Must be because inflation is making the production of basic materials has made it unprofitable to engage in production in commodities that will be increasing in value over time. Not.
The headline should read in bold: "DEFLATION CONFIRMED, FED DISGRACED"
Alcoa sold,(or abandoned), its property in Edgewater, NJ several decades ago. The site was so polluted it was sold for $1.00.
I'm in NYC Ironwork, and I'm hoping we see what we had in 1990-1995, (very little new construction besides cival work, lots of alteration/addition. The mindset back then was: well, we can't borrow 700 million to erect a new crown-jewel headquarters, but we can get 150 Mil for a rehab/upgrade.)
Anyone else notice how expensive it is getting to make tinfoil hats? This should have maintained demand for aluminum. Must be a lot of recycling happening.
I think the gov't should require that streets be made of aluminum to help out poor Alcoa. In the summer, you could fry eggs and other foods on them to save energy costs.
OT: did anybody else see the WSJ article on the success of fluffing up the student loan pot? It seems the only broad-based group that has the pols scared sh*tless is college students and their parents. "Take my house, take my car, take my VISA, but don't you dare let my student come back home.!"
@Rob - I don't know... I particularly liked your bit about not receiving the communique from Central Communitariat.
And anything that makes fun of Barney Fwank automatically gets an extra boost. I have this strange suspicion that when the book gets written, he is going to be the surprising ruination of so much more than ever imagined.
Everyone trying to be Keynesians at once. Sovereign debt issuance will easily crowd out other offerers. Corporate debt spread wider. Default risk gliding higher. Video - CNBC.com
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France, Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary reported substantial drops in supplies from Russia. Some governments and utilities sought to reassure the public, saying well-stocked storage facilities would allow them to weather the storm. Still, the growing fallout from the dispute evoked memories of the 2006 Gazprom-Ukraine gas war -- and starkly reflected once again the continent's energy dependence on Moscow."
Who would you rather depend on for energy? The Russians or the Saudis?
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"Oil sector heading downtown - confirmed last hour of trading. EEM taking a little longer to roll over, but it will."
Who would you rather depend on for energy? The Russians or the Saudis?
citizen Kung Fu Panda
thats why they are building a pipeline in the baltic sea to circumvent the Ukraine...
the "Orange Revolution" was sponsored by the neocons, Putin sure didnt forget.. btw if Oil stays low wait for public unrest in the ME, guess if democracy takews hold there you will envy Europe for not have a ocean between your fossil need..
Yeah, those 16,000 IBM jobs will be almost ALL cut in the USA.
While the 1 million jobs that they promise to create if Obama gives them $30 billion will be in India and China.
Sigh. Say what you want about Barney Frank, but at least he doesn't solicit people in airport restrooms or isn't a pedophile. Like some of his collegues from the other party.
"personally, I'm feeling very much like a rodent during the Juasic period - before anybody could tell who would win."
No rodents then - they came much later, after the Cretaceous boundary event, what Talib might have called a black swan event if he had been a triceratops.
The Jurassic Period -During the early Jurassic then, evolution seems to have polarised: on the one hand there were the ruling land animals, the great dinosaurs, which filled the ecological roles now taken up by medium-sized and large mammals; on the other hand the first mam-mals had appeared, and together with the tritylodont Therapsids they filled the small rodent and insectivore niche.
"PARIS Government officials and Jewish leaders are concerned the conflict in Gaza may spill over into violence in Europe, with attacks reported against Jews and synagogues in France, Sweden and Britain.
Assailants rammed a burning car into the gates of a synagogue in Toulouse, in southwest France, Monday night.
A Jewish congregation in Helsingborg, in southern Sweden, was attacked Monday night by someone who "broke a window and threw in something that was burning," said police spokesman Leif Nilsson. And on Sunday slogans, including "murderers ... You broke the cease-fire," were daubed on Israel's Embassy in Stockholm.
In Denmark, a 27-year-old Dane born in Lebanon to Palestinian parents is alleged to have injured two young Israelis last week in a shooting police suspect could be linked to the Gaza crisis. Belgium ordered police in Antwerp and Brussels to be on increased state of alert" Tuesday after recent pro-Palestinian protests ended in violence and arrests. France has Western Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities and a history of anti-Semitic violence flaring when tensions in the Middle East are high. In 2002, some 2,300 Jews left France for Israel because they felt unsafe. Even in normal times, anti-Semitic incidents are not uncommon."
EEM can still go a little higher because it closed higher. However, EEM's volume benchmark is off by 70% - which is an enormous failure at these highs.
I'd seriously consider looking at DUG, though. The biggest weightings in XLE are rolling over - XOM is the weakest, CVX right behind, COP, SLB, OXY, etc. Big consolidation, unless they break through their Oct. lows, but either way that makes this a likely turn.
Ukraine-Russia. It's quite likely that Putin knows every word that passed between Shaakashvili and Yushchenko during the recent unpleasantness between Russia and Georgia.
Putin swore after Beslan that he would follow the Chechens who committed that atrocity 'even into the s***house.'
I don't think it would be pleasant to have Putin for an enemy.
--
Impotent economies and dopes require more and more and more artificial stimuli. Dopes cant come to terms with their impotence, especially, the born-and-bred kind. At some point in time, the stimuli stop working and dopes are left with no choice but to come to terms with the reality.
Born-and-bred American dopes are politically impotent dopes in denial.
Pavel,
The mammals were to remain small and individually insignificant - comparable to shrews, mice and rats of today - although doubtless very significant ecologically, for the 135 million years of the dinosaurs reign.
ghostfaceinvestah writes:
Market is going to rally on this news!!!
ghostfaceinvestah | 01.06.09 - 6:10 __________________________________
Oh hell yeah. Futures already up. The market will surely rally as unemployment climbs to 20%. Because bad news means the Fed will cut rates! Oh wait....that means the Fed will....do something BIG! Confidence restored.
"Pavel,
The mammals were to remain small and individually insignificant - comparable to shrews, mice and rats of today - although doubtless very significant ecologically, for the 135 million years of the dinosaurs reign."
Yeah, I always feel uncomfortable when I read phrases like 'ruling land animals.' I think it's a human projection. Who decides who the ruler is, or even if there is a ruler, when an ecosystem is exquisitely balanced, and each species plays an important, maybe indispensable role.
Sigh. Say what you want about Barney Frank, but at least he doesn't solicit people in airport restrooms or isn't a pedophile. Like some of his collegues from the other party.
badger boy | 01.06.09 - 6:39 pm | #
I still like that one pastor who encouraged his flock to vote GOP, while he smoked/snorted crystal meth with a gay prostitute on weekdays. Good times.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Who decides who the ruler is, or even if there is a ruler, when an ecosystem is exquisitely balanced, and each species plays an important, maybe indispensable role.
I know I'm pushing trite, but throw in an ice age - financially.
Has anyone here ever stopped to consider that if individuals are becoming unstable, economies are destablizing, and financial systems are unstable, that whole countries and blocks of countries can go wonky?
Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
1929er: Could the emphasis on student loans be due to the same thinking that gave us the G.I. Bill: "If we can put 'em in college, they won't be looking for work.?"
Crude's gonna pull back. Look for DXO to test 2.35, at least. But I benchmark DXO/DTO or anything that's "crude oil" off the USO because USO is the most liquid, longest trading crude ETF. And USO went to a higher high, closed underneath yesterday's high, Friday's high, on about 20-40% lighter volume.
Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company. How could their estimates be so far off the mark? We could have 1MM layoffs in a single month in 2009, forget the whole year.
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France...
Bulgarian co-worker tells me today, Russia always shuts of gas/electric thru-out the winter months. His family's neighborhood no-longer has trees due to needs of heat fuel source. This time their really worried and preparing to move parents to USA. Mother is a school administator and father has a delivery business.
Could the emphasis on student loans be due to the same thinking that gave us the G.I. Bill: "If we can put 'em in college, they won't be looking for work.?"
No. It's more from the other side. They're more concerned about higher education complex.
and "Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company." I should have said "oft quoted". I actually don't know if they are well-respected or not.
So Central and Eastern Europe should just sign over their sovereignty to Russia now and save everyone a lot of brouhaha...much easier that way. Putin would take care of those Palestinian protesters in short order.
They're more concerned about higher education complex. Basel Too | 01.06.09 - 7:08 pm | #
Buch of Profs. finding out tenure might not be what it once was now that the HELOC ATM is closed? I am a big fan of college tuition coming down without having to go into debt for it. If they are going to subsidise ed, GI Bill is the way to go. Particularly for returning Vets.
--
"Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?"
Pavel Chichikov,
No "can" in the cases of America and India. "Are" is the right word.
Democracy is codeword for destruction. Breeding dopes is a necessity to instill faith in democracy. Dopes don't know no history. Dopes operate on blind faith.
you should stop by just blaming
Putin..
i am pretty sure Yushenko has is more than half share on this..
IMO Putin is more thrustworthy then the Bunch running the White House!!!
"Budweiser Bank has applied to the TARP program to offset the costs of a new marketing program. Mr. FizzUpYourNose is quoted as saying "These folks have had enough Koolaid, its time to move on" and ""We would like to do our part to help the amerikan taxpayer - maybe they will feel a little less pain". The share cost of Alcoa jumped 3% on the news of the pending program.
IndyMac goes for only 1.3 billion in cash to a group of investors including: buyout investor J. Christopher Flowers, of J.C. Flowers & Co., LLC ; hedge fund operator John Paulson of Paulson Investment Company, Inc. and the financial funds Stone Point Capital; George Soros' SSP Offshore LLC; Silar MCF-I LLC; and MSD Capital, which manages capital for Michael Dell and family. The buyers are operating as a thrift holding company controlled by IMB Management Holdings and have applied for a federal holding company charter and plan to turn IndyMac from a mutual savings bank to a stock-held institution.
For 1.3 billion in cash, the lucky winners in this bankster 'sweet'stakes get over 100 branches and a $158 billion mortgage-servicing portfolio.
But that's not all.
The Federales will assume the first 20% of losses on Indymac's assets. The Federales will then pony up 80% of the losses for the next 10% of losses, and then 95% of losses on the reminder of the portfolio.
But that's not all.
The assets that the Federales will take the first 20% of the losses against? We can't be told what those assets are until after the deal closes. Hmmmmm... why is that you wonder?
WSJ reports: 'The FDIC's term sheet says it's transferring to the new bank $16 billion of loans, $6.9 billion of securities as well as other assets -- far more than $13.9 billion(the declared 'value' of the deal). This suggests big write-downs will occur at the time of the deal to get the new bank's assets down to $13.9 billion. Such write-downs would help the buyers. Substantial losses would effectively be taken on the assets before the buyers own them.'
When OTS closed IndyMac in July their estimated assets were worth more than $32 billion.
So in summary $32 billion in July becomes $22.9 billion and 'other assets' by January and the lucky winners get the Federales to backstop up to ((.20+.08+(.95*.7=.665)) =94.5 % of total losses.
But wait that's not all.
The lucky winners have to continue a loan-modification program that is being severely criticized by the Street because it is the only one that has been fairly successful.
Per the FDIC:
Mortgages Eligible for Modification 46,500
Total Modification Offers Mailed to date 32,274
Total Completed Modifications (Verified Income) to date 8,512
Total Additional Verbal Acceptances of Offers to date 9,480
And in return for this citizen-friendly narrative? Well, they get to use IndyMac as a Berkshire Hathaway styled acquisition vehicle and perform the full faith and credit insured carry trade for as far as their imagination takes them.
Oh but wait that's not all! As previously stated, there are a bunch of writedowns happening at the time of this deal and it bears repeating such write-downs would help the buyers. Substantial losses would effectively be taken on the assets before the buyers own them.
Here's why it bears repeating:
By JESSE DRUCKER
January 6, 2009
Wall Street Journal
'The main business tax cuts proposed by President-elect Barack Obama are likely to be a windfall for two industries particularly tied to the current economic meltdown: Wall Street investment banks and home builders.
Under the proposal being crafted by the incoming Obama administration and congressional Democrats, companies would be able to use their so-called tax losses to offset taxable U.S. profits earned in the past five years.
Typically, companies can carry back such losses only two years. The Obama proposals likely would mean that companies with enormous losses from last year and this year could use the losses to help wipe out tax obligations from the previous five years and receive sizable tax-refund checks from the Treasury Department.'
It's so very good to be a bankster!
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
That is disturbing. Puts the current media focus on the dispute in a different light. On the other hand, immigrating to the USA is a move that has generally worked out well for a lot of people.
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- biggest aluminum producer, said a production line at its New Zealand smelter is still closed after a transformer failure in November cut capacity by about 30 percent.
Dec. 19 (Southland Times) -- The Tiwai Point smelter is encouraging staff who have accumulated leave to take it during the Christmas period....
ABC: State labor department officials say the problem started Monday and caused the phone banks at the state's toll-free claims center to shut down, followed by the online filing system. Leo Rosales, an agency spokesman, says as many as 10,000 people per hour were trying to log into the system.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"I benchmark DXO/DTO or anything that's "crude oil" off the USO because USO is the most liquid, longest trading crude ETF. And USO went to a higher high, closed underneath yesterday's high, Friday's high, on about 20-40% lighter volume."
OK, I have set my stop on DXO and will revisit EEV and DUG in AM. Many thanks for sharing your analysis. Win, lose or draw you're an honest trader.
Looking at the charts for... just about everything, with the massive drops... I can't believe everyone lost money. is the information published anywhere about investors who are making out like bandits right now, things like EEM, EEV where they dropped very hard and are now rebounding slightly?
just wondering if there are a group that are making money hand over fist at this point.
more on student loans: This episode shows there is at least one demographic that will not be denied; now where do the rest of us sign up to get even (or ahead of) the banksters?
Who would that be? Seriously...are you suggesting...the...USA? My previous comment was flippant, but now I want to know...do you consider the USA the entity to fill this bill or is it some other entity?
I confess to being in a foul mood today. Whenever I see photos in the press of limp children being carried out of buildings in war zones it affects me that way. I don't give a goddamn what the press releases say about the reasons and excuses. War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
Typically, companies can carry back such losses only two years. The Obama proposals likely would mean that companies with enormous losses from last year and this year could use the losses to help wipe out tax obligations from the previous five years and receive sizable tax-refund checks from the Treasury Department.
Unbelievable. Or I should say typical. Wall street will pay back the TARP interest & loans with tax rebate checks. I guess the year end bonuses and dividends aren't enough.
This swindle is even bigger than I thought possible.
Our financial system is a sham! Our politicians are shams too.
I'm probably going to regret this...Jas Jain, there has been a good deal of discussion on the USDs medium on long prospects...Would like your opinion (let me say a reasoned opinion, please)
"Who would that be? Seriously...are you suggesting...the...USA? My previous comment was flippant, but now I want to know...do you consider the USA the entity to fill this bill or is it some other entity?"
Russia will not be moving in a military way, even if it wanted to and were capable of doing so on eastern Europe because of US protection. Non-starter, and I believe, personally, that the protection is strategic.
Commodities generally acting oddly divergent. Oil starts strong, finishes weak. Hell, it's moved 30%.
I have an oilsands that I put on in December. Maybe a virgin for the volcano.
PMs started weak, finished fine. Almost lost my silver position to a stop, felt like a fool hanging in there with it. Gold having trouble with its downtrend line (and its 200) since last June.
No new longs here in the general markets. I see some pretty good looking basic materials and tech charts, but some oscillators showing it as overbought as it has been in a year. This is a time to sell, methinks.
I have spent all week dealing with Sprints Managed Network Division. If they were a gov agency - they would be called FEMA.
As far as unemployment. How many companies, I believe, have made it as difficult as possible to talk to real people. Just like the scam about getting everything electronically. You spend your money and time doing the printing.
can you get Ken Cooper to develop a diatribe filter before you ask Jas? Kind of like a secret code where you filter out every three words and the remaining words make up the message?
"Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
Pavel Chichikov "
Not just countries, whole continents. See Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror, her history of Europe in the 14th Century. Includes the Hundred Year's War, the Black Plague, papal schism, and the Little Ice Age, as well as Viking terrorists.
I have been using the same piece of crap 19" tube TV for over 10 years. i could tolerate it lob=nger but the sound (and my hearing) is crap.
In the market to get a 42" TV. But wondering how long before a 30+ inch OLED TV will be mass market. From what I hear, it is the best picture imaginable, and uses a fraction of the energy. I know the only thing out now is an outrageously expensive 11" unit. Wondering if anybody with geek skillz knows what's coming down the pike.
Earlier today Rich pointed out that commodity ETFs [specifically, food as reflected in DBA] had risen by 25% in the past month and challenged us to draw conclusions.
Don't get me wrong, I think Rich is smarter than I am. However, I'd like to offer an answer.
You are saying that as if it was a bad thing. I believe that every civilization eventually succumbs to hubris and slits its wrists. The west is just the latest member of that club.
The ultimate result of that process is something we like to call evolution.
"Of course they can. The 20th century was the century that Western civilization slit its collective wrists."
Best overall history book I ever read, bar none. Read that tome twice.
Presently slowly re-reading "Guns of August".
She was a good historian and phenomenal writer...
Actually, I think that I'm going to follow up on something I set aside last year...see if there are any financial histories of the US treasury department. Know that we've defaulted in our past (19th century as I recall) and been on verge of bankruptcy before. What's been done and how handled?
I met some people a few decades ago who held interesting positions in the strategic weapons forces. I'm quite certain there was nothing abnormal about them personally, no fangs, polite and rather intelligent. But if the orders were ever to be sent, the orders would be carried out. No question at all.
Read an interesting story about 'Bomber' Harris recently. He was stopped for speeding by a traffic policeman in wartime England, but then the officer saw the special identifying badge on the car that permitted the occupant to drive at any speed.
The policeman said to Harris: But do be careful, sir, you might kill someone.
Harris replied: My dear man, I'm paid to kill people.
Impotent economies and dopes require more and more and more artificial stimuli. Dopes cant come to terms with their impotence, especially, the born-and-bred kind. At some point in time, the stimuli stop working and dopes are left with no choice but to come to terms with the reality.
Born-and-bred American dopes are politically impotent dopes in denial.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 6:47 pm | #
Do you have a contest with yourself every day to see how many different ways you can use the word dope in a paragraph?
I believe you are becoming that which you despise.
I know this sounds cold but "Greenspans bodycount" is up to three with today's addition. The first jumped out of the 29th floor, the second slit his wrists and todays most recent victim jumped in front of a train. German tycoon Adolf Merckle commits suicide
| Reuters
Very sad.
RE "Distant Mirror"-Barbara Tuchman, the author was dismissed by many academics because she lacked a P.H.D.
I guess some people would rather be "qualified" and read by 15 people. Wonderfull book, albeit a bit dense.
My guess- the end of western countries that refuse non-whites decent jobs based on their race.
Think about it, who is going to pay taxes and run stuff to keep the boomers going. The low level of education, feminised thinking and risk aversion in the west has made whites subsequent to the baby boomers too incompetent to run a technological society. Come to think of it, the boomers were the first partly feminized generation..
And then there is the demographic issue.. in case you think I am being racist I also believe that japan and some asian countries will also suffer a similar fate, though they might hang on a bit longer
"nova writes:
I'm still wrapping myself around mp's Mad Max scenario...violence or fuel scarcity, or mix?
Jeebus, All I want is other people to lose their jobs. Not me. The whole Mad Max thing is like taking a step down a dark hallway."
@fried: "Not just countries, whole continents ... Europe in the 14th Century."
I'm feeling snarky tonight, so I have to add that in the case of Europe (West of Russia) even a continent-sized country wouldn't be that large...
And I'll top it off by adding that to the naked eye staring at view of the earth from space, Europe isn't really a continent in any case...
But even continent-sized countries have committed enormous acts of self-destruction, and much more recently than the 14th century. Russia fell apart twice in the 20th century and suffered enormous human losses in the middle (WW2) as well. The U.S. had its Civil War. British India had a bloody separation into India/Pakistan/Bangladesh (okay, that's only a subcontinent).
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years. Seems like, for most people for much of history, things have been very challenging at least a few times in a 50-75 year lifespan.
We should be working harder to protect that which has made life good, and not putting up with as much of that which threatens to ruin it, IMHO...
But unfortunately (as Jas points out for us ad nauseam) too much of an easy time invariably breeds dopes who lose their vigor and vim. It takes at least a cold shower of economic distress to reawaken the sleeping giant.
OT: The new US Senate is the oldest in history, with an average age of 63 Currently Accounting | 01.06.09 - 7:35 pm | #
I would wager that the entire U.S. workforce, is the oldest it has been in history. Not just longeviety, but vaporized retirement funds, and boomers unwilling to pass the reigns on.
I don't see a deflation like the 1930s. I can't find a single deflation under a fiat regime. Japan had a mild CPI deflation, but money and credit increased. A mild deflation in CPI would suit me fine.
That said, Bernanke sure seems determined. I moved a big chunk from from intermediate treasuries to TIPS. I also bought USO & OIL as a hedge for my next five years worth of energy expenses.
But take everything I say with a big grain of salt. I'm not trying to make money from money here. I gave that up back in 1998 when I thought stocks were stupid high. I was way early. Still, I've done better than most - a few percent over inflation after taxes.
This place will always make you feel good about cash or shorts...don't confuse that with reality however.
GiezCubed | 01.06.09 - 7:03 pm | #
After a 6 month, 50% equity/commodity decline, with a new potus, an upcoming trillion$ stimulus, and recession talk all-around, I'm thinking a large, bear market short squeeze is in order, say to the NAZ gap at 1950, up 300, up 20%. Look at it, it's picture perfect. Then bearish as ever, again.
I recall about 1 - 2 months ago you had a very bad night with all of this stuff. I sympathized, been there and done that.
That said, I'm responsible for the family "defense" - spouse plays "offense" - and am now having to be the canary for multiple other families. There are nights that I feel a gnawing in my stomach for what's coming but would rather have a clue for what's coming than get blindsided.
For all of the Alice in Wonderland stuff we've seen in the past 18 months, I try to remember that the tendency amongst this group is to really go long Armageddon.
So tell me.. how can a country like canada pay its obligations (to its own citizens)with a shrinking tax base (retirees + lower income replacements) over the next 5-10 years?
I think you should write an obituary for the 'great white north', because either the great north won't be white or there won't be a great north.
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years. Seems like, for most people for much of history, things have been very challenging at least a few times in a 50-75 year lifespan.
Yes, we, or least I did, lived in a truly golden age. My life as a white male, over 50, American, has been better than what the entire human race experienced in every generation of its existence.
I'm thinking a large, bear market short squeeze is in order, say to the NAZ gap at 1950, up 300, up 20%. Look at it, it's picture perfect. Then bearish as ever, again.
The great fun bear rallies bring to the market is their unpredictability in time..... it's a little early for spring just yet - unless you are a little too hungry.
Can't we just triple the amount of fluoride in the water? I know the Green Party in Britain is against it, but they are named after the color of their teeth.
I think that what you say re incompetent to run a technological society is more akin to Wisdom Seeker's subsequent post.
I don't think that feminized thinking has anything to do with our present problems, apart from the wish to see that all are cared for. This has more to do with getting fat and lazy and permitting the demise of meritocracy. I know plenty of women appalled at what's going on with the TBTF meme.
@peAkcredit - yes, the NAS gap wants to be closed. Same gap shows on SPY at same day.
@Homedad43 - Feel like you're taking words out of my mouth all thread long. Thanks. Also, regarding gas price discussion far above, we're also seeing those surges here in California. Prices were in the $1.60s but are now just under $2.00. Guess the geopolitics is causing the speculators to refill their storage tanks or something...
Just ask the Peakenese why the oil producers just dropped their output like China and Alcoa did with Aluminum.
Rob Dawg
EE, add ventura county to the list of; where to send peak oil missionaries.
sans actual accounting and monetary inputs, what is it that you thinks stops mankind from paving the planet and equiping every 16year old and up a 5liter v8 hunk of metal?
Have you ever considered that the system has evolved and what was once easy is no longer easy and what was once impossible is now routine.
Emergent systems can evolve beyond their creators wildest dreams. Civilization is an emergent system and we do not know where it will lead. After achieving a certain level of emergence, systems can often influence their components beyond what you would believe to be possible. Maybe the normal has changed beyond what you would expect based on history.
Eastern Europe: I knew some Estonians in Moscow just before the fall of the Union. It is almost impossible to express the intensity of their fear of and loathing for the Russians. And not a little contempt. If you want to understand eastern Europe now, you have to take these feelings into account. They will do just about anything to avoid falling into that situation again. The cutting off of the gas will seem threatening to them in a way few of us here can imagine. They're members of NATO for a reason.
I don't know. I have a kid in that age range. The best I can say is that life can be an education. Actually I think they will do better than people my age. My generation is going to get its collective ass handed to them.
but, Condi said just a few months ago that Russia isn't relevant any more......
citizen Kung Fu Panda wrote:
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France, Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary reported substantial drops in supplies from Russia. Some governments and ...... dependence on Moscow."
I'm thinking about putting a bunch of letters in a hat and having my kid stick them to a wall. Then I'll throw darts at it blindfolded to get ticker symbols. Flip a coin to go long or short.
I confess to being in a foul mood today. Whenever I see photos in the press of limp children being carried out of buildings in war zones it affects me that way. I don't give a goddamn what the press releases say about the reasons and excuses. War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.06.09 - 7:22 pm | #
This is a twist upon a similar remark related by Karlheinz Bohm, the German film and theatre actor, about what the great New German Cinema director, Fassbinder, said when asked about his political philosophy:
When I see bullshit, I just start firing in all directions
He had no patience for this sort of thing, either.
I hope so. I just don't see it happening without a rebirth of the human mind, spirit, and imagination. Sometimes I think I can see faint outlines.
Then I think of all my kinsman in Southern Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia with their born again, gun toting, drug and booze fueled resentments watching what was supposedly their birthright disapear.
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years.
Yes, things were so much simpler with billions of Asians living in mud huts and Europe begging for our technology and muscle in the aftermath of WWII.
Prometheus or Pandora, it's just a matter of perspective.
EE, add ventura county to the list of; where to send peak oil missionaries. - Crispy Bait
Ye are best advised to study both the history and geography of American oil before intoning thus. Every summer I have to be careful driving my motorcycle between Ojai and Santa Paula in case crude oil has seeped out of the rocks onto the road. 6 generations of Peakenese have proselytized and died of old age here.
Since the dawn of the petroleum industry in the mid-19th century, concern has been expressed about the imminent exhaustion of the world's petroleum supplies. From today's perspective, such concerns were certainly premature, and even ludicrous:
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature's laboratory!"
--advertisement for "Kier's Rock Oil," 1855
". . . the United States [has] enough petroleum to keep its kerosene lamps burning for only four years . . . "
--Pennsylvania State Geologist Wrigley, 1874
". . . although an estimated two-thirds of our reserve is still in the ground, . . . the peak of [U.S.] production will soon be passed--possibly within three years."
--David White, Chief Geologist, USGS, 1919
" . . . it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of petroleum will be found in the future merely because it has been in the past."
--L. Snider and B. Brooks, AAPG Bulletin, 1936
I think that feminized thinking is about valuing risk aversion, micro-manangement, subjectivity over calculated risk taking, letting accidental discoveries occur and objectivity.
Tell me something.. if we had the post 1980 cultural mindset, would we ever have airplanes, agricultural chemicals, any large chemical industry, drugs, satellites or even cars?
Have beer declared to be a member of a food group. If we do the same for beer as Nancy Reagan did for ketchup (ketchup=vegetable)then ketchup could be a whole grain. School lunch programs across the nation could start serving up nutritious cans of beer daily. As an added bonus,the kiddies would no longer care if they were I-podless, homeless, etc.
Bearly, I was having a smallish cornish hen for dinner when I read your truly classic marinated gerbil comment. It was too close for comfort. I stared at it thinking this is small and almost rodent like for a bird--where's it been ? Total threw me off my fud.
We built robots with K'nex, watched an episode of "Johnny Test" and are doing math now while listening to Bowie "Young Americans" on iTunes while I've been blogging. What's this later stuff?
December was relatively chaotic in price, with more discounts than retailers planned, especially in department stores, Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California, said in a telephone interview. Consumers have discovered that the industry is responding with lower and lower and lower prices.
Re: Barbara Tuchman - it's notable that the "Golden Age of the Peasantry" came AFTER the disasters of the 14th century. Something about shaking the established orders up!
OT Anybody watching Japanese stocks tonight? Several exporters--Canon (+9.4%), Nikon (+16%), Olympus (+7.8%), Honda (+9%)-- are climbing steeply on above average volume. For these stocks, it's the first time I've seen higher prices and higher volume in some time. The yen is weakening, but there is no other big news that I can find. Maybe some investors are returning to Japanese stocks after last year's horrible performance. Perhaps Japanese insurers are selling US Treasurys and buying domestic stocks?
Rob Dawg... in response to your comments previous thread
i wrote:
if we incur debt to make domestic capital investment, then WE CAN spend (invest) our way out of this crisis.
mock turtle
Rob Dawg replied:
No we cannot. You incorrectly assume that more debt will have less drag on the economy than will be created by infrastructure investment. For but one example were we to invest in a national train network there would not only be no return on investment but operating subsidies would add even to the initial capital debt.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 4:18 pm | #
mt replies
we disagree
ultimately capital investment will increase and with it productivity and GDP
much of this will be the result of debt, and or,investors will fore-go present consumption and disburse saving in the hope of realizing profit in the future
i appreciate that the obama admin and congress may make good... or bad investments
i realize that as the gov goes ahead with tax rebates to busineses and individuals those receiving the rebates may not invest in future productivity gains
but unless you believe that the country will experience an un- avoidabe and total economic collapse
then i continue to believe that, investment, from savings, and from debt, will hopefully increase productivity, and is the only way out of this crisis
we got here not because of debt, in my opinion, but because of the mis allocation of capital into non productive endeavors
I think that feminized thinking is about valuing risk aversion, micro-manangement, subjectivity over calculated risk taking, letting accidental discoveries occur and objectivity.
Sue (Capital S) writes:
"Re: Barbara Tuchman - it's notable that the "Golden Age of the Peasantry" came AFTER the disasters of the 14th century. Something about shaking the established orders up!"
More like decimiation of 30% of the population due to plague and wars, which made labor scarce, more valuable and, consequently, better treated.
Nothing wrong with that and you make a cogent case.
ultimately capital investment will increase and with it productivity and GDP
No, this is where you make unwarranted assumptions. That's hopefully the case not ultimately.
much of this will be the result of debt, and or,investors will fore-go present consumption and disburse saving in the hope of realizing profit in the future
Let's do a reducto absurdum. What if that debt were at 40% interest? Okay, now you say that won't generate a return on investmentin infrastructure. 20%? 2%? Who can say but now you understand the exists a limit beyond which there is no future profit.
... we got here not because of debt, in my opinion, but because of the mis allocation of capital into non productive endeavors mock turtle | 01.06.09 - 8:30 pm | #
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Sure.. 200-300 $ an hour, your choice of looks, well reviewed and Multiple Shots On the Goal (MSOG).. say 2-3 times. Heck of a lot cheaper than a crappy sexless marriage, bitchy fat wife, screaming kids, threat of divorce, alimony, child support, pleasing wife etc.
Wow, I bet you get all the girls.
Bond Girl | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:32 pm | #
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Here's a good one - The Iraq War will pay for itself via oil revenues.
It's really hard for me to believe that any government program will "boost" the economy. Short term, it may see like a boost. In a few years, the majority will be worse off.
DALLAS The U.S. arm of chemical giant LyondellBasell Industries has filed for bankruptcy as the recession continues to weaken demand for its products, which are used in everything from cars to detergents.
The Houston-based company said Tuesday that it had arranged for up to $8 billion in financing to keep operating while it reorganizes.
Lyondell Chemical Co. and related affiliates listed assets of $27.1 billion and liabilities of $19.3 billion. It identified 79 affiliates that will file for bankruptcy protection, including one of LyondellBasell's European holding companies.
The company identified its largest unsecured creditor as the Bank of New York, which is trustee for $615 million in notes and another $241.4 million in notes at an affiliate.
So 1,200/month can get you about 5-6 new gals, young, hot, no strings, no BS, your time..
1200 * 12 = 24,000/ year and say about 40 different women (some repeats).
In 10 years, I have had over 400 hot women, and it cost me less than an average upper middle class divorce with an aging bitchy woman who has "grown apart" and "fallen out of love", not to mention the last 3-4 years of an almost sexless marriage.
Escorts are the logical and economic choice, marriage is for suckers who believe that women and society won't screw the over.
Wow, I bet you get all the girls.
Bond Girl | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:32 pm | #
"Let's do a reducto absurdum. What if that debt were at 40% interest? Okay, now you say that won't generate a return on investment in infrastructure. 20%? 2%? Who can say but now you understand their exists a limit beyond which there is no future profit.."
Rob Dawg
you make a valid point
and i dont pretend that rescue by this or any other administration via debt, investment is anything near a sure thing
i agree that high interest rates will doom us...dont even want to think about what happens if the japanese and chinese decide to rapidly vacate their position in us gov debt (nightmare)
and its not clear if the banks will lend under any scenario i can envision...institution and individuals hoarding cash cause of fear
thats why i advocate, not an end to the federal reserve (although i woudnt cry if ben and company went away) but rather the institution of a Bank of the USA to loan direct at rates leaving a windnow of opportunity
yes yes yes, i realize my proposal toasts the USD...the dollars is headed for toast no matter what
btw as an investment i m not a big fan of "infrastructure"..ok ok build some bridges, dams and highways it may well help
but my number one recommendation is a 21st century appolo energy project...cleaner coal, hydro, solar, wind, tide, nuke...throw the kitchen sink at it and stop exporting a quarter to a half trillion dollars a year to foreigners who sell us energy
Saver [It's really hard for me to believe that any government program will "boost" the economy]
I don't, if we had a government unfettered by special interests we could direct a crapload of capital at developing clean power generation. Game changing - not wind or solar. Maybe fusion. Something that makes a quantum leap.
Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company. How could their estimates be so far off the mark? We could have 1MM layoffs in a single month in 2009, forget the whole year.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.06.09 - 7:04 pm |
"He says there could be a major shift toward telecommuting as employers look to cut costs without turning to layoffs."
Don't know if this suggestion has any traction, but if the eventual recovery includes depending on telecommuting at any significant level, that means less office space will be needed.
A long time seems distant to me
Seeing you for a little while
Gave me something to believe
Kissing your lips
Is burned into my memory
Your voice instilling hope
Angels must sound like you
Finally holding you close
Somehow I always knew
That day would come
Because dreams do come true
Destiny must feel like a cloud
That wonders around in the sky
Circling the earth
Never asking why
Knowing that another cloud
Almost exactly the same
Floats around
And they collide
The day we met
Ill never forget
Fate was our hand
And god played it
Now I feel complete
Because we didnt forget
That nothing can stand between
Hope and destiny
Somehow in the little time together
My soul seems richer
My vision more clear
My life that much more better
Your beauty everlasting
A smile like the sun
I walked in your garden
And nourished my spirit
"Nichola Fletcher, a food writer and co-owner of a venison farm, held a squirrel tasting for Britains Guild of Food Writers, finding their lovely flavor tasted of the nuts they nibbled. At a later event, however, she found the flavor disappointing, with a greasy texture and unpleasant taste, presumably reflecting these squirrels diet."
It's unrealistic to expect some taxpayers to make timely payments in this economy, Shulman said. However, he cautioned that those seeking help will have to demonstrate their inability to pay. Those who fail to file tax returns, or who simply ignore collection notices, will not be eligible for help, he said
Curious writes:
OT
Anybody watching Japanese stocks tonight? Several exporters--Canon (+9.4%), Nikon (+16%), Olympus (+7.8%), Honda (+9%)-- are climbing steeply on above average volume. For these stocks, it's the first time I've seen higher prices and higher volume in some time.
Totally amazing that equity buyers think they can see across the credit-collapse valley. My bear market vision focused last week on NAZ 1950, SPY 110 and DJI 10250, up 20%, but I like U$D/JPY leverage from 93 to 100 best.
On the topic of government spending... some might remember a few charts I posted up with the T-bills issued. I'm waiting now for the Dec. update but it would appear that the Treasury will need to roll or pay $1.625T in 2009 that was issued before Dec. 1, 2008.
On the plus side, net issuance had really tapered off in November so hopefully, there won't be a massive surge.
Dirk writes:
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:42 pm | #
What is the ROI on the interstate highway system? The Hoover Dam? The Golden Gate Bridge? Education?
Dirk, my guess would be not that the hwy system wasnt a good investment
but that the gov has wasted far more money in other dubious expenditures
my beef with the gov, and in part this is in harmony with Rob Dawgs aversion to more debt...
is that we currently pay out about half a trillion dollars in interest payments on the us debt
in the old days we paid almost all of that to "ourselves"
today the chinese and japanese own around half of all us debt followed , i guess by saudi ?
mock turtle - it's held by Japanese, Chinese, and a whole assortment of smaller Asian countries. The caribbean bank complex is in there too if I remember correctly.
I used to have a handly link showing public ownership by nation.
Res ipsa loquitur
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:52 pm | #
citizen ee,
I think an important factor driving US oil production is restrictions on drilling in certain areas. Interestingly, per Wikipedia, "The 28 January 1969 blowout from a Unocal rig which spilled 3 million US gallons (11 million liters) of petroleum of the coast of Santa Barbara, California, has been cited as influencing drilling bans for offshore California and Florida." That coincides rather neatly with the peak of the trend line you linked.
...but a simple statement of fact, that the interstate highway system is an engine that has driven 40 years of unprecedented prosperity and positioned the United States to remain the world's pre-eminent power into the 21st century. While it is not typically thought of in this way, the system is in reality a gift from one group of people --- highway users --- to the nation as a whole, which has reaped a gain of at least $6 in benefit for each $1 spent in construction.
Haha, I hope these aren't nominal comparisons... from the inflation calculator:
bh: I think you are finding out the less you give a damn, the more women will line up to take care of you. Funny how expensive that lesson was for me. Funny also how women screech about it, but I have the evidence from my own experience now, so the sound os distant screeching bothers me less and less.
lucifer: it's not that hard to get it free, or have them pay... the resources are out there. Start with amazon. Then find the community and they'll get you locked on.
It's going to be really interesting how what's coming is going to make "dorky dudes," "great guys," and "good men" so much more attractive, after the last 25 years of being treated with contempt by modern, western women. Unfortunately for the worst offenders, they are now in their late 40s and single.
Marriage is a really bad deal for men. The only men I know getting married are younger first timers... but most all the men I know have NO plans to either marry or marry again. Maybe if the economy really tanks, marriage will be a good deal for men once again.
This alone spells demise of the world as we have known it.
I saw her dancin there by the record machine
I knew she must a been about seventeen
The beat was goin strong
Playin my favorite song
An I could tell it wouldnt be long
Till she was with me, yeah me, singin
I love rock n roll
So put another dime in the jukebox, baby
I love rock n roll
So come an take your time an dance with me
That will be $200 an hour and don't tell me about how back in the day you never wore a condom.
Mock,
China needs us as much as we need them. That's all I'm suggesting. On the other hand, they might loose some inscruitability if we start screaming hyper-inflation out of one side of our collective mouth while we are asking them for another loan out of the other. .... if you catch my grift ... errr drift.
i grew up a few blocks from a stretch of the erie canal
never ceased to amaze me as a kid, all the century old opulent ruins along its path and the absence of all that much, away from the great lakes, the hudson and the canals
Per Bloomberg, Japan is up 2% due to Obama's proclamation that we'll have trillion dollar deficits for "years". Good thing we wont have to pay that money back.
Skier Suffers Exposure
Man left dangling upside down, pantsless after Vail lift mishap
JANUARY 6--In a bizarre incident that will surely lead to litigation (or an out-of-court settlement), a skier at Colorado's ritzy Vail resort was left dangling upside down and pantsless from a chairlift last Thursday morning. The January 1 mishap apparently occurred after the male skier, 48, and a child boarded a high-speed lift in Vail's Blue Sky Basin.http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009/0106091vail1.html
Let me address that comment by cKFP more completely, as it is so incredibly wrong that it boggles:
I think an important factor driving US oil production is restrictions on drilling in certain areas. Interestingly, per Wikipedia, "The 28 January 1969 blowout from a Unocal rig which spilled 3 million US gallons (11 million liters) of petroleum of the coast of Santa Barbara, California, has been cited as influencing drilling bans for offshore California and Florida." That coincides rather neatly with the peak of the trend line you linked.
citizen Kung Fu Panda | 01.06.09 - 9:27 pm | #
The factual problem with that malarkey is that the offshore ban was not insituted until 1981.
From a Houston Chronicle story in 2008:
For 27 years, Congress has had moratoriums in place that bar drilling off the east or west coasts and portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Congress has had to act each year to renew the drilling bans. 404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Now it's a math problem...(hint in cast story problems are just not your thing - subtract 27 from 2008)
The total value of the bailouts undertaken by the federal government in 2008 now exceeds the combined cost of every major war the United States has ever engaged in, according to a comparison of war costs calculated by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the value of the bailouts as calculated by Bloomberg News or Bianco Research.
According to CRS, all major U.S. wars (including such events as the American Revolution, the War of 1812, the Civil War, the Spanish American War, World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but not the invasion of Panama or the Kosovo War), cost a total of $7.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars.
According to Bloomberg, the federal government has made commitments worth a total of $8.5 trillion in the bailouts of 2008. That includes actual expenditures as well as loan and asset guarantees.
>JANUARY 6--In a bizarre incident that will surely lead to litigation (or an out-of-court settlement), a skier at Colorado's ritzy Vail resort was left dangling upside down and pantsless from a chairlift last Thursday morning. The January 1 mishap apparently occurred after the male skier, 48, and a child boarded a high-speed lift in Vail's Blue Sky
Any 48-year-old person who would get on a high-speed ski lift with a child and wearing no pants deserves just what he got.
High-speed ski lifts are for normal people. Perverts should take the other ski lifts.
What is the ROI on the California State Government?
Comrade V | 01.06.09 - 9:15 pm | #
Dont live in Cal so dont follow it that closely, always thought it absurd that you folks would elect the Govenator, but who am I to talk, split my time between Ohiio and Chicago, registered in Ohio. Blago and Taft and toss in a Blackwell up until 06. From what I understand like most other states to generous on pensions and just about any defined bene plan is screwed right now, that includes GM, SS (less so), Life Ins companies. Most corp plans (and I think state and local) have assumed rates of return of about 8%. Trailing 10yr returns on S&P near zero, and frankly dont look great going forward, long term govies well below 4%, CRE about to puke big time. How do you make 8% with a 60/40 equity/fixed asset allocation. Oh you go with some "alternative investments" Say pvt equity, well how would you like to be a limited partner of the 3 headed dog right now? So thats a huge part of the Cal problem. then an over active prision system. Toss in usual corruption (less in Cal than Ohio or Il). However, some of it is fairly high ROI, most notably education. However big part of the problem is prop 13, even for CRE, ends up with a super weird distribution of tax burden.
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
"Talk about showing your ass"
Thanks for the clarification, Credit.
I thought maybe it was some sort of unorthodox enema stunt...you know, someone trying to make the Guiness Book of World Records (probably an unemployed Wall Street exec).
Just an observation. If any pension or insurance plan assumed 8% rates of return as far back as the mid-to-late 1990s, then why didn't they buy 8%+ 30 year Treasury bonds? I assume it's because our financial system exists to bilk everyone out of their $$$ via selling them "investments", conventional or not. Just skimming some off the top while the S&P shows a negative return for over a decade.
I thought "Alcoa" was a sore throat lozenge.
We need an Aluminium Czar !
Clearly we need an aluminium bail-out. Somebody call Barney Frank.
Must be because inflation is making the production of basic materials has made it unprofitable to engage in production in commodities that will be increasing in value over time. Not.
The headline should read in bold: "DEFLATION CONFIRMED, FED DISGRACED"
Metals follow oil and automobiles. I guess they don't have a lot of confidence in the massive stimulation package.
Clearly we need an aluminium bail-out. Somebody call Barney Frank.
Rumor has it he is more partial to a "Steely Dan."
ever been a better time to buy or sell tin foil.
Go long on empty beer cans by the side of the road.
Dawg --
Don't you mean "disinflation"?
How soon before Alcoa becomes a bank holding company?
I hope they have a Fantastic Finish.
Don't you mean "disinflation"?
I've yet to recieve specific instructions from the Central Communitariat. When they get through I expect a word like; anti-inflato-dis- staglafatory.
I'm old enough to remember the "Alcoa presents : Fantastic Finishes," from NFL games back when.
Don't think this one will end in such an exciting way.
Alcoa sold,(or abandoned), its property in Edgewater, NJ several decades ago. The site was so polluted it was sold for $1.00.
I'm in NYC Ironwork, and I'm hoping we see what we had in 1990-1995, (very little new construction besides cival work, lots of alteration/addition. The mindset back then was: well, we can't borrow 700 million to erect a new crown-jewel headquarters, but we can get 150 Mil for a rehab/upgrade.)
Anyone else notice how expensive it is getting to make tinfoil hats? This should have maintained demand for aluminum. Must be a lot of recycling happening.
You Make The Call, Alcoa, to Hank Paulson.
Reynolds Wrap is the new TARP !
Market is going to rally on this news!!!
Anyone else notice how expensive it is getting to make tinfoil hats?
Peak Aluminum. Just ask the Peakenese why the oil producers just dropped their output like China and Alcoa did with Aluminum.
I will be unemployed by the end of this month I am sure; but if not, huzzah!
I think the gov't should require that streets be made of aluminum to help out poor Alcoa. In the summer, you could fry eggs and other foods on them to save energy costs.
That IBM stuff is from Global Services IIRC. Global Services suck big "Steely Dan"...IMNSHO.
Funny one Rob...
Barney Fudd...
ROFL.
Nostrovia,
Elvis - LOL, that's actually a great idea. At least for certain areas of sidewalks.
"Anonymous | 01.06.09 - 6:11 pm | #"
Was me.
"Anyone else notice how expensive it is getting to make tinfoil hats?"
Yes...Prices are dropping nicely on inputs and demand is up! Whoot!
Nostrovia,
Rob Dawg writes:
Clearly we need an aluminium bail-out. Somebody call Barney Frank.
Rumor has it he is more partial to a "Steely Dan."
The winner in the "Name the Massive Stimulation Package" contest.
Alcoa had a 70's marketing song/slogan seen here:
Alcoa: About Alcoa: It all starts with dirt
"Alcoa can't wait (to fire you)"
"Elvis - LOL, that's actually a great idea. At least for certain areas of sidewalks.
t.k.foster"
Maybe sidewalks are a better place. I'd get angry if someone ran over my filet.
Hmmm. If they're taking the whole year to fire all the employees, they must not see a second half recovery.
IBM should just cut a letter instead of all those people. BM.
"I'd get angry if someone ran over my filet."
Before or after you started cooking it?
Running over your dinner pre-cooking is a great way to tenderdize it. Esp. Possum. Tough meat that.
Nostrovia,
All those accountants trying to determine how much money to save must be asking for some money. Let's start with their heads!
Don't worry. Once consumers run out and spend their $500 tax cut on aluminum foil, IBM will immediately rehire the 16,000 workers at $3K a pop.
Or something.
OT, some B of A earning projections:
4th quarter: One cent/share
1st Quarter: Six cents/share
CNBC headline: B of A profits up 500%
"Before or after you started cooking it? Running over your dinner pre-cooking is a great way to tenderdize it. Esp. Possum. Tough meat that."
This song for the thread:
YouTube - Elvis Presley - Love Me Tender
Don't worry - the Birth/Death model will add 50,000 residental construction workers to compensate.
Jim
I blame big Tin !
Did the Hansen Brothers stop buying foil?
Hey momma.
BOOYAH!
This will do wonders for productivity metrics.
The problem here is that you guys stopped drinking beer.
I blame Big Foil. Tin got the Foil Shaft when Aluminum moved in.
Thread music
Tin Man
I'm gonna start using lead foil. Sure it has certain disadvantageous health effects, but so does aluminum.
On the other hand, it sweetens things wrapped in it, which is a plus.
Nostrovia,
oh my G**, everybody check to make sure you hats are safe !!!!
This comment thread is just brimming with the adolescent humor I love. The kind where the word "Uranus" is automatically funny.
"Steely Dan" - Rob Dawg
"Massive stimuluation package" - ratefink
Huh huh huh.
It must be said Rob Dawg is particularly on.
"And the beat goes on ..."
It is one of those Carribean Islands metal beat, I suspect.
IM SMELTING, IM SMELTING !!!
Arthur Vining Davis would roll over in his Saran Wrap.
--
Alcoa execs can seee the global depression.
Jas
Theme Music - - -- from Metalica
"The problem here is that you guys stopped drinking beer.
Popeye"
No, the problem is I have directly piped in to my house via my kitchen sink now. No need for cans.
OT: did anybody else see the WSJ article on the success of fluffing up the student loan pot? It seems the only broad-based group that has the pols scared sh*tless is college students and their parents. "Take my house, take my car, take my VISA, but don't you dare let my student come back home.!"
YouTube -
"Steely Dan" - Rob Dawg
"Massive stimuluation package" - ratefink
Huh huh huh.
It must be said Rob Dawg is particularly on.
- Mr. Sparkle
Ratefink deserves the accolades for the deepest most penetrating commentary.
Did Cerebus recently acquire Alcoa?
How will this affect Maria's Nightstand Cowboy?
Oil sector heading downtown - confirmed last hour of trading. EEM taking a little longer to roll over, but it will.
TBT should pull back now, to the $39 area.
Still short NEM, glod chopping around but heading lower.
@Rob - I don't know... I particularly liked your bit about not receiving the communique from Central Communitariat.
And anything that makes fun of Barney Fwank automatically gets an extra boost. I have this strange suspicion that when the book gets written, he is going to be the surprising ruination of so much more than ever imagined.
Everyone trying to be Keynesians at once. Sovereign debt issuance will easily crowd out other offerers. Corporate debt spread wider. Default risk gliding higher.
Video - CNBC.com
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France, Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary reported substantial drops in supplies from Russia. Some governments and utilities sought to reassure the public, saying well-stocked storage facilities would allow them to weather the storm. Still, the growing fallout from the dispute evoked memories of the 2006 Gazprom-Ukraine gas war -- and starkly reflected once again the continent's energy dependence on Moscow."
Who would you rather depend on for energy? The Russians or the Saudis?
Everyone trying to be Keynesians at once.
personally, I'm feeling very much like a rodent during the Juasic period - before anybody could tell who would win.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"Oil sector heading downtown - confirmed last hour of trading. EEM taking a little longer to roll over, but it will."
Still holding EEV?
"The problem here is that you guys stopped drinking beer."
I've had three beers already this evening - the brand is from central Europe, and very nice it is too. That's one thing they do well.
Jurasic - crap now, I'm gonna have to go look it up.
Who would you rather depend on for energy? The Russians or the Saudis?
citizen Kung Fu Panda
thats why they are building a pipeline in the baltic sea to circumvent the Ukraine...
the "Orange Revolution" was sponsored by the neocons, Putin sure didnt forget.. btw if Oil stays low wait for public unrest in the ME, guess if democracy takews hold there you will envy Europe for not have a ocean between your fossil need..
Bear in mind, if choosing to make fun of Barney Frank on the basis of "tee hee he likes the d**k," that inarguably so does your mama.
Yeah, those 16,000 IBM jobs will be almost ALL cut in the USA.
While the 1 million jobs that they promise to create if Obama gives them $30 billion will be in India and China.
Sigh. Say what you want about Barney Frank, but at least he doesn't solicit people in airport restrooms or isn't a pedophile. Like some of his collegues from the other party.
"personally, I'm feeling very much like a rodent during the Juasic period - before anybody could tell who would win."
No rodents then - they came much later, after the Cretaceous boundary event, what Talib might have called a black swan event if he had been a triceratops.
The Jurassic Period -During the early Jurassic then, evolution seems to have polarised: on the one hand there were the ruling land animals, the great dinosaurs, which filled the ecological roles now taken up by medium-sized and large mammals; on the other hand the first mam-mals had appeared, and together with the tritylodont Therapsids they filled the small rodent and insectivore niche.
This just in from AP:
Fears mount of Gaza conflict spill over in Europe
"PARIS Government officials and Jewish leaders are concerned the conflict in Gaza may spill over into violence in Europe, with attacks reported against Jews and synagogues in France, Sweden and Britain.
Assailants rammed a burning car into the gates of a synagogue in Toulouse, in southwest France, Monday night.
A Jewish congregation in Helsingborg, in southern Sweden, was attacked Monday night by someone who "broke a window and threw in something that was burning," said police spokesman Leif Nilsson. And on Sunday slogans, including "murderers ... You broke the cease-fire," were daubed on Israel's Embassy in Stockholm.
In Denmark, a 27-year-old Dane born in Lebanon to Palestinian parents is alleged to have injured two young Israelis last week in a shooting police suspect could be linked to the Gaza crisis. Belgium ordered police in Antwerp and Brussels to be on increased state of alert" Tuesday after recent pro-Palestinian protests ended in violence and arrests. France has Western Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities and a history of anti-Semitic violence flaring when tensions in the Middle East are high. In 2002, some 2,300 Jews left France for Israel because they felt unsafe. Even in normal times, anti-Semitic incidents are not uncommon."
A great news day for Europe...not!
Comrade V,
Yeah, still holding EEV @ 46.X
EEM can still go a little higher because it closed higher. However, EEM's volume benchmark is off by 70% - which is an enormous failure at these highs.
I'd seriously consider looking at DUG, though. The biggest weightings in XLE are rolling over - XOM is the weakest, CVX right behind, COP, SLB, OXY, etc. Big consolidation, unless they break through their Oct. lows, but either way that makes this a likely turn.
Beer is fud.
I got no stomach for snark over this stuff, but I understand that it's gallows humour. I'm just sad.
Uffish Thought writes:
Beer is fud.
Not true. Humans, when forced, can go as long as 10 days without fud. Beer however...
PCA:
Yeah, still in EEV and only that now apart from GLD.
I'm holding out on that one.
Ukraine-Russia. It's quite likely that Putin knows every word that passed between Shaakashvili and Yushchenko during the recent unpleasantness between Russia and Georgia.
Putin swore after Beslan that he would follow the Chechens who committed that atrocity 'even into the s***house.'
I don't think it would be pleasant to have Putin for an enemy.
--
Impotent economies and dopes require more and more and more artificial stimuli. Dopes cant come to terms with their impotence, especially, the born-and-bred kind. At some point in time, the stimuli stop working and dopes are left with no choice but to come to terms with the reality.
Born-and-bred American dopes are politically impotent dopes in denial.
Jas
Rob Dawg:
Necronomicon Ex Cartoonus
YouTube - Happy Tree Friends - Read 'Em and Weep (Halloween Special)
Pavel,
The mammals were to remain small and individually insignificant - comparable to shrews, mice and rats of today - although doubtless very significant ecologically, for the 135 million years of the dinosaurs reign.
ghostfaceinvestah writes:
Market is going to rally on this news!!!
ghostfaceinvestah | 01.06.09 - 6:10 __________________________________
Oh hell yeah. Futures already up. The market will surely rally as unemployment climbs to 20%. Because bad news means the Fed will cut rates! Oh wait....that means the Fed will....do something BIG! Confidence restored.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"... EEM's volume benchmark is off by 70% - which is an enormous failure at these highs."
OK, see that.
"I'd seriously consider looking at DUG, though."
But using volume in contra index again as indicator, what do you make of DXO - up on volume 5X average???
Thanks for your comments.
hyperinflation
they no haz it
Like most of you, I am reading everyone's comments. I feel much better for having gone back to cash today. Thanks.
"Pavel,
The mammals were to remain small and individually insignificant - comparable to shrews, mice and rats of today - although doubtless very significant ecologically, for the 135 million years of the dinosaurs reign."
Yeah, I always feel uncomfortable when I read phrases like 'ruling land animals.' I think it's a human projection. Who decides who the ruler is, or even if there is a ruler, when an ecosystem is exquisitely balanced, and each species plays an important, maybe indispensable role.
Compltetly OT, but Gupta for Surgeon General? Is he not just a toady for the MSM and AMA?
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=gupta+moore+larry+king&hl=en&emb=0&aq=0&oq=gupta+moore#
Sigh. Say what you want about Barney Frank, but at least he doesn't solicit people in airport restrooms or isn't a pedophile. Like some of his collegues from the other party.
badger boy | 01.06.09 - 6:39 pm | #
I still like that one pastor who encouraged his flock to vote GOP, while he smoked/snorted crystal meth with a gay prostitute on weekdays. Good times.
Great Layoff tracker website:
Untitled Document
All this talk about B Frank & rodents ...
Marinated gerbil. It's for after dinner.
Inviting discussion on SRS. What could be propelling IYR and DJUSRE in the face of fundamentals? Just looking for yield, at any risk?
Poor Ponyless.
That site had the IBM news on their last week
Blackhalo writes:
Compltetly OT, but Gupta for Surgeon General? Is he not just a toady for the MSM and AMA?
Shill or toady, something like that. He got mad at Mike Moore for pointing out the flaws.
You are of course right as usual Dawg.
Care to comment on the use of "the" before words such as Ukraine and Highway 101?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Who decides who the ruler is, or even if there is a ruler, when an ecosystem is exquisitely balanced, and each species plays an important, maybe indispensable role.
I know I'm pushing trite, but throw in an ice age - financially.
Has anyone here ever stopped to consider that if individuals are becoming unstable, economies are destablizing, and financial systems are unstable, that whole countries and blocks of countries can go wonky?
Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
Pavel Chichikov
guess you need a critical mass of dopes for that..
actual it is when leaders become unstable the individuals follow..
1929er: Could the emphasis on student loans be due to the same thinking that gave us the G.I. Bill: "If we can put 'em in college, they won't be looking for work.?"
Comrade V,
Crude's gonna pull back. Look for DXO to test 2.35, at least. But I benchmark DXO/DTO or anything that's "crude oil" off the USO because USO is the most liquid, longest trading crude ETF. And USO went to a higher high, closed underneath yesterday's high, Friday's high, on about 20-40% lighter volume.
"Like most of you, I am reading everyone's comments. I feel much better for having gone back to cash today. Thanks.
Popeye"
This place will always make you feel good about cash or shorts...don't confuse that with reality however.
Bill Poole on Bloomberg TV mp3 link:
drop.io sacrealstats001
From that layoffdaily site crisy posted.
Page not found- msnbc.com
Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company. How could their estimates be so far off the mark? We could have 1MM layoffs in a single month in 2009, forget the whole year.
citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France...
Bulgarian co-worker tells me today, Russia always shuts of gas/electric thru-out the winter months. His family's neighborhood no-longer has trees due to needs of heat fuel source. This time their really worried and preparing to move parents to USA. Mother is a school administator and father has a delivery business.
Leaving behind 125 year family homestead.
Could the emphasis on student loans be due to the same thinking that gave us the G.I. Bill: "If we can put 'em in college, they won't be looking for work.?"
No. It's more from the other side. They're more concerned about higher education complex.
meant to crispy, not crisy.
and "Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company." I should have said "oft quoted". I actually don't know if they are well-respected or not.
So Central and Eastern Europe should just sign over their sovereignty to Russia now and save everyone a lot of brouhaha...much easier that way. Putin would take care of those Palestinian protesters in short order.
They're more concerned about higher education complex.
Basel Too | 01.06.09 - 7:08 pm | #
Buch of Profs. finding out tenure might not be what it once was now that the HELOC ATM is closed? I am a big fan of college tuition coming down without having to go into debt for it. If they are going to subsidise ed, GI Bill is the way to go. Particularly for returning Vets.
--
"Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?"
Pavel Chichikov,
No "can" in the cases of America and India. "Are" is the right word.
Democracy is codeword for destruction. Breeding dopes is a necessity to instill faith in democracy. Dopes don't know no history. Dopes operate on blind faith.
Jas
"Marinated gerbil. It's for after dinner."
A savory!
citizen Kung Fu Panda
you should stop by just blaming
Putin..
i am pretty sure Yushenko has is more than half share on this..
IMO Putin is more thrustworthy then the Bunch running the White House!!!
"So Central and Eastern Europe should just sign over their sovereignty to Russia now and save everyone a lot of brouhaha.."
Fortunately for them they have a protector.
Free beer in cans might stimulate demand.
"Budweiser Bank has applied to the TARP program to offset the costs of a new marketing program. Mr. FizzUpYourNose is quoted as saying "These folks have had enough Koolaid, its time to move on" and ""We would like to do our part to help the amerikan taxpayer - maybe they will feel a little less pain". The share cost of Alcoa jumped 3% on the news of the pending program.
Jas Jain writes:
"Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?"
Can one person become too punishingly redundant ?
OT
Bankster 'Sweet'stakes
Sold!
IndyMac goes for only 1.3 billion in cash to a group of investors including: buyout investor J. Christopher Flowers, of J.C. Flowers & Co., LLC ; hedge fund operator John Paulson of Paulson Investment Company, Inc. and the financial funds Stone Point Capital; George Soros' SSP Offshore LLC; Silar MCF-I LLC; and MSD Capital, which manages capital for Michael Dell and family. The buyers are operating as a thrift holding company controlled by IMB Management Holdings and have applied for a federal holding company charter and plan to turn IndyMac from a mutual savings bank to a stock-held institution.
For 1.3 billion in cash, the lucky winners in this bankster 'sweet'stakes get over 100 branches and a $158 billion mortgage-servicing portfolio.
But that's not all.
The Federales will assume the first 20% of losses on Indymac's assets. The Federales will then pony up 80% of the losses for the next 10% of losses, and then 95% of losses on the reminder of the portfolio.
But that's not all.
The assets that the Federales will take the first 20% of the losses against? We can't be told what those assets are until after the deal closes. Hmmmmm... why is that you wonder?
WSJ reports: 'The FDIC's term sheet says it's transferring to the new bank $16 billion of loans, $6.9 billion of securities as well as other assets -- far more than $13.9 billion(the declared 'value' of the deal). This suggests big write-downs will occur at the time of the deal to get the new bank's assets down to $13.9 billion. Such write-downs would help the buyers. Substantial losses would effectively be taken on the assets before the buyers own them.'
When OTS closed IndyMac in July their estimated assets were worth more than $32 billion.
So in summary $32 billion in July becomes $22.9 billion and 'other assets' by January and the lucky winners get the Federales to backstop up to ((.20+.08+(.95*.7=.665)) =94.5 % of total losses.
But wait that's not all.
The lucky winners have to continue a loan-modification program that is being severely criticized by the Street because it is the only one that has been fairly successful.
Per the FDIC:
Mortgages Eligible for Modification 46,500
Total Modification Offers Mailed to date 32,274
Total Completed Modifications (Verified Income) to date 8,512
Total Additional Verbal Acceptances of Offers to date 9,480
And in return for this citizen-friendly narrative? Well, they get to use IndyMac as a Berkshire Hathaway styled acquisition vehicle and perform the full faith and credit insured carry trade for as far as their imagination takes them.
Oh but wait that's not all! As previously stated, there are a bunch of writedowns happening at the time of this deal and it bears repeating such write-downs would help the buyers. Substantial losses would effectively be taken on the assets before the buyers own them.
Here's why it bears repeating:
By JESSE DRUCKER
January 6, 2009
Wall Street Journal
'The main business tax cuts proposed by President-elect Barack Obama are likely to be a windfall for two industries particularly tied to the current economic meltdown: Wall Street investment banks and home builders.
Under the proposal being crafted by the incoming Obama administration and congressional Democrats, companies would be able to use their so-called tax losses to offset taxable U.S. profits earned in the past five years.
Typically, companies can carry back such losses only two years. The Obama proposals likely would mean that companies with enormous losses from last year and this year could use the losses to help wipe out tax obligations from the previous five years and receive sizable tax-refund checks from the Treasury Department.'
It's so very good to be a bankster!
Posted by Anonymous Monetarist
I filled up the tank today - $1.44/gal (northern nj).
Deflation works for me.
oh, hat tip Popeye
LAM,
That is disturbing. Puts the current media focus on the dispute in a different light. On the other hand, immigrating to the USA is a move that has generally worked out well for a lot of people.
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- biggest aluminum producer, said a production line at its New Zealand smelter is still closed after a transformer failure in November cut capacity by about 30 percent.
Dec. 19 (Southland Times) -- The Tiwai Point smelter is encouraging staff who have accumulated leave to take it during the Christmas period....
NYC unemployment phone system crashes...too many calls:
Whoops...
"Russia always shuts of gas/electric thru-out the winter months."
Hey, they do it in parts of Russia. Why should Bulgaria consider itself special?
ABC: State labor department officials say the problem started Monday and caused the phone banks at the state's toll-free claims center to shut down, followed by the online filing system. Leo Rosales, an agency spokesman, says as many as 10,000 people per hour were trying to log into the system.
Angry Saver writes:
I filled up the tank today - $1.44/gal (northern nj).
I'm midwest & caught $1.46 about a week ago. I'm staring at $1.87 today.
Keep it full Bro.
test
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"I benchmark DXO/DTO or anything that's "crude oil" off the USO because USO is the most liquid, longest trading crude ETF. And USO went to a higher high, closed underneath yesterday's high, Friday's high, on about 20-40% lighter volume."
OK, I have set my stop on DXO and will revisit EEV and DUG in AM. Many thanks for sharing your analysis. Win, lose or draw you're an honest trader.
Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
Pavel Chichikov | 01.06.09 - 6:59 pm
Of course they can. The 20th century was the century that Western civilization slit its collective wrists.
Verdun, Ypres, Auschwitz, Kursk, the whole endkampf thing, etc
Looking at the charts for... just about everything, with the massive drops... I can't believe everyone lost money. is the information published anywhere about investors who are making out like bandits right now, things like EEM, EEV where they dropped very hard and are now rebounding slightly?
just wondering if there are a group that are making money hand over fist at this point.
as 10,000 people per hour were trying to log into the system.
crispy&cole
Holy S**t!
more on student loans: This episode shows there is at least one demographic that will not be denied; now where do the rest of us sign up to get even (or ahead of) the banksters?
I wonder if they will now put beer in one of those boxes like they do the good wine!
Of course they can. The 20th century was the century that Western civilization slit its collective wrists.
Asia too. Imperial Japan, Mao's Great Leap Forward.
"Fortunately for them they have a protector."
Who would that be? Seriously...are you suggesting...the...USA? My previous comment was flippant, but now I want to know...do you consider the USA the entity to fill this bill or is it some other entity?
Popeye:
Gas in midwest went from $1.47 to 1.87 in course of a week?
Did I read that right?
I confess to being in a foul mood today. Whenever I see photos in the press of limp children being carried out of buildings in war zones it affects me that way. I don't give a goddamn what the press releases say about the reasons and excuses. War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
I wonder if they will now put beer in one of those boxes like they do the good wine!
Mmmmm. "Box'O'Bud" and then we can be like the USSR with Vodka lines.
if there are a group that are making money hand over fist at this point.
Anonymous
Made 10.9% yesterday, 13% today. Since December 05, up 74%.
That said lost a few teeth in October 08.
Homedad,
Yes.
just wondering if there are a group that are making money hand over fist at this point.
Anonymous | 01.06.09 - 7:20 pm
Try Denningers blog
Don't forget Africa on the list.
Uganda. Rwanda. And Zimbabwe is doing stellar too, as they examine the concept of infinite currency.
I heard that Chinese new year is going to be extra-long this year... So, if you have dependancies on deliverables from that region, plan ahead...
Aluminum is People
YouTube - Aluminum is People
Typically, companies can carry back such losses only two years. The Obama proposals likely would mean that companies with enormous losses from last year and this year could use the losses to help wipe out tax obligations from the previous five years and receive sizable tax-refund checks from the Treasury Department.
Unbelievable. Or I should say typical. Wall street will pay back the TARP interest & loans with tax rebate checks. I guess the year end bonuses and dividends aren't enough.
This swindle is even bigger than I thought possible.
Our financial system is a sham! Our politicians are shams too.
War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
I'm with you Pavel. If only the gun-toters and rocketeers could figure that out.
I'm probably going to regret this...Jas Jain, there has been a good deal of discussion on the USDs medium on long prospects...Would like your opinion (let me say a reasoned opinion, please)
Barley writes:
Since December 05, up 74%.
Barley.... is that measure taken against total assets available for risk trade - or just that % you had bet at the time ?
"Who would that be? Seriously...are you suggesting...the...USA? My previous comment was flippant, but now I want to know...do you consider the USA the entity to fill this bill or is it some other entity?"
Russia will not be moving in a military way, even if it wanted to and were capable of doing so on eastern Europe because of US protection. Non-starter, and I believe, personally, that the protection is strategic.
Georgia is different.
"Asia too. Imperial Japan, Mao's Great Leap Forward."
Yep.
I actually laughed in the car today as I heard a radio ad for the safety of ol' dependable State Farm Bank.
Committed to safe business for 100+ years.
Yep, they hooked up to the TARP too.
Agree with Pavel about pix of kids, but I wouldn't mind seeing some lifeless business being carried from the rubble.
Nice comment about effluvia, Pavel.
Barley, Angry Saver is on Jas Jain duty tonight, ask him
"1929er writes:
War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
I'm with you Pavel. If only the gun-toters and rocketeers could figure that out."
Here in the South Pacific we know a tribal war when we see one.
Popeye - a % return for the slush funds set aside to play
Commodities generally acting oddly divergent. Oil starts strong, finishes weak. Hell, it's moved 30%.
I have an oilsands that I put on in December. Maybe a virgin for the volcano.
PMs started weak, finished fine. Almost lost my silver position to a stop, felt like a fool hanging in there with it. Gold having trouble with its downtrend line (and its 200) since last June.
No new longs here in the general markets. I see some pretty good looking basic materials and tech charts, but some oscillators showing it as overbought as it has been in a year. This is a time to sell, methinks.
Barley | 01.06.09 - 7:26 pm |
Egad! You dope!
I have spent all week dealing with Sprints Managed Network Division. If they were a gov agency - they would be called FEMA.
As far as unemployment. How many companies, I believe, have made it as difficult as possible to talk to real people. Just like the scam about getting everything electronically. You spend your money and time doing the printing.
Barley:
can you get Ken Cooper to develop a diatribe filter before you ask Jas? Kind of like a secret code where you filter out every three words and the remaining words make up the message?
morning ..nice article..permit to second read your blog.. Market Value
OT-Can anyone Identify the full cast of characters on the "Slap-it" Mortgage-wear hoodie?? (in case someone asks)
"Can whole countries commit acts of self-destruction?
Pavel Chichikov "
Not just countries, whole continents. See Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror, her history of Europe in the 14th Century. Includes the Hundred Year's War, the Black Plague, papal schism, and the Little Ice Age, as well as Viking terrorists.
What really pisses me off is self service checkout. Lets see, we eliminate the job, you do the work. We save money.
Any techno geeks here seen the OLED TVs yet?
I have been using the same piece of crap 19" tube TV for over 10 years. i could tolerate it lob=nger but the sound (and my hearing) is crap.
In the market to get a 42" TV. But wondering how long before a 30+ inch OLED TV will be mass market. From what I hear, it is the best picture imaginable, and uses a fraction of the energy. I know the only thing out now is an outrageously expensive 11" unit. Wondering if anybody with geek skillz knows what's coming down the pike.
Actually, Jas does have some good acumen.
That said, let me summarize it in about 5 words.
"We did it to ourselves."
I'm still wrapping myself around mp's Mad Max scenario...violence or fuel scarcity, or mix?
Pavel,
Thanks...I appreciate your comments here.
Barley, Angry Saver is on Jas Jain duty tonight, ask him
Gary
LOL!
Angry Saver?? Where art thou?
Earlier today Rich pointed out that commodity ETFs [specifically, food as reflected in DBA] had risen by 25% in the past month and challenged us to draw conclusions.
Don't get me wrong, I think Rich is smarter than I am. However, I'd like to offer an answer.
WHR is up 57% during the same period.
Don't ask me, I'm with the rodents.
OT: The new US Senate is the oldest in history, with an average age of 63
You are saying that as if it was a bad thing. I believe that every civilization eventually succumbs to hubris and slits its wrists. The west is just the latest member of that club.
The ultimate result of that process is something we like to call evolution.
"Of course they can. The 20th century was the century that Western civilization slit its collective wrists."
I'm still wrapping myself around mp's Mad Max scenario...violence or fuel scarcity, or mix?
Jeebus, All I want is other people to lose their jobs. Not me. The whole Mad Max thing is like taking a step down a dark hallway.
Gary writes:
Any techno geeks here seen the OLED TVs yet
YES YES YES - and I just bought an LCD a few months ago..we got an instore discount of $500 clams but LED is much better
fried re "Distant Mirror"
Best overall history book I ever read, bar none. Read that tome twice.
Presently slowly re-reading "Guns of August".
She was a good historian and phenomenal writer...
Actually, I think that I'm going to follow up on something I set aside last year...see if there are any financial histories of the US treasury department. Know that we've defaulted in our past (19th century as I recall) and been on verge of bankruptcy before. What's been done and how handled?
Curious.
DBA is 3 grains plus sugar (which makes no sense).
Any number of bad things could tip us off the knife's edge of food production. It is really a very unstable system at this point.
Ask Pavel for his poetry feed. It's a nice break from the usual stuff that comes into my email.
I met some people a few decades ago who held interesting positions in the strategic weapons forces. I'm quite certain there was nothing abnormal about them personally, no fangs, polite and rather intelligent. But if the orders were ever to be sent, the orders would be carried out. No question at all.
Read an interesting story about 'Bomber' Harris recently. He was stopped for speeding by a traffic policeman in wartime England, but then the officer saw the special identifying badge on the car that permitted the occupant to drive at any speed.
The policeman said to Harris: But do be careful, sir, you might kill someone.
Harris replied: My dear man, I'm paid to kill people.
Nova - made some nice coin on S today....they should make Sherri G. CEO and I would load up big time for a long positio
Don't cry for the poor Alcoans, who will soon be constructing tin foil bridges and overpasses while garnering healthy 10% pay raises.
I've got one word for you, Benjamin, and it ain't "plastics".
let me summarize [Jas] in about 5 words.
"We did it to ourselves."
- Homedad43
5 words is tough. Does this count?:
Non-US civilizations shit don't stink.
Barley | 01.06.09 - 7:38 pm |
They got bad news coming. I know this.
Jas Jain writes:
Impotent economies and dopes require more and more and more artificial stimuli. Dopes cant come to terms with their impotence, especially, the born-and-bred kind. At some point in time, the stimuli stop working and dopes are left with no choice but to come to terms with the reality.
Born-and-bred American dopes are politically impotent dopes in denial.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 6:47 pm | #
Do you have a contest with yourself every day to see how many different ways you can use the word dope in a paragraph?
I believe you are becoming that which you despise.
A dope.
fried writes:
"See Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror, her history of Europe in the 14th Century."
Follow that with The Proud Tower, her best IMO. Great historian.
I know this sounds cold but "Greenspans bodycount" is up to three with today's addition. The first jumped out of the 29th floor, the second slit his wrists and todays most recent victim jumped in front of a train.
German tycoon Adolf Merckle commits suicide
| Reuters
Very sad.
Citizen Kung Fu Panda writes:
Pavel,
Thanks...I appreciate your comments here.
citizen Kung Fu Panda | 01.06.09 - 7:34 pm | # "
You're most welcome.
Dark hallway...depends on what your looking for
RE "Distant Mirror"-Barbara Tuchman, the author was dismissed by many academics because she lacked a P.H.D.
I guess some people would rather be "qualified" and read by 15 people. Wonderfull book, albeit a bit dense.
, says as many as 10,000 people per hour were trying to log into the system.
crispy&cole | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 7:18 pm | #
Right... this should keep the numbers down.... you're not unemployed if you can't register!!!!!!!!!
The bottom is in!!!!!!!!!!!!
Michael | 01.06.09 - 7:40 pm
When I saw his first name I knew he had to be over 70.
My guess- the end of western countries that refuse non-whites decent jobs based on their race.
Think about it, who is going to pay taxes and run stuff to keep the boomers going. The low level of education, feminised thinking and risk aversion in the west has made whites subsequent to the baby boomers too incompetent to run a technological society. Come to think of it, the boomers were the first partly feminized generation..
And then there is the demographic issue.. in case you think I am being racist I also believe that japan and some asian countries will also suffer a similar fate, though they might hang on a bit longer
"nova writes:
I'm still wrapping myself around mp's Mad Max scenario...violence or fuel scarcity, or mix?
Jeebus, All I want is other people to lose their jobs. Not me. The whole Mad Max thing is like taking a step down a dark hallway."
@fried: "Not just countries, whole continents ... Europe in the 14th Century."
I'm feeling snarky tonight, so I have to add that in the case of Europe (West of Russia) even a continent-sized country wouldn't be that large...
And I'll top it off by adding that to the naked eye staring at view of the earth from space, Europe isn't really a continent in any case...
But even continent-sized countries have committed enormous acts of self-destruction, and much more recently than the 14th century. Russia fell apart twice in the 20th century and suffered enormous human losses in the middle (WW2) as well. The U.S. had its Civil War. British India had a bloody separation into India/Pakistan/Bangladesh (okay, that's only a subcontinent).
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years. Seems like, for most people for much of history, things have been very challenging at least a few times in a 50-75 year lifespan.
We should be working harder to protect that which has made life good, and not putting up with as much of that which threatens to ruin it, IMHO...
But unfortunately (as Jas points out for us ad nauseam) too much of an easy time invariably breeds dopes who lose their vigor and vim. It takes at least a cold shower of economic distress to reawaken the sleeping giant.
OT: The new US Senate is the oldest in history, with an average age of 63
Currently Accounting | 01.06.09 - 7:35 pm | #
I would wager that the entire U.S. workforce, is the oldest it has been in history. Not just longeviety, but vaporized retirement funds, and boomers unwilling to pass the reigns on.
Upcoming iPhone offer - pay $1.50 to see a 5 minute take on current movies..cool
Angry Saver?? Where art thou?
I don't see a deflation like the 1930s. I can't find a single deflation under a fiat regime. Japan had a mild CPI deflation, but money and credit increased. A mild deflation in CPI would suit me fine.
That said, Bernanke sure seems determined. I moved a big chunk from from intermediate treasuries to TIPS. I also bought USO & OIL as a hedge for my next five years worth of energy expenses.
But take everything I say with a big grain of salt. I'm not trying to make money from money here. I gave that up back in 1998 when I thought stocks were stupid high. I was way early. Still, I've done better than most - a few percent over inflation after taxes.
This place will always make you feel good about cash or shorts...don't confuse that with reality however.
GiezCubed | 01.06.09 - 7:03 pm | #
After a 6 month, 50% equity/commodity decline, with a new potus, an upcoming trillion$ stimulus, and recession talk all-around, I'm thinking a large, bear market short squeeze is in order, say to the NAZ gap at 1950, up 300, up 20%. Look at it, it's picture perfect. Then bearish as ever, again.
Nova:
I recall about 1 - 2 months ago you had a very bad night with all of this stuff. I sympathized, been there and done that.
That said, I'm responsible for the family "defense" - spouse plays "offense" - and am now having to be the canary for multiple other families. There are nights that I feel a gnawing in my stomach for what's coming but would rather have a clue for what's coming than get blindsided.
For all of the Alice in Wonderland stuff we've seen in the past 18 months, I try to remember that the tendency amongst this group is to really go long Armageddon.
Plus, it's history and I've got color commentary.
How cool is that?
I guess they got aluminum canned.
Barley,
So tell me.. how can a country like canada pay its obligations (to its own citizens)with a shrinking tax base (retirees + lower income replacements) over the next 5-10 years?
I think you should write an obituary for the 'great white north', because either the great north won't be white or there won't be a great north.
poor Alcoans
wes | 01.06.09 - 7:39 pm | #
Awes
can someone please shove about fifty pounds of mustard seeds up that jerks ass?
--
jazz not jas,
Thank God! Providing supporting evidence in support of one's disputed claim is not dopey, or wrong. It simply buttresses the argument.
Jas
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years. Seems like, for most people for much of history, things have been very challenging at least a few times in a 50-75 year lifespan.
Yes, we, or least I did, lived in a truly golden age. My life as a white male, over 50, American, has been better than what the entire human race experienced in every generation of its existence.
I'm thinking a large, bear market short squeeze is in order, say to the NAZ gap at 1950, up 300, up 20%. Look at it, it's picture perfect. Then bearish as ever, again.
The great fun bear rallies bring to the market is their unpredictability in time..... it's a little early for spring just yet - unless you are a little too hungry.
Can't we just triple the amount of fluoride in the water? I know the Green Party in Britain is against it, but they are named after the color of their teeth.
Say: I did the best I could. Then let it go.
Lucifer:
I think that what you say re incompetent to run a technological society is more akin to Wisdom Seeker's subsequent post.
I don't think that feminized thinking has anything to do with our present problems, apart from the wish to see that all are cared for. This has more to do with getting fat and lazy and permitting the demise of meritocracy. I know plenty of women appalled at what's going on with the TBTF meme.
@peAkcredit - yes, the NAS gap wants to be closed. Same gap shows on SPY at same day.
@Homedad43 - Feel like you're taking words out of my mouth all thread long. Thanks. Also, regarding gas price discussion far above, we're also seeing those surges here in California. Prices were in the $1.60s but are now just under $2.00. Guess the geopolitics is causing the speculators to refill their storage tanks or something...
Homedad43
Yes, any edge is an edge. Perhaps reading so much Sci-fi and history has given me fodder for an over active imagination.
Now, I read economics, and even my limited brain can tell that at best, soon will be the ugly time.
Just ask the Peakenese why the oil producers just dropped their output like China and Alcoa did with Aluminum.
Rob Dawg
EE, add ventura county to the list of; where to send peak oil missionaries.
sans actual accounting and monetary inputs, what is it that you thinks stops mankind from paving the planet and equiping every 16year old and up a 5liter v8 hunk of metal?
So Nova how will the upcoming generation fare? (those 16-20 somethings that are hell bent on being owed a living?)
ova,
Have you ever considered that the system has evolved and what was once easy is no longer easy and what was once impossible is now routine.
Emergent systems can evolve beyond their creators wildest dreams. Civilization is an emergent system and we do not know where it will lead. After achieving a certain level of emergence, systems can often influence their components beyond what you would believe to be possible. Maybe the normal has changed beyond what you would expect based on history.
Eastern Europe: I knew some Estonians in Moscow just before the fall of the Union. It is almost impossible to express the intensity of their fear of and loathing for the Russians. And not a little contempt. If you want to understand eastern Europe now, you have to take these feelings into account. They will do just about anything to avoid falling into that situation again. The cutting off of the gas will seem threatening to them in a way few of us here can imagine. They're members of NATO for a reason.
Barley | 01.06.09 - 7:58 pm
I don't know. I have a kid in that age range. The best I can say is that life can be an education. Actually I think they will do better than people my age. My generation is going to get its collective ass handed to them.
but, Condi said just a few months ago that Russia isn't relevant any more......
citizen Kung Fu Panda wrote:
"Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia, Serbia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments, while France, Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary reported substantial drops in supplies from Russia. Some governments and ...... dependence on Moscow."
I'm thinking about putting a bunch of letters in a hat and having my kid stick them to a wall. Then I'll throw darts at it blindfolded to get ticker symbols. Flip a coin to go long or short.
Might beat my current performance.
Right... this should keep the numbers down.... you're not unemployed if you can't register!!!!!!!!!
The bottom is in!!!!!!!!!!!!
Eric
Scary thought. How many might be axed? 8hours10,000/hour2 days would shift the stats just enough...
Oh, and all the talk about rodents; do not forget the squirrels must die.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Thank God! Providing supporting evidence in support of one's disputed claim is not dopey, or wrong. It simply buttresses the argument.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 7:51 pm | #
Hey! Who moved my dope?
Same gap shows on SPY at same day.
there's a nasty gap in BSC also.
gap theory is good for only one thing.
I pray you know how to fill it
Pavel Chichikov writes:
I confess to being in a foul mood today. Whenever I see photos in the press of limp children being carried out of buildings in war zones it affects me that way. I don't give a goddamn what the press releases say about the reasons and excuses. War is productive of two main effluents: Blood and bullshit.
Pavel Chichikov | 01.06.09 - 7:22 pm | #
This is a twist upon a similar remark related by Karlheinz Bohm, the German film and theatre actor, about what the great New German Cinema director, Fassbinder, said when asked about his political philosophy:
When I see bullshit, I just start firing in all directions
He had no patience for this sort of thing, either.
lucifer | 01.06.09 - 7:59 pm
I hope so. I just don't see it happening without a rebirth of the human mind, spirit, and imagination. Sometimes I think I can see faint outlines.
Then I think of all my kinsman in Southern Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia with their born again, gun toting, drug and booze fueled resentments watching what was supposedly their birthright disapear.
Actually the more the credit crisis worms its way into my bones, the more impressed I am at how abnormal the "normal life" has been here in Western Civilization for the past 50-odd years.
Yes, things were so much simpler with billions of Asians living in mud huts and Europe begging for our technology and muscle in the aftermath of WWII.
Prometheus or Pandora, it's just a matter of perspective.
"Feminized" populace rendered too incompetent in a technologically advanced society?
I wasn't aware it was my penis that enabled me to program the VCR. You learn something new every day.
EE, add ventura county to the list of; where to send peak oil missionaries. - Crispy Bait
Ye are best advised to study both the history and geography of American oil before intoning thus. Every summer I have to be careful driving my motorcycle between Ojai and Santa Paula in case crude oil has seeped out of the rocks onto the road. 6 generations of Peakenese have proselytized and died of old age here.
Since the dawn of the petroleum industry in the mid-19th century, concern has been expressed about the imminent exhaustion of the world's petroleum supplies. From today's perspective, such concerns were certainly premature, and even ludicrous:
--advertisement for "Kier's Rock Oil," 1855
--Pennsylvania State Geologist Wrigley, 1874
--David White, Chief Geologist, USGS, 1919
--L. Snider and B. Brooks, AAPG Bulletin, 1936
Any of those sound even vaguely familiar?
Found a probable candidate for economic crises in our history and ordered it.
"Cycles of American History" by Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.
We'll see.
God, I love the internet.
Later, folks.
homework with the kids...
Homedad 43,
I think that feminized thinking is about valuing risk aversion, micro-manangement, subjectivity over calculated risk taking, letting accidental discoveries occur and objectivity.
Tell me something.. if we had the post 1980 cultural mindset, would we ever have airplanes, agricultural chemicals, any large chemical industry, drugs, satellites or even cars?
think that feminized thinking is about... objectivity
I'm definitely objectified by my Seattle girlfriend. The other ones... not so much.
.
The way to save Alcoa:
Have beer declared to be a member of a food group. If we do the same for beer as Nancy Reagan did for ketchup (ketchup=vegetable)then ketchup could be a whole grain. School lunch programs across the nation could start serving up nutritious cans of beer daily. As an added bonus,the kiddies would no longer care if they were I-podless, homeless, etc.
Bearly, I was having a smallish cornish hen for dinner when I read your truly classic marinated gerbil comment. It was too close for comfort. I stared at it thinking this is small and almost rodent like for a bird--where's it been ? Total threw me off my fud.
Homedad43:
homework with the kids...
We built robots with K'nex, watched an episode of "Johnny Test" and are doing math now while listening to Bowie "Young Americans" on iTunes while I've been blogging. What's this later stuff?
Any of those sound even vaguely familiar?
Rob Dawg
are'nt those on page iivx of "the Prize" by yergin?
Deflation alert:
December was relatively chaotic in price, with more discounts than retailers planned, especially in department stores, Richard Hastings, a consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California, said in a telephone interview. Consumers have discovered that the industry is responding with lower and lower and lower prices.
Can you say "deflationary expectations"?
Re: Barbara Tuchman - it's notable that the "Golden Age of the Peasantry" came AFTER the disasters of the 14th century. Something about shaking the established orders up!
OT
Anybody watching Japanese stocks tonight? Several exporters--Canon (+9.4%), Nikon (+16%), Olympus (+7.8%), Honda (+9%)-- are climbing steeply on above average volume. For these stocks, it's the first time I've seen higher prices and higher volume in some time. The yen is weakening, but there is no other big news that I can find. Maybe some investors are returning to Japanese stocks after last year's horrible performance. Perhaps Japanese insurers are selling US Treasurys and buying domestic stocks?
Rob Dawg... in response to your comments previous thread
i wrote:
if we incur debt to make domestic capital investment, then WE CAN spend (invest) our way out of this crisis.
mock turtle
Rob Dawg replied:
No we cannot. You incorrectly assume that more debt will have less drag on the economy than will be created by infrastructure investment. For but one example were we to invest in a national train network there would not only be no return on investment but operating subsidies would add even to the initial capital debt.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 4:18 pm | #
mt replies
we disagree
ultimately capital investment will increase and with it productivity and GDP
much of this will be the result of debt, and or,investors will fore-go present consumption and disburse saving in the hope of realizing profit in the future
i appreciate that the obama admin and congress may make good... or bad investments
i realize that as the gov goes ahead with tax rebates to busineses and individuals those receiving the rebates may not invest in future productivity gains
but unless you believe that the country will experience an un- avoidabe and total economic collapse
then i continue to believe that, investment, from savings, and from debt, will hopefully increase productivity, and is the only way out of this crisis
we got here not because of debt, in my opinion, but because of the mis allocation of capital into non productive endeavors
lucifer writes:
Homedad 43,
I think that feminized thinking is about valuing risk aversion, micro-manangement, subjectivity over calculated risk taking, letting accidental discoveries occur and objectivity.
Wow, I bet you get all the girls.
Sue (Capital S) writes:
"Re: Barbara Tuchman - it's notable that the "Golden Age of the Peasantry" came AFTER the disasters of the 14th century. Something about shaking the established orders up!"
More like decimiation of 30% of the population due to plague and wars, which made labor scarce, more valuable and, consequently, better treated.
More like decimiation of 30% of the population due to plague and wars
Gunpowder helped, too.
KA-Boom!
Good Night, Sweet Prince!
.
we disagree
Nothing wrong with that and you make a cogent case.
ultimately capital investment will increase and with it productivity and GDP
No, this is where you make unwarranted assumptions. That's hopefully the case not ultimately.
much of this will be the result of debt, and or,investors will fore-go present consumption and disburse saving in the hope of realizing profit in the future
Let's do a reducto absurdum. What if that debt were at 40% interest? Okay, now you say that won't generate a return on investmentin infrastructure. 20%? 2%? Who can say but now you understand the exists a limit beyond which there is no future profit.
...
we got here not because of debt, in my opinion, but because of the mis allocation of capital into non productive endeavors
mock turtle | 01.06.09 - 8:30 pm | #
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Sure.. 200-300 $ an hour, your choice of looks, well reviewed and Multiple Shots On the Goal (MSOG).. say 2-3 times. Heck of a lot cheaper than a crappy sexless marriage, bitchy fat wife, screaming kids, threat of divorce, alimony, child support, pleasing wife etc.
Wow, I bet you get all the girls.
Bond Girl | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:32 pm | #
__
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Here's a good one - The Iraq War will pay for itself via oil revenues.
It's really hard for me to believe that any government program will "boost" the economy. Short term, it may see like a boost. In a few years, the majority will be worse off.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:06 pm | #
Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page
Res ipsa loquitur
"And the beat(ing) goes on" - CR
Until morale improves?
Sum up Jas Jain in 5 words?
"You're all dopes. You're f**ked."
More bank writedowns coming...
LyondellBasell units file for bankruptcy
DALLAS The U.S. arm of chemical giant LyondellBasell Industries has filed for bankruptcy as the recession continues to weaken demand for its products, which are used in everything from cars to detergents.
The Houston-based company said Tuesday that it had arranged for up to $8 billion in financing to keep operating while it reorganizes.
Lyondell Chemical Co. and related affiliates listed assets of $27.1 billion and liabilities of $19.3 billion. It identified 79 affiliates that will file for bankruptcy protection, including one of LyondellBasell's European holding companies.
The company identified its largest unsecured creditor as the Bank of New York, which is trustee for $615 million in notes and another $241.4 million in notes at an affiliate.
lucifer writes
"Heck of a lot cheaper than a crappy sexless marriage, bitchy fat wife, screaming kids, threat of divorce, alimony, child support, pleasing wife etc."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
..Stay Classy !
that chart of monthly US crude production is falacious because it's cheaper to have it shipped from KSA.
;-o)
"we got here not because of debt, in my opinion, but because of the misallocation of capital into non productive endeavors"
Couldn't it be both AND unscrupulous bankers and "blind" regulators, etc. - a perfect storm kinda thing?
I like this chart better:
Table 5.2 Crude Oil Production and Crude Oil Well Productivity, 1954-2007 Table 5.2 Crude Oil Production and Crude Oil Well Productivity, 1954-2008
So 1,200/month can get you about 5-6 new gals, young, hot, no strings, no BS, your time..
1200 * 12 = 24,000/ year and say about 40 different women (some repeats).
In 10 years, I have had over 400 hot women, and it cost me less than an average upper middle class divorce with an aging bitchy woman who has "grown apart" and "fallen out of love", not to mention the last 3-4 years of an almost sexless marriage.
Escorts are the logical and economic choice, marriage is for suckers who believe that women and society won't screw the over.
Wow, I bet you get all the girls.
Bond Girl | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:32 pm | #
It is all because all the aluminium cans people recycling. Otherwise the economy is fine.
Rob Dawg made several points
one was
(about debt for investment)
"Let's do a reducto absurdum. What if that debt were at 40% interest? Okay, now you say that won't generate a return on investment in infrastructure. 20%? 2%? Who can say but now you understand their exists a limit beyond which there is no future profit.."
Rob Dawg
you make a valid point
and i dont pretend that rescue by this or any other administration via debt, investment is anything near a sure thing
i agree that high interest rates will doom us...dont even want to think about what happens if the japanese and chinese decide to rapidly vacate their position in us gov debt (nightmare)
and its not clear if the banks will lend under any scenario i can envision...institution and individuals hoarding cash cause of fear
thats why i advocate, not an end to the federal reserve (although i woudnt cry if ben and company went away) but rather the institution of a Bank of the USA to loan direct at rates leaving a windnow of opportunity
yes yes yes, i realize my proposal toasts the USD...the dollars is headed for toast no matter what
btw as an investment i m not a big fan of "infrastructure"..ok ok build some bridges, dams and highways it may well help
but my number one recommendation is a 21st century appolo energy project...cleaner coal, hydro, solar, wind, tide, nuke...throw the kitchen sink at it and stop exporting a quarter to a half trillion dollars a year to foreigners who sell us energy
lucifer-
damn you are the devil..here i was thinking it was paulson..
Women are like waves, they are extremely beautiful but deceptively dangerous.....
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:42 pm | #
What is the ROI on the interstate highway system? The Hoover Dam? The Golden Gate Bridge? Education?
Maybe holding physical kilo bars is a good idea. Is comex having delivery problems ? Jesse's Café Américain: Is the Comex Doing Fractional Reserve Delivery of Gold?
Saver [It's really hard for me to believe that any government program will "boost" the economy]
I don't, if we had a government unfettered by special interests we could direct a crapload of capital at developing clean power generation. Game changing - not wind or solar. Maybe fusion. Something that makes a quantum leap.
Challenger, Gray is a pretty well-respected HR company. How could their estimates be so far off the mark? We could have 1MM layoffs in a single month in 2009, forget the whole year.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 01.06.09 - 7:04 pm |
"He says there could be a major shift toward telecommuting as employers look to cut costs without turning to layoffs."
Don't know if this suggestion has any traction, but if the eventual recovery includes depending on telecommuting at any significant level, that means less office space will be needed.
Hey! We found a use for that fifth bedroom!
jevins paradox , mock.
we throw the kitchen sink at it, and then we what?
ok to dispel Lucifers hand..some cd poetry
A long time seems distant to me
Seeing you for a little while
Gave me something to believe
Kissing your lips
Is burned into my memory
Your voice instilling hope
Angels must sound like you
Finally holding you close
Somehow I always knew
That day would come
Because dreams do come true
Destiny must feel like a cloud
That wonders around in the sky
Circling the earth
Never asking why
Knowing that another cloud
Almost exactly the same
Floats around
And they collide
The day we met
Ill never forget
Fate was our hand
And god played it
Now I feel complete
Because we didnt forget
That nothing can stand between
Hope and destiny
Somehow in the little time together
My soul seems richer
My vision more clear
My life that much more better
Your beauty everlasting
A smile like the sun
I walked in your garden
And nourished my spirit
Youre an angel that doesnt fly
Interesting story from nytimes...
Saving A Squirrel By Eating One - NY Times
it's like they're reading our minds.
favorite quote,
"Nichola Fletcher, a food writer and co-owner of a venison farm, held a squirrel tasting for Britains Guild of Food Writers, finding their lovely flavor tasted of the nuts they nibbled. At a later event, however, she found the flavor disappointing, with a greasy texture and unpleasant taste, presumably reflecting these squirrels diet."
What is the ROI on the interstate highway system?
Dirk | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:59 pm | #
You won't believe it but here goes:
The US Interstate Highway System: 40 Year Report
The Dwight D. Eisenhower System of Interstate and Defense Highways is in place and celebrating its 40th anniversary, must surely be the best investment a nation ever made. Consider this: \tIt has enriched the quality of life for virtually every American. \tIt has saved the lives of at least 187,000 people. \tIt has prevented injuries to nearly 12 million people. \tIt has returned more than $6 in economic productivity for each $1 it cost. \tIt has positioned the nation for improved international competitiveness. \tIt has permitted the cherished freedom of personal mobility to flourish. \tIt has enhanced international security. It is not an exaggeration, but a simple statement of fact, that the interstate highway system is an engine that has driven 40 years of unprecedented prosperity and positioned the United States to remain the world's pre-eminent power into the 21st century. While it is not typically thought of in this way, the system is in reality a gift from one group of people --- highway users --- to the nation as a whole, which has reaped a gain of at least $6 in benefit for each $1 spent in construction. And that's just the beginning --- there are additional benefits such as higher employment rates and greater economic opportunity that are simply beyond quantification. Fortunately, the group of people who paid for the interstate highway system is sufficiently large that it's difference from the nation as a whole is virtually without distinction. But it is a worthy difference to keep in mind as a backdrop for public policy deliberations over future funding of highways. This report provides an assessment of the manifold benefits of the interstate highway system. Research by leading transportation authorities and standard statistical methods have been used to estimate the impacts of the interstate highway system. The imperative for upgrading the interstate highway system and other super-highways is described and shown to be readily affordable within the capability of present highway user fee revenue. The interstate highway system has contributed mightily to the economic growth and quality of life in America. The interstates and other super-highways will continue to contribute to economic growth and improved quality of life if necessary investments are made. In large measure, the interstate highway system has democratized mobility in the United States, providing virtually all Americans with the ability to move quickly to any destination within their communities and to travel throughout the nation, inexpensively, and at whatever time or date they desire.----Like I said you aren't even willing to entertin the possibility otherwise you'd have never brought it up. Spare me the "rebuttal." I've only heard it several dozen times over the last few decades.
IRS agents soften heart for delinquent taxpayers
Sum up Jas Jain in 5 words?
Res ipsa loquitur
(sorry, Jas, I couldn't resist)
WRAPUP 1-EU faces deepening energy crunch over Russian gas
WRAPUP 1-EU faces deepening energy crunch over Russian gas
| Markets
| Reuters
It's unrealistic to expect some taxpayers to make timely payments in this economy, Shulman said. However, he cautioned that those seeking help will have to demonstrate their inability to pay. Those who fail to file tax returns, or who simply ignore collection notices, will not be eligible for help, he said
YouTube - "Goodnight, Sweetheart" (Russ Columbo, 1931)
we throw the kitchen sink at it, and then we what?
throw a Grenada, but in the ME...
shalom.
Curious writes:
OT
Anybody watching Japanese stocks tonight? Several exporters--Canon (+9.4%), Nikon (+16%), Olympus (+7.8%), Honda (+9%)-- are climbing steeply on above average volume. For these stocks, it's the first time I've seen higher prices and higher volume in some time.
Totally amazing that equity buyers think they can see across the credit-collapse valley. My bear market vision focused last week on NAZ 1950, SPY 110 and DJI 10250, up 20%, but I like U$D/JPY leverage from 93 to 100 best.
Lucifer,
You must be one of those guys who my friends & I look at in a bar & say "There's not enough alcohol in the whole world for THAT."
"Did someone say Treasury Bath !!"
Is that Lucifer or Broward Horne?
Good night all.
Talk about showing your ass Skier Suffers Exposure - January 6, 2009
one hot chick
lol
On the topic of government spending... some might remember a few charts I posted up with the T-bills issued. I'm waiting now for the Dec. update but it would appear that the Treasury will need to roll or pay $1.625T in 2009 that was issued before Dec. 1, 2008.
On the plus side, net issuance had really tapered off in November so hopefully, there won't be a massive surge.
Dirk writes:
"What is the ROI on the interstate highway system? The Hoover Dam? The Golden Gate Bridge? Education?"
What is the ROI on the California State Government?
Dirk at 859 wrote
Dirk writes:
Is not government spending near the top of the list of misallocated spending? More will fix that?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:42 pm | #
What is the ROI on the interstate highway system? The Hoover Dam? The Golden Gate Bridge? Education?
Dirk, my guess would be not that the hwy system wasnt a good investment
but that the gov has wasted far more money in other dubious expenditures
my beef with the gov, and in part this is in harmony with Rob Dawgs aversion to more debt...
is that we currently pay out about half a trillion dollars in interest payments on the us debt
in the old days we paid almost all of that to "ourselves"
today the chinese and japanese own around half of all us debt followed , i guess by saudi ?
mock turtle - it's held by Japanese, Chinese, and a whole assortment of smaller Asian countries. The caribbean bank complex is in there too if I remember correctly.
I used to have a handly link showing public ownership by nation.
Is that Lucifer or Broward Horne?
I have to admit, I already came to the same monetary conclusion regarding women.
But luckily, I haven't to implement like Lucifer.
Looks like a misallocation of capital to me, man.
my beef with the gov, and in part this is in harmony with Rob Dawgs aversion to more debt...
mock turtle | 01.06.09 - 9:16 pm | #
Just to be clear. I am not adverse to debt. I am scared to death of more debt in these circumstances.
Mock Turtle- Ha! Found it buried in an old spreadsheet...
Foreign ownership of public US debt: http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
Mr Sparkle
check, thanx
wow UK beats oil exporting countries...news to me
Mock,
Just remeber what J. Paul Getty said:
If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.
Res ipsa loquitur
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 01.06.09 - 8:52 pm | #
citizen ee,
I think an important factor driving US oil production is restrictions on drilling in certain areas. Interestingly, per Wikipedia, "The 28 January 1969 blowout from a Unocal rig which spilled 3 million US gallons (11 million liters) of petroleum of the coast of Santa Barbara, California, has been cited as influencing drilling bans for offshore California and Florida." That coincides rather neatly with the peak of the trend line you linked.
Paul Getty had it wrong :
If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the tax payer's problem.
Popeye
good news...i dont owe the bank...at all! no debt
kinda...
except my share of the tens of trillions the county owes and for which us taxpayers are on the hook
...but a simple statement of fact, that the interstate highway system is an engine that has driven 40 years of unprecedented prosperity and positioned the United States to remain the world's pre-eminent power into the 21st century. While it is not typically thought of in this way, the system is in reality a gift from one group of people --- highway users --- to the nation as a whole, which has reaped a gain of at least $6 in benefit for each $1 spent in construction.
Haha, I hope these aren't nominal comparisons... from the inflation calculator:
What cost $1 in 1967 would cost $6.15 in 2007.
bh: I think you are finding out the less you give a damn, the more women will line up to take care of you. Funny how expensive that lesson was for me. Funny also how women screech about it, but I have the evidence from my own experience now, so the sound os distant screeching bothers me less and less.
lucifer: it's not that hard to get it free, or have them pay... the resources are out there. Start with amazon. Then find the community and they'll get you locked on.
It's going to be really interesting how what's coming is going to make "dorky dudes," "great guys," and "good men" so much more attractive, after the last 25 years of being treated with contempt by modern, western women. Unfortunately for the worst offenders, they are now in their late 40s and single.
Marriage is a really bad deal for men. The only men I know getting married are younger first timers... but most all the men I know have NO plans to either marry or marry again. Maybe if the economy really tanks, marriage will be a good deal for men once again.
This alone spells demise of the world as we have known it.
I saw her dancin there by the record machine
I knew she must a been about seventeen
The beat was goin strong
Playin my favorite song
An I could tell it wouldnt be long
Till she was with me, yeah me, singin
I love rock n roll
So put another dime in the jukebox, baby
I love rock n roll
So come an take your time an dance with me
That will be $200 an hour and don't tell me about how back in the day you never wore a condom.
citizen Kung Fu Panda | 01.06.09 - 9:27 pm | #
Uhhh, not a student of history? Ban went into place in 1981 (California) and expanded in 1985...
Mock,
China needs us as much as we need them. That's all I'm suggesting. On the other hand, they might loose some inscruitability if we start screaming hyper-inflation out of one side of our collective mouth while we are asking them for another loan out of the other. .... if you catch my grift ... errr drift.
ac
i grew up a few blocks from a stretch of the erie canal
never ceased to amaze me as a kid, all the century old opulent ruins along its path and the absence of all that much, away from the great lakes, the hudson and the canals
Lucifer,
Just make sure to get a vas or wear a raincoat so you don't further muck up the gene pool.
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
Talk about showing your ass
Hhhmmmmm...can you tell me just what's going on in that picture?
On second thought, nevermind....
Per Bloomberg, Japan is up 2% due to Obama's proclamation that we'll have trillion dollar deficits for "years". Good thing we wont have to pay that money back.
mock turtle writes:
i grew up a few blocks from a stretch of the erie canal
theme music:
YouTube - Bruce Springsteen - Erie Canal
Jeez, Daewg, what the sea of blue for? Eeek.
Basel - will pick up in a min.
C
...can you tell me just what's going on in that picture?
that's bishop O'malley and jake the choir boy on a mission of higher learning gone awry.
Keynesian Meme...
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=schools_of_thought
It's enough to make a Dawg choke!
ho ho!
Skier Suffers Exposure
Man left dangling upside down, pantsless after Vail lift mishap
JANUARY 6--In a bizarre incident that will surely lead to litigation (or an out-of-court settlement), a skier at Colorado's ritzy Vail resort was left dangling upside down and pantsless from a chairlift last Thursday morning. The January 1 mishap apparently occurred after the male skier, 48, and a child boarded a high-speed lift in Vail's Blue Sky Basin.http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2009/0106091vail1.html
Let me address that comment by cKFP more completely, as it is so incredibly wrong that it boggles:
I think an important factor driving US oil production is restrictions on drilling in certain areas. Interestingly, per Wikipedia, "The 28 January 1969 blowout from a Unocal rig which spilled 3 million US gallons (11 million liters) of petroleum of the coast of Santa Barbara, California, has been cited as influencing drilling bans for offshore California and Florida." That coincides rather neatly with the peak of the trend line you linked.
citizen Kung Fu Panda | 01.06.09 - 9:27 pm | #
The factual problem with that malarkey is that the offshore ban was not insituted until 1981.
From a Houston Chronicle story in 2008:
For 27 years, Congress has had moratoriums in place that bar drilling off the east or west coasts and portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Congress has had to act each year to renew the drilling bans.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Now it's a math problem...(hint in cast story problems are just not your thing - subtract 27 from 2008)
Scary, commodity supply destruction at the bottom of a cycle.
By 2012
Oil: $200
Copper: $6
Gold: $1,500
Bailout Cost Exceeds All American Wars
By Bethany Stotts | December 18, 2008
From CNS.com:
The total value of the bailouts undertaken by the federal government in 2008 now exceeds the combined cost of every major war the United States has ever engaged in, according to a comparison of war costs calculated by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and the value of the bailouts as calculated by Bloomberg News or Bianco Research.
According to CRS, all major U.S. wars (including such events as the American Revolution, the War of 1812, the Civil War, the Spanish American War, World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, but not the invasion of Panama or the Kosovo War), cost a total of $7.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted 2008 dollars.
According to Bloomberg, the federal government has made commitments worth a total of $8.5 trillion in the bailouts of 2008. That includes actual expenditures as well as loan and asset guarantees.
>JANUARY 6--In a bizarre incident that will surely lead to litigation (or an out-of-court settlement), a skier at Colorado's ritzy Vail resort was left dangling upside down and pantsless from a chairlift last Thursday morning. The January 1 mishap apparently occurred after the male skier, 48, and a child boarded a high-speed lift in Vail's Blue Sky
Any 48-year-old person who would get on a high-speed ski lift with a child and wearing no pants deserves just what he got.
High-speed ski lifts are for normal people. Perverts should take the other ski lifts.
What is the ROI on the California State Government?
Comrade V | 01.06.09 - 9:15 pm | #
Dont live in Cal so dont follow it that closely, always thought it absurd that you folks would elect the Govenator, but who am I to talk, split my time between Ohiio and Chicago, registered in Ohio. Blago and Taft and toss in a Blackwell up until 06. From what I understand like most other states to generous on pensions and just about any defined bene plan is screwed right now, that includes GM, SS (less so), Life Ins companies. Most corp plans (and I think state and local) have assumed rates of return of about 8%. Trailing 10yr returns on S&P near zero, and frankly dont look great going forward, long term govies well below 4%, CRE about to puke big time. How do you make 8% with a 60/40 equity/fixed asset allocation. Oh you go with some "alternative investments" Say pvt equity, well how would you like to be a limited partner of the 3 headed dog right now? So thats a huge part of the Cal problem. then an over active prision system. Toss in usual corruption (less in Cal than Ohio or Il). However, some of it is fairly high ROI, most notably education. However big part of the problem is prop 13, even for CRE, ends up with a super weird distribution of tax burden.
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
"Talk about showing your ass"
Thanks for the clarification, Credit.
I thought maybe it was some sort of unorthodox enema stunt...you know, someone trying to make the Guiness Book of World Records (probably an unemployed Wall Street exec).
M Faber on Bloomberg. Always entertaining. His trade for '09 - Short long dated US Treasuries...
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Faber%20Says%20He'd%20Favor%20Industrial%20Commodities%20Over%20Gold&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asf
Dirk,
Just an observation. If any pension or insurance plan assumed 8% rates of return as far back as the mid-to-late 1990s, then why didn't they buy 8%+ 30 year Treasury bonds? I assume it's because our financial system exists to bilk everyone out of their $$$ via selling them "investments", conventional or not. Just skimming some off the top while the S&P shows a negative return for over a decade.
Each US well cost twice as much in 2007 as 2006.
US drilling outlays soar to $226.4 billion in 2007
- Oil & Gas Journal