Foreclosures: Movin' on up
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 01/05/2009 - 7:30pm (277 comments)
in
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first!
that non-confirming market not doing too well?
New record for NOD's...no video, just a link to a chart. (see URL)
Changed URL..
...to carlsworse
I'll take two!!
OOOOO....
I'll take 2 please. Can I get them to go?
Nostrovia,
Million dollar tract homes....still a long way to go!
So now they are priced at $700k or so...who thinks the bottom will occur when they hit $500k or so?
Comrade,
You owe me a coke.
crispy,
"Million dollar tract homes....still a long way to go!"
I know! I can hardly wait until we have $1M trailer...erm...manufactured homes.
Those tact homes are going to be a bargain then...
Nostrovia,
"when they hit $500k or so?"
for some reason $417k has a certain ring to it...
Capitalize the C
Meltdown Man,
That's happened to me TWICE today.
Nostrovia,
And by pre-bubble price-to-income ratios, you still need a stable $175K+ income to afford any of 'em...
cd
Do I hear 400k or less..anyone?? Maybe $300k...
Yeah $417k is the sweet spot right now
........seems since there's no appreciation anymore, payments on homes like these would get mighty tiring after awhile ..... my $2K payments seemed like highway robbery to me at the new millennium.
I love this guy. I watched all his videos.
This area looks like 90% of the "high-end homes" in Orange County and San Diego County. Its either slums, houses like the ones in the video or mansions.
Go north a little ways into Riverside County and you can get similar properties for under $300k.
Good thing Jim the Realtor has videography to fall back on when the bottom falls out.
Are those what people are calling "McMansions?" One of those, burnt umper, with the arched windows, looked like some doge's palace, in miniature.
Kinda wonder if homes are like new automobiles - worth only 80% the moment you drive it off the lot.
I could build that house exclusive of land for no more than 200K.
reptillian(Unrated) writes:
Are those what people are calling "McMansions?" One of those, burnt umper, with the arched windows, looked like some doge's palace, in miniature.
doge is one letter from dope
...and a new term is born, "Dope's palace"
in miniature.
Am I crazy for expecting a little room for 700k? Seriously. For that money I don't want the neighbors looking in the bathroom window (depending on the neighbor, of course).
O/T
Its in the mail!
The decision by Bernard Madoff and his wife to ship jewelry and others valuables to family and friends may land him behind bars sooner rather than later.
Assistant U.S. Attorney Marc Litt of the Southern District of New York told a magistrate judge Monday that Madoff and his wife Ruth mailed in excess of $1 million in valuables late last month despite a court order
Law.com - Prosecutor Seeks to Revoke Madoff's Bail for Mailing Valuables to Others
Who would want to pay to back up to Rancho Santa Fe Rd.?
I'm in Silicon Valley.
A house one block from my friend's house just sold (bank sale) for $800K. It had been foreclosed earlier this year with a loan balance of $942K. Original sale (new) in March '06 was $1.24 million.
I could give a dozen similar examples, including my own home (I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket).
Ugly.
Well we talked a lot about walking away...Now a company addresses the markets needs...novel. Will it work?
FORT MYERS - One overseas automaker isn't ignoring the economy. Hyundai is actually making it easier for customers who suddenly can't afford their cars anymore.
Hyundai calls its their "Assurance" program, run by a company called "Walkaway U.S.A." Customers can essentially do exactly that: return their car and walk away without losing money.
The program essentially provides insurance for the first year after purchase.
If the car owner loses their job, files bankruptcy, or becomes disabled, the car can be returned to the dealer.
I can hardly wait until we have $1M trailer...erm...manufactured homes.
We did. There was some oceanfront trailer park in FL that someone wanted to develop. They offered $1.4 million per trailer for people to leave.
I think the $1.4 Million per trailer offer was turned down by a majority of the park residents.
I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket.
And, completely un-Amerikan!
USATODAY.com - Mobile home madness: Prices top $1 million
Not what I am thinking of though
Barley,
Yeah. Boring 20% down, fixed 30-year mortgage. Plain vanilla. No cash-out. No refi. Totally un-American.
I actually kinda like that yellowish one.... Then again I'm not moving to carlsbad anytime soon....
.............
Jim where'd your truck go? People trust realtors that have their face on their business card (and just about everywhere else) and have great vehicles....
I know if I ever buy a house (god forbid) I'm going to use someone with a truck just like yours!
........
I can hardly wait until we have $1M trailer...erm...manufactured homes.
here we go... I think the residents rejected the $1 million per household err trailer-hold offer.
Trailer Park by the Sea, With Million-Dollar Plots : NPR
I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket.
Whats that mean? I'm new to real estate.....
.......
"I'm in Silicon Valley.
A house one block from my friend's house just sold (bank sale) for $800K. It had been foreclosed earlier this year with a loan balance of $942K. Original sale (new) in March '06 was $1.24 million.
I could give a dozen similar examples, including my own home (I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket).
Ugly."
Is this in the newer sub-divisions in San Ramon?
I was looking around there with a friend of mine and was seeing similar price drops.
proof positive that the bottom is off in the distance - nice dumps but 7 and change even in Carlsbad still too much -
...and a new term is born, "Dope's palace"
Keep that quiet now, before Jas adds it to his collection. Instead let's just use this code phrase, from badger boy's link:
triple wide
The two terms are practically synonymous, aren't they?
No, not San Ramon, but it's pretty much the same story everywhere. The price slide is far from over, IMO.
"slide" meaning "crash"
Johnny Lee writes:
I could build that house exclusive of land for no more than 200K.
Yea, cause you know exactly what's in that house and exactly what it takes to build by the short video. Whatever.
And even if you did build it for $200k what's wrong with making a profit?
Foreclosures: Movin' on up ~CR
LOL! I just re-read the head line. I think this CR's quite way of saying:
DA HAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA told you soo!
.........
Those are so UGLY! Not the worst I have seen, but try 400. No land, you hear traffic. Eek.
I like the tan house with the cigarette butt disposal in the front yard.
OK, the trailer thing was supposed to be a joke. I'm gonna be sicker now.
Although, I just can't get The Rockford Files theme out of my head now.
You lot deserve to have it stuck in your heads too:
YouTube -
Gah!
Nostrovia,
FT.com / Capital Markets - New York Fed starts $500bn home loans aid
New York Fed starts $500bn home loans aid
U.S. may take common equity stakes in banks, UBS says - MarketWatch
U.S. may take common equity stakes in banks: UBS
Price needs to be high enough to avoid nationalizing lenders, analysts say
Carlsba
Rockford Files...thanks for the song! I must be old...
"Johnny Lee writes:
I could build that house exclusive of land for no more than 200K.
Yea, cause you know exactly what's in that house and exactly what it takes to build by the short video. Whatever."
Our house was built in 1998. 2300 sq. feet. Similar cookie cutter McMansion type of home. We bought it for 408k and city records showed that cost to build including land was 200k.
200k in building costs is probably on the high side for that home.
There are many many neighborhoods like this....countless......and the most interesting thing about this video isn't the house he profiles.....
It's the first house he said sold for $799 a year ago.
They are $100 grand upsidedown and counting....meaning that the housing bust didn't end in 2007...It means it's still going on!!!
Without a huge down payment, they may as well have bought at the top. Any jobloss, sickness, divorce, means a very expensive forclosure.
My brother in law refinanced a house that was $750,000 at the top, appraised for $650,000 when he refied through his "conservative" credit union for $550,000 and the house currently Zillow's for $478,000 and wouldnt sell for more than $420,000.
Credit Unions or anyone else that has picked up the slack is soon to need a bailout.
The bust goes on.
"Price needs to be high enough to avoid nationalizing lenders, analysts say"
Yeah, cuz up till now we've just nationalized the debts and stuff...why go whole hog.
Nostrovia,
ades writes:
Foreclosures: Movin' on up ~CR
YouTube -
Interesting clip.
La Costa/South Carlsbad/North Encinitas seems like a nice area IMO (but then I live in Cupertino
). I contemplated escaping there from Silicon Valley very seriously a year ago (my job was very mobile), but the wife nixed that plan. I looked at real estate in La Costa Feb 2007. At that point anything nice in the ~2K Sq Ft range was selling between 750K-850K. It looks like prices have easily dropped about 20% from that point !
Coming from Silicon Valley, these houses seem downright palatial
and cheap !! Where I live, a 1500 Sq Ft Dump still lists for 1.1-1.3M, depending on the condition of the s***box.
Completely off topic:
...it results that the power of Congress to authorize expenditure of public moneys for public purposes is not limited by the direct grants of legislative power found in the Constitution.
The fact that the Court struck down the Act despite an expansive interpretation of the Spending Clause reflects the turmoil in the Courts thinking at this critical time. Indicating that turmoil and the fact that Butler was a turning point in the Courts thinking, in later jurisprudence Butler has been referenced to support expansion of authority under the Spending Clause (e.g., Steward Machine Company v. Davis, 301 U.S. 548 (1937)) and to dissent from such expansion (e.g. South Dakota v. Dole, 483 U.S. 203 (1987), OConnor dissent.) In her dissent, Justice OConnor noted that Butler was the last case in which the Supreme Court struck down an Act of Congress as beyond the authority granted by the Spending Clause.
This was part of a series of cases decided by the conservative Supreme Court of the time period which declared unconstitutional parts of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal legislation.
United States v. Butler - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
I have no idea why the first post was clipped:
Carlsbando.
Makes more sense Rob Dawg.
I wonder what Fred Sanford's place was going for at the peak...speaking of 70's shows.
Nostrovia,
Our house was built in 1998. 2300 sq. feet. Similar cookie cutter McMansion type of home. We bought it for 408k and city records showed that cost to build including land was 200k.
200k in building costs is probably on the high side for that home.
So what about your house. It's not this house. You can't tell what materials are in that house from the video.
Just because everyone here gets so giddy at the fall in prices and the bad news doesn't make it any easier on the people suffering through it.
For example, the first house he mentioned probably has those people waaay upside down.
$1 million homes. Let me know when $1 trillion homes are hurting and we can call TARP.
The National Recovery Administration (NRA), created in the United States of America under the 1933 National Industrial Recovery Act, was one of the New Deal programs of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his administration. The NRA allowed industries to create "codes of fair competition," which were intended to reduce "destructive competition" and to help workers by setting minimum wages and maximum weekly hours. It also allowed industry heads to collectively set minimum prices. In 1935, the United States Supreme Court unanimously declared the NRA as unconstitutional in the court case of Schechter Poultry Corp. v. US, on the grounds that it violated the Constitution's separation of powers.[1] The NRA quickly stopped operations, but many of its labor provisions reappeared in the Wagner Act of 1935.
Rob Dawg writes:
I have no idea why the first post was clipped:
I laughed the first time - reminded me of sheepeople as in "ba"
"Just because everyone here gets so giddy at the fall in prices and the bad news doesn't make it any easier on the people suffering through it."
Just because Vegas takes your money when you bet all on red and it ends up on black, doesn't make it any any easier on the people who lost their money.
theotherdeb wrote:
... I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket).
Ugly.
theotherdeb
Hey, theotherdeb!
You sure don't sound like an idiot to me, man! Good luck to you. You will work it out. I'm in my 60s and have been through lots. Ups and downs, you know about it. Actually, it seems like if one thing (say a mania) don't getcha than another thing will. The big thing is this: do your utmost to not let it mess with your head and get you down. Man, I know words are cheap and easy to type out on the fly. But that's one scrap of wisdom - I think - that I've picked up in all these weary ole years!
Good luck, Buddy!!
Don't ever throw in the towel!! Yes, cut your losses, but don't give up. You catch my drift I'm sure.
By the time it ended in May 1935, industrial production was 22% higher than in May 1933. On May 27, 1935, the NRA was found to be unconstitutional by a unanimous decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in the case of Schechter v. United States. On that same day, the Court unanimously struck down the Frazier-Lemke Act portion of the New Deal as unconstitutional. Some libertarians such as Richard Ebeling see these and other rulings striking down portions of the New Deal as preventing the U.S. economic system from becoming a planned economy corporate state.[8] Governor Huey Long of Louisiana said, "I raise my hand in reverence to the Supreme Court that saved this nation from fascism.
I miss EHP
That was me at 11:23PM and 11:25PM in case anyone thought it was Jas Jain.
My backyard. But LaCosta for all the cache of its name, is way East of I-5. Even Aviara (also East of I-5 is still holding up) Lets hold the excitement until similar properties west of I-5 begin to buckle. Ocean bluffs on Encinitas, Cardiff, or the promised land south Del Mar and LaJolla, anyone?
Just because Vegas takes your money when you bet all on red and it ends up on black, doesn't make it any any easier on the people who lost their money.
Because you can live on a roulette table? Two very different things.
"Just because everyone here gets so giddy at the fall in prices and the bad news doesn't make it any easier on the people suffering through it."
If these sheeple would have made money on their "investment" they would bragging to all their buddies about how smart they were. Sorry no sympathy here! Especially for someone who bought in 2007...knife catcher!
"Don't ever throw in the towel!!"
Home values will go up and you can get rich putting contracts on houses and remodeling kitchens. Life is all about hanging in there. The more lotto tickets you buy, the more likely you will win.
5-12-14-36-38-49
Bob, you clearly know diddly squat how these houses are built. I'm well aware how most McMansions in San Diego are built as I spent quite a lot of time looking at various areas of San Diego, including Carlsbad when we were thinking about moving there in 2005.
They were built in exactly the same way, using exactly the same materials with exactly the same type of workers as the home we bought from Pulte in Silicon Valley in 1998.
"They were built in exactly the same way, using exactly the same materials with exactly the same type of workers as the home we bought from Pulte in Silicon Valley in 1998.
Anonymous"
Do tell. Were they made out of abalone shells?
CRE link: (OH)
"The mall is about 25% occupied, she says"
Plaza Stops Redo of 860,000-SF Westland Mall
This is the way of life our government is protecting. If you go by the old 3-4x income rule I'd only be able to afford a home for a little under $300-400k.
I still think that is way too much.
These homes are going down to like $300-400k levels... and the banks are going to get destroyed. Who in their right mind is going to take on such debt levels?
(Yes I realize this is the main theme of this blog, right?).
Actually the banks will get destroyed and the taxpayer will a make them whole...
Those comments on housing in San Diego and Bay Area were me.
Bob, you clearly know diddly squat how these houses are built. I'm well aware how most McMansions in San Diego are built as I spent quite a lot of time looking at various areas of San Diego, including Carlsbad when we were thinking about moving there in 2005.
Don't assume anything. If you reread what I said I pointed out that you do not know either how this house was built from that video.
Not much is the same price as it was 10 years ago. You are the one that is thinking you can build that house for $200k. Fine, more power to you, but without all the facts you don't know how much it really costs to build.
Spouse has had chance in past of job in CA and has turned it down to stay in this area. Great for kids.
But for life of me, I can't figure out how these guys do even the reduced short sale prices. Mortgage broker here told us we could afford that much and I looked at him dumbstruck. And backing to a major road?
Nuts.
Krugman cites CR again:
More bubble memories - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
"(I got a lot of this insight from reading Calculated Risk.)"
He seems like an honorable fellow, just seriously confused about economics!
Building costs are now generally fixed and level. Land prices have fallen off a cliff. Home prices, due to land prices (location prices),
will continue to fall until land prices level out.
If these sheeple would have made money on their "investment" they would bragging to all their buddies about how smart they were. Sorry no sympathy here! Especially for someone who bought in 2007...knife catcher!
Yes, because everyone who makes money on a house is "sheeple" and they love to run their success in your face. :rolleyes:
Maybe someone saved money for 20% down (like stated above) and thought they were making a smart financial decision for their family. I heard Jim say those homes are in a good school district and that's not something to overlook.
"and thought they were making a smart financial decision for their family. "
Are they the same family that thought buying a Hummer was a good investment?
... this is what I don't get about America. There was no home-builder selling pre-fab homes for $150-200k in Southern California? You'd think they would've made a killing!
I laughed the first time - reminded me of sheepeople as in "ba"
\t Barley
Barley | 01.05.09 - 11:24 pm | #
The best are often accidents.
I'd like to remind everyone that what it cost to build these ummm, Carlsbadian Manses has nothing whatsoever to do with their price. It isn't just replacement cost but competition. If you can afford and are looking for houses in this strata then these are likely to be your last choice.
Pissed Off:
It would be hard to say which is worse, the tracts in Silly Valley or in North County SD. Lived in both. The one in Silly Valley (Foster City) had 80 feet of waterfront, but none of the framing in the attic was even flush. They just stuck nails in every wich way to hold it together. The tracts in North County now use some fiberglass filler for the revilles around the windows - if you stand on it, they break off. You would be horse whipped if you tried to build houses like this on East Coast.
And winter? Hah! Doesn't exist in Cali, don't you know? Until you try turning on those useless forced air propane heaters in the friggin' attic.
Pissed Off:
That was I at 11:42.
200k 7 years later (2005 versus 1998) does not seem out of line given that my house cost 100k to build and 100k for the land. I really don't need to see the inside of that house to have a real good idea of exactly what the inside looks like.
If you've seen one McMansion you've seen 1000. We have looked at atleast a hundred of these styles of homes from Northern down to Southern California and they all look by and large exactly the same inside, using the same group of manufacturers for bathroom fixtures, kitchen appliances etc..
Elvis:
I know guys who think that any hummer is a good investment.
Are they the same family that thought buying a Hummer was a good investment?
Yes, exactly. :rolleyes:
Geez, I love CR and have been learning a lot from it for nearly 2 years, but most of the comments on here frustrate me.
Some people are exactly like I explain to my daughter: "Some people aren't happy with winning they have to see other people lose."
To Pissed Off In California:
Fair enough. That does make more sense to me.
Bob,
Sorry I shouldn't have gone off like that. My apologies.
"Are they the same family that thought buying a Hummer was a good investment?
Elvis | 01.05.09 - 11:39 pm | # "
Err, um, I don't know about investment, but I can think of a lot worse things than a good Hummer now and then!
o.jeff writes:
Krugman cites CR again...
He seems like an honorable fellow, just seriously confused about economics!
read any one of his books, or if you have already, please come back and tell me what you think
Avg Joe said:
Ain't that the truth. I belong to a large CU back East. Has been rated #1 in country a couple years back.
I pulled their quarterly statement the other day to find that reserves for bad mortgages had doubled from the same qtr a year earlier. In fact the percentage from 2005 had gone from .36 to 2% of loan base.
Just a matter of time before these folks have their hand out. Just hope they have a better sob story than the big 3, or those whining governors the other day.
Pissed Off In California writes:
Bob,
Sorry I shouldn't have gone off like that. My apologies.
No worries man, your screen name of Pissed Off does explain a lot.
Take care.
If you've seen one McMansion you've seen 1000. We have looked at atleast a hundred of these styles of homes from Northern down to Southern California and they all look by and large exactly the same inside, using the same group of manufacturers for bathroom fixtures, kitchen appliances etc..
\t
Pissed Off In California | 01.05.09 - 11:43 pm | #
I am constantly surprised at the new depths to which builders can sink. Stucco over tyrofoam architectual elements? Pour the floors and level them after the drywall is up? Staple the vinyl flanges to the walls to install the windows? Drywall as stair risers? Electric and plumbing run through the same stud holes? The horrors.
I liked Jim's leering patter -- See that door ornament dere? That's not a note from Santa... -- with its acid tone, and his cynical cackle.
These days, I'm struck by how much more interesting it is getting "news" from anyone but the freeze-dried androids on TV.
The horrors.
You're in a maze of twisty McMansions, all alike.
Rob Dawg:
No way a builder would get away with that in the midwest or out east.
Bob, I actually used that handle initially while I was in an angry mood about what was happening in California. I figured I should just stick with it now, but perhaps add "formerly" on my good days
BTW We sold our house in 2004 and I will never buy a tract house again. Our next house will be older, with character, warts and all.
The suburbia, McMansion lifestyle turned both myself and my wife off and was what drove us to attempt to change our lifestyle.
UT is #8.
For those who enjoy Jim The Realtor's unique perspective, check out his video on the House in Vista:
YouTube - Vista, CA bank-owned house
Wait until the end. ROFLMAO
On the mall Web site, Plaza says it wants to attract a value-orientated tenant base, to cater to customers looking for substantially lower price points.
Asian/Hispanic flea markets
I love this guy. I watched all his videos.
Hoopajoops, LTD | Homepage | 01.05.09 - 10:50 pm | #
Me too - I hope he archives it all.
Some people are exactly like I explain to my daughter: "Some people aren't happy with winning they have to see other people lose."
Fair enough, but it cuts both ways. The bubble was built on twenty-five years of hearing there is no such thing as society (and if it does exist, somehow, then we have no obligation to it).
Hard not to feel a little schadenfreude as the screw-you society gets its comeuppance!
Kinda wonder if homes are like new automobiles - worth only 80% the moment you drive it off the lot.
Barley | 01.05.09 - 10:55 pm | #
They are now.
Pissed Off In California, I know what you mean abou the tract housing scenario. I live in a Pulte home, but I am very happy with it.
The problem we had when looking for homes is to find something older with "character" means going into a worse school district a lot of the times.
The Feds involvement in the market has caused the spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasury notes to decline by about 0.1 percentage point to about 1.62 percentage points, according to Art Frank, head of mortgage-backed research at Deutsche Bank. With the 10-year note yielding 2.49%, that implies 30-year yield at about 4.1%.
The New York Fed isnt releasing any details until Thursday, but analysts and fund managers note that while this has engendered an improvement in the mortgage-backed market, primary mortgages sold by lending institutions are still at rates between 5% and 5.3%.
"Some people are exactly like I explain to my daughter: "Some people aren't happy with winning they have to see other people lose."
Bob "
Bob, Do you want a participation ribbon or a participation meal?
Fair enough, but it cuts both ways. The bubble was built on twenty-five years of hearing there is no such thing as society (and if it does exist, somehow, then we have no obligation to it).
LOL...that's why TND's (traditional neighborhood developments) have become so popular over the last 15 years. It's trying to re-create that sense of neighborhood and society. In reality, it's a false sense on both counts.
Oh the snark'll come out... tomorrow, so you gotta hang out till tomorrow, come what may!
Bob,
Group hug?
I was laughing with a friend about burying gold in the backyard . Not 5 seconds later a kids was walking by with a metal detector... Good night
"Daddy, why are you fat and slow?"
"Because other people want to be better than me."
We saw our house being built as we visited the building site multiple times each week while it was being built.
The frame was not fully covered in wood. Only where absolutely required. There were huge open spaces left. At the end it the external walls were covered in chicken wire, some sort of black tarp like paper and then stucco was sprayed on.
No drain in the washer room. Whole bottom floor flooded when washer over-flowed because of this.
We had a balcony inside on the second floor. It was supposed to line up with the front door. They made a mistake and had it off by a few feet. Luckily we caught it in time and they moved the balcony over.
As Anonymous pointed out earlier, nails put in at all angles when joining wood together.
I paid extra for surround sound wiring. For $500 dollars I got the cheapest, thinnest wire imaginable. The front speakers wires came out of the ceiling at random points, not lined up in any manner.
The hardwood floor was the cheapest available. The veneer couldn't even handle a single resurfacing due to scratching. Also all glued into place, rather than interlocking and floating at the edges (easier to fix/replace this way).
We became friendly with a couple of the sub-contractors and they told us the markup on upgrades was so great that it was cheaper for us to get the standard wood/carpeting/tile etc.. and tear it out and upgrade ourselves after the fact then pay for the upgrade through the builder.
I don't think these houses will last more than 20 years.
...and a new term is born, "Dope's palace"
j marston | 01.05.09 - 11:07 pm | #
Dope's Palaceâ¢... Always need to protect your IP.
Elivs:
LMAO...that was good.
When they asked about giving ot trophies for my daughter's soccer team I asked them "Why, because they made it to practice on time?"
"Just a matter of time before these folks have their hand out."
Gomer:
As the linked article below notes, credit unions have already tried to get a piece of TARP and have been turned down.
The CUs appear to be in pretty good shape, however. Evidently the retail CUs own shares in central "corporate" CUs that have suffered losses on mortgages, but based on coverage I've seen elsewhere even these losses do not appear to threaten the survival of the retail CUs.
Treasury Cuts Credit Unions Out of Bailout
[crispy&cole writes:
Million dollar tract homes....still a long way to go!]
Go Craig's List !
dryfly writes:
"[quoting] I love this guy. I watched all his videos. Hoopajoops,
Me too - I hope he archives it all."
Dryfly, Hoops, see my link at 11:59. You won't be disappointed.
Are Credit Unions the new Wells Fargo?
"There's a buyer right now!"
Amusing Vista video, Comrade V.
Trophies are good if they are wives under 35. Otherwise trophies are cheap pieces of plastic.
Stucco over styrofoam architectual elements?
I live in Boise, Idaho and today in the legal notice there were three high profile people from the "upper echelons of Boise" who had their names published in the Notice of Trustee Sales.
Pissed Off In California, wow that's a really bad experience. It sounds like when our first house was built 10 years ago. That was a freaking nightmare.
I was all prepared to go through the same thing with Pulte nearly 2 years ago, but they did a very good job.
I was out looking at our house a lot and we hired a home inspector that we trusted to go through it before closing. He barely found anything.
We never really did many upgrades (just some structural stuff) and bought the least expensive floorplan in the neighborhood. So far I'm really happy, and I don't plan on moving us anytime soon.
Those would be the Boise Brahmin, eh?
Are Credit Unions the new Wells Fargo?
Just on a hunch I Googled Wells Fargo executive bonus. Here is a link, describing not-too-distant (and much better) times for the CEO.
Richard M Kovacevich, CEO of
Wells Fargo
(WFC), Earns
$53.1 mil
Long story short -- as the head of a member-owned financial institution, I doubt any CU CEO is ever going to have a $53 million year. But you never know...
Bob, actually Pulte was not a bad builder even in the Bay Area. On our side of the Bay most of the housing under 1M was built the same way.
Maximum profit was the name of the game. I've heard a lot worse about many of the othe builders here.
Those would be the Boise Brahmin, eh?
Yes. Thank you. Please tell these people here, Iv'e tried.
I had a $72 million dollar year, but I got tired of having sex with Steve Austin after 12 times.
Do any of those houses have Chinese drywall in them like these in SW Florida?
Concerns about Chinese drywall used in SWFL |
WINK News - News, Sports and Weather
- Southwest Florida
| Local & Florida
You're traveling through another depression -- a depression not only of sight and sound but of mind.
A journey into a devasted land whose boundaries are that of helocs, seconds, MBS and derivatives.
That's a bank foreclosure notice up ahead.
You unlock this door with 8 trillion dollars of bailouts for toxic waste securities.
Beyond it is another dimension: a dimension of inflation, a dimension of gold, a dimension of commodities.
You're moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of fiat currency and derivatives. You've just crossed over into... the Federal Reserve Zone.
YouTube -
"as the head of a member-owned financial institution"
refers to the hypothetical CEO, not to me. Clarity, clarity. Time to turn in.
Good night all.
"Maximum profit was the name of the game. I've heard a lot worse about many of the othe builders here.
Pissed Off In California"
Land profit was the name of the game. Housing was a commodity.
I gotta go to bed. Take care.
It was a land bubble and housing was the false suspect.
This guy Jim is hilarious. I met him 15 years ago in Carlsbad at an open house and he showed us some properties (I should have bought more then!). I knew it was him instantly when he said "This was a screamin' deal". He said it then and he still says it! Funny guy, and cool. Glad to see he's still in RE.
"Officer, I swear it was that guy who robbed me."
"Bob Barker? Are you sure, sir."
"Yes, he took my nuts and made me bark like a dog."
"This was a screamin' deal".
Reminds me of the deal I get when I drive pretty real estate agents to work.
bBobGeez, I love CR and have been learning a lot from it for nearly 2 years, but most of the comments on here frustrate me.
Some people are exactly like I explain to my daughter: "Some people aren't happy with winning they have to see other people lose.
I have three friends that bought at the top, even if they don't loose their house, they took a big hit, maybe two years worth of income gone. That's harsh, especially since I think flippers aside, their isn't an iota of difference between those that bought in 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2005. Me I was going to buy a house in 2002, but decided to blow my down payment on being sick for a few years instead. Um... even then I could see where Greenspan's low interest rates and the post 911 lack of regulation was going.
Selling bad houses for multiples of their value in a scheme that will hose the economy for a generation while destroying individuals, families and communities has its upsides, you know.
Broward Horne writes:
"Stucco over styrofoam architectual elements?"
You bet! Very funny when the window cleaners try standing on them on the second floor and they suddenly break off. Usually after the once a year rain in San Diego saturates the poorly mixed and badly cured stucco. Its as real as Disneyland.
This one from Jim the Realtor is good fun (REO in Vista)
YouTube - Vista, CA bank-owned house
Dryfly, Hoops, see my link at 11:59. You won't be disappointed.
Comrade V | 01.06.09 - 12:09 am | #
I've already seen that one - just about died laughing. I think I've seen them all. He should compile some of these into a documentary & bring it to Cannes or Sundance - he'd get the Grand Prix for sure.
Elvis writes:
Land profit was the name of the game. Housing was a commodity.
Very few ppl understand this. Maybe 1 in a million. I've known builders that didn't get it. The wood, bricks and mortar are necessary only to monetize the profit in the land. Young builders tend to shoot way above the average home price for the area, because they don't understand the principle. Its quite simple once you get it.
Listen to Comrade V. Those styrofoam accoutrements are hilarious as long as they aren't on your house.
Rob Dawg writes:
"Those styrofoam accoutrements are hilarious as long as they aren't on your house."
Another great SoCal feature: "Cultured stone", i.e. the fake, overpriced soft concrete poured into molds shaped like real stone and then dyed to a color of your choice. Thinset in mats to look rough hewn. If the installer sucks, he leaves all the rough cuts exposed so you can see its fake. Otherwise, looks great until Grandma backs the car into it and chips the damn stuff exposing the pretty mottled concrete core. Impossible to repair without looking patchwork.
Look carefully. Its everywhere.
Can anyone identify the cast of charachters on my Mortgage Pig(TM) SLAP IT hoodie? I forget who some of these guys are(were).
You bet! Very funny when the window cleaners try standing on them on the second floor and they suddenly break off
My comment got eaten. I was going to say, our second house in Phoenix was like that. I was stunned. But I have to say, our energy bill was extremely low, about $130 / month on average for 2000 sq ft.
The stucco over styrofoam was surprising but it seemed to work okay, we never had any problems.
.
Someone stop me. But first, did anyone see the episode on Weeds when Celia, the babe who runs for City Council, goes bananas about the idiocy of the layout in her SoCal tract. The stupid outdoor atrium that serves as a central hallway that's always too hot, too cold or wet the few times it rains. All of the shoots are SoCal to a T.
Broward Horne writes:
"The stucco over styrofoam was surprising but it seemed to work okay, we never had any problems."
Believe me they didn't use it to be energy efficient. In the "old days" they framed them with real lumber, but heck wood costs more. How long did you own your house? Stuff usually lasts about six years.
The quality of modern houses is quite sad. I know because I was building them until two years ago, and I did a far better job than my competitors. The problem is that building houses properly these days is prohibitively expensive.
I just tracked down a full set of prints for my house (built in 1914 for the smelter superintendent). If I wanted to build this house today to the spec's on that print it would cost at least $450/sf (that's if I could find the tradesmen) and it wouldn't include the mod cons people expect. Where the prints were a bit vague they specified that the work was to be "performed in as economical a manner as possible while maintaining the standards of a master craftsman" My house matches the prints perfectly in all details. I'm in the process of spending about $100,000 fixing it up, but it will still be standing in 200 years.
It's all very sad to see the houses people are / were buying these days. My friends and relatives look at my house and think I've lost my mind. No granite counter tops, no central vac!
Night all. Early flight.
If someone can explain why Sprint share price is so cheap, I would apreciate it. (No, really!)
Tomorrow: TLT gets hammered. TBT has the glory. A brave new world, one second at a time.
I'll say this, stucco over Styrofoam is quite energy efficient if it's also insulated well. Better than my old house with 14" brick walls. Mine will last longer though...
Believe me they didn't use it to be energy efficient. In the "old days" they framed them with real lumber, but heck wood costs more. How long did you own your house? Stuff usually lasts about six years.
Comrade V | 01.06.09 - 12:48 am | #
How thick was the stucco? I mean if they use the heavy wire mesh substrate (actually expanded wire - very rugged) and a solid base coat before the finish coat - it should hold up pretty well. They don't do that?
Realize there are a few stucco houses in my neighborhood and all were built prior to 1930... all have their original coats and none look too terrible.
They use something more like chicken wire in the southwest these days. Expanded metal would be good. There are stucco houses up the hill from me in Jerome that are at least 100 years old and are holding up pretty well (aside from the fact that they are sliding down the hill...)
Fed Focuses on Consumer, Corporate Rate Spreads Over Treasuries
Fed Focuses on Consumer, Corporate Loan Rate Spreads (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
elvis-your on fire tonight...
the hell with buying..renting for 2/3 less than mortgage is so today!
Sprint:
lotsa debt.
losing cell subscribers like mad, on both the high side (e.g. iPhone) and the low end (e.g. Cricket)
no other services to fall back upon (e.g. landlines, video, etc)
what's not to like
Movin' on up is exactly right. IMHO the crash is moving up, and this will be the year that the high end comes down to a much less lofty height. Everything is working against the high end.
Time for me to start getting chummy with some banks that will soon have REO in high end neighborhoods. I have no ill-will towards the folks in these homes. It's just that my wife is bitching about renting for the past 3 years. I look forward to the correction in our old neighborhood. I also feel a bit of urgency to own something concrete that is safe from the effects of a not-too-distant collapse of the dollar. Gold gives me some piece of mind, but I can't live in it.
Elvis writes:
It was a land bubble and housing was the false suspect.
Elvis | 01.06.09 - 12:20 am | #
This.
dryfly writes: Realize there are a few stucco houses in my neighborhood and all were built prior to 1930... all have their original coats and none look too terrible.
Those were cementitious stucco materials, mostly builders are using vinyl stucco these days. In any case what these ppl are describing is a little mistaken. There is always a framed wall that stucco is applied to, a backing for the wire to nail to. The paper is backing to contain the stucco. The wire is reinforcement - its all fine. Stucco is a covering - a 'skin' - its not a structural element, just like brick is not a structural element.
Here in california some counties were overwhelmed by the number of projects being built...so they allowed the builders to hire their own inspectors.The quality is the worst I have seen in any real estate cycle by a LOT,and I grew up going on appraisals with my dad (starting in 1960).Maintenance,when possible (It will not always be feasible) will be 3-4 times historic norms on most of these mcmansions.And BTW these lots are a lot bigger than many I have seen for homes in this price range.
Brick did USED to be a structural element, not a facade.
bob mologna writes:
Brick did USED to be a structural element, not a facade.
Not in my life time, not fired brick..nope. I am a framing carpenter also, so i know my construction.
"Elvis writes:
It was a land bubble and housing was the false suspect."
Hmm, what explains the outrageous prices on condos, apartment conversions, and the like? How about the outrageous prices on existing homes, especially old ones like in Santa Ana, Anaheim, Costa Mesa and the like?
dryfly(Very Good) writes:
...and a new term is born, "Dope's palace"
j marston | 01.05.09 - 11:07 pm | #
Dope's Palaceâ¢... Always need to protect your IP.
I don't know what you're talking about with the IP, but I posted the "dope palace" thing from my work computer,and I'm not j marston.
theotherdeb writes:
(I'm one of the idiots who put 20% down and paid for remodel/improvements cash-out-of-pocket).
Me too. 25% down and all builder upgrades and all other improvements paid in cash. The builder's salespeople questioned my intent to occupy because in their experience, no one would actually buy a house to occupy with my ratios, i.e., I could afford the place by the "old style" financing.
Boy do I feel dumb. If I had only leveraged to the maximum and not expended any cash out of pocket, I could just walk like the rest of the neighborhood.
Do I sound bitter tonight?
bob mologna, dryfly, Kondratieff canuk,
I'm not talking about the skins, only the architectural detail work, such as the raised trim work around windows and such. They used to built up over the skins with 2X4 and 2X8, etc to create sume features to break the flat surfaces. The framing would be covered with chicken wire and then stucco mortered on top. All fine. Now they substitute sty for the lumber. Very light but not, in my opinion, sturdy enough to withstand years of elements or any wear and tear. teh stuff lirerally breaks off when stressed. You can tap it and you'll know by the hollow sound. Not like solid lumber.
Night all,
"Sprint:
lotsa debt.
losing cell subscribers like mad, on both the high side (e.g. iPhone) and the low end (e.g. Cricket)
no other services to fall back upon (e.g. landlines, video, etc)
what's not to like"
Maybe Paulson and Cox will ban shorts on telecoms as a parting shot...
Weather Helm writes:
Hmm, what explains the outrageous prices on condos, apartment conversions, and the like? How about the outrageous prices on existing homes, especially old ones like in Santa Ana, Anaheim, Costa Mesa and the like?
Weather Helm | 01.06.09 - 1:32 am | #
What Elvis is explaining is that the price increase occurs in land component. Just think about it, eventually it will make sense.
ewbie writes:
"Do I sound bitter tonight?"
Only if you listen to too many on this site. Things work out, one day at a time. Good luck, your day will come.
"Do I sound bitter tonight?
newbie | 01.06.09 - 1:39 am | # "
What you and theotherdeb failed to understant is that stupidity is the new black, that only fools get bailouts and relief. If you play personal finance with conservative principles, you will get whacked upside the head with nunchuks. That is today's Amerika for ya.
Thought I was on topic...no response to my post?
Anybody care to offer a counter-argument about the (middle-class) high-end being doomed?
Either everybody agrees, or else I'm on everybody's ignore list! Either way, no reason to stick around...
Goodnight!
I don't know what you're talking about with the IP
In that context, protecting IP = Intellectual Property, not Internet Protocal.
"What Elvis is explaining is that the price increase occurs in land component. Just think about it, eventually it will make sense.
Kondratieff canuk | 01.06.09 - 1:44 am | # "
I've thought about it and it still doesn't make complete sense. The bubble was for anything housing, AFAIK. Saying it was all about land is like saying it was all about granite, if you don't mind the pun.
A family member nearly sold a mobile home on a lot for a substantial amount more than the mobile home value + lot value. That tells me it wasn't all about land. That says it was insanity about housing.
I rent a townhome with some new homes nearby. The new homes have about the same lot size. But their prices, minus labor and materials for structure was way more than the peak value of the townhome I'm renting!
None of it ever made any sense. The tax assessments of (structure) + (land) is all a joke. They just estimate the structure value and assign the rest to land.
I've heard people say stuff like, "Most of the cost is the land." How can you tell what the fair value of the land is? It still seems like there is a land bubble, no?
Now I can perfectly understand the replacement value of the house, but the value of the land... it doesn't seem easy to quantify. I mean sure, $200/sqft is a value... but there's no way of knowing if that is a "fair" value or not, right?
The flipping that was going on also makes it clear it wasn't simply a land bubble. Buy a place, slap some granite and pergo, and maybe replace a window or two, and the "value" suddenly increases by $200k. The "land" part didn't change. Only in the tax assessor's mind (or casual bystander who wants structure + land simplicity) did the land suddenly increase in value by nearly $200k.
YLSP the market determines the price of the land. The land component is the speculative component. In a rising market land can double in a year, i have seen it a few times, in markets i was building in. The construction materials component is less volatile. When a speculator is flipping houses, he is actually making it on rising land values...think of it that way.
A family member nearly sold a mobile home on a lot for a substantial amount more than the mobile home value + lot value. That tells me it wasn't all about land.
See, it's about the land =)
You're confusing the value of the land with the lot value. It's almost as we need a "goodwill" value for real estate when the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.
SoCal is in a downward spiral - too many jobs depending on the housing market. Price declines will lead to more and more job losses, which will lead to further price declines...
The premise that house prices will find equilibrium when they are more aligned with incomes is correct, but those incomes will be coming down too before equilibrium is achieved.
"YLSP writes:
I've heard people say stuff like, "Most of the cost is the land.""
I propose that much of the cost was in the insantiy component.
How long did you own your house?
We had that house for four years, I watched them build it.
The house was fantastic, but I didn't check the surrounding neighborhoods.
There was a lot of crime and drug dealing, so we finally sold the house.
The last house on the left in the video, the short sale?
It's the same floor plan as the REO that backs directly to RSF Rd. that just closed for $695,000 a month ago, but the short sale has nice southern exposure/view, and less road noise.
The listing agent said tonight that she has eight purchase offers in hand, with FIVE of them OVER the high end of her $699,000 to $729,000 range.
Thanks for the warm comments, I'll try to keep 'em coming!
JtR
"Police have been given the power to hack into personal computers without a court warrant. The Home Office is facing anger and the threat of a legal challenge after granting permission. Ministers are also drawing up plans to allow police across the EU to collect information from computers in Britain."
New powers for police to hack your PC -
Home News, UK - The Independent
The UK is preparing for what? Ireland taught them nothing.
Beijing says housing prices too high, urges moderation
"House prices have fallen somewhat...but are still not affordable for ordinary people.... The key to revitalizing the real-estate market is to set reasonable prices,"
Beijing says housing prices too high, urges moderation - MarketWatch
ghostfaceinvestah writes:
The premise that house prices will find equilibrium when they are more aligned with incomes is correct, but those incomes will be coming down too before equilibrium is achieved.
Bingo. I keep repeating this to myself day after day. No one talks about this, its hugely absent in the forecasting going on.
Jim Klinge you is teh r0xx0rzzz
The listing agent said tonight that she has eight purchase offers in hand, with FIVE of them OVER the high end of her $699,000 to $729,000 range.
Jim The Realtor | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 2:12 am | #
Fools and their money...
Hey Jim do you ever see that ice cream truck in your dreams? I'm sorry, that blue one really looked like it had a child molester driving it.
"Come on in, little boy, I got some more ice cream inside!"
elvis is largely correct. thought of another way, it was a status bubble, and ownership of an SFR is the clearest demarcation of status in almost all of the country. this is one of the ways in which our time resonates with the depression - americans leveraged themselves into debt to afford the amazing new appliances of the late 20s, which were very much a status item, often to a silly degree in an era where roads were unsuited to motorcars, which were very expensive, extravagant, high-maintenance items.
Just a thought...
Future land value = Long term Freshwater availability
Which States are having the greatest $ declines
bgates writes:
elvis is largely correct. thought of another way, it was a status bubble, and ownership of an SFR is the clearest demarcation of status
Actually Elvis is 100% correct. Its about understanding property values correctly for what they are. You are referring to land value, because you refer to location. Its the same.
re: land vs. improvements
the idea of location, location, location is the value of land being primary.
the improvements on the land are secondary.
highest and best use, and all that
"Its the same."
subtle distinction, but not entirely. loft conversion projects in various downtowns are an example of the distinction.
Housing value is all about land value, which is all about location. Period. Whatever igloo one builds at the street address can be replaced, torn down, rebuild, without too much affect, either positive of negative on the property value, assuming that the principle of 'highest and best use' is operative, and that Frank Lloyd Wright was not the architect..
Elvis is correct. The land is the commodity, not the house. The houses don't exist to monetize the land, they're just a part of the production function.
The economics of construction (production) depend on the price of the commodity. Not unlike any other finished good, I might add.
Elvis- free slurpees in lieu of bonus this month!
Rob-
I just read your acronyms from a few threads back: too funny.
You've been at this for awhile, haven't you?
from the previous topic, how can you pay 200-300$ per night in hotel?
i am staying during my business trips to vienna in this hotel
404 Not Found
and the night costs from 75Eur
how comes you pay 200-300$ per night? is that manhatten or is the security situation in us so bad you need to pay that much to not be shot?
its not irony, i am really just asking ...
" Whatever igloo one builds at the street address can be replaced, torn down, rebuild, without too much affect"
building can be a complex affair in the land of NIMBYs and preservationists. my point is that the bubble was fueled by a desire for an image - that of a successful, smart investor with the trophy to prove it, whether that be a cute suburban place, new mcmansion, trendy downtown loft. of course, location is the key component of that, but far from all of it.
as an example, does something magically happen to the land itself when you cross el camino real from atherton to north fair oaks in san mateo county, CA?
"Not unlike any other finished good, I might add."
Somehow I think that manufacturing widgets in China is a bit different than putting up a new housing development on the coast between pescadero and half moon bay...
sorry if the bay area references are obscure to some, but it is where the bubble started, and where it still lives on more than anywhere else...
bgates writes:
"Its the same."
subtle distinction, but not entirely. loft conversion projects in various downtowns are an example of the distinction.
bgates | 01.06.09 - 2:31 am | #
Sorry but you are wrong. The site was sold WITH the value of that loft priced in.
Its such a simple concept...
"The site was sold WITH the value of that loft priced in. "
so you are telling me that never in the modern history of cities has a developer scooped up an industrially-zoned property, applied the proper political grease, and then emerged with hip new lofts once the zoning changed?
bgates, we are talking about 'land value' components in real property verses the hard cost of construction. When a developer rezones land, usually , almost always, he hits the jackpot. The increase in value is in the land.
Anyway, i tire easily explaining real estate to the uninitiated - my timer just went off.
We now have 'micro-lofts' in the neighborhood. What's a micro-loft you ask? It's what used to be called a single occupancy hotel room, totaling about 100 square feet.
George Orwell would be proud.
Just FYI Jim's blog is here for anyone interested:
bubbleinfo.com
Great site by a great realtor.
"The increase in value is in the land. "
and what creates that premium? marketing. image. politics.
Irvine Company - Our Legacy - More Than a Century
bgates writes:
"The increase in value is in the land. "
and what creates that premium? marketing. image. politics.
I will try to be patient... Its an honest question..
"The market" . The demand and the supply and the ability to finance. You want to see prices jump? Lower mortgage rates by a point. This refers to normal conditions.
If you asking about some premium value placed on something stupid like a loft, its because the idiots out there are willing to pay extra for a fashion statement. And that idiocy is priced into the value of the site BEFORE the builder buys it from the holder of the land...presume a 'land' developer (or some ancient holding owner with a good appraiser working for him.)
Builders move cargo.. the value of what they WILL SELL is already priced into the land, before they buy it.
Are we done now?
BTW... premium prices paid for so-called high-end intrinsic values such as' lofts' are always the first price haircuts when a real estate bubble deflates, because they have a weaker 'true value' component. They are a luxury ticket item. Demand will be weakest for this product in a down turn. Remember, one of the ways to evaluate real property is its resale durability... in other words, buy a corner lot/house with southern exposure... if living in the northern hemisphere that is..
Can I chime in once more?
The whole thing started with the claim that this was a land bubble, not a housing bubble.
If you look at it from the right perspective, perhaps you can always conclude that it was the land value increasing all along (Barzini all along). But that requires a certain perspective. I don't share that perspective.
More fundamentally, and more broadly, it was a housing bubble not a land bubble. The people buying stuff didn't give much of a crap about the land. They had an image of a "home". It wasn't a patch of land on the magazine covers, it was a house.
canuk-
Chicken before the egg.
Besides, you're oversimplifying a complex push-pull relationship that fluxes with the credit markets.
Based on your thesis, one can entitle any parcel and the holder has a license to print money.
In my experience, this is decidedly not the case.
For example: If I pay too much for the dirt in the first place because my banker is shoving dollars into my accounts so HE can grow assets, it doesn't matter how much density/use I get through entitlements, the development won't sell.
And you'll get exactly what we're seeing- tumbleweed developments.
Suncal is a perfect example.
US drilling outlays soar to $226.4 billion in 2007
US drilling outlays soar to $226.4 billion in 2007
- Oil & Gas Journal
really odd divergences within commodities overnight - i have a bad feeling about tomorrow
I'm in the Silicon Valley where things are still painted as rosy; however there are signs of serious strain on the local economy and housing market. It appears that FHA, of all things, is helping to prop up the local housing market.
Strangely, it sounds like FHA has reverted into Alt-A territory with its policies.
Home sales are up but prices are falling; who's buying houses? - San Jose Mercury News
"FHA loans are amazing," said Milpitas real estate agent Marie Pham, who has worked with several first-time buyers this year. With low down payments, low rates and less reliance on credit scores than traditional loans, FHA-insured mortgages are tailor-made for real estate newbies, she said.
If you pluck that $1MM home off the Carlsbad lot and move it to Fargo how much is it worth?
dfb,
FHA is definitely the most aggressive loan program out there but compared to the stuff of the boom years it is downright draconian. With seller funded down payments gone and FHA being full doc, actually having front and back end ratios (31/43) and requiring the property to meet certain standards it isn't going to bring back the market. It might stop the market from overshooting to the downside but that just means the recovery will take longer.
I'd like to thank the participants in the land / lot / house price disaggregation discussion for teaching me a lesson.
Maslow's hierarchy of needs - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Maslow was a man, right? sex is on the base of his pyramid
aside from that obvious fact, the ongoing mean reversion should in every way keep all this in mind
OT, but another bailout on the way or there may be serious trouble...the fed program that hands out vouchers for the switch to digital TV has now run out of money....
Congress Urged To Postpone Nation's Switch To Digital TV - washingtonpost.com
"Owners of capital will stimulate working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism." -- Attributed to Karl Marx 1867-Das Kapital
A friend who sent the above quote asks: failure of democracy in the offing as we know it?
Yes. For the largest democracy the time horizon is during 2010s and for the second largest democracy it is 2020s.
The Anglo-American democracy, with its roots going back some 350 years, has always been a fraud whereby the moneybags have gained more and more power over the government in the name of the people and now the process is complete with no checks on the powers of the moneybags that had existed until the recent decades. The check to moneybags power in the past came from the old warrior class aristocracy and the priestly class. The ultimate of the power of the moneybags of London and New York City is reflected in Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) who have de facto control of the economy and the policy-making bodies. Their abuse of financial and economic power exceeds that of the feudal aristocracy and the churchmen at their heights. The end of the road is near.
The easiest way to identify a dope is someone who still believes that the current form of American and Indian democracies are good political systems, let alone among the best.
Jas
What's sad is that in my area - rent is still more than my mortgage, even those thanks to the local foreclosure market, prices have dropped enough that I'm technically underwater.
Just trying to remember to be patient.
I am ashamed
I have long been a fan of James Howard Kunstler, author of “The Long Emergency.” Up until today, I have recommended it to everyone I know. We have posted a dozen or so of his pieces, with a link to his site.
I’m sorry I did, it took a reader to point out to me Kunstler is a racist anti-Semitic whining War Criminal.
I called Mr. Kunstler an anti-Semite. I mean exactly what I say, whereas he just used it in the typically whining crybaby Zionist way where anyone who dares criticize Israel is at once denounced as an anti-Semite.
But the Zionists who run Israel are not Semites. The Ashkenazi Jews that rule Israel have no legal, moral, historical or religious ties to Israel. Their origins are in the Kingdom of Khazar, they converted to Judaism in the 8th Century. The Palestinians are Semites; the Ashkenazi Jews are not Semites. So by attacking the Ghetto at Gaza, the Zionists have become the biggest Anti-Semites of all times.
321energy :: I am ashamed :: Bob Moriarty
Jas how do you explain mainsteam economists in this process?
--
"...prices have dropped enough that I'm technically underwater. Just trying to remember to be patient."
Once Young and Stupid,
If you are still making your mortgage payments then you must still be stupid. You should either live for free for 9-12 months that it takes to get evicted, or even better, have your mortgage amount and payment reduced.
Mortgage is a game in America and you are playing a losing game if you are underwater and paying your mortage.
BTW, rent will start dropping in 2009 in most parts of the US. The year of deflation is here.
Jas
--
"Jas how do you explain mainstream economists in this process?"
tg is a born & bred dope in a,
The most polite term I can use is rouge economists. In reality, they are the front army of the Great American Propaganda Machine (that breeds dopes). The most prominent ones, including Greenspan and Bernanke are agents of BFNYC.
Jas
Monetarism enters bankruptcy
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
"rouge economists"
I assume they also put lipstick on the pig in addition to their namesake cosmetic products?
--
"But the Zionists who run Israel are not Semites. The Ashkenazi Jews that rule Israel have no legal, moral, historical or religious ties to Israel. Their origins are in the Kingdom of Khazar, they converted to Judaism in the 8th Century. The Palestinians are Semites; the Ashkenazi Jews are not Semites. So by attacking the Ghetto at Gaza, the Zionists have become the biggest Anti-Semites of all times."
A little known fact in Dopeland. Arthur Koestler, who researched the facts was once very well known, is now hardly known at all. The Age of Propaganda, begun in the US some 90 years ago, is exerting itself every moment.
The Medieval Jewish Kingdom of the Khazars, 740-1259:
Medieval Sourcebook: The Medieval Jewish Kingdom of the Khazars
Jas
Jas,
Thank you.
These prices are still stratospheric- maybe they're worth 500k, tops. Look at the median household income in the area. 500k is expensive for a household income of 200k/yr (2.5x). They won't be saving much.
I love how these houses sell for 1 million, yet the insurance on the structure is probably no more than for a 200k structure. There's no way that the land is worth 800k- it's pure inflation, and the appraisers are part of the inflation.
Who cares???? Mr. Market is singing the green song.
Anonymous writes:
They were built in exactly the same way, using exactly the same materials with exactly the same type of workers as the home we bought from Pulte in Silicon Valley in 1998.
And WHO built these homes I dare ask, or shall we just keep skirting around the issue?
YouTube - What part of "illegal" don't you understand?!!
I don't care. Foreclosures are doing the market a favor, except that the government won't let a correction also topple the likes of AIG and Goldman Sachs. Foreclosing is the new way to sell a house in California; it's called deleveraging. Companies do it all the time. Especially companies like Morgan Stanley, who recently held nearly 1 trillion in CDOs.
A very incomplete list of Rouge Economists and organizations based on their recession forecasts
ECRI Lakshman Achuthan
UCLA Andersen Forecast -- Edward Leamer, Ryan Ratcliff
NABE the whole gang
Conference Board Gail Fosler, Ken Goldstein
Sadly, even my favorite economist, David Rosenberg, proved himself to be a rouge economist with his forecasts for 2008 and 2009 despite his very negative commentaries and factual data pointing to a much worse outcome. His forecast of 10 December 2007 (when the recession had begun) for the real GDP were:
2008 -- +1.4%
2009 -- +2.0%
These forecasts meant either a very shallow recession or no recession at all while his comments and facts pointed to a severe recession, if not a depression.
Any economist who is not an intellectual whore has to pay the price. Hence, honesty is very rare among economists with access to the public, i.e., dopes. ECONOMISTS HAVE BEEN AND ARE THE PART OF THE PROBLEMS AND MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE ANY PART OF THE SOLUTIONS. But do we have a real choice in America as to who the ruling elite are?
Jas
How come the houses in California always look like they're made out of candy?
--
Interesting,
Henry CK Liu, the author of the Asia Times article you linked, has been a long-time e-friend in forums.
Jas
Jas,
Glad to see there's still some people left who are willing to speak the truth regardless of the resistance and pressure.
Again,
Thank you.
--
mal,
We breed the biggest and the best dopes and they drink lot of KOOL-AID. This applies to the rogue economists are UCLA Andersen Forecast. These guys admitted the US recession some one year after the beginning and California recession some 16 months after it began. Talk about the ivory tower or the dismal science practiced in the best schools.
California will lead the US into a depression. It is full of dopes and rogue economists.
Jas
BTW, they can get away with building shit houses in California because of the climate. Your houses don't actually have to stand up to any actual weather.
When people first came out to California the only style of homebuilding they knew was either stuff that actually made sense for desert climes (adobe, etc) or the solid construction habits from back East (which were possibly overkill).
Born and bred dopes?
Seventy-seven percent of Americans believe that the U.S. media is making the economic situation worse by projecting fear into people's minds.
The majority of those surveyed feel that the financial press, by focusing on and embellishing negative news, is damaging consumer confidence and damping investment, making a difficult situation much worse. The poll was conducted via telephone, December 4 - 7.
Household Incomes:
$25k - $35k -- 79% answered YES
$35k - $50k -- 88% answered YES
$50k - $75k -- 76% answered YES
$75k - more -- 78% answered YES
Richard Scheff, a national expert on corporate liability and white collar crime issues, warns media that they could potentially be exposed to liability despite apparent constitutional protections:
"Although statements by the media are protected by the First Amendment, the survey results demonstrate that the public believes that the press bears some responsibility for the lack of confidence in the economy. One would hope that the media would act less out of self-interest in these times of national crisis," said Mr. Scheff, vice chairman and partner with Philadelphia-based law firm Montgomery McCracken Walker & Rhoads.
--
"BTW, they can get away with building shit houses in California because of the climate. Your houses don't actually have to stand up to any actual weather."
mal,
How about them winds? Santa Ana?
Jas
the ten year is at 2.5, oil is at $50.00
One station locally jumped prices midday from 1.39 to 1.69
Anybody know where the 30 year is?
--
Sorry for mistyping of rogue.
Jas
30 year has a 3 handle, for those who really wanna know
....most homes built here (and in SoCal) now don't even have siding inside the stucco. With exception to the shear walls on the corners, you can punch thru the exterior walls with your fist. Real crap. As was stated above though, SoCal gets no frost/freezes to speak of, so living in a firm-sided "tent" is just fine for a $500K investment.
--
"Anybody know where the 30 year is?"
Comrade Volker the Viking,
The Bond Pricne at your service -- It is 3.09%.
Jas
Real bad feeling here. Money is slowing way down. I am no expert (no kidding?, hah!), but my discussions with folk locally (and we don't have any experts locally) is that we've seen the best of it.
Inflation v deflation is becoming irrelevant debate.
"Best of WHAT", Volker?
--
"Inflation v deflation is becoming irrelevant debate."
Comrade Volker the Viking,
Because the "printing Money" inflation dopes have lost?
Jas
Why did this line pop in my head after Volkers post? "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times"...
--
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times"...
Comrade Kristina,
Because "the best of times" are decidedly behind us and "the worst of times" are dead ahead. No escpae routes. Dopes, led by Crooks and evildoers, have cornered themselves!
Jas
good morning all
people are doing strange things under the pressure. 18-yo girl hanged herself last night, convenience clerk shot & killed in Mexican gang initiation thing - she had just moved here from Germany, 3-4 armed standoffs during evictions .......and we don't have that kind of stuff ever
....I think the nation will start unraveling the next 10-years - if we have that long....
and we don't have that kind of stuff ever
Black Star Ranch | 01.06.09 - 8:56 am | #
Mish said it more than once, things that shouldn't be happening, are.
The best, as I said and Jas reiterated, is behind us. The gravelly moguls dead ahead.
--
Way to go Volker! Why not Volcker? Is it German (central Europe) of Nordic origin?
Jas
The gravelly moguls dead ahead.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.06.09 - 8:58 am | #
And yet he gains! Inconceivable......
Stimulus Package to Include Cram-Downs: Report
By PAUL JACKSON
January 5, 2009
Advertisements
The latest round of economic stimulus currently being crafted by Senate Democrats is likely to include controversial legislation allowing so-called cram-downs of mortgage debt in bankruptcy, according to a Reuters report Monday evening. The proposal, long opposed by key lobbyists in the mortgage industry, would allow judges to reduce mortgage debt on primary residences as part of a bankrupt borrowers debt restructuring plan.
'moved here from Germany, 3-4 armed standoffs during evictions'
Are you saying that armed stand-offs are occurring in Germany, because it is certainly the first I have ever heard of it.
Not that it is impossible, by any means, merely difficult to imagine it occurring with such regularity - especially considering that evictions in American terms are generally quite rare, in part because of how various social agencies (government and church based) function.
Reread the text more closely - it was the clerk that had moved from Germany, not eviction stand-offs, apparently.
...yes, the clerk just moved from Germany......
BTW, morning, All.....19-degrees here - MUCH colder this winter than last. Must be that global warming thing...
Well, we have definitely gone around the bend when secured debt is no longer actually secured by anything.
I am sure this will have no bad, unforeseen consequences.
The latest round of economic stimulus currently being crafted by Senate Democrats is likely to include controversial legislation allowing so-called âcram-downs" of mortgage debt in bankruptcy
Anonymous | 01.06.09 - 9:11 am | #
Hooray! I can't think of a better way to ensure that mortgage rates soar than forcing banks to include the risk of future cram-downs in their business models. And with soaring rates will come crashing house prices.
What a world.
--
"MUCH colder this winter than last. Must be that global warming thing..."
Black Star Ranch,
It IS global warming and America cooling thing!
Jas
An anecdote of which I am not sure of it's meaning:
Last night I was shopping at Best Buy for a new laptop, and almost every model was out of stock, and the salespeople couldn't even tell me when they expected replenishment. I would have expected better inventory management than this, but was I mistaken, or is there some deep problem developing in retail supply lines?
Some detail on gas supply impacts country by country across EU and Balkans:
FACTBOX: Countries affected by Russia-Ukraine gas row
Tue Jan 6, 2009 12:56pm GMT
FACTBOX: Countries affected by Russia-Ukraine gas row
| Reuters
Hooray! I can't think of a better way to ensure that mortgage rates soar than forcing banks to include the risk of future cram-downs in their business models. And with soaring rates will come crashing house prices.
We "forced" banks to take billions of tax payer dollars now let's force them to put those tax payer dollars to use.
--
"What a world."
JP,
Gangistan and Dopeland of America in action, as everyday for the past dozen or so years.
Gangistan acts, or plays the game, and Dopeland watches from the sidelines. That is the summary of the American econo-political system, no?
Americans are angry because they are politically impotent.
Jas
ew thread
So I wonder how long it is before the Russian tanks roll into Ukraine?
Hooray! I can't think of a better way to ensure that mortgage rates soar than forcing banks to include the risk of future cram-downs in their business models. And with soaring rates will come crashing house prices.
What a world.
JP | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 9:25 am |
JP me thinks that you have been drinking the bank Kool Aid. What is the premium on mortgages for second homes( where cram downs are permitted) and primary homes? What was the premium on corporate loans (where cram downs are also permitted). When the banks actually spend some time thinking about it they will come to realize that a cram down in this kind of market is far preferable to foreclosure. Once the cram down has been effected it will be much harder for a borrower to walk away. If you believe that prices are going to continue to decline that could be a really good thing.
'But the Zionists who run Israel are not Semites.'
Of course not - and the Protocols of the Elders of Zion remains an uncannily accurate representation of what those sneaky non-Semites are up to.
Especially considering this - Kohen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I guess all those Germans named Kohn, Kuhn, Kahn, Cön/Coen were just pretending to be fairly demonstrably genetically Jewish through descent.
Man, I just love some of the discussion here, secret handshakes and all. When do we start talking about the Masons? Or Mormon underwear? Or for that matter, Mormons 'baptizing' Jews killed by the Nazis? Who, it is now revealed, weren't real Jews at all. Which means that actually the Mormons should just go on baptizing millions of more non-Semites, seeing as how they were all killed in a case of mistaken identity. Talk about embarrassing.
OT:
Doesn't Madoff look well rested and jovial when strolling out of his nice home to go chat with his lawyers? We're all fuming and he looks like he hasn't a care in the world. Maybe he doesn't. What does he know that we don't? Why isn't he in custody? What relationships does he have with politicians?
It was funny to hear he was stashing jewelry with all his innocent family members who had no idea what was happening. Wall St's business practices are brought to the street level.
I can't think of a better way to ensure that mortgage rates soar than forcing banks to include the risk of future cram-downs in their business models.
JP | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 9:25 am
Why would banks have to include cram-downs in their business models? They didn't include foreclosure risk in their models 2 years ago and they got free taxpayer money as a result. Banks also are not reserving much for credit card defaults. That's because they will not have to pay for them.
Elvis writes:
"Daddy, why are you fat and slow?"
"Because other people want to be better than me."
Elvis | 01.06.09 - 12:06 am | #
Bravo man...bravo
I love listening to "jim the realtor". He should be made housing czar or something. He and mr mortgage should start a company together called New Reality.