FOX Business sued Treasury on Dec. 18 over failure to provide information on the bailout funds or respond to FBNs expedited requests filed under the FOIA. The initial request, filed on Nov. 25, sought actual data on the use of the bailout funds for American International Group (AIG) and the Bank of New York Mellon (BK), and an additional request, filed on Dec. 1, sought similar data on the bailout funds for Citigroup (C).
Screw the stimulus package, I am the recovery - replaced a 15 year old refrigerator and 10+ year old washer and drier this year. Probably replace a vehicle during this calendar year.
Send me the GD check Mr. Prez, my wife will singlehandedly increase the GDP by several percentage points.
I have heard some ridiculous shit called "the truth" before. This is up there. did he write that himself or does some poor bastard making 45 grand a year have to choke it out between sobs and gales of tittering hysterical laughter?
".....are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only "IF" that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery."
.....we don't live in the land of "should", "could", or "if".
Following is the latest up-to-date list of institutions impacted by the Heartland breach and - where available - the total number of cards compromised:
"To break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets."
We will also continue to ignore small business as none of my textbooks indicate small business affects job growth, innovation or the economy in general.
As to the size and scale of this new breach, were hearing mixed responses from smaller than Heartland to larger than Heartland, and given that we dont yet have a number regarding Heartland, it seems ever more speculative as to just how big this new breach is. One thing is certain, the two breaches amount to a lot of card replacements, a lot of bankers working overtime, and a lot of consumers inconvenienced, or worse, defrauded.
CR, it might pay to emphasize the "if" part of the last sentence. I sense that BB is choosing his words carefully in the beginning of that sentence to get to the end of the sentence.
The same Bernanke that failed to see the risks before the collapse? The same guy that saw a second half recovery last year? I think he had better stop making predictions.
IF our Skittle Pooping Ponies and Black Hole Eliminating Leverage work at 125% of capacity AND an interplanetary alien race buys up all of the rest of our debt, then we might potentially see some bit of recovery in the second or third half of 2010ish. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a date with a fifth.
wow! just read this from his statement "third, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities as well. "
Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never?
Or is the reasoning simply, "it usually happens this way"?
CR you bolded the end of this sentence but I think the key bit is the beginning:
"If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery."
Based on what we've seen so far, what are the chances of their actions being sucessful?
Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never? Andrew Foland | 02.24.09 - 10:42 am | #
Because 2010 isn't now. It's 'someday' or we'll see', or any one of those phrases parents use to mean Hell No!
I suspect the models BB is citing here are the same ones that predicted a new high plateau for house prices. To me what's interesting is the claim that we won't have higher inflation or a second half recovery, which indicates BB will dial back money supply expansion. Current levels probably would produce a (weak) 2nd half recovery, followed by substantially increased inflation.
goldigga, as Bondgirl once said, "you can't make something solvent by changing the definition." but in practical terms, it's a case by case for regional banks. if they were safe and low risk, potentially yes. keep an eye on Fitch CMBS watch lists, of course.
Fair Economist writes:
I suspect the models BB is citing here are the same ones that predicted a new high plateau for house prices. To me what's interesting is the claim that we won't have higher inflation or a second half recovery, which indicates BB will dial back money supply expansion. Current levels probably would produce a (weak) 2nd half recovery, followed by substantially increased inflation.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 10:48 am | #
I think he will rely on weakness in the ROW to keep price increases to a minimum. If this is the case money there is no reason to constrict money supply.
Things bottom in 2012, with recovery beginning in 2013.
There is that much household debt to pay off or write down.
The only thing that speeds this up is O- saying, 'Enough, government will step aside, provide emergency food, shelter, and security, allow and force the private sector to liquidate its debts.'
goldigga, the levels of money supply expansion pushed the Leading Economic Indicators to positive for the last 2 months. Obviously the models have to be viewed as extrapolated and not highly reliable, since these are unprecedented conditions over the post-WWII period we have decent numbers for. But, if the Fed expands enough we will see a recovery (possibly with nasty side effects, of course) and since this is the best estimate I know of for how much we'll need, I'm going with it.
and a drink. something appropriately high-proof that needs no ice -- all the better for keeping in a flask in your desk drawer at work. \t Anonymous | 02.24.09 - 10:56 am | #
If this is the case money there is no reason to constrict money supply.
He doesn't have to constrict money supply so much as increase it more slowly. M1 went up pretty fast these past few months (note-not zero based graph).
Not really......Greenspan was correct for a lot longer then one might have expected. Now if you take away his punch bowl that allowed him to be "right" that's an entirely different thing. I speak to the actual results shortly after the pronouncements of "all clear" were and continue to be given.
In light of ongoing concerns over the health of financial institutions, the Secretary of the Treasury recently announced a plan for further actions. This plan includes four principal elements: First, a new capital assistance program will be established to ensure that banks have adequate buffers of high-quality capital, based on the results of comprehensive stress tests to be conducted by the financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve. Second is a public-private investment fund in which private capital will be leveraged with public funds to purchase legacy assets from financial institutions. Third, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities as well. Fourth, the plan includes a range of measures to help prevent unnecessary foreclosures. Together, over time these initiatives should further stabilize our financial institutions and markets, improving confidence and helping to restore the flow of credit needed to promote economic recovery.
my confidence is soaring now that I know I can go down to one of the new strip malls I own as a taxpaying citizen while the mfer who built and never leased it sits in Rio with some hot brazilian lady, not giving a rats ass (obviously with a Rio lady around)about the losses and the futures he stole from children around the world.
Sorry my confidence will be restored only when we let stupid business decisions bankrupt the corporation not Citizens, when we prosecute all involved in this ponzi scheme, when we seize all the assets of these criminals, When we are not manipulated by rumors, sources and maybes, When the future of the children in this country begins to take precedence over the rich.
Andrew Foland asks: "...Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never?"
One of the NBER's recession indicators (real income after transfer payments) bottomed in September (2008) and has been rising since.
Piyush Jindal writes:
Meet the GOP's answer to Obama, and your next president.
No f'in kidding. NPR had this piece about the GOP hopefuls politically positioning themselves against the stimulus this morning. It started off with such butt-kissing, teenage crush like intensity about "Jindal, the GOP new rising star" that I had to change the channel before I drove my car off the road from the convulsive reaction to such crap. It is that TPTB are setting up the successor to Barry O'Bildenberg already
"Senator as I've said before, that kind of question would expose you and me to being hung for treason, so I think you'll agree that we'll both be better off when I tell you we are doing everything to ensure the recovery and we say nothing but ponies on the horizon. Mr. Schumer would you like to add some blathering non-sense to what I've just said?"
Schumer: "Shouldn't people fear small banks more than big banks? Shouldn't they withdraw their money from their local credit union and deposit with, say, Citigroup?"
He could have not gone Faustian, kept his day job, and get quoted in some jersey newspaper right about now, because after all, he is the expert on the Great Depression.
Nemo writes:
Schumer: "Shouldn't people fear small banks more than big banks? Shouldn't they withdraw their money from their local credit union and deposit with, say, Citigroup?"
--
David Rosenberg; 02/24/09:
Bottom [for S&P 500] will likely be in 550-650 range -- As an aside, we have penned in $46 for operating EPS for this year, so on our estimates the market is basically operating with a 16x multiple. Call us when we get down to a classic recession trough multiple of 12x we are at $54 for 2010E and at one point we will start to discount next years earnings stream which, on
our estimates, means the bottom will likely be in a 550-650 range.
I agree as long as the horizon is 6-9 months. My leveraged speculative account is positioned as follows in terms of gains/losses in 13 weeks from yesterdays close:
SPX (at the end of 13 weeks) Gain/Loss in round numbers
Greenspan was correct for a lot longer then one might have expected. MS | 02.24.09 - 11:04 am | #
All a matter of perspective. Fleck carefully documents how Greenspan's interpretation of economic data was almost always wrong. Times were good and Alan explained why, but nobody cared that the latter had nothing to do with the former.
So Michael Phelps gets the maim-stream-media once-over because he smokes the herb, and he loses valuable endorsements, which they make sure to emphasize, but lost in translation:
A stoner wins 8 Olympic Gold Medals.
Another genius stoner like Sagan, how cool is that?
Schumer: "wasn't there a lot of fraud going on, and there wasn't anything you could do about it was there."
Bernie: "I think that's right. When they asked for 0 capital reserves, we thought that was a BIG plus, no chance for gaming the system there. When they showed us the foxes they were going to use to guard the hen house, and explained that their training models showed that some foxes could be trained to not eat chickens, we thought this was a great idea."
So Ben basically just said they will stress test banks and then give banks more money without having to go to Congress for any kind of spending approval and that is what has been decided? Great.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements. . . . . Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
Yes yes, it was a joke. I'm not the world's biggest fan of Chuck Schumer.
Nemo
Too easy to believe. I'm sure he'll be there at the "Too Big To Fail" presser they'll have for Citi in the future.
1 currency almost [yogi],
Granted they are Inc'd in SD, most of their offices are in NY.
We absolutely believe that our private banking system is best off being in private hands and we are trying our best to keep it that way, said one senior administration official."
"They drop it, we pick it up. They throw it down from the high chair, we pick it up and give it back to them. They pound it on the table and break it, we fix it and give it back to them. They take it apart and throw the pieces out the window, we go get the pieces, put it back together, and give it back to them."
"Now they've taken it apart, put the pieces in the toilet, crapped in it, barfed in it, and want more help."
"We are considering what the government should do next. We are thinking it's time to ask the taxpayers to come in and get deeply and personally involved at this point."
The administration official requested anonymity, on the grounds that nobody in the current administration knew he was still on the payroll from last year, and he needs the money.
Gads, I wish Tanta were still here. It becomes obvious that many commenters are acting as bad as the "journalists" she used to condemn. As only a couple of people noted, he did not say it WILL be better in 2010. He said it MIGHT be better, IF certain things are done and happen. He also said (paraphrasing) that as things stand right now the economy is more likely to get worse than it is to get better.
Condemn Bernanke if you will (he's certainly earned more than a bit), but by Dog do so for what he says, not for the words you put in his mouth. Not if you wish to be considered credible, anyway.
"Management at AIG has calculated exactly how much money the Treasury and Fed will have access to after all of the TARP, financial stimulus, and mortgage bailout projects have been funded. The insurance company then plans to ask for whatever is left to fund its deficits so that it can stay in business, effectively making the federal government insolvent."
--
"This man really believes Jas, he thinks we are dopes."
AP'Shadow,
He knows for a fact that born-and-bred Americans ARE dopes, or at the very least they are politically impotent to be able to do anything. More importantly, his masters, Financial Nazis of America, know this fact. Hell, they were responsible for BREEDING Americans into dopes.
Propaganda Machine operated by the Financial Nazis has ruled over Americans for a very long time now. Born-and-bred American dopes ARE in denial.
--
What part of Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC), a term that I coined in 2003, don't people here understand?
I forecasted in 2003 that Financial Nazis of America were constructing Debt Concentration Camps for 30,000,000 American households. The dopes entered the camps willingly! I also told people in 1998 that Corporate Crooks of America had converted the so-called stock market into the Scam Market.
Maybe this is useful for some real fundamentals for you?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:28 am | #
nice! no i didn't have this, very handy. thanks comrade!
it one of those strange ironies, our 240' x 70' barge sunk this month (before we took ownership!). we are acquiring smaller one, from one of two sources. they are cheap now that metal scrap and trade has plummeted. i bet railcars are too...
I was just at a White House conference listening to a lot of people talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees. How can the same government that hands tens of billions of dollars to Citi's shareholders and top executives cut key benefits for the retirees? Why aren't the news reports calling attention to this massive give away to some of the nation's richest people?
--Dean Baker
The same f'ers that are gonna let Citi covert the taxpayers preferred crap pile into just common crap pile. Jas, take it from here....
serf alan, I think the multiplier change is because the banks are now depositing reserves with the Fed for the interest (which previously would have gone to money market accounts). The M0 measurement is totally ****ed as a result of this, and so is M1 multiplier (= M1/M0). Is there something else going on I haven't thought about?
Thank you, Jas, for your forthright and conscientious analysis. As you know, dopes do not have the intellect to realize they are dopes. They are conditioned to think they are smart and special, when really they are morons and dogshit.
If I'm right, you're looking at line 29, real personal disposal income. Instead you need to set up a spreadsheet.
(Line 22 - line 14) * (line 29 / line 22)
That gives you PDI - current transfers, multiplied by the adjustment factor of real PDI vs actual PDI.
Now September was indeed the low point, but it hasn't been climbing every month. In fact, December's RPDI(-T) is down from November's. I also suspect that we'll see another decline in January.
You're right, it's one tool the NBER uses. But the NBER says that unemployment is just as important, and implies that both need to be positive (regardless of other factors) for a bottom to be considered. As I noted way back when, the actual tendency is to wait till almost all the applicable factors are positive as almost every single factor runs counter-trend at some point - up and down cycle.
FE, that might be it with that size of volume about matching. something doesn't feel right though, the timing of the change, for example.
it must be wiggling of the TARP funds somehow, for their profit or caution or regulatory requirement. i just can't find any correlation externally yet.
(CBC) . . . A B.C. Supreme Court justice ruled Craig Fraser's condo could be liquidated â along with the rest of the three-unit building â after the two other owner-investors couldn't or wouldn't pay the repair bills for a leaky roof.
"It came down to two [owners] against one," Fraser said. "So, now I'm faced with a tough economy, being self-employed and having to move and rent and start over."
An investor was allowed to purchase the entire building at 1029 West 7th Avenue for the land value, approximately $1 million, following a July 23, 2008 court decision by Justice Victor Curtis. By contrast, the court estimated the building would have been worth about $2 million fully repaired. . . . Mary Buchanan, a realtor who lives in California, and Maurice Duteau, a mechanical engineer who lives in China, ultimately said they couldn't cover their share of the cost, while Fraser said he would.
"They just decided that they didn't want to repair it, and managed to convince the courts," Fraser said. As foreign investors, Fraser pointed out, the other two owners are able to write off losses against their taxes, while he has simply lost his primary residence.
While Wallstreet was robbing us blind most had Christmas year around with babbles from China being transported in foreign cars run by foreign energy on foreign owned highways.
It can't be fixed right now, only time as in years, will bring the USA back to what ever the next bubble will be. The financial bubble has busted.
What is really funny is how this board would become as quiet as a morgue if the start of a recovery actually happened.
sportsfan | 02.24.09 - 10:41 am | #
Yes , well there are many old time sayings; ex: "quiet as a morgue"
Here's one:
"IF pigs had wings they could fly...."
How about this:
The higher you - the harder you fall..."
See if you can finish this one:
"A few bad apples.....
My personal favorite has always been:
"Don't eat anyone's meatloaf but your mom's"
Sebastian, read the rest of my statement. I calculate real after transfers and show it's NOT been in consistent recovery. There was a reversal, but it's begun a decline again.
Yeah, I should have phrased the opening better, as in "I get different numbers, and so I think you're wrong." Not "I know what numbers you're using and you're wrong." I still, however, think you're wrong, and demonstrate why.
Msg to all losers: leave Jas Jain alone. If you disagree with him then you are probably one of the fools who spent too much on a house and looking for handouts.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes: \tIsn't absinthe illegal. Not that that would stop anyone.
no it isn't. just had a glass after a late afternoon swim...
the key ingredient is wormwood. most of the legal absinthe in the world today uses what's called a tincture or essence.
this French version was as close as you can get... unless you go to Corsica where it's as plentiful as moonshine in Georgia and uses the real wormwood (no 3.2 absinthe there)
Coming back from the Dr. a short while ago, had the testimony on Sat Radio. Wife is riding along real quiet like, an I have to add, my wife is far from the brightest tack in the world, was born in the central Philippines in the middle of WWII, and has about a 6th grade education. She's got good sense, and pretty damn frugal. Anyway, we're turning down the home stretch and she looks at me, and just said "We're screwed aren't we?" I didn't think she was even listening.
bluefisher writes:
Coming back from the Dr. a short while ago, had the testimony on Sat Radio. Wife is riding along real quiet like, an I have to add, my wife is far from the brightest tack in the world, was born in the central Philippines in the middle of WWII, and has about a 6th grade education. She's got good sense, and pretty damn frugal. Anyway, we're turning down the home stretch and she looks at me, and just said "We're screwed aren't we?" I didn't think she was even listening.
bluefisher | 02.24.09 - 2:04 pm | #
Dosen't take a genius to figure that one out. We are NO UNIQUE SNOWFLAKE....Somalia, Russia, France, Iceland....Whatever the Gov't want's it gets...until "We The People"...put a stop to it. Force is necessary when the powers that be ignore the people.
Kirk Spencer said: "Sebastian, read the rest of my statement. I calculate real after transfers and show it's NOT been in consistent recovery. There was a reversal, but it's begun a decline again...."
Congratulations on proving that if I calculate something in one way (the way the NBER does) and you calculate it your way, the numbers are different.
Take it up with the NBER, since they're obviously doing it wrong, too.
Geithner deservedly gets a ton of criticism, however he is only a "Puppet", both Volckner and Summers have their hand so far up his ass, you can see their fingers when Tim speaks.
sweeeet!
On which calendar?
1st
First
BWA HA HA HA!
First?
take that Nemo!
(rally over)
So, Bernanke is retiring this year so we can all recover in 2010?
I am so calling bullshit on this...
Will it be a third half recovery?
FOX Business sued Treasury on Dec. 18 over failure to provide information on the bailout funds or respond to FBNs expedited requests filed under the FOIA. The initial request, filed on Nov. 25, sought actual data on the use of the bailout funds for American International Group (AIG) and the Bank of New York Mellon (BK), and an additional request, filed on Dec. 1, sought similar data on the bailout funds for Citigroup (C).
Court Enforces FOIA Request to Release TARP Details « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
Screw the stimulus package, I am the recovery - replaced a 15 year old refrigerator and 10+ year old washer and drier this year. Probably replace a vehicle during this calendar year.
Send me the GD check Mr. Prez, my wife will singlehandedly increase the GDP by several percentage points.
enough of the history lesson Benny
Time to go buy an Escalade! Need teh double bed version w/ the smoked out windows and RV AUX power and honeydipper connections..
I have heard some ridiculous shit called "the truth" before. This is up there. did he write that himself or does some poor bastard making 45 grand a year have to choke it out between sobs and gales of tittering hysterical laughter?
".....are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only "IF" that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery."
.....we don't live in the land of "should", "could", or "if".
Nemo writes:
On which calendar?
The one that starts after the collapse of civilization as we know it?
Ouch!
Following is the latest up-to-date list of institutions impacted by the Heartland breach and - where available - the total number of cards compromised:
More Than 500 Banks Hurt By Breach : Information Security Resources
The upside down hairdo man is reliable and creditable? I'm not so sure. Certain assets will bottom in 2010, but recovery is a long way off.
"I believe that, overall, the downside risks probably outweigh those on the upside."
quote of the year so far
FED buying agency bonds outright?
Isn't this the same guy that assured us sub-prime wouldn't affect the rest of the economy?
Just checking..
"To break the adverse feedback loop, it is essential that we continue to complement fiscal stimulus with strong government action to stabilize financial institutions and financial markets."
We will also continue to ignore small business as none of my textbooks indicate small business affects job growth, innovation or the economy in general.
Pravda!
Bernanke is an idiot. I don't know why people even give these morons consideration after how they fucked things up.
Well, perhaps the recession ends in 2010, thus marking the beginning of the depression.
--bh
Too many secrets!!
As to the size and scale of this new breach, were hearing mixed responses from smaller than Heartland to larger than Heartland, and given that we dont yet have a number regarding Heartland, it seems ever more speculative as to just how big this new breach is. One thing is certain, the two breaches amount to a lot of card replacements, a lot of bankers working overtime, and a lot of consumers inconvenienced, or worse, defrauded.
Undisclosed Breach Threatens Consumers : Information Security Resources
CR, it might pay to emphasize the "if" part of the last sentence.
I sense that BB is choosing his words carefully in the beginning of that sentence to get to the end of the sentence.
Agree with JP.
--bh
could someone please explain why the market has shot up 80 points since he started talking?
As you can see, I get excited when the bearded douchebag speaks.
It's opposite day...
blackhat writes:
Well, perhaps the recession ends in 2010, thus marking the beginning of the depression.
Thanks, I needed that Laugh.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues
2010: A banker's Fantasy
When is he going to stop talking?
supafly73 writes:
Nationalization is the New Niggah! You cannot say the word in the USA unless you are a rapid fire commie!
supafly73 | 02.24.09 - 1:12 am | #
Only a few months ago it would have been up 700.
"The country is well-capitalized". That should have been his concluding line.
The same Bernanke that failed to see the risks before the collapse? The same guy that saw a second half recovery last year? I think he had better stop making predictions.
Oh, yes, the magic "if" word. Always protects you from being wrong.
"Sorry honey, but, 'if' didn't happen. Next time if you dress like a man like I asked, it will. It is your fault."
What is really funny is how this board would become as quiet as a morgue if the start of a recovery actually happened.
maybe its mark to market no more day
Fed to buy agency debt on Feb 24
How soon till we see direct monetization?
Timmy found the button. Hang on to your shorts.
IF our Skittle Pooping Ponies and Black Hole Eliminating Leverage work at 125% of capacity AND an interplanetary alien race buys up all of the rest of our debt, then we might potentially see some bit of recovery in the second or third half of 2010ish. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a date with a fifth.
Nostrovia,
This is really wild stuff.
wow! just read this from his statement "third, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities as well. "
Beginning in 2010 would make it a fifth half recovery.
Two years of low inflation? Man, I gotta get me one of them magical beards that let me see into an abyss, across the other side and out with clarity.
Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never?
Or is the reasoning simply, "it usually happens this way"?
What happenned to "contained" , "2nd half 2008 recovery" and "stocks always go up in a 10-year period" ?
Why aren't these people being laughed out of the country yet?
One day the littlest nomad goat boy asked Grandpa old goat boy "Why didn't they save the magic world before it fell down?
Grandpa old goat boy said "Remember when Mommy goat girl got the bite on her leg?"
"Yes"
"And we waited to long long to cut her leg off?"
"Yes."
"That is what happed to the magic land also."
2010 recovery? Maybe.
But that will soon be followed by an even more severe contraction in 2011 and beyond.
Yesterday's effusions regarding well-capitalized financial institutions also seems to have been penned in February of '08. Or perhaps even earlier.
We have boilerplate regression, gentlemen.
CR you bolded the end of this sentence but I think the key bit is the beginning:
"If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability--and only if that is the case, in my view--there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery."
Based on what we've seen so far, what are the chances of their actions being sucessful?
"it is essential we compliment stimulus"
"sportsfan writes:
What is really funny is how this board would become as quiet as a morgue if the start of a recovery actually happened."
I think the opposite would be true and maybe/hopefully the genital wart would be gone.
This clown has no credibility.
I was promised a second half 2009 recovery. I will never trust their predictions again....
Same fella that called the subprime "contained)!
\tBeginning in 2010 would make it a fifth half recovery.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 10:42 am | #
And by then, fifths will be an important consequence of the economy.
alan greenspend, Doesn't this mean that regional banks are now a strong buy? They can package up and sell of their crap CRE loans to the Fed...
Dubya was the decider.. Bernake is the foreseer..
Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never?
Andrew Foland | 02.24.09 - 10:42 am | #
Because 2010 isn't now. It's 'someday' or we'll see', or any one of those phrases parents use to mean Hell No!
OT: In China they put billionaire fraudsters in jail. How crazy is that?
Jailed Billionaires Show New Face of China as Markets Unravel
Jailed Billionaires Show New Face of China as Markets Unravel - Bloomberg.com
"it is essential we compliment stimulus"
"Wow, stimulus, you smell a little better than you did yesterday."
Interesting coincidence: Bernanke's term ends Jan 2010.
He won't be around in 2010. I don't think he wants to continue this job for 4 more years. Hitting on students is much easier and fun.
KERMIT!!!!
Is the Fed even relevant at this point ?
I think 2010 is the earliest ben could get a reservation at Betty Ford.
Darn, I wanted to see Ron Paul school Ben Bernanke again.
I suspect the models BB is citing here are the same ones that predicted a new high plateau for house prices. To me what's interesting is the claim that we won't have higher inflation or a second half recovery, which indicates BB will dial back money supply expansion. Current levels probably would produce a (weak) 2nd half recovery, followed by substantially increased inflation.
"One risk arises from the global nature of the slowdown,..."
So? Well? And?
prescription: take two Fed BS pills and call me sometime in 2010 IF....
Has a bird flown from his beard yet? When that happens, we'll know we've hit bottom.
2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery.
were talking about quarter over quarter growth....
y, after the current cliff dive is over, and were at 7-8Trillion gdp
goldigga, as Bondgirl once said, "you can't make something solvent by changing the definition." but in practical terms, it's a case by case for regional banks. if they were safe and low risk, potentially yes. keep an eye on Fitch CMBS watch lists, of course.
gosh, politicians make funny tv...
Fair Economist, could you elaborate on why you believe that current levels of money supply expansion would cause a (weak) 2nd half recovery?
Ben there's hope you will be able to retire...when will be the questio
At least we won't have BB to kick around anymore......
Has anyone (other than Paulson) been so wrong for so long? Speaking of course of the predictive powers.....
Not that I can think of.
Fair Economist writes:
I suspect the models BB is citing here are the same ones that predicted a new high plateau for house prices. To me what's interesting is the claim that we won't have higher inflation or a second half recovery, which indicates BB will dial back money supply expansion. Current levels probably would produce a (weak) 2nd half recovery, followed by substantially increased inflation.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 10:48 am | #
I think he will rely on weakness in the ROW to keep price increases to a minimum. If this is the case money there is no reason to constrict money supply.
in a shocking display of insanity.... kermit is jumping for joy on bernanke's words
I would like to propose a name for a new song, The Intraday Swing.
there's got to be some news that's been leaked - mark to market ends - mark my words
MS
NAR chief economist
OK, OK, if not in 2010, then 2011, for sure.
Everyone happy now?
Elmo is thrashing glod with a vengeance.
Risen up...
Greenpuke never taught pleasespankme the art of kick the can.
Wrong yet again, Bennie.
Things bottom in 2012, with recovery beginning in 2013.
There is that much household debt to pay off or write down.
The only thing that speeds this up is O- saying, 'Enough, government will step aside, provide emergency food, shelter, and security, allow and force the private sector to liquidate its debts.'
Four more years of pain. Thanks, O-.
Expert on the Great Depression will likely be remembered as the guy that couldn't stop the same thing from happening on his watch.
Irony is further cheapened.
Correct BB answer: Social Security checks will go a lot farther after thr deflation and depression, so yes people will be able to retire comfortably.
goldigga, the levels of money supply expansion pushed the Leading Economic Indicators to positive for the last 2 months. Obviously the models have to be viewed as extrapolated and not highly reliable, since these are unprecedented conditions over the post-WWII period we have decent numbers for. But, if the Fed expands enough we will see a recovery (possibly with nasty side effects, of course) and since this is the best estimate I know of for how much we'll need, I'm going with it.
I would like to propose a name for a new song, The Intraday Swing.
some investor guy | 02.24.09 - 10:53 am
there needs to be a dance that goes along with it.
and a drink. something appropriately high-proof that needs no ice -- all the better for keeping in a flask in your desk drawer at work.
Meet the GOP's answer to Obama, and your next president.
2010- space odyssey
Is there a way we can get him to stop talking? Like a mouth full of super glue or something?
sportsfan writes:
What is really funny is how this board would become as quiet as a morgue if the start of a recovery actually happened.
yes it would seriously test the "i'm more cynical and misanthropic than you" thing wouldn't it.
2010: Odyssey Two
and a drink. something appropriately high-proof that needs no ice -- all the better for keeping in a flask in your desk drawer at work.
\t Anonymous | 02.24.09 - 10:56 am | #
Absinthe.
oohh, Basel II, first time i've heard it out of BB's beard.
chiang mai economic agreement anyone?
Absinthe.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 10:58 am
If we were having this conversation yesterday I would have said nail polish remover.
Fair Economist, thank you.
Has anyone (other than Paulson) been so wrong for so long? Speaking of course of the predictive powers.....
MS | 02.24.09 - 10:51 am | #
Greenspan, obviously. Read Fleck's book; if ever there was an ironclad indictment, that's it.
Congress critter questions scripted and coordinated. They don't fool me.
forgot about Lereah......most people have too...
Ciao
MS
It's kinda weird, perhaps there have been more suicides than usual, but nobody has gotten hurt yet, just financially.
It's like a war without weapons, and there's financial wounded all over the place.
MEDIC!
Recovery will take years -- that means the bottom is here now!
Ummm...been following Ukraine's currency. I'm just waiting for Russian tanks to move in.
If this is the case money there is no reason to constrict money supply.
He doesn't have to constrict money supply so much as increase it more slowly. M1 went up pretty fast these past few months (note-not zero based graph).
warm up the bean ball
Bear-
Not really......Greenspan was correct for a lot longer then one might have expected. Now if you take away his punch bowl that allowed him to be "right" that's an entirely different thing. I speak to the actual results shortly after the pronouncements of "all clear" were and continue to be given.
Ciao
MS
In light of ongoing concerns over the health of financial institutions, the Secretary of the Treasury recently announced a plan for further actions. This plan includes four principal elements: First, a new capital assistance program will be established to ensure that banks have adequate buffers of high-quality capital, based on the results of comprehensive stress tests to be conducted by the financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve. Second is a public-private investment fund in which private capital will be leveraged with public funds to purchase legacy assets from financial institutions. Third, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities as well. Fourth, the plan includes a range of measures to help prevent unnecessary foreclosures. Together, over time these initiatives should further stabilize our financial institutions and markets, improving confidence and helping to restore the flow of credit needed to promote economic recovery.
my confidence is soaring now that I know I can go down to one of the new strip malls I own as a taxpaying citizen while the mfer who built and never leased it sits in Rio with some hot brazilian lady, not giving a rats ass (obviously with a Rio lady around)about the losses and the futures he stole from children around the world.
Sorry my confidence will be restored only when we let stupid business decisions bankrupt the corporation not Citizens, when we prosecute all involved in this ponzi scheme, when we seize all the assets of these criminals, When we are not manipulated by rumors, sources and maybes, When the future of the children in this country begins to take precedence over the rich.
rant off have a nice day
Andrew Foland asks: "...Why should there be a recovery in 2010? Is there an actual, substantive reason to think there might be one in 2010, rather than 2011, or 2012, or never?"
One of the NBER's recession indicators (real income after transfer payments) bottomed in September (2008) and has been rising since.
Raw data for that calculation is available here:
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Obviously it would take more than just this, but more real income is a start.
Sebastia
Bernanke shilling for the banks - can;t disclose it would hurt the banks borrowing - Ben you mean the ones that are already at $3 dollars
Piyush Jindal writes:
Meet the GOP's answer to Obama, and your next president.
No f'in kidding. NPR had this piece about the GOP hopefuls politically positioning themselves against the stimulus this morning. It started off with such butt-kissing, teenage crush like intensity about "Jindal, the GOP new rising star" that I had to change the channel before I drove my car off the road from the convulsive reaction to such crap. It is that TPTB are setting up the successor to Barry O'Bildenberg already
yay transparency! FOIA is approved by the courts for the (of all things) FOX News lawsuit, i've read.
BB, "the revelation would expose almost all of american banks." duh.
I guess that should be one of NBER's "economic" indicators, instead of "recession" indicators.
S.
If the bank doesn't come to the window because it doesn't want the stigma,
FUCK 'EM.
I was shopping at the 99 cent store and picked up a can of almond-flavored peaches and a share of citi.
That store is like a tribute to failed products.
Ummm...been following Ukraine's currency. I'm just waiting for Russian tanks to move in.
Now would be the time for Russia to make its move. I don't think anyone would stop 'em...
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
> something appropriately high-proof
Absinthe.
"Green Dragon".
Oh good Schumer's talking.
Any troubled financial institutions on your mind, Senator? Any banks we should withdraw our funds from, for instance?
Third half of 2010.
Oh God Schumer's talking. The only smart thing he's ever said was the warning on Indymac.
"Senator as I've said before, that kind of question would expose you and me to being hung for treason, so I think you'll agree that we'll both be better off when I tell you we are doing everything to ensure the recovery and we say nothing but ponies on the horizon. Mr. Schumer would you like to add some blathering non-sense to what I've just said?"
Isn't absinthe illegal. Not that that would stop anyone.
Bunning: So there are banks that are too big to fail.
Bernanke: Absolutely.
Good thing that's clear now. Time for the bull market to resume.
Schumer: "Shouldn't people fear small banks more than big banks? Shouldn't they withdraw their money from their local credit union and deposit with, say, Citigroup?"
Does NBER also declare depressions?
Absinthe.
"Green Dragon".
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:08 am | #
Kool-ade. Jim Jones flavor.
Imagine being Bernanke.
He could have not gone Faustian, kept his day job, and get quoted in some jersey newspaper right about now, because after all, he is the expert on the Great Depression.
But, no.
Is Bernanke's tie some kind of Rorschach test?
Bunning a bit of crank, but his questioning with the economy matters are as good as his fastball was.
Now would be the time for Russia to make its move. I don't think anyone would stop 'em...
Zombie_Investor | 02.24.09 - 11:07 am | #
they have a new weapon - the beta tests were successful - satellites colliding - nuclear subs colliding -
Nemo, that was a spoof, a joke, right?
Right?
absinthe can be bought online all day long...some good bottkles too..
Dock Ellis was always my baseball hero.
Nemo writes:
Schumer: "Shouldn't people fear small banks more than big banks? Shouldn't they withdraw their money from their local credit union and deposit with, say, Citigroup?"
WTF- Schumer is D from NYCiti?
--
David Rosenberg; 02/24/09:
Bottom [for S&P 500] will likely be in 550-650 range -- As an aside, we have penned in $46 for operating EPS for this year, so on our estimates the market is basically operating with a 16x multiple. Call us when we get down to a classic recession trough multiple of 12x we are at $54 for 2010E and at one point we will start to discount next years earnings stream which, on
our estimates, means the bottom will likely be in a 550-650 range.
I agree as long as the horizon is 6-9 months. My leveraged speculative account is positioned as follows in terms of gains/losses in 13 weeks from yesterdays close:
SPX (at the end of 13 weeks) Gain/Loss in round numbers
645 +05%
695 +45%
745 +60%
845 +70%
945 +35%
995 +15%
Basically, for the next 3 months I am positioned for 640-1020 range with very good returns in 700-925 range.
Jas
lawyerliz(Excellent) writes:
Isn't absinthe illegal. Not that that would stop anyone.
It got hip and did a brisk contraband trade lately. Mostly snob / hipster transgression appeal, it's kind of a joke for its era.
No, that had to be a joke.
Isn't absinthe illegal
lawyerliz | 02.24.09 - 11:09 am | #
Not any more, though I have no idea why anyone would want to drink it.
Greenspan was correct for a lot longer then one might have expected.
MS | 02.24.09 - 11:04 am | #
All a matter of perspective. Fleck carefully documents how Greenspan's interpretation of economic data was almost always wrong. Times were good and Alan explained why, but nobody cared that the latter had nothing to do with the former.
What will Turbo Tax Tim say?
Ahhhhh....just like 2008 was the year of "containment". I call bullshit and call a spade a spade...that guy is a hack.
Dock Ellis was always my baseball hero.
Timothy Leary of Geithner | 02.24.09 - 11:12 am | #
He did throw that no-hitter on acid, eh?
Schumer: "wasn't there a lot of fraud going on, and there wasn't anything you could do about it was there."
Bernie: "I think that's right."
lawyerliz and DOW36000 --
Nemo, that was a spoof, a joke, right?
Right?
Yes yes, it was a joke. I'm not the world's biggest fan of Chuck Schumer.
"If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wed all have a merry Christmas. Don Meredith
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
Kool-ade. Jim Jones flavor.
No thanks, I'd like to survive the afternoon nip.
Citi moved to South Dakota in 1979. New York regulated them too much.
So Michael Phelps gets the maim-stream-media once-over because he smokes the herb, and he loses valuable endorsements, which they make sure to emphasize, but lost in translation:
A stoner wins 8 Olympic Gold Medals.
Another genius stoner like Sagan, how cool is that?
Bernanke has been wrong consistently. I was about to say what private company would tolerate such failure but...
Bernanke is counting on "Christmas in July"
So I hate South Dakota as much as you hate Wall Street.
Recovery will come on 10/05/10 at 2PM in a flash, that was easy.
This man really believes Jas, he thinks we are dopes.
Bernanke is counting on "Christmas in July"
\t ObamaNation | 02.24.09 - 11:16 am | #
Emergency Christmas. What did you get me?
Emergency Christmas ....
Schumer: "wasn't there a lot of fraud going on, and there wasn't anything you could do about it was there."
Bernie: "I think that's right. When they asked for 0 capital reserves, we thought that was a BIG plus, no chance for gaming the system there. When they showed us the foxes they were going to use to guard the hen house, and explained that their training models showed that some foxes could be trained to not eat chickens, we thought this was a great idea."
Nostrovia,
doof: "can you tell us about the stress test"
bernie: "the outcome will not be pass or fail, it will be all pass. this should boost confidence."
The I.V. League has sure come through for this country.
only 21 months to recovery>?
tell it to the discouraged workers, the underwater homeowners, the people who will never afford cash price medicine, the homeless.
retard
The I.V. League has sure come through for this country.
That's our betters you're talking about, be careful young man! They're our betters because...ok, let me get back to you on that.
So Ben basically just said they will stress test banks and then give banks more money without having to go to Congress for any kind of spending approval and that is what has been decided? Great.
New Thread: House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income ( 2 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements.
.
.
.
.
Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
--Your glass-is-half-full-but-its-falling-off-the-table bot.
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
It is decidedly so
the ivy league is the second greatest short behind professional sports (and the dollar)
Newman (Hello Jerry.....) writes:
What will Turbo Tax Tim say?
Hopefully nothing while BB calms market this morning...
Yes yes, it was a joke. I'm not the world's biggest fan of Chuck Schumer.
Nemo
Too easy to believe. I'm sure he'll be there at the "Too Big To Fail" presser they'll have for Citi in the future.
1 currency almost [yogi],
Granted they are Inc'd in SD, most of their offices are in NY.
Intravenous Ben, from the I.V. League
We absolutely believe that our private banking system is best off being in private hands and we are trying our best to keep it that way, said one senior administration official."
"They drop it, we pick it up. They throw it down from the high chair, we pick it up and give it back to them. They pound it on the table and break it, we fix it and give it back to them. They take it apart and throw the pieces out the window, we go get the pieces, put it back together, and give it back to them."
"Now they've taken it apart, put the pieces in the toilet, crapped in it, barfed in it, and want more help."
"We are considering what the government should do next. We are thinking it's time to ask the taxpayers to come in and get deeply and personally involved at this point."
The administration official requested anonymity, on the grounds that nobody in the current administration knew he was still on the payroll from last year, and he needs the money.
Gads, I wish Tanta were still here. It becomes obvious that many commenters are acting as bad as the "journalists" she used to condemn. As only a couple of people noted, he did not say it WILL be better in 2010. He said it MIGHT be better, IF certain things are done and happen. He also said (paraphrasing) that as things stand right now the economy is more likely to get worse than it is to get better.
Condemn Bernanke if you will (he's certainly earned more than a bit), but by Dog do so for what he says, not for the words you put in his mouth. Not if you wish to be considered credible, anyway.
Timothy Leary of Geithner(Unrated)
Another genius stoner like Sagan, how cool is that?
Stoner economists of the world, ummm, whatever I was gonna say.
Wow. From Time magazine:
"Management at AIG has calculated exactly how much money the Treasury and Fed will have access to after all of the TARP, financial stimulus, and mortgage bailout projects have been funded. The insurance company then plans to ask for whatever is left to fund its deficits so that it can stay in business, effectively making the federal government insolvent."
AIG's Distress: Are There Enough Fingers for This Dike? - TIME
"... private capital will be leveraged with public funds to purchase legacy assets from financial institutions."
i.e. private cronies (GS) will be showered with taxpayer money to purchase bad assets.
--
"This man really believes Jas, he thinks we are dopes."
AP'Shadow,
He knows for a fact that born-and-bred Americans ARE dopes, or at the very least they are politically impotent to be able to do anything. More importantly, his masters, Financial Nazis of America, know this fact. Hell, they were responsible for BREEDING Americans into dopes.
Propaganda Machine operated by the Financial Nazis has ruled over Americans for a very long time now. Born-and-bred American dopes ARE in denial.
Jas
The I.V. League has sure come through for this country.
Ivy is evasive, underneath the leaves ugliness builds up, its dirty, snail slime glistens and a tangle or evil roots makes it hard to remove
Rob Dawg writes:
Bernanke is counting on "Christmas in July"
ObamaNation | 02.24.09 - 11:16 am | #
Emergency Christmas. What did you get me?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:17 am | #
You get AIG!
Fair Economist, i've been pondering on what appears to be quite a large decrease in Demand Deposits, showing up in the M1 Money Multiplier -
St. Louis Fed: Series: MULT, M1 Money Multiplier
St. Louis Fed: FRED Graph
any thoughts?
Sorry, I meant charted in SD
Greenspend, don't know if you have this, was gonna post this in response to you last bringing up the m1 pop.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Maybe this is useful for some real fundamentals for you?
I short this Bernanake fool.
--
What part of Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC), a term that I coined in 2003, don't people here understand?
I forecasted in 2003 that Financial Nazis of America were constructing Debt Concentration Camps for 30,000,000 American households. The dopes entered the camps willingly! I also told people in 1998 that Corporate Crooks of America had converted the so-called stock market into the Scam Market.
The rest, as they say, is history.
Jas
Dean Baker on the Citi bailout:
Beat the Press Archive | The American Prospect
Maybe this is useful for some real fundamentals for you?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:28 am | #
nice! no i didn't have this, very handy. thanks comrade!
it one of those strange ironies, our 240' x 70' barge sunk this month (before we took ownership!). we are acquiring smaller one, from one of two sources. they are cheap now that metal scrap and trade has plummeted. i bet railcars are too...
for our big project coming up -
Welcome to Waterpod™ Project
It's amazing, but Jas apparently can get himself off, merely by patting himself on the back.
It's not your usual kind of circle jerk, but it works for him.
Where's Nemo to scare off Jas again?
I was just at a White House conference listening to a lot of people talking about cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits for retirees. How can the same government that hands tens of billions of dollars to Citi's shareholders and top executives cut key benefits for the retirees? Why aren't the news reports calling attention to this massive give away to some of the nation's richest people?
--Dean Baker
The same f'ers that are gonna let Citi covert the taxpayers preferred crap pile into just common crap pile. Jas, take it from here....
Take your Holocaust language elsewhere, dope king.
serf alan, I think the multiplier change is because the banks are now depositing reserves with the Fed for the interest (which previously would have gone to money market accounts). The M0 measurement is totally ****ed as a result of this, and so is M1 multiplier (= M1/M0). Is there something else going on I haven't thought about?
Thank you, Jas, for your forthright and conscientious analysis. As you know, dopes do not have the intellect to realize they are dopes. They are conditioned to think they are smart and special, when really they are morons and dogshit.
When your sons have been gassed to death, feel free to post what you like.
Hey, Sebastian? You're off a bit.
If I'm right, you're looking at line 29, real personal disposal income. Instead you need to set up a spreadsheet.
(Line 22 - line 14) * (line 29 / line 22)
That gives you PDI - current transfers, multiplied by the adjustment factor of real PDI vs actual PDI.
Now September was indeed the low point, but it hasn't been climbing every month. In fact, December's RPDI(-T) is down from November's. I also suspect that we'll see another decline in January.
You're right, it's one tool the NBER uses. But the NBER says that unemployment is just as important, and implies that both need to be positive (regardless of other factors) for a bottom to be considered. As I noted way back when, the actual tendency is to wait till almost all the applicable factors are positive as almost every single factor runs counter-trend at some point - up and down cycle.
FE, that might be it with that size of volume about matching. something doesn't feel right though, the timing of the change, for example.
it must be wiggling of the TARP funds somehow, for their profit or caution or regulatory requirement. i just can't find any correlation externally yet.
When your sons have been gassed to death, feel free to post what you like.
1 currency almost [yogi] | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:39 am | #
How about murdered by the israeli army?
Bernanke is counting on "Christmas in July"
ObamaNation | 02.24.09 - 11:16 am | #
Emergency Christmas. What did you get me?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:17 am | #
You get AIG!
ObamaNation | 02.24.09 - 11:25 am | #
I must have been a very bad dawg. Sniff, I was hoping for Meridith in my stocking,... well, Meridith in her stockings actually.
How about murdered by Hamas terrorists?
Bernanke: Final cost to taxpayer of bank rescue plan unclear
Jas is a friend of mine and I see dopes daily in my job, it's those that ask for advise but never heed it.
Kirk Spencer said: "Hey, Sebastian? You're off a bit.
If I'm right, you're looking at line 29, real personal disposal income. Instead you need to set up a spreadsheet..."
Thank-you for immediately accusing me of being wrong, even though you're calculating a different number than I am.
And for assuming that I was just shooting from the hip and didn't have it all in a spreadsheet.
All I did was measure real income after transfers the same was as the NBER does.
Thank-you for your apology.
Sebastia
(CBC) . . . A B.C. Supreme Court justice ruled Craig Fraser's condo could be liquidated â along with the rest of the three-unit building â after the two other owner-investors couldn't or wouldn't pay the repair bills for a leaky roof.
"It came down to two [owners] against one," Fraser said. "So, now I'm faced with a tough economy, being self-employed and having to move and rent and start over."
An investor was allowed to purchase the entire building at 1029 West 7th Avenue for the land value, approximately $1 million, following a July 23, 2008 court decision by Justice Victor Curtis. By contrast, the court estimated the building would have been worth about $2 million fully repaired.
. . .
Mary Buchanan, a realtor who lives in California, and Maurice Duteau, a mechanical engineer who lives in China, ultimately said they couldn't cover their share of the cost, while Fraser said he would.
"They just decided that they didn't want to repair it, and managed to convince the courts," Fraser said.
As foreign investors, Fraser pointed out, the other two owners are able to write off losses against their taxes, while he has simply lost his primary residence.
Jas is a friend of mine
AP'Shadow | 02.24.09 - 11:50 am | #
Many Nazis are very nice, and friendly. Jas is just a dopey dope.
How about murdered by Hamas terrorists?
1 currency almost [yogi] | Homepage | 02.24.09 - 11:47 am | #
Sure, that would count. How many of them are there? One, maybe?
While Wallstreet was robbing us blind most had Christmas year around with babbles from China being transported in foreign cars run by foreign energy on foreign owned highways.
It can't be fixed right now, only time as in years, will bring the USA back to what ever the next bubble will be. The financial bubble has busted.
gack... I keep missing the boat
What is really funny is how this board would become as quiet as a morgue if the start of a recovery actually happened.
sportsfan | 02.24.09 - 10:41 am | #
Yes , well there are many old time sayings; ex: "quiet as a morgue"
Here's one:
"IF pigs had wings they could fly...."
How about this:
The higher you - the harder you fall..."
See if you can finish this one:
"A few bad apples.....
My personal favorite has always been:
"Don't eat anyone's meatloaf but your mom's"
It would be nice and fuzzy if people at war only killed the same number that their enemies killed.
It would be nice if every group that killed a few hundred people could be easily compared to a group that systematically killed millions.
You wouldn't have to think hard in this relative world.
Sebastian, read the rest of my statement. I calculate real after transfers and show it's NOT been in consistent recovery. There was a reversal, but it's begun a decline again.
Yeah, I should have phrased the opening better, as in "I get different numbers, and so I think you're wrong." Not "I know what numbers you're using and you're wrong." I still, however, think you're wrong, and demonstrate why.
Back in 2007, Sebastian predicted recession in 2010. He may be right.
Msg to all losers: leave Jas Jain alone. If you disagree with him then you are probably one of the fools who spent too much on a house and looking for handouts.
Don't own a house, never got a handout. I don't disagree with his criticism of the US. He says the same thing over and over.
He's just an asshole.
When Bush appointed Bernake into office I thought he was a real Libertarian. But he's a psuedo-Libertarian.
Bernake why aren't you calling for more tax cuts ant deregulation to spur the economy?
I'm disgusted.
When the Financial Nazis came for the mouthbreathers,
I remained silent;
I was not a mouthbreather.
When they locked up the credit card debtors,
I remained silent;
I had never maxed out my credit-card.
When they started with the mass-foreclosures,
I did not speak out;
I did not have a mortgage.
When they came for the lower middle-class,
I remained silent;
I was upper middle-class.
When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.
-
Ahh, the glory of Ben Bernanke's biconditional.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
\tIsn't absinthe illegal. Not that that would stop anyone.
no it isn't. just had a glass after a late afternoon swim...
the key ingredient is wormwood. most of the legal absinthe in the world today uses what's called a tincture or essence.
this French version was as close as you can get... unless you go to Corsica where it's as plentiful as moonshine in Georgia and uses the real
wormwood (no 3.2 absinthe there)
Coming back from the Dr. a short while ago, had the testimony on Sat Radio. Wife is riding along real quiet like, an I have to add, my wife is far from the brightest tack in the world, was born in the central Philippines in the middle of WWII, and has about a 6th grade education. She's got good sense, and pretty damn frugal. Anyway, we're turning down the home stretch and she looks at me, and just said "We're screwed aren't we?" I didn't think she was even listening.
2010? Once the credit vapors have subsided, how long will it take to re-tool a functional economy--10 or 20 years?
BB, if 2010 doesn't recover, may we exile your butt? Antarctica should be warming up quite nicely for you.
bluefisher writes:
Coming back from the Dr. a short while ago, had the testimony on Sat Radio. Wife is riding along real quiet like, an I have to add, my wife is far from the brightest tack in the world, was born in the central Philippines in the middle of WWII, and has about a 6th grade education. She's got good sense, and pretty damn frugal. Anyway, we're turning down the home stretch and she looks at me, and just said "We're screwed aren't we?" I didn't think she was even listening.
bluefisher | 02.24.09 - 2:04 pm | #
Dosen't take a genius to figure that one out. We are NO UNIQUE SNOWFLAKE....Somalia, Russia, France, Iceland....Whatever the Gov't want's it gets...until "We The People"...put a stop to it. Force is necessary when the powers that be ignore the people.
If...if...if.
If your aunt had balls...
Kirk Spencer said: "Sebastian, read the rest of my statement. I calculate real after transfers and show it's NOT been in consistent recovery. There was a reversal, but it's begun a decline again...."
Congratulations on proving that if I calculate something in one way (the way the NBER does) and you calculate it your way, the numbers are different.
Take it up with the NBER, since they're obviously doing it wrong, too.
Sebastia
Apparently absinthe legal in US again?
Lucid Absinthe: Home
The part I would have put in bold type is the part that says IF AND ONLY IF. Also the part that says more downside than upside risk.
Geithner deservedly gets a ton of criticism, however he is only a "Puppet", both Volckner and Summers have their hand so far up his ass, you can see their fingers when Tim speaks.
Two Hundred and Twenty Fourth!!