Still waiting for SPF, BZH, DHI, PHM, HOV and MHO to follow them to the courthouse. Seriously, with this sort of excess supply of houses on the market, why does the country need a homebuilding industry?
NJ Star Ledger had an article on Sunday on the age-restricted market going "ice-cold." Supposedly more than a decade!
"Baby boomers who were expected to "trade down" to age-restricted condominiums or townhouses are also deciding to age in place, Otteau said. Many cannot sell their homes. Others are taking in adult children and their families. That leaves the state's vast amount of age-restricted housing in limbo. Otteau estimates there is enough age-restricted housing built and in the pipeline to meet demand for the next 15 to 20 years. "
Sexy Derivative writes:
OT: Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
No their not. Obama said so....they will have the benefit of living in better neighborhoods with all the much happier, less-often-foreclosed-upon over-extended, underwater neighbors their tax dollars bailed out.
And the tailpipe exhaust they will suck down will be from new cars with tax breaks that have much lower emissions than the cars they replaced.
And please tell them about the incredible values they can get in Detroit. Michigan has many Arabs... Rent control? Don't worry, nobody's really paying those rents.
OT: Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
Sexy Derivative
.
That's pertinent, not OT at all. Why should they have to subsidize the folly of others?
Dawg - I'll try to dig up some info for ya. In the mean time you can research "public transit", "urban economics", "ridership".
I boils down to a value equasion: cheaper to use public transport vs your own vehicle...even tho there is less economic activity (higher unemployment) further there is less value placed on time, so any opportunity cost of using public transport is null and finally reliability - I know I'm going to get there weather be damed.
I expect some of the age-restricted communities to give up the restrictions if things get bad enough.
Bob Dobbs
Problem is, at least around here, that giving up age restrictions leads to problems with the people they already sold to.
More importantly, the reason they build age-restricted around here is that the local government makes you build a new school for every standard non-restricted community that goes up. If you open up to non-restricted buyers, you may owe the .gov a school.
on C and BAC, from last thread, and in re t comments on this thread
hoocoodanode that Geithner's non-plan coupled with a stress test could sink C and BAC shares closer and closer to zero, virtually forcing their pre-privatization only a few weeks (more or less) after Obama legitimized discussion of the Swedish Model on Nightline.
hoocoodnode??????
why, you'd have to be able to think two steps ahead to plan something like that.
Kind of like gaming the Democratic primaries by going all-out in the caucus states while smart insiders like the Clinton machine knew they would win it all on Super Tuesday.
My short de Jour is IBM. I'm buying some longer dated puts. 4Q earnings were surprisingly strong, and the shares have seen a pretty good runup. But I suspect they've been playing games with their reserves -- every large company packs in some cushion during the good times. But I think they've used up their get out of jail free card. Their recently announced layoffs are the first signs that everything is not as it appears.
Tech spending is going to be far worse than anybody here thinks. Companies across the board are going to be delaying IT projects, cutting back on consulting, and reducing capex. I will argue that IBM should be disproportionately hit.
More importantly, the reason they build age-restricted around here is that the local government makes you build a new school for every standard non-restricted community that goes up. If you open up to non-restricted buyers, you may owe the .gov a school. \t giacutter | \t \t \t \t02.19.09 - 12:04 pm | #Issues of tax advantages, too.
Owners from one bubble buying a construction firm in another bubble. Some Investor Guy | 02.19.09 - 12:04 pm | #
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
And how many Americans were busy buying condos in Camden. That didn't work out so good either
Short IBM is a good call. They evicerated much of their core senior and knowledgable staff in favor of the low cost, less value staff. They shifted their emphasis to China/India for longterm plans of replacing US services to the Asian services market. Perhaps they made the mistake like I did of backing decoupling too strongly. Doesn't matter. The fundementals are all there.
Regulators told U.S. Bancorp not to talk about the transaction or the uses for the $6.6 billion received through the federal bank-rescue program, Chief Executive Officer Richard Davis said in a Feb. 17 speech in Minneapolis. The Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed to give well-capitalized banks like U.S. Bancorp cash to buy weaker banks, he said.
I joked that Bush had looted the treasury and the banks and the Democrats were going to be angry that there was nothing left to steal when they got in power. They just don't get the joke. They're trying to steal stuff that's not there. The job is not to steal more; it's to rebuild. Running up more debt on a credit card with a $20K balance and difficult repayment prospects is not the solution.
Almost all builders build until they drop, then they declare bankruptcy and start all over, regardless of country. Even more fucked up sector than ambulance chasers.
Which is why I got out of OC and CA. Suppose the usual secession talk will start creeping back into the Opinion Sections regarding NoCal verses SoCal. Always a hoot.
Gav - You have a good arguement. Most IT is contract, in a retrenchment, contract players usually go first and outsourcing agreements are often modified. Since I dont see (and gosh I'm no expert) any big tech. leaps, todays toys will last another day or two.
Is it my imagination, or did we go from 600k job loss per MONTH to 600k job loss per WEEK?
"unemployment benefits totaled 627,000 last week, the same as the previous week"
Learner | 02.19.09 - 12:01 pm | #
Apples and oranges, even in boom times new claims are a positive number. It is gross and does not reflect people getting hired and going off UE, the increase in continuing claims is a closer, but not exact, proxy for the job losses that will show up in the monthly report.
Barley, I'd expect that long-term contracts are one of the reasons for IBM's surprising resilience to date. It takes some time for those to work out of the system, so naturally their earnings haven't fallen off as fast as new contracts. Given that weakness in the real economy started in about Q1 of last year, I'm expecting some sharp declines to start showing up.
On Topic: Corporate BK should be abolished. Individual only. If the home building market ever comes back these guys will just reorganize and start the Ponzi all over again.
Corporate BK is the biggest bailout in history, by far.
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
xxxxx
.
And in Oregon. There are real estate agents who do nothing but shunt foreigners into overpriced properties. Not just Californians, but Asians as well. Even at inflated prices, you can buy a ranch in Oregon for the price of a condo in Tokyo. And Northern California prices, in the coastal counties, are still much higher than Oregon.
There is still, evidently, some cashing out going on from say, the foggy parts of Sonoma and Mendocino County to the foggy parts of northwestern Oregon. Nearly identical climate, wine country, etc. That's one reason we have been behind the curve. This spring I expect we break that pattern, though.
Or Camden residents buying places in Spain, I guess......
You are talking about Camden, UK, right?
Camden, Compton, they were all going to be good. Chic urban oasis with a bit of edge, coffee bars, cougars on the prowl, synergy, and chrome spots illuminating all of it.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Ê Americans' retirement assets declined 5.9% in the third quarter to $15.9 trillion even before the U.S. stock market reached its November low, according to the Investment Company Institute. Ê Individual investors lost significant chunks of their retirement savings during the market's slow-motion crash last autumn. Since then dozens of companies, looking to cut costs, have ended contributions to employees' 401(k) plans. Ê The institute said the $15.9 trillion accounted for 35% of all household financial assets in the U.S. at Sept. 30. That figure is off from $16.9 trillion on June 30.
To understand the dilemma facing Mr. Geithner and the Obama Administration, you could do a lot worse than read Catch-22 (something I have also found to be true of life in general.) Because unfortunately, Hellers chocolate-covered cotton metaphor rather precisely describes the estimated $2 or $3 trillion in "legacy" assets to use the administrations preferred euphemism clogging the arteries of the global financial system.
Except that while chocolate-covered cotton at least has some novelty value, most -- if not all -- of Big Shitpile (to use Atrioss favorite euphemism, and mine) has none.
This, in turn, means it would literally be easier to square a circle, or maybe invent a perpetual motion machine, than to devise a plan that a.) lifts Big Shitpile off the balance sheets of the banks, while at the same time leaving them b.) solvent and c.) in the hands of private investors.
These are simply not realistic policy objectives in fact, they are mutually exclusive, as even Alan Greenspan now seems prepared to admit.
So when Geithner talks about harnessing the power of private capital to "start" a market for Big Shitpile by coaxing hedge funds and other bottom feeders into offering bids that banks teetering on the edge of insolvency just might be willing to accept hes not fooling himself, although he may be trying to fool us. I think he knows how implausible it is, just as Milo actually understood the truth about his cotton.
"Its indigestible, Yossarian emphasized. "It will make them sick, dont you understand? Why dont you try living on it yourself if you dont believe me?"
"I did try," admitted Milo gloomily. "And it made me sick."
But to understand why Big Shitpile is just that with hardly any ponies hidden at the bottom for eager prospectors to dig up it worth taking a look at how the stinking heap was created in the first place. As it turns out, Ive been spending much of my professional time lately studying what happened in the credit markets during the bubble years, so I think I have a slightly better grasp than I did at the time, when I only thought it would lead to a nasty financial crisis, as opposed to Great Depression II.
The broad story is well known, even to the cable TV pinheads: Housing Bubble + Subprime Mortgage Lending + Derivatives = Armageddon. (The numerical illiterates at Fox News would probably add ACORN to that equation.) But even now Im not sure if many people fully understand just how insanely reckless the carnival was, to the point where future historians will speak of "structured finance" in much the same the way we talk about the bubonic plague.
If I just listened to rich, I'd have more money right now. Got out of SLW a while back and definitely too soon. However, I also just sold my SLV for 40% gain, which was nice, and purely due to rich.
I love how the public is still being led to believe that it's possible to extract the bad assets from banks, leave them solvent in the process, and keep them in the hands of private captial...
Capital is in the throws of a violent existential crisis, like a bad acid trip...the scars will run deep
There are real estate agents who do nothing but shunt foreigners into overpriced properties. Not just Californians, but Asians as well. scone | 02.19.09 - 12:20 pm | #
Rob Dawg writes:
Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:54 am | #
No, no, no, no. A common myth. In 1978 the same year that Prop 13 passed there was a State Supreme Court ruling that stripped local school districts from self funding in favor of a Statewide supposed level funding mandate. It was this latter that cause the problems you cite and had nothing to do with Prop 13. They just both happened at the same time.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:03 pm | #
No, Dawg, Prop 13 did make counties dependent on the state by stripping counties of their ability to collect sufficient property taxes. This also caused counties to rely more on sales taxes, which they could still control.
The Serrano cases that started in 1968 concerned whether property taxes should be the only source of school funding. The Serrano cases did lead to more state involvement to provide minimal support to schools in poorer areas.
But Prop 13 walloped county financing and shifted a large burden to the state immediately. State spending per capita went up 1/3 immediately for this reason.
Afet his career was for all intent over, Smokin Joe was being interviewed by an SI guy over lunch. Frazier insisted he could make a comeback, he'd been in the gym, his weight was right, his mind was good, he kept on. The SI guy just listened, nodded, listened. After a few minutes, Joe stopped, lookad at the SI guy and asked, "I think I'll get get some dessert, ya want some?" The SI guy pointed to Joe's unfinished cherry pie. The interview was over. And, in some ways, this punchy market is over. Sure it'll rally and stuff, but we know it's over. Go home Smokin Joe. Please, don't embarrass yourself.
Meredith Whitney: So Long, and Thanks for All the Dish
After dishing on banks for some time, banker-bear Meredith Whitney is apparently leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm. StreetInsider has the story:
Uber-bearish banking analyst Meredith Whitney is reportedly leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm. Meredith has become a star for her prescient calls on the banks, like Citi (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). She was telling people to sell them while others were screaming buy. We all know what has happened. Assuming she is not leaving to start an investment management firm, this could be a smart move for her. Mind you, we will now have an endless list of people say that this represents a bottom in banking. Sigh.
Camden, Compton, they were all going to be good. Chic urban oasis with a bit of edge, coffee bars, cougars on the prowl, synergy, and chrome spots illuminating all of it.
nova | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:21 pm | #
I actually heard someone use the term 'synergy' in an entirely non-ironic context only about 2 weeks ago.
I remember reading billmon in the beginning years of the the Iraq War, I don't know if people here are familiar with the fact that he ran his own blog then called The Whiskey Bar.
Those were good times, and really the years when I first began to understand how big this was going to get.
Isn't this like Congress yelling at the Bankers last week? Easy pickins. So predictable.
We could get mired in "Santelli is right" and "why do we need to bail out the deadbeats" and so on.
But I think the main point is that this is a dynamic we're going to see played out by many participants. Things are getting tough, people get angry, they look for someone to blame. Scapegoating. Defending the tribe.
I expect to see this played out more and more on the international level. China and Europe blaming the U.S. Germany angry at France or Italy or Latvia.
I just don't see anger being productive here. I understand the anger, sure, but the way you get out of a bad situation is by staying calm, planning, working pragmatically.
Beating one's chest and shouting "they're wrong, I'm right" -- easy to do, but not exactly helpful.
Soooo, the Santelli rabble rousing started with an ad for a new CNBC series called the NBOC's. New Black Over Class.
I am not making this up. Phase 2 of societal collapse is exacerbating ethnic divisions. Works around the world when corporations want to rob a country's resources. Create ethnic divide and then back one tribe.
I was wondering. Can I call you "Sconey" when nobody is around? You know, when the visitor count is under 400?
nova
.
If you like. But since the handle refers to the Stone, in part, it sounds weird to me with a 'y.' Anyway, must dash, errands today in the so-called Real World.
Uh, km4, have you ever read about brownfields? Many of them were literally covered toxic waste, unlike the financial products which are just figuratively or metaphorically toxic waste.
There are a number of interesting techniques used to make brownfields desirable again. Since what secure much of the financial toxic waste is actual real estate, I think spending a few minutes looking at successful revival of brownfields is worthwhile.
By the way, for any of you tech minded folks out there if the market closes here today, we have a confirmed Dow Theory sell signal. Never been a huge tech analysis guy, but at least the dow theory makes some sense fundimentally, and when the technicals confirm the fundimentals they can help in timing. I have to re think my thoughts about an intermediate bear mkt rally coming.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements. . . . . Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, Nemo and Counterpoint.
It looks like the Democrats Pilot Program for Communism in California has been a complete failure. I'm also saying the Republicans are just as complicit in the failed experiment. I'm not going to go into details as to why the pilot program failed, you can do your own research on the Internet if you have the wherewithal to sift through fact and fiction.
I give you these pieces of wisdom however;
Absolute corruption corrupts, absolutely.
We do have a blueprint for success already given to us by the founding fathers, it's called The Constitution, try it sometime.
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, Nemo and Counterpoint.
CRbot | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:38 pm | #
Maybe Meridith will offer..ah comment.
Mind you, we will now have an endless list of people say that this represents a bottom in banking. Sigh.
FFDIC | 02.19.09 - 12:25 pm | #
Of course it's a bottom!
Ignoring the fact that credit is still collapsing, unemployment is at its worst in decades, future earnings have not been yet factored into the S&P... sure. Bottom. Ya.
It's a good day when I get a rant from Santelli on TV...followed by the ever-consistent Jas Jain right here. These two guys need a radio show. I'd listen every day.
I'm reading the way the politics of this is going, and in that context the CME boys on CNBC (these CME guys and CNBC don't mean that much in themselves, but I am speaking of them symbolically as representatives of Wall St culture in a broad & metaphorical way) and Mr Dimon are making themselves into ugly and inviting targets of popular wrath, and they are doing so nationalization, re-regulation, and a need to shift tax burdens draws near.
" its also entirely possible that an expectations trap will drive the Obama boys [Timmy and Larry] there [nationalization] whether they want to go or not. The more the markets discount the risk of nationalization, the weaker the banks get, and the weaker the banks get, the more likely nationalization becomes. We may be more than halfway there already."
More than halfway there, I am certain.
Hoocoodanode
JPM may not get nationalized, but I think it will get broken up, eventually.
Jamie Dimon is practically egging on the populists to come at him with pitchforks.
Rich, if you're ever up in Seattle I'll provide a real one. I already bought back in SLW at $6.82, so I just saved about 8% on a one day exit.
Not sure if you saw my comments from last night, but I think gold might be having a pullback soon. Too much CNBC pumping...and from the comments I'm seeing everywhere the trade is looking very crowded.
Given the gold/oil ratio, it might be a good time to pair a trade: long oil, short gold.
I just can't get too upset at hiding money from the government. Bush would have wasted it anyway. Mebbe O will put the fines etc, to more productive use.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
...I will argue that IBM should be disproportionately hit...
I am not convinced .
a) Roughly half of their profits comes from running other companies IT stuff and that is done in "long term" contracts (5 years or longer).
b) Historically they have done very well during recessions. Recessions seem to call for improved efficiency and better IT is a tool for that.
...Their recently announced layoffs are the first signs that everything is not as it appears...
They were much smaller than anticipated. And e.g. cutting 5% would be healthy in that you cut the deadwood.
We will see, but the recently rumored 15000 cut has not materialized. And that would be less than 5% !!
"Oklahoma City police officer pulls man over for anti-Obama sign on vehicle"
The Secret Service even "walked through" the man's house to check it out. They called him first and said they wouldn't ransack it though - awful thoughtful of them!
The sign said "Abort Obama Not The Unborn"
Did I hear someone say 1st Amendment rights or Police State? Jeeminy!
If I understand you correctly, I've also reached the conclusion that markets don't accurately value 'human capital' and are now (and will continue) to pay the price.
As we continue in this death spiral, socialism will be a welcome blessing. It's slow, inefficient, and boring -- but at least people have stable employment and income to buy the goods & services that are necessary.
Obama & Co is the ideal team to preside over times like these: if you're going to be a socialist country, may as well have true socialists running it.
Did I hear someone say 1st Amendment rights or Police State? Jeeminy! Black Star Ranch | 02.19.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Political speech is the most protected speech in the country, but he was pushing the bounds of that right. Aborting could be contrued as killing, and IIRC, calling for someone's killing is comparable to muslim fatwa to do the same, and we don't want to be in that company. Additionally, Obama is our President, like it or not, and this warrants additional concern.
I'll also argue that this is a depression, not a recession. And how many depressions have there been since IBM has been around?
Your point about the 5-year contracts is valid. They will still start rolling off.
The efficiencies and savings from superior IT are dubious -- companies are looking to survive, not to spend millions on projects with uncertain ROI. The low hanging fruit has been picked already.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
...I'll also argue that this is a depression, not a recession...
You are right in that.
But for the rest : How many crappy predictions (about all kinds of things) have I seen here. When the actual data come out and contradict these "hot air" predictions, the herd has moved on and nobody is interested anymore about the crap they said back then.
So, except you have some real good insider information (not rumors, but data) lets just wait for the actual facts.
Yay!
WL we hardly knew ye...
Guess Southern California housing futures finally got fully "priced in".
Survived which depression?
Rumors have been circulating that the company â sold for $1 billion to Emaar Properties of the United Arab Emirates in June 2006
Bwaa, hahahaha.
The probably should have bought sand instead.
Still waiting for SPF, BZH, DHI, PHM, HOV and MHO to follow them to the courthouse. Seriously, with this sort of excess supply of houses on the market, why does the country need a homebuilding industry?
Lost $1 billion? What smallfry!
The rest of the SWFs will get taken down as well as deflation is transmitted globally.
--bh
US and A still creating goodwill across the globe. At what point to foreign investors say "F it"?
Also, ot, what's a good "jump in" point on SLW?
I'd like to know where that billion went, just say'
A bad investment, but a great sale. Like Stuy Town . . . but I wonder if the buyer was as clever with their financing as Tishman Speyer was.
Owned by this company:
Home - Emaar
"Seriously, with this sort of excess supply of houses on the market, why does the country need a homebuilding industry?
Dirk van Dijk"
With the 5 year carryback provision gone from the final bill, these guys will be gone within the year.
Hey Rich,
Thanks for the warning about earnings on SLW. I stopped out yesterday afternoon, and you saved me some coin. I owe you a beer.
OT: Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
Rich is owed a lot of beers.
NJ Star Ledger had an article on Sunday on the age-restricted market going "ice-cold." Supposedly more than a decade!
"Baby boomers who were expected to "trade down" to age-restricted condominiums or townhouses are also deciding to age in place, Otteau said. Many cannot sell their homes. Others are taking in adult children and their families. That leaves the state's vast amount of age-restricted housing in limbo. Otteau estimates there is enough age-restricted housing built and in the pipeline to meet demand for the next 15 to 20 years. "
Age-restricted housing market goes ice-cold - NJ.com
More here:
Emaar USA - John Laing Homes - Emaar
Santelli vs Liesman on CNBC.
Wait for a clip to be available.
"Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
Sexy Derivative"
If they are fit from riding their bikes alot and are pretty, I bet they are getting screwed by more than the bailout packages.
Not a very good $1 billion investment.
Don't think of it as a billion dollars. Think of it as 6.8 million barrels (~4 tankers) of $147 oil that were lying around doing nothing anyway.
Sexy Derivative writes:
OT: Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
No their not. Obama said so....they will have the benefit of living in better neighborhoods with all the much happier, less-often-foreclosed-upon over-extended, underwater neighbors their tax dollars bailed out.
And the tailpipe exhaust they will suck down will be from new cars with tax breaks that have much lower emissions than the cars they replaced.
Glass half full, remember?
"NJ Star Ledger had an article on Sunday on the age-restricted market going "ice-cold." Supposedly more than a decade!"
I expect some of the age-restricted communities to give up the restrictions if things get bad enough.
Please apologize to our foreign investors.
And please tell them about the incredible values they can get in Detroit. Michigan has many Arabs...
Rent control? Don't worry, nobody's really paying those rents.
OT: Renters who ride bikes are getting screwed with these bailout packages.
Sexy Derivative
.
That's pertinent, not OT at all. Why should they have to subsidize the folly of others?
Dawg - I'll try to dig up some info for ya. In the mean time you can research "public transit", "urban economics", "ridership".
I boils down to a value equasion: cheaper to use public transport vs your own vehicle...even tho there is less economic activity (higher unemployment) further there is less value placed on time, so any opportunity cost of using public transport is null and finally reliability - I know I'm going to get there weather be damed.
Glass half full, remember?
giacutter
Yes, but I'm the glass is half full of piss type of guy.
--bh
*they're
Liesman called the traders around Santelli a bunch of "thugs". It was wildly inappropriate.
Is it my imagination, or did we go from 600k job loss per MONTH to 600k job loss per WEEK?
"unemployment benefits totaled 627,000 last week, the same as the previous week"
BWAHAHAHA BAC has a 3 handle...die...
Well, well, well.
Everyone with a brain and following this massive credit crunch wondered who would be the first homebuilder to go under.
And wouldn't 'ya know, it would be an OC builder.
The irony isn't missed here by the OC denizens on this blog, esp. being that it was located in Newport Beach.
You can't make this stuff up!
BAC = C = AIG ....coming soon!
1 currency almost [yogi] writes:
Please apologize to our foreign investors.
And please tell them about the incredible values they can get in Detroit. Michigan has many Arabs...
Quiz time folks! SE Michigan has the second largest population of Arabs outside the Middle East. What region or city has the first largest?
Is it my imagination, or did we go from 600k job loss per MONTH to 600k job loss per WEEK?
Learner | 02.19.09 - 12:01 pm | #
It's not your imagination, it's your attention. IIRC, we've been here for a few weeks now.
The irony isn't missed here by the OC denizens on this blog, esp. being that it was located in Newport Beach.
You can't make this stuff up!
OCDan
Yes, I have a special place in my heart for the home of Fascist Island, behind the Orange Curtain.
--bh
What region or city has the first largest?
Branson, Missouri?
Also, ot, what's a good "jump in" point on SLW?
Support at 6.25 is what I'm looking at.
"What region or city has the first largest?
Sonic Seuss"
Topeka?
Big question for the day: How do you say plastic in Chinese?
BAC = C = AIG ....coming soon!
Bank-rupt | 02.19.09 - 12:01 pm
What ever could you mean?!
I expect some of the age-restricted communities to give up the restrictions if things get bad enough.
Bob Dobbs
Problem is, at least around here, that giving up age restrictions leads to problems with the people they already sold to.
More importantly, the reason they build age-restricted around here is that the local government makes you build a new school for every standard non-restricted community that goes up. If you open up to non-restricted buyers, you may owe the .gov a school.
"What region or city has the first largest?"
My guess would be London, UK.
Big question for the day: How do you say plastic in Chinese?
Barley | 02.19.09 - 12:03 pm
American Express Platinum?
"How do you say plastic in Chinese?
Barley"
Dog food?
I am so sick of Liesman!
He is worse than dennis Kneale!
Liesman is all for capitalism as long as he is making money.
When the eCONomy goes south toward depression, than he is all for goobermint bailout.
The hypocrisy of Liesman and others on that channel is disgusting!
Remember back when having an owner from Dubai was thought to mean access to tons of money?
Owners from one bubble buying a construction firm in another bubble.
Liesman is a Fed apologist. He is expected to support the official position of the Fed.
I am not lucky enough for Liesman to get whacked.
on C and BAC, from last thread, and in re t comments on this thread
hoocoodanode that Geithner's non-plan coupled with a stress test could sink C and BAC shares closer and closer to zero, virtually forcing their pre-privatization only a few weeks (more or less) after Obama legitimized discussion of the Swedish Model on Nightline.
hoocoodnode??????
why, you'd have to be able to think two steps ahead to plan something like that.
Kind of like gaming the Democratic primaries by going all-out in the caucus states while smart insiders like the Clinton machine knew they would win it all on Super Tuesday.
hoocoodanode???
My short de Jour is IBM. I'm buying some longer dated puts. 4Q earnings were surprisingly strong, and the shares have seen a pretty good runup. But I suspect they've been playing games with their reserves -- every large company packs in some cushion during the good times. But I think they've used up their get out of jail free card. Their recently announced layoffs are the first signs that everything is not as it appears.
Tech spending is going to be far worse than anybody here thinks. Companies across the board are going to be delaying IT projects, cutting back on consulting, and reducing capex. I will argue that IBM should be disproportionately hit.
If Michael Jackson thought Dubai was a cool place to hideout - you know it was just a matter of time. Just look what he did to the Nederlands.
I stopped watching CNBC about 9 months ago. It was a smart move. I suggest everyone else do the same.
More importantly, the reason they build age-restricted around here is that the local government makes you build a new school for every standard non-restricted community that goes up. If you open up to non-restricted buyers, you may owe the .gov a school.
\t giacutter | \t \t \t \t02.19.09 - 12:04 pm | # Issues of tax advantages, too.
Owners from one bubble buying a construction firm in another bubble.
Some Investor Guy | 02.19.09 - 12:04 pm | #
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
ok, i think everyone in the world now has rick's attention.
the video won't load. anyone else haveing luck?
Down goes Frazier...
What region or city has the first largest?
Oslo, Norway
NateTG's answer is the closest, but still no cigar.
Blackhat,
Very funny!
It just goes to show that despite the real wealth here in OC, there is still a lot of smoke and mirror games going on with people.
I truly believe that much of the wealth here is fake.
Most people want you to believe that they are wealthy, but the fact is they couldn't come up with $500 in cold hard cash in 1 hour.
I may get flamed for this, but who cares.
These are the same people who go to AM/PM and buy the paper and a cup o joe for $2.35 and charge the darn thing.
I get the rewards deal, but come on!
After trying 3 credit cards, your debit, and then asking the guy behind you for change, aren't you basically broke?
No, they won't take a check for your coffee, esp. from you!
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
And how many Americans were busy buying condos in Camden. That didn't work out so good either
Riding my Ryland short position as long as it takes. You know what the Oracle said: something and hold.
GH,
Short IBM is a good call. They evicerated much of their core senior and knowledgable staff in favor of the low cost, less value staff. They shifted their emphasis to China/India for longterm plans of replacing US services to the Asian services market. Perhaps they made the mistake like I did of backing decoupling too strongly. Doesn't matter. The fundementals are all there.
--bh
Down goes Frazier...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:08 pm | #
Has the market opened yet?!
Brookly
Uhh, down goes frazier? 7,486... she just keeps slumping down...
NateTG's answer is the closest, but still no cigar.
Sonic Seuss | 02.19.09 - 12:09 pm | #
Paris France
hoocoodanode that Geithner's non-plan coupled with a stress test could sink C and BAC shares closer and closer to zero
Of course! It's all a part of the Obama Master Plan!
There's word for this...wait...wait...it's coming to me now...strategery.
I stopped watching CNBC about 9 months ago. It was a smart move. I suggest everyone else do the same.
Watch if for Rick and Art Cashin, sound is off for the rest.
Cairo, Indiana?
Looks like the Dow is firmly below last November's low.
I have my bet in for a bottom of dow 6500-6600 in the next two months.
I can't wait for my F.U.S.A. food debit card.
Cliff-diving again.
Maybe the black swan has been in the room the whole time.
Uhh, down goes frazier? 7,486... she just keeps slumping down...
Hoopajoops LTD | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:10 pm | #
Smokin' Joe would open up a can of good oldfashioned @$$-whoopin' on you
U.S. Offers Discounts to Lure Buyers of Failed Banks (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. Offers Discounts to Lure Buyers of Failed Banks (Update1)
Dont Talk
Regulators told U.S. Bancorp not to talk about the transaction or the uses for the $6.6 billion received through the federal bank-rescue program, Chief Executive Officer Richard Davis said in a Feb. 17 speech in Minneapolis. The Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed to give well-capitalized banks like U.S. Bancorp cash to buy weaker banks, he said.
I joked that Bush had looted the treasury and the banks and the Democrats were going to be angry that there was nothing left to steal when they got in power. They just don't get the joke. They're trying to steal stuff that's not there. The job is not to steal more; it's to rebuild. Running up more debt on a credit card with a $20K balance and difficult repayment prospects is not the solution.
Silly Arabs.
Got taken to the woodshed on that one.
xxxxx writes:
NateTG's answer is the closest, but still no cigar.
Sonic Seuss | 02.19.09 - 12:09 pm | #
Paris France
No more calls, folks. We have a winner.
Almost all builders build until they drop, then they declare bankruptcy and start all over, regardless of country. Even more fucked up sector than ambulance chasers.
OCDan,
Which is why I got out of OC and CA. Suppose the usual secession talk will start creeping back into the Opinion Sections regarding NoCal verses SoCal. Always a hoot.
--bh
nova writes:
Cairo, Indiana?
+1 with a coffee snort
I like watching "Americas Next Top Model" watching that white girl Tyra pretend to be black excites me.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853
GS still spoiling my screen today. Take your time, gentlemen.
you ve got to give credit to a previous executive/owner, he cashed in just in time. LoL
now he can buy it back for under 200 ml, pocket the change and continue family tradition of surviving through recessions, depressions , etc.
Nothing like being lectured on moral hazard by bailed out traders and bankers.
Down goes Frazier...
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:08 pm | #
I knew there was one of these on this thread! LOL! He just go whacked purty hard....
Gav - You have a good arguement. Most IT is contract, in a retrenchment, contract players usually go first and outsourcing agreements are often modified. Since I dont see (and gosh I'm no expert) any big tech. leaps, todays toys will last another day or two.
had a friend who worked for JL, she was part of layoff last mos..
lots of people starting to feel this..
she was still upbeat about re a cple mos. ago
all this just to pull sales forward in the name of greed!
Is it my imagination, or did we go from 600k job loss per MONTH to 600k job loss per WEEK?
"unemployment benefits totaled 627,000 last week, the same as the previous week"
Learner | 02.19.09 - 12:01 pm | #
Apples and oranges, even in boom times new claims are a positive number. It is gross and does not reflect people getting hired and going off UE, the increase in continuing claims is a closer, but not exact, proxy for the job losses that will show up in the monthly report.
Paging Mr. Frazier
Please pick up the Red Courtesy Phone, You're moment of Existential Clarity is on line 1.
Frazier! Pick up the damn phone! Get up. Get up man!
does this mean it is officially worse than the depression...q up the data point
oil is painting weird candlesticks today...
And how many Americans were busy buying condos in Camden. That didn't work out so good either
nova | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:09 pm | #
Or Camden residents buying places in Spain, I guess......
You are talking about Camden, UK, right?
The Troubled Asset Relief Program was designed to give well-capitalized banks like U.S. Bancorp cash to buy weaker banks, he said.
FFDIC
And this is news?
How is Mr. VIX still down on the day?
Just in case Santelli's rant didn't get enough exposure, it's also the headline story, in red letters, on DRUDGE.
Barley,
I'd expect that long-term contracts are one of the reasons for IBM's surprising resilience to date. It takes some time for those to work out of the system, so naturally their earnings haven't fallen off as fast as new contracts. Given that weakness in the real economy started in about Q1 of last year, I'm expecting some sharp declines to start showing up.
New meme: cognitive dissonance
On Topic:
Corporate BK should be abolished. Individual only. If the home building market ever comes back these guys will just reorganize and start the Ponzi all over again.
Corporate BK is the biggest bailout in history, by far.
Yes, that Drudge Panic (tm) will be good for another -100 on the Dow today
Experts, Crashes, Media, Skepticism | The Big Picture
Mr Ritholtz has a good post on experts who got the crash right and those that didnt.
...........................
Emaar is a Dubai govt. corporation just like Dubai Ports World.
Basically you guys did them a big favour when you didn't let them buy your ports.
That's why it didn't look unreasonable. IIRC, the Nipponese bought overpriced property in Australia, Canada, and the US because it looked like a bargain compared to Tokyo.
xxxxx
.
And in Oregon. There are real estate agents who do nothing but shunt foreigners into overpriced properties. Not just Californians, but Asians as well. Even at inflated prices, you can buy a ranch in Oregon for the price of a condo in Tokyo. And Northern California prices, in the coastal counties, are still much higher than Oregon.
There is still, evidently, some cashing out going on from say, the foggy parts of Sonoma and Mendocino County to the foggy parts of northwestern Oregon. Nearly identical climate, wine country, etc. That's one reason we have been behind the curve. This spring I expect we break that pattern, though.
Or Camden residents buying places in Spain, I guess......
You are talking about Camden, UK, right?
Camden, Compton, they were all going to be good. Chic urban oasis with a bit of edge, coffee bars, cougars on the prowl, synergy, and chrome spots illuminating all of it.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Ê Americans' retirement assets declined 5.9% in the third quarter to $15.9 trillion even before the U.S. stock market reached its November low, according to the Investment Company Institute. Ê Individual investors lost significant chunks of their retirement savings during the market's slow-motion crash last autumn. Since then dozens of companies, looking to cut costs, have ended contributions to employees' 401(k) plans. Ê The institute said the $15.9 trillion accounted for 35% of all household financial assets in the U.S. at Sept. 30. That figure is off from $16.9 trillion on June 30.
Hey Scone?
A thought provoking post that blows away anything I have seen on CR.
Chocolate Covered Cotton
by billmon
Wed Feb 18, 2009 at 10:09:39 PM PST
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
Excerpts:
To understand the dilemma facing Mr. Geithner and the Obama Administration, you could do a lot worse than read Catch-22 (something I have also found to be true of life in general.) Because unfortunately, Hellers chocolate-covered cotton metaphor rather precisely describes the estimated $2 or $3 trillion in "legacy" assets to use the administrations preferred euphemism clogging the arteries of the global financial system.
Except that while chocolate-covered cotton at least has some novelty value, most -- if not all -- of Big Shitpile (to use Atrioss favorite euphemism, and mine) has none.
This, in turn, means it would literally be easier to square a circle, or maybe invent a perpetual motion machine, than to devise a plan that a.) lifts Big Shitpile off the balance sheets of the banks, while at the same time leaving them b.) solvent and c.) in the hands of private investors.
These are simply not realistic policy objectives in fact, they are mutually exclusive, as even Alan Greenspan now seems prepared to admit.
So when Geithner talks about harnessing the power of private capital to "start" a market for Big Shitpile by coaxing hedge funds and other bottom feeders into offering bids that banks teetering on the edge of insolvency just might be willing to accept hes not fooling himself, although he may be trying to fool us. I think he knows how implausible it is, just as Milo actually understood the truth about his cotton.
"Its indigestible, Yossarian emphasized. "It will make them sick, dont you understand? Why dont you try living on it yourself if you dont believe me?"
"I did try," admitted Milo gloomily. "And it made me sick."
But to understand why Big Shitpile is just that with hardly any ponies hidden at the bottom for eager prospectors to dig up it worth taking a look at how the stinking heap was created in the first place. As it turns out, Ive been spending much of my professional time lately studying what happened in the credit markets during the bubble years, so I think I have a slightly better grasp than I did at the time, when I only thought it would lead to a nasty financial crisis, as opposed to Great Depression II.
The broad story is well known, even to the cable TV pinheads: Housing Bubble + Subprime Mortgage Lending + Derivatives = Armageddon. (The numerical illiterates at Fox News would probably add ACORN to that equation.) But even now Im not sure if many people fully understand just how insanely reckless the carnival was, to the point where future historians will speak of "structured finance" in much the same the way we talk about the bubonic plague.
read the entire piece
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
Rich is owed a lot of beers.
Very true.
If I just listened to rich, I'd have more money right now. Got out of SLW a while back and definitely too soon. However, I also just sold my SLV for 40% gain, which was nice, and purely due to rich.
thanks, rich.
El Cliffo writes:
Just in case Santelli's rant...
I'd like to hear the floor cheer if the TARP program was pulled immediately!
I love how the public is still being led to believe that it's possible to extract the bad assets from banks, leave them solvent in the process, and keep them in the hands of private captial...
Capital is in the throws of a violent existential crisis, like a bad acid trip...the scars will run deep
There are real estate agents who do nothing but shunt foreigners into overpriced properties. Not just Californians, but Asians as well.
scone | 02.19.09 - 12:20 pm | #
ROFLMAO!
debate with Dawg, continued.
Rob Dawg writes:
Prop 13 makes the counties and school districts depend on funding from the State.
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 11:54 am | #
No, no, no, no. A common myth. In 1978 the same year that Prop 13 passed there was a State Supreme Court ruling that stripped local school districts from self funding in favor of a Statewide supposed level funding mandate. It was this latter that cause the problems you cite and had nothing to do with Prop 13. They just both happened at the same time.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:03 pm | #
No, Dawg, Prop 13 did make counties dependent on the state by stripping counties of their ability to collect sufficient property taxes. This also caused counties to rely more on sales taxes, which they could still control.
The Serrano cases that started in 1968 concerned whether property taxes should be the only source of school funding. The Serrano cases did lead to more state involvement to provide minimal support to schools in poorer areas.
But Prop 13 walloped county financing and shifted a large burden to the state immediately. State spending per capita went up 1/3 immediately for this reason.
This is one of the more thorough analyses I have read:
http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/op/OP_998JCOP.pdf
Afet his career was for all intent over, Smokin Joe was being interviewed by an SI guy over lunch. Frazier insisted he could make a comeback, he'd been in the gym, his weight was right, his mind was good, he kept on. The SI guy just listened, nodded, listened. After a few minutes, Joe stopped, lookad at the SI guy and asked, "I think I'll get get some dessert, ya want some?" The SI guy pointed to Joe's unfinished cherry pie. The interview was over. And, in some ways, this punchy market is over. Sure it'll rally and stuff, but we know it's over. Go home Smokin Joe. Please, don't embarrass yourself.
Hey Scone?
nova
.
Good morning! It's a beautiful day here in the Pac NW!
The good news is Dubai real estate is booming. LOL
I stopped watching CNBC about 9 months ago. It was a smart move. I suggest everyone else do the same.
Elvis | 02.19.09 - 12:06 pm |
I thought CNBC meant Comedy News Broadcasting Company? I have been laughing all this time.
Barley, I was thinking the same thing, funny how there was no "revolt" when it was WAllstreet sucking the gubmint teet...
Meredith Whitney: So Long, and Thanks for All the Dish -- Seeking Alpha
Meredith Whitney: So Long, and Thanks for All the Dish
After dishing on banks for some time, banker-bear Meredith Whitney is apparently leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm. StreetInsider has the story:
Uber-bearish banking analyst Meredith Whitney is reportedly leaving Oppenheimer to start her own firm. Meredith has become a star for her prescient calls on the banks, like Citi (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). She was telling people to sell them while others were screaming buy. We all know what has happened. Assuming she is not leaving to start an investment management firm, this could be a smart move for her. Mind you, we will now have an endless list of people say that this represents a bottom in banking. Sigh.
scone | 02.19.09 - 12:24 pm
I was wondering. Can I call you "Sconey" when nobody is around? You know, when the visitor count is under 400?
The OC homebuilders have never been the same since Caleb Nichol died.
Camden, Compton, they were all going to be good. Chic urban oasis with a bit of edge, coffee bars, cougars on the prowl, synergy, and chrome spots illuminating all of it.
nova | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:21 pm | #
I actually heard someone use the term 'synergy' in an entirely non-ironic context only about 2 weeks ago.
I remember reading billmon in the beginning years of the the Iraq War, I don't know if people here are familiar with the fact that he ran his own blog then called The Whiskey Bar.
Those were good times, and really the years when I first began to understand how big this was going to get.
Re: Santelli firing up the CME traders.
Isn't this like Congress yelling at the Bankers last week? Easy pickins. So predictable.
We could get mired in "Santelli is right" and "why do we need to bail out the deadbeats" and so on.
But I think the main point is that this is a dynamic we're going to see played out by many participants. Things are getting tough, people get angry, they look for someone to blame. Scapegoating. Defending the tribe.
I expect to see this played out more and more on the international level. China and Europe blaming the U.S. Germany angry at France or Italy or Latvia.
I just don't see anger being productive here. I understand the anger, sure, but the way you get out of a bad situation is by staying calm, planning, working pragmatically.
Beating one's chest and shouting "they're wrong, I'm right" -- easy to do, but not exactly helpful.
--
What part of the Greater Depression don't born-and-bred American dopes and rogue economists, including Roubini and Krugman, don't understand?
The true Wealth Of Nations IS in its people. How many of you dopes here have studied Adam Smith in the past ten years?
AMERICA'S GREATEST SUCCESS SINCE THE WW-II HAS BEEN IN BREEDING CROOKS AND DOPES! And the Greater Depression would prove that fact.
Jas
PS: Bought some more UST STRIPS when the long bonds were down 2 points.
Soooo, the Santelli rabble rousing started with an ad for a new CNBC series called the NBOC's. New Black Over Class.
I am not making this up. Phase 2 of societal collapse is exacerbating ethnic divisions. Works around the world when corporations want to rob a country's resources. Create ethnic divide and then back one tribe.
Fully in the Twilight Zone now. Incredible.
America's New Multimillionaires - CNBC
Where are we at:
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
Depression
Hope
Oh and When Bank of America is (finally) nationalized, should Ken Lewis be arrested?
I was wondering. Can I call you "Sconey" when nobody is around? You know, when the visitor count is under 400?
nova
.
If you like. But since the handle refers to the Stone, in part, it sounds weird to me with a 'y.' Anyway, must dash, errands today in the so-called Real World.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov
Synergy is an oldie but goodie. I bet they are using it in meetings in branson, Missouri as we speak. An example:
Dolly Parton is sending her breasts. We expect that to generate a lot of synergy with the Chinese National Hoop Dancers.
km4 writes:
A thought provoking post that blows away anything I have seen on CR.
ermm... ever hear of a writer called Tanta?
Uh, km4, have you ever read about brownfields? Many of them were literally covered toxic waste, unlike the financial products which are just figuratively or metaphorically toxic waste.
There are a number of interesting techniques used to make brownfields desirable again. Since what secure much of the financial toxic waste is actual real estate, I think spending a few minutes looking at successful revival of brownfields is worthwhile.
Some days CNBC looks more and more like Jerry Springer's show with mo betta hoes..
Jerry Springer
Waiting for visitor count to go over 500.
Rick Santelli just blew the roof off this mutha on CNBC. Check Drudge for more details...
MTHood writes:
Re: Santelli firing up the CME traders.
MT,
I see it rather differently.
Santelli and the CME yahoos are like Jamie Dimon lecturing about teaching the American people about their responsibilities.
They've just made themselves sitting ducks. They're going to get stomped.
How so Joe Schmoe?
Sonic Seuss
Dearborn, MI
By the way, for any of you tech minded folks out there if the market closes here today, we have a confirmed Dow Theory sell signal. Never been a huge tech analysis guy, but at least the dow theory makes some sense fundimentally, and when the technicals confirm the fundimentals they can help in timing. I have to re think my thoughts about an intermediate bear mkt rally coming.
--
anon writes: "Soooo, the Santelli rabble rousing started with an ad for a new CNBC series called the NBOC's. New Black Over Class."
How about no one talks about some other Over Class?!
Born-and-bred American dopes are dishonest. America CANNOT avoid collapse.
Jas
Anyone know what's up with HIG today. Down almost 20%.
WTF is up today, Wotif.com Holdings Limited - Google Finance
DOJ says 52K customers of UBS had fraudulent tax dodging accounts...14.8 billion in assets involved...
What region or city has the first largest?
Where ever they shoot 24?
New Thread: Rick Santelli: "Chicago Tea Party in July" ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements.
.
.
.
.
Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
--Your glass-is-half-full-but-its-falling-off-the-table bot.
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, Nemo and Counterpoint.
Krist, you know that's just the tip of the iceberg, ie. that's all they've found so far.
Anyone know what's up with HIG today. Down almost 20%.
frazzle | 02.19.09 - 12:35 pm | #
Nom nom nom.......
Rick Santelli for President.
Video - CNBC.com
It looks like the Democrats Pilot Program for Communism in California has been a complete failure. I'm also saying the Republicans are just as complicit in the failed experiment. I'm not going to go into details as to why the pilot program failed, you can do your own research on the Internet if you have the wherewithal to sift through fact and fiction.
I give you these pieces of wisdom however;
Absolute corruption corrupts, absolutely.
We do have a blueprint for success already given to us by the founding fathers, it's called The Constitution, try it sometime.
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, Nemo and Counterpoint.
CRbot | Homepage | 02.19.09 - 12:38 pm | #
Maybe Meridith will offer..ah comment.
Gavishire,
A cyber beer or a real beer?
I'll take one of both.
Just be sure to get back into some SLW today. I'd say it's pretty straight up to about $9 from here.
Silver just has a lot of strong momentum behind it. SLW is the best way to play silver.
Comrade Kristina writes:
DOJ says 52K customers of UBS had fraudulent tax dodging accounts...14.8 billion in assets involved...
Here's hoping they bust my ex:)
Mind you, we will now have an endless list of people say that this represents a bottom in banking. Sigh.
FFDIC | 02.19.09 - 12:25 pm | #
Of course it's a bottom!
Ignoring the fact that credit is still collapsing, unemployment is at its worst in decades, future earnings have not been yet factored into the S&P... sure. Bottom. Ya.
It's a good day when I get a rant from Santelli on TV...followed by the ever-consistent Jas Jain right here. These two guys need a radio show. I'd listen every day.
DoJ: As many as 52,000 U.S. clients had secret UBS accounts
Hawley Smoot - I am with you two hours of dope bashing and straight talk. Sign me up.
Never Forget,
I'm reading the way the politics of this is going, and in that context the CME boys on CNBC (these CME guys and CNBC don't mean that much in themselves, but I am speaking of them symbolically as representatives of Wall St culture in a broad & metaphorical way) and Mr Dimon are making themselves into ugly and inviting targets of popular wrath, and they are doing so nationalization, re-regulation, and a need to shift tax burdens draws near.
I thought this passage from billmon, cited above (Daily Kos: Chocolate Covered Cotton, is on point:
" its also entirely possible that an expectations trap will drive the Obama boys [Timmy and Larry] there [nationalization] whether they want to go or not. The more the markets discount the risk of nationalization, the weaker the banks get, and the weaker the banks get, the more likely nationalization becomes. We may be more than halfway there already."
More than halfway there, I am certain.
Hoocoodanode
JPM may not get nationalized, but I think it will get broken up, eventually.
Jamie Dimon is practically egging on the populists to come at him with pitchforks.
Rich, if you're ever up in Seattle I'll provide a real one. I already bought back in SLW at $6.82, so I just saved about 8% on a one day exit.
Not sure if you saw my comments from last night, but I think gold might be having a pullback soon. Too much CNBC pumping...and from the comments I'm seeing everywhere the trade is looking very crowded.
Given the gold/oil ratio, it might be a good time to pair a trade: long oil, short gold.
OFF TOPIC:
Why Warren Buffett did not see it coming.
We (mostly amateurs) saw it coming.
I just can't get too upset at hiding money from the government. Bush would have wasted it anyway. Mebbe O will put the fines etc, to more productive use.
Elvis writes:
I stopped watching CNBC about 9 months ago. It was a smart move. I suggest everyone else do the same.
Elvis | 02.19.09 - 12:06 pm | #
I did the same last week. Watch Bloomberg now. Wonder why I didn't make the switch sooner.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
...I will argue that IBM should be disproportionately hit...
I am not convinced .
a) Roughly half of their profits comes from running other companies IT stuff and that is done in "long term" contracts (5 years or longer).
b) Historically they have done very well during recessions. Recessions seem to call for improved efficiency and better IT is a tool for that.
...Their recently announced layoffs are the first signs that everything is not as it appears...
They were much smaller than anticipated. And e.g. cutting 5% would be healthy in that you cut the deadwood.
We will see, but the recently rumored 15000 cut has not materialized. And that would be less than 5% !!
These rumors seem to be just hot air and no beef.
"Oklahoma City police officer pulls man over for anti-Obama sign on vehicle"
The Secret Service even "walked through" the man's house to check it out. They called him first and said they wouldn't ransack it though - awful thoughtful of them!
The sign said "Abort Obama Not The Unborn"
Did I hear someone say 1st Amendment rights or Police State? Jeeminy!
http://www.newsok.com/okc-officer-pulls-man-over-for-anti-obama-sign-on-vehicle/article/3347038?custom_click=headlines_widget
I expect some of the age-restricted communities to give up the restrictions if things get bad enough.
Hudson condo developer seeks buyers 55-plus, or minus
Jas,
If I understand you correctly, I've also reached the conclusion that markets don't accurately value 'human capital' and are now (and will continue) to pay the price.
As we continue in this death spiral, socialism will be a welcome blessing. It's slow, inefficient, and boring -- but at least people have stable employment and income to buy the goods & services that are necessary.
Obama & Co is the ideal team to preside over times like these: if you're going to be a socialist country, may as well have true socialists running it.
Next on the agenda: socialized medicine ...
The sign said "Abort Obama Not The Unborn"
Did I hear someone say 1st Amendment rights or Police State? Jeeminy!
Black Star Ranch | 02.19.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Political speech is the most protected speech in the country, but he was pushing the bounds of that right. Aborting could be contrued as killing, and IIRC, calling for someone's killing is comparable to muslim fatwa to do the same, and we don't want to be in that company. Additionally, Obama is our President, like it or not, and this warrants additional concern.
Want to sell me some puts Werner?
My wins so far: LEH, WM, HIG, GGP, FNM, FRE, BAC, C, Downey, COF, MS, CAT, PRU, MET, SPG, GS, BNI, UNP, WY, SHLD
My losses so far:
Just saying....
Why are OB and Hillarious fiddling with foreign policy issues while home burns?
how much longer can FITB last?
I'll also argue that this is a depression, not a recession. And how many depressions have there been since IBM has been around?
Your point about the 5-year contracts is valid. They will still start rolling off.
The efficiencies and savings from superior IT are dubious -- companies are looking to survive, not to spend millions on projects with uncertain ROI. The low hanging fruit has been picked already.
hoocoodanode???
joe shmoe | 02.19.09 - 12:05 pm | #
(gary high-fives joe shmoe)
It's early yet, but it's only a matter of time before CR enars another $20 on my "no bad bank" wager.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
...I'll also argue that this is a depression, not a recession...
You are right in that.
But for the rest : How many crappy predictions (about all kinds of things) have I seen here. When the actual data come out and contradict these "hot air" predictions, the herd has moved on and nobody is interested anymore about the crap they said back then.
So, except you have some real good insider information (not rumors, but data) lets just wait for the actual facts.
That's one heck of a cash out!
So now he plans to focus on the So Cal home market? I like the never give up attitude but puuh leeease!
My advice: TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!
go explore the world, help out society, live a little.
Black Star Ranch writes:
...The sign said "Abort Obama Not The Unborn"
Did I hear someone say 1st Amendment rights or Police State? Jeeminy!
Does this mean I have to give up my "Buck Fush" tee-shirt?