"Tax cuts and transfers should be targeted to households with a large marginal propensity to consumption. One possible measure in this context would be to increase the size of unemployment benefits and the corresponding period of entitlement. This would also increase the degree of automatic stabilization."
"Tax cuts and transfers should be targeted to households with a large marginal propensity to consumption. One possible measure in this context would be to increase the size of unemployment benefits and the corresponding period of entitlement.
IMO, anyone who gets unemployment benefits should be required to work 2 days per week for the govt while they are getting the benefits.
We could offer taggers an incentive: use water soluble paint and get paid for your work.
reptillian | 02.22.09 - 1:06 pm | #
i like it. i think part of the reason most of it came off was all of the what i call "uv protection" (dirt) that i allowed to accumulate on my car. paint don't stick to dirt so good.
Bubbles:
People who collect unemployment --- in 2009 and beyond --- are struggling to avoid hunger and homelessness. They have already worked hard, but the system threw them under a bus anyway.
Now they are helping raise the kids, they are catching up on 10 years of sleep deprivation, they are fixing all those things around the house that they neglected, and they are doing work under the table and off the books for extra income.
Worrying about the laziness of your neighbors is a dead-end.
The knife catchers are snapping up property based upon optimistic rent projects vs artificially low "alternative investments". In other words, money that would only get 3% in a CD is willing to go after say an 8% return on real estate. That 8% is based only on a projection of course: That projection includes recent historical rent prices in the area with a normal vacancy rate projection. How would you price it vs falling rents and increasing vacancy rates (i.e. job loss in recessions).
Anyone buying residential real estate today as an investment should recheck their assumptions in their formula.
Also consider the opportunity costs on the deal future all-cash purchasers may get if mortgage rates ever are allowed to rise. Consider the purchasing power of cash when you're competing against buyers who have to pay, say 8% for mortgage money.
Cash is still king as the deflationary spiral is still in progress. Time is on your side.
i rented a "million dollar" apartment for 1500 dollars.
Ministry The Fall lyrics Take this invitation Bishops Queen to Pawn All of us were taken All that was is gone Of this information Shames us one and all Where's my compensation? Watching others fall Welcome to the fall Everything is useless Nothing works at all Nothing ever matters Welcome to the fall Welcome to the fall Welcome to the fall Welcome to the fall
The national rental vacancy rate now stands at 10.1 percent.
Las Vegas edged Detroit for the title of America's most abandoned city. Atlanta came in third, followed by Greensboro, N.C., and Dayton, Ohio. Our rankings, a combination of rental and homeowner vacancy rates for the 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the country, are based on fourth-quarter data released Feb. 3 by the Census Bureau. Each was ranked on rental vacancies and housing vacancies; the final ranking is an average of the two.
Empty neighborhoods are becoming an increasingly daunting problem across the country.
Well what do you know... stories about doubling up, falling rents, etc. /shock But all the RE inveestards told me over and over that this couldn't happen and if it did, it wouldn't happen here because of demand from the Bay area.
"The knife catchers are snapping up property based upon optimistic rent projects vs artificially low "alternative investments". In other words, money that would only get 3% in a CD is willing to go after say an 8% return on real estate. That 8% is based only on a projection of course: That projection includes recent historical rent prices in the area with a normal vacancy rate projection. How would you price it vs falling rents and increasing vacancy rates (i.e. job loss in recessions)."
My co-worker owns a house in Vallejo, CA. Bought it for 450k, hit a high of roughly 820k and is now worth 380k.
Knife catchers bought homes in his neighborhood last year and they've already lost 100k and foreclosed again.
I decided to move within my complex from an apartment on the street with no fenced patio to one within the complex with a fenced patio. Was expecting the rent to go from the $1020 I pay now to about $1100-1150. The management company is running a deal that cuts $300 of the monthly rent if you sign a 12 month lease. On one hand I'm happy that the extra cash will help me achieve my goal of becoming debt free by the end of the year. On the other hand I'm a bit nervous about the crowd that might roll on in. Maybe $850 is the new $1150?
Lot's of empty units and every complex on the street has big, colorful Move IN Special signs.
I live just east of downtown Austin. My lease is up at the end of April and my rent will drop from $1782 to $1721 (unprompted). The really amazing thing is that they are willing to drop the rent to 1721 even if I go month-to-month. In the lease I signed 9 months ago the month-to-month rent or any extra months was $2300ish.
Even in Austin, which hasn't had the coastal run-ups in property prices or massive lay-offs rents are dropping.
home debtorship is looking better and better every day. the debtor gets to pay all the neat taxes and hoa fees. they get stuck with all the repair costs. they also have the outrageously fun of trying to sell the house when they want to move. man! now is a great time to buy a home!
The property manager/owner (a large nationwide private firm) of my building is trying a gambol on me (and I assume the other 200 leasees in the building):
My 1 yr lease expires on 3/31/09 and I haven't received the renewal offer letter yet. I asked about this in January, and they said 'all in good time'. I don't think they are trying a forceout because I pay on time, am quiet, and fin. secure.
My guess is that they will get up to 3/1 and present me with about a 6% increase and think I'll fold because I'd have to move in one month. Foolish them. They have a sign in front (next to the one that say's 'luxury apartments') that says 'special move-in accomodations'. LOL.
I wonder if the resident manager has any negotiating leeway. I've been here five years and my impression is that top mgmt. has tight strings from elsewhere.
Does anyone know how they train the local managers to lie?
everything i own is collapsible. except for four boxes of nostalgia, everything i own i need. it all fits in my truck and cargo trailer. my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing.
"Anyone buying residential real estate today as an investment should recheck their assumptions in their formula."
....yeah, like buy a dirt-cheap piece of land that has a well, electric, good southern exposure, and a place to park the RV that's in your driveway now. (1.25+ acres here are becoming more popular for that reason - "survival plots" - $25K m/o/l)
Comrade de Chaos - good link, Mauldin had this up on marketoracle during the week.
I hope he's not right. I've got a bet with a co-worker that southern Europe will blow before Easterern Europe does.
I forget who made the best case for it, maybe Buiter in the FT, but it is worth noting the apparently competitive WASS going on - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain as reflected in their sov CDS blowout & neg watch from ratings, and Eastern Europe's cross-border banking sector exposure being fubar.
Ah well, only a couple of hours before the Asia cycle kicks in. We should have a mollifying announcement from DC by about 5pm EST.
The really amazing thing is that they are willing to drop the rent to 1721 even if I go month-to-month. In the lease I signed 9 months ago the month-to-month rent or any extra months was $2300ish. Kineslaw | 02.22.09 - 1:21 pm | #
renting is nirvana
i won't even view a place if they won't talk short term lease.
you can have a permanent vacation if you pare your possessions.
no property taxes, no interest, no zoning assholes harassing you, no repairs, no 6% commission, no debtor's prison.
and never have to spend money at home depot ever again.
There are alot of people who are getting used to paying no rent to live in a big house. Many many many future renters are living free in their "own" home as they pay off debts and wait for the sheriff to kick them out. I have 5 co-workers and a few friends that have simply stopped paying their mortgage, some for as long a 7 months already, with no action from the lender. They are paying off debt, getting used to living in something they don't "own" and are realizing that their residence is a commodity. How quickly will they want to own again? How much rent are they going to be willing to part with each month (recall going for a year or more of paying $0 to paying say $1000 a month is a relatively high jump-attitudes about how much housing is "worth" are changing rapidly).
Perhaps "owning" a home will be looked at in the future as being a "sucker". Remember when Hummer drivers felt rich and cool?
Once an ignorant prick asshole, always an ignorant prick asshole.
Bush goes to hardware store that offered him a job
DALLAS Former President George W. Bush has visited a Dallas hardware store that earlier this month made him a lighthearted offer to work as a greeter.
Andrea Bond, a manager at Elliott's Hardware, says Bush walked into the store Saturday and quipped: "I'm looking for a job."
Otis O.T. Hertz writes:
everything i own is collapsible. except for four boxes of nostalgia, everything i own i need. it all fits in my truck and cargo trailer. my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing.
reptillian writes:
"We are probably approaching a time when a generation or two will be very wary of buying stocks and real estate."
Maybe, but we're not there yet. All the twenty-something that I know are looking for bargains on stocks and real estate. Not to say they are not wary, but they are interested. I'm thinking we end up with a generation of much smarter investors. It was mostly the boomers and gen-X that got burned, since the Y and Z generations did not have nearly as much at risk.
anon writes:
my sister hasn't paid on her mtg for 14 mos now, no eviction yet..NOD-yes but nothing since then.
should have paid off all debt, saving 36000 over those 14 months..I can only hope
countrywide loan! never missed before reset, won't work with her bcse of 200K home depreciation
inland empire
Average joe is right
No, he is not and neither is your sister. There have been many people over the years who have been upside down on their mortgages and they have paid--people that I know.
declining rents...declining employment, declining everything must put downward pressure on stocks at least until we approach a bottom
which we clearly have not
from bloomberg
"Dow Theory Says Worst Isnt Over for U.S. Stocks as YRC Falls
Email | Print | A A A
By Eric Martin and Cristina Alesci
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- A 125-year-old method for forecasting the market is telling investors the worst isnt over for stocks.
Dow Theory, which holds that simultaneous moves in industrial and transportation shares foreshadow economic activity, indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Averages drop to a six-year low yesterday may presage more losses.
The Dow industrials slumped to 7,365.67 on concern the deepening recession will force the U.S. government to bail out banks. Adherents of Dow Theory say the 30-stock gauge will fall farther because the Dow Jones Transportation Average has slipped to the worst level since September 2003.
When you have that confirmation in both legs, thats clearly negative, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst at Schaeffers Investment Research in Cincinnati. Theres some validity to Dow Theory. "
"Timothy Leary of Geithner writes:
What's it like for you Brits to have cameras following your nearly every move, in public?
Did you get used to it?
Timothy Leary of Geithner | 02.22.09 - 12:33 pm |"
I can't wait for the rioters to take out all those video surveillance cameras. You know, it's really not that difficult. When I was a lad, we used to take out some pretty feisty squirrels on a wire with some rocks with great accuracy.
These wrist sling shots should do the job nicely as well.
Andrea Bond, a manager at Elliott's Hardware, says Bush walked into the store Saturday and quipped: "I'm looking for a job."
Anonymous | 02.22.09 - 1:39 pm | #
He reportedly bought a flashlight and batteries (no joke) to locate his asshole. Elliott's is the most seriously overpriced mom & pop hardware store in Dallas but carries things you will not find at Home Depot and Lowes.
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
If rates ever do skyrocket then anyone with lots of cash and no home to sell will be in a position to buy a home for next to nothing. Just think what would happen to home prices if rates ever go back to say 10%! Those who saved up $200,000 grand to put down on the house of their dreams will now be able to get the whole house!
Cash is king in a deflation. Those with the flexibility to be in cash and able to buy without having sell their old home, and without having to borrow to do so will look like a genius.
Those who will be "confused" will be those who wonder why doing the "right" thing didn't work out.
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
I live in Oakland California, where there are many new units on the market or coming to market. Many can't be sold, and so are being rented out.
My own landlord pre-emptively lowered the rent on the place I've been living in for the last 5 years, by five percent, in exchange for a year lease. They are doing this to keep people from moving into one of these all new units down the block, which are eroding prices in middle to lower end of the market. What this means for me is that the nominal rent on my place has gone up 1% over the last 5 years.
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
You've described a handful of individuals at most.
"He reportedly bought a flashlight and batteries (no joke) to locate his asshole. Elliott's is the most seriously overpriced mom & pop hardware store in Dallas ...
FFDIC | 02.22.09 - 1:43 pm | #
i gotta guess hes gonna need a map and a mirror too
12 of the 30 dow components have been changed in the last 15 years. this, of course, makes historical comparisons COMPLETELY meaningless (before you even consider how the divisor is manipulated).
there is little validity to the dow indicating anything at all, except concealment.
i would be wary of using a faux index like the dow for anything. it is not giving you any usable historical information.
This full duplex in N. Dallas is for sale at $229k nearby. Rents range from $1,200 to $1,800 in the immediate area. A well maintained full duplex w/1 small pool on Airline Rd. recently sold for $400k or about double the asking price of this one with deferred maint. And, Airline Rd. is a much busier street with Hillcrest highschool & stadium traffic.
I am in agreement, cash is king presently , the rent market is very fragmented presently, bubble markets like L Vegas, many areas in Cal. and Fla rent is going down. However there are markets like Mdsn wi, Mpls, and certain subs of chicago that are holding rent rates.
"The really telling part of that advertisement is the phrase "WE ACCEPT LARGE DOGS".
That means the owner is willing to risk insurance claims, property damage, and flea infestations in order to get the units rented.
sm_landlord"
I usually don't like to dis other posters, by really, how ignorant of you. Let's start with the flea thing. That's equally likely with big dogs, small dogs, and cats. By insurance claims, I assume you mean dog bites. If you exclude 3 or 4 breeds (Pit, Rot, Husky, Malamute), you avoid the vast majority of severe bites. Interestingly, those under 25 lb dogs many apartment complexes allow are more likely than most large breeds to bite, Sausage dogs are the most aggressive dogs - Telegraph .
As most Labrador and Collie owners know, they are quite safe.
If it was my complex, I would allow big dogs under a few conditions. 1. Anybody with a dog has to clean up after them. 2. High risk breeds like pit bulls aren't allowed. 3. The leasing agent has to meet your dog. 4. If you feel concerned, have the renters get renters' insurance.
"12 of the 30 dow components have been changed in the last 15 years. this, of course, makes historical comparisons COMPLETELY meaningless (before you even consider how the divisor is manipulated).
there is little validity to the dow indicating anything at all, except concealment.
i would be wary of using a faux index like the dow for anything. it is not giving you any usable historical information."
The DOW theory concentrates on the Dow industrials and the Dow railway components as an indicator of coming economic changes. It doesn't pay attention really to the DOW index by itself.
The theory has some merit given that it tracks the true production economy.
Average Joe writes:
I am not making any point. I am describing the reality that I see.
Just because I predict it doesn't mean I like it or think it's good.
I am not making any moral arguments here people.
This crisis and our response to it is turning things on their head.
You can ignore it all you want. But sometimes how things "are" is different than how they "should" be.
Be prepared for a world where I am right.
That world is the world that we are living in right now. People who will do whatever they have to do for money, immoral or not. How does someone with high morals ever win in a situation like that?
"my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing."
My most valuable possession is my sense of humor. I have been living minimalist for the last 11 years, since the divorce which left me no choice. Maybe that is why I feel no difference in my standard of living, as of yet. I knock on wood here. I was all set to fiance a newer car this year, but now I'm just waiting this thing out. My rent is unchanged this year and no word from my LL (of 10 years) as to lowering or raising. I'm letting it be, we help one another and this house is paid for anyway. I'm concerned about my son in Boston, he attends Berklee college and is renting and looking to move to something better in September since the place he is in has a serious mice/maintenance problem. He and his future room mates found a 3 bedroom off Commonwealth in Allston which seemed like a great deal (1800 a month for a 3 bedroom which has all new upgrades, close to the T and 100 less than what he's paying now)but the realtor told them that they have to put up first now, and then last, sec. and fee which is equal to 3 months rent in 45 days. That was a deal breaker since that would take a good portion of his cash needed for this semester and summer living expenses. Does any one think he may be wise to wait until April or May? Will rents decrease in Boston? I guess that's my burning question. . .
and yet those that didn't overleverage themselves don't get that rent fee option. I used to be really pissed about that until I started helping people find new housing as they loose their jobs, families, homes, etc. You may be able to find a rental that will take you with a sub 600 score, NSFs, and a big dog but it will be in a place you never ever wanted to live.
The funny part is there are places sitting vacant, loosing cash month after month because they won't take a dog (a friend's mom has a seeing eye dog) and they won't reduce from their 'geez I really need to cover this mortgage payment I'm bleeding each month' price. If they'd just get off their high horses, they be loosing a lot less then the 3 to 4 months of rents a vacancy would cost them.
My next big hope is seeing all that freakingly overbuilt CRE because work/live space. Sell me one of those and I'll be a very happy little artist.
They've lowered rents in my building. Catch is, you have to move into a different unit if you want to take advantage of the reduction. Lots of shuffling around going on these past few weeks.
I don't really know. I know we do not arrest people for not paying their mortgage.
They are violating department policy. But so is cheating on your wife..so there you go.
Yes, even those who are supposed to set the example, are setting a bad one.
However, many are unable to pay. I doubt any law can force you to pay money you don't have. They will vacate when asked to I assume. Right now they are probably doing everyone a favor, since a cared for home is better than an empty. Frankly the banks aren't eager to kick anyone to the curb yet, cause then the house deteriorates and they have to pay fines to the city.
(This reminds me of a FDIC story. The FDIC had a large criminal restitution on a guy who could not pay. He was hit by a Mardi Gras parade float, sued and won a large award. The FDIC was about to write off his criminal restitution as uncollectable but found out about the recovery and continued pressing for payment. I don't recall if it ever collected a dime. Many multi-millions in 1980s & 1990s criminal restitutions were written off in the Dallas FDIC office with DC's approval before the 2005 RIF in an attempt to justify downsizing staff. The US lost a huge sum that could have been collected if given more time and resources.
The DOW theory concentrates on the Dow industrials and the Dow railway components as an indicator of coming economic changes. It doesn't pay attention really to the DOW index by itself. Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 1:53 pm | #
garbage in, garbage out.
why not apply this theory you like to s&p equivalents like s&p transports? not like they don't exist.
dow numbers are for propaganda.
hell, sample size of 30 should be a big warning sign to you if you have had a statistics class.
nuthin personal but seriously reconsider what you said for your own good?
"There is no Wall Street. It's gone. There is no Wall Street. It's a street just like Broadway or Madison Avenue now. There are no firms on it. The model of the investment banking firm is gone forever. It will never come back, in my opinion. There are no investment banks."
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities - Bloomberg.com
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China to continue buying U.S. Treasury bonds to help finance President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan, saying “we are truly going to rise or fall together.”
“Our economies are so intertwined,” Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. “It would not be in China’s interest” if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy.
This is of interest. Where I live, rents are going up, which seems to be a good sign, but the rentals are not moving and the supply of rentals is increasing; in addition home prices are stable, but sales are obviously very slow, thus there are people trying to rent to recoup cash flow, but the reality is, both home values and rents will have to fall more.
That third model is gone, because it's been proven without a question of a doubt in the last year that a rumor can put any of these firms at peril. You certainly saw it with us. You saw it with Lehman [Brothers]. Even the firm that I had the most admiration for, Goldman Sachs, found itself the victim of rumors. And Merrill Lynch did. And both of these firms had to convert over the weekend to banks, had to have infusions of capital because they couldn't withstand the self-fulfilling prophecies of the rumors.
This was Warren Buffet's argument as well ... but it seems flawed.
Rumours alone didn't bring down these firms. The fact was the rumours were true ... they were insolvent ... no?
Otis Pain Now Hertz writes:
dumping your particle board crap mansion is not an immoral choice, it is buyer's remorse. dump that lemon. don't look back.
Otis, will you please loan me 300k? I promise to pay it back if my gamble works out...if not, I will get buyers remorse and screw you...nothing immoral you know, I will just get buyers remorse.
You are the poster boy/girl of the deadbeat american.
I added another chapter to my ongoing, CR inspired, opus of doom.
A sample:
Once upon a time the DC metro area had been a company town, with the company being the US government. They were still big, but real estate in 2005 had become just as big.
There were also the parasites that hung off the body of the government. They had gorged themselves on the blood of the taxpayer since the Reagan administration. Building their towers around the perimeter of the interstate the girded the capital city. Like castles of feudal lords, they housed tens of thousands of foot soldiers, all dedicated to reaping the harvest from the government money trees. It was a good time, that was until Fall came about 6 months ago.
The government no longer had the money to support the programs that fed the money trees. We were still at war, and probably would be forever. At least that was the way it looked to me. Even though the current administration had originally tried to pull out of the Middle East, the Middle East turned out to be a tar pit that just kept sucking us in.
There was another problem, the world financial system turned to be insolvent. That created a whole bunch of expensive problems. In between the death of the real estate, the financial system, and military contractor scam, there just wasnt enough juice left to power the local system.
...saying we are truly going to rise or fall together.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy."
Our economies are so intertwined that it would not be in America's interest to stop buying our exports. But if push comes to shove we can raise cash by selling the mountain of treasuries we have.
I usually don't like to dis other posters, by really, how ignorant of you. uniquely anonymous | 02.22.09 - 1:53 pm | #
I don't see any signs of ignorance,....haven't had any insurance claims but the other two are slam dunks with practically any pets (as you note). We depend on the good sense of our renters, and have been sorely disappointed a few times.
You are the poster boy/girl of the deadbeat american. \t americansrdeadbeats | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:19 pm | # those arms, option arms, interest only, 105% financing deals offered up by dullards to the duller must be no problem by you.
"Otis, will you please loan me 300k? I promise to pay it back if my gamble works out...if not, I will get buyers remorse and screw you...nothing immoral you know, I will just get buyers remorse."
why not? congress seems to be making this way of thinking an institution.
if it was actual people holding the 300K mortgage things would have worked out differently. as it was the 300K was diced sliced repackaged and revalued with magic spooky dust through securitization.
not my fault that the suicide bankers fucked themselves writing and hiding bad loans from greed.
these people took advantage of the financially unsophisticated and ran amok in an unregulated orgy of excess.
fuck them hard.
Dump the crap mansion on the sucker bankers who couldn't do their own math on properly valuing mortgagees and properties.
i mean, seriously, these assholes are paying themselves billions in bonuses with bailout money.
on big dogs: some friends were denied rentals over a golden retriever repeatedly. It was a canine companion. One of the would be tenants had advanced amcular degeneration. Some times bad policy can bite a LL in the butt. Too bad this couple were too polite to sue.
Can someone explain to me why the Fed still hasnt really got the TALF up and running? Are they waiting for something to happen before they can buy up this crap?
And the other thing I dont get... the goal is to take the toxic turds off the banks' books, which will SUPPOSEDLY allow them to lend more to consumers, yet this logic has failed utterly in terms of loans to businesses. So I dont see why they are still using the same tortured rationale - am I missing something?
And if in the unlikely event more money is lent...how will that happen without just incurring more horrific losses on the loans? I mean, if they do lend based on good standards, they wont lend the money, because realistic credit scores are bad and rapidly worsening in this economic environment.
Are we trying to grow the original problem or something? This just makes no sense unless you somehow think that lending will explode to the point that it will instantly push up the real economy and somehow turn around the job loss trend and then magically bring unemployment down in a snap so that income growth reappears. None of this follows, and I can scarcely believe that Bernanke thinks this will work.
And meawhile, what's with all the other shadow banking assets that just sit there putrifying into a stinkier pile by the day. I dont think the TARP is big enough to cover that dungpile up.
Comrade not Ben Stein
What brought BS down was that they had a huge clearing and prime brokerage operation that generated a lot of cash which they used to finance their balance sheet which contained many long maturity assets which were down in value....the problem was that the clearing and prime brokerage customers could pull their business at a moment's notice - which they did in spades - but the assets were tough to sell (particularly given the amount they needed to sell). Were they bankrupt? No, JPM paid $10/sh for them...were they insolvent? Yes...was their business model any different than the old borrow short/lend long model that crushed the thrifts 25-30 years ago? nope...btw, its the same biz model used by any company with lots of short term financing in place.... FHLMC, FNMA, GE, insurance industry, etc....
Condo conversions usually take time. Most of 'em involve a cosmetic makeover, new appliances and maybe some granite. Several months to nearly a year depending on how thorough and how much of it is in the common areas. (The individual units can be done as tenants leave, but extensive common area might require all the tenants gone before worke commences) So those condo conversions temporarily removed housing from the supply and masked the oversupply of housing that was becomming available due to new construction.
Offering the units for rent OTOH takes NO time. The only thing that takes time is for the wish rents to come down to what the market will actually support.
donailin, I've lived in the Boston area for a while. I don't see rents falling, especially in Allston. 1800 on an updated 3 bed is a deal though, but I do find it bizarre they are looking this early and landlords are letting this early. I bet he could negotiate with them on the terms and a payment schedule. How bout a loan from pop?
Tell him to look in the Central Square area too, which is a really great neighborhood (tons of live music) in Cambridge. Plus its on the redline and he can take a quick bus down mass ave to Berkeley. Nobody should have to live on the green line.
Americans cannot complain of ripoffs. Your own publishing business got started by pirating the works of Charles Dickens. The primary reason he toured America was to get the American publishers to pay royalties. He toured in vain.
OT, but this seemed like such a wonderful example of bank double-dipping-at the same time banks are being bailout out by taxpayers, they're nickle & diming people receiving unemployment benefits--(charging people to check their balance!). Both the VA & SSA manage to do electronic deposit of benefit checks without having to privatize the process. And both SSA & the VA have been almost chronically underfunded & understaffed since Reagan.
in univ town like where I live, the signs for Fall rentals normally start in March. This year they started in Feb. Many a LL here is nervous as we still units that were vacated suddenly in Oct and Nov and contributing the the upswing in vacancy rates.
\t \t The entire point of compiling an average in the first place is to facilitate historical comparisons. Absent being placed in historical context an index is completely meaningless. Indeed, the dow is constantly reported in the corporate media in relation to some value in the past. Obviously, in order for historical comparisons to make sense the components would have to remain the same. You guessed it. They haven't. If a company starts doing poorly it is removed.
Looking back through my college notes I found a list of the 30 components from around 1992. Eleven of the thirty had changed (wait, make that 12, AIG recently switched for Kraft Foods).
Here is the list with an X by those that have been replaced with better performing companies. 1X- \tAllied Signal
\tAlcoa \tAmerican Express \tAT&T 2X- \tBethlehem Steel \tBoeing \tCaterpillar 3X- \tChevron \tCoca-Cola \tDuPont 4X- \tEastman Kodak \tExxon \tGeneral Electric \t Motors 5X- \tGoodyear \tIBM 6X- \tInternational Paper \tJP Morgan \tMcDonald's \tMerck \t3M \tPhilip Morris (now called Altria) \tProctor and Gamble 7X- \tSears Roebuck 8X- \tTexaco 9X- \tUnion Carbide \tUnited Technologies \tWalt Disney 10X- \tWestinghouse 11X- \tWoolworth
â¦and who were the replacements?
Citigroup, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, Honeywell, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Pfizer, Verizon, Wal-Mart, American International Group (replaced by Kraft foods on Sept. 18).
And declining rents puts more pressure on house prices (the rent vs. buy decision), and this should also start to impact CPI since Owners' equivalent rent (OER) makes up about 25% of CPI. - CR
This is hugely important. Since house prices haven't been counted in the CPI for a long time we had hidden inflation for years. Now we will have very visible deflation.
got any links that have info on the land you're talking about? sneering nihilist | 02.22.09 - 1:35 pm | #
There always is lots and lots of available land in Nye but now there will soon be even more as a number of land owners have been reassessed UPWARDS to their horror. Otherwise Nye is crashing...
Presents a good argument against privatizing gov't functions, imho.
IMO a good government would punish private institutions for predation, but the basic "public vs. private" argument should be structural - i.e. what needs to be done at a state level (e.g. highways) vs. what can be more efficiently done by private industry.
The idea that government should be doing something because private industry is doing it in an abusive fashion, however, imputes qualities to governments that history doesn't seem to validate - the worst abuses against people in history have been carried out by governments. There's simply no reason to think that because government does something it will result in collective good.
If you assume that government exists on a higher intellectual and moral plane than the rest of us, then yes this conclusion makes sense.
Real world evidence seems to suggest this is not the case.
correct me if i'm wrong but i beleive the dow components are selected by the editors of the wall street journal? Otis crap pants Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:47 pm | #
... who also conjure up the magical divisor, which is tantamount to changing the denominator in the equation for the average.
Citigroup, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, Honeywell, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Pfizer, Verizon, Wal-Mart, American International Group (replaced by Kraft foods on Sept. 18). "
So what you are saying is that using the DOW Transporation and DOW railway components as a proxy for the US economy is invalid because the DOW 30 contains finacial companies?
Again there is a misunderstanding on this board of what the DOW Theory says and what it tracks.
In the philly burbs, saw an apartment advertising 1st month of rent is free..... Looks to be about a grand a month for rent too.... from the area. Plus in my complex on my street there are a few apartments that have been empty since turkey day.....
Your comments show that you know dick about Dow Theory. \t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:51 pm | # keep your theory, smarty, use it well. clearly you have a problem understanding that historical comparisons are meaningless when you are comparing two different things. i couldn't make it more clear.
do i need to get out some apples and oranges for you?
Again there is a misunderstanding on this board of what the DOW Theory says and what it tracks. \t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:56 pm | # i'm all ears.
" To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.
Both Barron's Magazine and the Wall Street Journal still publish the daily performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Index in chart form. The index contains major railroads, shipping companies, and air freight carriers in the US."
"keep your theory, smarty, use it well. clearly you have a problem understanding that historical comparisons are meaningless when you are comparing two different things. i couldn't make it more clear.
do i need to get out some apples and oranges for you?
So, using an index that tracks transportation as a proxy for industrial production is comparing apples and oranges because the underlying companies change from transport company A to transport company B isn't valid?
I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest
>
Timmay's little stunt during nomination is coming back to bite?
Wikipeda on what DOW theory tracks Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 2:58 pm | #
ok first, nice source. second, sounds good in theory. in practice you are still trying to predict the garbage numbers if the industrials which is a deliverance dick dance if i ever seen one.
I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports. \t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 3:02 pm | # clearly you know more about your pet theory than me, and it does make sense in thory. i'm questioning the validity of and the honesty behind Dow generated indexes.
"I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports.
Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 3:02 pm | #
clearly you know more about your pet theory than me, and it does make sense in thory. i'm questioning the validity of and the honesty behind Dow generated indexes.
"
I don't even use the DOW theory. But it does bother me when people castigate a rather (to me) valid theory without displaying a knowledge of what it really means or is based on.
Do you prefer to use the fake S&P earnings estimates or the fake DOW earnings estimates? You seem to believe that S&P numbers are more valid.
From Reptillian's NYTimes article: "Current management would be fired an appropriate end for executives whose failures have brought their companies and the country to this dark and dangerous point."
... an appropriate end ??? Someone does not know how to spell "livid".
If it were clearly in China's interest to keep investing in US bonds Clinton would not have to urge them to do so. You urge people to do something they have good reasons NOT to do.
In fact I wonder if it was wise for her to say anything. She just draws attention to the problem and make the US look "strapped" which, of course, it is.
so much chatter, no talk about the forex implications of the UBS drama... bgates | 02.22.09 - 3:13 pm | #
i am eagerly awaiting 3pm PST to see if there is any follow through on fridays big moves.
i think the UBS drama is just our con artists trying to engineer swissies down since historically they have been a safe have currency.
not to downplay how messed up swiss bank balance sheets are. i just see what is going on with UBS and US tax collectors as hitting them when they are down
Rents in west LA (here meaning west of western) are still stable, maybe down a little. However, there are lots of vacancies, and way more houses for rent (at silly prices) then in previous years.
RE asking prices are still stupid, the only stuff selling are the few properties that underprice the majority of listings. Still a few buyers who think this is a great time to buy.
Lots of denial here still. Waiting impatiently. . .
"Over the last several weeks, you have seen something that was radioactive even six months ago, the idea of nationalizing major banks in this country, moving towards something of a consensus," Stephanopoulos said.
There wasn't a panelist who disputed the idea -- indeed, naysayers were mocked. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman scoffed at the notion that the White House was one of the few remaining holdouts, picking apart the Obama administration's comment as a sophisticated sidestep.
"That Gibbs statement was masterful," Krugman said of the remark by Obama's press secretary that a "privately-held banking system" regulated by the government was optimal. Some interpreted it as White House opposition to nationalization, but Krugman argued otherwise. "It sounded like a reassurance [but he] was actually saying what everybody believes. Nobody wants the government running the banking system for any length of time."
Stocks are sold on hope....hope is scarce these days.
If a stock was priced on it's actual dividend then prices would be much lower than now.
No one buy stocks without the prospect of selling for more later.
When that prospect goes...all that's left is dividend and risk.
With GM at a 74 year low, "stocks always goes up" is dying a slow death.
When people factor in the risk of stocks going to zero, then dividends will have to pay more than alternative investments, not less.
For the last few decades CD's payed much higher returns than dividends since you were sacrificing the opportunity costs of growth.
Now dividends will have to pay significantly more than safe CD's to make up for the risk of stocks going to zero.
Now may be the time to buy long term, but this long term will prove longer than we have left to live. We are two generations away from irrational hope again.
I was wondering why rents are falling..I mean with people evicted from their homes they have to live somewhere right?
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
Here is my idea, the Fed buys ShamWows from all the kiosk vendors at the mall to get the velocity of money back up. Then when they get some traction the ShamWow can absorb all that liquidity injected into the system and prevent inflation.
This plan will also help Germany's economy too. I don't see how it could fail.
I don't even use the DOW theory. But it does bother me when people castigate a rather (to me) valid theory without displaying a knowledge of what it really means or is based on.
Do you prefer to use the fake S&P earnings estimates or the fake DOW earnings estimates? You seem to believe that S&P numbers are more valid.
I don't see any indication of that. Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 3:15 pm | #
i don't see how silly earnings estimates are relevant to our discussion about indiCes.
but seriously - just show up at an abandoned place somewhere like the IE or FL... with a moving truck. take the sign off the door and make yourself comfy!
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements. . . . . Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
Rents are in free fall in Vegas. I recently moved into a nice 3/2 condo for $900 a month. Those rentals that are overpriced just sit and sit. Too many rentals and not enough qualified renters.
Graingod mentioned that rents are stable in Mpls... that seems far too generous. Mid to high-end rent in suburban complexes are off around 10% (1 free month's rent). Anything on the high-end ($1,500+ per month) is experiencing the Wile-E-Coyote effect of ballooning supply. I think a lot of screwed flippers are putting units on craigslist, but they know that there is really no chance they will get anything that comes close to their expenses. Granted, there are a few suckers out there who will pay what is asked.
I can't comment as much on the low end. I know complexes are hurting, and the supply is huge, but I am not sure where prices have gone.
"but seriously - just show up at an abandoned place somewhere like the IE or FL... with a moving truck. take the sign off the door and make yourself comfy!"
But what about "forcible entry" and "unlawful detainer" laws?
Average Joe: Yes. And one factor that has yet to enter the Wall Street consciousness is that in the end, it is DIVIDENDS, not EARNINGS that matter. When a company is expanding, it is not unreasonable to assume that earnings will be invested in a way that will increase production. That's why in normal times, earnings is considered a good metric of a companies performance. And retained earnings avoid the double taxation of dividends. But with much of the economy suffering from overcapacity, there's little reason to believe that retained earnings, future OR past are going to result in higher future returns.
....and not just apartment rentals..my car lease is expiring and I was offered a 10% discount to keep it WITH the option of terminating the lease at any time
I have noticed rents weakening around here (Ventura County/North LA County area) over the last year or so.
Last year they were already offered a free months rent. I choose to amortize it over the entire lease. Anyhow, I just got my lease renewal and they are giving me the same rate + a $200 lease signing bonus. They are advertising $50/month less than my rate though.
Over the last year it seems rents have gone down around 5~10%. At least in the market segment I'm looking at.
Yes, some people are doubling up. But you left out all the people falling thru the cracks and living in Hoovervilles. Homelessness was the missing white woman story of the 80's. You couldn't get away from it on the teevee. The level of homelessness we have now would have seemed unthinkable in the 70's. Now it's so pervasive it's become invisible and completely unremarkable.
I have noticed new clusters of older RVs. People are living in them. One is near my gym, the other is close to the beach in unincorporated LA county.
I expect to see a lot more of this. RVs can be gotten for cheap. Easy to move somewhere new. Moderate storage for 1-2 people. With a friend or relative who has a regular house to visit once in a while, probably workable.
As someone who used to appraise real estate in DC in the midst of the last crash, I'll never get tired of people who tell us to let them know when DC rents will go down. Yeah, yeah, albany NY is irrelevant and we only have to worry when DC starts to suffer.
let me guess, you didn't live in DC in 1992.
Go talk to DC1000 about your theories of DC being recession proof.
But I do appreciate your arrogance and ignorance and will make money off of it along with a bunch of other idiots like you. Keep believing you are different. I'll keep taking your money.
thanks for your reasonable arguments calling into question my suggestion that the dow theory (the industrial average down confirmed by the transportation index down confirms a sell signal
you make good points
i tendered the previous article because i thought it interesting and i must admit i lean that way
but the barrons article certainly makes me questio
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
In the WaPo real estate section I found 2 complexes in Vienna, VA offering 3 and 4 months free rent. Their 2 bedroom apartments start at $1200/month - low end for the area.
With all of the new and remodeled buildings available, the older unremodeled properties are offering the largest incentives.
IMO, anyone who gets unemployment benefits should be required to work 2 days per week for the govt while they are getting the benefits.
If a parent of small children looses a job, the parent can at least cut down on childcare expenses (which are our biggest budget item), by having the children at home. How should the parent be able to work for the government without getting extra money for childcare?
mike2 writes:
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
In the WaPo real estate section I found 2 complexes in Vienna, VA offering 3 and 4 months free rent. Their 2 bedroom apartments start at $1200/month - low end for the area.
With all of the new and remodeled buildings available, the older unremodeled properties are offering the largest incentives.
agreed......i drove past the large new condo-to-apt development at Rt 28/355 in rockville today....looks like a nice place but that's another hundred or so units on the market
Seattle rents are starting to slip, especially on all those townhouses built in the past several years. It's all anecdotal, but I'm seeing places stay empty for two or three months and others dropping their rents siginificantly.
Excellent - America is becoming a nation of rootless cosmopolitan renters just like the hyperurban Jewish money-masters want...landless renters are easier to control and COMPLETELY DEPENDENT on The System for ALL of their most basic needs...thus they are not much more than slaves, or cattle if you want to look at it nicely.
The rents, the rents, they're falling...
2nd.
$30 a month? bfd
It's like reading my own comments from early 2006 except without the derision.
Santelli responds to WhiteHouse Gibbs (fair warning it's on kudlow's show)
Video - CNBC.com
Short paper from the Bank of International Settlements.
http://www.bis.org/review/r090220b.pdf
"Tax cuts and transfers should be targeted to households with a large marginal propensity to consumption. One possible measure in this context would be to increase the size of unemployment benefits and the corresponding period of entitlement. This would also increase the degree of automatic stabilization."
ot/ Hertz writes:
\tsantelli mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore.
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/ 4805688615140324454/
so much screaming is the american way.
fight fight fight son say the old men with smiles on their faces
all this screaming
no one can hear what anyone says
rule by tantrum
is retarded
monkeys cannot tell the difference
between a smile and a snarl...
The rents are still waaay too high in Seattle, though its suburbs are coming down a bit in price.
Of course, it also means that the price-to-rent ratio is chasing a declining denominator. So strap in, the turbulence is going to continue.
The really telling part of that advertisement is the phrase "WE ACCEPT LARGE DOGS".
That means the owner is willing to risk insurance claims, property damage, and flea infestations in order to get the units rented.
Hawley Smoot writes:
"Tax cuts and transfers should be targeted to households with a large marginal propensity to consumption. One possible measure in this context would be to increase the size of unemployment benefits and the corresponding period of entitlement.
IMO, anyone who gets unemployment benefits should be required to work 2 days per week for the govt while they are getting the benefits.
Dean Baker on CSpan 2 at 1:57 to discuss his book "Plunder and blunder: The rise and fall of the bubble economy"
That dog allowance is like a $100 discount every month.
Old world is catching the fire:
Eastern Europe About To Go Bust, Taking Western Europe With It
ouch, the question is, will we see an asset flight towards the safety, = good old US of A or not?
shut up
no you shut up
you shut up
you're stupid
you're stupid
dumb ass
ass hat
ass clown
fuck ape
your momma wears army boots
dip shit
shit head
you stupid
you stupid
scream
scream
unintelligible
screamm,,
shreak
shrill shreak
AAAAAAAHHHH!
AMERICA
Will people get rent vouchers when the crash is complete?
good news: my rent was reduced 4.5%
bad news: my car got vandalized last night. a tagger was nice enough to spray paint my car.
good news: 99% of the spray paint came off after a trip to a $5 automated carwash
p.s.:
"En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data)."
ouch
Before anyone makes a smart 'investment' in rental property, better look at all the craigslist rental ads first.
We could offer taggers an incentive: use water soluble paint and get paid for your work.
how can anyone think through all that television screaming?
does anyone think of what it does to you to consume all that screaming?
put a mirror above your TV and aim it at your Lounger.
consuming screaming is not helping anything.
put a mirror above your TV and aim it at your Lounger.
BFD. Albany -- the armpit of the Northeast. Wake me when rents meaningfully decline in the DC metro area.
We could offer taggers an incentive: use water soluble paint and get paid for your work.
reptillian | 02.22.09 - 1:06 pm | #
i like it. i think part of the reason most of it came off was all of the what i call "uv protection" (dirt) that i allowed to accumulate on my car. paint don't stick to dirt so good.
Bubbles:
People who collect unemployment --- in 2009 and beyond --- are struggling to avoid hunger and homelessness. They have already worked hard, but the system threw them under a bus anyway.
Now they are helping raise the kids, they are catching up on 10 years of sleep deprivation, they are fixing all those things around the house that they neglected, and they are doing work under the table and off the books for extra income.
Worrying about the laziness of your neighbors is a dead-end.
The knife catchers are snapping up property based upon optimistic rent projects vs artificially low "alternative investments". In other words, money that would only get 3% in a CD is willing to go after say an 8% return on real estate. That 8% is based only on a projection of course: That projection includes recent historical rent prices in the area with a normal vacancy rate projection. How would you price it vs falling rents and increasing vacancy rates (i.e. job loss in recessions).
Anyone buying residential real estate today as an investment should recheck their assumptions in their formula.
Also consider the opportunity costs on the deal future all-cash purchasers may get if mortgage rates ever are allowed to rise. Consider the purchasing power of cash when you're competing against buyers who have to pay, say 8% for mortgage money.
Cash is still king as the deflationary spiral is still in progress. Time is on your side.
where's my compensation, watching others fall?
i rented a "million dollar" apartment for 1500 dollars.
Ministry The Fall lyrics Take this invitation
Bishops Queen to Pawn
All of us were taken
All that was is gone
Of this information
Shames us one and all
Where's my compensation?
Watching others fall
Welcome to the fall
Everything is useless
Nothing works at all
Nothing ever matters
Welcome to the fall
Welcome to the fall
Welcome to the fall
Welcome to the fall
The national rental vacancy rate now stands at 10.1 percent.
Las Vegas edged Detroit for the title of America's most abandoned city. Atlanta came in third, followed by Greensboro, N.C., and Dayton, Ohio. Our rankings, a combination of rental and homeowner vacancy rates for the 75 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the country, are based on fourth-quarter data released Feb. 3 by the Census Bureau. Each was ranked on rental vacancies and housing vacancies; the final ranking is an average of the two.
Empty neighborhoods are becoming an increasingly daunting problem across the country.
America's Top 15 Emptiest Cities - ABC News
Well what do you know... stories about doubling up, falling rents, etc.
/shock
But all the RE inveestards told me over and over that this couldn't happen and if it did, it wouldn't happen here because of demand from the Bay area.
Hawley Smoot--not worrying about laziness, just think it would be a good way to get stuff done in the govt that needs to be done.
Plus, those who aren't doing all of the things you said, and are just sitting around playing video games (plenty), would be much better off.
"The knife catchers are snapping up property based upon optimistic rent projects vs artificially low "alternative investments". In other words, money that would only get 3% in a CD is willing to go after say an 8% return on real estate. That 8% is based only on a projection of course: That projection includes recent historical rent prices in the area with a normal vacancy rate projection. How would you price it vs falling rents and increasing vacancy rates (i.e. job loss in recessions)."
My co-worker owns a house in Vallejo, CA. Bought it for 450k, hit a high of roughly 820k and is now worth 380k.
Knife catchers bought homes in his neighborhood last year and they've already lost 100k and foreclosed again.
Sciurus writes:
Santelli responds to WhiteHouse Gibbs (fair warning it's on kudlow's show)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232? ...ideo=1041856849
Rick is right in his rebuttal too.
Here's more information on that plan too:
YouTube - White House Press Secretary Defiles The Office of The President
I decided to move within my complex from an apartment on the street with no fenced patio to one within the complex with a fenced patio. Was expecting the rent to go from the $1020 I pay now to about $1100-1150. The management company is running a deal that cuts $300 of the monthly rent if you sign a 12 month lease. On one hand I'm happy that the extra cash will help me achieve my goal of becoming debt free by the end of the year. On the other hand I'm a bit nervous about the crowd that might roll on in. Maybe $850 is the new $1150?
Lot's of empty units and every complex on the street has big, colorful Move IN Special signs.
I live just east of downtown Austin. My lease is up at the end of April and my rent will drop from $1782 to $1721 (unprompted). The really amazing thing is that they are willing to drop the rent to 1721 even if I go month-to-month. In the lease I signed 9 months ago the month-to-month rent or any extra months was $2300ish.
Even in Austin, which hasn't had the coastal run-ups in property prices or massive lay-offs rents are dropping.
home debtorship is looking better and better every day. the debtor gets to pay all the neat taxes and hoa fees. they get stuck with all the repair costs. they also have the outrageously fun of trying to sell the house when they want to move. man! now is a great time to buy a home!
The property manager/owner (a large nationwide private firm) of my building is trying a gambol on me (and I assume the other 200 leasees in the building):
My 1 yr lease expires on 3/31/09 and I haven't received the renewal offer letter yet. I asked about this in January, and they said 'all in good time'. I don't think they are trying a forceout because I pay on time, am quiet, and fin. secure.
My guess is that they will get up to 3/1 and present me with about a 6% increase and think I'll fold because I'd have to move in one month. Foolish them. They have a sign in front (next to the one that say's 'luxury apartments') that says 'special move-in accomodations'. LOL.
I wonder if the resident manager has any negotiating leeway. I've been here five years and my impression is that top mgmt. has tight strings from elsewhere.
Does anyone know how they train the local managers to lie?
everything i own is collapsible. except for four boxes of nostalgia, everything i own i need. it all fits in my truck and cargo trailer. my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing.
my life weighs 3000 pounds.
how much does your life weigh?
how large is your anchor?
how much of you anchor is plastic?
welcome to the fall
where's my compensation, watching others fall?
"Anyone buying residential real estate today as an investment should recheck their assumptions in their formula."
....yeah, like buy a dirt-cheap piece of land that has a well, electric, good southern exposure, and a place to park the RV that's in your driveway now. (1.25+ acres here are becoming more popular for that reason - "survival plots" - $25K m/o/l)
Chi suburbs and I just had 2 renters renew same rate for 12 mnths
Black Star Ranch | 02.22.09 - 1:26 pm
where is "here" located?
Comrade de Chaos - good link, Mauldin had this up on marketoracle during the week.
I hope he's not right. I've got a bet with a co-worker that southern Europe will blow before Easterern Europe does.
I forget who made the best case for it, maybe Buiter in the FT, but it is worth noting the apparently competitive WASS going on - Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain as reflected in their sov CDS blowout & neg watch from ratings, and Eastern Europe's cross-border banking sector exposure being fubar.
Ah well, only a couple of hours before the Asia cycle kicks in. We should have a mollifying announcement from DC by about 5pm EST.
C
The really amazing thing is that they are willing to drop the rent to 1721 even if I go month-to-month. In the lease I signed 9 months ago the month-to-month rent or any extra months was $2300ish.
Kineslaw | 02.22.09 - 1:21 pm | #
renting is nirvana
i won't even view a place if they won't talk short term lease.
you can have a permanent vacation if you pare your possessions.
no property taxes, no interest, no zoning assholes harassing you, no repairs, no 6% commission, no debtor's prison.
and never have to spend money at home depot ever again.
There are alot of people who are getting used to paying no rent to live in a big house. Many many many future renters are living free in their "own" home as they pay off debts and wait for the sheriff to kick them out. I have 5 co-workers and a few friends that have simply stopped paying their mortgage, some for as long a 7 months already, with no action from the lender. They are paying off debt, getting used to living in something they don't "own" and are realizing that their residence is a commodity. How quickly will they want to own again? How much rent are they going to be willing to part with each month (recall going for a year or more of paying $0 to paying say $1000 a month is a relatively high jump-attitudes about how much housing is "worth" are changing rapidly).
Perhaps "owning" a home will be looked at in the future as being a "sucker". Remember when Hummer drivers felt rich and cool?
Nye Co., NV - the desert with underground water
I wonder if the resident manager has any negotiating leeway. I've been here five years and my imp
JimPortlandOR | 02.22.09 - 1:22 pm | #
Rule #1
only rent from small independent landlords.
average Joe: Are you serious, or just seriously confused
It's about time that rents are falling. They increased too fast and were much too high.
We are probably approaching a time when a generation or two will be very wary of buying stocks and real estate.
Empty neighborhoods are becoming an increasingly daunting problem across the country.
ABC News - ABC News page=1
km4 | 02.22.09 - 1:16 pm | #
Maybe all the unemployed can be herded to these places to create poverty reservations.
Nye Co., NV - the desert with underground water
Black Star Ranch | 02.22.09 - 1:31 pm
i've started doing some looking into land near pioche but have not found anything that i want yet.
got any links that have info on the land you're talking about?
There are several inauspious months in which to invest in the stock market. They are August, October,July, May, December.......
Mark Twai
Its location,location ,location, as lawyer liz can tell you those association fees can be messy indeed.
Anonymous writes:
Empty neighborhoods are becoming an increasingly daunting problem across the country.
ABC News - ABC News page=1
km4 | 02.22.09 - 1:16 pm | #
Maybe all the unemployed can be herded to these places to create poverty reservations.
Yes, and put Average Joe's deadbeat friends with them.
my sister hasn't paid on her mtg for 14 mos now, no eviction yet..NOD-yes but nothing since then.
should have paid off all debt, saving 36000 over those 14 months..I can only hope
countrywide loan! never missed before reset, won't work with her bcse of 200K home depreciation
inland empire
Average joe is right
good news: 99% of the spray paint came off after a trip to a $5 automated carwash
sneering nihilist | 02.22.09 - 1:04 pm
Bad news: Erasing a tag carries a death sentence in some areas
inauspicious
Once an ignorant prick asshole, always an ignorant prick asshole.
Bush goes to hardware store that offered him a job
DALLAS Former President George W. Bush has visited a Dallas hardware store that earlier this month made him a lighthearted offer to work as a greeter.
Andrea Bond, a manager at Elliott's Hardware, says Bush walked into the store Saturday and quipped: "I'm looking for a job."
Otis O.T. Hertz writes:
everything i own is collapsible. except for four boxes of nostalgia, everything i own i need. it all fits in my truck and cargo trailer. my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing.
I see a manifesto in your future.
reptillian writes:
"We are probably approaching a time when a generation or two will be very wary of buying stocks and real estate."
Maybe, but we're not there yet. All the twenty-something that I know are looking for bargains on stocks and real estate. Not to say they are not wary, but they are interested. I'm thinking we end up with a generation of much smarter investors. It was mostly the boomers and gen-X that got burned, since the Y and Z generations did not have nearly as much at risk.
There I go being optimistic again...sorry.
I see a manifesto in your future.
Anonymous | 02.22.09 - 1:39 pm
Or an FBI Investigatio
anon writes:
my sister hasn't paid on her mtg for 14 mos now, no eviction yet..NOD-yes but nothing since then.
should have paid off all debt, saving 36000 over those 14 months..I can only hope
countrywide loan! never missed before reset, won't work with her bcse of 200K home depreciation
inland empire
Average joe is right
No, he is not and neither is your sister. There have been many people over the years who have been upside down on their mortgages and they have paid--people that I know.
Americans these days are entitled whiners.
declining rents...declining employment, declining everything must put downward pressure on stocks at least until we approach a bottom
which we clearly have not
from bloomberg
"Dow Theory Says Worst Isnt Over for U.S. Stocks as YRC Falls
Email | Print | A A A
By Eric Martin and Cristina Alesci
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- A 125-year-old method for forecasting the market is telling investors the worst isnt over for stocks.
Dow Theory, which holds that simultaneous moves in industrial and transportation shares foreshadow economic activity, indicates the Dow Jones Industrial Averages drop to a six-year low yesterday may presage more losses.
The Dow industrials slumped to 7,365.67 on concern the deepening recession will force the U.S. government to bail out banks. Adherents of Dow Theory say the 30-stock gauge will fall farther because the Dow Jones Transportation Average has slipped to the worst level since September 2003.
When you have that confirmation in both legs, thats clearly negative, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical analyst at Schaeffers Investment Research in Cincinnati. Theres some validity to Dow Theory. "
‘Dow Theory’ Says Worst Isn’t Over for U.S. Stocks as YRC Falls - Bloomberg.com
"Timothy Leary of Geithner writes:
What's it like for you Brits to have cameras following your nearly every move, in public?
Did you get used to it?
Timothy Leary of Geithner | 02.22.09 - 12:33 pm |"
I can't wait for the rioters to take out all those video surveillance cameras. You know, it's really not that difficult. When I was a lad, we used to take out some pretty feisty squirrels on a wire with some rocks with great accuracy.
These wrist sling shots should do the job nicely as well.
Tempest Folding Wrist Slingshot
Item# 825940
$7.99
Tempest Folding Wrist Slingshot
reptillian writes:
"We are probably approaching a time when a generation or two will be very wary of buying stocks and real estate."
or maybe this generation you refer to won't equate yoking oneself to a lifetime of debt with ownership.
anon is a schizophrenic
Andrea Bond, a manager at Elliott's Hardware, says Bush walked into the store Saturday and quipped: "I'm looking for a job."
Anonymous | 02.22.09 - 1:39 pm | #
He reportedly bought a flashlight and batteries (no joke) to locate his asshole. Elliott's is the most seriously overpriced mom & pop hardware store in Dallas but carries things you will not find at Home Depot and Lowes.
graingod
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
If rates ever do skyrocket then anyone with lots of cash and no home to sell will be in a position to buy a home for next to nothing. Just think what would happen to home prices if rates ever go back to say 10%! Those who saved up $200,000 grand to put down on the house of their dreams will now be able to get the whole house!
Cash is king in a deflation. Those with the flexibility to be in cash and able to buy without having sell their old home, and without having to borrow to do so will look like a genius.
Those who will be "confused" will be those who wonder why doing the "right" thing didn't work out.
Average Joe writes:
graingod
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
And you point is????
Never mind, I know what it is. It is ok to do wrong if you make money in the end.
We are so effed.
...Those who will be "confused" will be those who wonder why doing the "right" thing didn't work out.
Average Joe
======
Average Joe == Way above average perspective
Nice comment.
And you point is????
anon
If you have to ask, you're too ignorant to understand his point.
I live in Oakland California, where there are many new units on the market or coming to market. Many can't be sold, and so are being rented out.
My own landlord pre-emptively lowered the rent on the place I've been living in for the last 5 years, by five percent, in exchange for a year lease. They are doing this to keep people from moving into one of these all new units down the block, which are eroding prices in middle to lower end of the market. What this means for me is that the nominal rent on my place has gone up 1% over the last 5 years.
"got any links that have info on the land you're talking about?"
Nye Co. is the third largest county in the US. here's one for the largest town in Nye County......
Pahrump, Nevada
I am not making any point. I am describing the reality that I see.
Just because I predict it doesn't mean I like it or think it's good.
I am not making any moral arguments here people.
This crisis and our response to it is turning things on their head.
You can ignore it all you want. But sometimes how things "are" is different than how they "should" be.
Be prepared for a world where I am right.
Average Joe writes:
graingod
mark my words....in the near future those who overbought, defaulted, lived for free for years in their home, paid off all debt, saved up significant cash, rebuilt credit, and then bought or rented later will likely come out financially better off than those who did the "right" thing.
You've described a handful of individuals at most.
"He reportedly bought a flashlight and batteries (no joke) to locate his asshole. Elliott's is the most seriously overpriced mom & pop hardware store in Dallas ...
FFDIC | 02.22.09 - 1:43 pm | #
i gotta guess hes gonna need a map and a mirror too
âThere's some validity to Dow Theory." "
12 of the 30 dow components have been changed in the last 15 years. this, of course, makes historical comparisons COMPLETELY meaningless (before you even consider how the divisor is manipulated).
there is little validity to the dow indicating anything at all, except concealment.
i would be wary of using a faux index like the dow for anything. it is not giving you any usable historical information.
You've described a handful of individuals at most.
Anonymous
====
Have you no knowledge of the bell-curve?
7016 Briarmeadow Drive Dallas, Tx 75230-5329 - Dallas Real Estate, Fort Worth Real Estate, Texas Real Estate, Dallas Properties, Fort Worth Properties, Texas Properties, Dallas Homes, Fort Worth Homes, Texas Homes, Dallas Houses, Fort Worth Houses, Texas
This full duplex in N. Dallas is for sale at $229k nearby. Rents range from $1,200 to $1,800 in the immediate area. A well maintained full duplex w/1 small pool on Airline Rd. recently sold for $400k or about double the asking price of this one with deferred maint. And, Airline Rd. is a much busier street with Hillcrest highschool & stadium traffic.
anonymous....are you really Ben Stein?
i gotta guess hes gonna need a map and a mirror too
mock turtle | 02.22.09 - 1:48 pm | #
Elliot's has those in stock as well.
I am in agreement, cash is king presently , the rent market is very fragmented presently, bubble markets like L Vegas, many areas in Cal. and Fla rent is going down. However there are markets like Mdsn wi, Mpls, and certain subs of chicago that are holding rent rates.
"The really telling part of that advertisement is the phrase "WE ACCEPT LARGE DOGS".
That means the owner is willing to risk insurance claims, property damage, and flea infestations in order to get the units rented.
sm_landlord"
I usually don't like to dis other posters, by really, how ignorant of you. Let's start with the flea thing. That's equally likely with big dogs, small dogs, and cats. By insurance claims, I assume you mean dog bites. If you exclude 3 or 4 breeds (Pit, Rot, Husky, Malamute), you avoid the vast majority of severe bites. Interestingly, those under 25 lb dogs many apartment complexes allow are more likely than most large breeds to bite, Sausage dogs are the most aggressive dogs - Telegraph .
As most Labrador and Collie owners know, they are quite safe.
If it was my complex, I would allow big dogs under a few conditions. 1. Anybody with a dog has to clean up after them. 2. High risk breeds like pit bulls aren't allowed. 3. The leasing agent has to meet your dog. 4. If you feel concerned, have the renters get renters' insurance.
"12 of the 30 dow components have been changed in the last 15 years. this, of course, makes historical comparisons COMPLETELY meaningless (before you even consider how the divisor is manipulated).
there is little validity to the dow indicating anything at all, except concealment.
i would be wary of using a faux index like the dow for anything. it is not giving you any usable historical information."
The DOW theory concentrates on the Dow industrials and the Dow railway components as an indicator of coming economic changes. It doesn't pay attention really to the DOW index by itself.
The theory has some merit given that it tracks the true production economy.
Average Joe writes:
anonymous....are you really Ben Stein?
Average Joe | 02.22.09 - 1:50 pm | #
Ouch.
Average Joe writes:
I am not making any point. I am describing the reality that I see.
Just because I predict it doesn't mean I like it or think it's good.
I am not making any moral arguments here people.
This crisis and our response to it is turning things on their head.
You can ignore it all you want. But sometimes how things "are" is different than how they "should" be.
Be prepared for a world where I am right.
That world is the world that we are living in right now. People who will do whatever they have to do for money, immoral or not. How does someone with high morals ever win in a situation like that?
Average Joe, aren't your co-workers cops? So isn't what they are doing breaking the law?
"my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head. been living minimalist for four years, constantly shedding weight, optimizing."
My most valuable possession is my sense of humor. I have been living minimalist for the last 11 years, since the divorce which left me no choice. Maybe that is why I feel no difference in my standard of living, as of yet. I knock on wood here. I was all set to fiance a newer car this year, but now I'm just waiting this thing out. My rent is unchanged this year and no word from my LL (of 10 years) as to lowering or raising. I'm letting it be, we help one another and this house is paid for anyway. I'm concerned about my son in Boston, he attends Berklee college and is renting and looking to move to something better in September since the place he is in has a serious mice/maintenance problem. He and his future room mates found a 3 bedroom off Commonwealth in Allston which seemed like a great deal (1800 a month for a 3 bedroom which has all new upgrades, close to the T and 100 less than what he's paying now)but the realtor told them that they have to put up first now, and then last, sec. and fee which is equal to 3 months rent in 45 days. That was a deal breaker since that would take a good portion of his cash needed for this semester and summer living expenses. Does any one think he may be wise to wait until April or May? Will rents decrease in Boston? I guess that's my burning question. . .
Bubbles: Oops. I got all excited and had to rant. Okay, back to posting links.
"People who will do whatever they have to do for money, immoral or not."
....hence the large number of brothels in our county (not judging, just sayin')
Uni anon, Very good point , I am a dog lover but dont let dogs in my rentals.
and yet those that didn't overleverage themselves don't get that rent fee option. I used to be really pissed about that until I started helping people find new housing as they loose their jobs, families, homes, etc. You may be able to find a rental that will take you with a sub 600 score, NSFs, and a big dog but it will be in a place you never ever wanted to live.
The funny part is there are places sitting vacant, loosing cash month after month because they won't take a dog (a friend's mom has a seeing eye dog) and they won't reduce from their 'geez I really need to cover this mortgage payment I'm bleeding each month' price. If they'd just get off their high horses, they be loosing a lot less then the 3 to 4 months of rents a vacancy would cost them.
My next big hope is seeing all that freakingly overbuilt CRE because work/live space. Sell me one of those and I'll be a very happy little artist.
They've lowered rents in my building. Catch is, you have to move into a different unit if you want to take advantage of the reduction. Lots of shuffling around going on these past few weeks.
orma,
I don't really know. I know we do not arrest people for not paying their mortgage.
They are violating department policy. But so is cheating on your wife..so there you go.
Yes, even those who are supposed to set the example, are setting a bad one.
However, many are unable to pay. I doubt any law can force you to pay money you don't have. They will vacate when asked to I assume. Right now they are probably doing everyone a favor, since a cared for home is better than an empty. Frankly the banks aren't eager to kick anyone to the curb yet, cause then the house deteriorates and they have to pay fines to the city.
The whole situation is mind boggling.
signing off , time to walk my J Russells
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Man hit, killed by Mardi Gras parade float in Louisiana
(This reminds me of a FDIC story. The FDIC had a large criminal restitution on a guy who could not pay. He was hit by a Mardi Gras parade float, sued and won a large award. The FDIC was about to write off his criminal restitution as uncollectable but found out about the recovery and continued pressing for payment. I don't recall if it ever collected a dime. Many multi-millions in 1980s & 1990s criminal restitutions were written off in the Dallas FDIC office with DC's approval before the 2005 RIF in an attempt to justify downsizing staff. The US lost a huge sum that could have been collected if given more time and resources.
The whole situation is mind boggling.
Average Joe | 02.22.09 - 1:58 pm
it sure as hell is. if things are ever gonna "bounce back" the whole rule book is gonna need to be re-written.
The DOW theory concentrates on the Dow industrials and the Dow railway components as an indicator of coming economic changes. It doesn't pay attention really to the DOW index by itself.
Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 1:53 pm | #
garbage in, garbage out.
why not apply this theory you like to s&p equivalents like s&p transports? not like they don't exist.
dow numbers are for propaganda.
hell, sample size of 30 should be a big warning sign to you if you have had a statistics class.
nuthin personal but seriously reconsider what you said for your own good?
Bandos bring rents down.
Interview with Ace Greenberg.
FRONTLINE: inside the meltdown: interviews: alan "ace" greenberg | PBS
"There is no Wall Street. It's gone. There is no Wall Street. It's a street just like Broadway or Madison Avenue now. There are no firms on it. The model of the investment banking firm is gone forever. It will never come back, in my opinion. There are no investment banks."
dumping your particle board crap mansion is not an immoral choice, it is buyer's remorse. dump that lemon. don't look back.
don't be a debt slave!
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities - Bloomberg.com
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged China to continue buying U.S. Treasury bonds to help finance President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan, saying “we are truly going to rise or fall together.”
“Our economies are so intertwined,” Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. “It would not be in China’s interest” if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy.
This is of interest. Where I live, rents are going up, which seems to be a good sign, but the rentals are not moving and the supply of rentals is increasing; in addition home prices are stable, but sales are obviously very slow, thus there are people trying to rent to recoup cash flow, but the reality is, both home values and rents will have to fall more.
From the Ace Greenberg link ...
That third model is gone, because it's been proven without a question of a doubt in the last year that a rumor can put any of these firms at peril. You certainly saw it with us. You saw it with Lehman [Brothers]. Even the firm that I had the most admiration for, Goldman Sachs, found itself the victim of rumors. And Merrill Lynch did. And both of these firms had to convert over the weekend to banks, had to have infusions of capital because they couldn't withstand the self-fulfilling prophecies of the rumors.
This was Warren Buffet's argument as well ... but it seems flawed.
Rumours alone didn't bring down these firms. The fact was the rumours were true ... they were insolvent ... no?
Otis Pain Now Hertz writes:
dumping your particle board crap mansion is not an immoral choice, it is buyer's remorse. dump that lemon. don't look back.
Otis, will you please loan me 300k? I promise to pay it back if my gamble works out...if not, I will get buyers remorse and screw you...nothing immoral you know, I will just get buyers remorse.
You are the poster boy/girl of the deadbeat american.
I added another chapter to my ongoing, CR inspired, opus of doom.
A sample:
Once upon a time the DC metro area had been a company town, with the company being the US government. They were still big, but real estate in 2005 had become just as big.
There were also the parasites that hung off the body of the government. They had gorged themselves on the blood of the taxpayer since the Reagan administration. Building their towers around the perimeter of the interstate the girded the capital city. Like castles of feudal lords, they housed tens of thousands of foot soldiers, all dedicated to reaping the harvest from the government money trees. It was a good time, that was until Fall came about 6 months ago.
The government no longer had the money to support the programs that fed the money trees. We were still at war, and probably would be forever. At least that was the way it looked to me. Even though the current administration had originally tried to pull out of the Middle East, the Middle East turned out to be a tar pit that just kept sucking us in.
There was another problem, the world financial system turned to be insolvent. That created a whole bunch of expensive problems. In between the death of the real estate, the financial system, and military contractor scam, there just wasnt enough juice left to power the local system.
follow the home page link if your interested.
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities - Bloomberg.com
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities
...saying we are truly going to rise or fall together.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy.
Clinton Urges China to Keep Buying U.S. Treasury Securities
Ministry of Truth | 02.22.09 - 2:12 pm | #
china replied, we like converting our overvalued dollars into miners and raw materials companies better.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest if the U.S. were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy."
Our economies are so intertwined that it would not be in America's interest to stop buying our exports. But if push comes to shove we can raise cash by selling the mountain of treasuries we have.
I usually don't like to dis other posters, by really, how ignorant of you.
uniquely anonymous | 02.22.09 - 1:53 pm | #
I don't see any signs of ignorance,....haven't had any insurance claims but the other two are slam dunks with practically any pets (as you note). We depend on the good sense of our renters, and have been sorely disappointed a few times.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing ...
"that we are both completely fucked."
sneering nihilist writes:
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing ...
"that we are both completely fucked."
Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding ... We have a winner!
They are the best capitalists in China. Check out the possibilities of gold-clad tungsten:
Tungsten alloy for gold subtitution
Mock Turtle,
Here's a counter balance to your post on the DOW theory from Barrons:
Be Leery of Dow Theory - Barrons.com
You are the poster boy/girl of the deadbeat american.
\t americansrdeadbeats | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:19 pm | #
those arms, option arms, interest only, 105% financing deals offered up by dullards to the duller must be no problem by you.
"Otis, will you please loan me 300k? I promise to pay it back if my gamble works out...if not, I will get buyers remorse and screw you...nothing immoral you know, I will just get buyers remorse."
why not? congress seems to be making this way of thinking an institution.
if it was actual people holding the 300K mortgage things would have worked out differently. as it was the 300K was diced sliced repackaged and revalued with magic spooky dust through securitization.
not my fault that the suicide bankers fucked themselves writing and hiding bad loans from greed.
these people took advantage of the financially unsophisticated and ran amok in an unregulated orgy of excess.
fuck them hard.
Dump the crap mansion on the sucker bankers who couldn't do their own math on properly valuing mortgagees and properties.
i mean, seriously, these assholes are paying themselves billions in bonuses with bailout money.
on big dogs: some friends were denied rentals over a golden retriever repeatedly. It was a canine companion. One of the would be tenants had advanced amcular degeneration. Some times bad policy can bite a LL in the butt. Too bad this couple were too polite to sue.
Can someone explain to me why the Fed still hasnt really got the TALF up and running? Are they waiting for something to happen before they can buy up this crap?
And the other thing I dont get... the goal is to take the toxic turds off the banks' books, which will SUPPOSEDLY allow them to lend more to consumers, yet this logic has failed utterly in terms of loans to businesses. So I dont see why they are still using the same tortured rationale - am I missing something?
And if in the unlikely event more money is lent...how will that happen without just incurring more horrific losses on the loans? I mean, if they do lend based on good standards, they wont lend the money, because realistic credit scores are bad and rapidly worsening in this economic environment.
Are we trying to grow the original problem or something? This just makes no sense unless you somehow think that lending will explode to the point that it will instantly push up the real economy and somehow turn around the job loss trend and then magically bring unemployment down in a snap so that income growth reappears. None of this follows, and I can scarcely believe that Bernanke thinks this will work.
And meawhile, what's with all the other shadow banking assets that just sit there putrifying into a stinkier pile by the day. I dont think the TARP is big enough to cover that dungpile up.
@ Dragonfly
Pirated goods from China?
I guess there's a possibility.
Rumours alone didn't bring down these firms. The fact was the rumours were true ... they were insolvent ... no?
Are insolvent.........ARE!
For demand, some households are doubling up during the recession, with people moving in with friends or relatives.
In some neighborhoods it's easy to see because the parking goes to hell in a heartbeat. Always too many vehicles around.
Comrade not Ben Stein
What brought BS down was that they had a huge clearing and prime brokerage operation that generated a lot of cash which they used to finance their balance sheet which contained many long maturity assets which were down in value....the problem was that the clearing and prime brokerage customers could pull their business at a moment's notice - which they did in spades - but the assets were tough to sell (particularly given the amount they needed to sell). Were they bankrupt? No, JPM paid $10/sh for them...were they insolvent? Yes...was their business model any different than the old borrow short/lend long model that crushed the thrifts 25-30 years ago? nope...btw, its the same biz model used by any company with lots of short term financing in place.... FHLMC, FNMA, GE, insurance industry, etc....
Another factor due to recondos:
Condo conversions usually take time. Most of 'em involve a cosmetic makeover, new appliances and maybe some granite. Several months to nearly a year depending on how thorough and how much of it is in the common areas. (The individual units can be done as tenants leave, but extensive common area might require all the tenants gone before worke commences) So those condo conversions temporarily removed housing from the supply and masked the oversupply of housing that was becomming available due to new construction.
Offering the units for rent OTOH takes NO time. The only thing that takes time is for the wish rents to come down to what the market will actually support.
What products does China produce that is not a knock off or paid for by multinationals?
Are there any? Do they have a homegrown industry that they are the world leader in?
donailin, I've lived in the Boston area for a while. I don't see rents falling, especially in Allston. 1800 on an updated 3 bed is a deal though, but I do find it bizarre they are looking this early and landlords are letting this early. I bet he could negotiate with them on the terms and a payment schedule. How bout a loan from pop?
Tell him to look in the Central Square area too, which is a really great neighborhood (tons of live music) in Cambridge. Plus its on the redline and he can take a quick bus down mass ave to Berkeley. Nobody should have to live on the green line.
The really telling part of that advertisement is the phrase "WE ACCEPT LARGE DOGS".
I think I saw a mortgage company with a similar advertisement in 2005.
Nye Co., NV - the desert with underground water
Black Star Ranch | 02.22.09 - 1:31 pm | #
The kingdom of Nye...
Americans cannot complain of ripoffs. Your own publishing business got started by pirating the works of Charles Dickens. The primary reason he toured America was to get the American publishers to pay royalties. He toured in vain.
OT, but this seemed like such a wonderful example of bank double-dipping-at the same time banks are being bailout out by taxpayers, they're nickle & diming people receiving unemployment benefits--(charging people to check their balance!). Both the VA & SSA manage to do electronic deposit of benefit checks without having to privatize the process. And both SSA & the VA have been almost chronically underfunded & understaffed since Reagan.
Presents a good argument against privatizing gov't functions, imho.
Jobless hit with bank fees on benefits - Personal finance- msnbc.com
Mock Turtle,
Here's a counter balance to your post on the DOW theory from Barrons:
I've got to agree with the basic premise that the DOW is flawed - look at the S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000.
in univ town like where I live, the signs for Fall rentals normally start in March. This year they started in Feb. Many a LL here is nervous as we still units that were vacated suddenly in Oct and Nov and contributing the the upswing in vacancy rates.
for the dow theory guy, hope this helps:
\t \t The entire point of compiling an average in the first place is to facilitate historical comparisons. Absent being placed in historical context an index is completely meaningless. Indeed, the dow is constantly reported in the corporate media in relation to some value in the past. Obviously, in order for historical comparisons to make sense the components would have to remain the same. You guessed it. They haven't. If a company starts doing poorly it is removed.
Looking back through my college notes I found a list of the 30 components from around 1992. Eleven of the thirty had changed (wait, make that 12, AIG recently switched for Kraft Foods).
Here is the list with an X by those that have been replaced with better performing companies.
1X- \tAllied Signal
\tAlcoa
\tAmerican Express
\tAT&T
2X- \tBethlehem Steel
\tBoeing
\tCaterpillar
3X- \tChevron
\tCoca-Cola
\tDuPont
4X- \tEastman Kodak
\tExxon
\tGeneral Electric
\t Motors
5X- \tGoodyear
\tIBM
6X- \tInternational Paper
\tJP Morgan
\tMcDonald's
\tMerck
\t3M
\tPhilip Morris (now called Altria)
\tProctor and Gamble
7X- \tSears Roebuck
8X- \tTexaco
9X- \tUnion Carbide
\tUnited Technologies
\tWalt Disney
10X- \tWestinghouse
11X- \tWoolworth
â¦and who were the replacements?
Citigroup, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, Honeywell, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Pfizer, Verizon, Wal-Mart, American International Group (replaced by Kraft foods on Sept. 18).
Cut Bait writes:
What products does China produce that is not a knock off or paid for by multinationals?
Are there any? Do they have a homegrown industry that they are the world leader in?
Hmmmm... same could be said of Japan just a short time ago.
Some learn from their mistakes, some learn from the mistakes of others.
my most valuable possession is the words i have yet to reveal and the knowledge in my head.
off topic Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 12:57 pm | #
Hertz, OT | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 1:02 pm | #
Otis O.T. Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 1:23 pm | #
Original O.T. Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 1:30 pm | #
Otis T. Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 1:32 pm | #
Otis Truth and Justice Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:09 pm | #
Otis Pain Now Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:12 pm | #
Otis eat fud Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:22 pm | #
Otis Poster Child Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:30 pm
Sadly, sometimes "knowledge" is better left unrevealed
Here is a link to the Dow 30:
Dow 30 Components - CNNMoney.com
Many of them are troubled, dying companies.
And declining rents puts more pressure on house prices (the rent vs. buy decision), and this should also start to impact CPI since Owners' equivalent rent (OER) makes up about 25% of CPI. - CR
This is hugely important. Since house prices haven't been counted in the CPI for a long time we had hidden inflation for years. Now we will have very visible deflation.
got any links that have info on the land you're talking about?
sneering nihilist | 02.22.09 - 1:35 pm | #
There always is lots and lots of available land in Nye but now there will soon be even more as a number of land owners have been reassessed UPWARDS to their horror. Otherwise Nye is crashing...
correct me if i'm wrong but i beleive the dow components are selected by the editors of the wall street journal?
Presents a good argument against privatizing gov't functions, imho.
IMO a good government would punish private institutions for predation, but the basic "public vs. private" argument should be structural - i.e. what needs to be done at a state level (e.g. highways) vs. what can be more efficiently done by private industry.
The idea that government should be doing something because private industry is doing it in an abusive fashion, however, imputes qualities to governments that history doesn't seem to validate - the worst abuses against people in history have been carried out by governments. There's simply no reason to think that because government does something it will result in collective good.
If you assume that government exists on a higher intellectual and moral plane than the rest of us, then yes this conclusion makes sense.
Real world evidence seems to suggest this is not the case.
"garbage in, garbage out.
why not apply this theory you like to s&p equivalents like s&p transports? not like they don't exist.
dow numbers are for propaganda.
hell, sample size of 30 should be a big warning sign to you if you have had a statistics class.
nuthin personal but seriously reconsider what you said for your own good?
"
I don't know, perhaps because S&P only goes back to 1950's and DOW to the late 1800s. You know more historical data and such.
Your comments show that you know dick about Dow Theory.
Lord Nicholas Stern Paints Dire Climate Change Scenario: Mass Migrations, Extended World War
More good news.
correct me if i'm wrong but i beleive the dow components are selected by the editors of the wall street journal?
Otis crap pants Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:47 pm | #
... who also conjure up the magical divisor, which is tantamount to changing the denominator in the equation for the average.
"â¦and who were the replacements?
Citigroup, Hewlett-Packard, Home Depot, Honeywell, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Pfizer, Verizon, Wal-Mart, American International Group (replaced by Kraft foods on Sept. 18). "
So what you are saying is that using the DOW Transporation and DOW railway components as a proxy for the US economy is invalid because the DOW 30 contains finacial companies?
Again there is a misunderstanding on this board of what the DOW Theory says and what it tracks.
In the philly burbs, saw an apartment advertising 1st month of rent is free..... Looks to be about a grand a month for rent too.... from the area. Plus in my complex on my street there are a few apartments that have been empty since turkey day.....
You know more historical data and such.
Your comments show that you know dick about Dow Theory.
\t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:51 pm | #
keep your theory, smarty, use it well. clearly you have a problem understanding that historical comparisons are meaningless when you are comparing two different things. i couldn't make it more clear.
do i need to get out some apples and oranges for you?
Too bad for me they don't allow pets...
The Dow's lack of value can be seen in the fact that Dow futures are thinly traded, while the S&P futures offer a lot of liquidity.
Again there is a misunderstanding on this board of what the DOW Theory says and what it tracks.
\t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 2:56 pm | #
i'm all ears.
Wikipeda on what DOW theory tracks
" To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.
Both Barron's Magazine and the Wall Street Journal still publish the daily performance of the Dow Jones Transportation Index in chart form. The index contains major railroads, shipping companies, and air freight carriers in the US."
Transporation and shipping, NOT DOW 30.
"keep your theory, smarty, use it well. clearly you have a problem understanding that historical comparisons are meaningless when you are comparing two different things. i couldn't make it more clear.
do i need to get out some apples and oranges for you?
Otis apples Hertz | Homepage | 02.22.09 - 2:57 pm | # "
So, using an index that tracks transportation as a proxy for industrial production is comparing apples and oranges because the underlying companies change from transport company A to transport company B isn't valid?
I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports.
Our economies are so intertwined, Clinton said in an interview today in Beijing with Shanghai-based Dragon Television. It would not be in Chinas interest
Wikipeda on what DOW theory tracks
Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 2:58 pm | #
ok first, nice source. second, sounds good in theory. in practice you are still trying to predict the garbage numbers if the industrials which is a deliverance dick dance if i ever seen one.
More drumbeats for nationalization:
EDITORIAL; The Government and the Banks - NY Times
I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports.
\t Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | \t \t \t \t02.22.09 - 3:02 pm | #
clearly you know more about your pet theory than me, and it does make sense in thory. i'm questioning the validity of and the honesty behind Dow generated indexes.
ova - nice bit of parasitology there!
I'll try to get time to edit my story later today.
Need to go shopping and perform patriotic service first.
C
Yahoo CEO plans major overhaul: reports
btw, its INDICES dammit.
so much chatter, no talk about the forex implications of the UBS drama...
bueller?
"I don't think I can make it any clearer. The fact that HPQ and Verizon is part of the DOW 30 has nothing to do with the Dow Transports.
Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 3:02 pm | #
clearly you know more about your pet theory than me, and it does make sense in thory. i'm questioning the validity of and the honesty behind Dow generated indexes.
"
I don't even use the DOW theory. But it does bother me when people castigate a rather (to me) valid theory without displaying a knowledge of what it really means or is based on.
Do you prefer to use the fake S&P earnings estimates or the fake DOW earnings estimates? You seem to believe that S&P numbers are more valid.
I don't see any indication of that.
From Reptillian's NYTimes article: "Current management would be fired an appropriate end for executives whose failures have brought their companies and the country to this dark and dangerous point."
... an appropriate end ??? Someone does not know how to spell "livid".
If it were clearly in China's interest to keep investing in US bonds Clinton would not have to urge them to do so. You urge people to do something they have good reasons NOT to do.
btw, its INDICES dammit.
bgates | 02.22.09 - 3:13 pm | #
thanks bgates.
In fact I wonder if it was wise for her to say anything. She just draws attention to the problem and make the US look "strapped" which, of course, it is.
so much chatter, no talk about the forex implications of the UBS drama...
bgates | 02.22.09 - 3:13 pm | #
i am eagerly awaiting 3pm PST to see if there is any follow through on fridays big moves.
i think the UBS drama is just our con artists trying to engineer swissies down since historically they have been a safe have currency.
not to downplay how messed up swiss bank balance sheets are. i just see what is going on with UBS and US tax collectors as hitting them when they are down
Rents in west LA (here meaning west of western) are still stable, maybe down a little. However, there are lots of vacancies, and way more houses for rent (at silly prices) then in previous years.
RE asking prices are still stupid, the only stuff selling are the few properties that underprice the majority of listings. Still a few buyers who think this is a great time to buy.
Lots of denial here still. Waiting impatiently. . .
apologies if someone already posted this, but I gotta say it:
hoocoodanode
Stephanpoulos show today
Bank Nationalization: "As American As Apple Pie"
"Over the last several weeks, you have seen something that was radioactive even six months ago, the idea of nationalizing major banks in this country, moving towards something of a consensus," Stephanopoulos said.
There wasn't a panelist who disputed the idea -- indeed, naysayers were mocked. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman scoffed at the notion that the White House was one of the few remaining holdouts, picking apart the Obama administration's comment as a sophisticated sidestep.
"That Gibbs statement was masterful," Krugman said of the remark by Obama's press secretary that a "privately-held banking system" regulated by the government was optimal. Some interpreted it as White House opposition to nationalization, but Krugman argued otherwise. "It sounded like a reassurance [but he] was actually saying what everybody believes. Nobody wants the government running the banking system for any length of time."
Stocks are massively overvalued.
Stocks are sold on hope....hope is scarce these days.
If a stock was priced on it's actual dividend then prices would be much lower than now.
No one buy stocks without the prospect of selling for more later.
When that prospect goes...all that's left is dividend and risk.
With GM at a 74 year low, "stocks always goes up" is dying a slow death.
When people factor in the risk of stocks going to zero, then dividends will have to pay more than alternative investments, not less.
For the last few decades CD's payed much higher returns than dividends since you were sacrificing the opportunity costs of growth.
Now dividends will have to pay significantly more than safe CD's to make up for the risk of stocks going to zero.
Now may be the time to buy long term, but this long term will prove longer than we have left to live. We are two generations away from irrational hope again.
Santelli is a wall street mouthpiece pay for by CNBC's parent.
Do you actually thing these rants are not written and staged?
Wall Street ponzi scheme "bankers" are afriad of Obama ending the party.
Santelli and CNBC are scum.
I was wondering why rents are falling..I mean with people evicted from their homes they have to live somewhere right?
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
thanks
Here is my idea, the Fed buys ShamWows from all the kiosk vendors at the mall to get the velocity of money back up. Then when they get some traction the ShamWow can absorb all that liquidity injected into the system and prevent inflation.
This plan will also help Germany's economy too. I don't see how it could fail.
" they have to live somewhere right?"
cars, relatives, parents
I don't even use the DOW theory. But it does bother me when people castigate a rather (to me) valid theory without displaying a knowledge of what it really means or is based on.
Do you prefer to use the fake S&P earnings estimates or the fake DOW earnings estimates? You seem to believe that S&P numbers are more valid.
I don't see any indication of that.
Formerly POIC, trying ZEN | 02.22.09 - 3:15 pm | #
i don't see how silly earnings estimates are relevant to our discussion about indiCes.
i go tno problem with the idea of:
Stock market averages must confirm each other
who would?
okay..that is true..maybe parents..
is it that drastic that people are living in cars and relatives..also any data or articles that prove that..
I was just wondering if this is a high end apartment phenomena..
thanks for the response
but seriously - just show up at an abandoned place somewhere like the IE or FL... with a moving truck. take the sign off the door and make yourself comfy!
6 months free living.
New Thread: CNBC: Stress Test Details on Monday ( 1 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements.
.
.
.
.
Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
--Your glass-is-half-full-but-its-falling-off-the-table bot.
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
Ministry of Truth writes:
Here is my idea, the Fed buys ShamWows from all the kiosk vendors at the mall to get the velocity of money back up.
Actually I bet the guy behind the ShamWow could come up with a solution to our woes. Have you seen his new product, the Slap Chop?
I'm thinking he could invent something like a Scam Slam or maybe a Bank-No-Tank. Perhaps a Declino-Unwindo...?
Well, I'm sure he'll think of something.
" any data or articles that prove that."
doubt it - many, many folks are falling off that grid...
if marginal rates shoot up (which they will) many previously wealthier folks will too to some degree
Rents are in free fall in Vegas. I recently moved into a nice 3/2 condo for $900 a month. Those rentals that are overpriced just sit and sit. Too many rentals and not enough qualified renters.
haha..sounds good till you get caught...
Is it fair to ask your landlord to reduce your rent..when all your apartments are taken? Is this more of CA, FL, NV, AZ phenomenon
Graingod mentioned that rents are stable in Mpls... that seems far too generous. Mid to high-end rent in suburban complexes are off around 10% (1 free month's rent). Anything on the high-end ($1,500+ per month) is experiencing the Wile-E-Coyote effect of ballooning supply. I think a lot of screwed flippers are putting units on craigslist, but they know that there is really no chance they will get anything that comes close to their expenses. Granted, there are a few suckers out there who will pay what is asked.
I can't comment as much on the low end. I know complexes are hurting, and the supply is huge, but I am not sure where prices have gone.
"but seriously - just show up at an abandoned place somewhere like the IE or FL... with a moving truck. take the sign off the door and make yourself comfy!"
But what about "forcible entry" and "unlawful detainer" laws?
people who get paid for by others who are made to pay too much to support them.
The overpaid welfare queens are the people of Alaska, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippie.
The overtaxed?
NY, Cal, Illinois
look it up
The Tax Foundation - Federal Taxes Paid vs. Federal Spending Received by State, 1981-2005
is it that drastic that people are living in cars and relatives..also any data or articles that prove that..
jason | 02.22.09 - 3:33 pm | #
go ride a bike downtown portland and along the river.
what i see is truly heartbreaking.
our society has failed it's own.
that makes sense..i guess high end is being affected drastically..with low end..i wonder if it is isolated to large complexes...
thanks for all the responses...
Average Joe: Yes. And one factor that has yet to enter the Wall Street consciousness is that in the end, it is DIVIDENDS, not EARNINGS that matter. When a company is expanding, it is not unreasonable to assume that earnings will be invested in a way that will increase production. That's why in normal times, earnings is considered a good metric of a companies performance. And retained earnings avoid the double taxation of dividends. But with much of the economy suffering from overcapacity, there's little reason to believe that retained earnings, future OR past are going to result in higher future returns.
I just negotiated a 13% decrease in my rent. This is in Manhattan.
....and not just apartment rentals..my car lease is expiring and I was offered a 10% discount to keep it WITH the option of terminating the lease at any time
I have noticed rents weakening around here (Ventura County/North LA County area) over the last year or so.
Last year they were already offered a free months rent. I choose to amortize it over the entire lease. Anyhow, I just got my lease renewal and they are giving me the same rate + a $200 lease signing bonus. They are advertising $50/month less than my rate though.
Over the last year it seems rents have gone down around 5~10%. At least in the market segment I'm looking at.
See my squat and pay taxes posts of several threads ago.
Yeah, breaking & entering is a crime, but in practice, is the bank even gonna know what's happening to the house unless its listed?
The realtor will check the house, but I doubt the bank will.
I doubt the police would do anything.
Yes, some people are doubling up. But you left out all the people falling thru the cracks and living in Hoovervilles. Homelessness was the missing white woman story of the 80's. You couldn't get away from it on the teevee. The level of homelessness we have now would have seemed unthinkable in the 70's. Now it's so pervasive it's become invisible and completely unremarkable.
I have noticed new clusters of older RVs. People are living in them. One is near my gym, the other is close to the beach in unincorporated LA county.
I expect to see a lot more of this. RVs can be gotten for cheap. Easy to move somewhere new. Moderate storage for 1-2 people. With a friend or relative who has a regular house to visit once in a while, probably workable.
CA is adding a new 3 month foreclosure delay, in addition to all the existing new delays:
bubbleinfo.com » Thinking of Buying?
This is like not washing dishes for a week. Youre just going to end up with more dishes to wash, and a bigger stink.
Why are we purposely extending the housing decline?
As someone who used to appraise real estate in DC in the midst of the last crash, I'll never get tired of people who tell us to let them know when DC rents will go down. Yeah, yeah, albany NY is irrelevant and we only have to worry when DC starts to suffer.
let me guess, you didn't live in DC in 1992.
Go talk to DC1000 about your theories of DC being recession proof.
But I do appreciate your arrogance and ignorance and will make money off of it along with a bunch of other idiots like you. Keep believing you are different. I'll keep taking your money.
pop!
popeye
ac
thanks for your reasonable arguments calling into question my suggestion that the dow theory (the industrial average down confirmed by the transportation index down confirms a sell signal
you make good points
i tendered the previous article because i thought it interesting and i must admit i lean that way
but the barrons article certainly makes me questio
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
In the WaPo real estate section I found 2 complexes in Vienna, VA offering 3 and 4 months free rent. Their 2 bedroom apartments start at $1200/month - low end for the area.
With all of the new and remodeled buildings available, the older unremodeled properties are offering the largest incentives.
Bubbles writes:
If a parent of small children looses a job, the parent can at least cut down on childcare expenses (which are our biggest budget item), by having the children at home. How should the parent be able to work for the government without getting extra money for childcare?
mike2 writes:
- Could it be just high end apartments that are falling coz people are rushing to low end..
In the WaPo real estate section I found 2 complexes in Vienna, VA offering 3 and 4 months free rent. Their 2 bedroom apartments start at $1200/month - low end for the area.
With all of the new and remodeled buildings available, the older unremodeled properties are offering the largest incentives.
agreed......i drove past the large new condo-to-apt development at Rt 28/355 in rockville today....looks like a nice place but that's another hundred or so units on the market
graingod writes:
Mpls is starting to see rents going down, too, e.g. see under
A renters' market | StarTribune.com
It isn't a big down movement yet, however.
Seattle rents are starting to slip, especially on all those townhouses built in the past several years. It's all anecdotal, but I'm seeing places stay empty for two or three months and others dropping their rents siginificantly.
Excellent - America is becoming a nation of rootless cosmopolitan renters just like the hyperurban Jewish money-masters want...landless renters are easier to control and COMPLETELY DEPENDENT on The System for ALL of their most basic needs...thus they are not much more than slaves, or cattle if you want to look at it nicely.
Excellent - America is becoming a nation of rootless cosmopolitan renters just like the hyperurban Jewish money-masters want...
It appears the stench of death is bringing the rats out of the cellar.
Debt deflation is bad enough. Let's hope some of the other blights from the dirty '30s aren't making a comeback as well.