Maybe, looking at that graph, it is just going back to the level it should be at...
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 5:15 pm | #
Sounds reasonable. Revert to the median, right? Except nobody knows where that number should be. Also, I think of these shipping numbers like a car accelerating or breaking (deceleration). The numbers were at highway speeds and now were in a small-town speed trap. It's gonna take awhile to get back up to speed. In the meantime : hard times.
If you listened to him you'd be broke 3X over by now.
Ciao MS MS | 02.18.09 - 5:24 pm | # ------------------------------------------------------- Or 9x if you listened to him using the triple leveraged ETFs.
girlbear writes:
FWIW from dead thread
- Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's. It is the majority finish (since lead free initiative killed solder finish) on all pads on all boards. ENIG= Electroless nickel gold and it is the standard finish (silver is second) on most circuit boards. As far as Evil Paulsons data on >1% of PCB's for space, that is a very low use for them. I am no expert but have been in PCB manufacturing for a very long time.......
girlbear | 02.18.09 - 3:44 pm | #
Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix has commendably taken a strong stance against the USO ETF fund over the last few weeks, or rather, exposed to what degree the fund’s market inexperience is causing all sorts of mayhem for the WTI contract. All of this, he says, is because the fund has now achieved ‘’critical mass’.
Today we see the Japanese Yen climbing with respect to the dollar, yet U.S. equities down today. This is very counter-trend, i.e., a rising Yen used to bode well for U.S. equities.
lawyerliz writes:
Rotting cars as well as houses? Car folk out there, how long does a car have to sit, not run and exposed to elements, before it rots?
How long do tires last before they rot?
lawyerliz
.
N.A. They get stolen.
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from? Are they calculating it based on the futures at the close of day, which were significantly lower than the final market resting place?
Since the futures number of 778 is lower than market close, can I assume that the market would open considerably lower tomorrow unless things change overnight?
The fair value calculation they are using is based off of last night's calculation, so I can see why that number would be bogus.
lawyerliz writes:
"Rotting cars as well as houses? Car folk out there, how long does a car have to sit, not run and exposed to elements, before it rots?"
Stored close to the ocean, as they are, a couple of years. If they moved them to the high desert, the metal would at least last longer. The tires and interior materials, not so much.
Bargains are on the way - soon, before the merchandise turns to scrap.
OK, here is the China Russia deal per Bloomberg (appears not to be a VPP or forward sale of reserves - don't divide loan amount by volume to get price):
PetroChina, Sinopec to Gain From Russia Oil Agreement (Update2)
By Winnie Zhu and Wang Ying
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nationÂ’s biggest oil producers, will benefit from ChinaÂ’s push to gain resources as the credit crisis prompts countries such as Russia to sell energy assets, said analysts.
Under the oil-for-loans agreement signed yesterday, the two companies will gain access to Russian oil at about $20 a barrel, said Wang Aochao, the Shanghai-based research director at UOB- Kay Hian Ltd. Oil in New York is trading below $35 a barrel. PetroChina, Sinopec to Gain From Russia Oil Agreement (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's. girlbear | 02.18.09 - 5:29 pm | #
Thus proving once again that any expertise I once had has since been outmoded. And I can't even get a first on here anymore, dammit. May have to teach myself Perl and look into those Blogger API's...
"Stored close to the ocean, as they are, a couple of years. If they moved them to the high desert, the metal would at least last longer. The tires and interior materials, not so much."
Yup.... there's a giant field in arizona (or somewhere similar) where the air force keeps a ton of old planes for parts and other uses
How long does it take for air to slllooowly leak out of thousands of tires? Doesn't gas turn to gunk after a certain time?
lawyerliz
.
Air leaks out pretty fast, but gas evaporates, generally. But again, the cars would be sold or parted out, the gas can easily be siphoned, etc. They wouldn't just be sitting there going to waste, there's a long-standing industry that pretty much recycles almost anything you can think of. And car auctions are HOT-- we sold our old Acura Integra, with over 550,000 miles on it, to an auction house (for a charity writeoff) and damn if that thing didn't pull over $2000.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from?
Right now, at 778.25, I think it is down relative to the end of today's "regular hours" session.
The current quote on S&P 500 is 783.92, which indicates that there is some after-hours selling happening. But, yes, the futures are, at the moment, below "fair value."
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- California Senate RepublicansÂ’ ouster of their leader for negotiating a budget agreement with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrats posed new challenges to a deal to close the stateÂ’s $42 billion shortfall.
The new Senate Republican minority leader Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said $14 billion in tax increases included in the budget package must be removed and negotiations over how to fix the deficit reopened. The Republican caucus voted behind closed doors late last night to remove Dave Cogdill of Modesto, who negotiated the agreement and unsuccessfully sought to rally support for it within his party. California Senate Republicans Oust Leader Over Budget (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Dust Bowling for Dollars writes:
there's a giant field in arizona
LarryKudlow-Assclown
There is a commercial "air-park", closer to Tucson than Tempe. The air force base in Tucson, Davis Mona-something, has quite a boneyard of old military aircraft.
The extent to which one holds fiat currency is the extent to which he lends his strength to a state which may not have his best interest in mind.
"Row well, number 29, row well, and live."
Wish to become a freeman? Repudiate the system of your bondage. Gold! Gold. Gold
Otherwise bend your back to the taskmaster and prepare to be ruled over with harsh rigour. The power of you and your benighted comrades are appropriated for the needs of the state...for the needs of the fleet.
"I said no water for him" He may not drink from the living well. YouTube -
China is moving shrewdly and aggressively to buy up valuable commodities on the cheap. They are doing this in Australia with Rio, in Russia, in Africa and soon in Venezuela and Bolivia. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to horn in on the Arctic deep water oil reserves by doing a deal with Denmark or Norway.
But what China needs most of all is guaranteed supplies of basic foods. For that, they might have to look to Brazil and Argentina.
This is hoarding on a big, big scale.
Collapse phase 2. Coming soon to a commodity near you.
Some things, Communists do better.
Like buying strategic commodities and executing business rats.
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from? Are they calculating it based on the futures at the close of day, which were significantly lower than the final market resting place?
Since the futures number of 778 is lower than market close, can I assume that the market would open considerably lower tomorrow unless things change overnight?
The fair value calculation they are using is based off of last night's calculation, so I can see why that number would be bogus. Gavshire Hathaway | 02.18.09 - 5:44 pm | #
The change is from where the futures closed at 4:15pm. The futures continued to fall after the stocks closed at 4pm. That's "closing in the hole".
The fair value calculation (for which you need dividend and interest assumptions) won't change much day-to-day, so I don't know what your last sentence means.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
@Reptilian: All of the quotes I see for S&P 500 is that it closed at 788.42
Where are you pulling your current quote? CNN Money is obviously using 779.5 as their starting point.
I see the S&P 500 cash index at 783.86, which comes from CBOE via Interactive Brokers. The S&P 500 futures, closed now for a few minutes, were last at 778.25. At closing time, the S&P cash index did close at about 788.42, but selling continues in the after hours.
I once saw huge mountains of empty containers from the train in New Jersey. Should be even bigger mountains near Long Beach. Find them on Google Earth.
Thanks Eric & Reptillian! So I can look at the nominal value of the futures relative to the index close as a directional indicator for tomorrow's action. Subject to adjustment when fair value is calculated tonight...
The s&p futures declined 1.5 between 3:15 CST and 4:30CST which is the first trading session of Thursday. Gotta go-must get ready for the 5:00CST reopening
by the way, it's quite a good ole Texas ass-whoopin, this haircut Ed Mtn View mentions.
5% pay cuts Suspension of ESPP Wipeout of 401k match, with some pie-in-the-sky promise of paying out the match (at the expense of annual bonus) if we hit our performance targets.
Thanks Eric & Reptillian! So I can look at the nominal value of the futures relative to the index close as a directional indicator for tomorrow's action. Subject to adjustment when fair value is calculated tonight... Gavshire Hathaway | 02.18.09 - 6:04 pm | #
Again, that "fair value" number shouldn't change much day-to-day. It's based on expected dividends and interest, and tends to decay towards zero (although it can be positive or negative) as the future expiration date approaches. You should be able to find out what the current values are online somewhere.
Geoff - where is Scatman Cruth writes:
Last few days of news...just nonstop pain. Not sure I can read anymore.
Geoff - where is Scatman Cruth | 02.18.09 - 6:11 pm | #
Just watching the German English language news. Interviews of people in Sweden, Germany and UK re the coming collapse of GM which will probably finish off Saab, Opel and Vauxhall. Most lamented letting GM take over their car companies and blamed the US for the mess. All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world. Tanks a lot to Bush and his cronies, etc. and all the rest of the idiots.
If they were such hot products they would survive with out GM. Chrysler was profitable till Daimler took them over. Should we hate the Germans or call it even?
Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
In the 80s, I did some work in Germany -- W. Germany. One day we had lunch with some people from one of the Benelux countries and when I praised Reagan -- my! how times change -- they all claimed that he was nothing but an actor.
Why yes I do...Unfortunately it's on a not so popular album.
.
You're kidding. "Them or Us" is my favorite Zappa album. The cover of "Whippin' Post" is the best.
Only 8 years? You must be an optimist. I'm guessing we go back to early 1990 levels before this is over. briwerk | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 6:10 pm | #
Perhaps, but that's not what I've heard. One might speculate that the dot-com boom was yet another bubble with a lot of phony growth, but still, one would think that somebody did some work over the last 12 years. I've been working, and none of it had to do with markets, finance, credit, et al.
The Fed minutes and forecasts indicated that officials are aiming to move public expectations at a 2 percent rate. Policy makers estimated long-term economic growth at 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent and an unemployment rate at 4.8 percent to 5 percent.
The Fed announced last week that it may expand a program aimed at supporting consumer loans to $1 trillion from $200 billion, aiding Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in the government’s revised financial-rescue plan. The Fed plans to start the program “any day now,” Bernanke said in response to an audience question.
The Fed is also buying $600 billion of debt sold by government-backed mortgage finance companies and mortgage-backed securities they guarantee.
"In the 80s, I did some work in Germany -- W. Germany. One day we had lunch with some people from one of the Benelux countries and when I praised Reagan -- my! how times change -- they all claimed that he was nothing but an actor."
Oh he was more than an actor.. all this bullshit started under his watch
"supply-side" economics is the biggest scam ever....
"Perhaps, but that's not what I've heard. One might speculate that the dot-com boom was yet another bubble with a lot of phony growth, but still, one would think that somebody did some work over the last 12 years. I've been working, and none of it had to do with markets, finance, credit, et al."
The dot-com boom did actually have some real stuff behind it... in fact software is probably the last real industry that the US still really dominates
Oh he was more than an actor.. all this bullshit started under his watch LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:24 pm | #
Despite the constant repeating contrary to the fact, the S&L problems originated under Carter, and fundamentally as a result of Volker's doings at the Fed. If you bypass the fluff and look at the facts, you'll see that this is true. This is not to say the Reagan didn't make it worse by deregulating, and suggesting that the S&Ls "grow" their way out of the problem. Just statin' the facts.
From my CR opus - American Apocalypse. The latest look at your future. Yes! I am looking at you.
Somewhere in there I remember looking up at Regina. Maybe I thought she would help me. One look at her face dissuaded me of that. She was enjoying watching them kick the crap out of me. I do remember grabbing a leg, giving it a nice tug, and hearing someone fall into the Weber that was cooking the squirrels. I may have imagined it, or it may be wishful thinking, but I am sure I heard a scream. Who knows, it might have been me. Somewhere in there I blacked out. I came to for a few seconds as I was being dragged feet first down a path. I think I heard old guy bitching about how heavy I was. I remember my feet dropping to ground when they let go of them. That hurt. Then someone gave me a good-bye kick and I was alone.
The dot-com boom did actually have some real stuff behind it... in fact software is probably the last real industry that the US still really dominates LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:25 pm | #
Likewise, the investment in IS also boosted worker productivity. However, a lot a venture capital "whooshed" down the drain at that time. I remember one of our engineers who left to go to a Dot-Com startup coming to visit and mentioning that his company was in the "cash burn phase" of its development. I liken that to the use of pillage and plunder in your resume. There's never a right time
"Despite the constant repeating contrary to the fact, the S&L problems originated under Carter, and fundamentally as a result of Volker's doings at the Fed. If you bypass the fluff and look at the facts, you'll see that this is true.
This is not to say the Reagan didn't make it worse by deregulating, and suggesting that the S&Ls "grow" their way out of the problem. Just statin' the facts."
Who said anything about savings and loans? I was talking about spending way more than you take in and running up massive deficits/debt.....
Not to mention massive redistribution of wealth/income to the very rich
"Likewise, the investment in IS also boosted worker productivity. However, a lot a venture capital "whooshed" down the drain at that time. I remember one of our engineers who left to go to a Dot-Com startup coming to visit and mentioning that his company was in the "cash burn phase" of its development. I liken that to the use of pillage and plunder in your resume. There's never a right time ;-)"
Agreed... there was plenty of BS there also... basically everyone's goal was to get some sucker company to buy their BS startup...
Who said anything about savings and loans? I was talking about spending way more than you take in and running up massive deficits/debt..... LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:31 pm | #
There's a good argument to be made that loose credit that's been around since really the mid Clinton years was the cause of our immediate crisis as well as the intermediate dot-com bubble, and that situation was, in part, to deal with the fallout of the S&L crisis that came to a head under GHWB, and that crisis had its roots in the Carter years. If one really wants to stretch it, one could even argue that Volker wouldn't have had to drive interest rates to 18-20% if Nixon hadn't resorted to price controls, and then there's the whole El Nino wiping out the sardine harvest, but enough is enough;-)
It reads like the worst is yet to come. Some countries, and ports will be really hit. My guess is Hamburg, and some of the North Sea ports are going to very slow.
Source: Pacificshipper.com
Two months into 2009, the best that can be said for the state of the breakbulk and project cargo shipping industry is that it hasnÂ’t been hit as hard as container shipping.
Energy and infrastructure projects from Alberta, Canada, to Australia are being canceled or postponed as the global recession drags on with no end in sight. Shipments of commodities and some breakbulk cargoes have fallen off dramatically while heavy-lift shipments are holding firm, at least for the time being. Accordingly, rates are plummeting in some trade lanes and holding steady in others.
One possible scenario is that there will be a significant amount of breakbulk and project cargo with a gradual falloff beginning in the second and third quarters of 2009. While rates for most breakbulk and heavy-lift cargo are staying relatively firm, they have fallen off in some areas and are likely to fall more broadly in 2009
There's a good argument to be made that loose credit that's been around since really the mid Clinton years was the cause of our immediate crisis as well as the intermediate dot-com bubble, and that situation was, in part, to deal with the fallout of the S&L crisis that came to a head under GHWB, and that crisis had its roots in the Carter years. If one really wants to stretch it, one could even argue that Volker wouldn't have had to drive interest rates to 18-20% if Nixon hadn't resorted to price controls, and then there's the whole El Nino wiping out the sardine harvest, but enough is enough;-)"
Good points... .and I don't mean to be partisan.. clinton may have at least known how to balance a checkbook.. but that clown sold us out to china among other things
And really.. we should blame ourselves... as a people we have generallly decided that we can cut taxes and not cut spending or even increase spending... .. and the bill is now coming due
When I switched from dial-up to broadband my wife told RCN by phone to cut off the dial-up connection. They didn't do it, and continued to charge us, and since the bill for her dial-up was bundled together with my bill, when she added it up just a while ago we had been overcharged by about $260. They claim they were never informed of the change and refuse to refund more than $13.
Just today there was a 'glitch' (their term) that cut off my email. We phoned three times to someplace in Bangalore - my guess - and each time got a different story - for instance whether or not my password was operative. Email is still not on, though I was told it would work now.
I'm beginning to wonder if customer service actually means anything to American companies - it seems to mean customer exploitation.
Extrapolate to the auto industry? Banking? Investment?
To big too fail also seems to mean to big to give a damn.
We know small to medium businesses around here that don't treat people that way.
We're going to switch providers, with the faint hope that there's someone better out there. Is there?
Not to mention massive redistribution of wealth/income to the very rich LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:31 pm | #
Despite being a conservative, I mentioned yesterday or the day before that it seems as though these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich, e.g. the railroad boom, the roaring 20, the last generation or so. As such, I'm for the moment forced to agree with you. Of course, one could make an argument that this dates back to Jack Kennedy's tax cuts.......... LOL
I read a German news site during Obamas big visit during the campaigning. Most of the reviews were not pretty. None of this was portrayed in the US media.
"Despite being a conservative, I mentioned yesterday or the day before that it seems as though these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich, e.g. the railroad boom, the roaring 20, the last generation or so. As such, I'm for the moment forced to agree with you. Of course, one could make an argument that this dates back to Jack Kennedy's tax cuts.......... LOL"
I guess it depends on whether you are a REAL conservative or the current brand of facist that pretends they are a conservative..... they are very different things.
I hardly consider bush/reagan/etc conservatives... .
Real conservatives actually have some very good ideas and are vital when it comes to helping the govt practice some restraint.. unfortunately I have seen very few real conservatives (or real liberals for that matter) in our govt in some time.
everyone these days is just a different brand of corporatist
Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
No, The dirty word will be USD.
reptilian,
I have tracked Vancouver real estate since the recent boom started in 2003. One of the earliest things I drew upon to educate friends & family was that the olympics was a sham excuse. Looked at cities going back to LA's summer, but the most poignant example was Sydney's bubble. I'm not a schlub saying they will do anything positive for real estate. My point was that condos/apartments are not bad in themselves, although they may be symbolic of problems that follow them in areas with imprudent planning. You're not paying any attention to what I said, just dogpiling off of Rob Dawg's misdirected comments.
Rob Dawg,
The one good thing about the olympics was that it forced the Federal government to spend a few hundred million dollars that never ever happens out west, but eastern regions take for granted. As for any kind of international marketing/branding, there's better value ways of doing it. I'm not aware of any hope for "urban renewal" locally that you assume follows any olympics.
There's a housing bust to happen, 3/4s of new jobs in the province since 2003 have been in construction and a lot of other jobs like in restaurants will be sucked down along with them. It's not like anyone can stop it from happening, people will have to adjust. It would be cool if government encouraged the building of some office space now that condos no longer reign supreme, even soften the blow on construction employment.
girlbear,
I didn't say >1% of annual gold production was used in electronics. I said >1% was used for electronics in space. Because of the temperature, the variations thereof, and radiation bombardment gold is great for use in satellites.
Also if you are using the argument of lead free solder as bullish for gold, and I must admit I don't keep tabs on commercial PCB manufacturing, keep in mind that once transitioned the impact is not so large due to recycling. I appreciated your information, but the truth is I never spoke to electronics in general. Space is special
I read a German news site during Obamas big visit during the campaigning. Most of the reviews were not pretty. None of this was portrayed in the US media. Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 02.18.09 - 6:45 pm | #
I was in Germany in the early '80s. The old folks seemed to like us soldiers, and sometimes on manuvers, they'd come out and tell about battles that had taken place during WWII. Of course, we were just a few kliks from the border near Fulda Gap, and these folks new what could have been, and were glad they were on this side of the border. However, even then, the young kids (16-24) didn't care for us, and it was also about that time that the German Govt. was removing information about hitler and the Holocost from childrens text books. Lots of Americans (that I knew) were concerned about this, and thought the old German attitudes would resurface. They have, and believe me they were already popping up when I visited Munich in 2000, before the election. You can't blame that on GWB. Beyond that, screw the media. You can't believe anything that comes out of the MSM anymore.
My wife's company is about to announce 100% pay cuts for 100% of the employees.
Whomever talked about tech being a sink-hole for dollars hasn't seen biotechs. Most of them never get out of the red. Pissed off in California | 02.18.09 - 6:49 pm | #
Please don't take this wrong. I want all your your stuff. You got sequencers? Fractionators? NMRs? Give me a call.
My company (financial services) said below 7500 means more layoffs. This morning I was looking at a pink-slip, then this afternoon it was rescinded, now tomorrow it's on again (:
After the hoarding, the demand will tank. That is your premise, right?
Of course not. Hoarding means a feeling of needing to have more of a necessity at hand.
Most people have, at most, a week or so worth of food in their houses. In a hoarding world, you decide you need 2-3 weeks worth. So, you stock up. Then, you have to maintain 2-3 weeks' worth or you will feel vulnerable.
So, you (one person) only need to stock up once and then maintain. But it's a wave that rolls around the world. The stocking up can last for years.
I'm shocked that a smart person like you don't understand the basics of Hoarding 101.
Real conservatives actually have some very good ideas and are vital when it comes to helping the govt practice some restraint.. LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:45 pm | #
My Dad and I are Goldwater/Buckley conservatives. You probably don't like that either. BTW, my Dad detests GWB, and didn't like his father much either.
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Then the poor have a revolution. Some charismatic nutjob gets them off their asses and into uniforms and life takes a turn for the worse. nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 6:46 pm | #
I'm really too old for that crap I actually had dreams of retiring less than a year ago. LOL and crying at the same time;-)
Hoopajoops LTD writes:
Here's a stupid question that hopefully someone can answer.
Why, if the dow closed at 7555, does the futures listing on bloomberg open at 7500?
Also, now that interest rates are so low, the futures "premium" is negative. That is because the "premium" amounts to the interest cost of carrying the basket of stocks minus the expected dividends.
"My Dad and I are Goldwater/Buckley conservatives. You probably don't like that either. BTW, my Dad detests GWB, and didn't like his father much either."
Actually no.. that sounds like real conservatism.
FYI one of my favorite presidents in eisenhower.
Ron Paul has a screw loose on some subjects.. but he's right about our foreign policy and the fed.
xxxxx,
aah yes, "leaky condos". An ongoing problem. I expect there to be another surge in shoddy building to begin arising in a few years once the 2-5-10 year warranties run out, and condo stratas have deferred/underinvested in maintenance. Word is inspectors couldn't even hope to keep pace, and there were a lot of new workers who hadn't learned their lessons yet. The last leaky condo boom was also in part because of a national building code written by dorks that live a few thousand klicks away and don't understand the climate
FYI one of my favorite presidents in eisenhower. LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:58 pm | #
Not exactly a conservative, but more so than Nixon. I often hear Libs/Dems praising Kennedy, and I have to remind them that HE was the conservative choice in that election. ROFL. I'm easily amused;-)
W>homever talked about tech being a sink-hole for dollars hasn't seen biotechs. Most of them never get out of the red.
Rothstein Kass, the CPA firm, just published a very good study stating that biotech is in big trouble due to funding sources drying up.
To find it, search for Rothstein Kass and "Plumbing the Depths"
-- Biotechnology companies are almost universally in accord that current economic conditions will make it harder to raise money. Nearly 99 percent of November participants agreed, compared with just under 90 percent in September
-- In both the September and November surveys, roughly three-quarters of respondents predicted that there would be fewer biotechnology start-ups in 2009
-- Over 90 percent of firms in September and above 96 percent of November participants indicated that government sources of funding to the
industry will diminish
This comes at a time when Big Pharma pipelines are running dry, and normally there would be a lot of cash thrown at semi-successful biotechs. Now, better to let the pipeline run dry than throw money away.
reptillian,
It's just the first loss tranche of housing. Not fundamentally different from apartments which are hundreds of years old.
I just used my city as an example of where they, save for the price, are not at all undesirable to live relative to townhomes/basement suites/duplexes/SFH.
You were dog piling about the olympic comments which as far as I can tell only source back to Rob Dawg's suggestion that after the olympics condos will become undesirable compared to all other tranches of housing in the city. You even had a post that went on about maintenance and taxes after I mentioned strata fees as a negative. If you didn't realize strata fees are what pays for those things, I can only assume you have a very limited familiarity with condos in general.
In Phase 2, Commercial Collapse, "faith that the market shall provide is lost. Commodities are hoarded. Import and retail chains break down. Widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm."
We have been through phase 1, Financial Collapse, and are entering phase 2. But only the Chinese can see it.
If Obama could see it, he would tell people to start hoarding.
You can't believe anything that comes out of the MSM anymore.
xxxxx | 02.18.09 - 6:52 pm |
I stumble on to reading Speigal online and found a lot of info and different look at things in the world. Any of the US media seems to be biased beyond belief.
"Pissed off in California,
Am I reading that right?
If the Dow goes below 7500 your company will lay off more?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 7:00 pm | # "
EHP,
I don't think that 7500 is a hard and fast level. But I'm sure they're aware that a real break below 7500 is open air for atleast another 1000 points and indicates absolutely no recovery in the markets this year.
If that happens revenues at our company will be hit even harder. I'm preparing for more layoffs.
reptilian,
's cool mate. I'm just stubborn when it comes to resolving little differences until they are a matter of opinion
Pissed Off In California,
Well you have prepared yourself more than anyone. I wish you the best, but if you do find yourself with some spare time. Write a book, you have the bird's eye perspective on some stories you just can't make up
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
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How much of this decline is the collapse of scrap paper and metal prices? Recycled baled cardboard that used to fill a lot of those outbound containers to China was selling for $0 until very recently. Same for scrap metal.
Just fill those empty containers piling up in LA with US jobs and ship them overseas. Don't forget to supply water to the jobholders. And a portapotty.
This will reduce unemployment, saving money. And other saluatory effects.
Smoot-Hawley's revenge
Make it stop, please!
3 rd
podium!
ooh?
Hits keep comi
SHIP IT GOOD
o way
But, but the little red line was just getting started!
urgh
Stronger dollar won't help as other countries devalue their currency. F&ck you, G.I.
Depression.
We were all fooled by haloscan! God! I hate it...i hate it...
Minor point of clarification regards "LA Area." This refers to the ports of LA and Long Beach and does not include the Port of Hueneme.
What happens to the empty containers coming in that are in excess of those going out? Are they shipped back empty?
Hope this makes OC homes cheaper.
Maybe, looking at that graph, it is just going back to the level it should be at...
Bring back Fordney-McCumber tariffs. Proper moderate level of tariffs leads to unprecedented prosperity!!!
test
Row, row, row your barge, gently to the scrap heep.
Merrily merrily merrily, your LOC is but a dream.
or something.
Nostrovia,
Only thing we be exportin' is treasuries dog
Gold-haters crying in their beer. Goldbugs ready for the next leg up.
Maybe, looking at that graph, it is just going back to the level it should be at...
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 5:15 pm | #
Sounds reasonable. Revert to the median, right? Except nobody knows where that number should be. Also, I think of these shipping numbers like a car accelerating or breaking (deceleration). The numbers were at highway speeds and now were in a small-town speed trap. It's gonna take awhile to get back up to speed. In the meantime : hard times.
Fewer cars being imported to sit uselessly in huge lots? Car prices to slide drastically?
Oh glod Dick Bove on now. Had to leave Ladenburg...
Elvis writes:
I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 5:10 pm | #
Elvis you are still the king.....of comedy.
Export bubble popped. That is a mighty flat line between 95 and 05, aside from the blip down in 01. More of the collapse of world trade story.
Nothing to worry about. Do you know how many iPods fit in a cargo container?
An optimist might say, "we've hit 'support' at 500000 containers/month."
What gold at?
I would hope your sexual prowlness didn't have a connection with the blimp exploding.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 5:10 pm | #
(Paul Harvey voice) : And the name of his dong...was....Hindenberg.
Is Art vandelay factored into these numbers?
So maybe it wasn't Smoot Hawley, as I wuz taught?
ew post, new post !!!
breaking news on UBS
Already?
Post inflation!!
got you !
Just build houses out of 'em...
BLDGBLOG: Container Home Kit
Oh wait we sort of have a problem with housing don't we?....
Ciao
MS
Nemo,
"Do you know how many iPods fit in a cargo container?"
Nope, not in Mandarin, anyway.
Nostrovia,
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Baltic has bottomed.
Bove shilling the big banks. Scumbag.
No new post I see.
MS,
"Oh wait we sort of have a problem with housing don't we?"
That there is 'fordible housin'. Look better'n that fallin' 'part fifth wheel we're stackin' the pups in these days.
Nostrovia,
When doesn't Dick Bove shill?
If you listened to him you'd be broke 3X over by now.
Ciao
MS
Looks like a posterior to me.
Maybe, looking at that graph, it is just going back to the level it should be at...
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 5:15 pm | #
I think the trajectory might be an issue. As might the overshoot.
If you listened to him you'd be broke 3X over by now.
Ciao
MS
MS | 02.18.09 - 5:24 pm | #
-------------------------------------------------------
Or 9x if you listened to him using the triple leveraged ETFs.
Democrat's proposal:
SEC. 4475. TAX ON SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS.
Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009
Is Bove pumping another geratric, oops generational bank buy?
Anonymous writes:
Democrat's proposal:
SEC. 4475. TAX ON SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS.
I support that, as well as an increase of the FICA ceiling and an increase in federal income taxes. I will pay more, but so what?
Dick Bove on Bloomberg puts yet another buy on banks stocks.
I'm sure that others have opined on this, but I'm sure that 3 points up was hard fought for.
Meanwhile, I wonder if any of the stock genius have re-written the parameters on their computers as to when to sell and when to buy.
Gav.. not 9x.. as per Jim Cramer's rant.. the double and triple stuff ETF's are not perfect mirrors of the indices... and should be banned..
girlbear writes:
FWIW from dead thread
- Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's. It is the majority finish (since lead free initiative killed solder finish) on all pads on all boards. ENIG= Electroless nickel gold and it is the standard finish (silver is second) on most circuit boards. As far as Evil Paulsons data on >1% of PCB's for space, that is a very low use for them. I am no expert but have been in PCB manufacturing for a very long time.......
girlbear | 02.18.09 - 3:44 pm | #
Not sure if this has been posted:
A ‘cancer’ in the oil markets?
Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix has commendably taken a strong stance against the USO ETF fund over the last few weeks, or rather, exposed to what degree the fund’s market inexperience is causing all sorts of mayhem for the WTI contract. All of this, he says, is because the fund has now achieved ‘’critical mass’.
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » A ‘cancer’ in the oil markets?
It might revert to the median eventually, after it overshoots by a large margin.
Dick Bove on Bloomberg puts yet another buy on banks stocks.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 5:28 pm | #
A generational buy? Or maybe a second-generational buy?
They don't call him 'Dick' for nuttin'...
cd
Bove impressed with Ben and Hank!
lawyerliz writes:
I'm sure that others have opined on this, but I'm sure that 3 points up was hard fought for.
Meanwhile, I wonder if any of the stock genius have re-written the parameters on their computers as to when to sell and when to buy.
Sell until the banks are pre-privatized.
UBS to settle US claims on tax cases:
UBS Said to Pay $780 Million to Settle U.S. Tax Investigation - Bloomberg.com
wonder if they will pay the $780 million in stock?
;p
That red line scares me alot more than that blue one... If the dollar keeps going up its going to keep falling....
....................
Today we see the Japanese Yen climbing with respect to the dollar, yet U.S. equities down today. This is very counter-trend, i.e., a rising Yen used to bode well for U.S. equities.
"Car prices to slide drastically?
lawyerliz | 02.18.09 - 5:18 pm | #"
When does the scrap value of a new car sitting in a port lot exceed its value as a transportation device?
Gold closed at 983.50$ a zipper. Thats a hell of a run in the last week...
........................
OMFG, I had better run my money out of UBS before somebody spills the....
*loud banging on front door
"SEC. 4475. TAX ON SECURITIES TRANSACTIONS.
I support that, as well as an increase of the FICA ceiling and an increase in federal income taxes. I will pay more, but so what?"
Yup.....if you include payroll taxes the tax burden falls heavily on those who make the least
While the super rich pay less in percentage than I do.
A lot of these metrics are telling the same story: economy drops back to about 2002. Or thereabouts. I hope.
Rotting cars as well as houses? Car folk out there, how long does a car have to sit, not run and exposed to elements, before it rots?
How long do tires last before they rot?
"When does the scrap value of a new car sitting in a port lot exceed its value as a transportation device?"
How much copper is in a new car?
LOL
lawyerliz writes:
Rotting cars as well as houses? Car folk out there, how long does a car have to sit, not run and exposed to elements, before it rots?
How long do tires last before they rot?
lawyerliz
.
N.A. They get stolen.
How long do tires last before they rot?
lawyerliz | 02.18.09 - 5:42 pm | #
the cars would be auctioned off and broken down for spare parts long before that I would imagine.
How long does it take for air to slllooowly leak out of thousands of tires? Doesn't gas turn to gunk after a certain time?
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from? Are they calculating it based on the futures at the close of day, which were significantly lower than the final market resting place?
Since the futures number of 778 is lower than market close, can I assume that the market would open considerably lower tomorrow unless things change overnight?
The fair value calculation they are using is based off of last night's calculation, so I can see why that number would be bogus.
lawyerliz writes:
"Rotting cars as well as houses? Car folk out there, how long does a car have to sit, not run and exposed to elements, before it rots?"
Stored close to the ocean, as they are, a couple of years. If they moved them to the high desert, the metal would at least last longer. The tires and interior materials, not so much.
Bargains are on the way - soon, before the merchandise turns to scrap.
Except for the tires - they go quick if at the contact points if you don't move the car at least 1 or 2x a month.
Hmmm, one visualizes these huge lots with ratty vandalized on the outside, and getting nicer as you get to the inside of the lots.
OK, here is the China Russia deal per Bloomberg (appears not to be a VPP or forward sale of reserves - don't divide loan amount by volume to get price):
PetroChina, Sinopec to Gain From Russia Oil Agreement (Update2)
By Winnie Zhu and Wang Ying
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- PetroChina Co. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nationÂ’s biggest oil producers, will benefit from ChinaÂ’s push to gain resources as the credit crisis prompts countries such as Russia to sell energy assets, said analysts.
Under the oil-for-loans agreement signed yesterday, the two companies will gain access to Russian oil at about $20 a barrel, said Wang Aochao, the Shanghai-based research director at UOB- Kay Hian Ltd. Oil in New York is trading below $35 a barrel.
PetroChina, Sinopec to Gain From Russia Oil Agreement (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
"Bargains are on the way - soon, before the merchandise turns to scrap.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 5:44 pm | #"
true, sell 10% of the new cars at firesale prices, then
keep the rest for spare parts and charge through the roof.
This Act may be cited as the `Let Wall Street Pay for Wall Street's Bailout Act of 2009'
Please.
What if Congress returned all of Wall Street's lobbying money? Wouldn't that also pay-back the bailout?
Gold is not just used for connector fingers on PCB's.
girlbear | 02.18.09 - 5:29 pm | #
Thus proving once again that any expertise I once had has since been outmoded. And I can't even get a first on here anymore, dammit. May have to teach myself Perl and look into those Blogger API's...
Of course the rubber itself...that's a lifetime...
Nostrovia,
"Stored close to the ocean, as they are, a couple of years. If they moved them to the high desert, the metal would at least last longer. The tires and interior materials, not so much."
Yup.... there's a giant field in arizona (or somewhere similar) where the air force keeps a ton of old planes for parts and other uses
Damn. We knew that handle would be too long.
Regretfully,
Slim, Fat & None
there's a giant field in arizona
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 5:47 pm | #
Davis-Monthan AFB. Near Tempe. FYI.
Isn't there a field with commercial planes on it also?
"Davis-Monthan AFB. Near Tempe. FYI.
Dust Bowling for Dollars"
Tucson.
The Magic Man, turns it over...the mustard is off the hot dog:
Curbed NY: No More Magic: Greenpoint's Viridian Goes Up For Sale
Tucson
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 5:49 pm | #
I stand corrected, thank you E.
How long does it take for air to slllooowly leak out of thousands of tires? Doesn't gas turn to gunk after a certain time?
lawyerliz
.
Air leaks out pretty fast, but gas evaporates, generally. But again, the cars would be sold or parted out, the gas can easily be siphoned, etc. They wouldn't just be sitting there going to waste, there's a long-standing industry that pretty much recycles almost anything you can think of. And car auctions are HOT-- we sold our old Acura Integra, with over 550,000 miles on it, to an auction house (for a charity writeoff) and damn if that thing didn't pull over $2000.
........what did you expect?.....explosive increase?.....c'mon now........
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from?
Right now, at 778.25, I think it is down relative to the end of today's "regular hours" session.
The current quote on S&P 500 is 783.92, which indicates that there is some after-hours selling happening. But, yes, the futures are, at the moment, below "fair value."
California Senate Republicans Stage Coup d’état Over Tax Plan
By William Selway and Michael B. Marois
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- California Senate RepublicansÂ’ ouster of their leader for negotiating a budget agreement with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrats posed new challenges to a deal to close the stateÂ’s $42 billion shortfall.
The new Senate Republican minority leader Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta said $14 billion in tax increases included in the budget package must be removed and negotiations over how to fix the deficit reopened. The Republican caucus voted behind closed doors late last night to remove Dave Cogdill of Modesto, who negotiated the agreement and unsuccessfully sought to rally support for it within his party.
California Senate Republicans Oust Leader Over Budget (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Currently listening to the prelude to Act III of Tristan und Isolde. How appropriate. Doom and gloom...
Dust Bowling for Dollars writes:
there's a giant field in arizona
LarryKudlow-Assclown
There is a commercial "air-park", closer to Tucson than Tempe. The air force base in Tucson, Davis Mona-something, has quite a boneyard of old military aircraft.
The extent to which one holds fiat currency is the extent to which he lends his strength to a state which may not have his best interest in mind.
"Row well, number 29, row well, and live."
Wish to become a freeman? Repudiate the system of your bondage. Gold! Gold. Gold
Otherwise bend your back to the taskmaster and prepare to be ruled over with harsh rigour. The power of you and your benighted comrades are appropriated for the needs of the state...for the needs of the fleet.
"I said no water for him" He may not drink from the living well.
YouTube -
China is moving shrewdly and aggressively to buy up valuable commodities on the cheap. They are doing this in Australia with Rio, in Russia, in Africa and soon in Venezuela and Bolivia. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to horn in on the Arctic deep water oil reserves by doing a deal with Denmark or Norway.
But what China needs most of all is guaranteed supplies of basic foods. For that, they might have to look to Brazil and Argentina.
This is hoarding on a big, big scale.
Collapse phase 2. Coming soon to a commodity near you.
Some things, Communists do better.
Like buying strategic commodities and executing business rats.
@Reptilian: All of the quotes I see for S&P 500 is that it closed at 788.42
Where are you pulling your current quote? CNN Money is obviously using 779.5 as their starting point.
My company just announced 5% pay cuts.
Playboy may put itself up for sale.
"Collapse phase 2. Coming soon to a commodity near you."
After the hoarding, the demand will tank. That is your premise, right?
This might be a dumb question, but I'm really curious...
So the S&P futures on CNN Money show a level of 778, which is roughly 10 points lower than where the index closed for the day. But it says the change is only -1.5. What are they calculating the change from? Are they calculating it based on the futures at the close of day, which were significantly lower than the final market resting place?
Since the futures number of 778 is lower than market close, can I assume that the market would open considerably lower tomorrow unless things change overnight?
The fair value calculation they are using is based off of last night's calculation, so I can see why that number would be bogus.
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.18.09 - 5:44 pm | #
The change is from where the futures closed at 4:15pm. The futures continued to fall after the stocks closed at 4pm. That's "closing in the hole".
The fair value calculation (for which you need dividend and interest assumptions) won't change much day-to-day, so I don't know what your last sentence means.
Some things, Communists do better.
rich | 02.18.09 - 5:55 pm | #
Big chunky watches. Paranoia.
"Playboy may put itself up for sale."
Man, that's not even ironic.
Nostrovia,
"Playboy may put itself up for sale.
Anonymous"
Hugh might be completely worn out now.
"Big chunky watches. Paranoia."
space exploration, classical music, gymnastics etc
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
@Reptilian: All of the quotes I see for S&P 500 is that it closed at 788.42
Where are you pulling your current quote? CNN Money is obviously using 779.5 as their starting point.
I see the S&P 500 cash index at 783.86, which comes from CBOE via Interactive Brokers. The S&P 500 futures, closed now for a few minutes, were last at 778.25. At closing time, the S&P cash index did close at about 788.42, but selling continues in the after hours.
Thank glod I'm not an executive, they got a 10% cut.
"Thank glod I'm not an executive, they got a 10% cut.
Ed - Mtn View"
I'd rather lose $25k from $250k than $4k from $40k.
Errr...$2k.
Where do empty containers go to die?
I once saw huge mountains of empty containers from the train in New Jersey. Should be even bigger mountains near Long Beach. Find them on Google Earth.
And what do you think PODS are made from?
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"Playboy may put itself up for sale."
That guy has worn PJs for too long. The bottom must be in.
I think the cat has stopped bouncing.
OMG.. I'm not a huge fan of either party.. and I know the democrats in CA have done a lot of stupid things.. but are their republicans INSANE?
I mean.. how can they just go on being bankrupt?
space exploration, classical music, gymnastics etc
bgates | 02.18.09 - 6:00 pm | #
C
Thanks Eric & Reptillian! So I can look at the nominal value of the futures relative to the index close as a directional indicator for tomorrow's action. Subject to adjustment when fair value is calculated tonight...
Gav,
The s&p futures declined 1.5 between 3:15 CST and 4:30CST which is the first trading session of Thursday. Gotta go-must get ready for the 5:00CST reopening
Ed - Mtn View(Unrated) writes:
\tThank glod I'm not an executive, they got a 10% cut.
\t Ed - Mtn View | \t \t \t \t02.18.09 - 6:00 pm | #
Ed - Mtn View | 02.18.09 - 6:00 pm | #
I'd take the executive version - stock grants aren't affected. Base pay is a fragment of their compensation.
Elvis writes:
Errr...$2k.
Elvis | 02.18.09 - 6:02 pm | #
...............................
......congratulations.....king........
C
TCA | 02.18.09 - 6:04 pm | #
Damn Haloscan!
I said chess.
"That guy has worn PJs for too long. The bottom must be in."
That's what I mean...it's not ironic.
It's like calling a crusty ol' ho', that knows she's a crusty ol' ho', and still gives gummers, a crusty ol' ho'.
There's no "there" there.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.18.09 - 6:05 pm | #
That is a visualization I could have lived my entire life without, thanks.
and negotiations over how to fix the deficit reopened.
Yeah. That'll win over the California voters.
Republicans. Determined to dismantle their own party.
by the way, it's quite a good ole Texas ass-whoopin, this haircut Ed Mtn View mentions.
5% pay cuts
Suspension of ESPP
Wipeout of 401k match, with some pie-in-the-sky promise of paying out the match (at the expense of annual bonus) if we hit our performance targets.
A lot of these metrics are telling the same story: economy drops back to about 2002. Or thereabouts. I hope.
scone | 02.18.09 - 5:41 pm | #
I've heard similar. Basically, most of the last 8 years was imaginary growth.
Good to see the new administration is going to bail out financial blunders made by greed blinded morons. That's change I can believe in.
Thanks Eric & Reptillian! So I can look at the nominal value of the futures relative to the index close as a directional indicator for tomorrow's action. Subject to adjustment when fair value is calculated tonight...
Gavshire Hathaway | 02.18.09 - 6:04 pm | #
Again, that "fair value" number shouldn't change much day-to-day. It's based on expected dividends and interest, and tends to decay towards zero (although it can be positive or negative) as the future expiration date approaches. You should be able to find out what the current values are online somewhere.
Here's a primer.
"I've heard similar. Basically, most of the last 8 years was imaginary growth."
Only 8 years? You must be an optimist. I'm guessing we go back to early 1990 levels before this is over.
Last few days of news...just nonstop pain. Not sure I can read anymore.
"I've heard similar. Basically, most of the last 8 years was imaginary growth.
xxxxx"
I like to call it "illusory." And it was.
"I mean.. how can they just go on being bankrupt?
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:03 pm | #"
Until the state of CA decides to downsize itself.
How long do tires last before they rot?
lawyerliz | 02.18.09 - 5:42 pm | #
Tires are an issue, but bushing are often more expensive to replace. I don't recall about neoprene.
It's like calling a crusty ol' ho', that knows she's a crusty ol' ho', and still gives gummers, a crusty ol' ho'.
There's no "there" there.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
.
Remember that Zappa song, "Baby, take your teeth out"?
OT:
Goldman says partners hit by margin calls
Would venture to speculate that even lower level employees were "indulging" in PE and have lost a boatful.
Geoff - where is Scatman Cruth writes:
Last few days of news...just nonstop pain. Not sure I can read anymore.
Geoff - where is Scatman Cruth | 02.18.09 - 6:11 pm | #
............the saga continues , Geoff........
It's beyond Scatman Cruther's ability to kick the can far enough ahead. Instead, he's kicked the bucket.
Just watching the German English language news. Interviews of people in Sweden, Germany and UK re the coming collapse of GM which will probably finish off Saab, Opel and Vauxhall. Most lamented letting GM take over their car companies and blamed the US for the mess. All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world. Tanks a lot to Bush and his cronies, etc. and all the rest of the idiots.
scone,
Why yes I do...Unfortunately it's on a not so popular album.
"Baby take your teeth out
Try it one time
Baby take your teeth out
Try it one time
Leave 'em on the kitchen table
Baby take your teeth out
It'll be fine
Baby take your teeth out
It'll be fine
There ain't nothin' left to smile about
Baby take your teeth out
You look divine
Baby take your teeth out
You look divine
Go ahead and eat the label
Baby take your teeth out
I will recline
Baby take your teeth out
I will recline
There ain't nothin' left to talk about "
Nostrovia,
Hal,
"All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world."
What, do you think this is still 2001 Hal?
Nostrovia,
Republicans. Determined to dismantle their own party.
Feckless Ness | 02.18.09 - 6:07 pm | #
We've gotta get rid of all of those RINO's;-)
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
You should travel overseas once in a while, it has already happened years ago and shall inadvertently intensify.
Hal writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world
...Hal, it's already despicable word all around the globe ....you didnt know that?....strange......
Hal,
If they were such hot products they would survive with out GM. Chrysler was profitable till Daimler took them over. Should we hate the Germans or call it even?
Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
In the 80s, I did some work in Germany -- W. Germany. One day we had lunch with some people from one of the Benelux countries and when I praised Reagan -- my! how times change -- they all claimed that he was nothing but an actor.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
scone,
Why yes I do...Unfortunately it's on a not so popular album.
.
You're kidding. "Them or Us" is my favorite Zappa album. The cover of "Whippin' Post" is the best.
Only 8 years? You must be an optimist. I'm guessing we go back to early 1990 levels before this is over.
briwerk | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 6:10 pm | #
Perhaps, but that's not what I've heard. One might speculate that the dot-com boom was yet another bubble with a lot of phony growth, but still, one would think that somebody did some work over the last 12 years. I've been working, and none of it had to do with markets, finance, credit, et al.
Fed Starts Releasing Longer-Term Economic Projections
Fed Starts Releasing Longer-Term Economic Projections (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
The Fed minutes and forecasts indicated that officials are aiming to move public expectations at a 2 percent rate. Policy makers estimated long-term economic growth at 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent and an unemployment rate at 4.8 percent to 5 percent.
The Fed announced last week that it may expand a program aimed at supporting consumer loans to $1 trillion from $200 billion, aiding Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in the government’s revised financial-rescue plan. The Fed plans to start the program “any day now,” Bernanke said in response to an audience question.
The Fed is also buying $600 billion of debt sold by government-backed mortgage finance companies and mortgage-backed securities they guarantee.
moe, the boys in Asia and Europe aint gonna buy no bankrupt US car makers car....
bubba, course gonna get some heartbeat of Merica for cheap.
Should we hate the Germans or call it even?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 02.18.09 - 6:20 pm | #
Can't we do both?!
"In the 80s, I did some work in Germany -- W. Germany. One day we had lunch with some people from one of the Benelux countries and when I praised Reagan -- my! how times change -- they all claimed that he was nothing but an actor."
Oh he was more than an actor.. all this bullshit started under his watch
"supply-side" economics is the biggest scam ever....
And he pretty much bankrupted the govt.
Movement underway to shake up the CA Republican Assembly leadership to resist propsed state tax increases.
I prefer to look at the container as completely full rather than completely empty.
"Perhaps, but that's not what I've heard. One might speculate that the dot-com boom was yet another bubble with a lot of phony growth, but still, one would think that somebody did some work over the last 12 years. I've been working, and none of it had to do with markets, finance, credit, et al."
The dot-com boom did actually have some real stuff behind it... in fact software is probably the last real industry that the US still really dominates
scone,
Yes, but it's a good album.
But let's not go back to the early 80's or I might have to post a popular hit by Moonbeam.
Nostrovia,
Playboy may put itself up for sale.
We're in a deflationary period. Even breasts.
Oh he was more than an actor.. all this bullshit started under his watch
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:24 pm | #
Despite the constant repeating contrary to the fact, the S&L problems originated under Carter, and fundamentally as a result of Volker's doings at the Fed. If you bypass the fluff and look at the facts, you'll see that this is true.
This is not to say the Reagan didn't make it worse by deregulating, and suggesting that the S&Ls "grow" their way out of the problem. Just statin' the facts.
Should we hate the Germans or call it even?
Economist Moe Howard 3SU,
Don't mention the war!
YouTube -
Nostrovia,
From my CR opus - American Apocalypse. The latest look at your future. Yes! I am looking at you.
Somewhere in there I remember looking up at Regina. Maybe I thought she would help me. One look at her face dissuaded me of that. She was enjoying watching them kick the crap out of me. I do remember grabbing a leg, giving it a nice tug, and hearing someone fall into the Weber that was cooking the squirrels. I may have imagined it, or it may be wishful thinking, but I am sure I heard a scream. Who knows, it might have been me. Somewhere in there I blacked out. I came to for a few seconds as I was being dragged feet first down a path. I think I heard old guy bitching about how heavy I was. I remember my feet dropping to ground when they let go of them. That hurt. Then someone gave me a good-bye kick and I was alone.
The dot-com boom did actually have some real stuff behind it... in fact software is probably the last real industry that the US still really dominates
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:25 pm | #
Likewise, the investment in IS also boosted worker productivity. However, a lot a venture capital "whooshed" down the drain at that time. I remember one of our engineers who left to go to a Dot-Com startup coming to visit and mentioning that his company was in the "cash burn phase" of its development. I liken that to the use of pillage and plunder in your resume. There's never a right time
"Despite the constant repeating contrary to the fact, the S&L problems originated under Carter, and fundamentally as a result of Volker's doings at the Fed. If you bypass the fluff and look at the facts, you'll see that this is true.
This is not to say the Reagan didn't make it worse by deregulating, and suggesting that the S&Ls "grow" their way out of the problem. Just statin' the facts."
Who said anything about savings and loans? I was talking about spending way more than you take in and running up massive deficits/debt.....
Not to mention massive redistribution of wealth/income to the very rich
Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
You should travel overseas once in a while, it has already happened years ago and shall inadvertently intensify.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 6:19 pm | #
No worries BO will fix it.
"Likewise, the investment in IS also boosted worker productivity. However, a lot a venture capital "whooshed" down the drain at that time. I remember one of our engineers who left to go to a Dot-Com startup coming to visit and mentioning that his company was in the "cash burn phase" of its development. I liken that to the use of pillage and plunder in your resume. There's never a right time ;-)"
Agreed... there was plenty of BS there also... basically everyone's goal was to get some sucker company to buy their BS startup...
exhibit one.. see mark cuba
"Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
You should travel overseas once in a while, it has already happened years ago and shall inadvertently intensify.
Anonymous | 02.18.09 - 6:19 pm | #
No worries BO will fix it."
Body odor doesn't fix anything. Then they start calling you the stinky American rather than stupid American.
But let's not go back to the early 80's or I might have to post a popular hit by Moonbeam.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
.
Ick. And then I would be forced to counter with Motorhead. I forgot where the umlaut goes.
Bubba truck,
Troubled Auto Sector: Opel Plans Own Restructuring Plan to Avert Layoffs - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Who said anything about savings and loans? I was talking about spending way more than you take in and running up massive deficits/debt.....
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:31 pm | #
There's a good argument to be made that loose credit that's been around since really the mid Clinton years was the cause of our immediate crisis as well as the intermediate dot-com bubble, and that situation was, in part, to deal with the fallout of the S&L crisis that came to a head under GHWB, and that crisis had its roots in the Carter years. If one really wants to stretch it, one could even argue that Volker wouldn't have had to drive interest rates to 18-20% if Nixon hadn't resorted to price controls, and then there's the whole El Nino wiping out the sardine harvest, but enough is enough;-)
It reads like the worst is yet to come. Some countries, and ports will be really hit. My guess is Hamburg, and some of the North Sea ports are going to very slow.
Source: Pacificshipper.com
Two months into 2009, the best that can be said for the state of the breakbulk and project cargo shipping industry is that it hasnÂ’t been hit as hard as container shipping.
Energy and infrastructure projects from Alberta, Canada, to Australia are being canceled or postponed as the global recession drags on with no end in sight. Shipments of commodities and some breakbulk cargoes have fallen off dramatically while heavy-lift shipments are holding firm, at least for the time being. Accordingly, rates are plummeting in some trade lanes and holding steady in others.
One possible scenario is that there will be a significant amount of breakbulk and project cargo with a gradual falloff beginning in the second and third quarters of 2009. While rates for most breakbulk and heavy-lift cargo are staying relatively firm, they have fallen off in some areas and are likely to fall more broadly in 2009
"
There's a good argument to be made that loose credit that's been around since really the mid Clinton years was the cause of our immediate crisis as well as the intermediate dot-com bubble, and that situation was, in part, to deal with the fallout of the S&L crisis that came to a head under GHWB, and that crisis had its roots in the Carter years. If one really wants to stretch it, one could even argue that Volker wouldn't have had to drive interest rates to 18-20% if Nixon hadn't resorted to price controls, and then there's the whole El Nino wiping out the sardine harvest, but enough is enough;-)"
Good points... .and I don't mean to be partisan.. clinton may have at least known how to balance a checkbook.. but that clown sold us out to china among other things
And really.. we should blame ourselves... as a people we have generallly decided that we can cut taxes and not cut spending or even increase spending... .. and the bill is now coming due
Comrade Misean is Dope,
That was good long time since I watch that show!
When I switched from dial-up to broadband my wife told RCN by phone to cut off the dial-up connection. They didn't do it, and continued to charge us, and since the bill for her dial-up was bundled together with my bill, when she added it up just a while ago we had been overcharged by about $260. They claim they were never informed of the change and refuse to refund more than $13.
Just today there was a 'glitch' (their term) that cut off my email. We phoned three times to someplace in Bangalore - my guess - and each time got a different story - for instance whether or not my password was operative. Email is still not on, though I was told it would work now.
I'm beginning to wonder if customer service actually means anything to American companies - it seems to mean customer exploitation.
Extrapolate to the auto industry? Banking? Investment?
To big too fail also seems to mean to big to give a damn.
We know small to medium businesses around here that don't treat people that way.
We're going to switch providers, with the faint hope that there's someone better out there. Is there?
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
Two years ago the level of dislike in Poland was surprising. Not by Poles, but from other Europeans.
Not to mention massive redistribution of wealth/income to the very rich
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:31 pm | #
Despite being a conservative, I mentioned yesterday or the day before that it seems as though these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich, e.g. the railroad boom, the roaring 20, the last generation or so. As such, I'm for the moment forced to agree with you. Of course, one could make an argument that this dates back to Jack Kennedy's tax cuts..........
LOL
Republicans. Determined to dismantle their own party.
Feckless Ness | 02.18.09 - 6:07 pm | #
They consider obstinance a virtue.
Oh Dear Lord, the Crazy Redneck is Back. And he's not happy.
Watch it below.
Video: Page Not Found - The Daily Bail
This Guy IS Funny.
these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich
xxxxx | 02.18.09 - 6:41 pm | #
That's a period of transfer of wealth to the rich.
Blame it on the strong dollar.
I read a German news site during Obamas big visit during the campaigning. Most of the reviews were not pretty. None of this was portrayed in the US media.
I'm beginning to wonder if customer service actually means anything to American companies - it seems to mean customer exploitation.
It's an open secret in the industry, the crappier the support the better the stock price.
Although that dynamic may or has come to a halt.
"Despite being a conservative, I mentioned yesterday or the day before that it seems as though these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich, e.g. the railroad boom, the roaring 20, the last generation or so. As such, I'm for the moment forced to agree with you. Of course, one could make an argument that this dates back to Jack Kennedy's tax cuts..........
LOL"
I guess it depends on whether you are a REAL conservative or the current brand of facist that pretends they are a conservative..... they are very different things.
I hardly consider bush/reagan/etc conservatives... .
Real conservatives actually have some very good ideas and are vital when it comes to helping the govt practice some restraint.. unfortunately I have seen very few real conservatives (or real liberals for that matter) in our govt in some time.
everyone these days is just a different brand of corporatist
Wow! "... for Republicans, you really can't be anti-bailout and anti-nationalization. Those are the only options."
From Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo.
these deflationary periods usually come right after a period of wealth to the rich
xxxxx | 02.18.09 - 6:41 pm
Then the poor have a revolution. Some charismatic nutjob gets them off their asses and into uniforms and life takes a turn for the worse.
Ed - Mtn View writes:
My company just announced 5% pay cuts.
Ed - Mtn View | 02.18.09 - 5:58 pm | #
Interesting. My wife just got home and the same thing happened to her company today. You work in Northern Va?
They have already had like 4 layoffs. Looking bad.
Anonymous writes:
All in all, I expect "US" and "America" will soon be dirty words in Europe and in fact around the world.
No, The dirty word will be USD.
"Then the poor have a revolution. Some charismatic nutjob gets them off their asses and into uniforms and life takes a turn for the worse."
That's pretty much what I see coming if Obama isn't successful... the US version of hitler...
"Ed - Mtn View writes:
My company just announced 5% pay cuts.
Ed - Mtn View | 02.18.09 - 5:58 pm | # "
My wife's company is about to announce 100% pay cuts for 100% of the employees.
Whomever talked about tech being a sink-hole for dollars hasn't seen biotechs. Most of them never get out of the red.
"I'm beginning to wonder if customer service actually means anything to American companies - it seems to mean customer exploitation.
Extrapolate to the auto industry? Banking? Investment?"
investments, hehe don't get me started.
my blues is confidential though
HP pre announced...good night dow...new low tommorow
That's pretty much what I see coming if Obama isn't successful... the US version of hitler...
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:48 pm
Me too.
reptilian,
I have tracked Vancouver real estate since the recent boom started in 2003. One of the earliest things I drew upon to educate friends & family was that the olympics was a sham excuse. Looked at cities going back to LA's summer, but the most poignant example was Sydney's bubble. I'm not a schlub saying they will do anything positive for real estate. My point was that condos/apartments are not bad in themselves, although they may be symbolic of problems that follow them in areas with imprudent planning. You're not paying any attention to what I said, just dogpiling off of Rob Dawg's misdirected comments.
Rob Dawg,
The one good thing about the olympics was that it forced the Federal government to spend a few hundred million dollars that never ever happens out west, but eastern regions take for granted. As for any kind of international marketing/branding, there's better value ways of doing it. I'm not aware of any hope for "urban renewal" locally that you assume follows any olympics.
There's a housing bust to happen, 3/4s of new jobs in the province since 2003 have been in construction and a lot of other jobs like in restaurants will be sucked down along with them. It's not like anyone can stop it from happening, people will have to adjust. It would be cool if government encouraged the building of some office space now that condos no longer reign supreme, even soften the blow on construction employment.
girlbear,
I didn't say >1% of annual gold production was used in electronics. I said >1% was used for electronics in space. Because of the temperature, the variations thereof, and radiation bombardment gold is great for use in satellites.
Also if you are using the argument of lead free solder as bullish for gold, and I must admit I don't keep tabs on commercial PCB manufacturing, keep in mind that once transitioned the impact is not so large due to recycling. I appreciated your information, but the truth is I never spoke to electronics in general. Space is special
Here's a stupid question that hopefully someone can answer.
Why, if the dow closed at 7555, does the futures listing on bloomberg open at 7500?
I read a German news site during Obamas big visit during the campaigning. Most of the reviews were not pretty. None of this was portrayed in the US media.
Economist Moe Howard 3SU | 02.18.09 - 6:45 pm | #
I was in Germany in the early '80s. The old folks seemed to like us soldiers, and sometimes on manuvers, they'd come out and tell about battles that had taken place during WWII. Of course, we were just a few kliks from the border near Fulda Gap, and these folks new what could have been, and were glad they were on this side of the border.
However, even then, the young kids (16-24) didn't care for us, and it was also about that time that the German Govt. was removing information about hitler and the Holocost from childrens text books. Lots of Americans (that I knew) were concerned about this, and thought the old German attitudes would resurface. They have, and believe me they were already popping up when I visited Munich in 2000, before the election. You can't blame that on GWB.
Beyond that, screw the media. You can't believe anything that comes out of the MSM anymore.
My wife's company is about to announce 100% pay cuts for 100% of the employees.
Whomever talked about tech being a sink-hole for dollars hasn't seen biotechs. Most of them never get out of the red.
Pissed off in California | 02.18.09 - 6:49 pm | #
Please don't take this wrong. I want all your your stuff. You got sequencers? Fractionators? NMRs? Give me a call.
Damn,
My company (financial services) said below 7500 means more layoffs. This morning I was looking at a pink-slip, then this afternoon it was rescinded, now tomorrow it's on again (:
Of course not. Hoarding means a feeling of needing to have more of a necessity at hand.
Most people have, at most, a week or so worth of food in their houses. In a hoarding world, you decide you need 2-3 weeks worth. So, you stock up. Then, you have to maintain 2-3 weeks' worth or you will feel vulnerable.
So, you (one person) only need to stock up once and then maintain. But it's a wave that rolls around the world. The stocking up can last for years.
I'm shocked that a smart person like you don't understand the basics of Hoarding 101.
ova writes:
That's pretty much what I see coming if Obama isn't successful... the US version of hitler...
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:48 pm
Me too.
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 6:51 pm | #
You're both cracked.
Real conservatives actually have some very good ideas and are vital when it comes to helping the govt practice some restraint..
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:45 pm | #
My Dad and I are Goldwater/Buckley conservatives. You probably don't like that either. BTW, my Dad detests GWB, and didn't like his father much either.
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Then the poor have a revolution. Some charismatic nutjob gets them off their asses and into uniforms and life takes a turn for the worse.
nova | Homepage | 02.18.09 - 6:46 pm | #
I'm really too old for that crap
I actually had dreams of retiring less than a year ago. LOL and crying at the same time;-)
Hoopajoops LTD writes:
Here's a stupid question that hopefully someone can answer.
Why, if the dow closed at 7555, does the futures listing on bloomberg open at 7500?
The DOW quote is at 7497 in after hours. The DOW futures are at 7485. Selling continues.
briwerk writes:
Only 8 years? You must be an optimist. I'm guessing we go back to early 1990 levels before this is over.
briwerk
That might even be optimistic- I think we're in uncharted waters, you know, like in the old maps where they just drew in sea monsters...
Hoopajoops LTD writes:
Here's a stupid question that hopefully someone can answer.
Why, if the dow closed at 7555, does the futures listing on bloomberg open at 7500?
Also, now that interest rates are so low, the futures "premium" is negative. That is because the "premium" amounts to the interest cost of carrying the basket of stocks minus the expected dividends.
"My Dad and I are Goldwater/Buckley conservatives. You probably don't like that either. BTW, my Dad detests GWB, and didn't like his father much either."
Actually no.. that sounds like real conservatism.
FYI one of my favorite presidents in eisenhower.
Ron Paul has a screw loose on some subjects.. but he's right about our foreign policy and the fed.
xxxxx,
aah yes, "leaky condos". An ongoing problem. I expect there to be another surge in shoddy building to begin arising in a few years once the 2-5-10 year warranties run out, and condo stratas have deferred/underinvested in maintenance. Word is inspectors couldn't even hope to keep pace, and there were a lot of new workers who hadn't learned their lessons yet. The last leaky condo boom was also in part because of a national building code written by dorks that live a few thousand klicks away and don't understand the climate
EHP: I am not dog-piling on anyones comments. I think that CONdos are bad buys, so I don't find it difficult to find problems with them.
Pissed off in California,
Am I reading that right?
If the Dow goes below 7500 your company will lay off more?
"I'm shocked that a smart person like you don't understand the basics of Hoarding 101.
rich"
That is why I asked the question. I'm trying to follow your reasoning that you said the "Collapse phase 2. Coming soon to a commodity near you."
You work in Northern Va?
Wyoming | 02.18.09 - 6:47 pm | #
Palo Alto, CA.
FYI one of my favorite presidents in eisenhower.
LarryKudlow-Assclown | 02.18.09 - 6:58 pm | #
Not exactly a conservative, but more so than Nixon. I often hear Libs/Dems praising Kennedy, and I have to remind them that HE was the conservative choice in that election. ROFL. I'm easily amused;-)
W>homever talked about tech being a sink-hole for dollars hasn't seen biotechs. Most of them never get out of the red.
Rothstein Kass, the CPA firm, just published a very good study stating that biotech is in big trouble due to funding sources drying up.
To find it, search for Rothstein Kass and "Plumbing the Depths"
-- Biotechnology companies are almost universally in accord that current economic conditions will make it harder to raise money. Nearly 99 percent of November participants agreed, compared with just under 90 percent in September
-- In both the September and November surveys, roughly three-quarters of respondents predicted that there would be fewer biotechnology start-ups in 2009
-- Over 90 percent of firms in September and above 96 percent of November participants indicated that government sources of funding to the
industry will diminish
This comes at a time when Big Pharma pipelines are running dry, and normally there would be a lot of cash thrown at semi-successful biotechs. Now, better to let the pipeline run dry than throw money away.
If this doesn't work.. In 4 years it may be time for some serious Vagabonding....
America's Hitler may be a bridge too far.. McCain/Palin would have been Worse, and More Stupid, but the Hitler ref pushed it over the line..
It's hard to compare anyone who could take leadership here with Hitler.. Then again, they said that too..
reptillian,
It's just the first loss tranche of housing. Not fundamentally different from apartments which are hundreds of years old.
I just used my city as an example of where they, save for the price, are not at all undesirable to live relative to townhomes/basement suites/duplexes/SFH.
You were dog piling about the olympic comments which as far as I can tell only source back to Rob Dawg's suggestion that after the olympics condos will become undesirable compared to all other tranches of housing in the city. You even had a post that went on about maintenance and taxes after I mentioned strata fees as a negative. If you didn't realize strata fees are what pays for those things, I can only assume you have a very limited familiarity with condos in general.
Elvis,
I was referencing the article linked in a previous thread about the 5 Stages of Collapse.
The Five Stages of Collapse | Energy Bulletin
In Phase 2, Commercial Collapse, "faith that the market shall provide is lost. Commodities are hoarded. Import and retail chains break down. Widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm."
We have been through phase 1, Financial Collapse, and are entering phase 2. But only the Chinese can see it.
If Obama could see it, he would tell people to start hoarding.
Palo Alto, CA.
Ed - Mtn View | 02.18.09 - 7:01 pm | #
I just told her about your note and she said to me "You were not listening very well. I took a 10% pay cut, not 5%".
rich,
Wow. Can you say "Record Low"
You can't believe anything that comes out of the MSM anymore.
xxxxx | 02.18.09 - 6:52 pm |
I stumble on to reading Speigal online and found a lot of info and different look at things in the world. Any of the US media seems to be biased beyond belief.
EHP: OK, I know now what you mean by "strata."
"Pissed off in California,
Am I reading that right?
If the Dow goes below 7500 your company will lay off more?
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.18.09 - 7:00 pm | # "
EHP,
I don't think that 7500 is a hard and fast level. But I'm sure they're aware that a real break below 7500 is open air for atleast another 1000 points and indicates absolutely no recovery in the markets this year.
If that happens revenues at our company will be hit even harder. I'm preparing for more layoffs.
Pissed off in California | 02.18.09 - 6:53 pm | #
POIC - It sounds like you are really having a bad day.
Someday, like AllenM says, this war's gonna end. I just hope we can hold out that long.
reptilian,
's cool mate. I'm just stubborn when it comes to resolving little differences until they are a matter of opinion
Pissed Off In California,
Well you have prepared yourself more than anyone. I wish you the best, but if you do find yourself with some spare time. Write a book, you have the bird's eye perspective on some stories you just can't make up
Thanks, rich. I see. Now I understand.
EHP,
Thanks. We're fine as we prepared ahead due to this blog and a few others. Still it's pretty scary seeing what's coming down the pike.
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How much of this decline is the collapse of scrap paper and metal prices? Recycled baled cardboard that used to fill a lot of those outbound containers to China was selling for $0 until very recently. Same for scrap metal.
Just fill those empty containers piling up in LA with US jobs and ship them overseas. Don't forget to supply water to the jobholders. And a portapotty.
This will reduce unemployment, saving money. And other saluatory effects.
Keep shooting yourself in the foot by buying foreign-made goods. IT'S NOT SUSTAINABLE! THE USA CANNOT SUPPORT 1 BILLION PEOPLE IN CHINA!
What happens to the empty containers coming in that are in excess of those going out? Are they shipped back empty?
Zantage | 02.18.09 - 5:14 pm | #
A friend of mine ships scrap back as he can get better prices in the east than he can local. The ships need ballast and paying cargo also.