The first time that Lord Mandelson was sacked from government, it transpired that he'd lied on an application for a mortgage - so he's well qualified to deal with the present mess.
So the Brits will follow the American plan which was scrapped to follow the Brits plan which didnt work, so the Brits are trying what the Americans didnt, so if it works, the Americans will be said to be following the Brits but in reality only following themselves?
i say we stop injecting banks with cash and start injecting bankers with marinade. you country bumpkins can keep your chewy squirrels. bankers are veal-like. plus squirrels perform a useful ecological duty by burying all those nuts.
The toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.
Oh, I see ... It's not greed and ineptitude that are the problems ...
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
If the bank's unwillingness to lend is the problem, the only solution is for the government to do the lending directly.
Doc at the Radar Station | 01.03.09 - 9:40 am | #
Which is what I thought the original Brown plan was. The govt bought the banks.
Rather than separating the good assets from the bad assets, how about separating the good bankers from the bad bankers? Unless, of course, they're inseparable -- two halves of the same debased coin.
Gerkinov, I think the UK government capitalized the banks by buying preferred shares, but they don't have any voting rights. They don't set policies at the banks, they just own part of them.
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
yeah, i'm not strongly pushing the idea that there will be no more bubbles. i do think that all this injecting and detoxifying is going to have long term consequences. i'll suggest that the next series of bubbles that we'll blow in the distant future(50yrs) will be smaller than our last bubble.
Has anyone ever went to borrow money and the bank just said, "we're out of money."
Not that there was any problem, just that they couldn't locate any more money. That they'd already reduced their deposit base to it's limits and they didn't want to correspond on any loans so that they were just "out" for the time being?
No? Then there's the problem.
Like politicians, bankers are the only group of market actors that can always seem to scare up more money than they ought to have at their disposal at any given time.
Can shortsighted greed be kept in check?
Generalisimo Elect Gerkinov | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:07 am |
maybe it can. maybe it cannot. at some point though won't the scale of future bubbles strain the monetary system to the breaking point? never mind ecological limits for now.
the scale of this last bubble -- with its siv's, cdo's, mbs's, what else? is impressive to say the least. i'm no expert but i can't imagine the financial chicanery that would be needed to blow a bigger bubble.
UK economy is even more dead man walking than US economy. The cornerstones being countless shopping malls, easy credit, selling overpriced shitty houses to each other and rampant financial speculation. Manufacturing base destroyed almost completely. Recipe for "28 days later" movie kind of disaster...
FFDIC - Thanks for the Wapo article last thread. I guess all this new planned borrowing is a nothingburger.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:06 am | #
MLM,
Thanks for bringing forward FFDIC's linky - here is the haloscan link to that post: HaloScan.com - Comments
Takeaway: outstanding marketable debt is ~$6.4 trillion, about 40% of which needs to be rolled in the next year, or ~$2.6 trillion - and new borrwings of ~$2 trillion but that is a moving target - so to carry it off the Treasury market needs to soak up ~$4.6 - ~$5.0 trillion in the next year (of which ~$2.0 - ~$2.4 trillion is an incremental increase in borrowing).
There will be more sequels to TARP than there were to Rocky. Watch. Rich is right....it's just money, and it does grow on trees, but only a few can grow the trees, and only a few can horde the fruit.
cr writes: The toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.
sort of a financial rehab, we'll dry out and sin no more
Takeaway: outstanding marketable debt is ~$6.4 trillion, about 40% of which needs to be rolled in the next year, or ~$2.6 trillion - and new borrwings of ~$2 trillion but that is a moving target - so to carry it off the Treasury market needs to soak up ~$4.6 - ~$5.0 trillion in the next year (of which ~$2.0 - ~$2.4 trillion is an incremental increase in borrowing).
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:29 am | #
Well and true, but will they roll it to a longer term? 10 year? 30 year? 100 year?
3) In the long run it will fail, because it is unsustainable.
Will | 01.03.09 - 9:49 am | #
It's a building tidal wave of inflation that's heading our way. They're sitting on it right now, but when they start circulating it, down goes the dollar, and us with it.
ce: Maybe we'll just print it and be done, screw the transactional nature of it all, just print, print, print. Me? I'm going to trade school to become a journeyman pressman.
"As evidence mounts that the £37 billion part-nationalisation last year has failed to keep credit flowing."
And in other news the earth continues to circle the sun. It bears repeating that there are three steps in the financial recovery program that cannot be skipped on the road to economic health: 1. Socializing the losses does not make them go away. 2. Part-nationalization is like a little bit pregnant. (UK or US.) 3. Liquidity cannot cure solvency.
And a little something for Broward from last night: timothy leary is my role model. Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.02.09 - 9:29 pm | # Timothy Leary's dead. No, no, no, no, He's outside looking in. Timothy Leary's dead. No, no, no, no, He's outside looking in. He'll fly his astral plane, Takes you trips around the bay, Brings you back the same day, Timothy Leary. Timothy Leary.
Along the coast you'll hear them boast About a light they say that shines so clear. So raise your glass, we'll drink a toast To the little man who sells you thrills along the pier.
He'll take you up, he'll bring you down, He'll plant your feet back firmly on the ground. He flies so high, he swoops so low, He knows exactly which way he's gonna go. Timothy Leary. Timothy Leary.
Obama says untemployment will hit 10% and elements of industrial production are at 1948 levels. Auto sales are in the tank. Who the heck is creditworthy enough to get a loan? This is such a classic example of pushing on a string. It will be UKistan and USAistan stumbling in to the new year.
ce: Maybe we'll just print it and be done, screw the transactional nature of it all, just print, print, print. Me? I'm going to trade school to become a journeyman pressman. Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 10:40 am | #
Comma zero zero zero comma zero zero zero decimal point enter.
We may actually see the perverse circumstance of a shortage of physical scrip to power the underground economy as the Fed cannot print and distribute the actual toilet paper to wipe this particular bum.
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep.
There are some important signals along the same lines coming from bond markets. The extremely high yields on corporate bonds have started to come down, indicating that investors no longer think they need extraordinary interest rates to compensate for lots of expected defaults.
And in credit markets, closely watched indicators of default risk such as the TED-spread, the swap spread and the price of credit default swaps have all relaxed considerably over the last few weeks.
I'm not agreeing with him. I just pointing out that it's out there.
the scale of this last bubble -- with its siv's, cdo's, mbs's, what else? is impressive to say the least. i'm no expert but i can't imagine the financial chicanery that would be needed to blow a bigger bubble.
sneering nihilist | 01.03.09 - 10:18 am | #
Agreed ... there'll be other bubbles, but not like this for a century or so.
Morocco Bama writes:
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep.
isnt it funny that in every Investor Prospect is the Disclaimer " past performance is NO indication to the future"?? and yet the bozzo experts claim historical it has to be a recovery soon???
With respect to bond guy's comment on the last thread - my understanding is that they are not talking about spreading it over a few years. That's the issue. They are trying not to end up in a too little / too late situation. (This is why they are looking for shovel-ready projects.)
I agree that they aren't going to have much choice but to issue longer-term debt to get this done, and at greater expense.
Paulson dumped his original plan in favour of the first British plan because his original plan didn't work. Now the Brits have dumped their first plan that has since been adopted by Paulson because it didn't work in the UK, and are now going to use Paulson's original plan which failed in the US.
well as i said to a friend " these guys who believed the sun orbits the earth where sure not stupid, just running on wrong theories", same goes for the "conventionel wisdom experts".. they arent stupid either but still wrong.. mises and marx rule !!
And in credit markets, closely watched indicators of default risk such as the TED-spread, the swap spread and the price of credit default swaps have all relaxed considerably over the last few weeks.
Two issues that I see with those observations:
Using the medical metaphor, the economy is a patient on a heart/lung machine (the Fed alphabet soup) - now we marvel at the regular respiration and pulse of the patient.
The map is not the territory - these financial indicators are not the real economy - and that is where the action is and is going to be.
The focus on indicators while ignoring the real economy seems like making the dashboard lights go green while the engine is still seizing up...finance is not the engine of the economy. That illusion is one of the major contributors to our current condition.
unlike other bubbles e.g. telecom which at least left real assets in its wake; this bubble was all about building "level 3 assets". Those wonderful assets that allowed both parties to the same trade to show a profit. That "make believe " profit was monetized and found its way through the system- higher tax payments. consumer spending etc. Now that it has blown up we have exactly nothing.
## Tell them to stick with it, sooner or later everyone will be right.
Sure, I guess if we apply Quantum Physics, if enough people believe it, and focus enough of their energy upon it, it will recover.
However, given that same logic, we can conclude that CR and Tanta are responsible for this current malaise...he's likened to the flapping of a butterfly's wings somewhere in the skies over South America.
so instead of fixing this wich cant work they should divert the resources to something new!! but that means the digged in "Parasites that decide"have to change wich would be too much to ask...
ergo Revolution will take place..
my guess short after Hyperinflation knocks on the door..
UK economy is even more dead man walking than US economy. The cornerstones being countless shopping malls, easy credit, selling overpriced shitty houses to each other and rampant financial speculation. Manufacturing base destroyed almost completely. supafly73 | 01.03.09 - 10:19 am | #
Retail square feet per person: US 20.2 UK 2.5
Methinks you exagerate. UK has problems but don't make them worse than thery are.
"When Leary arrived in prison, he was given psychological tests that were used to assign inmates to appropriate work details. Having designed many of the tests himself...,Leary answered them in such a way that he seemed to be a very conforming, conventional person... Leary was assigned to work as a gardener in a lower security prison, and in September 1970 he escaped"
You can't write fiction like that.
Leary was awesome.
There was a plan and it should have been the Swedish plan. The banks (those that are unable to function without recourse to all the special facilities) need to be nationalized. Certain class of creditors and investors get wiped out, the good assets plus new capital is put into a new bank which are then resold to the public via an IPO, that money is taken to capitalize the bad bank which houses all the crap.
Crisis over lets get back to allowing the free market to work. I believe that this crisis is being perpetuated by free market believers who have resisted a nationalization of the banking system. Since, clearly a Darwinian free market solution is not possible they have essentially entered into Faustian bargain. Essentially selling the free market principles in small installments.
However, given that same logic, we can conclude that CR and Tanta are responsible for this current malaise...
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:03 am | #
I have it on good authority that this is the case and therefore must be true. (please be sensitive to the sarcasm for all my comments today)
i really want to know how bb plans to avoid rampant inflation..
all this bailout money will hit the street when the supply is really low from the deflation squezze...
it has to be ugly..
Yoringe | 01.03.09 - 11:09 am | #
bb plans to withdraw as he goes along, at least that's what I heard.
But blonderengel has it right, it's from a previous thread toward the bottom, but it's about a return of capital to its source. Like some have said, wiping out all but the elite.
And this is nothing new. But it is certainly interesting as a participant on the suffering end. And yakking about it with other semi-enlightened folk is too, for as long as they allow it.
Now I get it, CR was not going up to hills just for fun. Even take "fun" photos to hide his real intentions.
He is little by little stocking up food, guns, ammo and medicine up there into his favorite CAVE while we continuosly yap yap about "recession or depression already?" or "looky, that meter just went totally red. Way cool!"
CR is one sneaky BASTARD! Maybe even news about Tanta being dead are not entirely true
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am | #
What is the dollar amount of the long bond that has been sold recently at these rates? Dunno, but that seems relevant to assessing the ease with which the next $2 T (the new "2 large") can be blithely rolled from short term borrowing to long term borrowing...
...the toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.....
SIV of the govt. Govt copying bankrput tactic of the useless bankers!!
Volker the Viking writes:
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am | #
genau! Let's see what the weasels do next. It may well work and for quite a long while (relevant term alert). But not for a very long while.
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 11:17 am | #
all of this money being borrowed is being invested right? okay, so the cost of money is low right now. that does not mean that the investment the borrowed money gets plowed into will return more than that cost.
if i'm borrowing money at 1% but my investments return less than 1% i'm f'd pretty quick. right?
ce: Have you ever been a victim of Three Card Monte?
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 11:22 am | #
Nope, and also never went for the shell game - viz definition number 4 for gaff - knew some carnies once upon a time...
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/gaff's&
Comrade NSA: There's another street game where you take three cups and put a small rubber ball under one. It may help you answer your question.
Imagine someone high up from where you are behind some glassed in enclosure. This person holds up both hands making two fists with the pinky finger extended. This person wiggles the pinky.
And that is how easy it is to control the masses. Helpful?
Looking ahead it occurred to me that 2008 was the equivalent of 1929...and given the dislocations and distorted pricing signal mechanism it is not a stretch to see 2009 as 1930, 2010 as 1931 and so on....anyway, this is what I will be telling people who screw up the courage to ask my opinion about the future...and I thought I could not get any more unpopular. Gobsmackery.
Both the UK plan and the original Paulson plan fail because they attempt to shield uninsured bank debtholders from loss. That debt is bad, like so much debt currently floating around, and there's no escaping reality, which is why all attempts so far have failed. The government can, of course, throw away taxpayer money unnecessarily to benefit these (mostly wealthy) bondholders; but the scale of this particular problem is so enormous even the governments will shudder under the burden if Paulson/Geithner and Darling/Mandelson manage to make them bear it.
The honest and effective solution is to seize the banks, create a good bank/ bad bank setup, and convert an appropriate amount of uninsured debt into bad bank equity. The bad bank should carry no debt, only equity, tiered as necessary to deal with debt priority. Banks would be freed of onerous and indeterminate debt and the taxpayer cost held to a minimum.
Of course this is the Swedish model all the sensible folks have been calling for since the word go and in addition to all the various corruption influences pushing them to rob the taxpayers for bank owners, managers, and creditors TPTB would also have to acknowledge they were wrong in rejecting it months ago. So I'm not holding my breath.
The Only thing to kill America is from inside. -- John Rutledge
[I agree! And evildoers in power have done the dirty deed.]
"The length and severity of depressions depend partly on the magnitude of the 'real' maladjustments, which developed during the preceding boom and partly on the aggravating monetary and credit conditions." -- Gotfried Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, 1937
Best article I have read to date on Freddie & Fannie, some great descriptors in here: "War of the Roses", "holy war", "going Noriega" (hat tip naked capitalism):
I can see Hank and Ben late in the night struggling with events.
BB: "Hey Hank, I've got it! We blame Bill & Doris." HP: "Why would we do that? They're the ones that got it right." BB: "Exactly. While the rest of us were here claiming hoocoodanode they did know and didn't do anything except blog. It's their fault." HP: "You may be on to something. The public is going to be scrambling for someone to blame and we both know is ain't gonna be us." BB: "It isn't like nobody read my game plan. We've so far successfully managed perception with no regard to reality. This is just another misdirection." HP: "okay, this will work. Let's get Shelia jawboning on it and see if George has had enough anti-depressants to pull this off without crying." BB: "If this sucker's goning down lets make sure we've bailed ahead of time. Oh wait, I'm still gonna be here... damn." HP: "Calm down you know I'm always good for a few tax free Krugerrands if you need an extended overseas vacation." BB: "Thanky Hanky, mighty nice to hear you've squirreled away some of the $750 mill you converted personally but I was thinking more about hiking the Desert Southwest. Did you see those pictures? Wow" HP: "Don't remind me, half the Fed staff is booking flights to Tempe. Worst office disruption since I had to clamp down those stupid UberNerd⢠lapel pins and don't even get me started on PigWearâ¢."
OT, but in the past we have wondered whether the government was refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now that oil prices have fallen. It turns out that they have not been doing so, due to meddling by congress. However, it seems that they have belatedly started filling 'er up again now that a law has expired at the end or 2008.
Congressional meddling in the SPR from Wikipedia (and prices were...higher):
On May 13, 2008, the United States Senate and House of Representatives voted nearly unanimously to temporarily suspend the 70,000 barrel per day shipment of petroleum to the nation's emergency reserve[2]. A temporary halt to SPR stockpiling is hoped to increase oil supplies and thereby reduce the cost of oil, although analysts are divided on whether it will have a meaningful effect to consumers[3]. Shipments to the Strategic Oil Reserve would resume at the end of 2008. On May 16, 2008, the Department of Energy announced it was canceling oil shipments into the SPR beginning in July 2008 when the current purchase contract expires.[4] On May 19, 2008, the White House signaled President Bush's intent to sign the legislation passed by the Congress.[5] Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
i really want to know how bb plans to avoid rampant inflation..
Probably the same way he avoided a deflationary depression. First, deny it's a possibility. Second, enact ineffective or even counterproductive countermeasures. Third, be shocked when it happens.
citizen energyecon writes:
"What is the dollar amount of the long bond that has been sold recently at these rates? Dunno, but that seems relevant to assessing the ease with which the next $2 T (the new "2 large") can be blithely rolled from short term borrowing to long term borrowing..."
You are correct in pointing out that most borrowing is at the front of the curve. I.e., T-Bills, 2-,3-,5-year notes. Yes, this poses extension risks if there was a bond market crash.
But if the government is buying toxic assets, they should not extend to long maturities in order to fund them. Very simply, you do not borrow at 30-years fixed to fund a position in 5-year floating mortgages.
And keep in mind that foreign central banks (FCBs) are a major buyer of Treasury products. To a very large extent, the Treasury and the FCB's just sit down and have a quiet chat over drinks and decide what the funding profile will be like. If they want T-Bills, they get T-Bills. If they want 2-years, they get 2-years. If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct.
Fair Economist writes:
Both the UK plan and the original Paulson plan fail because they attempt to shield uninsured bank debtholders from loss. That debt is bad, like so much debt currently floating around, and there's no escaping reality, which is why all attempts so far have failed. The government can, of course, throw away taxpayer money unnecessarily to benefit these (mostly wealthy) bondholders;
Are you sure that's not the plan in the first place?
maybe it can. maybe it cannot. at some point though won't the scale of future bubbles strain the monetary system to the breaking point? never mind ecological limits for now.
If capital is badly allocated,
if market players are not productive because they keep on getting money without having to work effectively,
if there is a lack of confidence in transactions,
if money keeps on producing stuff we wont be needing in the future,
if no money goes into the sectors that need to be financed for our ageing population
the economy will implode.
Who knows how long it will take? The sure thing is we're heading that way.
If they want T-Bills, they get T-Bills. If they want 2-years, they get 2-years. If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct.
bond guy | 01.03.09 - 11:40 am | #
Russia gas row disruption spreads, no talks in sight
KIEV/MOSCOW (Reuters) Russian gas flows to four European Union countries were below normal levels on Saturday after Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine in a pricing row, and there were no talks in sight to resolve the dispute.
Temperatures were below zero overnight in Europe, and Bulgaria's Bulgargaz joined energy firms in Poland, Romania and Hungary in saying they had noted falls in supply, though flows to Europe's biggest economy, Germany, were not affected. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
Doc at the Radar Station | 01.03.09 - 9:59 am | #
Yes, they are lending but only to people with good credit. I am closing on a refi this Monday: 30 yr. conv at 4.375%
Ukraine warns EU serious gas shortages possible
KIEV, Ukraine A senior Ukrainian official says European consumers will see serious natural gas shortages in only two weeks if Moscow and Kiev don't solve their dispute over gas supplies.
Bohdan Sokolovsky's statement raises the stakes in an escalating row between the two neighbors.
Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on New Year's Day after the two countries failed to resolve payment issues or agree on a price contract for 2009.
Most Russian gas bound for Europe travels through Ukraine.
Sokolovsky said Saturday even though Ukraine will continue shipping Russian gas intended for Europe, disruptions in supplies will occur in the next 10 to 15 days if Ukraine's gas is not shipped along with it.
He said the pipelines require a minimum amount of gas to avoid an automatic shutdown. (This is what happened with motor gasoline in the southeast USA after the two hurricanes shut down refining and transport this summer) Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Q Have we learned anything from past economic cycles?
A No, and we have so much information today and yet, we are so disconnected.
...
Q Does this mean you are not satisfied with the solutions tabled so far?
A Absolutely, I never underestimate the stupidity of mankind, which is based on greed and fear and what they do when they are afraid or too greedy. When the emotions rule, you can be sure it will lead to some form of stupidity of one form or another. The idea of saving GM [General Motors Corp.] is the dumbest thing in the world. Let it go bankrupt, let it go renegotiate its wages and put them on the comparable level paid by its competitors. What we need is common sense, logic, rationality, putting aside politics and fighting the common enemy. What worries me is the proroguing of Parliament and losing two months to tackle the problems. I've been trying to tell the politicians for Christ's sake, don't do something politically stupid. This is economic war!
Tells it like it is.
For the uninitiated, 'proroguing parliament' means that Haitian hotty Michelle Jean gets to tell Canadians they can't throw Harper out on his ass.
When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work.
While I have a solid understanding of financial statements, I'm not terribly knowledgeable on economics. So I'll listen to anyone for a better understanding. So far, what I'm hearing from most bulls is a version of 'equities will go up because they're so low'.
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
You want decisions to be made on facts? What a wierdo. The Fed of course understands that you get better decisions by denying critical facts to the public.
"Has anyone ever went to borrow money and the bank just said, "we're out of money."
Well, yes, but not at a bank. There are a lot of other lenders and investors who have been saying this over the past year, especially since around September.
Sometimes they mean "we've used up all of our allocation for this market segment, come see us in three months". Other times, they mean "our investors are withdrawing too much money and we can't get into anything new". Worse, they might mean "We've lost too much money and we need all the liquidity we can get."
A little more from eco's link [Jarislowsky interview in the Financial Post]:
Q. Are you saying we need to fight the crisis with inflation?
A. Unfortunately, you have to create inflation to get rid of the debt. The only way to get housing to go up again is through inflation, by reducing the value of the mortgages. The only way to get the consumer back purchasing things is to get rid of their debts and that can only be done through inflation. I'm not somebody who believes in inflation. I think it's an awful thing, but there's no alternative.
Ive heard some people fretting that were about to re-enter a time when economic conditions make cities so full of crime that they are nearly unlivable. How do we avoid that sort of thing happening again like it did for a while there in the 1970s?
Living in a big city myself (DC), I've been thinking a lot about the economy's social consequence on crime. My area is supposedly gentrifying, but there's significant crime. I'm getting real worried as the economy deteriorates, it could get significantly worse.
Any other thoughts on future crime consequences on the economy?
"Morocco Bama writes:
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep."
While I do agree with you that their explanation of causation is pretty weak, they could still be right: the recovery might start at the end of 2009.
For those of us who believe we have a regular recession superimposed on a collapsing set of asset bubbles, the end of 2009 doesn't sound that strange. People who still have jobs will be saving. People with auto loans will be paying them off an not getting a new car for a while (for those of you with leases, um, try to extend for a year). Lots of prices will be coming down.
Of course, most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.
The Spotted dick Paulson plan... FFDIC | 01.03.09 - 12:09 pm | # I always thought that the name was a referring the clam Columbus's brought back to Europe in an earleir round of globalization.
But the economy will no longer be contracting, and the recession that started in December 2007 will end at 18 or 21 months of age. The previous record holders, severe recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, each lasted 16 months. Forecasters See Fast Recovery; Others Doubt Their Eyesight - NY Times
I think that consumers are certainly in a state of shock right now, but their behavior is fundamentally rational, said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the United States Chamber of Commerce. They want to work, they want to make money and they want to spend that money. Above all they are resilient. They lick their wounds and with some help from government, they start back again and we come out of this quickl
I think The Paulson Plan is an annuity stream from the Treasury to failing banks. I don't think they have any end in mind for these bailout funds. This is going to prevent healthy banks with sound business practices from growing and taking the place of the sick banks. Failure is rewarded. The failed banks will have to continue their practices and healthy banks that want a federally guaranteed income stream will have to imitate the business practices of the failed institutions.
Paulson's plan is based on Wall St's business model; collect fees and distribute bonuses. I don't think Paulson understands how productive businesses operate.
--
"Someday, and that day may never come, I hope to be as smart as Jas."
Comrade Volker the Viking,
That is because I recognized a long time ago that I was a dope (holding propaganda beliefs without thorough examination) in the areas of economics, investments and politics in more ways than one and have been trying hard to be a lesser dope ever since.
Paulson's plan is based on Wall St's business model; collect fees and distribute bonuses. I don't think Paulson understands how productive businesses operate.
lama | 01.03.09 - 12:21 pm | #
US Government bailout now totals about $8.5 trillion
If we figure the government paid $8.5 trillion for bailed out assets worth 1/4 less than was actually paid, i.e., that the government got stuff worth about $6.38 trillion for its $8.5 trillion investment, which is perhaps a charitable assumption, since there is really no way to know what most of the trash was/is worth because nobody was buying
it means about $2.13 trillion of the dollars printed to buy these assets represent nothing, except our ability to print dollars. Or, in the context of the overall economy, we printed phantom dollars amounting to about 15% of the 2008 GDP.
Gulf Cooperation Council leaders yesterday concluded their 29th annual summit meeting in Muscat, Oman with a final approval for the creation of a single currency for the six-nation economic bloc, still targeted for 2010.
Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the GCC and boasts substantial gold reserves. But whether gold will be included in the currency basket has not yet been decided.
Of course, most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.
some investor guy | 01.03.09 - 12:15 pm | #
Anonymous writes:
Gulf Cooperation Council leaders yesterday concluded their 29th annual summit meeting in Muscat, Oman with a final approval for the creation of a single currency for the six-nation economic bloc, still targeted for 2010.
Been hearing this for about a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.
If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct. bond guy | 01.03.09 - 11:40 am | #
I agree bond guy. I don't think FCB's will be the first to provide the hoocoodanode moment. If I'm remembering my figures right, we can expect FCB's to recycle $800 billion of CAD (give or take a billion of FDI here or there) into Treasurys this year. But we've got the new administration talking about borrowing at least twice that. So it seems to me the real question is where the rest of the money comes from, and what we get as unintended consequences (squeezing out private borrowers?). That may be more likely to provided the hoocoodanode.
"So it seems to me the real question is where the rest of the money comes from, and what we get as unintended consequences (squeezing out private borrowers?)"
US Treasuries are now acting like giant black hole, sucking in all the loose cash into it from US economy as "safe haven". That is a real bad sign.
I don't think US government is able to redistribute that money effectively enough to kickstart the economy, especially on top of collapsing tax revenues on all levels and with de facto plutocracy rule. Main street is left with nothing.
Money distribution inside economy gone totally fubar.
But you have to close your eyes and say, "I do believe in ceteris paribus" - and if that holds, there you go! citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:31 pm | #
Take a look at the countries that make up the lion's share of the CAD (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia). What have they done since this started -- scrambled like crazy to try to maintain the status quo, because the alternative is politically unpalatable in the extreme. And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
I bet Barter makes a comeback. That did not work out so well last time. A clearinghouse like ebay to match up services for a percentage. Only problem was everyone padded the bill.
lama says: "I think The Paulson Plan is an annuity stream from the Treasury to failing banks."
I agree. And its this kind of high-handed crap that the FreeMarket (tm) decides. Every. Damn. Time. Funny how it became an ideology. And the scariest and most depressing part is that this was probably not a conspiracy, in total, but rather just the way human nature works.
A person's view changes as they increase in wealth, until they realize that they are nature's winners and those with less money are just whiny, grasping usurpers. This phenomenon is too weird to believe unless you've seen it, which is probably why the world endlessly cycles through disasters.
It's a building tidal wave of inflation that's heading our way. They're sitting on it right now, but when they start circulating it, down goes the dollar, and us with it.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:35 am | #
this seems simple enough to me, and I think it's what bankers have done throughout history.
withholding large amounts of cash and drying up credit deflates assets and results in foreclosures etc, which become owned by the banks. pain and suffering, lots of unemployment, widespread bankruptcy of businesses. banks continue to hold until prices are low enough we call it a depression. banks buy up distressed assets. banks release the floodgates and we're suddenly awash in credit to buy back assets from the banks. asset prices inflate. the bank buys low, then sells high.
All us little Atlases will Shrug? lawyerliz | 01.03.09 - 12:31 pm | #
Parallel economy. Parallel underground economy. Parallel underground invatation only economy that has withdrawn its consent of the governed. The people with the guns in power have completely lost sight of that simple concept. This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no.
Take a look at the countries that make up the lion's share of the CAD (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia). What have they done since this started -- scrambled like crazy to try to maintain the status quo, because the alternative is politically unpalatable in the extreme. And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | #
Who was it that said, "If you owe a hundred dollars, it's your problem, but if you owe a million dollars, it's the bank's problem"?
DO NOT DRINK OR COOK USING YOUR TAPWATER! Operation Floodgate has been put into effect. A drug cocktail consisting of valium, prozac, oxycontin, ectasy and a dozen experimental bio pharms has been released. The desired effect will be to increase consumerism and debt loads of the American citizens by making us shuffle footed, zombies gravitating to Wal-Marts.
Martin Regalia, chief economist at the United States Chamber of Commerce. They want to work, they want to make money and they want to spend that money. Above all they are resilient.
unlike all those dead beats during the great depression- who didn't want to work, make money or spend it. I get it now !!!
"....most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too [will any be defined as "too big to fail"? Of course.]. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.....AND most of the job losses..."
Lets also not forget the states and smaller municipal failures and many under-funded pension plans.....
All of this the FedGov will backstop?
It seems the FedGov has a serious cash-flow problem in itself. Too many of its supporters are either "not playing", moving off-shore, or have nothing left to give........
We're only 175 pages into this 1000 page version of "Atlas Shrugged, 2008"
Another poster claimed deep
recessions last 18-21 months
or so. Weren't they still denying
recession in mid 2008 ? Then
conveniently declared it started
in December of 2007, therefore
it must almost be over now. Didn't
we have 3% + GDP growth in the
2nd qtr of 2008 ?
@ meta- re: "cost of land delta"... What layer of the business are you in? hong konger | 01.03.09 - 12:55 pm | #
I don't even see the applicability. The cost of the retail square footage UK v US doesn't have any effect on the savings to be realized when the ratio is 8:1. Tthe US could lose 2.5 sq ft per person and still be 7 times more over retailed vice UK whereas 2.5 sq ft per person in the UK is the entirety of their retail space.
JR(Very Good) writes: \tAnd the scariest and most depressing part is that this was probably not a conspiracy, in total, but rather just the way human nature works.
A person's view changes as they increase in wealth, until they realize that they are nature's winners and those with less money are just whiny, grasping usurpers. This phenomenon is too weird to believe unless you've seen it, which is probably why the world endlessly cycles through disasters. JR | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | # Read Chomsky. He doesn't believe in conspiracy either. Rather - to succeed in those "areas" you have to already have incorporated the values necessary to perform and exist in that realm.
hong konger(Good) writes: What layer of the business are you in? architect and former hong konger myself. lived on castle road (wai sing doe, above caine rd) for 3 years.
"Temperatures were below zero overnight in Europe"
Be careful about that temperature figure - in the past, Americans have drawn false conclusions when reading that a temperature is under zero - in the entire world, apart from the U.S., under zero means 0° C, or the freezing point of water.
And these days, a lot of English language writers aren't even aware of Fahrenheit, except as an obsolete and strange system formerly used by their parents or grandparents.
Americans often have little idea how exceptional their society is - basically no one else on the planet even knows what a yard or pound is, or how many ounces are in a pint - which was confusing enough even before the UK finally went metric.
Sure, Jarislowsky is not stupid. He's rich. He has a Harvard MBA, just like Bush and Paulson. Perhaps a better word is wrong-headed. He's theoretically correct but his remedy, which he admits he hates, is ridiculous and morally wrong.
CR, I hope you won't mind some amateur sociology.
Making the bed this morning, I noticed a tear in one of the sheets. I thought, "I can patch that" and then mentally stepped back in surprise--I don't patch stuff. At least, I haven't since I was a starving grad student.
Question for most of you, I'm curious...what are you doing differently now than you were this time last year, in terms of spending?
If you're holing up on a farm off the grid and stockpiling ammo, ok, but please don't riff on that. This question is aimed more at the average CR reader. I'm curious about the more subtle changes.
If you're holing up on a farm off the grid and stockpiling ammo, ok, but please don't riff on that. This question is aimed more at the average CR reader. I'm curious about the more subtle changes.
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:24 pm | #
This might put me in the "crazy paranoid" camp, but I live in a marginal neighborhood in Chicago, and I just got a taser, and a home security system which includes a panic button that calls the police if I press it (such as while moving from my car to my home.)
As far as spending, I was already pretty frugal, but yeah, I am getting even cheaper. I used to spend probably a couple of hundred a month going out to eat; that is probably down to 50 bucks. And in general, where I used to think twice before buying stuff, I now think three or four times.
This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:45 pm | #
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
....this past week we had an enormous amount of looky-loo traffic. More walk-in traffic this past week than during the past two months. Most looking for small lots (1.25 acres - thereby allowing a well) and ANY kind of structure.
There's a worry out there - ppl are looking for cheap land with sun & water.
Rob Dawg(Good) writes: \t The cost of the retail square footage UK v US doesn't have any effect on the savings to be realized when the ratio is 8:1. Tthe US could lose 2.5 sq ft per person and still be 7 times more over retailed vice UK whereas 2.5 sq ft per person in the UK is the entirety of their retail space. yes but aren't you looking at the wrong metric? if one were to consider the impact of declining retail on two different economies why look at sq. ft? development patterns are not comparable. my point was simply that the costs to buy the land, build, have employees, and be taxed are all more important than total sq. ft. I didn't say s.f. was irrelevant.
Minimal spending. No big ticket item buys until I see it at 80% off. 50 less roundtrip business trips thruout US. 20K miles less driven.
I see no need for stuff and more need for simple. Xmas spending down 60%..craigslist is always first look if anything needed.
Less consumerism...Plus a plan on putting up a couple websites to push people towards no debt solutions and not banking with any bailout banks...working on sites now....
I'm now in enemy of the fed....
They are screwing savers while rewarding pigs..big no no in my book...
Jes writes:
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:35 pm | #
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
"To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?"
All I know is that I got a call from one of my credit card companies the other day - practically begging me spend money on their card. I'm one of those deadbeats that doesn't carry a balance, so I guess they are just hoping for the fee income. I have no idea what my credit score is, but it's probably pretty OK.
The bottom line of the situation is a huge short volatility trade by the US Government.
The US Government has replaced all the dummies who attempted to capitalized on short term arbitrage situations and killed themselves. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve holds short volatility bets that were placed during a period of low volatility. For these bets to pay off at anywhere near par, volatility will have to decline to some reasonable relationship to volatility when the bets were placed.
Given that future volatility is unknown and the US Government has gone all-in; my working thesis is to trade the TBT and the TLT against the US Government.
The weakness of my strategy is I have no idea when the weakness of my opponent, the US Treasury, will be discovered. Thus, I am willing to assume short term losses to discover if my trade location vs. the 10 year note is defendable.
My assumption is that with rates at current levels AND with the context of larger players (banks & hedge funds) demanding safety, my trade location in the TBT's of 36 area is good. However, I thought it was good in the 42 area. That punch in the nose cost me $3,500...
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:35 pm | #
So what? Me and my frightened neighbors are well armed, mostly military veterans and willing to defend our homes. Not with flint and steel, just organization and ammo.
Question for most of you, I'm curious...what are you doing differently now than you were this time last year, in terms of spending?
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:24 pm | #
nothing really. live in a low-cost area in the upper midwest, single and I rent. save ~40% of income, 70% of that is in cash/checking/MMA for now. only thing I'm newly considering is paying off student loan debt (under 20k). am also glad I'm not graduating from an expensive PhD into this economy instead, as I would have been had I not started reading "fringe" blogs circa 2005.
Jes,
you would be surprised..
Some of us over 30 year old white collared boys have taken out 300lb boars with 44 mags, a big muley with a 30.30 or can catch more lobster snorkeling than most scuba divers...
painting a picture of a landscape is hard to do at night...I believe thier are all types here...such is blogging and the internet
I don't know if meta is defending, explaining or attacking, but, in any case, for a developer/banker, this would be a rationale to explain-away the problems you discuss so frequently on your blog.
It's a fairly sophisticated type of analysis, though (excluding how sloppy it is), which is why I asked the question.
I have my own thoughts on using deltas in improvement formation, but, I'll defer to meta since you asked him directly and I don't know what he's driving at exactly as we may use these concepts in different ways.
This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:45 pm | #
I'm seeing it so far in little things. Shifting to internet purchases to avoid sales taxes. Tax consequence questions being asked as part of my proposals. Professionals not working as hard for the last dollar when half gets taken away. Off the books transactions. I also hear my friends talking about investing anywhere except California. But most of what I hear is about the current fiscal crisis that is up to $45 billion. There is no willingness to adsorb our fair share. And it isn't just this massive crushing debt being placed on us, it is the breaking of the social compacts. I've been paying CA taxes for a quarter century in part because I supported the idea of free higher education. This years' free education at UCLA is costing $17k. Next year is going to be much much more. Break the compacts and you lose the consent of the governed. What are they gonna do? Recall the National Guard from the 'Stan, give them live ammo and explain to them that their new jobs are to enforce tax confiscation because their old jobs are gone anyway? Which way do you think they'd point those guns?
well if the system was actually open about what they were really doing I think people would be able to stomach these things. It's not, and has never been, about credit....it's about solvency.
Truly we would be able to have a legitimate recovery if the system allowed itself to take the losses and fessed up to it's gorging of itself for those all important fee collection.
This will need to be done several more times just this year alone.
WARRI, Nigeria (AP) - An oil pipeline was blown up with dynamite in Nigeria's restive south, a military official said Saturday. Regional army chief Brig. Gen. Wuyep Rimtip said he did not know how severe the damage was or if there were any casualties as a result of the blast late Friday in Delta...
Re medical records - there's a surprising amount of manual labor. For instance, it might cost $22/claim for processing alone. Also, an automated standardized metric makes fraud detection easier.
Like click- fraud, there are incentives for most parties to look the other way, or misrepresent the true level of fraud.
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said an economic recovery may not begin until next year and that policy makers have the scope to cut interest rates if inflation slows further.
The economic outlook is unusually uncertain, Papademos said in an interview with Germanys WirtschaftsWoche magazine published today. It is quite possible that the recovery will not start until the beginning of 2010.
Having reduced their key interest rate by 175 basis points since early October to 2.5 percent, ECB policy makers enter the new year under pressure to cut more deeply amid Europes first recession in 15 years. Retail sales fell for a seventh month in December, manufacturing shrank at a record pace and lending to the private sector stagnated, reports showed this past week.
The economy may be even weaker in 2009 than the ECBs prediction of last month for a contraction of about 0.5 percent, Papademos said. The Frankfurt-based central bank will act appropriately and has room to do so if the slowdown threatens price stability, which the ECB defines as inflation just below 2 percent in the medium term, he said.
mock turtle: respecting your view, on what basis do you think your idea will work? How could it possibly be that banks/banking at all is 1) necessary, 2) prudent, 3) possible?
What are they gonna do? Recall the National Guard from the 'Stan, give them live ammo and explain to them that their new jobs are to enforce tax confiscation because their old jobs are gone anyway? Which way do you think they'd point those guns?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 1:48 pm | #
Remember Kent State? Most cops on the job now are too young to have learned that lesson. I know first-hand that cops behave like good soldiers. They follow orders and they don't challenge authority. There are some 800,000 cops in the U.S., all trained to respond to conflict with force.
Cops don't have a lot of conflict resolution skills in their toolbag. If civil protest breaks out, it will require uncommon leadership on both sides not to escalate into a dangerous situation.
The 8-1 ratio of retail space between the US and the UK is obviously not an apples to apples comparison because land is much cheaper in the US, due to lower population density and laxer greenbelting policies. However, I don't think there's any way the differences in land availability and use can explain that kind of difference. Crudely, you'd expect total expenditures on retail space to be similar and there's no way the price difference is 8-1.
While European shops are certainly more crowded than US shops I've never had a problem finding or buying stuff in Europe due to small shops and I've travelled there quite a bit. Shop hours can a problem, especially for a traveller and especially in Germany, but that's an unrelated problem.
Regarding the question of how long this will take. naked capitalism referenced a paper by Reinhart & Rogoff a couple days ago. Trough to peak unemployment for the average financial crisis is 4.8 years. Average peak to trough home price declines are 6 years. Peak to trough equity price declines are 3.4 years. And average peak to trough real per capita GDP declines are 1.9 years.
Of course, those are averages and this crisis would look to be global and therefore considerably worse than average.
I still see a bunch of folks driving around in expensive cars they can't possibly be paying for since they don't seem to have jobs. That bubble hasn't even burst yet, and the artists formerly known as the Big Three expect to sell new ones? Let's face it, they're going to give those cars away at the taxpayers' expense. There's not going to be a revolution in this country...instead, there's going to be a civil war. Case in point, my brother, who has never owned a gun in his life, and has only shot one once, or twice, went out and bought one when he was certain Obama was going to win. He's a big Palin fan. He's also a bankrupt builder who's suicidal.
Morocco Bama: didja remind him that the thing works differently from the movies, that you actually have to load it and when the rounds have been spent, reloaded?
While European shops are certainly more crowded than US shops I've never had a problem finding or buying stuff in Europe due to small shops
Maximizing floor space. Being efficent. 8 to 1 does neither. Cut the sf by 50 to 75%, maximize floor space and the end results will be more profitable.
I still see a bunch of folks driving around in expensive cars they can't possibly be paying for since they don't seem to have jobs.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:13 pm | #
yes... an unsustainable lifestyle is unsustainable. of course it does get the most "bang" for its buck; for a while it can even imitate celebrity and keep up with the jonesing...
I am puzzled by what the Obama folks will be doing that will reward good behavior. If the last six months of the Bush Admin econ policies are anything, they are inconsistent. Inconsistency, as we know from the Depression, freezes up people's resolve to act. Therefore nothing happens.
So much coming out of the Obama camp now seems contradictory or at least inconsistent. Trade and tax policy, not to mention treatment of insolvent states and burgs and health care. If that pattern continues then no matter how many billions are thrown at the economy, not much will happen because people will be uncertain as to what's going on. They won't spend until certain what they are getting.
My guess: years of below water economic (in)activity. Followed by . . .
Comrade Volker, I don't talk to him. I heard this from my mother. He and I had a falling out after 911. His exact words were "go back to your cave Osama, and let this family heal." So, I went back to my cave....but I don't think they've healed.
"Cops don't have a lot of conflict resolution skills in their toolbag. If civil protest breaks out, it will require uncommon leadership on both sides not to escalate into a dangerous situation."
Uncommon leadership we don't have. The police that stay at work (which as per Katrina will be a minority) will be keeping their heads down. Rural America will solve their own problems. If and when chaos raises its ugly head in the cities, the first in will be the alphabet armies (ATF, FEMA, FBI) afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
actually have to load it and when the rounds have been spent, reloaded?
Comrade Volker the Viking
9 mil. next to bed, locked, loaded and chambered. 10 fully loaded mags in same drawer. Ammo dump in closet of 1500+ rds. SO can reload each mag as released creating non-stop fire for approx. 90 mins. Then I'm fucked
on the emergence of underground economies-- we lived in a small town in the UK back in the 80's. The Brits have a horrendous VAT tax-- 15%-- on pretty much everything-- goods and services. So once the shopkeepers "knew" you, it was quite common to be asked "will this be a (wink-wink)cash sale?" If so-- no VAT charged.
On the mending sheets/changing habits Q.-- well, at the moment am debating trying an idea to salvage a perfectly good pair of glasses. The prescription's still good but the plastic lenses are coated with that anti-glare stuff, & it's starting to wear off so the lenses are getting cloudy. Someone suggested using auto polish, to gently buff the old coating off.
Haven't tried it yet, but it'd save a couple hundred bucks if it works.
Also wonder if there's a resurgence of interest/sales for all those "Mother Earth-ey" type survival guides like all the communes used in the 60's.
& speaking of experiments from 30 years ago & Tim Leary, by coincidence, am just now reading this book about the history of LSD & the experimental research by the intel community. Apparently there was some spook named Creasy whose wowsa plan was to replace conventional warfare with chemical warfare (in the "blow their minds not their villages" sense) to "pacify" combatants, w/out destroying any valuable assets.
(wonder if "somebody" is dusting off that old file about now-- if we were all ridin' on the magic bus, what matters the price of oil?? )
John R(Va) writes: I am puzzled by what the Obama folks will be doing that will reward good behavior.
Wha? Man, dey gwynne be like spit on a hot griddle, no time for thinking things through. Just do. Then get on the idiot box and make 'em feel good about it. Shit, it'll all work out, relax.
The 8-1 ratio of retail space between the US and the UK is obviously not an apples to apples comparison because land is much cheaper in the US, due to lower population density and laxer greenbelting policies. Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:10 pm | #
Yes and no. "Land" is cheaper except when it isn't. Our retail isn't all in the outer zone. Is Rodeo Drive reall that much cheaper than Saville Row? The UK has the population density of Conneticut. Is Conneticut over retailed? Are their land use policies that much laxer?
And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | #
You have identified the situation as clearly untenable - yet is your expectation that it will continue indefinitely?
I'm just saying the dilithium crystals canna take the strain...
9 mil. next to bed, locked, loaded and chambered. 10 fully loaded mags in same drawer. Ammo dump in closet of 1500+ rds. SO can reload each mag as released creating non-stop fire for approx. 90 mins. Then I'm fucked
That's overcapacity. It'll only take a second for a cluster bomb to eviscerate you, or a couple of seconds for a tank to crush your head.
afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
Black Star Ranch | 01.03.09 - 2:21 pm | #
Don't overlook or fail to account for the thousands of Gulf War I vets, Bosnian Exercise, Gulf War II, and others as well. We are sprinkled with vets of all ages and experiences. I may be wrong, but I am thinking many will drop the pretense and join the defense of community without outside interference. So, one one large level I agree with your point.
.....may I ask a dumb question? What happens if you buy long term bonds at the prevailing pathetic yield and inflation kicks in big-time before they mature? Do you just "take it in the shorts"?
Thanks. I can see your how you are using the methodology now. That's more robust.
You and I are looking at the same problem on different sides of the glass. However, given that you were referring to the cost structure and indigenous development issues in the UK, I understand your point of view more clearly vis-a-vis Rob (whose views I also value).
It appears to be a sound rebuttal.
(Personal musing directed at no one:)
I think one of the primary problems we have is that we are encouraged/forced by rising dirt prices (which are politically expedient and useful to maintain the health of the collateral underlying our banking system) to design and manufacture a finished good that has a useful life of 200-500 years while glossing over the economic variability over that time frame because the money is cheap and the political will is strong.
Additionally, the geometric rise in the cost per sq. of the raw dirt facilitated by credit expansion and use of high leverage per project demands a "go for broke" build-out strategy when an incremental one would be much preferable in terms of smoothing out cash flows.
Following metabear's methodology, we would design an entire project, then break it up over 75 years and re-cash flow each section when the next cycle rolled around.
In America, we do the project design, then double it, then rush like hell to get it done tout de suite while going three times over budget and being forced to add derivative layers of debt and financing just to get the C.O.
IOWs- we're not good at incremental change in America. We are good at manic and irrational behavioral patterns though. So, we got that goin' for us;)
just watched a movie called "money as debt." it's available on the web. have any of ya'll seen it? i'd appreciate your thoughts. my initial reaction after seeing it was to do cartwheels to my safe so that i could enthusiastically clutch my gold coins.
Uncommon leadership we don't have. The police that stay at work (which as per Katrina will be a minority) will be keeping their heads down. Rural America will solve their own problems. If and when chaos raises its ugly head in the cities, the first in will be the alphabet armies (ATF, FEMA, FBI) afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
Black Star Ranch | 01.03.09 - 2:21 pm | #
Depends on the type of incident as to how many cops are on the job. Cops couldn't get to work after Katrina - police stations and vehicles were all under water. Communication systems down. There is no command and control in that situation.
We've had local protests that went well because the organizers kept the cops in the loop - contacted them in advance, advised of their plans, and cooperated with police during the event. The leaders even wore clothing that enabled the cops to find and contact them on site. Groups can stay organized via cell phone, GPS, etc., and even move out of the way when cops need to isolate troublemakers.
This is the kind of leadership I'm referring to - a willingness to work together to keep everybody safe.
Feckless Ness: Safe? There is no such thing as safe, there is only what is. This is a stew pot and there is no escape. Don't be surprised at the thin veneer of civilization once scraped loose from the finish. Badge or no badge, age notwithstanding, education irrelevant, people are people.
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes: Depends on the type of incident as to how many cops are on the job. Cops couldn't get to work after Katrina - police stations and vehicles were all under water. Communication systems down. There is no command and control in that situation.
It'll be great fun shooting the poor and the disenfranchised and singing "America Fuck Yeah!" for a few days. Then there's that whole "nobody cares and "the money ran out" aspect. How many months will your troops fight without pay?
We've had local protests that went well because the organizers kept the cops in the loop
I bet being largely affluent and white helped a lot too.
Groups can stay organized via cell phone, GPS, etc., and even move out of the way when cops need to isolate" troublemakers.
Don't you work for the cops? What are you protesting, negroes roaming free outside of prisons and bantustans?
This is the kind of leadership I'm referring to - a willingness to work together to keep everybody safe.
And by safe, you mean, under control and doing what they're told.
Rent to own - Anecdotal evidence--here in So Cal there is a Brit-style grocery store, "Fresh & Easy" that is 1/4 the size of a typical US grocery. Seemed to be doing well but due to the crash probably won't survive. Nice to shop at (packaging aimed at small families {opposite of Costco], self checkout, only a couple choices of any product). I wonder how it was doing before the crash started. Was it taking off in popularity?
Rounding American's up would be like herding cats.
In my part of US, law enforcement as well as those that have served in Armed Services have bonded over generations.
If The Fed's every won't to bring the US population under their complete control, it will probably be cutting the food chain, Oh damn, that they have already started.
In a word, Yes. Inflation is detrimental to fixed income investments. The interest payments to you stay the same, while the purchasing power of those payments plummets.
If one could package up the largest 30 MSAs in America, what would the artificial land mass's area encompass?
A few Western European countries, I would guess.
Now, add the secondary and tertiary markets that encompass the bulk of our country's land mass and you'd probably get an equilibrium ratio of 5:1 with UK.
Not that equilibriums mean anything in near time, of course.
by Jan 20 it will be done - I've found it interesting that Egypt keeps the southern Gaza border closed whilst Israel does the same with the northern border - and the observes - as the civilian population trapped in Gaza is all but annihilated
Byzantine: "China, which in October replaced Japan as the United States' largest creditor, has increased its holdings by 42 percent over the past year; Britain and the Caribbean banking countries more than doubled their holdings"
Why are they doing this?
The momster just spent 3 or 4 days in the hospital at taxpayer expense, including putting in a pacemaker, which she had been thinking about anyhow before the mugging. How much did this cost? I dunno, got no bill. $20-30 grand, I assume; she was in the intensive care unit. Maybe twice that. Now, if that much money was spent on crime investigation after the first flimflam success (and there were some clues to go on), watching her house etc, methinks the bad guys would have been caught. At far lower an expense.
And, as to the let 'em go judge. Hah, I'd just like them to be caught so we knew who they are.
Just as the banks are insolvent, the justice system is right here, right now broken and getting worse. Do we not have anarchy because the cops are not staring us in the face or because most people follow the real rules (as opposed to what you read in the criminal statutes) most of the time? I think the latter. I also think that the authorities will provide enough food to avoid starvation, which is often the trigger for riotous behavior.
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes: No, Byz. I mean safe. We don't all have to behave badly to get our point across. There was a little fellow in India who proved that, IIRC.
LOL, w.ever. What's it like being a puppet on the hand of a robber? Your antics in the name of white racial paranoia wow them from Sugarland to Maricopa County while Ben and Hank make off with the loot. SUCKER. Hope you haven't spent that pension in advance, they'll rob you of that too.
If Ghandi objected, you'd put him in a free speech zone and ignore him.
(1500 rounds )..That's overcapacity. It'll only take a second for a cluster bomb to eviscerate you, or a couple of seconds for a tank to crush your head.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:27 pm | #
Mock wrote
Thats why they invented asymetrical warfare!
Morocco wrote
"How dare you call a patriot a terrorist! Anyway, keeping a loaded gun in the bedside table is not asymmetrical warfare.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:35 pm | #
mock says
Morocco you missed the point.
You are the first one to utter the word terrorist on this subject. Using asymmetrical tactics does not make one a terrorist.
You dont take a tank on with a 9 and 1000 rounds
The patriot should USE an asymetrical response...get it?
btw
How dare you tell that poor patriot that he will be eviscerated and crushed by a tank.
Egypt doesn't want Hamas jihadism to foment radicalism in Egyptian peasantry. Also Hamas tunnels were violation of Egyptian sovereignty; just like any govt Mubarak's party doesn't want guerrilla operations running from it's domain.
BH, be careful when choosing your heroes. Leary was just another manipulator of the mass media, "a counterculture salesman, and he wore, on every occasion, the same blissed-out smile, a rictus somewhere between a beatific, what-me-worry grin and a movie star's frozen stare into the flashbulbs. One of his ex-wives described it as âthe smile of the ego actually eating the personality."
"Leary was a fool. Drunk with 'celebrity-hood' and his own ego, he became a media clown-and was arguably the single most damaging actor involved in the destruction of the evanescent social movement of the '60's. Tim, with his very public exhortations to the kids to 'tune in, turn on and drop out,' is the inspiration for all the current draconian US drug laws against psychedelics. He would not listen to any of us when we asked him to please cool it, he loved the lime-light and relished his notoriety... I was not a fan of his."
i agree with your notion about local leadership communicating and working with authorities who will be stretched thin and the need to try and maintain civility and order in the face of a breakdow
Outsider writes:Obama's economic stimulus plan includes computerizing medical records.
Can anyone explain to me how computerizing medical records stimulates the economy? Besides the $10/hr. data entry wages, that is.
I don't get why everyone is so obsessed with my health records.
That is simple to answer. The reality is Obama is sticking that in because it needs to be done and has been for the last ten/twenty years.
The reason it hasn't been done because the insurance industry doesn't want it done. So the Republicans make sure it isn't. The Democrats think this is as good way to ram it through.
And aside, the reason insurance companies don't like computerized medical records is simple; insurance companies don't make a profit by paying for efficient medical care, they profit by creating a Byzantine maze of rules and bureaucracy in order to strip off premiums. IE, they're damming the river of cash and siphoning off as much profit as possible. Computerized medical records strikes at the heart of that.
Also longer term setting up a system to do that is a large undertaking that would employ largish numbers of people. And efficiency gains will reduce the drag on the rest of the economy.
That's the hope anyways. Large projects like that often end up as expensive clusterf's. But then again there is the refrain that nothing worthwhile would have been attempted if people knew how hard it was going to be.
And of course the reality is no one is interested in you medical records. I know a paralegal who specializes in going through corporate email archives, he says the personal stuff is mind numbingly boring. Now imagine what your medical records are like.
You have identified the situation as clearly untenable - yet is your expectation that it will continue indefinitely? citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:25 pm | #
I absolutely do not expect it to continue indefinitely. But looking at the situation, I expect the straw that breaks the camel's back to come from some other direction, not FCB's suddenly going on buyer's strike. Not sure yet what direction that is, but it's out there lurking.
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes: I don't recall insulting you. Why so touchy?
You're a willing servant of a corrupt state? As the armed robbers say, you're "holding down the crowd" while Ben and Hank clean out everyone's wallets.
Look around you, your nation is a corrupt, racist prison camp watched by millions of cameras. You should contemplate suicide every night if you're part of that.
I mean, get a grip on the world around you. Nobody but other cops, cop-fanciers and a bunch of aging white racists thinks of the police as their friends. Everyone else has become your enemy because you hold them in captivity while their children's futures are looted.
What are you thinking? Don't you have some kind of actual talent other than spending money you don't have to lock people up in living death in prisons you can't afford?
i worked as a juvenile correctional officer (read counselor, guard, basketball coach and cop on the cell block) with 64 teenagers in a juvenile prison
at least half of the staff i worked with were retired military, or reserve police officers etc
yeah their skill set was good but different then mine...no into negotiation, problem resolution
fast on the draw so to speak, but when being reasonable and negotiations broke down they were great guys and gals to have by your side when the rockin and rollin had to start
Feckless Ness,
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
"Feckless Ness(Excellent)... You're a willing servant of a corrupt state?"
Am I the only one enjoying the irony in this? Don't feel picked on, he says the same stuff about other professions he doesn't like.
But Feckless, I thought CalTrans workes were considered "Public Safety Workers", at least another Caltrans poster said so. Just want to have my facts straight, what is DBP formula for Caltrans, and does it include COLAs?
i agree with you that we are living in a corrupt state
but arent you being a bit tough on FN
just cause we might work with local authorities to keep order doesnt mean we agree with the black ops and bankster crowd
around my neighborhood the sheriffs department and her deputies are into community based policing and as a matter of survival treat the local citizens, regardless of reace, color, or creed or politics, pretty well
Wht not just rip up the money and throw it in the garbage?
Why don't they try the Swedish model?
At least it is crisis tested and proven to work.
The Gordon Brown meme says he's put a shorter leash on what they can do with their bailout.
At least initially ...
Uh ... nevermind.
Went back and read it again.
Boiggles the mind.
Oh no, not the Paulson Plan!
just wait and see - in a few short weeks the Paulson Plan, I mean the Geithner plan will be resurrected on this side of the pond -
Debt Clock
The first time that Lord Mandelson was sacked from government, it transpired that he'd lied on an application for a mortgage - so he's well qualified to deal with the present mess.
Timmmy probably has another trillion dollar plan ready for execution.
You can't have a working plan that costs less than a trillion, can you?
Bugabe should throw away those helis, we need flying oil tankers.
If the bank's unwillingness to lend is the problem, the only solution is for the government to do the lending directly.
Who gives a shit about the UK. The UK is now UKistan.
The real story is:
Manufacturing index drops to 28-year low- AP
Yet the DOW goes up 3%. The insanity continues...
2008 - Billion is new Million
2009 - Trillion is new Billion.
So the Brits will follow the American plan which was scrapped to follow the Brits plan which didnt work, so the Brits are trying what the Americans didnt, so if it works, the Americans will be said to be following the Brits but in reality only following themselves?
God, I love Paulson.
i say we stop injecting banks with cash and start injecting bankers with marinade. you country bumpkins can keep your chewy squirrels. bankers are veal-like. plus squirrels perform a useful ecological duty by burying all those nuts.
sneering cannibal? hmmm..
The toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.
Oh, I see ... It's not greed and ineptitude that are the problems ...
... it's a medical thing ...
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
If the bank's unwillingness to lend is the problem, the only solution is for the government to do the lending directly.
Doc at the Radar Station | 01.03.09 - 9:40 am | #
Which is what I thought the original Brown plan was. The govt bought the banks.
(shrugs shoulders)
Ok, the suspense is over. The next bubble will be the bailout bubble.
1) It is artificially inflating the economy
2) It shoves money to unproductive activities
3) In the long run it will fail, because it is unsustainable.
Will | 01.03.09 - 9:49 am |
after this bubble pops, how long will it be until we get to enjoy another bubble?
peak bubble? the last bubble?
Rather than separating the good assets from the bad assets, how about separating the good bankers from the bad bankers? Unless, of course, they're inseparable -- two halves of the same debased coin.
Doppelbänkers?
peak bubble? the last bubble?
sneering nihilist | 01.03.09 - 9:51 am | #
That's what they said about tulip bulbs.
Gerkinov, I think the UK government capitalized the banks by buying preferred shares, but they don't have any voting rights. They don't set policies at the banks, they just own part of them.
peak bubble? the last bubble?
sneering nihilist | 01.03.09 - 9:51 am | #
The bubble to end all bubbles.
Thanks Doc.
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
Generalisimo Elect Gerkinov - 9:54 am |
yeah, i'm not strongly pushing the idea that there will be no more bubbles. i do think that all this injecting and detoxifying is going to have long term consequences. i'll suggest that the next series of bubbles that we'll blow in the distant future(50yrs) will be smaller than our last bubble.
can these manias keep getting bigger?
... and are banks (and whatever passes for a bank-like institution these days) willing to lend to each other?
Uh ... no.
Detoxify:
http://www.official-detox-pads.com/
FFDIC - Thanks for the Wapo article last thread. I guess all this new planned borrowing is a nothingburger.
... can these manias keep getting bigger?
sneering nihilist | 01.03.09 - 10:01 am | #
Can shortsighted greed be kept in check?
Geez, if their economy gets really bad, they might stop going to the dentist.
Has anyone ever went to borrow money and the bank just said, "we're out of money."
Not that there was any problem, just that they couldn't locate any more money. That they'd already reduced their deposit base to it's limits and they didn't want to correspond on any loans so that they were just "out" for the time being?
No? Then there's the problem.
Like politicians, bankers are the only group of market actors that can always seem to scare up more money than they ought to have at their disposal at any given time.
NorkaWest writes:
Why don't they try the Swedish model?
Ideology trumps pragmatism
Can shortsighted greed be kept in check?
Generalisimo Elect Gerkinov | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:07 am |
maybe it can. maybe it cannot. at some point though won't the scale of future bubbles strain the monetary system to the breaking point? never mind ecological limits for now.
the scale of this last bubble -- with its siv's, cdo's, mbs's, what else? is impressive to say the least. i'm no expert but i can't imagine the financial chicanery that would be needed to blow a bigger bubble.
UK economy is even more dead man walking than US economy. The cornerstones being countless shopping malls, easy credit, selling overpriced shitty houses to each other and rampant financial speculation. Manufacturing base destroyed almost completely. Recipe for "28 days later" movie kind of disaster...
i say we stop injecting banks with cash and start injecting bankers with marinade.
I lol'd
wetzel | 01.03.09 - 10:20 am |
thanks
Why don't they try the Swedish model?
Tiger Woods says it works great.
FFDIC - Thanks for the Wapo article last thread. I guess all this new planned borrowing is a nothingburger.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:06 am | #
MLM,
Thanks for bringing forward FFDIC's linky - here is the haloscan link to that post:
HaloScan.com - Comments
Takeaway: outstanding marketable debt is ~$6.4 trillion, about 40% of which needs to be rolled in the next year, or ~$2.6 trillion - and new borrwings of ~$2 trillion but that is a moving target - so to carry it off the Treasury market needs to soak up ~$4.6 - ~$5.0 trillion in the next year (of which ~$2.0 - ~$2.4 trillion is an incremental increase in borrowing).
There will be more sequels to TARP than there were to Rocky. Watch. Rich is right....it's just money, and it does grow on trees, but only a few can grow the trees, and only a few can horde the fruit.
cr writes: The toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.
sort of a financial rehab, we'll dry out and sin no more
who was it that suggested a jubilee?
hoard...horde is the opposite of few
just sayin'
Takeaway: outstanding marketable debt is ~$6.4 trillion, about 40% of which needs to be rolled in the next year, or ~$2.6 trillion - and new borrwings of ~$2 trillion but that is a moving target - so to carry it off the Treasury market needs to soak up ~$4.6 - ~$5.0 trillion in the next year (of which ~$2.0 - ~$2.4 trillion is an incremental increase in borrowing).
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:29 am | #
Well and true, but will they roll it to a longer term? 10 year? 30 year? 100 year?
1) It is artificially inflating the economy
2) It shoves money to unproductive activities
3) In the long run it will fail, because it is unsustainable.
Will | 01.03.09 - 9:49 am | #
It's a building tidal wave of inflation that's heading our way. They're sitting on it right now, but when they start circulating it, down goes the dollar, and us with it.
One hundred billlllllllllioooooooon :
Here is an example
wetzel | 01.03.09 - 10:20 am | #
kin to Lewis Wetzel, famous Indian fighter from early days of West Virginia?
Well and true, but will they roll it to a longer term? 10 year? 30 year? 100 year?
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 10:35 am | #
Ask the FCB's that are just about the only foreign buyers atm...
ce: Maybe we'll just print it and be done, screw the transactional nature of it all, just print, print, print. Me? I'm going to trade school to become a journeyman pressman.
Well and true, but will they roll it to a longer term? 10 year? 30 year? 100 year?
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 10:35 am | #
longer term = higher interest rate = need to borrow more and more(exponential curve thingy) money to pay interest?
hoard...horde is the opposite of few
just sayin'
Okay, let's substitute allocate for hoarde. Although, I think hoarde and allocate can be used compatibly in my analogy.
"As evidence mounts that the £37 billion part-nationalisation last year has failed to keep credit flowing."
And in other news the earth continues to circle the sun. It bears repeating that there are three steps in the financial recovery program that cannot be skipped on the road to economic health:
1. Socializing the losses does not make them go away.
2. Part-nationalization is like a little bit pregnant. (UK or US.)
3. Liquidity cannot cure solvency.
And a little something for Broward from last night:
timothy leary is my role model.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.02.09 - 9:29 pm | #
Timothy Leary's dead.
No, no, no, no, He's outside looking in.
Timothy Leary's dead.
No, no, no, no, He's outside looking in.
He'll fly his astral plane,
Takes you trips around the bay,
Brings you back the same day,
Timothy Leary. Timothy Leary.
Along the coast you'll hear them boast
About a light they say that shines so clear.
So raise your glass, we'll drink a toast
To the little man who sells you thrills along the pier.
He'll take you up, he'll bring you down,
He'll plant your feet back firmly on the ground.
He flies so high, he swoops so low,
He knows exactly which way he's gonna go.
Timothy Leary. Timothy Leary.
Obama says untemployment will hit 10% and elements of industrial production are at 1948 levels. Auto sales are in the tank. Who the heck is creditworthy enough to get a loan? This is such a classic example of pushing on a string. It will be UKistan and USAistan stumbling in to the new year.
Wha? Who's following who now?
ce: Maybe we'll just print it and be done, screw the transactional nature of it all, just print, print, print. Me? I'm going to trade school to become a journeyman pressman.
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 10:40 am | #
Comma zero zero zero comma zero zero zero decimal point enter.
We may actually see the perverse circumstance of a shortage of physical scrip to power the underground economy as the Fed cannot print and distribute the actual toilet paper to wipe this particular bum.
CR, I think you made a typo. It is the Satanson Plan.
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep.
Who made who:
YouTube - ACDC - Who Made Who
Not sure whether this source is MSM or not, but this guy is forcasting the end of the recession.
When Will This Recession Finally End? at SmartMoney.com
There are some important signals along the same lines coming from bond markets. The extremely high yields on corporate bonds have started to come down, indicating that investors no longer think they need extraordinary interest rates to compensate for lots of expected defaults.
And in credit markets, closely watched indicators of default risk such as the TED-spread, the swap spread and the price of credit default swaps have all relaxed considerably over the last few weeks.
I'm not agreeing with him. I just pointing out that it's out there.
the scale of this last bubble -- with its siv's, cdo's, mbs's, what else? is impressive to say the least. i'm no expert but i can't imagine the financial chicanery that would be needed to blow a bigger bubble.
sneering nihilist | 01.03.09 - 10:18 am | #
Agreed ... there'll be other bubbles, but not like this for a century or so.
Morocco Bama writes:
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep.
isnt it funny that in every Investor Prospect is the Disclaimer " past performance is NO indication to the future"?? and yet the bozzo experts claim historical it has to be a recovery soon???
With respect to bond guy's comment on the last thread - my understanding is that they are not talking about spreading it over a few years. That's the issue. They are trying not to end up in a too little / too late situation. (This is why they are looking for shovel-ready projects.)
I agree that they aren't going to have much choice but to issue longer-term debt to get this done, and at greater expense.
supafly73 writes:
UK economy is even more dead man walking than US economy.
We have put TARP money in 221 banks to the tune of $224 billion, we are more dead we just don't get it or know it yet
Yoringe, funny you should mention that. That was the one point I did bring up with these morons....and all I got in return was a blank stare.
So let's get this straight.
Paulson dumped his original plan in favour of the first British plan because his original plan didn't work. Now the Brits have dumped their first plan that has since been adopted by Paulson because it didn't work in the UK, and are now going to use Paulson's original plan which failed in the US.
We're all f****d!
.and all I got in return was a blank stare.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:57 am | #
Tell them to stick with it, sooner or later everyone will be right.
Timothy Leary's dead.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:41 am | #
I saw him speak at UVa, in, oh... 1986 or so.
Said he considered it his patriotic duty as an American try try every illegal drug at least once a year.
Sure looked to me like he was living up to that.
well as i said to a friend " these guys who believed the sun orbits the earth where sure not stupid, just running on wrong theories", same goes for the "conventionel wisdom experts".. they arent stupid either but still wrong.. mises and marx rule !!
And in credit markets, closely watched indicators of default risk such as the TED-spread, the swap spread and the price of credit default swaps have all relaxed considerably over the last few weeks.
Two issues that I see with those observations:
The focus on indicators while ignoring the real economy seems like making the dashboard lights go green while the engine is still seizing up...finance is not the engine of the economy. That illusion is one of the major contributors to our current condition.
unlike other bubbles e.g. telecom which at least left real assets in its wake; this bubble was all about building "level 3 assets". Those wonderful assets that allowed both parties to the same trade to show a profit. That "make believe " profit was monetized and found its way through the system- higher tax payments. consumer spending etc. Now that it has blown up we have exactly nothing.
It is the Satanson Plan.
Elvis | 01.03.09 - 10:47 am | #
The Bride of Hankenstein.
## Tell them to stick with it, sooner or later everyone will be right.
Sure, I guess if we apply Quantum Physics, if enough people believe it, and focus enough of their energy upon it, it will recover.
However, given that same logic, we can conclude that CR and Tanta are responsible for this current malaise...he's likened to the flapping of a butterfly's wings somewhere in the skies over South America.
Marx proved Capitalism cant work..
Mises proved Socialism cant work..
so instead of fixing this wich cant work they should divert the resources to something new!! but that means the digged in "Parasites that decide"have to change wich would be too much to ask...
ergo Revolution will take place..
my guess short after Hyperinflation knocks on the door..
UK economy is even more dead man walking than US economy. The cornerstones being countless shopping malls, easy credit, selling overpriced shitty houses to each other and rampant financial speculation. Manufacturing base destroyed almost completely.
supafly73 | 01.03.09 - 10:19 am | #
Retail square feet per person:
US 20.2
UK 2.5
Methinks you exagerate. UK has problems but don't make them worse than thery are.
And a little something for Broward from last night
Timothy Leary - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"When Leary arrived in prison, he was given psychological tests that were used to assign inmates to appropriate work details. Having designed many of the tests himself...,Leary answered them in such a way that he seemed to be a very conforming, conventional person... Leary was assigned to work as a gardener in a lower security prison, and in September 1970 he escaped"
You can't write fiction like that.
Leary was awesome.
Leary was awesome.
And he liked group sex.
There was a plan and it should have been the Swedish plan. The banks (those that are unable to function without recourse to all the special facilities) need to be nationalized. Certain class of creditors and investors get wiped out, the good assets plus new capital is put into a new bank which are then resold to the public via an IPO, that money is taken to capitalize the bad bank which houses all the crap.
Crisis over lets get back to allowing the free market to work. I believe that this crisis is being perpetuated by free market believers who have resisted a nationalization of the banking system. Since, clearly a Darwinian free market solution is not possible they have essentially entered into Faustian bargain. Essentially selling the free market principles in small installments.
The bubble to end all bubbles.
Generalisimo Elect Gerkinov | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 9:54 am | #
Indeed: The Hyper bubble...
Bubblisimo?
However, given that same logic, we can conclude that CR and Tanta are responsible for this current malaise...
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:03 am | #
I have it on good authority that this is the case and therefore must be true. (please be sensitive to the sarcasm for all my comments today)
i really want to know how bb plans to avoid rampant inflation..
all this bailout money will hit the street when the supply is really low from the deflation squezze...
it has to be ugly..
Its bubbles all the way down.
BBC NEWS | Europe | Slovakia becomes eurozone member
hehe brits will go green with envy..
i have if from a source they will rename the Pound to "gramm sterling"
Its bubbles all the way down.
Comrade NSA | 01.03.09 - 11:10 am | #
Heh heh, funny 'cause it's true...
i really want to know how bb plans to avoid rampant inflation..
all this bailout money will hit the street when the supply is really low from the deflation squezze...
it has to be ugly..
Yoringe | 01.03.09 - 11:09 am | #
bb plans to withdraw as he goes along, at least that's what I heard.
But blonderengel has it right, it's from a previous thread toward the bottom, but it's about a return of capital to its source. Like some have said, wiping out all but the elite.
And this is nothing new. But it is certainly interesting as a participant on the suffering end. And yakking about it with other semi-enlightened folk is too, for as long as they allow it.
I agree that they aren't going to have much choice but to issue longer-term debt to get this done, and at greater expense.
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Now I get it, CR was not going up to hills just for fun. Even take "fun" photos to hide his real intentions.
He is little by little stocking up food, guns, ammo and medicine up there into his favorite CAVE while we continuosly yap yap about "recession or depression already?" or "looky, that meter just went totally red. Way cool!"
CR is one sneaky BASTARD!
Maybe even news about Tanta being dead are not entirely true
The Planck bubble.
Volker the Viking.
well there is the fly in this plan.. the 95% of the ppl who get shafted..
actual we can well live without the other 5% , but they cant without us..
the resistance i see is consume strike .. to ground this system complette..
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am | #
genau! Let's see what the weasels do next. It may well work and for quite a long while (relevant term alert). But not for a very long while.
Never fear, Edwin Black is here, and he has The Plan.
Trailer for Edwin Black's New Book "THE PLAN" Video
Iran must be destroyed before Ahmadinejad blows up the Strait of Hormuz. (sarcasm for those without detectors)
well there is the fly in this plan.. the 95% of the ppl who get shafted..
actual we can well live without the other 5% , but they cant without us..
the resistance i see is consume strike .. to ground this system complette..
Yoringe | 01.03.09 - 11:17 am | #
I see whole new chapters in proletariat history about to be written.
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am | #
What is the dollar amount of the long bond that has been sold recently at these rates? Dunno, but that seems relevant to assessing the ease with which the next $2 T (the new "2 large") can be blithely rolled from short term borrowing to long term borrowing...
ce: Have you ever been a victim of Three Card Monte?
these guys new in 1999
)
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.
call it the Hollywood solution..
If taxpayers are bailing out these charlatans, then we expect to get the same tax breaks these corporate jokers have been getting away with as well.
Taxpayers should be able to deduct all the expenses of living - food, fuel, car expenses, travel, mortgage, etc.
Why do the bankrupt get the best tax breaks and we foot it AND pay higher taxes on top of it?
...the toxic assets, blamed for poisoning the financial system, would be parked in a state vehicle or bad bank that would manage them and attempt to dispose of them while detoxifying the main-stream banking system.....
SIV of the govt. Govt copying bankrput tactic of the useless bankers!!
Volker the Viking writes:
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am | #
genau! Let's see what the weasels do next. It may well work and for quite a long while (relevant term alert). But not for a very long while.
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 11:17 am | #
all of this money being borrowed is being invested right? okay, so the cost of money is low right now. that does not mean that the investment the borrowed money gets plowed into will return more than that cost.
if i'm borrowing money at 1% but my investments return less than 1% i'm f'd pretty quick. right?
wait thats the link..
YouTube
- Broadcast Yourself.
We need a Bubble Czar!
ce: Have you ever been a victim of Three Card Monte?
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 11:22 am | #
Nope, and also never went for the shell game - viz definition number 4 for gaff - knew some carnies once upon a time...
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/gaff's&
Anonymous @ 10:38 am
Here is an example
What are those giraffes doing in the right hand bottom corner of the note?
Comrade NSA: There's another street game where you take three cups and put a small rubber ball under one. It may help you answer your question.
Imagine someone high up from where you are behind some glassed in enclosure. This person holds up both hands making two fists with the pinky finger extended. This person wiggles the pinky.
And that is how easy it is to control the masses. Helpful?
Looking ahead it occurred to me that 2008 was the equivalent of 1929...and given the dislocations and distorted pricing signal mechanism it is not a stretch to see 2009 as 1930, 2010 as 1931 and so on....anyway, this is what I will be telling people who screw up the courage to ask my opinion about the future...and I thought I could not get any more unpopular. Gobsmackery.
What are those giraffes doing in the right hand bottom corner of the note?
REBea
aiming at a higher denomination??
ce: I once lost a weeks pay to a Carnie who had the bowling pin and swinging ball on a chain game. I was very young.
Both the UK plan and the original Paulson plan fail because they attempt to shield uninsured bank debtholders from loss. That debt is bad, like so much debt currently floating around, and there's no escaping reality, which is why all attempts so far have failed. The government can, of course, throw away taxpayer money unnecessarily to benefit these (mostly wealthy) bondholders; but the scale of this particular problem is so enormous even the governments will shudder under the burden if Paulson/Geithner and Darling/Mandelson manage to make them bear it.
The honest and effective solution is to seize the banks, create a good bank/ bad bank setup, and convert an appropriate amount of uninsured debt into bad bank equity. The bad bank should carry no debt, only equity, tiered as necessary to deal with debt priority. Banks would be freed of onerous and indeterminate debt and the taxpayer cost held to a minimum.
Of course this is the Swedish model all the sensible folks have been calling for since the word go and in addition to all the various corruption influences pushing them to rob the taxpayers for bank owners, managers, and creditors TPTB would also have to acknowledge they were wrong in rejecting it months ago. So I'm not holding my breath.
Quotes:
The Only thing to kill America is from inside. -- John Rutledge
[I agree! And evildoers in power have done the dirty deed.]
"The length and severity of depressions depend partly on the magnitude of the 'real' maladjustments, which developed during the preceding boom and partly on the aggravating monetary and credit conditions." -- Gotfried Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, 1937
[from Prudent Bear]
Jas
Volker,
Education always seems to come with tuition in one form or another...
ce:
I went to school on a full ride, but I still paid through every orifice of my body!
Best article I have read to date on Freddie & Fannie, some great descriptors in here: "War of the Roses", "holy war", "going Noriega" (hat tip naked capitalism):
Fannie Mae's Last Stand | vanityfair.com
I can see Hank and Ben late in the night struggling with events.
BB: "Hey Hank, I've got it! We blame Bill & Doris."
HP: "Why would we do that? They're the ones that got it right."
BB: "Exactly. While the rest of us were here claiming hoocoodanode they did know and didn't do anything except blog. It's their fault."
HP: "You may be on to something. The public is going to be scrambling for someone to blame and we both know is ain't gonna be us."
BB: "It isn't like nobody read my game plan. We've so far successfully managed perception with no regard to reality. This is just another misdirection."
HP: "okay, this will work. Let's get Shelia jawboning on it and see if George has had enough anti-depressants to pull this off without crying."
BB: "If this sucker's goning down lets make sure we've bailed ahead of time. Oh wait, I'm still gonna be here... damn."
HP: "Calm down you know I'm always good for a few tax free Krugerrands if you need an extended overseas vacation."
BB: "Thanky Hanky, mighty nice to hear you've squirreled away some of the $750 mill you converted personally but I was thinking more about hiking the Desert Southwest. Did you see those pictures? Wow"
HP: "Don't remind me, half the Fed staff is booking flights to Tempe. Worst office disruption since I had to clamp down those stupid UberNerd⢠lapel pins and don't even get me started on PigWearâ¢."
OT, but in the past we have wondered whether the government was refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now that oil prices have fallen. It turns out that they have not been doing so, due to meddling by congress. However, it seems that they have belatedly started filling 'er up again now that a law has expired at the end or 2008.
U.S. Aims to Fill Oil Reserve - WSJ.com
Congressional meddling in the SPR from Wikipedia (and prices were...higher):
On May 13, 2008, the United States Senate and House of Representatives voted nearly unanimously to temporarily suspend the 70,000 barrel per day shipment of petroleum to the nation's emergency reserve[2]. A temporary halt to SPR stockpiling is hoped to increase oil supplies and thereby reduce the cost of oil, although analysts are divided on whether it will have a meaningful effect to consumers[3]. Shipments to the Strategic Oil Reserve would resume at the end of 2008. On May 16, 2008, the Department of Energy announced it was canceling oil shipments into the SPR beginning in July 2008 when the current purchase contract expires.[4] On May 19, 2008, the White House signaled President Bush's intent to sign the legislation passed by the Congress.[5]
Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
i really want to know how bb plans to avoid rampant inflation..
Probably the same way he avoided a deflationary depression. First, deny it's a possibility. Second, enact ineffective or even counterproductive countermeasures. Third, be shocked when it happens.
Well, at current Treasury rates that's not exactly an agonizing hardship.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:16 am
I guess we'll see.
citizen energyecon writes:
"What is the dollar amount of the long bond that has been sold recently at these rates? Dunno, but that seems relevant to assessing the ease with which the next $2 T (the new "2 large") can be blithely rolled from short term borrowing to long term borrowing..."
You are correct in pointing out that most borrowing is at the front of the curve. I.e., T-Bills, 2-,3-,5-year notes. Yes, this poses extension risks if there was a bond market crash.
But if the government is buying toxic assets, they should not extend to long maturities in order to fund them. Very simply, you do not borrow at 30-years fixed to fund a position in 5-year floating mortgages.
And keep in mind that foreign central banks (FCBs) are a major buyer of Treasury products. To a very large extent, the Treasury and the FCB's just sit down and have a quiet chat over drinks and decide what the funding profile will be like. If they want T-Bills, they get T-Bills. If they want 2-years, they get 2-years. If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct.
Rob Dawgwrites:
Retail square feet per person:
US 20.2
UK 2.5
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 11:05 am | #
A relevant but not entirely apples to apples comparison. The cost of land delta chief among the differences.
Fair Economist writes:
Both the UK plan and the original Paulson plan fail because they attempt to shield uninsured bank debtholders from loss. That debt is bad, like so much debt currently floating around, and there's no escaping reality, which is why all attempts so far have failed. The government can, of course, throw away taxpayer money unnecessarily to benefit these (mostly wealthy) bondholders;
Are you sure that's not the plan in the first place?
.
maybe it can. maybe it cannot. at some point though won't the scale of future bubbles strain the monetary system to the breaking point? never mind ecological limits for now.
If capital is badly allocated,
if market players are not productive because they keep on getting money without having to work effectively,
if there is a lack of confidence in transactions,
if money keeps on producing stuff we wont be needing in the future,
if no money goes into the sectors that need to be financed for our ageing population
the economy will implode.
Who knows how long it will take? The sure thing is we're heading that way.
If they want T-Bills, they get T-Bills. If they want 2-years, they get 2-years. If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct.
bond guy | 01.03.09 - 11:40 am | #
Cue "hoocoodanode"...
Economic War
Meanwhile, back at the ranch...
Russia gas row disruption spreads, no talks in sight
KIEV/MOSCOW (Reuters) Russian gas flows to four European Union countries were below normal levels on Saturday after Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine in a pricing row, and there were no talks in sight to resolve the dispute.
Temperatures were below zero overnight in Europe, and Bulgaria's Bulgargaz joined energy firms in Poland, Romania and Hungary in saying they had noted falls in supply, though flows to Europe's biggest economy, Germany, were not affected.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
Doc at the Radar Station | 01.03.09 - 9:59 am | #
Yes, they are lending but only to people with good credit. I am closing on a refi this Monday: 30 yr. conv at 4.375%
Bubblisimo Gerkinov. I like it.....it's fitting.
--
Fair Economist,
Great reply on BB.
My reply in another blog:
"Yes, I remain totally unimpressed by PROF. Bernanke. Only a moron would sit on a hot metal chair with burner underneath."
Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke are leaders suitable for?
Jas
Ukraine warns EU serious gas shortages possible
KIEV, Ukraine A senior Ukrainian official says European consumers will see serious natural gas shortages in only two weeks if Moscow and Kiev don't solve their dispute over gas supplies.
Bohdan Sokolovsky's statement raises the stakes in an escalating row between the two neighbors.
Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on New Year's Day after the two countries failed to resolve payment issues or agree on a price contract for 2009.
Most Russian gas bound for Europe travels through Ukraine.
Sokolovsky said Saturday even though Ukraine will continue shipping Russian gas intended for Europe, disruptions in supplies will occur in the next 10 to 15 days if Ukraine's gas is not shipped along with it.
He said the pipelines require a minimum amount of gas to avoid an automatic shutdown. (This is what happened with motor gasoline in the southeast USA after the two hurricanes shut down refining and transport this summer)
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
In USA "Bad Bank" equals you.
From eco's link ...
Q Have we learned anything from past economic cycles?
A No, and we have so much information today and yet, we are so disconnected.
...
Q Does this mean you are not satisfied with the solutions tabled so far?
A Absolutely, I never underestimate the stupidity of mankind, which is based on greed and fear and what they do when they are afraid or too greedy. When the emotions rule, you can be sure it will lead to some form of stupidity of one form or another. The idea of saving GM [General Motors Corp.] is the dumbest thing in the world. Let it go bankrupt, let it go renegotiate its wages and put them on the comparable level paid by its competitors. What we need is common sense, logic, rationality, putting aside politics and fighting the common enemy. What worries me is the proroguing of Parliament and losing two months to tackle the problems. I've been trying to tell the politicians for Christ's sake, don't do something politically stupid. This is economic war!
Tells it like it is.
For the uninitiated, 'proroguing parliament' means that Haitian hotty Michelle Jean gets to tell Canadians they can't throw Harper out on his ass.
.
When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work.
While I have a solid understanding of financial statements, I'm not terribly knowledgeable on economics. So I'll listen to anyone for a better understanding. So far, what I'm hearing from most bulls is a version of 'equities will go up because they're so low'.
To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?
You want decisions to be made on facts? What a wierdo. The Fed of course understands that you get better decisions by denying critical facts to the public
.
Anybody pay any attention/heed to the bot boys?
YouTube -
"Has anyone ever went to borrow money and the bank just said, "we're out of money."
Well, yes, but not at a bank. There are a lot of other lenders and investors who have been saying this over the past year, especially since around September.
Sometimes they mean "we've used up all of our allocation for this market segment, come see us in three months". Other times, they mean "our investors are withdrawing too much money and we can't get into anything new". Worse, they might mean "We've lost too much money and we need all the liquidity we can get."
--
Q: Why was Bernanke, a student of, or an expert on, the Great Depression, brought in in August 2002?
Jas
The Spotted dick Paulson plan...
Spotted dick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Someday, and that day may never come, I hope to be as smart as Jas.
A little more from eco's link [Jarislowsky interview in the Financial Post]:
Q. Are you saying we need to fight the crisis with inflation?
A. Unfortunately, you have to create inflation to get rid of the debt. The only way to get housing to go up again is through inflation, by reducing the value of the mortgages. The only way to get the consumer back purchasing things is to get rid of their debts and that can only be done through inflation. I'm not somebody who believes in inflation. I think it's an awful thing, but there's no alternative.
As Jarislowsky was quoted in the previous link:
"I never underestimate the stupidity of mankind,"
And he's a prime example.
OT- commentator on Matt Yglesias blog:
Ive heard some people fretting that were about to re-enter a time when economic conditions make cities so full of crime that they are nearly unlivable. How do we avoid that sort of thing happening again like it did for a while there in the 1970s?
Living in a big city myself (DC), I've been thinking a lot about the economy's social consequence on crime. My area is supposedly gentrifying, but there's significant crime. I'm getting real worried as the economy deteriorates, it could get significantly worse.
Any other thoughts on future crime consequences on the economy?
"Morocco Bama writes:
Everyone I've spoken to over the holidays is convinced that the recovery will be late 2009. When I queried them as to why they thought that, they said that's how recessions work. When I asked where they heard that, they cited the MSM, including CNBC. I didn't argue with them....it's futile arguing with sheep."
While I do agree with you that their explanation of causation is pretty weak, they could still be right: the recovery might start at the end of 2009.
For those of us who believe we have a regular recession superimposed on a collapsing set of asset bubbles, the end of 2009 doesn't sound that strange. People who still have jobs will be saving. People with auto loans will be paying them off an not getting a new car for a while (for those of you with leases, um, try to extend for a year). Lots of prices will be coming down.
Of course, most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.
The Spotted dick Paulson plan...
FFDIC | 01.03.09 - 12:09 pm | #
I always thought that the name was a referring the clam Columbus's brought back to Europe in an earleir round of globalization.
Richard I was the guilty party.
Live and learn.
Any other thoughts on future crime consequences on the economy?
asl hearts lenin | 01.03.09 - 12:15 pm | #
Oh uh, I can hear the survivalists/gun nuts clambering out of the closets as I type ...
But the economy will no longer be contracting, and the recession that started in December 2007 will end at 18 or 21 months of age. The previous record holders, severe recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, each lasted 16 months.
Forecasters See Fast Recovery; Others Doubt Their Eyesight - NY Times
I think that consumers are certainly in a state of shock right now, but their behavior is fundamentally rational, said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the United States Chamber of Commerce. They want to work, they want to make money and they want to spend that money. Above all they are resilient. They lick their wounds and with some help from government, they start back again and we come out of this quickl
New Year and I still cannot spell or type.
clam=clap
earileir=earlier
"Spotted Dick" is something sweet the british eat,not....Oh, Wait.
I think The Paulson Plan is an annuity stream from the Treasury to failing banks. I don't think they have any end in mind for these bailout funds. This is going to prevent healthy banks with sound business practices from growing and taking the place of the sick banks. Failure is rewarded. The failed banks will have to continue their practices and healthy banks that want a federally guaranteed income stream will have to imitate the business practices of the failed institutions.
Paulson's plan is based on Wall St's business model; collect fees and distribute bonuses. I don't think Paulson understands how productive businesses operate.
Good glod energy, them's biiiiiggg figures.
All so negative...maybe I should go watch bunnies, you should too:
YouTube - Making of Bunny Ads
Good female on female on male on female on male action. Group thingy at the end is the best
--
"Someday, and that day may never come, I hope to be as smart as Jas."
Comrade Volker the Viking,
That is because I recognized a long time ago that I was a dope (holding propaganda beliefs without thorough examination) in the areas of economics, investments and politics in more ways than one and have been trying hard to be a lesser dope ever since.
Genuine dopes fight hard to remain dopes!
Jas
Paulson's plan is based on Wall St's business model; collect fees and distribute bonuses. I don't think Paulson understands how productive businesses operate.
lama | 01.03.09 - 12:21 pm | #
Perfect.
sure follow the Paulson Plan Ponzi Plan....
US Government bailout now totals about $8.5 trillion
If we figure the government paid $8.5 trillion for bailed out assets worth 1/4 less than was actually paid, i.e., that the government got stuff worth about $6.38 trillion for its $8.5 trillion investment, which is perhaps a charitable assumption, since there is really no way to know what most of the trash was/is worth because nobody was buying
it means about $2.13 trillion of the dollars printed to buy these assets represent nothing, except our ability to print dollars. Or, in the context of the overall economy, we printed phantom dollars amounting to about 15% of the 2008 GDP.
Nothing found for Blog 2009 01 No-one-saw-it-coming-really #comment-137011
Dawg--that Moody Blues song went through my head also with the Timothy L comment. I was tempted to post it, but didn't.
Like, wow, man.
Gulf Cooperation Council leaders yesterday concluded their 29th annual summit meeting in Muscat, Oman with a final approval for the creation of a single currency for the six-nation economic bloc, still targeted for 2010.
Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the GCC and boasts substantial gold reserves. But whether gold will be included in the currency basket has not yet been decided.
Oh and remember that No One Saw It Coming REALLY?
Of course, most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.
some investor guy | 01.03.09 - 12:15 pm | #
AND most of the job losses...
Anonymous writes:
Gulf Cooperation Council leaders yesterday concluded their 29th annual summit meeting in Muscat, Oman with a final approval for the creation of a single currency for the six-nation economic bloc, still targeted for 2010.
Been hearing this for about a decade. I'll believe it when I see it.
If the FCB's remain happy, rollover risk remains only a wild hypothetical construct.
bond guy | 01.03.09 - 11:40 am | #
I agree bond guy. I don't think FCB's will be the first to provide the hoocoodanode moment. If I'm remembering my figures right, we can expect FCB's to recycle $800 billion of CAD (give or take a billion of FDI here or there) into Treasurys this year. But we've got the new administration talking about borrowing at least twice that. So it seems to me the real question is where the rest of the money comes from, and what we get as unintended consequences (squeezing out private borrowers?). That may be more likely to provided the hoocoodanode.
Citizen,
I've officially called a bottom. I'm going to buy an iphone.
Comsumer strike:
All us little Atlases will Shrug?
we can expect FCB's to recycle $800 billion of CAD
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:29 pm | #
But you have to close your eyes and say, "I do believe in ceteris paribus" - and if that holds, there you go!
sue: we all have bottoms
Another round for the house!
Sue's buying an iphone while LawyerLiz is calling a consumer strike.
There you have it.
.
"So it seems to me the real question is where the rest of the money comes from, and what we get as unintended consequences (squeezing out private borrowers?)"
US Treasuries are now acting like giant black hole, sucking in all the loose cash into it from US economy as "safe haven". That is a real bad sign.
I don't think US government is able to redistribute that money effectively enough to kickstart the economy, especially on top of collapsing tax revenues on all levels and with de facto plutocracy rule. Main street is left with nothing.
Money distribution inside economy gone totally fubar.
But you have to close your eyes and say, "I do believe in ceteris paribus" - and if that holds, there you go!
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:31 pm | #
Take a look at the countries that make up the lion's share of the CAD (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia). What have they done since this started -- scrambled like crazy to try to maintain the status quo, because the alternative is politically unpalatable in the extreme. And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
I bet Barter makes a comeback. That did not work out so well last time. A clearinghouse like ebay to match up services for a percentage. Only problem was everyone padded the bill.
lama says: "I think The Paulson Plan is an annuity stream from the Treasury to failing banks."
I agree. And its this kind of high-handed crap that the FreeMarket (tm) decides. Every. Damn. Time. Funny how it became an ideology. And the scariest and most depressing part is that this was probably not a conspiracy, in total, but rather just the way human nature works.
A person's view changes as they increase in wealth, until they realize that they are nature's winners and those with less money are just whiny, grasping usurpers. This phenomenon is too weird to believe unless you've seen it, which is probably why the world endlessly cycles through disasters.
It's a building tidal wave of inflation that's heading our way. They're sitting on it right now, but when they start circulating it, down goes the dollar, and us with it.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 10:35 am | #
this seems simple enough to me, and I think it's what bankers have done throughout history.
withholding large amounts of cash and drying up credit deflates assets and results in foreclosures etc, which become owned by the banks. pain and suffering, lots of unemployment, widespread bankruptcy of businesses. banks continue to hold until prices are low enough we call it a depression. banks buy up distressed assets. banks release the floodgates and we're suddenly awash in credit to buy back assets from the banks. asset prices inflate. the bank buys low, then sells high.
All us little Atlases will Shrug?
lawyerliz | 01.03.09 - 12:31 pm | #
Parallel economy. Parallel underground economy. Parallel underground invatation only economy that has withdrawn its consent of the governed. The people with the guns in power have completely lost sight of that simple concept. This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no.
Take a look at the countries that make up the lion's share of the CAD (China, Japan, Saudi Arabia). What have they done since this started -- scrambled like crazy to try to maintain the status quo, because the alternative is politically unpalatable in the extreme. And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | #
Who was it that said, "If you owe a hundred dollars, it's your problem, but if you owe a million dollars, it's the bank's problem"?
.
The real "funny" thing is that the more they issue these "rescue" and "emergency" programs, the more the public and companies will get scared.
They will pour more and more their savings into US Treasuries as "safe haven". That means they will spend less and less generally on everything else!
Paulson and Bernanke just added a feedback hose at the SHTFan. Friggin TurboSHTFan!
@ meta-
re: "cost of land delta"...
What layer of the business are you in?
DO NOT DRINK OR COOK USING YOUR TAPWATER! Operation Floodgate has been put into effect. A drug cocktail consisting of valium, prozac, oxycontin, ectasy and a dozen experimental bio pharms has been released. The desired effect will be to increase consumerism and debt loads of the American citizens by making us shuffle footed, zombies gravitating to Wal-Marts.
Martin Regalia, chief economist at the United States Chamber of Commerce. They want to work, they want to make money and they want to spend that money. Above all they are resilient.
unlike all those dead beats during the great depression- who didn't want to work, make money or spend it. I get it now !!!
"DO NOT DRINK OR COOK USING YOUR TAPWATER! Operation Floodgate has been put into effect."
That happened 30 years ago. A bit late for that one.
Nostrovia,
"....most of the bank failures are still ahead. Most of the corporate failures too [will any be defined as "too big to fail"? Of course.]. Don't forget a few more countries defaulting on debt.....AND most of the job losses..."
Lets also not forget the states and smaller municipal failures and many under-funded pension plans.....
All of this the FedGov will backstop?
It seems the FedGov has a serious cash-flow problem in itself. Too many of its supporters are either "not playing", moving off-shore, or have nothing left to give........
We're only 175 pages into this 1000 page version of "Atlas Shrugged, 2008"
The Black Hole
YouTube - The Black Hole
From today's NYT - The origin of Hoocoodanode
"It is not fun to be a portent of doom, Mr. Barbera said. And even now in these doomlike times, we in the forecasting profession say it wont last.
Stephen Jarislowsky is not stupid. People may not like his conclusions, but he is correct.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov writes:
Who was it that said, "If you owe a hundred dollars, it's your problem, but if you owe a million dollars, it's the bank's problem"?
J. Paul Getty
What Quote: Vast archive of quotes by famous personalities from all over the world - "If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100..." and other quotes by J. Paul Getty
Another poster claimed deep
recessions last 18-21 months
or so. Weren't they still denying
recession in mid 2008 ? Then
conveniently declared it started
in December of 2007, therefore
it must almost be over now. Didn't
we have 3% + GDP growth in the
2nd qtr of 2008 ?
@ meta-
re: "cost of land delta"...
What layer of the business are you in?
hong konger | 01.03.09 - 12:55 pm | #
I don't even see the applicability. The cost of the retail square footage UK v US doesn't have any effect on the savings to be realized when the ratio is 8:1. Tthe US could lose 2.5 sq ft per person and still be 7 times more over retailed vice UK whereas 2.5 sq ft per person in the UK is the entirety of their retail space.
Didn't
we have 3% + GDP growth in the
2nd qtr of 2008 ?
Chuck
About 2.8%.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2008/pdf/gdp308f_fax.pdf
JR(Very Good) writes:
\tAnd the scariest and most depressing part is that this was probably not a conspiracy, in total, but rather just the way human nature works.
A person's view changes as they increase in wealth, until they realize that they are nature's winners and those with less money are just whiny, grasping usurpers. This phenomenon is too weird to believe unless you've seen it, which is probably why the world endlessly cycles through disasters.
JR | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | #
Read Chomsky. He doesn't believe in conspiracy either. Rather - to succeed in those "areas" you have to already have incorporated the values necessary to perform and exist in that realm.
hong konger(Good) writes:
What layer of the business are you in?
architect and former hong konger myself. lived on castle road (wai sing doe, above caine rd) for 3 years.
"Temperatures were below zero overnight in Europe"
Be careful about that temperature figure - in the past, Americans have drawn false conclusions when reading that a temperature is under zero - in the entire world, apart from the U.S., under zero means 0° C, or the freezing point of water.
And these days, a lot of English language writers aren't even aware of Fahrenheit, except as an obsolete and strange system formerly used by their parents or grandparents.
Americans often have little idea how exceptional their society is - basically no one else on the planet even knows what a yard or pound is, or how many ounces are in a pint - which was confusing enough even before the UK finally went metric.
Sure, Jarislowsky is not stupid. He's rich. He has a Harvard MBA, just like Bush and Paulson. Perhaps a better word is wrong-headed. He's theoretically correct but his remedy, which he admits he hates, is ridiculous and morally wrong.
CR, I hope you won't mind some amateur sociology.
Making the bed this morning, I noticed a tear in one of the sheets. I thought, "I can patch that" and then mentally stepped back in surprise--I don't patch stuff. At least, I haven't since I was a starving grad student.
Question for most of you, I'm curious...what are you doing differently now than you were this time last year, in terms of spending?
If you're holing up on a farm off the grid and stockpiling ammo, ok, but please don't riff on that. This question is aimed more at the average CR reader. I'm curious about the more subtle changes.
Thanks Popeye.
That happened 30 years ago. A bit late for that one.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
Sorry. Operation Floodgate II
If you're holing up on a farm off the grid and stockpiling ammo, ok, but please don't riff on that. This question is aimed more at the average CR reader. I'm curious about the more subtle changes.
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:24 pm | #
Define 'average'.
Hi Jes,
This might put me in the "crazy paranoid" camp, but I live in a marginal neighborhood in Chicago, and I just got a taser, and a home security system which includes a panic button that calls the police if I press it (such as while moving from my car to my home.)
As far as spending, I was already pretty frugal, but yeah, I am getting even cheaper. I used to spend probably a couple of hundred a month going out to eat; that is probably down to 50 bucks. And in general, where I used to think twice before buying stuff, I now think three or four times.
This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:45 pm | #
Dawg - how so?
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
@ Rent-to-own
They also have smaller domiciles to store shit, thus are generally 'weaker' consumers.
But the original notion posted above that they have less room to fail, so to speak, still holds true I think.
....this past week we had an enormous amount of looky-loo traffic. More walk-in traffic this past week than during the past two months. Most looking for small lots (1.25 acres - thereby allowing a well) and ANY kind of structure.
There's a worry out there - ppl are looking for cheap land with sun & water.
Obama's economic stimulus plan includes computerizing medical records.
Can anyone explain to me how computerizing medical records stimulates the economy? Besides the $10/hr. data entry wages, that is.
I don't get why everyone is so obsessed with my health records.
Rob Dawg(Good) writes:
\t The cost of the retail square footage UK v US doesn't have any effect on the savings to be realized when the ratio is 8:1. Tthe US could lose 2.5 sq ft per person and still be 7 times more over retailed vice UK whereas 2.5 sq ft per person in the UK is the entirety of their retail space.
yes but aren't you looking at the wrong metric? if one were to consider the impact of declining retail on two different economies why look at sq. ft? development patterns are not comparable. my point was simply that the costs to buy the land, build, have employees, and be taxed are all more important than total sq. ft. I didn't say s.f. was irrelevant.
Jes,
Differences for me..
Minimal spending. No big ticket item buys until I see it at 80% off. 50 less roundtrip business trips thruout US. 20K miles less driven.
I see no need for stuff and more need for simple. Xmas spending down 60%..craigslist is always first look if anything needed.
Less consumerism...Plus a plan on putting up a couple websites to push people towards no debt solutions and not banking with any bailout banks...working on sites now....
I'm now in enemy of the fed....
They are screwing savers while rewarding pigs..big no no in my book...
Jes -
I was always frugal. Until I can learn to live w/o food, I'm spending as much as always.
Jes writes:
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:35 pm | #
Agreed.
Doc at the Radar Station writes:
"To properly assess whether the "banks aren't lending", we need more information-are individuals and businesses being turned down for loans because they are credit worthy or not?"
All I know is that I got a call from one of my credit card companies the other day - practically begging me spend money on their card. I'm one of those deadbeats that doesn't carry a balance, so I guess they are just hoping for the fee income. I have no idea what my credit score is, but it's probably pretty OK.
Another round for the house!
Earthstrange | 01.03.09 - 12:34 pm | #
Bottoms up!
The bottom line of the situation is a huge short volatility trade by the US Government.
The US Government has replaced all the dummies who attempted to capitalized on short term arbitrage situations and killed themselves. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve holds short volatility bets that were placed during a period of low volatility. For these bets to pay off at anywhere near par, volatility will have to decline to some reasonable relationship to volatility when the bets were placed.
Given that future volatility is unknown and the US Government has gone all-in; my working thesis is to trade the TBT and the TLT against the US Government.
The weakness of my strategy is I have no idea when the weakness of my opponent, the US Treasury, will be discovered. Thus, I am willing to assume short term losses to discover if my trade location vs. the 10 year note is defendable.
My assumption is that with rates at current levels AND with the context of larger players (banks & hedge funds) demanding safety, my trade location in the TBT's of 36 area is good. However, I thought it was good in the 42 area. That punch in the nose cost me $3,500...
An average CR reader , I suspect, works in a city at a white collar job (or retired from), is older than 30, and does not have noticeably advanced subsistence skills (hunting, gathering, sharpening flints)
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:35 pm | #
So what? Me and my frightened neighbors are well armed, mostly military veterans and willing to defend our homes. Not with flint and steel, just organization and ammo.
Question for most of you, I'm curious...what are you doing differently now than you were this time last year, in terms of spending?
Jes | 01.03.09 - 1:24 pm | #
nothing really. live in a low-cost area in the upper midwest, single and I rent. save ~40% of income, 70% of that is in cash/checking/MMA for now. only thing I'm newly considering is paying off student loan debt (under 20k). am also glad I'm not graduating from an expensive PhD into this economy instead, as I would have been had I not started reading "fringe" blogs circa 2005.
Small israeli ground force enter gaza.
It is beginning.
(from Jarislowsky, above)
Q How long do you predict the recession/depression will last?
A We're in for at least two years if it's handled right. If it's not handled right, we can be sitting here seven or eight years from now.
...I think most agree this is NOT being handled correctly. Hmmm...about 2015 then?
Harndog: any notion on your part that you will succeed against the US Govt and Fed is wrong (makes wiggling gesture with pinkies)
Jes,
you would be surprised..
Some of us over 30 year old white collared boys have taken out 300lb boars with 44 mags, a big muley with a 30.30 or can catch more lobster snorkeling than most scuba divers...
painting a picture of a landscape is hard to do at night...I believe thier are all types here...such is blogging and the internet
Rob-
I don't know if meta is defending, explaining or attacking, but, in any case, for a developer/banker, this would be a rationale to explain-away the problems you discuss so frequently on your blog.
It's a fairly sophisticated type of analysis, though (excluding how sloppy it is), which is why I asked the question.
I have my own thoughts on using deltas in improvement formation, but, I'll defer to meta since you asked him directly and I don't know what he's driving at exactly as we may use these concepts in different ways.
This nation is only governable when the people consent. California's million little Atlases are on the verge of saying no.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:45 pm | #
Dawg - how so?
Feckless Ness | 01.03.09 - 1:32 pm | #
I'm seeing it so far in little things. Shifting to internet purchases to avoid sales taxes. Tax consequence questions being asked as part of my proposals. Professionals not working as hard for the last dollar when half gets taken away. Off the books transactions. I also hear my friends talking about investing anywhere except California. But most of what I hear is about the current fiscal crisis that is up to $45 billion. There is no willingness to adsorb our fair share. And it isn't just this massive crushing debt being placed on us, it is the breaking of the social compacts. I've been paying CA taxes for a quarter century in part because I supported the idea of free higher education. This years' free education at UCLA is costing $17k. Next year is going to be much much more. Break the compacts and you lose the consent of the governed. What are they gonna do? Recall the National Guard from the 'Stan, give them live ammo and explain to them that their new jobs are to enforce tax confiscation because their old jobs are gone anyway? Which way do you think they'd point those guns?
Eric(Excellent) writes:
Why not just rip up the money and throw it in the garbage?
Because then it wouldn't be available for people's well-connected cronies to spend.
well if the system was actually open about what they were really doing I think people would be able to stomach these things. It's not, and has never been, about credit....it's about solvency.
Truly we would be able to have a legitimate recovery if the system allowed itself to take the losses and fessed up to it's gorging of itself for those all important fee collection.
This will need to be done several more times just this year alone.
Can't have a real bottom without it.
Ciao
MS
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/01/02/article-1103843-02ED34AE000005DC-128_468x342.jpg
well, at least we are a well educated, hard working folk
Real hunters use spears with stone points. While wearing boarskin loincloths.
WARRI, Nigeria (AP) - An oil pipeline was blown up with dynamite in Nigeria's restive south, a military official said Saturday. Regional army chief Brig. Gen. Wuyep Rimtip said he did not know how severe the damage was or if there were any casualties as a result of the blast late Friday in Delta...
Add Gaza= Crude @ $70 soo
Re medical records - there's a surprising amount of manual labor. For instance, it might cost $22/claim for processing alone. Also, an automated standardized metric makes fraud detection easier.
Like click- fraud, there are incentives for most parties to look the other way, or misrepresent the true level of fraud.
Imagine the Russian Revolution with iPhones, iPods and the Internet. It'd end before it started.
By Simon Kennedy
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said an economic recovery may not begin until next year and that policy makers have the scope to cut interest rates if inflation slows further.
The economic outlook is unusually uncertain, Papademos said in an interview with Germanys WirtschaftsWoche magazine published today. It is quite possible that the recovery will not start until the beginning of 2010.
Having reduced their key interest rate by 175 basis points since early October to 2.5 percent, ECB policy makers enter the new year under pressure to cut more deeply amid Europes first recession in 15 years. Retail sales fell for a seventh month in December, manufacturing shrank at a record pace and lending to the private sector stagnated, reports showed this past week.
The economy may be even weaker in 2009 than the ECBs prediction of last month for a contraction of about 0.5 percent, Papademos said. The Frankfurt-based central bank will act appropriately and has room to do so if the slowdown threatens price stability, which the ECB defines as inflation just below 2 percent in the medium term, he said.
I understand the medical record privacy issue. You'd be surprised how many people have STDs.
the financial system must be un locked
"We" should create the
Bank of the United States of America
by-pass the banks that have become the whores of the shadow banking world...
and loan directly to, individuals, businesses, students borrowing money to go to trade schools or colleges, etc
Investment banks could borrow money from the Bank of the United States of America under strict terms
It is quite possible that the recovery will not start until the beginning of 2010.
Righto, ol Chap. It's just a matter of flipping the switch back on, isn't it now?
betcha Gordon Browne would like to have all that gold he sold for about $300 an ounce back for this.
I think he was put in charge because of that bone-headed move. You sold it so you deal with not having it.
Ciao
MS
mock turtle: respecting your view, on what basis do you think your idea will work? How could it possibly be that banks/banking at all is 1) necessary, 2) prudent, 3) possible?
What are they gonna do? Recall the National Guard from the 'Stan, give them live ammo and explain to them that their new jobs are to enforce tax confiscation because their old jobs are gone anyway? Which way do you think they'd point those guns?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 1:48 pm | #
Remember Kent State? Most cops on the job now are too young to have learned that lesson. I know first-hand that cops behave like good soldiers. They follow orders and they don't challenge authority. There are some 800,000 cops in the U.S., all trained to respond to conflict with force.
Cops don't have a lot of conflict resolution skills in their toolbag. If civil protest breaks out, it will require uncommon leadership on both sides not to escalate into a dangerous situation.
The 8-1 ratio of retail space between the US and the UK is obviously not an apples to apples comparison because land is much cheaper in the US, due to lower population density and laxer greenbelting policies. However, I don't think there's any way the differences in land availability and use can explain that kind of difference. Crudely, you'd expect total expenditures on retail space to be similar and there's no way the price difference is 8-1.
While European shops are certainly more crowded than US shops I've never had a problem finding or buying stuff in Europe due to small shops and I've travelled there quite a bit. Shop hours can a problem, especially for a traveller and especially in Germany, but that's an unrelated problem.
Regarding the question of how long this will take. naked capitalism referenced a paper by Reinhart & Rogoff a couple days ago. Trough to peak unemployment for the average financial crisis is 4.8 years. Average peak to trough home price declines are 6 years. Peak to trough equity price declines are 3.4 years. And average peak to trough real per capita GDP declines are 1.9 years.
Of course, those are averages and this crisis would look to be global and therefore considerably worse than average.
10 page pdf:
http://ws1.ad.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf
Morocco, come the next revolution the masters will shut down civilian access to the internet and cells phones, don't you think?.
I still see a bunch of folks driving around in expensive cars they can't possibly be paying for since they don't seem to have jobs. That bubble hasn't even burst yet, and the artists formerly known as the Big Three expect to sell new ones? Let's face it, they're going to give those cars away at the taxpayers' expense. There's not going to be a revolution in this country...instead, there's going to be a civil war. Case in point, my brother, who has never owned a gun in his life, and has only shot one once, or twice, went out and bought one when he was certain Obama was going to win. He's a big Palin fan. He's also a bankrupt builder who's suicidal.
As Jas says, born & bred dopes.
Morocco, come the next revolution the masters will shut down civilian access to the internet and cells phones, don't you think?.
Yeah, if there was a revolution, but the mere fact that those distractions exist will preclude said revolution.
Everybody's too busy text messaging and blogging to storm the Capital.
Morocco Bama: didja remind him that the thing works differently from the movies, that you actually have to load it and when the rounds have been spent, reloaded?
While European shops are certainly more crowded than US shops I've never had a problem finding or buying stuff in Europe due to small shops
Maximizing floor space. Being efficent. 8 to 1 does neither. Cut the sf by 50 to 75%, maximize floor space and the end results will be more profitable.
When they shut down the cell phones and internet, maybe enough of them will come up out of the ether and do something about it.
I still see a bunch of folks driving around in expensive cars they can't possibly be paying for since they don't seem to have jobs.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:13 pm | #
yes... an unsustainable lifestyle is unsustainable. of course it does get the most "bang" for its buck; for a while it can even imitate celebrity and keep up with the jonesing...
I am puzzled by what the Obama folks will be doing that will reward good behavior. If the last six months of the Bush Admin econ policies are anything, they are inconsistent. Inconsistency, as we know from the Depression, freezes up people's resolve to act. Therefore nothing happens.
So much coming out of the Obama camp now seems contradictory or at least inconsistent. Trade and tax policy, not to mention treatment of insolvent states and burgs and health care. If that pattern continues then no matter how many billions are thrown at the economy, not much will happen because people will be uncertain as to what's going on. They won't spend until certain what they are getting.
My guess: years of below water economic (in)activity. Followed by . . .
Comrade Volker, I don't talk to him. I heard this from my mother. He and I had a falling out after 911. His exact words were "go back to your cave Osama, and let this family heal." So, I went back to my cave....but I don't think they've healed.
blonderengel writes:
Detoxify:
http://www.official-detox-pads.com/
blonderengel | 01.03.09 - 10:04 am | #
great vid, very interesting
surprised nobody has remarked on it
stunning predictions for '09
Comrade Volker the Viking
im not smart...i dont know things for certain, often i guess
so i cant answer your question about how my proposal is 2 prudent, or 3 possible
i can certainly say it is necessary as it is clear our current banking system is locked up motionless like a deer caught in the headlights
failure to unfreeze the system means this collapse will be far worse than the great depression
besides...the taxpayers are clearly on the hook for this entire mess...
the illusion that the banksters deserve a lions share of the nations wealth because they are the risk takers
this has been proven to be bunk
so The Bank of the United States of America might as well earn interest on the repayment of debts
morocco,
are you speaking of Stupid Treasury Decisions..if so yes we all have std's..
"Cops don't have a lot of conflict resolution skills in their toolbag. If civil protest breaks out, it will require uncommon leadership on both sides not to escalate into a dangerous situation."
Uncommon leadership we don't have. The police that stay at work (which as per Katrina will be a minority) will be keeping their heads down. Rural America will solve their own problems. If and when chaos raises its ugly head in the cities, the first in will be the alphabet armies (ATF, FEMA, FBI) afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
actually have to load it and when the rounds have been spent, reloaded?
Comrade Volker the Viking
9 mil. next to bed, locked, loaded and chambered. 10 fully loaded mags in same drawer. Ammo dump in closet of 1500+ rds. SO can reload each mag as released creating non-stop fire for approx. 90 mins. Then I'm fucked
on the emergence of underground economies-- we lived in a small town in the UK back in the 80's. The Brits have a horrendous VAT tax-- 15%-- on pretty much everything-- goods and services. So once the shopkeepers "knew" you, it was quite common to be asked "will this be a (wink-wink)cash sale?" If so-- no VAT charged.
On the mending sheets/changing habits Q.-- well, at the moment am debating trying an idea to salvage a perfectly good pair of glasses. The prescription's still good but the plastic lenses are coated with that anti-glare stuff, & it's starting to wear off so the lenses are getting cloudy. Someone suggested using auto polish, to gently buff the old coating off.
Haven't tried it yet, but it'd save a couple hundred bucks if it works.
Also wonder if there's a resurgence of interest/sales for all those "Mother Earth-ey" type survival guides like all the communes used in the 60's.
& speaking of experiments from 30 years ago & Tim Leary, by coincidence, am just now reading this book about the history of LSD & the experimental research by the intel community. Apparently there was some spook named Creasy whose wowsa plan was to replace conventional warfare with chemical warfare (in the "blow their minds not their villages" sense) to "pacify" combatants, w/out destroying any valuable assets.
(wonder if "somebody" is dusting off that old file about now-- if we were all ridin' on the magic bus, what matters the price of oil??
)
John R(Va) writes: I am puzzled by what the Obama folks will be doing that will reward good behavior.
Wha? Man, dey gwynne be like spit on a hot griddle, no time for thinking things through. Just do. Then get on the idiot box and make 'em feel good about it. Shit, it'll all work out, relax.
are you speaking of Stupid Treasury Decisions..if so yes we all have std's..
LOL. They should be labeled as medical conditions when you consider the effect these decisions will have on our collective health.
The 8-1 ratio of retail space between the US and the UK is obviously not an apples to apples comparison because land is much cheaper in the US, due to lower population density and laxer greenbelting policies.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:10 pm | #
Yes and no. "Land" is cheaper except when it isn't. Our retail isn't all in the outer zone. Is Rodeo Drive reall that much cheaper than Saville Row? The UK has the population density of Conneticut. Is Conneticut over retailed? Are their land use policies that much laxer?
And once they have the dollars, the numbers are so big that there's really nowhere else for them to go but Treasurys. I'm not defending it, because it's clearly insane long term, but there it is.
MLM | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 12:41 pm | #
You have identified the situation as clearly untenable - yet is your expectation that it will continue indefinitely?
I'm just saying the dilithium crystals canna take the strain...
9 mil. next to bed, locked, loaded and chambered. 10 fully loaded mags in same drawer. Ammo dump in closet of 1500+ rds. SO can reload each mag as released creating non-stop fire for approx. 90 mins. Then I'm fucked
That's overcapacity. It'll only take a second for a cluster bomb to eviscerate you, or a couple of seconds for a tank to crush your head.
afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
Black Star Ranch | 01.03.09 - 2:21 pm | #
Don't overlook or fail to account for the thousands of Gulf War I vets, Bosnian Exercise, Gulf War II, and others as well. We are sprinkled with vets of all ages and experiences. I may be wrong, but I am thinking many will drop the pretense and join the defense of community without outside interference. So, one one large level I agree with your point.
People remember Leary for LSD but he was an Internet pioneer, too.
"the most dangerous man in America" - Richard Nixo
.....may I ask a dumb question? What happens if you buy long term bonds at the prevailing pathetic yield and inflation kicks in big-time before they mature? Do you just "take it in the shorts"?
I don't know about Timothy Leary...Pink Floyd mixed with Mary Jane were responsible for my deprogramming.
breaking news. Israeli's launches ground invasion. After 2000+ yrs of stife, one would think that BOTH sides could find peace.
Morocco Bama 2:27 pm |
"That's overcapacity. It'll only take a second for a cluster bomb to eviscerate you, or a couple of seconds for a tank to crush your head."
that why asymmetrical war was invented
meta-
Thanks. I can see your how you are using the methodology now. That's more robust.
You and I are looking at the same problem on different sides of the glass. However, given that you were referring to the cost structure and indigenous development issues in the UK, I understand your point of view more clearly vis-a-vis Rob (whose views I also value).
It appears to be a sound rebuttal.
(Personal musing directed at no one:)
I think one of the primary problems we have is that we are encouraged/forced by rising dirt prices (which are politically expedient and useful to maintain the health of the collateral underlying our banking system) to design and manufacture a finished good that has a useful life of 200-500 years while glossing over the economic variability over that time frame because the money is cheap and the political will is strong.
Additionally, the geometric rise in the cost per sq. of the raw dirt facilitated by credit expansion and use of high leverage per project demands a "go for broke" build-out strategy when an incremental one would be much preferable in terms of smoothing out cash flows.
Following metabear's methodology, we would design an entire project, then break it up over 75 years and re-cash flow each section when the next cycle rolled around.
In America, we do the project design, then double it, then rush like hell to get it done tout de suite while going three times over budget and being forced to add derivative layers of debt and financing just to get the C.O.
IOWs- we're not good at incremental change in America. We are good at manic and irrational behavioral patterns though. So, we got that goin' for us;)
Israel/Gaza breaking link:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
just watched a movie called "money as debt." it's available on the web. have any of ya'll seen it? i'd appreciate your thoughts. my initial reaction after seeing it was to do cartwheels to my safe so that i could enthusiastically clutch my gold coins.
that why asymmetrical war was invented
How dare you call a patriot a terrorist! Anyway, keeping a loaded gun in the bedside table is not asymmetrical warfare.
Uncommon leadership we don't have. The police that stay at work (which as per Katrina will be a minority) will be keeping their heads down. Rural America will solve their own problems. If and when chaos raises its ugly head in the cities, the first in will be the alphabet armies (ATF, FEMA, FBI) afterwhich there will be no law outside of "neighborhood law" consisting of old cagey Nam Vets looking for one last engagement.
Black Star Ranch | 01.03.09 - 2:21 pm | #
Depends on the type of incident as to how many cops are on the job. Cops couldn't get to work after Katrina - police stations and vehicles were all under water. Communication systems down. There is no command and control in that situation.
We've had local protests that went well because the organizers kept the cops in the loop - contacted them in advance, advised of their plans, and cooperated with police during the event. The leaders even wore clothing that enabled the cops to find and contact them on site. Groups can stay organized via cell phone, GPS, etc., and even move out of the way when cops need to isolate troublemakers.
This is the kind of leadership I'm referring to - a willingness to work together to keep everybody safe.
Israel launches Gaza ground assault
The Press Association - 9 minutes ago
link
Feckless Ness: Safe? There is no such thing as safe, there is only what is. This is a stew pot and there is no escape. Don't be surprised at the thin veneer of civilization once scraped loose from the finish. Badge or no badge, age notwithstanding, education irrelevant, people are people.
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes:
Depends on the type of incident as to how many cops are on the job. Cops couldn't get to work after Katrina - police stations and vehicles were all under water. Communication systems down. There is no command and control in that situation.
It'll be great fun shooting the poor and the disenfranchised and singing "America Fuck Yeah!" for a few days. Then there's that whole "nobody cares and "the money ran out" aspect. How many months will your troops fight without pay?
We've had local protests that went well because the organizers kept the cops in the loop
I bet being largely affluent and white helped a lot too.
Groups can stay organized via cell phone, GPS, etc., and even move out of the way when cops need to isolate" troublemakers.
Don't you work for the cops? What are you protesting, negroes roaming free outside of prisons and bantustans?
This is the kind of leadership I'm referring to - a willingness to work together to keep everybody safe.
And by safe, you mean, under control and doing what they're told.
Rent to own - Anecdotal evidence--here in So Cal there is a Brit-style grocery store, "Fresh & Easy" that is 1/4 the size of a typical US grocery. Seemed to be doing well but due to the crash probably won't survive. Nice to shop at (packaging aimed at small families {opposite of Costco], self checkout, only a couple choices of any product). I wonder how it was doing before the crash started. Was it taking off in popularity?
many will drop the pretense and join the defense of community
Volker the Viking | 01.03.09 - 2:27 pm | #
I concur.
Major Kong(Unrated) writes:
Israel launches Gaza ground assault
Now the question is, Hezbullah.
Rounding American's up would be like herding cats.
In my part of US, law enforcement as well as those that have served in Armed Services have bonded over generations.
If The Fed's every won't to bring the US population under their complete control, it will probably be cutting the food chain, Oh damn, that they have already started.
Jas, Where are you?
Black Star Ranch,
In a word, Yes. Inflation is detrimental to fixed income investments. The interest payments to you stay the same, while the purchasing power of those payments plummets.
Question Rob-
If one could package up the largest 30 MSAs in America, what would the artificial land mass's area encompass?
A few Western European countries, I would guess.
Now, add the secondary and tertiary markets that encompass the bulk of our country's land mass and you'd probably get an equilibrium ratio of 5:1 with UK.
Not that equilibriums mean anything in near time, of course.
Gotta scoot, thanks meta, rob and FE.
by Jan 20 it will be done - I've found it interesting that Egypt keeps the southern Gaza border closed whilst Israel does the same with the northern border - and the observes - as the civilian population trapped in Gaza is all but annihilated
Byzantine: "China, which in October replaced Japan as the United States' largest creditor, has increased its holdings by 42 percent over the past year; Britain and the Caribbean banking countries more than doubled their holdings"
Why are they doing this?
And by safe, you mean, under control and doing what they're told.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:45 pm | #
No, Byz. I mean safe. We don't all have to behave badly to get our point across. There was a little fellow in India who proved that, IIRC.
The momster just spent 3 or 4 days in the hospital at taxpayer expense, including putting in a pacemaker, which she had been thinking about anyhow before the mugging. How much did this cost? I dunno, got no bill. $20-30 grand, I assume; she was in the intensive care unit. Maybe twice that. Now, if that much money was spent on crime investigation after the first flimflam success (and there were some clues to go on), watching her house etc, methinks the bad guys would have been caught. At far lower an expense.
And, as to the let 'em go judge. Hah, I'd just like them to be caught so we knew who they are.
Just as the banks are insolvent, the justice system is right here, right now broken and getting worse. Do we not have anarchy because the cops are not staring us in the face or because most people follow the real rules (as opposed to what you read in the criminal statutes) most of the time? I think the latter. I also think that the authorities will provide enough food to avoid starvation, which is often the trigger for riotous behavior.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
Why are they doing this?
Vendor financing for their export economy for now.
I think we will see US-directed cashflows drop precipitously some time in the next 18 months (and I am very conservative with that number).
Someone paid Egypt a lot of something?
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes:
No, Byz. I mean safe. We don't all have to behave badly to get our point across. There was a little fellow in India who proved that, IIRC.
LOL, w.ever. What's it like being a puppet on the hand of a robber? Your antics in the name of white racial paranoia wow them from Sugarland to Maricopa County while Ben and Hank make off with the loot. SUCKER. Hope you haven't spent that pension in advance, they'll rob you of that too.
If Ghandi objected, you'd put him in a free speech zone and ignore him.
ground assault in Gaza
YouTube - The Doors - The end
over by Monday, just a weekend news cycle event kicked off (pun intended) just prior to NFL playoffs
bread and circus and all that
Morocco wrote,
(1500 rounds )..That's overcapacity. It'll only take a second for a cluster bomb to eviscerate you, or a couple of seconds for a tank to crush your head.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:27 pm | #
Mock wrote
Thats why they invented asymetrical warfare!
Morocco wrote
"How dare you call a patriot a terrorist! Anyway, keeping a loaded gun in the bedside table is not asymmetrical warfare.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:35 pm | #
mock says
Morocco you missed the point.
You are the first one to utter the word terrorist on this subject. Using asymmetrical tactics does not make one a terrorist.
You dont take a tank on with a 9 and 1000 rounds
The patriot should USE an asymetrical response...get it?
btw
How dare you tell that poor patriot that he will be eviscerated and crushed by a tank.
you are not a terrorist are you?
If Ghandi objected, you'd put him in a free speech zone and ignore him.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Looks like Madoff took down a bank :
Austria takes over bank hit by Madoff case
Austria takes over bank hit by Madoff case - CNN.com
Byz, I'm not expecting my CalPERS pension to survive, nor do I expect Social Security to be there.
I don't recall insulting you. Why so touchy?
Egypt doesn't want Hamas jihadism to foment radicalism in Egyptian peasantry. Also Hamas tunnels were violation of Egyptian sovereignty; just like any govt Mubarak's party doesn't want guerrilla operations running from it's domain.
BH, be careful when choosing your heroes. Leary was just another manipulator of the mass media, "a counterculture salesman, and he wore, on every occasion, the same blissed-out smile, a rictus somewhere between a beatific, what-me-worry grin and a movie star's frozen stare into the flashbulbs. One of his ex-wives described it as âthe smile of the ego actually eating the personality."
Great article from the New Yorker:
Acid Redux : The New Yorker
Or, as Owsley said:
"Leary was a fool. Drunk with 'celebrity-hood' and his own ego, he became a media clown-and was arguably the single most damaging actor involved in the destruction of the evanescent social movement of the '60's. Tim, with his very public exhortations to the kids to 'tune in, turn on and drop out,' is the inspiration for all the current draconian US drug laws against psychedelics. He would not listen to any of us when we asked him to please cool it, he loved the lime-light and relished his notoriety... I was not a fan of his."
Weren't a lot of Gazans just trying to buy stuff in Egypt? Last year, anyhow.
Gaza. . .anihilation. . .didn't someone in Germany have a word for that? Don't want to evoke Godwin's law. . .
BTW - I work for a cop shop, but I'm about as different from their culture as one can be. This must be what Margaret Meade felt like.
FecklessNess
i agree with your notion about local leadership communicating and working with authorities who will be stretched thin and the need to try and maintain civility and order in the face of a breakdow
Thanks, Mock. It sure beats the alternative. ; )
Outsider writes:Obama's economic stimulus plan includes computerizing medical records.
Can anyone explain to me how computerizing medical records stimulates the economy? Besides the $10/hr. data entry wages, that is.
I don't get why everyone is so obsessed with my health records.
That is simple to answer. The reality is Obama is sticking that in because it needs to be done and has been for the last ten/twenty years.
The reason it hasn't been done because the insurance industry doesn't want it done. So the Republicans make sure it isn't. The Democrats think this is as good way to ram it through.
And aside, the reason insurance companies don't like computerized medical records is simple; insurance companies don't make a profit by paying for efficient medical care, they profit by creating a Byzantine maze of rules and bureaucracy in order to strip off premiums. IE, they're damming the river of cash and siphoning off as much profit as possible. Computerized medical records strikes at the heart of that.
Also longer term setting up a system to do that is a large undertaking that would employ largish numbers of people. And efficiency gains will reduce the drag on the rest of the economy.
That's the hope anyways. Large projects like that often end up as expensive clusterf's. But then again there is the refrain that nothing worthwhile would have been attempted if people knew how hard it was going to be.
And of course the reality is no one is interested in you medical records. I know a paralegal who specializes in going through corporate email archives, he says the personal stuff is mind numbingly boring. Now imagine what your medical records are like.
Feckless Ness, don't take it personally, at least he rated you "Excellent". And good luck with the 3% @ 50.
What's a cop shop?
BLT's for everyone.
Buy the banks, fire the management, replace them with government employees.
If you can't trust the banks, and you cannot, then you can't trust anything.
V - 3@50's for cops - I'm a civilian. And I doubt they'll have it much longer. It put a strain on cities long before the economy turned south.
dax - Police Department.
You have identified the situation as clearly untenable - yet is your expectation that it will continue indefinitely?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.03.09 - 2:25 pm | #
I absolutely do not expect it to continue indefinitely. But looking at the situation, I expect the straw that breaks the camel's back to come from some other direction, not FCB's suddenly going on buyer's strike. Not sure yet what direction that is, but it's out there lurking.
The coming wave of Alt-A defaults oughta do it.
Feckless Ness(Excellent) writes:
I don't recall insulting you. Why so touchy?
You're a willing servant of a corrupt state? As the armed robbers say, you're "holding down the crowd" while Ben and Hank clean out everyone's wallets.
Look around you, your nation is a corrupt, racist prison camp watched by millions of cameras. You should contemplate suicide every night if you're part of that.
I mean, get a grip on the world around you. Nobody but other cops, cop-fanciers and a bunch of aging white racists thinks of the police as their friends. Everyone else has become your enemy because you hold them in captivity while their children's futures are looted.
What are you thinking? Don't you have some kind of actual talent other than spending money you don't have to lock people up in living death in prisons you can't afford?
Feckless Ness
i worked as a juvenile correctional officer (read counselor, guard, basketball coach and cop on the cell block) with 64 teenagers in a juvenile prison
at least half of the staff i worked with were retired military, or reserve police officers etc
yeah their skill set was good but different then mine...no into negotiation, problem resolution
fast on the draw so to speak, but when being reasonable and negotiations broke down they were great guys and gals to have by your side when the rockin and rollin had to start
Israeli spokesman on CNN now. Notice yellow tie. It's a signal to superiors back home.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Very Good) writes:
\t
\t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage | \t01.03.09 - 3:18 pm | #
Comrade, you need a time out.
Feckless Ness,
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins writes:
"Feckless Ness(Excellent)... You're a willing servant of a corrupt state?"
Am I the only one enjoying the irony in this? Don't feel picked on, he says the same stuff about other professions he doesn't like.
But Feckless, I thought CalTrans workes were considered "Public Safety Workers", at least another Caltrans poster said so. Just want to have my facts straight, what is DBP formula for Caltrans, and does it include COLAs?
Comrade byzantine ruins
i agree with you that we are living in a corrupt state
but arent you being a bit tough on FN
just cause we might work with local authorities to keep order doesnt mean we agree with the black ops and bankster crowd
around my neighborhood the sheriffs department and her deputies are into community based policing and as a matter of survival treat the local citizens, regardless of reace, color, or creed or politics, pretty well
Don't be a bully, Byz. It's unbecoming.