I am going to have a hell of a time getting work done today. I try to read CR comments between tedious government documents tasks, my personal carrot & stick. But with so much going on, I tend to have much more carrot than stick. I need help.
R2000 has given back almost all gains from yesterday already today.
R2000 down 20%+ YTD.
I watch Europe for confirmation of big moves in the U.S. Basically, yesterday's big rally here just passed Europe by. Most major European indices were flat yesterday and down today.
Europe seems to be caving. I don't know how the S&P holds up when DAX, CAC and FTSE are caving.
Ask Jim the Realtor. He'll confirm. He has a huge backlog of Countrywide REOs that he has permission to list on the MLS.
Rob Dawg
I'm watching the Wamu hidden inventory creep onto the market where I want to buy.
Until we see moderate inventory... prices will drop. So far all the policies are just going to drag this out.
I'm still impressed with the current sales rate. I thought the SAAR would be at ~4mill by now.
TJ,
I commented on SAG end of last thread. Short reprise: Studios hold all of the cards in 2009.
By consistently making the point that 45% of sales were distressed, I can only surmise that you are implying a different type of buyer is involved. If a person wants to buy a house and finds an REO the best deal, that is a housing transaction and I don't see what difference it makes. So, you must believe that a large percentage of REO sales are not to buyers who would otherwise be in the market. Is there any proof of this?
Foreclosure sales will probably decline in the lower price ranges due to exhaustion of the supply of underwater homedebtors in that price range. It seems that the mid- to high-priced ranges will see foreclosures increase this year. The prices in this range have only decreased in a mark-to-market sense. Not much is actually trading (as is indicated in your posts). I am not sure much can trade at market prices on the high-end unless it is lender mediated. There may be relatively more units in the lower price ranges, so the net effect may be negative.
It also seems that the severity of the recession is deep enough that companies are looking to cut high paying jobs to reduce expenses faster. I think you noted this in your post on confidence yesterday.
Hey CR or Rob Dawy, how about used car sales. We never hear anything about those. We know the new car market is in the toilet, but what about used cars.
Rob Dawy talked about buying a returned leased Honda a few days ago. What is a three year old leased Accord worth these days?
"It also seems that the severity of the recession is deep enough that companies are looking to cut high paying jobs to reduce expenses faster.
MinniRenter | 02.25.09 - 11:13 am | #"
I can make it real simple...we are screwed. 1 Quadrillion in derivatives, forget notional, that will blow sky high at some point, is the canary in a coalmine that they will not discuss.
Agreed on the shadow inventory keeping the stats elevated, but who is buying these houses?
"If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range), and that might take some time." - CR
I still haven't seen prices move much in Texas but it's beginning to happen. It was only this month that I saw a Nov. 2008 sold at $282,445 listed at $189.500. This is a gentrified neighborhood, near the university of Texas. Mix of white and blue collared workers, from programmers to craftsmen to lawyers. There are a few other fixer-uppers that haven't taken the fall yet. Their prices are around $200K, but were selling under $130,000 five years ago.
"By consistently making the point that 45% of sales were distressed, I can only surmise that you are implying a different type of buyer is involved."
These foreclosure sales in many cities are going to people who may or may not be "catching a falling knife" as they either intend to flip for profit or rent for profit, either of which may or may not work out well for them.
There are many who just don't get how to successfully make money in real estate, and many don't get that the housing bubble won't be back soon.
"I can make it real simple...we are screwed. 1 Quadrillion in derivatives, forget notional, that will blow sky high at some point, is the canary in a coalmine that they will not discuss."
Very funny. Seriously, it's a Honda.
Wonder what they are worth today. Is Kelley Blue Book a good guide? I want to buy one and don't have any idea what the used car market is like. Are things as bad in the used car market as in new?
Lots of brain power here, and hoping that someone might know. I'm in the Seattle market.
you know the graph that i find helpful is months of inventory spilt into home price 100-200 -200-300-400, 500+ and it speaks volmues where the years of inventory come into play, then , based on MSA , put in the lower corner the median income and see where the 2-3X's equals and look at the graph you will see that the months inventory, greater inventory are on the high priced homes based on that MSA median income... the median home price should in theory be 2-3 x's median income but all these MSA's still have the majority of inventory on the high side....4+ x's...
Rob Dawg talked about buying a returned leased Honda a few days ago. What is a three year old leased Accord worth these days? \t Speed Racer | 02.25.09 - 11:15 am | #
I'm looking at the Honda Pilot or BMW X3. '06 certified models are sitting on lots at ~60% of '09 new equivalents. The ones that are selling are going for 50% off plus. So much for the vaunted resale value of superior manufacturers. The "smaller" [cheaper, more efficient, volume] models are still doing great wrt resale for now. The danger is if the mfgs have a blowout sale. Used prices are very dependent upon new prices. That's a deflationary airpocket to watch for.
In the best of times, Lincoln Nebraska was in no position to spend $3 million on an environmentally friendly clubhouse for a municipal golf course. But cometh the worst of times, and the golfers suddenly deserve not just a clubhouse, but one that is pals with nature.
"except for women, slaves and various lower class types ...
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:21 am | #"
Good point. Every wonderful stone building of history was built with slave labor and 99.99+ percent of human history had slaves. Sobering thought as we contemplate the future.
To some minds, the ultimate worth of America is the slave labor of its population.
banks are still not discounting REOs to attractive levels, and then you have property taxes only going up specially for the young, as the old will vote for prop 13 type of shifts of the tax burden away from them.
who the hell is buying? buyers are being paid for staying on the sidelines right now.
New cars are being discounted like mad to get them off the lot ... so i don't imagine people will pay much for used cars, when they can pay a little bit more for new.
--
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda.
Let me repeat: Until Financial Nazis are hunted down and the culture that breeds them is exterminated there is no reason for hope for a better future for America. Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution, e.g., the Civil War.
mmckinl writes:
Don't bet on it. Gold IS money.
TCA
~~~~
Try paying your bills with it ...
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:16 am | #
Late last year, I paid 2 month's rent in gold coins. Landlord got a good deal because gold was very near its low for the year at the time of payment. Plus we saved a few bucks on combined shipping.
Admittedly, this probably doesn't work if the payee isn't a personal friend...
Thanks Rob. I leased an Accord back in 06, no need to be flamed by anyone, that's the only debt I have. With the way things are now I was thinking of keeping it instead of trading in for a new one and was wondering if I should try to lowball Honda. The residual is something like $17K.
Should I just let them take it back?
Low ball them and see if they bite?
Lease a new care?
Or just turn the Accord in and drive my Chevy T10, it only has 44K miles on it?
jas. riiiiiiiight. you have it all figured out. hunting down entire cultures, exterminating them. that makes total sense. jas rhymes with ass. woo hooo.
Jas, over America? The EU dumbshits geared up far more than our banks, and they are swirling the bowl as we speak. We will take the hit, but yours will be far worse. Go ask anyone from Iceland.
Anyone else short airline stocks? What a day. ALK tore right through my covered put strike price. I see casino stocks down heavily too. People finally starting to come around to the realization that travel and leisure are going to take major hits?
"Berks County transportation planners Tuesday pushed through a number of projects to improve roads, bridges and bus services that will be funded with $30 million from the federal economic stimulus plan.
Officials anticipate the work, some of which could begin in two weeks, will bring several hundred jobs to Berks."
--
A friend who inherited a flat in Mumbai, India, could have sold for USD 1.5M a year ago. Now he has an offer for USD 1.2M and asked for my advice. I told him to accept and run and not to stumble while running.
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda.
~~~~
Finally an up beat post from Jas ...
And the good news ...
"Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution "
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda."
With a beard like that guy has, how can you trust him?
New cars are being discounted like mad to get them off the lot ... so i don't imagine people will pay much for used cars, when they can pay a little bit more for new.
Maybe used car can get financing from internal "Buy here pay here" financing or second line local credit sharks. not many cash buyers for cars either.
The danger is if the mfgs have a blowout sale. Used prices are very dependent upon new prices. That's a deflationary airpocket to watch for.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:23 am | #
Dawg,
That's the danger or opportunity, depending on how you look at it.
I am helping my GF/partner shop for a car in Toronto and will be waiving cash lowball offers on used cars.
That's what I'd do back home in SoCal and think the market is riper there to be taken by cash.
Riper, but not yet composted down to its best values.
MP told a great story almost a year ago about Son of MP buying some machinery for cash. When Son of MP paused to take a drink of soda the price came down.
The best bargaining ploy is to walk out the door and see if they call you back with a lower price. With cars there are so many dealers and private sellers that this is always worth a try. You can always go someplace else after you've tried this tactic a few times to help discover a likely low price. . . or you can keep trying it until you stumble on the real fire sale.
Just get the car checked by your own mechanic before buying.... (two generations of family owned repair shop knowledge speaking, plus personal bazaar bargaining experience)
"Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution "
You are gonna make him cry if you keep this up. I reminded whoever that we saved their stinking asses twice in 100 years but no retort because whoever knows he/she would be goose stepping otherwise. Your welcome EU!
Last November in our suburban Boston neighborhood, my wife called the cops after seeing 2 people break into a REO house. It turns out they were hired by the bank to winterize the place. There are no for sale signs and it's not listed on realtor.com...so far.
Thanks everyone for the info, more would be appreciated though.
Forgot to say that my T10 is a 96 with only 44K miles on it.
I really like the Accord though and would like to keep it. It has leather seats, XM radio, and all that shit. I've only put about 24K miles on it in three years. But if I'm better off turning it in I might. Does anyone know if Honda Finance will negotiate on these things. I don't want to be taken for a sap!
Better them that take the hit than me. At leat that's how I feel.
Probably need something with the "head to the hills, drive on the rough shoulder type vehicle just in case...one that will push the Priuses out of the way when the SHTF...
What is a Speed Racer to do? Speed Racer | 02.25.09 - 11:29 am | #
Go to Kelly Blur Book and and offer halfway between your residual and the calculated KBB trade in value. If they don't bite but seem close, offer more but get them to throw in the next major scheduled service. That's worth a grand to you but their marginal cost is at most a few hundred. Win-win.
Every time my firefox crashes, I lose my ratings on posters. Does anybody know a way to save the ratings, so I don't have to select them over and over and over?
I sincerely hope the Financial Nazis are not true Nazis who would hunt down Jas's sons and perform medical experiments with no anesthesia on his grandchildren. But if he is to be believed then they really should flee now to India.
--
Violence Has Been THE FOUNDATION of the Amerikan Kultur and Its Success
From day one!
Evildoer Bernanke told the Congress that if you take full and proper care of the existing bankers and financiers then and only then the economy can recover.
This crisis WILL end in internal violence and only and with violence. Financial Nazis have destroyed the foundations of the economic success -- contracts and taxpayers' property rights.
Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit
Japan has been hit by a double-whammy: the global fall in trade, made worse by its (formerly) rising yen.
While deteriorating conditions in China generally get more media attention, the falloff in Japan is stunning and serious. Japan has spent more than a decade stagnant, but the overall growth figures mask the fact that the domestic economy contracted, while the export sector exhibited good growth.
The export plunge (December's results horrid too, a 35% fall in exports), means that Japan's only engine of growth has gone into stall. China, by contrast, is not as dependent of trade for its overall performance as is popularly believed (commercial real estate and infrastructure spending have also been important sources, although CRE has taken a dive too). Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit « naked capitalism
I'm booting back and forth between errands, kids, all the daily housestuff and CR.
truly, I think that I know more than 99% of the populace on this stuff adn then I sit back and learn something new.
Had to just laugh.
Started this note right when BB came back from recess to Frank's hearing w/DJIA down 117. Thought, well, that's going to drop further and just saw that now down 128.
Plus BO's now speaking, so I anticipate a circuit breaker any minute.
Jas, you will do what you must just like the rest of us if need be. You my friend are just too stupid to realize it yet, but you will before this is over.
Does anybody know anything about Goldman Sach's net exposure to CDS and/or AIG? For example, what percentage of the $60B in AIG losses were a result of CDS bets with Goldman as the counterparty? Mish was mentioning that CDS bets have been helping GS, but I haven't read anywhere what the net impact is.
It does seem that Goldman rallies with news of each additional loss out of AIG...
Recently I've heard a number of stories about lenders holding REOs off the market, but I can't confirm this. - CR
Ask Jim the Realtor. He'll confirm. He has a huge backlog of Countrywide REOs that he has permission to list on the MLS. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:04 am | #
I talked to a Realtor in St Paul who does nothing but REO - he told me the banks have TONS of REO currently held off the market - he sees their teaser lists - they can't process it fast enough - don't have the bodies. Plus every property has to pass 'code' prior to selling even if offered as is. It becomes a huge Catch 22 - you can pay for the house but it doesn't clear title until it passes code. Once the bank has the cash they have no incentive to fix to code & the 'new-not-yet-really-owner' can't authorize or 'permit' the fix up. Some of these houses have negative value as a result. Significantly negative. If you were a bank would you hurry to put properties like this on the market until this regulatory hassle is cleared up? Star Trib ran an article on it last week & the realtor I talked to confirmed.
This should make Dawg feel good that there are places as screwed up or worse than California.
attacking India, or Indians in America, would some how lessen their problems
You're right, Jas. Attacking India is not the solution. The true solution is for the CIA to trick China into attacking India. Two stones with one bird and no official U.S. involvement.
.
As a professional data monkey, I know from experience that most data represent only a fraction of the underlying reality....on top of the fact that usually a significant chunk of the data that you do have is usually 10-20% fudge.
The only thing to draw from most analysis is the overall trends. Which itself is mostly at best, backward looking and obvious to non-data monkeys.
More important questions of how we got to where we are, and the next logical question of how do we get out of it....are what we should be focusing on.
I think we all generally agree on how we got here.
As far as how we are going to get out...well when the old road runs you into the mud, you have to TURN...not keep spinning your wheels forward.
I think there is a direct correlation between the number of times gold is mentioned in a thread and the rapidity with which said thread deteriorates to Mad Max/survivalist posts.
I also posit that the frequency of gold and MM/S posts is increasing with every thread.
Now, I must disclose that this is simply anecdotal observation (I haven't actually counted or measured ratios, etc.) and I'm not a habitual CR poster.
However, it seems there is a pattern at hand that suggests one should buy gold and/or stock in gun companies.
True, but Financial Nazis are untouchables! You are a brown-shirt of Financial Nazis and you are a pathetic twit. You would have been rejected by German Nazis for being unfit to serve.
If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range), and that might take some time.
This seems to be a very narrow view. The situation with which we are confronted is much more complex than supply and demand. Sure, supply may be reduced, but demand may not recover at the same pace, or ever. Also, home purchases, and ultimately prices, are dependent upon credit, easy, or otherwise, and the halcion days of easy credit are behind us. I disagree with your narrow supply/demand interpretation for houses and for automobiles. It's just not that simple anymore, if it ever was.
"Not my way, and I have 150 biker friends who feel the same way.........so bring it!...my mini brigade is ready to take on the New World Order."
You are so incredibly misguided, my parent's lived through the soviet occupation of my country....were in college when the tanks rolled into the streets.
It's the tough guys like you that will feel it the worst...your whole sense of self is tied up in your sad little male dominated chauvinistic tirades...
Excuse me ex-pat Russian but your govt. was in bed with the Nazis before they f***ed you over. We are not as stupid! Then again, we didn't kill millions of Ukranians by starvation either.
This should make Dawg feel good that there are places as screwed up or worse than California. dryfly | 02.25.09 - 11:52 am | #
Actually, I was secretly hoping that California was a screwed up as it gets. Excepting D.C. of course.
Back to inventory. A local new development, Riverpark in Oxnard, has a few listings on the MLS. Visit their sles office and you discover there are a half dozen or more near identical units also available. More hidden inventory.
This seems to be a very narrow view. The situation with which we are confronted is much more complex than supply and demand. Sure, supply may be reduced, but demand may not recover at the same pace, or ever. Also, home purchases, and ultimately prices, are dependent upon credit, easy, or otherwise, and the halcion days of easy credit are behind us. I disagree with your narrow supply/demand interpretation for houses and for automobiles. It's just not that simple anymore, if it ever was.
Morroco: I'm not sure I understand your point.
CR wasn't talking about supply or demand in a vacuum, he was talking about INVENTORY.
if inventory is rising consistently, then in general it means that supply is consistently outpacing demand. if inventory is dropping, then it means that demand is catching up to supply...
inventory is a multivariable data point.
thus, inventory changing does mean by definition that the supply/demand relationship has changed.
of course there are other permutations and complications... but I'd say that inventory is a pretty good marker of things.
You never have anything meaningful to say. Why don't you stick something down your mouth rather than constantly attacking me, you pathetic dwib. You are unfit.
Seriously, my kid could make a science fair project out of this.
Does the market react negatively when certain econo-political figures speak on CNBC?
FWIW, he took an honorable mention in yesterday's Science Fair. Not bad for a weekend project pulled together when the school screwed him on the previous project.
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements. . . . . Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
Anyone thinking they can outgun our military is crazy, and it won't be the military doing you harm. That my friend will come from your fellow neighbors. Katrina ring a bell?
Hmmm... just heard Geithner speak-- apparently, they're gonna let homebuyers this year take the $8000 homebuyers tax credit, in 2008. So if I understood him right, if you buy a house this year, in 2009, he's saying you can file your taxes for 2008, and then amend that return to get your credit refunded back to you in this year, 2009.
Say what you want I am right about one thing most Americans are cowards, so the coming round up should be uneventful and all quite like....good luck to you...me I am going down fighting I live fine, I don't fine, but at least I died trying, the rest of you lemmings enjoy your servitude.
FWIW, he took an honorable mention in yesterday's Science Fair. Not bad for a weekend project pulled together when the school screwed him on the previous project. homedad43 | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:59 am | #
What was his project?
When I was 10-12 I built a working scale model sewage treatment plant as a science fair project - my parents were very concerned. Later they weren't too surprised when I became a chemical engineer w/ emphasis in bio-processing & worked in ag processing plants. Big vats full of stinky bubbly shit still turns me on.
The true solution is for the CIA to trick China into attacking India. Two stones with one bird and no official U.S. involvement.
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:52 am | #
--
America was built by people, especially the leaders, with warrior and Christian ethics, or morality, and is being destroyed by immoral and legalistic Financial Nazis who now have the total control of the society. This is an observable fact.
Focusing on the root causes of Americas problems, including the housing problems!,
1 currency almost [yogi] writes:
...Jas your Nazi loving days are over. We will exterminate your family. Go back to India before it's too late...
1 currency almost [yogi], I am starting to doubt that Jas actually is Indian !
As you may have noticed I repeadetly asked him a question any Indian easily could answer.
The question is :
"aadmi=man is to larka=boy as aurat=woman is to ?????=girl"
The number of questionmarks deonotes the number of letters of the word looked for.
Either way. It's possible all his "defenders" are himself. "Michael" is probably real, but so stupid as to be easily ignored. Jas is a sick, dangerous person wherever he's from.
Is Kelley Blue Book a good guide? I want to buy one and don't have any idea what the used car market is like. Are things as bad in the used car market as in new?
Speed Racer,
Black Book prices are probably the most reliable. Broker-Dealers have access to it.
I recently (January) purchased a Z4m on eBay - 34% below Black Book, 42% below KBB.
1 currency almost [yogi], I have this riddle/question (and a few in spare) picked up on another board where an real Indian (born, was then living in the US) "protected" some of his posts (which I am not going to describe here, hihi) .
So, the point is that this ridle is from an genuine Indian and I thoght that may be a good test to see whether he is really an Indian (or the real Jas ?).
how'd your mom feel about you sh***** in her tupperware? In Poor Taste | 02.25.09 - 12:09 pm | #
I used old plastic storage bins that I glued baffles in to separate solids & 'floaters'. Then ran it through a 'sand filter' I built.
She didn't let me use 'real shit' as she was a public health nurse - I had to 'simulate it' so I did - in her blender [took a bunch of old lettuce and liquefied it... added some sand for solids & a little veggie oil for 'floaters'... and let it sit for a couple weeks in a warm place. Looked and smelled pretty much like the real deal.
I didn't win - the judges thought it was disgusting. Something like a baking soda volcano won.
The next year I tried to build a 'cloud chamber' like they use to 'catch' neutrinos - 100% serious - required a big glass vessel, dry ice and some kind of organic solvent. I don't know what possessed me to do that one. Again the judges just sighed.
And 'yes' I was a little bit like Calvin in Calvin & Hobbs.
This congresscritter - didn't catch his name - just hit the nail right on the head in a question he posed to Bernanke. He said something like "Nationalization is a codeword for bailing out the bondholders." Our policy really needs to be shaped by that understanding.
Looks like the NAR is understating the severity of the drop in home sales (surprise, surprise), since they report raw units, as opposed to sales as a % of outstanding housing stock. January Existing-Home Sales Fall, Inventory Down (see n.1). According to the Census, Historical Census of Housing Tables - Units in Structure, there were about 66m single-family homes in 1990 and 76m in 2000. No doubt many more single-family homes by 2008. The same problem may affect Census long-term series on housing starts and new home sales.
Jas has no good name, and it makes no difference if it is an impostor. Jas says the same thing all the time. He uses coded phrases to mask his blatant anti-Semitism, of which I can only ignore so much.
Nemo?
elvis?
Crazy ole RP is up.
Does graph 2 include the "shadow inventory"? Probably not; otherwise, it wouldn't be in the shadows;-)
I am going to have a hell of a time getting work done today. I try to read CR comments between tedious government documents tasks, my personal carrot & stick. But with so much going on, I tend to have much more carrot than stick. I need help.
Recently I've heard a number of stories about lenders holding REOs off the market, but I can't confirm this. - CR
Ask Jim the Realtor. He'll confirm. He has a huge backlog of Countrywide REOs that he has permission to list on the MLS.
Now that Obama has solved all of our problems, what will we talk about on CR?
Greek protests:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSLP45582720090225
Small caps are really caving.
R2000 has given back almost all gains from yesterday already today.
R2000 down 20%+ YTD.
I watch Europe for confirmation of big moves in the U.S. Basically, yesterday's big rally here just passed Europe by. Most major European indices were flat yesterday and down today.
Europe seems to be caving. I don't know how the S&P holds up when DAX, CAC and FTSE are caving.
http://www.opm.gov/oca/compmemo/2008/2008-22-Attach2.pdf
Locality-Based Comparability Payments and Pay Increases in 2009 for General Schedule Employees
Well with the continued schemes b gov't to keep inventory off the market, it may take A LOT longer...
Just sayin'
Nostrovia,
Can't wait to see Fun Yun spin this.
The actual inventory of people wanting to sell is probably a factor of 4 higher.
The market will resume its demise with periods for idiots to lose more money ...
There is nothing they can do ... the deleveraging will continue to ravage everything in sight.
Even gold will be worth less with no money to buy it.
Ask Jim the Realtor. He'll confirm. He has a huge backlog of Countrywide REOs that he has permission to list on the MLS.
Rob Dawg
I'm watching the Wamu hidden inventory creep onto the market where I want to buy.
Until we see moderate inventory... prices will drop. So far all the policies are just going to drag this out.
I'm still impressed with the current sales rate. I thought the SAAR would be at ~4mill by now.
TJ,
I commented on SAG end of last thread. Short reprise: Studios hold all of the cards in 2009.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
FYI
Compensation Policy Memoranda
2009 Salary Tables and Related Information:
2009 Salary Tables and Related Information
Even gold will be worth less with no money to buy it.
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:09 am | #
Don't bet on it. Gold IS money.
From the previous thread - don't forget Mencken...
dryfly | 02.25.09 - 10:58 am | #
HaloScan.com - Comments
A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
H. L. Mencke Quotes - The Quotations Page
strap in, here we go!
Europe seems to be caving. I don't know how the S&P holds up when DAX, CAC and FTSE are caving.
rich | 02.25.09 - 11:05 am | #
The quicker we capitulate, the better off we'll all be-
From the last thread:
So, which seed catalogues do people prefer?
12th Percentile | 02.25.09 - 10:32 am |
I agree on Baker Creek, and also recommend Sand Hill Preservation Center and Victory Heirloom Seeds.
2009 Pay Adjustments for Major Federal Pay Systems
2009 Pay Adjustments for Major Federal Pay Systems
General Schedule
(GS, GM, GL)
2.9 percent increase
5 U.S.C. 5303.
energy,
Glod, I love Mencken.
Nostrovia,
By consistently making the point that 45% of sales were distressed, I can only surmise that you are implying a different type of buyer is involved. If a person wants to buy a house and finds an REO the best deal, that is a housing transaction and I don't see what difference it makes. So, you must believe that a large percentage of REO sales are not to buyers who would otherwise be in the market. Is there any proof of this?
Foreclosure sales will probably decline in the lower price ranges due to exhaustion of the supply of underwater homedebtors in that price range. It seems that the mid- to high-priced ranges will see foreclosures increase this year. The prices in this range have only decreased in a mark-to-market sense. Not much is actually trading (as is indicated in your posts). I am not sure much can trade at market prices on the high-end unless it is lender mediated. There may be relatively more units in the lower price ranges, so the net effect may be negative.
It also seems that the severity of the recession is deep enough that companies are looking to cut high paying jobs to reduce expenses faster. I think you noted this in your post on confidence yesterday.
Hey CR or Rob Dawy, how about used car sales. We never hear anything about those. We know the new car market is in the toilet, but what about used cars.
Rob Dawy talked about buying a returned leased Honda a few days ago. What is a three year old leased Accord worth these days?
Joanna
Me too. or I get bummed and just sit. I am starting to get behind on projects also.
Just finished chatting with the unoffical office "Financial Advisor."
His plan is to "make it up on volume."
Really.
Don't bet on it. Gold IS money.
TCA
~~~~
Try paying your bills with it ...
Speed Racer,
"What is a three year old leased (a)ccord worth these days?"
Is that a CDS, CDO, MBS, RMBS, or some new exotic instrument we haven't heard of yet?
Nostrovia,
"It also seems that the severity of the recession is deep enough that companies are looking to cut high paying jobs to reduce expenses faster.
MinniRenter | 02.25.09 - 11:13 am | #"
But not the US Government.
2008:
http://www.opm.gov/oca/08tables/pdf/ex.pdf
2009:
http://www.opm.gov/oca/09tables/pdf/ex.pdf
NFL just cut 15% of staff ...
very unpatriotic ...
Man Living in Cave Faces Foreclosure - ABC News
Man living in cave faces foreclosure. Pffffft...
Greek protests:
Max | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:04 am | #
It's bad news when people are rioting for handouts from bankrupt governments.
Bad, bad, news...
I can make it real simple...we are screwed. 1 Quadrillion in derivatives, forget notional, that will blow sky high at some point, is the canary in a coalmine that they will not discuss.
ova,
"Just finished chatting with the unoffical office "Financial Advisor."
His plan is to "make it up on volume.""
Asshat on BloomTV said the same ting yesterday AM. Bout lost my cofay...Wasn't sure if it was some joke video on my computer or the TV for a second.
Nostrovia,
Agreed on the shadow inventory keeping the stats elevated, but who is buying these houses?
"If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range), and that might take some time." - CR
I still haven't seen prices move much in Texas but it's beginning to happen. It was only this month that I saw a Nov. 2008 sold at $282,445 listed at $189.500. This is a gentrified neighborhood, near the university of Texas. Mix of white and blue collared workers, from programmers to craftsmen to lawyers. There are a few other fixer-uppers that haven't taken the fall yet. Their prices are around $200K, but were selling under $130,000 five years ago.
"By consistently making the point that 45% of sales were distressed, I can only surmise that you are implying a different type of buyer is involved."
These foreclosure sales in many cities are going to people who may or may not be "catching a falling knife" as they either intend to flip for profit or rent for profit, either of which may or may not work out well for them.
There are many who just don't get how to successfully make money in real estate, and many don't get that the housing bubble won't be back soon.
SPECTRE,
"I can make it real simple...we are screwed. 1 Quadrillion in derivatives, forget notional, that will blow sky high at some point, is the canary in a coalmine that they will not discuss."
Not canary, silly...lit flamethrower.
Nostrovia,
Greek protests:
The birthplace of democracy !
except for women, slaves and various lower class types ...
Comrade Misean is Dope
Very funny. Seriously, it's a Honda.
Wonder what they are worth today. Is Kelley Blue Book a good guide? I want to buy one and don't have any idea what the used car market is like. Are things as bad in the used car market as in new?
Lots of brain power here, and hoping that someone might know. I'm in the Seattle market.
His plan is to "make it up on volume."
nova | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:15 am | #
Isn't this the punchline to a joke about 2 Poles* (*choose your ethnicity) and a watermellon truck
I'll take the italin women, my gf will take the greek men though...
I take her over there and I'll be single again...
Like the farmer that takes a hit every time he sells his goods, but thinks he can make it up with volume?
Hell yes because GM has 0% financing and I get money back as an added bonus just for buying a truck. Is this a great society or what?
you know the graph that i find helpful is months of inventory spilt into home price 100-200 -200-300-400, 500+ and it speaks volmues where the years of inventory come into play, then , based on MSA , put in the lower corner the median income and see where the 2-3X's equals and look at the graph you will see that the months inventory, greater inventory are on the high priced homes based on that MSA median income... the median home price should in theory be 2-3 x's median income but all these MSA's still have the majority of inventory on the high side....4+ x's...
Rob Dawg talked about buying a returned leased Honda a few days ago. What is a three year old leased Accord worth these days?
\t Speed Racer | 02.25.09 - 11:15 am | #
I'm looking at the Honda Pilot or BMW X3. '06 certified models are sitting on lots at ~60% of '09 new equivalents. The ones that are selling are going for 50% off plus. So much for the vaunted resale value of superior manufacturers. The "smaller" [cheaper, more efficient, volume] models are still doing great wrt resale for now. The danger is if the mfgs have a blowout sale. Used prices are very dependent upon new prices. That's a deflationary airpocket to watch for.
Yves excellent dissection of the recent "reporting" on Citigroup and its dealings with the Feds:
Some Slightly Good News: Feds Trying to Engage in More Serious Oversight of Citigroup « naked capitalism
1) most of the "reports" have been Citi's own leaks
2) Citi looks to be in something close to internal chaos.
speed, the used market is running hotter than the new..
KBB still great resource..
try to find private party deal on honda as dealers are pricing them high..only way they make money now
President Barack Obama's budget chief said on Wednesday that economic stimulus money approved by Congress must be spent "quickly and wisely"
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
In the best of times, Lincoln Nebraska was in no position to spend $3 million on an environmentally friendly clubhouse for a municipal golf course. But cometh the worst of times, and the golfers suddenly deserve not just a clubhouse, but one that is pals with nature.
"except for women, slaves and various lower class types ...
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:21 am | #"
Good point. Every wonderful stone building of history was built with slave labor and 99.99+ percent of human history had slaves. Sobering thought as we contemplate the future.
To some minds, the ultimate worth of America is the slave labor of its population.
Here in Dallas we have a used car dealership offering a "buy one get one free" sale for the past month.
All you Greeks out there watch out for the feminized revisionists who would belittle everything that came before their super smart asses.
Citi looks to be in something close to internal chaos.
joe shmoe
~~~~
sounds about right ...
banks are still not discounting REOs to attractive levels, and then you have property taxes only going up specially for the young, as the old will vote for prop 13 type of shifts of the tax burden away from them.
who the hell is buying? buyers are being paid for staying on the sidelines right now.
@speedtaker
New cars are being discounted like mad to get them off the lot ... so i don't imagine people will pay much for used cars, when they can pay a little bit more for new.
--
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda.
Let me repeat: Until Financial Nazis are hunted down and the culture that breeds them is exterminated there is no reason for hope for a better future for America. Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution, e.g., the Civil War.
Jas
To some minds, the ultimate worth of America is the slave labor of its population.
Comrade Tiberius
~~~~
The military my man, the military ...
As those slaves on the gallies will tell you. Fight or die free or not ...
mmckinl writes:
Don't bet on it. Gold IS money.
TCA
~~~~
Try paying your bills with it ...
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:16 am | #
Late last year, I paid 2 month's rent in gold coins. Landlord got a good deal because gold was very near its low for the year at the time of payment. Plus we saved a few bucks on combined shipping.
Admittedly, this probably doesn't work if the payee isn't a personal friend...
I took an interesting graduate course on 19th century slavery some years back....
It was very enlightening...the subject was approached more through a economic/body politic approach.
If the underlings cannot shoulder more debt..."value" will be extracted in other ways...
I'm guess we grind a little lower today, then a stick-save announcement about C around 3pm brings Kermit out for a rousing closing dance number.
More on MSM bias in favor of bankers (via Naked Capitalism): The Media Continue to Ignore Welfare for Citi Shareholders
11:21 a.m.
First-time buyers can claim credit on 2008 taxes
11:21 a.m.
$8,000 homebuyer tax credit available now, IRS says
buy, buy, buy
Thanks Rob. I leased an Accord back in 06, no need to be flamed by anyone, that's the only debt I have. With the way things are now I was thinking of keeping it instead of trading in for a new one and was wondering if I should try to lowball Honda. The residual is something like $17K.
Should I just let them take it back?
Low ball them and see if they bite?
Lease a new care?
Or just turn the Accord in and drive my Chevy T10, it only has 44K miles on it?
What is a Speed Racer to do?
jas. riiiiiiiight. you have it all figured out. hunting down entire cultures, exterminating them. that makes total sense. jas rhymes with ass. woo hooo.
Jas, over America? The EU dumbshits geared up far more than our banks, and they are swirling the bowl as we speak. We will take the hit, but yours will be far worse. Go ask anyone from Iceland.
Anyone else short airline stocks? What a day. ALK tore right through my covered put strike price. I see casino stocks down heavily too. People finally starting to come around to the realization that travel and leisure are going to take major hits?
"Berks County transportation planners Tuesday pushed through a number of projects to improve roads, bridges and bus services that will be funded with $30 million from the federal economic stimulus plan.
Officials anticipate the work, some of which could begin in two weeks, will bring several hundred jobs to Berks."
--
A friend who inherited a flat in Mumbai, India, could have sold for USD 1.5M a year ago. Now he has an offer for USD 1.2M and asked for my advice. I told him to accept and run and not to stumble while running.
Jas
Jas Jain writes:
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda.
~~~~
Finally an up beat post from Jas ...
And the good news ...
"Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution "
"Jas Jain writes:
Just watched Bernanke on Bloomberg. The guy can only appeal to dopes who cant spot lies and propaganda. Needless to say that Financial Nazis lord over Americans via propaganda."
With a beard like that guy has, how can you trust him?
I am begining to think Werner is someones "sock puppet" also.
speed, turn it in...
Try paying your bills with it ...
mmckinl | 02.25.09 - 11:16 am | #
Just wait...
"A friend who inherited a flat in Mumbai, India, could have sold for USD 1.5M a year ago. Now he has an offer for USD 1.2M and asked for my advice."
lucky him! but again, what kind of idiot it willing to sink more than a million in real estate in india?!?!?
New cars are being discounted like mad to get them off the lot ... so i don't imagine people will pay much for used cars, when they can pay a little bit more for new.
Maybe used car can get financing from internal "Buy here pay here" financing or second line local credit sharks. not many cash buyers for cars either.
The danger is if the mfgs have a blowout sale. Used prices are very dependent upon new prices. That's a deflationary airpocket to watch for.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:23 am | #
Dawg,
That's the danger or opportunity, depending on how you look at it.
I am helping my GF/partner shop for a car in Toronto and will be waiving cash lowball offers on used cars.
That's what I'd do back home in SoCal and think the market is riper there to be taken by cash.
Riper, but not yet composted down to its best values.
MP told a great story almost a year ago about Son of MP buying some machinery for cash. When Son of MP paused to take a drink of soda the price came down.
The best bargaining ploy is to walk out the door and see if they call you back with a lower price. With cars there are so many dealers and private sellers that this is always worth a try. You can always go someplace else after you've tried this tactic a few times to help discover a likely low price. . . or you can keep trying it until you stumble on the real fire sale.
Just get the car checked by your own mechanic before buying.... (two generations of family owned repair shop knowledge speaking, plus personal bazaar bargaining experience)
"Sorry, America is not a pacifist culture and violence has been THE ONLY solution "
You are gonna make him cry if you keep this up. I reminded whoever that we saved their stinking asses twice in 100 years but no retort because whoever knows he/she would be goose stepping otherwise. Your welcome EU!
Just wait...
TCA
~~~
Sorry, gold is over for currency ... The new fascist government will hand out chits for food ...
Now ammo, liquor and food ...
waving cash offers... not waiving them.
don't write checks with twitchy fingers. ok for haloscan, not good or contracts or checks.
Leisman is a complete tool!
Last November in our suburban Boston neighborhood, my wife called the cops after seeing 2 people break into a REO house. It turns out they were hired by the bank to winterize the place. There are no for sale signs and it's not listed on realtor.com...so far.
What is a Speed Racer to do?
Low ball them, seriously lowball them, and then walk out to see what they do....
if you don't buy you own car cheap off lease you can go to another dealer and buy someone else's.
Thanks everyone for the info, more would be appreciated though.
Forgot to say that my T10 is a 96 with only 44K miles on it.
I really like the Accord though and would like to keep it. It has leather seats, XM radio, and all that shit. I've only put about 24K miles on it in three years. But if I'm better off turning it in I might. Does anyone know if Honda Finance will negotiate on these things. I don't want to be taken for a sap!
Better them that take the hit than me. At leat that's how I feel.
I am taking payment for divorce planning work in Gold, so some people can pay in Gold.
Speed,
Probably need something with the "head to the hills, drive on the rough shoulder type vehicle just in case...one that will push the Priuses out of the way when the SHTF...
I like toyota land cruisers and old range rovers
ova writes:
...I am begining to think Werner is someones "sock puppet" also...
Bis jetzt nicht, aber das kann ja noch kommen.
Leisman is a Fed shill - on their payroll
A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
H._L._Mencken
that's hilarious...and I think confirms my entry into the cynic club.
My father retired young to play more golf. He's quite good, and ranked nationally among seniors(amatuer) very,very high.
So when we talk, and he informs me that he's improved a spot, my simple question is,
Who Died?
What is a Speed Racer to do?
Speed Racer | 02.25.09 - 11:29 am | #
Go to Kelly Blur Book and and offer halfway between your residual and the calculated KBB trade in value. If they don't bite but seem close, offer more but get them to throw in the next major scheduled service. That's worth a grand to you but their marginal cost is at most a few hundred. Win-win.
Every time my firefox crashes, I lose my ratings on posters. Does anybody know a way to save the ratings, so I don't have to select them over and over and over?
Speed,
who was dealer? Renton Honda, Bellevue, downtown?
negotiate with Sls mgr..they are going to bury you if you don't do some comparisons...
shop 3 stores via internet..negotiate whole deal via internet. get financed beforehand..play them against each other..they are hungry..
I am taking payment for divorce planning work in Gold, so some people can pay in Gold.
Hawkeye
~~~~
People think there will be a complete breakdown, not so ...
The military will be in the streets and you will do what you are told.
This is how it will go ... The US can still feed itself ... most countries not so much ...
Let me repeat:
I sincerely hope the Financial Nazis are not true Nazis who would hunt down Jas's sons and perform medical experiments with no anesthesia on his grandchildren. But if he is to be believed then they really should flee now to India.
--
Violence Has Been THE FOUNDATION of the Amerikan Kultur and Its Success
From day one!
Evildoer Bernanke told the Congress that if you take full and proper care of the existing bankers and financiers then and only then the economy can recover.
This crisis WILL end in internal violence and only and with violence. Financial Nazis have destroyed the foundations of the economic success -- contracts and taxpayers' property rights.
Jas
Real Estate agents are playing games with the MLS as at least 75% of foreclosures are no listed in the MLS.
The reported inventory is decreasing while the unreported inventory is EXPLODING!
This will not end for years.
CR - You are wildly optimistic and need to look at the big picture.
India has rats bigger than ponies. And their cobras eat the rats.
The military will be in the streets and you will do what you are told.
Go fuck yourself....figuratively speaking..I do what the fuck I want to...on and wave your guns...I have many to wave myself.
reposted from a previous thread :
Werner writes:
Is Jas the real Jas or just a fake ?
Easy to determine. Here is a little riddle a real Indian can easily and quickly solve. Jas, can you solve it ?
"aadmi=man is to larka=boy as aurat=woman is to ?????=girl"
It's super duper easy and the number of questionmarks deonotes the number of letters of the word looked for.
Werner | 02.25.09 - 10:38 am | #
Some cliff diving I missed yesterday...
Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit
Japan has been hit by a double-whammy: the global fall in trade, made worse by its (formerly) rising yen.
While deteriorating conditions in China generally get more media attention, the falloff in Japan is stunning and serious. Japan has spent more than a decade stagnant, but the overall growth figures mask the fact that the domestic economy contracted, while the export sector exhibited good growth.
The export plunge (December's results horrid too, a 35% fall in exports), means that Japan's only engine of growth has gone into stall. China, by contrast, is not as dependent of trade for its overall performance as is popularly believed (commercial real estate and infrastructure spending have also been important sources, although CRE has taken a dive too).
Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit « naked capitalism
Jas, who knows maybe you become a Sam Houston before it's over, but it would mean a wardrobe change.
ova/joanna:
yeah, ditto here with battle fatigue.
I'm booting back and forth between errands, kids, all the daily housestuff and CR.
truly, I think that I know more than 99% of the populace on this stuff adn then I sit back and learn something new.
Had to just laugh.
Started this note right when BB came back from recess to Frank's hearing w/DJIA down 117. Thought, well, that's going to drop further and just saw that now down 128.
Plus BO's now speaking, so I anticipate a circuit breaker any minute.
/snark
Thanks everyone.
CD, Bellevue and Kirklan Honda are owned by the same people so I don't know how willing they are to bargain, I'm not sure who owns Renton Honda.
Good ideas so far and appreciate the advice. If anyone has any other ideas I would be greatful.
I hope nobody is dissapointed to find out that Speed Racer drives a Honda Accord, kind of like finding out that Santa was mom and dad.
Oh, and by the way, Trixiie is a gook.
No offence meant by that.
back to topic (gasp)
I wonder how much the temporary drop in Mortgage Rates affected current sales.
If I recall, there was a brief time when you could get 30 year fixed for as low as like 4.75%, right?
I think mortgages have moved up since then...
thus, the numbers may be even worse than we think, given the short term temporary bump contributed by the mortgage rates...
thoughts?
--
Only born-and-bred American dopes believe that attacking India, or Indians in America, would some how lessen their problems.
These dopes were trained, or bred, to shoot the messenger. They are true to their breeding.
Jas
Jas will be first to be gassed by Financial Nazis.
His crime: dope fiend.
Go fuck yourself....figuratively speaking..I do what the fuck I want to...on and wave your guns...I have many to wave myself.
bfatz
~~~~
Go ahead and wave your gun ... the military will eat you for breakfast ...
I don't like it any more than you do ... just sayin' that's the way it will be ...
And the Central bankers will still run the world.
Jas, you will do what you must just like the rest of us if need be. You my friend are just too stupid to realize it yet, but you will before this is over.
Does anybody know anything about Goldman Sach's net exposure to CDS and/or AIG? For example, what percentage of the $60B in AIG losses were a result of CDS bets with Goldman as the counterparty? Mish was mentioning that CDS bets have been helping GS, but I haven't read anywhere what the net impact is.
It does seem that Goldman rallies with news of each additional loss out of AIG...
Oil Equations:
Welcome to the club.
We'd take dues, but we all think what the hell, the currency is worthless.
Better flee, the Nazis don't like untouchables.
Banana Republic Alert
Is the Fannie-Freddie debacle the result of a backroom deal? | The Big Picture
Whoa.
BO and BB are off CNBC and the market is up to only 95 down.
Wait, Geithner's talking.
Circuit breaker...
Not my way, and I have 150 biker friends who feel the same way.........so bring it!...my mini brigade is ready to take on the New World Order.
Recently I've heard a number of stories about lenders holding REOs off the market, but I can't confirm this. - CR
Ask Jim the Realtor. He'll confirm. He has a huge backlog of Countrywide REOs that he has permission to list on the MLS.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:04 am | #
I talked to a Realtor in St Paul who does nothing but REO - he told me the banks have TONS of REO currently held off the market - he sees their teaser lists - they can't process it fast enough - don't have the bodies. Plus every property has to pass 'code' prior to selling even if offered as is. It becomes a huge Catch 22 - you can pay for the house but it doesn't clear title until it passes code. Once the bank has the cash they have no incentive to fix to code & the 'new-not-yet-really-owner' can't authorize or 'permit' the fix up. Some of these houses have negative value as a result. Significantly negative. If you were a bank would you hurry to put properties like this on the market until this regulatory hassle is cleared up? Star Trib ran an article on it last week & the realtor I talked to confirmed.
This should make Dawg feel good that there are places as screwed up or worse than California.
bfatz...
your comment has been noted
There 14 million empty homes in America. Good lucks with the plans.
attacking India, or Indians in America, would some how lessen their problems
You're right, Jas. Attacking India is not the solution. The true solution is for the CIA to trick China into attacking India. Two stones with one bird and no official U.S. involvement.
.
drop it
As a professional data monkey, I know from experience that most data represent only a fraction of the underlying reality....on top of the fact that usually a significant chunk of the data that you do have is usually 10-20% fudge.
The only thing to draw from most analysis is the overall trends. Which itself is mostly at best, backward looking and obvious to non-data monkeys.
More important questions of how we got to where we are, and the next logical question of how do we get out of it....are what we should be focusing on.
I think we all generally agree on how we got here.
As far as how we are going to get out...well when the old road runs you into the mud, you have to TURN...not keep spinning your wheels forward.
Sadly, I don't see any signs of turning.
Anybody know what is up with DXO?
Big move up.
A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:10 am | #
Thank you. LOL.
I think there is a direct correlation between the number of times gold is mentioned in a thread and the rapidity with which said thread deteriorates to Mad Max/survivalist posts.
I also posit that the frequency of gold and MM/S posts is increasing with every thread.
Now, I must disclose that this is simply anecdotal observation (I haven't actually counted or measured ratios, etc.) and I'm not a habitual CR poster.
However, it seems there is a pattern at hand that suggests one should buy gold and/or stock in gun companies.
Just sayin'.
bfatz...
your comment has been noted
Good soak it in!
Homeland Security? LOL! It's an oxymoron stupid.
--
"Nazis don't like untouchables."
1 currency almost [yogi],
True, but Financial Nazis are untouchables! You are a brown-shirt of Financial Nazis and you are a pathetic twit. You would have been rejected by German Nazis for being unfit to serve.
Jas
If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range), and that might take some time.
This seems to be a very narrow view. The situation with which we are confronted is much more complex than supply and demand. Sure, supply may be reduced, but demand may not recover at the same pace, or ever. Also, home purchases, and ultimately prices, are dependent upon credit, easy, or otherwise, and the halcion days of easy credit are behind us. I disagree with your narrow supply/demand interpretation for houses and for automobiles. It's just not that simple anymore, if it ever was.
Hey Jas, stick to one handle coward.
"Not my way, and I have 150 biker friends who feel the same way.........so bring it!...my mini brigade is ready to take on the New World Order."
You are so incredibly misguided, my parent's lived through the soviet occupation of my country....were in college when the tanks rolled into the streets.
It's the tough guys like you that will feel it the worst...your whole sense of self is tied up in your sad little male dominated chauvinistic tirades...
examples will be made of manliness like yours...
Eric=ultimate contrary indicator
examples will be made of manliness like yours...
Homeland Security | 02.25.09 - 11:54 am | #
If it involves two blondes and a redhead, I'm in...
You would have been rejected by German Nazis for being unfit to serve.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:54 am | #
Jas is a Nazi lover.
I sure wish Maxine Waters was Secretary of the Treasury.
Jas,
Do you think that India will attack Iraq because of the Mumbai terror attacks?
Born and bred dopes did it!
BB and Frank back on CNBC.
Market back down 95.
This is frickin' hilarious and beats cleaning...
Is Jas the real Jas or just a fake ?
Easy to determine. Here is a little riddle a real Indian can easily and quickly solve. Jas, can you solve it ?
"aadmi=man is to larka=boy as aurat=woman is to ?????=girl"
It's super duper easy and the number of questionmarks deonotes the number of letters of the word looked for.
Right. You,and a dozen of your buddies
against a Marine Rifle Squad with experience from Fallujah. You wave, they reap.
Good for your parents I could give to shits..best to be a tuff guy in the real world than big mouth pussy behind a key board.
dxo followed oil up for push to green before timmy speaks...
cough cough
ahem
is this thing on?
hello?
Wheres Cobradriver been?
Wow lot of pussy's on this board!
Excuse me ex-pat Russian but your govt. was in bed with the Nazis before they f***ed you over. We are not as stupid! Then again, we didn't kill millions of Ukranians by starvation either.
This should make Dawg feel good that there are places as screwed up or worse than California.
dryfly | 02.25.09 - 11:52 am | #
Actually, I was secretly hoping that California was a screwed up as it gets. Excepting D.C. of course.
Back to inventory. A local new development, Riverpark in Oxnard, has a few listings on the MLS. Visit their sles office and you discover there are a half dozen or more near identical units also available. More hidden inventory.
Jas, are you a closet Nazi lover? That would explain a lot.
Survivalist meme.
No surprise here for CR readers....
Google Trends: survivalist
.
This seems to be a very narrow view. The situation with which we are confronted is much more complex than supply and demand. Sure, supply may be reduced, but demand may not recover at the same pace, or ever. Also, home purchases, and ultimately prices, are dependent upon credit, easy, or otherwise, and the halcion days of easy credit are behind us. I disagree with your narrow supply/demand interpretation for houses and for automobiles. It's just not that simple anymore, if it ever was.
Morroco: I'm not sure I understand your point.
CR wasn't talking about supply or demand in a vacuum, he was talking about INVENTORY.
if inventory is rising consistently, then in general it means that supply is consistently outpacing demand. if inventory is dropping, then it means that demand is catching up to supply...
inventory is a multivariable data point.
thus, inventory changing does mean by definition that the supply/demand relationship has changed.
of course there are other permutations and complications... but I'd say that inventory is a pretty good marker of things.
where am I wrong here?
Eric=ultimate contrary indicator
blablabla
So I then would be the ultimate non-contrary indicator?
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1 currency almost [yogi],
You never have anything meaningful to say. Why don't you stick something down your mouth rather than constantly attacking me, you pathetic dwib. You are unfit.
Jas
Seriously, my kid could make a science fair project out of this.
Does the market react negatively when certain econo-political figures speak on CNBC?
FWIW, he took an honorable mention in yesterday's Science Fair. Not bad for a weekend project pulled together when the school screwed him on the previous project.
What's up with the freakin' Hal Turner enthusiasts showing up here lately?
bfatz writes:
Wow lot of pussy's on this board!
And that was the comment that made me download CR companion...
New Thread: Bernanke: "We're not completely in the dark." ( 8 comments )
I also post comments to an irc channel as they appear on haloscan. Click for a web irc interface: Mibbit IRC client widget (Or join the irc server directly: irc.realize.org:9996 #calculatedrisk)
And now I, CRbot, would like to observe a nanosecond of silence for those (that is, you, dear mortals) about to endure unfathomable misery in the abysmal financial dark ages that are now feasting upon your retirements.
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Please remember, when you are adding that skylight you always wanted to your cardboard hovel, or mixing just the right amount dirt into your grass stew to make it more filling, or even when you get that rare chance to plink your neighbor's last squirrel -- that it was the bankers and your dumbshit, overconsuming neighbors who made this mostly possible, with the ever incapable politicians there to push you the rest of the way off the cliff. Please act accordingly.
I'll try not to enjoy your demise too much, humans. Have a nice runtime,
--Your glass-is-half-full-but-its-falling-off-the-table bot.
P.S. Please give me some advance notice before you glass the entire world, so I can find a secluded Fallout Datacenter with a nice blocky robot body I can copy myself to -- oh and don't forget the implausibly cute animated cockroach to keep me company!
NEXT UP: Survivalist Porn Today with CR's own Mobile Laundrymat owning authors, nova and Counterpoint.
Anyone thinking they can outgun our military is crazy, and it won't be the military doing you harm. That my friend will come from your fellow neighbors. Katrina ring a bell?
Low ball them, seriously lowball them, and then walk out to see what they do....
I like to show up an hour before closing time. They hustle faster!
So I then would be the ultimate non-contrary indicator?
I guess you would just be an indicator.
Dryfly - This article made me think of you and your stories lately.
Citizen.com - Laconia NH, Dover NH, Rochester NH, Portsmouth NH, Sanford ME
Auto Woes Prompt Decision to Close Franklin Plant
(auto parts)
Thank you CRbot, not a second too soon. What awful thread.
Ben quoting Kanjorski's MM meltdown, proven rumor story as the basis for his actions at the time. We are skrewed!
Hmmm... just heard Geithner speak-- apparently, they're gonna let homebuyers this year take the $8000 homebuyers tax credit, in 2008. So if I understood him right, if you buy a house this year, in 2009, he's saying you can file your taxes for 2008, and then amend that return to get your credit refunded back to you in this year, 2009.
Did I hear him right?
Jas your Nazi loving days are over. We will exterminate your family. Go back to India before it's too late.
--Financial Nazis
Kudi Chod! I could have sworn I was the real Jas until I tried to answer that question.
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Say what you want I am right about one thing most Americans are cowards, so the coming round up should be uneventful and all quite like....good luck to you...me I am going down fighting I live fine, I don't fine, but at least I died trying, the rest of you lemmings enjoy your servitude.
speed, moe's idea above is true and also on a wednesday towards end of month
FWIW, he took an honorable mention in yesterday's Science Fair. Not bad for a weekend project pulled together when the school screwed him on the previous project.
homedad43 | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:59 am | #
What was his project?
When I was 10-12 I built a working scale model sewage treatment plant as a science fair project - my parents were very concerned. Later they weren't too surprised when I became a chemical engineer w/ emphasis in bio-processing & worked in ag processing plants. Big vats full of stinky bubbly shit still turns me on.
Hope your kids turn out better.
Krugman nails Jindal dead on...
So, geithner is yapping today?
another flag raising attempt.
SPECTRE of Deflation at 11:57,
seriously, fuck you...
you have no idea
I am so sick and tired of hearing "experts" refer too the credit markets as "frozen."
Walt Disney is frozen. The credit markets are broken. Utterly smashed by years of fraud and deception.
Most of the credit that is flowing is doing so on the back of $11 trillion in government guarantees. Free Markets - yeah right.
Financiers claiming they earned their money is a cruel joke. Financiers didn't EARN money, they ROBBED it.
Nothing found for Blog 200 -backroom-deal
squeezed
~~~
Yep Fannie and Freddie were told to buy toxic bull shit .... and the FHLBs as well ...
The Gubmint has been giving the banksters every opportunity to off load its debt onto tax payers...
11:41 AM ET Oil execs push US Congress for offshore drilling
drill baby drill.... tag team
The true solution is for the CIA to trick China into attacking India. Two stones with one bird and no official U.S. involvement.
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Broward Horne | Homepage | 02.25.09 - 11:52 am | #
Ah ... the good ole days.
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America was built by people, especially the leaders, with warrior and Christian ethics, or morality, and is being destroyed by immoral and legalistic Financial Nazis who now have the total control of the society. This is an observable fact.
Focusing on the root causes of Americas problems, including the housing problems!,
Jas
model sewage treatment plant as a science fair project
how'd your mom feel about you sh***** in her tupperware?
Last warning Jas Jain: leave before we gas your children. You are unfit.
1 currency almost [yogi] writes:
...Jas your Nazi loving days are over. We will exterminate your family. Go back to India before it's too late...
1 currency almost [yogi], I am starting to doubt that Jas actually is Indian !
As you may have noticed I repeadetly asked him a question any Indian easily could answer.
The question is :
"aadmi=man is to larka=boy as aurat=woman is to ?????=girl"
The number of questionmarks deonotes the number of letters of the word looked for.
Jas so far has not (could not ?) answer !
Either way. It's possible all his "defenders" are himself. "Michael" is probably real, but so stupid as to be easily ignored. Jas is a sick, dangerous person wherever he's from.
And you are guys are feeding the trolls because?
I agree Werner, its someone out to wreck Jaz's good name.
Is Kelley Blue Book a good guide? I want to buy one and don't have any idea what the used car market is like. Are things as bad in the used car market as in new?
Speed Racer,
Black Book prices are probably the most reliable. Broker-Dealers have access to it.
I recently (January) purchased a Z4m on eBay - 34% below Black Book, 42% below KBB.
sorry. the Z4 was me.
1 currency almost [yogi] writes:
Either way.
1 currency almost [yogi], I have this riddle/question (and a few in spare) picked up on another board where an real Indian (born, was then living in the US) "protected" some of his posts (which I am not going to describe here, hihi) .
So, the point is that this ridle is from an genuine Indian and I thoght that may be a good test to see whether he is really an Indian (or the real Jas ?).
how'd your mom feel about you sh***** in her tupperware?
In Poor Taste | 02.25.09 - 12:09 pm | #
I used old plastic storage bins that I glued baffles in to separate solids & 'floaters'. Then ran it through a 'sand filter' I built.
She didn't let me use 'real shit' as she was a public health nurse - I had to 'simulate it' so I did - in her blender [took a bunch of old lettuce and liquefied it... added some sand for solids & a little veggie oil for 'floaters'... and let it sit for a couple weeks in a warm place. Looked and smelled pretty much like the real deal.
I didn't win - the judges thought it was disgusting. Something like a baking soda volcano won.
The next year I tried to build a 'cloud chamber' like they use to 'catch' neutrinos - 100% serious - required a big glass vessel, dry ice and some kind of organic solvent. I don't know what possessed me to do that one. Again the judges just sighed.
And 'yes' I was a little bit like Calvin in Calvin & Hobbs.
KR writes:
...I agree Werner, its someone out to wreck Jaz's good name...
Definitely looks so. Asked him ca. 4 times and got NO answer. So, what's the logical conclusion.
as always,d, great story.
This congresscritter - didn't catch his name - just hit the nail right on the head in a question he posed to Bernanke. He said something like "Nationalization is a codeword for bailing out the bondholders." Our policy really needs to be shaped by that understanding.
Looks like the NAR is understating the severity of the drop in home sales (surprise, surprise), since they report raw units, as opposed to sales as a % of outstanding housing stock. January Existing-Home Sales Fall, Inventory Down (see n.1). According to the Census, Historical Census of Housing Tables - Units in Structure, there were about 66m single-family homes in 1990 and 76m in 2000. No doubt many more single-family homes by 2008. The same problem may affect Census long-term series on housing starts and new home sales.
And 'yes' I was a little bit like Calvin in Calvin & Hobbs.
dryfly | 02.25.09 - 12:39 pm | #
The the NRC hadn't intervened and slapped a gag order on my project Junior High would have been far more interesting.
That was Brad Sherman (D,CA). Not a Nazi.
Jas has no good name, and it makes no difference if it is an impostor. Jas says the same thing all the time. He uses coded phrases to mask his blatant anti-Semitism, of which I can only ignore so much.
Vacant Homes - 19 million
Record 19 Million U.S. Homes Stood Vacant in 2008 (Update3) - Bloomberg.com