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What's the problem? My Citigroup stock is up 40% already.
So is this the Mama Bear or the Papa Bear?
1997? Is that when Britney Spears was still hot?
Barry's got a good lookin chart too Bear Market Comparisons, 1929-2009 | The Big Picture
does that mean I can return the last 12 yrs of my life? I'd love to be under 30 agai
But the 4 bad bear chart is from Fridays close.
669 Visitors.
Any way to plot unemployment along with the CRVIX?
Title of first graph:
Bonfire of the Equities
Who's buying?
The market has spoken.
Buy S&P at 666.66 ???
Bulls let me just say, you disappoint me. You're screwing up everything.
1997? Is that when Britney Spears was still hot?
Asun | 02.23.09 - 4:09 pm | #
-----
Brit was still jail bait in 1997:
Birth Date: December 2, 1981
Giving credit where credit is due... Obama's and his CBO guy are making good noises about reducing future budget deficits, espcially "paygo", etc. They're projections will turn out to be hugely optimistic, but at least they're sounding a good note.
Reality cannot be ignored for long.
That's not chocolate around my mouth. That's doo-doo baby!
I had a fairly good time in 1989 and the previous recession, so if we keep going backwards, things will never turn around in my lifetime. Obama needs to shut down the derivatives market and take control of this chaos! He is a fool to depend on the retarded bullshit from his staff; he needs to take action today and play hardball!
Does this mean flannel is back...
Egads! It's the dreaded Dolly Parton formation! Where's Dolly's bottom?
Reality Engineering -- the profession of the future.
Repeat: 6 handle tomorrow??
Order in of Campbell's Soup at 23, 24? Umm, ummm good. I'm still dithering.
but at least they're sounding a good note.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 02.23.09 - 4:12 pm | #
Did they mention they support a strong dollar too?
Update the 4 bears, please...
Reality cannot be ignored for long.
Lucifer
Same for gravity
For those of you who read the comments at Ritholtz graph page:
It's is not:
"Old skydivers wisdom: it aint how far you fall that kills you - its the ground."
Rather:
"It's not the fall that kills you. It's the sudden stop."
So is this the Mama Bear or the Papa Bear?
Nemo | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:09 pm | #
Coxe finally admitted a few weeks ago that it is a mama bear.
Cramer 180...must be long
The markets are in pure chaos, Cramer said Monday, because of a lack of leadership from the Treasury department.
Cramer criticized Timothy Geithners unwillingness to address the public with a clearly defined idea of how to save the financial markets. What will happen to the banks? Will preferred shares be saved? What about bonds? Instead of answering these questions, Geithners reserved his statements for just a few select reporters.
His recklessness is shocking, Cramer said, and Geithners failure to act will continue to be reflected in the averages.
lawyerliz writes:
6 handle tomorrow??
lawyerliz | 02.23.09 - 4:13 pm
This week at least, me thinks.
I'm saddened, no longer is my S&P500 below 600 before year end 2009 a bold call.
Should be able to find stability around S&P500 in mid-400s in 2010, and stay flat for at least a year
Not very useful because it doesn't account for possible loss of trust in either the USD or US equities.
That stock chart is a teats up pattern.
That can't be good - d'oh!
I like the charts on the latest blog entry on Mr. Short's site, lots of fun:
dshort.com: Regression to Trend Update
The state of Washington sent out $1 checks to the 250,000 food stamp recipients in the state.
404 | Tri-City Herald : Mid-Columbia news
Damn it's getting tough out there.
I stand corrected from the previous thread. Here's some appropriate 1997 music:
Dailymotion - Notorious BIG - Mo Money Mo Problem - une vidéo Musique
ritz camera bk
Business Week Online > File Not Found
Sebastian's Dad writes:
Does this mean flannel is back...
Sebastian's Dad | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
Actually it is making a big come back.
1 song from 1997:
Barbie Girl - Aqua
69:
Quit Playin' Games (With My Heart) - Backstreet Boys
Very bad year for music, which indicates that stocks will fall back another decade to 1987:
1.\tLiving On A Prayer - Bon Jovi
72.\tHeaven Is A Place On Earth - Belinda Carlisle
Hmmm?
Today's close of 7,114.78 is the lowest Dow close since May 7, 1997 (7085.65).
yagij writes:
1997? Is that when Britney Spears was still hot?
Asun | 02.23.09 - 4:09 pm | #
Brit was still jail bait in 1997:
Birth Date: December 2, 1981
OK, so she was hot jail bait.
EvilHenry: Did you ever get around to starting your own bank?
lawyerliz writes:
6 handle tomorrow??
Handle of something, certainly. Probably Aristocrat.
PS. Ritholz's chart that Dafox points to above is very illuminating.
When unemployment reaches 10%, will this song come back onto the charts?
YouTube - UB40 One In Ten 1981
I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced..
I was still married to the 1st husband in 97. Ah, the lessons we learn....
Is this capitulation?
Biggest double top in history.
1997... not the year. That's the Dow!
How does someone host a "Summit of Fiscal Responsibility" just days after flushing $900 billion down the toilet?
Brit was still jail bait in 1997:
Birth Date: December 2, 1981
yagij | 02.23.09 - 4:11 pm | #
Depends on the age of consent of the state?
Hey UB, I'm sorry, ok, I friggn screwed up!
Like I said, we're now in a momentum-driven market. The more stocks drop, the riskier it is to be too exposed to the double short ETFs. I took some profits off the table in both SRS and TWM today. I'm still all-in on EEV and QID, though.
The other side of the momentum is gold, silver, food and industrial metals.
I think gold and silver both have plenty of room to run from here, with not as much risk as the double short stocks. You would think food and industrial metals would be down big today but not so. They were about flat (down a few pennies).
I've got my eye on TBT but haven't pounced yet. My entry target is about 42-44, and I would wade in.
My Wright B model predicts a recovery by Friday. Buy now or be priced out forever.
Depends on the age of consent of the state?
Asun | 02.23.09 - 4:19 pm | #
-----
And the age of the John who she is with.
If you are north of 20, it doesn't matter how close to 18 she is...
Gonna jawbone that deficit right on down.
The market is not in chaos. People are selling in a most orderly way.
It is merely way 'way down.
It was not in chaos on the way up was it?
The Latest from Denninger:
Confidence GONE: More Concealment by Government
Order in of Campbell's Soup at 23, 24? Umm, ummm good. I'm still dithering.
lawyerliz | 02.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
Better to get your Campbell's soup at Costco.
Tangibles, baby, tangibles.
The four bears is done by Dough Short. Not CR, give them both a break, if I were them I'd be checking the damage to my accounts, and dshort has customers that come before us.
He will update his great chart when he gets the time.
Now can I just say WAAAAhhhhaaa, hey BHO is on TV.
"How does someone host a "Summit of Fiscal Responsibility" just days after flushing $900 billion down the toilet?"
Ask Michael Milken. I hear he puts on swinging summits too.
ROTFLMAO:
Yoda is seen to be visibly disturbed after the deaths of many Jedi during the Great Jedi Purge in Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. He falls to his knees and grasps his chest, as if in pain himself. This shows the interconnected nature of the force, especially its bond with the Jedi that were killed. In episode IV, Darth Vader was able to sense Obi-Wan through his interactions with the force, and in episode VI, Vader and Luke Skywalker were able to sense each other.
There is a party in my shorts. And all red days are invited.
Second graph reminds me of how many saw-toothed rallies and declines we have to go before we declare a lost generation, or two.
--bh
Uncle Billy,
No, no Bank of EHP -- probably good for the FDIC, I might do something crazy like invest all the deposits in loans to Maple Syrup startups
````
from last thread, I said either Gold falls or the S&P500 rises in the next ~ month by 10%
just tossing it out there fore discussion
If only panties dropped this fast...
Dear China:
Please appoint a Trustee In Bankruptcy In Residence at The White House.
Yours In Socialism,
Kilgore Trout
Throw money at zombie financial companies? Check. Rape taxpayer to pay wall street bonuses? Check.
That first graph is the market tits up in the road.
The state of Washington sent out $1 checks to the 250,000 food stamp recipients in the state.
Anonymous | 02.23.09 - 4:16 pm | #
Well that seems efficient....ANd here I'm on layoff watch, waiting for the budget to be finalized...
Feels about right.....I have always thought that the real insanity as regards to bubbles began around 1998 so it is no surprise that we would work our way back to pre-bubble madness pricing.
Now R.E. prices just have to come down to 1997 levels and then we have to overshoot to the downside on the equity markets pushing us back to maybe early 90's levels and then we will probably be close to the bottom.
Joanna writes:
I was still married to the 1st husband in 97. Ah, the lessons we learn....
Hey, lost the ex that year, still looking for my next ex-wife.
Interesting times
they dropped faster on the way up, the love of money
What is problem? Citi is up almost 10%!! XMAS Bonuses in July!
CR: Thanks for posting this.
I like 1997, not so sure about 1982.
Change we can believe in!!!!
Is this capitulation?
No just the slow grind down to hell.
Greenspan made his "Irrational Exuberance" speech when the Dow was at 6,437 (December 5, 1996).
Anonymous writes:
1 song from 1997:
Barbie Girl - Aqua
69:
Quit Playin' Games (With My Heart) - Backstreet Boys
Very bad year for music, which indicates that stocks will fall back another decade to 1987:
Let's just skip the '70 please, go straight to '67 ... maybe Brian Wilson will release 'Smile' as scheduled this time around.
Four Bad Bears becomes...
3 Blind Mice TG BB BO
When do we get an irrationally depressed speech?
Public private partnership. Isn't that China? Were all China now.
On the bright side, we're halfway through the 29 chart.
After today I may need to pinch myself.
I did a quick calculation of my portfolio returns since last May: 1,924%.
What are they doing day to day to survive in Iceland?
Anger is growing among Ireland's population over financial crisis and deepening recession, ministers said on Monday, with one describing the country's banking scandals as "economic treason".
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
I know that feeling.
do you think there will be carnage in japan tonite after all this monkey business
Anon: Hey I did too.
I might do something crazy like invest all the deposits in loans to Maple Syrup startups
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 4:22 pm | #
The Asian Long Horned Beetle is raising hell with maples.
Coming to a maple grove near you....
Have to go pick up my car.
JWN] Nordstrom late-traded shares climb 11% to $12.60
[JWN] Nordstrom Q4 net income 31c vs 92c a share
Hey CR, you should sue MarketWatch.com for stealing your headline:
MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
"Stocks party like it's 1997"
Washington state spent 30 cents (bulk mail rate?) to send everyone a dollar. Super fucking genius.
GS - wow.
Here's another bear market comparison chart, using a slightly different type of graphic. Also prettier colors. Looks like this one beats all the others except for GDI.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/bear-markets-comparison-xlrg.gif
I might do something crazy like invest all the deposits in loans to Maple Syrup startups
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 4:22 pm | #
The Asian Long Horned Beetle is raising hell with maples.
Coming to a maple grove near you....
Comrade Terry | 02.23.09 - 4:28 pm | #
Terry,
I'm assuming you're in the Worcester area. True?
BTW, keep them down there
@ Gavshire Hathaway
Holy crap man. When do you start your hedge fund?
do you think there will be carnage in japan tonite after all this monkey business
rsadge | 02.23.09 - 4:28 pm | #
-----
Maybe. It is still mostly Kermit across Asia, but the Hang Seng quote is from yesterday (their time)
809
Ahh 1997. I remember it well. Sitting in calc class right about now senior year of highschool. wasnt even sure what the stock market was....
Still not all that sure.....
Thats two things that havent changed I guess....
...................
Gavshire Hathaway,
Damn! You took a little bit of risk this past year, no?
Nicely done.
lawyerliz writes:
When do we get an irrationally depressed speech?
We have nothing to fear - but lawyers with CDO's, SIV's, and other off balance lies.
I'm not a gold bug, but I do have to wonder what a piece of paper printed by the FED is actually worth.
Where my postcard from Amex? I want my $300 for leaving them!
Cancel Amex, Get $300
I would have left for $100, typical corporate stupidity. I'll go back to watching the mailbox from the window now.
ades - I was in 1st year university. Thinking the same thing.
In 1997 we had just bought this house. The future looked bright.
Washington state spent 30 cents (bulk mail rate?) to send everyone a dollar. Super fucking genius.
Change, my ass | 02.23.09 - 4:29 pm | #
LOL. Administrative costs probably tripled that!
I have seen the future, and it looks like this:
YouTube -
Wait . . . you all sound surprised. My take was everyone here expected this to happen.
Gavshire,
I hope you invested enough to retire off that type of gain....you made almost 20x your money?
Comrade Terry,
That's because of warmer winters in the US Northeast. The maple syrup production territory is moving northward -- eg my cunning investment plan for a new gold standard, the maple syrup standard. Even more divisible, constrained supply, useful in its own right, easy to appraise. By investing now, you could have a taste of the next DeBeers cartel
"Holy crap man. When do you start your hedge fund?"
Have people learned nothing from Uncle Bernie?? You have to boast conservative consistent returns.
I'm assuming you're in the Worcester area. True?
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:29 pm | #
St. Petersburg, Florida.
I keep up on things in my childhood home of New England (northern Maine).
And all the roads jam up with credit,
And there's nothing you can do,
It's all just bits of paper flying away from you,
Oh look out world, take a good look
What comes down here,
You must learn this lesson fast and learn it well,
This ain't no upwardly mobile freeway
Oh no, this is the road,
Said this is the road,
This is the road to hell
YouTube - Chris Rea - The Road To Hell Full Version
gh you the man
Tu Grande cajones!
The four bears is done by Dough Short
Nobody in Hawaii | 02.23.09 - 4:21 pm | #
It's Doug Short, but Dough Short is more appropriate!
832
I'm assuming you're in the Worcester area.
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:29 pm | #
Are you in woo-sta? I went to whoopie.... Wow it was miserable....
scone writes:
Here's another bear market comparison chart,
Nothing found for Blog Wp- Arison- xlrg.gif
scone | 02.23.09 - 4:29 pm | #
Wow, falling stars, blue chips, etc.
Gavshire, congrats. Those ultra ETF options are really fun.
Ok, so if EvilHenry is going to monopolize maple syrup, got to game the pancake industry fast.
GH was it thru etfs, pure shorts, shorts with leverage, or good ole fashion options???
St. Petersburg, Florida.
I keep up on things in my childhood home of New England (northern Maine).
Comrade Terry | 02.23.09 - 4:32 pm | #
Are the maples to which you refer in St. Pete (incidentally, I lived in Pinellas County for about 5 yrs. in my teens) or Maine, and where are the beetles?
xxxxx
Looking at that S&P chart I see a massive double top. Going DOWN...
TCA writes:
The four bears is done by Dough Short
Nobody in Hawaii | 02.23.09 - 4:21 pm | #
It's Doug Short, but Dough Short is more appropriate!
Sorry going off of memory, which is kind of blasted right now, thanks for the correction.
Banker lobby head says "pleased with the administration"
DIAF you whores
Gav - excellent....! My best ever was 42% in one week.
Small but good: I made 300% on NCX in nine days! I think DuPont might thrump the Saudi offer, but Id rather have the cash now thanks very much.
Jumped out of FAS w/ 8% gain at the open. Bought the stuff at Friday's close.
At the close today, rolled into oil.
Took some GE at the lows for long term.
Dont know of a good way to play NatGas for a long hold.
In 1997, Larry Summers was Deputy Treasury Secretary.
I'm assuming you're in the Worcester area.
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:29 pm | #
Are you in woo-sta? I went to whoopie.... Wow it was miserable....
nades | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:34 pm | #
Undergrad or Grad?
Anonymous | 02.23.09 - 4:36 pm |
was me
Let's just skip the '70 please, go straight to '67 ... maybe Brian Wilson will release 'Smile' as scheduled this time around.
Samdog | 02.23.09 - 4:26 pm | #
'87 had great music if you lived in Seattle. Pre-grunge, into early grunge. Good times!
Under. '01... You?
Here's a milestone (and a buying opportunity!) for you...
At the close today, a single dollar will buy you a share of Fannie Mae and a share of Freddie Mac.
They each closed to exactly $0.50. Unfortunately, I own a bunch of each of them, due to the fact that I'm a U.S. citizen.
Dont know of a good way to play NatGas for a long hold.
Anonymous | 02.23.09 - 4:36 pm | #
CHK?
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Comrade Terry,
"That's because of warmer winters in the US Northeast. The maple syrup production territory is moving northward -- eg my cunning investment plan for a new gold standard, the maple syrup standard. Even more divisible, constrained supply, useful in its own right, easy to appraise. By investing now, you could have a taste of the next DeBeers cartel
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 4:31 pm |"
I wouldn't bet on that.
We have had global cooling for the past 16 months. Global temperatures are now at 100 year lows. Low solar activity and No sun spot activity is the reason.
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
I was born in Worcester, grew up in Sterling...Haven't been back there in years but still have family in Clinton.
[AIG] "...will report a $60 billion loss next week and if it doesn't get more government money by Monday it will file for bankruptcy."
.....I dare ya! I double-dawg-dare ya!
Anonymous (Barley?)writes:
"Dont know of a good way to play NatGas for a long hold."
NatGas is seasonal on a yearly cycle. Not sure why you would want the commodity on a long hold. Producers or pipelines maybe?
Damn! You took a little bit of risk this past year, no?
ShortCourage | 02.23.09 - 4:30 pm | #
Uh...yeah. I couldn't have done it without very strong convictions and a good deal of luck.
It probably also helped that I didn't have that much money to start out with, otherwise the swings would have been too much to bear. Risk tolerance goes down as the portfolio goes up. However, the concept of "playing with house money" has also had an impact.
I don't think anyone would want to be in this hedge fund. I've had peak to trough losses of above 60% at least three times in the past year. Makes you really second-guess your strategy when those happen.
But in general, I think that the pricing of risk in the market for derivatives is still completely out of whack for bear markets (put premiums are too sensitive to daily adjustments, rather than overall trend). Otherwise it should not be possible to generate the type of returns that I have.
Peasant Darkness said: "Wait . . . you all sound surprised. My take was everyone here expected this to happen...."
Indeed. I find it hard to believe that nearly everyone posting here isn't talking about their windfall profits. Why would so many posters here be complaining about the country going to Hell in a speedboat if they had profited so much by it?
Unless maybe all this wasn't as much of a mortal lock as I was told before the fact.
Sebastia
id like to see my rent and food prices fall back to 1997 levels. I know my income is.
Unfortunately, I own a bunch of each of them, due to the fact that I'm a U.S. citizen.
ShortCourage | 02.23.09 - 4:37 pm | #
LOL!
Funny you say that. As I was moving all the financials out of my portfolio over the last 9 months someone was putting them back in... Funny how that works.... >:O
Nades, Interesting Times: I was also a college underclassman.
Didn't ride the .com bubble (but heard about people a few years ahead who did), went looking for jobs after 9/11, then heard of people profiting from the housing bubble which meant that I, as a single person with student loans trying to establish a career, had no hope of buying.
At least I didn't lose much during the last year.
Soylent Productivity is credit!
Whether a mushroom cloud, or a piano falling on your head. Idea's about the same.
Funky stuff in Europe, particularly with the British Pound.
Woobbbly.
Here It Comes... - The Market Ticker
Managed to hold the barbaric relic above 995 on a day of desperate liquidations. Nice to have some PM junk in the trunk.
Under. '01... You?
nades | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:37 pm | #
Where did you go for Grad School. NEastern?
"maple syrup standard"
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 4:31 pm |
maple syrup is similar to gold in that the above ground supply in storage is YEARS of annual production. Air tight, maple syrup can be stored for YEARS. The retail price has fluxuated (and even slightly declined) over the last several years.
What are they doing day to day to survive in Iceland?
lawyerliz | 02.23.09 - 4:27 pm | #
http://newsfrettir.com/
AIG May Seek to Convert U.S. Preferred Shares to Common Stock
AIG May Seek to Convert Preferred Shares to Common (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., may seek to convert preferred shares held by the government into common stock, a person familiar with the situation said.
A restructured rescue may be announced when the New York- based insurer posts fourth-quarter results, said the person, who asked not to be identified because talks with the government are private.
bad news: AIG $60B loss
good news: Consensus was $80B...
AIG BEATS THE STREET!!!
I was born in Worcester, grew up in Sterling...Haven't been back there in years but still have family in Clinton.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:38 pm | #
How long was your family out of power in the last ice storm?
Peasant Darkness writes:
Wait . . . you all sound surprised. My take was everyone here expected this to happen.
I knew this was going to happen years ago, when I bought Gold at under $500.
I'm only surprised at how long it's taking for people to face reality. I really should not overestimate the intelligence of the public, our leaders, or the "economists."
But I'm learning. I think there is a lot of money to be made by doing the opposite of what we're told is the best course. I think the posters here know more about what has and is yet to happen, than the high paid talking IDIOTS on the boob tube.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_q-Nng22Lka4/R_plubU9wBI/AAAAAAAAAWA/OcviMif8bAY/s400/soylent.jpg
FWIW, the bad bears graph on DS's site is updated...
re nat gas, there's always consol. both that and ung have fairly deep option books methinks
Does this mean flannel is back...
Sebastian's Dad | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
No, burlap, its the new cotton.
How long was your family out of power in the last ice storm?
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:40 pm
My Aunt and Uncle lucked out and didn't lose theirs, their Grandkids lost theirs for about 4 days and split up between their parents houses so they had a warm place to stay..It was a mess.
@Gave a shire half away
Please tell us you began with six figures!
@ Sebastian,
The overall direction was a mortal lock....it's the noise that kills you the traders and the gov't has been making unprecedented amounts of noise.
Anybody who just positioned for hell and stuck with it did great so far.
I was born in Worcester, grew up in Sterling...Haven't been back there in years but still have family in Clinton.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:38 pm | #
My father pruned apple trees at Nate Chandler's orchard in Sterling and at Bob Davis' orchards in Bolton and Sterling. I poled out the trees for 10 cents a tree on school vacations.
Party like it's 1932
Didn't ride the .com bubble
Hubbert | 02.23.09 - 4:39 pm | #
I remember it well. Lots of CS and EEs getting offers of a 120K+.... I was civil and graduted right after the crash... ouch!
...................
xxxxx I'm in SoCal now. SDSU (evenings, whole degree cheaper than two quarters at whoopie)
Why would so many posters here be complaining about the country going to Hell in a speedboat if they had profited so much by it?
Unless maybe all this wasn't as much of a mortal lock as I was told before the fact.
Sebastian
Sebastian | 02.23.09 - 4:38 pm | #
Because most here still need a job!
Producers or pipelines maybe?
sm_landlord
Already gotz lotsa paper in pipelines. Most yield is 5+/avg 7 years.
"Otherwise it should not be possible to generate the type of returns that I have."
Gav - when I scooped a 42% gain in one week I said the vey same thing!! I think my words were that "if I could do this something is wrong"
Black Star Ranch writes:
[AIG] "...will report a $60 billion loss next week and if it doesn't get more government money by Monday it will file for bankruptcy."
.....I dare ya! I double-dawg-dare ya!
I TRIPLE DOG DARE YA.
Oh No, he broke etiquete and skipped over the Triple Dare, and went right for the Triple Dog Dare.
Are the maples to which you refer in St. Pete (incidentally, I lived in Pinellas County for about 5 yrs. in my teens) or Maine, and where are the beetles?
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:35 pm | #
The beetles are in New England, after having been introduced from China about thirteen years ago as hitch-hikers in some pallets. I don't know what the current range of distribution is, but they're on the lookout for them in northern Maine, which has a maple syrup industry. They are similar in appearance to the White Spotted Sawyer.
JBR writes:
"FWIW, the bad bears graph on DS's site is updated..."
And boy does it look ugly...
I'm curious as to how many years of growth the DOW lost in 1929 - 1932. What did the few years leading up to the crash of 1929 look like?
Sebastian, your updated investment account statement is now available online:
YouTube -
My Aunt and Uncle lucked out and didn't lose theirs, their Grandkids lost theirs for about 4 days and split up between their parents houses so they had a warm place to stay..It was a mess.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:42 pm | #
I'm 2 towns north of there, and lost power for 12 days. However, the day of the storm I drove to Conneticutt and bought a generator, so it wasn't too bad.
My Mom worked for Chandler's orchard back in the 70's. They used to have the migrant workers from Jamaica come up to pick, Mom and her friend would cook them huge batches of stew and soups to eat as a gift each year.
Yup It's ugly. Convergence with the big bear within a month !
"I was born in Worcester, grew up in Sterling...Haven't been back there in years but still have family in Clinton."
Used to play in a band in the late 80's and gigged in Worcester at some lebanese restaurant regularly. Also dated a girl from Clinton. That town looked frozen in time back then...
I'm in SoCal now. SDSU (evenings, whole degree cheaper than two quarters at whoopie)
nades | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:42 pm | #
Okay; you're not who I thought you might be. LOL
Enjoy the weather
Calm down folks, only a speed bump. Only 765 people on CR right now.
When it's over 1,000, then ya know it's getting interesting.
"/cr/tard writes:
id like to see my rent and food prices fall back to 1997 levels. I know my income is.
/cr/tard | 02.23.09 - 4:38 pm |"
My income has never gotten above 1997 levels. I'm a machinist. Sigh.
The state of Washington sent out $1 checks to the 250,000 food stamp recipients in the state.
Anonymous | 02.23.09 - 4:16 pm | #
This is what we have to look forward to with the govt running anything!!
Why the hell people want govt to get involved with anything is beyond me.
Ignore my son, he is an idiot and I am now broke working the streets to rescuse myself from financial ruin...
Migrant Workers = Refused to Pay Americans decent wage.
(ah , the white man's burden )
I want to coin the new terminology first!
401K will soon be known as 41K plan!
.
GH was it thru etfs, pure shorts, shorts with leverage, or good ole fashion options???
nades | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:35 pm | #
Majority of gains are from options. Sometimes even call options on ultrashorts (though the risk tolerance required is insane -- don't think I'll try that again). Sometimes hedging with ultralongs.
My best positions were WM, LEH, FNM/FRE, GGP, HIG, STI, COF, C.
I've had some losers too, as you can't win them all. But if you can pick 'em at 75% you'll do pretty well.
Used to play in a band in the late 80's and gigged in Worcester at some lebanese restaurant regularly. Also dated a girl from Clinton. That town looked frozen in time back then...
JBR | 02.23.09 - 4:44 pm | #
Ha, my Uncle owned the Greely Hill package store at that time...wow, small world.
Worcester, MA?
The beetles are in New England, after having been introduced from China about thirteen years ago as hitch-hikers in some pallets. I don't know what the current range of distribution is, but they're on the lookout for them in northern Maine, which has a maple syrup industry. They are similar in appearance to the White Spotted Sawyer.
Comrade Terry | 02.23.09 - 4:42 pm | #
There's an outbreak in Worcester, MA, and IIRC, they're cutting every infected tree down and burning it. We'll see how it goes.
I figured out what is going on. It's Wall Street selling off the market. They have determined that the goody bag is empty, and they can no longer rob J6P, because he is broke. Now they have to find new jobs and earn their money. Isn't that a disgusting thought.
AIG - "Give us another few BILLION, so we can have another party by the beach in So Cal. Otherwise we're going to collape the U.S. economy.
Naz is now down 73% from all time high 9 years ago...nothing is a bigger scam than the nasdaq and the tech market!
Doo-doo brown!
I thought the beetles came from a factory in Germany.
Please tell us you began with six figures!
Hedging in Liar Town | 02.23.09 - 4:42 pm | #
Nope I wish. Though the amount was still material.
GH thanks for the follow up.... Congrats!
,,,,,,,,,
xxxxx when did you graduate?
I thought it was Japan. We talking about the Emerald Ash Borer? or something else... (sorry, can't keep up)
xxxxx when did you graduate?
nades | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:48 pm | #
1994, from night school at a different institution.
"Ha, my Uncle owned the Greely Hill package store at that time...wow, small world."
heh... sure is. I remember driving into the center of town and thinking it probably hadn't changed since the turn of the century.
Probably all condo's and McMansions now...
I had to read that twice to get it.
Builder Bob said: "I'm curious as to how many years of growth the DOW lost in 1929 - 1932..."
I don't have data that far back on the Dow, but I do on the SP500 (Cowles' reconstructed data).
The SP500 returned to 1898 levels (yes, that would be the 19th Century) in 1932.
Sebastia
I thought the beetles came from a factory in Germany.
debtinator | 02.23.09 - 4:47 pm | #
Not in a long time, though they did manufacture the original Beetle in Brazil (or was it Mexico) for quite a few years.
We'll see how it goes.
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:46 pm | #
I hope they're more successful than with the Gypsy Moth and Dutch Elm disease. That was a tragedy to lose all those big, old elms.
"EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Comrade Terry,
"That's because of warmer winters in the US Northeast. The maple syrup production territory is moving northward -- eg my cunning investment plan for a new gold standard, the maple syrup standard. Even more divisible, constrained supply, useful in its own right, easy to appraise. By investing now, you could have a taste of the next DeBeers cartel
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 4:31 pm |"
I wouldn't bet on that.
We have had global cooling for the past 16 months. Global temperatures are now at 100 year lows. Low solar activity and No sun spot activity is the reason.
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids
Does everybody not get this yet or are you all still too brain washed.
"The beetles are in New England, after having been introduced from China about thirteen years ago"
I thought they came from England some 47 years ago. Are Ringo and McCartney so hard up they have to gig China and New England these days?
I mean, Ringo...maybe...But Paul?
Nostrovia,
Maybe Citizen Allenm is just a day or two early. But, if the markets are adjusting for fundamentals, like I believe they are, we're just getting started.
The SP500 returned to 1898 levels (yes, that would be the 19th Century) in 1932.
Sebastian | 02.23.09 - 4:50 pm | #
And if we went back to pre-Trickle Down Reaganomics... oh dear.
Whats up with after hours trading?
My Mom worked for Chandler's orchard back in the 70's. They used to have the migrant workers from Jamaica come up to pick, Mom and her friend would cook them huge batches of stew and soups to eat as a gift each year.
Comrade Kristina | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:44 pm | #
That's when my dad worked there, about 1975 or so. He just pruned trees in the winter. Chandlers bred labrador retrievers and we got one. My dad named him Benrus, the watch dog. I remember the Jamaican pickers as well. My father and his co-worker, Al Titcomb, stayed in the pickers' houses some nights during the week in the winter. Al lived in Charlestown and we lived in Brockton, so it was a 60 mile ride for them to prune the trees.
scone writes:
Here's another bear market comparison chart, using a slightly different type of graphic. Also prettier colors. Looks like this one beats all the others except for GDI.
Very nice. Maybe we should party like it's 1929?
I thought the beetles came from a factory in Germany.
debtinator | 02.23.09 - 4:47 pm | #
I can only report what I read.
Besides, I don't think the Germans would do that to us - would you Werner?
I lived there during the gypsy moth invasion...It was awful, they'd cover the ground, your house...You couldn't walk without squishing them...We had the Japanese beetles back then that ate rose bushes...
JPM cutting divy to 5c from 38c
And if we went back to pre-Trickle Down Reaganomics... oh dear.
JP | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:52 pm | #
Would make a lot of Liberals happy-
The SP500 returned to 1898 levels (yes, that would be the 19th Century) in 1932.
SebastianThere will be blood!
PS. JPM cuts divys from .38 to .05
I had to read that twice to get it.
nova | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:49 pm | #
Don't feel bad. It went over my head until you posted that!
Taleb Says U.S. Banking System Is `Designed to Blow Up'
Bloomberg News
scone, these threads are moving too fast
thanks for the link earlier!
So Gavshire, does "house money" mean you're not talking about your personal investments, but you're employed in the financial industry?
(don't worry, I'm not angry at you if you are...just curious)
After starting at Doug Short's 'bad bears' charts, I get the strong impression we're at some sort of turning point. Either we're somewhere near the bottom, or we continue to slide into GD2 territory. Just a gut feeling on my part.
The SP500 returned to 1898 levels (yes, that would be the 19th Century) in 1932.
SebastianThere will be blood!
PS. JPM cuts divys from .38 to .05
take a name ass wipe | 02.23.09 - 4:53 pm | #
From the looks of this graph,
it seems as though it dropped back to 1870s levels. Or maybe I've missreading it. BTW, thanks to whomever posted that earlier.
I thought the beetles came from a factory in Germany.
debtinator | 02.23.09 - 4:47 pm | #
Nope, Liverpool
Doug Watts, Some of the pickers would tell the greatest stories about Jamaica. I always thought it was a treat when Mom would bring me to work with her now and then to visit and talk with them. I used to ride up there on my horse to grab an apple for a snack, I was probably 11 or so...Haven't thought about that place in years...seems like a lifetime ago...
alybaba writes:
JPM cutting divy to 5c from 38c
alybaba | 02.23.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Let the death spiral begin!
Nordstrom says it beat by a penny and same store sales will plummet 10-15% this year. Futures market has Nordstroms up 10%+.
Makes sense to me.
Nostrovia,
who will be the first analyst to declare that we tested and held the November 21 intraday low on the S&P?
thanks for the link earlier!
Hoopajoops LTD
.
You're welcome! Our MLS is rmls.com, but I'm not sure you can access it from Cali. Raining hard here, BTW.
Would make a lot of Liberals happy-
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Presumably conservatives will also like non-leveraged pricing.
The beetles are in New England, after having been introduced from China about thirteen years ago as hitch-hikers in some pallets. I don't know what the current range of distribution is, but they're on the lookout for them in northern Maine, which has a maple syrup industry. They are similar in appearance to the White Spotted Sawyer.
Comrade Terry | 02.23.09 - 4:42 pm | #
Are you talking about the black spotted asian beetles? I swear I saw some of those last summer here in NH, and thought - those are weird looking. I'm going to be on the lookout for them this summer with a vengeance. Another reason I want to get my chicken flock going.
Nordstrom says it beat by a penny and same store sales will plummet 10-15% this year. Futures market has Nordstroms up 10%+.
Makes sense to me.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:56 pm | #
maybe any company that makes positive income and doesn't need a bailout is now a screaming buy??
scone, did you just say that markets will go either up or down? LOL.
Outsider | 02.23.09 - 4:57 pm
Look up guineas. They are, supposedly, tick eating machines.
Are we there yet? To the bottom I mean.
Forget the efficient allocation of capital. That's some pretty efficient deallocation of capital!
RockyR | 02.23.09 - 4:58 pm
No. You will need to maintain "cheerful" for awhile longer.
asian beetle infestation areas
Man, everything I've planted in my yard over the last decade has a killer pest now. I'm already pre-treating the ash for the borer every spring. Maybe I'll just do them all.
Gotta remember, nature always bats last.
And if the markets were open on the weekend DOWN WOULD GO FRAZIER!
Either we're somewhere near the bottom, or we continue to slide into GD2 territory. Just a gut feeling on my part.
scone | 02.23.09 - 4:55 pm | #
Just try not to lock your knees. A little flex might help the impact.
From the looks of this graph, it seems as though it dropped back to 1870s levels. Or maybe I've missreading it. BTW, thanks to whomever posted that earlier.
xxxxx
.
I like this one with the 'shadowstats' CPI, which calculates using the old CPI formula, I take it. Mr. Short is suggesting a 'near trough' on that one.
dshort.com: S&P Regression to Trend: Real and Alternate-Real
ote doug's other graph, inflation adjusted. Tech & and the 70s bear were worse, but look how steep ours is...point is that we have a ways to go. IMO. 10 months minimum toward 80% loss from peak.
For years I've wondered what will it take for Americans to fill the streets in protest.$5/gal gas didn't.
Iraq hasn't. How about a betting pool on when the following events happen?
1. Massive urban demonstrations.
2. REAL multiple banks runs.
3. A Wall streeter/hedgie is gunned
down in the street in broad daylight.
4. Poltical assassination(s)
5. A 21st century Kent State occurs.
6. Declaration of martial law.
7. Widespread looting of food sources.
8. USA backs down on one or more ultimatums on the internation stage.
My prediction: ALL OF THE ABOVE by year's end. (Not gonna be a good year for retail)
If the S&P just meanders for a couple months we'll be on the second downward track for GD-I on the 4 bad bears chart.
Maybe a world war will come quicker this time to get us back into gear (literally, manufacturing).
Repeat: 6 handle tomorrow??
lawyerliz | 02.23.09 - 4:13 pm | #
Dead Cat bounce tomorrow. Will have to wait a few more days before we get there. That's MY prediction... but, my predictions are always wrong. Go figure.
The global conspiracy to crash the financial system is revealed here:
The Seminal » Connect All The Dots – Solve The Entire Global Crime
Raining stock prices really hard here, BTW.
\t scone | \t \t \t \t02.23.09 - 4:57 pm | #
So Gavshire, does "house money" mean you're not talking about your personal investments, but you're employed in the financial industry?
Hubbert | 02.23.09 - 4:55 pm | #
Its my own money.
I meant that I've now taken my principle off the table, so the only thing at stake is the profit.
JPM - .38 to .05
JPM just cut their quarterly div on commmon shares from 0.38 to .05
NICE
Would make a lot of Liberals happy-
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 4:53 pm | #
Presumably conservatives will also like non-leveraged pricing.
JP | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:57 pm | #
Should have added a "/snark". I was trying to make a joke about eliminating the Reagan Era, but it obviously failed miserably.
Mabye bonuses will go out of fashion and dividends come back.
plunger writes:
The global conspiracy to crash the financial system is revealed here:
You need to be more emphatic about the Jews and Freemasons roll in this conspiracy.
Thanks, Gav.
All the more impressive if you're working a full-time job while managing so well.
Peasant Darkness: You should read Second Nature if you haven't yet.
Amazon.com: Second Nature (9780385312660): Michael Pollan: Books
[JPM cutting divy to 5c from 38c]
Let the death spiral begin!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:56 pm | #
We already know the S&P P/E is negative. Is this really really negative number going to change the math?
Imagine trying to sell the S&P to a reasonable investor with the label stripped from the proposal. "Well it has lost most of its value and is losing money and not paying dividends but... well no buts."
Look up guineas. They are, supposedly, tick eating machines.
nova | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 4:58 pm | #
I looked into those, but folks say they're very loud. I had some suggest Muscony Ducks.
Should have added a "/snark". I was trying to make a joke about eliminating the Reagan Era, but it obviously failed miserably.
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 5:03 pm | #
Sorry, it might also be my sarcasm detectors are clogged up from the partisan bickering earlier today.
"Man, everything I've planted in my yard over the last decade has a killer pest now. I'm already pre-treating the ash for the borer every spring"
Spring is on the way. That much you can depend on:
pavel.libsyn.com
Gavshire:
I wrote this earlier but deleted on grounds of propriety.
But now I have to write it.
You are the Ron Jeremy of economic doom porn.
You see a company with a hole in it and you can't control yourself.
There, I said it.
No disrespect intended. Just kind of amazement.
Gavshire Hathaway said: "I meant that I've now taken my principle off the table, so the only thing at stake is the profit."
That profit is now your principal. Just a word to the wise, as I know a thing or two about losses and how they can happen.
Sebastian
LET THE PONIES HIT THE FLOOR
LET THE PONIES HIT THE FLOOR
LET THE PONIES HIT THE FLOOR
ONE
I'M NOT A BANK
TWO
I'M NOT A BANK
THREE
I'M NOT A BANK
Just try not to lock your knees. A little flex might help the impact.
Joanna
.
I don't know that it will be quite that vertical. If it does go GD2 I'm thinking more of a stepwise motion, or 'step and choke.' Probably still some room for the short players.
I'm certainly going to sit on the sidelines accumulating cash until I can see the pattern better. But still, my spider sense is going off like crazy, and it's been right in the last few big events, what can I say. Is there such a thing as 'woman's intuition' investing?
Rob Dawg,
By the time the crisis-phase is over, stock dividend yields will be greater than bond yields. If you are comfortable with that premise, it casts a new light on future stock pricing
Nordstrom says it beat by a penny and same store sales will plummet 10-15% this year. Futures market has Nordstroms up 10%+.
Citizen Scotto | 02.23.09 - 4:58 pm | #
Nordstrom plans to open 10 discount outlets this year - http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2009/02/23/story2.html?b=1235365200%5E1781542
A year ago, Nordstrom's plan for store growth in 2009 included opening five full-line department stores along with two discount Rack stores. But that was before the bottom fell out of the economy. Now the Seattle-based retailer that caters to an upscale clientele is banking on its discount Rack stores to help it drive sales. In 2009, Nordstrom plans to open 10 discount Rack stores, out of 13 new stores overall. The emphasis on opening more Racks is part of Nordstrom's strategy to navigate a serious economic downturn that has erased jobs and personal wealth, and eroded consumer confidence. Nordstrom executives say it makes sense to emphasize value and savings, even for a company that prides itself on its customer service and caters to shoppers looking for designer and luxury clothing, shoes and cosmetics.
note doug's other graph, inflation adjusted. Tech & and the 70s bear were worse, but look how steep ours is.
The magic of overdriving the system with leveraged derivatives. Look Mommy! I've turned my sine waves into square waves!
J.P. MORGAN CHASE CUTS DIVIDEND 86% IN BID TO DEFEND CAPITAL BASE
4:30pm 02/23/2009
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- J.P. Morgan Chase said late Monday that its board cut the company's quarterly dividend to 5 cents from 38 cents, effective for the dividend payable April 30. "The board anticipates maintaining this level for the time being. This action will enable the company to retain an additional $5 billion in common equity per year," the financial firm said in a statement. Shareholders of record on April 6 are eligible to receive the dividend. J.P. Morgan also said its first-quarter financial performance to date is solidly profitable even after significant additions to reserves, and the outlook for the quarter is roughly in line with analyst expectations. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research are forecasting J.P. Morgan to earn 34 cents a share on revenue of $21.93 billion in the first quarter.
On the Ritzholt chart, we are 40-50% of the way through the length of the 1929-32 and 1946-49 declines.
150-160 weeks of decline looks pretty awful given our measely 75 weeks so far.
GS - I would love to get your trades (going forward) in real time
I'm flat for the year... made most of my cash on the way up and a few quick shorts/etf on the way down to recover some bad timing.
Scone:
You sure that tingling isn't an earth tremor?
Party like it's 1929
2
[JPM cutting divy to 5c from 38c]
Are we close to the point where I can start storing money in my mattress?
All the more impressive if you're working a full-time job while managing so well.
Hubbert | 02.23.09 - 5:03 pm | #
Thanks -- I do have a day job. Though there have been noticeable declines in productivity...
As an aside: it is hard to sit through meetings utterly helpless as the Dow rallies several hundred points...wiping out several months months worth of salary.
Fiscal Responsibility? Not from this Congress...
February 23, 2009 4:18 PM
ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports: The House Appropriations Committee just posted its $410 billion 2009 Omnibus spending bill. It's a doozy. This is the bill that will fund the government's operations until the end of the fiscal year. It's larded with thousands (so many, I can't count them all yet) of earmarks and adds up an increase in overall discretionary spending of more than 8 percent, the biggest one year increase since 1978 (with the exception of the spending boost after the September 11 attacks).
And this is a bi-partisan feeding frenzy. Roughly 40 percent of the money for earmarks (i.e. pet projects inserted by individual lawmakers) have been inserted by Republicans.
Fiscal Responsibility? Not from this Congress... - The Note
note doug's other graph, inflation adjusted. Tech & and the 70s bear were worse, but look how steep ours is...point is that we have a ways to go. IMO. 10 months minimum toward 80% loss from peak.
blackhat | 02.23.09 - 5:01 pm | #
Denniger has suggested a bottom in the 4ks, as does plungewatch. 4k is, if I did my math right, about a 72% drop. I hope you're wrong, because I currently plan to jump back in when we get into the 4k range.
Scone:
You sure that tingling isn't an earth tremor?
I don't even want to ask about the "nightstand cowboy."
I think this graph over at dshort is of even more interest:
dshort.com: S&P Regression to Trend: Real and Alternate-Real
Notice how high above the trend line we got durring dot.com and now only sitting just on the very long term trend line, and it usually goes well below when it does goe below. Although if the shadowstats numbers are used, we are in better shape.
Are you talking about the black spotted asian beetles?
Outsider | 02.23.09 - 4:57 pm | #
Asian Longhorned Beetle - Anoplophora glabripennis.
The futures are looking a little Elmo
"We are all well capitalized now."©®
Anybody want a t-shirt, a mug, or a poster of a cute puppy going potty with the above phrase on it?
Nova:
I wouldn't have said that one.
She gets riled kinda easy.
In an English, understated sort of way.
You need to be more emphatic about the Jews and Freemasons roll in this conspiracy.
nova | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 5:03 pm
Feel free to add your theories and links to the thread.
"That profit is now your principal. "
Yes but if the profit comes fast and furious enough it doesn't feel like principal.
It only begins to feel like principal after it has been sitting in your account for a while for some reason.
Windfall profits are the best as they take the longest to actually make the metamorphasis from "found" money to principal that must be protected.
By the time the crisis-phase is over, stock dividend yields will be greater than bond yields. If you are comfortable with that premise, it casts a new light on future stock pricing
EvilHenryPaulson
Is this your take, EHP?
I sense a rally in JPM tomorrow on this good news.
Well, it's good news for the company, not so much for the shareholders, but who gives a shit about them anyways?
In an English, understated sort of way.
I regretted it as pressed 'submit." Alas, I am tired.
Scone:
You sure that tingling isn't an earth tremor?
homedad43
.
Nah. I live in Oregon, not Cali.
Muscony Ducks.
xxxxx | 02.23.09 - 5:04 pm | #
Make that "Muscovy Ducks"
I hate sharecroppers. All they do is complain when I ask them for my share of the harvest. And they sing all those damn Jesus songs when working the fields.
dr strangemoney writes:
Peasant Darkness: You should read Second Nature if you haven't yet.
Thanks for the rec. Since the ash went on permanent life support (well, until such time as it is literally the last one for a 100 miles) I've started ordering less common trees by mail from Musser Forests and planting at triple density, with the idea that something will survive. But they are very small still and mostly just get in the way of mowing.
I don't have Gavshire's cajones or smarts for the stuff he's done.
I'm just holding out the principal for the bottom.
But it continues to lengthen in the view, kind of like a long hallway in a horror film.
Unless maybe all this wasn't as much of a mortal lock as I was told before the fact.
Sebastian | 02.23.09 - 4:38 pm | #
Dude, it's hard enough to spot macro trends. Timing the fluctuations of the instruments you can use to bet on them is pretty damned hard.
Sorry, it might also be my sarcasm detectors are clogged up from the partisan bickering earlier today.
JP | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 5:05 pm | #
Glad I missed it
I can't seem to help jumping in and making it worse.......
addendum:
JPM @ $19.51 & 5¢ dividend per share =>
0.25628% dividend
For it to yield 4% with the present dividend, the share price would need to fall to $1.25
How long until we see the NYSE force the banks to do X:1 share conversions ?
Penny stocks ruin the reputation after all
Denniger has suggested a bottom in the 4ks, as does plungewatch. 4k is, if I did my math right, about a 72% drop. I hope you're wrong, because I currently plan to jump back in when we get into the 4k range.
xxxxx
Has Mr. Roubini revised his Dow forecast? I recall he said it would drop to 7K, but he may have later changed that to $6K, I can't recall.
Perhaps he's Still being too optimistic.
Scone:
You sure that tingling isn't an earth tremor?
I don't even want to ask about the "nightstand cowboy."
nova
.
Your self-restraint is admirable, nova.
You freakin' gloom and dommers need to do what the great W told you to do. Go shopping.
Rob Dawg,
By the time the crisis-phase is over, stock dividend yields will be greater than bond yields. If you are comfortable with that premise, it casts a new light on future stock pricing
EvilHenryPaulson | 02.23.09 - 5:06 pm | #
Yes. All we need is rational bond yields and rational stock dividends and... See?
You are the Ron Jeremy of economic doom porn.
homedad43 | Homepage | 02.23.09 - 5:05 pm | #
The "Hedgehog" of doom porn, huh?
4 Bear Chart updated on dshort
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
scone | 02.23.09 - 5:12 pm
My apologies. I will stoop to hateful, but rarely crude.
Good blog for Iceland news:
Economic Disaster Area
Barley,
It is my thinking that bond yields will be lower than stock dividend yields.
It used to be the rule up until 1958 if that makes it more palatable
homedad43 - imho, the divies will be cut by many in the next2 Qs, the prefs will take hits it too. Once this reality sets in, some may be much cheaper if your time horizen is 5+ years.
Anonymous writes:
You freakin' gloom and dommers need to do what the great W told you to do. Go shopping.
I miss the days under W, several months ago, when things were going well with the economy.
Must all be Obama's fault.
What happened to Macke on Fast Money? Did he get pulled because he was critical of Obama?
You freakin' gloom and dommers need to do what the great W told you to do. Go shopping.
I bought a few really solid LED flashlights and a headlamp, bought a couple kerosine lanterns on the cheap, reviewed my landowner friend's inventory and bought him a nice used motorized well pump...
scone,
there is a definite orygun set of regulars here at CR.
from whence do you hail my fine fellow?
In an English, understated sort of way.
homedad43
.
I'm not English. The DH is, I'm a born and bred American dope.
Are we close to the point where I can start storing money in my mattress?
Comrade Scared Shitless | 02.23.09 - 5:08 pm | #
If you do, then the question is how much will it cost to insure in case of a fire, burglary, etc.?
Hawley Smoot writes:
Good blog for Iceland news:
If global warming would just hurry up and melt the country, we wouldn't be having these problems.