Non-Manufacturing ISM Report is better than expected: 40.6 vs. 37.0 consensus (Nov was 37.3). So the sector is still contracting but not as fast as before. The contraction is broad based. Only one sector registered growth - Retail, and this is not going to last
"Factory activity contracted in December at the fastest pace since 1980, the Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management said last week. The groups measure for new orders reached its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1948, and prices slid the most since 1949."
Not exactly more appropriate here, but still interesting -
'The sons of Bernard Madoff, who is accused of orchestrating a massive Ponzi scheme, told prosecutors last week that their father violated a court-ordered asset freeze by mailing them jewelry, watches and other items, his lawyer said.
U.S. prosecutors yesterday asked a federal judge to revoke Madoffs bail because he violated the freeze. U.S. Magistrate Judge Ronald Ellis asked for legal briefs by Jan. 7 from the government and from Madoff, who remains free in his Manhattan apartment on a $10 million bond. ' Top Financial News refer=home
Recognizing all the complexity and layering involved, I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system).
Nonetheless, it is just another evidence point that the sons do seem to be playing fully within the rule of law that the father, if not the mother too, seem to have flouted for decades. In other words, they are as disgusted with a fraudulent crook as any other normal citizen, family obligation notwithstanding.
Here is today's release:
Economic Slump Weakens Pending Home Sales
WASHINGTON, January 06, 2009
After holding fairly stable for a year, pending home sales declined in the face of job losses and an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 4.0 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised reading of 85.7 in October...
And this from last month:
Pending Home Sales Holding In Stable Range
WASHINGTON, December 09, 2008
Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9...
88.9 to 85.7 is on heck of a refinement. Keep in mind that the figures out today could be revised as much a 5%.
Of course bankruptcy judge can cram down pensions. Just like a judge can cram down a commercial real estate loan on a business. Is moral hazard only to be endured by the dumb working stiff that owns a home? I welcome cram down legislation, lets level the playing field between business and consumers.
" Broward Horne writes:
If homeowners can cramdown mortgages...
can employers cramdown pensions?!
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | # "
Been done already. In fact, I live down the street from one of the first guys to do it in the early '80's. He ran a company for 19 years, and then fired everyone and closed the factory. I think that they passed a law against that afterward, but employers have since just found clever ways to pilfer the retirement chest.
....geeze....billionaires falling in front of trains, all things financial are down, professional thieves in Russia & Ukraine fighting over gas, Jews & Arabs at it again..........
....what a pleasant news day! DOW up about 150 you think?
But GS just said SP to 1200. I went all in based on the predictions by these upstanding citizens and patriotic Americans. They wouldn't lie to the world just to benifit themselves...would they?
...increasing home sales do not necessarily reflect a positive in this economy...
a friend, who owns a small business abd a house in the Temecula area is purchasing a $140,000.00 house with the idea that he can rent it now, but, should his business fail (a strong probability) he can walk away from his upside down house and move into the $140K dwelling....
This guy is fiscally conservative, but has been absolutely hammered by the lack of retail sales, etc.
I opted out of the company's 401k plan. They automatically start deducting from your check unless you say otherwise. Will Obama make it mandatory to contribute?
Anyhow, the woman at Vanguard thought I was nuts. You'll be giving up the company match, she said. I said, yeah, I know, now opt me out. I figured it was useless to tell her my resons why.
This was from Tanta's Oct 2007 entry, that describes the unintended consequences of this activity:
In fact, I have some sympathy with the view that mortgage lenders "perform a valuable social service through their loans." That's why, when they stop doing that and become predators, equity strippers, and bubble-blowers instead of valuable social service providers, I like seeing BK judges slap them around. Everybody talks a lot about moral hazard, and the reality is that you're a lot less likely to put a borrower with a weak credit history, whose income you did not verify and whose debt ratios are absurd, into a 100% financed home purchase loan on terms that are "affordable" only for a year or two, if you face having that loan restructured in Chapter 13. If you are aware that your mortgage loan can be crammed down, I'm here to tell you that you will certainly not "forget" to model negative HPA in your ratings models, and will probably pay more than a few seconds' attention to your appraisals. You might even decide that, if a loan does get into trouble, you're better off working it out yourself, via forbearance or modification or short sale, rather than hanging tough and letting the BK judge tell you what you'll accept. That would be a major bummer, right?
But I think my favorite part of the MBA lament is this: "HR 3609 would cast doubt on the value of the asset against which the mortgage loan is secured." Translation: lenders mark to model, but if you let them, BK judges will mark to market.
But I think my favorite part of the MBA lament is this: "HR 3609 would cast doubt on the value of the asset against which the mortgage loan is secured." Translation: lenders mark to model, but if you let them, BK judges will mark to market.
a friend, who owns a small business and a house in the Temecula area is purchasing a $140,000.00 house with the idea that he can rent it now, but, should his business fail (a strong probability) he can walk away from his upside down house and move into the $140K dwelling....
This guy is fiscally conservative, but has been absolutely hammered by the lack of retail sales, etc.
he is in "Survivor Mode"...
Beaver
Now instead of worrying about the viability of his business he can worry about the viability of Temecula.
A French aristocrat killed himself on Madoff fraud and now one of the wealthiest German, Warren Buffet of Germany, killed himself by throwing himself in front of a train because he got caught in the financial manipulations of the Scam Market. At least these people still have some shame. The creeps like Madoff have no shame. Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City are scums of the earth and Manhattan is a cesspool of fraud and corruption where bankers and financiers are raised in a culture of fraud.
Is that a joke? A German named Warren Buffet? First, we lect a president who's name is a croos between Osama bin Laden and Sadaam Hussein, and one of the wealthiest men in Germany is named Warren Buffet. Who's writing this shit?
But GS just said SP to 1200. I went all in based on the predictions by these upstanding citizens and patriotic Americans. They wouldn't lie to the world just to benifit themselves...would they? Anonymous | 01.06.09 - 10:43 am | #
GS isn't lying.... they run the government and Wall Street. 1200 it is.
"I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
Re Madoff, he is one shrewd gamester...he and and his sons have made a few public moves to establish their innocence...but to believe this, is to believe in fairy tales. Madoff let no one except family members near his asset management biz, and a gullible public is supposed to believe one man did all the trades, sent out the brokerage statements, and oversaw all details of a 50 billion scam over decades while his sons knew nothing.
The necessity of a periodic Jubilee. The enslaving nature of exponential expectations in a linear world. The necessity of cleaning house. A caution about prolonging misery and enabling the less productive sector of society. When does state power supplant free disposition of one's accumulated past works (capital)?
The Price of Capitalism. Entries by Karl Denninger - The Market Ticker
Suicide index would be a leading or lagging indicator? Wealthy guys off thenselves after they have lost their money so, I'm thinking lagging. Give me two more suicides and I'm all i
GS is a garbage barge. The fact that the idiot Jim Oneil is published in the FT speaks to the newspapers continuing spiral. here is hoping that by the end of the GS coffin is nailed shut.
Would this be considered suicide? Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:56 am | # I just looked t the 6mo EEV chart. Mien Gott! What about that doesn't shout "run away scresaming?" Yes, participating in something that volatile, you might as well give all your money to picosecond traders and save the intermediary stress of having them take it from you.
Suicide is ever tragic. As an indicator, it says that captains of industry foresee a long slog of wealth destruction, no timely rebound in their remaining lifetime, a collapse of opportunities, and an insurmountable despair. What individual, having risen through financial ranks by wit, merit, and persistence, casts away his total fortune and very existence if he does not believe his future will be a harshness unmitigated by any joy?
Who, for one grape, would the vine destroy? Or contrariwise, who would for loss of one grape sunder under a vineyard?
Re Pension Cramdowns
Studibaker started the practice way back in the day. I remember a Studibaker dealer next door to the gas station I worked at. Studi went BK after they raided the workers pension funds and left them with no pension plan. Already retired workers got their pension checks stopped. This was the start of government take over of the pension plans of BK businesses.
Who Ray for financial innovation!
Johnny Lee writes:
Suicide is ever tragic. As an indicator, it says that captains of industry foresee a long slog of wealth destruction, no timely rebound in their remaining lifetime, a collapse of opportunities, and an insurmountable despair
Good point. Leading indicator it is. I'm all in shorts.
"I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
I'd guess either:
a)Dad is throwing himself to the wolves again to reestablish the bona fides of the sons as stand up guys (which probably means the Madoffs picked up the vibe that the investigators are starting to doubt the Sterling character of the sons)
or
b)The sons already have squirreled away real money and don't want to blow it now with a dumb petty theft. If you have 6 figures stashed in Switzerland do you want to risk going to prison over a $5k necklace?
I weep for Eric's cash, puts, and calls. Johnny Lee | 01.06.09 - 11:07 am | #
Well, that's what I'm trying to figure out. I made decent coin last year, but I would've made more had I just put the positions on, and not fucked around with them. Plus, I'd have more time to download and enjoy porn if I wasn't weeping all the time.
We are beginning to see a rise in petty crime (car breakins) in Brooklyn.
Gary
Me too. Higher end condos in Atlanta. 5 car windows busted out last week and a half. One armed robbery, shotgun to the head, 9 pm, Christnas eve, victims ok
Just posted from the NYTimes, the Manhattan residential real estate market is showing "marked declines"...this coupled with a rental vacancy that jumped to 4.7% up from a norm of 2%.
Lowering gates on gaoled assets. Disorderly demands to go to cash.
Next leg down. Capitulation happened months ago. Trying to restrain the disorderly directives to go liquid in an attempt at orderly liquidation is why government has wormed itself into every market.
Prices must be made to rise before they can be allowed to plummet again.
OT: I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate. The post that sparked their interest in having me on can be found here: Blog - Zacks Equity Research Analyst Blog
It is also on Yahoo Finance if you look under tickers M, KSS, HD, JCP or SHLD
Death by train - a pretty common form of German suicide, actually.
Generally, when the Bahn announces schedule problems due to such incidents, they are generally called 'Personenschaden' - 'personal/bodily injury' isn't that good a translation, but 'person damage' sounds pretty strange in English. Especially as generally, the term is used to cover up the unpleasant truth that the problem is a dead person.
Some of these incidents are accidents, of course, but suicides comprise a surmised majority of such cases. What is interesting is that a larger public sympathy is extended to the engineer, who is an unwilling accomplice in killing someone, than the person committing suicide.
Though somewhat unlikely in Merckle's case, one reason that people here throw themselves in front of trains is the amount of attention it receives, even if they are unable to experience it. Most likely in his case, he just wanted to make sure he died - many people here favor throwing themselves in front of trains going 70-100mph, as they also pass through normal train stops.
'Death by train' as a cause for suicide is likely more common in Germany than 'death by car.' Though as noted by the term 'Dunkelziffer'/'estimated number of unreported cases,' the area is not very precise. However, killing yourself in a car accident simply doesn't achieve the same level of fleeting fame caused by one's own death.
The news is really picking up attention in Germany - and the attention aspect of his suicide seems to be precluded by the fact that it wasn't even noticed for a period of time. However, he did leave a letter behind, so cleverly concealed murder appears unlikely.
EEM trying to breakout thanks to move on oil to @50. though on weak volume. With all the talk here of being stopped out on EEV, it may be time to start getting into it at these levels, weak shorts being stopped. BRIC looks very weak and Gazprom will implode soon enough...there could be a move by military against Ukraine by Kremli
Dirk van Dijk writes:
"I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate."
Dirk, my compliments. How about a bullet for the savers who are getting screwed by the government's political preference for debtors. The moaning about low savings is the most hypocritical posture of all.
For the comments regarding Madoff's sons - quite possibly they were as dirty as daddy.
But one thing that continues to strike me is how imaginary the 'trades' and 'accounts' were - actually, I can imagine one fairly competent individual simply tarpapering a massive scam, in part because it seems like his client list is at worst in the hundreds - and if many simply rolled over their 'earnings,' he didn't even have much work to do.
And let's be real cynical - no profits means no problems with the IRS, right? After all, in terms of the IRS, Madoff was pretty close to golden - no gains, no taxes, no hassles.
No arguments about motivations, but the possibility is there. After all, daddy, and now possibly mommy, may go to jail because of what the sons said - and their being in jail is unlikely to help the family coordinate a cover up. Not that it seems to be working that well at this point, anyways. Depending on how you look at it, of course.
I think a lot of the money involved was imaginary anyways, which is why 50 billion such be approached carefully. If 100 million dollars was invested 10 years ago with a 10% return and never taken out, how much money beyond 100 million was actually lost? And how much beyond that 100 million ever existed, regardless of the clearly lying account statements that the owner of the 100 million believed in.
rent_to_own says"Recognizing all the complexity and layering involved, I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
Or... there are 2 sons and it's every man for himself. In other words, it could be the Prisoner's Dilemma and both sides folded.
We get the Fed minutes today. Must have been a few slack jaws at that meeting given the unanimous decision to go ZIRP & declare future war on 10 yr yields.
Hit the Bid writes:
So is it time to puke up my Emerging Mkts shorts, or is their absurd optimism going to fade as more economic realities set in?
EEV can easily double from current levels in a few months (or less). Depends on exactly how long the "next leg down" takes.
I still contend owning EEV in the mid-$40s will be a good trade with minimum drawdown (btw, still long, I didn't take my stop of a few cents below yesteray's low).
What's holding EEM up at the moment is the oil equities (from anywhere), and they're in the process of turning. Look at XOM - very clear failure in progress.
My best guess is Goodwill and the Salvation Army, some may still go to Wal-Mart, Big Lots and Family Dollar, but those will be the "luxury retailers" of the future. WMT = SKS
Among other things, the legislation is likely to include specific instructions to assist homeowners facing foreclosure; more specific mandates on executive compensation for firms that receive government TARP funding, and at least tougher disclosure requirements on how TARP money is used by firms--particularly whether or not it is being used for new lending, as many lawmakers demand--the sources said.
I think we're all outraged that Merrill Lynch gets billions of dollars and then one of their executives goes out, after being with them three weeks, and buys a $27 million apartment on Park Avenue, House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer, (D-MD), told FOX News Sunday. We need to make sure that we have appropriate constraints in any money that is authorized under the second tranche of the TARP.
Sources said Rep. Barney Frank, (D-MA), the committee chairman, could introduce new TARP legislation as early as Friday, though Frank on Monday postponed a hearing on priorities for the next administration (on) use of TARP funds that was scheduled for this week.
While Democrats and President-elect Obama appear to be on the same page with limits on executive compensation and additional assistance for struggling homeowners, among other economic issues, there are pages -- and there are pages, one House staff member said.
Its that proverbial the devil is in the details', said Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, a Washington research firm. The Democratic leadership and the Obama incoming administration agree in general principal on issues like foreclosure avoidance. But how to do that there are many different approaches to that. And by dropping legislation if not necessarily moving to pass it, but by introducing it its a formal heads up to the Obama Administration on what Congress would like, and indeed how (Congress) might move forward if the president-elect takes a different course on the next phase of TARP.
Many House Republicans, as well as members of both parties in the Senate, also favor tougher conditions in the next TARP phase. Since Congress approved the TARP legislation in October, members have expressed increasing frustration with the Bush Administrations management of the TARP and enforcement of key provisions.
People are angry on both sides, Petrou said. Its going to be one of those (things) in a partisan year where Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing that they dont like what the TARP has been used for.
Among possible areas of conflict between Congressional Democrats and the president-elect, Frank has supported funding a proposal by the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair, to use government loan guarantees authorized in the TARP to encourage banks, investment funds and other holders of residential mortgages to restructure subprime and other non-traditional mortgages for homeowners facing foreclosure. The FDIC plan would -- for a period -- reimburse them up to 50% of the losses on a restructured mortgage if, after the holder makes it more affordable by lowering the interest rate, reducing the principal or adopting other better terms, the homeowner still defaults. The FDIC says the plan could help up to 1.5 million homeowners avoid foreclosure, but could cost the government more than $24 billion.
In his new TARP legislation, sources expect Frank to include possible directions to the Treasury to support the FDICs proposal -- or a version of it -- in the next phase of TARP. But while Mr. Obama favors additional government measures to help troubled homeowners, he has not specifically endorsed the FDIC plan.
One of the things Congress has been the most upset (about), particularly the Democrats have been the most upset about, is that while the law dictated action to prevent foreclosures, Treasury has done nothing regarding it, Petrou said. Its addressed foreclosures to some degree in other programs outside of the TARP, but it hasnt acted on the express authority in the law, the express mandate in the law, relating to mortgage foreclosures.
Also still long DUG (2x short oil stocks). The following have high volume hourly lows still untested from yesterday: CVX, COP, SLB, OXY, you get the picture. XOM is the worst. Not sure whether USO (crude) has turned, depends on the close.
It's actually an incredibly assholish way to go, if it's a passenger train.*
I've heard horror stories from train and bus drivers about suicides. How'd you like to be driving that thing when a guy ends it all on your windshield?
Also if it is a passenger train your final act is to inconvenience a bunch of complete strangers. Not infrequently a person will dive under a subway and ruin many peoples day.
Lastly, I knew a guy with mental troubles that jumped in front of a NJ Transit train. I really do feel for people who feel they have nothing to live for, but for christs sake what an incredibly thoughtless and selfish way to go.
If it was a freight train, much of my criticism here does not apply.
The 30 day CP spread boinged up 70+ bps to 265 bps...was it FE who called that yesterday (expected 300ish by end of week IIRC)?
Well, predicting it would pop back after that huge drop was a pretty short limb to go out on.
My guesstimate of 300 basis points actually does have some basis for it. AA nonfinancial paper was going at about 200 bp before the Fed intervened in that market and drove the rate almost to zero. If AA had been at 200 bp then the spread towards the end of last year would have been 300 and change. Figure there's some premium for end of year liquidity driving up the rate for the more questionable A2/P2 and you get an estimate for the true market rate of about 300 bp.
Theoretically when the Fed intervened in the AA market the A2/P2 market should have been arbitraged down to the market spread and we should have been able to read off the spread. But the bond market clearly can't do arbitrage right now, as shown by inverted swap spreads and TIP spreads. So it didn't happen and I had to guesstimate.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"EEV can easily double from current levels in a few months (or less)...
I still contend owning EEV in the mid-$40s will be a good trade with minimum drawdown"
2XS are slippery devils. They're great if you can catch the ride, but questionable to hold. But if EEV gets down to mid 40s its an easy call to try one more time. SRS is the one that puzzles me.
And Persecuted was clear that he was buying with tight stops; if he chose not to exercise that's his call, but others were warned.
Battman, Wolfman, Madman. They're all there. US financial system being front run by GS gov't hedge fund. If you're still in this market, you're cannon fodder to their whims. Video - CNBC.com
Re: ""A real estate-focused stimulus plan is urgently needed," Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist, said in a statement."
I agree with Yun 1000% and hope that Obama tries to re-pump The Ownership Society so that more people can have over-valued vacation homes to flip for greater profits!!! Go Obama, go Yun!
Most deaths are nasty. Rapid death from an accident is pretty mild as deaths go. I'd take it over the terminal illnesses and deaths of any of my family members. I agree death by train is a mean way to die because of the effects on the engineer and passengers.
The German dude was an idiot to die for money, but if his greed was so great that having a few million wasn't enough, then obviously he was very weak and had been consumed to a point of being evil.
And let's be real cynical - no profits means no problems with the IRS, right? After all, in terms of the IRS, Madoff was pretty close to golden - no gains, no taxes, no hassles.
rent_to_own | 01.06.09 - 11:38 am |
I'm sure most of his income came from fees he charged. I'm not sure he held any shares in his scam. If he did, he will probably be refiling his tax returns and getting refunds (which will be seized).
I'd prefer death by Swedish Massage. Why don't billionaires go out in luxury....like buy a jet plane and smash it into the side of a mountain, or something, or ski off a cliff in your flying suit without a parachute, or try to find and kill Osamma in the mountains of Pakistan?
Doesn't Madoff look well rested and jovial when strolling out of his nice home to go chat with his lawyers? His investors are killing themselves or broke, we're all fuming and he looks like he hasn't a care in the world. Maybe he doesn't. What does he know that we don't? Why isn't he in custody? What relationships does he have with politicians?
It was funny to hear he was stashing jewelry with all his innocent family members who had no idea what was happening. Wall St's business practices are brought to the street level.
just as last night, an 18-yo gal hanged herself - 3-days ago she was arrested for "warrants" - she had nothing in her life worth living for? How sad....
Dirk, enjoy your shining moment as a moral scold. Just hope no one on the panel knows why middle-income households don't save 10% anymore. Your advice on food and clothing would look pretty silly.
In my opinion, the worst part is this 'man' felt he had nothing to live for because all of his toys and power were going to be taken away.
Are we sure this is why he ended his life? Maybe he couldn't handle not winning. These people have huge, yet fragile egos. His id Bubble may have popped.
Dunno if it's intentional humor, or a server error, but....
HousingWire's RSS feed has an entry for "Treasury Reports Details on TARP Expenditures", but when you try and click on the story, it comes up with a 404 Error: Web page not found.
Maybe the reason he killed himself is he didn't want to spend the rest of his life dealing with all the insurmountable problems he had created. It's fun being a billionaire, no fun trying to keep things going that are falling apart like the U.S. economy.
if I were that German dude I would have took out a quick $10 million dollar loan credit, get on over to Amsterdam, get stoned and laid for 2 weeks straight, then overdose on Viagra while doing ten pornstar prostitutes at once. I think that would be an awesome fitting, proper end to a greedy and sinful lifestyle. YES!!!!!
What effect will bankruptcy cramdowns have on mortgage rates? Probably raise them, possibly significantly. Lenders will have to add that possibility to their models. Speaking of models, last spring I took a real estate finance course from a professor who built some of the basic models used for MBS pricing. He said that generally the models banks were using prior to the meltdown did not even account for foreclosures because the historical losses from foreclosures were statistically insignificant.
om Servo writes:
The recovery is just around the corner:
U.S. Nov. factory orders fall 4.6% vs. -2.2% expected
U.S. Nov. factory shipments fall record 5.3%
Tom Servo | 01.06.09 - 10:22 am | #
Tom- you are missing the point the greater they fall the quicker we get to zero and the bottom therefore the recovery is right around the corner. What part of Wall Street logic don't you get??
Black Star, is it illegal to have stock warrants now? Morocco Bama | 01.06.09 - 12:23 pm | #
Not yet Morocco, not yet. Ask Warren Buffett if he wishes his $125 Goldman (GS:$90.72) warrants were invalidated. Like all leverage schemes they exist to enrich the rich.
That 78% is over 8 billion cubic feet of gas a day (35.3 cubic feet per cubic meter)...
Russian gas disruption spreads across Europe
1 hr 57 mins ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) Russia sharply cut gas flows to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday in a dramatic worsening of a pricing dispute with Kiev that threatened to disrupt supplies as far west as Italy and Germany.
Russian export monopoly Gazprom said it had supplied around 65 million cubic meters (mcm) to Europe on Tuesday through ex-Soviet neighbor Ukraine, a fall of 78 percent from the 300 mcm it had been shipping since the dispute erupted on January 1. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Nonetheless, it is just another evidence point that the sons do seem to be playing fully within the rule of law that the father, if not the mother too, seem to have flouted for decades. In other words, they are as disgusted with a fraudulent crook as any other normal citizen, family obligation notwithstanding.
rent_to_own | 01.06.09 - 10:32 am | #
Alternatively, they are a chip of the old block and this all a very contrived action to demonstrate how honest they are, how much they are cooperating with the Government and therefore were not and should not be charged for any wrong doing by their Dad. Who the hell mails $25 cuff links (do you really think he owned any $25 cuff links- his mittens costing $200 (inexpensive according to the lawyer) seems to be more in line.
We don't know why anyone does anything, probably, many times, even ourselves. One of the wisest things anyone ever said was: Judge not. Still, the pictures coming out of Gaza of the children who were in that bombed school do provoke one to outrage.
Jonathan Swift:
'Gulliver's second voyage takes him to Brobdingnag. "I cannot but conclude that the bulk of your natives to be the most pernicious race of little odious vermin that nature ever suffered to crawl upon the surface of the earth."'
Also:
'"They look upon fraud as a greater crime than theft, and therefore seldom fail to punish it with death; for they alledge, that care and vigilan[c]e, with a very common understanding, may preserve a man's goods from thieves; but honesty hat no fence against superior cunning: and since it is necessary that there should be a perpetual intercourse of buying and selling, and dealing upon credit; where fraud is permitted or connived at, or hath no Law to punish it, the honest dealer is always undone and the knave gets the advantage." (from Gulliver's Travels: 'A Voyage to Lilliput')'
Black Star Ranch writes:
just as last night, an 18-yo gal hanged herself - 3-days ago she was arrested for "warrants" - she had nothing in her life worth living for? How sad....
Black Star Ranch | 01.06.09 - 12:19 pm | #
and we wonder why and condemn somebody would strap a suicide vest to right what they perceive to be historic wrongs but mourn a teenager who commits suicide because they got stood up for the prom.
Excuse me but aren't there one or two regular posters here that have been bashing the US for a long time while and holding up Germany as a better example?
On second thought, maybe they have a point. A few paper billionare implosions might be a cathartic event that satisfies the proles hunger for rough justice.
Wdenesday is a holiday in Russia and the Ukraine, so it will be Thursday that talks resume - and when action will be taken...?
Natural gas shortages slam some European nations
By MARIA DANILOVA, Associated Press Writer Maria Danilova, Associated Press Writer 2 hrs 17 mins ago
KIEV, Ukraine A natural gas crisis loomed over Europe on Tuesday, as a contract dispute between Russia and Ukraine shut off Russian gas supplies to six countries and reduced gas deliveries to several others.
At least two Bulgarian cities were totally without gas, and nations like Turkey were turning to Iran to bolster their supplies.
[snip]
Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments. Croatia said it was temporarily reducing supplies to industrial customers and urged consumers to use gas sparingly in their homes. Bulgaria said it had enough gas for only "for a few days." Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Re: Merckle, this is hard for me to understand. He had as much left as anybody. The rain has fallen on the just and the unjust. (though in that context, rain is good.) In short, there are 1000 rationalizations for failure, 500 of them reasonable. What kind of a message is he sending to all the truly desperate people out there?
Vertical integration of the global economy. We are bank, we are manufacturer with gov't backstop. How is US different than China? They have freer markets? Video - CNBC.com
Steven L. Good, chairman and CEO of Sheldon Good & Co. Auctions International LLC, was found dead in his car in unincorporated Kane County in an apparent suicide, according to Kane County Sheriff's office reports.
Good was an attorney and had assumed significant leadership positions in national and local real estate trade associations,
"I can discover no political evil in suffering bullies, sharpers, and rakes, to rid the world of each other by a method of their own; where the law hath not been able to find an expedient."
* A Treatise on Good Manners and Good Breeding
His epitaph:
Ubi saeva indignatio ulterius cor lacerare nequit
Translation: Where savage indignation can lacerate his heart no more."
Epitaph. Inscribed on Swift's grave, St. Patrick's, Dublin.
Vertical integration of the global economy. We are bank, we are manufacturer with gov't backstop. How is US different than China? They have freer markets? Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke | 01.06.09 - 12:42 pm | # The difference? The Chinese reward failure with a lead bullet instead of a golden parachute.
"Too many distractions and too much fragmentation...."
...you're right! It sounds awfully simplistic, but band, baseball, and chores kept the last two boys pretty centered and focused. But then I've been lucky with most of mine....
"Or... there are 2 sons and it's every man for himself. In other words, it could be the Prisoner's Dilemma and both sides folded.
BondsOfSteel | 01.06.09 - 11:44 am | # "
I am waiting to hear that Madoff actually has no sons--it was all an accounting trick.
$700 Billion TARP funds sent to fractionalized banking system, levered up a minimum 10:1. Presto! 7 trillion for asset purchases. Stabilization and Stimulation.
"We need to trasfer substantial private assets to the public sphere".
Dovetails nicely with Buiter's work, don't you think? Video - CNBC.com
Starting in May 2006, the CME set up futures contracts for 10 metropolitan real estate markets, allowing investors to bet whether prices would go up or down and by how much.
By the end of 2006 those futures were pointing to real estate price declines between 5 percent and 7 percent in those markets, Shiller said. That ended up in line with the 6.7 percent annual decline in the October reading of S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which was the largest drop recorded in that 20-year-old price measure.
I'll agree the suicides are a forward indicator. One request, let's not let it dominate all the CR threads today. (I normally just lurk these days and read...)
How timely , I am in the process of taking an online a continuing ed course for renewing my RE license ( I have to have a license for property that I manage . And no I am not a NAR / "Realtor" .
"Yep, it really is different this time... Ukraine can't afford to pay and Russia can't afford to float them at below market rates...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 1:19 pm | # "
Ukraine can afford to pay in naval ports (Sevastopol).
Next year, housing prices will fall another 10 percent nationally, based on the year-over-year change to the 20-city S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for October 2009 (this report gets released at the end of December and showed an 18 percent decline last week.) It seems that home price declines have to ease up. For example, based on their current trajectory, by the end of next year the median home price in Los Angeles would be below $200,000, down from a high of $550,000 in 2007.
Agreed...and Central/Eastern Euro customers can't afford to pay increased rates that would cover Ukraine and Russia. My guess is that this energy dispute might be the driver of significantly increased civil unrest in Europe.
"Ukraine can afford to pay in naval ports (Sevastopol)."
I have a feeling that this situation will not end well.
Anyway, Russia was always an enigma, but at least the people on the highest levels probably understood what was happening. In the case of Ukraine, I'm not so sure.
Also, re increased crime...Seattle police are reporting significant increases in car break ins throughout the city. Seattle Times report says citizens are leaving cars unlocked in hopes that thieves will not smash windows to get whatever they want out of the cars. One incident involved thieves breaking into the trunk(!) to get at purses.
"might be the driver of significantly increased civil unrest in Europe."
I doubt it - no one in those regions have any illusions about relying on their fraternal Russian comrades. As for the Ukrainians - no one has much sympathy for them, either. Comes from their being long term deadbeats reliant on Russian largesse for much of their economic activity. Though many Americans seem to think the Ukraine is somehow European, most Europeans think of them as something else - 'Russian.'
"and we wonder why and condemn somebody would strap a suicide vest to right what they perceive to be historic wrongs but mourn a teenager who commits suicide because they got stood up for the prom.
crazyvermonter | 01.06.09 - 12:34 pm | # "
Umm - The person who commits train suicide is killing himself. The person who straps on a bomb is killing other (innocent) people. There's a slight difference between the 2. Duh....
can employers cramdown pensions?! Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | #
Don't know if this was covered already but the important point to remember is that pensions CAN be crammed down but only as part of a corporate bankruptcy and even then they are turned over to the quasi-gov't PBGC (Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp) to administrate. There they will receive benefits but at a lower level than originally promised.
The point about mortgage cramdowns is to give BK judges latitude to decide whether to cramdown or foreclose/sell the assets... the thing is it should NOT be to give the debtor a 'better deal' rather to give the creditors the best possible deal available. Remember this isn't just a foreclosure proceeding it is also a bankruptcy so the debtor walks away wiped out regardless - just not necessarily wiped out AND STILL underwater.
I'd be surprised given the decay in the RRE market if many debtors would push for a cramdown - they probably would be more than happy to just walk away - any attempt by a judge to attach the asset back to the debtor will be temporary [next time they will run instead or just walk].
But what do I know... been in the same house for over 25 years and was never underwater.
first
Damn - Racer X is always behind.
The 30 day CP spread boinged up 70+ bps to 265 bps...was it FE who called that yesterday (expected 300ish by end of week IIRC)?
Can someone point me to a discussion on increased foreclosures on "prime" mortgages? TIA
If homeowners can cramdown mortgages...
can employers cramdown pensions?!
.
(the opposite of the NAR view - what a surprise!)
Safest best going the past 3 years.
can employers cramdown pensions?!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | #
Declaring BK pretty much makes this automatic...... the federal program has caps.
can employers cramdown pensions?!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | #
I'm waiting for the Cali BK to cramdown state worker pay, pensions & benefits.
The recovery is just around the corner:
U.S. Nov. factory orders fall 4.6% vs. -2.2% expected
U.S. Nov. factory shipments fall record 5.3%
I'm waiting for the Cali BK to cramdown state worker pay, pensions & benefits
That's more in line with my thoughts.
.
How many years did the last housing crash last? 88-93?
Non-Manufacturing ISM Report is better than expected: 40.6 vs. 37.0 consensus (Nov was 37.3). So the sector is still contracting but not as fast as before. The contraction is broad based. Only one sector registered growth - Retail, and this is not going to last
Prices really didn't bottom in SoCal until '96.
"Factory activity contracted in December at the fastest pace since 1980, the Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management said last week. The groups measure for new orders reached its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1948, and prices slid the most since 1949."
Factory Orders in the U.S. Tumble More Than Forecast (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Not exactly more appropriate here, but still interesting -
'The sons of Bernard Madoff, who is accused of orchestrating a massive Ponzi scheme, told prosecutors last week that their father violated a court-ordered asset freeze by mailing them jewelry, watches and other items, his lawyer said.
U.S. prosecutors yesterday asked a federal judge to revoke Madoffs bail because he violated the freeze. U.S. Magistrate Judge Ronald Ellis asked for legal briefs by Jan. 7 from the government and from Madoff, who remains free in his Manhattan apartment on a $10 million bond. '
Top Financial News refer=home
Recognizing all the complexity and layering involved, I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system).
Nonetheless, it is just another evidence point that the sons do seem to be playing fully within the rule of law that the father, if not the mother too, seem to have flouted for decades. In other words, they are as disgusted with a fraudulent crook as any other normal citizen, family obligation notwithstanding.
Just in case anyone wasn't looking:
Here is today's release:
Economic Slump Weakens Pending Home Sales
WASHINGTON, January 06, 2009
After holding fairly stable for a year, pending home sales declined in the face of job losses and an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 4.0 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised reading of 85.7 in October...
And this from last month:
Pending Home Sales Holding In Stable Range
WASHINGTON, December 09, 2008
Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9...
88.9 to 85.7 is on heck of a refinement. Keep in mind that the figures out today could be revised as much a 5%.
--
An analyst (a cute woman) on CNBC talking about the US housing:
A circular negative chaos!
Jas
" ...contracted in December at the fastest pace since....."
The stands would be empty is Bloomberg called Nascar.
Of course bankruptcy judge can cram down pensions. Just like a judge can cram down a commercial real estate loan on a business. Is moral hazard only to be endured by the dumb working stiff that owns a home? I welcome cram down legislation, lets level the playing field between business and consumers.
" Broward Horne writes:
If homeowners can cramdown mortgages...
can employers cramdown pensions?!
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | # "
Been done already. In fact, I live down the street from one of the first guys to do it in the early '80's. He ran a company for 19 years, and then fired everyone and closed the factory. I think that they passed a law against that afterward, but employers have since just found clever ways to pilfer the retirement chest.
http://blogs.timesunion.com/advocate/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/big3bailout.jpg
....geeze....billionaires falling in front of trains, all things financial are down, professional thieves in Russia & Ukraine fighting over gas, Jews & Arabs at it again..........
....what a pleasant news day! DOW up about 150 you think?
But GS just said SP to 1200. I went all in based on the predictions by these upstanding citizens and patriotic Americans. They wouldn't lie to the world just to benifit themselves...would they?
I couldn't afford a home for the past few years so I did not buy one. I should have.
It boggles my mind to think that the statement above is true.
...increasing home sales do not necessarily reflect a positive in this economy...
a friend, who owns a small business abd a house in the Temecula area is purchasing a $140,000.00 house with the idea that he can rent it now, but, should his business fail (a strong probability) he can walk away from his upside down house and move into the $140K dwelling....
This guy is fiscally conservative, but has been absolutely hammered by the lack of retail sales, etc.
he is in "Survivor Mode"...
Black Star
Are you going to be taking on boarders at the ranch? I can milk goats and cows and work the fields.
I opted out of the company's 401k plan. They automatically start deducting from your check unless you say otherwise. Will Obama make it mandatory to contribute?
Anyhow, the woman at Vanguard thought I was nuts. You'll be giving up the company match, she said. I said, yeah, I know, now opt me out. I figured it was useless to tell her my resons why.
OT: Cram-Downs from previous post
This was from Tanta's Oct 2007 entry, that describes the unintended consequences of this activity:
In fact, I have some sympathy with the view that mortgage lenders "perform a valuable social service through their loans." That's why, when they stop doing that and become predators, equity strippers, and bubble-blowers instead of valuable social service providers, I like seeing BK judges slap them around. Everybody talks a lot about moral hazard, and the reality is that you're a lot less likely to put a borrower with a weak credit history, whose income you did not verify and whose debt ratios are absurd, into a 100% financed home purchase loan on terms that are "affordable" only for a year or two, if you face having that loan restructured in Chapter 13. If you are aware that your mortgage loan can be crammed down, I'm here to tell you that you will certainly not "forget" to model negative HPA in your ratings models, and will probably pay more than a few seconds' attention to your appraisals. You might even decide that, if a loan does get into trouble, you're better off working it out yourself, via forbearance or modification or short sale, rather than hanging tough and letting the BK judge tell you what you'll accept. That would be a major bummer, right?
But I think my favorite part of the MBA lament is this: "HR 3609 would cast doubt on the value of the asset against which the mortgage loan is secured." Translation: lenders mark to model, but if you let them, BK judges will mark to market.
IBM Chief: IT Investment Will Create Jobs - WSJ.com
IBM CEO says 30 bln in IT spending will create 1 million jobs [in India]!
he can walk away from his upside down house and move into the $140K dwelling
I was in a condo yesterday which was purchased for the same reason.
.
PS - This is my favorite part of the cram-down:
But I think my favorite part of the MBA lament is this: "HR 3609 would cast doubt on the value of the asset against which the mortgage loan is secured." Translation: lenders mark to model, but if you let them, BK judges will mark to market.
a friend, who owns a small business and a house in the Temecula area is purchasing a $140,000.00 house with the idea that he can rent it now, but, should his business fail (a strong probability) he can walk away from his upside down house and move into the $140K dwelling....
This guy is fiscally conservative, but has been absolutely hammered by the lack of retail sales, etc.
he is in "Survivor Mode"...
Beaver
Now instead of worrying about the viability of his business he can worry about the viability of Temecula.
Temecula, gateway to the Inland Empire.
Real Estate and Brokerage CEO commits suicide per this story
Daily Herald | Suburban real estate CEO found dead
--
A Wealthy German Kills Himself
A French aristocrat killed himself on Madoff fraud and now one of the wealthiest German, Warren Buffet of Germany, killed himself by throwing himself in front of a train because he got caught in the financial manipulations of the Scam Market. At least these people still have some shame. The creeps like Madoff have no shame. Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City are scums of the earth and Manhattan is a cesspool of fraud and corruption where bankers and financiers are raised in a culture of fraud.
Jas
Is that a joke? A German named Warren Buffet? First, we lect a president who's name is a croos between Osama bin Laden and Sadaam Hussein, and one of the wealthiest men in Germany is named Warren Buffet. Who's writing this shit?
Jas - American banksters and politians have no such shame. Unfortunately.
German billionaire commits suicide.
(Of course, that should be former billionaire.)
So is it time to puke up my Emerging Mkts shorts, or is their absurd optimism going to fade as more economic realities set in?
EEV is killing me right now.
It's always a good thing when a billionaire dies. If only it would happen more often.
I don't know, we may be hitting a bottom. Suicide index is thru the roof.
But GS just said SP to 1200. I went all in based on the predictions by these upstanding citizens and patriotic Americans. They wouldn't lie to the world just to benifit themselves...would they?
Anonymous | 01.06.09 - 10:43 am | #
GS isn't lying.... they run the government and Wall Street. 1200 it is.
"I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
Re Madoff, he is one shrewd gamester...he and and his sons have made a few public moves to establish their innocence...but to believe this, is to believe in fairy tales. Madoff let no one except family members near his asset management biz, and a gullible public is supposed to believe one man did all the trades, sent out the brokerage statements, and oversaw all details of a 50 billion scam over decades while his sons knew nothing.
Oh come on now Morocco!
EEV is killing me right now
Would this be considered suicide?
.
The necessity of a periodic Jubilee. The enslaving nature of exponential expectations in a linear world. The necessity of cleaning house. A caution about prolonging misery and enabling the less productive sector of society. When does state power supplant free disposition of one's accumulated past works (capital)?
The Price of Capitalism.
Entries by Karl Denninger - The Market Ticker
Suicide index would be a leading or lagging indicator? Wealthy guys off thenselves after they have lost their money so, I'm thinking lagging. Give me two more suicides and I'm all i
GS is a garbage barge. The fact that the idiot Jim Oneil is published in the FT speaks to the newspapers continuing spiral. here is hoping that by the end of the GS coffin is nailed shut.
EEV is killing me right now
Would this be considered suicide?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:56 am | #
I just looked t the 6mo EEV chart. Mien Gott! What about that doesn't shout "run away scresaming?" Yes, participating in something that volatile, you might as well give all your money to picosecond traders and save the intermediary stress of having them take it from you.
EEV is killing me right now.
Hit the Bid
I like PCA but, he gave EEV the kiss of death yesterday afternoon when he signaled a buy at approx. 46.50
Suicide is ever tragic. As an indicator, it says that captains of industry foresee a long slog of wealth destruction, no timely rebound in their remaining lifetime, a collapse of opportunities, and an insurmountable despair. What individual, having risen through financial ranks by wit, merit, and persistence, casts away his total fortune and very existence if he does not believe his future will be a harshness unmitigated by any joy?
Who, for one grape, would the vine destroy? Or contrariwise, who would for loss of one grape sunder under a vineyard?
Re Pension Cramdowns
Studibaker started the practice way back in the day. I remember a Studibaker dealer next door to the gas station I worked at. Studi went BK after they raided the workers pension funds and left them with no pension plan. Already retired workers got their pension checks stopped. This was the start of government take over of the pension plans of BK businesses.
Who Ray for financial innovation!
Johnny Lee writes:
Suicide is ever tragic. As an indicator, it says that captains of industry foresee a long slog of wealth destruction, no timely rebound in their remaining lifetime, a collapse of opportunities, and an insurmountable despair
Good point. Leading indicator it is. I'm all in shorts.
I'm trying to decide if I want to trade at all this year, or whether I want to go the Taleb route:
90% cash, 5% OTM puts 5% OTM calls. All Dec'09 strikes (probably SPY 80 puts and 105 calls).
Any opinions? I'm really really tempted by the (chuckle) "low" VIX here.
"I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
I'd guess either:
a)Dad is throwing himself to the wolves again to reestablish the bona fides of the sons as stand up guys (which probably means the Madoffs picked up the vibe that the investigators are starting to doubt the Sterling character of the sons)
or
b)The sons already have squirreled away real money and don't want to blow it now with a dumb petty theft. If you have 6 figures stashed in Switzerland do you want to risk going to prison over a $5k necklace?
I weep for Eric's cash, puts, and calls.
Shoplifting and suicides. Just wait till the crash and CDS explosion in April. SP from 1,200 to 400.
I weep for Eric's cash, puts, and calls.
Johnny Lee | 01.06.09 - 11:07 am | #
Well, that's what I'm trying to figure out. I made decent coin last year, but I would've made more had I just put the positions on, and not fucked around with them. Plus, I'd have more time to download and enjoy porn if I wasn't weeping all the time.
Senate secretary won't let Burris in the chamber. Told Burris his papers aren't in order
Madoff's boys maybe just Ponzi Savant's.
We are beginning to see a rise in petty crime (car breakins) in Brooklyn.
Eric - Vix could go lower before it goes higher.
I don't see what can trigger the next capitulation with all these bailouts...
Summary for the day: BAD.
Cordially,
K. Trout
We are beginning to see a rise in petty crime (car breakins) in Brooklyn.
Gary
Me too. Higher end condos in Atlanta. 5 car windows busted out last week and a half. One armed robbery, shotgun to the head, 9 pm, Christnas eve, victims ok
Gov. Blago should have appointed himself, he would fit right in, anywhere on the hill.
Stopped out on both EEV and SRS, although case for SRS remains compelling. Tight stops, didn't hurt to play. TBT and DXO, jury's still out.
Just posted from the NYTimes, the Manhattan residential real estate market is showing "marked declines"...this coupled with a rental vacancy that jumped to 4.7% up from a norm of 2%.
Striking Declines Seen in Manhattan Real Estate Market - NY Times
One armed robbery, shotgun to the head, 9 pm, Christnas eve, victims ok
How did a one armed guy hold a shotgun and collect the goods?
Sorry...
Eric, good idea. Can also bet on the stocks that fell 90% in '08. And hedge with short ETF.
a long slog of wealth destruction, no timely rebound in their remaining lifetime, a collapse of opportunities
Yeah, I'm hearing that.
I found something to help me hang on, though!
Meet the New Lara Croft – Photo Gallery | Buzz Newsroom
.
Lowering gates on gaoled assets. Disorderly demands to go to cash.
Next leg down. Capitulation happened months ago. Trying to restrain the disorderly directives to go liquid in an attempt at orderly liquidation is why government has wormed itself into every market.
Prices must be made to rise before they can be allowed to plummet again.
I see must turd seeds everywhere.
How did a one armed guy hold a shotgun and collect the goods?
Sorry...
W00T
2 guys. Met victim in parking lot, went into his condo.
OT: I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate. The post that sparked their interest in having me on can be found here:
Blog - Zacks Equity Research Analyst Blog
It is also on Yahoo Finance if you look under tickers M, KSS, HD, JCP or SHLD
2 guys. Met victim in parking lot, went into his condo.
Anonymous
LOL... woooosh!
Death by train - a pretty common form of German suicide, actually.
Generally, when the Bahn announces schedule problems due to such incidents, they are generally called 'Personenschaden' - 'personal/bodily injury' isn't that good a translation, but 'person damage' sounds pretty strange in English. Especially as generally, the term is used to cover up the unpleasant truth that the problem is a dead person.
Some of these incidents are accidents, of course, but suicides comprise a surmised majority of such cases. What is interesting is that a larger public sympathy is extended to the engineer, who is an unwilling accomplice in killing someone, than the person committing suicide.
Though somewhat unlikely in Merckle's case, one reason that people here throw themselves in front of trains is the amount of attention it receives, even if they are unable to experience it. Most likely in his case, he just wanted to make sure he died - many people here favor throwing themselves in front of trains going 70-100mph, as they also pass through normal train stops.
'Death by train' as a cause for suicide is likely more common in Germany than 'death by car.' Though as noted by the term 'Dunkelziffer'/'estimated number of unreported cases,' the area is not very precise. However, killing yourself in a car accident simply doesn't achieve the same level of fleeting fame caused by one's own death.
The news is really picking up attention in Germany - and the attention aspect of his suicide seems to be precluded by the fact that it wasn't even noticed for a period of time. However, he did leave a letter behind, so cleverly concealed murder appears unlikely.
EEM trying to breakout thanks to move on oil to @50. though on weak volume. With all the talk here of being stopped out on EEV, it may be time to start getting into it at these levels, weak shorts being stopped. BRIC looks very weak and Gazprom will implode soon enough...there could be a move by military against Ukraine by Kremli
what are the odds that madoff gets "charged" with involuntary manslaughter for the french suicide...
Cuomo could use a stunt like that...
Dirk van Dijk writes:
"I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate."
Dirk, my compliments. How about a bullet for the savers who are getting screwed by the government's political preference for debtors. The moaning about low savings is the most hypocritical posture of all.
BRIC looks very weak and Gazprom will implode soon enough...there could be a move by military against Ukraine by Kremlin
Sam
Cash flows into emerging markets have to reduced. Advanced nations have to see to their own problems. I like EEV
"The process has MUCH further to run. Avoid retailers like Macys (M), Kohls (KSS), Home Depot (HD), Sears (SHLD) and JC Penney (JCP)..."
Hmmm, where will the consumers go ?
EEV always looks great. Until it doesn't. Another new low today. But so tempting. Just like SRS....
Dirk - please mention to CNBC how in this environment any stimulus will not be very effective.
Sounds likely to be the plot of an upcoming L&O episode.
Durr. Meant to include this:
"what are the odds that madoff gets "charged" with involuntary manslaughter for the french suicide...
Cuomo could use a stunt like that..."
Dirk,
If it fits into the conversation point out that current policies forgive debt and tax savings. No one should be surprised at the outcome.
dirk,
Maybe ask them at CNBC why none of their anchors or hosts made the top 10 list of stupid quotes of the year.
That is if you don't want to be invited back....
Famous Last Words - CNBC
rent_to_own | 01.06.09 - 10:32 am
Dirk, If you're in the studio please give Kudlow a swift kick in the nuts and one in the teeth too for good measure.
Tell him it's from bearly.
How about a bullet for the savers
Oh, what V said!
.
For the comments regarding Madoff's sons - quite possibly they were as dirty as daddy.
But one thing that continues to strike me is how imaginary the 'trades' and 'accounts' were - actually, I can imagine one fairly competent individual simply tarpapering a massive scam, in part because it seems like his client list is at worst in the hundreds - and if many simply rolled over their 'earnings,' he didn't even have much work to do.
And let's be real cynical - no profits means no problems with the IRS, right? After all, in terms of the IRS, Madoff was pretty close to golden - no gains, no taxes, no hassles.
No arguments about motivations, but the possibility is there. After all, daddy, and now possibly mommy, may go to jail because of what the sons said - and their being in jail is unlikely to help the family coordinate a cover up. Not that it seems to be working that well at this point, anyways. Depending on how you look at it, of course.
I think a lot of the money involved was imaginary anyways, which is why 50 billion such be approached carefully. If 100 million dollars was invested 10 years ago with a 10% return and never taken out, how much money beyond 100 million was actually lost? And how much beyond that 100 million ever existed, regardless of the clearly lying account statements that the owner of the 100 million believed in.
rent_to_own says"Recognizing all the complexity and layering involved, I still think the sons were pretty much straight arrows appalled to discover that their father was Darth Lucas (ooops - wrong myth system)."
Or... there are 2 sons and it's every man for himself. In other words, it could be the Prisoner's Dilemma and both sides folded.
rent_to_own - I don't see much difference between Madoff's accounts and all the CDO, CDS, MBS paper being exchanged for Tbills.
IT- great point... 'ceptin madoff wasnt appointed or elected
Pride goeth before a fall under the train. What a horrible way to die.
We get the Fed minutes today. Must have been a few slack jaws at that meeting given the unanimous decision to go ZIRP & declare future war on 10 yr yields.
Hit the Bid writes:
So is it time to puke up my Emerging Mkts shorts, or is their absurd optimism going to fade as more economic realities set in?
EEV can easily double from current levels in a few months (or less). Depends on exactly how long the "next leg down" takes.
I still contend owning EEV in the mid-$40s will be a good trade with minimum drawdown (btw, still long, I didn't take my stop of a few cents below yesteray's low).
What's holding EEM up at the moment is the oil equities (from anywhere), and they're in the process of turning. Look at XOM - very clear failure in progress.
What a horrible way to die
Oh, yes, it's soooo much better to die of malnutrition and exposure from eating cat food and living in cardboard boxes.
.
Where will the Consumers go?
My best guess is Goodwill and the Salvation Army, some may still go to Wal-Mart, Big Lots and Family Dollar, but those will be the "luxury retailers" of the future. WMT = SKS
Among other things, the legislation is likely to include specific instructions to assist homeowners facing foreclosure; more specific mandates on executive compensation for firms that receive government TARP funding, and at least tougher disclosure requirements on how TARP money is used by firms--particularly whether or not it is being used for new lending, as many lawmakers demand--the sources said.
I think we're all outraged that Merrill Lynch gets billions of dollars and then one of their executives goes out, after being with them three weeks, and buys a $27 million apartment on Park Avenue, House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer, (D-MD), told FOX News Sunday. We need to make sure that we have appropriate constraints in any money that is authorized under the second tranche of the TARP.
Sources said Rep. Barney Frank, (D-MA), the committee chairman, could introduce new TARP legislation as early as Friday, though Frank on Monday postponed a hearing on priorities for the next administration (on) use of TARP funds that was scheduled for this week.
While Democrats and President-elect Obama appear to be on the same page with limits on executive compensation and additional assistance for struggling homeowners, among other economic issues, there are pages -- and there are pages, one House staff member said.
Its that proverbial the devil is in the details', said Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, a Washington research firm. The Democratic leadership and the Obama incoming administration agree in general principal on issues like foreclosure avoidance. But how to do that there are many different approaches to that. And by dropping legislation if not necessarily moving to pass it, but by introducing it its a formal heads up to the Obama Administration on what Congress would like, and indeed how (Congress) might move forward if the president-elect takes a different course on the next phase of TARP.
Many House Republicans, as well as members of both parties in the Senate, also favor tougher conditions in the next TARP phase. Since Congress approved the TARP legislation in October, members have expressed increasing frustration with the Bush Administrations management of the TARP and enforcement of key provisions.
People are angry on both sides, Petrou said. Its going to be one of those (things) in a partisan year where Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing that they dont like what the TARP has been used for.
Among possible areas of conflict between Congressional Democrats and the president-elect, Frank has supported funding a proposal by the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair, to use government loan guarantees authorized in the TARP to encourage banks, investment funds and other holders of residential mortgages to restructure subprime and other non-traditional mortgages for homeowners facing foreclosure. The FDIC plan would -- for a period -- reimburse them up to 50% of the losses on a restructured mortgage if, after the holder makes it more affordable by lowering the interest rate, reducing the principal or adopting other better terms, the homeowner still defaults. The FDIC says the plan could help up to 1.5 million homeowners avoid foreclosure, but could cost the government more than $24 billion.
In his new TARP legislation, sources expect Frank to include possible directions to the Treasury to support the FDICs proposal -- or a version of it -- in the next phase of TARP. But while Mr. Obama favors additional government measures to help troubled homeowners, he has not specifically endorsed the FDIC plan.
One of the things Congress has been the most upset (about), particularly the Democrats have been the most upset about, is that while the law dictated action to prevent foreclosures, Treasury has done nothing regarding it, Petrou said. Its addressed foreclosures to some degree in other programs outside of the TARP, but it hasnt acted on the express authority in the law, the express mandate in the law, relating to mortgage foreclosures.
Also still long DUG (2x short oil stocks). The following have high volume hourly lows still untested from yesterday: CVX, COP, SLB, OXY, you get the picture. XOM is the worst. Not sure whether USO (crude) has turned, depends on the close.
It's actually an incredibly assholish way to go, if it's a passenger train.*
I've heard horror stories from train and bus drivers about suicides. How'd you like to be driving that thing when a guy ends it all on your windshield?
Also if it is a passenger train your final act is to inconvenience a bunch of complete strangers. Not infrequently a person will dive under a subway and ruin many peoples day.
Lastly, I knew a guy with mental troubles that jumped in front of a NJ Transit train. I really do feel for people who feel they have nothing to live for, but for christs sake what an incredibly thoughtless and selfish way to go.
What a horrible way to die
Oh, yes, it's soooo much better to die of malnutrition and exposure from eating cat food and living in cardboard boxes. - Broward Horne
More likely it is the prospect of dying of Hep C because the prison doctors don't do liver transplants on 60 yo HIV positive inmates.
The 30 day CP spread boinged up 70+ bps to 265 bps...was it FE who called that yesterday (expected 300ish by end of week IIRC)?
Well, predicting it would pop back after that huge drop was a pretty short limb to go out on.
My guesstimate of 300 basis points actually does have some basis for it. AA nonfinancial paper was going at about 200 bp before the Fed intervened in that market and drove the rate almost to zero. If AA had been at 200 bp then the spread towards the end of last year would have been 300 and change. Figure there's some premium for end of year liquidity driving up the rate for the more questionable A2/P2 and you get an estimate for the true market rate of about 300 bp.
Theoretically when the Fed intervened in the AA market the A2/P2 market should have been arbitraged down to the market spread and we should have been able to read off the spread. But the bond market clearly can't do arbitrage right now, as shown by inverted swap spreads and TIP spreads. So it didn't happen and I had to guesstimate.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"EEV can easily double from current levels in a few months (or less)...
I still contend owning EEV in the mid-$40s will be a good trade with minimum drawdown"
2XS are slippery devils. They're great if you can catch the ride, but questionable to hold. But if EEV gets down to mid 40s its an easy call to try one more time. SRS is the one that puzzles me.
And Persecuted was clear that he was buying with tight stops; if he chose not to exercise that's his call, but others were warned.
Battman, Wolfman, Madman. They're all there. US financial system being front run by GS gov't hedge fund. If you're still in this market, you're cannon fodder to their whims.
Video - CNBC.com
I'd be more than willing to be the billionaires' Dr. Kevorkian. No need for them to make a spectacle.
Fair Economist,
Similar thoughts:
Accrued Interest: TALF: Quicker, easier, more seductive
Re: ""A real estate-focused stimulus plan is urgently needed," Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist, said in a statement."
I agree with Yun 1000% and hope that Obama tries to re-pump The Ownership Society so that more people can have over-valued vacation homes to flip for greater profits!!! Go Obama, go Yun!
A Bubble never pops twice in the same place.
Most deaths are nasty. Rapid death from an accident is pretty mild as deaths go. I'd take it over the terminal illnesses and deaths of any of my family members. I agree death by train is a mean way to die because of the effects on the engineer and passengers.
The German dude was an idiot to die for money, but if his greed was so great that having a few million wasn't enough, then obviously he was very weak and had been consumed to a point of being evil.
And let's be real cynical - no profits means no problems with the IRS, right? After all, in terms of the IRS, Madoff was pretty close to golden - no gains, no taxes, no hassles.
rent_to_own | 01.06.09 - 11:38 am |
I'm sure most of his income came from fees he charged. I'm not sure he held any shares in his scam. If he did, he will probably be refiling his tax returns and getting refunds (which will be seized).
I'd prefer death by Swedish Massage. Why don't billionaires go out in luxury....like buy a jet plane and smash it into the side of a mountain, or something, or ski off a cliff in your flying suit without a parachute, or try to find and kill Osamma in the mountains of Pakistan?
Doesn't Madoff look well rested and jovial when strolling out of his nice home to go chat with his lawyers? His investors are killing themselves or broke, we're all fuming and he looks like he hasn't a care in the world. Maybe he doesn't. What does he know that we don't? Why isn't he in custody? What relationships does he have with politicians?
It was funny to hear he was stashing jewelry with all his innocent family members who had no idea what was happening. Wall St's business practices are brought to the street level.
The suicide is tragic, but for a different reason than anyone has posted here yet.
In my opinion, the worst part is this 'man' felt he had nothing to live for because all of his toys and power were going to be taken away.
What a sad world we would live in if everyone thought this way (unfortunately we have been trending this way for a long time).
I could lose all my wealth and possessions tomorrow and I would still have a burning desire to live.
Life is what is inside you, not how many artificial gadgets you own.
We shouldn't morn for this man; instead strive not to be like him
...this 'man' felt he had nothing to live for because all of his toys and power were going to be taken away...
Beatles: A DAY IN THE LIFE
YouTube - A Day in the Life
Gary Watts will be giving his forecast on Lansners blog today. Always good for a laugh.
I think it is funny that he is SELLING his 2006 forecast still on his site but has taken down his 2007 forecast from public view.
just as last night, an 18-yo gal hanged herself - 3-days ago she was arrested for "warrants" - she had nothing in her life worth living for? How sad....
Dirk, enjoy your shining moment as a moral scold. Just hope no one on the panel knows why middle-income households don't save 10% anymore. Your advice on food and clothing would look pretty silly.
In my opinion, the worst part is this 'man' felt he had nothing to live for because all of his toys and power were going to be taken away.
Are we sure this is why he ended his life? Maybe he couldn't handle not winning. These people have huge, yet fragile egos. His id Bubble may have popped.
Dunno if it's intentional humor, or a server error, but....
HousingWire's RSS feed has an entry for "Treasury Reports Details on TARP Expenditures", but when you try and click on the story, it comes up with a 404 Error: Web page not found.
Sounds about right for transparency!
Black Star, is it illegal to have stock warrants now?
Madoff looks like he hasn't a care in the world
Dude, he's seventy and he's screwed. Yeah, I'd say he hasn't a care in the world now.
I'm surprised he isn't laughing.
.
...stock warrants? She was arrested on unknown criminal warrants and two days later hanged herself...
Maybe the reason he killed himself is he didn't want to spend the rest of his life dealing with all the insurmountable problems he had created. It's fun being a billionaire, no fun trying to keep things going that are falling apart like the U.S. economy.
if I were that German dude I would have took out a quick $10 million dollar loan credit, get on over to Amsterdam, get stoned and laid for 2 weeks straight, then overdose on Viagra while doing ten pornstar prostitutes at once. I think that would be an awesome fitting, proper end to a greedy and sinful lifestyle. YES!!!!!
The German dude lost his love of sausages. It happens, and when it does, it's vicious.
What effect will bankruptcy cramdowns have on mortgage rates? Probably raise them, possibly significantly. Lenders will have to add that possibility to their models. Speaking of models, last spring I took a real estate finance course from a professor who built some of the basic models used for MBS pricing. He said that generally the models banks were using prior to the meltdown did not even account for foreclosures because the historical losses from foreclosures were statistically insignificant.
om Servo writes:
The recovery is just around the corner:
U.S. Nov. factory orders fall 4.6% vs. -2.2% expected
U.S. Nov. factory shipments fall record 5.3%
Tom Servo | 01.06.09 - 10:22 am | #
Tom- you are missing the point the greater they fall the quicker we get to zero and the bottom therefore the recovery is right around the corner. What part of Wall Street logic don't you get??
Black Star, is it illegal to have stock warrants now?
Morocco Bama | 01.06.09 - 12:23 pm | #
Not yet Morocco, not yet. Ask Warren Buffett if he wishes his $125 Goldman (GS:$90.72) warrants were invalidated. Like all leverage schemes they exist to enrich the rich.
That 78% is over 8 billion cubic feet of gas a day (35.3 cubic feet per cubic meter)...
Russian gas disruption spreads across Europe
1 hr 57 mins ago
MOSCOW (Reuters) Russia sharply cut gas flows to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday in a dramatic worsening of a pricing dispute with Kiev that threatened to disrupt supplies as far west as Italy and Germany.
Russian export monopoly Gazprom said it had supplied around 65 million cubic meters (mcm) to Europe on Tuesday through ex-Soviet neighbor Ukraine, a fall of 78 percent from the 300 mcm it had been shipping since the dispute erupted on January 1.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
What effect will bankruptcy cramdowns have on mortgage rates? Probably raise them, possibly significantly
Why don't you write a really, really long think piece on that topic? No research, just your thoughts.
Ask Warren Buffett
I would, but dead men tell no tales.
Nonetheless, it is just another evidence point that the sons do seem to be playing fully within the rule of law that the father, if not the mother too, seem to have flouted for decades. In other words, they are as disgusted with a fraudulent crook as any other normal citizen, family obligation notwithstanding.
rent_to_own | 01.06.09 - 10:32 am | #
Alternatively, they are a chip of the old block and this all a very contrived action to demonstrate how honest they are, how much they are cooperating with the Government and therefore were not and should not be charged for any wrong doing by their Dad. Who the hell mails $25 cuff links (do you really think he owned any $25 cuff links- his mittens costing $200 (inexpensive according to the lawyer) seems to be more in line.
In my hometown, a local car salesman recently hung himself.
Why should I not put all my IRA/Cash in short term securities/funds or in the mattress/can in the back yard????
We don't know why anyone does anything, probably, many times, even ourselves. One of the wisest things anyone ever said was: Judge not. Still, the pictures coming out of Gaza of the children who were in that bombed school do provoke one to outrage.
Jonathan Swift:
'Gulliver's second voyage takes him to Brobdingnag. "I cannot but conclude that the bulk of your natives to be the most pernicious race of little odious vermin that nature ever suffered to crawl upon the surface of the earth."'
Also:
'"They look upon fraud as a greater crime than theft, and therefore seldom fail to punish it with death; for they alledge, that care and vigilan[c]e, with a very common understanding, may preserve a man's goods from thieves; but honesty hat no fence against superior cunning: and since it is necessary that there should be a perpetual intercourse of buying and selling, and dealing upon credit; where fraud is permitted or connived at, or hath no Law to punish it, the honest dealer is always undone and the knave gets the advantage." (from Gulliver's Travels: 'A Voyage to Lilliput')'
The German dude lost his love of sausages. It happens, and when it does, it's vicious
MB, Let's keep sexual preferences out of this one.
.
Black Star Ranch writes:
just as last night, an 18-yo gal hanged herself - 3-days ago she was arrested for "warrants" - she had nothing in her life worth living for? How sad....
Black Star Ranch | 01.06.09 - 12:19 pm | #
and we wonder why and condemn somebody would strap a suicide vest to right what they perceive to be historic wrongs but mourn a teenager who commits suicide because they got stood up for the prom.
a local car salesman recently hung himself.
I bet he's popular with the gals now.
Excuse me but aren't there one or two regular posters here that have been bashing the US for a long time while and holding up Germany as a better example?
On second thought, maybe they have a point. A few paper billionare implosions might be a cathartic event that satisfies the proles hunger for rough justice.
Wdenesday is a holiday in Russia and the Ukraine, so it will be Thursday that talks resume - and when action will be taken...?
Natural gas shortages slam some European nations
By MARIA DANILOVA, Associated Press Writer Maria Danilova, Associated Press Writer 2 hrs 17 mins ago
KIEV, Ukraine A natural gas crisis loomed over Europe on Tuesday, as a contract dispute between Russia and Ukraine shut off Russian gas supplies to six countries and reduced gas deliveries to several others.
At least two Bulgarian cities were totally without gas, and nations like Turkey were turning to Iran to bolster their supplies.
[snip]
Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments. Croatia said it was temporarily reducing supplies to industrial customers and urged consumers to use gas sparingly in their homes. Bulgaria said it had enough gas for only "for a few days."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Re: Merckle, this is hard for me to understand. He had as much left as anybody. The rain has fallen on the just and the unjust. (though in that context, rain is good.) In short, there are 1000 rationalizations for failure, 500 of them reasonable. What kind of a message is he sending to all the truly desperate people out there?
Rob Dawg writes:
"A few paper billionare implosions might be a cathartic event that satisfies the proles hunger for rough justice."
The debtor class demands ritual sacrifice of the "rich" to slake their class envy.
RE Suicide: "At least these people still have some shame. "
The ones without shame are the ones investigating, regulating, and bailouting.
Re: I bet he's popular with the gals now.
The Beatles-Baby you can drive my car
YouTube -
Vertical integration of the global economy. We are bank, we are manufacturer with gov't backstop. How is US different than China? They have freer markets?
Video - CNBC.com
Steven L. Good, chairman and CEO of Sheldon Good & Co. Auctions International LLC, was found dead in his car in unincorporated Kane County in an apparent suicide, according to Kane County Sheriff's office reports.
Good was an attorney and had assumed significant leadership positions in national and local real estate trade associations,
Just climbing that wall-o-worry.....
today's youth is self-destructing whether it be a troubled gal in Nevada or a teenage suicide bomber in Israel....
"We are beginning to see a rise in petty crime"
Increased petty crime is a side effect of deflation.
More Swift:
"I can discover no political evil in suffering bullies, sharpers, and rakes, to rid the world of each other by a method of their own; where the law hath not been able to find an expedient."
* A Treatise on Good Manners and Good Breeding
His epitaph:
Ubi saeva indignatio ulterius cor lacerare nequit
Translation: Where savage indignation can lacerate his heart no more."
Epitaph. Inscribed on Swift's grave, St. Patrick's, Dublin.
Vertical integration of the global economy. We are bank, we are manufacturer with gov't backstop. How is US different than China? They have freer markets?
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke | 01.06.09 - 12:42 pm | #
The difference? The Chinese reward failure with a lead bullet instead of a golden parachute.
So what made this real estate guy break?
Welcome to Sheldon Good - No pages could be found matching your request.
More CRE news:
Chicago real estate executive kills himself.
today's youth is self-destructing
Too many distractions and too much fragmentation and very little focus to do good things IMHO!
I got a 1990 Acura legend to sell and its F****** golden... I'm not going to give it up for F****** nothing.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/12/1st-Acura-Legend.jpg
3k takes it...
"Dirk van Dijk writes:
OT: I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate. "
Can I see that online somewhere?
"Too many distractions and too much fragmentation...."
...you're right! It sounds awfully simplistic, but band, baseball, and chores kept the last two boys pretty centered and focused. But then I've been lucky with most of mine....
"rent_to_own writes:
Death by train - a pretty common form of German suicide, actually."
Is death by train truly more efficient than death by car?
Rob Dawg?
OT: I will be on CNBC today at 4:15 NY, 3:15 Chicago time talking about the U.S. Savings rate.
nuf said
Is death by train truly more efficient than death by car?
Rob Dawg?
Not One Cent | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 12:53 pm | #
Good one. No, to really make a mess of efficient transportation a train has to be involved somehow.
"Or... there are 2 sons and it's every man for himself. In other words, it could be the Prisoner's Dilemma and both sides folded.
BondsOfSteel | 01.06.09 - 11:44 am | # "
I am waiting to hear that Madoff actually has no sons--it was all an accounting trick.
"Dirk van Dijk writes:
Where will the Consumers go?
My best guess is Goodwill and the Salvation Army, "
It will be like Secret Santa to see if you get back the shirt you gave away years before.
Is death by train truly more efficient than death by car?
This is like asking how much a dollar is worth
$700 Billion TARP funds sent to fractionalized banking system, levered up a minimum 10:1. Presto! 7 trillion for asset purchases. Stabilization and Stimulation.
"We need to trasfer substantial private assets to the public sphere".
Dovetails nicely with Buiter's work, don't you think?
Video - CNBC.com
Looks as if there may be big trouble between Moscow and Kiev.
A look back at 2007 housing predictions
The Mess That Greenspan Made: A look back at 2007 housing predictions
Hmmmm
Starting in May 2006, the CME set up futures contracts for 10 metropolitan real estate markets, allowing investors to bet whether prices would go up or down and by how much.
By the end of 2006 those futures were pointing to real estate price declines between 5 percent and 7 percent in those markets, Shiller said. That ended up in line with the 6.7 percent annual decline in the October reading of S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which was the largest drop recorded in that 20-year-old price measure.
Hmmm
Real Estate Products Homepage
I'll agree the suicides are a forward indicator. One request, let's not let it dominate all the CR threads today. (I normally just lurk these days and read...)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
hmmmm
http://www.macromarkets.com/csi_housing/documents/tickers.pdf
thanks Neil..
Having a family member die in this fashion I find the banter here about it stupid and just plain old ignorant...
Is death by train truly more efficient than death by car?
Rob Dawg?
Not One Cent | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 12:53 pm | #
OK that is funny!
How timely , I am in the process of taking an online a continuing ed course for renewing my RE license ( I have to have a license for property that I manage . And no I am not a NAR / "Realtor" .
hmmmm
http://housingrdc.cme.com/
Looks as if there may be big trouble between Moscow and Kiev.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.06.09 - 1:04 pm | #
Yep, it really is different this time... Ukraine can't afford to pay and Russia can't afford to float them at below market rates...
"Yep, it really is different this time... Ukraine can't afford to pay and Russia can't afford to float them at below market rates...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 1:19 pm | # "
Ukraine can afford to pay in naval ports (Sevastopol).
Time to put on a sweater in Central and Eastern Europe.
10 Predictions for 2009 -- Seeking Alpha
Next year, housing prices will fall another 10 percent nationally, based on the year-over-year change to the 20-city S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for October 2009 (this report gets released at the end of December and showed an 18 percent decline last week.) It seems that home price declines have to ease up. For example, based on their current trajectory, by the end of next year the median home price in Los Angeles would be below $200,000, down from a high of $550,000 in 2007.
citizen ee,
Agreed...and Central/Eastern Euro customers can't afford to pay increased rates that would cover Ukraine and Russia. My guess is that this energy dispute might be the driver of significantly increased civil unrest in Europe.
"Ukraine can afford to pay in naval ports (Sevastopol)."
I have a feeling that this situation will not end well.
Anyway, Russia was always an enigma, but at least the people on the highest levels probably understood what was happening. In the case of Ukraine, I'm not so sure.
Also, re increased crime...Seattle police are reporting significant increases in car break ins throughout the city. Seattle Times report says citizens are leaving cars unlocked in hopes that thieves will not smash windows to get whatever they want out of the cars. One incident involved thieves breaking into the trunk(!) to get at purses.
"might be the driver of significantly increased civil unrest in Europe."
I doubt it - no one in those regions have any illusions about relying on their fraternal Russian comrades. As for the Ukrainians - no one has much sympathy for them, either. Comes from their being long term deadbeats reliant on Russian largesse for much of their economic activity. Though many Americans seem to think the Ukraine is somehow European, most Europeans think of them as something else - 'Russian.'
crazyvermonter writes:
Black Star Ranch writes:
"and we wonder why and condemn somebody would strap a suicide vest to right what they perceive to be historic wrongs but mourn a teenager who commits suicide because they got stood up for the prom.
crazyvermonter | 01.06.09 - 12:34 pm | # "
Umm - The person who commits train suicide is killing himself. The person who straps on a bomb is killing other (innocent) people. There's a slight difference between the 2. Duh....
can employers cramdown pensions?!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 10:19 am | #
Don't know if this was covered already but the important point to remember is that pensions CAN be crammed down but only as part of a corporate bankruptcy and even then they are turned over to the quasi-gov't PBGC (Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp)
to administrate. There they will receive benefits but at a lower level than originally promised.
The point about mortgage cramdowns is to give BK judges latitude to decide whether to cramdown or foreclose/sell the assets... the thing is it should NOT be to give the debtor a 'better deal' rather to give the creditors the best possible deal available. Remember this isn't just a foreclosure proceeding it is also a bankruptcy so the debtor walks away wiped out regardless - just not necessarily wiped out AND STILL underwater.
I'd be surprised given the decay in the RRE market if many debtors would push for a cramdown - they probably would be more than happy to just walk away - any attempt by a judge to attach the asset back to the debtor will be temporary [next time they will run instead or just walk].
But what do I know... been in the same house for over 25 years and was never underwater.