.
We'll see massive currency restructuing, world-wide, before something like that happens.
I am sure the former Soviet Union thought the same thing....What makes you think we are better than anyone else on this planet?...we owe TRILLIONS!
I just think oil in the ground captures every important thesis that gold does, without as many douchenozzles trading alongside you.
Cantarell and the North Sea and probably several other big fields are going to fall off the edge of the earth in the next 5 years.
But you have to be aware of how things are going to trade in a peak oil scenario. Years ago, if you thought oil was going to go higher, you could pick SLB or HAL and catch the bulk of the move.
But with peak production, HAL pressure-pumping natural gas isn't going to be nearly as important as something like a DVN or a PBR that own rights to billions of barrels in the Gulf.
Fraternity In Danger Of Losing House Launches Harebrained Scheme To Fix Economy. "But Sigma Alpha Theta's plan has met fierce opposition from stodgy authority figure and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who vowed to stop the collegiate scheme."
Rich - if you want to own oil you can buy the stocks in the companies that own the reserves. That's like buying the oil. Its also very cheap to store oil right now - its not something for the individual investor (yet) but you can lease space on a tanker (there is significant excess capacity) and hold it there at very cheap rates and essentially make money by selling it in the futures market because of the contango. The undwind of speculation in the oil futures market is discounting the front end contracts since most small speculators dont want to own the oil. Larger investors are taking advantage of the contango that results by utilizing the cheap excess tanker capacity.
I think gold will see a similar speculative unwind this year. Deflation is not gold's friend and eventually the speculation and fear will subside.
When an investment strategy starts advertising during a Super Bowl the end is near....
Go Hammer! Go Hammer!
Uses of gold
"Gold is money nothing else."
Attributed to JP Morgan. That being said I am selling some right now.
Andrew Foland - you dont think oil is even a bigger political hedge? I do. Particularly considering where most of it resides.
Re: Gold.
Cramer has been as good as gold as a fade indicator whether long or short any asset class.
Cramer has been as good as gold as a fade indicator whether long or short any asset class.
Pissed off in California
====
Smart guy, unfortunately fame has ruined the usefulness of his opinion.
I smell an airfare war. Already $304 RT LAX to BOS. Airlines need cash.
[muttering to self]
Please be right.Please be right.Please be right.
In regards to how it seems as if engineers actually remain engineers their entire career in Germany, it is true that some people do work in other fields than they ones they received a doctorate in. This seems especially true for physicists. Sort of like the one to be found in this link - At last, it's Angela Merkel Barbie | Metro.co.uk
Nobody ever made a Barbie Thatcher - but then, these days, it is probably just good business for an American company to suck up to any politician it can.
Maybe just move your stop a little. I read the gold chart as an H&S that measures to about 1100.
But then, you know, that whole Cramer thing...
Ah, hell, go ahead, sell some.
airline war,
just flew to honolulu last week rt with hotel for 750 7 nights booked 2 days before flight
loved it
"When an investment strategy starts advertising during a Super Bowl the end is near...."
again - the advertisement was on the SELL side. how many superbowl ads have you seen on the sell side, not counting ebay?
When an investment strategy starts advertising during a Super Bowl the end is near....
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 3:25 pm | #
Damn, I knew there wss some reason to watch that thing.
I know... I'm seeing $325 round-trip to Nassau from where I sit.
Damn , I'm on the jury.
WHY?
Why, God, why? Wasn't the divorce and the car theft and the Dominatrix gang-bang enough?!!
.
speaking of h&s, the 3 month kol looks like it wants 5 or 6.
Louise Yamada is money. Thorough straight shooter. Called virtually every turn. A fine counselor in a sea of vapid voices.
Anyone recall her gold prognostication?
again - the advertisement was on the SELL side. how many superbowl ads have you seen on the sell side, not counting ebay?
No. It was on the 'flip' side. The buyer holds the asset for only a short time.
Analogous to the "We will buy your house" ads that were seen at the housing bubble peak. (Surely those would not be considered sell-side.)
rich writes:
"I'd like to own oil outright, too, but I don't know how."
The big boys seem to have figured this out: they just rent a tanker, fill'r'up, and park the tanker in relatively protected waters.
Gotta watch out for those Somali Pirates if you try that.
"airfare war"
Well I got a R/T from San Diego to Tampa (third week of March) for $278....Going to the 12 hour race at Sebring.
Ciao
MS
Don't Cry for Me -
Ah yeah, I know the add was to "sell" gold...because there is so much speculative demand on the other side to BUY it! THATS WHY YOU NEED TO SPEND MILLIONS TO ADVERTISE ON THE SUPER BOWL! BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO FROTHY AND THE SPREADS ARE SILLY!!!!
ppt= powerpoint slideware i.e. no real solution exists
Frazier looks a bit wobbly, knees starting to buckle.
JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon spoke on CNBC television:
SAYS OBAMA HOUSING PLAN IS ELEGANT AND WELL-DESIGNED
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Herby hoseowner is gonna get it right up the poop chute.
Damn , I'm on the jury.
WHY?
Why, God, why? Wasn't the divorce and the car theft and the Dominatrix gang-bang enough?!!
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 3:33 pm
The idea of BH as a latter-day Hunter S. Thompson has been rattling around my mind for a while without really taking root.
But today, reading a comment posted by him on his iPhone during voire dire (and getting scolded for it), I realized who BH really reminds me of:
Uncle Duke.
Doonesbury fans, you know exactly what I mean.
Condolences, Broward.
Why, God, why?
He has plans for you my son. the question is are you Henry or Lee J.?
YouTube - 12 Angry Men Trailer
"Analogous to the "We will buy your house" ads "
perhaps. houses, however, are difficult to stick in an envelope and mail.
in any case, shorting gold is to be encouraged. can't get to $3000 without the shorties. how high did rhodium get a couple of years ago?
\tDamn , I'm on the jury.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 3:33 pm | #
Congrats. View this as an opportunity to stand up for an individual against the tyranny of the state.
That or a vacation from work with crappy pay.
Here's where the anecdotal top was in the late 70s/early 80s:
When the mall aisles were filled with men in cowboy hats with an assay kit on a folding TV dinner table, offering to test and buy your gold.
We're not there yet. I'm hearing a lot of "we'll buy your estate" ads on the radio from jewelers, but they've been on since 2005.
Cash for Gold is hardly an investment opportunity...frankly the concept is quite stupid, considering one could walk into a jewelers or local coin or pawn shop and do the same thing.
Why, God, why?
=====
Calls to god land upon deaf ears.
Why this idea of Yahweh is still so prevalent, blows me away.
Wake, UP.
New Thread: Quarterly Housing Starts and New Home Sales ( 3 comments )
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Dont cry for me -
No, analogous to mortgage ads and RE broker ads when it relates to housing. I seem to recall those being at quite a high level in 2006/2007.
Look at the ETF impact on gold over the past few years - you better hope that doesnt unwind or gold is toast.
bfatz writes:
"Cash for Gold is hardly an investment opportunity"
I'll bet the folks running it are making a mint (so to speak).
I heard they are paying less than $0.25 on the dollar for the gold content - of course it has to be melted down and purified, but it's gotta be cheaper than digging it out of the ground at 0.5% concentration, grinding the oar, and extracting from that.
FWIW - Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's. It is the majority finish (since lead free initiative killed solder finish) on all pads. ENIG= Electroless nickel gold and it is the standard finish (silver is second) on most circuit boards. As far as Evil Paulsons data on >1% of PCB's for space, that is a very low use for them. I am no expert but have been in PCB manufacturing for a very long time.......
Merideth going? Damm, just like Ivy a year ago. Why to the best go and the worst stay. Means we will see more of that clown Bove on the tube now in all probability.
Any ETFs you traders follow, bearish on commercial real estate?
SRS aleady on lock- sold it off today though.
Agreed they no doubt are making a killing.
MS
I live in Tampa and am going as well.
The japanese had inflation targets, too.
sm_landlord -
You are absolutely right - they are making a mint. Even after spending millions to promote their services. But why should that mean that there is overspeculation on the buy side.....
Silly specualtors. From tech stocks, to homes, to oil, to gold... Go Hammer! Go Hammer!
THATS WHY YOU NEED TO SPEND MILLIONS TO ADVERTISE ON THE SUPER BOWL! BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO FROTHY AND THE SPREADS ARE SILLY!!!!
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 3:37 pm | #
Didn't someone expose cash4gold.com as a scam?
scone writes:
...Actually, I just goggled 'circuit board gold recycling' and got 57,400 hits. Apparently there is a market...
Or just a ton of foolish bloggers.
Yes they did sorry I do not remember the link.
"in the late 70s/early 80s:"
i studied that chart a fair amount 5 years ago.
folks forget that almost all of the real crazy action was in a very, very brief window in january '80. really just 2 or 3 trading days.
but i think gld, etc, mean we could see a mind-boggling squeeze that makes that look like the planning meeting for a tea party, where the value of all physical
Damn , I'm on the jury.
WHY?
Why, God, why? Wasn't the divorce and the car theft and the Dominatrix gang-bang enough?!!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 3:33 pm | #
Try this:
"Mrs. Judge? Maam? Yeah, sorry to interrupt but the CR blog guys following the trial online in real time want to know how to special 'malfeasance.'"
"From tech stocks, to homes, to oil, to gold."
getting a little upside action on one of the above wasn't necessarily a bad thing in the past 15 years...
i suppose the trick is knowing when the music has stopped
Arrayed upon a table lies:
-stock certificates of corporations engaging in inscrutible accounting methods
-derivatives of real estate or commercial buildings
-sovereign bonds of deeply indebted countries with large stimulus bills
-bonds of same inscrutible companies
-world currencies bound to no underlying commodity and with activist central bankers
-perishable commodities
-Precious metals
You have only one choice. You must preserve your accumulated wealth for at least seven years. It is for food on the table, roof over your head, life/soul stuff.
Choose wisely the chalice in which you retain a life's energies. Now choose and don't look back.
but i think gld, etc, mean we could see a mind-boggling squeeze that makes that look like the planning meeting for a tea party, where the value of all physical
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 3:50 pm | #
You mean like $147 oil with the same outcome?
"You mean like $147 oil with the same outcome? "
uso definitely helped the push with that one.
in any case, that $147 high is like the early 70s high in crude. we're at 1974, looking back at it, at least happy that inflation has been killed along with every other asset.
believer jeff-
My original plan was to go back to Le Mans this year (after 10 years) but the quality of the cars is actually better in Sebring this year. We won't get the Pesca's and Sebring is no France.....but I'm not flying coach to Europe ever again and B-class tix were something like $7k for me and wife. Just couldn't pull the trigger on that...
Ciao
MS
I dunno about a squeeze. Something about how COMEX handled some guy named Hunt that tried that a few years ago.
But it does do my heart a lot of good to think that JPM is short a metric assload of gold.
SLV 4X avg. Someone trying to be the Hunt Bros. apparently...
Ciao
MS
What do you call 1000 bankers chained to the bottom of the ocean?
...the lowest rung of the food chain.
I'm sure everything is going to work out just fine.
Silver and gold I think will be a better form of savings for a long time to come but both sides know it. The best way of hiding it is to increase the volatility. Run it up and cut people off at the knees.
MS
I have a size issue with coach seats. The last time I went I stood for 7+ hrs with the crew. They were pretty cool about it. 7K is way too much to fly. This will be my 2nd time to the race. 3rd time there, I did a driving school there. Sebring is definitely not France, heck Sebring isnt even Canada!
What a lot of gold idiots don't tell is that buying physical gold is not easy, but selling it can be very, very difficult.
Because gold is a bit like diamonds: it has a value only because most of it is bought and hoarded, and the sellers count on that.
jeff-
Any recs for restaurants in the Tampa area? We're not heading out until Monday so Sunday is totally free.
Ciao
MS
If aliens reverse-engineered modern passenger airplanes, they would conclude that 90% of all humans were amputee midgets based on the seating design.
Yes coach seats are modern instruments of torture. Try flying to India coach sometime, especially if you have a frame like mine (6'5" 265 lbs). Last time I went at least I was luck enough to get poor man's first class (emergency exit row) for the Chi-London leg.
MS
Depending on price you can find good stuff close to the airport. Ruth Chris', Flemmings etc. Armanis has a great view good food but overpriced. Berns in South Tampa is local and a very good steak place. Wine list is world renowned.Other than that there are more local/non chain in the South Tampa area.
Dirk,
6'3 and a "comfortable" 300. Airlines really need to get with the program on new seat sizing. Not just for fatties like me but the gen population is getting bigger. My just turned 15 yo is 6'2 200 and he has 3 kids in his class bigger than him.
I want to add the following interesting reference, showing it was an issue long time ago
In his book, A Term at The FED, Chapter 2, Larry Meyer (who by the way was my macro professor at Wash U during my PhD studies) wrote about a discussion between Janet Yellen and Greenspan during his first FOMC meeting (July 2 and 3, 1996), about what level of inflation should the FOMC shoot for, and why?.Greenspan was arguing in favor of a zero target, if inflation is properly measured while Yellen preferred 2%, imprecisely measured. The Chairman later summarized the discussion: We have now all agreed on 2 percent.
The following morning, the Chairman reminded us of the highly confidential nature of what we talk about at an FOMC meeting. He looked at us around the table and said quietly, The discussion we had yesterday was exceptionally interesting and important. I will tell you that if the 2 percent inflation figure gets out of this room, it is going to create more problems for us than I think any of you might anticipate (page 43)
I wrote this on my Blog Tintero Economico Diario (Mexico City)
This is phase 2 in the 5 stages of collapse.
Why don't you have some silver?
rich | 02.18.09 - 2:39 pm | #
rich don't be such a tease. give uo stages 3,4,5 - please monosylables only. no time for prose.
6'3 and a "comfortable" 300. Airlines really need to get with the program on new seat sizing. Not just for fatties like me but the gen population is getting bigger. My just turned 15 yo is 6'2 200 and he has 3 kids in his class bigger than him.
Maybe us Americans should improve our diet a bit? I don't think its the airliner's problem if you can't fit in their seats.
You can own gold outright in coin, bullion or ETF. You get the price appreciation, whatever it is. Not so in oil. 50% of performance or more is influenced by something other than barrel spot price.
rich | 02.18.09 - 3:16 pm | #
isn't there an oil etf you can play?
Jeff-
Thanks for info. Will check out the non-chain stuff.
Ciao
MS
I believe Rich was talking bout Orlov's 5 stages of collapse which would put 3,4, &5 as Political collapse, Social collapse and Cultural collapse... in monosylables I think you can kind of think of it as SHF & TEOWAWKI..for more check out this link Sorry. Page not found.
ports in China's Pearl River Delta (ie, ports in Shenzhen,
Guangzhou and Hong Kong) registered volume declines of 10.8% to 17.2% y-y in
4Q08 and declines of 17.5% to 30.9% y-y in January.
Such volume deterioration looks to be spreading into the Yangtze River Delta ports (ie,
ports in Shanghai and Ningbo), as Shanghai and Ningbo saw volumes decline
19.1% y-y and 9.1% y-y, respectively, in January.