BearingPoint files Chapter 11. Consultant needed." In the category of "physician heal thyself" the big management consultancy BearingPoint filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Wednesday. The New York Times covers the filing for the company that has more than 15,000 employees. In all the news about financial failings, I had missed the story of how the company originally spun off from KPMG in 2001 suffered its financial hangover largely as a result of a several years acquisition spree. "
Good for a chuckle...if your consultants file bankruptcy, shouldn't that be grounds for you to cancel their contract?
I don't think so, as for condos...
who cares? Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities.
The metrics of the last two decades will be darn new worthless for the next two. I wonder how long it will take before our leaders decide the there will be a new way and the old way is bankrupt.
That first chart is scary, especially because there's no zero supression on the vertical axis. From the second graph, it appears that this is the end of spec built homes, which is as it should be. Folks should build because they want to live in a house, not because they want to sell them.
RE condos: "Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities."
True, but that hasn't stopped builders from putting them into towns as small as 30,000. The New Urbanism and loft fads pushed condo/retail projects all over the place, with exorbitant asking prices.
"Already following closely, sold off today.
WACConomics"
Me, too, again. I will continue to buy and sell. The upswing over the last 7 days was so fast, I bailed today. Hoping it will swoon soon, so I can buy it again.
only partially a fad - selling to younger professional DINKs has been a steady buck in premium urban areas (some of which are recently 'gentrified', making for a bigger jackpot for bigger players which accumulated through the 80s and 90s)
IMO, the best way to understand oversupply is the LT new home sales chart. If you insert a historical LT sales trend line, everything above that is oversupply (2001 to 2007 is astonishing). You might not want to post it here, though, because it could scare the children.
"My plan for the next month: move to within
2 miles to work (from 70 miles to work) without increasing my rent and get rid of one car.
Comrade Tiberius"
If I were you, my plan would be to keep my job. Living outside the city when the unrest begins may or may not be a bad thing. Especially if you are aware of hidden caves in the area.
Triple digit decline in Dow is postphoned till tomorrow!
This will ensure smooth celebrations to coincide with 4 figure glod. Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 4:01 pm | #
Sounds reasonable. The last 5-6 days we've been ~300 down followed by rise or hold every other day. Tomorrow should be fun. Any announcement from Geithner or Bernanke planned for tomorrow?
Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities." WACConomics | 02.18.09 - 3:50 pm | #
I don't have a problem with these types of developments per se; it is generally the asking prices that I think are crazy. Here in Portland we have the Pearl District; people have flocked to live in condos. But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?
Look at the purpose built SFRs line and the area under the curve. There are millions of discretionary dwelling units out there that we haven't even addressed. Word of the year 2010: "overhang."
New Urbanism works well when land prices escalate. When they collapse, New Urbanism collapses unless the new construction is an unavoidable consequence of a dense urban area.
Although I must say I do appreciate downtown revitalizations.
One of the little known facts about the CRA was that the banks could make there requirements with these types of projects. Who knew that gentrification would be a side effect of the CRA?
So assuming it took $275B to keep us green by ~3 points today, how much government spending will it take to keep the markets flat for the rest of the year?
"Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- I don't know which cold medication Shoichi Nakagawa is taking, but I want some.
Anyone who has seen the video of Japan's finance minister at last weekend's Group of Seven meeting in Rome may be having similar thoughts. Nakagawa resigned yesterday even after insisting he wasn't drunk. It was cold meds, he claimed. Few in the Japanese media bought his story. It didn't help that Asahi Television dug up a November 2006 video in which Nakagawa, then head of the Liberal Democratic Party's policy- making board, looked wasted giving a speech." An excellent piece...the key is that Japan's system of bureaucracy and essentially a one-party "democracy" means that real change doesn't happen very fast.
Another chapter of my CR inspired opus "American Apocalypse." A sample:
Somewhere in there I remember looking up at Regina. Maybe I thought she would help me. One look at her face dissuaded me of that. She was enjoying watching them kick the crap out of me. I do remember grabbing a leg, giving it a nice tug, and hearing someone fall into the Weber that was cooking the squirrels. I may have imagined it, or it may be wishful thinking, but I am sure I heard a scream. Who knows, it might have been me. Somewhere in there I blacked out. I came to for a few seconds as I was being dragged feet first down a path. I think I heard old guy bitching about how heavy I was. I remember my feet dropping to ground when they let go of them. That hurt. Then someone gave me a good-bye kick and I was alone.
Kung Fu Panda writes:
"I don't have a problem with these types of developments per se; it is generally the asking prices that I think are crazy. Here in Portland we have the Pearl District; people have flocked to live in condos. But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?"
I have a problem with condos: they raise density beyond the carrying capacity of the surrounding infrastructure. Essentially they crap up any neighborhood where they get built.
New GOP Senate leader wants to kill proposed state budget deal
Dennis Hollingsworth, who ousted former Senate Republican leader Dave Cogdill in an overnight coup, says he wants to scrap the bill because it contains tax increases.
By Patrick McGreevy and Eric Bailey
12:37 PM PST, February 18, 2009
REPORTING FROM SACRAMENTO --
California's budget crisis heightened further this morning when the newly elected leader of the state Senate's Republicans, who replaced his predecessor in an overnight ouster, said he hopes to kill a bipartisan spending plan that would wipe out the state's deficit.
Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said this morning that he would like to scrap that plan and renegotiate a package without raising taxes as the current plan does.
"The vast majority of my caucus does not want to see a budget passed with a tax increase," he said. "We don't think it's necessary"
Is it just me, or does the graph show a singularity in 1Q2010?
Coworkers were talking today how they haven't seen price declines, so it must be a smart time to buy. Note: They're buying fixer uppers at 2004 fixer upper prices. Hmmm...
No price decline? Hmmm...
Capitulation isn't here yet... But soon.
BTW, moving close to work is great. Just move into a nice neighborhood, get to know your neighbors. having a small number of defensible entry points to the area is good too.
During the Rhodny King riots the police shut down all the roads and only let through people with drivers licenses showing they lived in the 'safe zone.' We're renting six blocks inside one of those 'safe zones.' Grandparents are better off (safe zone buffered by another city's safe zone).
Just do not be in the areas the police have already identified as undefendable...
I've been one predicting riots for a long time. If CA doesn't start paying welfare to the counties soon...
My grampa told me that "everyone sold everything" in GD I. I asked him why and he said, "they needed some cash." I still doubt that "everyone sold everything," but, needless to say, it made some great buying opportunities.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
"that may describe the area around lincoln and santa monica in your town. the new stuff is distinctly ugly."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply.
Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said this morning that he would like to scrap that plan and renegotiate a package without raising taxes as the current plan does.
I'm against some of the tax increases... (in favor of the gas and auto registration tax increases though), but killing the compromise puts 52,000 to 100,000 people out of work fast. Think about all the Caltrans contractors that will suddenly be bored... and hungry.
crap...
California will not recover from that for 3 to 5 years.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
I don't get the condo-hate
It's an apartment that you own and pay strata fees for.
Ha, ha. Don't forget the "maintenance" fees, which invariably go up, even when rents and prices are going down. I have not mentioned property taxes, and I have not mentiioned the fact that many "bank"s will not finance in a hi-rise building -- greater than four stories in Cali, AKA "soft-story." Caveat Emptor.
But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?
Kung Fu Panda
====
Same here, Kung Fu, same here.. and I live in Kansas City. Talk about overpriced.
WACConomics
This is real problem for the developers who want to convert empty condos into lease. They don't convert at going rental prices, and are way too high in the rental market. Hence, they stay empty.
Since they are basically just an apartment (with a couple of extra goodies like a micro-granite counter in the 'kitchen'), why are the prices of the condo's not falling. Someday the construction/development loan will expire and no bank will finance these buildings as potential lease apts if they are double the current rental market, or more.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"I don't get the condo-hate"
"Overbuilding, under-investment in amenities, and lack of planning for parking and infrastructure are all separate matters"
Not so. When they are build as infill, it is too late to plan for infrastructure. When built elsewhere, those "separate matters" are not considered either.
In an ideal world, things might be different. In the real world, most new condo developments are a blight on the neighborhood.
reptilian
That's what strata fees are; they cover maintenance, taxes. There is a management company taking a cut, but they will cut prices along with everyone else
As for bank financing, well that's an overbuilding story
The great thing about gold is it is shiny. Even if it is worth less than you paid for it, you can enjoy the shine. There must be some kind of intrinsic value in shine.
Go with Oregon, plenty of vegetation and wildlife, not to mention being able to exit stage-west, or north
WACConomics
.
Unless you need a job. We're going double-digit unemployment here, in many counties. Even if you get a job, you'll likely be underemployed. People still want to move here, so there is severe competition for any job.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes: "that may describe the area around lincoln and santa monica in your town. the new stuff is distinctly ugly."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply. sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:25 pm | #
This crowd may not know but i used to live a block Nnorth of Wilshire at 21st. Yes, just down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus.
The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade.
"Unless you need a job. We're going double-digit unemployment here, in many counties. Even if you get a job, you'll likely be underemployed. People still want to move here, so there is severe competition for any job.
scone | 02.18.09 - 4:32 pm | #"
I'm thinking Wisconsin - I have cousins with
farms there.
Understand the sunken Spanish galleons aren't delivering well their cargo of debt contracts and cloth IOUs. Pieces of eight seem to make the ocean's bottom particularly interested. Men risk their lives apparently.
Your experience is not the only one, most projects come off very well in Vancouver for blending in or even improving the area. You have a local planning problem, not a condo problem EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:32 pm | #
I keep my silver in functional form like utensils, plates, and urinals. That way I get some utility value even if the price goes down. Also, the silver urinals have the "Wow" factor with the women.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"You have a local planning problem, not a condo problem"
By your definition then, all of California and Nevada have a planning problem, as I see this every place I go within a 500 mile radius (excluding the ocean, of course).
CR - Am I right to assume that 'owner built' category includes true custom on the owner's lot and loan, "pre-solds" on contract to a builder, on a builder-owned lot, and "owner-builder" homes, where the owner is actually nailing the house together? Does anyone have a breakdown of these 3 sub-categories (for lack of a better term)?
"It's not that card-counting programs are inherently illegal, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said. It's unlawful to use such programs when you're at the tables, said Randall Sayre, a member of the state's Gaming Control Board and author of the Feb. 5 memo."
So it's OK for the casinos to use NSA-grade computer technology to monitor/control the gamblers but not for the little guy to try to even the odds? Interesting.
What does that have to do with my opinion that condos are not inherently a bad thing EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:36 pm | #
The "prospect and promise" of the 1984 Olympic miracle for Los Angeles echoes through the decades. What you are experiencing is a junkie high overdose. When the urban renewal supply is taken away the withdrawal will be twice as bad.
Rob Dawg writes:
"This crowd may not know but i used to live a block Nnorth of Wilshire at 21st. Yes, just down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus."
Yes, he likes to decorate with chain-link fence. Big, sweeping expanses...
"The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade."
Some people like density. Me, I'm planning on getting out as soon as I can buy something with some land and a view for the right price.
Building condos is the last phase of the residential real estate cycle,plain and simple. Condo prices are directly related to the price of land. Period.
Vancouver is by far in a way the most over-priced city in Canada, and I'd have to guess the market for $2mio condos on the harbour has gone from white hot to ice cold in the last 6 months. As far as zoning in Vancouver, as far as I'm concerned, one of the most beautiful cities in the world has turned itself into a kind of technicolour abortion by allowing 10,000 square foot pink pagados to be build on residential land subdivided for 1200 square foot homes in the 1950's. I cry when I drive in from the airport now.
Are the increasing number of bank failures and recent rash of Ponzi schemes keeping you awake at night? Does keeping money under the mattress look more and more attractive?
If you answered yes, then you're in luck because Hollandia International has created a mattress with a built-in safe to help you sleep easier.
Elvis writes:
"Building condos is the last phase of the residential real estate cycle,plain and simple. Condo prices are directly related to the price of land. Period."
Thus they tend to ruin the most expensive and otherwise desirable land.
Parks? We don't need parks! That's space for another 50 condos you're looking at there!
"...when food did run short, the old and sick were looked upon as drains on the community's resources. Sometimes they were killed - thrown into the sea, buried alive, locked out in the cold, or starved to death. Far more commonly they were simply abandoned to die."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply.
sm_landlord
Wow, to think I couldn't swing buying a corner lot at 17th and SM for $150K.
There is one thing, at least, that is inherently bad about condo's.
The Condo Association (and its governance). Horror stories. Power freaks. Nosey busybodies. Ridiculous rules. Ganglike opposing groups.
Also likely, people get foreclosed and condo assoc fees skyrocket when units are empty.
Put another way: how is a condo a better deal than leasing in the same building? (Unless you think that all housing, condo's included) always goes up and you get appreciation instead of the depreciation that a structure always should undergo).
I did have a broker (full-price, unfortunately) who could play in Japan during the 80s.
It was so obviously rigged. I just had a tiny little account, so I couldn't make a lot of money. But he'd call me in the afternoon and intimate that they were going to take Ichipusi Steel up 500 yen tonight, do you want in?
Come in the next day to learn that it was up exactly 500 yen, not 499, not 501.
Put another way: how is a condo a better deal than leasing in the same building? (Unless you think that all housing, condo's included) always goes up and you get appreciation instead of the depreciation that a structure always should undergo). JimPortlandOR | 02.18.09 - 4:44 pm | # ------------------------------------------------------------- Um, it just is, okay? You just don't get it, do you?
down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus."
Yes, he likes to decorate with chain-link fence. Big, sweeping expanses...
I used to annoy budding architects by telling them to come back after he finished and took away the construction materials.
"The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade."
Some people like density. Me, I'm planning on getting out as soon as I can buy something with some land and a view for the right price. sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:41 pm | #
You have my email and blog. Your time is coming. There are some awesome opportunities gestating. Private student housing for CSUCI. Bulk purchases at Seizure Village. Bottom feeding at Village in the Park and Riverpark. And, maybe, just maybe. The Somis, Camarillo, Saticoy golf corridor. Yum.
Rob Dawg,
I am experiencing nothing like an Olympics high, you are projecting your past experience on to me in the present.
There have been booms and busts of condos in Vancouver with about an 8 year cycle since WWII. The recent boom had little to do with the Olympics, and the athlete's village is 1100 units (remains to be seen what final subsidized housing amount is)
The urban renewal happened in the 90s after the development of Expo 86 lands by Li Ka-shing. Everything has turned out well, he got a good price the city got good development & amenities. The only thing that has to happen is for the school board to build more schools downtown as they promised
Parks? We don't need parks! That's space for another 50 condos you're looking at there!
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:43 pm | #
You just illustrated EHP's point. The problem is not condos, but bad planning or absent planning.
Its like the bank crisis. The problem is not banks in their essence, but the failure to regulate them in any sensible way. Ditto for mortgages, hedge funds, and, dare I say it, securitized debt.
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney, who gained fame by correctly predicting a decline in U.S. bank shares and a dividend cut by Citigroup Inc., resigned to start her own advisory firm...
Turbo,
Full agreement on over-priced. A 50% haircut is a blessing in disguise for the city. Haven't seen any new beige-pink houses built in Vancouver itself for at least 10 years though. The suburbs are another story
I am experiencing nothing like an Olympics high, you are projecting your past experience on to me in the present.
There have been booms and busts of condos in Vancouver with about an 8 year cycle since WWII. The recent boom had little to do with the Olympics, and the athlete's village is 1100 units (remains to be seen what final subsidized housing amount is) EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:48 pm | #
You are whistling past a graveyard. I am most certainly overlaying past events on your current situation. That is a negative? Are you claiming this time is different? Dangerous.
They are not making anymore land." But they neglect to tell you that most of the earth is uninhabited. There is plenty of land left.
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 4:50 pm
Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window.
"Meredith Whitney, who gained fame by correctly predicting a decline in U.S. bank shares and a dividend cut by Citigroup Inc., resigned to start her own advisory firm..."
I fail to see how that makes them inherently bad. Just a different tranche of housing
EvilHenryPaulson
.
Well, condos have a well-deserved reputation for being shoddily built, using the low-ranking elements of the construction workforce. They commonly have "actionable" problems related to these construction defects, i.e., lawsuits, etc. They can also bring down the values of homes near them, because of the increased crowding, noise, traffic, etc. School systems don't like condo projects because they get an instant influx of large numbers of kids into the classroom, which costs money and can affect the quality of education.
A condo project of over 55 people can have a big impact on the local medical systems, such as hospitals and ambulances. In some places, condos become a haven for an undesirable element with well-laundered cash. if you KWIM. And even if there are no other impacts, you suddenly get long lines at the grocery store, gas station, atm, etc. People don't like that.
Basically, a big condo project is a 'hyper-concentration' of people, which doesn't matter so much in a big city, but which has an outsized impact on a smaller city or town. So the negative impacts are partly a matter of scale, and partly a matter of demographics. It's sort of like build-out of a big tract house subdivision in a very small town, but without the road construction.
i'm looking forward to something near pismo beach in the low 100s in a few years. that will be nice. Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 4:49 pm | #
The Turbo apologists are emerging - Larry 'Blackrock' Fink - said something to the effect - I know I'm in the minority but Geithner delivered a forceful plan -
after yesteday's WAPO article - I give it 4 weeks and Turbo will be a latter day Marv Albert
It takes a certain obliviousness for the DFL (dems) who controlled the legislature forever up here, to suddenly find themselves holding the bag on a 5-7 B budget deficit and asking the public for ideas how to fix it.
Step one : you all lose your jobs for incompetence
Step two : TBD
"Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window."
if i ever actually follow up on the fantasy, i'll probably go all the way from oxnard to san simeon in terms of looking for a place. i think we're a few years away from mid 90s prices in the coastal SFRs there.
p.s. the "it" news of today was GS making margin calls to their own partners, LoL so much for tripple leverage Comrade de Chaos | 02.18.09 - 4:56 pm | #
Could also explain occasional bizarre GS moves.... ("We need a $75 print or all hell breask loose!!!!")
Elvis, if people buy only into buildings which overlook a park, more buildings would abut parks.
If people hated the stucco townhouse condos enough to skip buying them, there wouldn't be any.
There are places on this globe where relatively high density hasn't involved an absence of parks or unfortunate architecture, but most of them aren't, evidently, near where you are.
There's not anything inherently wrong with condos except that you don't like 'em.
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
No. Simpler than that. Vancouver is Seattle/Portland/Boston. That isn't a bad thing but it is a second tier thing. Hosting an increasingly less relevant winter sports conclave at extreme expense won't change that.
scone,
as joe shmoe said in my defense, that's a planning problem. Condos are just a category of housing (I dislike the general idea of a strata, but the same exist with HOAs which are very popular in America for newer SFHs)
Set height/density limits. Developers hate it, but it fosters more organic growth. Make developers pay for new amenities like parks if they want to build a new building (it's win-win because the new park boosts the value of the developer's then approved building)
fallonpdx has more answers than me in that department
WACConomics writes:
"Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window."
add:
"with sirens, car alarms and random honking constantly wailing up and down the street at all hours."
My Life In Center City Philly, 1994-97. Whadda shitehole.
if i ever actually follow up on the fantasy, i'll probably go all the way from oxnard to san simeon in terms of looking for a place. i think we're a few years away from mid 90s prices in the coastal SFRs there. Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 4:56 pm | #
Don't let my brake lights distract you from the scenery. Slow down and accept the fact that I'll get there first.
and a good thing it is - the trip from the low 400s to high 200s in value isn't as rough as the trip from the 800s to 300s places in coastal CA, CT, LI-NY, NYC, DC etc, are taking
I never understood why people wanted to live in CA when there are places like Topeka. There, the people are real, honest, god fearing Americans.
Their idea of a porno fantasy isn't a deal on sq ft. Your creeping me out. Ah, gimme a little of the Santa Rosa...Oh yeah, maybe little south...ummmm yea!
"There's not anything inherently wrong with condos except that you don't like 'em.
burnside"
I never said I don't like condos. I think people who purchase condos during the top of cycles are fools, though. Intercity parks are a great place to buy drugs and meet hookers. Can't say I want kids doing that.
All one in the same, right?
WACConomics | 02.18.09 - 4:52 pm | #
All closely related to each other, of course, except maaybe for the ice picks, unless people start using them stab the marshalls who come to evict them from their houses and condos.
I think what see in some of this discussion is a certain kind of fetishism. The fault and hence a power lies in the thing itself, instead of in the relations of people who make and use and give meaning to the thing.
Now that some CR readers have rediscovered some of the analytical power of Marx's writings (to be distinguished sometimes, at least, from his ideological and poltical stands), perhaps it would be good to go back and consider his ditties on fetishism, both in general and commodity fetishism in particular.
If ever there were a society that fucked itself with commodity fetishism, it is the US.
Personally, I'm hoping Meredith Whitney teams up with her husband and shows us some tag team action in the WWF...she can go by the name, "The Analyzer."
No, better yet, I want here to start her own reality show where, after receiving training from her wrestler-husband, she films herself ambushing CEOs coming out of elevators in downtown Manhattan.
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
I thought Vancouver had a problem with condos back in the '90s. They were poorly flashed with no drainage plane, and mold under the fake stucco was a huge story there. Perhaps you're all talking about something else.
Vancouver is the text book case study in boom-bust real estate cycles. Early 80's bust, early 90's bust, early 2000's downcycle and now a real doozer of a bust up in the works. Desirable location, real land development constraints, substantial migration and a road system designed for a city of 500,000 that is now over 2 mio all make for a boom-bust cycle on roids. Sadly, I need a good real estate crack up so I can afford to move back.
Rob Dawg writes: "Cambria. " Also the canyons and hills behind Avila Beach. Some parts of Malibu. Or even Spanish Hills in your nabe... A breeze off the ocean is important. sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:57 pm | #
Damn, I'm not the secret squirrel I thought I'd be. Hillside Malibu is still outrageous. "Spanish Hills" is no place I'd like to live for any price. I'd feel like a diorama at the museum. I live a whopping 1/2 mile away from Spanish Hills and I can tell you their weather comparatively sucks. Different sides of the hill and those all important ocean breezes.
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
I'm of the opinion that the Olympics were a happy accident and an accelerant for the building boom. Any idea could and did get financed from the rationalization of "the Olympics are coming."
2010 springtime will be a helluva hangover up there.
"No. Simpler than that. Vancouver is Seattle/Portland/Boston. That isn't a bad thing but it is a second tier thing. Hosting an increasingly less relevant winter sports conclave at extreme expense won't change that. "
Vancouver is a first tier city for Canada. There is a big draw for Asians; close to Asia, good business climate, housing is "cheap" compared to Hong Kong.
Ditto on the Olympics. And housing is still gonna get hosed, way, way out of wack.
Long-term though there is a definite draw to Vancouver that hould continue.
everything about that county would fit right into california in almost every way that counts, traffic, housing cost, etc - except the crappy weather, of course.
Re: Condos ... the issue is appropriate density. Very little density can work well because few services are needed and infrastructure needs are modest, and relatively high density can work well because needed services can be afforded.
The problem is in between, density high enough to require services and infrastructure but too low to allow them to be provided in any practical way. In those circumstances, people are forced into their cars so they drive to large parking lots on the edge. I live in suburbia with brutal traffic and no services accessible except by car.
scone,
as joe shmoe said in my defense, that's a planning problem. Condos are just a category of housing (I dislike the general idea of a strata, but the same exist with HOAs which are very popular in America for newer SFHs)
Set height/density limits. Developers hate it, but it fosters more organic growth. Make developers pay for new amenities like parks if they want to build a new building (it's win-win because the new park boosts the value of the developer's then approved building)
EvilHenryPaulson
.
All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments. And now we have a glut of condos on the market, several big projects in foreclosure. Trust me, condos are somewhat worse than a cheap tract house, but packed together like cells in a beehive. They are a different species, and when a condo project goes bad, the effects are like the worst parts of the Inland Empire-- concentrated.
You can fool all of the people some of the time; you can fool some of the people all of the time; and that should be enough for most purposes.-- Tom Weller
Maintenance not paid. Water bill not paid. One water connection only so you can't pay your own.
In my opinion nosy old ladies who run the board of directors are absolutely necessary, 'cause otherwise everybody runs hog wild.
I have heard otherwise sane people say, why do I have pay for the roof, the roof is 10 stories above me. They weren't joking.
And, no, I'd never live in one.
And ya know, all the towers built here could hardly be supported by the road schools and parks that exist. But that's ok, but nobody's gonna live in them anyway.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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"Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
reptillian"
I think that is bad timing more than Olympic caused collapse. Kind of like having sex with a woman, and then she dies in a fiery blimp crash. I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
scone writes:
"All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments."
We have similar draconian laws, maybe even as strict or even more so. They end up making things worse. Urban planning as practiced around here is a bad joke.
The Treasury needs to bite the bullet, or maybe put an adult in charge and do a cleaning on The Banking System.
How many years will this go on if something drastic is not done like Nationalzation + Responsibility. We now have dumb and dumber in charge and no one in the leadership want's to admit it.
All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments.
Scone, you can't fight a culture in severe decline. Not with all the "measures" in the world.
The extent to which one holds fiat currency is the extent to which he lends his strength to a state which may not have his best interest in mind.
"Row well, number 29, row well, and live."
Wish to become a freeman? Repudiate the system of your bondage. Gold! Gold. Gold
Otherwise bend your back to the taskmaster and prepare to be ruled over with harsh rigour. The power of you and your benighted comrades are appropriated for the needs of the state...for the needs of the fleet.
"I said no water for him" He may not drink from the living well.
" Elvis writes:
"Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
reptillian"
I think that is bad timing more than Olympic caused collapse. Kind of like having sex with a woman, and then she dies in a fiery blimp crash. I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 5:10 pm | # "
I know this thread is gone but... that really made me laugh. And very little does. Thanks.
LOL at all the gold bugs who only pop out of the woodwork when it gets bubbly.
Where were all these amazing gold quotes last quarter when the shiny metal rode the wave down to $750?
I am not saying it doesn't have value or a place in your investment portfolio. But coming on here and giving it the old "Rah Rah" is like posting on a sports blog about your amazing Steelers the day after they won the Superbowl...
Hmmm are there any numbers on the number of new sub divisions that are being developed? All I see in Indianapolis are new houses being built on the land that has been developed. Now that is a number I would like to see.
Oh, goodie...more numbers. More drinks, please!
It only looks bad because they got too high in the first place.
At least less starts than sales now. At this rate, we'll clear inventory in 2020.
Does "spec home" mean "speculative" or "specificications"--meaning, built to flip, or the opposite--built to owner specifications?
Comical questions from Boehner and the GOP Congress to Obama on the foreclosure BEFORE his plan was announced.
Ex: "...What will this plan do for the people who aren't in foreclosure?"
Republicans, analysts question Obama's foreclosure plan - CNN.com
Gee, Your Bank Smells Terrific, speculative. Sorry that wasn't clear.
best wishes
Does "spec home" mean "speculative" or "specificications
Gee, Your Bank Smells Terrific | 02.18.09 - 3:43 pm | #
Speculation -
happy hour soon..
Any ETFs you traders follow, bearish on commercial real estate?
SRS aleady on lock- sold it off today though.
BearingPoint files Chapter 11. Consultant needed."
In the category of "physician heal thyself" the big management consultancy BearingPoint filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Wednesday. The New York Times covers the filing for the company that has more than 15,000 employees. In all the news about financial failings, I had missed the story of how the company originally spun off from KPMG in 2001 suffered its financial hangover largely as a result of a several years acquisition spree. "
Good for a chuckle...if your consultants file bankruptcy, shouldn't that be grounds for you to cancel their contract?
Construction? do we really need any more houses?
I don't think so, as for condos...
who cares? Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities.
The metrics of the last two decades will be darn new worthless for the next two. I wonder how long it will take before our leaders decide the there will be a new way and the old way is bankrupt.
This is now getting interesting.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Just found this on db's site.
"Insane America: Obama Wants You to Bailout the Asshats Who Live Next Door"
Page Not Found - The Daily Bail
with video.
"... the company originally spun off from KPMG.. "
Accountants knew all along
gm said saturn is dead
WAC- What do you mean "SRS is on lock"?
"I don't think so, as for condos...
who cares? Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities."
Where I've been, condos don't really exist outside of big cities.. save for vacation hotspots. Hardly the same type of asset, see FL.
WAC- What do you mean "SRS is on lock"?
Already following closely, sold off today.
That first chart is scary, especially because there's no zero supression on the vertical axis. From the second graph, it appears that this is the end of spec built homes, which is as it should be. Folks should build because they want to live in a house, not because they want to sell them.
Think of the vast amount of resources that has been wasted upon cookie-cutter tear-downs. Unreal.
RE condos:
"Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities."
True, but that hasn't stopped builders from putting them into towns as small as 30,000. The New Urbanism and loft fads pushed condo/retail projects all over the place, with exorbitant asking prices.
In AZ, "spec home" means it was built and financed by a speculator. Bid low.
OT- What is it with this market? Don't they know the end is nigh?
desperately keeping it above the nov lows!!!!
"Already following closely, sold off today.
WACConomics"
Me, too, again. I will continue to buy and sell. The upswing over the last 7 days was so fast, I bailed today. Hoping it will swoon soon, so I can buy it again.
S&P bullz and bearz duking it out for the flatline. Who whins?
I love a close game.
a close of .3 down on DOW would set a low below November 20th. Need to keep that much up.
DOW 8,000... today!
"The New Urbanism and loft fads pushed condo/retail projects all over the place, with exorbitant asking prices."
If every city is as bad into doing this as mine, it has only just begun.
Although I must say I do appreciate downtown revitalizations. The prices though, wow. I shall continue to save until I am able to become a lessor.
"The New Urbanism and loft fads"
only partially a fad - selling to younger professional DINKs has been a steady buck in premium urban areas (some of which are recently 'gentrified', making for a bigger jackpot for bigger players which accumulated through the 80s and 90s)
CR,
IMO, the best way to understand oversupply is the LT new home sales chart. If you insert a historical LT sales trend line, everything above that is oversupply (2001 to 2007 is astonishing). You might not want to post it here, though, because it could scare the children.
Destruction is a necessarily evil.
My plan for the next month: move to within
2 miles to work (from 70 miles to work) without increasing my rent and get rid of one car.
hhhhhhooolllllldddd it.........................
Triple digit decline in Dow is postphoned till tomorrow!
This will ensure smooth celebrations to coincide with 4 figure glod.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi,
Agreed.
What a perfect demographic to target though.
Myself being a SINK, these places are enormously attractive. What isn't attractive, is the potential loss of my job.
"My plan for the next month: move to within
2 miles to work (from 70 miles to work) without increasing my rent and get rid of one car.
Comrade Tiberius"
If I were you, my plan would be to keep my job. Living outside the city when the unrest begins may or may not be a bad thing. Especially if you are aware of hidden caves in the area.
"What isn't attractive, is the potential loss of my job."
yes, complete macroeconomic collapse certainly complicates a few life and investment strategies.
It's a race to ZERO.
"Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona"
At least his first name isn't Richard.
Ciao
MS
Triple digit decline in Dow is postphoned till tomorrow!
This will ensure smooth celebrations to coincide with 4 figure glod.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 4:01 pm | #
Sounds reasonable. The last 5-6 days we've been ~300 down followed by rise or hold every other day. Tomorrow should be fun. Any announcement from Geithner or Bernanke planned for tomorrow?
"yes, complete macroeconomic collapse certainly complicates a few life and investment strategies.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi"
It makes investment strategies much simplier, actually. Life strategies remain the same: stay alive.
Formation of Death Formation forming in the U.S. major indices...
Especially if you are aware of hidden caves in the area.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 4:01 pm | #
Otherwise, invest in concertina razor wire.
Most of them never make much sense outside of the biggest cities."
WACConomics | 02.18.09 - 3:50 pm | #
I don't have a problem with these types of developments per se; it is generally the asking prices that I think are crazy. Here in Portland we have the Pearl District; people have flocked to live in condos. But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?
Sell! Sell!!
haha. the luxury condo. it's not a home. it's a lifestyle.
Look at the purpose built SFRs line and the area under the curve. There are millions of discretionary dwelling units out there that we haven't even addressed. Word of the year 2010: "overhang."
"But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?"
Makes perfect sense - of course, I assume rent for the same space would be $3,600 a month or more.
No?
Nevermind.
But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?
Kung Fu Panda
====
Same here, Kung Fu, same here.. and I live in Kansas City. Talk about overpriced.
Wow, JUST managed to close green. Talk about painting the tape.
Phew, that was a close one. You can put down the paintbrush, Kermit.
This certainly is a paradigm shift:
“We should be focusing on what works," Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina, told the FT. “We cannot keep pouring good money after bad." He added, “If nationalisation is what works, then we should do it."
New Urbanism works well when land prices escalate. When they collapse, New Urbanism collapses unless the new construction is an unavoidable consequence of a dense urban area.
what's the official close?
The market close was the most exciting nothingburger I have ever seen. Seriously.
"If I were you, my plan would be to keep my job."
That is certainly the plan for now. Moving closer to work, in fact walking distance, has its advantages.
If we need to flee the city, we have family in Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon.
I gotta tell you, that if you bought those redevelopment, downtown condos early, like '97 or '98 you are doing well. Speaking of San Jose.
Although I must say I do appreciate downtown revitalizations.
One of the little known facts about the CRA was that the banks could make there requirements with these types of projects. Who knew that gentrification would be a side effect of the CRA?
Big Auction starting next week at Timmay's House of Illusions:
Upcoming Auctions
1/4, 1/2, 2, 5 and 7 Year notes.
Ciao
MS
ok all news is out...time to buy for options close...
up 3.03 on the DOW.
"Word of the year 2010: "overhang."
That was the Word of the Year for 2007, 2008, and 2009 (to be) along with the Phrase of the Year "Lubricated Prices."
If we need to flee the city, we have family in Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon.
Comrade Tiberius
====
Go with Oregon, plenty of vegetation and wildlife, not to mention being able to exit stage-west, or north
"If we need to flee the city, we have family in Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon.
Comrade Tiberius"
If you have to flee, "they" will catch you and eat you.
his certainly is a paradigm shift:
“We should be focusing on what works,"
xxxxx | 02.18.09 - 4:07 pm | #
Damn, I just can't make some of these sites link. Sorry about that. The pertinent info is in the quote anyway.
So assuming it took $275B to keep us green by ~3 points today, how much government spending will it take to keep the markets flat for the rest of the year?
Closed down! This is signifigant moment in market history. The S&P has close below 800 for two days in a row.
"So assuming it took $275B to keep us green"
junk wasn't green today.
nor was berkshire or oil. ugly day around the edges.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
"So assuming it took $275B to keep us green"
What is green today? Dow and S&p both down!
I predict a bouncing around the lows phase for a little bit. Not sure it makes sense, but that is my gut feeling.
What is green today? Dow and S&p both down!
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 4:13 pm | #
I think DOW is up 3. Interactive Brokers doesn't get the close right.
"Closed down! This is signifigant moment in market history. The S&P has close below 800 for two days in a row."
Well, before around 1997 it used to do that everyday.
Dow\t7,555.63\t+3.03\t+0.04%
Five Reasons for Japan's Leaders to Get Drunk: William Pesek
"Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- I don't know which cold medication Shoichi Nakagawa is taking, but I want some.
Anyone who has seen the video of Japan's finance minister at last weekend's Group of Seven meeting in Rome may be having similar thoughts. Nakagawa resigned yesterday even after insisting he wasn't drunk. It was cold meds, he claimed.
Few in the Japanese media bought his story. It didn't help that Asahi Television dug up a November 2006 video in which Nakagawa, then head of the Liberal Democratic Party's policy- making board, looked wasted giving a speech."
An excellent piece...the key is that Japan's system of bureaucracy and essentially a one-party "democracy" means that real change doesn't happen very fast.
If you have to flee, "they" will catch you and eat you.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 4:10 pm | #
Another chapter of my CR inspired opus "American Apocalypse." A sample:
Somewhere in there I remember looking up at Regina. Maybe I thought she would help me. One look at her face dissuaded me of that. She was enjoying watching them kick the crap out of me. I do remember grabbing a leg, giving it a nice tug, and hearing someone fall into the Weber that was cooking the squirrels. I may have imagined it, or it may be wishful thinking, but I am sure I heard a scream. Who knows, it might have been me. Somewhere in there I blacked out. I came to for a few seconds as I was being dragged feet first down a path. I think I heard old guy bitching about how heavy I was. I remember my feet dropping to ground when they let go of them. That hurt. Then someone gave me a good-bye kick and I was alone.
follow the link for more...
Dow\t7,555.63\t+3.03\t+0.04%
Nasdaq\t1,467.97\t-2.69\t-0.18%
S&P 500\t788.42\t -0.75\t-0.10%
Eric writes:
What is green today? Dow and S&p both down!
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 4:13 pm | #
I think DOW is up 3. Interactive Brokers doesn't get the close right.
No. It is down, down, down. There was a sell imbalance.
Our former President was precient: "This sucker could go down."
in any case, the 3-month on KOL is really frightening. kind of like C's h&s 18 months ago which was the real portent of doom.
hp will move market up for a cple minutes tomm. or maybe not
4:12 p.m.
[HPQ] Hewlett-Packard sees Q2 earnings of 70c-72c a share
HPQ] Hewlett-Packard sees 2009 rev to fall 2%-5% from 2008
briwerk writes:
"Closed down! This is signifigant moment in market history. The S&P has close below 800 for two days in a row."
Well, before around 1997 it used to do that everyday.
We are time traveling. Hoocoodanode?
No. It is down, down, down. There was a sell imbalance.
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 4:17 pm | #
So far, no print (I checked WSJ, Yahoo, BLP) agrees with you.
It's down AH, but so far the nov low stands. That could change, but it's getting kinda late for that.
Kung Fu Panda writes:
"I don't have a problem with these types of developments per se; it is generally the asking prices that I think are crazy. Here in Portland we have the Pearl District; people have flocked to live in condos. But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?"
I have a problem with condos: they raise density beyond the carrying capacity of the surrounding infrastructure. Essentially they crap up any neighborhood where they get built.
Sell everything! Next stop DOW 6500. We have to test Greedspend's "irrational exuberance" comments.
New GOP Senate leader wants to kill proposed state budget deal
Dennis Hollingsworth, who ousted former Senate Republican leader Dave Cogdill in an overnight coup, says he wants to scrap the bill because it contains tax increases.
By Patrick McGreevy and Eric Bailey
12:37 PM PST, February 18, 2009
REPORTING FROM SACRAMENTO --
California's budget crisis heightened further this morning when the newly elected leader of the state Senate's Republicans, who replaced his predecessor in an overnight ouster, said he hopes to kill a bipartisan spending plan that would wipe out the state's deficit.
Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said this morning that he would like to scrap that plan and renegotiate a package without raising taxes as the current plan does.
"The vast majority of my caucus does not want to see a budget passed with a tax increase," he said. "We don't think it's necessary"
Schwarzenegger says lawmakers resisting budget plan 'have math problem' - Los Angeles Times
"Essentially they crap up any neighborhood where they get built."
that may describe the area around lincoln and santa monica in your town. the new stuff is distinctly ugly.
What is KOL exactly?
Did Japan Just Buy the IMF’s 400 Tonnes of Gold? | Rapid Trends - Gold and Silver Bullion
Don't those drunkards know that AU is an obsolete relic and in a bubble?
What is KOL exactly?
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 4:21 pm
British people making phone kols?
What is KOL exactly?
///
a global etf of coal companies, i think 3/4 gringo
these clowns in Cali are tempting me to go all out tony montana on them...plus they grow the coca there anyways...
abbreviations damn they throw me off every time.
re: Nakagawa
I just picture him sitting there muttering:
"fuzzy wuzzy was a bear......"
Ciao
MS
Is it just me, or does the graph show a singularity in 1Q2010?
Coworkers were talking today how they haven't seen price declines, so it must be a smart time to buy. Note: They're buying fixer uppers at 2004 fixer upper prices. Hmmm...
No price decline? Hmmm...
Capitulation isn't here yet... But soon.
BTW, moving close to work is great. Just move into a nice neighborhood, get to know your neighbors. having a small number of defensible entry points to the area is good too.
During the Rhodny King riots the police shut down all the roads and only let through people with drivers licenses showing they lived in the 'safe zone.' We're renting six blocks inside one of those 'safe zones.'
Grandparents are better off (safe zone buffered by another city's safe zone).
Just do not be in the areas the police have already identified as undefendable...
I've been one predicting riots for a long time. If CA doesn't start paying welfare to the counties soon...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I don't get the condo-hate
It's an apartment that you own and pay strata fees for.
They mark neither good nor bad planning in themselves.
Overbuilding, under-investment in amenities, and lack of planning for parking and infrastructure are all separate matters
Can't believe i am asking this but what is the all time high for Gold?
My grampa told me that "everyone sold everything" in GD I. I asked him why and he said, "they needed some cash." I still doubt that "everyone sold everything," but, needless to say, it made some great buying opportunities.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
"that may describe the area around lincoln and santa monica in your town. the new stuff is distinctly ugly."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply.
Did you guys see the Ewok in CNBC?
"Anonymous writes:
Can't believe i am asking this but what is the all time high for Gold?
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 4:24 pm | # "
Inflation adjusted it would be around when my parents bought it in the 80's. In nominal terms it took them over 20 years to break even.
Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said this morning that he would like to scrap that plan and renegotiate a package without raising taxes as the current plan does.
I'm against some of the tax increases... (in favor of the gas and auto registration tax increases though), but killing the compromise puts 52,000 to 100,000 people out of work fast. Think about all the Caltrans contractors that will suddenly be bored... and hungry.
crap...
California will not recover from that for 3 to 5 years.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
I don't get the condo-hate
It's an apartment that you own and pay strata fees for.
Ha, ha. Don't forget the "maintenance" fees, which invariably go up, even when rents and prices are going down. I have not mentioned property taxes, and I have not mentiioned the fact that many "bank"s will not finance in a hi-rise building -- greater than four stories in Cali, AKA "soft-story." Caveat Emptor.
But $300k or more for 900 sq ft basically an apartment?
Kung Fu Panda
====
Same here, Kung Fu, same here.. and I live in Kansas City. Talk about overpriced.
WACConomics
This is real problem for the developers who want to convert empty condos into lease. They don't convert at going rental prices, and are way too high in the rental market. Hence, they stay empty.
Since they are basically just an apartment (with a couple of extra goodies like a micro-granite counter in the 'kitchen'), why are the prices of the condo's not falling. Someday the construction/development loan will expire and no bank will finance these buildings as potential lease apts if they are double the current rental market, or more.
Are these developers still in dreamland?
Pissed off -
Same thing happened to my folks. They were suckered in the last gold bubble.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"I don't get the condo-hate"
"Overbuilding, under-investment in amenities, and lack of planning for parking and infrastructure are all separate matters"
Not so. When they are build as infill, it is too late to plan for infrastructure. When built elsewhere, those "separate matters" are not considered either.
In an ideal world, things might be different. In the real world, most new condo developments are a blight on the neighborhood.
Gold only goes up.
reptilian
That's what strata fees are; they cover maintenance, taxes. There is a management company taking a cut, but they will cut prices along with everyone else
As for bank financing, well that's an overbuilding story
The great thing about gold is it is shiny. Even if it is worth less than you paid for it, you can enjoy the shine. There must be some kind of intrinsic value in shine.
"Can't believe i am asking this but what is the all time high for Gold?"
go to kinko.com and look at the prices in january 1980 in the historical area.
in absolute terms, it is the high from last year.
tehachapi, eh.. that would be kitco
sm_landlord
Your experience is not the only one, most projects come off very well in Vancouver for blending in or even improving the area.
You have a local planning problem, not a condo problem
I have silver coins. I like the "Chink-chink" sound they make.
"that would be kitco"
right, only insiders have the link to the copier store/pawn shop site
I went to kinko.com and all I got was some crazy porn. Thanks.
Go with Oregon, plenty of vegetation and wildlife, not to mention being able to exit stage-west, or north
WACConomics
.
Unless you need a job. We're going double-digit unemployment here, in many counties. Even if you get a job, you'll likely be underemployed. People still want to move here, so there is severe competition for any job.
"most projects come off very well in Vancouver"
too bad the firehose of chinese money behind all those glass boxes isn't what it once was
Evidently some of us live in areas where condos are generally awful.
Is this a "crappy neighborhood"?:
http://www.fotostudio-wien.info/gallery2/d/18-2/Epic-Miami_Condo_Page_18.jpg
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi writes:
"that may describe the area around lincoln and santa monica in your town. the new stuff is distinctly ugly."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:25 pm | #
This crowd may not know but i used to live a block Nnorth of Wilshire at 21st. Yes, just down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus.
The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade.
re: condos + planning
fallonPDX is probably the resident expert on the topic.
Personally, I feel that electrum pieces hold their value more than any other coins of the realm.
"and all I got was "
look under the 'mature' category, gold quotes are there along with the hot granny actio
"Unless you need a job. We're going double-digit unemployment here, in many counties. Even if you get a job, you'll likely be underemployed. People still want to move here, so there is severe competition for any job.
scone | 02.18.09 - 4:32 pm | #"
I'm thinking Wisconsin - I have cousins with
farms there.
Neil,
Any way to get a map of where those safe-zones are?
Understand the sunken Spanish galleons aren't delivering well their cargo of debt contracts and cloth IOUs. Pieces of eight seem to make the ocean's bottom particularly interested. Men risk their lives apparently.
Your experience is not the only one, most projects come off very well in Vancouver for blending in or even improving the area.
You have a local planning problem, not a condo problem
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:32 pm | #
Talk to me after the Winter Olympics.
I keep my silver in functional form like utensils, plates, and urinals. That way I get some utility value even if the price goes down. Also, the silver urinals have the "Wow" factor with the women.
"More drinks, please!"
I know. CR is on fire today, so were the market makers (given any of those are still in the game, not.)
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"You have a local planning problem, not a condo problem"
By your definition then, all of California and Nevada have a planning problem, as I see this every place I go within a 500 mile radius (excluding the ocean, of course).
Gold will come down. Condos will come down. SFR will come down. CRE will come down. Silver will come down. Have I left anything out?
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 4:34 pm
I always larn when I come here.
Inflation adjusted it would be around when my parents bought it in the 80's. In nominal terms it took them over 20 years to break even.
Good thing your parents didn't buy the Nikkei, or did they? Still waiting to break even.
Rob Dawg,
Talk to you about what, cost overruns?
What does that have to do with my opinion that condos are not inherently a bad thing
larn = learn - which I need to do
larn = learn - which I need to do
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:36 pm | #
I was totally into that hillbilly vernacular, no problem!
"Have I left anything out?"
huh, Viva Viagra?!?
Elvis, I'm sure you WOW the ladies even without the silver urinal.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Rob Dawg,
Talk to you about what, cost overruns?
What does that have to do with my opinion that condos are not inherently a bad thing
Condos are inherently bad in a downturn. If you want something resilient, you must buy a 3/2 SFR. CONdos only do well in a boom.
CR - Am I right to assume that 'owner built' category includes true custom on the owner's lot and loan, "pre-solds" on contract to a builder, on a builder-owned lot, and "owner-builder" homes, where the owner is actually nailing the house together? Does anyone have a breakdown of these 3 sub-categories (for lack of a better term)?
Nova,
Glad I could help you out. All silver coins should be melted and used functionally until sold. It is the unwritten code.
"Good thing your parents didn't buy the Nikkei, or did they?"
the funny thing is that the nikkei was a great hold in the 70s, totally smoked the djia...
the funny thing is that the nikkei was a great hold in the 70s, totally smoked the djia...
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 4:38 pm | #
If only you could know.
It is the unwritten code.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 4:38 pm
Oh, that code. I keep someone will blog it.
Gold will come down. Condos will come down. SFR will come down. CRE will come down. Silver will come down. Have I left anything out?
reptillian
====
The $
Apple IPhone Card Counter Prompts Warning to Nevada Casinos
"It's not that card-counting programs are inherently illegal, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said. It's unlawful to use such programs when you're at the tables, said Randall Sayre, a member of the state's Gaming Control Board and author of the Feb. 5 memo."
So it's OK for the casinos to use NSA-grade computer technology to monitor/control the gamblers but not for the little guy to try to even the odds? Interesting.
must learn to preview!!! arghhhhhhhh
There must be some kind of intrinsic value in shine.
If you were The Bank of Elvis, that would be called "goodwill."
reptilian
Again, you're not arguing against anything I said. Condos are the biggest bubble on the way and and the hardest hit on the way down.
I fail to see how that makes them inherently bad. Just a different tranche of housing
"If only you could know."
i'm sure it was a pretty limited group of investors who had access to that kind of action here in the states...
but buying into japan when those datsun 1600s hit the shores here would have been a smart play
Rob Dawg,
Talk to you about what, cost overruns?
What does that have to do with my opinion that condos are not inherently a bad thing
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:36 pm | #
The "prospect and promise" of the 1984 Olympic miracle for Los Angeles echoes through the decades. What you are experiencing is a junkie high overdose. When the urban renewal supply is taken away the withdrawal will be twice as bad.
Rob Dawg writes:
"This crowd may not know but i used to live a block Nnorth of Wilshire at 21st. Yes, just down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus."
Yes, he likes to decorate with chain-link fence. Big, sweeping expanses...
"The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade."
Some people like density. Me, I'm planning on getting out as soon as I can buy something with some land and a view for the right price.
Datsun 510 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
check out the picture in the article...
AWESOME!
Building condos is the last phase of the residential real estate cycle,plain and simple. Condo prices are directly related to the price of land. Period.
When the urban renewal supply is taken away the withdrawal will be twice as bad.
At this point, which I agree is inevitable, I intend upon being well positioned to profit.
Vancouver is by far in a way the most over-priced city in Canada, and I'd have to guess the market for $2mio condos on the harbour has gone from white hot to ice cold in the last 6 months. As far as zoning in Vancouver, as far as I'm concerned, one of the most beautiful cities in the world has turned itself into a kind of technicolour abortion by allowing 10,000 square foot pink pagados to be build on residential land subdivided for 1200 square foot homes in the 1950's. I cry when I drive in from the airport now.
Are the increasing number of bank failures and recent rash of Ponzi schemes keeping you awake at night? Does keeping money under the mattress look more and more attractive?
If you answered yes, then you're in luck because Hollandia International has created a mattress with a built-in safe to help you sleep easier.
Keep your money under the mattress (Dealscape - Crisis On Wall Street)
Elvis writes:
"Building condos is the last phase of the residential real estate cycle,plain and simple. Condo prices are directly related to the price of land. Period."
Thus they tend to ruin the most expensive and otherwise desirable land.
Parks? We don't need parks! That's space for another 50 condos you're looking at there!
p.s. financial advisors are very bulish on gold, not neccesarry a good sign
The other side of "Austrian" economics:
"...when food did run short, the old and sick were looked upon as drains on the community's resources. Sometimes they were killed - thrown into the sea, buried alive, locked out in the cold, or starved to death. Far more commonly they were simply abandoned to die."
The new stuff is beyond ugly, and getting smaller as well. They are now trying to sell low-income artist loft condos on Olympic - they things might have 300 usable sq ft. Only starving artists who can borrow $300K need apply.
sm_landlord
Wow, to think I couldn't swing buying a corner lot at 17th and SM for $150K.
"I cry when I drive in from the airport now.
Turbo"
Don't gamble in Vegas anymore. Problem solved.
There is one thing, at least, that is inherently bad about condo's.
The Condo Association (and its governance). Horror stories. Power freaks. Nosey busybodies. Ridiculous rules. Ganglike opposing groups.
Also likely, people get foreclosed and condo assoc fees skyrocket when units are empty.
Put another way: how is a condo a better deal than leasing in the same building? (Unless you think that all housing, condo's included) always goes up and you get appreciation instead of the depreciation that a structure always should undergo).
reptilian-yes you left out most important
ummm my girlfriend! hence the word girlfriend..
I did have a broker (full-price, unfortunately) who could play in Japan during the 80s.
It was so obviously rigged. I just had a tiny little account, so I couldn't make a lot of money. But he'd call me in the afternoon and intimate that they were going to take Ichipusi Steel up 500 yen tonight, do you want in?
Come in the next day to learn that it was up exactly 500 yen, not 499, not 501.
"Parks? We don't need parks! That's space for another 50 condos you're looking at there!"
actually, if most of us lived in the urban jungle, there would be more parks around....
a building for 50 condos takes much less space then let's say 50 McMentions in the fire prone areas.
Put another way: how is a condo a better deal than leasing in the same building? (Unless you think that all housing, condo's included) always goes up and you get appreciation instead of the depreciation that a structure always should undergo).
JimPortlandOR | 02.18.09 - 4:44 pm | #
-------------------------------------------------------------
Um, it just is, okay? You just don't get it, do you?
"The other side of "Austrian" economics"
sounds like a plan to me
down the street from Gheary's abortifact interuptus."
Yes, he likes to decorate with chain-link fence. Big, sweeping expanses...
I used to annoy budding architects by telling them to come back after he finished and took away the construction materials.
"The city has indeed bifurcated into the haves and the wannas. Why anyone would want to "buy in" is beyond my pay grade."
Some people like density. Me, I'm planning on getting out as soon as I can buy something with some land and a view for the right price.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:41 pm | #
You have my email and blog. Your time is coming. There are some awesome opportunities gestating. Private student housing for CSUCI. Bulk purchases at Seizure Village. Bottom feeding at Village in the Park and Riverpark. And, maybe, just maybe. The Somis, Camarillo, Saticoy golf corridor. Yum.
Rob Dawg,
I am experiencing nothing like an Olympics high, you are projecting your past experience on to me in the present.
There have been booms and busts of condos in Vancouver with about an 8 year cycle since WWII. The recent boom had little to do with the Olympics, and the athlete's village is 1100 units (remains to be seen what final subsidized housing amount is)
The urban renewal happened in the 90s after the development of Expo 86 lands by Li Ka-shing. Everything has turned out well, he got a good price the city got good development & amenities. The only thing that has to happen is for the school board to build more schools downtown as they promised
"actually, if most of us lived in the urban jungle, there would be more parks around...."
Just not close enough for the kids in the city to play at. "Billy, let's go play football in the hall."
"There are some awesome opportunities gestating."
i'm looking forward to something near pismo beach in the low 100s in a few years. that will be nice.
Parks? We don't need parks! That's space for another 50 condos you're looking at there!
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:43 pm | #
You just illustrated EHP's point. The problem is not condos, but bad planning or absent planning.
Its like the bank crisis. The problem is not banks in their essence, but the failure to regulate them in any sensible way. Ditto for mortgages, hedge funds, and, dare I say it, securitized debt.
MN is broke, and asking the public for ideas
Minn. Dems Ask Public For Ideas To Fix $5B Deficit - wcco.com
My guess : tried and true class warfare. We're hosed up here.
Oppenheimer’s Whitney Resigns to Start Her Own Firm (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney, who gained fame by correctly predicting a decline in U.S. bank shares and a dividend cut by Citigroup Inc., resigned to start her own advisory firm...
"They are not making anymore land." But they neglect to tell you that most of the earth is uninhabited. There is plenty of land left.
Turbo,
Full agreement on over-priced. A 50% haircut is a blessing in disguise for the city. Haven't seen any new beige-pink houses built in Vancouver itself for at least 10 years though. The suburbs are another story
I am experiencing nothing like an Olympics high, you are projecting your past experience on to me in the present.
There have been booms and busts of condos in Vancouver with about an 8 year cycle since WWII. The recent boom had little to do with the Olympics, and the athlete's village is 1100 units (remains to be seen what final subsidized housing amount is)
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:48 pm | #
You are whistling past a graveyard. I am most certainly overlaying past events on your current situation. That is a negative? Are you claiming this time is different? Dangerous.
"Just not close enough for the kids in the city to play at. "Billy, let's go play football in the hall."
"My guess : tried and true class warfare. We're hosed up here.
Sports Guy Lafleur"
Sell your water to the West.
They are not making anymore land." But they neglect to tell you that most of the earth is uninhabited. There is plenty of land left.
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 4:50 pm
Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window.
"Ditto for mortgages, hedge funds, and, dare I say it, securitized debt."
All one in the same, right?
Absolutely Must See Video: Travel Around With Taxpayer Prize Patrol
Page Not Found - The Daily Bail
The guys who made this video are genius.
"Meredith Whitney, who gained fame by correctly predicting a decline in U.S. bank shares and a dividend cut by Citigroup Inc., resigned to start her own advisory firm..."
Resigned? Interesting choice of words.
I fail to see how that makes them inherently bad. Just a different tranche of housing
EvilHenryPaulson
.
Well, condos have a well-deserved reputation for being shoddily built, using the low-ranking elements of the construction workforce. They commonly have "actionable" problems related to these construction defects, i.e., lawsuits, etc. They can also bring down the values of homes near them, because of the increased crowding, noise, traffic, etc. School systems don't like condo projects because they get an instant influx of large numbers of kids into the classroom, which costs money and can affect the quality of education.
A condo project of over 55 people can have a big impact on the local medical systems, such as hospitals and ambulances. In some places, condos become a haven for an undesirable element with well-laundered cash. if you KWIM. And even if there are no other impacts, you suddenly get long lines at the grocery store, gas station, atm, etc. People don't like that.
Basically, a big condo project is a 'hyper-concentration' of people, which doesn't matter so much in a big city, but which has an outsized impact on a smaller city or town. So the negative impacts are partly a matter of scale, and partly a matter of demographics. It's sort of like build-out of a big tract house subdivision in a very small town, but without the road construction.
"There are some awesome opportunities gestating."
i'm looking forward to something near pismo beach in the low 100s in a few years. that will be nice.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Cambria.
laters all, got to do some work while I still have it
BR.
Rob Dawg,
What are you saying is the same?
That the Olympics caused a condo boom?
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics
The Turbo apologists are emerging - Larry 'Blackrock' Fink - said something to the effect - I know I'm in the minority but Geithner delivered a forceful plan -
after yesteday's WAPO article - I give it 4 weeks and Turbo will be a latter day Marv Albert
It takes a certain obliviousness for the DFL (dems) who controlled the legislature forever up here, to suddenly find themselves holding the bag on a 5-7 B budget deficit and asking the public for ideas how to fix it.
Step one : you all lose your jobs for incompetence
Step two : TBD
The urban renewal happened in the 90s after the development of Expo 86 lands by Li Ka-shing.
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:48 pm | #
Was this guys nickname Lee Ka-Ching by any chance;-)
p.s. the "it" news of today was GS making margin calls to their own partners, LoL so much for tripple leverage
"Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window."
====
lol, home sweet home.
"Cambria."
if i ever actually follow up on the fantasy, i'll probably go all the way from oxnard to san simeon in terms of looking for a place. i think we're a few years away from mid 90s prices in the coastal SFRs there.
p.s. the "it" news of today was GS making margin calls to their own partners, LoL so much for tripple leverage
Comrade de Chaos | 02.18.09 - 4:56 pm | #
Could also explain occasional bizarre GS moves.... ("We need a $75 print or all hell breask loose!!!!")
Elvis, if people buy only into buildings which overlook a park, more buildings would abut parks.
If people hated the stucco townhouse condos enough to skip buying them, there wouldn't be any.
There are places on this globe where relatively high density hasn't involved an absence of parks or unfortunate architecture, but most of them aren't, evidently, near where you are.
There's not anything inherently wrong with condos except that you don't like 'em.
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
No. Simpler than that. Vancouver is Seattle/Portland/Boston. That isn't a bad thing but it is a second tier thing. Hosting an increasingly less relevant winter sports conclave at extreme expense won't change that.
Rob Dawg writes:
"Cambria. "
Also the canyons and hills behind Avila Beach.
Some parts of Malibu.
Or even Spanish Hills in your nabe...
A breeze off the ocean is important.
"So the negative impacts are partly a matter of scale, and partly a matter of demographics."
Demographics is a dangerous argument to make.
scone,
as joe shmoe said in my defense, that's a planning problem. Condos are just a category of housing (I dislike the general idea of a strata, but the same exist with HOAs which are very popular in America for newer SFHs)
Set height/density limits. Developers hate it, but it fosters more organic growth. Make developers pay for new amenities like parks if they want to build a new building (it's win-win because the new park boosts the value of the developer's then approved building)
fallonpdx has more answers than me in that department
All financial stocks must go to zero. How else to realize that free BK and FDIC money?
New financials will open the next day. It's not rocket science.
WACConomics writes:
"Yeah, but I want to pay big money so strange dogs can crap in my yard. People yelling in 3 different languages keep me up 3 different nights, and someone can break out my car window."
add:
"with sirens, car alarms and random honking constantly wailing up and down the street at all hours."
My Life In Center City Philly, 1994-97. Whadda shitehole.
if i ever actually follow up on the fantasy, i'll probably go all the way from oxnard to san simeon in terms of looking for a place. i think we're a few years away from mid 90s prices in the coastal SFRs there.
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 4:56 pm | #
Don't let my brake lights distract you from the scenery. Slow down and accept the fact that I'll get there first.
"but it is a second tier thing. "
and a good thing it is - the trip from the low 400s to high 200s in value isn't as rough as the trip from the 800s to 300s places in coastal CA, CT, LI-NY, NYC, DC etc, are taking
Here in my area of NE PA, I just received a renewal notice from my landlord about next year's lease.
He's asking for a rent increase. 5%. And yes, I rent in a Condo.
Where's the rent decline and overbuilding of Condo everyone's talking about?
Reality and news don't jive.
I never understood why people wanted to live in CA when there are places like Topeka. There, the people are real, honest, god fearing Americans.
Their idea of a porno fantasy isn't a deal on sq ft. Your creeping me out. Ah, gimme a little of the Santa Rosa...Oh yeah, maybe little south...ummmm yea!
"There's not anything inherently wrong with condos except that you don't like 'em.
burnside"
I never said I don't like condos. I think people who purchase condos during the top of cycles are fools, though. Intercity parks are a great place to buy drugs and meet hookers. Can't say I want kids doing that.
All one in the same, right?
WACConomics | 02.18.09 - 4:52 pm | #
All closely related to each other, of course, except maaybe for the ice picks, unless people start using them stab the marshalls who come to evict them from their houses and condos.
I think what see in some of this discussion is a certain kind of fetishism. The fault and hence a power lies in the thing itself, instead of in the relations of people who make and use and give meaning to the thing.
Now that some CR readers have rediscovered some of the analytical power of Marx's writings (to be distinguished sometimes, at least, from his ideological and poltical stands), perhaps it would be good to go back and consider his ditties on fetishism, both in general and commodity fetishism in particular.
If ever there were a society that fucked itself with commodity fetishism, it is the US.
"Some parts of Malibu."
even in the worst possible outcome like a japanesstyle 20 year RE bear, malibu ocean view houses will still never go back under 600K.
Personally, I'm hoping Meredith Whitney teams up with her husband and shows us some tag team action in the WWF...she can go by the name, "The Analyzer."
No, better yet, I want here to start her own reality show where, after receiving training from her wrestler-husband, she films herself ambushing CEOs coming out of elevators in downtown Manhattan.
Your landlord's reality isn't yours, I hope. Threaten to move.
Rob Dawg,
What are you saying is the same?
That the Olympics caused a condo boom?
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
I thought Vancouver had a problem with condos back in the '90s. They were poorly flashed with no drainage plane, and mold under the fake stucco was a huge story there. Perhaps you're all talking about something else.
even in the worst possible outcome like a japanesstyle 20 year RE bear, malibu ocean view houses will still never go back under 600K.
Lemme guess: Cuz it's different there.
Cambria,
CSC might be there! Good local product..
Arroyo Grande and SLO maybe shell beach..call me when you both get there..
oh make sure you slow down between Goleta and santa maria....especially before grade into SM...
your welcome
Vancouver is the text book case study in boom-bust real estate cycles. Early 80's bust, early 90's bust, early 2000's downcycle and now a real doozer of a bust up in the works. Desirable location, real land development constraints, substantial migration and a road system designed for a city of 500,000 that is now over 2 mio all make for a boom-bust cycle on roids. Sadly, I need a good real estate crack up so I can afford to move back.
Rob Dawg writes: "Cambria. "
Also the canyons and hills behind Avila Beach.
Some parts of Malibu.
Or even Spanish Hills in your nabe...
A breeze off the ocean is important.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 4:57 pm | #
Damn, I'm not the secret squirrel I thought I'd be.
Hillside Malibu is still outrageous.
"Spanish Hills" is no place I'd like to live for any price. I'd feel like a diorama at the museum. I live a whopping 1/2 mile away from Spanish Hills and I can tell you their weather comparatively sucks. Different sides of the hill and those all important ocean breezes.
"but the same exist with HOAs which are very popular in America for newer SFHs)"
===
Where DON'T they exist in suburbia, or planned developments.
Property taxes kill you no matter if you live in a community or not.
"Lemme guess: Cuz it's different there."
no, because those prices would be from the 1960s.
"Where's the rent decline and overbuilding of Condo everyone's talking about?"
Just b/c your landlord asks for higher rent doesn't mean you pay it. Ever heard of negotiation?
I'm of the opinion that any mention of the Olympics is an excuse, the home price boom is much larger the the winter olympics
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 4:53 pm | #
I'm of the opinion that the Olympics were a happy accident and an accelerant for the building boom. Any idea could and did get financed from the rationalization of "the Olympics are coming."
2010 springtime will be a helluva hangover up there.
For those interested:
Tell Congress to Do What's Right: No More Bailouts
right.org
Jeebus, you CA people just love talkin real estate. You are all sick and don't even know it.
"No. Simpler than that. Vancouver is Seattle/Portland/Boston. That isn't a bad thing but it is a second tier thing. Hosting an increasingly less relevant winter sports conclave at extreme expense won't change that. "
Vancouver is a first tier city for Canada. There is a big draw for Asians; close to Asia, good business climate, housing is "cheap" compared to Hong Kong.
Ditto on the Olympics. And housing is still gonna get hosed, way, way out of wack.
Long-term though there is a definite draw to Vancouver that hould continue.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Rob Dawg,
What are you saying is the same?
That the Olympics caused a condo boom?
Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
"you CA people just love talkin real estate."
this from a resident of fairfax county?
everything about that county would fit right into california in almost every way that counts, traffic, housing cost, etc - except the crappy weather, of course.
Phew. Got to break out the Green paint today despite O'Drama showing his mug.
Tomorrow.
better than gold
marry a smoker
Fla. smoker widow gets $8 million damages
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
hmmm gold digger
or grave digger...
Re: Condos ... the issue is appropriate density. Very little density can work well because few services are needed and infrastructure needs are modest, and relatively high density can work well because needed services can be afforded.
The problem is in between, density high enough to require services and infrastructure but too low to allow them to be provided in any practical way. In those circumstances, people are forced into their cars so they drive to large parking lots on the edge. I live in suburbia with brutal traffic and no services accessible except by car.
That the Olympics caused a condo boom?
Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
reptillian | 02.18.09 - 5:05 pm | #
What about Sarajevo?
Don't Cry for Me Tehachapi | 02.18.09 - 5:06 pm
So, whats your point? Other than being right.
"All financial stocks must go to zero. How else to realize that free BK and FDIC money?"
it is not happening, cause banks will use TARP to become their own largest shareholders. it is not happening unless they go bancrupt/FDIC snack first.
that's actually what has been happening with the Chinese bail out. (and you thought we have it the worst)
A breeze off the ocean is important.
Try Guadalupe. The breeze there will sandblast pretty patterns into your glasses.
scone,
as joe shmoe said in my defense, that's a planning problem. Condos are just a category of housing (I dislike the general idea of a strata, but the same exist with HOAs which are very popular in America for newer SFHs)
Set height/density limits. Developers hate it, but it fosters more organic growth. Make developers pay for new amenities like parks if they want to build a new building (it's win-win because the new park boosts the value of the developer's then approved building)
EvilHenryPaulson
.
All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments. And now we have a glut of condos on the market, several big projects in foreclosure. Trust me, condos are somewhat worse than a cheap tract house, but packed together like cells in a beehive. They are a different species, and when a condo project goes bad, the effects are like the worst parts of the Inland Empire-- concentrated.
You can fool all of the people some of the time;
you can fool some of the people all of the time;
and that should be enough for most purposes.-- Tom Weller
New post, new post !!!!
Ahhh, condos.
Maintenance not paid. Water bill not paid. One water connection only so you can't pay your own.
In my opinion nosy old ladies who run the board of directors are absolutely necessary, 'cause otherwise everybody runs hog wild.
I have heard otherwise sane people say, why do I have pay for the roof, the roof is 10 stories above me. They weren't joking.
And, no, I'd never live in one.
And ya know, all the towers built here could hardly be supported by the road schools and parks that exist. But that's ok, but nobody's gonna live in them anyway.
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"Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
reptillian"
I think that is bad timing more than Olympic caused collapse. Kind of like having sex with a woman, and then she dies in a fiery blimp crash. I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
scone writes:
"All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments."
We have similar draconian laws, maybe even as strict or even more so. They end up making things worse. Urban planning as practiced around here is a bad joke.
Vancouver=Beijing Winter Olympics
Didn't think that was a coincidence did ya?
Ciao
MS
The Treasury needs to bite the bullet, or maybe put an adult in charge and do a cleaning on The Banking System.
How many years will this go on if something drastic is not done like Nationalzation + Responsibility. We now have dumb and dumber in charge and no one in the leadership want's to admit it.
wow what are the odds of trying to do a practical "new post" joke and new post actually appearing at the same time.
LoL am I good or what?!?
All of the mitigation strategies you mention have been in place in many urban areas for years, but they haven't helped. Portland has some of the strictest development rules in the country, plus draconian land use laws, but it hasn't helped mitigate the effects of crowding in condo developments.
Scone, you can't fight a culture in severe decline. Not with all the "measures" in the world.
The extent to which one holds fiat currency is the extent to which he lends his strength to a state which may not have his best interest in mind.
"Row well, number 29, row well, and live."
Wish to become a freeman? Repudiate the system of your bondage. Gold! Gold. Gold
Otherwise bend your back to the taskmaster and prepare to be ruled over with harsh rigour. The power of you and your benighted comrades are appropriated for the needs of the state...for the needs of the fleet.
"I said no water for him" He may not drink from the living well.
YouTube -
" Elvis writes:
"Look at China. Once the olympics were done, everything went to crap.
reptillian"
I think that is bad timing more than Olympic caused collapse. Kind of like having sex with a woman, and then she dies in a fiery blimp crash. I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 5:10 pm | # "
I know this thread is gone but... that really made me laugh. And very little does. Thanks.
LOL at all the gold bugs who only pop out of the woodwork when it gets bubbly.
Where were all these amazing gold quotes last quarter when the shiny metal rode the wave down to $750?
I am not saying it doesn't have value or a place in your investment portfolio. But coming on here and giving it the old "Rah Rah" is like posting on a sports blog about your amazing Steelers the day after they won the Superbowl...
Hmmm are there any numbers on the number of new sub divisions that are being developed? All I see in Indianapolis are new houses being built on the land that has been developed. Now that is a number I would like to see.
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my
first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I
will keep visiting this blog very often.
Miriam
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