Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather." The special question about inventory in particular. Everyone who takes these datums to heart is going to scramble to get out in front of a massive decline in pipeline and competition from existing inventory in the face of declining end user demand.
The single word that probably best summarizes all of our feelings toward this last, truly miserable year is
“disillusionment.” We have all been, I believe, serially shocked by the lack of competence and misguided
philosophy of our top officials, who for years encouraged rather than discouraged the bad tendencies in our financial system. We have been amazed at the third-rate job done
by the leaders of our great fi nancial firms, above all by
their lack of moral fi ber in restricting what could best be
described as an orgy of moneymaking at any price. Madoff has done
historians a good turn by making it so clear that we were
looking to make our 1.5% fees rather than looking to do hard analysis, and that collectively, even when we were
suspicious, we were trying not to rock the boat. And, most
significantly, our regulators were happy to leave no stone turned!
But it was worse than merely a decay of financial integrity. 2008 capped in incompetence what I am sure
will be remembered as the most incompetent eight years of government in modern times, and a contender even if we include ancient times. Over an even longer period, as Paul Krugman would say, we tore up the social contract; through tax changes favoring the rich, we aided and abetted the strong global economic forces that already tended to
concentrate wealth in the hands of the already rich. It was an uncharitable, unsympathetic, and avaricious era in which the cult of the individual trumped overall society, and the drive for wealth and the luxuries of life took precedence
over more worthwhile and longer-lasting values. If you ended the year without becoming disillusioned, you were not paying attention.
ot as bad as '91, '82, or '75 yet. will it get there? who knows? Has the equation changed over time for this calculation? who knows? If the government has anything to do with it, it has. Bank on it. (no pun intended).
"we tore up the social contract; through tax changes favoring the rich, we aided and abetted the strong global economic forces that already tended to concentrate wealth in the hands of the already rich. It was an uncharitable, unsympathetic, and avaricious era"
So is it going to get better or worse?
I know which way I'm betting.
New administration looking timid and Jimmy Carterish so far.
...and Jimmy Carterish so far. comrade dope albrt | 02.19.09 - 10:32 am | # ----- Even if Oclinton states that he has had lust in his heart, then we may wish it was only Carterish before he is gone.
Oh wait, did someone say infation was up this morning? \t giacutter | \t \t \t \t02.19.09 - 10:25 am | # Birth bangs of hyperinflation. That what I have been expecting to happen sooner or later. When a government starts to print money, it will eventually finds its way to broader economy even when consumers are all dirt poor (like in the case of Weimar Germany).
One can imagine a chart that's scaled to better show changes in a range...
as a line swoops lower and lower, the past compresses, shrinking away...
I think I should try my hand at being a guided meditation instructor.
--you are now feeling a wave of realization moving over you--
--you feel an alarming sense of dread coming from deep within--
--you feel nothing at all--
"The grouchy blogger at Calculated Risk concurs. . . ."
Did that writer even visit this site?
Maybe it is just me, but in the last 20 months of lurking in these parts, I have always imagined CR to be a whistle-while-he-works kind of guy. You know, lemons and lemonade and all that.
Now, if the article had mentioned grouches in the comments section...
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With consumers curbing spending on autos and putting off that new purchase in favor of fixing up the older lemon in the driveway, makers of replacement parts, including Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), are reaping the gains as both reported better-than-expected quarters late Wednesday, driving shares higher Thursday.
"Alex Dalmady was just trying to do a favor for a friend when he uncovered one of the biggest potential frauds in banking history.
The amateur investor, a 48-year-old Venezuelan financial analyst who lives in southern Florida, went online and within hours discovered major discrepancies in the business model of fugitive financier Allen Stanford's $50 billion Stanford International Bank."
...here is the "money" quote...
"I heard about someone who put $50,000 in to Stanford after reading the article. But you can't stop stupid."
WE are grouchy. Get it right. CR is is friendly and fun and goes hiking.
He coddles Nemo and tolerates the rest of us. What better proof of good humor can be extended? It's the gypsies living in the alley behind his house that will call you blind and date your mom.
Rob Dawg writes: Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather
Do you mean something like this: Committed Order's for Top customer (annual average sales 500pcs) Q1 100 pcs booked with p/o # Q2 10 pcs booked with p/o # Q3 no p/o # Q4 no p/o # Barley | 02.19.09 - 10:49 am | #
That's "Phase I". Phase II is when the customer realizes they overreacted and try to place an order for 200 in the next quarter only to discover the supplier has gone BK or scaled back so much they can't fill the order. This is the fatal flaw in Coase's economic theorem. There is both inertia and a time delay in diffusing economic information among the players.
undisclosed,
I trade in and out of tgt constantly. Currently, I hold a larger position than normal because it is near the bottom of its recent trading range.
If we want banks to store nuts for winter, letÂ’s prevent them from paying out too much in dividends and share buybacks during good times. Those outlays wouldnÂ’t lead to games with earnings that can give investors a false sense of comfort.
Consider that between 2003 and 2007 Citigroup Inc. paid out about $44 billion in dividends and about $22 billion buying back stock. The combined outlay is about four times more than its current market value, and much more than what the government has shelled out to keep the bank afloat.
WhatÂ’s amazing is that after all this, bankers want even more leeway over reserves for potential soured loans, one of the most subjective areas of the balance sheet.
2) Bailed-Out Chase CEO Dimon: People Should Pay Mortgages "Even If They're Underwater"
Asked for his thoughts about Obama's housing plan, Dimon praised the plan, saying that it was "really elegantly done and really well-designed," adding that JPMorganChase alone will modify over 600,000 loans.
But he took a tough attitude towards home owners behind on their payments:
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
Tim and Mr Potatoe Head writes:
In the face of the worst recession in 60 years CA has decided to raise taxes on the lemmings.
When I was thinking about buying a home in CA a few years ago I was shoked by the outrageous prices. I was told I was paying the "sunshine tax". I suppose that is much less the case, now.
I suppose that the CA assembly just passed the replacement sunshine tax.
Did the markets' decline back to yesterday's closing coincide with the Philly release? If not, what made the markets reset an hour into trading? yagij | 02.19.09 - 10:35 am | #
The markets go up when there are more buyers than sellers.
They go down when the reverse is true.
You're not seriously looking for cause and effect in this irrational season, are you?
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:02 am | #
He should try a little of that medicine himself...
I could bury dollars in a mayonnaise jar in my back yard and it'd be smarter! At least then if there's massive inflation I can break the jar and buy a piano or something!
By the way, the USG is having trouble actually paying contractors on time under continuing resolution. Contractors like BearingPoint will be going under fast if payments exceed net 90.
Broker writes:
10-15 million new jobs (community organizers), and we should be OK.
Ha ha, I get it, because Barack Obama was a community organizer and you hate him! Very clever.
Seriously though, you might not be far off the mark. During the last depression, there was a huge expansion of social services jobs to determine who needed food aid and who was faking - this generally recruited women from the community, as organizers, to interview people and take notes.
By the way, the USG is having trouble actually paying contractors on time under continuing resolution. Contractors like BearingPoint will be going under fast if payments exceed net 90.
They can always sue... oh wait sovereign immunity, sucks to work for the government! I can only imagine what contractors for the state of california must be going through.
Trouble brewing in flyover farm country. Talked to a farmer/coop neighbor who says the grain elevators are in trouble. In addition to bank credit problems, it seems elevators paid high prices for fuel & petroleum-based products during the crude runup. They can't charge the farmers those prices.
The only story I could find was an old one about how the credit crisis has affected the elevators.
Expedia Inc (EXPE.O) posted a fourth-quarter net loss on Thursday as the online travel agency took a $3 billion charge for goodwill impairment stemming from a decline in its market capitalization. Business - Google News
Good will impairment. That wins the best euphemism for "we have no real money or make believe money and will soon be bankrupt".
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I just read UBS will release the names fo clients that used their bank to skirt paying taxes...This could get interesting...
...you know, to avoid any future confusion, when it's 'Morning' in the Pacific, I think we ought to decide it's considered Morning throughout the ignorant remainder of the globe...whattya think?
Rumour de jour is that the Fed is about to restrict the amount of cash banks can place with them. Given that there's over a trillion in excess reserves currently being placed with the Fed, this would force a huge amount of cash out into the interbank market. If it's true, there's going to be an awful lot of cash looking for a new home. Think the helicopter attack scene in Apocolypse Now, and Ben is about to crank up the Wagner.
Comrade Kristina writes:
...Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I just read UBS will release the names fo clients that used their bank to skirt paying taxes...This could get interesting...
I hope they (UBS) were smart and got themselfs a good junk of TARP money for that .
Rumour de jour is that the Fed is about to restrict the amount of cash banks can place with them.
Do you have a source on that? I have been very carefully following Bernanke's speeches and he has not proposed doing that... nor does it really make sense...
Speaking of CA, I'm wondering if all those taxpayers who were waiting for their refund to come in but are told it won't be mailed anytime soon, will they get interest for the late payment? Or does that work only one way? Sort of a message from the govt. to the people saying "We can take your shit."
i was just thinking that about the runs. The stanford deal has people on edge. TradingStats | 02.19.09 - 10:53 am | # ----- The SIB fun has hit people who are 2-3 degrees of separation from myself.
Similar to Madoff, these people put all of their money, their assisted living parents' money, and junior's college money into SIB's awesome return CDs. Yesterday, they were calling local attorneys completely panic-stricken wondering what options that they may have to recoup some of their money. The usual line has been "I'll see what I can do, but you might as well consider it gone." Now these people--50-60 yo--are looking into moving in with their elderly parents, elderly parents moving in with them, and all other sorts of arrangements that they would've previously thought odd or laughable.
While Madoff affected many in the Jewish community, SIB is affecting many people who looked at the Madoff victims and scoffed...
Collapsing economy, farmers and other producers in big financial trouble (=narrowing supply), government starting to print money and all kinds of budgets shot to hell, thanks to tax revenues collapsing and two wars to be financed. Perfect recipe for HYPERINFLATION. It is coming and both Denninger and Mish are WRONG!
I think there is a lot of overhead supply on Gold above 1000 Tim and Mr Potatoe Head | 02.19.09 - 11:20 am | # ----- Physical silver is above 14 oz/USD and if you are a retail buyer (>100 oz/purchase), silver is back to toeing the 20 oz/USD line. If I can find it anywhere online for less than 20 oz/USD (including s/h, tax, insurance, etc), I'm scooping it up. Gold may be a trap--which I don't think 1000 oz/USD is--but I don't see silver moving back to its 9.75 oz/USD line during this volitility.
That's why it's a rumour. On the one hand, I seriously doubt they can physically limit bank balances, and it's not like they can pay a punitively low rate since they've already gone to zirp. On the other hand, I think the Fed is so frustrated with the interbank market right now they're looking into hiring the Sopranos to suggest to the money center banks it might be in their interest to step up their lending to one another. The Tony Soprano moment in this case would be the Fed making it known that swimming with the fishes = nationalization.
anyone hear about CA tax hike? Anyone? \t Tim and Mr Potatoe Head | 02.19.09 - 11:18 am | #
Sales tax +1.25% going to +1.125% when Stimpak comes. Vehicle Reg 1.4% almost double. No new income taxes or gas taxes. June(?) election to approve more bond debt.
You know I vote dem more than rep.. but I think they are all idiots.... I wish someone would explain to the idiot democrats that sales tax increases HURT POOR PEOPLE AND ARE EXTREMELY REGRESSIVE
My question is why the SEC always comments after shit hits the fan. Asshats!
"Filing a case in the civil courts against Sir Allen, the SEC described the case as "fraud of shocking magnitude that has spread its tentacles throughout the world".
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements. . . . . Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, Nemo and Counterpoint.
You know I vote dem more than rep.. but I think they are all idiots.... I wish someone would explain to the idiot democrats that sales tax increases HURT POOR PEOPLE AND ARE EXTREMELY REGRESSIVE -30 is the new +10 | 02.19.09 - 11:30 am | #
It wasn't about "fair." It was and remains about possible. There is no blood left in the progressive taxation stone. Attempts to further soak the rich and/or businesses were privately acknowledged to have likely negative returns. They needed money so they went to the only places left. And if my math is correct this will push LA County sales taxes to 10%. That'll probably mark a tolerance threshold.
Dawg writes:
It wasn't about "fair." It was and remains about possible. There is no blood left in the progressive taxation stone. Attempts to further soak the rich and/or businesses were privately acknowledged to have likely negative returns.
I agree with the first part. The package was shaped by politics.
I disagree with the second part. Sure, Dawg and someone else privately acknowledged that increased income taxes on high earners would have negative returns, but that does not make it true.
The sales tax should not have been hiked.
Some new high end tax brackets should have been introduced and set to higher rates, and the lower brackets should have been given relief.
And, last but not least, since we are in the realm of "should," Prop 13 should be scrapped and replaced with a gradually implemented system of current assessed value property taxation (exemptions for fixed and low income folks) and a simple majority vote for budgets.
AP'Shadow writes:
...Yep' It fixed US right up didn't it...
Well, I didn't say that, but an exchange of 2 million (unskilled) jobs against 2 million highly skilled HB-Visa workers certainly must have helped the US. Don't you agree ?
and someone else privately acknowledged that increased income taxes on high earners would have negative returns, but that does not make it true.
The sales tax should not have been hiked.
Some new high end tax brackets should have been introduced and set to higher rates, and the lower brackets should have been given relief.
And, last but not least, since we are in the realm of "should," Prop 13 should be scrapped and replaced with a gradually implemented system of current assessed value property taxation (exemptions for fixed and low income folks) and a simple majority vote for budgets. joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:41 am | #
True or not the private analysis won out. Who can tell if it was true? I tend to believe it but don't ask me to prove it.
You are so very correct that the sales tax should not have been raised. IMO it will spur an underground economy that will drain potential revenue for a very long time.
The mechanics and distribution of the income tax burden make it impossible to give relief to the low end although there might have been room for a tick or two to the top brackets.
Prop 13 is the only bright spot in the budget. Yes, it has returned more money y-o-y. I'd be wary about scrapping the only thing left that works as a reliable source of revenue.
And if my math is correct this will push LA County sales taxes to 10%. That'll probably mark a tolerance threshold.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 11:35 am | #
Couple more % and we can call it a VAT tax or a flat tax or...
Of course we didn't eliminate any of the other taxes so I guess in its purist form it is just a Very Awful Tax.
Politics shaped the specifics of the budget. Not much else.
I do not at all see why the income tax could not be made more progressive, a little steeper with more steps on the high end and lighter on the low end. Of course it can be done, technincally speaking. The problem is political, and only political, as far as I can see.
Prop 13 returns money y-o-y? huh????? how do you figure that? among its many other faults, Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State. Even if Prop 13 somehow produces more revenue for the State, which I doubt, it substantially drains revenue from the State to compensate counties for their losses under Prop 13.
Comrade Kristina writes:
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:02 am | #
He should try a little of that medicine himself...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 11:06 am | #
The new phrase that I hope makes it into everyone's vocabulary is: RATIONAL DEFAULT
Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State. joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:54 am | #
No, no, no, no. A common myth. In 1978 the same year that Prop 13 passed there was a State Supreme Court ruling that stripped local school districts from self funding in favor of a Statewide supposed level funding mandate. It was this latter that cause the problems you cite and had nothing to do with Prop 13. They just both happened at the same time.
Unbelievably massive bottoming process.
wow-another record low.
CR: Why does that blue bar on the immediate right hand of the graph appear to be getting fatter?
too many workers and not enough gravy sucking mouth breathers.
CR: Why does that blue bar on the immediate right hand of the graph appear to be getting fatter?
Barley | 02.19.09 - 10:19 am | #
FEED ME, Seymour!
As we move to the right the blue background will overcome the white..
I'm not sure what is meant by "67 percent said their customers' inventory plans had also decreased."
What is that in a layman's terms?
Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather." The special question about inventory in particular. Everyone who takes these datums to heart is going to scramble to get out in front of a massive decline in pipeline and competition from existing inventory in the face of declining end user demand.
What is that in a layman's terms?
deflatio
Add unemployment to inflation and you get the misery index.
Maybe if inflation goes low enough, with deflation, it could be a negative misery index, thus, everyone is happy as little hippie puppies.
Oh wait, did someone say infation was up this morning?
Melvin Cooper taking advantage of blind people in the latest 4 billion dollar ponzi scheme.
oops--not quite a record low (but just give it time).
OT-- Here is a great 14 page read by GMO partner Jeremy Grantham: GMO believes 2009 for the stock market still has great potential to be a "value trap" although his confidence is not at the 90% level that it was last year.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/granthams-quarterly-letter-part-2.pdf
My favorite section is Part 4.
The single word that probably best summarizes all of our feelings toward this last, truly miserable year is
“disillusionment.” We have all been, I believe, serially shocked by the lack of competence and misguided
philosophy of our top officials, who for years encouraged rather than discouraged the bad tendencies in our financial system. We have been amazed at the third-rate job done
by the leaders of our great fi nancial firms, above all by
their lack of moral fi ber in restricting what could best be
described as an orgy of moneymaking at any price. Madoff has done
historians a good turn by making it so clear that we were
looking to make our 1.5% fees rather than looking to do hard analysis, and that collectively, even when we were
suspicious, we were trying not to rock the boat. And, most
significantly, our regulators were happy to leave no stone turned!
But it was worse than merely a decay of financial integrity. 2008 capped in incompetence what I am sure
will be remembered as the most incompetent eight years of government in modern times, and a contender even if we include ancient times. Over an even longer period, as Paul Krugman would say, we tore up the social contract; through tax changes favoring the rich, we aided and abetted the strong global economic forces that already tended to
concentrate wealth in the hands of the already rich. It was an uncharitable, unsympathetic, and avaricious era in which the cult of the individual trumped overall society, and the drive for wealth and the luxuries of life took precedence
over more worthwhile and longer-lasting values. If you ended the year without becoming disillusioned, you were not paying attention.
Seems like deflation to me.
Yeah, thats good for gold....
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.
It's still not close to -60.
ot as bad as '91, '82, or '75 yet. will it get there? who knows? Has the equation changed over time for this calculation? who knows? If the government has anything to do with it, it has. Bank on it. (no pun intended).
What is that in a layman's terms?
burnside
aka customers are buying or intend to buy less
"The prices received index dropped 22 points, to its lowest reading since the survey began in 1968." = systemic deflation, no?
In the face of the worst recession in 60 years CA has decided to raise taxes on the lemmings.
In case you missed it :
YouTube - U.S. bankrupt
See it before it's taken down!
CR shall now be known as the "grouchy blogger:"
"The grouchy blogger at Calculated Risk concurs. . . ."
Obama Promises Housing Plan Will Help Only the Nice Homeowners -- Daily Intel
"we tore up the social contract; through tax changes favoring the rich, we aided and abetted the strong global economic forces that already tended to concentrate wealth in the hands of the already rich. It was an uncharitable, unsympathetic, and avaricious era"
So is it going to get better or worse?
I know which way I'm betting.
New administration looking timid and Jimmy Carterish so far.
Did the markets' decline back to yesterday's closing coincide with the Philly release? If not, what made the markets reset an hour into trading?
...and Jimmy Carterish so far.
comrade dope albrt | 02.19.09 - 10:32 am | #
-----
Even if Oclinton states that he has had lust in his heart, then we may wish it was only Carterish before he is gone.
who said bottoming process. did you mean bottom?
Barley, thanks. Needed to nail that down.
More broken records...WHOOPEEEE!
Someone's gonna need to clean up all the broken stuff, though....
Nostrovia,
Oh wait, did someone say infation was up this morning?
\t giacutter | \t \t \t \t02.19.09 - 10:25 am | #
Birth bangs of hyperinflation. That what I have been expecting to happen sooner or later. When a government starts to print money, it will eventually finds its way to broader economy even when consumers are all dirt poor (like in the case of Weimar Germany).
One can imagine a chart that's scaled to better show changes in a range...
as a line swoops lower and lower, the past compresses, shrinking away...
I think I should try my hand at being a guided meditation instructor.
--you are now feeling a wave of realization moving over you--
--you feel an alarming sense of dread coming from deep within--
--you feel nothing at all--
More broken records...WHOOPEEEE!
Someone's gonna need to clean up all the broken stuff, though....
Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.19.09 - 10:38 am | #
Livers all over the blogosphere are grateful that there is no associated drinking game for uncharted territory.
As long as we have asinine headlines like this:
"Wall Street Rises as Investors Go Bargain Hunting"
Yahoo! Finance - Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News
methinks records will continue to shatter.
Nostrovia,
Barley writes:
CR: Why does that blue bar on the immediate right hand of the graph appear to be getting fatter?
Barley
Rob Dawg writes:
Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather."
Barley: Don't look now, but the 'perfect storm' is creating its own weather ... yikes!
Rob Dawg,
"Livers all over the blogosphere are grateful that there is no associated drinking game for uncharted territory."
I sense an untapped marketing campaign for the breweries....
Just sayin'
Nostrovia,
I sense an untapped marketing campaign for the breweries....
Just sayin'
Comrade Misean is Dope | 02.19.09 - 10:43 am | #
Are you suggesting a bottom in alcohol sales? Oh, dear.. did I just say "bottom?" KNURD!
"The grouchy blogger at Calculated Risk concurs. . . ."
Did that writer even visit this site?
Maybe it is just me, but in the last 20 months of lurking in these parts, I have always imagined CR to be a whistle-while-he-works kind of guy. You know, lemons and lemonade and all that.
Now, if the article had mentioned grouches in the comments section...
Rob Dawg writes:
Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather
Do you mean something like this:
Committed Order's for Top customer
(annual average sales 500pcs)
Q1 100 pcs booked with p/o #
Q2 10 pcs booked with p/o #
Q3 no p/o #
Q4 no p/o #
cnbc -
"... as the economy improves... " blah blah blah
Funny stuff.
supafly73 writes:
...When a government starts to print money, it will eventually finds its way to broader economy...
You can count on that !
Here's some of the retail strength:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With consumers curbing spending on autos and putting off that new purchase in favor of fixing up the older lemon in the driveway, makers of replacement parts, including Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), are reaping the gains as both reported better-than-expected quarters late Wednesday, driving shares higher Thursday.
ORLY + 14.4%
AAP + 13.4%
Bank-rupt writes:
In case you missed it :
YouTube - ? v=DxPcJyypUKc
See it before it's taken down!
Bank-rupt | 02.19.09 - 10:31 am | #
Who is that? Why is that?
The railroads must be really starting to feel it. Along with everyone else who transports goods in this country.
BAC about to sport a 3 handle.
Popeye writes:
Here's some of the retail strength:
tgt is doing okay for then?
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
...As long as we have asinine headlines like this:...
May I point out that these are "american" headlines ?
TradingStats writes:
BAC about to sport a 3 handle
Once the news video footage of the bank runs in SA and the carribean hit the airwaves...could be interesting
"Alex Dalmady was just trying to do a favor for a friend when he uncovered one of the biggest potential frauds in banking history.
The amateur investor, a 48-year-old Venezuelan financial analyst who lives in southern Florida, went online and within hours discovered major discrepancies in the business model of fugitive financier Allen Stanford's $50 billion Stanford International Bank."
...here is the "money" quote...
"I heard about someone who put $50,000 in to Stanford after reading the article. But you can't stop stupid."
Alex Dalmady, The Man Who Exposed Fugitive Financier Allen Stanford
i was just thinking that about the runs. The stanford deal has people on edge.
a nice rumor floated properly could get the stampede started.
WE are grouchy. Get it right. CR is is friendly and fun and goes hiking.
He coddles Nemo and tolerates the rest of us. What better proof of good humor can be extended? It's the gypsies living in the alley behind his house that will call you blind and date your mom.
undisclosed, I was referring to unexpected strength in the retail indexes.
undisclosed writes:
"The grouchy blogger at Calculated Risk concurs. . . ."
No that bozo never visited this site & has no conception of what's going on here.
It's a little know fact that CR's happy-go-lucky Weltenschauung has prevented more suicides than all mental health professionals put together ...
Everyone who takes these datums to heart
C'mon Dawg, you know the plural is data, stop trying to sound presidential.
The amateur investor, a 48-year-old Venezuelan financial analyst who lives in southern Florida
what a slam. is he an amateur, or a real analyst? he's amatuer cause he's from venezeula?
Rob Dawg writes:
Numbers like this have the danger of "creating their own weather
Do you mean something like this:
Committed Order's for Top customer (annual average sales 500pcs)
Q1 100 pcs booked with p/o # Q2 10 pcs booked with p/o #
Q3 no p/o # Q4 no p/o #
Barley | 02.19.09 - 10:49 am | #
That's "Phase I". Phase II is when the customer realizes they overreacted and try to place an order for 200 in the next quarter only to discover the supplier has gone BK or scaled back so much they can't fill the order. This is the fatal flaw in Coase's economic theorem. There is both inertia and a time delay in diffusing economic information among the players.
undisclosed, I was referring to unexpected strength in the retail indexes.
Popeye | 02.19.09 - 10:54 am
I was trying to ask about your trade, except I left out the word "you" -- rendered the whole post meaningless.
Starting over: thought you said +tgt yesterday and wondered if you are still in.
"what a slam. is he an amateur, or a real analyst? he's amatuer cause he's from venezeula?"
He's amatuer because he's got a real job.
Thank god for term limits...
Calif D's increase cuts to education to avoid hiking gas tax $2B.
R's get furniture order canceled.
C'mon Dawg, you know the plural is data, stop trying to sound presidential.
\t Charles Kiting | 02.19.09 - 10:54 am | #
I was being discrete. [ducks]
Dear Mr. Market,
I find your utter lack of conviction disconcerting.
--bh
Stocks pop in early trading
- as investors took abysmal readings on wholesale inflation and jobless claims in stride CNNMoney.com
Housing rescue plan helps all homeowners
...
The Obama media machine - these guys are so good
undisclosed,
I trade in and out of tgt constantly. Currently, I hold a larger position than normal because it is near the bottom of its recent trading range.
Werner writes:
May I point out that these are "american" headlines ?
Werner,
Yes you may. May I ask what you're provoking geopolitical arguments so early in the morning?
Oh, silly me--I forgot it's evening in Deutschland ... es tut mir lied ....
"It's the gypsies living in the alley behind his house that will call you blind and date your mom."
....LOL....THAT'S a save.....
compare these two statements and think about how the political field is shifting:
1) excerpt from: Sexing Up Books IsnÂ’t the Answer for Banking Woes: David Reilly
Sexing Up Books Isn’t the Answer for Banking Woes: David Reilly - Bloomberg.com
If we want banks to store nuts for winter, letÂ’s prevent them from paying out too much in dividends and share buybacks during good times. Those outlays wouldnÂ’t lead to games with earnings that can give investors a false sense of comfort.
Consider that between 2003 and 2007 Citigroup Inc. paid out about $44 billion in dividends and about $22 billion buying back stock. The combined outlay is about four times more than its current market value, and much more than what the government has shelled out to keep the bank afloat.
WhatÂ’s amazing is that after all this, bankers want even more leeway over reserves for potential soured loans, one of the most subjective areas of the balance sheet.
2) Bailed-Out Chase CEO Dimon: People Should Pay Mortgages "Even If They're Underwater"
Bailed-Out Chase CEO Dimon: People Should Pay Mortgages "Even If They're Underwater"
Asked for his thoughts about Obama's housing plan, Dimon praised the plan, saying that it was "really elegantly done and really well-designed," adding that JPMorganChase alone will modify over 600,000 loans.
But he took a tough attitude towards home owners behind on their payments:
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
Tim and Mr Potatoe Head writes:
In the face of the worst recession in 60 years CA has decided to raise taxes on the lemmings.
When I was thinking about buying a home in CA a few years ago I was shoked by the outrageous prices. I was told I was paying the "sunshine tax". I suppose that is much less the case, now.
I suppose that the CA assembly just passed the replacement sunshine tax.
No,he is an amateur because he did at least minimal due diligence.
Dear Mr. Market,
I find your utter lack of conviction disconcerting.
triangles forming everywhere -
I have no idea why ANYONE is buying longer dated treasuries. They seem like the worst investment I can imagine.
TradingStats writes:
i was just thinking that about the runs
Inflection Point: Dont trust American Banks!
There is both inertia and a time delay in diffusing economic information among the players.
Rob Dawg
I might agree. We have now moved to a jit delivery system. But the distruptions might be mitigated by (now) faster info flow.
Did the markets' decline back to yesterday's closing coincide with the Philly release? If not, what made the markets reset an hour into trading?
yagij | 02.19.09 - 10:35 am | #
The markets go up when there are more buyers than sellers.
They go down when the reverse is true.
You're not seriously looking for cause and effect in this irrational season, are you?
undisclosed,
I did take profits from yesterday's buy, but still own a lot of it. Perhaps that's clearer.
The Latest from Denninger:
Caution: Consumer Products Crash Ahead
They seem like the worst investment I can imagine.
Hoopajoops LTD
'comon Hoop - backed by the USG!
Barley,
The otherside of the crap-coin is that the disruptions themselves are delivered faster as well.
--bh
Just for emphasis:
Jamie Dimon: "we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations."
His face, that quote, this demand: "pay the TARP financed bonuses back, now."
Political analysis: shoe entered mouth, went down throat, and suddenly everyone can conveniently forget they once knew the Heimlich Maneuver.
Samdog writes:
...so early in the morning?
...I forgot it's evening in Deutschland ...
Neither nor ! Its' afternoon in Deutschland.
But your crasp of facts is pretty characteristic of the bloggers here.
10-15 million new jobs (community organizers), and we should be OK.
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:02 am | #
He should try a little of that medicine himself...
'comon Hoop - backed by the USG!
I could bury dollars in a mayonnaise jar in my back yard and it'd be smarter! At least then if there's massive inflation I can break the jar and buy a piano or something!
By the way, the USG is having trouble actually paying contractors on time under continuing resolution. Contractors like BearingPoint will be going under fast if payments exceed net 90.
IOUs don't take care of revolving debt.
--bh
Cascade failure is gaining momentum.
Broker writes:
10-15 million new jobs (community organizers), and we should be OK.
Ha ha, I get it, because Barack Obama was a community organizer and you hate him! Very clever.
Seriously though, you might not be far off the mark. During the last depression, there was a huge expansion of social services jobs to determine who needed food aid and who was faking - this generally recruited women from the community, as organizers, to interview people and take notes.
OT: I have some of the early details and links to California's budget "deal" on my blog.
So is it going to get better or worse?
Quickly summarizing 14 pages of GMO:
67% chance S&P 500 goes to new lows, with 600 or below "more typical".
Also expect to see inflation rates well above normal after everthing shakes out.
And watch what Volker does, if he resigns in a year from the Obama team, that's a bad sign.
By the way, the USG is having trouble actually paying contractors on time under continuing resolution. Contractors like BearingPoint will be going under fast if payments exceed net 90.
They can always sue... oh wait sovereign immunity, sucks to work for the government! I can only imagine what contractors for the state of california must be going through.
oil is market direction maker today...just went up a dollar pushing it green
Crude Oil Chart
Hoopajoops LTD - lol!
(this assumes, of course, that the USD will be a tradable currency)
"...we should teach the American people..."
Mister Moneybags is gonna take quite a pay cut if he wants to become a teacher.
Just sayi
Trouble brewing in flyover farm country. Talked to a farmer/coop neighbor who says the grain elevators are in trouble. In addition to bank credit problems, it seems elevators paid high prices for fuel & petroleum-based products during the crude runup. They can't charge the farmers those prices.
The only story I could find was an old one about how the credit crisis has affected the elevators.
Grain Elevators Caught Between Farm Boom, Credit Crunch
Dave of SV - my target for S&P is 650ish b4 April fwiw
uco good be fun play till 12 est tomm..
if oil gets groovy
Expedia Inc (EXPE.O) posted a fourth-quarter net loss on Thursday as the online travel agency took a $3 billion charge for goodwill impairment stemming from a decline in its market capitalization.
Business - Google News
Good will impairment. That wins the best euphemism for "we have no real money or make believe money and will soon be bankrupt".
Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I just read UBS will release the names fo clients that used their bank to skirt paying taxes...This could get interesting...
Hoopajoops LTD,
Yep. At least contractors don't run the underlying infrastructure of vital domestic and defense services...oh,...crap.
--bh
..."I forgot it's evening in Deutschland" ...
...you know, to avoid any future confusion, when it's 'Morning' in the Pacific, I think we ought to decide it's considered Morning throughout the ignorant remainder of the globe...whattya think?
"But your crasp of facts is pretty characteristic of the bloggers here.
Werner"
Werner,
Please pardon my "crasp."
Wow, you're in a crappy mood today ...
Rumour de jour is that the Fed is about to restrict the amount of cash banks can place with them. Given that there's over a trillion in excess reserves currently being placed with the Fed, this would force a huge amount of cash out into the interbank market. If it's true, there's going to be an awful lot of cash looking for a new home. Think the helicopter attack scene in Apocolypse Now, and Ben is about to crank up the Wagner.
Turbo
How much confidence would you put in that likelihood
Comrade Kristina writes:
...Sorry if this has already been discussed, but I just read UBS will release the names fo clients that used their bank to skirt paying taxes...This could get interesting...
I hope they (UBS) were smart and got themselfs a good junk of TARP money for that .
anyone hear about CA tax hike? Anyone?
Rumour de jour is that the Fed is about to restrict the amount of cash banks can place with them.
Do you have a source on that? I have been very carefully following Bernanke's speeches and he has not proposed doing that... nor does it really make sense...
Turbo,
It's an interesting proposition. But the money will still get hoarded.
No net gain. Sloshing won't happen IMO.
Too many blackholes in balance sheets.
--bh
Speaking of CA, I'm wondering if all those taxpayers who were waiting for their refund to come in but are told it won't be mailed anytime soon, will they get interest for the late payment? Or does that work only one way? Sort of a message from the govt. to the people saying "We can take your shit."
All commodities are green today -- food, energy and metals.
Gold and silver are a train, and today has produced a nice pullback buying opportunity.
People who look at charts and say gold is overvalued are ignoring the new fundamentals.
Just as there are no catalysts capable of moving stocks much higher, there aren't any catalysts capable of pulling gold and silver down.
As I thought and predicted, SLW had a nice pullback buying op today on weak Q4 earnings. It's a train from here.
Werner, actually they are paying a 780 million dollar fine for their involvement in tax evasion
Swiss financial giant UBS to release thousands of American names in tax-evasion scandal
i agree with blackhat. They would just use it to plug holes that the Feds won't
i was just thinking that about the runs. The stanford deal has people on edge.
TradingStats | 02.19.09 - 10:53 am | #
-----
The SIB fun has hit people who are 2-3 degrees of separation from myself.
Similar to Madoff, these people put all of their money, their assisted living parents' money, and junior's college money into SIB's awesome return CDs. Yesterday, they were calling local attorneys completely panic-stricken wondering what options that they may have to recoup some of their money. The usual line has been "I'll see what I can do, but you might as well consider it gone." Now these people--50-60 yo--are looking into moving in with their elderly parents, elderly parents moving in with them, and all other sorts of arrangements that they would've previously thought odd or laughable.
While Madoff affected many in the Jewish community, SIB is affecting many people who looked at the Madoff victims and scoffed...
Collapsing economy, farmers and other producers in big financial trouble (=narrowing supply), government starting to print money and all kinds of budgets shot to hell, thanks to tax revenues collapsing and two wars to be financed. Perfect recipe for HYPERINFLATION. It is coming and both Denninger and Mish are WRONG!
If US has lost 2 million jobs to outsourcing and imported 2 million workers on HB-Visa's what does this say about who we are.
Rich
at this point gold or silver. I think there is a lot of overhead supply on Gold above 1000
I'd agree, but maybe 1200.
So gold then over silver?
Samdog writes:
...Wow, you're in a crappy mood today ...
I am sorry.
Actually I am more disappointed than crappy.
Hoped you would discuss today how to pay back your debts .
I think there is a lot of overhead supply on Gold above 1000
Tim and Mr Potatoe Head | 02.19.09 - 11:20 am | #
-----
Physical silver is above 14 oz/USD and if you are a retail buyer (>100 oz/purchase), silver is back to toeing the 20 oz/USD line. If I can find it anywhere online for less than 20 oz/USD (including s/h, tax, insurance, etc), I'm scooping it up. Gold may be a trap--which I don't think 1000 oz/USD is--but I don't see silver moving back to its 9.75 oz/USD line during this volitility.
"UBS will release the names of clients that used their bank to skirt paying taxes..."
QUITE SERIOUSLY. I would LOVE to see a confidential leak of the list of depositors originating from the IRS. Talk about a privacy concern!
u
I like silver here too. If the trade is real we should see it moving toward 18-20 where it will hit its head... badly
That's why it's a rumour. On the one hand, I seriously doubt they can physically limit bank balances, and it's not like they can pay a punitively low rate since they've already gone to zirp. On the other hand, I think the Fed is so frustrated with the interbank market right now they're looking into hiring the Sopranos to suggest to the money center banks it might be in their interest to step up their lending to one another. The Tony Soprano moment in this case would be the Fed making it known that swimming with the fishes = nationalization.
anyone hear about CA tax hike? Anyone?
\t
Tim and Mr Potatoe Head | 02.19.09 - 11:18 am | #
Sales tax +1.25% going to +1.125% when Stimpak comes.
Vehicle Reg 1.4% almost double.
No new income taxes or gas taxes.
June(?) election to approve more bond debt.
Details on my blog.
BAC almost has a 3 handle...BFF for BAC??
Sorry u=yagij
Thanks Rob
C&C - we would see a govt. coup before that happens
Median income to median home price is now at 3.12...back to 2001 levels...pre-bubble amounts
Hoped you would discuss today how to pay back your debts .
Werner
Werner,
That's the big worry on everyone's mind.
Unfortunately, I think the answer comes when 1 USD = $1 Zimbabwean.
*in my tow
For months, I've been telling people to buy gold and silver. Almost nobody listened.
Over the past week, I've talked to several of those people, and they all are saying: "Is it too late?"
They want in. They wish they were in. Even some really conservative old folks who stick to CDs.
Cramer has done nothing but p*ss on gold for months. Last night, he was telling everybody to buy it.
So, the fools will rush in.
$200 higher, we can jump out.
I just read some of those CA budget details...
You know I vote dem more than rep.. but I think they are all idiots.... I wish someone would explain to the idiot democrats that sales tax increases HURT POOR PEOPLE AND ARE EXTREMELY REGRESSIVE
F-ing idiots
My question is why the SEC always comments after shit hits the fan. Asshats!
"Filing a case in the civil courts against Sir Allen, the SEC described the case as "fraud of shocking magnitude that has spread its tentacles throughout the world".
*in my town
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 11:29 am | #
Bakersfield is still a town? Wow, doing better than I expected.
Cramer has done nothing but p*ss on gold for months. Last night, he was telling everybody to buy it.
I saw that sh*t. This may mark some kind of top now if Cramer gets on board
Barley, "shocking" seems to be the word du jour lately...funny huh?
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.
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Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
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-30 is the new +10
The income tax increases won't help any "struggling" homeowners either.
Rob loved the picture..
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_zqzPMzXNGso/SZ1vPASYzrI/AAAAAAAADKY/i5mGKABe4P0/s1600-h/050414_smoke_signals_hmed.hmedium.jpg
I just read some of those CA budget details...
You know I vote dem more than rep.. but I think they are all idiots.... I wish someone would explain to the idiot democrats that sales tax increases HURT POOR PEOPLE AND ARE EXTREMELY REGRESSIVE
-30 is the new +10 | 02.19.09 - 11:30 am | #
It wasn't about "fair." It was and remains about possible. There is no blood left in the progressive taxation stone. Attempts to further soak the rich and/or businesses were privately acknowledged to have likely negative returns. They needed money so they went to the only places left. And if my math is correct this will push LA County sales taxes to 10%. That'll probably mark a tolerance threshold.
Interesting blaring headline on Drudge
AP'Shadow writes:
...If US has lost 2 million jobs to outsourcing and imported 2 million workers on HB-Visa's what does this say about who we are...
Shrewd traders. Exchanged 2 million (unskilled) jobs against 2 million highly skilled HB-Visa workers.
Good deal for you, I think.
Dawg writes:
It wasn't about "fair." It was and remains about possible. There is no blood left in the progressive taxation stone. Attempts to further soak the rich and/or businesses were privately acknowledged to have likely negative returns.
I agree with the first part. The package was shaped by politics.
I disagree with the second part. Sure, Dawg and someone else privately acknowledged that increased income taxes on high earners would have negative returns, but that does not make it true.
The sales tax should not have been hiked.
Some new high end tax brackets should have been introduced and set to higher rates, and the lower brackets should have been given relief.
And, last but not least, since we are in the realm of "should," Prop 13 should be scrapped and replaced with a gradually implemented system of current assessed value property taxation (exemptions for fixed and low income folks) and a simple majority vote for budgets.
Werner....Yep' It fixed US right up didn't it.
AP'Shadow writes:
...Yep' It fixed US right up didn't it...
Well, I didn't say that, but an exchange of 2 million (unskilled) jobs against 2 million highly skilled HB-Visa workers certainly must have helped the US. Don't you agree ?
and someone else privately acknowledged that increased income taxes on high earners would have negative returns, but that does not make it true.
The sales tax should not have been hiked.
Some new high end tax brackets should have been introduced and set to higher rates, and the lower brackets should have been given relief.
And, last but not least, since we are in the realm of "should," Prop 13 should be scrapped and replaced with a gradually implemented system of current assessed value property taxation (exemptions for fixed and low income folks) and a simple majority vote for budgets.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:41 am | #
True or not the private analysis won out. Who can tell if it was true? I tend to believe it but don't ask me to prove it.
You are so very correct that the sales tax should not have been raised. IMO it will spur an underground economy that will drain potential revenue for a very long time.
The mechanics and distribution of the income tax burden make it impossible to give relief to the low end although there might have been room for a tick or two to the top brackets.
Prop 13 is the only bright spot in the budget. Yes, it has returned more money y-o-y. I'd be wary about scrapping the only thing left that works as a reliable source of revenue.
And if my math is correct this will push LA County sales taxes to 10%. That'll probably mark a tolerance threshold.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 11:35 am | #
Couple more % and we can call it a VAT tax or a flat tax or...
Of course we didn't eliminate any of the other taxes so I guess in its purist form it is just a Very Awful Tax.
Dawg
Politics shaped the specifics of the budget. Not much else.
I do not at all see why the income tax could not be made more progressive, a little steeper with more steps on the high end and lighter on the low end. Of course it can be done, technincally speaking. The problem is political, and only political, as far as I can see.
Prop 13 returns money y-o-y? huh????? how do you figure that? among its many other faults, Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State. Even if Prop 13 somehow produces more revenue for the State, which I doubt, it substantially drains revenue from the State to compensate counties for their losses under Prop 13.
Comrade Kristina writes:
"I don't think just because someone's underwater they say I don't have to stay there. But they're supposed to pay the mortgage, and we should teach the American people, you're supposed to meet your obligations, not run from them.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:02 am | #
He should try a little of that medicine himself...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 11:06 am | #
The new phrase that I hope makes it into everyone's vocabulary is: RATIONAL DEFAULT
Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:54 am | #
No, no, no, no. A common myth. In 1978 the same year that Prop 13 passed there was a State Supreme Court ruling that stripped local school districts from self funding in favor of a Statewide supposed level funding mandate. It was this latter that cause the problems you cite and had nothing to do with Prop 13. They just both happened at the same time.
he's made the headline on Drudge
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