ISM Manufacturing Index: More Cliff Diving
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 01/02/2009 - 8:00am (214 comments)
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A little more wall of worry to climb before puking
and the DOW takes off
Load up excess inventory in excess GM trucks, send trucks to iraq, ship back troops in dry containers, problem solved.
Here is the link to the wsj.com article mentioning CR, in case anyone missed it:
A Chorus of Cassandras - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The "surprise" is that there were no industry sectors holding steady. "Contained" my shiny pink Pigâ¢.
Obviously it's time to buy.
Krugman weighs in:
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Bigger Than Bush - NY Times
Send the troops home the way GM execs went to the Hill the first time. Give them houses, ponies, cheese and subways. Use TARP $.
He added, "manufacturers are reducing inventories and shutting down capacity to offset the slower rate of activity."
IMO it is more a case where fear of deflation eroding the value of finished products in the pipeline that is driving inventories.
Those ISM people are SUCH nattering naboobs of negativism.
I prefer the stock market folks. Those guys know how to party.
I prefer the stock market folks. Those guys know how to party.
While the music's playing, you gotta dance...
Anecdotal, but I work in the southeast with wide variety of industry types. Those that are housing related (cabinets, hardwood flooring, etc.) are off 50%+. Upholstery and contract furniture companies are slowing but still relatively busy. The contract furniture folks tell me they see considerable slowing in January.....
A nice piece :
Market Skeptics: *****Ten Major Threats Facing The Dollar in 2009*****
Way OT: Kathy Griffin CNN New Years
"You know what, I don't go to your job and knock the..."
last night i went to macys here in california they were selling $400-$500 sportcoats for 40-50 dollars with extra discount for macy card holders.
I have no idea how they can afford to sell at those prices.
I prefer the stock market folks. Those guys know how to party.
While the music's playing, you gotta dance...
CR correctly called the last turn. Can it do it again or is it just a one trick pony ?
comrade rs writes:
I have no idea how they can afford to sell at those prices.
They have 50 cents worth of material and cost 5 cents to produce...?
What are sportcoat sweatshop wages these days?
Closer to the bottom than EVER!
There's never been a better time to make things.
CR correctly called the last turn. Can it do it again or is it just a one trick pony ?
With all due respect to CR, i don't ply the markets.
Only fools and horses..
Seems like another major deflationary signal. That plus the news that U.S. equity markets destroyed $6.9 trillion in wealth last year. Maybe Ben can't print his way out of this one.
[last night i went to macys here in california they were selling $400-$500 sportcoats for 40-50 dollars with extra discount for macy card holders.
I have no idea how they can afford to sell at those prices.]
I think they discovered that no one can afford to buy at 400-500.
I'm waiting for high-end retailers to start announcing store closings. I would not be surprised if that's only a few months away.
I have no idea how they can afford to sell at those prices.
comrade rs
They're battling their vendors for markdown $$. Still that's a nasty hit. May have to stop by and check it out.
I'm waiting for high-end retailers to start announcing store closings. I would not be surprised if that's only a few months away.
lama | 01.02.09 - 11:30 am | #
I'm sure that will be seen as a positive for the markets.
Maybe Ben can't print his way out of this one.
More than 8T are pledged, inflation will out before the end of this.
Oil on fire, so to speak.
can confirm RS re: Macy's...I bought a few of them two weeks ago...same price at the Union Square store.
OT: Anyone see Ace Greenberg's "interview" on B'Berg the other day? Just a piece of work he is. His line is that it was all the mortgage industry's fault.....and not Wall Street's....his mantra is that BSC, LEH, MER and the rest of them were victims. If you did see it you may have noticed that background too...totally stereotypical IMO.
Ciao
MS
The only tickets that remain (in the thousands) for the Vikings playoff game this Sunday are interestingly the higher end ($80-$160). The lower end tix are sold out, but tickets on the 50 yard line, 9th row could be had as late as yesterday on the team's web site. Looks like pro sports has finally priced itself out of their consumers' ability/willingness to pay for it.
Oil on fire, so to speak.
More escalation of war?
ever been a better time to be bought or sold.
Source:http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,3912363,00.html
Expert: Not All Bad News for German Job Market in 2009
Despite the economic crisis, Germany's Federal Employment Agency doesn't anticipate an increase in the number of long-term unemployed people in 2009. One of the reasons: steady demand for skilled workers.
When you maintain, as a part of state policy, a manufacturing base, then you have labor capitol.
snip
if the fiscal crisis doesn't result in a shortage of capital, then there's a good chance that German small and medium-sized companies will have enough orders to prevent job cuts, the employment expert said. ...
Many of Germany's top companies have offered job guarantees in 2009 -- a move that creates confidence,
And keeps consumers spending. You also need provide training, an apprentice program for example. Cutting off benefits and expecting them to sink or swim is wrong and callous.
... Some 62 percent of people who've gone longer than a year without work either have no diploma, or a general education certificate from a Hauptschule -- the lowest-ranked form of secondary school in Germany's three-tier education system.
Weise says that the current focus and investment in youth employment is reflected in the fact that people under the age of 25 now make up only 2 percent of long-term unemployed.
"The state has invested a tremendous amount," he said.
Furniture upholstery factories fall under The Foreign Trade Destination Zone where monies have already been put aside for tariff relief, but feel like it was so well hidden by the current admistration it will take calling your Senator to find it.
DOW 10k, today!
Being in the garment business, I can tell you that a private label sportcoat uses approximately $10-15 in fabric and trims & $10-20 for cut & sew. Add shipping and you've got a LDP cost of about $35. For branded product you need to add another 50% for their margin.
re: oil...they're just pricing in the invasion of Gaza. It's not if...it's when. I totally agree with the Israeli's. You have a small faction of a population (Hamas) firing rockets into Israel and the retaliation affects the entire population. Solution?.....get rid of Hamas and the population of Gaza won't pay the price for it.
Ciao
MS
Morning everyone,
MBS - The Fed (tax payer) Has to Bailout Foreign Central Banks
Probably already known to most, just a recap. Some quotes:
Purchases will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.
The New York Fed will adjust the pace of its purchases based on input from the investment managers..."
âWhat we are asking," said Daniel R. DiMicco, chairman and chief executive of the Nucor Corporation, a giant steel maker, âis that our government deal with the worst economic slowdown in our lifetime through a recovery program that has in every provision a âbuy America' clause." (from Page 1 of today's NYTimes)
It's only a matter of time until the protectionist fervor here reaches the point where the Chinese find it necessary to bitch slap a Treasury auction.
Please...no Gaza, Hamas, Israel, blah blah blah
Was at a New Years Day Party yesterday. Talked to a mortgage broker who said many of her clients were calling her to say they had stopped making their mortgage payments and were walking. Said she had at least three empty homes on her own street. (new development).
Today's rally is indicative of the coming "growth" in our eCONomy:
Manufacturing down. Oil and commodities up.
THAT should definitely lead to prosperity.
This is a worth a quick read, especially that part where bidders without charters CAN bid on Indymac.
...any takers?
FDIC sells IndyMac to private investors for $13.9B - Jan. 2, 2009
snip
Of the 25 banks that have failed so far this year, IndyMac is the only one the FDIC could not immediately sell. Last month, the agency expanded the pool of bidders for failed banks by allowing those without bank charters to bid for the institutions. Bidders would need to obtain charters before the deal closes.
The spoozer blows thru 918 -- is your stop next?
william(Unrated) writes:
\tBeing in the garment business, I can tell you that a private label sportcoat uses approximately $10-15 in fabric and trims & $10-20 for cut & sew. Add shipping and you've got a LDP cost of about $35. For branded product you need to add another 50% for their margin.
\t william | \t \t \t \t01.02.09 - 11:36 am | #
Thanks, William; one of the great things about this blog is the info you get from people who actually know what's going on in the field. So, Macy's is just trying to get their money back out of the product, and the devil take the overhead.
Angry Saver writes:
Today's rally is indicative of the coming "growth" in our eCONomy:
Manufacturing down. Oil and commodities up.
THAT should definitely lead to prosperity.
Angry Saver | 01.02.09 - 11:39 am | #
LOL. You just summed it up right there. So true and highlights the utter ridiculousness of our plight.
Along the same lines,
Nice work, if you can get it
"The Federal Reserve will print money to buy $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities by June, specifically MBS issued by Fannie, Freddie and their sister Ginnie Mae. And guess who the Fed has hired to manage the purchases? PIMCO, Goldman, BlackRock and Wellington.
This is quite a scam for all of them, especially PIMCO. The ultimate self-bailout you might call it. As of June 30th, 61% of the PIMCOs assets were invested in MBS. $500 billion in total. No doubt the others also own a pile of Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie bonds.
In sum, these firms just got hired to use the publics money to buy assets from themselves."
from Rothbard :
Public confidence in the countrys money can be lost as well
as gained. Thus, suppose that a money is King Henrys paper, and
King Henry has entered a war with another state which he seems
about to lose. King Henrys money is going to drop in public
esteem and its demand can suddenly collapse.
It should be clear then, that the demand for paper money, in
contrast to gold, is potentially highly volatile. Gold and silver are
always in demand, regardless of clime, century, or government in
The Demand for Money 65
power. But public confidence in, and hence demand for, paper
money depends on the ultimate confidenceor lack thereofof
the public in the viability of the issuing government. Admittedly,
however, this influence on the demand for money will only take
effect in moments of severe crisis for the ruling regime. In the
usual course of events, the publics demand for the governments
money will likely be sustained.
so when will the Confidence in the USD be gone??
william | 01.02.09 - 11:36 am
Thanks, my 17 yr old daughter and I are still discussing clothes, values, etc. based on your comment.
and for the Inflation Guys i guess BB is onto that..
On the other hand, suppose that people anticipate a large
increase in the money supply and hence a large future increase in
prices. Their deflationary expectations have now been replaced
by inflationary expectations. People now know in their hearts that
prices will rise substantially in the near future. As a result, they
decide to buy nowto buy the car, the house, or the washing
machineinstead of waiting for a year or two when they know
full well that prices will be higher. In response to inflationary
expectations, then, people will draw down their cash balances,
and their demand for money curve will shift downward (shown
in Figure 3.7). But as people act on their expectations of rising
prices, their lowered demand for cash pushes up the prices now
rather than later. The more people anticipate future price
increases, the faster will those increases occur.
it ends in Phase 3 in Hyperinflation because the FED trows Money around like Candys..
The spoozer blows thru 918 -- is your stop next?
Short bus filling up, not quite full yet but seats are only available in back and soon to be standing room only.
Drool cups and Kass/Cramer T-shirts required!
Looks like more "light volume tape painting" going on today within the markets. Odd that SRS is holding up rather well considering.
and highlights the utter ridiculousness of our plight.
Look at it this way. Folks are supposed to work hard to get money that can then be devalued.
Good grief. It's no wonder so many are broke.
Yoringe,
confidence is probably lost 2009-10. However I am not by inclination a gold bug, although I respect the reasons why some prefer a non-edible useless maluable metal to hoard as a hedge against harsh times...
...let's say i'll grow food, stockpile various useful items (goodwill as well) and we'll just see how the whole thing turns out...
@Angry Saver: Yep, yet another reason why we're screwed. I get the feeling that even the sheeple know that something is amiss and have an uneasy feeling. They're not quite sure about all of the specifics but many are slowly awakenening from a deep slumber. '09 might be the great awakenening to the fact that we are truly screwed with very few good options available to us.
This is the time for the power of positive thinking. Let's call this the bottom. It's Up, Up & Away from here on out. Here's some music to get us started.
up, up and away in my beutiful balloon - Google Videos
Being in the garment business, I can tell you that a private label sportcoat uses approximately $10-15 in fabric and trims & $10-20 for cut & sew. Add shipping and you've got a LDP cost of about $35. For branded product you need to add another 50% for their margin.
william
Thanks William. Course there are other costs involved, yes? Design, sourcing, marketing etc.
The cure for over spending is more spending. This sums up the core of the solution by the powers that be.
Note, it can only be done in the US because of the dollar reserve status and the fed & treasury factory.
Woe betide others who try to follow this cure lest they fall by the wayside like japan did.
Angry Saver writes
Look at it this way. Folks are supposed to work hard to get money that can then be devalued.
I guess all these "Conventional Wisdom" Economist have forgot one thing in there calculus:
)
The Internet!! Spoke with my Girl about it and she said the Kids today dont want to pay for anything, they are used to get it free from the net...and seing the Pricre pressure on anything i guess paper money will go back to the intrinsic value of 0.
Wich would be ironic since the Communist had the Idea of a Society with no Money
"Maybe Ben can't print his way out of this one."
This really is the question of the era. To date, mainstream economic theory has been pretty much discredited. Even an eventual recovery does not now save it... it must also be proven that printing really was the reason for an eventual recovery, not simply a coincident event.
Good luck with that.
Economics is sort of where physics was at the start of the previous century.
DOW UP 150 on this?
Manufacturing index drops to 28-year low- AP
GMAC gives up some GM car financing in bailout- AP
Fannie says IndyMac has $1 bln in mortgage obligations: report- Reuters
Russia withholds gas to Ukraine for second day; Ukraine pleads case- AP
Oil prices cut in half 1 year after hitting $100- AP Euro-zone
Manufacturing contracts at record pace- AP
Belarus ruble sinks 20 percent, shocking citizens- AP
Recession will persist for the time being: ECRI- Reuters
Some of you are too early going long SRS. Look at its benchmark IYR; it's not finished going up and targets 43.XX. Holding these 2x ETFs during choppy trading (sideways-up) undermines the eventual gains, makes one unfocused and do foolish things (like quadrupling down).
Since this thread is about the weakened manufacturing sector, I guess a comment about outmoded US unemployment benefits isn't really OT. I didn't know what percentage of unemployed don't qualify for benefits.(From the latest Economist)
"Congress therefore has to pass special legislation to extend (unemployment) benefits, as it did twice last year, but political wrangling often delays such action. In the week that ended on December 20th, 586,000 workers filed a first claim for unemployment benefits, the largest number for 26 years. Yet such claimants are, in one sense, lucky: typically, 60% of unemployed people dont qualify for the benefits at all."
Argh,
I think China will calculate that $300mill disappointed Americans half-way across the world is better than 1 billion pissed off constituents at home...so, my vote, again is for t-bill destruction, followed by dog & cats living together.
Anecdote: my landlord accepted my 20% demand for rent reduction as part of my lease renewal.
$500 BILLION!? WTF? The way things are going, few years from now Obama's wife Michelle might dance on tables while totally wasted and laugh hysterically like Eva Braun in the movie Downfall. Not that she is a nazi or anything but because things are just so friggin fubar...
Why is assumed Bernanke doesmn;t want to crater the dollar. it would solve his problem gfast and he can poi9nt to the market.
We are witnessing the dismantling of the United States. What is the safest place on the planet from nuclear fall-out? That's where you should be putting your money.
Saw lots of commercials yesterday for "4.00% FDIC insured CD's" from the GMAC Bank.
sorry, I clearly valued each and every american at $1...I meant 300mill americans, not that each is worth a dollar a day...but that does setup an interesting info-mercial yes...
"For just $1 a day, you can support..."
/sorry
"Weise says that the current focus and investment in youth employment is reflected in the fact that people under the age of 25 now make up only 2 percent of long-term unemployed. "
Nice spin, herr doktor.
(People over 25 now make up 98 %...)
how can you be "Longterm unemployed" with 25 to start with??? you didnt havee the time i guess..
this is inflationary right?
ew barney song:
I inflate you, you inflate me,
we are a dollar deprecating family...
BB "quantitative easing" is inflationary since it increases the Money supply..no way out of that.. if the TARP stuff trickles down the Fan will be hit..
People over 25 now make up 98 %...)
1 currency soon [yogi] | 01.02.09 - 11:54 am
Very nice spin...I did not realize that. Ah, numbers...
Manufacturing doesn't matter any more. We are now a service economy, banking, financial securities, money managers, real estate....uh...never mind.
Glad to see the market respond logically to such a bad report by going signficantly down. Wait, hold on. Um.....nevermind.
again Download for free and read if you dont have it yet...
http://mises.org/Books/mysteryofbanking.pdf
The market is "forward looking". As Dennis Kneale said earlier this morning, "the recovery is underway." Yay!! What a relief.
this is inflationary right?
nades | 01.02.09 - 11:55 am | #
Think of it as winding the inflationary spring. With low inventories and less competition when input costs do start upwards again the pass through will be swift and unavaoidable. At the same time the dollar will crater and that will look and feel like inflation to everyone except BB. Oh, and taxes.
I think China will calculate that $300mill disappointed Americans half-way across the world is better than 1 billion pissed off constituents at home...so, my vote, again is for t-bill destruction, followed by dog & cats living together.
China isn't supporting the Tbill and the USD to help American consumers. They are doing it to support their own export sector, in which I suspect most of the top Party leadership has large stakes. They will bankrupt their country to save their export sector, and that will require continuing purchases of Tbills and dollar assets in general.
The driving forces are analogous to those driving the US government to bankrupt itself propping up the big banks, which are our end of the China-America mutual suicide pact - strong connections between the favored sector, the politicos, and the media.
It's only a matter of time until the protectionist fervor here reaches the point where the Chinese find it necessary to bitch slap a Treasury auction.
4shzl
Protectionism is worldwide and will only increase:
China will resort to tariff and trade policies to facilitate export of labor-intensive and core technology-supported industries, Li Yizhong, the minister of industry
wally @11:51 gets it.....totally. Especially this:
"Even an eventual recovery does not now save it... it must also be proven that printing really was the reason for an eventual recovery, not simply a coincident event."
Spot on Wally......SPOT ON
Ciao
MS
My take cross posted from Zacks.com
The new year is starting in much the same way that the old year left off, with dismal economic data. The Institute for Supply Managements Manufacturing Index fell to a reading of 32.4. This is the fifth month in a row that the index has fallen. It is far below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. As the chart from Briefing.com below shows, it has not been this low for a long, long time. Last month the total index was at 36.4, a reading that at the time was considered shockingly low. This months reading was also well below expectations of 35.0. Looking at the sub indexes, there is little reason for optimism. The new orders index continues to run lower than the production index, as it has for each of the last five months. For December the orders index was at 22.7, down from 27.9 in November and 48.3 as recently as August. The Production index fell to 25.5 from 31.5 in November and 52.1 in August. The employment index is holding up a little bit better, but is also on a steep downward slope, falling to 29.9 from 34.2 in November and 49.7 in August.
This index has a long history and is a very good predictor of future economic activity. However, it only deals with the manufacturing side of the economy. Over the years, manufacturing has declined as a percentage of the overall economy. However it does tend to be the major swing factor in the economy (along with housing) The service index is due out next Tuesday and is also expected to post a very negative (below 50) reading of 37.0, down slightly from Novembers reading of 37.3 and down from 50.6 before the stuff hit the fan in August. I suspect that the services index will also disappoint.
There is nothing in this report that would cause the market to be up the way that it is today. That may after all be the best news there is. The market has started to ignore all bad news, which is often a healthy development. On the other hand it could just mean that the market is being overly optimistic. CNBC came out with a survey this morning of money managers, and 26% of them expect the market to be up over 20% in 2009, while only 6% expect the market to be down in 2009. This is EXTREMELY disturbing news, as an overwhelming consensus of money managers is almost ALWAYS WRONG.
The economy is going to be very ugly in 2009, and I would advise sticking to firms with products that people need, not want, and which have fortress balance sheets. A solid dividend yield that is well covered, even by the low estimate of 2009 earnings is also a plus. Two examples of such companies would be Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Exxon-Mobil (XOM).
IMO tariff and trade barriers are the Maginot Line of the 21st Century. For all the sabre rattling and posturing from behind the balustrades deep down they know that those methods don't work anymore.
"BB "quantitative easing" is inflationary since it increases the Money supply"
This is not clear at all. Money may be destroyed faster than Ben can print... and the other completely unmeasured and unmonitored effect is the redistribution that happens as destroyed debt is replaced by printed money.
I think calculations based on a multiplier applied to stimulus spending may be seriously in error - I think the multiplier currently is well under 1.0. Money has to go to the lowest levels, ultimately, to stimulate spending but current belief still tends to the Reagan 'trickle down' ideas. I bet that FDR got more actual money out to consumers that Obama will for this reason.
dirk-
What did you expect them to say? Their jobs depend on fleecing more money into the system. They don't really believe it IMO....but they need to appear to...that's the real problem that we have.
Ciao
MS
Dirk,
Two points. One: Mr. Market can respond to worse-than-expected fundamentals by either going down in price or going up in price on lighter volume. We have the latter today.
Two: XOM is my best shorting candidate for this year. XOM has a date w/ 56.19 - highest volume ever on a daily/weekly/monthly bar... and it will likely go lower than that.
We still have factories that make stuff?
Rob Dawg,
"For all the sabre rattling and posturing from behind the balustrades deep down they know that those methods don't work anymore."
Hmmm...I guess you have to define "work". If work is that they destroy global trade and economies, they work quite well...vis. Smoot Hawley. If by "work" you mean boost doestic economy with no far ranging negative effects, well then, they NEVER work.
Of course, it is the debt default, which has led and will continue to lead to credit and money contraction, that will do a similar thing this time around.
Nostrovia,
Fair Economist,
Never lose sight of this mainstream (e)CONomic thought:
You never want to be competitive in a debt money system. Never, ever, ever!
We need to trash all money to create global prosperity. Nothing else will work.
OT: Great way to kiss off even more money:
Bjork launches Icelandic investment fund
Too funny!!
Ciao
MS
I think calculations based on a multiplier applied to stimulus spending may be seriously in error - I think the multiplier currently is well under 1.0.
Not well under but under. Ben created debt, less bang for the buck
Hmmm...I guess you have to define "work".
They work to get the masses to rally around their governments
Looks like more "light volume tape painting" going on today within the markets. Odd that SRS is holding up rather well considering.
I noticed a similar divergence between RUT and SPX. RUT not really playing along today (so far). Suggests a lack of confidence in the rally to me.
wally,
Your strong when you write stuff like this:
"This is not clear at all. Money may be destroyed faster than Ben can print..."
Why let partisan sniping ruin otherwise good analysis?
Nostrovia,
ac,
RUT had its liftoff Wednesday. EEM was lagging and is up 3%, should hit 26.46 next week and I'm out (or sell-stop underneath)
Dirk's post from zacks.com resonates with me. My gut tells me the Dow belongs in the lower 7000s or lower [*], but that kind of move obviously not anywhere near at hand. When stocks keep moving upward in response to bad news, it's usually short-term bullish. And stocks have been doing that for at least a couple of weeks. For those who like to play the short side, you're seeing opportunities open up again, but the trick is that you have no idea when the market finally wakes up to reality.
It's also interesting that treasury yields are UP in response to this horrible ISM report. I've been skimming [hat tip]
to get an idea of the reason behind bond moves - he claims bonds are simply moving down in response to stocks going up!
[*] Actually my gut tells me that corporate earnings will drop according to a certain pattern that's worse than what we're used to with the last 2 mild recessions. I derive my Dow estimate from this earnings estimate. My predictions about earnings come mainly from the SWAG technique - Simple Wild-Ass Guessing.
Regarding employment by age...
I massaged the US DOL unemployment numbers from last month and found that in the twelve months through November, 2008:
Employment of those over 55 went UP 3.25%
Employment of those 20-54 went DOWN 2.37%
(Percentages are change in number employed divided by the number employed as of 11/07, in each age segment. )
Since there are roughly 4x as many in the younger age group, that group had a much higher weight so the total employment (all ages over 20) dropped by 1.32%.
It appears that older people are both (a) most able to keep their jobs and (b) want to keep working (out of necessity??).
OTOH the younger cohort got hammered much worse than the headline 1.32% number.
Comrade Misean,
um, 'cuz I don't know any better?
Regarding the Macy's stuff at 90% off, that is probably around a breakeven to a small loss on the cost of making the coats. It's a bit like the $4 box of cereal. The wheat, oats, sugar, etc., are actually a pretty small part of the cost. Shipping, advertising, heating and cooling the store, and paying the people who stock and check out are actually more of the cost.
We clearly need a ISM Czar.
Well now, I'm off to my work, another day (but not for long) of trying to sell beautifully AMERICAN made furniture that will last 15 years+ to people who want to pay less than half of what it costs to build it. The landfil crap that Ashley sells cost less to produce than 75% of their lowest price. Oh yeah, It toxic as well. Keep buying Foriegn, it's such a deal.
NoVAwatcher | 01.02.09 - 12:08 pm
Stop it! Your scaring me!
[Argh writes:
The cure for over spending is more spending. This sums up the core of the solution by the powers that be]
Worse. The cure for an economy weakened by poor Fed policy is even worse Fed policy.
It's just too painful to addres the disease. Treating symptoms is far more attractive, to Wall St, so that's - How It's Done.
Hmmm...I guess you have to define "work".
W = (F)x(d)x cos(theta)
We clearly need a ISM Czar.
I think if we can find a way to inflate the ISM index the economy will naturally improve as a consequence.
Majority of the stimulus jobs are biased towards XY chromosome carriers.
XX carrier freedom may see a cliff dive.
Who will be hired to rebuild bridges, schools, hospitals..? or dig trenches to lay optic cables?
REBear | 01.02.09 - 12:20 pm
Ya gotta have flag girls
bearly,
I believe we will arrive at the enlightened stage where we treat the patient, not the disease--with positive thinking--
--I'm sorry, I didn't have my lead pipe out, let me just get it, here it is,
WITH POSITIVE THINKING, OR ELSE
These idiots talking about a "low VIX at 39 with these volumes are, well idiots
Best places for money in 2009? Have to agree with London Banker that only put imoney in places where respnsible citizenry and governements - Germany (albeit dragged down by the ECB), Yen (undervalued).
Forget the "market". The market doesn't price securities, cash flows price securities.
If you are anxiously awaiting for prices to fall (and are pissed that they aren't), go back to your filings and take a gander.
Even if the FED gave away "free" money to every business in America, the dilution would be extraordinary.
As we speak, the dilution on future bond yields is starting to be recognized.
Just, "Let time take care of itself".
from: "Pick up the tempo"- Willie Nelson
PS-I like Waylon's version better, but...
the point is highly relevant, I think.
doofus,
"W = (F)x(d)x cos(theta)"
ROFL.
"I believe we will arrive at the enlightened stage where we treat the patient, not the disease--with positive thinking--"
Positive thinking is under rated.
I poitively think that 2009 will get worse, and now Bloom TV is saying just that. And to think only a year ago they said it was all contained.
I'm so positive, I'm bursting at the seems with Happy, Happy, Joy Joy.
Nostrovia,
ice to know certain little masters of the financial universe have deigned to extend their competence and enighten us all on international politics. Kudos for making yourself more laughable than you already were. What should I be shorting today, huh, huh?
Forget the "market". The market doesn't price securities, cash flows price securities.
If you are anxiously awaiting for prices to fall (and are pissed that they aren't), go back to your filings and take a gander.
When markets start moving in straight lines, I'll stop dancing. Pontificate all you like; it doesn't put bread on the table.
Meanwhile, the new orders index, which hints at future activity, was weak at 22.7, from 27.9. The ISM said that reading was the lowest since January 1948.
Since new orders are contracting, backlogs should be dropping as well. This means that within a couple of months, manufacturers will have no orders whatsoever to fulfill. Thats when things will get really ugly. I expect manufacturing activity to drop close to zero at that point.
Just finished reading the linked book. A major portion of any stimulus program should be replacing the water delivery and purification systems in the USA.
The amount of illness caused by bad water in the US astonished me. Add the cancer risks of chlorination and the age of the water treatment plants and you have a disaster always ready to pounce.
Milwaukee had a cryptosporidium outbreak in 1993 that killed 100 people and sickened 400,000. One of the many stories included that tell the story of failed water quality/delivery.
Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Amazon.com: The Blue Death: Disease, Disaster, and the Water We Drink (9780060730895): Robert D. Morris: Books
"Well, my position on the recent market action is clear. I will not be reticent to 'rub it in' or 'eat crow' next week, depending on what happens."
Popeye's ego is never at issue, apparently, yours is. You'd be smart to get over that, but that's up to you. Go ahead, be a hero.
"In short, I don't think we're in imminent danger of falling off a cliff (at least for the next couple of weeks). But I'm just smart enough to know that I'm not very smart."
Would that everyone were that intelligent.
@ Comrade V,
I've had the best success using longer term put options on individual companies that are likely to fail. Timing is difficult, particularly with the potential for protracted rallies. But if you add to positions during rallies and sell into the dips you can typically lose small/moderate amounts during the rallies, but profit immensely when the market inevitably resumes its downtrend.
Popeye,
Ego was involved when you called me an idiot in a prior thread. I'll put my education, intelligence, and returns up against yours any day.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
I've had the best success using longer term put options on individual companies that are likely to fail. Timing is difficult, particularly with the potential for protracted rallies. But if you add to positions during rallies and sell into the dips you can typically lose small/moderate amounts during the rallies, but profit immensely when the market inevitably resumes its downtrend.
Let's all recognize that the market is a very broad space. We all live in our own niche.
Gavshire and I trade the same market from different time frames. We see things differently. That's just a fact.
children.....now we don't need to bust out the wallet to measure our intelligence. Doing that just means you can't present an argument.
people call each other names here all the time...resorting to pulling your pants down and measuring size is pretty lame.
Ciao
MS
Gavshire,
I hold a J.D. and have traded the market for over 30 years. Care to state your credentials ?
Stanford business degree, 4 years in strategy consulting doing proprietary investment research, now assistant to CFO in a startup.
Short term trading isn't a strength, but I'm rarely wrong on fundamentals.
Agree with MS, pissing match isn't helpful. Good luck with your strategy. I'm not going to waste my time on you.
Gavshire Hathaway, Popeye:
Many thanks to you both for your informative posts. Your differing perspectives and disagreements are extermely helpful in painting both sides of an issue/position and neither of you should feel challenged or slighted - its a great benefit to the rest for an informed debate. Please keep it up.
I will jump to next thread and hopefully we can continue.
Since burger flipping is now considered a manufacturing job, does this mean that less burgers are being flipped? Just wondering...
Stanford business degree
Yeah, and I bet that you get a lot of mileage out of that one. I make it a point to reject all pedigree arguments. For all of the Standford and Harvard business graduates pulling the levers in business, you sure have fucked over the world pretty good, especially Main St. Americans. Your "do whatever it takes to increase profits" mantra is coming home to roost finally. You pure geniuses shot yourselves in the foot when you exported millions of US manufacturing jobs to China. Now we have an economy of middle men with no supporting base. In the interest of self preservation, you eagerly sold us out to hostile foreign interests such as China, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. You overlook little details like communism, terrorism, Islamists and human rights as long as it's good for the bottom line. You value and worship money more than families, creativity, national secrets, and the collective intellectual property of my Nation. You welcome a slave labor class of illegal aliens, and promote a bilingual Nation because it's good for business. To hell with preserving a Nation and it's culture- you bunch elbows with other "not in my backyard" liberals, who support open borders yet want the few kids that you manage to produce to attend top 10 schools. When given the opportunity in safe havens such as Puerto Rico, you criminals destroy some of the most beautify places on the planet and their people. Just look at US Territories, who have virtually no representation outside of high-prices lobbyists for the global corporations that exploit their land and people. Yes, and you're immune from these tragedies because you wear the Stanford shield on your chest.
And one more thing. I hold degrees in Physics, Electrical Engineering and Biomedical Engineering, two of which are post-graduate, and one of which is a Ph.D., and I'd kick your ass up and down on any subject, any test, at any time, any place. Business...HA! Give me a fucking break you genius moron.
OT-
Rich,
What do you think of AXU which has some of your favorite stock SLW fingerprints all over it...
nice move last 5 days, could be toppy though...
thoughts..
Happy New Year to all...
Except in right to work and non-union areas
Caterpillar bringing 1,400 jobs to area
San Antonio, News | mySA.com
Caterpillar_bringing_1400_jobs_to_Seguin.html
SEGUIN — Caterpillar Inc. will build a $170 million engine-manufacturing plant here that will employ more than 1,400 people, company and state officials announced Thursday.
The economic development coup for Texas is part of the consolidation of Caterpillar's engine plants in Illinois — where a plant closing and layoffs were announced Thursday — and South Carolina.
Interesting analysis would be job growth/loss in union vs. right-to-work states.
"$300mill disappointed Americans half-way across the world is better than 1 billion pissed off constituents at home"
Undoing China's marriage to the dollar accomplishes both. They've wound themselves so tight to us through this vendor financing scheme, that it will be impossible for them to unwind it without a lot of blood on a lot of streets. Heard to say, at this point, who needs who more.
China isn't supporting the Tbill and the USD to help American consumers. They are doing it to support their own export sector, in which I suspect most of the top Party leadership has large stakes. They will bankrupt their country to save their export sector, and that will require continuing purchases of Tbills and dollar assets in general.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.02.09 - 12:01 pm | #
Exactly right. Lots of "Buy America" theatrics, but the exigencies of the debt auctions will rule the day. Mercantilist parasites will quadruple down, driving TNX as low as 1%, before their host ultimately collapses.
re Macys: As a former liquidator, I used to purchase Federated (Macys, Bloomingdales)overstock by the multi-trailor load.
My price was approx 8% of the retail price, on average. Store-brand merchandise was a bit lower, designer a bit higher.
You folks poo-pooing this faux (lasting) rally should be elated that your beloved TBT has broken out
Up 2% a day, every day, and INDU will be over 1,300,000 by Dec 31, 2009.
Well, popeye, that's the trouble with day-trading for capital gains, no?
It was just a point of interest. Namely that one shouldn't let the fear of being "priced out forever by xyz" worry their every waking minute.
The FED is pushing you guys into the same box as the realtors, dot com people, gold bugs, etc.
And, it pains me to watch the "gunslingers", as mp puts it, yo yo around so much.
wally writes:
"... and the other completely unmeasured and unmonitored effect is the redistribution that happens as destroyed debt is replaced by printed money."
Very interesting comment, and a point that I have not seen discussed before. Historicaly, during past financial panics in U.S. associated with improvident land speculation, the struggle between debtors and creditors gets played out in the legislatures, where the debtors have political support, while creditors rely on the courts to protect their rights. A politically unstable redistribution of wealth will accelerate and excerbate this struggle.
Yeah, the Dow is up, but the 10 and 30 yields are a rising.
Cliff diving? This is more like viewing WWII films of aircraft in dogfights or aircraft attacking ships - the death spiral. The aircraft gets hit, then rolls over and begins the final death spiral, nose down, smoke being expelled, circling like toilet water, and ended by plunging into the sea or going splat on the ground.
The ISM report is the smoke being expelled as the death spiral commences.
"My price was approx 8% of the retail price, on average. Store-brand merchandise was a bit lower, designer a bit higher."
Now that's interesting. A dear friend of mine worked as a paralegal on cases involving corporations sued for debt. She said the creditors were happy if they could get a small percentage - I don't recall the exact figure, but perhaps 10%.
Anonymous - VIX retreating is kind of a symptom of the lessened intraday ranges seen in the last couple of weeks relative to October timeframe.
The more I look into the VIX, the less I think it has to tell us except what the trailing 5-50 sessions intraday range % was.
No more niggling nerds of nastiness calling realists nattering nabobs of negativism.
Solution?.....get rid of Hamas and the population of Gaza won't pay the price for it.
Or is it,
Solution?...get rid of Hamas and the population of Gaza CAN LIVE IN SERVITUDE TO THE ISREALIES AS HAS ALWAYS BEEN PLANNED.
I don't know about you, but if somebody forced me into watts, then closed all the entrance/exits so I couldn't get food I would be firing missles at them too.
Slavery has been abolished for years, maybe somebody needs to tell Isreal that.
hong konger,
By in large I agree with your comments, however, I'm not quite a daytrader - close, but not quite. I don't fear the turbulence of the stream, but the roar of the waterfall makes my heart flutter.
Is the short bus full yet...
"...turbulence of the stream, but the roar of the waterfall makes my heart flutter."
You are also not afraid of being annoyingly trite.
squeezed writes:
Is the short bus full yet...
I sure hope so. Wedgies are sooooo much more fun when full of chitheadz.
Go Putin! Shut it down, baby, I peer into your baby blues and I see your soul.
Lat year it was the "Goldilocks" market, not too warm, not too cold, and everyone was happy until the Papa Bear came home and ate them alive. Now it's the "Tinkerbell" market, where it's dead, but everyone thinks that if they all clap together as hard as they can they can bring it back to life.
Well I did my part to help some retailers ring in the New Year...gave my tenants a 25% rent abatement.
Can I haz CRE bailout now?
south korea becoming a net importer is some scary stuff...
spy buying by the fed is a something i worry about.
What is with this steady rally? Zero volatility, just a constant climb. Makes me suspicious...
I'll also take the contrarian to the "rally" to S&P 1000 I'm hearing all over the place. Too many people are far too confident that we'll rally from here. Yet nobody believes in the fundamentals. Where are the new suckers going to come from? I'm building my short positions today, though I'm going to keep some powder dry in case the herd is correct.
As an aside, the commentators on CNBC are even more inane than usual today. Who listens to these idiots? They are seriously dumb as rocks, or disingenuous. I suspect the latter.
Would all taxpayers not have been sooooooo much better off to have nationalized AIG and one or two investment banks and let the chips fall where they may.
The Growth Industry is going to be undertakers and Mental Health Facilities...Just don't like a slowwwww, painfullll drawnout fall with the parachute cord already cut.
thanks for all the comments on the macys post.
it reminds me of a story my friend told me. he works for cisco and they were trying to sell millions of dollars worth of routers to Reliance which is a big indian telecom.
Apparently the reliance folks, disambled one of the routers and priced all the components, which works out to around less than 5% of the list price. They then offered 10% mark up on that price.
Cisco obviously walked but apparently a chinese competitor didnt and for the most part arent able to do much in emerging markets because of chinese competition.
GH,
I guess the question is; if Fed and Tinkerbell are selling to each other... at what point will they run out of money?
Wasn't there a nice run-up before the 1929 crash? Could we be seeing another run-up here?
MASSIVE rally over the past week. SPX UP 25% from its Nov. lows. Invisible hand is becoming less invisible.
Remarkable.
I'll also take the contrarian to the "rally" to S&P 1000 I'm hearing all over the place. Too many people are far too confident that we'll rally from here. Yet nobody believes in the fundamentals. Where are the new suckers going to come from? I'm building my short positions today, though I'm going to keep some powder dry in case the herd is correct.
Gavshire Hathaway | 01.02.09 - 1:24 pm | #
What you say makes sense but be wary of loose money. As we deleverage from all thses exotic instruments even with massive losses whatever is left will be looking to go somewhere in a world of increasingly fewer somewheres. 2.7182818284590452353602875% on the long bond? No thanks. Icelandic Krona? Again no and that goes for the other half dozen currencies that may be the next Icelandic Krona. Illiquid physical glod at a premium? Not. We could see money going into the markets despite lousy fundamentals.
As an aside, the commentators on CNBC are even more inane than usual today. Who listens to these idiots? They are seriously dumb as rocks, or disingenuous. I suspect the latter.
Gavshire Hathaway | 01.02.09 - 1:24 pm | #
Not that you're bitter.....
ok - maybe I'm stupid - doesn't everyone recognize some form of rally is building into Jan 20 ?
Christmas and New Year's Cheer and Annual Recap.
http://www.unclejayexplains.com/media/UJ%2012-22-08.wmv
comrade rs writes:
"Apparently the reliance folks, disambled one of the routers and priced all the components, which works out to around less than 5% of the list price. They then offered 10% mark up on that price."
As a former hardware vendor, we use to laugh at such arguments (even when they came from Cisco who was an OEM customer). They conveniently ignore the value of the R&D and the firmware.
Many networking hardware vendors offer various "speeds and feeds" on the same platform, a higher price merely flips a switch and accesses additional software with zero increase in COGs. COGs have little to do with ROI.
Try negotiating IP licenses with chip vendors, who want to rague on the basis of the "RE" your IP occupies on the chip.
Massive rally on low volumes. I'm very skeptical. I honestly believe that the Fed/Treasury are wading into the equity markets. The Bush administration is selling the farm trying to salvage its legacy with a massive "paint the tape" rally. Given their Keynesian beliefs, I believe that they honestly see equity intervention as an efficient way to provide helicopter drops.
The wildcard will be the Obama administration. Would you honestly want to take office after a massive rally like this? You're setting yourselves up for a major failure, as you've been handed an enormous turd sandwich.
If I were Obama, I would come out with some honesty quickly to lower expectations.
Reality is going to reenter these markets....and quickly. The hubris is way too prevalent here.
gasps as the exits in the Treasury marketplace getting crowded ?
ok - maybe I'm stupid - doesn't everyone recognize some form of rally is building into Jan 20 ?
Popeye | 01.02.09 - 1:34 pm | #
Unless it isn't. Or, if it is, then there will be one after Jan 20th, until the stimulus hit. Unless there isn't.
Rob Dawg writes:
"We could see money going into the markets despite lousy fundamentals."
Isn't that all part of the meonetary/fiscal plan? Reduce the value elsewhere (e.g. fixed income) to direct the available cash into other assets?
All the technical traders reading the tea leaves here. They will be right. Unless they aren't. In which case it will be easily explicable due to exogenous circumstances.
The only reason it works is herd mentality, and the power of "belief". Anyone here religious?
MS(Unrated) writes:
\tre: oil...they're just pricing in the invasion of Gaza. It's not if...it's when. I totally agree with the Israeli's. You have a small faction of a population (Hamas) firing rockets into Israel and the retaliation affects the entire population. Solution?.....get rid of Hamas and the population of Gaza won't pay the price for it.
Ciao
MS | 01.02.09 - 11:37 am | #
You almost got it right. The Israeli plan is what you say up to the point of 'won't pay for it,' which should be left out. Their plan is obviously get rid of Hamas and the population of Gaza. But then, killing civilians is only terrorism when it's not Israel's army doing it.
Excerpt of an interview between Rush Limbaugh and Dick Cheney from two weeks ago:
Q Over the years when I've spoken to you, you have purposely avoided any partisanship, because I know that this has been a policy of the administration. But I have to say when it comes, for example, to the housing crisis, the sub-prime mortgage business blowing up, Mr. Vice President, this is largely a Democrat Party scandal. Your administration tried numbers of different times early on in the early part of this decade to get new regulators in there, because the warning signs were all over the place. And the very people whose fingerprints are on the destruction -- that is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are now being allowed to sit there and ostensibly act like they were just innocent bystanders, and they're now the white knights running in to fix it when they broke it.
THE VICE PRESIDENT: No, I agree, Rush. I think the -- we did see fairly early on that there was a potential crisis in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I can remember Alan Greenspan, when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve, voicing concerns to us that this is a potential major problem if there was systemic failure here. So we put together a reform package, but Congress simply wouldn't touch it. And the banking committees, chaired by the Democrats on both the House and the Senate side, obviously, have not been willing until we've had this major crisis to talk about fundamental reform.
404 Page Not Found | The White House
Gavshire Hathaway,
Chill.
May I tap into the collective wisdom of this crowd for a second, please?
My 1992 Eclipse just jumped timing--means, new engine. Not worth it on this POS.
So, I need a "new" car. I'm thinking to spend 10 grand or less. What would you recommend in terms of reliability?
I don't drive more than 20 miles each day, sometimes less--all city.
I want something that is less trouble prone than the Eclipse. I would have liked a used Smart, but they are not allowed on La roads yet. LOL! Too slow...
Eric writes:
......Unless it isn't. Or, if it is, then there will be one after Jan 20th, until the stimulus hit. Unless there isn't.
My point exactly. The question is not what is going to happen 3, 6, or 9 months from now.
Each person finds his/her means and methods of trading - and then catches fish or cuts bait.
Popeye, at the moment I'm looking at the every short term. We've had a 500+ point rise in the Dow the past four trading days. I'd expect some kind of retrenchment. As for a genuine bear rally, yes we're in one - and I don't think we're done yet. Will it last beyond the inauguration? Well it goes without saying that no one knows for certain.
Trading today is more like a calculated gamble.
blonderengel writes: I'm thinking to spend 10 grand or less. What would you recommend in terms of reliability?
I'd suggest asking for a pony.
PCA,
Sorry man, not trying to personally attack. I value your opinions and I even listen to your TA. Because sentiment matters. The chart reading, not so much.
Samsin - nice to make your acquaintance.
If I were Obama, I would come out with some honesty quickly to lower expectations.
Gavshire Hathaway | 01.02.09 - 1:37 pm | #
If I were part of the Obama team I'd push for vastly lower expectations even if it verged on dishonesty. It is no longer the number, it is the derivative and/or the delta. Additionally it is becoming increasingly harder to retain legitimacy unless you can bracket future expectations. We've had more than 2 years now of hoocoodnode and are desperate for people who at least look like they've got a clue. To remain on topic with ISM I'm pretty sure everyone here is aware even the most mechanistic datums are suject to some degree of manipulation. At this point there is a strong incentive to get all the bad news out ASAP. This report is so dismal that it would be difficult to have the next one come in even worse.
Corolla.
Cheap, reliable transportation.
blonderenge:
used hyundai, horrible resale value, great car for the money, used market only, go out 5 years for a great deal.
Corolla or Honda civic/accord. You'll get newer Toyota for your money but, Honda's are better cars. $10k cash might get a new Toyota or very close
"Cisco obviously walked but apparently a chinese competitor didnt and for the most part arent able to do much in emerging markets because of chinese competition."
--comrade rs
As long as you are willing to steal intellectual property, you could do the same thing with many high-tech products outside of the CE space.
It's going to be interesting to see what changes in the future when China and India have IP of their own to protect.
.
So, I need a "new" car. I'm thinking to spend 10 grand or less. What would you recommend in terms of reliability?
blonderengel | 01.02.09 - 1:43 pm | #
Consumer Reports does an auto issue every year - very thorough analysis. Head for your local library and look for the last one - it came out in April, I think.
Hands down, Toyota came out tops in the used car ratings in the '08. issue. I've had good experiences with CarMax - good online shopping, no-haggle pricing, easy to do business with. CarMax - Browse used cars and new cars online
Rob Dawg,
After the Jan 20 anticipation rally ends { which could well be prior to that date }, I'll agree with you. But there are profits to be had first - I won't apologize for taking them.
As long as you are willing to steal intellectual property, you could do the same thing with many high-tech products outside of the CE space.
It's going to be interesting to see what changes in the future when China and India have IP of their own to protect.
.
sm_landlord
Too funny. I was brought in as IT Director for a Chinese/American company. ALL of the software had been pirated. Not a huge company, but close to 500 million in sales.
I was SHOCKED!! The Chinese folk just didn't understand the problem.
2008 Toyota Corolla CE20 Photos
$10,499
866-774-0243
11.1 miles away Used | 26,592 miles | Gold | Automatic
Roswell, GA 30076 | Last updated 31-Dec-2008
sometimes the ads on CR are SO entertaining. The "free government money" one made me spit coffee. i though it was another Eric Lewis cartoon.
even more off topic, watched Brazil last night. what a fantastic movie. confess quickly, or you could damage your credit rating!
somewhat related:
my neighbor, a union ducting worker, say he hasnt worked in a month. the (murrieta)city cop down the street just got laid off.
I won't apologize for taking them.
Popeye
Neither will the brokers coming back to work Monday
Really takes some major balls along with stupidity to chase this rally here on light volume.
Do I here 950 ?
We could see money going into the markets despite lousy fundamentals.
Right. As inflation becomes more of a possibility, it makes sense to own productive assets. Usually that's stocks and real estate. Neither has good fundamentals but real estate is worse, so stocks aren't so awful as a long-term inflation hedge.
Commodities are also normally an inflation hedge but the incredibly wild swings of late make them much more questionable because you can't really know the fair value anymore.
feckless:
i love it when car hawkers say "no haggle pricing"
lol!
.
"Sorry man, not trying to personally attack. I value your opinions and I even listen to your TA. Because sentiment matters. The chart reading, not so much."
Have you considered that if enough people (or at least traders if you don't consider them people) put enough stock in chart reading that it eventually becomes or at least predicts sentiment? I think there's a Schrödinger's cat analogy to be made here somewhere...
accord, corolla or civic.
blonderengel writes:
May I tap into the collective wisdom of this crowd for a second, please?
My 1992 Eclipse just jumped timing--means, new engine. Not worth it on this POS.
So, I need a "new" car. I'm thinking to spend 10 grand or less. What would you recommend in terms of reliability?
I don't drive more than 20 miles each day, sometimes less--all city.
I want something that is less trouble prone than the Eclipse. I would have liked a used Smart, but they are not allowed on La roads yet. LOL! Too slow...
blonderengel | 01.02.09 - 1:43 pm | #
"Really takes some major balls along with stupidity to chase this rally here on light volume."
i think you are confusing stupidity with bravery.
i think you are confusing stupidity with bravery.
squeezed
No, I think you are
"Really takes some major balls along with stupidity to chase this rally here on light volume."
i think you are confusing stupidity with bravery.
I think you are both mistaking experience with intelligence - but, good luck.
"I think there's a Schrödinger's cat analogy to be made here somewhere..."
...also soro's reflexivity principle...
question is: which indicators are most chartists looking at?
another interesting question:
if you were long over the holidays, came back next monday and saw what you were up, would you take (at least some) profits given the news of the past week?
So, I need a "new" car. I'm thinking to spend 10 grand or less. What would you recommend in terms of reliability?
I don't drive more than 20 miles each day, sometimes less--all city.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.02.09 - 2:01 pm | #
Most recent Civic within your price range is what you are looking for. You might also consider arbitraging gas prices and getting a less efficient step up vehicle such as a low end Lexus/Acura.
Well, my position on the recent market action is clear. I will not be reticent to 'rub it in' or 'eat crow' next week, depending on what happens.
Popeye, glad to make your acquaintance as well.
C. tinman, a Monday sell-off is my bet too. Took some profits a bit early when the S&P was at 915. Regardless I don't think we're going to see another October to early November shellacking until the next round of crappy news.
Samsin,
Tinman was my most favorite movie. Trade well.
So, is the stock market reaction simply a Santa Rally?
We are up almost 6% in the last week trading - there is no reason for this, IMO, especially with all data showing just how bad things are.
Thoughts?
Rally created by OPM......
And our tax money which is, by definition by the system, strictly OPM.
Ciao
MS
"You might also consider arbitraging gas prices and getting a less efficient step up vehicle such as a low end Lexus/Acura."
I was just looking at an 01 Lexus LE for $8,999! Just not sure about how much any little repair might cost. They also have BMW and Porsche on the lot--all used, for under 10 grand, but I know from experience that any broken headlight will set me back more than $1,000.
sigh
what a way to start the new year...
"Regardless I don't think we're going to see another October to early November shellacking until the next round of crappy news."
agreed samsin.
of course, as stated above, Mr. O's the joker in the deck, at least for now...
Commodities are also normally an inflation hedge but the incredibly wild swings of late make them much more questionable because you can't really know the fair value anymore.
--Fair Economist
the incredibly wild swings of stocks of late make them much more questionable because you can't really know the fair value anymore.
It just gets better and better:
"It also unveiled guidelines for a new insurance program for troubled assets called the Asset Guarantee Program"
Yet another infusion of public money only this time it's insurance against the crap assets it's backing.
Ciao
MS
popeye, which tinman?
I've been happy with a Toyota Echo as basic transportation.
Gavshire Hathaway, others:
Is anyone using SDS for the contra trend? With timing always a mystery, it seems the leveraged shorts have their pitfalls. What vehicles do you recommend?
(sorry for the auto pun)
Re: Car Buying
Highly recommend looking at the Edmunds Car Spaces "Prices Paid" threads if you are buying a new car. This will give you a good idea of what the "street" price is.
Otherwise, everyone else has already suggested low-end Honda or Toyota. We had a 2003 Elantra that my wife thought was nice as well (until her parents borrowed it and totaled it). I'm not sure how these are used, as everyone seems to like these cars because of their nice warranty.
"Well, my position on the recent market action is clear. I will not be reticent to 'rub it in' or 'eat crow' next week, depending on what happens."
For the record, I closed out my long ultraETFs at SPX 920. My only remaining long positions are some Hail Mary index calls that I bought for my inner gambler as an early Christmas present. That said, if we get a swift downdraft correction of ~5%, I might be inclined to wade back in on the long side with a tight stop.
In short, I don't think we're in imminent danger of falling off a cliff (at least for the next couple of weeks). But I'm just smart enough to know that I'm not very smart.