Do you think we're going to see YoY sales rises some time in the first 2 quarters due to liquidations? I am not sure how many units are parked inside the supply chain but dealer distress has to be showing here.
Dr. Hamilton points out that the sales decline in recent months was very different from earlier in 2008 - CR
The OEMs & their suppliers are really scrambling to understand what's happening too - in autos, appliances, lawn & garden, you name it. In the last six months I've spent way more time & energy trying to get 'demand estimates' & 'forecasts' for the folks I work for than at any time in my previous 25 years. I'm not doing this for my curiosity - they are asking... "WTF is going on out there?" What can you say? "It's a shitstorm... put that in your report to the BOD."
Chris Bangle is the second motherf**ker up against the wall (after Paulson) when I take over. What that douchebag has done to BMW is nothing short of a tragishamockery.
Context over dogma? How about my f**king e30 tire iron over your goddamned head?
A bit like the anthrax attacks versus 9/11, I worry a bit that the massive oil shock of the past few years will be overlooked as a key component of our current crisis.
It already feels like a fading memory, while the housing/credit crisis gets continued attention.
Re the peak oil vs. speculation argument, I suspect it was some of both, with the final/extreme gains being mostly speculation. I never saw the two explanations as mutually exclusive.
When the global economy (I'm resisting the urge to type "if") regains it's footing, we may face price swings even more extreme than 2008.
dryfly writes: \t"It's a shitstorm... put that in your report to the BOD." dryfly | 01.07.09 - 1:41 am | # ----- I think I lived through the Sept->Dec 2008 era, and at this point in the game, I'm not really sure how I will explain it to my children. Credit Markets seized up completely. From that point, liquidity evaporated within days and weeks of the initial blip(s), and from that point on, we discovered that we had 30 foot wide pipes for 1 oz water/minute.
That's what happens when demand gets pushed forward. Short term greed vs. long term pain. Now we got to figure out how to pay for it all. Never mind the gubmint gonna bail everybody out. Watch out for that cliff below . . .
//Lots of money, convertible sportscar, aviator's leather jacket, expensive hair. Probably early 40s to late 50s, financially successful, spends a lot of time at the gym, white or white-wannabe.//
Attitude.. about right.. money.. maybe in the near future..but age is way off.. try 20 years younger... I was not even born when the last person stepped on the moon.. heck I was born after the last soviet automated sample mission returned lunar samples.
//Probably could not get it up for you.//
I could easily get 2-3 times in an hour with at least 45 minutes of f**king.. I should know.. I pay by the hour..
//Optional secret / fantasy life huffing inhalants and riding the train down at the local men's bath house.//
Sadly no.. being gay would have made my life easier though.. I like my t*ts and a** and c**t and mouth..
//Probably has some other bad habits like aggressive driving, stimulant abuse and weirdly self-destructive tax evasion / financial crime.//
Nah..
//Be glad he is self-isolating. Many of these types marry some doofus-girl who doesn't know what a wretch he is until she finds out she has herpes or that he's lost all the retirement money to his compulsive gambling.//
I would not marry a woman.. what is the point? I want to enjoy life, not live at the mercy of a psychotic aging hag.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 1:03 am |
I appreciate your being beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. However, I must point out that I hijacked this thread in order to rail incoherently regarding Chris Bangle. If you are prepared to join in my spittle flecked invective towards his leaden hand upon the fair thigh of our most favored autos then, please, proceed. Otherwise, please, keep it in the previous thread.
You might think that this question is strange.. but think about it.. why would anyone in cerebrus think they could run a car making company.. don't you see the problem??
Besides, isn't there a slight chance that Ford, Chrysler, GM operations in North America survive longer than Triad 3 North American operations? Maybe it really does make sense for Japanese companies continue a losing enterprise such as having plants in the US... especially if those Japanese companies are going to get taxed at higher rates (even if they moved to lower rated states recently?).
I'm not smart and not an inside man so I don't know what I'm talking about.
No.. just change the design a little and call it american. The best US heavy lift rocket launcher family (Atlas 5) has rusian engines (RD-180), but you don't see anyone saying that Atlas 5 is russian.
"lucifer,
Because you would fire a bunch of American's doing the design job and then would lose justification for a bailout?
YLSP | 01.07.09 - 2:14 am | #"
Why would anyone take out a loan to buy a car they don't really like when they know even worse times are coming? Toyota cars used to be know for reliability and economy, now they are as bloated as anything Detroit builds and more expensive to boot. Chrysler used to set trends, but now the only unique cars are either being axed, or homogenized, or priced out of reach for most buyers.
Hell, even BMW and Mercedes Benz are making ugly cars. Why risk more debt now... just to own an ugly car?
The Depression is globally epidemic, so nothing is OT anymore. So...
An article by Jim Jubak at MSNBC, about how Russia's precarious financial economy threatens the world financial system, a la their 1998 defaults, which helped bring down LTCM.
Well, we can always bail them out again, along with everybody else.
Have you guys ever heard of Conrad Zuse.. look at his computer designs (in the 1930-1940s)and compare them both with the equivalent US/ British designs (decimal).
He had the first binary, programmable, 64 bit, rack system/ solid state computer in the 1940s.. in Nazi germany.. ok he used relays instead of transistors.. but his design is much more like all computer designs since the late 1940s.
Hyundai can built a V-6 sonanta [2006-2009]in the USA(240 hp, 0-60 in less than 7 seconds, reliability better than honda accord) and sell it for less than 16k new.. and make a profit..
lucifer,
Is it really fair to compare a mass produced item like a car to an item like a rocket motor? Even now I bet Chryler makes more cars in one day than all of the Atlas V's made since that program was started.
I concede your point however... I'm not sure sales of rocket motors are comparable to cars. No one flips out when there is a YoY drop or rise on those... "Oh my god... we sold... 3 more units than last year... 300% up YoY!".
When the media starts making distortions like that, craaaash!
Why is our government bailing out and attemping to take over / run a bunch of American corporations?
Same question. It's because they are stupid. They didn't anticipate the current state of the economy.
YLSP | 01.07.09 - 2:13 am | #
Stupid? Nope, much more insidious than stupid. Plan on schedule. Meeting tomorrow, as someone said earlier. And they know WTF is going on. Also, feel the velocity of money slowing here too.
The solution for automakers is to scale back production by 50% and turn out high quality units for less money; yah do that, and you create greater fucking demand...
The solution for automakers is to scale back production by 50% and turn out high quality units for less money; yah do that, and you create greater fucking demand...
69.6% of the respondents said they were "directly affected" by the financial crisis, according to a specialized survey of over 2,000 respondents in 18 districts and counties in Beijing released by the Beijing Social Facts and Public Opinion Survey Center. //
Isn't the 69.6 % figure a bit odd.. I mean what is the chance that the economic downturn would affect exactly 69.6 % of beijing residents (at the time of the survey)? A palindrome..
lucifer,
Seems like people here have an intolerance problem sometimes... guess you are one of those lactosy people that make others sick. Per se its not really your problem, but if I got sick because of you I would curse you...
I like Michael Moore. Conversely after Dr Gupta attempted to attack his credibility and was proven woefully wrong on most counts I have a problem with him becoming the SG.
After reading this very well sourced article I feel Obama is again choosing form over substance.
Harvards Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland have published a paper outlining how long the recession will be and what it will entail. Their projections are based on what happened to 22 economies that went through financial crises since 1929.
Conclusions:
Housing downturns last six years so were still at least three years away from bottoming out.
Unemployment increases around 7% after a major financial crisis; hitting its peak four years after the crisis. November jobless numbers 6.7%. That means unemployment will hit at least 13% if thats where you start measuring from. Also this is based on the tweaked unemployment stats which do not include the under-employed or those no longer collecting benefits.
Stock declines last three and a half years and total 55%. If true, that means DJIA would be under 6500 (which is the number I have in our office pool).
Government debt = 86% of GDP - or $12 trillion. Someone’s finally starting to tell the truth about the “recession” | Blown Mortgage
After reading this very well sourced article I feel Obama is again choosing form over substance.
anon | 01.07.09 - 3:08 am | #
Well, let's get used to it. I doubt much will change over the next four years, including trillion dollar deficits, skyrocketing economic disruption (take your pick in/de), demagoguery from legislative sold out sons of bitches, ad nauseum.
Everything will change over the next 4 years. I hate I had the audacity to hope and grab for the life line being offered. My tribe is getting smaller and very local.
I have always wondered how our military leadership will allow the country they protect to be destroyed from the inside.
Society as the drive through window with an all female staff accepting monopoly money and needing to look at the register to make simple change. Plus the weather sucks.
Don't worry, our dear leaders have made sure that our top military leadership is filled with photogenic media savvy yes men who can arrange the best photo ops in the world.
"I have always wondered how our military leadership will allow the country they protect to be destroyed from the inside."
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
CLALLAM COUNTY...
MASON COUNTY...
UNTIL 945 AM PST THURSDAY.
AT 938 PM PST VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR WERE OCCURING ACROSS CLALLAM AND MASON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS IN
THE AREA. SMALL STREAMS IN THE AFFECTED AREA WILL RISE RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
LOWLANDS...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH THE
RAINIEST SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES RECEIVING UP TO 20 INCHES.
Have you ever compared the occupation of Japan (post 1945) under MacArthur and our current problems in Iraq?
Why did MacArthur succeed? maybe living half of his life in asia, treating the defeated with dignity and pragmatism might have helped him..
Of course today we do not like people like him.. too egotistic, bad team players, too independent..
Today we prefer people who have no backbone and do what their political masters say.. even if it is suicidal in the long term. If by chance they have any spine, we demote/ fire them..
The Willamette River is prone to periodic floods. The great winter flood of 1861 destroyed several towns, including Linn City, Champoeg, and Scottsburg. The flood of 1894 seems to be the first flood well documented with photographs: one such famous picture depicts men thigh-deep in water in downtown Portland, pointing shotguns at decoy ducks as they float by in the flood waters.
Taking a stand as a man is crucial. Right or wrong you have to pick a side.
The principles you have laid as the bedrock of your soul defines your character. Taking the other side of an argument to prove a point is futile unless you are reflecting who you are as a man. Being polite and well reasoned in presenting the unpopular viewpoint is also a key ingredient in making changes around you.
I understand the posturing and anonymity allowed by the internet and have fallen prey to shouting into the abyss. Only I regret the loss of rationale and control when I am done.
You have dropped some gems of demonstrated intellect. I'll judge you by the comments where your voice was strong and not strident.
I am unable to compare any component of WW II to our present predicament. We stopped being the good guys years ago.
FYI, I made a chart of demand in Ventura County, Ca and then compared it to current supply. Currently 90% of contingent/pendings are below 659k but 44.6% of inventory is above this price.
"Currently 90% of contingent/pendings are below 659k but 44.6% of inventory is above this price."
Pre foreclosure, short sales or taking the home off the market for a VERY long time. Horrible to have a home you paid over 659k for and know there isn't a market. Demographics don't lie.
I used to say numbers don't lie but then the NBER sent out one round of lies too many.
Very true anon. Earlier I posted the preliminary numbers of closed sales and REO and Short Sales as a percentage of closed sales.
For both Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley the percentage is hovering around 70%. I perused the remaining 30% for Ventura and a lot of it was either investors, trust & probate sales, vacant properties or relocations.
A bit late, but regarding asian engines: in the early 90s a number of Chryslers (Lebarons, Dodge Caravans, Stealth) used a Mitsubishi engine. I'd be surprised if similar re-use is not happening today, and in both directions.
what a surprise, people realizing no one needs a new car!
IMO most new car purchases are impulse rather than need, and people deciding to neglect the depreciation factor which is likely to get larger with new technologies around the corner.
NC, I was just about to say the same thing! A car is transportation. One car looks much the same as the others (can anyone tell me objectively what it means to say that a "coupe is sportier than a sedan? Why? Because it has two doors rather than four? That makes absolutely no sense.) They last for roughly 10-12 years. Then you replace them. I love transportation. I do not take it for granted that I can jump into my transportation and get to a wildlife area on an obscure road at 5 am. The car is just a servant, not a master. That's an essential truth that we discover when times are bad - how easy it is to not buy a new car.
New safety rules for children's clothes have stores in a fit
Barring a reprieve, regulations set to take effect next month could force thousands of clothing retailers and thrift stores to throw away trunkloads of children's clothing.
They'll all have to go to the landfill," said Adele Meyer, executive director of the National Assn. of Resale and Thrift Shops.
Cynthia Broockman, who owns two consignment stores and a thrift shop in Virginia, recently stopped accepting children's products for resale. That raised the ire of a man who was trying to sell his son's castoffs there and had not heard of the new rules.
"I think it's not understood by people how sweeping and far-reaching this is," she said. "The ripples that are going to go forth from this are just astonishing."...
For both Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley the percentage is hovering around 70%. I perused the remaining 30% for Ventura and a lot of it was either investors, trust & probate sales, vacant properties or relocations. Effective Demand | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 4:09 am | #
I predicted this for Ventura (and San Diego) a few years ago when it was hereasy. Thank you for your efforts tracking the actual data. I'd be particularly interested in finding out how many of all prices are relo transactions. I imagine both Amgen and Countrywide upper tier employees have these clauses in the agreements. It is important as you note to remember VenCo is within 200 or fewer transactions than a practical minimum just due to deaths, divorces, relocations, etc.
I feeling a Yugo in our future. hong konger | 01.07.09 - 4:36 am | #
If you mean Yugoslavia, then yes, that is a possible future for the US. Other than the BosWash Corridor most of the nation deep down belives they'd be better off without the rest of the country.
IMO most new car purchases are impulse rather than need, and people deciding to neglect the depreciation factor which is likely to get larger with new technologies around the corner. NC | 01.07.09 - 5:01 am | #
Yes and no. Interesting factoid, autos with built in nav command no to negative premiums compared to the same vehicle not so encumbered. Technology is advancing too fast for these one more thing to go wrong gadgets to deserve any premium. Then my real point. Residual value is llike any other investment. There's no reason to buy a 2 year old Honda Civic for instance compared to new. The price isn't justified compared to financing, warranty, choice and condition of new. Now a Ridgeline, if 15mpg is your thing is a screaming deal used. If you are a paid subscriber to Consumer Reports tthey have a page of expected depreciation. A 2005 Lexus SC 430 is 62% off MSRP and 75% or more off new equivalent.
....even with a couple teenage boys I had forgotten the love affair with the car. The last time I bought a new vehicle was 15-years ago - and I'll probably be buried in it.
This area (outside of Vegas) seems to be the last stop for many vehicles before a salvage yard. No smog requirements here - anything can be registered - no sales tax charges for registering - so, cars are cheap - DIRT cheap.
This area (outside of Vegas) seems to be the last stop for many vehicles before a salvage yard. No smog requirements here - anything can be registered - no sales tax charges for registering - so, cars are cheap - DIRT cheap. Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:09 am | #
Arrived in a $20,000 car and left in a $500,000 bus...
...mof, one of the reasons I bought this place was to license a hot rod I owned - Cal wouldn't let me drive it on the road. That car got me into more trouble.....well, maybe it was actually the booze that caused the problems...LOL
luciferOk here is a quick question for car buffs..
Why don't American car manufacturers just copy Asian car designs?
That is simple, the Asian and American car manufacturers serve two different markets, which arise out their respective marketing strategy's circa 1970 (forty years ago!)
Ergo, the big three bought into planned obsolescence at the same time the Japanese car makers were trying to overcome public perception that their cars were crap.
This American cars are generally crappier than Asian cars because they are designed to be crappier, because the way you make money with their market segment is by selling a crappy car to your customers every two to five years. Asians make their money by selling less crappy cars to their customers every five to ten years.
So yeah the big three could make better cars, but they would sell less of them and thus make less money.
- Why pretend women are good at math and they could be great mathematicians.. they are not.. maybe a few but nowhere near the % in men.
Um... with mathematics at the high end (and the low end) males are over represented, but don't kid yourself, at the median men and women have about the same ability to understand math. Which is to say, they operate on the level of a poorly trained monkey if that.
...mof, one of the reasons I bought this place was to license a hot rod I owned - Cal wouldn't let me drive it on the road. Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:17 am | # Cal won't let you wipe your butt without an Environmental Impact Report. That's why businesses are fleeing to Vegas and points elsewhere.
Remember a couple months ago as the meltdown started and Congress shut up and looked ashen white after that meeting with the Treasury Sec.
Do you think the future ol' Hank laid out to our representatives was as bad as we are currently experiencing, or might did he have sugar coated it, or maybe he knew all along where we are headed and told them the truth.
2 of 3 could explain that stunned silence coming out of that conference room prior to OKing all that bailout money.
Would be interesting to ask some Congressperson who was there.
....I'd never heard of The Bonus Army before - nor the march - nor the Army killing the civilians.....shameful. Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:40 am | #
The marches were real, the wikipedia entry not so much. Just keep in mind the cause of the protests was the feeling that WW-I vets were being denied a benefit they thought themselves entitled. Reneging on entitlements where real or imagined is dangerous territory for a government that wishes to remain in power.
As a Vet, I realize the FedGov has some serious problems in regards to Veteran's Health & welfare. As an old business owner I also realize that the FedGov is SO INEPT, that it's surprising it's lasted THIS long....
Any folk who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. I read this aphorism many years ago. Took a picture of it. It is chiseled into the edifice of a building in Washington D.C.
--
Americanized Indian CROOK Ramalinga Raju of Satyam
He admitted to falsifying records. With a name like Satyam, meaning truth, you can be sure that a liar is at the helm. I have been warning for years that Americanized Crooks and dopes are running India. The whole Indian system is a bad copy of American system imported by Americanized Indian dopes some of whom get the opportunity to become crooks. Just to refresh your memory, Americanized Indian dopes exist to make born-and-bred American dopes look good. And born-and-bred American dopes are pretty bad.
In the Era of Evildoers, begun in America under Greenspan and followed by Bush and Bernanke, Crooks and dopes have multiplied all over the world. India would prove to be the biggest victim of this American inspired era of financial fraud. Only dopes have been bullish on the Indian Scam market in recent years. Hell, we even have a brokerage called India Bulls.
--
"Any folk who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. I read this aphorism many years ago. Took a picture of it. It is chiseled into the edifice of a building in Washington D.C. Forget which one."
Comrade Volker the Viking,
In the Age of Propaganda how many people even know anything close to the true history? Both, the quality and quantity of knowledge of history is a serious problem.
IGNORANCE OF HISTORY IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST CAUSE BEHIND BORN-AND-BRED AMERICAN DOPES.
The fact that Americans are ignorant of history, more than any other population in the civilized world, is undisputed. You can ask history professors in the US. America is doomed because Americans are doped due to the absence of knowledge of true and DETAILED history. General history is a useless guide.
--
"War is a Racket by Smedley Butler who came out and supported The Bonus Army. a time Medal of Honor winner."
tg is a born & bred dope in a,
"War is a Racket" of bankers and financiers in the modern ear. It began with the control of the governments, England first and America later, by the moneybags so that they can wage wars for their profits. Rothschilds became known as geniuses at profiting from wars. Success breeds excess!
RTO, in the few narrow fields where I may claim real competence, I generally find encyclopedia (or wikipedia) articles and abstracts only fair to poor, with a few exceptions. And this with no regard to the lovely CVs the authors no doubt rightly claim for themselves.
The overall sharpness of your personal observations here left me wholly unprepared for such an aggressive defense of online encyclopedia entries.
There are lots of locally bred crooks in India, especially political crooks, but Americanized Crooks were considered kosher, or better. Made in America label has a cachet in India.
But it beats basically all the school texts of American history we grew up over the last 50 years, at least in elementary/high school.
There are people here who write about active military on American soil as if it is some gigantic and unthinkable plot. Actually, the use of the military in various civil contexts isn't really that unusual, or even all that far in the past. Though not quite parallel, Reagan attempted to use military air traffic controllers as strikebreakers, for example (the 'attempted' is because military air traffic controllers were completely unsuited to perform the job in basically all cases).
Checking facts is important, and when the facts are in error, one should concede the point, or at least explain why the error occurred - which may mean that the source of the 'facts' is inaccurate. wikipedia is very open to challenge - and anyone can do so. Though that process can be flawed, it does exist.
But simply claiming something is prima facie inaccurate because it is found in wikipedia is a cheap form of argument. Refuting/correcting wikipedia? Can be seen as advancing the state of human knowledge (or a waste of time, in the eyes of others). Simply claiming that something found in wikipedia, especially knowledge that some may find disquieting or disturbing to their comfortable world view, can be dismissed without in turn providing any references, is at best lazy, at worst actively dishonest.
MacArthur's, Patton's, and Eisenhower's role (notice which of two famed Republican military commanders became president in 1952) in the Bonus March are not exactly obscure. Why do you think MacArthur spent years stationed outside of the continental U.S. afterwards? It wasn't a reward.
Lucifer and Jas, re: women, have you not been paying attention? Remember how many millennia women were barred from most everything but the home. The trend is a friend to women - they are outpacing men in most professions and are in general "drawing even - or ahead " in measures of health, education, sports, authority. Already it feels as though you two have fallen behind, that you are waving your arms and shouting, "look at me, look at me, I'm still back here." Rational men and women have moved on. But, as consolation, you (Lucifer, I think it was you), still have your 400 bimbos. Whatever.
Why do you think MacArthur spent years stationed outside of the continental U.S. afterwards? It wasn't a reward.
rent_to_own | 01.07.09 - 8:10 am | #
Wah? Lemmesee, commander in Phillipines, shared power during war with Nimitz, ruled as military governor of Japan, implemented modern Japanese state, commanded in Korea...
I would have fired him too if I were Truman.
But punishment for role in Bonus caper? I'm inclined to doubt it absent any record otherwise.
Truman once met with Marcos and as they passed a photo of Mac Truman said, "And of course you know thisman, he's God."
Marcos replied, " To mnay people in my country he is."
Just another historical tidbit -
'Patton and the Bonus March of 1932
One of the first federal officers to arrive in Washington, D.C., was Major George S. Patton. His cavalry troops met up with infantry at the Ellipse, near the White House. Patton and the federal troops, equipped with gas masks, bayonets and sabers, marched up Pennsylvania Avenue, firing gas grenades and charging and subduing the angry crowd. Later that night, Patton and the federal troops cleared out the marchers' camp in Anacostia, with some tents and shacks catching fire in the process. By the following morning, most marchers had left Washington, but the incident left bitter memories and affected Patton deeply. He called it the "most distasteful form of service" and later wrote several papers on how federal troops could restore order quickly with the least possible bloodshed.' Meet Amazing Americans
Interesting note about Patton - wonder if anyone still reads any of his papers on the subject of quelling disorder with federal troops? After all, they would be a couple of generations old at this point. On the other hand, Patton was a very forward thinking military figure.
ADP employment number -693K, their numbers have been consistently to high (not negative enough) in recent months, although they say they have changed their methodology a bit to narrrow the differences. Could be very ugly on Friday.
Here you go, you glorious anti-intellectual bastardos. (The "o" takes the edge off, doesn't it?)
"If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim squirrels must be shot in the head; a body shot renders them impossible to skin or eat. (You want to get rid of the head in any event, as squirrel brains have been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the human form of mad cow disease.)"
Well, perhaps you will grant that wiki entries are frequently a reflection of the most widely-held opinions in any given subject area. Surely the events in D.C. aren't really so easily or tidily described, nor virtue and the high ground quite so exclusively delineated? I can't claim the necessary familiarity, but antecedent probabilities and some familiarity with human behavior in the aggregate tell me there's more - possibly much more - of interest in source documents, journals, collected letters.
As to RD, he's so often delivered, for me at least, the unexpected and sardonic 'take' on topics, that I tend to look for his posts.
Berenson used to talk of history as 'the agreed-upon lie', and admired the Chinese proclivity for producing annals and not histories, that is, to make an effort to relate what happened without attempting to touch upon why. He'd have loved Reuters headline writers. ;0)
have you read of this recently published book on Patton's death?
"Controversial General Patton was murdered to cover up secret deal between U.S. and U.S.S.R., new book claims
By Barry Wigmore
Last updated at 1:18 AM on 22nd December 2008
George Patton, the most successful American general in the Second World War, was murdered on the orders of the U.S. Army top brass, a book has alleged. Patton was threatening to shame U.S. leaders by revealing a secret deal between America and the Soviet Union that cost 19,000 GI lives, it is claimed.
Military historian Robert Wilcox spent ten years investigating Patton's death on December 21, 1945 - 63 years ago yesterday - following a car crash in Mannheim, Germany, 12 days earlier."
Your response is totally predictable and so is your bias. There are more women in college than men in America for a long time now, no?
SO, PLEASE DON'T KEEP HARPING ON THE HISTORICAL DISADVANTAGE. PLEASE LIST FIELDS WHERE WOMEN HAVE EXCELLED COMPARED TO MEN.
We do know areas where blacks excel over whites, dont we?
Why have white Jews excelled over white Christians, both men and women, for soooooooooo long and the advantage has only been kept growing?
Why are white Jewish women doing better than white Christian men in economic and political competition? I hope that as a seeming feminist it is not a news to you.
Only interested in observable facts and not your excuses,
Patton kept unit integrity and command structure of German POW's intact. He said they would be needed for what was coming. Of course, he explained that they were cutting and stockpiling firewood for the coming winter as well as other civil duties.
"Military historian Robert Wilcox spent ten years investigating Patton's death on December 21, 1945 - 63 years ago yesterday - following a car crash in Mannheim, Germany, 12 days earlier."
The story is in the Daily Mail. No sources other than the author of the book. No evidence that the paper tried to investigate.
ADP revised their methodology to produce a more negative number, but -700k is what a few models were spitting out. Wait for the Jan.09 number that gets released in Feb. Jan is the only month of the year the BLS birth/death plug is significantly negative. We're having a pool on whether the number hits -1mio. I don't think it will quite get there, but it's going to be very ugly... -900k is my guess.
--
"Jas are there more SAY enties in India...what a scam wow!"
crispy&cole,
You bet! One is the largest (or very close) bank -- ICICI -- run by a mucho macho Crook. His model is John Chambers of Cisco, easily the biggest financial fraudster in America. Poor sharecroppers have lost more than $500B since the peak in March 2000. The Crook still has the job and has never even been questioned about his leadership.
Smart Indians in America saw the scam and took it to India. There was lot of copying of America all over the world but nowhere more than in India.
Why would -700k jobs tank the market?
Eric | 01.07.09 - 8:49 am | #
Consensus expectations per Breifing.com are -475K along with a 7.0% Ue rate. Higher UE, less income => less demand => yet more UE then add in lower tax revenues etc.
Consensus expectations per Breifing.com are -475K along with a 7.0% Ue rate. Higher UE, less income => less demand => yet more UE then add in lower tax revenues etc. Dirk | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:52 am | #
Thanks Dirk..... I knew that, I was just being snarky because I'm short and bitter.
"Mr. Raju said Wednesday that 50.4 billion rupees, or $1.04 billion, of the 53.6 billion rupees in cash and bank loans the company listed in assets for its second quarter, which ended in September, were nonexistent."
I believe a squeeze is now in the works with silver. I watch several things to form this conclusion, but mainly the silver bullion ETF, SLV.
SLV owns the world's largest above ground silver stocks, 218 million ounces. If you wanted to squeeze silver, you would acquire as many shares of SLV as you could.
SLV began trading on 4/28/06. Prior to Dec 5, more than a million shares had traded hands on just two days, both in August of 2008. Since Dec 5, average daily trading vol has been 1.47 million. A million shares have traded hands every day except just before and after Christmas, 2 million shares 5 times, and nearly 3 million shares on Monday.
SLV has traded at a premium to NAV for five straight days and a very rare 4% over NAV in three of the last four days. Over these days, silver hasn't moved much in price.
Silver futures are trading in a way that indicate technical backwardation could happen any day. As we've discussed before, this is very rare and would portend flight from currency and toward PMs.
The site Vaporize Comex has documented that about half the silver bullion held by Comex to meet physical deliveries was claimed in December.
You can buy SLV to profit, but as I've said you would make more money in a silver squeeze on the pure leveraged silver stock, SLW.
Just sayin...
P.S. At a Christmas party, I talked to a commodities trader at a big firm and suggested silver could be squeezed. He said: "No, impossible, because the CFTC watches things like this like a hawk and would smash anyone who tried."
Sue (Capital S) writes:
Lucifer and Jas, re: women, have you not been paying attention?
Sue,
You're point is well taken. My wife is brilliant, hard-working, and well-educated. I want her, as well as my two daughters, to advance as far as their abilities & personal goals take them.
However, certain guys are threatened by intelligent, hard-working females.
Many are secretly afraid of their getting their inner girly-man wounded. Others just come from neolithic cultures & they'll just never get it.
In India, if your wife gets on you nerves, hey, just douse her with kerosene & light--no need for a messy divorce. (I seriously doubt Jas approves of this, but he'll probably argue its merits just to give everyone heartburn.)
rich writes:
I believe a squeeze is now in the works with silver. I watch several things to form this conclusion, but mainly the silver bullion ETF, SLV.
Well, I'm rooting for this. This is me fist pumping, metaphorically shouting Go, go go!
Silly.con Valley Crooks can be counted on. Thanks for making me money, guys (yes, Sue and Samdog, guys dominate the arena of big Crooks; gals only get to be crookettes).
Do we need a Doctor to state the obvious? Apparently.
I would like to see an analysis of the substantial default liability for auto financing. Are there statistics that show how far people are behind in their payments, how many people have defaulted on their car loans, the trending of repos? Similar to what CR shows for housing, but instead, for autos. Also, credit cards. That is another substantial liability. This is why this thing is like a tsunami. The water's still out, the giant waves are gathering steam and are heading our way. Recovery in 09, or 10, my ass. Recovery, my ass.
Putin orders halt in gas supplies to Ukraine
Russia's Putin orders a full halt to Russian natural gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine
Wednesday January 7, 2009, 9:06 am EST Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
" Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next."
... By contrast, the current problems for the auto sector resulted from the broad collapse in overall consumer spending.
I'm skeptical how the stimulus package will affect overall consumer spending. Obviously, the bridges-to-nowhere spending, however inefficiently, will pump some money into GDP.
But, psychologically, conspicuous consumption may not be cool anymore, regardless of disposable income. The gig is up on our free market system and that takes a lot of the fun out of things.
Besides, who came up with the idea that consumers won't buy from a bankrupted pig but will buy from an insolvent pig supported by government?
" Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next." Shibbo | 01.07.09 - 9:19 am | #
That's great news for the market.... they can't register, so the unemployment numbers remain low.
If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim squirrels must be shot in the head;
The head shot piece is certainly correct, but a shotgun is a near-total waste of time. Squirrels are best harvested with a .22, low-velocity solids if possible.
I miss the days when .22 bolt actions chambered a short, long and long rifle cartridge. The short was no louder than a capgun and was perfectly adequate for squirrel, rabbit, etc.
--
Oh-Mamma! is forecasting a trillion dollar deficit. You can count on him to exceed his forecast.
We know the two biggest morons in America who took the top job at the worst possible time -- Ben Shalom Bernanke and Barack Hussein Obama. How do we find these morons? That is what I like to understand.
jas dont shout too much.those white jewish women are excelling in special cirumstances.it is not otherwise possible.
The current environment is just not suitable for a man to do anything.Where is the need to prove you are strong,you can protect from enemies or defeat wild animals?The whole society is pussified.Women must excel in this environment( hey even gays excell in this type of culture).
I am not saying women are good or bad competitors,they are best at their abilities(I am not denying role of women in shaping societies we also have ahilyabai holkar,laxmibai,razia sultans).But the role nature have given to women is so sensitive and intensive,a functioning society just cant ignore it.America and western society has ignored it and now paying the price.
Sounds like those folks crashing the unemployment servers are doing a good job generating some work for themselves. Perhaps if they start to smash and burn some houses they can get some construction work, or insurance claims work.
I don't know about bearded ben, but Obama seems to be a Manchurian Candidate. He has a similar background to Clinton, i.e. lack of a father figure. His rise from relative obscurity is intriguing.
As go the car manufacturers, so go the dealerships. The town I live in has the only three car dealerships in the entire county, and they are hurting. They are not moving any cars. I think the dominoes are starting to fall.
Men and women are very different. Sue can;'t answer my questions because she would lose her argument.
I also think that there are significant group differences among men and women of various cultures, races and ethnicity, in general.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:41 am | #
i agree with you jas jain.Men and women are very different.In fact nature is never egalitarian.Nature like differences.Dogs will have different species every 500 kms,monkeys differs from climate to climate.Humans differ after every 1000 kms.
Similarity is never accecepted in nature.Nature likes diversity.
Men and womes are different and yet compatible,thats what nature says.I agree
So is Hugh Hefner, a genuine misogynist. Methodists are no better or worse than most Protestants. But, men are very different in behavior, especially, as it relates to competition, than women. My two biggest heroes are my two grandmothers, both very poor young widows in British India. Women are as important, if not more, than men but they are very different in their abilities relative to men.
So is Hugh Hefner, a genuine misogynist. Methodists are no better or worse than most Protestants. But, men are very different in behavior, especially, as it relates to competition, than women. My two biggest heroes are my two grandmothers, both very poor young widows in British India. Women are as important, if not more, than men but they are very different in their abilities relative to men.
Oh jeez Jas--lighten up, please!
I won't take anymore cheap shots at India...(personally, I think they've come up with the best damn food in the world--and I'm a card-carrying ACF Chef).
"If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim â squirrels must be shot in the head; a body shot renders them impossible to skin or eat. (You want to get rid of the head in any event, as squirrel brains have been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the human form of mad cow disease.)" Uncle Billy, Mental Widget | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:28 am | #
My Grandfather used to hunt squirrel in SE Texas (yes, they ate them... yes, they were poor). According to the family lore, he hunted with a .22 and could pick them off out of the trees with a shot through the head. I agree that a shotgun would yield an inedilble, bloody pulp.
Stay on target.
Stay on target.
Banks trying to cope with rise in bad loans - Chicago Tribune
Banks trying to cope with rise in bad loans (several Chicago area banks are profiled)
St. Louis Fed | Page Not Found
Deficits, Debt and Looming Disaster: Reform of Entitlement Programs May Be the Only Hope
(report from St.Louis Fed)
CR:
Do you think we're going to see YoY sales rises some time in the first 2 quarters due to liquidations? I am not sure how many units are parked inside the supply chain but dealer distress has to be showing here.
The future of cars ?
So December 2008 sales were >25% below sales for any of the four previous Decembers. Not pretty.
Everyone is probably buying the Barack Obama Presidential Coin set which is selling for only 179.95
Dr. Hamilton points out that the sales decline in recent months was very different from earlier in 2008 - CR
The OEMs & their suppliers are really scrambling to understand what's happening too - in autos, appliances, lawn & garden, you name it. In the last six months I've spent way more time & energy trying to get 'demand estimates' & 'forecasts' for the folks I work for than at any time in my previous 25 years. I'm not doing this for my curiosity - they are asking... "WTF is going on out there?" What can you say? "It's a shitstorm... put that in your report to the BOD."
Meetings tomorrow - G'night.
001,
Chris Bangle is the second motherf**ker up against the wall (after Paulson) when I take over. What that douchebag has done to BMW is nothing short of a tragishamockery.
Context over dogma? How about my f**king e30 tire iron over your goddamned head?
Ahem.
Suffice to say, I'm not a fan.
Cheers,
prat
dryfly,
Thanks for your insight. Have fun working tomorrow. Hope you are doing business with some pleasant folks to deal with...
Hoocoodanode?!?
How many millions of cars have been sold in the last five years, probably mainly due to HELOC's? Party's over.
CR,
You should highlight Toyota's sales for December. Among the worst.
Explain that one...
MG
A bit like the anthrax attacks versus 9/11, I worry a bit that the massive oil shock of the past few years will be overlooked as a key component of our current crisis.
It already feels like a fading memory, while the housing/credit crisis gets continued attention.
Re the peak oil vs. speculation argument, I suspect it was some of both, with the final/extreme gains being mostly speculation. I never saw the two explanations as mutually exclusive.
When the global economy (I'm resisting the urge to type "if") regains it's footing, we may face price swings even more extreme than 2008.
prat - don't hit me, man. I'm sensitive.
dryfly writes:
\t"It's a shitstorm... put that in your report to the BOD."
dryfly | 01.07.09 - 1:41 am | #
-----
I think I lived through the Sept->Dec 2008 era, and at this point in the game, I'm not really sure how I will explain it to my children. Credit Markets seized up completely. From that point, liquidity evaporated within days and weeks of the initial blip(s), and from that point on, we discovered that we had 30 foot wide pipes for 1 oz water/minute.
Large Delta of Velocity of Money == System Shock
That's what happens when demand gets pushed forward. Short term greed vs. long term pain. Now we got to figure out how to pay for it all. Never mind the gubmint gonna bail everybody out. Watch out for that cliff below . . .
p.s. - I liked that "context over dogma" line. We could use a little of that around here.
001,
I'm not mad at you. You didn't ruin the perfect car. Bangle did. That's why you live and he dies.
How ya like them dogmas?
prat
Well, OK then -
Toyota in sense represents the crazy oil price swings of 2008: i.e. Tundra vs Prius. Both are getting slammed!
Let us see.. just for fun
//He's probably hot, he's a narcissist.//
Narcissist.. yeah
//Lots of money, convertible sportscar, aviator's leather jacket, expensive hair. Probably early 40s to late 50s, financially successful, spends a lot of time at the gym, white or white-wannabe.//
Attitude.. about right.. money.. maybe in the near future..but age is way off.. try 20 years younger... I was not even born when the last person stepped on the moon.. heck I was born after the last soviet automated sample mission returned lunar samples.
//Probably could not get it up for you.//
I could easily get 2-3 times in an hour with at least 45 minutes of f**king.. I should know.. I pay by the hour..
//Optional secret / fantasy life huffing inhalants and riding the train down at the local men's bath house.//
Sadly no.. being gay would have made my life easier though.. I like my t*ts and a** and c**t and mouth..
//Probably has some other bad habits like aggressive driving, stimulant abuse and weirdly self-destructive tax evasion / financial crime.//
Nah..
//Be glad he is self-isolating. Many of these types marry some doofus-girl who doesn't know what a wretch he is until she finds out she has herpes or that he's lost all the retirement money to his compulsive gambling.//
I would not marry a woman.. what is the point? I want to enjoy life, not live at the mercy of a psychotic aging hag.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 1:03 am |
On auto sales..
Why is a three headed dog hedge fund trying to sell us crappy cars?
lucifer, it was bad enough in the previous thread. Keep it there.
tranches of lint,
That is why I am wondering why cerebrus is making cars.. but BR had to get a reply.
lucifer,
I appreciate your being beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. However, I must point out that I hijacked this thread in order to rail incoherently regarding Chris Bangle. If you are prepared to join in my spittle flecked invective towards his leaden hand upon the fair thigh of our most favored autos then, please, proceed. Otherwise, please, keep it in the previous thread.
First dibs and all that.
Cheers,
prat
cerberus - at least spell the name of your dog right
Ok.. here is relevant question-
Why is cerebrus in the business of making cars?
You might think that this question is strange.. but think about it.. why would anyone in cerebrus think they could run a car making company.. don't you see the problem??
lucifer(Unrated) writes:
but BR had to get a reply.
My grandma,
and your grandma,
was settin' by the fire.
My grandma,
tole your grandma,
I'm gonna set your flag on fire.
Lucifer,
Well, cerberus did have the keen insight to not hire Chris Bangle. Credit where credit is due.
On the other hand, the did buy Chrysler from some sweating germans...
Cheers,
prat
the secret to life is to get more borrowing going... and credit going.. this way we can sell more cars.
lucifer,
Why is our government bailing out and attemping to take over / run a bunch of American corporations?
Same question. It's because they are stupid. They didn't anticipate the current state of the economy.
Ok here is a quick question for car buffs..
Why don't american car manufacturers just copy asian car designs? I mean.. car makers do use the same OEM part makers.
Why not put a say a nissan 350z engine + mechanics (with customization) in a dodge avenger?
lucifer,
Because you would fire a bunch of American's doing the design job and then would lose justification for a bailout?
Why not put a nissan engine in a dodge? Well, that would be just so...wrong.
I think we should burn MBAs. They lead us down this road.
"YLSP writes:
lucifer,
Why is our government bailing out and attemping to take over / run a bunch of American corporations?
"
Besides, isn't there a slight chance that Ford, Chrysler, GM operations in North America survive longer than Triad 3 North American operations? Maybe it really does make sense for Japanese companies continue a losing enterprise such as having plants in the US... especially if those Japanese companies are going to get taxed at higher rates (even if they moved to lower rated states recently?).
I'm not smart and not an inside man so I don't know what I'm talking about.
No.. just change the design a little and call it american. The best US heavy lift rocket launcher family (Atlas 5) has rusian engines (RD-180), but you don't see anyone saying that Atlas 5 is russian.
"lucifer,
Because you would fire a bunch of American's doing the design job and then would lose justification for a bailout?
YLSP | 01.07.09 - 2:14 am | #"
Why would anyone take out a loan to buy a car they don't really like when they know even worse times are coming? Toyota cars used to be know for reliability and economy, now they are as bloated as anything Detroit builds and more expensive to boot. Chrysler used to set trends, but now the only unique cars are either being axed, or homogenized, or priced out of reach for most buyers.
Hell, even BMW and Mercedes Benz are making ugly cars. Why risk more debt now... just to own an ugly car?
The Depression is globally epidemic, so nothing is OT anymore. So...
An article by Jim Jubak at MSNBC, about how Russia's precarious financial economy threatens the world financial system, a la their 1998 defaults, which helped bring down LTCM.
Well, we can always bail them out again, along with everybody else.
Have you guys ever heard of Conrad Zuse.. look at his computer designs (in the 1930-1940s)and compare them both with the equivalent US/ British designs (decimal).
He had the first binary, programmable, 64 bit, rack system/ solid state computer in the 1940s.. in Nazi germany.. ok he used relays instead of transistors.. but his design is much more like all computer designs since the late 1940s.
Nude,
Hyundai can built a V-6 sonanta [2006-2009]in the USA(240 hp, 0-60 in less than 7 seconds, reliability better than honda accord) and sell it for less than 16k new.. and make a profit..
Why??
Because it's made out of old beer cans?
lucifer,
Is it really fair to compare a mass produced item like a car to an item like a rocket motor? Even now I bet Chryler makes more cars in one day than all of the Atlas V's made since that program was started.
I concede your point however... I'm not sure sales of rocket motors are comparable to cars. No one flips out when there is a YoY drop or rise on those... "Oh my god... we sold... 3 more units than last year... 300% up YoY!".
When the media starts making distortions like that, craaaash!
Why is our government bailing out and attemping to take over / run a bunch of American corporations?
Same question. It's because they are stupid. They didn't anticipate the current state of the economy.
YLSP | 01.07.09 - 2:13 am | #
Stupid? Nope, much more insidious than stupid. Plan on schedule. Meeting tomorrow, as someone said earlier. And they know WTF is going on. Also, feel the velocity of money slowing here too.
The solution for automakers is to scale back production by 50% and turn out high quality units for less money; yah do that, and you create greater fucking demand...
YSLP,
The trick is to use a reality distortion field to convince people that the car is American. Not too hard..
A few historical examples
Wehrner von Braun and the American space program.
Conrad Zuse and the Original IBM mainframe concept.
The Russian expat who perfected the implosion system for plutonium bombs
I have to say that in each case the person who did it was well rewarded..
The solution for automakers is to scale back production by 50% and turn out high quality units for less money; yah do that, and you create greater fucking demand...
I thought NAFTA made that illegal?
...use a reality distortion field... do you by any chance know supafly73?
Aiko aiko ahh nay
Steve Jobs could do it..
//...use a reality distortion field... do you by any chance know supafly73?
001 | 01.07.09 - 2:41 am | #//
Do what? Trick Americans into buying American cars with Japanese and Korean engines? Yeah. Maybe he could.
This cannot end well.. 69.6%.. palindromic..and it also my favorite 3 some position with me in the middle.
//69.6% of Beijing residents affected by financial crisis
69.6% of Beijing residents affected by financial crisis - People's Daily Online
69.6% of the respondents said they were "directly affected" by the financial crisis, according to a specialized survey of over 2,000 respondents in 18 districts and counties in Beijing released by the Beijing Social Facts and Public Opinion Survey Center. //
cough.. ford fusion.. cough..
"Do what? Trick Americans into buying American cars with Japanese and Korean engines? Yeah. Maybe he could.
001 | 01.07.09 - 2:49 am | #"
Steve's not sick, just undernourished.
lucifer, please don't take this the wrong way, but do you have any idea how much help you need?
chevy aveo..
chevy cobalt..
saturn vue..
In what respect..
"lucifer, please don't take this the wrong way, but do you have any idea how much help you need?
001 | 01.07.09 - 2:54 am | #"
It's difficult to explain. Something is just not right.
Isn't the 69.6 % figure a bit odd.. I mean what is the chance that the economic downturn would affect exactly 69.6 % of beijing residents (at the time of the survey)? A palindrome..
Tell me something I don't know..
"It's difficult to explain. Something is just not right.
001 | 01.07.09 - 2:56 am | #"
lucifer,
Seems like people here have an intolerance problem sometimes... guess you are one of those lactosy people that make others sick. Per se its not really your problem, but if I got sick because of you I would curse you...
I like Michael Moore. Conversely after Dr Gupta attempted to attack his credibility and was proven woefully wrong on most counts I have a problem with him becoming the SG.
After reading this very well sourced article I feel Obama is again choosing form over substance.
Pam Martens: Doctoring the News
Harvards Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland have published a paper outlining how long the recession will be and what it will entail. Their projections are based on what happened to 22 economies that went through financial crises since 1929.
Conclusions:
Housing downturns last six years so were still at least three years away from bottoming out.
Unemployment increases around 7% after a major financial crisis; hitting its peak four years after the crisis. November jobless numbers 6.7%. That means unemployment will hit at least 13% if thats where you start measuring from. Also this is based on the tweaked unemployment stats which do not include the under-employed or those no longer collecting benefits.
Stock declines last three and a half years and total 55%. If true, that means DJIA would be under 6500 (which is the number I have in our office pool).
Government debt = 86% of GDP - or $12 trillion.
Someone’s finally starting to tell the truth about the “recession” | Blown Mortgage
After reading this very well sourced article I feel Obama is again choosing form over substance.
anon | 01.07.09 - 3:08 am | #
Well, let's get used to it. I doubt much will change over the next four years, including trillion dollar deficits, skyrocketing economic disruption (take your pick in/de), demagoguery from legislative sold out sons of bitches, ad nauseum.
YLSP,
I am the devils advocate.. I am tired of PC crap, popular memes, BS, popular delusions, loss of objectivity etc..
Examples
-Why pretend that our society is not feminized and risk averse.. it is.
-Why pretend money in a fiat currency regimen in real.. it is not.
-Why pretend eating fat rich foods causes obesity.. it does not.
-Why pretend that man made climate change is a big factor in the overall scheme of things.. it is not..
Why pretend..
why not?
I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!
"After reading this very well sourced article I feel Obama is again choosing form over substance."
Because every society that deludes itself get f**ked over, no exceptions!
Widespread loss of objectivity is the often the first symptom of the end of a society
"why not?
Comrade Volker the Viking | 01.07.09 - 3:15 am | #"
Volker,
Everything will change over the next 4 years. I hate I had the audacity to hope and grab for the life line being offered. My tribe is getting smaller and very local.
I have always wondered how our military leadership will allow the country they protect to be destroyed from the inside.
Society as the drive through window with an all female staff accepting monopoly money and needing to look at the register to make simple change. Plus the weather sucks.
Understood lucifer.
I have these moments of internet induced rage. Constant bad news with hundreds of people supporting my negative future world view.
I get up and walk away for awhile, go out and interact with my fellow humans, find a reason to smile and remember I will never get this moment back.
Go do something else for awhile lucifer. Unproductive acute emotional storms only hurt you.
Don't worry, our dear leaders have made sure that our top military leadership is filled with photogenic media savvy yes men who can arrange the best photo ops in the world.
"I have always wondered how our military leadership will allow the country they protect to be destroyed from the inside."
Help
My McMansion is floating:
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
CLALLAM COUNTY...
MASON COUNTY...
PER HOUR WERE OCCURING ACROSS CLALLAM AND MASON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS IN
THE AREA. SMALL STREAMS IN THE AFFECTED AREA WILL RISE RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
LOWLANDS...AND 10 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... WITH THE
RAINIEST SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES RECEIVING UP TO 20 INCHES.
Oh shit!
The PNW is having a doozy of a winter. I live a 100 yds from the Willamette River and have never seen it so high.
Stay safe.
anon,
Have you ever compared the occupation of Japan (post 1945) under MacArthur and our current problems in Iraq?
Why did MacArthur succeed? maybe living half of his life in asia, treating the defeated with dignity and pragmatism might have helped him..
Of course today we do not like people like him.. too egotistic, bad team players, too independent..
Today we prefer people who have no backbone and do what their political masters say.. even if it is suicidal in the long term. If by chance they have any spine, we demote/ fire them..
The Willamette River is prone to periodic floods. The great winter flood of 1861 destroyed several towns, including Linn City, Champoeg, and Scottsburg. The flood of 1894 seems to be the first flood well documented with photographs: one such famous picture depicts men thigh-deep in water in downtown Portland, pointing shotguns at decoy ducks as they float by in the flood waters.
lucifer,
Taking a stand as a man is crucial. Right or wrong you have to pick a side.
The principles you have laid as the bedrock of your soul defines your character. Taking the other side of an argument to prove a point is futile unless you are reflecting who you are as a man. Being polite and well reasoned in presenting the unpopular viewpoint is also a key ingredient in making changes around you.
I understand the posturing and anonymity allowed by the internet and have fallen prey to shouting into the abyss. Only I regret the loss of rationale and control when I am done.
You have dropped some gems of demonstrated intellect. I'll judge you by the comments where your voice was strong and not strident.
I am unable to compare any component of WW II to our present predicament. We stopped being the good guys years ago.
FYI, I made a chart of demand in Ventura County, Ca and then compared it to current supply. Currently 90% of contingent/pendings are below 659k but 44.6% of inventory is above this price.
You can see some charts here:
Effective Demand: Ventura County home buying frustration.
Here is a story for later in the week, i.e, Flooding in WA:
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Seattle
"Currently 90% of contingent/pendings are below 659k but 44.6% of inventory is above this price."
Pre foreclosure, short sales or taking the home off the market for a VERY long time. Horrible to have a home you paid over 659k for and know there isn't a market. Demographics don't lie.
I used to say numbers don't lie but then the NBER sent out one round of lies too many.
Very true anon. Earlier I posted the preliminary numbers of closed sales and REO and Short Sales as a percentage of closed sales.
For both Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley the percentage is hovering around 70%. I perused the remaining 30% for Ventura and a lot of it was either investors, trust & probate sales, vacant properties or relocations.
Here are the charts for the SFV and Ventura County:
Effective Demand: San Fernando Valley foreclosure and short sales contine to climb - December 2008
Effective Demand: Ventura County short sales & foreclosures 70% of closed sales - December 2008
The US domestic car sales chart looks like the MEW chart for those years. Im not surprised.
I feeling a Yugo in our future.
A bit late, but regarding asian engines: in the early 90s a number of Chryslers (Lebarons, Dodge Caravans, Stealth) used a Mitsubishi engine. I'd be surprised if similar re-use is not happening today, and in both directions.
what a surprise, people realizing no one needs a new car!
IMO most new car purchases are impulse rather than need, and people deciding to neglect the depreciation factor which is likely to get larger with new technologies around the corner.
NC, I was just about to say the same thing! A car is transportation. One car looks much the same as the others (can anyone tell me objectively what it means to say that a "coupe is sportier than a sedan? Why? Because it has two doors rather than four? That makes absolutely no sense.) They last for roughly 10-12 years. Then you replace them. I love transportation. I do not take it for granted that I can jump into my transportation and get to a wildlife area on an obscure road at 5 am. The car is just a servant, not a master. That's an essential truth that we discover when times are bad - how easy it is to not buy a new car.
This is off topic but i found it interesting:
New safety rules for children's clothes have stores in a fit - Los Angeles Times
New safety rules for children's clothes have stores in a fit
Barring a reprieve, regulations set to take effect next month could force thousands of clothing retailers and thrift stores to throw away trunkloads of children's clothing.
They'll all have to go to the landfill," said Adele Meyer, executive director of the National Assn. of Resale and Thrift Shops.
Cynthia Broockman, who owns two consignment stores and a thrift shop in Virginia, recently stopped accepting children's products for resale. That raised the ire of a man who was trying to sell his son's castoffs there and had not heard of the new rules.
"I think it's not understood by people how sweeping and far-reaching this is," she said. "The ripples that are going to go forth from this are just astonishing."...
For both Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley the percentage is hovering around 70%. I perused the remaining 30% for Ventura and a lot of it was either investors, trust & probate sales, vacant properties or relocations.
Effective Demand | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 4:09 am | #
I predicted this for Ventura (and San Diego) a few years ago when it was hereasy. Thank you for your efforts tracking the actual data. I'd be particularly interested in finding out how many of all prices are relo transactions. I imagine both Amgen and Countrywide upper tier employees have these clauses in the agreements. It is important as you note to remember VenCo is within 200 or fewer transactions than a practical minimum just due to deaths, divorces, relocations, etc.
I feeling a Yugo in our future.
hong konger | 01.07.09 - 4:36 am | #
If you mean Yugoslavia, then yes, that is a possible future for the US.
Other than the BosWash Corridor most of the nation deep down belives they'd be better off without the rest of the country.
IMO most new car purchases are impulse rather than need, and people deciding to neglect the depreciation factor which is likely to get larger with new technologies around the corner.
NC | 01.07.09 - 5:01 am | #
Yes and no. Interesting factoid, autos with built in nav command no to negative premiums compared to the same vehicle not so encumbered. Technology is advancing too fast for these one more thing to go wrong gadgets to deserve any premium. Then my real point. Residual value is llike any other investment. There's no reason to buy a 2 year old Honda Civic for instance compared to new. The price isn't justified compared to financing, warranty, choice and condition of new. Now a Ridgeline, if 15mpg is your thing is a screaming deal used. If you are a paid subscriber to Consumer Reports tthey have a page of expected depreciation. A 2005 Lexus SC 430 is 62% off MSRP and 75% or more off new equivalent.
....even with a couple teenage boys I had forgotten the love affair with the car. The last time I bought a new vehicle was 15-years ago - and I'll probably be buried in it.
This area (outside of Vegas) seems to be the last stop for many vehicles before a salvage yard. No smog requirements here - anything can be registered - no sales tax charges for registering - so, cars are cheap - DIRT cheap.
This area (outside of Vegas) seems to be the last stop for many vehicles before a salvage yard. No smog requirements here - anything can be registered - no sales tax charges for registering - so, cars are cheap - DIRT cheap.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:09 am | #
Arrived in a $20,000 car and left in a $500,000 bus...
LOL.....most of us locals have done that ONCE. Afterwhich, the only time we stop into casinos is to cash our checks and eat the cheap food....
...mof, one of the reasons I bought this place was to license a hot rod I owned - Cal wouldn't let me drive it on the road. That car got me into more trouble.....well, maybe it was actually the booze that caused the problems...LOL
luciferOk here is a quick question for car buffs..
Why don't American car manufacturers just copy Asian car designs?
That is simple, the Asian and American car manufacturers serve two different markets, which arise out their respective marketing strategy's circa 1970 (forty years ago!)
Ergo, the big three bought into planned obsolescence at the same time the Japanese car makers were trying to overcome public perception that their cars were crap.
This American cars are generally crappier than Asian cars because they are designed to be crappier, because the way you make money with their market segment is by selling a crappy car to your customers every two to five years. Asians make their money by selling less crappy cars to their customers every five to ten years.
So yeah the big three could make better cars, but they would sell less of them and thus make less money.
- Why pretend women are good at math and they could be great mathematicians.. they are not.. maybe a few but nowhere near the % in men.
Um... with mathematics at the high end (and the low end) males are over represented, but don't kid yourself, at the median men and women have about the same ability to understand math. Which is to say, they operate on the level of a poorly trained monkey if that.
...mof, one of the reasons I bought this place was to license a hot rod I owned - Cal wouldn't let me drive it on the road.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:17 am | #
Cal won't let you wipe your butt without an Environmental Impact Report. That's why businesses are fleeing to Vegas and points elsewhere.
Remember a couple months ago as the meltdown started and Congress shut up and looked ashen white after that meeting with the Treasury Sec.
Do you think the future ol' Hank laid out to our representatives was as bad as we are currently experiencing, or might did he have sugar coated it, or maybe he knew all along where we are headed and told them the truth.
2 of 3 could explain that stunned silence coming out of that conference room prior to OKing all that bailout money.
Would be interesting to ask some Congressperson who was there.
"That's why businesses are fleeing to Vegas and points elsewhere."
Yep.....
Would be interesting to ask some Congressperson who was there"
....I'd bet there was something said that we still haven't heard about. But then our legislators are generally like scared dogs AND idiots.
Would be interesting to ask some Congressperson who was there.
gomer | 01.07.09 - 6:33 am | #
Both Sherman and Inhofe confirm that Paulson raised the specter of martial law in a Sept 19th conference call.
....I'd never heard of The Bonus Army before - nor the march - nor the Army killing the civilians.....shameful.
BSR: really? It was in all the papers.
....I didn't read any papers back in 1933.....[eg]
(actually I guess in '32)
..the older I get the dumber I feel....
....I'd never heard of The Bonus Army before - nor the march - nor the Army killing the civilians.....shameful.
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 6:40 am | #
The marches were real, the wikipedia entry not so much. Just keep in mind the cause of the protests was the feeling that WW-I vets were being denied a benefit they thought themselves entitled. Reneging on entitlements where real or imagined is dangerous territory for a government that wishes to remain in power.
....I can very well imagine our beloved FedGov over-reacting......especially then or now....
As a Vet, I realize the FedGov has some serious problems in regards to Veteran's Health & welfare. As an old business owner I also realize that the FedGov is SO INEPT, that it's surprising it's lasted THIS long....
Any folk who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. I read this aphorism many years ago. Took a picture of it. It is chiseled into the edifice of a building in Washington D.C.
Forget which one.
War is a Racket by Smedley Butler who came out and supported The Bonus Army.
2 time Medal of Honor winner.
War Is A Racket, by Major General Smedley Butler, 1935
--
Americanized Indian CROOK Ramalinga Raju of Satyam
He admitted to falsifying records. With a name like Satyam, meaning truth, you can be sure that a liar is at the helm. I have been warning for years that Americanized Crooks and dopes are running India. The whole Indian system is a bad copy of American system imported by Americanized Indian dopes some of whom get the opportunity to become crooks. Just to refresh your memory, Americanized Indian dopes exist to make born-and-bred American dopes look good. And born-and-bred American dopes are pretty bad.
In the Era of Evildoers, begun in America under Greenspan and followed by Bush and Bernanke, Crooks and dopes have multiplied all over the world. India would prove to be the biggest victim of this American inspired era of financial fraud. Only dopes have been bullish on the Indian Scam market in recent years. Hell, we even have a brokerage called India Bulls.
Jas
"I feeling"...
Ooof! The residual value of my grammar is roughly equivalent to that of a Yugo!
Et tu, Brain?
Yeah, but the real courageous actors were the NCO's and others who refused, dropped out.
Smedley is for real, he also broke up an attempted coup against Roosevelt.
....Gen. Butler was a real-life hero. Semper Fi!
--
"Any folk who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. I read this aphorism many years ago. Took a picture of it. It is chiseled into the edifice of a building in Washington D.C. Forget which one."
Comrade Volker the Viking,
In the Age of Propaganda how many people even know anything close to the true history? Both, the quality and quantity of knowledge of history is a serious problem.
IGNORANCE OF HISTORY IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST CAUSE BEHIND BORN-AND-BRED AMERICAN DOPES.
The fact that Americans are ignorant of history, more than any other population in the civilized world, is undisputed. You can ask history professors in the US. America is doomed because Americans are doped due to the absence of knowledge of true and DETAILED history. General history is a useless guide.
Jas
Nice post, Rent.......thanx
"You can ask history professors".......how to change a lightbulb and most would give you a puzzled look.
--
"War is a Racket by Smedley Butler who came out and supported The Bonus Army. a time Medal of Honor winner."
tg is a born & bred dope in a,
"War is a Racket" of bankers and financiers in the modern ear. It began with the control of the governments, England first and America later, by the moneybags so that they can wage wars for their profits. Rothschilds became known as geniuses at profiting from wars. Success breeds excess!
Jas
Oh - the text and date of the First Amendment came from wikipedia - must mean that it isn't worth reading.
If I recall correctly, money first intervened against politics in the Congress Of Vienna (1814?). We've been going down hill ever sense.
Make that since, duh!
--
Ross,
Power of money has been steadily increasing since late 1600s. The bubbles began forming in England and France in early 1700s.
Jas
--
Lucifer,
PC is just a part of the Age of Propaganda begun in the US some 90 years ago.
Can someone name fields of accomplishments, including cooking, where women have excelled?
Jas
RTO, in the few narrow fields where I may claim real competence, I generally find encyclopedia (or wikipedia) articles and abstracts only fair to poor, with a few exceptions. And this with no regard to the lovely CVs the authors no doubt rightly claim for themselves.
The overall sharpness of your personal observations here left me wholly unprepared for such an aggressive defense of online encyclopedia entries.
What gives?
--
Madoff Victims were experts are ignoring warning signs.
Genuine born-and-bred dopes.
Jas
--
More on Indian crooks...
There are lots of locally bred crooks in India, especially political crooks, but Americanized Crooks were considered kosher, or better. Made in America label has a cachet in India.
Jas
What's with the misogynist/populist sprayfest?
Must be children's hour.
wikipedia is only middling at best, no question.
But it beats basically all the school texts of American history we grew up over the last 50 years, at least in elementary/high school.
There are people here who write about active military on American soil as if it is some gigantic and unthinkable plot. Actually, the use of the military in various civil contexts isn't really that unusual, or even all that far in the past. Though not quite parallel, Reagan attempted to use military air traffic controllers as strikebreakers, for example (the 'attempted' is because military air traffic controllers were completely unsuited to perform the job in basically all cases).
Checking facts is important, and when the facts are in error, one should concede the point, or at least explain why the error occurred - which may mean that the source of the 'facts' is inaccurate. wikipedia is very open to challenge - and anyone can do so. Though that process can be flawed, it does exist.
But simply claiming something is prima facie inaccurate because it is found in wikipedia is a cheap form of argument. Refuting/correcting wikipedia? Can be seen as advancing the state of human knowledge (or a waste of time, in the eyes of others). Simply claiming that something found in wikipedia, especially knowledge that some may find disquieting or disturbing to their comfortable world view, can be dismissed without in turn providing any references, is at best lazy, at worst actively dishonest.
MacArthur's, Patton's, and Eisenhower's role (notice which of two famed Republican military commanders became president in 1952) in the Bonus March are not exactly obscure. Why do you think MacArthur spent years stationed outside of the continental U.S. afterwards? It wasn't a reward.
--
Dopes work from scripts. They are extremely predictable in their responses.
Jas
Lucifer and Jas, re: women, have you not been paying attention? Remember how many millennia women were barred from most everything but the home. The trend is a friend to women - they are outpacing men in most professions and are in general "drawing even - or ahead " in measures of health, education, sports, authority. Already it feels as though you two have fallen behind, that you are waving your arms and shouting, "look at me, look at me, I'm still back here." Rational men and women have moved on. But, as consolation, you (Lucifer, I think it was you), still have your 400 bimbos. Whatever.
"Gen. Butler was a real-life hero. Semper Fi!"
Black Star Ranch | 01.07.09 - 7:13
I'll toss Chesty in along Butler.
Hathcock has also been a hero of mine ever since I heard of his exploits...
Chris
Why do you think MacArthur spent years stationed outside of the continental U.S. afterwards? It wasn't a reward.
rent_to_own | 01.07.09 - 8:10 am | #
Wah? Lemmesee, commander in Phillipines, shared power during war with Nimitz, ruled as military governor of Japan, implemented modern Japanese state, commanded in Korea...
I would have fired him too if I were Truman.
But punishment for role in Bonus caper? I'm inclined to doubt it absent any record otherwise.
Truman once met with Marcos and as they passed a photo of Mac Truman said, "And of course you know thisman, he's God."
Marcos replied, " To mnay people in my country he is."
of course that pesky spelling impediment gets in the way as well.
Just another historical tidbit -
'Patton and the Bonus March of 1932
One of the first federal officers to arrive in Washington, D.C., was Major George S. Patton. His cavalry troops met up with infantry at the Ellipse, near the White House. Patton and the federal troops, equipped with gas masks, bayonets and sabers, marched up Pennsylvania Avenue, firing gas grenades and charging and subduing the angry crowd. Later that night, Patton and the federal troops cleared out the marchers' camp in Anacostia, with some tents and shacks catching fire in the process. By the following morning, most marchers had left Washington, but the incident left bitter memories and affected Patton deeply. He called it the "most distasteful form of service" and later wrote several papers on how federal troops could restore order quickly with the least possible bloodshed.'
Meet Amazing Americans
Interesting note about Patton - wonder if anyone still reads any of his papers on the subject of quelling disorder with federal troops? After all, they would be a couple of generations old at this point. On the other hand, Patton was a very forward thinking military figure.
ADP -693
It'll spark a rally soon enough, after these pesky bears get done selling.
ADP employment number -693K, their numbers have been consistently to high (not negative enough) in recent months, although they say they have changed their methodology a bit to narrrow the differences. Could be very ugly on Friday.
Here you go, you glorious anti-intellectual bastardos. (The "o" takes the edge off, doesn't it?)
"If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim squirrels must be shot in the head; a body shot renders them impossible to skin or eat. (You want to get rid of the head in any event, as squirrel brains have been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the human form of mad cow disease.)"
Saving A Squirrel By Eating One - NY Times
(courtesy Gawker.com)
Well, perhaps you will grant that wiki entries are frequently a reflection of the most widely-held opinions in any given subject area. Surely the events in D.C. aren't really so easily or tidily described, nor virtue and the high ground quite so exclusively delineated? I can't claim the necessary familiarity, but antecedent probabilities and some familiarity with human behavior in the aggregate tell me there's more - possibly much more - of interest in source documents, journals, collected letters.
As to RD, he's so often delivered, for me at least, the unexpected and sardonic 'take' on topics, that I tend to look for his posts.
Berenson used to talk of history as 'the agreed-upon lie', and admired the Chinese proclivity for producing annals and not histories, that is, to make an effort to relate what happened without attempting to touch upon why. He'd have loved Reuters headline writers. ;0)
Hathcock has also been a hero of mine ever since I heard of his exploits...
Cobradriver | 01.07.09 - 8:13 am | #
Agree 100%.
Semper fi.
Rent_to_own,
have you read of this recently published book on Patton's death?
"Controversial General Patton was murdered to cover up secret deal between U.S. and U.S.S.R., new book claims
By Barry Wigmore
Last updated at 1:18 AM on 22nd December 2008
George Patton, the most successful American general in the Second World War, was murdered on the orders of the U.S. Army top brass, a book has alleged. Patton was threatening to shame U.S. leaders by revealing a secret deal between America and the Soviet Union that cost 19,000 GI lives, it is claimed.
Military historian Robert Wilcox spent ten years investigating Patton's death on December 21, 1945 - 63 years ago yesterday - following a car crash in Mannheim, Germany, 12 days earlier."
Controversial General Patton was murdered to cover up secret deal between U.S. and U.S.S.R., new book claims | Mail Online
.
--
Sue,
Your response is totally predictable and so is your bias. There are more women in college than men in America for a long time now, no?
SO, PLEASE DON'T KEEP HARPING ON THE HISTORICAL DISADVANTAGE. PLEASE LIST FIELDS WHERE WOMEN HAVE EXCELLED COMPARED TO MEN.
We do know areas where blacks excel over whites, dont we?
Why have white Jews excelled over white Christians, both men and women, for soooooooooo long and the advantage has only been kept growing?
Why are white Jewish women doing better than white Christian men in economic and political competition? I hope that as a seeming feminist it is not a news to you.
Only interested in observable facts and not your excuses,
Jas
"Off Topic Shlock "
I like the pseudonym - excuse me if that's actually on your birth certificate.
Jas are there more SAY enties in India...what a scam wow!
ADP -693k wow!
All the reports from three states where the Unemployment phone and websites going down due to too many applicants were very true...ugly
I think on Friday we can officially say ZERO jobs were created under the Bush reig
Patton kept unit integrity and command structure of German POW's intact. He said they would be needed for what was coming. Of course, he explained that they were cutting and stockpiling firewood for the coming winter as well as other civil duties.
-693k private sector jobs lost in Dec.
Good call, bearly!
Let's tank this market.
"Military historian Robert Wilcox spent ten years investigating Patton's death on December 21, 1945 - 63 years ago yesterday - following a car crash in Mannheim, Germany, 12 days earlier."
The story is in the Daily Mail. No sources other than the author of the book. No evidence that the paper tried to investigate.
ADP revised their methodology to produce a more negative number, but -700k is what a few models were spitting out. Wait for the Jan.09 number that gets released in Feb. Jan is the only month of the year the BLS birth/death plug is significantly negative. We're having a pool on whether the number hits -1mio. I don't think it will quite get there, but it's going to be very ugly... -900k is my guess.
SAY down 90% pre-market...what a scam
The Indian experiment is over!
--
"Jas are there more SAY enties in India...what a scam wow!"
crispy&cole,
You bet! One is the largest (or very close) bank -- ICICI -- run by a mucho macho Crook. His model is John Chambers of Cisco, easily the biggest financial fraudster in America. Poor sharecroppers have lost more than $500B since the peak in March 2000. The Crook still has the job and has never even been questioned about his leadership.
Smart Indians in America saw the scam and took it to India. There was lot of copying of America all over the world but nowhere more than in India.
Jas
Satyam Computer Services Ltd (SAY) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money
one year chart of SAY
-693k private sector jobs lost in Dec.
Good call, bearly!
Let's tank this market.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:40 am | #
Why would -700k jobs tank the market?
Why would -700k jobs tank the market?
Eric | 01.07.09 - 8:49 am | #
Consensus expectations per Breifing.com are -475K along with a 7.0% Ue rate. Higher UE, less income => less demand => yet more UE then add in lower tax revenues etc.
"Why would -700k jobs tank the market?"
Tanking the market would require a great shock. This is not it.
Consensus expectations per Breifing.com are -475K along with a 7.0% Ue rate. Higher UE, less income => less demand => yet more UE then add in lower tax revenues etc.
Dirk | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:52 am | #
Thanks Dirk..... I knew that, I was just being snarky because I'm short and bitter.
Re Satyam...
"Mr. Raju said Wednesday that 50.4 billion rupees, or $1.04 billion, of the 53.6 billion rupees in cash and bank loans the company listed in assets for its second quarter, which ended in September, were nonexistent."
Holy shit.
Kaun banega crorepati?
Futures already filled in half the gap.
I believe a squeeze is now in the works with silver. I watch several things to form this conclusion, but mainly the silver bullion ETF, SLV.
SLV owns the world's largest above ground silver stocks, 218 million ounces. If you wanted to squeeze silver, you would acquire as many shares of SLV as you could.
SLV began trading on 4/28/06. Prior to Dec 5, more than a million shares had traded hands on just two days, both in August of 2008. Since Dec 5, average daily trading vol has been 1.47 million. A million shares have traded hands every day except just before and after Christmas, 2 million shares 5 times, and nearly 3 million shares on Monday.
SLV has traded at a premium to NAV for five straight days and a very rare 4% over NAV in three of the last four days. Over these days, silver hasn't moved much in price.
Silver futures are trading in a way that indicate technical backwardation could happen any day. As we've discussed before, this is very rare and would portend flight from currency and toward PMs.
The site Vaporize Comex has documented that about half the silver bullion held by Comex to meet physical deliveries was claimed in December.
You can buy SLV to profit, but as I've said you would make more money in a silver squeeze on the pure leveraged silver stock, SLW.
Just sayin...
P.S. At a Christmas party, I talked to a commodities trader at a big firm and suggested silver could be squeezed. He said: "No, impossible, because the CFTC watches things like this like a hawk and would smash anyone who tried."
But the CFTC has no jurisdiction over SLV.
Sue (Capital S) writes:
Lucifer and Jas, re: women, have you not been paying attention?
Sue,
You're point is well taken. My wife is brilliant, hard-working, and well-educated. I want her, as well as my two daughters, to advance as far as their abilities & personal goals take them.
However, certain guys are threatened by intelligent, hard-working females.
Many are secretly afraid of their getting their inner girly-man wounded. Others just come from neolithic cultures & they'll just never get it.
In India, if your wife gets on you nerves, hey, just douse her with kerosene & light--no need for a messy divorce. (I seriously doubt Jas approves of this, but he'll probably argue its merits just to give everyone heartburn.)
Bride Burning in India kills or maims thousands of women every year! « 22MOON.COM
After you've cleaned up the ashes, you can marry your dog!:
unbelieveable stuff: Man in India Marries Dog
As for 'Lucifer,' would you expect anything less from the 'Prince of Darkness'?
__
"Demand forward" says it all. They sold too many cars yesterday.
Unfortunately, our government now sees the solution as: taxes forward.
Jeez, we are going to see some ugly times ahead.
rich writes:
I believe a squeeze is now in the works with silver. I watch several things to form this conclusion, but mainly the silver bullion ETF, SLV.
Well, I'm rooting for this. This is me fist pumping, metaphorically shouting Go, go go!
What can you say about naked shorts in SLV?
--
"Holy shit. Kaun banega crorepati?"
mal,
Unholy cow shit! You should have seen the CNBC feature on Raju, his two sons and his charitable projects. I knew then that the guy looks like a Crook.
It is easy to identify Crooks and dopes. It is lot harder to identify the honest and the smart.
Jas
--
Intel warns!
Silly.con Valley Crooks can be counted on. Thanks for making me money, guys (yes, Sue and Samdog, guys dominate the arena of big Crooks; gals only get to be crookettes).
Jas
This jobs number will mean the 700,000 loss on Friday is baked in, thus the market will rally.
FD: I'm 50% cash, 15% short, 10% gold/miners, the rest energy/health.
Gen. Butler was a real-life hero. Semper Fi!
He really was. When I learned of him, I instantly realized just how institutional war profiteering really is. It might as well be in the Constitution.
Shopping center vacancies...
U.S. Shopping Mall Vacancies Reach 10-Year High as Stores Fail - Bloomberg.com
Not really news to most here...just sayin.
Every real estate 'investor' in India is either a Lawrence Yun or a David Lereah.
Do we need a Doctor to state the obvious? Apparently.
I would like to see an analysis of the substantial default liability for auto financing. Are there statistics that show how far people are behind in their payments, how many people have defaulted on their car loans, the trending of repos? Similar to what CR shows for housing, but instead, for autos. Also, credit cards. That is another substantial liability. This is why this thing is like a tsunami. The water's still out, the giant waves are gathering steam and are heading our way. Recovery in 09, or 10, my ass. Recovery, my ass.
Putin orders halt in gas supplies to Ukraine
Russia's Putin orders a full halt to Russian natural gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine
Wednesday January 7, 2009, 9:06 am EST
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
--
Home prices declining at the fastest rate in years
The YoY Price Change as per Radar Logic PPSF data:
SanFran,\t-36%
LasVegas,\t-33%
Phoenix,\t-33%
LosAngeles,\t-29%
SanDiego,\t-29%
SanJose,\t-28%
Miami \t-26%
Tampa,\t-21%
25 Composite (the US) \t-21%
Chicago,\t-15%
Seattle \t-12%
Jas
the giant waves are gathering steam and are heading our way. Recovery in 09, or 10, my ass. Recovery, my ass.
Morocco Bama | 01.07.09 - 9:17 am | #
And the weather at the now larger beach ain't so nice neither!
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Anyone see this?
" Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next."
Mr.Raju of the now infamous Satyam came on cnbc and did a straightface lie about their prospects a few years back.
What a pokerface, would hate to play poker with a guy like that.
... By contrast, the current problems for the auto sector resulted from the broad collapse in overall consumer spending.
I'm skeptical how the stimulus package will affect overall consumer spending. Obviously, the bridges-to-nowhere spending, however inefficiently, will pump some money into GDP.
But, psychologically, conspicuous consumption may not be cool anymore, regardless of disposable income. The gig is up on our free market system and that takes a lot of the fun out of things.
Besides, who came up with the idea that consumers won't buy from a bankrupted pig but will buy from an insolvent pig supported by government?
Jas,
Speaking of crooks, I wonder if you could enlighten us regarding this headline:
"Dikshit Among Forbes Biggest Billionaire Blowups"
Dikshit Among Forbes Biggest Billionaire Blowups | Gambling911.com
Is 'DikShit' a common name in India? If so, why?
" Electronic unemployment filing systems have crashed in at least three states in recent days amid an unprecedented crush of thousands of newly jobless Americans seeking benefits, and other states were adjusting their systems to avoid being next."
Shibbo | 01.07.09 - 9:19 am | #
That's great news for the market.... they can't register, so the unemployment numbers remain low.
Widespread loss of objectivity is the often the first symptom of the end of a society
lucifer | 01.07.09 - 3:18 am | #
Man, I was leary of you before this post but you're spot on with this statement. Keep it coming.
Private-sector employers shed 693,000 jobs in December
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090107/bs_nm/us_usa_economy;_ylt=Ag.vIL4x5dKd01z3F1CaQhvv5rEF
ouch.
Anyone have a good estimate of the latest P/E for the S&P?
If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim squirrels must be shot in the head;
The head shot piece is certainly correct, but a shotgun is a near-total waste of time. Squirrels are best harvested with a .22, low-velocity solids if possible.
I miss the days when .22 bolt actions chambered a short, long and long rifle cartridge. The short was no louder than a capgun and was perfectly adequate for squirrel, rabbit, etc.
$48 per BR's website
--
Oh-Mamma! is forecasting a trillion dollar deficit. You can count on him to exceed his forecast.
We know the two biggest morons in America who took the top job at the worst possible time -- Ben Shalom Bernanke and Barack Hussein Obama. How do we find these morons? That is what I like to understand.
Jas
crispy&cole:
Thanks.
Satyam Computer Services Ltd (NYSE:SAY) - Satyam admits to fraud; cash balances inflated by INR50.40 bn.
Satyam Computer Services Ltd (NYSE:SAY) - Satyam admits to fraud; cash balances inflated by INR50.40 bn. Free research report. | ResearchOracle.com
I'm still waiting for similar statements from BAC, C, GM, F, et al...
Interesting Times:
How true.
It somehow feels like the big one is just around the corner.
jas dont shout too much.those white jewish women are excelling in special cirumstances.it is not otherwise possible.
The current environment is just not suitable for a man to do anything.Where is the need to prove you are strong,you can protect from enemies or defeat wild animals?The whole society is pussified.Women must excel in this environment( hey even gays excell in this type of culture).
I am not saying women are good or bad competitors,they are best at their abilities(I am not denying role of women in shaping societies we also have ahilyabai holkar,laxmibai,razia sultans).But the role nature have given to women is so sensitive and intensive,a functioning society just cant ignore it.America and western society has ignored it and now paying the price.
--
"Is 'DikShit' a common name in India? If so, why?"
Samdog,
Yes. It is a Brahmin name meaning knowledgeable, or well-read (close).
How about Made-off? With dopes money!
Jas
Why would -700k jobs tank the market?
Eric
I weep for your puts Eric...
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:34 am | #
Touché.
Uh oh, Haloscan near-meltdown.
I just got pages and pages of machine code gibberish returned:
ÍoÉNR/1äÐíhÓÄöI`9zeæÞøZô¢©¥áIìhHCHxÑî9Ä ÓÂKOÏnú¸øþËø¿Á_þ"ÌpÔk^QÜâÍìîH÷È 1Bâ½Äëh³ýÇ~a
(...just a sample.)
This is notwithstanding the fact that Saytam shares are also listed in the U.S. and its auditors are PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Sucks to be Price today.
Sounds like those folks crashing the unemployment servers are doing a good job generating some work for themselves. Perhaps if they start to smash and burn some houses they can get some construction work, or insurance claims work.
How do we find these morons?
I don't know about bearded ben, but Obama seems to be a Manchurian Candidate. He has a similar background to Clinton, i.e. lack of a father figure. His rise from relative obscurity is intriguing.
Jas,
Not me--I'm Methodist...
Accounting firms are similar to Ratings agencies.
They are complicit.
[Deficits, Debt and Looming Disaster: Reform of Entitlement Programs May Be the Only Hope
(report from St.Louis Fed)
FFDIC]
Nice FFDIC ! Well, Fair Economist may disagree with the StL Fed. She thinks NOW is the time for universal socialized medicine! LOL!
--
Anon,
Men and women are very different. Sue can;'t answer my questions because she would lose her argument.
I also think that there are significant group differences among men and women of various cultures, races and ethnicity, in general.
Jas
funny, this place used to be logical.
As go the car manufacturers, so go the dealerships. The town I live in has the only three car dealerships in the entire county, and they are hurting. They are not moving any cars. I think the dominoes are starting to fall.
and tanta is going to come after some of you with some very mean bunny slippers. oo.
Gee, Dr. Hamilton must be a genius to see the obvious.
Jas Jain writes:
Anon,
Men and women are very different. Sue can;'t answer my questions because she would lose her argument.
I also think that there are significant group differences among men and women of various cultures, races and ethnicity, in general.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 9:41 am | #
i agree with you jas jain.Men and women are very different.In fact nature is never egalitarian.Nature like differences.Dogs will have different species every 500 kms,monkeys differs from climate to climate.Humans differ after every 1000 kms.
Similarity is never accecepted in nature.Nature likes diversity.
Men and womes are different and yet compatible,thats what nature says.I agree
Jas Jain writes:
"Is 'DikShit' a common name in India? If so, why?"
Samdog,
Yes. It is a Brahmin name meaning knowledgeable or well read
__
Jas,
"Dikshit Among Forbes Biggest Billionaire Blowups"
... I guess this Dikshit must've been reading the wrong info...
--
"Jas, Not me--I'm Methodist..."
Samdog,
So is Hugh Hefner, a genuine misogynist. Methodists are no better or worse than most Protestants. But, men are very different in behavior, especially, as it relates to competition, than women. My two biggest heroes are my two grandmothers, both very poor young widows in British India. Women are as important, if not more, than men but they are very different in their abilities relative to men.
Jas
--
"funny, this place used to be logical."
scav,
You are "funnying," right?
Jas
Anon, Jas:
"Men and womes are different and yet compatible,thats what nature says.I agree"
It's the old 'yin-yang'--opposite yet integral ...
I will return to MacArthur and Japan occupation issue.
"Have you ever compared the occupation of Japan (post 1945) under MacArthur and our current problems in Iraq?
Why did MacArthur succeed?"
Simple. The russians had occupied the Japan's northest isle. The japanese choice was be nice to US "barbarians" or be commies.
Same with Western Germany. They don't wanted be Eastern Germany.
I don't believe that you forget the commies....
Jas Jain writes:
"Jas, Not me--I'm Methodist..."
Samdog,
So is Hugh Hefner, a genuine misogynist. Methodists are no better or worse than most Protestants. But, men are very different in behavior, especially, as it relates to competition, than women. My two biggest heroes are my two grandmothers, both very poor young widows in British India. Women are as important, if not more, than men but they are very different in their abilities relative to men.
Oh jeez Jas--lighten up, please!
I won't take anymore cheap shots at India...(personally, I think they've come up with the best damn food in the world--and I'm a card-carrying ACF Chef).
__
ah, just commenting on the aerosolized spittle factor recently.
scav writes:
funny, this place used to be logical.
__
It's not a 'logic' issue--it's inability to stay focused and on-topic.
Pass the Ritalin, please...
"Private-sector employers shed 693,000 jobs in December
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found us_usa_economy;_ylt=Ag.vIL4x5dKd01z3F1CaQhvv5rEF
ouch."
Not to worry. The shovels have been ordered and the dirt fields are being prepared.
They are extremely predictable in their responses.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:10 am | #
As are you... does that make you a dope?
"If you want to grab your shotgun, make sure you have very good aim â squirrels must be shot in the head; a body shot renders them impossible to skin or eat. (You want to get rid of the head in any event, as squirrel brains have been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, the human form of mad cow disease.)"
Uncle Billy, Mental Widget | Homepage | 01.07.09 - 8:28 am | #
My Grandfather used to hunt squirrel in SE Texas (yes, they ate them... yes, they were poor). According to the family lore, he hunted with a .22 and could pick them off out of the trees with a shot through the head. I agree that a shotgun would yield an inedilble, bloody pulp.
samdog
i dont hate india,i am an indian.Just sad they were able to spoil such a beautiful country.
jas and anon are both Indian? Ahhhhh...
May I ask a question? (waiting patiently with hand raised)
How can you tell when a Gov. Treasury auction hasn't done well? What are the things that stand out?
The gardener thanx you in advance.....
Thank you Professor Hamilton for a BGO (Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious). Wow.
BSR - so is lucifer/sata